AKTIEN - CRASH : Oelpreis wird explodieren ! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[M-B-S]

http://www.geologie.tu-clausthal.de/Campbell/vortrag.html

Dies steht fest !

Lest selbst !

[Börsen-Mario]

Clausthaler! *würg*

[Hohlkoeppe]

Bist ja richtig gebildet.-Hast Du denn auch
Deine Energiesklaven ???

[Gildenkölsch]

also,hab das mal ganz oberflächlich überflogen....

Ich stimme dir vollkommen zu, daß wir völlig ineffizient mir energie umgehen, und daß es so nich weitergehen kann.

Jedoch sind sind Prognosen über die reichweite der Erdölvorräte (leider) Makulatur, da sie grundsätzlich nur diejenigen erfassen, die in absehbarer Zeit wirtschaftlich erschließbar sind. Diese Messlatte verschiebt sich jedoch laufend in Abhängigkeit vom Ölpreis. Dies hat zur Folge, daß bei deutlich anziehenden Ölpreisen sich automatisch die Reichweite verlängert, da einerseits der Verbrauch gezügelt wird, andererseits bisher unrentable Vorkommen wirtschaftlich auszubeuten sind.

Wie gesagt, ich bin der Überzeugung, daß wir radikal umsteuern müssen; ein Auto kann auch mit 3-4 Litern fahren... nur leider wird die Realität anders aussehen....man wird sich nur soweit bewegen - sprich - umsteuern, wie unbedingt nötig...und das wird ein Prozess der kommenden Jahrzehnte...trotzdem werden natürlich regenerative Energien (Plambeck) aufgrund politischer rahmenbedingungen scho jetzt stark profitieren...

Alsjute,
GK

[Neonjaeger]

Wie heißt es so schön: Not macht erfinderisch
Wenn das Öl alle ist, kommt was neues. Wasserstoff, erneuerbare energie, Energie sparen, vielleicht Silizium. Niemand braucht Angst zuhaben, wieder ohne seine Energiesklaven leben zu müssen.
Der Pessimist sieht nur : Das Öl ist alle und steckt den Kopf in den Sand
Der Optimist sieht die vielen neuen Möglichkeiten auch und gerade an der Börse.
Also keine Panik, wir werden auch das Ende des Öls Überleben

[cabinda]

wissenschaftler der wacker chemie haben offenbar eine methode entwickelt, energie aus sand zu gewinnen. und sand gibts bekanntlich wie ...
hat jemand das stern-titel-thema kürzlich gelesen? interessant fand ich das schon. aber wirtschaft und politik werden von lobbyisten bestimmt. mal sehen, wie lange noch.

grüsse

[igor1]

sand
oooo nnnnnnnneeeeeeee
sand kaufen?????????????
XETRA oder FRANKFURT

[cabinda]

@igor1

sorry, kein tipp! wacker chemie ist an der börse leider so gar nicht präsent...(zwar ag, aber nirgends infos).

grüsse

[appendix75]

Absoluter Blödsinn ! Klingt wie das schlecht erarbeitete Referat eines 10. Klasse Schülers ! Fakt ist, daß die Erdölvorkommen noch mindestens 100 Jahre reichen !!! Erst vor kurzem wurden in Rußland weitere enorm ergiebige Vorkommen entdeckt - glaube doch nicht jeden Mist den Du irgendwo liest !!!

Ich wette eine gute Flasche Wein ( Barolo ? ), daß wir in den nächsten 6 Monaten Barrelpreise um die 18 Euro oder tiefer sehen !!!!!!!!

[M-B-S]

US puts oil case to OPEC

Talks aimed at averting a drastic change in world oil production -- and the knock-on effect to global economies -- have taken place in Vienna.

The secretary-general of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting States OPEC, Ali Rodriguez, met the American Energy Secretary, Bill Richardson, who is concerned about the prospect of a cut in oil output.

Most members of OPEC are pressing for a cut of up to two-million barrels a day worldwide after prices of crude oil fell by about a third in recent months. OPEC says an automatic cut of half-a-million barrels a day is almost inevitable. Mr Richardson told a news conference after the meeting that Washington felt that some kind of oil price stability was being reached -- he did not want to see it adversely affected by precipitous action.

Mr Rodriguez confirmed that OPEC would take America`s views into account when deciding output levels. It is due to consider output quotas at a special meeting on January 17.

From the newsroom of the BBC World Service OIL MINISTER: OPEC CUTTING PRODUCTION TO BOOST PRICES

Associated Press
January 7, 2001
KUWAIT -- Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to cut production by 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day to boost prices, Kuwait`s oil minister said Saturday.

The state-run Kuwait News Agency quoted Sheik Saud Al Sabah as saying Ali Rodriguez, secretary general of the cartel, informed him of the consensus among OPEC`s members.

In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, a Saudi official said there were extensive contacts between OPEC member countries to reduce production.

"Production will be decreased by between 1.5 million and 2 million barrels a day, with the likely figure to be 1.7 million," the official said.

He said this week will bring further talks among member states, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi recently held talks with Rodriguez and Venezuelan Oil Minister Alvaro Silva Calderon, the official said.

Iran`s OPEC governor, Hussein Kazempour Ardebili, was quoted Saturday as suggesting OPEC could decide on cuts of as much as 3 million barrels a day in coming months, beginning with its Jan. 17 meeting in Vienna.

"If OPEC decides to cut production by 1.5 million barrels on Jan. 17, then there will be every possibility that it would again institute cuts by another 1.5 million barrels in the second quarter of the current year," Ardebili was quoted as saying in comments published Saturday by the daily Aftab Yazd.

"However, if it decides to reduce production by 2 million barrels in the wake of the January meeting, then OPEC`s production would drop [again] by another 1 million barrels at the beginning of the spring," he added.

OPEC has increased production four times during the past year, totaling 3.7 million barrels, to bring prices down from more than $30 a barrel. OPEC countries produce 26.7 million barrels a day, or 40 percent of the world`s oil.

A mild European winter and replenished crude inventories prompted a drop in excess of 25 percent in international oil prices in the past month. But prices have climbed in recent days.

Die Wette 18$ halte ich !

[M-B-S]

The Global Hubbert Peak
Forecast of Future Global Oil Output


Hab schon gewonnen ! Wetten !

[KMS]

UMWELT, WISSENSCHAFT, TECHNIK Dienstag, 19. Dezember 2000

Bayern Seite V2/11 / Deutschland Seite V2/11 / München Seite V2/11

Kassandra-Rufe in Öl

Petrobranche mogelte bei neuen Funden

„Wir finden heute nur ein Barrel Erdöl für vier, die wir konsumieren“, sagte John Collin Campbell bei einem Vortrag an der Universität Clausthal. In fünf Jahren werde der Höhepunkt der Ölproduktion erreicht. Dann hielten Ressourcen und Förderung nicht mehr mit der Nachfrage Schritt. Eine Preisexplosion sei die Folge, Ökonomen befürchteten einen Zusammenbruch des Aktienmarktes.

Der Mahner ist nicht irgendwer: Campbell gilt als weltweit anerkannter Experte, der sowohl als Geologe als auch im Management bei vielen Ölfirmen gearbeitet hat. Der Engländer warnt seit Jahren vor einem abrupten Ende des Erdölzeitalters – und wird deshalb „Kassandra“ der Ölbranche genannt. Seine Prognose ist noch pessimistischer als die anderer Geologen, die den Höhepunkt der Ölförderung erst in 20 Jahren erwarten (SZ vom 19.9.2000). Grund für die Differenz: Studien zur Reichweite der Reserven liegen viele Parameter zugrunde, etwa Druck und Temperatur in den Lagerstätten oder die Konsistenz des Öls. Diese sind dynamische Größen und schwer zu schätzen, so die Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe in Hannover.

Campbell geht noch einen Schritt weiter. Er wirft den Firmen nun vor, sie hätten – „aus einem Bündel guter ökonomischer und regulatorischer Gründe“ – bei der Einschätzung neu entdeckter Erdölfunde systematisch untertrieben, und die Mengen später nach oben korrigiert. So sei irrtümlich der Eindruck erweckt worden, es werde immer mehr Erdöl entdeckt. Dabei habe man bestehende Lagerstätten nur neu bewertet. Dies würde bei Prognosen zu wenig berücksichtigt. Unterstützung erhält er von Wolfgang Blendinger von der Universität Clausthal. Der Inhaber der einzigen Professur für Erdölforschung in Deutschland sieht Prognosen über das Ende des Erdölzeitalters kritisch, „weil sich bekannte Daten nur schwer für die Zukunft interpretieren lassen“. Campbells Berechnungen hält er aber für „sehr plausibel“. Man sollte sie ernst nehmen, um rechtzeitig die Weichen für die Zeit zu stellen, in der Öl Mangelware sein wird.

ajh

Mehr Informationen sowie der Vortrag Campbells im Wortlaut: www.sueddeutsche.de/wissenschaft

[M-B-S]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[M-B-S]

Hoppla !

Da ist was mit reingerutscht !

CU

[M-B-S]

Opec proposes output cuts, but US disapproves


VIENNA
OPEC oil exporters are agreed on the need to reduce crude supplies but will consider the United States’ view that production best be left unchanged before oil ministers make a decision at their January 17 conference.

Opec secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said on Sunday, ‘‘For the time being there is a consensus to cut but how much we don’t know.’’ Rodriguez, the former Venezuelan oil minister, was addressing a press conference after an hour-long meeting with US energy secretary Bill Richardson.

‘‘Now we’re going to consider the opinion of the United States. We have to analyse all factors and after that analysis we’re going to take the decision,’’ Rodriguez said.

Richardson travelled to Vienna in a bid to convince Opec’s chief administrator that the cartel risks sparking a new rise in oil prices after a recent slump brought the crude market down to a level that is acceptable to Washington.

‘‘Some type of cut I assume is going to be contemplated. Our view is to keep production at constant levels. We would like to see no production cuts but we recognise that there are realities,’’ Richardson said.

‘‘The United States feels we are starting to reach some kind of price stability. Any precipitous action to cut production would have adverse consequences,’’ he added. Washington is worried about the impact of high oil prices for the vulnerable US economy, which already is thought to be in slowdown partly as a result of last year’s increase in energy costs.

Richardson last year lobbied heavily for a series of Opec supply hikes which saw the cartel add 3.7m barrels daily to production. The extra oil fed depleted world inventories and helped send prices down from a peak of $35 a barrel in October for North Sea Brent to $25 last week.

Rodriguez said world oil supplies between April and September of last year ran at an average of two million barrels a day above demand. ‘‘From September until the end of last year there was an oversupply of about 1.4m barrels a day,’’ he added.

Those estimates of oversupply are in line with the sort of volumes that many Opec members believe should now be subtracted from current output for 10 members with quotas of 26.7m barrels daily.

Kuwaiti oil minister Sheik Saud Nasser al-Sabah was quoted by the official Kuwait news agency on Saturday saying that he understood from Rodriguez that there was a consensus for a cut of between 1.5-2m bpd. That is the reduction favoured by Kuwait.

But Rodriguez told reporters in Vienna that there was no common view yet on the size of the cut. Last week an official from Saudi Arabia, Opec’s most influential producer, said Riyadh saw an emerging consensus for a cut of 1.5m. Richardson said Opec should not be considering lower supply because stocks remained low by historical standards. — Reuters

CU

[M-B-S]

Der Weltenergierat geht davon aus, dass bei gleichbleibenden Energieverbräuchen in 43 Jahren das Erdöl zu Ende ist. Und was dann?

Der Energieexperte des Ludwig-Bölkow-Instituts in München, Dr. Werner Zittel: "Die Tatsache, dass weder die OPEC - noch die Nicht-OPEC-Staaten ihre Produktion trotz anhaltender Krise merklich ausweiten, legt den Verdacht nahe, dass sie dazu nicht in der Lage sind. Alles deutet darauf hin, dass das Produktionsmaximum bereits erreicht, wenn nicht schon überschritten wurde. Während die Ölkonzerne stillschweigend reduzieren oder ihr Image wie BP von "British Petroleum" auf "Beyond petrol" ( jenseits von Öl) ändern, bauen sie neue Geschäftsfelder auf: BP ist heute der weltweit größte Solarzellenproduzent. Shell hat inzwischen den neuen Kerngeschäftsbereich "Shell Renewables" eingerichtet.

Im wesentlichen sind die größten Erdölfelder entdeckt. Angeblich gigantische neue Funde wie vor der Küste Angolas reichen, um zehn Tage Weltenergiebedarf zu decken.

Es gibt nur eine Lösung des Energie- und Klimaproblems: Der möglichst rasche Umstieg auf erneuerbare Energien. Die Propheten des "ewigen Öls" wirken nur noch lächerlich im Angesicht der Probleme und der Fakten. Realistischer ist eine Studie der zweitgrößten Bank Kanadas CIBC. Sie warnt vor steigenden Ölpreisen um bis zu 50 Prozent in den nächsten drei bis vier Jahren. OPEC-Präsident Ali Rodrigez selbst meint, die Welt müsse sich auf eine Erdölkrise einstellen. Die Wirtschaft der ganzen Welt wird davon betroffen sein. Profitieren vom nächsten Ölpreis-Schock werden wieder die erneuerbaren Energien. Sie allein sind unendlich vorhanden, umweltfreundlich und werden immer preiswerter.

Der erste Schritt zur Überwindung einer Krise ist das Anerkennen der Fakten. Nur dann finden wir einen Fluchtweg aus dem Treibhaus.


CU

[Börsenanalyst]

Natürlich werden die Ressourcen immer knapper und auf langfristige Sicht,
der Ölpreis logischerweise zunehmend steigen wird.
Es werden aber immer wieder neue Ölquellen gefunden, nur, dass diese
auch irgendwann mal erschöpft sind.

Ganz klar, dass alternative bwz. erneubare Energiequellen.
Ich hoffe, dass das die Großmächte verstehen und auch umsetzen werden.

Börsenanalyst

[M-B-S]

Richardson To Meet OPEC Ministers
The Associated Press, Wed 10 Jan 2001 Email this story to a friend
Print this story
WASHINGTON (AP) — Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, only days from leaving office, will travel to the Persian Gulf this weekend to try persuading a number of OPEC ministers to keep oil production close to current levels.

Richardson will meet with oil ministers in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and may meet with several other ministers from OPEC countries elsewhere, administration officials said.

The latest round of oil diplomacy, directed by President Clinton, is aimed at trying keep the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries from slashing oil production when the ministers meet Jan. 17 in Vienna.

``The message I will deliver is that it`s important that there not be precipitous cuts in production,`` Richardson said Wednesday. ``We hope there`s moderation in production cuts.``

With oil prices declining in recent months, it has been widely expected that OPEC would cut production by about 1.5 million barrels a day, or about 5 percent. OPEC countries produce about 40 percent of the world`s oil.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheik Saudi Al Sabah said last weekend that there was ``a near consensus`` among OPEC`s 11 members to trim production by at least 1.5 million barrels. Some OPEC members were pushing for even deeper reductions.

Energy analysts said the market already has taken into account the expectation of some production cuts, causing oil prices to rebound somewhat in recent days. The spot price for the benchmark West Texas Intermediary crude was $28.28 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The administration is resigned to OPEC announcing some production cutbacks, but Richardson will be trying to persuade the moderate OPEC members — such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait — to keep the cuts modest.

OPEC has boosted oil production by 3.7 million barrels over the past year, erasing the supply problems that caused priced to soar to about $35 a barrel last summer.

``The U.S. would like to see production at constant levels until stocks have recovered, but we know that OPEC is going to contemplate some kind of cut,`` Richardson said earlier this week after he met with Venezuelan oil minister Ali Rodriguez in Vienna.

Rodriguez recently took over as OPEC secretary general.

The United States also would like to get some assurance that moderate OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, will boost production if Iraq exacerbates the effect of any OPEC action by holding back oil.

Iraq for a time last month halted much of its daily 2.3 million barrel exports of crude because of a dispute over pricing. The Iraqi action had little impact on prices because there was plenty of supply. If OPEC makes it cuts, that may no longer be the case, however.

Richardson embarked on a similar diplomatic tour in early 2000 during which he argued strongly that OPEC should boost production or face the risk of a worldwide economic downturn fueled by high energy prices.

The OPEC countries followed with a series of production increases. At the same time OPEC ministers said they wanted the price of OPEC oil to stay within a range of $22 to $28 a barrel.

In recent months OPEC prices, which are several dollars lower than the benchmark West Texas crude, have dipped below the range, prompting OPEC ministers to talk of trimming production.

Fazit : Was will Richardson von den Arabern ?!
Wenn es keine Veknappung gibt ?

[M-B-S]

Mehr : U.S. oil prices jump seven pct as OPEC cuts loom


Updated 3:51 PM ET January 10, 2001
By Bernie Woodall
NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices rocketed almost two dollars Wednesday on word that Saudi Arabia would reduce February crude sales by five percent despite U.S. appeals to the OPEC cartel not to cut oil output too sharply.

February crude futures oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $29.50, up $1.86 a barrel or some seven percent. This takes gains over the last eight trading sessions to more than $3.50 a barrel.

Latest gains came as a London-based oil industry source said that the world`s largest oil producer and exporter, Saudi Arabia this week will inform customers February sales will be cut a half million barrels daily.

Saudi Arabia, which produced about 8.6 million barrels per day (bpd) or 11 percent of worldwide production in December has already said it will back a total OPEC output cut of 1.5 million bpd or around five percent when the cartel meets Jan. 17 in Vienna.

U.S. energy secretary Bill Richardson said Wednesday he will travel to the Middle East in an attempt to convince key oil producers not to cut oil supply too drastically.

"My message is going to be `do not make precipitous cuts,"` Richardson said. "We hope there is moderation in production cuts" at OPEC`s meeting, he told reporters at Energy Department headquarters.

Richardson -- who will leave office on Jan. 20 when George W. Bush is inaugurated as President -- pressured OPEC to hike global supplies by 3.7 million bpd last year after dwindling world fuel stockpiles prompted 10-year price highs.

Growing economic worries both in the United States and abroad are now encouraging OPEC producers to cut back production before prices fall too far, as they bid to avoid a repeat of 1998`s damaging price crash.

Despite the recent recovery, prices are already some nine dollar`s below September`s peak -- which prompted a rare release of crude oil from U.S. strategic stockpiles.

Fueling the gains Wednesday morning the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) weekly report showed a small draw on crude supplies.

The DOE said stocks fell by almost 400,000 barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories, compared with American Petroleum Institute`s slightly higher figure of 600,000 barrels reported Tuesday.

Big news on the energy front Wednesday, although it didn`t directly affect oil and petroleum products prices, was the resignation effective Jan. 18 of James Hoecker, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the five-member independent agency that regulates interstate electricity prices.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers on Tuesday met with California lawmakers in an attempt to find remedies for the state`s electricity supply and pricing crisis.

Hoecker said that California needs federal assistance to solve the crisis.

At about $340 a megawatt hour, wholesale electricity prices in California are almost 10 times what they were a year ago and the state`s two largest utilities have been pushed to the brink of bankruptcy because they are not allowed to pass on the higher prices to consumers, the companies say.

Heating oil futures rose six percent Wednesday to close at 85.30 cents per gallon. Gasoline futures gained seven percent to close at 88.50 cents per gallon.

[M-B-S]

UPDATE 1-U.S. energy secy to lobby OPEC to keep oil output high

January 10, 2001 6:45pm
Source: Reuters


(adds Richardson quotes, more details of trip, closing oil price)

By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson will spend his last days in office on a final lobbying tour of six OPEC countries to convince the cartel members not to make sharp reductions in oil production later this month, the White House said Wednesday.

In addition to visiting his counterparts in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Richardson will also meet with the oil ministers of OPEC members Venezuela, Algeria, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, the White House said.

President Bill Clinton said he asked Richardson to continue his diplomatic efforts with OPEC members to increase world oil stocks and reduce volatility in oil prices.

During his tenure as energy secretary, Richardson has previously lobbied OPEC hard to ramp up production, which he says helped move the cartel to increase world oil supplies by 4 million barrels a day over the last year.

OPEC members will meet next Wednesday again in Vienna, just three days before the new Bush administration takes office. This time around, the cartel is expected to push for a cut in oil output of 1.5 million barrels per day to prevent crude prices from dropping, as the cartel believes oil supply is now way above demand.

U.S. oil prices soared above $29 a barrel Wednesday in New York, rising almost $2, amid word that Saudi Arabia would cut oil exports next month in line with OPEC`s emerging position for an output cut next week.

Richardson`s meetings will take place this weekend in each of the OPEC oil ministers` respective countries, except for Venezuela and Algeria, an Energy Department official said.

Speaking to reporters earlier in the day, Richardson said world oil stocks are still rebuilding and large production cuts should not be made by OPEC at this time.

``My message (to OPEC) is going to be `do not make precipitous cuts`,`` Richardson said.

``We hope there is moderation in production cuts`` at the cartel`s meeting, he added.

Richardson leaves Washington Thursday night to begin his OPEC lobbying tour.

He will stop in Paris Friday to meet representatives of the International Energy Agency to gain support for the U.S. position that OPEC should not make deep cuts in oil production and instead allow low world petroleum inventories to continue to build, the Energy Department official said.

While in Paris, he will meet with Algeria`s oil minister.

Richardson will meet with the Saudi oil minister Saturday, and then the oil ministers of Qatar, Kuwait and UAE Sunday.

He will fly to London Monday to meet with Venezuela`s oil minister, and then return to the United States early Tuesday morning. ^ REUTERS@

Ihr solltet endlich mal die Fakten zur Kenntnis nehmen !

CU

[M-B-S]

Oil heads up as Riyadh cuts crude supplies to Asia

January 11, 2001 2:16am
Source: Reuters


SINGAPORE, Jan 11 (Reuters) - World oil prices continued on an upward track on Thursday with concrete signals OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia is preparing to curb supplies to the market in February.

Several Asian buyers of Saudi crude said they had been told by Riyadh to expect reductions of between 10 and 12 percent to oil liftings next month versus January volumes.

It is the first time since August 2000 that Asian customers have failed to receive full nominated volumes and cements expectations that the OPEC producers` cartel will adopt output cuts at next week`s ministerial meeting.

U.S. benchmark light crude traded up to an early peak at $29.65 a barrel on news of the Saudi curbs to Asian deliveries. At 0643 GMT, prices had eased back to $29.59 to give an 11 cents gain on Wednesday`s $2 rally.

The day-earlier surge was triggered by news that Saudi, the world`s biggest producer, would cut global deliveries next month by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The reduction would be in line with the leading OPEC producer`s one-third share of an overall cartel output cut of 1.5 million bpd.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to agree supply restraints when it meets on January 17 following production increases totalling 3.7 million bpd last year when prices hit 10-year peaks.

Prices tumbled about 30 percent last month largely on worries that supplies will far outstrip demand in the second quarter when peak winter consumption wanes.

The slide set off alarm bells by prompting memories of the 1998 price crash when oil skidded below $10 a barrel because of bloated supplies.

OPEC officials previously have said there was consensus for a cut among the group`s 11 members. Saudi favours a reduction of 1.5 million bpd, while price hawks such as Qatar and Kuwait prefer a bigger two million bpd.

U.S. PLANS LAST-MINUTE OPEC LOBBYING

Two major Japanese refiners, two in South Korea and one in Taiwan told Reuters on Thursday that they had received notice from Riyadh of a reduction in crude volumes next month of between 10 and 12 percent.

``The cut was expected but it`s what we didn`t want,`` one of the buyers said.

Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil supplier to Asia with most refiners across the region from the Indian subcontinent to Japan taking barrels under term contracts.

Asian buyers take at least one-third of Saudi crude exports directly. Saudi crude may also flow into the region via international oil majors, which make up Riyadh`s biggest customers.

With less than one week before OPEC meets, U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson plans to make a whirlwind tour to speak to six members to urge moderation in adjustments to production.

Richardson is to meet counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and Algeria. He says OPEC should hold off any big move and allow depleted world fuel inventories to be replenished.

The United States, the world`s biggest energy guzzler and a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia, used heavy petroleum diplomacy last year to lobby OPEC to raise production to bring down sky-high petroleum prices. ^ REUTERS@

Hallo Oelpreis wieder bei 30$

Keiner merkt es ! Oder wie

[Zimmerer]

Öko -Panikmache!

Wenn die Kältewelle vorbei ist und in USA die Rezessionstendenz - gerade in der verarbeitenden Industrie -klar werden, knallt der Ölpreis wieder auf längere Zeit unter 20 $.
Bekannte Ölreserven steigen seit Jahrzehnten!
Und spätestens dann ist auch wieder innerhalb der OPEC zwietracht, weil die Saudis und andere ja schließlich ungern ihre Industriebeteiligungen leiden sehen wollen.

Always the same game...

[Börsenanalyst]

Nur weil die OPEC die Fördermengen senken will und behauptet der Ölpreis ist
zu billig, explodiert der Kurs schlagartig.

Die Lagerbestände sind noch sehr hoch. Der Ölpreis wird wieder
zurückkommen. Das ist so sicher, wie der Frühling kommt.



Börsenanalyst

[M-B-S]

Richtig ! Die Opec hat "nur" angekündigt die Fördermenge zu senken . Richardson wil verhindern, dass sie es tut !


Wartet mal ab wo der Oelpreis steht wenn sie real senken !


40$ +

Man ist doch Scheich ?! Oder !

Ich halte jede Wette !

[M-B-S]

U.S. tells OPEC to continue production
Energy chief heads for Persian Gulf to deliver message

By H. Josef Hebert / Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, only days from leaving office, will travel to the Persian Gulf this weekend to try persuading a number of OPEC ministers to keep oil production close to current levels.
Richardson will meet with oil ministers in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and may meet with several other ministers from OPEC countries elsewhere, administration officials said.
The latest round of oil diplomacy, directed by President Clinton, is aimed at keeping the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries from slashing oil production when the ministers meet next Wednesday in Vienna.
"The message I will deliver is that it`s important that there not be precipitous cuts in production," Richardson said Wednesday. "We hope there`s moderation in production cuts."
With oil prices declining in recent months, it has been widely expected that OPEC would cut production by about 1.5 million barrels a day, or about 5 percent. OPEC countries produce about 40 percent of the world`s oil.
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheik Saudi Al Sabah said last weekend that there was "a near consensus" among OPEC`s 11 members to trim production by at least 1.5 million barrels.
Energy analysts said the market already has taken into account the expectation of some production cuts, causing oil prices to rebound somewhat in recent days.
The administration is resigned to OPEC announcing some production cutbacks, but Richardson will be trying to persuade the moderate OPEC members to keep the cuts modest.

[M-B-S]

Die Lösung :

http://www.ch2bc.org/indexh.htm

Die Technik ist längst da !

Aber noch wollen es viele nicht akzeptieren !

Also Barrel 50 $

CU

[M-B-S]

11/01/2001 15:08 - (SA)


Oil up as Saudi cuts supplies
Rebecca Harrison


London - World oil prices surged on Thursday as news that Opec heavyweight Saudi Arabia was preparing to slash supplies in February spurred an already buoyant market.

London benchmark Brent blend shot up 43 cents to $25.77 adding to Wednesday`s hefty gains.

US light crude traded up to $29.65 a barrel in electronic trade on news that Saudi was cutting crude allocations to Asian customers, extending Wednesday`s $2 rally by 15 cents.

Several Asian buyers of Saudi crude said they had been told by Riyadh to expect reductions of between 10% and 12% to oil liftings next month versus January volumes.

It is the first time since August 2000 that Asian customers have failed to receive full nominated volumes and this cements expectations that the Opec producers` cartel will cut output at next week`s meeting in Vienna.

[M-B-S]

Oil prices surge as reserves fall in US

By MARK SHENK
SINGAPORE
Friday 12 January 2001


Crude oil prices yesterday retained the strong gains made overnight in New York, where the price soared almost 7 per cent, its biggest one-day gain in three months.

The main contributory factor was an industry report showing that colder-than-normal weather in the United States last week had slashed US heating-oil supplies by 4.6 per cent, leaving them 19 per cent down on the previous year.

That drop, and a smaller decline in crude oil supplies, boosted oil prices which were already rising on expectations of a cut in production by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"A lot us were expecting a rise in heating-oil supplies due to imports from Europe, which didn`t happen," said Marshall Steeves, an energy analyst with Refco Inc in New York.

"There is also a growing feeling that OPEC may cut output by more than previously expected."

Crude oil for February delivery rose $US1.84 a barrel, or 6.7 per cent, to $US29.48 , the highest closing price since December 18. It was the biggest one-day gain since October 12.

Prices have risen 10per cent this month after dropping 21 per cent during December.

US inventories of crude oil, at 288.5 million barrels, are 1.8 per cent lower than at this time last year, according to a report from the American Petroleum Institute.

Crude oil prices rose this month on expectations that the December price slump would lead OPEC to cut production quotas during a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.

Many OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, the world`s biggest producer, have called for cuts of 1.5 million barrels to daily production, or about 5 per cent.

On Wednesday, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said the group should reduce daily production by at least two million barrels, the official Qatari News Agency reported. Qatar is OPEC`s smallest producer.

OPEC`s oil output fell by 1.53 million barrels a day, or 5.2per cent, in December, as a dispute with the United Nations kept Iraq`s output at about half its normal levels, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Production from all 11 OPEC members fell to 27.96 million barrels a day from a revised 29.49million in November, according to the survey of producers, oil companies and analysts.

"Today, there were two main things at work, one being the inventory numbers," said Michael Rothman, an analyst at Merrill Lynch Co in New York. "Plus, we are going into an OPEC meeting with uncertainty about Iraqi supplies, and now some people expect OPEC to cut output by as much as two million barrels."

BLOOMBERGOpec may trigger new inflation fears
Richard Mably


London - Opec producers risk further stifling global economic growth by sparking a rebound in energy costs when oil ministers meet next week to sanction a stiff cut in crude output.

Fretting about a seasonal spring downturn in demand, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is in danger of sending oil prices sailing higher again by taking an axe to supply, market analysts say.

Opec`s plan to slice output by about 1.5 million barrels daily, five percent, has the experts concerned that a much-needed recovery in global inventories could be stopped in its tracks.

That could push prices back towards the $30 level that sets the alarm bells ringing among big petroleum importers like the United States, Germany and Japan.

"Opec`s action increases the exposure of consuming countries to further energy price inflation if projections of a modest economic slowdown turn out to be correct," said US energy consultant Philip Verleger.

"Opec is behaving in a very cohesive manner to protect revenues. They need the money," said Gary Ross of New York consultancy PIRA Energy.

Opec`s most influential producer Saudi Arabia, has made clear that it thinks a 1.5 million bpd reduction is required to stem the slump in oil prices seen since October`s $35 peak.

Riyadh already has started informing customers that deliveries will be lower in February. The move triggered a swift run up in prices on Wednesday which dealers said could be a warning signal for more to come.

"Market micromanagement by Opec has stopped the slump but yesterday`s seven percent jump in US prices was something of a shock," said Peter Gignoux, head of the energy desk at brokers Schroder Salomon Smith Barney.

SAUDI HAS OPEC BACKING

Consuming nations are worried Opec may compound the damage done last year when four successive output additions, totalling 3.7 million bpd, came too late to prevent prices spiking to 10-year highs.

"It`s not that Opec shouldn`t cut production but the timing and the magnitude would be just wrong," said Sarah Emerson of Washington`s Energy Security Analysis.

"The US economy is already so tender. With all the things that have happened to consumer confidence - the blow to stock investments, and the fact that we`re basically in the middle of an energy shock - Opec would be much better off delaying the whole thing a little."

High prices last year prevented any growth in US oil demand, the leanest year for petroleum importers since 1995. The slowdown now threatens the rest of the world.

"I do think the US is looking at a slowdown and I can`t believe it won`t have some impact on our trading partners in Asia and Latin America," said Emerson.

Riyadh will get strong backing from fellow cartel members at Vienna`s January 17 gathering. Price hawks like Kuwait would prefer to take an even bigger slice from output.

Barring a last minute change of heart, Opec`s action is likely to prevent any further recovery in oil stocks during the first quarter.

"If they do cut, say in practice a million barrels a day, and even assuming Iraq back near normal volumes by February there`s likely to be zero stockbuild in the first quarter," said Mike Barry of London`s Energy Market Consultants.

"That would leave inventories not much more than last year`s very low levels."

Maverick Opec producer Iraq, not party to quota restrictions, has made cartel calculations difficult.

Bidding to chip away at United Nations sanctions, Baghdad has cut back UN-monitored supplies sharply since the end of November. There is no guarantee of a quick resumption in its exports.

But delegates say the prevailing cartel view is that it would be foolish to assume a lengthy Iraqi absence.

US SEEMS POWERLESS

Outgoing US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, due this weekend to see half a dozen oil ministers, can provide only weak opposition to the cartel powers.

Saudi Arabia will argue that a rebound in oil prices in the last 10 days is due largely to Riyadh`s early notice of intention of the cuts.

And a basket of cartel crudes still is adrift of Opec`s $25 target. The group`s heavy, sour crudes currently are trading at a $2 discount to Brent and $6 below US light crude futures.

Saudi appears content that its Opec policy will not send prices high enough to damage relations with the incoming US administration of George W Bush.

"I think they understand that a $25 price for the Opec basket is reasonable," said one insider.

[M-B-S]

Brian Whitaker and Charlotte Denny
Friday January 12, 2001

Cuts in oil production, coupled with Iraqi political machination, could drive world energy prices to a new peak, members of Opec were warned yesterday. The cartel of 11 oil-producing countries is expected to agree quota cuts next week in an attempt to reverse the slide in world oil prices, which have dropped by more than $10 (£6.70) a barrel below their peak last autumn. The move comes as the US economy threatens to fall into a recession.
Prices surged yesterday after Saudi Arabia, the world`s biggest producer, said it was preparing to cut February deliveries, hardening the expectation that the cartel will agree a cut of 1.5m barrels at its meeting in Vienna next week.

Qatar, a small producer by comparison, urged Opec to cut output by 2m barrels a day or more.

But the man who masterminded Opec`s dominance of the world economy in the 1970s warned that his successors` calculations were likely to be thrown out of line by President Saddam Hussein`s continuing fight to get the UN to withdraw its sanctions against Iraq.

Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, a former Saudi oil minister, said: "Opec`s cut will be too much unless the Iraqis come back into the picture. If they cut production, prices could go to $30-35 a barrel."

When crude soared above $30 (£19) a barrel in the autumn, the rise in petrol prices brought consumer protests throughout Europe and demands from western capitals for Opec to increase production.

Sheikh Yamani said Opec should wait to see what Iraq decided to do before implementing any production cuts. "If they don`t cut, Iraq will think twice and may come back to the market," he said.

Iraq slashed its production last month, the latest move in its battle with the UN, and is demanding that its customers pay a premium of 40 cents a barrel into an account controlled by the regime, outside the UN`s oil-for-food programme.

The UN sanctions committee threatened to prosecute oil companies if they paid the premium. In protest, Iraq halted oil production, which had been running at 2.3m barrels a day. It resumed production a few days later, but at only 600,000 barrels a day.

Reputable oil companies have refused to pay the premium and are no longer buying Iraqi oil.

"The companies lifting it at present are from the Ukraine, Sudan, South Africa and Malaysia," Sheikh Yamani said. It is not known if they are paying the premium.

He said that if Iraqi production had continued normally there would be a real surplus of oil and production cuts would be necessary next month. "But Iraq`s cuts in December will be felt in the market only in January, because of the time the tankers take to deliver. There is a shortage in the market.

"Saddam Hussein wants to break the embargo and there is a good chance he will succeed. The price will jump ... It can go way above what it was. It depends on how long he will be absent.

"Then the oil companies will come running. They will definitely pay the 40 cents under the table. This is exactly what he wants." He added: "Who will detect the payments?"

Sheikh Yamani said a new rise in prices would not be a problem for Opec. "They`re happy with a high price but, longer term, they will pay very heavily. If I were in the Opec meeting I would say: `Don`t take action until we see what is the Iraqi situation, then take action accordingly`."

Saudi Arabia ought to bring prices down to prevent other suppliers and alternative energy sources undercutting it, he said. "If Saudis looked at their long-term interests, they would definitely bring prices down below $20 a barrel to delay new exploration and to prevent consumption from falling."

[M-B-S]

Wer es immer noch nicht wahr haben will, sollte
sich mal die neue "bild der wissenschaft" 2/2001 lesen !

Titel u.a. :

"Energie Experte:Öl bald knapp - Reserven falsch berechnet"

Inhalt bald unter http://www.bdw.de

CU

[M-B-S]

Crude up as more Opec members back cut


SINGAPORE
OIL PRICES continued to cruise just below $30 a barrel today as more Opec members came out to back output cuts expected to be adopted at next week’s ministerial parley.

US benchmark light crude traded 10 cents up at $29.51 a barrel after profit-takers shaved seven cents off prices on Thursday. Both Iraq and Venezuela put their weight behind production curbs of between 1.5 and two million barrels per day, equivalent to 5.5 per cent of total group production of 26.7 million bpd.

Riyadh informed customers worldwide yesterday to expect lower deliveries in February, signalling the kingdom’s intent that Opec would adopt output restraints at the January 17 policy meeting. Opec believes crude supplies outstrip demand following production hikes last year amounting to 3.7 million bpd.

It fears that prices could take a severe knock in the second quarter when peak winter demand falls. But others are worried any cuts will slow a recovery in depleted world fuel stocks and further stifle global economic growth by sending oil prices back above $30 a barrel where they spent most of last year.

Opec’s four production increases in 2000 came too late to quell last year’s price rally, which sent crude to levels not seen in a decade and fuelled concerns of inflation. — Reuters
Wetten

[M-B-S]

Energy secretary stages last-ditch lobby of OPEC heavies

By STEPHEN VOSS
WASHINGTON
Saturday 13 January 2001

United States Energy Secretary Bill Richardson is to meet six of OPEC`s 11 member nations in the next few days, seeking their help to lower oil prices.

His tour will come just before the the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Vienna on Wednesday to consider authorising its first cut in output quotas in two years.

A cut may reverse a 21 per cent price drop last month and head off building an oil surplus in coming months.

Crude oil futures for February delivery closed in New York yesterday at $US29.41 a barrel.

Prices are 14 per cent higher than a year ago and close to the $US30 level that US officials have long maintained is too high. In September they reached a 10-year high of $US37.80.

Traders said they doubted Mr Richardson`s diplomacy would have much effect, because he would leave office along with President Bill Clinton on January 20.

"Richardson is off to put pressure on OPEC and will come back empty-handed," said Nauman Barakat, vice-president of global energy trading at ABN Amro Inc in New York. "He has no leverage, with President Clinton leaving office so soon."

Earlier this month, on January 7, Mr Richardson met the new OPEC secretary-general and former Venezuelan oil minister Ali Rodriguez in Vienna, where he urged OPEC not to reduce output because oil inventories remained low.

"We would like to see no cuts, but we recognise there are realities, consequences," he told reporters after that meeting.

"Some type of cut, I assume, is going to be contemplated."

In his latest four-day tour, Mr Richardson was due to leave last night for Paris, for meetings with OPEC president and Algerian oil minister Chekib Khalil, according to Department of Energy spokeswoman Jayne Brady.

He will also meet the International Energy Agency, which coordinates energy policy among members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

He will then travel to Saudi Arabia, the world`s largest oil producing nation, for a meeting with oil minister Ali al-Naimi and other Saudi officials.

Tomorrow, Mr Richardson will meet oil ministers from Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and then travel to London for a Monday meeting with Venezuela`s new oil minister, Alvaro Silva.

Michigan Senator Spencer Abraham, President-elect George W. Bush`s choice for energy secretary, will face a confirmation hearing on January 18.

"If Abraham was going, it might be another story," Mr Barakat said.

BLOOMBERG

[M-B-S]

Richardson says U.S. prefers no OPEC output cut


Updated 3:15 AM ET January 14, 2001
ABU DHABI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said on Sunday that Washington preferred that OPEC not cut output at its January meeting, but hoped that any reduction would be modest so as not to harm the world economy.
"The United States feels there should be no production decrease," Richardson said. "But we are realistic and it is important that any cut in January not aggravate the market."

He again called for any output curbs to be "modest," adding: "Our objective is as small a cut as possible... Our strong message is that there should not be steep production cuts at the next OPEC meeting because that will spur a price hike that is unhealthy for the world economy."

He said his meeting in Abu Dhabi with UAE Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri was "very productive," adding: "The minister listened carefully and promised to take all views into account."

Richardson held talks on Saturday with OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia as part of a tour of some oil producers ahead of the cartel`s Vienna meeting on January 17.

[M-B-S]

OPEC cut coming up


OPEC is planning to cut oil production for the first time in almost two years, threatening to keep energy costs high just as economic growth slows.

Aiming to keep oil prices between $US22 and $US28 a barrel, OPEC is expected to decide at a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday to reduce quotas by 1.5 million barrels daily, or 5.4 per cent of December`s output.

If they cut that amount, US oil will average $US27.20 in the first half of 2001, analysts say, close to the year-earlier average of $US28.50 a barrel.

"OPEC is determined to be proactive and avoid a price collapse in the spring," Mr Ramzy Salman, an adviser to the oil minister of Qatar, said. "It`s not a matter of if there will be a cut but by how much. The numbers being considered are 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day."

Slowing US growth and four OPEC output rises in 2000 helped oil prices to decline by a fifth since the end of November, intensifying calls from members for restraint to avoid a further drop.

Divisions within OPEC in the past have prevented the group from acting to prop up prices. Cheating on quotas helped send oil below $US10 a barrel in December 1998. This time, several OPEC states have said there is consensus within the group to cut supply. A reduction would be the first since March 1999.

Bloomberg



40$ up

[oilchange]

Ich verstehe eigentlich nicht wie lange sich die Welt noch von diesem Kartell erpressen läßt. Einerseits hängen die Ölländer alle am Tropf des Westens und andererseits können die Preise machen wie sie wollen.
Ich würde ein Technologieembargo gegen alle Kartellländer verhängen, mal sehen wie lange die das durchhalten.

[M-B-S]

Opec will weniger fördern
KUWAIT/HAMBURG (dpa). Die USA mahnen die Opec-Staaten zu einer nur mäßigen Kürzung bei ihrer Ölförderung. Bei einer zu starken Reduzierung der Produktion fürchten sie negative Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft.

Die Ölförderung der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (Opec) wird nach Angaben der Regierung in Kuwait um mindestens fünf Prozent oder 1,5 Millionen Barrel täglich gekürzt. Das versicherte der Ölminister des arabischen Staates, Scheich Saud Nasser al Saba, einer kuwaitischen Zeitung.

Die Kürzung soll voraussichtlich vom 1. Februar an gelten. Kurz vor dem Besuch des US-Energieministers Bill Richardson sagte der Ölminister, an der vereinbarten Kürzung werde sich nichts ändern. Auf einer Rundreise durch mehrere Ölstaaten versucht Richardson derzeit, eine zu starke Reduzierung der Fördermengen zu verhindern.

Die Ölminister der Opec wollen am Mittwoch in Wien über die Fördermenge entscheiden. Das Ölkartell hatte im vergangenen Jahr die Produktion viermal um insgesamt 3,72 Millionen Barrel (159 Liter) täglich erhöht, um die Preise zu senken. Der Preis war seinerzeit bis auf 35 Dollar (72 DM/37 Euro) je Barrel gestiegen. Die Rohölpreise haben in Erwartung der Förderkürzung wieder angezogen. Rohöl der Sorte Brent zur Lieferung im Februar kostete am Freitagvormittag in London mit 25,84 Dollar 23 Cents mehr als am Vortag. Opec-Öl kostete im Schnitt in der Woche zuvor 22,84 Dollar. Die Opec strebt eine Bandbreite von 22 bis 28 Dollar an.

In Saudi-Arabien hatte Richardson am Samstag gesagt, er hoffe, dass die Opec nur eine "begrenzte`` Kürzung vornehmen werde. Eine Zusage dafür erhielt er in Riad aber nicht. Jede drastische Drosselung würde nach seiner Auffassung auf die Weltwirtschaft und die Stabilität des Ölmarkts negative Auswirkungen haben. Ein Preis von 25 Dollar je Barrel wäre ein akzeptabler Durchschnitt.

Der Chef der Deutschen Shell, Pieter Berkhout, erwartet im laufenden Jahr stark schwankende Öl- und Benzinpreise. Der Tageszeitung ,,Die Welt`` sagte Berkhout, im Jahresdurchschnitt rechne er mit einem Ölpreis von 25 Dollar je Barrel.
18$ ade

Wette gewonnen !

[M-B-S]

U.S. Fears OPEC Production Cut
Associated Press
January 15, 2001

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — With OPEC expected to agree on Wednesday on a production cut of at least 1.5 million barrels a day, the U.S. energy secretary said rumored production cuts of 2-3 million barrels a day would be too much.

``Our data shows that production cuts of 2 million to 3 million per day as some are suggesting will be unhealthy and will (cause) prices to rise,`` Secretary Bill Richardson said late Saturday while touring the Persian Gulf to try to persuade oil producers to keep a lid on prices.

Richardson arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday and was also scheduled to visit Qatar and Kuwait.

Richardson said Saudi Arabia promised to consider the U.S. concerns and told him no decision would be made before leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet Wednesday in Vienna.

``Just as the American administration was looking out for its own interests as a consuming country, we too are looking for our own interests as producing nations,`` Obaid bin al-Nasseri, Richardson`s counterpart in Dubai, said after their meeting. ``Oil prices decreased last month by 30 percent, which caused concern for producers.``

In Venezuela on Sunday, President Hugo Chavez said ``the (production) cut is coming ... to bring back fair prices.`` Chavez said $30 a barrel is a ``fair`` price for crude . Since taking office in February 1999, Chavez has spearheaded the process to unify the 11-member oil cartel.

For his part, Richardson is trying to persuade producing countries to keep the price of oil at about $25 to $28 a barrel, which he called ``the ideal price for producers and consumers.``

Oil prices have been on the rise following reports that OPEC might cut production. On Friday, light sweet crude oil rose 64 cents to $30.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, the price of Brent crude rose 14 cents a barrel to $25.75.

OPEC`s Secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said Friday that OPEC estimates current excess supply in the market at about 1.4 million barrels a day. OPEC, which produces about 40 percent of the world`s oil, is concerned that replenished inventories will coincide with warm weather in consumer countries in the second quarter, lowering demand and triggering a price crash.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheik Saud Al Sabah reiterated in an interview published in Kuwait Sunday that his country wants a production cut of 1.5 million barrels a day.

``We welcome the visit of the American secretary,`` Sheik Saud, who was to meet with Richardson later Sunday, told Al-Anba daily. ``However, we already have an agreement to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day.``

[M-B-S]

Zweitgrößtes Kanadisches Bankhaus warnt vor steigenden Ölpreisen
(10.10.2000)
Die zweitgrößte kanadische und achtgrößte nordamerikanische Bank Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) ist der Aufassung, daß die Welt dabei ist, das Produktionsmaximum von Erdöl zu erreichen. Die Analysten vermuten, daß der Ölpreis im Jahr 2001 auf etwa $ 40 und innerhalb der kommenden drei bis vier Jahre auf etwa $50 ansteigen werde. Zwar sei die Wirtschaft heute 30 - 35 % weniger vom Öl abhängig als vor 20 Jahren, doch müsse sie in den kommenden zehn Jahren um weitere 30 % unabhängiger werden.

Eine Analyse der Bank kommt zu der Einschätzung, daß in den kommenden zehn Jahren Produktionskapazitäten mit etwa 50 Millionen Barrel Tagesproduktion neu angeschlossen werden müßten, um den Produktionsrückgang aus bestehenden Ölfeldern wenigstens auszugleichen. Die Weltproduktionskapazität beträgt heute ungefähr 77 Millionen Barrel Tagesproduktion. (Analyse siehe: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/Or28.pdf )
Ein Artikel hierzu in Ottawa Citizen vom 6. Oktober 2000 (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/001006/4643011.html )

[SHAREMonster]

Die meldung ist schon alt !!!! Neu ist aber das am Sonntag bei der OPEC beschlossen wurde die Oelförderung drastisch zu kürzen !!!!

[django]

Ihr habt ne Kleingkeit vergessen. Ganz unwesentlich. Völlig irrelevant.

Öl als Hauptenergieträger wird in absehbarer Zeit ausgedient haben. Da macht Euch mal keine Sorgen. Das wird den Wohlstand nicht beenden. Der Hund liegt ganz woanders begraben, und zwar in der Petrochemie. Die gesamte Polymerchemie ("Plastik" in allen seinen Abarten) und 80% der der pharmazeutischen Chemie sind unabdingbar an die Petrochemie gekoppelt.
Das bedeuted, daß ein Erschöpfen der Ölreserven nicht nur zu steigenden Energiepreisen führt (was ich gar nicht als sooo dramatisch erachte, denn heute wird so viel Energie sinnlos verpulvert (Autos mit 500PS, Leuchtreklame mit 100qm Fläche etc...), daß es der Menschheit nur gut täte da mal was auf den Deckel zu kriegen), sondern, daß dann auch eine Plastiktüte 10DM kostet, ein Partybesteck mehr als ein metallenes Campinggeschirr usw. Habt Ihr mal überlegt was heute alles aus Kunsstoff ist und was passieren würde, wenn das alles aus Holz, Metall o.ä. wäre bzw. hergestellt werden müßte??

Wenn das eintritt, dann geht`s mit dem Wohlstand bergab. Aber das werden m.E.n. unsere Enkel noch nicht erleben.

mfG

[M-B-S]

Opec presses ahead with oil cuts

Special report: the petrol war

Financial staff
Monday January 15, 2001

Opec, the oil exporters` cartel, is expected to press ahead with hefty cuts in crude oil production at its summit in Vienna this week, despite a last minute tour of the Gulf states by US energy secretary Bill Richardson.
Kuwait`s oil minister, Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah, who is regarded as price "hawk" within the 11-member cartel, was quoted over the weekend as saying that an output cut of at least 1.5m barrels per day was now "agreed".

Mr Richardson held meetings in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates yesterday after a visit on Saturday to Saudi Arabia, where he said that although the Americans anticipated some cuts "we believe that it is important that they are not steep cuts".

Washington would be happy with an oil price of around $25 (£16.90) per barrel, but traders have already pushed market prices back above $30 per barrel for the first time since early December in anticipation of action by Opec. Late on Friday, the February futures price for crude jumped 64 cents to $30.05 in New York, a rise of 12% so far this year. In London, the spot price for Brent crude ended the week at $25.78 per barrel.

"Our strong message is that there should not be steep production cuts at the next Opec meeting because that will spur a price hike that is unhealthy for the world economy," Mr Richardson said. His plea coincided with comments from the former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Yamani, who warned this weekend that aggressive action by Opec was likely to push the US deep into recession.

The sheikh has claimed that Saudi Arabia alone has already taken steps to cut its production by 500,000 bpd and that these measures, coinciding with a suspension of Iraqi exports, will lead to a sharp spike in the price in the second half of January.

Some Opec ministers, who meet on Wednesday, have argued that production cuts of between 2m and 3m bpd are necessary to avoid a sharp decline in oil prices.


Die Meute hat Blut geleckt ( 35$ ) das Barrel , es kann

doch noch ein bischen mehr sein oder ?!

CU

[Börsenanalyst]

Verbreitet keine Panik!!!
Der Ölpreis wird nicht weiter explodieren. Nach der Sitzung der OPEC wird es vielleicht nochmal
bißchen steigen, aber danach wird der Ölpreis wieder rückläufig sein!!!


Börsenanalyst

[M-B-S]

Venezuelan President Says OPEC to Cut Oil Production
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Monday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will stand firm on its decision to cut oil output by at least one million barrels a day.

In his report to the National Assembly, Chavez described the decision as "unbreakable," saying that it is intended to keep oil prices above 25.00 US dollars per barrel.

OPEC member countries will not change the decision under any pressure, he said, adding that the goal of this policy is to achieve a balanced market and a fair price.

It is unfair to merely ask oil producers to increase output to reduce oil prices, while nobody says anything against the high prices of industrial products from rich countries in the north, he said.

Chavez noted that countries from the south should also demand cuts in the prices of imported products and their foreign debts.

Representatives from OPEC`s 11 member-countries will meet in Vienna on January 17 to discuss the oil reduction plan.

CU over 25 $ wetten !

[M-B-S]

Tuesday, January 16, 2001, updated at 08:26(GMT+8)
World



US Fails to Win Firm Gulf Promise on Limited Oil Output Cuts
US Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson said Monday that he has failed to secure a firm promise from oil-rich Gulf Arab states to limit the size of an expected oil production cut.


Speaking at a news conference jointly held with Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser Al-Sabah before concluding his two-day visit, Richardson said that he achieved some progress in this respect but not a firm promise.

He said the US "does not believe that reduction in production is needed," expressing hope that if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decides an output cut, it would be " modest and staged."

Richardson said the US believes that output cuts could lead to instability in the oil market.

He said that his country favors a price of around 25 dollars a barrel, but he refused to go into details about the size of output cuts the US wants. Reports have said the US hopes for a reduction of 1 million barrels a day.

OPEC oil ministers are to meet in Vienna on Wednesday. The 11- member cartel is widely expected to agree to cut its daily crude production by some 1.5 million barrels to shore up the oil prices.

Kuwait, which has an OPEC quota of 2.141 million barrels per day, was among the first states to call for a production cut by the cartel.

Before Kuwait, Richardson visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which have only agreed to take into consideration of Washington`s position.

Man ist doch Scheich ! 30 $ +

[M-B-S]

Opec presses ahead with production cuts
Vienna |Reuters | 16-01-01
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

Opec oil producers pressed ahead yesterday with plans for a deep cut in crude supplies, reigniting concerns in the West about energy price inflation. Determined to underpin the price of OPEC oil at $25 a barrel, Opec is expected to slice exports by about 1.5 million barrels daily, just over five per cent.

Saudi Arabia`s Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi told reporters that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries needed to make that scale of cut to keep international oil markets in balance. Ministers, gathering to meet tomorrow, fear anything less could see oil prices nosedive when winter demand peters out.

"All our figures indicate that there has been oversupply of crude over the past few months and stocks at the level of the consumer have risen sharply," Opec Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez told Reuters. "The cut in production is aimed at stabilising prices within the $22-$28 price
band for Opec`s basket."

The West fears that a big cut in output could aggravate an economic slowdown in the United States by forcing up energy costs. Those concerns were underlined by a rise in the price of oil futures in London yesterday. Brent blend crude gained 43 cents to $26.20 a barrel. U.S. light crude edged above $30 last week but Opec`s basket of inferior quality crudes still is valued below $25.

The United States, supported by the European Union, appears to have failed to persuade Opec that it should make only a modest reduction. Heavy lobbying from U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, finishing a six-nation Opec tour yesterday, has fallen on deaf ears.

"They do not want any cuts at all because they want very low prices," Opec`s Algerian President Chakib Khelil told reporters in his Vienna hotel lobby. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Al Sabah said after his meeting with Richardson on Sunday that Opec remained on course to lower deliveries by 1.5
million bpd.

That would cut output for 10 members to a collective 25.2 million bpd. Sanctions-bound Iraq is not party to Opec`s quota system. Others, including Venezuela, Algeria, Indonesia and Qatar, will push for a larger reduction of up to two million bpd. "Our position has not changed to back an oil cut of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day," Venezuelan Oil Minister Alvaro Silva said after meeting Richardson in London.

Riyadh already has told its customers to expect a reduction in deliveries in February equivalent to its one-third share of an Opec cut of 1.5 million bpd. Washington argues that anything other than a modest cut could hurt already fragile economic growth in the world`s biggest energy consuming nation.

Opec looks at the issue from a different perspective. It is worried that slower world growth will translate into lower consumption of its crude. "World economic growth is going to be slower this year than last and that will impact oil demand," said Rodriguez.

But he conceded that if Opec policy forced prices too high, then production could be lifted again. "After cutting production, if prices rise too much we can always correct that because it`s always more easy to correct an increase in price than a fall." Key to price movements will be the impact on inventories of the output curbs.

Stocks of crude and petroleum products that fell dangerously low last year are on the mend but consumers fear that Opec`s intended action will halt stockbuilds prematurely. Meanwhile, Khelil said yesterday a likely cut in oil supply was no threat to global economic growth, but aimed at avoiding a price collapse in the second quarter of the year.

Khelil told Reuters Television that current Opec exports were 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) above forecast world demand this year, but that some members wanted to reduce by as much as two million to safeguard revenues. "We don`t see oil having a tremendous impact on inflation. There may be more risk in Asia... but in Europe, the United States and Japan I do not see much impact on inflation and growth," Khelil said.

The United States and Europe, where growth is expected to slow this year, have lobbied the Arab-dominated group to refrain from reducing supply as prices rose to what the U.S. government called an "unacceptable" level of $30 per barrel on Monday. "The market has integrated the expected production cut into the price...so we will not see major price changes after the decision," Khelil said.

The U.S. oil price is now about $6 per barrel higher than Opec`s price - an unusually large difference which Khelil blamed on a tripling in transport costs. "Tougher environmental regulations has led to a concentration in the tankering business," he said.
Without a supply cut, Khelil said prices would repeat the collapse of 1998 - when they fell to their lowest level in a decade below $10 per barrel - because inventories were rising at the same rate as they did in that year.

The United States` assessment of the market, which concluded that a further build in inventories was required to stave off shortages, was wrong because it failed to take into account a rise in stocks at the level of the final consumer, Khelil said. However, Opec stood ready to fill any shortage in the market, and would probably consider an increase in production in the third or fourth quarter of the year, when demand rises seasonally, the minister said.


So und jetzt eine Grundgesetz der Wirtschaft :

Begrenzte Ressource : Oel ( bzw. Fördermenge )

gepaart mit immer höherer Nachfrage !

Und einem Monopol ( Opec )

Wie sieht dann der Preis aus ?


Noch Fragen !

Da hilft auch kein Wunschdenken a la Börsenanalyst

[Broker_Marvin]

@M-B-S
H,
welche Oelaktien favorisierst du, schliesslich sollten
die Oelkonzerne in dem von dir beschriebenen Szenario
stark provitieren !

[M-B-S]

Ich bin eher mittel - langfrist Investor !

Darum favorisier ich Umwelt - Titel ! 100 - 1000 %

bzw . alt. Energien ! Wasserstoff Brennstoffzelle etc.


Aber kurzfristig werden Oelaktien auch profitieren allerdings nur 10 -50 %

CU

[M-B-S]

World in a sweat over oil summit

By STEPHEN DABKOWSKI
GLOBAL MARKETS EDITOR
Wednesday 17 January 2001

Anticipation of today`s meeting of OPEC oil ministers has sent crude oil prices to a six-week high, with analysts predicting the gathering could determine whether the world economy slips into recession.

Ministers from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries have gathered in Vienna for the meeting, which is expected to cut at least 1.5 million barrels a day from world crude oil production to boost oil prices.

Crude oil prices yesterday rose as much as 39 US cents, or 1.3 per cent, to $US30.44 in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest price since December 5.

Higher oil prices are expected to exacerbate an economic slowdown in the United States - the engine of global economic growth - because it consumes a quarter of the world`s oil. Outgoing US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson toured the Persian Gulf and Europe before the OPEC meeting, trying to convince the group`s producers to limit their cuts.

Mr Richardson said this week that any cuts should be cautious and measured, as oil at $US30 a barrel would harm the world economy.

Deutsche Bank global economist Mark Jolley called today`s OPEC meeting "one of the most crucial events in the world economy".

"Everyone who`s been predicting a soft landing in the world economy has assumed the crude oil price this year would be below $US30 a barrel, hopefully around $US25 a barrel," he said.

"If OPEC moves in such a way where the oil price moves and stays above $US30 a barrel, then that`s a major negative for world growth.

"One of the things that caused the recession in the manufacturing sector in the United States, which is already apparent, was oil prices last year rising to $US35 a barrel.

"And you`ve got to remember that economic conditions are much softer now than a year ago, so a spike in crude oil prices will have a bigger impact on sentiment and activity now than they would have had last year."

AXA Australia international analyst Tim Riddley said markets were already pricing in some of the implications of the OPEC meeting.

"If oil price remains high, it will depress earnings in the US, which will have a negative impact on equity markets," he said. "Overall, it`s not a good time for oil prices to remain around $US30 a barrel.

"I think the impact of high oil prices, particularly in the United States, will be felt on earnings rather than inflation because companies are finding it harder to pass on such price rises."

Mr Riddley said the average crude oil price during the `90s was $US20 a barrel, so at its current price it was already 50 per cent above that trend, which is why it is hurting the performance of the US economy.

While oil prices have bounced higher from a decline in December, OPEC oil ministers fear demand will slow in the next few months as winter ends in the northern hemisphere.

"We want the market to be in a stable mode," said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on arriving in Vienna for today`s meeting. "Therefore we need to make a reduction, and the size of the reduction will probably be around 1.5 million barrels per day."

OPEC believed such a cut, equal to 5.6 per cent, was needed after oil prices last month in New York fell 25 per cent, traders said.

"One and a half million will be the absolute minimum," said Peter Fanis, an options trader with Standard Bank in London.

The members of the 11-nation group in recent days have expressed support for a reduction of 1.5 million barrels a day, though Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said some members wanted to slash the quota by up to three million barrels a day.

OPEC would reduce quotas by "something in between" 1.5million and two million barrels a day, OPEC president and Algerian Oil Minister Chekib Khalil told reporters in Vienna.

with BLOOMBERG

[M-B-S]

U.S. oil stays atop $30 ahead of OPEC meeting
Reuters Company News - January 16, 2001 14:27




Copyright 2001 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - OPEC`s expected Wednesday announcement of cutting more than five percent of the cartel`s oil production helped U.S. crude oil to remain above $30 on Tuesday.

The OPEC cuts are to go into effect Feb. 1.

February crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were up 15 cents at $30.20 a barrel Tuesday afternoon, as OPEC neared its formal decision in Vienna.

Oil ministers from the 11-member cartel that controls about 40 percent of daily crude production are set to gather around 4:30 a.m. EST Wednesday (0930 GMT), well before American markets open.

While petroleum markets stayed focused on Vienna, California`s electricity crisis continued to grow.

Southern California utilities Tuesday said they would switch from natural gas to oil fire generators at its power plants. California went to a "Stage Three" power emergency Tuesday, its highest electrical alert. But rolling blackouts were said not to be likely.

Southern California Edison, a unit of Edison International , said it couldn`t pay about $600 million to creditors, bringing the state`s second-largest utility closer to bankruptcy.

OPEC leaders Tuesday made clear that the expected cutback in production was going to be a quick decision once the ministers gathered Wednesday.

"We expect a pro-rata reduction of 1.5 million barrels a day from February," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Tuesday. "There is a consensus about the output cut," said OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez of Venezuela.

Washington-based Petroleum Finance Co. said that OPEC`s action was proactive in a similar fashion to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s recent surprise rate interest rate cut.

[M-B-S]

BBC: Wednesday, 17 January, 2001, 06:38 GMT
Opec push for higher oil prices



The world can only wait to see what Opec will do

Leaders from the Opec cartel`s 11 leading countries are meeting on Wednesday in Vienna to agree new levels of oil production.
Motivated by the desire to push oil prices higher, the cartel is widely expected to reduce oil output.

But the scale of the cuts is still to be negotiated, with some sources saying that cuts could be more severe than initially expected.

Any reduction in production from the Opec countries is expected to lead to higher fuel prices around the rest of the world.

Unheeded warnings

The Opec cartel has been warned that a decision to cut production is likely to send crude prices soaring and threaten global economic growth.



We are going to cut production ... there is unbreakable resolve within Opec

Hugo Chavez
President, Venezuela
US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson toured the Middle East ahead of Wednesday`s meeting to urge Opec countries not to go ahead with steep cuts in oil production.


But his warnings seem to have gone unheeded.

The oil minister of Saudi Arabia has indicated that a cut of about 5% or 1.5 million barrels is necessary to stabilise prices.

Saudi Arabia has a great deal of power within the cartel, but is usually seen as one of the more moderate members.

And the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez hinted earlier this week that some coutries will be haggling for sharper cuts.

"There is an unbreakable resolve within Opec. Some are even proposing cuts of up to three million barrels a day," he said.

The determination to cut prices follows a drop of almost $10 in the price of oil from the five- year high of above $35 a barrel achieved last autumn.

The meeting is expected to be concluded within the day, although previous meetings have stretched across several days.


Fazit : just wait ? no

Just buy Umwelt - Werte !

[M-B-S]

Oil crawls up in Asia, reverses OPEC-led loss


Updated 2:14 AM ET January 18, 2001
By Lawrence Yong
SINGAPORE, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices recovered in Asia on Thursday, crawling back towards the recent five-week high of $30 a barrel after a sharp overnight fall.

Prices fell on Wednesday despite producer cartel OPEC making its first output cut in two years but the market firmed again on hopes of a second reduction by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The group`s secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said the cartel could consider curtailing output by as much as another million barrels a day in March.

Benchmark U.S. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) February crude oil futures last traded at $29.76 a barrel, up 16 cents over Wednesday by 0700 GMT, after peaking in early trade at $29.86.

The market fell 69 cents in New York on Wednesday to settle at $29.60.

OPEC agreed in Vienna on Wednesday to slash output from February by 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd), to bring its 10 members` production ceiling down by just over five percent to 25.2 million bpd.

The cuts, flagged by OPEC for weeks, were largely expected although it disappointed many oil importing nations which had lobbied the cartel help lower oil costs, a move that would benefit the slowing economy of energy guzzler the United States.

"The 1.5 million bpd cut was well expected by the market, that`s why prices fell but looking ahead, OPEC may spring another round of cuts, which is unexpected," Gordon Kwan, oil analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong, said.

Any further cuts would depend on where oil prices, now near the middle of the group`s preferred $22-$28 range, pan out in coming weeks.

Analysts were impressed by OPEC`s quick action to defend the market, after last month`s depression saw prices falling nearly 30 percent from 10-year highs.

The NYMEX crude market last peaked at $37.80 a barrel in mid-September.

ASIA SEES TIGHTER MARKETS ON OPEC CUT

Although a net oil importer, the cutbacks could be a boost for the Asian oil industry because it will take away some excess from recently oversupplied markets, dealers said.

Asian oil exporters like Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia, Brunei and OPEC member Indonesia will see their oil coffers bolstered.

A recent slide in prices of Asian benchmark crudes like Dubai, Oman and Tapis had last week been reversed after OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia issued early notice of a 10-12 percent cutback in February volumes to its term Asian buyers.

The Petroleum Association of Japan, which groups leading Japan oil companies, said on Thursday it expected upward pressure on Asian oil prices with the OPEC cuts, pending other factors such as U.S. weather and Iraqi oil exports.

Rogue oil exporter Iraq, under economic sanctions for its invasion of Kuwait 10 years ago, was not a party to the OPEC deal, but could boost exports next month under its United Nations monitored oil-for-food programme.

The world`s largest consumer, the United States, however expressed disappointment with OPEC`s move.

"It`s certainly very clearly a mistake and we`re disappointed with their decision," U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson told reporters on Wednesday.

Richardson had made pleas last week to producers to keep cuts small.

Latest U.S. oil inventory reports on Wednesday showed that U.S. stocks were still below comfortable levels.

The industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said crude stocks were up two million barrels for the week ending January 12, but middle distillates and gasoline stocks fell 3.25 million and 490,000 barrels respectively.

Except for gasoline, the oil inventories were still below the levels of a year ago.

[M-B-S]

`OPEC cut could aggravate oil price volatility`
PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said Thursday that the decision by OPEC to reduce output will make it harder for oil-consuming countries to rebuild oil stocks, thus aggravating the volatility of crude oil prices.

IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle said the Paris-based agency, which represents 25 oil-consuming countries, noted OPEC`s decision Wednesday in favor of a 1.5-million barrel-a-day production cut "with concern."

"Stocks are still low," said a statement by Priddle, and the production cut will make it harder to rebuild stocks. "And low stocks contribute to market volatility, which is in the interest of neither producers nor consumers," the statement said.

The IEA noted that, historically, its members replenish diminished stocks in the second quarter. Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries justified their production cut as an effort to stabilize volatile crude oil prices. They argued that their economies would suffer if prices plunged, but played down the potential difficulties their decision might inflict on importing countries.

However, the IEA is skeptical about the impact the cut will have on pushing oil prices higher, for a list of reasons: Oil markets had already factored in the OPEC decision; OPEC members have been producing below a previous target of 26.7 million barrels a day; Iraqi exports are likely to rise. Finally, winter pressure on heating oil supplies is likely to have eased by the time the impact from the production cut is felt.

A shortage of heating oil stocks in the northern United States partly explains recent high prices, Priddle said. Priddle said that by the time the production cut takes effect, the market`s focus will be on gasoline demand for the transport sector.

In the meantime, the IEA expects continued dialogue between its members and OPEC before its next scheduled meeting March 16. (AP)

[M-B-S]

Oil prices crawl back up in Asia

SINGAPORE: Oil prices recovered in Asia yesterday, crawling back towards the recent five-week high of US$30 a barrel after a sharp overnight fall.
Prices had fallen on Wednesday despite the move by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to make its first output cut in two years, but the market firmed again on hopes of a second reduction by the cartel.

Opec secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said the cartel could consider curtailing output by as much as a further million barrels a day in March.

Opec had agreed in Vienna on Wednesday to slash output from February by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to bring its 10 members` production ceiling down by just over 5% to 25.2 million bpd.

The cuts, flagged by Opec for weeks, were largely expected although it disappointed many oil importing nations which had lobbied the cartel to help lower oil costs, a move that would benefit the slowing economy of the energy guzzler United States.

"The 1.5 million bpd cut was well expected by the market, that`s why prices fell, but looking ahead Opec may spring another round of cuts, which is unexpected,`` said an oil analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong.

Any further cuts would depend on where oil prices, now near the middle of Opec`s preferred US$22 US$28 range, pan out in the coming weeks.

Analysts were impressed by Opec`s quick action to defend the market, after last month`s depression saw prices falling nearly 30% from 10-year highs of around US$37 a barrel.

Although a net oil importer, the cutbacks could be a boost for Asia`s oil industry because it would take away some excess from recently oversupplied markets, dealers said.--Reuters


CU again at 40$

[M-B-S]

US slowdown to hit oil demand
By Adrienne Roberts
Published: January 19 2001 10:14GMT | Last Updated: January 19 2001 20:03GMT



Signs of slowing growth in the US economy and their potential impact on the world economy have prompted the Paris-based International Energy Agency to cut its estimates of oil demand.

The IEA said on Friday that oil demand would be 77.3m barrels a day in 2001, compared with 75.6m in 2000. The figure was downwardly revised by 280,000b/d.

The IEA also downgraded its estimate of winter oil demand, saying that demand for the last quarter of 2000 and the first three months of 2001 would average 77.34m b/d - downwardly revising December`s report by 350,000.

World oil stocks edged up in November 2000, but were still below 1999 and 1998 levels. The 2.58bn barrels held in OECD countries was still 42m barrels less than stocks held in November 1999.

Output by the Opec countries was 27.86m b/d in December, down from 29.54m b/d a day in November. Opec resolved this week to cut production by 1.5m b/d.



Quelle FT.COM

[M-B-S]

"I expect California to survive this particular energy storm, but the entire First World will experience a rapid collapse once Canadians decide that "their" not freezing to death is more important than "our" millionaires playing golf in the desert."

"Ich erwarte, daß Kalifornien diesen speziellen `Energiesturm` überleben wird, aber die ganze industrialisierte Welt wird eine schnellen Kollaps erleben, wenn die Kanadier beschließen, daß es für sie wichtiger ist, nicht selbst zu Tode zu frieren, als daß Kaliforniens Millionäre in der Wüste Golf spielen können." (Übersetzung Energiekrise.de)

Jay Hanson (http://www.egroups.com/message/dieoff/2)

Und sie hatten doch recht.... Eine Wüdigung der Studie Global2000 des Jahres 1980 aus heutiger Sicht
12.1.2001: Die Studie Global 2000 wurde im Jahr 1980 dem US Präsidenten Carter vorgelegt und veröffentlicht. Was dort zur weltweiten Ölproduktion geschrieben wurde, gilt auch heute. Fast auf das Jahr genau wurde das damals das weltweite Produktionsmaximum vorhergesehen. Dies zeigt, als man wissen wollte, war man durchaus dazu in der Lage. Eine kurze Würdigung der Studie im aktuellen Kontext hat
http://www.energiekrise.de erstellt

Keiner will es wissen ? Ihr sollt es aber !

CU again at 50 $

[M-B-S]

Crude surges in wake of Opec cutback
London |Reuters | 20-01-01
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

World oil prices rose sharply yesterday, recovering from a steep slide this week when Opec announced an output cut from February. Brokers said the market shot up late in the day after breaking important resistance barriers in the United States.

"The market (February NYMEX) went through a very important resistance barrier at $30.66 and that brought buyers into the market," said one. "There`s no fresh news on the fundamental front, it was all technical."

Brent blend benchmark finished a whopping $1.43 higher to hit a five-week high of $27.05 a barrel in late trade in London from $25.65 earlier in the day. February NYMEX crude last traded up $1.65 at $32.10. Last year Brent prices averaged around $28.50 compared to about $18 in 1998.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) agreed to cut oil output this week by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in a bid to defend against an oil price slide and counteract the upcoming seasonal spring downturn in demand.

Prices dropped sharply on the Opec deal because the figure was in line with market expectations. Yesterday, the West`s oil watchdog said that the economic slowdown in the
United States was beginning to hit oil demand and that storage tanks were refilling, which is unusual for the winter months.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised downwards its forecast for oil demand this year by 280,000 bpd to 77.3 million bpd, which represents a 1.7 million bpd increase on 2000 demand.

It said stocks rose counter-seasonally in November but remain low and are contributing to price volatility. "The Opec cuts may well match the downturn in demand this spring," said Glen
Murray of brokers Azur in France.

So far, two key members Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have told customers of nine to 20 per cent cutbacks next month. Iran has also said it would cut exports by 200,000 bpd from next month.
Iraq, which is not bound by the Opec agreement, is slowly increasing exports after a sharp interruption during December.

Exports are proceeding smoothly from the Gulf port of Mina Al Bakr and look set to resume from Ceyhan in Turkey this weekened, said industry sources yesterday. In Singapore, the Asian market for Middle East Gulf crudes raced up for a third successive day yesterday as refiners scrambled to cover requirements in the wake of a tighter-supplied post-Opec cutback environment.

Premiums for most March spot crudes - Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar and Banoco Arab Medium - now command +30/+40 cents over their respective OSPs, levels not seen in the last few months at least. The markets hovered at 20 to 40 cents discount levels just two weeks ago, when February barrels were talked.

Latest trades for Oman was at MOG +31/32 cents, up versus Thursday`s MOG +25 cents levels, traders said. They said that Qatar Marines and Qatar Land have been sold out, with last trades at QGPC +40 cents levels.

Bahrain`s Arab Medium was sold into the +30s level to the Saudi price formula as well, mostly by state marketer Banoco.

The light sour Abu Dhabi crudes market was the only one appeared a little subdued, but mainly because sellers have pulled back. Traders said they expected late Friday trades for Murban at around ADNOC +35 cents, and at even higher premiums for Lower Zakum.

The Opec cutbacks sparked the buying frenzy from mainly Japan refiners from Wednesday, and it has been exacerbated by a long lunar New Year holiday next week.

"It`s pretty close to its topside now but who knows?" one trader with a U.S. oil company said. "There isn`t any Iraqi Basrah light around and no West African crudes as alternative, and Opec cutbacks to match."

Kuwait on Thursday reversed a promise to supply full volumes for February made to Asian buyers last week. After the Opec meeting, buyers are now asked to lift around nine percent lower volumes.

Some buyers like China, Taiwan and Thailand refiners however remained on the sidelines of the recent run-up. One Taiwan and one Thai refiner was fence-sitting on a decision to issue a tender to buy March cargoes.

"We are not going to chase, the market has gone up too high for us to consider buying," one refiner said.

Traders said China also appeared to be staying out of Oman market, with only one of its state traders making a March buy so far. That cargo, however, could be for trading purposes rather than enduser demand.

[M-B-S]

Sunday, January 21, 2001, updated at 16:24(GMT+8)
Business



Protection Urged over Oil Prices
China should engage more strongly in the world oil futures markets to reduce its exposure to volatile oil prices, according to a senior analyst.

Chen Huai, deputy director of the Market Economy Institute of the State Council-affiliated Development Research Centre, said the country`s mounting oil imports had made greater participation in the futures markets more urgent to stabilize the economy.

He estimated the annual oil imports at 180 million tons by 2015 against about 70 million tons last year.

Chen also called for the State to reopen an oil exchange and allow domestic and foreign oil companies to carry out spot and futures transactions in preparation for the stronger engagement in the world markets.

The oil exchange in Shanghai was closed by the government in 1995 to make the oil and fuel market more orderly.

Chen also suggested in an interview with Business Weekly that China strengthen co-operation with other countries in exploring and developing foreign oil resources.

He said it was vital for the country to launch a State strategic oil reserve like the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to protect against any shortage.

His remarks reinforce a recent call by Li Shensheng, deputy director of the Economic Research and Consulting Centre under the State Economic and Trade Commission, for the central government to create a strategic oil stockpile of 15 million tons by 2010.

But the creation of an oil stockpile would only be a passive move to ensure the country`s energy security, Chen said.

The government recognized there was an urgent need for stronger action to stabilize the economy.

"We should go out and use foreign oil resources through multichannels,`` Chen said.

World oil prices had been so capricious not because of an imbalance between supply and demand, but due to international speculators, he said.

The oil price is now hovering around US$25 a barrel, compared with a decade-peak of US$38 a barrel last October. But it was less than US$10 a barrel in March, 1999.

"We must lose no time in training professionals and getting familiar with the rules of the game to play a bigger role in the world oil futures markets,`` Chen said.

Some Chinese oil companies, such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petrochemical Corporation, the country`s two largest, seek hedging on the world market, but the volume is small.

At the moment CNPC had no plans to expand its futures business on the markets, said a company spokesman.

Chen Huai said China would be in a strong position to cushion itself against oil market volatility within 10 years if it could get 30 million tons of oil annually by exploring and developing abroad.

The State has established some oil production bases in foreign countries, such as Sudan, Iran and Peru, and can produce about 5.5 million tons every year.

Oil price volatility has greatly affected China`s economy and curbed its reform plans as the central government has allowed domestic oil and fuel prices to move in line with world markets.

The long-awaited fuel tax, for example, is still on hold because of high oil prices.

Analysts said the tax could be implemented when oil prices fell to around US$20 a barrel. They predicted the price would stay at US$20 to US$25 a barrel during the next decade.

Chen Huai said the country would rely more heavily on oil imports with a widening gap between its oil demand and production.

He said the country`s oil demand would shoot up to 360 million tons by 2015 from 189 million tons in 1999, to fuel its rapid economic growth, which is expected to run at an average 7 per cent or more a year.

But according to Li Shensheng, domestic oil output has little potential to increase and will linger at around 180 million tons during the period.

Yang Jingmin, former president of the Shanghai oil exchange, has said re-establishment of an exchange would attract foreign oil and investment and help domestic producers and buyers assess market conditions, fine-tune prices and minimize risks.

The exchange should be re-established in Shanghai as it is China`s financial centre, believes Yang, who is now director of the Development Research Centre of the CNPC.

[M-B-S]

Wie Ihr ja alle wisst ist der Gaspreis an den Oelpreis

und umgekehrt gekoppelt !

So, und jetzt die Bombe made in USA :

[M-B-S]

Ach ja richtig der Januar 2001 fehlt : 7$ !

CU

[M-B-S]

Energieträger Erdöl Quelle Energiekrise.de

Lassen Sie uns die Dringlichkeit des Ressourcenproblems am Beispiel der Situation des Erdöls verdeutlichen. Die Reichweite von Erdöl ist die kürzeste aller fossilen Energieträger. Gleichzeitig besteht eine große Abhängigkeit unserer Gesellschaft und der Industrie von der Verfügbarkeit von billigem Rohöl.

Mit der Frage, wie groß die weltweiten Erdölvorräte insgesamt sind und wie lange das Öl noch reichen wird, hat man sich lange nicht ernsthaft beschäftigt. Erste fundierte Schätzungen stammen von dem amerikanischen Geologen M. King Hubbert. Er hat als erster auf die Tatsache hingewiesen, daß die Ausbeutung jeder Ölregion dem Verlauf einer Glockenkurve folgt: Die Förderung steigt über die Jahre an, erreicht ihr Maximum, wenn etwa die Hälfte des Öls gefördert ist, und sinkt danach kontinuierlich wieder ab.

Die wesentliche Leistung von Hubbert bestand darin, daß er den Blick auf die Frage gelenkt hat, wann die Fördermenge in einem bestimmten Fördergebiet oder auch weltweit ihr Maximum erreicht - diese Frage ist wesentlich interessanter als die Frage nach der Reichweite des verbleibenden Öls, da ab diesem Punkt das Angebot die Nachfrage nicht mehr vollständig befriedigen kann.

Hubbert hat im Jahr 1956 vorausgesagt, daß die amerikanische Ölförderung um das Jahr 1970 ihr Maximum erreichen werde. Für diese Prognose wurde er damals viel verlacht, doch tatsächlich hat er genau Recht behalten.
Im Jahr 1974 prognostizierte er aus der Kenntnis des Rückgangs der Neufunde und unter Fortschreibung bestehender Verbrauchstrends, daß das weltweite Produktionsmaximum etwa gegen Ende des Jahrhunderts erreicht sein werde.

Auch der im Jahr 1980 veröffentlichte Bericht "Global 2000" im Auftrag des amerikanischen Präsidenten, J. Carter, kam zu der Erkenntnis, daß die Erfolgsquote im Auffinden neuer Ölfelder zurückgehe und das Produktionsmaximum wohl um die Jahrhundertwende sein werde.

Aus heutiger Perspektive lagen beide Abschätzungen über die verfügbaren Ölmengen eher auf der optimistischen Seite - allein der nicht so starke Verbrauchszuwachs verhinderte bisher das Überschreiten des Produktionsmaximums


Weltölproduktion nach Campbell, Alle wichtigen Förderregionen außerhalb des Nahen Ostens haben das Produktionsmaximum bereits überschritten. Aber auch dort kann die andernorts rückläufige Ölproduktion nicht vollständig ausgeglichen werden, so daß schon bald die weltweite Erdölproduktion zurückgehen wird.

Das Zahlenmaterial stammt von Petroconsultants in Genf, die seit über vierzig Jahren Daten über Erdölfelder sammeln. Die Kurven basieren auf der Auswertung von Daten von mehr als zehntausend Ölfeldern. Weltweit sind heute etwa 42000 Ölfelder bekannt, doch bereits in einem Prozent der Felder sind 75 Prozent des Erdöls enthalten.



Das Fördermaximum markiert gleichzeitig den Punkt, an dem die Hälfte allen verfügbaren Erdöls verbraucht ist. Das Überschreiten dieses Maximums hat aber eine noch weit größere Bedeutung: Ab diesem Punkt kann die Erdölförderung nicht weiter steigen und das Halten des Förderniveaus ist nur mit großem technischem Aufwand für eine gewisse Zeitspanne möglich. Der Weltmarkt wird auf diese Situation mit steigenden Preisen reagieren, zumal die Nachfrage weiter steigen wird.

Interessant sind an dieser Stelle ein paar Bemerkungen zu den Ölvorkommen in der Nordsee oder in Alaska. Viele Leute meinen, daß man auf Grund des ersten Ölpreis-Schocks Anfang der 70er Jahre angefangen hat, nach Alternativen zu den Ölvorkommen der Nahost-Länder zu suchen. Prompt habe man in der Nordsee Öl gefunden und konnte den Druck reduzieren. Falls es an anderer Stelle wieder eng wird, wiederholt man dies und sucht sich die "nächste Nordsee", zum Beispiel im Kaspischen Meer oder vor der Küste Angolas.

Dabei wird jedoch übersehen, daß die Vorkommen in der Nordsee und in Alaska sehr wohl vor der Ölkrise schon entdeckt waren und daß es nur ein ökonomisches Problem war, diese schwieriger zu erschließenden Felder auch tatsächlich auszubeuten. Die Ölindustrie war darauf vorbereitet. Achtzig Prozent des heute geförderten Öls stammt aus Quellen, die dreißig Jahre oder länger bekannt sind.



Das Größte findet man mit einfachen Methoden zuerst. So auch bei der Suche nach Erdöl. Nach einer Phase des Lernens und der Internationalisierung war das Maximum der Neufunde in den 60er Jahren - seither findet man zunehmend weniger Öl; Dies wird schon bald seinen Niederschlag in einer rückläufigen Ölproduktion und steigenden Preisen finden. Man kann nur Öl fördern, das man vorher gefunden hat. Eine theoretische Ressourceabschätzung, wieviel Öl möglicherweise irgendwo vorhanden sein könnte, hilft hier wenig.

Das Maximum der neuen Ölfunde war in den 60er Jahren erreicht. Trotz intensivster Explorationsbemühungen nach den beiden Ölkrisen werden die neuen Funde bis auf wenige Ausnahmen immer geringer. Dies ist auch in keiner Weise erstaunlich, denn die geologischen Zusammenhänge, die zur Entstehung von Öl in der Erdgeschichte geführt haben, sind mittlerweile sehr gut verstanden. Man weiß also, wo man suchen muß und man weiß, wo es nichts zu finden gibt.

Es ist auch einsichtig, daß die großen Vorkommen bereits mit einfachen Methoden früher gefunden wurden als die kleinen. Die Summenkurve aller bisher gefundenen Ölfundenähert sich längst asymptotisch einem Grenzwert. Bei der nächsten Ölkrise gibt es keine "noch nicht angegangenen Vorkommen" mehr. Im wesentlichen ist bereits alles gefunden.

Die einzigen noch hoffnungsvollen weniger erforschten Gebiete liegen im tiefen Atlantik vor den Küsten Brasiliens und Westafrikas, im Golf von Mexico und im Kaspischen Meer. In 20 Jahren der Suche wurden hier etwa 25 Gb gefunden. Geologen vermuten, daß hier insgesamt etwa 85 Gb über die kommenden 20 Jahre gefördert werden könnten - nach dem Geologen C.J. Campbell eine sehr optimistische Abschätzung. Dies würde den Weltölverbrauch um etwas mehr als 4 Jahre decken.

Der aktuelle Ölfund im Kasachischen off-shore Teil des Kaspischen Meeres wird von Geologen vorläufig auf etwa 10 - 20 Gb geschätzt (Stand: Anfang Juni 2000) - genauere Angaben stehen noch aus. Somit wäre es der größte Ölfund seit mehr als 20 Jahren. Das Gesamtpotential des Kaspischen Meeres wird von Geologen auf etwa 20 - 30 Gb geschätzt - in der Presse wird es teilweise von politisch motivierter Seite mit über 100 Gb angegeben. Man wird sehr bald sehen, daß die Erschließung des tatsächlichen Potentials von vielen Randbedingungen abhängt und kaum einen Einfluß auf das weltweite Produktionsmaximum haben wird.

Die euphorischen Meldungen der letzten Monate über große Funde im Kaspischen Meer sind vor allem politisch motiviert, um den OPEC-Staaten den Eindruck zu vermitteln, daß man von ihnen unabhängig sei. Daß man heute im tiefen off-shore Bereich mit kostspieligen Methoden exploriert, muß zunächst als ein Eingeständnis gewertet werden, daß man andernorts kaum noch Öl findet. Denn das leichteste macht man zuerst ...

Die OPEC-Staaten ihrerseits versuchen den Konsumentenstaaten weiszumachen, daß sie noch sehr lange über Öl verfügten und somit kein Anlaß wäre, über Alternativen nachzudenken.

Für die Nordsee wird erwartet, daß das Fördermaximum spätestens um das Jahr 2001 erreicht sein wird. Die heimischen europäischen Ölvorkommen gehen sichtbar und absehbar zu Ende. Dies gilt insbesondere für Norwegen, dem wichtigsten Ölproduzenten in Europa und gleichzeitig weltweit zweitgrößten Ölexporteur. Dann kann der bisherige Anteil an europäischer Eigenförderung von knapp vierzig Prozent nicht länger aufrecht erhalten werden.

In den USA war das Produktionsmaximum im Jahr 1971 und ein kleineres Nebenmaximum, aufgrund des bei höheren Ölpreisen rentablen Anschlußes von Alaska 1985 erreicht. Die Importquote der USA hat sich in den letzten zehn Jahren von dreißig auf jetzt über fünfzig Prozent erhöht. Heute befindet sich die Ölproduktion der USA auf dem Niveau der fünfziger Jahre.

Knapp sechzig Prozent der weltweiten Ölreserven lagern im nahen Osten, einer Region von der die Welt zunehmend abhängig sein wird. Trotzdem setzen die Volkswirtschaften weiterhin auf den Energieträger Erdöl und auf dessen billiger Verfügbarkeit.

Die Meldungen über große Einzelfunde dürfen nicht über die Problematik der Gesamtsituation hinwegtäuschen. In den USA brechen aufgrund der rückläufigen Förderung Jedes Jahr ca. 300000 Barrel Tagesproduktion weg, die andernorts zusätzlich gefördert werden müssen. In Europa dürfte innerhalb der kommenden 1-2 Jahre ein ähnlicher Betrag zusätzlich wegfallen. Somit wird man (auch mit den großen Reserven der OPEC und mit manchen Neufunden) Mühe haben, die in den alten Regionen rückläufige Produktion durch eine Mehrproduktion dort wenigsten einigermaßen auszugleichen.

Es ist durchaus vorstellbar, daß die heutige Ölpreiskrise (Juni 2000), die ja durch die geringen Förderquoten der OPEC ausgelöst wurde, den Beginn einer dauerhaften Unterversorgung bedeutet. Zunächst zeigt sie, daß die Welt außerhalb der OPEC das ausfallende Erdöl nicht liefern kann, denn sonst würde sie es. Die überstürzte Reise des amerikanischen Energieminsters in die OPEC-Staaten im März dürfte eher kontraproduktiv gewesen sein, zeigte sie doch der OPEC ihre tatsächliche Macht. Diese wird sie denn auch zunehmend ausspielen. Unklar ist, wie stark und vor allem wie schnell die OPEC ihre Produktion noch ausweiten kann. Es gibt begründete Vermutungen, daß man auch dort nahe der Kapazitätsgrenze fördert. Das mit 100 Gb weltgrößte Ölfeld Ghawar in Saudi Arabien befindet sich bereits jenseits des Produktionsmaximums im "decline".

Ob die derzeitige Überaktivität im Anschluß neuer Felder diesen Ausgleich noch einmal für kurze Zeit wird bringen können, muß sich zeigen. (Man stelle sich vor, daß die durchschnittliche Produktionsrate texanischer Ölquellen 7 Barrel pro Tag beträgt - Das sind sieben Faß Öl pro Tag !!! Große im Rückgang befindliche alte Ölfelder fördern mit einigen zigtausend Barrel Tagesproduktion).

Vermutlich im Herbst 2000 wird die Nachfrageerhöhung zum beginnenden Winter zeigen, wie groß die Möglichkeiten tatsächlich noch sind. : 38$ pro Barrel

[hase100]

@MBS,

schoener thread. Du bringst die Leute hier evt. zum lesen, allerdings niemals zum verstehen, wetten?

hase

[M-B-S]

Current Oil/Gas Prices
Alaska North Slope
$26.95 / BBL
North Sea Brent
$27.15 / BBL
Saudi Arabia Light
$22.95 / BBL
West Texas
$32.10 / BBL Bush Lobby lässt grüssen !
Natural Gas
$ 7.60 / MMBtu


Tenedenz : steigend !

[M-B-S]

Mexico moves away from OPEC, towards U.S


Updated 5:18 PM ET January 25, 2001
By Susan Schneider
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Just two years ago, Mexico sat at the same table as oil leviathans Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, crafting an energy policy that would eventually triple world oil prices.

What a difference two years can make. Under new President Vicente Fox, Mexico seems to be moving stealthily away from its allies in the OPEC cartel and narrowing its diplomatic divide with the United States, its top trade partner.

Behind the scenes, say some oil customers, Mexico is also laying the groundwork for an increase in its share of the all-important U.S. crude market at the expense of its former Saudi and Venezuelan allies.

When OPEC was moving last week to trim global oil supplies to compensate for sliding end-of-winter energy demand, non-OPEC Mexico did not follow with a mirror-image immediate cut of its own, its custom of the past two years.

Mexico on Wednesday set its exports at 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd) as of Feb. 1, below what the nation had projected to export in 2001 but almost exactly in line with current export levels.

Analysts say that by not taking any oil off the market Mexico -- the world`s No. 5 oil producer -- is making a gesture to the United States, which has bristled at OPEC`s push for oil near $30.

"There`s a whole new set of relationships developing between the new Mexican and U.S. governments," said one energy analyst. "That (political gestures) is to be expected if Fox wants good relations with the United States."

If true, the effort would sow the seeds of a new battle against the very allies Mexico had forged in the oil-producing pacts of the last two years -- Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, which along with Mexico are the top three U.S. oil suppliers.

BUSH VISIT

The distancing from OPEC has much to do with political timing. U.S. President George W. Bush, in power just a handful of days, said he would put new focus on Latin America and to underline this push named Mexico as his first foreign stop.

Ahead of Bush`s visit, Fox`s government clearly wants to paint itself as a key U.S. friend, the opposite stance taken by the region`s other oil powerhouse Venezuela, said George Baker, director of Houston-based Mexico Energy Intelligence.

"Bush is going to be looking to Mexico as a major ally, so there`s a lot riding on getting the signals going the right way before the visit," said Baker.

The United States also holds economic stakes for Mexico. The country sends 90 percent of its total exports and the bulk of its crude to its northern neighbor, so any change in U.S. fortunes can sharply affect Mexico`s economic performance.

This means that the impending slowdown in the U.S. economy is likely to put the brakes on Mexico`s own breakneck growth of the past year. And Mexico, economists say, will not want to hasten a U.S. slowdown by sponsoring excessively high oil prices.

"Mexico is pursuing its national interests, which happen to coincide with those of the United States -- namely, it wants to prevent a sharp run-up in oil prices, which could throw the American economy into a tailspin," said George W. Grayson, professor at College of William & Mary.

"Mexico will cooperate with OPEC when the cartel`s policies advance its national interests," Grayson added.

Mexico does not have too much wiggle room. It relies on state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos for roughly one-third of its revenues, so it can ill afford a plunge in prices to the sub-$10 a barrel level seen before the producers` cooperation.

"I think they`re going to be very cautious in all of this," said an analyst who did not want to be identified.

EYEING U.S. MARKET SHARE

Far from the political stage, Mexico has much to gain on the business front if relations with the United States, the globe`s biggest energy consumer, are enhanced.

Mexico has been quietly pushing to capture a bigger piece of this market by peddling more of its heavy Maya crude to U.S. refiners.

Pemex already has a contract with Exxon Mobil`s Baytown, Texas refinery to supply Maya U.S. crude market and signed another this week with Orion Refining to supply one-third of the refiner`s crude needs.

Mexico is also spending billions of dollars to upgrade its refineries to process more Maya, which may enable the nation to send its lighter grades to clients elsewhere.

With so many Mexican interests aligning with those north of the border, North America will likely be a happier neighborhood in coming months, analysts said.

"When President Bush comes to Mexico he`s going to know who his friends are," said Baker.

Fazit USA sorgen auf Ihre Weise vor !

Und der Rest der Welt EU ?

[A-Friend]

M-B-S,

toller Thread!

weiter so.


Das Lesen der engl. Beiträge ist allerdings mehr als anstrengend.


Aber ansonsten: tolle Zusammenstellung der Postings.
vor allem das Referat von Campbell.

Gruß
A-Friend

[M-B-S]

Oil prices top $27 a barrel



London – Oil prices drifted above $27 a barrel on Monday amid forecasts of low temperatures across Europe this week.

A barrel of Brent North Sea reference crude for March delivery rose to $27.14 a barrel from $26.98 at the close on Friday. The New York light sweet crude March contract rose 41c on Friday to $29.77.

"There was no fresh news over the weekend just the fact that there is cold weather expected out in Europe over the next 10 to 14 days," said ABN Amro trader Steve Rout. "And that might just give a little bit of support."

Rout said prices had settled within a tight range with technical support at $26.52 and resistance at $27.28.

[M-B-S]

Little easy oil and gas left
Andrew Kelly


Houston - Oilmen have always been fond of telling the rest of us that all the easy oil and gas was found long ago and that it takes increasing amounts of cunning and hard work to persuade the Earth to give up additional hydrocarbons.

It`s a truism perhaps nowhere more evident than in the United States, where the industry has been scouring the landscape for a century and a half in search of profitable drilling prospects.

Despite the incentive of historically high oil and natural gas prices, a shortage of readily drillable targets has constrained US domestic oil and gas production and left it increasingly reliant on foreign supply.

Waning domestic supply has spurred the new Bush administration to push for opening federal lands, including the northern coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), to eager oil drillers.

Simmons & Co. energy analyst Mark Meyer notes that US oil production by 21 of the biggest publicly traded companies fell more than 5% in the first nine months of 2000 while the same companies` US gas production fell 0.7%.

"There`s not a lot of sweetspot easy-gets any more," Meyer said.

Jeff Kieburtz, an analyst with Salomon Smith Barney, says the aging of the world`s oil and gas reservoirs is pushing global exploration efforts into more remote areas, especially deepwater offshore plays such as the Gulf of Mexico.

"Most of the land and shallow-water basins in this country are fairly well understood, so that new drilling prospects tend to be step-out type of drilling ideas rather than entirely new structures," Kieburtz said.

"Deepwater is where the real pure exploration activity is going on in this country," he said.

SQUEEZING MORE OUT OF OLD FIELDS

The US Minerals Management Service recently reported that the number of rigs drilling in water depths of 1000 feet or greater in the Gulf of Mexico rose to a record 40 at the end of last year from 26 a year earlier.

That total included seven rigs working in "ultradeep water" of 5000 feet or more and three that were pushing the frontiers of offshore exploration in more than 7500 feet of water.

Back on land, so-called enhanced recovery techniques are being used to squeeze more oil and gas out of mature fields.

Marathon Oil and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners recently formed a joint venture that will inject carbon dioxide deep into the ground to boost production from the historic Yates field in West Texas that was discovered in 1926.

Meyer said relatively complex enhanced recovery technology was even being deployed from the startup of Phillips Petroleum`s Alpine field in Alaska, the biggest US onshore oil discovery in more than a decade.

Alpine, discovered in 1994, contains estimated recoverable reserves of 429 million barrels of oil. Production began in November, using a mixture of gas and liquids to extract oil from the rock that holds it.

Meyer contrasted Alpine with the big discoveries of the past which first underwent a long phase of primary production, making use of the field`s natural pressure. Later, they were flooded with water to prolong production and only toward the end of their life would more complex "tertiary" recovery techniques be deployed.

Phillips is also taking pains to protect Alaska`s delicate tundra and wildlife, minimizing environmental impact by cramming surface production facilities for the 40 000-acre field into just 94 acres and using temporary ice roads and air transportation to move people and supplies, rather than building a new road.

DRILLING DEEPER WELLS

In North Texas, Mitchell Energy & Development has boosted its production of natural gas from a field that it has been working since the 1950s by pumping in a mixture of sand and water to crack open the tough Barnett Shale formation.

Meyer said that in the near to middle term deeper wells will have to meet growing US demand for natural gas. Deeper wells hold out the prospect of much bigger reserves, but they are more expensive to drill and the risk of failure is much higher.

This month Burlington Resources completed a well in Wyoming that it drilled to 25 855 feet. It is currently conducting tests to determine if it contains sufficient reserves to warrant development and production.

By contrast, wells drilled in Texas in recent years have had an average depth of just over 6600 feet.

With the new administration of President George W. Bush taking over in Washington, the US oil and gas industry is hoping for a more sympathetic response to its calls to open up more federal land to exploration drilling.

Conoco`s top exploration and production executive, Rob McKee, has noted that the Rocky Mountains alone are estimated to contain 137 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, equivalent to six times current US annual consumption.

Meyer said the change of administration could help the industry but that he did not anticipate a swift breakthrough in the political tug-of-war between economic and environmental interests when it came to opening up public lands to drilling.

In the meantime, as the major oil companies and larger independents shift their investment focus toward international and deepwater prospects, technologies such as time-lapsed 3D seismic surveying can enable smaller independents to prolong the life of mature fields and earn money as they do so.

"From a public policy point of view, it won`t cut dependence on imported oil, but for individual companies it makes sense," Kieburtz of Salomon Smith Barney said.


Tja , auch Texaner müssen jetzt suchen um noch was zu finden! Auch im Golf von Mexico

[M-B-S]

Opec may cut output further in March


TOKYO
THE ORGANISATION of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut output further in March by 500,000 to one million barrels per day to shore up prices during the sluggish second quarter demand period, an energy economist said on Thursday.

"It may become unavoidable to cut in March somewhere between 500,000 and one million barrels-per-day," Fereidum Fesharaki, a senior fellow of the energy programme in Hawaii, said this at an industry seminar in Tokyo.

He said Opec would probably need to keep making adjustments in its output to keep prices within its crude price target range of around $25 per barrel.

"For Opec the task will be to try to keep the prices stable through the second quarter, but that means that in the third quarter that Opec will have to add to production," he told an industry seminar. Fesharaki is an energy economist whose views about the market and industry are widely read.

Opec on January 17 agreed to a 1.5m bpd cut in the cartel`s oil output as of February 1. Opec producers will meet again in March. Fesharaki said Opec producers would like to keep Opec basket prices in the mid-$20`s per barrel range. "But it is not so easy to design in that way, particularly when you have a big drop in demand for the second quarter," he added.

The latest price of Opec`s basket of crudes was quoted at $24.7 a barrel. He added that much of the outlook for crude oil prices will depend on how severe the current slowdown in the US economy, the world`s largest oil consumer, would be. — Reuters

Interessant ist auch dies : auf opecnews.com

Hydrogen in the Oil Emirate: The CleanEnergy WorldTour 2001 Kicks Off in Dubai


Sheik Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum is Patron of the Event
Updated 6:57 AM ET February 1, 2001
DUBAI, United Emirates, Feb. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- On February 1st the BMW hydrogen fleet will begin its world tour. The first stop and starting point of the "CleanEnergy WorldTour 2001" is Dubai (City), the up-and-coming metropolis on the Persian Gulf. The governing Sheik Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum has agreed to be patron of the event.
In Europe the fleet of fifteen BMW 750hl models has already covered over 100,000 kilometers with success and has proved that the hydrogen automobile with internal combustion engine has been technically implemented. The BMW Group, the world`s first manufacturer to build a small series of hydrogen cars, is continuing in its commitment to the cleanest energy of the future by holding events for politics, science and the media.

Dubai offered itself as the ideal starting point for the WorldTour: the emirate is one of the centers of the global energy supply and is considered to be highly future-oriented. Successful projects such as the world`s first Internet City emphasise the country`s innovative power. In addition Dubai awards the largest environment prize, The "Zayed International Prize for the Environment." Various projects in the areas of regenerative energy and environmental protection have already been launched with international cooperation. Since Dubai is located on the earth`s sunbelt, the initiative of the BMW Group for the regenerative production of hydrogen met with constructive interest.

About one year ago the BMW Group already participated at the "International Conference and Exhibition on desertification", where the hydrogen-powered 7 Series sedan was one of the greatest attractions.

Dr. Mohammed Bin Fahed, Chairman of the Zayed International Prize, supports the BMW CleanEnergy Strategy: "There is compelling evidence that global warming and climate change is underway, affecting human health, habitats, wildlife, and economies around the world. If the trend is to be stemmed, it is necessary to switch to clean energy sources, including those for automobiles," he stresses. "BMW`s efforts in developing hydrogen as an alternative clean energy source are highly appreciated by the environmental institutions and organisations worldwide. After all, the fossil fuel reserves will not last forever," he adds.

bp, one of the leading global players in the energy sector and partner of the Dubai event, also sees the necessity of gaining hydrogen from regenerative energies in the future and therefore is dedicating itself to the CleanEnergy WorldTour 2001. CO2 emissions, which are considered to be the main influence on the world climate, can only be reduced in the long-term by using regeneratively produced hydrogen. Apart from bp, the German company Linde AG -- a worldwide supplier of hydrogen -- is also participating in the event. Linde is not only a partner in research for tank systems, but also a supplier for liquified hydrogen and refill facilities throughout the CleanEnergy WorldTour.

BMW 750hl is the first series-produced hydrogen automobile in the world

In May 2000 the BMW Group presented the first series-produced hydrogen car to the world. This successfully initiated the process for spreading hydrogen as the energy source of the future. Parallel to this an exhibition in the Transport Centre of the Deutsches Museum in Munich, held on the occasion of the EXPO 2000, informed the public about the production and utilisation of CleanEnergy.

As part of the CleanEnergy WorldTour 2001, the BMW Group will continue to promote this process worldwide by means of international events for the world of politics, science and the media.

After its launch in Dubai, the Tour will visit other cities too, such as Brussels, Milan, Tokyo and Los Angeles.

The focus of the CleanEnergy WorldTour 2001 is on the lasting character of the "production -- distribution -- utilisation of hydrogen in automobiles" process. At each of the individual tour stops, specific aspects of the process will be highlighted.

In Dubai, for example, the main issue will be the production of hydrogen with the help of the unlimited supply of solar energy. In Tokyo and Los Angeles the emissions-free operation of hydrogen vehicles will be the main theme. In Europe the Tour will focus on the distribution of hydrogen as well as on the definition of norms and standards necessary to help hydrogen technology achieve market breakthrough.


Cross-reference: Photos are available at:
http://recherche.newsaktuell.de/story.htx?nr=216601&action=b…
http://recherche.newsaktuell.de/story.htx?nr=216601&action=b…
Caption: The BMW hydrogen fleet World Tour started in the Dubai Emirates
For questions please contact:
Corporate Communications
Andreas Klugescheid, Product and Engineering, Technology and Innovation
Telefon: [phone], Fax: [phone]
Thomas Gubitz, Product and Engineering, Technology and Innovation
Telefon: [phone], Fax: [phone]
Internet: www.press.bmwgroup.com
e-mail: [e-mail]

Fazit : Das Ende des Oel-Zeitalters ist da

Das haben die Scheichs auch kapiert jetzt heisst es Kasse machen ! Und groß Einsteigen mit Oel-Milliarden in

die solare Wasserstoff produktion ( Sonne hat man ja auch )

[M-B-S]

U.S. crude oil price jumps 4 percent on tight supply


Updated 4:00 PM ET February 1, 2001
By Richard Valdmanis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices jumped 4 percent Thursday on continued worries over tight national crude supplies as producer-group OPEC began its first formal day of fresh output cuts.

Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gained $1.16 to $29.82 a barrel for March delivery, pulling heating oil and gasoline futures higher in their wake -- up 1.88 cents to 77.84 cents a gallon and 2.39 cents to 85.01 cents a gallon, respectively.

The gains pulled the petroleum complex out of a tailspin triggered by inventory reports that showed unexpectedly large gasoline supply builds, between 5.2 and 6.6 million barrels, over last week - seen by some as a signal of a slowing economy.

But supply figures also showed larger-than-expected draws in crude oil inventories, which kept dealers on edge.

National crude supplies fell 5.6 million barrels to 282.8 million barrels last week, or less than three million barrels above 25-year lows, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Crude oil supplies in the nation`s heartland fell 1.9 million barrels to 56.3 million barrels -- an all-time low for the region, home of the key Cushing, Okla., delivery point, the API said.

The continued tight crude oil supplies were highlighted as oil cartel OPEC entered its first official day of a fresh 1.5 million barrel per day output cut -- decided in mid-January at its meeting in Vienna.

The supply cut, which amounts to about five percent of OPEC`s production, was aimed at guarding against a price decline after the group increased production four times consecutively in 2000.

Meanwhile, uncertainty continued to shroud wild-card member Iraq, which was seen resuming exports out of the Turkish port of Ceyhan after a patchy month of disruptions.

A one-million barrel tanker began loading Iraqi crude from the port Thursday, making it the fourth to do so this year. Previously disrupted shipments out of the Mideast Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr, however, were seen at full rates.

Iraq began interrupting its exports in December after it started demanding a surcharge from its customers in defiance of U.N. sanctions, imposed after the Gulf War.

The price gains, however, were tempered by a growing confidence in winter supplies for heating oil, particularly in the Northeast, where inventories are 14 percent above year-ago levels.

NYMEX heating oil futures have fallen nearly 30 percent since late November, compared with a 40 percent rise over the same period last year.

[M-B-S]

Die Situation der Ölförderung in Großbritannien
23.01.2001: Eine Analyse der L-B-Systemtechnik zur Entwicklung der Ölförderung in Großbritannien für die ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil). Die Analyse zeigt sehr anschaulich eine Entwicklung, wie sie für viele Ölfördergebiete in aller Welt eintreten wird. Nachdem zunächst die großen und damit sehr rentablen Ölfelder ausgebeutet werden, kann nach deren Erschöpfung die Förderung nur mit einer sehr großen Anzahl kleinerer Felder aufrecht erhalten werden.

[M-B-S]

Bombe :



Ohne Gewähr !

Suche nochmehr Quellen

[M-B-S]

Der Preisanstieg liegt wohl an den Wetterprognosen in den USA für die nächste Woche !

Es soll wieder eiskalt werden, bei kritischen Oel -
Reserven !!!!!!!!!!!

[M-B-S]

Quelle Yahoo Friday February 2, 3:40 pm Eastern Time
U.S. Oil Soars Above $31 a Barrel
By Andrew Mitchell

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices raced back above the $31 a barrel mark on Friday on forecasts of cold weather in the U.S Midcontinent, where crude stocks are at record lows.

March crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange ended$1.37 a barrel higher at $31.19 a barrel, building on Thursday`s rise of more than a dollar and taking gains in the last sessions to nine percent.

The decisive upturn has pushed prices right back to the levels blamed for slowing U.S. economic growth last year, when NYMEX crude`s average of $30.20 was its highest for 17 years.

Producer cartel OPEC, whose mid-January deal to cut supply by five percent came into force from Thursday, has signaled

its determination to keep prices high despite signs that high energy costs are hurting economic growth.

U.S. oil supply remains tight with crude stocks across the U.S. less than three million barrels above 25-year lows struck last year, and at all-time lows in the Midcontinent.

Private weather forecasts predicted below normal temperatures next week and much-below normal temperatures by next Friday over the central U.S, although the heating-oil dependent Northeast is expected to see mild weather in the next week.

The cold forecasts helped pull U.S. heating oil -- which had fallen 30 percent since late November -- 4.3 cents higher to 82.14 a gallon.


OPEC KEEPS GRIP ON SUPPLY

OPEC`s early move to slice supply aimed to avoid being caught out by the threat that prices might slide when peak Northern Hemisphere winter consumption tails off.

Supply figures released this week showing a six million barrel build in gasoline inventories and a sharp fall in gasoline demand signal the fallout from high energy prices and wider economic worries, analysts say.

Record gasoline prices last summer, sky-high heating oil and gas bills this winter and the shock of California`s power crisis have all played their part in taking U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest point in more than four years.

While U.S. crude prices are still at the $30 a barrel level that Washington has said is unacceptable, a growing premium for U.S. crudes over other international oils means prices do not look so strong from the producers` point of view.

OPEC`s basket of crude oil is at $25 a barrel, right in the middle of the $22-28 range the group has agreed with importing nations it will target.

OPEC is willing to defend prices further by cutting supply if its crude basket should fall below the $22 floor.

``We just haven`t been able to take this market down,`` said Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas.

``Crude`s been rangebound for the last week or so wondering which way to go but with some cold forecasts, the interest rate cut and obviously going to defend its price floor, we`ve now broken higher,`` he said.

The impact of OPEC`s supply curbs has been strengthened by a long period of lower-than-normal exports from Iraq that has taken a huge chunk out of supply to the 76 million barrels per day (bpd) world market.

Iraq`s efforts to persuade its oil lifters to pay an illegal surcharge on U.N.-sponsored exports mean it has exported barely 4O million barrels since December 1, around 90 million barrels less than under its normal export rates.

Though Iraq has pledged to push exports back over two million barrels per day from 925,000 bpd in January Iraq`s surcharge demand has made selling the crude difficult, Iraqi industry sources said on Friday.

[M-B-S]

Oil back near $30
Karen Matusic


London - Oil prices rose to near eight-week highs on Friday as cold weather forecasts in the United States prompted very bullish trading on both sides of the Atlantic.

North Sea benchmark Brent Blend crude rose $1.09 a barrel to close at $29.15, extending Thursday`s $1.44 gains. The contract had traded as low as $27.70 earlier on Friday.

March NYMEX crude oil finished up $1.37 at $31.25 a barrel.

Brokers were surprised by the rally and some had scurried to change from selling to buying positions earlier in the session when it showed no sign of relenting, players said.

"To be honest I think a lot of people were wrong footed today," one trader said.

Some market players said they thought the market was overvalued but were hard pressed to predict a level at which it would drop off.

IRAQI UNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS PRICES

Traders said uncertainty over Iraqi exports and the prospect that Opec cuts would squeeze supply was keeping a floor under prices.

Opec`s decision to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from Thursday has so far kept crude within the group`s $22 to $28 target range, but officials have said Opec is willing to defend prices further if crude should slide out of the band.

"For the moment, the total loss of Opec oil...including Iraq...is a huge amount at this time of year," GNI`s Eagles said.

Analyst Mike Barry of London`s Energy Market Consultants (EMC) said if Opec maintains its cuts throughout the second quarter, supplies will be too low to keep up with demand.

"We don`t think people should be as bearish as they are. If Opec sticks to its agreement, things will be very tight by the end of the second quarter," Barry said.

Iraqi crude exports resumed on Thursday from the Turkish port of Ceyhan for the first time after a five-day break. Though Iraq has pledged to push exports back over two million barrels per day from 925 000 bpd in January, Baghdad may find it tough.

Iraq`s demand for buyers to pay a surcharge to circumvent United Nations` rules has made selling the crude difficult, Iraqi industry sources said on Friday.

"We are having difficulty placing our crude oil," said an Iraqi source.

For that reason Iraqi oil officials are reluctant to hazard a guess as to precise export levels this month.

WORRIES ABOUT US DEMAND

But demand worries continue to hang over the market. Not even this week`s cut in interest rates and the start of Opec`s five-percent production cut could spark buying interest.

Prices came under renewed selling pressure this week as unexpected steep builds in US gasoline inventories triggered fears that a sluggish American economy was already hurting oil demand.

Mild weather conditions in the northern hemisphere and increasing heating fuel stocks that have alleviated concerns of winter shortages have taken the shine off the market that hit 10-year peaks last year.

Poor profit margins in Europe have led some refiners to cut production. On Friday, Anglo-Dutch giant Shell said it was trimming output throughout Europe by up to 10%, effectively cutting its crude oil use by as much as 170 000 bpd.

[M-B-S]

SINGAPORE, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices on Monday held on to steep pre-weekend gains that sent U.S. crude back over $31 a barrel.
Prices have risen more than $2.50 in the last two sessions, but, with little change in fundamentals to back the run up, some traders worry that the market might be overvalued.

U.S. benchmark light crude hurtled almost $1.40 higher on Friday on predictions of a blast of cold weather in the U.S. Midcontinent.

The price ticked a slim two cents firmer by 0653 GMT to $31.21 a barrel on Monday.

A five percent cut to global supplies by the OPEC producers` cartel and erratic crude exports from Iraq have also lent a supportive hand to oil markets.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed back global supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day from February 1 to avoid any oversupply and potential price crash in the second quarter when winter demand wanes.

A economic slowdown in the United States, the world`s biggest economy, also is expected to affect demand for petroleum.

Indonesia, OPEC`s only Asian member, said at the weekend it would support further reductions to OPEC supplies because oil prices were likely to fall by the end of the second quarter.

"Usually demand is very bad in the second quarter," Mines and Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said in Jakarta on Saturday.

"OPEC will have to watch other factors such as Iraq`s oil. Indonesia will support further cuts to maintain a price range within OPEC`s targets," Yusgiantoro said.

OPEC has a preferred oil price target of $22 to $28 a barrel and officials have consistently reiterated that the group is willing to defend the range.

OPEC ministers are due to gather on March 16 to review the market.

Oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Mexico were due to meet their Norwegian counterpart in Oslo on Monday.

Saudi Arabia is the world`s largest producer and exporter, while Norway and Mexico are big non-OPEC producers, which joined OPEC in production curbs in 1998 when oversupplied crude markets slumped below $10 a barrel.

[M-B-S]

Saudi Minister says no need for world oil production cuts

Saudi Arabia`s oil minister, Ali al-Nuaimi, says there is no need for further cuts in global oil production.

The Minister says the market is currently selling at a reasonable price, recalling that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries had set a target price of about 25 dollars a barrel.

Saudi Arabia is the main exporter of oil.

In mid-January, OPEC decided to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day, effective from February 1st, to steady the market.

Earlier this week, Indonesia`s Mines and Energy Minister was quoted as saying Jakarta would back further cuts in crude oil production at the next OPEC meeting because of an anticipated decline in consumption


Fazit : Die Saudis rudern gewaltig zurück !


Aber gegen den Strom ist das sehr schwer !


SINGAPORE, Feb 6 (Reuters) - World oil prices steadied on Tuesday from a day-earlier 60-cent slide, awaiting latest weekly U.S. fuel stocks data for fresh impetus.
Crude futures on both sides of the Atlantic skidded lower on Monday as the world`s largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, said current prices were reasonable and there was no need for the OPEC producers` cartel to adjust output for the time being.

U.S. benchmark light crude was trading seven cents off at $30.48 a barrel at 0631 GMT after coming off 64 cents in New York on Monday.

North Sea bellwether Brent crude futures closed 74 cents down at $28.45 a barrel in London.

"The market is at a reasonable price level today and there is no need to take additional movements," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said after talks in Oslo with his Norwegian and Mexican counterparts.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reduced global supplies by 1.5 million barrel per day (bpd) on February 1.

Since the OPEC output cut agreement in mid-January, officials have vowed to defend oil prices with further production curbs should oil fall below the group`s target range of $22 to $28 a barrel.

The producers` cartel will meet to review the market on March 16.

Oil had a rollercoaster ride in the last couple of sessions. Monday`s decline partly countered a more than one dollar a barrel rise on Friday on forecasts of a cold blast in the U.S. Midcontinent.

That chilly spell failed to materialise.

Dealers will be eagerly awaiting fresh weekly data for fuel stockpiles in the United States, which is due to be released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) after the close of business in New York.

API figures last week, and those a day later from the Energy Information Administration, recorded massive gains of between five and six million barrels in U.S. gasoline inventories.

The data sparked fears that a slowdown in the world`s largest economy, which is also the biggest oil consumer, was beginning to adversely affect petroleum demand.

Consumption in Europe and Asia is already being to appear shaky.

While refiners in the United States are still enjoying healthy profits, several European plants have trimmed output of oil products as returns have slumped into loss-making territory. Asian refiners` margins are also starting to feel the pinch.

[M-B-S]

OPEC basket price up to Dlrs 26.79 a barrel
Vienna, Feb. 6, IRNA -- The price of OPEC`s basket of seven crudes
increased by 21cents and was Dlrs 26.79 a barrel Monday, compared
to Dlrs 26.58 Friday, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations
here, Tuesday.
The basket price in the last 30 working days in Dlrs:
Mon 25th Dec 21.50
Tues 26th Dec 21.66
Wed 27th Dec 21.87
Thur 28th Dec 21.47
Fr 29th Dec 21.75
Tues 02nd Jan 22.40
Wed 03rd Jan 22.61
Thur 04th Jan 23.25
Fr 05th Jan 23.51
Mon 08th Jan 23.30
Tues 09th Jan 22.84
Wed 10th Jan 23.69
Thur 11th Jan 24.23
Fr 12th Jan 24.43
Mon 15th Jan 24.62
Tues 16th Jan 24.59
Wed 17th Jan 23.66
Thur 18th Jan 23.93
Fr 19th Jan 25.02
Mon 22nd Jan 26.09
Tues 23rd Jan 25.33
Wed 24th Jan 25.39
Thur 25th Jan 25.22
Fr 26th Jan 25.14
Mon 29th Jan 24.99
Tues 30th Jan 24.56
Wed 31st Jan 24.66
Thur 1st Feb 25.13
Fr 2nd Feb 26.58
Mon 5th Feb 26.58
In January, the Basket price, like in December 2000, averaged
Dlrs 24.13 a barrel as opposed to Dlrs 31.22 in November, Dlrs 31.48
in September, Dlrs 30.42 in October, Dlrs 28.30 in August, Dlrs
27.94 in July, Dlrs 29.12 in June, Dlrs 26.94 in May, Dlrs 22.93 in
April, Dlrs 26.71 in March and Dlrs 26.84 in February.
For the 4th quarter of 2000, the Basket price averaged Dlrs 28.73
a barrel, as against Dlrs 29.17 a barrel in the third quarter, Dlrs
26.38 in the second quarter and Dlrs 26.11 in the first quarter.
For 2000 as a whole, the price of the Basket averaged Dlrs 27.60 a
barrel, compared with Dlrs 17.47 in 1999 and 12.28 in 1998.
The OPEC basket comprises Algeria`s, Saharan Blend, Indonesia`s
Minas, Nigeria`s Bonny Light, Saudi Arabian Light, Dubai of the United
Arab Emirates, Venezuela`s Tia Juana and Mexico`s Istmus Crude.
KZ/JH
End

[M-B-S]

31 $




Na, nimmt noch jemand Wetten an ?

[M-B-S]

Oil price rise as profits row rages
Jane Padgham, Evening Standard 9 February 2001

rude oil prices are creeping higher in commodity markets, threatening to stoke the controversy surrounding oil companies` record profits. The price of a barrel of Brent crude climbed above $30 on Thursday for the first time since early December. That took the gains since the end of January to almost $4 a barrel.

Today`s City News
• Byers set to rule on Lloyds-Abbey
• Oil price rise as profits row rages
• Market report: Friday 15.00
• Wall Street: Thursday close
• Monopoly fears stall Air Traffic
• Our new guide to an exciting, but neglected sector of the markets




The latest rise has been put down to a combination of the cut in production of 1.5m barrels a day by oil cartel Opec on 1 February, erratic oil exports from Iraq, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the cold snap in North America.


Today brent crude eased back to $29.60. However, further price rises are expected after Opec member Indonesia on Thursday night proposed more production cuts, amounting to between 1.5m and 2m barrels a day, at the cartel`s meeting next month.


Lawrence Eagles, head of commodity research at GNI, said:
`There is real concern that the US will not be able to build enough stocks ahead of the driving season which starts in June.`


Dearer crude could trigger fresh petrol price increases at a time when motorists are already paying through the nose for fuel. Shell and BP, Britain`s biggest oil companies, are already raking in profits of £2m an hour.


On Thursday Shell revealed profits of more than £9bn last year - up by 85% on 1999. BP is expected to announce profits of almost £10bn next week - a record for a British company.

[nippontrader]

down down down

Diese MBS - Horror und Ökothreads kotzen mich an!

An der Nasdaq gehen die Lichter aus -- Wird auch die Sonne erlöschen?

Unterkühlte Stimmung am NM! --- Steigen die Fernwärmewerte und Ölpreise?

Starke Drehung im DJIA --- drehen Windenergieräder schneller!

[M-B-S]

@ nippontrader

Hast du die falschen Werte ?

sunways 80 % im Plus

CÚ

[M-B-S]

[M-B-S]

Quelle BBC - Online : Friday, 9 February, 2001, 07:09 GMT
Oil climbs over $30 a barrel



The impact of Opec`s production cuts is starting to hurt

The benchmark price for the world oil markets, Brent crude oil, climbed to over $30 a barrel for the first time since early December on Thursday.
At the beginning of February, the oil cartel Opec reduced its production by 1.5 million barrels a day in order to reduce global supply.

The full impact of the cuts has led to the market being squeezed and the subsequent price rise.

The news comes at a time when oil companies are reporting record profits.

Lack of supply

Demand for oil, meanwhile, is going up. A cold snap in the central United States is driving demand for heating oil - which is derived from crude oil - to warm homes.



There has been a near-term shortage of crude oil
Clay SmithCommerzbank

Increased demand and Opec cuts coincide with fitful oil exports from Iraq, which have fallen below the 2.5 million barrels a day expected by the market.

In London, the Brent North Sea crude for March delivery peaked on Thursday at $30.12 a barrel, before easing off at the end of the day to close at $29.92 a barrel.

On Friday morning the price of oil slipped slightly off the $30 mark to rest at $29.60 a barrel.

More spikes ahead?

And the markets could move even higher on the back of news that Indonesia will propose a cumulative production cut of up to two million barrels a day at the next Opec meeting in March.

Last year, the average cost of a barrel of Brent oil was $28.5 - and peaked at just under $36 - dramatically higher than in previous years. Two years ago, one barrel had traded under $10.

Rising oil prices have led to grave concerns about growing inflation and recession, especially for developing countries which cannot afford to pay the higher price of importing oil to fuel local industries.

It also led to widespread consumer protests about the price of petrol at the pump last autumn.

And Thursday`s news that oil major Shell has reaped bumper profits of £9 billion - primarily due to the high cost of crude oil - will add to the heated arguments over oil prices.

[M-B-S]

Oil pumped above $30

Last updated: 08:25


Oil prices touched US$30 for the first time in more than two months this week as speculative buying dominated a market that is starting to anticipate supply tightness again.

Sporadic Iraqi exports have started to cause concern again, while bad weather in the North Sea held up production there.

supply tightness

CU

[M-B-S]

Der bis 2050 prognostizierte Verbrauchsanstieg im Verkehrsbereich: Für den Flugverkehr wird vom IPCC ein 2,7 - 9,4 facher Treibstoffverbrauch gegenüber 1990 erwartet. Der Kraftstoffverbrauch im Straßenverkehr wird laut einer Prognose des UPI bis 2030 etwa 2,5 mal so groß sein wie heute. Demgegenüber ist in rot die gesamte Weltölproduktion gegenübergestellt. Werden die Prognosen wahr, frißt alleine der Verkehr die gesamte Weltölproduktion auf, der Heizenergiebedarf käme noch hinzu! Verlagert sich der Heizenergiebedarf komplett auf Erdgas, ist auch diese Ressource wesentlich schneller erschöpft als prognostiziert. (Quelle: IPCC, UPI, Campbell, LBST)



Äqivalent 55 $ pro Barrel Oel !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Koppelung von Oel an Gaspreis ist auch in Deutschland gegeben
In den USA ist die Versorgungslage mit Strom, Öl und Gas extrem angespannt. Es gibt praktisch keine freien Produktionskapazitäten
Am schlimmsten war die Situation bisher in Kalifornien. Eine wesentliche Ursache dort ist die unvollständige Liberalisierung des Strommarktes. Der Endverkaufspreis wurde eingefroren, nur im Vor- und Zwischenhandel wurde eine Liberalisierung zugelassen. Nachdem nicht dem steigenden Strombedarf entsprechend Kapazitäten zugebaut wurden, mußte Strom zunehmend importiert werden. Der Stromimportpreis stieg jedoch einmal aufgrund der gestiegenen Nachfrage, und zum zweiten aufgrund der gestiegenen Gaspreise deutlich über den Verkaufspreis
Dadurch erzielten die beiden großen Versorger (Pacific Gas & Electric und Sourthern California Edison) innerhalb der vergangenen 8 Monate einen Verlust von ca. 11 Mrd $.
Die Vorlieferanten fürchteten um die Zahlungsfähigkeit und reduzierten die Lieferungen nach Kalifornien – dies spitzte die Lage dramatisch zu
Die Krise wird sich vermutlich in den kommenden Monaten noch weiter zuspitzen, da der sommerliche Strom- und Gasverbrauch entgegen den früheren Jahren eher noch zunehmen wird. Neue bereits im Bau befindliche Stromerzeugungskapazitäten, die den Engpaß im Stromsektor aufweiten sollen, werden für eine zusätzliche Erdgasnachfrage sorgen – dies ist keine Lösung des Problems
In Kalifornien gehen im Sommer 2001 etwa 1,8 GW an Gaskraftwerken ans Netz. Allein dies wird den US-Gasverbrauch bereits um fast 0,3 % anheben.
Die großen alten Gasfelder zeigen einen deutlichen decline, diese können nicht ausreichend ersetzt werden. Im Jahr 2000 ging die Gasproduktion trotz der angespannten Lage leicht zurück
Kanadische Gasimporte waren deutlich niedriger als erhofft. Auch dort zeigt sich der beginnende decline der Gasfelder. Vermutlich wird Kanada zunehmend die Gasexporte einschränken, um die eigenen Reserven zu schonen
Folie 13: US Gaspreise


Aufgrund der gestiegenen Nachfrage einerseits und der schwieriger werdenden Gasversorgung andererseits ist der Gaspreis dramatisch gestiegen. In den letzten Tagen des Jahres 2000 wurde er über 10 $ pro 1000 Kubikfuß gehandelt – dies entspräche einem Ölpreis um die 55 $/Barrel. (Heute liegt der Ölpreis zwischen 25-30 $ pro Barrel – Am Höchstand im Herbst war er bei 37 $/Barrel). In manchen Gegenden liegt der Gaspreis bereits über 20 $/Barrel.
Am Spotmarkt in Kalifornien wurde Gas teilweise mit 60 $ /1000 Kubikfuß gehandelt – dies entspricht einem Ölpreis um die 300 $/Barrel
Der Gaspreis in den USA zeigt bereits chaotisches Verhalten. Bei diesen hohen Gaspreisen wird der Druck auf den Ölmarkt weiter zunehmen
Entgegen den optimistischen Vorhersagen des Jahres 2000 drückt der hohe Ölpreis bereits deutlich auf das Wirtschaftswachstum. Dieser Druck wird durch die hohen Gas- und Strompreise verstärkt
Die Energiekrise in den USA beginnt gerade – sie ist Hauptursache für die beginnende Rezession
Eine schnelle Lösung der Krise ist nicht in Sicht
Dies kann sich angesichts der allgemein angespannten Ölversorgungslage schnell zu einer globalen Krise ausweiten




Die öffentliche Wahrnehmung

Es ist erstaunlich, wie wenig die Situation des Erdöls von der Öffentlichkeit aber auch von Politikern und der Wirtschaft zur Kenntnis genommen wird. Auch die aktuelle Benzinpreis-Diskussion hebt überhaupt nicht auf den Sachverhalt der Verknappung ab. Schuldige gibt es überall: Die Ölindustrie, die Ökos, die Politik ganz allgemein, die Ölscheichs. Unser persönliches Verhalten und unser verschwenderischer Umgang mit einer wichtigen Ressource wird kaum erwähnt. Gleiches gilt für die Tatsache, daß wir ohne Skrupel die Ressourcen zukünftiger Generationen verfahren und verheizen, obwohl wir die Technologien hätten dies zu verhindern.

Es gibt kein Grundrecht, das unseren Anspruch an arabischem Öl oder russischem Gas deckt! Wenn wir uns in diese Abhängigkeit begeben, so dürfen wir uns nicht wundern, daß uns dies von Kräften abhängig macht, auf die wir keinen Einfluß haben.

Die Qualität unseres Handelns sollte schon sehr genau festgehalten werden: Wir wissen, dass wir das Klima verändern, dass wir die Ressourcen plündern, dass wir mit den dabei entstehenden Abgasen unsere Gesundheit ruinieren und unsere Lebensqualität beeinträchtigen und wir haben die Technologien beides zu verhindern. Wir sind allerdings nicht bereit unser Geld in den Einsatz dieser Technologien zu investieren. Lieber kaufen wir immer schnellere und immer größere Autos. Trotz sparsamerer Motoren ist zum Beispiel der deutsche Durchschnittsverbrauch kaum gesunken. Höhere Leistungen und größere Autos haben die Reduktion im Verbrauch kompensiert.

Es besteht eine seltsame Einigkeit darüber, das Ressourcen-Problem mit dem Hinweis auf aktuellere Themen zu verdrängen und möglichst weit in die Zukunft zu verlagern.

Die Motive der einzelnen Gruppen sind allerdings ganz unterschiedlich. Die Ölindustrie selbst hat wenig Interesse daran, die tatsächliche Reservenlage zu veröffentlichen, schließlich möchte sie noch möglichst viele Jahre mit dem Öl verdienen - außerdem hat sie überhaupt kein Problem damit, weniger Öl zu höheren Preisen zu verkaufen. Die übrige Industrie hat sich wenig auf eine Ressourcenverknappung eingestellt und langfristige Probleme werden auch dort gerne verdrängt. Zusätzlich kann es aktuell tatsächlich ein Wettbewerbsnachteil sein sich als einzelnes Unternehmen auf eine neue Energieversorgung umzustellen - es hängt eben davon ab, in welchem Rahmen man plant.

Für die Politik sind Zeiträume von mehr als vier Jahren ebenfalls wenig interessant, obwohl sie eigentlich die Pflicht hätte, die Bevölkerung auch in der Zukunft vor Schaden zu bewahren.

Regierungsorganisationen wie die "Internationale Energie Agentur" (IEA) befinden sich im politischen Spannungsfeld vieler Interessen. Daher agieren sie entsprechend vorsichtig. Dennoch beginnt die IEA sehr zaghaft und etwas verklausuliert auf das Problem hinzuweisen. In den IEA Szenarien für eine zukünftige Energieversorgung - mit Zeithorizont bis in das Jahr 2020 - beginnt etwa ab dem Jahr 2010 eine schnell größer werdende Lücke zwischen Bedarf und Förderung. Diese Versorgungslücke schließt die IEA mit "balancing item - unidentified unconventional oil", also mit unentdecktem unkonventionellen Öl, das auf dem Papier zum Ausgleich der Bilanz von Angebot und Nachfrage eingeführt wurde. Was unkonventionelles Öl wirklich ist, darauf werden wir später noch eingehen. Viel wichtiger ist jedoch die Botschaft die hinter dieser Formulierung versteckt ist: eine Versorgungslücke die bereits 2030 der heutigen Weltjahresförderung entspricht und die aus noch zu entdeckenden Quellen geschlossen werden soll, kann niemand ernsthaft als beruhigende Meldung werten. Indirekt ist dies ein Hinweis darauf, daß dringender Handlungsbedarf besteht!
Zahlen zum Erdöl:



Bisherige Förderung: 820 Mrd. Barrel
Bekannte Reserven:


827 Mrd. Barrel
Was wahrscheinlich noch gefunden wird:


153 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1962: 41,0 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1997:


7,1 Mrd. Barrel
Jahresproduktion 1999:


22,0 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1993-97: 27,1 Mrd. Barrel
Produktion 1993-97:

Derzeitige Welt-Tagesproduktion


125,0 Mrd. Barrel

77 Millionen Barrel

Insgesamt auf der Welt förderbare Menge Öl: 1800 Mrd. Barrel

Die Differenz der Jahresproduktion zu den Zahlen in BP Amoco Statistical Review of World Energy ergibt sich aus einer unterschiedlichen Definition von Öl. Hier wird nur konventionelles Rohöl betrachtet mit einer Dichte > 17,5°API, da dessen Verfügbarkeit das weltweite Verfügbarkeitsmaximum von Öl bestimmt, während BP Amoco auch Schweröl (10 - 20 °API), Schwerstöl (< 10 °API), NGL (=Natural Gas Liquids), Kondensat, Teersande etc. mit erfaßt und nicht von konventionellem Öl unterscheidet.

Quelle: C.J. Campbell, 2000, BP Amoco Statistical Review of World Energy, Petroconsultants, LBST


Glücklicher Weise verschliessen nicht alle die Augen

[M-B-S]

Growth Of Oil Demand Slows, But Prices Hold
Associated Press
February 13, 2001

LONDON - The growth of world oil demand has slowed faster than expected in pace with a cooling global economy, but has yet to push prices lower, a respected industry survey said Monday.

World oil demand growth has fallen by 140,000 barrels a day, to 1.5 million barrels a day, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said Monday in its monthly report.

It predicted continuing volatility in oil markets because of moves by OPEC to cut production to keep prices high, and the consequent reduction in oil inventories.

"Over the short term, low stocks limit the ability to respond to events such as severe weather conditions, pipeline disruptions, unscheduled refinery maintenance, spikes in demand or fuel switching," the report said.

"This contributes to regional supply imbalances and price volatility. We lumber from one crisis to another."

The report said oil demand figures since October have fallen below expectations.

"Even January shows only modest growth, despite strong short-term substitution of oil for natural gas in North America."

High prices and mild weather in Europe and Asia are part of the story, but "the global economy is slowing, curbing demand," the report said.

The Paris agency is the energy arm of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which represents the interests of the world`s richest countries. It generally argues for keeping oil prices cheap and supplies plentiful.

Iraq`s production under the oil-for-food program reached 1.8 million barrels a day, approaching the peak of 2.3 million barrels a day in the autumn, the report said.

Gasoline prices rose 18 percent in New York and prices in northwest Europe and the Mediterranean went up about 10 percent, the agency said.

[M-B-S]

OPEC


Der Preis für Rohöl aus OECD-Ländern steigt

Der Preis für Öl der Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (OPEC) ist deutlich gestiegen. Ein Barrel, das sind 159 Liter, habe in der Vorwoche im Schnitt 26,86 Dollar nach 24,85 Dollar vor zwei Wochen gekostet, berichtete das Sekretariat des Kartells am Montag in Wien. Im Januar hatte der durchschnittliche Preis für OPEC-Öl 24,06 Dollar betragen. Am 1. Februar war die im Januar von den OPEC-Ölministern beschlossene Kürzung der täglichen Ölförderung um 1,5 Millionen Barrel in Kraft getreten. Der Ölpreis hat sich zuletzt wieder erholt, nachdem er im Dezember von mehr als 30 Dollar auf zeitweise unter 22 Dollar gefallen war. Grund dafür waren Befürchtungen eines drohenden Überangebots an den Ölmärkten gewesen. Nach Einschätzung der Internationalen Energie-Agentur in Paris wirkt sich die nachlassende Konjunktur in den USA nachhaltig auf die weltweite Öl-Nachfrage aus.

[nippontrader]

MBS
der grüne Bruder von Seuchenvogel und Roland Leuschel ist wieder unterwegs!

[M-B-S]

Risk to Oil Supply Will Grow
The Associated Press, Wed 14 Feb 2001 Email this story to a friend
Print this story
WASHINGTON (AP) — Global energy demand will grow sharply over the next two decades with continued reliance on Persian Gulf oil producers and an increased risk of supply interruptions, a panel of energy and global security experts warns.

While there will be growing dependence between energy suppliers and consumers, ``the risks posed by supply interruptions will be greater`` between now and 2020 than they have been in recent years, the panel said in a study.

``We are vulnerable to any event disrupting energy supply or demand anytime, anywhere,`` said Robert Ebel, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies energy project that development the report.

Ebel said at a news conference that U.S. energy policy must shift way from a domestic to an international focus to address future energy markets in which developing countries increasingly will compete with the United States and other industrial countries for oil.

Despite recent price and supply shocks, world consumers of energy, including U.S. policy-makers, have been too complacent about ``the fragility of reliable and timely (energy) supplies,`` the report said.

The result of a three-year world energy project by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the report was worked on by a task force of private and public-sector energy and global security experts headed by former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia and James Schlesinger, former energy and defense secretary in the Carter, Nixon and Ford administrations.

Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, who joined Ebel releasing the report, argued that global instability requires the United States to reduce its reliance on oil imports. With 56 percent of U.S. oil demand met through imports ``we are sacrificing our national security,`` said Murkowski.

By 2020, half of all the petroleum used by the world ``will be met from countries that pose a high risk of internal instability,`` the study said, predicting that a crisis, perhaps even military conflict, is ``highly likely`` in one or more of the world`s key energy producing countries.

Furthermore, it said that Iran, Iraq and Libya, each of which are under sanctions by either the United States or United Nations, are likely to ``play an increasingly important role in meeting growing global (energy) demand.``

While not commenting specifically on any of the three countries, the task force urged U.S. policy-makers to ``avoid the indiscriminate use of sanctions,`` saying they are ``not an effective policy tool`` and hinder needed energy production.

The study, however, did not focus on the question of imports vs. domestic production, although it predicted in the coming years ``U.S. net oil imports will continue their steady growth.``

Instead, it urges a series of policy directions aimed at developing closer ties to leading global oil producers and warns that only the United States will be able to ensure the continued flow of energy supplies.

The study questioned whether the United States, with its current commitments in northeastern Asia, will be able to respond militarily to an energy crisis in the Middle East, such as it did in the 1990 Gulf War.

Among other task force findings are that over the next 20 years:

— World energy demand will increase by 50 percent and at some point developing countries, led by China, will begin to consume more energy than the developed countries.

— The Persian Gulf will remain the key supplier of oil to world markets with its production expected to expand by 80 percent, but only with the help of foreign investment.

— Electricity will be the most rapidly growing sector with the greatest increase in Asia and Central and South America.

— Technologies must be found and developed to make use of fossil fuels environmentally friendly and still economical.

— There will be an increased threat of terrorist attacks on oil and gas pipelines.

``One of the ironies at the turn of the century,`` concludes the study, ``is that in an age when the pace of technological change is almost overwhelming, the world will remain dependent, during 2000-2020 at least, essentially on the same sources of energy — fossil fuels — that prevailed in the 20th century.``

quelle worldnews.com

Deutschland schläft

[M-B-S]

Danke Bush jezt erst recht !

[1Meyer]

@M-B-S

Du + Danke + Bush ?

Das kann dann doch nicht wahr sein !

[M-B-S]

@1Meyer

Danke Bush bezog sich auf meine Oelpreis These

Um Irrtümer auszuschließen !

[1Meyer]

@M-B-S

Die Richtung ist schon sonnenklar, allerdings nur über Jahrzehnte hinweg. Daher kann auch Nippontrader kurzfristig beruhigt weiter lästern. Solche grundsätzlichen Themen sind dann wohl eher was für den `Münchener Rück Thread` unter Allgemeines. Insgesamt sehr viel Substanz in diesem Thread, hast Dir richtig Mühe gegeben, mein Glückwunsch.
Grüße

[1Meyer]

Zu der Ölpreisentwicklung fällt mir noch der Spruch eines Scheichs ein, der sagte: Die Steinzeit ist auch nicht an einem Mangel an Steinen zuende gegangen.

Es gibt die reine Verteillogik (in der Zeit-zwischen den Generationen, Ost-West, Nord-Süd etc..; gewisser Hang zum Sozialismus) oder eine technologieorientierte Sichtweise (Brennstoffzelle, erneuerbare Energie ..)Die Realität wird da wohl eine Mischung finden, also nicht zu pessimistisch werden.

Wie hieß der Scheich?

Grüße

[M-B-S]

@ 1Meyer

Wenn wir schon beim Sprüche klopfen sind :


We are at the peak of the oil age but the beginning of the hydrogen age.
Anything else is an interim solution.
The transition
will be very messy, and will take many technological paths
...but the future will be hydrogen fuel cells.
------------
Herman Kuipers
Royal Dutch Shell
------------
We all share the responsibility for carrying out this project, for the assumption of responsibility is part of the dignity of human beings.
------------
Juergen Shrempp
Chairman
DaimlerChrysler

“Developing the use of hydrogen as a fuel would allow us to reduce road transport’s impact on air quality and help reduce our reliance on oil products."
European Union Commissioner Loyola de Palacio

"Technology is a real enemy for OPEC. Technology will reduce consumption and increase production from areas outside OPEC."
-- Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani

"We are living through the last days of the traditional oil company."
Peter Bijur, Texaco Chairman

"Given the closeness of the election, George Bush is not going to want to alienate the Green vote, particularly in places like Oregon, if he seeks re-election. The market anticipated a Bush victory and punished the [fuel-cell] stocks as a result. We believe the reaction was overdone. It creates one of the best buying opportunities we`ve seen."
Maureen Murphy, energy analyst at Lehman Brothers
December 18, 2000

mit Lösung

CU

[M-B-S]

Oil ends losing streak, OPEC cut back on agenda


Updated 1:11 PM ET February 16, 2001
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked higher on Friday, ending a five-day losing streak after a Gulf source said OPEC was leaning toward another output cut in March.
London Brent blend crude ended 25 cents higher to stand at $26.88 a barrel after dropping to two-week lows on Thursday following a string of gloomy economic indicators that are likely to mean slower petroleum demand growth this year.

U.S. light crude was trading 32 cents higher at $29.12 a barrel.

A Gulf source familiar with policy in OPEC giant Saudi Arabia said exporters would probably need another supply cut in March because they fear a global economic slowdown will stunt demand for cartel crude supplies.

"The ministers will most likely to decide to lower the production when they meet on March 17," the source told Reuters.

"Everybody knows OPEC is going to have to cut output eventually," commented an oil trader in London. But the oil markets remained sceptical that a further cut would come as early as next month, he added.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil of Algeria said this week that for the time being he saw no need for another output reduction when OPEC meets next month.

In January OPEC trimmed supply by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on the 77 million bpd world market and prices for a basket of OPEC crudes now are near the middle of the group`s preferred $22-$28 range.

Oil prices have fallen more than three dollars a barrel since Brent touched a two-month high of over $30 last week.

Since Monday, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2001 demand growth forecast by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million, the market had seen little reason to buy, traders said.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, later both showed the nation`s weekly crude stocks had risen last week.

The API put crude stocks at 290.74 million barrels, almost eight million above the level a year ago.

After a meeting with new U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and State Department officials, Khelil told reporters on Thursday OPEC was committed to meeting U.S. gasoline demand, expected to peak during the busy driving season in June.

"Our first objective is to respond to consumers` needs," said Khelil, who is also the Algerian energy and mines minister.

[M-B-S]

Oil prices up on report of possible OPEC cutback
NEW YORK -- Crude oil futures ended higher at the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.

News that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may cut production again at its next meeting in March lent support to the depressed petroleum complex.

"We saw profit-taking sparked by the news," said Mike Fitzpatrick, analyst at Fimat USA. "It gave people an excuse to take money off the table before the long weekend."

Trading in energy futures closed at noon CST Friday. The market will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

The March crude contract is set to expire Tuesday, and with book-squaring largely completed, analysts said the market`s focus already has shifted to the April contract.

Traders had accumulated short positions all week as they faced a slowing economy, declining demand growth, and fresh comments that producing countries aren`t likely to further cut output, analysts said.

A news report Friday said OPEC officials are leaning toward another production cut because they fear that oil demand will slacken as a result of the cooling global economy, and cited a Gulf source familiar with Saudi oil policy.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 36 cents to $29.16 per barrel and unleaded gasoline gained 1.03 cents to 86.45 cents a gallon. March heating oil was up 0.32 cents to 76.01 cents a gallon.

In natural gas trading, March futures fell 2.6 cents to $5.568 per thousand cubic feet.

Brent crude from the North Sea rose 25 cents to $26.89 per barrel in London trading.

[M-B-S]

Cartel will meet US gasoline demand during busy driving season -- Opec chief
REUTERS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington : Opec president Chakib Khelil said on Thursday that the US consumers can depend on the cartel to supply enough oil to be refined into gasoline to meet fuel demand during the busy driving season this spring and summer.
"Our first objective is to respond to the consumers`needs," Mr Khelil said, when he was asked if the United States should be concerned OPEC will cut production at its March meeting and push US gasoline inventories lower.The Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department`s statistical arm, warned earlier this month that US gasoline supplies will be low going into the driving season and wild swings in motor fuel could result.

"We`ll be there to meet those (US gasoline) needs," Mr Khelil told reporters after giving a speech at the Corporate Council on Africa.Mr Khelil expected other non-OPEC countries to also supply enough petroleum to meet US gasoline demand.

While Mr Khelil said he saw no need at present for further OPEC production cuts, he did not know if other OPEC ministers shared that position."I haven`t talked to anybody yet," he said, although he said Qatar`s oil minister had expressed similar reservations about another production cut.Mr Khelil, who is also Algeria`s energy and mines Minister, was in Washington to meet with US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and state department officials.

The United States is the world`s biggest consumer of oil, but a slowdown in economic growth means companies need less fuel for manufacturing and transporting goods. EIA recently trimmed its estimate for domestic petroleum demand growth this year to 1.7 per cent from a previous forecast of 2.5 per cent.

Mr Khelil did not think the EIA`s 150,000 barrel per day (bpd) downward revision in US Petroleum demand growth for this year would have much influence in OPEC`s decision on whether or not to reduce oil production."It`s peanuts. It`s not really going to affect demand," he said.

But Mr Khelil said OPEC ministers would look more closely at EIA`s March demand forecast, as well as the next monthly petroleum demand projections put out by the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which will be released just before the cartel`s mid-March meeting.

"They`re definitely going to be important this time," he said, referring to the two agencies` next petroleum demand reports.Mr Khelil also reaffirmed the cartel`s target $25 per barrel price for the group`s basket of crudes. "For us what is a reasonable price is a $25 OPEC basket," he said. "We don`t want to see $22. We don`t want to see $28. We just want to see our level there (at $25)."

Fazit : Opec gibt Oel - Verknappung zu !

Es ist Zeit auf solaren Wasserstoff umzusteigen bevor ....

[M-B-S]

Crude edges up as Opec hints at another output cut
London |Reuters | 17-02-01
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

Oil prices ticked higher yesterday, ending a five-day losing streak after a Gulf source said Opec was leaning toward another output cut in March. London Brent blend crude ended 25 cents higher to stand at $26.88 a barrel after dropping to two-week lows on Thursday following a string of gloomy economic indicators that are likely to mean slower petroleum demand growth this year.

U.S. light crude was trading 32 cents higher at $29.12 a barrel. A Gulf source familiar with policy in Opec giant Saudi Arabia said exporters would probably need another supply cut in March because they fear a global economic slowdown will stunt demand for Opec crude supplies. "The ministers will most likely to decide to lower the production when they meet on March 17," the source told Reuters.

"Everybody knows Opec is going to have to cut output eventually ," commented an oil trader in London. But the oil markets remained sceptical that a further cut would come as early as next month, he added. Opec President Chakib Khelil of Algeria said this week that for the time being he saw no need for another output reduction when Opec meets next month. In January Opec trimmed supply by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on the 77 million bpd world market and prices for a basket of Opec crudes now are near the middle of the group`s preferred $22-$28 range.

Oil prices have fallen more than $3 a barrel since Brent touched a two-month high of over $30 last week. Since Monday, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2001 demand growth forecast by 140,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million, the market had seen little reason to buy, traders said. In Singapore, the Asian crude markets were mostly firm yesterday with flagship medium sour Omani crudes establishing a footing.

[M-B-S]

Opec warns of supply cuts

Special report: the petrol war

Charlotte Denny
Tuesday February 20, 2001
The Guardian

Opec leaders warned yesterday that the oil exporters` cartel was poised to agree more supply cuts at its next meeting, adding to the turmoil in a market already alarmed by the weekend air strikes on Iraq.
The cartel`s secretary general, Ali Rodriguez said the supply restrictions could be up to a million barrels a day "in the worst case scenario".

North sea oil prices surged above $27(£18) a barrel, closing up 42 cents at $27.32 a barrel, as the markets digested Mr Rodriguez`s comments and the impact of the US and British strikes.

"Basically we`re up on the back of the Iraqi bombings," said one London trader at the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). "At the moment there is not really that much to worry about, but obviously if it escalates out there we`ll have to relook at that."

The market`s big worry is that the raid could provoke a regional oil embargo but there seems little danger so far of a coordinated response from the Arab states.

"While we would argue that the actual impact on oil supplies will be minimal, the news is certainly going to have unsettled the markets," said Lawrence Eagles, commodities expert with the GNI brokerage.

But hawks within the oil producers` cartel may find it easier to make the case for deep cuts at their next meeting on March 16th. Opec, which controls 40% of the 77m barrels of oil used each day, has a target price bank of $22-28 per barrel for a basket of its crudes.

Its reference price stood at $24.90 on Friday according to the Opec secretariat, but the cartel fears slowing demand as the northern hemisphere winter ends could push prices lower.

Asked whether Opec had already decided to announce a further reduction in output next month, Mr Rodriguez replied: "Not yet, but in any case there is an inclination, almost a conviction, that we have to cut production because normally in the second quarter there is a sharp drop in demand and, of course, prices."

Mr Rodriguez said global oil demand normally falls by 2m barrels per day from March to June, although Opec`s supply cut of 1.5m barrels per day in February meant the next cut would be smaller.

On the foreign exchange markets, the euro was in the ascendent yesterday, rising as far as 92.35 cents at one point, nearly 1% up on the day. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund over the weekend confirming that Eurozone growth should outstrip the US this year sharpened the market`s appetite for the single currency.

"People are getting unnerved about the US economy and are still very concerned about the outlook in Japan," said David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC Markets in London. "Given the ECB seems fairly confident about growth, the euro is benefiting and should continue to go up."

The euro`s rally is expected to continue on the back of growing confidence in the strength of the eurozone economies. Such expectations were reinforced after the G7 said on Saturday that growth prospects in the single currency region were favourable due to strong domestic demand, a point repeated yesterday by the head of the Bank of France, Jean-Claude Trichet.


Fazit : Neuer Cut ahead 30 $

[M-B-S]

OPEC may cut oil quotas
Economist believe an OPEC cut in oil production could damage world growth
February 20, 2001: 6:17 a.m. ET


LONDON (CNN) - OPEC`s deliberations to cut oil output in March could depress fragile world economies, commentators said on Tuesday.

Ali Rodriguez, the oil cartel`s secretary general, said on Monday there was "almost a conviction" among its members to cut production ahead of a forecast drop in demand in the second quarter of the year.

"Any move could be counter productive for OPEC," Julian Callow, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston, told CNN. "They need strong economies to maintain demand."

OPEC`s eleven members – Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela -- are heavily reliant on oil export revenues.

Callow predicts an OPEC cut could result in higher prices at the pumps, which could depress already weak consumer confidence. He said a $5 rise in the price of a barrel of oil would knock 0.25 percentage points from global economic growth, and boost inflation by 0.4 percentage points.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to avoid a repeat of a 1998 crash in oil prices, when a barrel of crude hit a low of $9.95, as a financial crisis in Asia began to bite.

OPEC, which produces 40 percent of the world`s oil, cut production by 5 percent, or 1.5 million barrels per day, in January in an effort to maintain the price of a basket of its crudes between $22 and $28.

Rodriguez said "in the worst case scenario" OPEC may cut oil production by up to a million barrels per day in March.

"OPEC is trying to micro manage the oil price at the upper end of the range," Peter Gignoux, an oil industry analyst at Schroder Salomon Smith Barney, told CNN.

Gignoux said OPEC is "trailing balloons" in an effort to reach a consensus among its members.

Analysts believe OPEC`s decision to cut production in January was reached before the last meeting and was merely rubber-stamped at the January 17 meeting in Vienna. Analysts expect more debate between now and the March 16 meeting before the cartel comes up with a consensus.

Brent Crude for April delivery slipped 3 cents to $27.28 a barrel on London`s International Petroleum Exchange on Tuesday.

[M-B-S]

OPEC inclined to cut production: Secretary-General
CARACAS, Venezuela: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is leaning toward cutting production during in semiannual ministers` meeting next month, the cartel`s secretary-general said on Monday.

OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said global oil demand could drop by two million barrels a day when warm weather sets in the second quarter. He added that the cut would not exceed one million barrels a day.

"Yes, the inclination.... Was that we need to cut oil, because during the second quarter there`s always a significant decline in oil demand," Rodriguez said during a radio interview from London.

Rodriguez, who is Venezuela`s former oil minister, made his statements one day after President Hugo Chavez met with Saudi Arabian King Fahd and Crown Prince Abdullah during a three-day visit to the OPEC heavyweight. A Venezuelan diplomat said the two OPEC leaders discussed market conditions and prices. Chavez will visit OPEC member Qatar on Wednesday.

Under Chavez, Venezuela has become one of OPEC`s most hawkish members. Chavez has recently rallied for prices to remain between $25 and $28.

OPEC sliced output by 1.5 million barrels a day last month in anticipation of a seasonal fall in demand in the second quarter.

Rodriguez assured that OPEC would consider new tensions in the Middle East and distribution problems in the United States before deciding whether to cut.

He added that OPEC was committed to keeping prices within its band mechanism - $22 to $28 a barrel.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed 36 cents higher at $29.16 barrels a day on friday. (AP)

[M-B-S]

Opec may cut in March even if price holds
London |Reuters | 21-02-01
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

Opec producers, keen to underpin oil prices, could push through another supply reduction when they meet next month even if crude values hold steady at current levels, Opec delegates said yesterday. Opec will move to slice output if they feel the market outlook demands fresh action to prevent a price fall, the delegates said. "In January we cut output because it was felt the market would come under pressure from a stockbuild," said one senior delegate. "We could do the same in March."

"We need to take a view ahead of the market rather than acting after the event," said another. "But it`s too early to say yet what the final decision will be." January`s decision propped up prices and Opec`s basket of crudes, the gauge it uses for assessing export values, now is priced at just over $25 - the middle of its $22-$28 target range. Opec Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said on Monday that producers now were considering a reduction of up to a further million barrels daily after January`s 1.5 million bpd cut.

The only dissenting voice so far has come from Iran, normally a price hawk. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said yesterday during a visit to Japan that Tehran was content with prices. "If prices are stable, we don`t need to act in March," said Zanganeh. But several in Opec, including leading producer Saudi Arabia, are worried that a second quarter stockbuild and a slowdown in world economic growth will dampen demand for crude imports. Market analysts said Opec`s strategy was designed to keep prices nearer the top end of the $22-$28 range than the bottom.

With the basket valued at a $2 discount to benchmark North Sea Brent and $4 below U.S. light crude that means consumers should be prepared for continued high import prices. "Opec`s 1.5 million bpd reduction illustrates the organisation`s newfound consensus to act preemptively in order to defend a $25 price for the Opec basket, while its commitment to protecting a ceiling is less firm," said Washington`s Petroleum Finance Corp.

"This stance reflects a broader agenda, with the organisation willing to risk high prices rather than prices below $25 for Brent despite warnings from consuming countries about the economic impact of such a strategy," it added. Meanwhile, new political alliances are helping Opec reap successes which eluded it for most of its stormy 40-year history. There was the time its ministers were kidnapped by Carlos the Jackal in Vienna. Bitter wars were fought between Iraq and its neighbours Iran and then Kuwait.

It survived these crises although years of cheating on its self-imposed production quotas and squabbling over output capacity left it powerless to control the volatile oil market. Now Opec faces an unfamiliar challenge - managing success. Founded in 1960, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries aimed to defend the price of crude. With prices double those of a slump in 1998, it appears Opec is finally delivering. "Opec has had a good run over the last two years. They have cracked it," said Mike Barry of London`s Energy Market Consultants.

Few people thought Opec would recover so quickly from the grim days of 1998, when crude crashed below $10 a barrel, putting enormous strain on the group to resuscitate the market and rescue revenues. But Opec has done more than that. With virtually all the world`s spare output capacity in its hands, Opec has become an efficient market micro-manager, creating tools such as its price band mechanism.

Under the band, if Opec`s basket of crudes stays below $22 for 10 consecutive working days or above $28 for 20 days, output can be adjusted by 500,000 barrels per day. Opec has become a bolder player in the market, adjusting output with unprecedented coordination, confidence and speed.Gone are the days when ministers spent hours behind closed doors accusing each other of quota-busting or lying about spare capacity. The new-look Opec gets down to business by peering over supply-demand forecasts and market analysis.

Despite opposition from major customers, the United States and Europe, Opec slashed output by 1.5 million bpd in January to thwart an expected seasonal fall in demand even though prices were well within its target range. The policy has worked and prices are very close to $25 - the middle of Opec`s preferred $22-$28 range.

Opec now is leaning towards another cut next month - a maximum million barrels daily according to Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez - because it fears an economic slowdown will hurt demand. The reduction could come even if prices stay close to $25 if the group believes supply curbs are needed to head off a price slide, underscoring a new flexibility and assertiveness."Credibility is a function of actions and right now all of their actions point to credibility," said Michael Rothman, analyst with Merrill Lynch in New York.

Opec`s tighter grip on the market could not have come without new political alliances between its most powerful members backed by heads of state. Saudi Arabia and Iran - once bitter rivals - have worked closely to stabilise prices since moderate Iranian President Mohammed Khatami came to power in 1997.

Ties have also improved between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, previously a chronic leaker, whose cooperation eliminated excess supply on world markets and helped last year to generate the biggest oil boom in 17 years. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, on a high-profile visit to the kingdom, is a strong advocate for Opec.

"The change in government in Venezuela fundamentally altered the chemistry within Opec. Before President Chavez`s inauguration, Venezuela was the leading destabilising force in Opec. Today it is the leading stabilising force," said U.S. energy consultant Philip Verleger. Luck has also been on Opec`s side.

Since most of Opec`s spare capacity is in Saudi Arabia, other members have been less inclined to fight over output quotas, the issue that discredited the organisation in years gone by. Opec`s biggest test now is whether it can manage its success. Keeping oil prices so high they crimp economic growth could backfire because it would hit oil demand. Some member states are already pushing to defend a price nearer to the top end of the $22-$28 range for Opec`s target basket, which averaged $27.55 per barrel in 2000.

"The biggest risk is that they push their luck keeping prices up too far," said Geoff Pyne, an analyst for Standard Bank. Higher prices would also encourage non-Opec producers to spend more on exploration and increase their own capacity. Opec could soon learn what countless analysts and economists have discovered - predicting oil supply and demand is not easy. It is also difficult to gauge the magnitude of the economic slowdown in the United States, the world`s biggest oil consumer.

"Supply and demand fundamentals have not tested Opec that much. We have been in a strong demand environment and non-Opec production has been lacklustre," said Gary Ross, chief executive of New York consultancy PIRA Energy. "They have had no major test yet. If the economy turns sour Opec will be sorely tested and then we will see if they are up to the challenge."

Mann ist doch Scheich ( gier ) 30 $

[M-B-S]

Crude slips despite possible Opec output cut
London |Reuters | 22-02-01


Oil prices eased yesterday despite mounting expectations that Opec could again rein in crude supplies when it meets next month. London Brent crude futures for April delivery last traded down 22 cents at $26.40 a barrel in technicals-related selling. U.S. light crude futures were off 28 cents at $28.53.

Dealers are focused on the strong possibility that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will in March impose its second supply curb this year after last week`s price slump on expectations of lower world oil demand. Traders are already predicting the size of a possible cut but some said the supply curb has already been factored into the market, meaning there would be a less dramatic market reaction if a cut is announced at Opec`s meeting on March 16.

Opec delegates said the cut could be up to one million barrels per day (bpd). "There is no doubt in my mind that Opec needs to, and will, cut again," said Nigel Saperia of oil trader Glencore in London. Opec has said it would move swiftly to stabilise prices and keep them in its target range of $22-$28 a barrel for its basket of crudes.

"If Opec doesn`t cut, the market will probably drop by up to $3 a barrel," said Saperia. Renewed tensions over Iraq have supported prices, although news of increased export flows assuaged some worries. Fears of an escalation after last Friday`s U.S. and British warplane attack on sites near Baghdad have faded, but traders said there were still concerns that an unpredictable Iraq could retaliate by cutting off oil supplies in the future.

"There is the possibility of a disruption in Iraqi supplies after the American attacks. There is a concern that Iraq could decide to halt exports," said Christopher Bellew of Prudential Bache. On Wednesday, the United Nations said Iraqi exports under the oil-for-food programme in the week to February 16 - the day of the attack - came to 1.54 million barrels per day (bpd), well up from the previous week`s dismal 229,000 bpd in exports.

Supplies continued to flow out of Iraq`s Mina Al Bakr port yesterday although lifting from Ceyhan, Turkey, has been on hold since last Friday, in part due to poor weather conditions. In Sinapore, the Asian sour crudes market grew softer yesterday with weaker sellers pushing Oman market down, despite emerging Chinese demand. Some sell pressure seeped in as the April market has been slow to trade despite kicking off with sporadic Japan demand over a week ago, traders said. "Buyers are really not in a hurry to move at all and some sellers just want to book profits and not fight for the last cent," one trader with an oil major said.

____________________________________________________________


When Will the Joy Ride End?
By Randy Udall, 1999

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BLACK MAGIC. During the last century oil has transformed the world. British coal launched the Industrial Revolution, but American oil put the pedal to the metal. No other material has so profoundly changed the face of the world in such a short time. Petroleum is black magic, the lifeblood of our civilization. The petroleum industry provides 40% of the globe’s energy and is humanity’s largest commercial enterprise. Oil is our most concentrated, flexible, and convenient fuel. Without petroleum there would be no automobile industry, no tourism. Without petroleum 2% of Americans could not feed the remaining 98%. But oil is more than energy. It’s the key feedstock for plastics, medicines, clothing, pesticides, paint, and thousands of other products. Fueling Toyota or fabricated into Tupperware, petroleum is the world’s premier commodity. Soon, experts say, world oil production will reach an all-time high, an apex, a peak. Then, after a short plateau, it will decline forever. What historians will someday call the Oil Era will last just two centuries. In 1998 we are closer to its end than its beginning.

THE OIL TRIBE. In 1859 oil was struck in Pennsylvania. The magic fluid unleashed Yankee ingenuity, put America on wheels, and helped to create the world’s richest superpower. The transformation was unimaginably swift: In 1859 Americans traveled on horseback; in 1969 they drove Mustangs and flew to the Moon. Today it is difficult to overstate oil`s importance to our economy. Four percent of the world`s people, we use 25% of the world`s oil. We are an Oil Tribe, the Petroleum Clan, imbibing about 3 gallons per person per day. The automobile is our most cherished icon, a new car our symbol of success. The local gasoline station is our secular temple where each week 150 million Americans "fill ‘er up." An average American drives 1,000 miles a month, 12,000 miles a year, the distance to the Moon every 20 years. The Oil Tribe numbers 265 million. Together we weigh about 34 billion pounds. Hungry for speed, addicted to motion, we consume our weight in petroleum every 7 days.



BLESSED BY GEOLOGY. Cheap oil has always been an American birthright. Through fate and geology, the United States was extravagantly blessed. Our original cargo was about 260 billion barrels; only one country, Saudi Arabia, had more. Oklahoma alone possessed more oil than Germany or Japan. California had more than Germany, Japan, France, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Italy combined. The U.S. has—or rather had—20 times as much oil as India, 16 times as much as Brazil, 3 times more than China. From 1859 to 1939 the U.S. produced two-thirds of the world’s oil. After Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in oil-starved desperation and Hitler failed to capture Russia’s Baku oil field, American petroleum, and the industrial output it nourished, triumphed in World World War II.




STRENGTH THROUGH EXHAUSTION. As recently as 1950 the U.S. was producing half the world’s oil. Forty-eight years later, we don’t produce half our own oil. Domestic production peaked in 1970, 27 years ago, and today we produce just 45% of the crude we consume. To fuel our economy we’ve drilled more and pumped longer than any nation on Earth, pursuing an oil policy that’s been called "Strength Through Exhaustion." Although the U.S. remains the world’s third largest producer, about 65% of our petroleum has been burned. It’s downhill from here.





LIKE DEATH AND TAXES. Perhaps for the same reason that State Farm sells life insurance rather than death insurance, oil companies shun phrases like extraction and depletion. Instead they prefer production, as in "Chevron produces oil." This implies that we can manufacture oil at will, the way we do jeans or computers. In truth, petroleum reserves are finite and depletion is a reality like death and taxes. Oil fields have been compared to track athletes whose best performance comes early in life. After a youthful sprint upwards, production peaks, plateaus, declines, and ends. Chevron speaks of the U.S. as "mature" or "aging." That’s mature, in the same way that 75 year-old golfer Arnold Palmer is mature. Tiny Kuwait, smaller than New Jersey, has three times the reserves of the entire U.S. To better grasp the concept of depletion, consider Pennsylvania.

PENNZOIL. Our most famous motor oil honors the state where the Oil Age began. Prior to the invention of the automobile, most oil was burned in kerosene lamps. For the first 25 years of the era Pennsylvania was the world’s leading producer. (John D. Rockefeller coined America’s largest fortune by cornering the Pennsylvania market.) In 1891 the Quaker State produced enough oil to light the U.S. for 7 months. In 1937, when its production reached a second lower peak, Pennsylvania supplied enough to run the now motorized country for 7 days. Today the state’s oil could power the U.S. for only 3 hours. Although there are still 19,000 wells in Pennsylvania, collectively they produce a puny 6,900 barrels each day. In contrast, Saudi Arabia produces 8 million barrels—1,100 times as much—from just 1,400 wells.



GUSHERS IN TEXAS. As oil prospectors, some of them retired whalers, continued to harpoon the Earth, oil was struck in New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, and then, Texas. Texas was a gusher, America’s first world class find. If Texas had been a sovereign country, its oil riches would have placed it in the world’s top ten. The state’s original reserves were 6 times greater than those of India, 4 times greater than Brazil, twice as large as Norway. Texas was big, as big as the braggadocio it came to symbolize. As thousands of men made fortunes in the oil patch, a new social class arose: the "oil millionaires." The Hunt brothers, George Bush, and Lyndon Johnson all made money in Lone Star oil. For the last 70 years the state has been America’s leading oil producer. But production in Texas peaked in 1972 and has been declining rapidly since. According to the American Petroleum Institute, about 80% of all the oil that will ever be produced in Texas is gone. This is not an anomaly. Thirty-one states produce oil and all are past their peaks. Oklahoma peaked in 1927, Colorado in 1956, Wyoming in 1970, Alaska in 1988.




SWISS CHEESE. Well, ok, if Pennsylvania and Texas are played out, why not drill more wells somewhere else? In fact, the U.S. is already one of the most thoroughly explored and drilled countries on Earth. Of the 4.6 million wells worldwide, 3.4 million have been drilled in this country. Very very few prospects remain. With the exception of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and a few deep water basins, we’ve been there and done that. From the oil industry’s perspective, the U.S. is Swiss cheese.

THE LAST HURRAH. The oil industry employs many smart, inventive, and creative people. In a quest to find more oil, the industry has developed a host of new exploration techniques, computer imaging software, and drilling methods. Many are being put to good use in the Gulf of Mexico. There, the oil majors are drilling in 5,000 feet of water—an astounding fact—with the likelihood that they will soon sink wells in 10,000 feet. Analysts expect the Gulf to be America’s last great bonanza. A mile under the ocean floor may lie 15 billion barrels. It’s a lot of oil, but only as much as the nation uses every 2.5 years.



HUNTING ELEPHANTS. Ghawar. Burgan. Safaniya-Khafji. Zakum. These are the strange, unfamiliar names of the four largest oil fields in the world. Oil occurs rarely in nature and when it does it’s often concentrated in large amounts. About 70% of the world’s petroleum is found in 370 giant fields, nicknamed "elephants" because they are so huge. Western civilization—life as we know it—is based on these elephants. In part because they are so big, the elephants were easy to find and inexpensive to produce. (To get oil out of Ghawar, for example, costs the Saudis less than $1 per barrel.) The discovery rate for elephants peaked in the 1960s. It’s getting harder and harder to find new ones. Indeed, many geologists believe that elephants are nearing extinction, that only a handful remain unfound.





THE COMING PEAK. In the same way that U.S. oil production peaked in 1970, global production is destined to peak during the first two decades of the coming century. Some analysts expect a peak around 2005; some suggest it will be 2010; others believe it will come as late as 2020. The exact date can’t be predicted, since it will depend as much on economic and political factors as on geology. The biggest wild card? Saudi Arabia, the world’s most prolific oil province. If the Saudis invest hundreds of billions of dollars they could double their output to meet expected demand. But they may decide not to double production, choosing instead to produce somewhat less oil and charge more for it. Although predicting the peak is impossible, this great turning point is imminent.

COLLISION IN SLOW MOTION. A decline in world oil production? The thought takes some getting used to. What seems impossible is inevitable. The crunch may arrive suddenly. Or in slow motion. As Reagan’s former Energy Secretary Donald Hodel says, "We’re sleepwalking to disaster." When it happens, journalists will shout, "We’re running out of oil." That’s not true. Rather, we are running out of cheap oil. After production peaks oil still will be readily available at a higher price, though in slowly declining amounts, for at least 50 years. What we face is not a short-term crisis but a chronic shortfall. No one will freeze in the dark (America still has a century of coal and 50 years worth of natural gas), but the transition to more expensive oil could be bumpy.

CRUDE CRUNCH. As global oil production nears the peak, oil prices will rise, perhaps overnight with staggering impacts on the global economy. This absolutely predictable, absolutely inevitable oil crunch will likely have tremendous economic impacts. Hitting as the Baby Boomers retire, it could rock our economy, psychology, and sense of self.

GIMME THAT OIL TIME RELIGION. Of course, not everyone agrees that we face an imminent crisis. (In part, it depends on how you define "imminent." Some people define it as "before I’m dead.") Business Week recently ran a cover article on global oil. The take home: don’t worry, be happy, Exxon has you covered. (Call CORE for a reprint.) Energy Secretary Pena talks hopefully about "reversing the decline in U.S. oil production." This is whistling past the graveyard. There’s not that much oil left to find in the U.S. That’s why the oil majors are trying to muscle in on Russia’s Caspian Sea, 9,000 long miles from home. How the Caspian qualifies as "our oil" I’m not sure. The Chinese need it as badly as we do. Nonetheless, Henry Kissinger and Dick "Desert Storm" Cheney are lobbying to gain U.S. companies preferential treatment.

ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL. There are many ways to soften the inevitable transition to a world in which oil is more expensive. They include more efficient cars, smarter land use planning, mass transit, and alternative fuels—but we won`t begin implementing them, at the local or national level, until we recognize that a grave problem looms. At the moment, this nation is asleep at the wheel. Time is short. If we want to retool our transportation systems, a world oil peak in 2010 or even 2020 is next month. A peak in 2005 is a train wreck tomorrow. But few are talking about this predictable development. Even fewer are planning for it.



ROAD WARRIORS. In 1900 oil married the automobile. Together they gave birth to a century of travel. Today oil is so thoroughly woven into the fabric of America that we can’t imagine life without it. Fish don’t worry about water and Americans don’t worry about oil. Instead we swim in it. Think of your life: the kid schlepping, commuting, and errand running. Skiing on the weekend, Thanksgiving at mom’s, a conference in Chicago, a jaunt to Vegas or Lake Powell, a Sunday drive to Grand Junction. I know middle-class Coloradans who do their Christmas shopping in Minnesota at the Mall of America. Texans drive 1,000 miles to shoot a Colorado elk, hunting-and-gathering taken to new extremes. Oil is fundamental to agribusiness: the average potato travels 750 miles. How long have people in Colorado been eating bananas grown in Guatemala and beer brewed in Germany? How much longer do you think? Will driving a Saab to Moab to go mountain biking be a weekend option in 2050? By then Saabs will get 80 miles to the gallon and so it might be. Then again, maybe not.


FROM THE CRADLE TO THE GRAVE.



More than half the world’s oil—and 70% of U.S. oil—will be consumed during a single human lifetime. That span happens to coincide with the Baby Boomer generation born after World War II. The graph at left shows the phenomenon. The Boomers were conceived as auto culture kicked into overdrive. As newborns, they were driven home from the hospital in a car. They grew up listening to songs like Mustang Sally and Little GTO. Getting a driver’s license was their rite of passage. During their lives many Baby Boomers will drive and fly a million miles, equal to 40 trips around the globe. Magellan and Amelia Earhart were the famous circumnavigators of their day. Now every man is Magellan, every woman Amelia.




SLICING THE PIE. Geologists estimate that U.S. oil production will ultimately total 260 billion barrels. A sliver of that pie was consumed between 1859 and 1949, the first 90 years of the Oil Era. A much larger slice—if we can call 70% of the pie a slice—will be used between 1950 and 2025. Our grandchildren and their kids’ kids will inherit what’s left. By 2025, when U.S. population will exceed 300 million, just 15% of U.S. oil will remain.

SNOOZE YOU LOSE. When our grandchildren ask where all the oil went, how will we answer them? We’re engaged in a one-time hydrocarbon feeding frenzy the likes of which the world has never seen before and will never see again. As someone who once drove a pickup truck to Patagonia I may not be the best person to ask, but is there a neglected ethical issue here? About a year ago I was standing on Main Street in Aspen when a semi drove by. Emblazoned in large letters on the side was a question: WE’VE SHOT ALL THE BUFFALO NOW WHAT DO WE DO? In 1872 there were 15 million bison roaming the Great Plains. A decade later only a thousand were left. Pelt hunters had ruthlessly slaughtered the rest. The heedless waste, the bloodthirsty savagery seems criminal today. I wonder if future generations will view our pell-mell liquidation of oil, arguably Earth’s most valuable resource, as equally senseless, shortsighted, and greedy. If there were a ready substitute that would be one thing. But there isn’t. In fact, there is no substitute for oil in the ways and volumes in which we use it today. Petroleum is a gift of geology, a one-time windfall—and we’re spending it like there’s no tomorrow.



LYRICS. Everyone has their favorite car song. Daddy took my T-Bird away… Every woman I know is crazy about an automobile… I’ve got the fastest wheels in town…. Mustang Sally, you better slow your Mustang down… I drove my Chevy to the levee, but the levee was dry… Oh Lord won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz. My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends…



CAR BOMB. You hear about the population explosion. And yes, the population has doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion since 1950. In the same period, car numbers shot up from 50 million to 500 million. Cars, in other words, are reproducing five times faster than people. They’re breeding like (VW) Rabbits.

WHO WILL FUEL CHINA? America was first to enter the Oil Age. We got a 60-year headstart on most nations. The developing world is racing to catch up. From Asia to Africa, three billion people crave the automobile lifestyle. Who can blame them? Mobility is wonderful. GM, Ford, and Toyota are building new plants in China, India, and Thailand. But Asia is oil poor. India has almost no oil. High hopes for new discoveries in the Tarim, a frontier basin in western China, have not been realized. The Chinese national oil company is investing in Venezuela, Gulf of Mexico, and Caspian Sea—a telling vote of no confidence in prospects at home. Without large domestic reserves it will be impossible for China and other densely populated countries to develop an oil-intensive lifestyle like Americans enjoy. If India and China used as much oil per person as we do, world production would have to triple. It can’t; there’s not enough oil. But if it could, all the globe’s remaining oil would be consumed within 20 years. After that… well, you wouldn’t have to worry about your next car payment. Looking ahead, the tremendous inequities in oil distribution—and consumption—are morally troubling and militarily worrisome. As oil depletion spreads worldwide, by 2015 five nations in the volatile Middle East will produce half the world’s oil. As more Asians take to the road and demand outstrips supply, oil prices will rise. Economic jousting for oil—who can pay most—is certain. Military confrontation can’t be ruled out. With America using three times more oil than any other nation, future generations of young Americans may again take to the battlefield for oil.



REALITY CHECK. Which nations have oil and which nations use it? Fully two-thirds of the world’s oil is in five Muslim countries. The chart at right explains why Iraq’s Saddam Hussein gets press, why the State Department frets about Iran, why the U.S. military did not leave Saudi Arabia after the 1990 Gulf War, and why we fought that war in the first place. (George Bush: "Our way of life is at stake.") America’s future, Japan’s future, Europe’s future, China’s future, Europe’s future…all are inextricably linked to the Middle East. In the deserts of Saudi Arabia, the U.S. military is building fortified air bases. Ostensibly we are there to protect our Saudi friends. In reality, we are an occupying force protecting our access to their oil. Some Saudis are resentful of our presence, as we would be if they were building air bases in Nevada. Would we leave their county if asked? I wonder. My son is 7. He’ll be 18, fighting age, in 2009, about the time an Oil Crunch may arrive.

OPEC REDUX. As the U.S. produces less oil, we must import more. Indeed, America imports more oil than any other nation uses. Uncle Sam’s appetite is humonguous, verging on gluttony. We import more than Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, Spain and Sweden collectively use. And why not, because at $15-$25 a barrel, imported oil is a steal. The tab for 1997 came to $67 billion, less than 1% of the nation’s gross domestic product. The bargain may not, indeed can not, last. As global population and oil demand rise, more and more people will be competing for less and less oil. By 2015, only a handful of nations will be exporting significant quantities, and a revitalized Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, our old OPEC nemesis, will be in driver’s seat again, able to control prices at will. Since Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait can sustain their projected production past 2020, the world will not suddenly "run out" of oil. But $16 a barrel will be a thing of the past.





SPORT UTES. In recent years, as oil prices have plummeted, Americans have fallen in love with gas guzzling minivans, light trucks, and sport utility vehicles. In Seattle Microsoft millionaires drive Humvees. Light trucks and sport utes command 45% of the new car market in the U.S., a powerful trend aimed in exactly the wrong direction. That these vehicles sell well is not surprising. They tower above traffic, can summit Everest, and are safe in a crash (good because sport utes have more than their share.) If they’re thirsty, so what? Gasoline costs are only 1/8th the total cost of driving. Driving a car that gets 30 miles per gallon rather than a 15-mpg sport ute saves about $520 a year—not much in many budgets. Americans care little about fuel efficiency because gasoline is inexpensive. In Europe motorists pay $3 to $5 a gallon. Most is tax, added by governments to encourage conservation. A Suburban has a 40-gallon tank. Filling up in Finland would cost 200 bucks. Needless to say, Finns shun Suburbans. Bargain-rate gasoline has a hidden cost, but we don’t pay it at the pump. Rather, we pay $50 billion in taxes to protect access to Persian Gulf oil, we pay in smog and premature deaths from air pollution, we pay in climate change. But when gasoline is less expensive than milk, Americans have little incentive to conserve. People aren’t dumb.

If gas is cheap, oil must be abundant. Big is best. If you have an Explorer I’ll get an Expedition. It’s a ‘fuels paradise." Party hearty.



A LIGHT GOES ON. "In America we consume the most energy per capita in the world. That’s got to change." Who said it? Not Ralph Nader or Amory Lovins. Rather, it was Louis Hughes, a General Motors vice president for international operations. The oil companies and automakers are beginning to understand that we must move quickly to develop a more oil-efficient economy. Toyota is selling 66-mpg cars in Japan. Honda is poised to follow. From a global perspective, oil is not a "sunset industry"—after all, 65% of the world’s petroleum remains to be produced. Nonetheless, oil companies are beginning to diversify. Royal Dutch Shell recently launched a renewable energy division and British Petroleum is making solar panels. The ultimate heresy: General Motors supports a 50 cent per gallon gasoline tax. In this case, what’s good for GM would be good for America.

SILVER BULLETS. Oil depletion is a slow, wasting disease. Is there a quick fix, a miracle cure? Actually, there are exciting new developments. They include technology for converting natural gas to a diesel-like fuel; horizontal drilling and 3D imagery to recover more oil from aging fields; cars powered by fuel cells that run on hydrogen rather than gasoline; telecommuting and other social changes that reduce oil consumption. All can buy time, delay the peak, and soften the transition that must follow. None, though, can cure depletion, or greatly reduce America’s dependence on imported oil. Technology shows promise, but the negative trends remain more powerful. Every day the world uses 73 million barrels and finds 15 million. Consumption up, discoveries down. Burning more than we earn—a surefire recipe for bankruptcy.

STOCK TIPS. Forbes and Fortune recommended oil stocks in 1995. In 1997 energy service companies were the stars of Wall Street. But maybe there will be another stock-buying opportunity. The economic turmoil in the Pacific, the Asian flu, will dampen energy demand for a year or two. With the collision between rising demand and limited supplies still five to ten years away, it’s a good time to travel. Fly to Baja, take a cruise, see Costa Rica. Life’s a journey, enjoy the ride. Around 2005 you might want to unload your shares in Winnebago.

SILVER BULLETS II. The physics of a Pontiac (or pickup) are abysmal. According to Rocky Mountain Institute, just 1% of the energy in the gasoline moves the driver. About 15% moves his steel shell, the 2-ton carapace. The remainder is lost in the engine, drivetrain and to wind resistance. This is actually great news, because it suggests there’s tremendous scope for improvement. Soon you’ll be able to buy a car that gets 65 miles per gallon. These clean, efficient "21st Century" cars may capture a third of the market by 2010. But adding 20 million fuel-frugal cars a year to a global fleet that may then number 800 million will have only a modest impact on oil consumption. Every little bit helps, but it will be decades before the world fleet is dramatically more efficient.



OIL IS ASPEN. Our ski economy is much more dependent on oil than snow. After all, we can make snow. At Buttermilk or Highlands or Ajax, oil’s importance is affirmed every few minutes as a loud jet accelerates down the runway. One in five Aspen skiers fly in from overseas. Economically, Aspen functions as a snowy suburb of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. How long can this continue? Decades perhaps, not forever.



DRIVING BLIND. Petroconsultants, a respected Geneva energy consulting group, recently concluded that by 2050 world oil consumption will be just one-fourth what it is today. Another oil expert, University of Colorado professor John D. Edwards, predicts that world oil production will peak in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. "If the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to increase productive capacity to these levels are not available, peak production will occur earlier. Planning without anticipating this trend is analogous to driving without a gas gauge."



TREX. Most people abhor change. Change is scary. Mentally, we tend to be prisoners of the past, hoping that the future will be just like the present, only more so. Abundant oil is all we’ve known. Cheap gas is a given. But this quaint assumption may soon take a beating. The silver miners who settled Aspen in 1880 didn’t drive Range Rovers. It’s a safe bet that Aspenites in 2090 won’t drive them either. If the average person has a car 50 or 100 years from now it will be dramatically more efficient and powered by hydrogen or electricity. The heyday of the guzzler is passing. The gargantuan 6,000-pound 14-mpg Expeditions that now rule the road are to the car as the T Rex was to the dinosaur: the end of the line.

PURE SPECULATION. Inexpensive oil is so deeply embedded in our economy, psychology, and even diet that it’s difficult to imagine a world in which oil will be more expensive. What would a sudden spike in oil prices mean for Aspen? Let me speculate, knowing I’ll probably get it wrong. An oil crunch might, where nothing else has, rein in the valley’s real estate boom. Some believe that the stratospheric prices in the upper valley are a speculative bubble waiting to burst. Our valley’s economy has proved remarkably resilient to other shocks, but this one could shatter Wall Street. An Oil Crunch would also slow tourism. Because only 10% of an airplane ticket pays for fuel, the direct effects would be dwarfed by the larger inflationary impacts. Psychology will come into play, too, since inexpensive oil buttresses the belief that growth is inevitable, stocks go up, and things get better. But, come what may, higher gasoline prices are not the end of life as we know it. After a rocky year or two or three of global recession, people will adjust, life will go on. Most Europeans already pay $3 or more per gallon; Americans presumably could, too.



DEBATING THE TRAIN. Over the last 70 years the automobile grew dominant because oil was cheap. All across America trains gave way to cars. Neighborhoods surrendered to suburbs. In the words of the song, we "paved paradise and put up a parking lot." In Colorado, too, the transportation network we see today is an artifact of abundant oil, an era that’s destined to end. With oil depletion in mind, the suggestion that we should remain auto dependent, construct underground garages, and six-lane Highway 82 seems like old think. Is our long-term vision driving cars fueled with gasoline on tires made of petroleum on roads paved with asphalt? Hell-o! To quote Marshall McLuhan, that’s like "speeding into the future while trying to steer with a rear-view mirror." The train may or may not make economic sense. But as we debate whether valleywide rail is a wise investment, our focus should not be 2008, a short decade from now. Rather it should be 2018 or 2028, when world oil production will be falling, as global population continues to climb. As we study rail, let’s not assume the status quo is sustainable, because it’s not. By 2025, driving alone 70 or 80 miles to work may be as obsolete as riding a horse to work is today.

HARD ROCK CAFÉ. Is there really no substitute on the petroleum menu? Our natural gas reserves wouldn’t last long if we burned them in both homes and cars, but what about all that oil shale near Parachute? Oil lobbyists will tell you there’s tons of "unconventional" oil tied up in Canadian tar sands, Venezuelan heavy oil, and Colorado’s oil shale. True enough, but that’s like saying hang gliders can substitute for airplanes. Producing unconventional oil has more in common with hard-rock mining than with typical oil production, where you crank a valve and let if flow. The former is a slow, arduous, energy-intensive process that will never replace a tenth of today’s conventional oil. Indeed, there’s some question whether oil shale yields more energy than it takes to produce it. If conventional oil is black magic, oil shale is fool’s gold.



FLOW, RIVER, FLOW. Every 24 hours the global economy burns 73 million barrels of oil. If you poured all that oil into a river it would be the size of the Colorado as it flows through Glenwood Springs. That modest river propels all motorized motion on the planet. Every car in Carbondale, China, and Chile. Every Boeing, every Airbus. Semis, autos, trucks, bulldozers, B-1 bombers, motorcycles, supertankers, tugboats, tractors, lawn mowers, snowmobiles, jet skis, snowblowers… if it moves it’s powered by oil. Looking ahead, oil demand is projected to increase rapidly. By 2010 most experts predict the world will be consuming 90 million barrels a day, 25% more than it does now. Sometimes between 2005 and 2020, world oil production will reach an apex, an all-time high, a peak. A plateau in production will be followed by a relentless inexorable decline.

DOOMERS & BOOMERS. World oil experts fall into two camps, pessimists and optimists. It’s striking how little difference there is between them. Both camps agree we’ve already used 800 billion barrels. The pessimists, or doomers, think there’s one trillion left and that oil production may peak by 2005. Boomers believe there’s 1.8 trillion left and that production will peak in 2020. If fifteen years is the only difference between pessimists and optimists, perhaps we ought to begin planning for a world in which oil is not as abundant as it is today.



LIFE IN 2050. By 2050 a world of perhaps 9 billion people will be consuming only as much oil as 3 billion did in 1950. There will be three times less oil per person. Oil will be more expensive. Is this a Doomsday message? Not necessarily. A more sustainable world may actually be a better place in which to live. The difficulty is getting from here to there.

WHY HAVEN’T I HEARD THIS BEFORE? Who would tell you? Exxon? Ford? Bill Clinton? "Remember my Bridge to the 21st Century? Well, there’s a big pothole on the far side. I’m sending Al over there right now to patch it up. When you hit that rough spot, remember Hillary feels your pain." Should Ronald Reagan have told us? "My fellow Americans, it is not morning in America. Actually, it’s getting on towards sundown." The Oil & Gas Journal publishes articles on oil depletion, but the coming crisis is not yet on the mainstream media’s radar. It’s astounding that, in a country like ours, which uses 25% of the world’s oil, no one is responsible for setting oil policy. The oil majors produce oil. Carmakers make cars. The Pentagon spends $50 billion a year safeguarding our "cheap" Persian Gulf imports. The U.S. Department of Energy cleans up nuclear bomb plants. If ignorance is bliss, this must be Nirvana.

SOURCES & INFO. This petroleum primer was written by Randy Udall, Director of the Community Office for Resource Efficiency, with Steve Andrews, a Denver-based energy analyst. Our numbers and graphs were derived from U.S. Geological Survey, British Petroleum, and American Petroleum Institute reports. Oil consumption to 1996 is historical record. Depletion curves and future consumption were extrapolated from conservative assumptions and personal interviews with world oil experts, including Chuck Masters, Neil Foreman, L.F. ‘Buzz’ Ivanhoe, Colin Campbell, Joseph Riva, and James MacKenzie. Different scenarios can be imagined, some uglier, some prettier. No one can predict the future. But, on the strength of our research, America can expect a wake-up call before 2020. It could come tomorrow. Even 2020 is only 8,000 days away, which, given the stakes, isn’t far. If you want more info call CORE. Good books: The Coming Oil Crisis by Colin Campbell and GeoDestinies by Walter Youngquist. CORE has the former ($25); to order the latter call [phone]. The Prize, Daniel Yergin’s classic oil history, is available in text or video at local libraries. Good Internet sites: http://ecotopia.com and http://energy.er.usgs.gov/products/papers/world_oil/index.ht… CORE will host a half-day seminar on world oil this spring [1999]. If you wish to attend, call for details.

The Big Question Site of the Week at Seven Wonders: Is there an oil crisis? When will the Joy Ride End? [February 14, 2001]


Fazit : Es wird kein billiges Oel mehr geben !

[M-B-S]

Oil rallies on fresh output cut moves


LONDON
OIL prices traded firmer on Wednesday as mounting expectations that the Opec cartel could again rein in crude supplies buoyed the market.

London Brent crude futures for April delivery stood 16 cents higher at $26.8 a barrel. US light crude was nine cents stronger at $28.9 a barrel.

Dealers are focused on the strong possibility that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will in March impose its second supply curb this year after last week`s price slump on expectations of lower world oil demand.

Traders are already predicting the size of a possible cut but some said the supply curb has already been factored into the market, meaning there would be a less dramatic market reaction if a cut is announced at Opec`s meeting on March 16.

Cartel delegates said the cut could be up to one million barrels per day

``The market is less bearish than last week because of the Opec cut but it is not bullish enough (to seriously push up prices),’’ said Christopher Bellew of Prudential Bache.

Opec has said it would move swiftly to stabilise prices and keep them in the cartel`s target range of $22-$28 a barrel for its basket of crudes. The oil exporters group`s last production cut of 1.5m bpd went into effect just 20 days ago.

Opec delegates said a cut could be agreed even if prices stay close to $25 — the middle of Opec`s preferred range — if the group believes supply limits are needed to prevent a price slide.

Opec secretary-general Ali Rodriguez said on Monday that there was ``almost a conviction’’ among producers for an output cut of up to one million bpd for the second quarter.

Renewed tensions over Iraq have supported prices. Although fears of an escalation after last Friday`s US and British air strikes on sites near Baghdad have faded, traders said there was still concerns that an unpredictable Iraq could retaliate by cutting off oil supplies in the future.

``There is the possibility of a disruption in Iraqi supplies after the American attacks. There is a concern that Iraq could decide to halt exports,’’ said Bellew.

Iraq President Saddam Hussein often uses Baghdad`s crude supplies as a political weapon to rattle the oil market and remind western powers that his country is still going strong despite a decade of stringent United Nations sanctions.

Trade volume in the oil market has been thin because many dealers are busy with Institute of Petroleum week, an annual industry function in London.

Prices may find some fresh direction after the American Petroleum Institute releases its latest weekly data on crude and product stocks in the United States on Wednesday.

``As always there will be a little nervousness ahead of the API`s tonight, but with American refineries coming out of the turnaround period, there could be less concern over any stock falls,’’ said GNI Research in its daily market report.

It may be mentioned that past week`s statistics had indicated a large buildup in energy stockpiles, prompting large falls in crude prices. — Reuters

Wer es glaubt ..............

[M-B-S]

Oil prices rise as US crude oil stocks drop

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LONDON Oil prices have firmed after a drop in US crude stocks reignited concerns about the effect of energy costs on the economic health of the world`s biggest petroleum importer.
Benchmark Brent blend yesterday rose 30c during morning trading in London to $26,67 a barrel, while US light crude gained 34c to 28,87. US crude remains about $3 below a peak last month when, according to a report from the US labour department, energy bills were behind a surge in US inflation.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed US crude stocks down 12-million barrels to 278,7-million in the week to February 16, putting crude inventories at their lowest level in 25 years and nearly 6-million barrels below this time last year. Dealers, though, said they were treating the data with a pinch of salt.

Price gains also were tempered by data for distillates, including heating oil, that showed stocks up 2,5-million barrels, for a 12,5-million barrel year-on-year surplus. Gasoline stocks rose 1,6-million barrels and now are 8,9-million barrels higher than a year ago.

Dealers said they were waiting for confirmation of the institute`s numbers. The data will serve as a reminder that stocks in the west remain tight despite last year`s series of production increases by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

Opec reduced supply again last month because it was concerned that stocks were building too quickly. Dealers said the latest data probably reflected the initial effect of the new cartel cutbacks.

The US inventory crunch will put the spotlight back on talk in Opec that the group`s mid-March conference might need to agree on another round of output cuts of as much as a million barrels a day.

The US labour department report said energy costs pushed US inflation up 0,6% last month and raised some doubt about whether the federal reserve can risk cutting interest rates again in the next.

Opec has said it will defend crude prices in the range of $22 to 28 for a basket of cartel crudes that on Wednesday was valued at 24,61. The basket is valued about 4 below US light crude.

Dealers also were keeping a watchful eye on Iraq, where exports, erratic in recent months, have continued despite bombings by the US and Britain. Reuters.



Oel-Aktie-Krise

[M-B-S]

Market watch: Oil prices climb on speculation of OPEC cut

By the OGJ Online Staff



HOUSTON, Mar. 2—Oil prices rose on international markets Thursday with a sudden reverse in speculation favoring a possible production cut of 1 million b/d this month by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.


Oil prices have trended down in recent weeks amid a general consensus that OPEC members would not agree to a reduction at their Mar. 16 meeting. But now traders apparently believe cartel members must take some firm action to halt the recent slide in oil prices.


Although there was no news from OPEC to support that speculation, analysis said, bottom-fishers entered the market to bid up oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Some technical buying also was triggered by signals that the market may have oversold during its last few sessions.


The April contract for benchmark US light, sweet crude gained 23¢ to $27.62/bbl on the NYMEX, and the May contract was up 18¢ to $27.68/bbl. Both continued to climb in after-hours electronic trading to $27.86/bbl and $27.88/bbl, respectively.


Home heating oil for April delivery advanced 0.7¢ to 71.61¢/gal. But the April contract for unleaded gasoline dipped 0.14¢ to 86.7¢/gal, while natural gas for the same month declined 5¢ to $5.19/Mcf.


In London, North Sea Brent oil futures scarcely had changed from the previous day’s close on the International Petroleum Exchange until midday, when trading was stimulated by activity on the NYMEX. The April contract for Brent closed at $25.85/bbl Thursday, up 28¢ for the day, after trading in the range of $25.40-$25.95/bbl. The April natural gas contract was unchanged at the equivalent of $3.39/Mcf on the IPE.


Most IPE participants apparently are still convinced there’s little need for OPEC members to increase production as long as current oil prices remain within their target range, analysts said.


On the Singapore exchange, the April contract for Brent crude rose 28¢ to $25.85/bbl. The May contract rose 26¢ to $25.97/bbl.


The average price for OPEC’s basket of seven crudes lost 17¢ to $23.64/bbl Thursday, still sliding toward the bottom of its target price range.

UP

[PDCFG]

@ M-B-S

Wär` mir auf Dauer zu langweilig, in meinem Thread wochenlang Selbstgespräche zu führen...

[M-B-S]

Bombe : On the impending decline of worldwide oil production

Alistair W. McCrone Sunday, March 4, 2001


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The WORLD is going out of the oil business.

Though mostly unreported in the mainstream press, this trend is documented by Water Youngquist and other scientists in scholarly and technical journals.

In the Oil and Gas Journal, C.J. Campbell reported in 1997 that while the world now consumes about 25 billion barrels of oil a year, we are discovering fewer than than 5.5 billion new barrels annually.

In Scientific American, Campbell and J.H. Laherrere observed in 1998 that the discovery rate of oil worldwide has been falling ever since it "peaked in the early 1960s." And about 80 percent of current world oil production "flows from fields that were found before 1973, many of which are declining. American oil production peaked in 1970.

World oil production per capita peaked in 1979. World population doubled to 6 billion between 1960 and 2000. According to well-researched estimates, world population continues to grow by some 200,000 people per day. This, plus increases in per capita energy consumption, virtually guarantees that the demand for energy, including that based on oil and natural gas, will accelerate.

Fuel and electricity are the most obvious products of oil and natural gas, but also consider these: fertilizers, a vast array of industrial and agricultural chemicals, medicines, plastics, paints and hundreds of other products that make possible the world`s current standards and styles of living.

Given current projections of production and consumption trends, we are nearly halfway through the time of oil. While worldwide demand continues to accelerate, worldwide production is predicted to begin to decline around 2010. After that, materials produced from petroleum, and economic and social structures supported by oil income, will have to be curtailed. This will occur slowly at first but with increasing swiftness within 50 years or less -- unless viable alternatives are found, developed and massively implemented.

Current electricity supply and price problems are but the beginning of consequent price increases on a much wider and larger scale.

Some try to maintain the illusion that OPEC members (Saudi Arabia and others) can meet world oil demand at will. The folly of this misconception -- which, in 2000, Campbell called the "myth of spare capacity" -- will become uncomfortably obvious in the near future when OPEC production begins to decline, with attendant price increases.

If we wish to sustain the living standards and styles of the developed and developing countries, we should do the following: Greatly intensify conservation efforts, develop our untapped national offshore and onshore oil and gas resources, use coal more broadly again as a major energy and by- products resource, develop solar and wind power much more extensively and reconsider employing nuclear energy for electricity -- all the while considering environmental impacts.

At best, these combined efforts will simply delay the inevitable demise of oil and natural gas as major sources of energy and their many beneficial byproducts. We must also keep in mind that large amounts of energy will be needed, at an increasingly high cost, to develop and implement such alternatives.

Ironically, such energy will have to come largely from oil and gas. Given our knowledge of available options (as displeasing as some people might view them), and given the time and cost to implement them, the conflict is bound to escalate between environmental activists and consumers and suppliers of energy resources.

Meanwhile, common sense demands that we adjust our living styles and adopt new standards of "quality of life" to reduce our thirst for oil and gas. If we do not make such changes voluntarily, we will doubtless be forced to when we are ill-prepared.

It is tragic that these realities have been ignored for so long by our political leaders, business planners and social policy makers, and that desperately needed public and private investment has seriously slackened in both conventional and alternative energy research.

As Aldous Huxley put it, "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored."

Now, in light of the facts, the need for responsible, aggressive and immediate action, including the development of a long-range national energy and population policy, is both essential and urgent.

Alistair W. McCrone, a former petroleum geologist, is president of Humboldt State University in Arcata.

· Printer-friendly version
· Email this article to a friend
CA POWER CRUNCH

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quelle : San Fransisco Chronicle

!!!!!!!LINK AUF OPECNEWS.COM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Wacht endlich auf !

[M-B-S]

Saudi Sees OPEC on Verge of Another Cut


By KEIKO TAKAGI, Reuters





TOKYO--OPEC oil producers who meet next week are likely to curb output for the second time this year despite crude prices that already are close to the cartel`s $25 a barrel target, a senior Saudi source said Tuesday.
"The possibility of cutting production is very, very high," the Saudi source, familiar with official Saudi oil policy, told Reuters on the sidelines of an energy seminar in Tokyo.
OPEC`s most influential producer, Saudi Arabia has been pressing the group to consider slicing output again because it fears a downturn in global demand in the second quarter will hurt petroleum export revenues.
"We want to maintain $25 a barrel," the source said, referring to OPEC`s reference basket of seven crudes.
That means prices of about $27 for the higher-quality benchmark North Sea Brent and $29 for U.S. light crude. The OPEC basket was valued at $24.52 Monday.
The Saudi source declined to comment on the magnitude of any cut, saying only that oil prices, supply and demand, and inventory levels would be taken into consideration.
Saudi Arabia, normally the most cautious of OPEC producers, appears to have the support of the rest of the cartel for another round of supply cuts.
The leaders of Iran, OPEC`s biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, and Qatar said Monday they too favored steps to boost oil prices.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Vienna on March 16 to decide policy after easing output by 1.5 million barrels daily, nearly six percent, in January.
ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
Since then oil markets have been rattled by signs of a global economic slowdown, especially in the world`s biggest energy consumer, the United States.
A sluggish U.S. economy has eased petroleum demand there and in countries dependent on North America for industrial export markets.
Many analysts have downgraded projections for oil demand growth this year, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the West`s energy watchdog.
The Paris-based IEA, in a series of revisions in recent months, has cut its world demand growth outlook from 1.9 million barrels daily to 1.5 million bpd, expecting total world demand this year of 77 million bpd.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi will meet on March 12-13 in Riyadh with his counterparts from OPEC member Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico to discuss output strategy.
Mexico is an ally of OPEC`s in propping up oil prices and although it is not expected to reduce exports it has put a curb on raising supplies.

Ihr glaubt doch wohl nicht, daß die Oelpreise weiter fallen
werden ? Man ist doch Scheich ! 30 $

UP

[springbank]

@ M-B-S: Ich will Dir ja glauben, dass an der TU Clausthal, der einzigen Hochschule mit zwei Wintersemestern, der Oelpreis eine grössere Rolle spielt als anderswo, zumal das Holz im Harz auch immer weniger wird.

Ich glaube ja auch den Prognosen, dass Oel in zehn Jahren wasweissichwie teuer sein wird. Kurzfristig werden die Oelpreise aber mit den Wetterprognosen und den Lagerbeständen in den USA gemacht, hier gibt es aber bald natürliche Entwarnung. Mittelfristig spielt noch die Weltkonjunktur die grösste Rolle, das haben wir ja 98 gesehen, als der Verbrauch in Asien zurückging und Überkapazitäten der Produktion, die auch hemmungslos ausgefahren wurden (selbst die Saudis brauchten Geld), den Preis gedrückt haben.

Fazit: Die Entwicklung des Oelpreises lässt sich langfristig, und damit meine ich Jahrzehnte, viel deutlicher vorhersagen, als auf das nächste halbe Jahr.

[M-B-S]

OPEC plans fresh cut in output

AMID fears of a downturn in global oil demand in the second quarter of the year, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is warming up for another cut in output, the second since the year began, to shore up prices. OPEC members, including Nigeria, will on March 16 meet in Vienna, Austra on the future of the oil market, despite crude prices that already are close to the cartel`s $25 a barrel target, a senior Saudi source said yesterday.

"The possibility of cutting production is very, very high," the Saudi source, familiar with the country`s oil policy, said at an energy seminar in Tokyo, Japan.

OPEC`s most influential producer, Saudi Arabia has been pressing the group to consider slicing output again because it fears a downturn in global demand in the second quarter will hurt petroleum export revenues.

"We want to maintain $25 a barrel," he stressed, referring to OPEC`s reference basket of seven crudes.

That means prices of about $27 for the higher-quality benchmark North Sea Brent and $29 for U.S light crude. The OPEC basket was valued at $24.52 on Monday.

The source declined to comment on the magnitude of any cut, saying only that oil prices, supply and demand, and inventory levels would be taken into consideration.

Saudi Arabia, normally the most cautious of OPEC producers, appears to have the support of the rest of the cartel for another round of supply cuts.

The leaders of Iran, OPEC`s biggest producer after Saudi Arabia, and Qatar said on Monday that they too favoured steps to boost oil prices.

OPEC will meet in Vienna on March 16 to decide policy after easing output by 1.5 million barrels daily, nearly six per cent, in January.

Since then oil markets have been rattled by signs of global economic slowdown, especially in the world`s biggest energy consumer, the United States.

A sluggish U.S. economy has eased petroleum demand there and in countries dependent on North America for industrial export markets.

Many analysts have downgraded projections for oil demand growth this year, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the West`s energy watchdog.

The Paris-based IEA, in a series of revisions in recent months, has cut its world demand growth outlook from 1.9 million to 1.5 million bpd, expecting total world demand this year of 77 million bpd.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi will meet on March 12-13 in Riyadh with his counterparts from OPEC member Venezuela and non-OPEC Mexico to discuss output strategy.

Meanwhile, oil prices held firm on Tuesday, hanging on to most of Monday`s gains.

Benchmark Brent blend crude was at $26.62 at 1030 GMT, having dipped a few cents from Monday when the market gained over half a dollar.

U.S light crude was at $28.55 a barrel, also a few cents below the day-earlier close in New York but substantially higher than last week`s close of $27.84.

The Brent market rallied 76 cents on Monday, driven up by cold weather in the northeast of U.S and speculation that OPEC would agree to fresh output curbs.

[Lockencop]

Der Rohölkurs hat einen Trendbruch gesehen und dürfte weiterfallen. Nach einer kurzeitigen
Erholung ist ein Abwärtspotential bis 21/22 $ gegeben.

Wir werden ja sehen, ob Lockcop den Ölpreis wieder drücken kann.

Lockencop

[M-B-S]

Oil rises as U.S. crude stocks stay tight


Updated 5:55 AM ET March 7, 2001
LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices made gains on Wednesday on data showing U.S. crude stocks sinking back to 25-year lows and renewed calls from OPEC for another output cut when the cartel meets a week on Friday.
London Brent rose 13 cents to $26.60 a barrel and U.S. light crude gained 23 cents to $28.55.

Crude was lifted by new data for U.S. fuel stockpiles, which showed crude inventories down 3.9 million barrels to 275.8 million barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said U.S. crude tanks were almost 15 million barrels below the lean stocks at the same time last year, marking the lowest level since 1976.

Den Amis gehen die Oel-Reserven aus ! 25 Jahres Tief !

Opec kürzt Fördermengen => Preissteigerung

[M-B-S]

U.S. oil prices energized by 1970`s-style crude stocks
Reuters Company News - March 07, 2001 17:11


By Timothy Gardner

Auszug :"
NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil prices shifted higher on Wednesday after government data confirmed oil stocks sank last week to their lowest depths since 1976.

April crude futures gained 68 cents to $29 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, taking gains so far this month to $1.50 barrel amid expectations that OPEC producers will tighten supply again when they meet next week. The American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude oil stocks fell 3.9 million barrels last week to 275.8 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1976 when they were 265.8 million barrels. The Department of Energy on Wednesday confirmed the draw, showing a 2.7 million barrel decline last week.

U.S. crude stocks are now barely two percent above the 270 million barrel level that the National Petroleum Council says is needed for the U.S. oil system to work smoothly.

The lowest crude stock level on record was 230 million barrels in February 1974. "That`s where you get into post Arab oil embargo levels," John Felmy, statistician at the API, told Reuters. "

Die geringsten US - Reserven seit 1974 ! Und das ohne
Embargo !

Interessant auch, daß der IRAK einer der Hauptlieferanten der USA ist, das lässt die BOMBEN - Angriffe auf den Irak in einem anderen Licht erscheinen !

Irak hat nämlich die Lieferung an die USA zugunsten eines
formidablen Oel-Schmuggels über Syrien zurück gefahren !

Die Bomben waren wohl die Antwort auf ein solches treiben

[M-B-S]

"Our energy demand outstrips our supply.
We can produce more energy at home while protecting our environment, and we must.
We can produce more electricity to meet demand,
and we must.
We can promote alternative energy sources and conservation, and we must.
America must become more energy-independent,
and we will."

-- George W. Bush, U.S. President

February 27, 2001

[M-B-S]

OIL TO STAY ABOVE $20, SHELL EXEC SAYS

Dow Jones News Service
March 9, 2001
MEXICO CITY -- World oil prices will be lower in 2001, but they are likely to remain above $20 a barrel, a top executive of Royal Dutch/Shell Group told reporters Thursday.

"Predicting oil prices is a hazardous business . . . but the expectation for this year is the oil market will remain fairly volatile, with prices likely to remain above $20 a barrel [of the OPEC basket]," Paul Skinner, managing director of oil products for the Anglo-Dutch giant, told reporters on the sidelines of the Hemispheric Energy Conference in Mexico City. The Shell Group is the world`s second-largest publicly traded oil company.

Skinner said increased doubts about the level of Iraq`s production will contribute to price volatility.


Tja Zahltag ! die 18 $ sehen wir nie wieder

[M-B-S]

U.S. Eases Pressure on OPEC Over Oil Price

By Susan Schneider and Manuela Badawy

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham (news - web sites) said on Thursday the United States would let markets dictate oil prices, signaling a move away from previous U.S. efforts to influence policy in the OPEC (news - web sites) producer cartel.

``I believe the market should drive these things, and that`s the American position,`` said Abraham, who was in Mexico City for a conference of energy ministers from the Americas.

Abraham was speaking after meeting with Alvaro Silva, energy minister of OPEC big gun Venezuela, ahead of the cartel`s ministerial meeting next week which is expected to reduce supply by up to one million barrels per day (bpd).

Abraham`s comments signal an abrupt departure from the high-profile efforts of his predecessor, Bill Richardson to persuade OPEC producers to relax world supply in the interests of consuming nations` economic growth.

Abraham said that U.S. did want to not pick a target oil price and reiterated that the United States would opt for quiet diplomacy with OPEC, instead of public discussion.

``Our position is not to pick a price...our position is to encourage markets to be allowed to work,`` Abraham said

``At the same time, certainly, nobody from any perspective wants to have such unpredictability in markets or in prices that it skews things in a way that can hurt our economy,`` he added.

Abraham`s comments came one week ahead of an OPEC summit in Vienna, where the cartel appears ready to approve another round of supply cuts as they bid to stop prices falling when peak northern winter demand falls away.

Venezuela`s Silva said OPEC wanted to keep prices near last year`s levels, when the group enjoyed the biggest market boom in nearly two decades.

``We, OPEC, prefer a price of oil above $25 a barrel,`` Silva said on the sidelines of the Mexico City conference. ``Over $25 has not produced problems in the world economy.``

The price of OPEC`s basket of seven crudes rose to $24.88 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. higher-quality light crude oil futures closed at $28.30 a barrel on Thursday.

Über 25$

[M-B-S]

opec faces delicate task on oil cut

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

London: Opec oil producers are walking a tightrope on how much further they can afford to rein in crude output to maximise revenues without harming a fragile world economy. Opec sources say a production cut of at least 500,000 barrels a day (bpd) almost certainly will be agreed when the 11-member cartel meets in Vienna next week.
But unclear supply-demand data, worries about the impact of high oil prices on the economy of the United States, the world`s biggest fuel consumer, and erratic crude flows from Iraq look likely to push a final decision to the wire.

"The issues are lining up right now but there needs to be a much broader economic analysis discussion lest mistakes be made," said Peter Gignoux, head of the London energy desk at Schroder Salomon Smith Barney.

Price hawks Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia may push for a cut close to a million barrels daily to keep Opec`s basket crude near the top end of the group`s desired $22 to $28 a barrel target.

But worries that prices too high could dent demand mean the cartel more likely will reach a compromise cutting by about 750,000 bpd at the March 16 talks.

"The big picture is the slowdown in the US economy and what that will do to demand," said an official at an Opec-State oil company.

"With that in mind, they probably can`t take the risk of cutting as much as a million and that much isn`t warranted anyway to keep prices where they want them. I`d say around 700,000 bpd looks most likely."

"Prices could collapse if Opec makes a cut of less than one million barrels per day," said a senior analyst close to an Opec hawk. "Market conditions are very fragile."

Cartel heavyweight Saudi Arabia, the world`s largest oil exporter, is mindful of the possible effect on its main market and is wary of pushing prices too much above $25.

"The Saudis are torn between putting Opec unity at the top of its priority list but assuring the United States that it can leak a sensible amount of oil out to keep prices not far from $25," said Geoff Pyne, an oil consultant for Standard Bank.

Though the United States is taking a low-key approach to its dealings with Opec - in sharp contrast with the aggressive lobbying of former Energy Secretary Bill Richardson - the Bush administration has made it clear that $30 is too high for the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate, sources say.

Opec must make good on its pledges to cut production again to defend its target prices, traders say, or face a sharp price fall. Failure to cut at all could push the crude price down as much as $3, they said.

"Opec needs to make a preventive small cut. It is all about perception," said Roger Diwan, an analyst at Petroleum Finance Company in Washington.

Though Opec argues that a cut is needed to thwart a seasonal fall in demand, some analysts and consumer governments point to low stocks and say a high price will encourage companies to delay restocking.

"I think the market doesn`t need a cut at all but Opec could probably get away with 500,000 bpd. A cut will keep the market extremely tight at a time when restocking normally takes place," said Standard Bank`s Pyne.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), set up in 1974 to protect the interests of major oil consuming nations, has criticised Opec for trying to keep prices at the top end of its preferred $22 to $28 range regardless of economic condition.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said lofty energy prices have exacerbated the US economic slowdown.

"Opec seems to ignore supply-demand fundamentals and concentrate on headline price moves. They are setting themselves up for a series of production cuts to maintain their price target," Mr Pyne said.

Hinweis 2015 verfügt der sog. Westen über keine eigenen Oel-Reserven mehr !

[wofeind]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Börsenanalyst]

Der Trendbruch hat stattgefunden. Kurzfristig hat das Rohöl Platz bis 20/22$.

Gruß

Börsenanalyst

[M-B-S]

Die verdammten Oelscheichs

Verdienen sich dumm und dämlich !

Neue Kürzung in Sicht

[M-B-S]

US oil prices higher

NEW YORK, March 24: US crude oil rose sharply on Friday amid early worries about summer gasoline supplies and as Mexico announced a cut in exports to support Opec`s attempt to shore up prices.

Crude oil for May delivery ended up 76 cents at $27.30 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), while April gasoline futures ended up 1.54 cents at 92.50 cents per gallon.

Fears of tight gasoline supplies this summer mounted this week after the US Department of Energy data showed Wednesday that stocks dwindled by 3.4 million barrels last week.

We have continued worries about the gasoline situation for the summer - that has never really gone away," said Tom Bentz, analyst and trader at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc.

Inventories of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an additive for cleaner US gasoline, are running 22 per cent below this time last year, possibly setting the stage for another summer spike at the pumps.

Retail gasoline prices hit record highs in the United States last summer as refiners struggled to meet demand for new clean-burning grades.

Oil prices had fallen more than five dollars in little more than a month amid fears that demand for oil may further decline in the United States if the economic slide persists. We`re retracing some of the losses that we`ve seen over the last month, Bentz said.

Mexican Energy Minister Ernesto Martens said on Friday that his country will cut petroleum exports by 40,000 barrels a day (bpd) beginning April 1.

Mexico followed Opec`s lead, which agreed last weekend to cut output by 1.0 million bpd, or four per cent, in an effort to protect prices from fears of global economic slowdown fanning out from the US.

It was the oil cartel`s second production cut of the year, after 1.5 million bpd were axed in January.

The market is in a recovery mode anyway, with or without the Mexican news, Bentz said. The market has to prove that it can get back above $27.75 and then perhaps we`ll see some short covering that could fuel a further rally.

Rising Iraqi crude exports could undermine efforts of Opec to keep prices stable within its $22-28 a barrel range for a basket of seven crudes.

Sanctions-bound Baghdad lifted UN-monitored sales to 2.56 million barrels a day last week, the highest since October. Sales had been running below capacity as Iraq tried to secure unauthorised surcharges from buyers.

Opec`s reference basket was priced at $22.85 on Thursday, below the group`s $25 preferred target. April heating oil ended up 4.07 cents at 76.70 cents per gallon.-Reuters


ich sag es ja das Tief ist erreicht ab jezt up

[Plus]

M-B-S
Man Junge, Du gibst Dir ja Mühe!!
Aber bitte nicht wahnsinnig werden.

Ab Fördertiefen unterhalb 3000m unter Meeresspiegel lagern Ölreserven, die bsw. die USA für 200 Jahre mit Öl versorgen könnten. Der technologische Wettlauf zur Erschließung dieser Reserven hat bereits vor Jahren begonnen.
Zudem ist die OPEC keinesfalls daran interessiert den Ölpreis über 25 $US steigen zu lassen, weil sonst Förderländer ins Spiel kämen, für die es sicht ab diesem Verkaufpreis lohnen würde, die Förderproduktion zu beginnen.
Natürlich nehmen die Ölvorkommen ab. In gleichem Maße könnte jedoch durch technologischen Fortschritt und entsprechendes umdenken, der Weltverbrauch gesenkt werden. Das alles müsste auch die OPEC wissen. Durch eine exorbitante Verteuerung der Ölpreise würden sie sich selbst vernichten.

Gruß

[M-B-S]

@ Plus

Wenn du die Beiträge gelesen hast, müsste Dir aufgefallen sein, daß nicht kurzfristig das Oel zuende geht, sondern darum, daß die maximale mögliche Fördermenge die maximale Nachfrage nicht mehr decken kann ( BSP Sept-Okt 2000 ) ! Ergebnis 35 $ das Barrel !

Dies führte u.a. dazu, daß B. Clinton die strategischen Reserven freigeben musste !

Fakt !

Dieser kritische Zustand wird sich in Zukunft häufen und verlängern !

CU @ 35 $

[M-B-S]

Oil prices rise in Asia, wary of U.S. gasoline shortfall

March 26, 2001 2:00am
Source: Reuters


SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices continued to track higher on Monday in a follow through to Friday`s strong rally driven by concerns over summer gasoline supplies in the United States.

U.S. benchmark light crude traded 11 cents firmer at $27.41 a barrel in electronic dealings in Asia. Crude soared 76 cents in New York on Friday to close at $27.30, the strongest close since March 13.

Friday`s rally appeared to mark the end of a six-week oil price slide that at its lowest point had wiped $6 off a barrel of crude.

Part of the recovery was fuelled by worries that there could be a repeat of last year`s summer gasoline spike in the United States.

U.S. drivers paid record prices at the pumps during the 2000 peak summer driving season as refiners struggled to meet demand for new cleaner-burning grades.

U.S. gasoline inventories are running slightly below last year`s lean levels and stocks of methyl tertiary butyl ether, an additive for green U.S. gasoline, are 22 percent under a year ago.

Gasoline concerns, combined with OPEC`s recent decision to cut crude output for the second time this year, helped oil to resist some of the fallout from last week`s plunge in global stock markets.

But the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will still be disappointed that prices failed to go further up following the recent output pact, which brings OPEC production cuts in 2000 to a total 2.5 million barrels per day.

Non-OPEC Mexico, the world`s fifth largest producer, gave its backing to OPEC on Friday by announcing an export cut of 40,000 bpd, or 2.3 percent of production. ^ REUTERS@

Der Sommer 2001 = Sommer 2000

[Lockencop]

Nur die Ruhe bewahren.
Der Ölpreis ist in den letzen Wochen deutlich zurückgekommen!!!
Im Februar lag der Rohölkurs noch bei 30$, jetzt nur noch bei 24$.

Das Öl hat die Unterstützung bei 23$ getestet und dürfte eine
technische Reaktion bis max. 26$ vollziehen!!!
DENNOCH befindet sich das Öl im Rückwärtsgang!

Gruß

Börsenanalyst

[M-B-S]

Strong demand boosts oil price



London – Oil prices were pulled higher on Monday by strong demand for crude-based products in Britain and the United States.

The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for May delivery rose to $25.71 from $25.38 at the close on Friday.

In New York, the May light sweet crude contract rallied 76 cents on Friday to $27.30.

The basket price of seven crudes worldwide used by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to help set output quotas rose to $23.52 on Friday from $22.85 on Thursday, the Opecna agency reported.

At GNI brokerage, Robert Laughlin said that crude prices had followed gasoil higher.

"The gasoil has been very strong in Europe ... partly on the back of the strength in heating oil in New York on Friday night as there seems to be an unusually large demand for diesel," he said.

Crude prices also benefited from a partial recovery of world stock markets, which had reduced the risk of global recession and a slump in demand for crude, analysts said.

Warm anziehen , die Rakete startet !

Strong Driving season ahead !

[M-B-S]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Lockencop]

Aktuell liegt der Ölpreis bei 24$, wie man dies auch auf dem Chart sehen kann!!!





Da verdichtet sich nichts. Was soll das??? Wir haben Frühling, die Nachfrage geht natürlich
deutlich zurück und der Ölpreis befindet sich im Abwärtstrend, wobei ein kurzzeitiger Schub
bis 26$ im Abwärtstrend nichts außergewöhnliches ist.

Gruß

Lockencop

[M-B-S]

Die Lage ist ernster als wir wissen ! USA droht OPEC


USA drohen OPEC mit anti trust Gesetzen !


OPEC could be charged with price fixing if U.S. Congress approves new bill
WASHINGTON (AFX) - Two senior U.S. lawmakers have authored a bill which will enable U.S. antitrust authorities to bring actions against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for collusive practices in setting the price of oil.

The lawmakers authored the bill in the wake of a federal investigation into gasoline price spikes last summer across the Midwest.

In a joint statement, Democratic Senator Herb Kohl and Republican Senator Mike DeWine, chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Anti-trust, Business Rights and Competition, said "higher oil prices drive up the cost of transportation, harming thousands of companies throughout the economy from trucking to aviation."

The legislation, which could be brought against any foreign states, "would, for the first time, enable our authorities to take legal action to combat the illegitimate price-fixing conspiracy of the oil cartel."

"As long as OPEC is allowed to control the world`s energy supply, we are guaranteed to have more and more of those supply shocks and therefore more and more problems for American consumers," the senators said in their statement.

The legislation will enable lawsuits in U.S. federal court against organisations like OPEC by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

The lawmakers authored their bill following an FTC probe into sharp price spikes in the retail cost of gasoline across the Midwest last summer which saw prices in Chicago rise 15 pct over the course of a month to 2.13 usd a gallon during late June 2000.

Following a six-month investigation, the FTC said earlier today that it "found no credible evidence of collusion or other anti-competitive conduct by the (U.S.) oil industry, the investigation found that a combination of many factors was likely responsible for the price spike."

Despite this, the FTC did say that "there were, however, some strategic choices by some oil companies (which it declined to identify) designed to maximize profits that contributed to the temporary price increases."

Sources close to the investigation have told AFX News that the FTC probe was focusing on BP Amoco PLC, Marathon Oil, Koch Industries, Tosco and Citgo among others.

The agency said primary reasons for the spike in gasoline prices included refinery production problems, pipeline disruptions and low inventories, as well as secondary problems like high crude oil prices which contributed to the low inventories.



heavy driving season ahead !

[Lockencop]

Lockencop hat den Ölpreis unter Kontrolle!!! Nur die Ruhe bewahren.

Momentan seitwärts. Aktuell bei 23.60.



Gruß

Lockencop

[M-B-S]

Oil Industry Slow to Prevent Gasoline Spike


By RICHARD VALDMANIS, Reuters





NEW YORK--The U.S. oil industry is in a race against time to prevent a repeat of last summer`s gasoline supply crunch, but so far has done little more than stumble over the starting mark.
With the beginning of peak demand driving season only two months away and pump prices already rising, national gasoline inventories have sagged more than five percent from last year`s paper-thin levels.
Experts now predict that even the most startling of revivals in the industry would be too late to prevent a 10-to 20-cent surge in pump prices by summer, bringing the average national gasoline price as high as $1.65 a gallon.
The outlook recalls painful memories of last summer`s record spike which pushed average prices over $1.60 a gallon, drawing motorist ire, inciting political finger-pointing, and triggering a federal investigation into oil company collusion.
But it also compounds a larger energy problem in the U.S., where electricity shortages in California threaten to leave residents in the dark, and where the Bush Administration has led a charge into the Alaskan wilderness to reduce dependence on foreign oil.
"We have about two months to improve (gasoline) inventories before drivers start hitting the roads again," said Sarah Emerson, analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc (ESAI) in Boston. "Frankly, I think that`s very short."

COMPOUNDED PROBLEM
The problem derives from a complicated mixture of low production at the nation`s refineries due to routine repairs, sagging imports due to high prices overseas, and tougher summer environmental fuel regulations.
To make matters worse, oil cartel OPEC, which represents 40 percent of global crude oil supply, enacted its second production cut of the year April 1 -- a move expected to keep crude oil prices robust in the coming months.
The regions most vulnerable to the high gasoline prices this summer are the Midwest, where a key Illinois refinery was closed, and the Northeast due to fast-thinning supplies. California is also expected to be hard hit because of its tough air quality standards.
The solution would be a swift revival of U.S. refinery production from its current lows and a resurgence in overseas imports -- but even the most die-hard optimists say such a shift would only temper a price spike, not prevent it.
"There`s reason to believe that the U.S. refining infrastructure will be back and running strong by the end of the month," said Ken Miller of Purvin and Gertz Inc in Houston. "But we can still expect rising prices into the early summer."
U.S. refinery utilization unexpectedly fell about one percent last week to its lowest level since March 2000, indicating that many plants are still shut down for planned maintenance work.

GREEN RULES ADD COSTS, CUT IMPORTS
The shortness of domestic gasoline production is unusual this late in the season and has left the nation`s supply in the unable hands of foreign exporters, whose tankers have grown fewer and farther between.
Gasoline imports dipped more than 50 percent last week due to competitive prices overseas, and analysts say only a surge in price here would succeed in drawing them back.
The lagging imports are more significant this year due to unexpectedly high U.S. gasoline demand, running roughly three percent ahead of last year despite a downturn in the economy and projections of a weakening appetite to drive.
In addition, analysts say tighter environmental regulations in Europe will likely mean a decrease in the country`s exports of summer-grade anti-smog gasoline, used at a third of U.S. pumps, and an increase in exports of dirtier grades.
"The surplus of the dirtier grades will go to eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, and in some cases the U.S.," said Aaron Brady of ESAI. "The problem with it is that it requires blending to make it match up to our standards."
A number of U.S. gasoline blending companies have either eliminated or reduced their production of cleaner summer grade gasoline for fear of infringing on patents owned by California energy company Unocal Corp., which has already sued a handful of majors.
Making cleaner gasoline has also become more difficult due to higher costs and lower supplies for blending components like methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and octanes.
"So we may pick up barrels from Europe, but it has become a more complicated issue than it used to be," said ESAI`s Brady.

Fazit : Die Amis kaufen europäische Reserven auf ! Das wird teuer im Sommer !

[Lockencop]

Der Ölpreis steigt!!!

ABER NUR UM 1$, nachdem er 8$ gefallen ist.
Natürlich ist kurzfristig ein Potential bis 26$ gegeben, aber mittelfristig befindet
sich der Ölpreis im Abwärtstrend, außerdem geht die Nachfrage zurück.



Fazit: Mittelfristig wird der Preis weiter nach unten zeigen.

Gruß

Lockencop

[M-B-S]

OPEC to cut output if price falls below $22
CARACAS, Venezuela: OPEC is determined to cut production by another 500,000 barrels a day if oil prices falls bellow $22 barrel, a top Venezuelan oil official said Tuesday.

"Sure, we will cut if the price falls below $22 a barrel," Deputy Oil Minister Bernardo Alvarez told Dow Jones Newswires.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries operates under a self-imposed band system designed to keep its group of seven crudes between $22 and $24 a barrel. The cartel has informally agreed to cut production by 500,000 barrels a day if prices stay below the band for more than 10 consecutive days. If prices remain above the band for 20 straight days, the OPEC increases production by the same amount.

The OPEC benchmark closed at $22.53 Monday, the most recent price available. On the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday, crude for delivery in May rose 60 cents to $26.19.

Alvarez added that Venezuela will begin complying with OPEC`s latest production cuts by the end of the month. OPEC`s 10 member countries agreed last month to reduce their collective production by 1 million barrels a day in an effort to prevent a global economic slowdown and a traditional seasonal drop in oil demand from triggering a price slump.

Under the agreement, Venezuela has to slice its production by 116,000 barrels a day. (AP)

Neue Kürzungen ahead !

[M_B_S]

US may change oil import policy


By Syed Rashid Husain

RIYADH, April 10: There are growing signals from Washington that the new US administration is in the process of deciding whether it is in the interest of the United States, as a major oil-importing country to continue pursuing a policy of low oil prices, pundits in Dhahran believe.

It seems there is a lobby in the new US administration insisting on drastic changes in the overall direction of the US energy policy to curb the decline in the country`s domestic production and stimulate an increase in production capacity both within and beyond its borders. This step, this lobby insists, is essential to meet the future growth in its own oil demand and that of other growing economies around the globe.

Already one could notice a lessening of pressure on oil exporting countries to increase the production and hence keep the prices at a considerably lower level than today. Not long ago, before any anticipated move by OPEC, the former US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson of the Bill Clinton era, used to be in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, if not the other regional capitals, so as to ensure that the US interests are taken care of. Although the new policy is still in the process of being formulated, analysts in Dhahran are already pointing to signals in that direction.

Since the Gulf war in 1990-91 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union resulting in the disappearance of the Soviet threat to the oil fields in this region, the United States` insistence on security of supply as driving its oil policy has considerably diminished. There has been a lot more emphasis since then on low oil prices so as to keep fuelling the engine of the US economy. In a presentation at the 15th World Energy Council conference in Madrid in September 1992, then US Secretary of Energy in the Carter administration James Schlesinger summarized the new US policy of maintaining low oil prices. "What the American people learned from the Gulf war is that it is much easier to go and kick ass in the Middle East than make sacrifices (on prices) in order to limit America`s dependence on imported oil," he was quoted as saying then.

The new policy, however, had its negative impact as well. It resulted in a significant depletion of the US crude oil reserves and hence production. It was thus also accompanied with a dramatic increase in oil imports into the US.

Over the past 20 years, the US proven oil reserves have thus fallen by 42.1 per cent, dropping from 37.5 billion barrels in 1980 to 21.7 billion barrels in 2000. At the same time, the production has also shrunk by 41.6 per cent, from 9.96 million barrels per day to 5.82 million barrels per day - the lowest level since 1958.

Taking into account the increase in consumption, net oil imports have steadily increased, rising from 6.25 million b/d in 1980 (equivalent to 38.5 per cent of total US consumption) to some 10.2 million barrels per day in 2000 (57.4 per cent of consumption).

According to Energy Information Administration of the US, net oil imports are projected to rise to 12.8 million barrels a day in 2005 and 15.3 million b/d in 2015, resulting in a further increase in the United States` dependency ratio of 65.9 per cent in 2005 and 69.4 per cent in 2015. Thus in 15 years or so, the US would alone be absorbing the equivalent of the total volume of oil, currently exported by the Middle East.

This development is thus of great concern to many senior members of the Bush administration. The US oil industry is well represented in the new administration and they seem to be carrying their weight in any new oil policy being currently framed. The administration is thus taking the warnings seriously that the US is becoming excessively dependent on the imported oil from the Middle East. The level of supplies from this region is already around 25 per cent of the total US imports and is set to rise rapidly in the coming years. It also reflects the fact that the world oil production is not expanding fast enough to meet the future growth in demand, which as per the International Energy Agency (IEA) is expected to increase by 37 million b/d to 114.7 million b/d in 2020.

It is thus very much likely that in view of the above, the United States would soften its low oil price policy that it has been pursuing over the past years. It looks increasingly in favour of stabilization of the global oil prices at around $25 a barrel; very much in line with the OPEC`s stated price level. There is thus congruence, after all these years, in the policies and the objectives of the oil producing states and the world`s major oil user, the United States.

It is believed here that this viewpoint could also have impact on the US sanctions regime on a number of countries including Iran, Libya, Sudan and Iraq. The Iran-Libya sanctions (ILSA) passed in 1996 is due to expire in August 1996 and in every likelihood it may not be renewed, specially in view of the current thinking process in Washington.

There are also growing indications that sanctions on Iraq may also be softened. The Arab League in its last summit in Amman has also called for the lifting on embargo on Iraq. Analysts believe the Iraqi oil has played significant role in stabilizing the oil prices at the current levels. In the absence of these, there may have been more pressure on oil market prices. The US cannot remain oblivious to the role Iraqi production could play in stabilizing the oil market in future as well.

Unglaublich ! Hohe Oelpreise liegen jetzt im amerikanischem Interesse !

Bush jr. und seine OEL - Lobby machens möglich !

Oil prices rally as fears loom large on US gasoline stocks


LONDON
OIL prices firmed up on Tuesday, bolstered by strong gasoline markets amid concerns over tight supplies ahead of the summer driving season in the United States.

London Brent crude by mid-afternoon trade was up 92 cents to $26.2 a barrel. US light rose 90 cents to $28.2.

Dealers said they were anticipating a seventh straight week of declines in US gasoline inventories when the American Petroleum Institute issues US fuel stocks data after the close of business on Tuesday.

They said investment funds which are short oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were buying back contracts, helping push prices higher.

Latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released last Friday, showed speculators with the largest Nymex crude short positions — a bet that prices will fall — in three years.

``Gasoline provided the main support for the market on Monday with traders already positioning themselves for a bullish API report tonight,’’ said Lawrence Eagles of GNI Research.

Eagles said the report would need to show a 3 per cent jump in refinery utlisation from a forecast one percent to allay fears of a gasoline supply crunch.

A survey of analysts forecast a 1.5m barrel draw on gasoline stocks, already at the lowest end-March levels for at least 17 years. Analysts also were expecting a 2.3 million barrel build in crude stocks and a decline of 1.1 million barrels in middle distillates, including heating oil and diesel fuel.

Last week, the API pegged gasoline stocks 10m barrels below levels at the same time last year, when inventories proved insufficient to meet summer consumption and pump prices surged to record highs at more than $2 a gallon.

Gasoline touched $1a gallon on Monday for the first time since October and on Tuesday was up another 2.4 cents to $1.02 a gallon.

The Energy Information Administration — the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy has warned that retail gasoline prices are likely to jump this summer if the US supply system experiences any disruptions or bottlenecks.

Average US retail prices, at $1.5 per gallon, have already topped the expected summer average price of $1.5, the DoE said on Monday.

The rise in New York prices also offered support to European markets, with European gasoline barge prices exceeding $300 a tonne for the first time in six months. Traders shrugged off data showing Europea’s oil inventory cushion is more comfortable than at any time in the past two years.

European crude and petroleum product inventories rose 7.3m barrels in March for a year-on-year surplus of 19.3m, Stichting Euroilstock said.

In the short term, the tighter gasoline market is expected to counter the more bearish impact of a widespread economic slowdown and continued worries that members of the Opec producers’ cartel will not adhere to cuts in production quotas.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut output twice this year by a total 2.5 million bpd, with the most recent cut of one million bpd going into effect on April 1. Industry reports indicate, however, that Opec output exceeds the set limits. (Agencies)


Es geht steil Aufwärts !

[M_B_S]

Ne Bombe : Indien legt strategische Reserven an !

Das wird die Nachfrage noch einmal pushen , da Indien noch mehr Oel kaufen muss als sowieso schon in 2001 !

Ein weiterer Aspekt : Indien weiss es auch schon ! Es wird wieder eng werden mit der max . Förderung vs. max. Nachfrage !
:

Govt mulls creating strategic oil reserves
The Times of India News Service

NEW DELHI: The government is considering building strategic reserves of crude oil to ensure supplies in ``difficult`` times , according petroleum minister Ram Naik.

These reserves would be spread across the country and would be linked to refining infrastructure and take into account regional needs, Naik said inaugurating a seminar on energy security on Tuesday.

The reserves would help guard against disruptions by natural calamities and external threats, the minister added.

India at present stores about a month`s crude supply, including reserves for the defence forces. The US, in comparison, stores supplies for six months.

Naik said international prices and supply have direct impact on the domestic availability. Extreme price and supply shocks can be detrimental and the country needs to be insulated from them.

India meets around 70 per cent of its 75 million tonnes domestic crude oil requirement through imports. The country`s oil import bill for 2000-01 has been pegged at Rs 80,000 crore, Naik said.

Energy consumption in India, he said, was growing at 6-7 per cent against the world average of 1.5-2 per cent, and long-term energy security concerns of the country were being addressed through enhanced exploration and production activities and acquiring equity oil abroad.


CU @ 30 $

[M_B_S]

Oil prices soar on US gasoline crisis fears



REUTERS, London


World oil prices surged yesterday, ending sharply higher as investment funds took fright at the prospect of a summer gasoline shortage in the United States.

London Brent crude last traded $1.23 higher at $26.51 a barrel and US light stood $1.17 stronger at $28.45 at the close.


Oil prices briefly shed some gains in late trade but remained on high ground after United Nations figures showed that Iraq`s oil exports rose 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.29 million bpd in the week to April 6.


Iraq, bound by UN sanctions, also reached its highest four-week oil exports average since early November, with 2.24 million bpd through April 6.


Dealers said they were anticipating a seventh straight week of declines in US gasoline inventories when the American Petroleum Institute (API) issues US fuel stocks data after the close of business on Tuesday.


They said investment funds which were short oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange now were buying back contracts, helping push prices higher.


"US gasoline is getting incredibly tight and the funds are short. They could easily push the market higher again," said a London futures dealer.


Latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released last Friday, showed speculators with their largest NYMEX crude short positions ( a bet that prices will fall ( in three years. "Gasoline provided the main support for the market yesterday with traders already positioning themselves for a bullish API report tonight," said Lawrence Eagles of GNI Research.


Eagles said the report would need to show a three per cent jump in refinery utilisation from a forecast one per cent to allay fears of a gasoline supply crunch.


Analysts also were expecting a 2.3 million barrel build in crude stocks and a decline of 1.1 million barrels in middle distillates, including heating oil and diesel fuel.


Last week, the API pegged gasoline stocks 10 million barrels below levels at the same time last year, when inventories proved insufficient to meet summer consumption and US pump prices surged to record highs at more than $2 a gallon.


US gasoline futures touched $1.00 a gallon on Monday for the first time since October and last traded 3.38 cents stronger at $1.0250 a gallon on Tuesday.


The US Department of Energy has warned that retail gasoline prices are likely to jump this summer if the US supply system experiences any disruptions or bottlenecks.


Average US retail prices, at $1.50 per gallon, have already topped the expected summer average price of $1.49, the DOE said on Monday.


The rise in US prices has forced European gasoline cargo prices above $300 a tonne for the first time in six months. Prices reached $314 a tonne on Tuesday and could soon translate into further price increase at the pump.


High US prices are making it profitable for sales of gasoline into the United States from Europe.


Last year European fuel protests saw farmers and hauliers lead demonstrations aimed at lowering government taxes on diesel and petrol.


Unlike the United States, Europe`s oil inventories look comfortably placed.


European crude and petroleum product inventories rose 7.32 million barrels in March for a year-on-year surplus of 19.32 million, European Union agency Stichting Euroilstock said.


Dealers said that the US gasoline market was countering the more bearish impact of a widespread economic slowdown and continued worries that members of the OPEC producers` cartel will not adhere to cuts in production quotas.


The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut output twice this year by a total 2.5 million bpd, with the most recent cut of one million bpd going into effect on April 1.


Industry reports indicate, however, that OPEC output exceeds the set limits.

[M_B_S]

Hey lockencop what happens here 27 $

something wrong ? are you ill ?

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

Benzinpreise so hoch wie noch nie - Einflüsse aus USA

HAMBURG (dpa-AFX) - Die Benzinpreise in Deutschland sind so hoch wie noch nie. Nach Einschätzung des Hamburger Branchendienstes EIDhaben Einflüsse aus den USA dazu beigetragen, den Großhandelspreisfür Benzin auf mehr als 300 USD je Tonne zu treiben. "Es passiert offenbar das gleiche wie im vergangenen Jahr", sagte EID-Chef Heino Elfert am Donnerstag der dpa in Hamburg. "Der notwendige Aufbau von Benzinbeständen in den USA lässt sich nicht bewerkstelligen; die Bestände sind sogar noch niedriger als im vergangenen Jahr." Daraus resultiere zusätzliche Nachfrage auf den europäischen Märkten. Die hohen Benzinpreise auf dem Spotmarkt zögen den Rohölpreis nach sich. Nach einer Preisrunde am Mittwoch kostet Normalbenzin im bundesdeutschen Durchschnitt 2,09 DM je Liter. Für Superbenzin muss der Autofahrer 2,13 DM je Liter bezahlen und für Super plus 2,21 DM. Dieselkraftstoff kostet 1,67 DM je Liter. Damit haben dieBenzinpreise in Deutschland einen neuen Höchststand erreicht. "Allein im April hat sich der Preis für Normalbenzin in Rotterdam von 276 auf308 USD je Tonne erhöht", sagte ein Sprecher von ExxonMobil in Hamburg. Das entspreche rechnerisch der Preiserhöhung von vier bis fünf Pfennig. Der Preis für ein Barrel (159 Liter) Rohöl der Nordsee-Sorte Brent kletterte auf mehr als 26 USD./DP/gi/sh


Ich sag es ja , aber keiner hört zu

Solarer Wasserstoff jetzt, oder wir werden es alle bereuen !

[M_B_S]

Das Unheil nimmt seinen lauf !
27,20 $

[M_B_S]

Oil & Gas: -Norway retains control

The EU Commission is not planning any directive for the control of Norwegian or British oil production. A new proposal only intends to control parts of EU`s present emergency oil reserves.

-However, this will probably not be a part of the EEA-agreement, says EU spokesman Gilles Gantelet to the Norwegian News Agency, quoted by NRK.

Gantelet strongly rejects reports in the British and Norwegian press that the EU plans to interfere with the individual nations` oil production, and that it would take control over oil fields in case of an energy crisis.

He says that as yet, there are no proposals for a new directive, but adds that there may come proposals for changes in the present regulations sometime this fall.

Through a directive from 1992, the EU nations are already committed to keep emergency stores of oil, heating oil and aircraft fuel enough to last for 90 days of normal consumption.

However, this directive does not include Norway. This is verified both by Gantelet and the Norwegian EU delegation in Brussels.

(NRK)

Hier stinkt was ! Aber gewaltig !

Überall hektisches Treiben, um an Reserven zu kommen !

Ist die Lage in den Staaten so dramatisch ?

Das die Öffentlichkeit nichts davon erfährt ..... würde wohl ne Massenpanik auslösen und Hamsterkäufe an den Tankstellen !

[M_B_S]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[M_B_S]

Crude climbs as gasoline worries counter leaky Opec
London |Reuters | 13-04-01
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

Oil prices resumed their upward march yesterday as worries over U.S. gasoline shortages outweighed a bearish outlook for world oil demand growth and Opec leakage.

London Brent futures ended 41 cents higher at $27.37 a barrel, half a dollar under the two-month peak touched before traders locked in profits ahead of the long holiday weekend. U.S. light crude rose two cents to $28.20.

Dealers said they were buying oil ahead of the Easter holiday for fear of more bullish news on U.S. gasoline supplies ahead of the summer driving season. "Gasoline is in the driver`s seat," said Adam Sieminski, energy analyst at Deutsche Bank.

[M_B_S]

Constitution: Bush recklessly pushing dependency on oil sources
Staff
Friday, April 13, 2001


Like a lot of free-market zealots, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are all for competition --- until they get some.

Both former oil men, the president and vice president this week presented a budget that slashes funding for anything that might, someday, compete with the petrified dinosaur industry. Money for alternative energy and fuel-efficiency programs was cut by half or more.

At the same time, the Interior Department was OK`d to spend 20 percent more to explore for oil, natural gas and coal. Protected public lands are to be opened to those purposes. The Bush budget also hacks funding from a federal partnership with automakers that was developing gas-electric hybrid engines that get triple the current fuel economy.

But the Bushies have a sense of humor, at least. They promise to restore money for alternative fuel research in three years but only with money earned from leasing the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil production.

Bush and Cheney seem to be gearing up to push fuel consumption as though it were crack cocaine. This is terrible policy. The energy crisis in this country, to the degree that one exists, is a crisis of fossil-fuel dependency.

Like any dependency --- from chemical addiction to over-dependence on government largess --- our carbon addiction distorts all other aspects of life to serve its insatiable needs.

Dependence on oil puts our entire system at the mercy of supplies and prices for the black stuff, and those factors are, and always will be, largely beyond our control. No matter how many of our wilderness areas we despoil, our country will always be dependent to a large degree on other countries --- including some that don`t particularly like us --- for most of our oil.

Most of our worst environmental woes can be traced to burning oil and coal, as well. Global warming, urban air pollution and mercury in drinking water all come largely from coal-burning power plants and gas-burning vehicles.

Government policy, then, ought to have the aims of diversifying our sources of energy, promoting efficient and clean technologies and encouraging conservation.

The government shouldn`t be in the business of coercing the shift from oil dependency, but by no means should it take the Bush approach of flogging increased consumption.

It is not imprudent to explore for oil and gas within our borders, but those reserves ought to be seen as an emergency supply to be exploited only in the event of a genuine crisis between now and the day we`ve weaned ourselves from fossil fuels. A genuine crisis would be a prolonged disruption of supplies from abroad, whether from war, natural disaster or other unforeseen circumstance.

A spike in the price of gasoline is not a crisis, but a market signal of the dangers of dependency.

Of course, one could argue that by putting the spurs to fuel consumption and gobbling up finite supplies, Bush`s policies could bring on their own twin crises of premature depletion and environmental degradation. We grown-ups won`t be around then, most likely, but our children and grandchildren will.

What sort of planet will they inherit?

Yes ! Bush muss gestoppt werden !

Vielleicht schon diesen Sommer wenn der Mob auf den Strassen der USA tobt ! Gallon bei 3 $

Die Oel - Männer an der Regierung in einer weltweiten Oelkrise ?

Unglaublich schlechte Aussichten

[M_B_S]

OPEC`s oil production still well above target


The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries is continuing to produce oil far above its target levels, providing at least some relief to major consuming countries that have low inventories, relatively high prices and once again face the prospect of high petrol prices as the peak driving season in the northern hemisphere approaches.

Data released by the International Energy Agency in Paris showed the 10 OPEC members that were committed to sharply reducing their oil output scaled back only slightly in March, or by some 120,000 barrels a day, to 25.85 million barrels a day.

The total was 650,000 barrels a day higher than the target of 25.2 million barrels a day that OPEC set in January.

That was when the group`s oil ministers decided to cut production by 1.5 million barrels a day, effective February 1.

Since then, the ministers have agreed to a further supply reduction of one million barrels a day, effective April 1, lowering their output target to 24.2 million barrels a day.

Their aim is to keep crude oil prices at around $US25 ($49) a barrel as measured by a basket of crude oils.

The price of the North Sea benchmark Brent Blend is usually about $US2 a barrel more than the OPEC basket.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate usually has a larger premium of about $US4 a barrel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange last Thursday crude oil for May delivery settled at $US28.25 a barrel, up 7c.

Many analysts have been expecting the agreements to cut output would fail.

"There`s much less incentive to cut output when prices are at $25 a barrel than when prices are at $10 a barrel," said Mr Julian Lee, an analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies. "This problem is going to get worse for OPEC."

OPEC members` compliance with output deals typically has been best during price crashes. But Mr Lee and others in the oil industry figure major consuming nations should be grateful OPEC`s agreement is leaking oil.

That is because crude oil inventories in major consuming countries are low by historical standards, according to data compiled by the IEA. And low inventories prompt market volatility.

Indeed, petrol markets are widely expected to be tight again this year in the US, the IEA noted. It said low inventories of crude oil hampered attempts by refiners to meet peak seasonal demand for certain oil products.

Still, the IEA`s data provide some hope of relief. Growth in oil demand continues to weaken along with the world economy.

Meanwhile, world output of crude oil rose 890,000 barrels a day to 78.21 million barrels a day.


More than half of that rise came from Iraq, OPEC`s 11th member, which does not take part in the group`s quota system because its exports are regulated by the UN.

That pushed OPEC`s output, including Iraq, up to 28.51 million barrels a day. Most of the remaining oil output increase in March came from the US.

Despite a deal to sharply cut output, March changes were only slight.

OPEC aims to keep crude-oil prices at around $US25 ($49) a barrel.

Output deals stick best during price crashes.

Fazit : Opec Drosselung nicht aktiv !

Preis steigt trotzdem !

[prinzeugen]

hättest mal spiegeltv heute sehen sollen!!

[Lockencop]

Nachdem der Rohölpreis an der mittelfristigen Abwärtstrendlinie im Bereich
von 27$ abgeprallt ist, kann man davon ausgehen, dass die Trendwende vollzogen ist.



Der Chart zeigt die Trendumkehr.

Erstes Kursziel 23$.


Gruß
Lockencop

[M_B_S]

Oil price boosted by Los Angeles refinery fire
Reuters
April 24 2001 at 10:24AM
Singapore - Oil prices were given a boost on Tuesday as a fire at a US refinery deepened fears of a shortage of motor fuel in the peak summer vacation season and sent gasoline surging to new 10-month peaks.

The blaze at Tosco Corp`s 130,000-barrel per day (bpd) plant in the Los Angeles suburb of Carson came hot on the heels of recent explosions at refineries in Britain and the Caribbean.

News of the fire pushed US gasoline futures prices up more than 1.5 cents to $1.085 a gallon and pulled benchmark US light crude 37 cents higher to $27.98 a barrel.

Gasoline prices have been riding at 10-month highs in recent weeks as wafer-thin US stocks have fuelled concerns of a replay of last year`s summer supply crunch there, which led to a record spike at the pump.

US gasoline inventories are running some eight million barrels below last year`s lean levels and analysts doubt refiners will be able to replenish tanks ahead of the summer driving season, which kicks off on the May 28 Memorial Day US holiday weekend.

Tosco`s blaze hit one of four coking units at Carson, which industry sources said would be maximising gasoline output at this time of year.

Tosco spokesman Jeff Callender told Reuters that the coker was shut but the rest of the refinery was in production.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish weekly data for US fuel stockpiles after the close of business on Tuesday and the market will be eagerly waiting to see the state of gasoline inventories.

Analysts predicted the API figures to show a 500,000-barrel rise in gasoline tanks and a two million-barrel increase in crude stocks, according to a Reuters poll.

Crude prices also found support on Tuesday when OPEC Secretary General Ali Rodriguez said the producers` cartel was unlikely to raise production before September.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has twice cut output this year to stave off any decline in prices amid a seasonal second quarter downturn in demand and the global economic slowdown that threatens to eat into oil consumption.

The group will meet in Vienna on June 5-6 to review oil markets and set production policy.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi is due to meet US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham for the first time later this week and will likely discuss oil prices in the wake OPEC`s decision to curb supplies to the market.

The United States, the world`s biggest oil consumer, has made clear it does not want a repeat of last year`s overheated oil prices eroding US economic growth. - Reuters

[Lockencop]

Und der Ölkurs zeigt weiterhin nach unten.



Wie erwartet ist die Trendwende eingetreten. Demnach sehe ich ein Abwärtstpotential
bis ca. 22/23$.

Gruß
Lockencop

[M_B_S]

Oil rallies on OPEC reluctance to raise output


Updated 10:53 AM ET April 26, 2001
LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices rallied further on Thursday, underpinned by signals that the OPEC producers` cartel will maintain curbs to world crude supplies beyond its next meeting in June.
London`s international benchmark Brent rose 73 cents higher to $27.55 a barrel. U.S. light crude was trading 86 cents higher at $28715.

Gasoline and heating oil also chalked up healthy gains after leading

advertisement




figures in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled that a rise in group output was not yet on the agenda for the June 5-6 ministerial meeting.

Rilwanu Lukman, Nigeria`s presidential adviser for energy, said he saw no need for OPEC to "rock the boat" on output policy when the cartel meets.

"I think it is better to see what is happening nearer the time we meet but all things said if prices stay within the band I don`t see the need to rock the boat," he told Reuters at an oil conference in London.

OPEC has targeted a $22-$28 price band for a basket of OPEC crudes that on Wednesday was valued at $24.37 a barrel.

OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said in Paris on Wednesday there was no shortage of crude. "In June the present situation will be maintained," Rodriguez told Reuters.

"Maybe in the third or fourth quarter we could put more oil in the market but it depends on demand," he said.

OPEC has chopped production by 2.5 million barrels per day, almost 10 percent, this year to counter a seasonal demand dip in the second quarter and the impact on oil consumption of a global economic slowdown.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi cautioned that it was premature to contemplate what action, if any, OPEC may take in June. Naimi said that OPEC may need to defend crude prices against sluggish economic activity.

But consumer nations are already worried that reduced OPEC supply will be insufficient to meet rising demand in the second half of the year.

The International Energy Agency urged OPEC on Tuesday to open the taps on crude flows soon to avoid shortfalls in winter fuels.

"September is too late in terms of supplies for the winter. It is during the third quarter of the year that refiners need to buy their crude oil," IEA Executive Director Robert Priddle told Reuters.

Some U.S. motorists are already paying more than $2 a gallon at gasoline pumps and prices could spike beyond last year`s record levels when the summer demand kicks in at the start of the driving season at the end of May.

Wafer-thin gasoline inventories in the United States saw some relief this week as U.S. refiners turned up production rates at plants.

The American Petroleum Institute recorded a 2.6 million barrel rise in national gasoline stockpiles, cutting the year-on-year deficit almost in half to 4.8 million barrels from eight million barrels the previous week.

[M_B_S]

OH OH 28,5 $

BENZIN IN DEN USA WIRD KNAPP !

[Lockencop]

@M_B_S

Was ist mit 28,50$

Der Ölpreis liegt noch nicht mal bei 27$!!!

[M_B_S]

@lockencop

Wo sind 23 $

Welche Sorte ? US light !

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Oil prices pushed higher on Friday, extending a rally powered by record-high gasoline prices and signals that OPEC has no plans to relax supply curbs anytime soon.
North Sea bellwether Brent crude was 33 cents up at $27.93 a barrel. U.S. light crude stood 12 cents higher at $28.56.

U.S. gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a peak at $1.1135 a gallon

advertisement




in off-hours electronic dealings, the highest level recorded since the contract was launched in December 1984.

The May gasoline contract was trading 0.58 cents stronger on Friday at $1.1100 a gallon.

Prices for motor fuel continue to find upward momentum from fears that lowly stocks in the United States, the world`s biggest consumer, will be insufficient to meet demand when American motorists go on vacation in the summer.

Thursday`s rally on oil markets was also driven by signals from the OPEC producers` cartel that it is unlikely to raise crude output when it meets to discuss production policy in early June.

Nigeria`s presidential adviser or energy said Thursday that he saw no need for OPEC to "rock the boat" on output policy when ministers meet in early June.

OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said earlier this week that OPEC`s current policy would be maintained in June, but the group might open up the taps on supplies in the third or fourth quarter.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the West`s energy watchdog, has urged OPEC to lift output to ensure ample crude supplies for the second half of the year, when demand picks up.

Some analysts fear that a looming summer gasoline shortage could lead to a supply shortfall in winter heating fuels.

Motorists in parts of the United States are already paying more than $2 a gallon at the pump and prices could spike beyond last year`s record levels of $2.75 in some cities when summer demand kicks in.

Wafer-thin U.S. gasoline inventories were given some reprieve this week when industry data showed tanks were beginning to replenish after hitting 30-year lows on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

A flow of imports from Europe and a ratching up of production rates at U.S. refineries helped cut a year-on-year stock deficit almost in half to 4.8 million barrels from eight million, according to the American Petroleum Institute.

High U.S. prices have attracted a flotilla of gasoline cargoes from across the Atlantic, where northwest European gasoline barges stand at about $332 a tonne, well below last summer`s $400 a tonne peak


Driving season ahead

[M_B_S]

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices trekked higher again on Friday after the U.S. government spooked the market on Thursday by warning of tight gasoline supplies this summer.
London benchmark Brent rose 19 cents to $28.26 and U.S. light crude added 17 cents to $28.62, building on Thursday`s sharp gains.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham in testimony to U.S. lawmakers on Thursday warned of possible price spikes at the pump this summer with U.S. refiners now running flat out to meet demand.

The comments came just as prices were beginning to cool from recent highs after weekly U.S. inventory data showing that stocks of crude and products were building in the world`s biggest import market.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reported this week a 5.1 million-barrel jump in U.S. gasoline storage in the week to April 27 and said crude stocks rose 6.3 million barrels.

Fresh news of refinery outages also has helped reinvigorate prices.

The 110,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) gasoline making unit of Petroleos de Venezuela`s (PDVSA) Cardon refinery remained out of action after failing to restart on Wednesday.

A PDVSA refinery official said on Thursday the down time was uncertain although sources close to the company earlier said the plant could remain out for two to three weeks.

U.S. independent Orion Refining said a restart at the gasoline making unit at its Louisiana refinery had been delayed for another week.

In addition, Marathon Ashland Petroleum has shut its St.Paul, Minnesota refinery due to a power failure. The unit was expected to be back in operation in two to three days.

Bullish comments from an OPEC minister also helped aid prices.

Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Alvaro Silva said on Thursday he hoped to see oil prices rise later in the year -- even though prices already are above OPEC`s median target.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries next meets on June 5 to review its output, after cutting production twice so far this year.

OPEC wants to keep prices for a basket of cartel crudes in the range $22-$28 a barrel. The basket was valued at $25.84 on Thursday.



Und was jetzt ? - Solarer Wasserstoff ! Herr Schröder

[M_B_S]

Oil gains on US gasoline warning, refinery woes
Reuters
May 04 2001 at 10:36AM
Singapore - Oil prices trekked steadily higher on Friday to near lofty $29 levels as a US government warning of tight gasoline supplies this summer spooked the market.

The market continued its climb from Thursday after US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham warned that gasoline price spikes were likely with US refiners now running flat out to meet consumer demand.

By 0600 GMT, benchmark US New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures for June delivery last stood at $28.69 a barrel, adding another 24 cents to its 65-cent rally on Thursday in New York.

The June contract settled at $28.45 on Thursday and NYMEX gasoline futures were equally buoyant.

The June gasoline contract last stood 0.89 cents a gallon higher at $1.080, some eight cents below an all-time high of $1.16 struck on Monday.

Crude`s gains reversed part of Wednesday`s sharp $1.14 a barrel fall, when the latest US stocks data pressured prices.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) reported a 5.1 million-barrel jump in US gasoline tanks in the week to April 27.

It said crude stocks were also up a sharp 6.3 million barrels, although a smaller rise than the American Petroleum Institute (API) report of 8.3 million.

The market grew sensitive again to lean gasoline supplies, after the US Energy Secretary`s comments, as Americans, the world`s largest gasoline consumers, were due to hit the road for the summer holidays.

"I think we`re going to see this pattern of price spiking continuing in the months ahead," Abraham told lawmakers in response to a question about the gasoline supply outlook for the summer.

"We don`t have a lot of excess (refining) capacity right now," he added.

Dealers turned to news of refinery woes, and there was plenty here to feed the market`s bulls.

[M_B_S]

CNN : Höchster Benzinpreis in den USA seit dem 1 Golfkrieg !

Da kann ja heiter werden diesen Sommer

Der Auto-Mob vorm Kanzleramt / White house

Ps vielleicht werden wir den Oel-Mann Bush schneller los als
gedacht

[M_B_S]

REUTERS, London


World oil prices notched up gains on the back of roaring gasoline futures yesterday as OPEC`s president said the cartel would probably leave production steady in June but could boost output later this year.

London Brent futures ended 23 cents higher at $28.13 a barrel while US light crude gained 76 cents to $28.15.


OPEC President Chakib Khelil joined other cartel ministers and said the producers group would keep supplies unchanged when it decides output policy in Vienna in June, but reiterated that a production increase could be in the cards for later.


Non-OPEC Mexico`s energy minister, Ernesto Martens, later said he saw no current need for output to rise as world markets have sufficient supplies, reiterating similar sentiments heard earlier from OPEC members Iran and Qatar.


After several days rest, gasoline resumed its place as the market`s driving force amid record prices fuelled by worries over inadequate supplies before the pea-demand summer driving season in the United States, the world`s biggest oil consumer.


Unleaded gasoline futures got another fillip on Wednesday from news of a hitch at Sonoco Inc.`s 140,000 barrel per day Point Breeze refinery near Philadelphia.


Although the company said it would continue to operate the plant at full capacity while repairs went on, to last an unspecified length of time, the short-term concerns were enough to drive June futures up 3.26 cents to $1.077 a gallon.


US statistical data provided additional bullish incentive as it showed a smaller than expected increase in gasoline tanks.


The government statistics agency Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing a one million barrel build in gasoline supplies in the week to May 4, well below expectations of a 2.5 million barrel rise.


That confirmed the American Petroleum Institute`s (API) Tuesday report that showed a 1.12 million barrel increase.


The API said strong demand for gasoline of more than nine million bpd limited the gasoline build, although increasing output at US refineries and healthy imports cut the year-on-year stock deficit to just over 840,000 barrels.


But according to the EIA, the deficit remained a hefty 7.8 million barrels, a figure likely to keep concerns about a potential summer shortfall on the front burner.


Crude supplies were little changed in both reports, the EIA saying stocks were up 600,000 barrels at 318.8 million barrels while the API said tanks were down 270,000 barrels ( both confounding predictions of a 2.75 million barrel boost.

Tja, Lockencop das wars dann wohl mit deinen 23 $

Für immer !

Übrigens haben wir durch das teure Oel die höchste Inflationsrate seit 7 ! Jahren in Deutschland

40 $ im Oktober 2001 nicht unrealistisch !

[M_B_S]

30 $

Tja Börsenanalyst 40 $ Wetten werden jetzt gehandelt !

Bush machts möglich


Wahnsinn !

[M_B_S]

Economies of Mideast oil states at risk


WASHINGTON, May 18 (UPI) -- As the Bush administration announced its
energy proposals, three new reports from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies raised serious questions about the economic future of
Middle Eastern states, and the ability of oil economies to provide the
energy required to fuel an increasingly global economy.

The three closely related reports -- "Oil Crash," "Oil Boom," and
"Demographics and Economics in the Gulf" -- explore how demographics and
economics intersect in the Persian Gulf, and sketch a picture of how
crumbling Middle East economies may limit the production of oil needed to
fuel the global economy

Written by Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in
Strategy at CSIS, all three reports say that massive population increases
are outpacing economic development in this region, which has failed to
compete with other regions of the developing world.

The reports note that the heavily desertified region had far fewer than
100 million people in 1950 and less than 200 million in 1980, but now has
more than 300 million. Even if the current population growth rate falls
precipitously, the reports say, more than 600 million will live in the
Middle East by 2050.

According to the reports, the region has lagged badly behind other
developing regions, with the exception sub-Saharan Africa, in virtually
every measure of economic development. Its oil wealth is also increasingly
limited, the reports say.

According to Cordesman, today`s high energy prices disguise the reality
that OPEC`s oil export earnings were $573 billion in 1980, but only $226.6
billion in 2000, a year of extremely high prices by current standards.

"If we want the oil we need for our increasingly global economy, we need
to urgently rethink our policy toward the Middle East," said Cordesman. "We
need to encourage new energy partnerships, encourage much higher levels of
foreign investment in both energy production and development, and totally
rethink our sanctions on production in key exporting countries like Iran,
Iraq and Libya."

Cordesman said that the Department of Energy has just issued estimates
that indicate the Middle East must increase its oil production capacity from
around 39 million barrels a day to more than 70 million barrels in 2020, or
from 43 percent to 51 percent of world capacity.

"The (DoE) estimates that actual exports must rise from around 19 million
barrels a day to 39 million barrels, or from 35 percent of world exports to
45 percent," said Cordesman.

"It is far from clear that the Middle East can cope with these stresses,
particularly given existing internal security problems and the threat Iraq
and the second Intifada pose to regional stability. Combined with population
growth, current trends may turn the region`s oil wealth into oil poverty,"
he warned.

The reports are available at the CSIS website at
<<>>


--
Copyright 2001 by United Press International.
All rights reserved.

Ja, da kommt einiges auf die Weltwirtschaft zu !

Ich sage solarer Wasserstoff / Biofuel jetzt oder wir
werden es bitterst bereuen !

Herr Schröder !

[M_B_S]

Ein historisches Datum : 21.05.2001

Das Barrel Notierte erstmals im MAI über 30 $ !

Wieviel es im September kostet ? 40 50 60 $ ?

Ich sage solarer Wasserstoff/ Biofuel jetzt !

Unsere Politiker schlafen !

Wollen wir uns wirklich auf IRAK IRAN Lybien verlassen jetzt wo der Nahe Osten in Flammen steht ?

Ich sage NEIN ! zumal die USA weiter auf OEL setzen und damit enormen Preisdruck erzeugen !

50 % Verbrauchssteigerung in den USA vorhergesagt !

Thats the "American Way of Life"

Die Oeltanker werden nach Amerika fahren ! Nicht nach Europa - bei der US Flotte !

Was interessiert Amerika Europa wenn es kein OEL hat !

America first .......thats the Bush Administration !

Amen

[M_B_S]

Khatami Urges Gas-Producers to Stabilize World Energy Market
( May 22, 2001 )


Tehran - Iran`s President Mohammad Khatami on Saturday night called on major gas producing countries for mutual cooperation to stabilize the world energy market and guarantee the interests of producers and consumers.

Addressing the representatives of eight major gas producers gathering in Tehran to attend the two-day gas exporting countries` forum, Khatami said the forum is a new initiative aimed at bolstering cooperation among the gas-exporting countries.

"The countries which hold sizable natural gas reserves should have appropriate planning and cooperation for a better utilization of this vital material," Khatami said.

"Oil and gas will for long be the most important energy resources in the world, but, we should seek non-fossil energy resources to have a better and more efficient utilization of these two ," he added.

Khatami noted that gas can also play a significant role in the environmental protection.

Representatives of 11 gas-producing countries, including some OPEC members, appealed in Tehran Saturday for "dialogue and cooperation" to promote the gas industry and investments in this sector.

Joining host country Iran at the two-day meeting -- the first of its kind -- are Russia, the world`s largest producer of natural gas, Qatar, Indonesia, Algeria, Brunei, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway, Oman and Turkmenistan.

"Our goal is not at all to create a new organization similar to that of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), but to have a dialogue together on the future -- that is to say natural gas," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said in his opening statement at the forum.

The meeting in Iran, which holds the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, was called to discuss ways of coordinating gas export policies.

Natural gas consumption has risen sharply over the past two years, in conjunction with a steep rise in crude oil prices.

In the meantime, a Russian official addressed the meeting saying that with the accelerating pace of globalization and the growth of worldwide markets and energy transportation, issues concerning energy have moved beyond national and regional boundaries.

Head of the Russian Federation`s Delegation G. Ustjuzhanian said, "Participation in this forum is in complete harmony with the Russian government`s objectives."

From the Russian perspective, he said, all issues ranging from gas exploration, extraction, refinement, transportation and consumption that are to be discussed in the form "are very vast and extensive."

Ustjuzhanian further remarked that multilateral talks among members in this forum provide an optimal setting between producers and consumers and will pave the way for mutual understanding and thus further consolidation of serious cooperation in both multilateral and bilateral scale.

"Russia has acquired extensive experience regarding exploration and exploitation of its rich gas, long pipe production and huge gas transportation and consumption networks in 28 European countries," he told the forum.

Another speaker of the forum was Qatari Energy and Industry Minister Abdulla bin Hamad al-Attiyah who said the gathering will serve to increase transparency and cooperation toward serving the interests of gas consumers and world environment.


Ah ja, sehr vielsagend :


Umweltschutz / Neue Energien / Erdgasproduktion soll gesteigert werden etc. das sagt kein geringerer als :

Iran`s President Mohammad Khatami !

Das Oel wird definitiv knapp ! So sieht es aus !

[Good-Looking-Bills]

...in Gold we trust.
cu

[Mr.Bateman]

Sicherlich brauchen wir aus ökologischen Gründen Alternativen zum Erdöl.

Auber das Erdöl knapp wird halte ich für ein wenig übertrieben. Alleine die Kanadisches Reserven an Ölsand decken unseren Bedarf für die nächsten 100 Jahre.

Auch wenn i.M. nur 12% wirtschaftlich abbaubar sind. Das wird sich aber durch technischen Fortschritt und steigenden Ölpreis ändern.





Der Geruch des Geldes



Im Norden der kanadischen Provinz Alberta werden der Welt größte Lagerstätten von Ölsanden erschlossen. Die Reserven sind größer als die Saudi-Arabiens. Schon ist Kanada zum größten Erdöllieferanten der USA geworden.

Der Kleinbus mutet an wie ein Spielzeugauto, als er neben dem Giganten hält. Allein die monströsen Reifen überragen ihn um fast das Doppelte: knapp vier Meter hoch, sechs Tonnen schwer - die größten Pneus der Welt.

"Nun wollen wir uns mal den Rest ansehen", kündigt Doran Jones an, Fuhrparkleiter des kanadischen Ölkonzerns Syncrude. Die Besucher fühlen sich wie Liliputaner beim Anblick Gullivers, als sie auf die von Reifenspuren zerfurchte Abbauterrasse hinausklettern. Vor ihnen steht ein Muldenkipper von der Größe eines Doppelhauses.

"Das ist einer unserer 20 Frankenstein-Trucks, gebaut von Caterpillar, Typ Cat 797." 60 weitere dieser größten Trucks der Welt seien bestellt, sagt Jones und nennt dann zusätzliche Eckdaten. Leergewicht: 231 Tonnen, so viel wie ein voll bepackter Airbus 330, Leistung: 3400 PS, Zuladefähigkeit: knapp 400 Tonnen. Jeder der 7 Meter hohen, 9 Meter breiten und 14,5 Meter langen Schwerlaster kostet 3 Millionen Dollar; allein die sechs Reifen, die nach einem Jahr oder 100 000 gefahrenen Kilometern am Ende sind, schlagen mit 170 000 Dollar zu Buche.

"Es sind die Trucks", gesteht Syncrude-Präsident James Carter später stolz, "die hier das Herz eines Bergbauingenieurs schneller schlagen lassen." Denn vor allem mit Hilfe der großen Cats 797 und ihrer Vorgänger, von denen auch der kleinste noch 240 Tonnen fassen kann, ist im Norden der kanadischen Provinz Alberta der Abbau der weltgrößten Einzellagerstätte von Erdölsanden zu wirtschaftlichen Kosten möglich geworden.

Vor 25 Jahren noch galt die Ölgewinnung im Tagebau als exotisches Unterfangen. Extraktionskosten von über 30 Dollar pro Barrel schreckten jeden Großinvestor ab. Doch mit dem Ölschock 1979, als die Opec die Rohölpreise um 155 Prozent hinaufsetzte, wurde das Alberta-Öl konkurrenzfähig. Mit Hilfe neuer Abbautechniken und der Entwicklung immer größerer Trucks konnten die Produktionskosten beständig verringert werden. Mittlerweile wird beim Ölsand-Produzenten Suncor ein Barrel-Preis von nur noch 5,50 Dollar angestrebt.

Rund um Fort McMurray, 400 Kilometer nördlich der Provinzhauptstadt Edmonton, lagern auf einer Gesamtfläche von der Größe der Niederlande 400 Milliarden Kubikmeter Erdöl, allerdings fest gebunden als Bitumen in einer Mischung aus Sand und Wasser. Allein die kanadische Reserve wird - zum Entzücken der Automobilindustrie - ausreichen, um den derzeitigen weltweiten Erdölbedarf für weitere 100 Jahre zu sichern.

Zwar gelten nur zwölf Prozent des Gesamtvolumens nach dem derzeitigen Stand der Technik als wirtschaftlich abbaubar. Doch schon diese Menge von 300 Milliarden Barrel übersteigt die gesicherten Ölreserven Saudi-Arabiens um rund 15 Prozent - genug, um einen "oil rush" auszulösen, wie ihn Nordamerika seit den Goldgräberzeiten im vorletzten Jahrhundert nicht mehr erlebt hat; mit dem Unterschied allerdings, dass diesmal nicht viele Glücksritter anrücken, um mit den letzten Ersparnissen ihre Claims abzustecken, sondern die Giganten der Ölbranche.

Insgesamt 22 Milliarden Dollar wollen Ölkonzerne wie Exxon, Shell, Chevron und Texaco zumeist im Verbund mit kanadischen Tochterfirmen bis zum Ende dieses Jahrzehnts in den Aufbau von insgesamt 58 neuen Anlagen investieren, um die Ölsande in Alberta abzubauen.

Die Kalkulation der Konzerne ist frei von Risiko. Zwar liegen die Produktionskosten je Barrel Alberta-Öl derzeit noch fast doppelt so hoch wie in Kuweit oder Saudi-Arabien. Doch bei einem Weltmarktpreis zwischen 25 und 30 Dollar je Barrel "verfügen wir derzeit über die am wenigsten anfällige Gelddruckmaschine der Welt", heißt es bei Syncrude.

In der kanadischen Provinz Alberta, mehr als doppelt so groß wie Deutschland, aber nur mit knapp drei Millionen Einwohnern besiedelt, ist der Ölsand-Abbau inzwischen weniger kostspielig als die Erschließung neuer Ölquellen in Nordamerika oder am Rande des Kontinentalsockels im Golf von Mexiko.

Mit dem merkwürdigen Sediment, das an heißen Sommertagen zähflüssig aus den Uferwänden des Athabasca-Flusses tropft, war 1719 der Pelzhändler Henry Kelsey zum ersten Mal in Kontakt gekommen. Ein Indianer vom Stamm der Cree mit dem Namen Wa-pa-su ("Der Schwan") war in Kelseys Blockhaus an der Hudson Bay erschienen und hatte einen Klumpen Bitumenerde zum Tausch angeboten. Die Indianer nutzten die schwarzklebrige Masse, vermengt mit Fichtenharz, zum Abdichten ihrer Kanus.

Erst zwei Jahrhunderte später, die Besiedlung Albertas ging langsam, aber stetig voran, gab es bei den Weißen Bedarf an den nur wenige Meter unter der Oberfläche lagernden Sanden. Straßenbauer und Dachdecker zeigten Interesse. Doch die schmierige Mixtur aufzubrechen - das Bitumen vom Sandkorn und einem dazwischen befindlichen Wasserfilm zu trennen - erwies sich als schwierig.

Die Lösung fand 1920 der kanadische Chemiker Karl Clark. Er füllte daheim einige Hände voll Ölsand in die Trommel seiner Waschmaschine, fügte Ätznatron hinzu und setzte dann das Ganze mit Warmwasser in Marsch.

Als Clark, ein begabter Heimwerker und nebenbei auch noch Klarinettist im Orchester der Oper von Edmonton, die Maschine anhielt, war die Trennung vollbracht: Auf dem Boden der Trommel hatte sich der helle Sand gesammelt, darüber lag eine Wasserschicht, ganz oben aber schwamm Bitumenschaum - wie die Blume auf einem gut gezapften Pils. Nach dem gleichen Prinzip wird bis heute von dem kanadischen Ölsand das begehrte Rohöl abgesondert.

Gigantische elektrisch und hydraulisch betriebene Bagger, die mit jedem Happen ihrer Schaufel 100 Tonnen Sediment fassen, kratzen zunächst eine durchschnittlich 30 Meter starke glitschige Deckschicht ("overburden") aus Mergel, Sandstein und Schieferton von der Oberfläche. Danach geht es an den Abbau der Ölsand-Schichten, die im Sommer die Konsistenz von Sirup haben, im kanadischen Winter (bei Temperaturen von bis zu minus 50 Grad) jedoch hart wie Beton werden.

Die Schichten sind bis zu 80 Meter mächtig; die daraus herausgebrochenen Brocken werden zerkleinert und gelangen dann über Schüttelsiebe, kilometerlange Förderbänder und Pipelines zur Trennanlage (siehe Grafik). Der Bitumengehalt der schwarzen Sande beträgt bis zu 18 Prozent. Aus zwei Tonnen Sand wird durchschnittlich ein Barrel Öl (159 Liter) gewonnen. Insgesamt 360 000 Barrel Öl pro Tag schicken die beiden Konzerne Suncor und Syncrude durch die Pipelines Richtung USA. Letztes Jahr bezogen die Vereinigten Staaten erstmals mehr Erdöl aus Kanada als von ihrem früheren Hauptlieferanten Saudi-Arabien.


Die leer geräumten Tagebaue werden mit dem vom Bitumen befreiten Sand sowie der zwischengelagerten Deckschicht wieder aufgefüllt und anschließend mit heimischen Zitterpappeln, Rottannen und Gräsern bepflanzt. Die flüssigen, teils giftigen Rückstände müssen in Absetzbecken ruhen; rund zehn Jahre dauert es, bis die gefährlichen Schwebpartikel abgesunken sind. Mannshohe Metallfiguren und automatische Schreckschussanlagen sollen die Vögel vertreiben, die auf den Giftseen landen wollen.

Auch die Umweltbelastung im Gefolge des Ölsand-Abbaus wird streng kontrolliert. Der Umweltwissenschaftler Sanjay Prasad, 27, Sohn indischer Eltern, geboren auf dem Fidschi-Atoll in der Südsee, hat im Auftrag der lokalen Umweltorganisation Wood Buffalo Environmental Association (WBEA) ein Netz von 13 Messstationen aufgebaut.

Die klimatisierten Container stehen an strategisch wichtigen Punkten auf dem Gelände der Tagebaue oder in Downtown Fort McMurray. Aber auch in den benachbarten Reservaten der Indianer kontrollieren WBEA-Messgeräte die Belastung der Luft mit Schwefeldioxid, Kohlenwasserstoffen und Stickoxiden, Kohlendioxid und Schwermetallpartikeln. "Nirgendwo auf der Welt", so jedenfalls beteuert Messexperte Prasad, "gibt es ein System auch nur annähernd vergleichbarer Qualität."

"Wir wollen keine verbrannte Erde hinterlassen", versichert auch Mike Ashar, Vizepräsident des kanadischen Energiekonzerns Suncor, der 1967 als erstes Unternehmen mit dem kommerziellen Abbau der Ölsande begonnen hatte. Multi Syncrude begann, gleich gegenüber jenseits des im letzten Jahr vierspurig ausgebauten Highways 63, elf Jahre später.

Insgesamt beschäftigen die beiden Firmen knapp 6000 Festangestellte, dazu weitere 4000 Zeitarbeiter für die vor zwei Jahren begonnene Erschließung neuer Vorkommen und die Vergrößerung bestehender Anlagen. Für seine in Zwölf-Stunden-Schichten arbeitende Belegschaft erweiterte Suncor im letzten Herbst das firmeneigene Camp (2155 Betten) um ein dreistöckiges Container-Hotel mit 1504 Zimmern (Baukosten: 66 Millionen Dollar), dessen beige-grüner Außenanstrich an die Farben der Psychodroge Prozac erinnert.

Wenn zum bereits angelaufenen Bau der neuen Shell-Anlage weitere 9000 Arbeiter benötigt werden, ist mit sozialen Spannungen zu rechnen - in und um Fort McMurray wird es dann noch enger und teurer werden, als es ohnehin schon ist. Nur im Zentrum der Metropolen Toronto und Vancouver sind die Lebenshaltungskosten höher als in Fort McMurray.

In der abgelegenen kanadischen Boomtown, die in den sechziger Jahren, bevor Suncors Baukolonnen anrückten, noch als 1000-Seelen-Flecken namens Waterways auf der Landkarte verzeichnet war und deren Hauptstraße, die Franklin Avenue, erst 1971 eine feste Straßendecke erhielt, leben inzwischen 46 000 Menschen. Eine Zwei-Zimmer-Wohnung kostet durchschnittlich 1000 Dollar Monatsmiete, ein schlichtes Einfamilienhaus ist nicht unter 200 000 Dollar zu kaufen, doppelt so teuer wie in der Provinzhauptstadt Edmonton.

Zwar behaupten Suncor und Syncrude, dass alle Einwohner Fort MacMurrays vom Ölsand-Boom profitieren werden. Mit erklecklicher Finanzhilfe der Unternehmen wurde die Infrastruktur verbessert. Zu den Errungenschaften zählen ein College, ein großes Krankenhaus, ein Schwimmbad und ein riesiges Eisstadion mit sechs Curling-Linien und zwei Eishockeyfeldern.

Doch im vergangenen Jahr musste das Schwimmbad für Wochen geschlossen werden, weil sich kein Bademeister fand. Ähnlich ergeht es Vaughn Jessome, dem Eigner des "Garden Café" an der Main Street, der immer wieder sein auf 24-Stunden-Betrieb eingestelltes Restaurant dichtmachen muss, weil ihm Köche und Bedienung fehlen. Im Northern Light Hospital ließ sich Anfang des Jahres die Personalknappheit nur durch eine pauschale Erhöhung aller Monatsgehälter um 200 Dollar lindern.

Kein Dienstleister in der Boomtown am Athabasca kann auch nur annähernd Gehälter von der Höhe zahlen wie die 30 Kilometer nördlich von Fort McMurray schürfenden Ölkonzerne.

"Nirgendwo kann ich so viel Geld verdienen wie hier", sagt Coral Campbell, 45, als sie die Leiter des Frankenstein-Trucks Nummer 104 heruntersteigt. Sie ist seit 18 Monaten bei Syncrude Truck-Fahrerin und hat gerade ihre Anlernschicht auf dem Cat 797 absolviert. Eingewiesen wurde sie von Sheena Bailey, 25, die vor einem Jahr aus der von hohen Arbeitslosenquoten gebeutelten kanadischen Ostprovinz Neufundland nach Alberta kam. Die beiden bringen es auf Jahresgehälter von rund 100 000 Dollar, "wenn wir fleißig sind und Überstunden machen", sagt Campbell, deren Brillantohrstecker im Licht der tief stehenden Sonne blitzen.

Dass inzwischen bei Syncrude wie auch bei Suncor jeder vierte Truck von einer Frau gefahren wird, sei "nicht nur ein Beweis der Gleichberechtigung, sondern auch ein Zeichen der Personalknappheit", erklärt Cambells Kollege Jim Park, 49. Er selbst werde in drei Jahren vorzeitig in Pension gehen, aber auch seinem 22-jährigen Sohn, ja selbst seinem 3-jährigen Enkel sei "auf Jahrzehnte hinaus ein gut bezahlter Job bei Suncor sicher".

Mit leichter Hand steuert Park im Rückwärtsgang den voll beladenen Cat 797 gegen die ein Meter hohe Betonschwelle, die den Super-Truck daran hindern soll, hinterrücks in die Auffanggrube des "Crushers" auf der "Steepbank Mine" abzustürzen. Park lässt die Seitenfenster runtersurren, im meterhohen Seitenspiegel hat er eine Warnampel im Visier; als sie auf Grün springt, fordert er seinen Beifahrer auf, "die Nase in den Wind zu halten".

Dann wird es hell im 797-Cockpit, die Kipplade fährt hoch und lässt das Nachmittagslicht durch das Rückfenster hereinfluten. 400 Tonnen Ölsand rutschen hinab. "Riechst du es?", will Park wissen und antwortet selbst: "So riecht Geld. Wir haben gerade 6000 Dollar abgeladen."

[M_B_S]

Habe den Spiegel-Artikel auch gelesen

Entscheidend ist der Zeitpunkt wann er lanciert wurde !

Übrigens wird hier wieder dramatisch übertrieben !

Ausser acht gelassen :

Klimaschutz ? CO2 ?

Max Produktionspeak ? = Max Nachfrage beliefern ?

Abhängigkeit von Canada/USA ?



Europa sollte auf Reg Wasserstoff bauen !

Weg vom Oel/ fossielen Energien oder ......

Steinzeit

Lit.: Werner Sombart : Das Ende des Kapitalismus

Arbeitsthese : Ressource Wald durch Oel ersetzen !

CU

[M_B_S]

Genau wie vorher gesagt ! :

UK Oil-Production /WRD/
UK Oil Production Expected To Fall This Year
London, May 24, IRNA -- Oil production from the British sector of the
North Sea is again expected to fall overall this year despite showing
signs of a recovery in March, according to the latest report from
Royal Bank of Scotland.
"We expect oil output to continue to increase this year, although
it now seems unlikely that oil output for 2001 will be as high as it
was in 2000," the bank`s oil and gas economist Tony Wood said
Thursday.
The bank reported that Britain`s oil production rose 2.3 million
barrels per day in March, 4.3 per cent up from February, but still
11.7 per cent lower than the corresponding month last year.
In February, the Royal Bank of Scotland predicted that UK oil
output would increase this year, after dropping in 2000 to its lowest
level since 1993.
Despite the modest increase in March, oil revenue for the month
declined by 6.6 per cent to Pnds 39 million (Dlrs 56 m) per day due
to a fall in the average price of crude. Average rate of Brent crude
has since risen back over 28 dollar per barrel.
In its monthly report, the Royal Bank of Scotland said that OPEC`s
meeting next month would be "crucial" for the future trend of prices
in the coming months.
Despite the shortage of refinery capacity in the US, the impact of
the economic slowdown in America appeared to be feeding through,
resulting in increasing stocks, and "should help ease the pressure
on prices," the report said.
HC/JH
End
::irna 14:14



Die europäische Ölförderung wird im wesentlichen von Norwegen und England bestritten.Norwegen wird im Jahr 2000 oder 2001 das Produktionsmaximum überschreiten. Großbritannien hat es vermutlich Ende 1999 überschritten. Im ersten Halbjahr 2000 wurden dort trotz des hohen Ölpreises 5 Prozent weniger Erdöl gefördert als im Vergleichszeitraum 1999.

Möglicherweise kann der beschleunigte Anschluß neuer Felder die Produktion noch einmal kurzfristig erhöhen, aber dann geht die Produktion unweigerlich zurück. Vermutlich aber hat Europa das Produktionsmaximum bereits hinter sich.

Daten: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, OECD Energy Statistics and Balances

!

[M_B_S]

Opec eases fear over price surge

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LONDON Members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have no interest in the basket price of their crude oil rising above $28 a barrel, the group`s secretary-general Alí Rodríguez Araque says.

In a bid to damp down fear of a price surge in the fourth quarter, Rodríguez said yesterday that Opec would "act as necessary to maintain stability". He said this would keep prices within the group`s target range of between 22 and $28 a barrel.

But he said he believed there was consensus among members to maintain the current production ceiling of 24,2-million barrels a day when they meet in Vienna early next month.

The ceiling excluded Iraqi exports, which are controlled by United Nations (UN) sanctions.

Some analysts argue that Opec needs to raise output from July to pre-empt a tightening of supplies and prevent prices spiralling near the end of the year.

But Rodríguez said the organisation had the ability to bring spare capacity on stream when needed to maintain market stability. The 11-country Opec has sustainable spare capacity of about 4-million barrels a day.

The oil cartel could raise output either after its meeting in June or through its price-control mechanism, which dictates a production rise of 500000 barrels a day if prices exceed $28 a barrel for 20 consecutive trading days.

The average price of the Opec basket last week was $26,05.

Jetzt wird es bitter ! driving season hat begonnen !

Die Gier der Scheichs kennt keine Grenzen !

Ich sage solarer Wasserstoff jetzt !

[M_B_S]

BAGHDAD, May 27 (Reuters) - A senior Iraqi energy official was quoted on Sunday as saying any suspension of Iraqi crude exports would cause a crisis in the world`s oil market.

Oil Ministry senior undersecretary Taha Humud Musa, quoted by Ittehad newspaper, said it was unlikely that Saudi Arabia would be able fill the void if Baghdad halted its exports.

"We doubt that Saudi Arabia would compensate for Iraqi oil in the case exports were halted. The Saudis might have a production surplus but this is not enough," Musa said.

"We are sure that if Iraqi crude is absent (from the market), there will be a crisis and then we`ll see," he said.

Baghdad has threatened to halt oil exports if the U.N. Security Council adopts the "smart sanctions" proposal of Britain and the United States.

Iraq currently exports about 2.1 million barrels per day.

Washington`s aim is to get the resolution adopted before the current six-month phase for the United Nations oil-for-food programme expires on June 3.

But with two permanent members of the Security Council -- Russia and China -- balking, an extension of the current phase looks likely.

Iraq wants a simple renewal of the current programme. The British-U.S. plan seeks to ease restrictions on civilian goods going to Iraq but also to crackdown on oil smuggling.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has said that it and other OPEC members would step in and fill any serious supply gaps created by a break in Iraqi exports.

An Iraqi oil official said on Sunday Iraqi Oil Minister Amir Muhammed Rasheed and top oil officials were due to attend OPEC`s June 5-6 output strategy meeting in Vienna.

Rasheed`s entourage is to include Musa, Saddam Hassan, executive director of oil marketer SOMO, Abd al-Ilah al-Tikriti, director general of economics and finance, and Mus`ib al- Dujaili, OPEC governor and adviser to the oil minister.

The Iraqi oil minister has previously given OPEC meetings a miss when domestic affairs have taken precedence.


Jetzt geht es den Amis an den Kragen !

Oelembargo IRAK IRAN !

Das bricht den Amis das Genick ! = 100 $ Barrel in einer US
Energiekrise mit klammen Vorräten !

Eine Drohung unglaublichen Ausmaßes !

Auf der Konferenz der Arabischen Liga hat Iran erstmals die Option eines Oelembargos angeregt , um die Palestina Frage
ein für allemal zu lösen !

Wer ist ISRAEL ? Kein Oel !

Die Palestinenser bekommen Ihren Staat zum "Nulltarif" !


Oder glaubt Ihr die Welt lässt sich durch die Judenfrage Ihr Schmiermittel wegnehmen ? !

Die Araber werden IHRE absolute Macht nutzen !

Da bin ich mir sicher !

Nur eine Frage der Zeit
bzw. Anzahl der von Israel getöteten Glaubensbrüder

Wir werden nächste Woche die 30$ + wiedersehen !

Meine Lösung : Solarer Wasserstoff jetzt !

Dann sind wir nicht erpressbar !

[M_B_S]

Iraqi bluster precedes Opec
By Toby Shelley
Published: May 28 2001 08:16GMT | Last Updated: May 28 2001 08:33GMT



Iraq might disrupt the oil market for a period of a few days but no more if it suspended exports, said a source at a Persian Gulf national oil company on Monday.

He noted that Saudi Arabia and other producers had said they would meet any cut in Iraq`s 2.1m barrel/day exports. The source said that with members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries currently producing well below their capacity, additional volumes could be brought onstream very quickly.

He said the market has come to expect periodic suspension of exports for around one week as the government in Baghdad uses oil output to underscore its objections to the sanctions regime imposed after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. This year, Baghdad is incensed by US attempts to revise the regime, introducing `smart sanctions` that would reduce criticism that Iraqi civilians rather than the authorities are the victims of the measures.

The likelihood is slight of a new sanctions regime being agreed before June 3 when the current oil-for-food deal comes up for renewal but warnings of market disruption from Taha Hmoud Mousa, senior oil undersecretary in Baghdad, also come just over one week ahead of a meeting of Opec ministers. Iraq has previously issued inflammatory statements ahead of Opec meetings to remind other producers and market players of its presence. Due to sanctions, Iraq is not party to Opec production quotas and so has lost much of its influence in deciding policy. On previous occasions it has demanded ahead of Opec meetings that Saudi Arabia slashes production, `returning` to Iraq the lion`s share of Baghdad`s quota that Riyadh assumed when Iraq was put under sanctions.

Oil markets will be quiet on Monday due to public holidays in the US and UK.

Tuesday is Morgen

[M_B_S]

USA betteln bei der Opec um Oel ! Quelle Yahoo

Saddam + Iran drohen mit Oel - Embargo !


Driving Season in den USA

Krise/Krieg in Nah - OST

Pfingsten in Europa


Fallende Europäische Oel - Förderung

Sehe Oelpreis in 4 - 8 Wochen bei min. 40 $

[M_B_S]

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) — Iraq followed up on its threat to halt most oil exports, stopping the flow early Monday to all but neighboring Turkey and Jordan.

The indefinite halt was meant to protest a U.N. Security Council decision to extend by one month instead of the usual six months the program under which Iraq can sell oil. Baghdad has chafed at U.N. controls over its oil exports — its sole foreign exchange earner — that stem from sanctions imposed for Iraq`s 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

War and sanctions have crippled the Iraqi economy, leaving many Iraqis dependent on government rations financed by the U.N.-supervised oil exports. Iraq has cash reserves, but it was unclear how long it could survive without further sales. It had been pumping about 3 million barrels a day.

Sources close to the Iraqi Oil Ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity Monday, said pumping oil through an Iraqi-Turkish pipeline to Turkey`s Mediterranean port terminal at Ceyhan stopped at 8 a.m. local time. Exports through Iraq`s southern al-Bakr oil terminal were also shut off, the sources said.

The sources said oil exports by road tankers to Turkey and Jordan were not affected. Iraqi Oil Minister Amer Mohammed Rashid had said Sunday that exports to Iraq`s neighbors would not be affected by the protest.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said Saturday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was ready to cover any shortfall in world oil production following Iraq`s halt. Other OPEC nations are pumping at top capacity, but Naimi said Saudi Arabia alone is capable of covering any shortage.

A delegation headed by the Iraqi Oil Ministry`s senior undersecretary, Taha Humud Musa, was dispatched to Vienna for a regular OPEC meeting that starts Tuesday. Rashid, speaking to reporters Sunday, played down the meeting`s importance, saying OPEC ministers have already agreed not to change production.

Rashid said Iraq has produced 3 million barrels of oil per day for the past two years, of which 2.3 million barrels per day were exported under the U.N. oil-for-food program.

Rashid had announced Saturday that Iraqi oil exports would stop until the Security Council agreed on the usual six-month extension of the oil-for-food program.

The one-month renewal announced Friday was a stopgap to give council members time to study a plan — proposed by Britain, backed by the United States and rejected by Baghdad — to amend the sanctions against Iraq.

Since 1996, the U.N.-supervised oil-for-food program has allowed Iraq to use its oil earnings to buy humanitarian goods.

The so-called smart sanctions proposal would allow civilian goods to flow freely into Iraq — except for goods that appear on a U.N. list of items that could be used for military purposes.

The plan also permits commercial and cargo flights in and out Iraq as long as they are inspected at their departure points. It is designed to tighten border controls around Iraq and to curb oil smuggling and illegal Iraqi surcharges.

Iraq wants all sanction lifted.

Das wird teuer ......... Barrel !

[M_B_S]

Iraq`s oil halt puts heat on OPEC
Price jump feared


Tanya Pang
Reuters
VIENNA - OPEC oil ministers were under pressure yesterday to react quickly to the suspension by Iraq of United Nations- monitored crude oil sales and stop another damaging rise in world oil prices.

But early signs indicated the cartel would resist calls to immediately fill the gap left by Baghdad`s decision to stop oil exports under a UN humanitarian program.

"There is no need to really increase production now because the prices are stable at US$25 [a barrel] and we are always here to meet the demand required in the market," Chakib Khelil, OPEC president, said on his arrival in Vienna.

OPEC meets tomorrow to discuss output for the third quarter of the year.

Rilwanu Lukman, Nigeria`s OPEC representative, said: "If the market calls for it, we will increase, but right now we don`t need to raise production.

"It depends how long it goes on for and the impact on the market. Last time it didn`t go on very long and OPEC didn`t need to do anything."

Iraq on Saturday announced a halt to deliveries under the UN oil-for-food exchange after the UN Security Council voted to extend the program by only a month, instead of the normal six-month renewal.

The decision was taken to allow more time for discussion on an Anglo-U.S. proposal to overhaul 11-year-old sanctions against Baghdad.

Amir Muhammed Rasheed, Iraqi Oil Minister, said the nation`s 2.1 million barrels a day would not be resumed until the UN reversed the decision.

Baghdad would keep its immediate neighbours supplied, he added.

Washington says it is in close contact with OPEC over the stoppage.

"We also have noted that major oil producers have again publicly pledged to move to retain stability in the oil market should supplies be cut for any reasons including by Iraq," a state department spokeswoman said.

That was a reference to Saturday`s comments by Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, who said OPEC would ensure sufficient supplies.

Oil dealers said OPEC could afford to wait a little while before lifting production.

"We`re not in a dire situation as far as supplies are concerned," said Lawrence Eagles of brokers GNI.


Wer es glauben will 40$ kommen so sicher wie das Amen !

[M_B_S]

Iraq to Continue Withholding Crude Oil
VOA News
10 Jun 2001 19:21 UTC

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is vowing to keep Iraqi crude oil off world markets if the U.N. Security Council moves to impose revised economic sanctions on his country.

An official Iraqi newspaper said the Iraqi leader told cabinet members late Saturday to prepare for a showdown over a U.S. and British-backed plan to overhaul sanctions imposed on Baghdad after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait - an event that triggered the Gulf War.

Under the U.S. and British-backed backed proposals, current sanctions would be revised to ease restriction on Iraqi civilian trade, while tightening a ban on weapons-related imports by the Baghdad government.

Iraq halted oil sales last week to protest security council moves to continue negotiations with Washington and London on the revised sanctions. The new sanctions proposals are set to be debated in the council next month.

The global impact of an Iraqi move to withhold crude from world markets is unclear. Last week Saudi Arabia pledged that Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will increase oil production if needed to offset any cutback in Iraqi production.

International trade sanctions against Baghdad were modified in 1996 to allow Baghdad to trade oil in exchange for food and medicines for Iraqi civilians.

Saddam in der Position der Stärke !

Oelman Bush im Dilemma !

Opec kann die Förderung nicht erhöhen ! s.o.

Wehe wenn der Winter kommt, und Irakisches Oel immer noch gesperrt ist !

[M_B_S]

Saudi Says OPEC Ready to Meet 2mbpd Iraq Outage-MEES
NICOSIA (Reuters) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC (news - web sites) stands ready to fill any supply gap arising from a prolonged disruption of Iraqi oil exports, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported on Monday.

``There is preparedness to provide the two million barrels per day-plus export number,`` MEES quoted Naimi as telling a briefing after the oil cartel`s meeting last week in Vienna.

``It is just a question of when -- in case it should be withheld from the markets for any length of time.``

Baghdad called a halt to United Nations (news - web sites)-supervised oil sales last Monday in protest over the U.N.`s decision to extend its oil-for-food program for one month rather than the usual six.

OPEC ministers shunned pressure to hike output following Baghdad`s move, choosing instead to meet again on July 3.

The Saudi oil minister said a month-long outage of Iraqi oil exports should not prove problematic.

``I think personally if it is a month, there is about 60 million barrels. This can be made up very quickly,`` MEES reported Naimi as saying.

``Given the level at which inventory is, we think the market can tolerate it without price spiking. We are going to watch how the market behaves.``

Iraq has indicated that it could halt exports for longer than a month if the U.N. fails to put in place a simple six month oil-for-food rollover by the end of June.

OPEC UNITY OR SOLO ACT?

When it does become necessary for the oil producers` group to hoist output, the Saudi oil minister said the kingdom -- the world`s biggest oil producer -- preferred to act together with OPEC but was prepared to go it alone.

``I don`t think it is going to be very difficult for Saudi Arabia to convince others when the time is necessary to put more crude in the market. We have done it before,`` Naimi said.

``We don`t really like to do it in isolation. We want to keep the organization together. I think we are past the point where we need to do things alone. But if we have to we will. There is no question about this.``

Naimi said if necessary the kingdom could boost output by 1.5 million bpd very quickly -- probably in a couple of weeks.

The Saudi oil minister appeared to stop short of committing to a precise figure for an output rise should OPEC need to step in to fill the supply gap created by Iraq.

But MEES said ``Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers evidently (were) tending to favor something in the region of two million bpd`` in the event of a prolonged suspension of Iraqi oil sales.

The Saudi oil minister said last week there was no doubt the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would boost output during the third quarter, but the exact time and volume were still to be decided.

``I have no doubt we are going to release more oil. It`s just a question of July, August or September and how much volume,`` he told reporters.

The Saudi oil minister said the kingdom`s crude oil customers could look to the spot market for additional supplies for the time being.

But some extra Saudi barrels will be rolling into the market this month as the kingdom is providing more gas to Riyadh power plants -- thus freeing up an extra 200,000 to 300,000 bpd of crude oil for export, Naimi said.

Was macht der Oelpreis : 30 $ +

Von wegen gerade mal 5% + des Weltweiten Oelverbrauchs mehr
zu fördern !

Das Wissen auch die IRAkER , daß die Saudis das nicht können ( wollen ) !

Sonst wär deren Maßnahme doch Sinnlos !

CU @ 40 $

Was meint Ihr warum in Israel sich die Weltelite die Türklinke in die Hand gibt ........ es geht ums OEL !

[M_B_S]

Oil ministry plays it cool as global prices heat up
By Sanjay Dutta

The Times of India News Service

NEW DELHI: India is yet to feel the heat of rising international crude prices as the hole being burnt in the oil pool account is within the government`s estimates, petroleum ministry officials said on Thursday.

The officials said the oil pool deficit at present stood at Rs 13,500 crore, up from Rs 12,500 crore as on March 31. A rise of Rs 1,000 crore in two-and-a-half month is well within the ministry`s estimate,`` one official said. The ministry had factored in a monthly rise of Rs 500 crore in the oil pool deficit after the Budget, taking the March price-band of $24-25 a barrel as a benchmark.

International oil prices have been rising after OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) refused to raise output following an Iraqi decision to stop sales. Since April, the price of Brent crude had been fluctuating between $27 and $28 a barrel, touching $30 on Tuesday and $29 on last Thursday.

``Although $25-a-barrel price is desirable, we can withstand the impact of the current price levels,`` the officials said, reiterating petroleum minister Ram Naik`s repeated assurances that there was no need to raise domestic prices of petrogoods.

The officials said at $24 a barrel, the oil pool account breaks even as at this price, there is ``neither an inflow nor an outflow`` of money from the account. In fact, the oil pool account saw some inflow during April when both Brent and Dubai crude had come down, the officials said but refused to give details.

In 2000-01, India imported 74.169 million tonnes of crude valued at Rs 66,086 crore. Together with 7.182 million tonnes of petroleum products imports, the total import bill stood at Rs 75,193 crore. In 1999-01, the total POL (petroleum, oil and lubricants) import bill stood at Rs 54,213 crore, while crude imports stood at 57.805 million tonnes and was valued at Rs 40,028 crore.

The officials, however, said the current higher prices would have some impact but there was no reason for concern as the country had adequate stocks of crude. This is why besides watching the market, officials are also looking out for corrective measures at the OPEC`s meeting scheduled for July 3. The meeting is also expected to announce some sops like concessional rates and deferred payment schedule for the developing countries.

Indien bekommt kalte Füsse und der Winter kommt erst noch !

40 $ das Barrel

[M_B_S]

Aktien- Crash mehr als Wahrscheinlich !

Oelpreis im Okt 2001 bei 40 $

Wer Wettet dagegen !

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

Market watch: International oil futures rise as Iraq suspends exports


By the OGJ Online Staff

HOUSTON, June 11 -- Oil futures prices rose Friday as more international traders worried about the possible impact on US markets by Iraq`s temporary shutdown of crude exports.

However, Alvaro Silva Calderon, Venezuela`s energy minister, said Friday, "There is sufficient crude on the market ... in fact there is an oversupply of between 1 (and) 2 million b/d." Silva Calderon made his remarks to reporters in Caracas shortly after he returned from the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna.

The July contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes rose 58¢ to $28.33/bbl Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The August contract increased 49¢ to $28.63/bbl.

Home heating oil for July delivery was up 0.73¢ to 76.65¢/gal, but unleaded gasoline for the same month dipped 0.02¢ to 88.83¢/gal. The July natural gas contract gained 13.2¢ to $3.92/Mcf on the NYMEX.

In London, North Sea Brent oil futures rallied to break through the $29/bbl level on the basis of strong technical indicators and anxiety over supplies to the US market.

Earlier in the week, oil prices on the International Petroleum Exchange had not moved significantly in reaction to Iraq`s latest stoppage of oil exports in a conflict with UN officials on proposed changes in the sanction rules. However, Iraq`s action became a "supportive factor" as the market`s mood became more bullish at the end of the week, brokers said.

The July Brent contract settled at $29.44/bbl Friday, up 94¢ for the day, after trading in a range of $28.45-$29.50/bbl. The July natural gas contract lost 3.2¢ to $2.92/Mcf.

The average price for OPEC`s basket of seven crudes increased by 29¢ to $26.84/bbl Friday.

For the whole week, that basket price averaged $26.83/bbl, up from $26.65/bbl the previous week. So far this year, the OPEC basket has averaged $24.88/bbl, compared to $27.60/bbl during all of last year.

"We want to see an average of about $25/bbl for this year," said Silva Calderon. As OPEC strengthens, it is more likely to keep world oil prices in the middle of its target band of $22-$28/bbl, he said.

Silva Calderon said President George W. Bush`s proposed US energy plan "emphasizes that country`s dependence on imported products. This coincides with our own plans. At the moment, we produce 60% crude and 40% products, but we plan to invert these proportions," he said.

Wer immer noch glaubt das Oel wird wieder billig dem ist nicht mehr zu helfen !

Stimmts Lockencop

[M_B_S]

Qatar Sees No Need for OPEC Move to Fill Iraq Gap
DOHA (Reuters) - Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said on Sunday he saw no need at present for OPEC (news - web sites) to act to fill an oil supply gap resulting from an Iraqi export cut.

``We act on the signals given by the market and at present the signal is that there is a lot of oil in the market,`` Attiyah told Reuters.

He said that prices have dropped by between $2 and $3 a barrel in the last two to three weeks ``despite the cut in the Iraqi exports.``

``This gives us confidence that even if Iraq extends the cuts after July 3, there will be no shortage of crude in the market,`` the minister added.

Iraq halted its oil sales on June 4 after the U.N. Security Council extended the oil-for-food program for one month instead of the usual six to allow more time to debate so-called ``smart sanctions`` proposed by the United States and Britain.

Baghdad has made clear it will only resume shipments, some five percent of world exports, if oil-for-food is renewed as normal.

Some diplomats do not see the U.N. agreeing on the Anglo-American package by July 3, in which case a no-changes, six-month rollover of the oil-for-food scheme is likely to be endorsed.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold an emergency meeting in Vienna on July 3 to determine its course of action on Iraq.

The cartel has vowed to fill any supply gap created by a prolonged suspension of Iraqi oil exports.

Some members of the oil producers` group see no need for OPEC to raise supplies in July if Iraq resumes sales next month.

``If Iraqi oil exports are back in July, it is very obvious that more supplies are not needed from OPEC,`` Hojjatollah Ghanimifard, acting vice-president of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), has told Reuters.

The NIOC official said the price drop in the past few days has underscored the opinion that supplies of crude oil are adequate -- even with some 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iraqi oil removed from the market.

World oil prices have tumbled about $3 a barrel over the past few days, pressured by mounting petroleum stockpiles in the United States, the world`s biggest oil consumer.

OPEC`s basket price for its seven crude oils -- at $25.35 per barrel on Tuesday -- now stands mid-range in its $22-$28 price band.

ja, man ist doch scheich 40$

[Stormy]

Hi M_B_S!

du bist ja sehr aktiv und Deine Beiträge sind sehr informativ. Vermutlich wirst du jedoch kaum Verhaltensänderungen herbeiführen.

Menschen, die am Strand liegend ein schweres Gewitter aufziehen sehen, tendieren dazu, auch den letzten Sonnenstrahl noch auszunutzen. Dabei holen sie sich einen nassen Arsch. Was dies für die Reaktion auf zukünftige Verknappung von Rohstoffen bedeutet, kannst du dir sicher ausmahlen!

[M_B_S]

Auf gehts OPEC zeigt die Zähne ! Saddam bleibt stur !

28 $

Sommerferien in Europa in Sicht ! Nachfragesteigerung !

30 $ + wieder Möglich Ende der Woche !

CU

[M_B_S]

Opec: Keine höhere Ölförderung
rtr Wien - Mehrere Opec-Ölminister haben sich vor ihrem Sondertreffen am Dienstag in Wien für die Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Ölförder- und -Exportmengen ausgesprochen. Venezuelas Ölminister Alvaro Silva sagte am Sonntag, der Markt sei ausreichend mit Öl versorgt.

Und die Scheichs mit fetten Gewinnen

3,5 % Inflation in der EU

0 Wachstum

Rezession ?

Leute weg vom OEL !

[M_B_S]

Trotz hoher Ölpreise steigt der weltweite Energieverbrauch weiter an

Trotz hoher Rohölpreise ist der weltweite Primärenergieverbrauch im vergangenen Jahr stark gestiegen. Er erhöhte sich nach zwei Jahren ohne nennenswertes Wachstum um 2,1 Prozent, sagte der Chefvolkswirt von BP, Ian Mc Cafferty, am Montag in Berlin bei der Vorstellung einer Energiestudie. Am stärksten legten die asiatischen Länder (ohne China) zu, die 5,1 Prozent mehr Energie verbrauchten. In Nordamerika erhöhte sich der Verbrauch wegen des strengen Winters um 2,7 Prozent, während die Länder der Europäischen Union und Japan 1,1 Prozent mehr benötigten.

Öl bleibt mit 39 Prozent am Energieverbrauch jedoch wichtigster Energieträger. Ein Comeback feierte die Kohle, die wegen relativ konstant gebliebener Preise erstmals seit 1996 wieder mehr nachgefragt wurde. Auch in Deutschland kam es hier nach sogar 15 Jahren Rückgang wieder zu einer Trendwende. Kohle hat gleichauf mit Gas jeweils 25 Prozent Anteil am Energieverbrauch.

Das alles bei sinkenden Vorräten ! s.o.

Tja, der Oelpreis wird weiter steigen !

[M_B_S]

Ein 1$ Sprung nach oben ! US Vörräte gehen rapide zurück !

Winter - Käufe stehen vor der Tür !

Irak ?
Israel ?
Oelförderung sinkt ! Europa
Opec : keine Erhöhung der Förderung ( können sie auch gar nicht s.o. )

Die Krise ist nur durch echte Substitution zu stoppen :

Solarer Wasserstoff Biofuel Brennstoffzelle jetzt !
Herr Schröder ! Wachen sie endlich auf !
Fragen sie Hermann Scheer wie es gehen kann !

Oelpreis +++++++
Inflation ++++++
Wirtschaft -----
Börse --------
Stimmung ------
Wiederwahl -----

Dt Oelrechnung für 2001 voraus. 40.000.000.000 DM !!

Dieses Geld könnte in Deutschland verbleiben wenn wir unsere
Energie solar selbst produzieren :
Das grösste Wirtschaftsförderprogramm aller Zeiten !

Packen wir es an !

[M_B_S]

NEW YORK: Oil rockets as crude supply tightens 07/07/2001 03:16:54
US oil prices rocketed more than a dollar Friday after a fall in crude oil stocks soothed concerns that a weaker economy was cutting into fuel demand.
August crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled $1.19 higher at $28.21 a barrel Friday, on the heels of a 78 cent rise Thursday caused by large draws in US petroleum stocks last week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday warned that oil inventories in the industrialized world will slip below normal levels by end-summer due to rising world demand and tighter supplies, in part caused by the loss of Iraqi exports in June.

OPEC`s decision last week to keep production quotas steady will add further pressure to supplies, and keep oil stocks low for the rest of the year, according to the EIA, statistics wing of the Department of Energy.

The resulting tightness should push US oil prices up $2 from June levels to near $30 a barrel by September, it added.

Officials from OPEC however say the expected return of Iraqi exports after Baghdad accepted a five-month extension of Iraq`s oil-for-food deal has put the market back in balance.

"Before Iraq closed production the situation was stabilized and the price was falling a bit," OPEC secretary-general Ali Rodriguez told reporters on the sidelines of a business conference in Interlaken, Switzerland.

"OPEC took the decision to maintain production levels and now the price is oscillating more or less around $25, which is the objective of OPEC. Now after the United Nations decision (to extend the oil-for-food deal) the situation is the same."

Iraq cut oil exports on June 4 in protest of a U.S.-British effort to revamp UN sanctions against Baghdad.

Russian objections blocked the effort, forcing an extension of the oil-for-food program without changes, conditions Iraq set in order to restart sales.


Reuters

US Winter Einkäufe stehen vor der Tür !

Preisalarm !!!!

[M_B_S]

So, jetzt ist es amtlich starke Preisanstiege erwartet :

IEA head warns OPEC inaction could fuel prices


Updated: Mon, Jul 09 4:25 AM EDT
By Belinda Goldsmith
CANBERRA, July 9 (Reuters) - The head of the West`s energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned on Monday that OPEC may be leaving it too late to alter production levels for the northern winter, making higher oil prices likely.

Robert Priddle, executive director of the IEA, has called on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since May to raise output to meet higher demand in the second half of the year when temperatures plummet in Europe and North America.

But at a meeting last week the cartel decided to leave output at 24.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to keep supplies balanced with demand and the price of OPEC`s reference basket of seven crudes between $22-28 a barrel.

advertisement





The group is scheduled to meet again on September 26.

"They are leaving it too late and, if our fears are realised, it will push prices up," Priddle told Reuters in an interview.

"If supplies are tightened as they were last year then prices can be driven up, like last year, to above $30 a barrel."

Priddle said if the global economic slowdown continued, demand could fall even further, easing the pressure on supplies.

"But at the moment the balance of probability is on a tightening supply situation," he said.

Priddle said the world economic slowdown was having an impact on petroleum demand and the Paris-based IEA again intended to trim its estimate of the growth in world oil demand this week.

"It won`t be dramatic but there will probably be some further adjustment to our figure simply because the world economic news is not very favourable," Priddle said.

"But demand is still good despite the economic downturn... we are still talking about growth," he said.

The IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report on July 13.

The agency last month left its forecast for world oil demand this year unchanged at 76.55 million bpd, projecting annual growth of about one million bpd. It had revised lower its forecast for demand growth in each of the six previous monthly reports.

IRAQ UNCERTAIN

So far this year OPEC -- which controls 40 percent of world production -- has cut output twice, taking 2.5 million bpd out of the market.

Iraq, which is a member of OPEC but does not have an output quota because of U.N. sanctions, stopped all crude exports -- some two million bpd -- on June 4 in protest at a U.S.-British effort to revamp decade-old embargoes slapped on Baghdad after it invaded Kuwait in 1990.

The proposal to overhaul the sanctions was dropped by the U.N. Security Council after Russia threatened to veto it. The council later approved a five-month extension of the oil-for-food programme, which allows Iraq to sell oil and buy humanitarian goods.

Priddle said it was a reasonable expectation Iraq would be back in full export mode this month and OPEC had taken this into account when it decided last week to hold production steady.

"But I am glad to say that several of the large suppliers, particularly Saudi Arabia, have said that whatever the collective decision in OPEC, if they see a shortage in the market they will seek to make it good and they do have the capacity to do that," he said.

"You have to look forward not back....to the fact in the third quarter of the year demand usually grows by some two million bpd over the previous quarter and it grows again in the fourth quarter. We`d like to see OPEC worrying now a bit more about supplies for the northern winter."

Priddle said stock positions had held up better this year than expected partly due to the fall in demand.

"Inventories are improving at the moment but one does need to build seriously for the winter and that is part of looking forward rather than looking back," he said.

[babyboomer]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[M_B_S]

Saudi says OPEC serious about new supply cut
(UPDATE: updates throughout)

By Matt Daily

BONN, July 19 (Reuters) - OPEC is considering cutting crude output again, its hand forced by a fall in oil prices and the deteriorating outlook for world oil demand, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Thursday.


The Saudi minister, OPEC`s most influential, said cartel ministers were in contact and were ``very serious`` about new supply curbs before the group`s next scheduled meeting at the end of September.

``The way prices are behaving and the way the projections are looking we have no choice,`` Naimi told Reuters in Bonn, where he is attending climate change talks.

Oil prices rallied on the comments, London Brent jumping 51 cents to $24.73 a barrel after eight straight days of losses. U.S. light crude was up 68 cents at $25.57 a barrel.

Brent remains nearly $5 below a mid-June peak and OPEC`s reference basket of crudes was valued on Wednesday at $22.64, near the bottom of the group`s preferred $22-$28 range.

A Saudi official had said on Wednesday that Riyadh believed something more than 500,000 barrels a day could be withdrawn to keep prices afloat.

``The Saudis have said they would do what`s needed to support prices, and their track record over the past two and a half years lends credence to these claims,`` said Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank.

OPEC has an informal agreement that output will be adjusted by 500,000 bpd if prices stray outside the $22-$28 range but the Saudi camp is keen that ministers not be bound strictly by the mechanism, which has only been used once before.

Ja, es geht wieder aufwärts ! Pünktlich wie die Scheichs
Fördermengen kürzen

Man ist doch Scheich oder ?

Auf ein gutes Heizoel Geschäft ! Der Winter kommt bestimmt.

[M_B_S]

BONN, July 21 (Reuters) - Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Saturday OPEC is expected to cut production by 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from September 1 in a bid to improve oil prices.

"We are expected to cut production, the question now is by how much. The reduction is expected to be between 1.0 and 1.5 million barrels a day," Naimi told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of global climate talks in Bonn.

Naimi said this output cut would be a critical OPEC decision and probably the cartel`s last production adjustment this year.

"I am very concerned about this. It is very serious. What we want to avoid is oil rising to $30 a barrel again," he said.

Naimi said he did not expect OPEC to raise production later this year when demand usually rises on a seasonal basis.

Naimi said he had been in contact with several OPEC ministers who all backed cutting production. He said OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez is discussing a supply curb with the cartel`s ministers.

Naimi said Saudi Arabia does not believe OPEC needs to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the output cut, but would welcome the idea if other ministers requested talks.

1 MIO - 1,5 Mio Barrel ! Das wird teuer ! 30 - 40 $ October

[Fricko]

Börsen-Crash 2001 !!!

Polen steht vor der Zahlungsunfähigkeit!
Somit werden Ungarn, Russland, sowie weitere Osteuropäische Staaten mit hineingezogen. In Argentinien brodelt es zusätzlich mit Zahlungsschwierigkeiten sowie Türkei.
(Auslöser des Crashs wird Polen sein)

Durch Polen ausgelöst, steht in den kommenden Wochen ein Aktien-Crash bevor. Der Crash wird so wie vor vier Jahren, also 1997 stattfinden. Der DAX wird um einiges einbrechen. Natürlich auch die neuen Märkte. Also wenn du noch Aktien im NEUEN MARKT hast denke dran.

Meldung von heute, insbesondere Warschau !!
Die Gesamtverfassung der Märkte, also insbesondere am Euro-Kapitalmarkt für Bonds, die dahinterstehenden Transaktionen in den Währungen Osteuropas, insbesondere Zloty, und der Nachrichtenstand von heute morgen aus Warschau erinnern sehr an die Situation in Südostasien vor 4 Jahren.
Hauptgrund: Polen hat ein Leistungsbilanzdefizit von annähernd 9 % des BIP, welches zu 80 % kurzfristig finanziert ist, wobei die deutschen Geldgeber absolut dominieren. Ich möchte nicht orakeln, aber: Wenn in dieser Situation kurzfristiges Geld zurückgezogen wird, ist der Crash da. Die Labilität der deutschen Bank-Aktien, die sich fundamental in dieser Weise nicht mehr erklären, sehe ich in diesem Zusammenhang.
Ich möchte kein Öl ins Feuer gießen, aber erwähnt muß es sein.
Es werden nicht nur die Bank-Aktien abstürtzen, sondern der gesammt Markt.
Dann sieht man D-logistics bei 5 E, AIXTRON unter 20 E, Brokat unter 2 E...... usw...
d. h. der NEMAX50 unter 1000 Punkten (750 Punkten sell out ?)

[M_B_S]

www.energiekrise.de wird von BP bestätigt !

The Guardian Online - http://www.ngrguardiannews.com
Sunday, August 5, 2001
Nigeria To Exhaust Oil Reserves In 29 Years

BY AMBROSE AKOR

POLITICAL REPORTER

NIGERIA`S oil reserves are to be exhausted in 29 years time, a British Petroleum (BP) report has said.

The recent report, which was carried out by BP to ascertain the quantity of oil reserves available worldwide and how long it would take to exhaust them, indicates that Nigeria has 22 billion barrels of oil untapped.

According to the report, it would take 29 years to exhaust these "proven reserves" available in the country if the current production level would be maintained.

Recent Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) reports show that 27.8 million barrels of crude oil was purchased from the federation during the first quarter of 2001.

By 1958 when commercial production of petroleum began, Nigeria was producing oil at the rate of 4,000 barrels per day and exporting the same from Port Harcourt.

By independence in 1960, Nigeria was producing 17,000 barrels per day.

Oil production in Nigeria, shortly after it joined the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in July 1971, was vigorously pursued and production in 1974 reached an all-time high of 2.2 million barrels per day.

A number of times, production levels rose or fell either because of drop in oil prices or for cutbacks ordered by OPEC.

According to the BP report, members of the OPEC cartel jointly have 815 billion barrels amounting to three-quarters of proven reserves worldwide.

The economically advanced countries, which use most of the world`s oil, have less than one-tenth of the world`s total reserves.

Saudi Arabia is the kingpin, singly having a quarter of the world`s proven reserves, amounting to 262 billion barrels, which is expected to last for 181 years.

Of all countries, Libya has the highest reserves of 26 billion barrels which by current production levels is expected to last for 55 years.

Nigeria is second to Libya in Africa but appears to be less economical with its reserves as its oil deposit which is only four billion barrels less than Libya`s is expected to be exhausted 24 years before Libya exhausts its reserves.

Algeria`s proven reserves of 10 billion barrels, according to the report, is expected to last for 17 years.

Angola with seven billion barrels of oil in proven reserves is expected to exhaust its deposits in 20 years. Oil took over from agricultural products as the premier export for Angola in 1973,

The BP report shows Venezuela as having 78 billion barrels in reserve and it is expected to exhaust the reserves in 66 years.

Iran with 85 billion barrels in proven reserves will equally produce until 66 years.

Kuwait has 97 billion barrels and United Arab Emirate 98 billion barrels but both have their reserves lasting for over a hundred years.

Some other countries mentioned in the report and their proven reserves include Indonesia with five billion barrels lasting 10 years; Britain with six billion barrels lasting five years; Canada with eight billion barrels lasting nine years and Azerbaijan with nine billion barrels lasting 63 years.

Others are Brazil with 10 billion barrels lasting 18 years; Kazakhstan with 10 billion barrels lasting 31 years; Norway with 12 billion barrels lasting eight years; China with 23 billion barrels lasting 20 years and Mexico with 25 billion barrels lasting 24 years.

The United States has 30 billion barrels of proven reserves and by its current production level the reserves will last for 10 years and Russia has 44 billion barrels in reserves which is going to last for 21 years.

A number of times before, global oil crises have reduced world oil production levels. Such an event is expected to affect the projections.

Global oil crisis reduced production in Nigeria from 2.10 million barrels per day in 1977 to 1.5 million barrels per day in February 1978.

GuARDIAN SERVER:7Sunday:Text:Oil P.1 5/8/2k1 Ngozika


Noch max. 20 Jahre um vom Oel weg zu kommen !

Oelreserven aufgebraucht in Nordafrika Nordamerika und Europa :

Norwegen !
Russland !
England !
USA !!!!!
Kanada
Angola
Algerien
Indonesien !!
China !!!!


Unglaublich unsere Politiker schlafen ........

Nur noch 20 Jahre um die gesamte Wirtschaft umzustellen !
Wo wir doch 100 Jahre gebraucht haben um die Oelwirtschaft aufzubauen !

Solarer Wasserstoff Biofuel !

[babyboomer]

Nochmals meine Frage

Sag mal weshalb hoffst Du eigentlich auf eine Wirtschaftkrise? Die Amis machen es doch vor dass wenn die
Wirtschaft nicht richtig läuft spielt die Umwelt eine untergeordnete Rolle spielt!

[M_B_S]

Meine Intension ist es die Krise zu verhindern !

Wir müssen weg vom Oel und zwar schnellstens !

Sonst kommt der BIG BANG !

Solarer Wasserstoff / Biofuel sofort !

[M_B_S]

Report says world will need more oil, at price of more reliance on OPEC
Reuters News Service

LONDON -- An upward revision to world oil demand means there will be more need for oil from the OPEC cartel this year and next than previously thought, the world`s energy watchdog said last week.

In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency said the "call on OPEC oil," is calculated by subtracting non-OPEC production from total demand, would be 400,000 barrels per day greater this year than it previously forecast, at 27 million barrels per day.

Next year the call on oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be 300,000 barrels per day more than earlier estimates, the report said, although the absolute level is expected to sink to 26.8 million barrels per day in 2002 because of more production expected outside the cartel.

The big revision paints a more bullish picture for global oil markets, particularly after OPEC`s recent decision to slash output by 1 million barrels per day from Sept. 1.

The agency`s adjustment in OPEC oil requirements derives from a substantial upward revision in global oil demand estimates for every year from 1999 through to 2002, the agency said.

It said delays in receiving reliable data from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, were behind the changes, which saw this year`s global demand rise by 500,000 barrels per day to 76.39 million barrels per day.

"Data for over 40 percent of non-OECD demand become available only about 20 months after the end of the year in question," it said.

The upward revisions in absolute demand figures had little impact on annual growth forecast because the revisions applied to every year from 1999 to 2002.

OPEC pumped 27.07 million barrels per day of crude oil in June, equivalent to about 35 percent of global demand, the IEA said.

The 10 OPEC members bound by supply restrictions pumped 880,000 barrels per day above quota in July, at 25.08 million barrels per day.

OPEC`s output including Iraq, which is exempt from quotas because of U.N. sanctions, totaled 27.07 million barrels per day in July.

The International Energy Agency was set up in the 1970s to defend the interests of oil consuming nations against OPEC, an 11-member producer group which controls two-thirds of world exports.

OPEC has engineered an oil price rally since 1999 with drastic oil output cuts that have continued this year with three separate reductions, including September`s 1 million barrels per day curb.

All of next year`s forecast 1 percent global demand growth, equivalent to 790,000 barrels per day of oil, will be met by non-OPEC production growth, the IEA said.

The world will consume 77.18 million barrels per day in 2002, of which 47.25 million barrels per day will be supplied by producers outside the OPEC cartel, the report said.

na das sind ja tolle Aussichten .... ziehen wir uns warm an , denn die Heizungen werden auf sparflamme laufen müssen ! Zumendest wenn sie mit Oel oder Gas betrieben werden !

[M_B_S]

OIL MARKET TALK: $30 Oil In Stks Drop/Demand Rise - Merrill

PETROLEUMWORLD
Caracas, Aug. 20

1406 GMT (Dow Jones) Are we returning to $30/bbl oil? Merrill Lynch`s Steven Pfeifer says it`s likely. The firm increased its 2001 oil price forecast for WTI to $27/bbl from $26.50. Pfeifer expects petroleum inventories to drop following OPEC production cuts in Sep, and then seasonal demand will pick-up in the winter. The result: price spikes above $30. Diverging from the Wall Street consensus view, Pfeifer said oil prices may average higher in 2002 than in 2001. (CCC)


Ja, ich steh nicht allein ! Die 30 $ kommen wieder !

Es sei denn der Winter bleibt aus

[M_B_S]

Tuesday, 21 August, 2001, 05:15 GMT 06:15 UK
Oil production hits six-year low


Oil production hit a six-year low in June

Oil production in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in six years, according to new figures.
Economists from the Royal Bank of Scotland have published statistics which show that production fell below two million barrels a day during June.

The average value of output during this period was £39.23m a day - a drop of nearly £10m on the previous year.

Britain`s oil production comes mainly from the North Sea.


BBC:
Gas production is forecast to hit last year`s high

Bank economists say a combination of factors - summer maintenance shutdown periods, uncertainty over oil prices and the legacy of a period of low investment in 1999 and 2000 - were responsible for the decrease.

In the period from May to June, the Royal Bank`s oil and gas production index fell from 131.8 to 121.1.

Average daily output figures show the May level of 2.17 million barrels a day tailing off to 1.993 million barrels a day in June.

The bank`s economists also said that the daily value of oil produced in June was £3.8m lower than May`s level.

Und Sie haben doch recht ! www.energiekrise.de

[M_B_S]

COLUMN: U.S. reliance on oil running out of gas


LINCOLN, Neb., Aug 27, 2001 (Daily Nebraskan, U-WIRE via COMTEX) -- I notice
that gas prices have been steadily rising over the past week and a half.

Once again, another holiday famous for traveling is coming up and big oil and
the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wouldn`t dare miss out on
another great opportunity to gouge the consumer.

Prices have risen almost a quarter in the last 10 days.

I used to not even notice the price of gas, back when it never fluctuated more
than a nickel a year, and I drove an economical car. Now that I own a truck,
which costs me $35 to fill up and I get around 18 miles per gallon, I can`t help
but notice.

After years of complaining about OPEC and the oil companies, I finally tired.

I started to realize that these cooperatives and companies aren`t totally to
blame. They have consistently put out a good product and offered it to the
United States at below bargain-basement prices. We`re complaining about $1.75 a
gallon when Europeans are paying close to $5.

My beef is now with the auto manufactures.

I don`t understand how these corporations, who have been around for almost a
century, still cannot produce an engine that is powerful, economical and doesn`t
pollute as much. I want to know where the alternative fuels are and why they
weren`t developed earlier and faster.

I want to know why they are targeting consumers to buy these big hulking beasts
that for some reason don`t have to meet the not-so-stringent demands of 25 mpg
that passenger cars do. And I want to know why these companies aren`t more
worried about the Earth and the finite number of barrels of crude it can supply.

If I were running these auto manufactures, my No. 1 priority would be developing
more economical engines. Because there would be nothing more frightening then
running out of gas to put into these products.

The only thing these executives are worrying about is their bottom line and
profits.

And the larger the vehicle, the higher the profits.

And that`s OK when you`re looking at the short term. But once you`ve saturated
the market with gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks, and you run down the oil reserves,
the only place you`re going to get is somewhere high and dry.

The way I look at the whole picture is that we supposedly landed a man on the
moon -- 250,000 miles away -- in the 1960s for God`s sake.

Now at the dawn of the new millennium, we can`t even produce a truck that can
average 25 to 30 mpg, let alone a car that can run on water or Mr. Fusion. Hell,
Doc Brown got it right back in 1985.

Somewhere these technologies exist, and all we have to do is find them and make
them available.

We can keep people in space for years, we`ve mastered atomic energy and we`ve
even invented batteries that are good for decades.

The power is out there, we`re just not utilizing it.

We are so enamored by the thick black smoke of coal- and oil-powered energy that
we have been blinded to the answers of wind and solar power.

Unfortunately, these powers aren`t stable enough for automotive use, but they
are great for our homes and businesses. I have spent a fair amount of time in
western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming and let me tell you, as I`m sure you`ve
already deduced, there is absolutely nothing out there except wind.

All you have to do is put up a bunch of wind turbines and you have a renewable
source of energy that`s clean, quiet and lasts forever.

Harnessing the sun is even easier.

With America`s unrelenting drive to completely deplete the ozone layer, the suns
rays are even stronger, producing more kilowatts per hour than years ago.

On top of all my wants for better energy sources and more economical vehicles,
it just doesn`t make sense to complain about the big oil companies and OPEC.

Like I said, they supply us with a great product.

Which at the moment is pretty much the only fuel source we are allowed to use.
Compared to other products, it`s a steal. I can drive 18 miles for a mere $1.75.
There is no way I could even walk five miles on a 99-cent bottle of water.

In this day and age, it shouldn`t be about what you spend your money on, but
what you make your priorities. Some people think that it`s all right to spend $1
on 20 ounces of tap water or $40,000 on an off-road vehicle that will never
leave the concrete jungle.

We all extract a worth out of these things.

And as much as I hate to say it, $1.75 for a gallon of gas is pretty reasonable.
I just wish we weren`t afraid to learn how to use it more economically and that
we could find a better way of powering all of our truly unneeded electrical
wonders.


Yeahhh !

[M_B_S]

So, die US Winter - Käufe stehen vor der Tür !

Das Kartell sorgt jetzt für 30 $ !

Das Geschäft lässt man sich doch nicht entgehen

Oil prices likely to head upward by end of year
M. Ray Perryman
These are interesting times in the world of energy, especially if you are keeping an eye on the industry`s high-profile bellwether: the price of gasoline. And who isn`t?

A truckload of complex explanations has been offered for the volatility of fuel and energy prices, but the underlying issue is one of supply and demand. In 2000, Americans consumed 20 quadrillion more BTUs (British thermal units) of energy than were produced; if the ratio doesn`t change, Americans` lifestyles will. That change may now be underway.

Oil reserves at the close of the second quarter of 2001 were substantially higher than expected just six months ago. A big factor responsible for the increased supply was the increased output by U.S. and international refineries. Facilities already in operation revved up production to record levels, and a few others came back on line. Some bottlenecks in the supply chain were also eliminated.

The demand side of the energy equation has also changed. The demand for fuel is directly linked to economic growth, and activity around the world is sluggish. By varying degrees, economies in the United States, the European Union (especially Germany and Italy), Japan, and around the world have slowed; one consequence has been a reduction in the global demand for oil.

As the United States works at jump-starting its economy, the changing status of oil reserves did not go unnoticed by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). With an estimated 36 percent of global oil supply and holdings exceeding 75 percent of the world`s proven reserves, the cartel exerts considerable control over the world supply of oil, and, hence, the price of crude. Cartel leaders decided to reduce output by 1 million barrels a day beginning in September. This third cutback for the year comes at about the same time (early July) that Iraq ends its month-long halt of exports.

The impact of both actions is uncertain, but the likely overall effect will be a tightening of oil markets just as winter, the peak oil usage time, hits major Western purchasers such as the United States. One important factor with the potential to alter this balance of supply and demand is a dramatic change (for better or worse) in the global economy.

Inventories are now at a two-year high and the cost of gas declined for eight consecutive weeks (before rising again at the end of August). Moreover, the price of natural gas is at its lowest in 18 months. The extreme concern over electric deregulation has also subsided, as California`s woes have eased to some extent.

Given the lack of panic at present, concern over establishing an aggressive energy program has waned. But if long lines, high prices, and power outages return, enthusiasm will bubble up for an energy policy that moves the United States toward more independent and diverse oil supplies

[M_B_S]

Opec wants higher prices - Venezuela
Caracas |Reuters | 05-09-2001
Print friendly format | Email to Friend

Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Alvaro Silva said the Opec oil group was still fighting for higher oil prices, despite concerns among Western nations that could push the world economy toward recession.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries implemented a production cutback of 1 million barrels a day from September 1, its third reduction this year, with the aim of keeping the price of its basket of crude oil at between $22 and $28 a barrel.

Opec`s basket of seven crude oils stood on Monday at $25.20 a barrel; it has averaged $24.77 a barrel so far this year.

Silva said in recent years, oil prices had averaged more than the $25-a-barrel mid-point of Opec`s band "without distortions or harming the world economy."

"Today, prices are below that level, and we believe that prices could be higher, and within Opec, we are fighting for that," the minister said.

Wir kämpfen um höhere OEL Preise !

[Jens T]

Du gibtst einfach nicht auf, was?

Gibt es Dir nicht zu denken, dass diese Meinungsäußerung ganz offensichtlich niemanden interessiert hat?

Der Preis an NYMEX und IPE ist seit Montag (als Silva das gesagt hat) sogar gefallen!

Die Futures sind von Monat zu Monat niedriger (Januar ist im Moment billiger als Oktober!)

OPEC basket price ist aktuell genau dort, wo die OPEC ihn haben will (25 USD/bbl)

Die Lager sind immer noch besser gefüllt als vor einem Jahr (trotz fünfwöchigem Irak-Lieferstopp)



Was ich Dich schon immer mal fragen wollte:
Warum postest du eigentlich unter zwei verschiedenen ID`s?

[M_B_S]

Oel wieder deutlich über 27 $ !

Und der Crash geht weiter !

Wir müssen weg vom Oel es schnürt uns die Luft ab !

Winter käufe kommen noch !

SOFORT !

Deutsche Oel und Gasrechnung 2001 bei knapp 100.000.000.000 DM !!!

Das halten wir nicht lange durch : Jahr für Jahr so einen Aderlass !

Und das Oel wird immer teurer werden im Durchschnitt !

[Jens T]

kann man mit dir eigentlich auch richtig diskutieren oder hast du außer deiner ständigen panikmache nichts zu bieten?

mann, du nervst!

[M_B_S]

Ihr wolltet nicht hören !

Jetzt haben wir den Salat 30 $ + in den kommenden Wochen !

Ich halte jede Wette !

Oil: Prices get a lift from US stockdraw

08.09.2001

LONDON - Oil prices surged on Thursday (London Time) after US data showed a draw in national stocks of crude and petroleum products that raised concerns over winter fuel stocks.

London Brent futures last traded 63 cents higher at $26.95 after climbing to a more than two-month high of $27.00. US light crude gained 59 cents to $27.54.

The US Department of Energy said in a weekly report that a sharp fall in crude imports and an upturn in refinery operations cut into stocks of crude.

Inventories fell two million barrels to 302.5 million barrels during the week ending August 31. Stocks of distillates, including heating oil, slipped 300,000 barrels to 120.4 million.

"This is just enough information to start up heating oil worries again," said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in the US

Normally, distillate stocks rise at this time of the year as the West builds fuel supplies ahead of winter.

Oil prices are on the rebound after Opec curbed output for a third time this year. A July agreement saw the group cut supplies by a million barrels daily effective from the start of September.

Oil prices also have found support from bickering between Iraq and the United Nations over crude export pricing periods under the UN`s oil-for-food exchange with Baghdad.

Britain and the United States are pushing for shorter pricing periods in an effort to stem illegal surcharges Iraq receives from oil buyers.

Iraq has sold oil and bought food, medicine and other goods under a UN programme since December 1996. The programme aims to ease the impact of sanctions imposed on Iraq in August 1990, when it invaded Kuwait.

Tensions rose this week after Iraq expelled UN aid workers, who were working for the oil-for-food programme.

Baghdad has accused the workers of being involved in acts that infringed on its national security.

- REUTERS

Wir müssen weg vom Oel so schnell als möglich !

[M_B_S]

Diskutieren nein ! Handeln Handeln

Es gibt hier nichts zu Diskutieren !

Man macht das was Notwendig ist aus wirtschaftlicher Sicht oder geht mit UNTER !


Energie
08.09.2001

Verzicht auf fossile Energieträger fördert langfristig die Wirtschaft
Die Abkehr von fossilen Energieträgern führt langfristig zu einem wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung und zu einer gesteigerten Nachfrage für alternative Energietechnologien. Zu dieser Einschätzung kommt eine Studie, die das ICCEPT (Imperial College Centre for Energy Politicy and Technology) im Auftrag der staatlichen Stiftung "Carbon Trust" angefertigt hat. Die britische Regierung gründete den "Carbon Trust" im März 2001, um das Programm zur Reduzierung von Treibhausgasen umzusetzen.



Die Studie, die auf der Basis von Experteninterviews erstellt wurde, hält die Einsparung fossiler Energieträger aus technologischer und wirtschaftlicher Sicht für möglich. Die Experten gehen davon aus, daß sich die Preise für fossile Energien in den kommenden Jahrzehnten verdoppeln bis verdreifachen. Als Folge wird das Marktpotenzial von neuen Energietechnologien und regenerativen Energien stark steigen. Der Bedarf an fossilen Energien wird dann aufgrund effizienterer Nutzungs- und Erzeugungsformen und durch die zunehmende Bedeutung von erneuerbaren Energien abnehmen.

Zur Reduktion klimaschädigender Gase empfehlen die Experten zwei Maßnahmenpakete. Zur mittelfristigen Energieeinsparung setzen sie zum einen auf die verbesserte Energienutzung. Effizienzgewinne sollen dabei zum Beispiel durch Maßnahmen an Gebäuden, in industriellen Anwendungen oder beim Transport erreicht werden etwa durch dezentrale Energiegewinnung in Anlagen mit Kraftwärmekopplung oder mit alternativen Energieträgern wie Biomasse oder Windkraft.

Langfristig sei jedoch ein völliger Verzicht fossiler Energieträger anzustreben. Eine Energieversorgung solle dann durch Solarenergie, Wasserstofftechnologien und verschiedene Offshore-Technologien sichergestellt werden. Die Voraussetzung dazu sei, neben einer optimierten Anwendung der Brennstoffzelle, die Entwicklung von wirksamen Energiespeichern und Transportsystemen, um Angebotsschwankungen der erneuerbaren Energiequellen auszugleichen.


Brigitte Kranz
Quelle bdw.de

Es ist alles gesagt ! Schröder schläft weiter !

Und bei Bush ...... ein Wahnsinniger !

[LOOM]

Außer mit Aktien und beim privaten Energieverbrauch können wir nicht handeln !

Das der Verzicht auf fossile Energieträger sehr, sehr wünschenswert ist, steht außer Frage.
Die Ölmultis werden dies aber zumindest kurzfristig zu verhindern wissen.

Bei 25$ machen alle einen dicken Gewinn. Würde man diesen Preis für die nächsten 10 Jahre
garantieren, hätten die Unternehmen Planungssicherheit und du würdest im Öl ersaufen.

Mit jedem $ über dieser Marke lohnen sich auch weitere unattraktive Lagerstätten.

LOOM

[Jens T]

@ M_B_S bzw. M-B-S (was soll das eigentlich?)


da du offensichtlich nichts anderes kannst als irgendwelche Meldungen von irgendwoher hier reinzukopieren, mache ich das jetzt eben auch mal so
(obwohl ich eigentlich viel lieber mal vernünftig (mit ARGUMENTEN !) über dieses thema reden würde, aber das wird wohl nichts ...)



Umweltbundesamt: Wasserkraftwerke schädigen Umwelt

10.09.2001 Berlin (dpa). Kleinere Wasserkraftwerke können trotz sauberer Energieerzeugung einer Studie des Umweltbundesamtes (UBA) zufolge schädlich für die Natur sein. In die noch wenigen naturnahen Gewässer sollten keine neuen Wasserkraftanlagen gebaut werden, forderte das UBA am Montag in Berlin. Die Kraftwerke veränderten das gesamte Ökosystem der Flüsse, die Turbinen könnten Fische schädigen. Sinnvoller sei es, bestehende Anlagen an großen Flüssen effizienter zu machen.
Nach einer UBA-Studie gleicht bei kleineren Kraftwerken bis zu 1000 Kilowatt der geringe Beitrag zur sauberen, also Kohlendioxid sparenden Energieerzeugung die Nachteile für die Natur nicht aus. Zum Vergleich: Mit 1000 Kilowatt können 100 000 Stromsparlampen mit einer Leistung von zehn Watt betrieben werden.

Derzeit werden nach UBA-Angaben etwa vier Prozent des gesamten Stroms durch Wasserkraft gewonnen. Das Potenzial der Wasserkraft sei in Deutschland bereits zu etwa 70 Prozent ausgeschöpft. Doch vor allem in naturnahen und kleinen Gewässern würden immer neue Kraftwerke gebaut, um das restliche Potenzial auszunutzen. Der dadurch notwendige Aufstau der Flüsse füge den Gewässern schwere Umweltschäden zu. Die Fließgeschwindigkeit des Wassers verringere sich, so dass die Flüsse verschlammten. Wanderfischarten könnten wegen der Stauanlagen nicht mehr zu ihren Laichplätzen gelangen.

[M_B_S]

@ Jens T


Ich weiss : Wasserkraft schädigt das Oekosystem und Oel ist Dünger !

Bush ist zumindest dieser Meinung

Beim UBA Bericht geht es um Grosskraftwerke !

Aber was hat Wasserkraft mit dem hohen Oelpreis zu tun ?!

PS ARAL will 1000 Tankstellen auf Erdgas umrüsten ! Warum wohl : Oel wird zu teuer was sonst !

[M_B_S]

Leider

Zu spät meine Warnung !

ENDE des Threads

Versprochen

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

UK Ölproduktion weiter im Decline und die Gasproduktion?
EK - 6.7.2002: Die Ölproduktion von Großbritannien geht weiter zurück, nachdem im Januar
2002 durch den Anschluß neuer Felder nochmals ein Mehrertrag gegenüber dem Vormonat
erzielt worden war. Die Produktionshistorie ist in der folgenden Grafik zusammen mit einer
Prognose der LBST vom Februar 2001 zu sehen.


Abbildung: Vergleich der Prognose mit der tatsächlichen Ölförderung UK

Aber auch die Ausweitung der Gasförderung scheint an ihre Grenzen zu stossen. Der rasante
Produktionszuwachs des vergangenen Jahrzehnts kam zum Erliegen. Im Winter 2001/2002
blieb die Produktion erstmals hinter dem Vorjahr zurück. Ob man damit auch das Maximum
der Gasproduktion schon überschritten hat, kann heute noch nicht schlüssig beurteilt werden.
Es wird sich schon sehr bald zeigen, ob die Produktion nochmals auf das alte Niveau erhöht
werden kann, oder ob sie von nun an aufgrund mangelnder Reserven zurückgehen wird.


Abbildung: UK Gasproduktion

Die Öl- und Gasförderung der USA
EK - 6.7.2002: Der von einigen Beobachtern befürchtete Zusammenbruch der Gasversorgung
im vergangenen Winter ist ausgeblieben. Im Gegenteil: die Preise liegen erstaunlich niedrig,
die Gasspeicher konnten überraschend gut wieder aufgefüllt werden, die Wirtschaft beginnt
sich zu erholen. Wie bereits mehrfach hier angesprochen liegt das vor allem an zwei Faktoren:
Einmal hat sich der industrielle Gasverbrauch deutlich gegenüber den Erwartungen reduziert.
Die hohen Preise des Winters 2000/2001 zeigten hier eine Lenkungswirkung. Zum zweiten
aber war der Winter 2001/2002 ungewöhnlich mild, so dass der Gasbedarf deutlich hinter den
Erwartungen zurückblieb. Dadurch konnten die Gasspeicher wieder aufgefüllt werden, was zu
den niedrigen Preisen geführt hat.

Doch bei den niedrigen Preisen ließen auch die Investitionen in neue Bohrungen nach - die
Zahl der neu angeschlossenen Quellen ist in den letzten Monaten gegenüber dem Höhepunkt
um ca. 45 % zurückgegangen. Das wiederum wird mit einigen Monaten Verzögerung einen
Produktionsrückgang nach sich ziehen, wie Raymond James oder Matthew Simmons in ihren
Analysen ausführen. Für diesen Winter scheint daher ein ähnliches Szenario, wie es für
2000/2001 befürchtet wurde, unausweichlich zu sein: Die Produktion wird weiter zurückgehen,
(möglicherweise sogar mit 10 % oder mehr gegenüber dem Vorjahr) und wenn der Gasbedarf
saisonal wieder steigt, werden die schockartigen Preisanstiege von neuem für wirtschaftliche
Turbulenzen sorgen.


Abbildung: US Erdgas Versorgung-Verbrauch


Abbildung: US Erdgas Bedarf

Aber auch die amerikanische Ölproduktion kann nur aufgrund des Produktionszuwachses im
tiefen offshore-Bereich des Golfs von Mexiko noch einigermaßen aufrecht erhalten werden.
Sobald auch dort das Maximum überschritten wird, wird der Rückgang der amerikanischen
Ölproduktion wesentlich deutlicher als in der Vergangenheit ausfallen. Zudem bestehen heute
20 % der US-Produktion aus Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) und Kondensaten. Da diese jedoch
ein Begleitprodukt der Erdgasförderung sind, ist zu befürchten, dass bei einem Rückgang der
Erdgasproduktion die NGL-Produktion ebenfalls deutlich einbrechen wird.





First Internationaler Workshop on Oil Depletion (IWOOD 2002) in Uppsala
EK - 6.7.2002: Am 24 und 25 Mai fand der erste Internationale Workshop on Oil Depletion in
Uppsala, Schweden, statt. Der Geologe Colin Campbell hatte die Tagung gemeinsam mit Prof.
Kjell Aleklett von der Universität Uppsala organisiert und dazu weltweit eingeladen. Insgesamt
waren fast 60 Teilnehmer aus Australien, Dänemark, Deutschland, Finnland, Frankreich, Iran,
Irland, Portugal, Schweden, Rußland und den USA gekommen. Die Abstracts,
Folienpräsentationen und Vortragstexte können unter http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002
eingesehen werden.

Die Konferenz erregte international großes Aufsehen, wozu unter anderem auch die Teilnahme
von Matthew Simmons aus den USA beitrug (Simmons gilt als ein wichtiger Berater des US
Präsidenten George Bush in Energiefragen). Die Teilnahme von M. Simmons an dem Seminar
und seine explizite Hervorhebung der Bedeutung von Campbell und Laherrere lassen den
Schluß zu, dass sich in den USA künftig eine neue Kommunikationsstrategie andeutet. Jetzt
wird es für die Ölindustrie wesentlich schwieriger werden, die Aussagen Campbells oder
Laherreres als die von inkompetenten Aussenseitern zu diskreditieren. Es könnte sein, dass
die amerikanische Regierung bald direkt mit dem Problem der Gas- (und Öl-)verknappung
konfrontiert ist, und es keinen Sinn mehr macht, dies weiterhin öffentlich zu ignorieren. Ob das
ein Affront gegen die Interessen der Ölindustrie ist oder vielleicht doch in deren längerfristigem
Interesse liegt, läßt sich momentan schwer einschätzen. Tatsächlich aber tritt Simmons
gleichzeitig die Flucht nach vorne an, indem er einmal verstärkte Anstrengungen in die
Erschließung der verbleibenden Öl- und Gasfelder fordert, andererseits aber in einem
zielgerichteten Engagement für den Bau neuer Kohle- und Kernkraftwerke den einzigen
Ausweg sieht. An erneuerbare Energien scheint er ebensowenig zu glauben wie an
effizienzsteigernde Maßnahmen.

Das Thema des "nahenden Maximums der Ölförderung" hat durch die Veranstaltung ein
breiteres Publikum erreicht, ein weltweites Echo bewirkt und an Glaubwürdigkeit in der
Öffentlichkeit gewonnen - unabhängig von den sehr divergierenden Auffassungen, was denn im
Angesicht der Lage zu tun sei.

Kurzfassungen wichtiger Beiträge zum IWOOD2002 Workshop in Uppsala:
Die Abstracts, Folienpräsentationen und Vortragstexte aller Beiträge können unter
http://www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002 eingesehen werden. Nachfolgend ein kurzer Bericht über
einige Beiträge aus Sicht von energiekrise.de:

Colin Campbell erläuterte den aktuellen Stand der Diskussion und präsentierte
Berechnungen zu den künftigen Produktionsmöglichkeiten, die auf einer Einzelanalyse der
einzelnen Staaten aufbauen. Demnach erwartet Campbell, dass die konventionelle
Ölproduktion in den kommenden Jahren weitgehend stagnieren wird, bevor um 2010 die
Produktion zurückgehen wird. Im unkonventionellen Bereich wird vor allem polares Öl (z.B.
Sibirien) und Tiefseeöl (z.B. Golf von Mexiko, Brasilien und Angola,) noch die Produktion
ausweiten können, so dass die maximale Verfügbarkeit aller flüssigen Kohlenwasserstoffe
etwa um 2010 erreicht sein wird und danach unweigerlich zurückgehen wird. Dieses Szenario
ist sehr vorsichtig, da hier z.B. noch eine erhebliche Produktionssteigerung in den
Golfanreinerstaaten sowie eine zügige Erschließung der Tiefseevorkommen unterstellt werden.

Matthew Simmons erläuterte, wie er als Spezialist für die Finanzierung von Ölbohrungen
nach und nach lernte, eine eigene Einschätzung der Situation zu gewinnen. Sein Erstaunen
darüber, dass er den für ökonomische Fragen zuständigen Fachleuten innerhalb der Ölfirmen
das erzählen musste, was er eigentlich von Ihnen zu lernen erhofft hatte, führte nach und nach
bei ihm zu der unabweisbaren Erkenntnis, dass die Analysen von Campbell, Laherrere und
anderen aus der Geologenszene sehr viel realistischer sind als die beruhigenden Aussagen der
Ökonomen über mögliche künftige Steigerungsraten der Ölproduktion. Insbesondere kritisierte
Simmons auch die amerikanische Energieinformationsbehörde wegen ihrer unbrauchbaren
Prognosen und Statistiken. Simmons ließ keinen Zweifel, dass der kommende Winter eine
Gasknappheit in den USA bringen werde, mit einem Förderrückgang von mindestens 10 %
gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Er deutete an, dass das Jahr 2002 für die amerikanische
Gasproduktion ein ähnlicher Wendepunkt werden könnte wie es das Jahr 1970 für die
amerikanische Ölförderung war.

Ray Leonard (Vizepräsident von Yukos Oil) erläuterte, dass Russland seine Produktion
nochmals auf das Niveau von 1989 steigern könne. Die Reserven seien mit etwa 50 Gb größer
als angenommen. Aber auch er räumte ein, dass dies auf die weltweite Versorgungssituation
keinen entscheidenden Einfluß haben werde. In diversen Gesprächen am Rande des
Workshops äußerten allerdings andere Fachleute auch deutliche Zweifel, inwieweit Herr
Leonard nicht nur ein optimistisches Zukunftsbild seiner Firma zeichnen wolle. Man wird
sehen, wie lange die derzeitigen Produktionsausweitungen russischer Firman anhalten werden.

Ali Bakhtiari (Senior Advisor der National Iranian Oil Company) ließ mit seinen Ausführungen
keinen Zweifel daran, dass die Industriestaaten die künftigen Produktionsmöglichkeiten der
OPEC-Staaten deutlich überschätzten. Der Iran etwa könne seine Ölproduktion künftig kaum
noch erhöhen, da die Basis der heutigen Produktion die vier größten Felder bildeten. Diese
seien am Produktionsmaximum. Die verbleibenden kleineren Felder könnten auf lange Sicht
kein adäquater Ersatz sein. Nach Bakhtiaris Berechnungen könnte die OPEC insgesamt unter
günstigsten Bedingungen (genügend große Investitionen, keine Verzögerungen bei der
Erschließung neuer Produktionskapazitäten) maximal 45 Mb/Tag in etwa 10 - 15 Jahren
produzieren. Das wäre eine Steigerung gegenüber heute von etwa 50 Prozent. Aber seiner
Einschätzung nach werden die dazu erforderlichen "günstigsten Bedingungen" nie eintreten.

Roger Bentley vom von der Astor-Stiftung unterstützten gemeinnützigen Oil Depletion
Analysis Center in London analysierte die Prognosen der 70er und 80er Jahre und kam zu dem
Schluß, dass hinsichtlich der Verfügbarkeit die meisten Prognosen recht genau waren. Einzig,
weil die Nachfrage nicht so stark zugenommen hatte wie damals erwartet wurde, wurde das
Maximum der Verfügarkeit bisher noch nicht überschritten.

Sehr lesenswert ist auch die Analyse der Ölproduktion in Alaska durch Jeremy Gilbert, der
zwanzig Jahre lang der als leitender Ölingenieur für BP gerarbeitet hat und die letzten Jahre
seiner Karriere mit Analysen in Alaska zugebracht hat. Das Fazit seines Vortrages: In Alaska
wird jede nur erdenkliche Technologie eingesetzt und ausprobiert - und dennoch geht die
Ölproduktion dort Jahr für Jahr zurück. Von einer Erschließung des umstrittenen Nationalparks
ANWR (Alaska National Wildlife Refugee) erwartet er überhaupt keine Entspannung der
Ölsituation, da die möglichen Reserven zu gering und die Vorlaufzeiten für die Erschließung
viel zu lang sind.

Neben einigen weiteren Detailanalysen zur Europäischen Ölversorgung gab es auch einige
Vorträge über künftige Alternativen. Das Energiekrise.de - Team war hier auch mit einem
Vortrag von Werner Zittel (L-B-Systemtechnik gmbH) vertreten. Er analysierte die Entwicklung
der Erneuerbaren Energien in den vergangenen zehn Jahren in Europa und zeigte mit
Trendfortschreibung der bestehenden Wachstumsraten, dass das Ziel der EU-Kommission, bis
2010 den Beitrag der Erneuerbaren gegenüber 2000 zu verdoppeln, ohne weiteres erreichbar
sein wird.

Darüber hinaus lassen die Erfolge der Länder mit den jeweils besten Ergebnissen den Schluß
zu, dass in der EU bis 2020 der Anteil der Erneuerbaren an der Stromversorgung auf
mindestens 50 % steigerbar sein sollte. Wenn man bedenkt, dass die Unterstützung für
Erneuerbare Energietechniken in den wenigen Staaten, die hier offensive Programme haben
(wie Deutschland mit dem Energieeinspeisegesetz und dem 350 MW Programm für PV - sog.
100.000 Dächer Programm -, das jetzt auf 1000 MW aufgestockt wurde), Technologien wie
Wind und PV für den Investor nur knapp über die Schwelle der Wirtschaftlichkeit hebt, so ist
sehr gut vorstellbar, dass bei einer Änderung der Rahmenbedingungen (sowohl wegen der
Klima- als auch wegen der Ressourcensituation) auch ein ökonomischer Druck entsteht, der
zu deutlich höheren Wachstumsraten als in der Vergangenheit führen kann. Dies würde es
allen Ländern der EU ermöglichen, die bisherigen "best practice" Werte zu erreichen und
wahrscheinlich zu übertreffen.

Im Verkehrsbereich ist die Ölabhängigkeit heute dominierend und es ist der einzige Bereich,
der bis heute fast ungebrochen wächst. Eine Störung der (billigen) Ölversorgung wird hier
Ausirkungen auf alle anderen Wirtschaftsbereiche haben. Der Vortrag gibt einen Überblick über
die Potenziale für Kraftstoffe aus Erneuerbaren Energien, geht jedoch auf die Probleme einer
Umstellung und die damit verbundenen Umstellungszeiten und Kosten nicht näher ein.

Pierre Bauquis vom französischen Petroleum Institute (IFP) analysierte die Entwicklung des
weltweiten Energieverbrauchs bis zum Jahr 2050. Demnach werden sich wegen der
Systemträgheiten nur sehr zögerlich die Anteile der einzelnen Energieträger verschieben. Im
Unterschied den meisten anderen Vorträgen liegt dieser Betrachtung allerdings die Annahme
zugrunde, dass die Ölverfügbarkeit über das Jahr 2010 hinaus noch deutlich steigen wird und
es keinen ökonomischen oder ökologischen Druck für eine Umstellung der Energieerzeugung
geben wird.


____________________________________________________________

Auf ein Neues ! Preisschock bei Oel / Gas im Winter 2002/2003
erwartet !

[Jens T]

am 11. september hast du noch versprochen "ENDE des Threads"

schon vergessen?

[M_B_S]

Die Oelkrise kommt so oder so mit und ohne Krieg !

[M_B_S]

ROLL OVER !

[M_B_S]

Mein Gott die US Bestandszahlen sind unter 2000 Niviau gesunken und der Winter in Europa / USA kündigt sich an !

Dazu der Krieg im Irak, der alles andere als ein Spaziergang werden wird ........

Die Aktienkurse werden geschlachtet werden

[M_B_S]

ODJ Venezuela Crisis Set To Boost World Oil Prices Further


Dec 16, 2002 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- (Repeating story)

By Fred Pals

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Venezuela`s President Hugo Chavez is currently of more
concern to the world`s oil markets than Saddam Hussein.

On the back of a nationwide strike that has crippled oil operations at the
country`s state-owned oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela (E.PVZ), or PdVSA, over
the past two weeks, global oil prices are expected to be led by further gains in
U.S. crude and product prices as Chavez shows no signs of buckling under
pressure to resign or call immediate elections.

The January Brent contract on London`s International Petroleum Exchange broke
through $28 a barrel at 1424 GMT, up 98 cents on the day to an eight-week high
of $28.19, led by Venezuela`s worsening crisis, brokers said.

Venezuela`s oil production has thinned to a trickle against just under 3 million
barrels a day before the strike began. Exports have all but stopped. Only one
small refinery is producing, but at a meager 80,000 barrels a day and mainly for
domestic consumption.

Venezuela is one of the main suppliers of crude oil and refined products to the
U.S. and the third-biggest producer within the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries, behind Saudi Arabia and Iran.

"It does look pretty awful. We expect the impact on the world oil markets to be
quite substantial as it does look like it will continue for a while," said Kevin
Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London.

Norrish expects the weekly American Petroleum Institute report Tuesday to show
the impact of the Venezuelan strike, with a draw in inventories of products in
the U.S. "We have already lost around 15 million b/d of Venezuelan production
(in the last two weeks) and the country is also a huge exporter of products to
the U.S." Norrish said.

Opposition leaders began action Dec. 2 to force Chavez to resign or call
elections immediately. PdVSA management joined in and have said they will
continue their strike efforts until Chavez resigns. But Chavez made clear over
the weekend that he too won`t back off and is ready to continue the battle. "I`m
not going because of pressure by a group of managers, coupsters, fascists,
businessmen and media. They`re wrong if they think so," he said during his
weekly televised program "Hello President."

The U.S. meanwhile has stepped up pressure on Chavez and urged him to call for
early elections.

Possible Chavez Ouster Could Ease World Oil Prices

Chavez maintains he can import gasoline and get output back on track with
foreign help and new employees, but analysts don`t see how he can kickstart
PdVSA operations from scratch. "These efforts don`t present a short-term
solution," Norrish said.

That its fellow OPEC members said in Vienna last week that they would assist
Venezuela and provide its customers with crude and products won`t help much
either in the short-term, analysts added.

OPEC`s loosely worded commitment is based on self interest, some say: "If Chavez
is replaced by someone of the opposition, then we could see a major change in
Venezuela`s oil policy. We could expect quota-busting like in the pre-Chavez
days, tension with Saudi Arabia or even a departure from OPEC," said Frederic
Lassere, head of commodities research at Societe Generale in Paris.

Indeed, during Chavez`s temporary ouster in April this year - on the back of
street violence and a nationwide strike that hampered oil operations - top PdVSA
officials made clear they would ramp up oil production and ignore OPEC`s quotas.

A recent document published by the business and union leaders currently staging
the protests urges Venezuelan interests ahead of OPEC. The document didn`t say
Venezuela should quit OPEC, but did say everything should be done to attract
foreign private investment in an effort to boost output and grab market share,
especially in the U.S.

However, any effort to jack up production would be limited by the country`s
potential output capacity that before the strike was seen at just over 3 million
b/d. The massive impact on operations by the current strike is likely to hamper
efforts to drive output beyond 3 million b/d for some time. A PdVSA official
said maximum production could be reached within two weeks, although if foreign
workers are used it could take more than a month.

In the medium- and long-term, an ouster of Chavez combined with a quick U.S
victory in a possible war with Iraq could cause oil prices to crash, some
analysts say. OPEC last week said it would cut output in January by up to 1.7
million b/d and agreed to lift by 1.3 million b/d its output target, to 23
million b/d.

Meanwhile, Chavez and PdVSA President Ali Rodriguez have their own day-to-day
worries. On Sunday, Chavez said two tankers with gasoline are en route from the
St. Croix`s Hovensa refinery, on the Virgin Islands, to Venezuela while the
military began reestablishing domestic fuel transport by forcing the striking
crew of a tanker to surrender the ship to a replacement crew, apparently brought
in from outside the country.

Chavez added that four tankers had recently sailed with 2 million barrels of oil
but sources close to PdVSA said only half that volume was shipped.

A Greek supertanker is currently being loaded with 1.01 million barrels, a
government official told Chavez during a telephone call to the TV show Sunday.
But only about half that could be confirmed. No information was immediately
available about destinations.

-By Fred Pals, Dow Jones Newswires; 0031-20-6201212; fred.pals.dowjones.com




(C) Copyright 2002 ODJ



Irak fällt im Januar aus !

[M_B_S]

31,97 $ das Barrel ! Winter 2002/2003 !!!!

[M_B_S]

Ja, so sei es !

[M_B_S]

Interessant wäre ja einmal ob die Kurve der Oelvörderung einer Normalverteilung gleicht ?

Bzw. ob die Funde binominal und Normalverteilt sind !

Mit den bisherigen Werten sollte man das mal überprüfen .

Wenn dem nämlich so ist , dann hätte Hubbert sagen wir mal auf dem 5% Niveau recht

Aber wehe wenn sie linksschief ist , was nahe liegt , da man ja meist dort sucht, wo es am Wahrscheinlichsten Oel gibt !

[M_B_S]

Aha wer suchet der findet

http://www.energiewirtschaft.tu-berlin.de/veranstaltung/file…

http://www.hermann-scheer.de/pdf/lbst.pdf

LBS wurde in diesem Zusammenhang schon erwähnt !

[M_B_S]

34 $ Ny crude

Reuters
Oil stocks down sharply before Venezuela strike-IEA
Friday January 17, 4:01 am ET


LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Oil industry stocks in OECD countries fell by 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, dragging storage down to 2.540 billion barrels, 107 million lower than a year ago, the West`s energy watchdog said on Friday.
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that crude stocks fell by 27 million barrels in November even before the Venezuelan strike began at the start of December.

[M_B_S]

33 $

[1000kV]

..und warum fallen die Kurse der Ölkonzerne
in den letzten Tagen und Wochen so extrem???
Kann mir einer das erklären?
Danke!

[M_B_S]

Oel jetzt über 36 $ NY light crude !!

Sehe die 40 $ schon nächste Woche !


Im Norden der USA/ Kanada Kältewelle -20 Grad !

Irak Krieg ( Saddam sprengt seine Oelfelder in die Luft )
Venezuela braucht 2 Jahre um Produktion wieder auf altes Niveau anzuheben
Nordsee und US Felder mit Rekord Produktionsrückgang
Saudi Arabien Russland pumpt 110 %
US Raffenerien laufen trocken !
Massive Benzinkäufe der US Boys in Rotterdamm treiben die Benzinpreise in nie gekannte Höhen !

[M_B_S]

The EIA also reported a one-million-barrel fall in crude stocks to 272 million barrels, leaving inventories at their lowest since 1975, just above the 270-million mark considered a minimum to keep U.S. refineries in operation