Godsell (AngloGold), Swanepoel (Harmony) u. Thompson (GoldFields) über Goldpreis! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[golden-bear]

30/03/2001 22:07 - (SA)

Gold’s big three give their views

John Handley

Three SA gold mining leaders were canvassed for their views on issues affecting the industry. Thanks to Bobby Godsell (BG)of AngloGold, Bernard Swanepoel (BS) of Harmony and Chris Thompson (CT) of Gold Fields for their input and co-operation.

1. The gold market remains in serious imbalance with production lagging consumption by about 1500t a year. How long do you think this condition can go on, assuming not all central bank holdings will be sold?
BG: The gap has been met for some years now through a combination of central bank selling (roughly 500t a year), hedging (roughly 500t a year) and the rest from “scrap”, essentially Asian repurchases.
BS: Bank sales could end with the Washington agreement, and producer hedging is ahead of production and will probably be cut back within a few years.
CT: After allowing all credits for scrap and hedging, the net imbalance might be 500t/year for the next three years.

2. Mine output appears to be almost peaking, and closures are likely to exceed start-ups in the foreseeable future. What’s your view of future world production?
CT: Production could “fall off the cliff” within five or seven years as many mines close.
BG: I see a gradual downward trend.
BS: I believe it will drop off, possibly faster than the consensus view.

3. The gold price has averaged around US$280/oz for two years, which represents a 20-year low. Some claim this price has been held down artificially. What do you think?
BS: Most Harmony shareholders hold a “conspiracy” theory, but I believe there are more players interested in sending the price down than up and sentiment is helping them.
CT: Some wild claims have been made; yet these could easily have been refuted if they were untrue. One must ask why the claims weren’t refuted?
BG: I have no compelling evidence to support price manipulation. Two recent academic studies suggested forward selling affects prices and can cap rises in the short term, but this plays only a small part in explaining the weak gold price over the past two decades. In particular, the Jessica Cross study predicts a decline in producer hedging in the future.

4. From 1972-1984, the percentage difference between the price lows and highs recorded annually was on average 61.4%. This fell to 21.2% between 1985 and 2000. The second period saw the start of hedging in the market. Do you think that reduced the volatility of the gold market?
BG: Derivatives markets often smooth volatility but many other factors contributed - the move off the gold standard, the oil price shock, high inflation rates in industrialised economies - to the higher volatility of the earlier period.
BS: Hedging reduced volatility by improving liquidity but was not the only cause.
CT: I believe large-scale hedging undoubtedly contributed to a lower, less volatile gold price.

5. Gold exploration seems more muted nowadays. Are you maintaining green fields exploration, do you prefer brown fields or is your ultimate choice to only add resources by acquisition?
CT: Exploration by juniors has all but dried up and even if you find something, you cannot start it at the current gold price. Acquisition is much cheaper than exploration.
BG: We are maintaining a level of green fields but most of our exploration spending is in brown fields.
BS: Harmony grew by acquisition but is maintaining a measure of green fields exploration through Kalgold.

6. The Witwatersrand deposits have provided the highest proportion of world gold production in the past and probably the most consistently profitable long-life mines. How do you rate Witwatersrand deposits against other world deposits in general?
BS: These are the best gold deposits by a mile, and other deposits have been confused by cash cost instead of total cost accounting.
CT: The Wits mines are getting old and deep, but the better mines with remaining ore have great flexibility and can still be highly profitable if mined selectively. There are no new shafts on the horizon.
BG: Aggregate Wits Basin production can only continue to decline. With this specific, high-grade and long-life ore bodies will continue to produce significant amounts of gold at competitive costs for decades to come.

7. Given that about a third of identified world gold resources is in the Witwatersrand system, what plans do you have to maintain or expand production in this area?
BG: We are renewing our production in the Wits basin, by sinking new shafts, deepening shafts and investing in new technologies and work practices that will enable us to mine gold at lower cost in the Wits basin. BS: There is room for expansion in projects like Poplar, Rolspruit and others but at a better gold price.
CT: The cardinal essential is to reduce costs and improve efficiencies. Doing this can maintain production. Old dumps and slimes dams offer attractive expansion possibilities.

8. Open-pit mines have much shorter lives than deep-level mines. Considering the swing towards more open-pit mining, what plans do you have for replacement with underground mines in the future?
CT: Most new open-pit mines would be attractive at only about $300-$350/oz. There could be as many as 15 of these.
BG: Large producers are well served with a diversity of ore body and mining technology producers - underground and open-pit.
BS: We regard open-pit mines as relatively short-term operations and retain underground expertise for long-term expansion.

9. Do you believe there’s a conspiracy to keep the gold price down?
BS: Not really - there are people who want to use a lower gold price for their own ends.
BG: No.
CT: No firm views.
10. What is your forecast high, low and average for the gold price during 2001.
CT: The global slowdown and a weaker dollar could contribute to a higher price. Gold is an insurance asset and never thrives in conditions of prosperity.
BG: I gave up forecasting some time ago. I am bullish about the medium-term prospects for the price as I believe new mine production will turn down, jewellery demand can at least be maintained and let’s hope, through the actions of wise producers, it can be expanded. However we’re essentially planning at current price levels.
BS: I think we’ve seen the low at around $255/oz. A spike could take us to $320/oz but we are planning on an average of about $270/oz.

11. A higher gold price would benefit many developing countries and about a million workers in related business worldwide as well as gold mining companies. Would you support the introduction of a base gold price, higher than the present spot price, above which gold could trade?
BG: The experience of countries that deviated from global prices is not good. Brazil and China have seen severe distortions. I am for a range of actions that can make the gold market globally healthy.
BS: The free market should prevail but interested parties, such as the African bloc, could lobby in their own interests, as happened in the past.
CT: This would be difficult to arrange politically as there are too many players and a fixed price proved unworkable in the past.

12. Which clauses of the Minerals Development Bill under consideration do you think would support mining in SA and which might impede it in future?
CT: Many aspects of the Bill involve positive change but some work is needed on automatically rolling over mining leases, evaluating (for compensation) prospected ground, introducing a right to appeal, and defining rights so that not too much is left to the Minister’s discretion.
BG: I am concerned about the security of tenure, compensation and inadequately spelt out “rules of the game” - that is, the criteria by which exploration, exploitation and retention licences will be granted or refused.
BS: The Bill opens up numerous avenues but will not encourage new overseas players. Too many discretionary powers are vested in the Minister and there should be a basis for appeal.

13. For years, gold and platinum traded at minor discounts to each other, which, given the amounts of the metals in the earth’s crust and grades of ore bodies, seemed economically reasonable. Platinum is now more than double the price of gold. Do you think this is sustainable? Will gold rise to platinum’s level or will platinum fall to the level of gold?
BS: It would be nice to see both metals at around $350/oz but markets are never perfect.
BG: It seems to me that these are distinct markets, each with its own dynamics.
CT: Long-term economics creates markets and production always expands to meet demand. Gold seems to be on a long-term low and platinum on a long-term high and the two will probably move closer to each other.

14. Do you collect gold in any form - coins, jewellery, objets d’art?
CT: My wife has the only collection, in the form of jewellery.
BG: I seek out interesting, rare and innovative gold jewellery around the world.
BS: Yes, I have bought my wife overpriced 18ct jewellery.

15. As a major gold producer, how do you view the industry in, say, 10 years’ time?
BS: There will be further consolidation and bigger players but I am optimistic for an industry that is already thousands of years old.
BG: The industry will be more consolidated, more global and will consist of companies that not only mine gold but which also design and develop and market gold products and see that they are delivered effectively and competitively to customers.
CT: The past five years have been hard but we have learnt to survive. In 10 years’ time, the banks might be out of the gold market equation and a more stable market, with supply and demand more in tune, should be in place.

Finance Week

[bestofme]

sehr interessant!

bin aber seit ein paar jahren der meinung,daß solche CEOs nicht unterscheiden zwischen wollen und können.

zur errinerrung: bei gold=370$/oz
hatte der barrick-CEO hedging gar zurückgefahren in der erwartung höhere kurse...
und was kam?
eine gewaltige baisse der goldkurse....
früher war ich auch der meinung: wenn einer es weiß, dann sind das eben die CEOs....
die leben doch davon....