Einschätzung der CISCO Zahlen heute ? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[JIM1]

JIM

[noroc]

Nun andere Meinungen würden mich auch interessieren.

Ich denke die 3 cent pro Akatzie werden erreicht.

Das wichtige an der ganzen Sache sind die Aussichten und ob das klappt is ne gute Frage.

Mehr kann ich dazu nicht sagen, da ich seit 4h voll investiert bin,
und wenn ich mir schlechte Aussichten vorstellen würde mir ganz schlecht. Nun es wird sich zeigen ob ich die Nacht heute nüchtern erlebe oder nicht ;-) , nun im Grunde ist es egal wie das Ergebniss wird, nüchtern wird es garantiert nicht.

Wenn ich mir aber den Chart von Cisco ansehe könnte es morgen ein positives erwachen geben.

Noroc, sag ich da nur.

[OnassisA.]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B807636EE%2…

Cisco call options see heavy volume
Investors making a bad bet on recovery, says researcher

By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:07 PM ET Aug. 7, 2001




CINCINNATI (CBS.MW) - Heavy trading of Cisco Systems options may indicate investors are betting too heavily on a rebound in business for the networking gear maker.

The California company, in the eyes of many Wall Street analysts, will earn 2 cents a share for the fourth quarter that closed last week. The slim profit, excluding items and good-will amortization, would be far less than its year-ago profit and even a penny below its third-quarter profit.

Yet those numbers - if Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile) meets expectations when the market closes Tuesday -- may not be enough to prop up the company`s shares, says one quantitative analyst.


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That`s because the open interest on Cisco`s August call option contract, strike price $20, is 138,000.

"That`s enormous," says Christopher Johnson, managing quantitative analyst at Schaeffer`s Investment Research in Cincinnati. "What that tells us is that Wall Street is really expecting Cisco to blow the door off expectations. We certainly don`t expect that to happen."

Options activity usually increases as a company prepares to report earnings. But rarely does open interest in a company`s call options exceed 100,000. Last month, for the first time ever, three call options contracts for a company exceeded 100,000.

Call options are a bet on a rising stock price. The record-setting company was computer chip maker Intel Corp. (INTC: news, chart, profile) Investors were heavily betting that the company`s shares would exceed three different strike prices by the third Friday in July.

"I think it showed that the market was too hopeful for Intel," says Johnson, who sees a similar pattern with Cisco. "We call it the slope of hope."

In the case of Cisco, whose quarterly report is eagerly awaited Tuesday afternoon, investors may be too complacent about the company`s networking equipment business.



Investors who buy the Cisco August 20 call option (CYQ=HD: news, chart, profile) expect Cisco shares, now at $19.42, to close above $20 by Aug. 17. For those investors to make money, Cisco`s chief executive, John Chambers, "would have to come out and reiterate positive year-end numbers, which would be a rare occurrence in this market," the analyst said Tuesday. "We are going to see selling in Cisco."

Wall Street analysts see Cisco`s fourth-quarter sales falling to $4.35 billion or so, an 8 percent drop from the previous quarter.

Johnson says call options trading on the August 20 contract far outweighs the activity in its opposite, the Cisco put contract. (Puts are essentially contracts that increase in value as a stock`s price drops.) The open interest in August $20 Cisco call contracts outnumbers the Cisco puts by about a 6-to-1 margin.

The Cisco August 20 call contract was last selling for 60 cents, down 30 percent from the open Tuesday. The steep decline in the options contract came as Cisco shares sold off before the release of the company`s quarterly report (See chart below.)

This may sound like hocus-pocus, but professionals keep close track of options activity in individual company shares. Johnson and the firm he works for, founded by strategist Bernie Schaeffer, see too many investors pinning their hopes on improved earnings outlooks.

"Investors are hoping earnings will pull the markets out of the tank, but we don`t think we`ve seen enough fundamental good news," says Johnson, who with his boss, Schaeffer, attended the San Francisco Money Show this past weekend. "I mean, some tech companies are giving up visibility going into the end of the year. There is an awful lot of bad news and investors are still very hopeful. That`s not natural."



Johnson says he won`t rule out a return to the lows Nasdaq stocks sank to in March.

The Schaeffer research firm, with 70 employees, also analyzes the so-called fear indicators for Nasdaq and the Standard & Poor`s 100 Index. Their official names are the Chicago Board Options Exchange Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN: news, chart, profile), the QQQ Volatility Index (QQV: news, chart, profile) and the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX: news, chart, profile).

The VIX measures short-term market volatility for the Standard & Poor`s 100 Index, The QQV is based on the Nasdaq 100 Index tracking stock, the so-called QQQ (QQQ: news, chart, profile). All of the volatility indexes show dizzy investors piling into call contracts for the Nasdaq 100 at an accelerating pace.

"I was sitting on the plane reading my USA TODAY and right there was an article on semiconductors and the word `hope` was in the article," said Johnson. "But we have an Intel and AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) price war. What happens when all this begins to be priced in by investors?"

The analyst sees further damage for both Intel and Cisco shares. Cisco`s stock, if it falls to $15 from its current $19.42, would be a windfall for put options investors who are betting against the world`s largest networking equipment company and a disaster for those optimists holding the calls. See Thom Calandra`s StockWatch video for more.

Thom Calandra is Editor-in-Chief of CBS MarketWatch.

[Andrew34]

noroc...
Hat zwar nicht direkt mit Cisco zutun aber kann es sein,
dass du etwas mit Rumänien zutun hast ?

[SchmidtsKatze]

Cisco fourth-quarter profits fall 86 percent

8/7/2001 4:20:00 PM
SAN JOSE, Calif., Aug 7 (Reuters) - Technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) , which makes gear that helps power the Internet, said on Tuesday its fiscal fourth-quarter profits fell 86 percent as the economic slowdown continued to hit the tech sector hard.

The San Jose, California-based networking giant said its operating earnings for the quarter ended July 28 were $163 million, or 2 cents a share, compared with $1.2 billion, or 16 cents a share, in the same period last year.

Analysts had expected the company to earn 2 cents a share, with a range of nil to 4 cents, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call.

Sales fell 25 percent to $4.3 billion from $5.72 billion last year. Cisco had said sales would be flat to down 10 percent from the $4.73 billion it posted in its third quarter.

[noroc]

@Andrew34

Nu stiu
könnte ganz leicht möglich sein ;-), kommt darauf an wie man das sieht.

Also verlassen wir uns auf die Revolution (hat mit Cisco zu tun) und schauen uns bei gläs-chen Bohotin die Presseberichte an.

Noroc