Analyse der Folgen des Terrorakts fuer Maerkte - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

Zusammenfassung von 2 Berichten, weiter unten der Volltext:

Bericht 1: Analyse vergangener Katastrophen: Indices steigen ("strong recovery") bereits im 1. Monat nach den Schock-crashs UND Fed sagt "wir machen alles um die Wirtschaft voranzubringen", mit Kommentar "the impact of that statement is very positive for stock prices".

Bericht 2: Statusbericht grosse Investmentbanken im WTC: Fast alle operieren bereits wieder, Mehrheit der Angestellten gerettet, insbes. auch Morgan Stanley

1.) Expect a drop, then a slow rebound - Stocks and disasters - History shows panics trigger mar
By Paul Haavardsrud.
North American stocks are expected to fall sharply amid volatile trading in the coming days, but if history is any indication, the initial weakness won`t be sustained.
The last 60 years of market history show stocks trade swiftly lower immediately following a major event, but within a month the broad indexes make a strong recovery, strategists at RBC Dominion Securities found.
Canadian stocks markets are scheduled to reopen today, with the U.S. following suit tomorrow or Monday after Tuesday`s terrorist attack on New York and Washington.
In the days following the attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941, the U.S. benchmark Standard & Poor`s 500 index dropped by 6.5%, but gained that back and more, rising 1.4% in the ensuing month.
More dramatically, when the United States entered the Korean War on June 25, 1950, the S&P 500 responded by falling 12.0%, but a month later the index had gained 9.0%.
The market traced a similar pattern after the U.S. invasions of Grenada and Panama, its bombing of Libya in 1986, and the coalition bombing of Iraq in 1991.
Checking further into the past, Gibbons Burke, an editor with MarketHistory.com, a firm that provides trading and statistical data, found the Dow Jones industrial average exhibited the same trend during six events that affected U.S. interests since 1898.
The events include: the sinking of the U.S. battleship Maine in 1898; the sinking of the passenger ship the Lusitania in 1915; the attack on the Pearl Harbor naval base in 1941; the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990; the first bombing of the World Trade Center in New York in 1993; and the bombing of federal offices in Oklahoma in 1995.
On all six occasions, after falling for the first two weeks after the event, the Dow average closed steadily higher a month, six months, and a year after the watershed event.
"In the near term, events like this cause near-term fear, panic, and economic disruption but that is when market bottoms are formed," said Tim Ghriskey, head of Ghriskey Capital Partners, a money management firm. "And usually a year later we have stronger and much higher financial markets as economic stability and investors return."
Kent Engelke, capital markets strategist at Anderson & Strudwick in Virginia, noted the only time in recent market history somewhat comparable to Tuesday`s tragic events was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the conclusion of which helped launch a four-year bull market.
The importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve stating yesterday that it will provide the liquidity necessary for the financial system can`t be overlooked, Mr. Engelke said.
The last time the Fed made such a statement was after the market crashed in October, 1987. By demonstrating its willingness to intervene, the Fed turned the equity markets on a dime, helping sow the seeds for the bull run of the 1990s, he said.
"Basically, the Fed has said we`re just going to keep pumping money into the economy and into the system," he said.
"They`re saying `hey if we`ve got to drop rates down to 1% we`ll drop rates down to 1%.` The impact of that statement is very positive for stock prices."
The lessons of history, coupled with sound investing principles, suggest the first few days of trading aren`t a reliable indication of the attack`s effect on the market, said John Brennan, chairman of the Vanguard Group, the second-largest mutual fund firm in the United States.
"In the long term, which is where most investors should focus, the financial markets are driven not by emotion or reactions but rather by fundamental economic conditions," Mr. Brennan said in a statement published on the firm`s Web site.
"Investors rarely are well served by hasty decisions. Our people, our economy and our markets have proven their resiliency over and over again."
(c) 2001, Financial Post from National Post (formerly The Financial Post Company). All rights reserved.
Source: NATIONAL POST 13/09/2001


Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which had 2,500 employees in the south tower, did not give an estimate of casualties. But Philip J. Purcell, its chairman and chief executive, said the "vast majority" got out safely because they began evacuating as soon as the north tower was hit, at 8:45 a.m.
Auszug National Post

Bericht 2.) Big banks shift gears, motor on - `We are professionals`.
By Sandra Rubin.
The leading global investment banks at the heart of world capital markets defiantly maintained operations yesterday, despite the terrorist attacks that left many U.S. operations buried under mounds of smoldering rubble.
"We are all professionals and are paid to do a job - if we cease to do that, they [the terrorists] have won," said Walther Altherr, banks and brokers analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., believed to be the hardest hit when two hijacked U.S. passenger jets were used to ram the World Trade Center, pledged to press on despite huge potential losses among 3,500 of its employees who worked in the landmark towers.
The majority of workers were back-office, support and marketing staff for its U.S. operations. Morgan Stanley stressed that its business in Asia was unaffected.
Merrill Lynch & Co. temporarily suspended operations in New York but emphasized business was functioning across the Asia-Pacific region. The bank said senior U.S. management will resume operations today from a different site.
"In New York, our headquarters are in the World Financial Center which is about 150 metres away from the World Trade Center," explained Bob Sherbin, a Merrill Lynch spokesman.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which leased several floors in the World Trade Center, said it will relocate employees, sending many to New Jersey. "Our basic sales and trading activities are already up and running," said Bill Ahearn, a Lehman spokesman.
Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and other banks shifted U.S. currency trading to cities such as London and Chicago after the terrorist attack. Citigroup, the No.1 foreign exchange trader by market share, is handling some U.S. trading out of London, though its midtown Manhattan office is doing some trading.
Deutsche Bank, the German financial giant which employed about 360 people in the World Trade Center complex, said it has switched operating systems affected by the attack to other locations.
Cantor Fitzgerald, which cannot yet account for about 1,000 employees who worked on the top floors of one of the doomed towers, said it had been co-ordinating with staff in Los Angeles to get its trading infrastructure in place. Cantor, one of the biggest bond trading houses on Wall Street, said its backup systems are such that it will ultimately come out intact.
With much of New York`s financial infrastructure buried under rubble, and U.S. bond and stock markets closed, there were fears that banks would be unable to process transactions and it would be difficult for corporations to get hold of sufficient funds to cover short-term financing needs.
However, despite some communication problems between banks, payment and settlement systems were reported as working reasonably well.
Traders of coffee, sugar, cocoa, cotton and orange juice were forced to confront the fact the U.S. centre for trading those so-called soft commodities was gone. The New York Board of Trade had been located in the World Trade Center. The exchange has a back-up facility in Queens, N.Y., and said it will offer limited trading of commodities there from Monday. In the meantime, those markets are not only left without a place for hedging and speculating, but also without the standard pricing benchmarks against which physical commodity transactions are priced.
(c) 2001, Financial Post from National Post (formerly The Financial Post Company). All rights reserved.

Source: NATIONAL POST 13/09/2001

[Informator]

und hier noch was von Finance online...

Heard in New York
Die finanziellen Konsequenzen der Terrorattacke auf die USA sind verschwindend gering, wenn man sie mit dem unglaublichen Verlust an Menschenleben vergleicht. So grausam sind die einzelnen Schicksale, dass sie sich nicht in Worte fassen lassen. Um der feigen Attacke der Terroristen jedoch möglichst wenig Erfolg zu geben, müssen wir auch darüber nachdenken, was diese für die Finanzmärkte der USA bedeuten wird.

Finanzmärkte werden grundsätzlich durch wirtschaftliche und geldpolitische Fakten gesteuert. So gilt es Ruhe zu bewahren und sich auf die grundlegenden Rahmenbedingungen zu konzentrieren. Diese werden die Terroristen nicht ändern können, auch wenn die Geschehnisse der letzten 24 Stunden die Weltaktienmärkte mit einem vorläufigen zusätzlichen Unsicherheitselement versehen haben. Aber auch der Golfkrieg und das Erdbeben von Kobe (Japan) wurden letztendlich von den Märkten überwunden.

So erhöht sich zwar die Risikoprämie bei Aktien (was in den kommenden Wochen schon wieder abnehmen sollte) bis die Ertragsaussichten der Aktiengesellschaften einen stabilen Ausblick ermöglichen. Wie auch vor dem Attentat liegt der Schlüssel beim amerikanischen Verbraucher. Sollte das Verbrauchervertrauen der amerikanischen Bevölkerung mittel- bis längerfristig Schaden genommen haben, so wird auch die Wirtschaft in die (schon vor dem Anschlag) oft vorhergesagte Rezession eintreten.

Es ist aber davon auszugehen, dass die Federal Reserve schon sehr bald versuchen wird dem Verbrauchervertrauen und der amerikanischen Wirtschaft Schützenhilfe zu geben. So sollten wir uns auf eine massive Zinssenkung der FED und Alan Greenspans, um 50 Basispunkte vorbereiten. Diese sollte von Zinssenkungen anderer großer Zentralbanken flankiert werden, auch wenn diese Zinssenkungen nicht im gleichen Umfang ausfallen werden. Weder im Herzen noch an den Finanzmärkten wird sich Amerika von Fanatikern verändern oder unter kriegen lassen. Das Land rückt in Krisen enger zusammen als viele andere und wird weiter ein offenes Land mit unbegrenzten Möglichkeiten bleiben. Ein Amerika welches sich isoliert und einigelt wäre für die ganze Welt ein Verlust.

Länder welche ihren Finanzinstitutionen bereitwillig erlauben, Geldwäsche für Dritte zu betreiben müssen sich darauf einrichten von den USA (und hoffentlich deren Verbündeten) vom internationalen Geldverkehr ausgeschlossen zu werden. Internationale Finanzinstitutionen müssen viel schärfere interne Kontrollen einführen um sicher zu stellen, dass sie nicht zur Geldwäsche missbraucht werden.

Dies sind nur einige, ungeordnete Gedanken zu den Herausforderungen, welche nun vor uns stehen.
Wir bedanken uns bei allen welche sich via Telephon und E-Mail um unser Befinden gesorgt haben. Es tut gut zu wissen, dass an uns gedacht wird. Mancher Kollege weiß bis heute noch nicht wie es seinem Nachbarn oder Freund am Dienstag ergangen ist. Wir hatten das große Glück vom Geschehen weit genug entfernt zu sein. Unsere Gedanken und Gebete sind weiter bei den Freunden und Verwandten der Opfer dieser Katastrophe.

Das US-Aktien Team der DG European Securities, Claudia, Andrew, Robert und Jerry