Da scheint ja jemand verdammt short zu sein? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Sovereign]

Was soll denn von diesem "Experten" halten? Sind die japanischen trading Häuser denn so short in Gold?

Gold Seen Hitting 23-YearLow Of $210/Oz Mitsui
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Pressured by thinning trade and the prospect of a rise in producer hedging and official sector sales, the price of gold will fall sharply this year, said a report by trade house Mitsui (MITSY).
In his precious metals forecast for this year, analyst Andy Smith said the outlook for gold is bleak, with a low of $210 a troy ounce possible. Even a weakening dollar and the threat of a looming global economic slowdown won`t be enough to prevent gold from dropping below the 20-year lows of around $252/oz plumbed in 1999.
Gold last traded as low as $210/oz at the end of 1978. In a gloomy outline of the market`s prospects this year, Smith said mining companies and central banks - the largest holders of underground and aboveground gold reserves, respectively - will be tempted to start selling ahead of further weakness.
For miners, this means selling production forward, a likely consequence of industry consolidation as hedging reduces the overall costs of acquisition, Smith said. For the official sector, it will mean selling gold, then investing the receipts in more attractive financial assets.
With the proliferation of asset classes in recent years, gold is losing its allure. Even traditional gold buyers such as Indian consumers will start looking to invest elsewhere, such as bank deposits, Smith said.
Demand looks weak, and gold is unlikely to be seen as a store of value in a global economic slowdown, he said.
Gold is currently trading at $268/oz, and last traded above $290/oz, Smith`s most bullish forecast, at the end of June 2000.
2001 forecasts in dollars/oz:
Low Avg High
Gold 210 250 290
Silver 3.50 4.25 5.25
Platinum 500 600 700
Palladium 550 750 1,000

[Goldhotline]

Eigentlich sagt Smith nichts anderes, als daß er daran glaubt, daß die Manipualtion des Goldpreises durch Federal Reserve, US-Finanzministerium, BIZ und große Investmentbanken weiterhin erfolgreich sein wird.

Beachtenswert ist die Marke von 290 $/oz, die er als Hoch sieht. Genau bei dieser Marke kündigte die BoE am 7. Mai 1999 ihre Goldauktionen an und verhinderte damit einen weiteren Goldpreisanstieg.

Was im übrigen von Smith zu halten ist, zeigt seine Prognose für Palladium. Sein Höchstkurs von 1.000 $/oz wurde mit 1.080 $/oz bereits überschritten.

Wir unterstellen, daß Smith mit seiner "Prognose" nur Material für die Verbreitung negativer Schlagzeilen für die Nachrichtenagenturen bereitstellen will.

Die Goldhotline

[Dottore Lupo]

Sollte man unter der Rubrik "breitgetretener Quark " abspeichern.

Fällt Gold auf ein solches Tief ,sind die meisten Minen pleite.

Homestake produziert dann unter Chapter 11 weiter.

Aber wir sind dann auch plattgemacht.

cu Dottore Lupo

[Sovereign]

Dann wäre mein Investment in Ashanti doch nicht so verkehrt...Bei einem Goldpreis von 210 $/Oz. hätte das hedge book über 9 Mio. Oz rundgerechnet einen POSITIVEN Wert von 150 $/Oz. also 1,35 Milliarden $. Nach Abzug aller Verbindlichkeiten bleibt für die Aktionäre immer noch 1 Mrd. $ übrig, was das vierfache der aktuellen Börsenbewertung ist. Die Minen werden einfach stillgelegt und bleiben als weiteres Asset für bessere Zeiten.

Hey, dieser Mr. Smith gefällt mir! ;-)

Gruß

Sovereign

[SOM.you.]

RE: Sovereign

....man kann sich auch reich rechnen.

Insgesamt wäre mir eine nachhaltige Belebung des Goldpreises lieber.



SOM

[GOLDONLY]

Andy Smith ... oder Andy Reitmeier ??

Beides Blindgänger.

Übrigens: Ins Bodenlose kann Gold schlecht fallen, weil
irgendwann selbst die Minen anfangen, Gold zu kaufen.

Leider kauft die Masse nur Gewinner.
Am Liebsten auf Höchstkurs. Es wird also noch ein
Bißchen dauern.

Ansonsten ... Scheißtag. Steht wieder eine Auktion in
London an ??

GO

[howling wolf]

@Goldonly - Recht hast Du - Scheisstag !!!!

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html
Die mittel- und langfristigen Leaserates steigen, der Dollar fällt und
was macht Gold ? ja was wohl es kackt weiter ab... es ist zum Ko tz en.

[Sovereign]

Und noch mehr negative Stimmen zum Gold: Wen wundert`s eigentlich noch?
Getreu dem Grundsatz des antizyklischen Handelns müßte die Wende zum Besseren unmittelbar bevorstehen.

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices probably will languish near 20-year lows in 2001 as central banks shed bullion and jewelry demand remains weak, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services, a consulting company. Prices will average about $274 an ounce, trading between $260 and $290, after averaging $279.16 last year, the London-based company said. Today, gold for February delivery fell $2.90, or 1.1 percent, to $265.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
While a drop in the dollar has made gold cheaper since November for buyers using other currencies, some gold investors have switched to stocks and bonds in search of better returns. Central banks also sold some of their gold and lent it to speculators, increasing available supplies. ``There`s no sign that either the weaker dollar or crashing stock markets have prompted any move into gold by investors,`` said GFMS Managing Director Philip Klapwijk in a faxed news release.
Even though the euro has risen 7.6 percent against the dollar since the beginning of December, gold prices in New York have declined more than 2 percent in the same period. Prices are down by more than a third since 1996, and reached a 20-year low of $253.20 an ounce in July 1999. Central banks sold about 491 metric tons of gold last year, a 17 percent increase from 1999, GFMS said. There`s ``little chance`` of a reduction in official sales this year, it said. Central banks offset a drop in supply from producers, who cut back on sales of metal they had yet to mine, which allows them to lock in prices and protect against declines. Such hedging activities probably will pick up this year, GFMS said. Supplies from central bank vaults comes on top of newly mined metal. Global production was little changed at 2,568 tons last year, compared with 2,570 tons in 1999. Mine output is expected to rise ``slightly`` in the first half of this year, the company said. Other reasons for the lackluster gold price include ``the weakness of fabrication demand,`` the company said. World fabrication demand fell 0.1 percent last year to 3,743 tons, as demand for gold jewelry fell both in India, the world`s biggest buyer, and in Italy, Europe`s largest. Investors in the U.S. and Europe sold as much as 100 tons of gold bars and coins. ``Spending priorities of consumers have shifted,`` Klapwijk said during an interview in Toronto. ``Gold jewelry simply isn`t what it used to be. Consumers found other things to spend money on.``

[fischli]

wer wird denn gleich die Nerven verlieren und mit den Woelfen heulen wollen -
oder soll ich Dich etwa als Kontra Indikator betrachten ...
gruss
fischli

[gholzbauer]

Sovereign,
die Ashanti-Milliarde würde Ghana vermutlich nicht verlassen. Die dortige Regierung hat bereits gezeigt, was sie von shareholder rights hält, nämlich null.

[gloom]

Der Prinz der Dunkelheit (A.Smith) ist in Bill Murphy`s Kommen-
taren kein Unbekannter:



The Prince of Darkness has spoken. The latest from gold bear guru and
Gold Cartel apologist, Mitsui`s Andy Smith:

January 9 -DJ 2001 Gold Seen Hitting 23-Year Low Of $210/Oz - Mitsui

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Pressured by thinning trade and the prospect
of a rise in producer hedging and official sector sales, the price of gold
will fall sharply this year, said a report by trade house Mitsui (MITSY).

In his precious metals forecast for this year, analyst Andy Smith said
the outlook for gold is bleak, with a low of $210 a troy ounce possible.
Even a weakening dollar and the threat of a looming global economic
slowdown won`t be enough to prevent gold from dropping below the
20-year lows of around $252/oz plumbed in 1999.

Gold last traded as low as $210/oz at the end of 1978.

In a gloomy outline of the market`s prospects this year, Smith said
mining companies and central banks - the largest holders of
underground and aboveground gold reserves, respectively - will be
tempted to start selling ahead of further weakness.

For miners, this means selling production forward, a likely
consequence of industry consolidation as hedging reduces the overall
costs of acquisition, Smith said. For the official sector, it will mean
selling gold, then investing the receipts in more attractive financial
assets.

With the proliferation of asset classes in recent years, gold is losing its
allure. Even traditional gold buyers such as Indian consumers will start
looking to invest elsewhere, such as bank deposits, Smith said.

Demand looks weak, and gold is unlikely to be seen as a store of value
in a global economic slowdown, he said. END.

There are many in the GATA camp that think the Gold Cartel
represents a bigger global type group that wants to eventually control
most of the gold market by driving many of the big players out of
business and scooping up the premier gold properties at fire sale
prices.

$210 gold would certainly take the globalists a long way towards that
goal. The unhedged Newmont Minings and Homestakes of the world
would be hard pressed to survive in that environment. Many of the
exploration companies will go out of business.

I don`t believe that is what we are looking at, but I do believe that
unless the Gold Cartel is defeated by the GATA camp or overpowered
by outside market forces, that the recent hard times experienced by
gold companies and gold/ goldshare investors will continue.

My guess is that a falling dollar, a reeling Nasdaq, and further credit
market deterioration will eventually do them in. But, why leave that to
chance? The evidence of gold price manipulation and gold price-fixing
by the Gold Cabal is overwhelming as presented in the Howe/GATA
Complaint and GATA`s "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" document.
The pre-trial discovery process will reveal this evidence in a legal
forum and and make it apparent to the world what they have done.
That is why it is so important to get the Cabal in court. All we have to
do is expose the truth and they are kaputzki.

Teilweise Wiederholung von Sovereigns Posting; aber ich habe
es als Ganzes reinkopiert.

Gruß
gloom

[aneises2]

Hallo zusammen,

die Goldshorter schrecken vor nichts zurück,bitte unbedingt lesen!!!!

Gruß
aneises2


From: GATA Committee <GATAComm@a...>
Date: Fri Jan 12, 2001 4:09am
Subject: Is gold cabal wrecking South Africa`s currency?


10:30p EDT Thursday, January 11, 2001

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

With his "Midas" commentary tonight at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com, GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy has information of special interest to South
Africa. It is copied below.

A few weeks ago Murphy showed how an attack on the Australian dollar
seemed to be related to the gold cabal`s need to induce Australian
gold producers to sell more gold. Tonight Murphy examined an attack
on the South African rand that seems inexplicable except for a
similar result: pressure on South African gold producers to sell more.

Of course there isn`t proof here yet. But this should be of urgent
interest to South Africa`s government as well as to gold mining
companies in that country on the eve of the visit of the GATA
delegation.

If indeed the gold cabal is so desperate to protect its short
positions that it is prepared to strangle a whole country by
destroying its currency -- and not just any country, but the
struggling multi-racial democracy that liberated itself peacefully
and has become the hope of Africa -- then an undeclared war is
being waged.

We do think that this is what is happening, and that South Africa
must rise up to defend itself as well as the gold cause. GATA and our
lawsuit offer a way of doing it. And imagine the pressure that could
be turned against the gold cabal if a South African delegation of
government officials, mining company executives, and mining union
representatives came back to Washington with GATA to ask some urgent
questions of the new president, new treasury secretary, and the
Exchange Stablization Fund.

We ask our South African friends to raise with their elected
representatives and their news media the issue of the attack on the
rand and its possible connection to gold.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

"Midas" commentary: The Rand? This Is No Small Matter

By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
January 11, 2001

There is nothing but selling as gold approaches the U.S. trading
hours. It is always the same. Once gold is sold off, it rarely
rallies either, and if it does, those rallies do not hold.

The selling by the gold cartel is once again attracting speculators
who are jumping on board. The open interest went up 6,187 contracts
yesterday on the steep gold selloff and now stands at 132,314
contracts.

The world is back to being gold bearish to the hilt as the bullish
consensus dropped down to 17 percent this morning. It`s probably
even lower now.

It meant little that the dollar was knocked down against most
currencies except the yen. The euro surged after some healthy German
economic statistics and is closing in on 96 against the dollar once
more.

Silver just continues to meander.

From www.businessreport.co.za in South Africa:

"Rand will ride out 22-cent fall, says Reserve Bank.

"Johannesburg -- The Reserve Bank believed the currency weakness in
the rand was overdone and expected the currency to recover over time,
Bertus van Zyt, the bank`s head of international banking, said
yesterday.

"The rand closed at a new low of R7.90 against the dollar.

"Analysts, most of whom were expecting the currency to start the year
on a strong ooting, were baffled and could only point to rumours in
the market.

"Analysts did not detect any general emerging market currency
weakness and that, together with the relative strength of the euro
and other currencies like the Australian dollar, indicated that there
was something peculiar to South Africa about the rand`s latest fall.

"Speculation that the partial listing of Telkom could be delayed, or
that a South African company was buying pounds for a UK acquisition,
was cited as initial trigger for the selloff. Speculation about
possible exchange control relaxation in the budget next month was
also mentioned as a possible reason for the fall.

"Analysts said there was no reason to believe that any of the rumours
were credible, which made it even harder to explain the fall in the
currency.

"The rand`s weakness overshadowed a strong performance by South
African equities."

In just the last five trading days, the rand sank lower from 7.5 to 8
to the dollar, before firming up a tad.

From the Sydney Sunday Times:

"Another highly-regarded South African-based economist, who declined
to be named, said he believed the rand`s fall could be the result of
a speculative attack `because lots of the trading against it` was by
known speculators.

"`I just wonder what is making them do it now, and not last week or
next week?` he added, saying that there was no fundamental reason for
the rand`s demise."

Until late last year Midas surmised that much of the weakness in the
Aussie dollar was a raid by the gold cartel on the Aussie dollar to
build incentives for the Aussie gold producers to sell forward as the
gold price rose in Aussie dollar terms in regard to gold priced in
U.S. dollars.

That was the case until the gold cabal miscalculated and overdid it.
Most of the Aussies had reached their limit regarding forward sales,
and the high Aussie dollar gold price egan to cause concern among the
credit community that some of their hedge books were going under
water. I wrote much on that developing danger before that scenario
was flashed around by the press. It was not long after that Moody`s
began to downgrade some of the Aussie producers` credit risk ratings.

Realizing they had gone too far and fearing Australian producer
buybacks as certain hedge book positions deteriorated, the gold
cartel backed off and possibly reversed course, as the Aussie dollar
has risen sharply, defying many predictions.

The gold cabal needs gold to be borrowed and sold into the physical
market to maintain their crooked scheme. They are so desperate that
they have called on the likes of such poor countries as Jordan,
Uruguay, Sri Lanka, Chile, and Bangladesh to do their bidding.

Based on the above South African Business Report article, it appears
that the desperadoes are now plunging the rand to induce South
African producers to hedge. While I have no proof of this, it fits
right into the cabal`s modus operandi that GATA has seen in recent
years.

It is the same old duck that we have come to know so well.

This story from Platt`s pulls this all altogether. Once again the
Hannibal Cannibal bullion bankers are doing their thing:

"Johannesburg, January 10 -- South Africa`s Harmony Gold said
Wednesday it does not foresee any problems in finalizing funding
arrangements for its Rand 1-bil ($126.58-mil) acquisition of the
Elandsrand and Deelkraal gold mines from AngloGold. The market here
has been buzzing with rumors that funding had become a problem.
However, Harmony`s CEO Bernard Swanepoel said that negotiations are
progressing well.

"He did confirm, however, that Harmony is in discussions with the
banks about protecting the lenders. This means that Harmony might
have to buy put options on gold to serve as a cushion if prices fall
below a certain level. But this strategy could lead to some financial
losses if there is a rebound in gold prices. Harmony is one of the
few South African gold companies that chooses to remain unhedged."

It makes no sense that only a couple of months ago the economic
pundits were very bearish on the Aussie dollar and bullish on the
rand. Out of nowhere, and conveniently for the gold cartel, the
Aussie dollar rallied 10 percent off its lows (taking pressure of
some Aussie gold producers), while the South African rand is making
new lows against the dollar (even as many other currencies are
rallying against the dollar).

Then again, it makes perfect sense if one understands that there is a
gold cartel with an agenda and that they are still at it, using any
means possible to trash gold and keep their scheme going. The
alternative is to perch on a financial precipice of their own making.

The irony is that no matter what kind of short-term maneuvers they
come up with, they are still headed for that precipice....

The GATA delegation`s trip to South Africa looks better by the
day.

Rhoda Fowler, our South African press agent, is making things happen.
So much is going in the right direction that I now am going to leave
earlier than planned, two weeks from Saturday. That will give me
close to a week in Johannesburg and nearly a week in Cape Town,
where I will link up with Reg Howe.

The cholera problem is worsening dramatically in that part of the
world. Today 2,500 cases were reported in South African`s neighbor,
Mozambique.