Charttechnik: Kaufsignal Dell - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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hinweis
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/1478036.html
Let`s use Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - commentary) to calculate an average growth rate. On a split-adjusted basis, Dell made 2 cents a share in 1991 and 84 cents in 2000. Dividing 84 by 2 equals 42. In a spreadsheet, the formula =((42)^(1/9))-1 can then be used to calculate the average 10-year growth rate. (Remember to use 1/9 instead of 1/10 for a 10-year period, as the number of actual year-on-year changes in a given time span is one less than the number of years.)
For Dell, this formula yields a 51% growth rate. Now, as we know, the `90s were an extraordinary era for tech firms and there`s little chance that Dell will be able to post 50% over the next 10 years.
Here`s where industry knowledge comes in. There`s a remote possibility that Dell could ratchet up 25% growth if it gobbles up one of its big competitors, succeeds in its push into the low-end server market and the economy grows like a weed for 10 years. But 25% would be a monumental achievement for a company in a maturing industry, given that the mighty GE (GE:NYSE - news - commentary) has increased earnings annually by 13% since 1985.
So, let`s opt for a 15% rate for Dell in this example -- and move on to step two. Next we apply that 15% to work out Dell`s earnings in 2010. The formula here is =(72)*(1.15)^9, which shows Dell making $2.53 in 2010 (its 2011 fiscal year).
For step three we decide what investors might pay for those earnings 10 years from now. One way to do that is to take the average price-to-earnings ratio of the past 10 years, which can be calculated from average annual P/Es published by Value Line. For Dell, this is 27 times. It`s probably wise to bring that down to, say, 22 times if earnings are going to slow. As a result, Dell`s stock in 2010 could trade at $56, compared with $27.50 Friday.
Here`s where the 15% rule comes in. If an investor buys Dell at $27.50 and holds it till it reaches the putative $56 in 2010, would he or she make 15% a year in stock price appreciation? Nope. Applying the first formula used above gives an annual return of only 8%, just over half the required 15% return.
So what to do? If you believe the earnings projections are sound, and not overly conservative, you have only one choice: to wait until Dell stock falls to a price where it`d give a 15% annual return over 10 years. That`d be $16, a long way down.
Alternatively, you can double-check the earnings growth and see where you should buy if Dell returned 20% a year and held on to its average P/E of 27. That would give a target price of exactly $100, or 27 times year-10 earnings of $3.72. From Friday`s $27.50, that would yield annual appreciation of 15.4%.
Of course, investors pay more for predictability. Assume that Dell`s earnings go up steadily by 20% a year. Investors would be willing to pay as much as 35 times those earnings. In that case, Dell could be trading at $130, giving an annual return of 19%, well in excess of Buffett`s magic 15%.
Now, there are some flaws in this model. One of the biggest is that the results depend to a great degree on what the starting year earnings are.
However, it`s versatile and can easily be tweaked according to one`s feelings on P/Es and growth.
Oh yes, it also shows how little value there is in tech even with the Nazz down so much. Let the bearishness continue!
------------------------------
15 % Wachstum auf 10 Jahre ist m.E. für ein "reifes" Unternehmen wie DELL schon recht ehrgeizig.
Vielleicht auch mal einen Blick auf die Insider-Verkäufe werfen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/d/dell.html
ein kleiner Auschnitt:
15-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer * 2,000,000
DELL Other Disposition
15-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 2,000,000
DELL Acquired
11-Jun-01 PARRA, ROSENDO G
Divisional Officer, Senior Vice President, US Public 118,220
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,903,010.
11-Jun-01 TOPFER, MORTON L
Director, Counselor to the Chief Executive Officer 224,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $5,600,000.
8-Jun-01 GREEN, THOMAS B
Senior Vice President, Law, Administration, Secretary 100,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,600,150.
7-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 3,000,000
DELL Sold at $25.15 -- $25.62/Share.
Proceeds of $76,100,000.
7-Jun-01 LAMBERT, MICHAEL D
Senior Vice President, Enterprise Systems Group 100,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,570,000.
6-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 7,000,000
DELL Sold at $25.19 -- $25.95/Share.
Proceeds of $178,835,000.
6-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 10,000,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $255,798,000.
WOW: $255,798,000
Da würde ich sofort mit dem Arbeiten aufhören.
Aber mein Geld ist mir zu schade um CEO`s Rolex-Uhren oder Ferraris oder Paläste an Californias Gestaden zu finanzieren.
grüsse Andy
p.s. ist ziemlich ruhig geworden im EX-SAC board. Nachdem sich die Schwergewichte scheinbar verabschiedet haben, zieht sich Leichtgewicht Andy für unbestimmte Zeit zurück.
Let`s use Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - commentary) to calculate an average growth rate. On a split-adjusted basis, Dell made 2 cents a share in 1991 and 84 cents in 2000. Dividing 84 by 2 equals 42. In a spreadsheet, the formula =((42)^(1/9))-1 can then be used to calculate the average 10-year growth rate. (Remember to use 1/9 instead of 1/10 for a 10-year period, as the number of actual year-on-year changes in a given time span is one less than the number of years.)
For Dell, this formula yields a 51% growth rate. Now, as we know, the `90s were an extraordinary era for tech firms and there`s little chance that Dell will be able to post 50% over the next 10 years.
Here`s where industry knowledge comes in. There`s a remote possibility that Dell could ratchet up 25% growth if it gobbles up one of its big competitors, succeeds in its push into the low-end server market and the economy grows like a weed for 10 years. But 25% would be a monumental achievement for a company in a maturing industry, given that the mighty GE (GE:NYSE - news - commentary) has increased earnings annually by 13% since 1985.
So, let`s opt for a 15% rate for Dell in this example -- and move on to step two. Next we apply that 15% to work out Dell`s earnings in 2010. The formula here is =(72)*(1.15)^9, which shows Dell making $2.53 in 2010 (its 2011 fiscal year).
For step three we decide what investors might pay for those earnings 10 years from now. One way to do that is to take the average price-to-earnings ratio of the past 10 years, which can be calculated from average annual P/Es published by Value Line. For Dell, this is 27 times. It`s probably wise to bring that down to, say, 22 times if earnings are going to slow. As a result, Dell`s stock in 2010 could trade at $56, compared with $27.50 Friday.
Here`s where the 15% rule comes in. If an investor buys Dell at $27.50 and holds it till it reaches the putative $56 in 2010, would he or she make 15% a year in stock price appreciation? Nope. Applying the first formula used above gives an annual return of only 8%, just over half the required 15% return.
So what to do? If you believe the earnings projections are sound, and not overly conservative, you have only one choice: to wait until Dell stock falls to a price where it`d give a 15% annual return over 10 years. That`d be $16, a long way down.
Alternatively, you can double-check the earnings growth and see where you should buy if Dell returned 20% a year and held on to its average P/E of 27. That would give a target price of exactly $100, or 27 times year-10 earnings of $3.72. From Friday`s $27.50, that would yield annual appreciation of 15.4%.
Of course, investors pay more for predictability. Assume that Dell`s earnings go up steadily by 20% a year. Investors would be willing to pay as much as 35 times those earnings. In that case, Dell could be trading at $130, giving an annual return of 19%, well in excess of Buffett`s magic 15%.
Now, there are some flaws in this model. One of the biggest is that the results depend to a great degree on what the starting year earnings are.
However, it`s versatile and can easily be tweaked according to one`s feelings on P/Es and growth.
Oh yes, it also shows how little value there is in tech even with the Nazz down so much. Let the bearishness continue!
------------------------------
15 % Wachstum auf 10 Jahre ist m.E. für ein "reifes" Unternehmen wie DELL schon recht ehrgeizig.
Vielleicht auch mal einen Blick auf die Insider-Verkäufe werfen.
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/d/dell.html
ein kleiner Auschnitt:
15-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer * 2,000,000
DELL Other Disposition
15-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 2,000,000
DELL Acquired
11-Jun-01 PARRA, ROSENDO G
Divisional Officer, Senior Vice President, US Public 118,220
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,903,010.
11-Jun-01 TOPFER, MORTON L
Director, Counselor to the Chief Executive Officer 224,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $5,600,000.
8-Jun-01 GREEN, THOMAS B
Senior Vice President, Law, Administration, Secretary 100,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,600,150.
7-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 3,000,000
DELL Sold at $25.15 -- $25.62/Share.
Proceeds of $76,100,000.
7-Jun-01 LAMBERT, MICHAEL D
Senior Vice President, Enterprise Systems Group 100,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $2,570,000.
6-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 7,000,000
DELL Sold at $25.19 -- $25.95/Share.
Proceeds of $178,835,000.
6-Jun-01 DELL, MICHAEL S
Chairman of the Board, Director, Chief Executive Officer 10,000,000
DELL Proposed Sale (Form 144).
Estimated proceeds of $255,798,000.
WOW: $255,798,000
Da würde ich sofort mit dem Arbeiten aufhören.
Aber mein Geld ist mir zu schade um CEO`s Rolex-Uhren oder Ferraris oder Paläste an Californias Gestaden zu finanzieren.
grüsse Andy
p.s. ist ziemlich ruhig geworden im EX-SAC board. Nachdem sich die Schwergewichte scheinbar verabschiedet haben, zieht sich Leichtgewicht Andy für unbestimmte Zeit zurück.
@Andy!
Oje "unbestimmte Zeit" klingt ja echt übel!! Kann nur hoffen, dass Du Dich weiter am Board beteiligst...
Oje "unbestimmte Zeit" klingt ja echt übel!! Kann nur hoffen, dass Du Dich weiter am Board beteiligst...
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