Die wahren B2B-Gewinner? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Gintu]

Hallo Zusammen.
Im Moment ist B2B wahnsinnig angesagt und es werden eine Reihe von Unternehmen wie Commerce One, Ariba oder Verticalnet als zukünftige Gewinner genannt. Ich bin allerdings der Meinung, daß es andere Unternehmen sein werden, die sich den größten Teil vom B2B-Geschäft sichern.

Dazu ein kurzer Ausflug in die B2C-Geschichte. Nach der Erfindung des WWW war es ein Unternehmen, daß die zentrale Software für die B2C-Verbindung herstellte. Diese Firma war Netscape und wurde die erfolgreichste Neuemission aller Zeiten (wemm ich mich richtig erinnere).

Leider hatte man die Rechnung ohne den ungekrönten König des Desktop, Microsoft, gemacht. Die sind zwar etwas spät aufgesprungen aber sie wollten diesen Markt, notfalls mit Gewalt und dies ist ja auch gelungen.

Der Bereich Unternehmensweite Standardsoftware wird im wesentlichen von SAP und Oracle beherrscht und diese werden mit Sicherheit versuchen die Commerce One`s, Ariba`S oder Verticalnet`s aus dem Markt zu drängen.

Und ich denke es bestehen gute Chancen, daß ihnen dies gelingt.

Die sichersten und langfristig lukrativsten (> 5 Jahre) Werte im B2B sind meiner Ansicht deshalb

Oracle und SAP

Meinungen?

Gruß

Gintu

[Defense]

können nur die Firmen ohne Risiko sein , die den Zahlungsverkehr sicher machen .
Denen ist es egal , ob das B2B Geschäft von ihren kunden gut oder schlecht läuft. Sicherheit wird von allen gebraucht werden.
Ein guter Thread ist im SAC-Board

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/community/board//ws/threads/…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.wallstreet-online.de/community/board//ws/threads/…

mfg Defense

[Gintu]

Hallo Zusammen,
nach dem fulminanten Comeback von SAP und den Übernahmegrüchten von BWEB durch SAP möchte hier nochmal meine These für dieses Jahr zur Diskussion stellen.

Die großen Gewinner im B2B-Geschäft werden SAP und Oracle sein.

Gruß

Gintu

[Gintu]

nach oben

[StockBiber]

Insider sagen: Und SAP wird weiter laufen - nach Aktiensplit von 300 auf 500 - oder ? Sagt mir, ob dies realistisch ist.

[Gintu]

nach dem kleinen sell-out bei B2B hol ich den Thread doch nochmal nach oben

[Pringle]

Die großen könne nicht überall mit dabei sein. Wenn sie das wollen, dann müssen sie das KnowHow aufkaufen. SAP wird es sich nicht leisten können, eine CMRC zu diesem Preis zu kaufen. Entweder CMRC fällt weiter und sie werden irgendwann gekauft, auch gut, dann geht es wie dem Kurs von Netscape. Oder SAP/Oracle kann sich das nicth leisten, weil der Kurs nicht weiter fällt, dann sind sie aus dem Spiel.

Pringle

[Blumi]

Attention software stock shoppers: A selection of 1999`s diamonds in Internet infrastructure could be falling to cubic zirconia prices.

There`s an entire display case of server-based software companies that power the ".coms" whose shares have been rocked. Thanks to the long-anticipated wet blanket that`s doused the Nasdaq, some of the top software plays of 1999 are off between 40 percent and 50 percent from their highest prices in March.

Some of the software shares -- or all of them if you ask Microsoft`s (MSFT: news, msgs) Steve Ballmer -- deserve to take a hit. He made such a comment in September before many of the infrastructure software stocks had their steepest rises. But even at the time, he had a point, as many stocks in the sector rose to nose-bleed valuations, whether they showed strong fundamentals or not.

Before, Nasdaq`s rising tide lifted all boats. Recently, most of the shares in infrastructure software have sunk, including high-fliers such as New Era of Networks (NEON: news, msgs), down 59 percent this month, as of Thursday. Darling Broadvision (BVSN: news, msgs) is down 45 percent. Even companies across the pond such as Iona Technologies (IONA: news, msgs), down 21 percent, are feeling the effects.

The ones to watch

There`s likely to be an assortment of good infrastructure software choices once a sustained Nasdaq recovery kicks in, with all the above names included, and more than a dozen others. The sector had been especially hard-hit. But really well-known and widely held picks BEA Systems (BEAS: news, msgs) and Citrix Systems (CTXS: news, msgs) are among ones the stock hawks are watching. After taking vicious hits, they could become steals once Nasdaq gets back on track.

Take a look at BEA. It rose 776 percent from $18 in October to a high of $157 3/4 in February. It`s a leader in software used to bridge disparate databases, applications and operating systems -- something that nearly every large company needs. It has a track record of operating earnings, leading technology, strong sales growth, well-known management and big-name partners.

Same company, lower price

Little has changed with the company`s story in recent weeks. Analysts seem to think the company is on-track in its current quarter. In its January quarter, BEA reported better-than-expected results with 82 percent revenue growth and a 273 percent operating earnings spike. What`s more, the company announced plans in February for a 2-for-1 stock split.

Unfortunately, now BEA doesn`t need to issue more shares in a split. The market halved the price on its own, only with the original number of BEA shares. BEA on Thursday closed at $79 5/8 -- about 50 percent off its February high.


BEA vs. its moving average and the S&P 500


BEA`s true value may sit in some unknown territory between its current current valuation and its peak. But one thing`s for sure; it beats the pants off a bunch of little "speculative guys" in the ".com" world, says Cathy Baker, co-manager of the RF Internet Age Fund, a long-time holder of BEA.

The bad with the good

Not everything with BEA is glorious, mind you. Earnings get ugly when charges are included. The company had a net loss of $13.7 million, compared with a loss of $4 million in the year-ago quarter. The company`s diluted net loss per-share was 8 cents, compared with 3 cents.

But BEA`s losses are almost all acquisition-related. And the company gets high marks for making smart purchases, as evidenced by its December deal to buy Symantec Corp.`s (SYMC: news, msgs) Visual Cafe product line for $75 million, in conjunction with Warburg Pincus Ventures.

Visual Cafe is one more way BEA is planning for the long-term. The software will help it exercise more control over future versions of its development software. The true heavyweights that sell application server software for tying databases to applications -- Oracle (ORCL: news, msgs), IBM (IBM: news, msgs) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs). -- are also owners of their own development software. Now, BEA is, too. It`s a company that many consider a long-term holder.

Long-haul Citrix

Another top company, Citrix Systems, (CTXS: news, msgs) which has been churning out quarter-after-quarter of solid earnings for most of a decade, has fallen 41 percent from its March high. The stock had jumped 78 percent from peak-to-trough over the past two months.


Citrix vs. its moving average and the S&P 500


On top of the market slide, recent speculation about an upcoming poor quarter for Citrix have rocked shares. Some investors are concerned that a change in the company`s sales model to become more of a direct-seller could hurt earnings. Analysts also foresee a cloudier sales pipeline than in past quarters, and a possible squeeze on operating margins.

But analysts seem to think that the concerns are overblown, and that shares already have suffered from these known problems. The change to a direct-selling model is a long-term change for the better. Revenue should be strong, says Dain Rauscher Wessels` Sarah Mattson, and it`s not likely the company has negative surprises in store for the upcoming quarter, she says.

Just this week, Citrix made a key announcement that added nothing to the stock, thanks to market conditions and fiscal-first quarter concerns. IBM (IBM: news, msgs) will be using Citrix`s (CTXS: news, msgs) software to give its customers a faster way to take a company`s existing programs and offer them as hosted services over the Internet. It`s something that could have moved the stock 10 or more points in a bull market, yet shares slid.

Deals in the works?

Deals with other big customers could be in the works in upcoming weeks, as Citrix recently has made a push to make its core software work not only with Microsoft operating systems, but with various types of Unix, including Sun Microsystems (SUNW: news, msgs) Solaris. It`s just another way that Citrix is working to broaden its customer base, and sell to more existing customers.

Over the next two years, Citrix could show 40 percent cumulative revenue-and-earnings growth, Mattson says. Simply put, it`s a long-term holder that`s at a fraction of its high, she says.

Timing is of the essence when dealing with Citrix, BEA, or any other stock following a correction. Some of the best words of wisdom on when to buy come from stock guru Bill O`Neil, founder of Investor`s Business Daily (and my former employer). He advises investors to watch the fourth-through-tenth day of a market rally. The sign of a recovery is likely to be a day-to-day improvement of 1 percent on higher volume on any day in the seven-day window. Check Kevin Marder`s recent column for more on how this works.

There`s likely to be a number of company names bandied about in the coming days, should Nasdaq continue its rise, says Mark Dicioccio, head of the West Coast Technology Group for Lehman Bros. In a recent chat, he pointed out that he`ll be watching a number of stocks in the niche. But he`ll be especially eyeing BEA, Citrix, and the stocks he says will be the "long-term, market-defining winners."

QUELLE
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/20000331/news/current/tec…



Blumi

[Gintu]

Die Revolution frißt Ihre Kinder

ORCL 3:47PM 75 1/8 -2 15/16 -3.76%
SAP 3:42PM 54 9/16 -5 3/16 -8.68%
----------------------------
CMRC 3:47PM 113 3/4 -35 1/2 -23.79%
ARBA 3:47PM 85 -19 13/16 -18.90%
VERT 3:47PM 54 1/16 -13 15/16 -20.50%
BWEB 3:47PM 28 1/2 -5 7/8 -17.09%
RETK 3:47PM 33 5/8 -7 9/16 -18.36%

btw. CMRC + ARBA sind auf diesem Niveau sicher ein Kauf

[Gintu]

Experts say majority of B2B firms to fail in two years
By Rachel Konrad
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
May 25, 2000, 12:15 p.m. PT
The vast majority of business-to-business virtual marketplaces--and the independent companies that host them--will fail within two years.

That`s the bleak consensus of e-commerce executives convening in San Francisco this week at the Association of Strategic Alliance Professionals Summit (ASAP), sponsored by Andersen Consulting, Lucent Technologies and Unisys.


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Government antitrust investigations into online exchanges and viscious talent poaching among business e-commerce companies and their clients are the main culprits in draining enthusiasm from the sector. Since the beginning of the year, Wall Street has smacked B2B stocks harder than almost any other business category.

Such disdain is a dramatic reversal from five months ago, when Wall Street touted B2B as the ne plus ultra investment segment and pushed company valuations to unprecedented levels.

Most business e-commerce companies have not gone public. For those that have launched initial public offerings, the extreme boom-and-bust cycle in the price of the shares reflects investors` pessimism about the sector:

• Commerce One shares went public last July at a split-adjusted price of $3.50, soared to $165.50 and then sank 75 percent to the current price of $41.25.

• Ariba sold its shares last June at a split-adjusted price of $5.75. They peaked at $183.33 and now trade at $55, a 70 percent decline.

• Viant also went public in June, when it sold shares for a split-adjusted $8. The shares topped out at $63.56 and now trade for $20, a 69 percent decline.

• In its December IPO, FreeMarkets sold shares for $48. They soon surged to $370, but have since plunged by 89 percent to a current price of about $42.50.

• In April 1999, Marimba priced its IPO at $20 a share. The stock peaked at $68.88 and now trades around $12, an 83 percent slide.

Virtual marketplaces are typically private sites that act as discount clearinghouses for bulk goods and services in a particular industry. Although competing companies generally cooperate to build the sites, online trade exchanges reduce costs and theoretically heighten competition by making the participants more efficient.

The largest exchange announced so far--but still not operational--is Covisint, a 5-month-old automobile industry consortium connecting the world`s top automakers and their 30,000 suppliers. The marketplace is expected to have annual transactions valued at more than $300 billion.

In February, software database giant Oracle unveiled a venture with retail giant Sears Roebuck and French retailer Carrefour to build an online marketplace serving the retail industry. Sears and Carrefour will initially share a majority stake in GlobalNetXchange, which will link them to their 50,000 suppliers, partners and distributors over the Internet.

Despite such grand announcements, investors say their skepticism over business e-commerce trade exchanges is well founded: Roughly 85 percent of all virtual marketplaces that have been announced in the past year--typically with a blast of marketing and public relations bombast--are not yet operational, said Barbara Babcock, president of e-business services for information technology provider Unysis.

Although executives in charge of many marketplaces expect to begin operations within 18 to 24 months, Babcock is dubious that most will survive the planning process. The two-year process will likely be a chaotic period of massive employee defections and enormous changes in the B2B business model itself.

"Try to imagine a group of competitors staying in touch with each other for two years with no concrete service or product on the market," Babcock said at the three-day ASAP conference, which ends tomorrow. "They can`t all stay in business."

Skepticism about B2B companies and the marketplaces they create dovetails with broader investor suspicion for Internet companies in general. Of roughly 400 public Internet companies, 12 are expected to report profits this year, according to Walid Mougayar, president of CyberManagement.

Online exchanges face additional scrutiny from the U.S. government, which is investigating whether such exchanges are monopolistic. The Federal Trade Commission is looking into Covisint and GlobalNetXchange to determine whether they make it easy for automakers and clothiers and their top suppliers to collude on prices and squeeze smaller suppliers out of business.

"If you have all the automobile kings coming together and squishing suppliers, I can`t help but think that`s going to be viewed as anti-competitive," Babcock said.

Business e-commerce companies such as Ariba and Commerce One face additional pressure: Large manufacturers are loath to forfeit the potential revenue stream that their supply chain exchanges generate--especially to companies they perceive as audacious Silicon Valley start-ups and dot-coms.

Although companies such as General Motors and Sears have been willing to farm out virtual marketplace implementation to technology companies, some predict the big companies will simply poach tech talent to manage marketplaces of their own.

Experts say "old economy" stalwarts are likely to lure top tech executives to in-house B2B divisions with lofty salaries instead of the promise--as yet unfulfilled--of getting rich with risky stock options. More drastic, industrial giants may buy their B2B suppliers outright.

The crashing valuations of business e-commerce companies traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market means that large companies can afford to acquire their tech support companies, said Jamie Friedman, B2B commerce analyst for Goldman Sachs.

"The empire has struck back," Friedman said. "The company that owns the supply chain technology shouldn`t be worth more than the companies themselves. There`s something obscene about that...In the old economy, there`s something of a victory party going on."