Neue Info zur Zinsentscheidung der FED von Bloomberg - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Money-Master]

Habe gerade diese interessante Meldung auf der bloomberg-Website gefunden. Man geht also davon aus, daß es eine Senkung um 50 Basispunkte auf 5% geben wird. Ich persönlich erwarte aus ökonomischen Gründen eine Reduzierung um 75 Basispunkte. Es wäre fatal, in der jetzigen Situation nur um 50 Basispunkte zu reduzieren, da der Effekt sofort oder spätestens nach 1-2 Tagen wieder verpuffen würde. A.G. wäre dann in Zugzwang weitere Senkungen vorzunehmen. Mit einer drastischeren Reduzierung als erwartet, würde er klar eine Richtung vorgeben. Die Verunsicherung der Marktteilnehmer würde abnehmen.
Hier der Text von der Bloomber-Webseite.

03/18 09:42
Federal Reserve Seen Cutting Rates Again: U.S.
Economy Preview
By Vincent Del Giudice and Alex Tanzi

Washington, March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably cut its
benchmark interest rate by at least half a percentage point this week, a move
that will receive further support from new numbers on inflation, jobs and expected
growth, analysts said.

The central bank`s Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday amid signs
the slowdown in the economy has pushed manufacturing to the brink of
recession, stifled consumer confidence and hurried the pace of job cuts.

A majority of the 25 investment firms that trade government securities directly
with the Fed expect its policy makers to lower the overnight bank lending rate to
5 percent from 5.50 percent. Nine of the dealers foresee a cut to 4.75 percent.

``The Fed is coming to the aid of the economy,`` said Robert Dederick, an
economic consultant at the Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. ``They are trying to
keep the damage to a minimum. They`ll remain on that path until the job is done.``

Trading in futures contracts on the benchmark rate shows investors expect the
Fed to cut to at least 4.5 percent by June.

Economic indicators, including last Friday`s report showing industrial production
fell 0.6 percent in February, suggest the economy has slowed more than the Fed
counted on when it raised rates six times between June 1999 and May 2000. The
Fed lowered rates in January by a full percentage point.

The Conference Board`s index of U.S. leading economic indicators, intended to
project growth over six months, probably fell 0.2 percent in February after a 0.8
percent increase in January. The drop would be the ninth since February 2000.
The report comes out Thursday.

``The economy is headed toward zero growth in the second and third quarters,``
according to a forecast by economist Ed Hyman`s ISI Group in New York.

Employment and Inflation

Employment numbers also point to a rate cut. A Labor Department report
Thursday is likely to show that 370,000 people filed new claims for
unemployment benefits in the week ended March 17. That is close to this year`s
high of 375,000, reached earlier this month and repeated in the week ending
March 10.

Consumer prices probably rose 0.2 percent in February, less than the previous
month`s gain of 0.6 percent, analysts said. Core prices, which exclude food and
energy products, probably rose 0.2 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in
January. The Labor Department issues the consumer price index Wednesday.

``Inflation is not a problem,`` said Gerald Cohen, an economist at Merrill Lynch &
Co. in New York. If anything, figures on falling producer prices suggest
``deflationary pressures resulting from slower growth are starting to emerge,``
Cohen said.

In other reports:

-- The trade deficit in goods and service probably totaled $33 billion in January,
the same as December and just below September`s record $33.8 billion, analysts
said. Deficits began narrowing in October, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S.
economy. The Commerce Department will issue the report Tuesday.

-- The government is likely to report a budget deficit of $44 billion for February,
wider than $41.7 billion a year earlier, analysts said. February is normally a
deficit month. The Treasury is scheduled to release that report Tuesday. A
budget surplus for fiscal year 2001 is still in the cards, even as the economy
slows, analysts said.

Bloomberg Survey

Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior
3/20 2:00 Feb. Budget Statement $-44B $-41.7B
3/20 8:30 Jan. Trade Balance $-33B $-33B
3/21 8:30 Feb. Consumer Price Index 0.2% 0.6%
3/21 8:30 Feb. CPI Ex-food & energy 0.2% 0.3%
3/21 8:30 Feb. Real Earnings 0.0% 0.0%
3/22 8:30 3/17 Initial Jobless Claims 370K 375K
3/22 10:00 Feb. Leading Indicators -0.2% 0.8%

Federal Reserve, Treasury

Monday, March 19

Washington: U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill holds news conference on
2001 Annual Report of the Social Security and Medicare Trustees.

Tuesday, March 20

Washington: The Federal Reserve`s policy-setting Federal Open Market
Committee meets on interest rates.

Washington: U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill testifies at joint hearing of
Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee.

Washington: U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O`Neill addresses the U.S. Hispanic
Chamber of Commerce annual legislative forum.

Wednesday, March 21

New York: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan discusses news coverage
of the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve when he appears at former
Vice President Al Gore`s media seminar at the Columbia School of Journalism.

Thursday, March 22

Washington: The Federal Reserve releases minutes of the policy-making Open
Market Committee`s meeting Jan. 31.




©2001 Bloomberg L.P. All rights res

[Babis]

Hallo Money-Master
Es ist im momment nich sehr einfach für die FED die senkung um 0,50% ist in den kursen wohl schon drin eine senkung um 0,75% wäre wohl fatal für die märkte,wieso weill dann die phantasie für weitere zinssenkungen erst einmal draußen ist.

CU Babis

[revers]

seid wann ist es dann die aufgabe von ag durch zinssenkung noch immer arbenteuerliche kgv der nasdaq aktien zu stuetzen.fuer die us wirtschaft sind 0.50 genug.zumal das verbrauchervertrauen schon wieder anzieht.die kurse der aktien regelt der markt eh im laufe des jahres auch ohne zu grosse zinssenkungen...gruss aus den usa....sehe den nasdaq am jahresende bei ca 4000 punkten auch ohne senkung von 0.75

[nasdaq10.000]

Es ist immer wichtig, welchen A u s b l i c k Greenspan gibt (weitere Zinssenkungs-Phantasie).

Gruss