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      schrieb am 06.12.00 10:58:29
      Beitrag Nr. 1 ()
      First Union Securities Covers CMRC
      By: First Union Securities
      12/4/00 8:29:00 AM

      REAFFIRMING AGGRESSIVE STRONG BUY STANCE ON CMRC SHARES
      Commerce One (CMRC–OTC)

      PRICE: $28 7/8
      52-WEEK RANGE: $165–$29

      KEY POINTS

      -- Current valuation implies upside of greater than 60% and limited downside, in our opinion.

      -- Expecting license revenue acceleration from megaexchange deals closings in Q400 and Q101.

      -- CMRC in the two spots of high demand; indirect procurement and private exchanges.

      -- Expected network revenue acceleration in Q400 and Q101 as additional exchanges go live and ramp the number of transactions

      -- Channel checks reveal good work at Covisint and strong SAP relationship with a solid joint product, thoughtful product design.

      -- Reaffirm Strong Buy rating based on projected revenue momentum in 4Q00 and 1Q01 and relative valuation.

      -- Our target price of $130 is based on 30x our 2001 revenue estimate

      DISCUSSION

      We are reaffirming our Strong Buy rating on CMRC shares based on valuation and the prospects for especially strong revenue momentum over the next two quarters. We highlight the following key points:

      -- Our fundamental analysis shows a “base case” value for this stock from $50 to $75. Our most conservative discounted future earnings analysis assumes a conservative top line growth rate of 50% from 2002 until 2005, a terminal operating margin of 15% and a 50x price-to-earnings multiple discounted back at 20%. We do not believe that CMRC shares will trade at parity to their growth rate, but even so we arrive at a value of $50 based on this analysis. Our discounted cash flow and EVA analysis arrives at results ranging from $65 to $75 range with a terminal value of 8x revenues, in line with current comparables. Base on our analysis, it is our belief that in the most recent market downdraft, CMRC shares have been oversold and represent a superior opportunity for risk oriented investors.

      Why are we bullish on this stock in the midst of the current difficult market. We believe that financial results for CMRC will be ahead of investor expectations over the next two quarters due to:

      -- Expected license revenue acceleration from megaexchange deals closings in Q400 and Q101. We see an additional $50 - $60 million in revenue from Q3 agreements to power six additional megaexchanges. The duo of Commerce One and SAPMarkets won megaexchange business at Enporion (energy), eHITEX (high tech), ForestExpress (paper products), Quadrem (mining and metals) and two other as yet unannounced exchanges in Q3. However, no revenue was recognized or booked as deferred revenue in Q3. Therefore, we expect Commerce One to recognize an additional $50 - $60 million of license revenue over the next several quarters, and roughly $15 million in the current quarter.

      -- CMRC in the two spots of high demand; indirect procurement and private exchanges. We believe that CMRC is the best positioned company to take advantage of two trends in the marketplace that will continue to evolve into 2001: indirect procurement and private exchanges.

      Phase IA: Indirect procurement. Indirect procurement provides immediate ROI for companies that purchase the software and requires a low level of integration. Our channel checks have indicated that demand remains strong for this solution and we note that CMRC’s network revenues are derived from activity in indirect procurement.

      Phase IB: Private Exchanges. CMRC already manages on of the most successful private exchanges, GM Tradeexchange and its partnership with SAP should yield greater penetration into this phase of B2B where corporations are creating ebusiness application platforms that get their own house in order and bring their trading partners online.

      Phase II: The direct goods market. We believe that with the SAP relationship, CMRC is the best competitive position to attack both the indirect and direct markets. Our checks with industry consultants indicatethat the SAP supply chain management product is robust but poorly marketed, an aspect that may change with the new CMRC relationship. Counter to industry comments, the joint effort appears to be strong and should surprise skeptical investors. Finally, we hear that CMRC is doing an excellent job and Covisint relative to other vendors leading to a great referenceable client when this exchange goes live. Through the SAP relationship, we believe that CMRC is well positioned to take advantage of the transition from indirect to direct goods, capturing strong revenue growth through the transition phases.

      Additional channel checks reveal that CMRC has spent time creating content engine that could yield to market share gains over next 12 months. A consultant working on a competing implementation noted that a lack of integration at this competitor contrasted with CMRC’s solid foundation and the ease of implementation at CMRC versus competitors.

      -- Expected network revenue acceleration as additional exchanges go live and ramp the number of transactions. Commerce One increased its number of marketplace customers to 107 in Q3 from 72 in Q2. Of the 47 marketplaces that were live at the end of Q3, less than 20% contributed to Q3 network revenue of $10.1 million. We believe this presents a significant opportunity and network revenue will accelerate dramatically over the next several quarters. We estimate network revenue will grow to $120+ million by Q4 2001, or 15% of total revenue and eventually drive 40% of total revenue by 2003.

      INVESTMENT OPINION

      We believe that the current valuation provides compelling risk/reward characteristics for risk oriented investors. While we do not expose catching falling knives, we believe that the valuations we are deriving from our conservative forecasts capture the reduced downside risk and strong potential upside appreciation in these shares over time. We believe that this quarter and next will provide investors with reaffirming confidence that CMRC is benefiting from its strong competitive position. Our target price of $130 is based on 30x our 2001 revenue estimate and is based on more aggressive assumptions than the base case exposed above.

      Additional information is available upon request.

      First Union Securities, Inc. maintains a market in the common stock of CMRC.

      This is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments mentioned. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity they deal with, or the entity that has distributed this report to them. The information has been obtained or derived from sources believed by us to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this information constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. First Union Securities, Inc. (“FUSI”), or its affiliates may provide advice or may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. FUSI is a subsidiary of First Union Corporation and is a member of the NYSE, NASD and SIPC. Copyright © 2000 First Union Securities, Inc. FUSI is a separate and distinct entity from its affiliated banks and thrifts.SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED • NOT BANK-GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE
      Avatar
      schrieb am 06.12.00 11:52:51
      Beitrag Nr. 2 ()
      Commerce ONE-Infopage:
      http://www.moneymile.de/istocks/aregister_u.php3?id=CMRC
      - Kurse, Charts und Researchdaten auf einer Seite -
      Avatar
      schrieb am 06.12.00 13:50:28
      Beitrag Nr. 3 ()
      Leider nicht immer up to date.


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