Neue Studie: The death of .com!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[rich]

Studie prognostiziert Korrektur der Aktienbewertung von Dot.Coms

Singapur (pte) (6. Jänner 00/07:00) - Den Ergebnissen einer aktuellen Studie des Marktforschungsunternehmens International Data Corporation (IDC) http://www.idc.com zufolge, wird Gratis-Internetzugang in diesem Jahr gang und gäbe. IDC-Chef Frank Gens meint außerdem, dass die finanzielle Bewertung von Dot.Coms der Realität angepasst werden und Unternehmen, die ausschließlich im Internet existieren, bald aussterben würden.

Gens ist sicher, dass im Jahr 2000 Aktienpreise von Internet-Firmen stark korrigiert werden und in wichtigen Segmenten des E-Commerce bedeutende Konsolidierungen stattfinden. Darüber hinaus meint er, dass Dot.Coms langsam aber sicher einen Trend in Richtung Rentabilität erfahren werden.


Freier Internetzugang und Gratissoftware würden schon am Ende des ersten Quartals 2000 allerorts üblich sein, so Gens. Dabei spielte er auf den Deal zwischen Yahoo http://www.yahoo.com und Kmart Corp. http://www.bluelight.com an, die ja gemeinsam auf der Retail-Site Bluelight.com Internetservices kostenfrei anbieten.


Gens ist weiters überzeugt, dass ausschließlich im Web existente Unternehmen einigen Aufwand unternehmen müssen, um überleben zu können. Denn die Konsumenten lebten nun einmal in der realen Welt. Auch die Nutzung von Netzwerkeffekten werde in Zukunft unumgänglich sein. Unternehmen müssten eigene elektronische Kanäle erweitern und selbst zu Kanälen für andere Firmen werden. Virtuelle Einkaufszentren und digitale Marktplätze würden einen starken Aufwärtstrend erfahren.


Den technologischen Fortschritt betreffend prognostiziert der IDC-Chef, dass bis zum Ende des Jahres bereits zehn Prozent aller US-Haushalte mit Breitband-Möglichkeiten ausgestatten sein werden. Außerdem würden 38 Prozent der Haushalte mit zwei oder mehr PCs bis dahin über eigene LANs (local area network) verfügen.


Im Management-Bereich erkennt Gens weitere Trends: Die CEOs berühmter Unternehmen würden bald neue Herausforderungen suchen und zu Dot.Coms überwechseln. Außerdem würden viele der Fortune 1000-Firmen Probleme haben, Online-Initiativen umzusetzen. Daher sei zu erwarten, dass einige der Internet-Chefs großer Unternehmen ihren Job verlieren. (industry standard) (Ende)

Orginal Studie:


IDC Predictions 2000

Analyst: Frank Gens

IDC Opinion
What are IDC`s predictions for the key events in the Internet and IT marketplaces in 2000?

The key themes for the Internet and IT marketplaces in 2000 will be as follows:

Financial reality will meet the Internet: A broadening Internet stock correction, consolidation in key ecommerce segments, and a shift to profitability as a virtue for .coms all will occur.
Free Internet access services, devices, and software: What we`ve seen so far is nothing. IT suppliers, ISPs, and .coms will feel intense pressure to adapt to this new economic model, the next step in expanding consumer Internet adoption.
The death of .com as a sole strategy: Customers are on the Internet -- and everywhere else! In the coming year, pure-play Internet players will develop presence in the real world.
Channels, channels, channels: This year, smart companies will actually put the network effect to work in their business model (duh!), radically expanding their echannels and becoming channels for others.
This is the fifth year that IDC Predictions is centered on the Internet and its huge impact on technology, businesses, and consumers. We have consistently focused on the key changes that offer large opportunities for those who position themselves ahead of the pack. Some prior predictions include the following:

The billion-user Internet. In 1995, when there were a scant 19 million Internet users, IDC predicted a new economy built on a base of over 1 billion people connected to the Internet by 2005. Today, there are over 200 million online; the "new economy" has become conventional wisdom; and our billion-user scenario remains right on track. In hindsight, it is amazing how many businesses waited until just the last year or two to develop Internet strategies.

Business-to-business (B2B) dominance. In 1996, as portals and electronic retailers ("e-tailers") grabbed most of the headlines, we pointed out that B2B ecommerce would be preeminent and would increasingly dominate through 2003. Remarkably, Wall Street and many others have just taken notice, as B2B ".coms" have led the latest round of hot Internet initial public offerings (IPOs).

Cheap and free appliances and PCs. In 1996 and 1997, we predicted that "information appliances" would emerge and ultimately outnumber PCs as Internet access devices. We also predicted that PCs would drop to $500 and below, and that appliances and PCs could quickly become "giveaways" for online businesses attracting customers. This year`s rollout of Web-enabled mobile phones and wireless personal digital assistants (PDAs), as well as the "free PC" movement, have borne out this prediction.

Virtual is reality. Last year, we forecast that 1999 would be the year of the "new Internet," in which ecommerce would go from the fringes to mainstream for businesses and individuals. At an individual level, one effect of this mainstreaming was the predicted shift of women from an online minority to parity. On the corporate front, this year saw a huge birth rate for new Internet initiatives in the Fortune 1000 as well as among small and medium businesses.

Looking ahead to 2000, the Internet focus for our predictions is more appropriate than ever. Once again, they offer insights into the next 12-18 months and beyond with the purpose of giving readers a head-start in positioning themselves now for the changes ahead.

1. An Internet stock correction will be made (again!).
Last year, we predicted an Internet stock correction in 1999 based on the following principle: While the Internet boom is creating companies worthy of huge valuations, those are a very small minority. It`s wheat from chaff time -- and in Internet commerce, there`s a lot of chaff.

Many people actually think this correction did not happen, citing, for example, that TheStreet.com`s well-known Internet Index was recently up nearly 200% for the year, with 85% of index companies outpacing the S&P 500. That index is broad and shallow, however, composed of 20 top-echelon companies in Internet infrastructure and Internet commerce. To see the 1999 Internet stock correction that did indeed happen -- and we`re not just talking about the Net stock swoon in the spring and summer -- you have to look deeper, capturing not just the top dogs but the whole pack.

Specifically, the sector that has truly defined "voodoo e-conomics" -- online retailing -- tanked big time and is still largely under water for the year. internetstocks.com`s ETAILDEX, composed solely of 42 consumer retail .coms, had a median year-over-year price change of minus 20%, with over 70% of index stocks underperforming the S&P. Now that`s a correction.

For 2000, we`re predicting that the intensifying winners-take-all attitude of the markets will continue in the online retailing space. Significantly, the markets will also become more discriminating in the B2B segment, which has its share of junky companies.

Overall, this will mark a strong shift away from the "red ink is good" Internet business model to profitability as a .com virtue. In IDC`s most recent Internet Executive ePanel survey, almost two-thirds of surveyed Internet players expect to be profitable by 2001. Whether they will be or not, we shall see, but these responses show a growing sense that they need to be.

2. Numerous bogus warnings will be made of a consumer Internet slowdown.
This is an easy prediction: Several firms have already pointed to month-to-month slowdowns in Internet user growth as alleged signs of market maturity and perhaps even saturation. This conclusion is so wrong, it`s hardly worth debating. For the record, we predict the opposite.

In fact, IDC forecasts that 2000 will see the U.S. Internet user population nudge up to the 50% threshold of 137 million. Worldwide, the Internet user population will exceed the population of the United States, which is 274 million. For the skeptics, we point out that in the five years we have been forecasting Internet growth, we have been consistently wrong -- on the low side -- and, frankly, 2000 is unlikely to be an exception.

One reason online user growth will continue is that free Internet access will explode, as predicted below.

3. Free Internet access (and hardware and software) will explode.
You don`t have to pay admission to enter a brick-and-mortar store, so why should you have to pay to shop online? At IDC`s Directions conference in 1996, we predicted that online merchants would subsidize customers` Internet access, leading to zero cost for many users. In 1999, PC suppliers such as Compaq and Gateway understood the new model and offered free Net access through bundling deals with Internet service providers (ISPs).

In 2000, free Internet access deals will expand to all major emerchant segments: brokers, banks, retailers, travel companies, etc. In some cases, free Internet appliances (e.g., Web phones, PDAs, and PCs) will also be offered. Thus, Kmart`s eyebrow-raising deal with Yahoo! offering free Internet access to those who register at Bluelight.com is going to look very, very common by the end of the first quarter. Wal-Mart and America Online (AOL) have announced a joint effort as well but have not yet revealed Internet access pricing. In our view, it better be zero or it will be a bust.

In Europe, grocery chain Tesco is well known for offering free Internet access to its ClubCard members. The catch in the United Kingdom and throughout Europe is that users must pay exorbitant local telephone charges on top of ISP charges. We believe European emerchants will take the next step in the next 18 months, offering completely free Internet access with no telephone charges.

None of this free access will truly be free, of course. Someone will be paying the ISPs, PCs, and Internet appliance companies. So online merchants, IT suppliers, telephone companies, and ISPs must be ready for very new ideas about who the end user is and who will be paying their bills -- increasingly, these will be different entities. (Yes, this even goes for AOL.)

Oh yeah -- Sun Microsystems` Scott McNealy is right: More and more software will also be "free" in 2000, bundled in as an integral part of an online product or service. IDC identified this trend over two years ago as it defined the application software provider (ASP) market.

4. Key Internet segments -- portals, online travel, finance, retail -- will consolidate.
As noted above, the wheat-from-chaff effect that we saw in online retailing in 1999 will spread in 2000. This will drive more consolidation in key ecommerce segments, including:

Retailing. Retailing is a harsh realm, with a continuing flood of new entrants in a highly competitive market. As in 1999, financial markets will continue to reward the online retail stars and starve the also-rans -- consolidation will continue.
Portals (again). Last year, we predicted lots of merger and acquisition activity, and the theme continues in 2000. Disney will likely seek a graceful exit from GO, perhaps merging it with a larger entity. CMGI will take AltaVista public, then merge it with Lycos or Yahoo!.
Travel. Even as online travel continues to be the largest consumer online commerce category, with over $1 billion of spending per month, intensifying competitive pressure will drive the consolidation of struggling sites.
Finance. The death of the Glass-Steagall Act, the drive toward one-stop financial services sites, global competition, and the influx of new classes of online financial services players (including AOL, Yahoo, and other strong online consumer brands) will all drive a flurry of mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures.
5. The death of .com: Internet pure-plays will buy into reality.
No, we`re not predicting the demise of the Internet as a business channel. In 2000, however, it will be increasingly clear that the dominant companies in each segment must not only have a strong Internet strategy but also strong non-Internet channels, including real-world points of presence. Yes, we`re talking brick and mortar, or at least engines and tires. One reason: As the next wave of people come online, they`re less likely to be entranced with the Internet and more likely to want merchants to reach out to them wherever they are, through whatever channel is most convenient at the time.

The importance of a "bricks-and-clicks" strategy is not news for brick-and-mortar companies; many have done so by adding an Internet channel presence. But what 2000 will add is a flurry of deals in which pure-play Internet companies "get real" by purchasing, merging with, creating joint ventures with, or forming partnerships with real-world companies. Think pure-play Internet banks and brokers and regional banks -- or even convenience store chains! Think Amazon.com and Webvan.

Ironically, just this year Wall Street torpedoed the proposed real/virtual marriage of Lycos and Home Shopping Network. Our message to Wall Street and others is this: Get used to the idea of mergers that create strong multichannel players -- they`re the ones that will reach the market where it is, which is everywhere (not just on the Net).

Within established businesses that have successfully developed strong Internet channels, we also predict the death of .com, with a shift in 2000 toward organizational integration. Leaders such as Dell Computer will begin to more tightly integrate their online business with their core business. For example, expect corporate IS departments and Internet unit technical staff to become part of the same organization. A key issue: Should the Internet organization swallow the legacy or will the legacy swallow the Internet team? Our bet: The winning cultural recipe will be two-thirds Internet, one-third legacy.

Such companies would challenge the notion that this integration represents a "death of .com"; they would contend that it is instead a "death of legacy"! What`s significant is that these companies will erase the concept of the Internet business as a standalone entity, disconnected or loosely connected to the core business. In our view, that really is the death of .com and the birth of multichannel, Internet-savvy businesses.

[A caveat: For businesses in the early stages of creating an Internet channel, integration is a recipe for certain failure. In our view, not until the Internet business is well established does it make sense to seek organizational integration.]

Lastly, we`re also predicting the death of .com in another sense: In 2000, we will see the beginning of a steady decline in the use of ".com" as a suffix for company names. In a few years, having a business named "(anything).com" will seem hopelessly dated and silly.

6. New virtual malls will arise as commerce magnets.
When Internet commerce started to emerge a few years back, the idea of one-stop-shopping sites -- virtual malls -- was considered a leading business model. That was just before a bunch of them flopped! IBM`s World Avenue, the Internet MCI mall, and Time Warner`s DreamShop come to mind.

In 2000, rather than flop, a new generation of one-stop-shopping sites will move quickly up the Media Metrix and NetRatings charts, taking off as powerful consumer ecommerce magnets. Who are these new virtual malls? They include the portals, which have begun to marry their own strong Internet brands with search capabilities across thousands of products from hundreds of brand-name suppliers and sites. Lycos, AltaVista, and MSN joined Yahoo! in launching virtual malls this year. Joining the portals in this new wave of one-stop-shopping sites are start-ups featuring comparison shopping across hundreds and thousands of sites through the use of so-called shopbot technology. Among these are MySimon, Shopper.com, and RoboShopper.

What does the reemergence of these new virtual malls mean? First, the smart online merchants will use these channels rather than fight them (as online auction sites have foolishly fought the `bots). Second, the best of these sites will raise the bar of competition beyond simple price wars as they offer reviews of customer service, reliability, speed of delivery, and other features.

Watch out, Amazon.com.

7. (e)Channels will stage a comeback.
Internet folklore has held that the Net is where you can -- and do -- get rid of indirect channel relationships and go directly to your customer. While the Net is the ultimate direct marketing medium, it is also, because of the network effect, the ultimate indirect marketing medium. The Internet is a place where businesses should take advantage of, not ignore, the network effect. IDC predicts that 2000 will be the year in which most leading Internet businesses understand that.

In 2000, indirect channels will make a huge comeback in a variety of Internet-centric forms -- what we call echannels. Just a few examples:

Shopbots and the new virtual malls. As mentioned above, these aggregators of information about commerce sites could become powerful new brokers, which smart sites will utilize aggressively.
Digital marketplaces. In the B2B world, the number of online digital marketplaces, exchanges, and vertical portals will rise from about 500 to nearly 10,000 worldwide. Among the newcomers will be consumer crossovers Yahoo!, AOL, and others (see below).
Affiliate marketing. Internet-based affiliate programs will generate almost $5 billion in 2000, or about 10% of all U.S. online consumer ecommerce.
Two key questions that all online businesses will ask themselves in 2000 are as follows: 1) Are we reaching the market through a broad enough array of echannels?, and 2) Are we doing enough to become an echannel for others?

We predict a telltale sign of this embrace of online channels: In 2000, Dell Computer -- a company that has long preached the virtues of the direct model and railed against the inefficiencies of indirect channels -- will announce indirect channel deals with a number of B2B marketplaces.

8. Consumer ecommerce leaders will drink B2B Kool-Aid.
In 2000, B2B transactions will account for 77% of worldwide ecommerce. And, as noted above, there will literally be thousands of sites competing to become the key marketplaces for business buyers.

In the past, we`ve noted both the huge opportunity that B2B offers as well as our belief that B2B sites need to learn more from business-to-consumer (B2C) sites, and vice versa. IDC predicts that in 2000, the walls between the B2B and B2C worlds will crumble quite a bit more as top consumer online players, including Yahoo!, MSN, and Lycos, go after the B2B market, leveraging their strong brands, online experience, and market clout. While each already has low-profile efforts in place, mainly targeted at small businesses, we expect them to dramatically turn up the heat.

Watch out, VerticalNet.

9. Europe will invade the United States.
For the last two years, IDC has predicted that the European online population would surge and that U.S. .coms would ratchet up their European presence. The online invasion of Europe is now well under way.

The question remains, however: Where are the European .coms, and why aren`t they invading the world`s largest online market -- the United States? If the Internet is about global competition, where are the competitors from the world`s largest single market?

In 2000, IDC predicts that European .coms will begin the U.S. invasion. U.S. online consumers and businesses will see advertising and other marketing initiatives from European-based .coms such as Boo.com, which has already made the leap, as well as .coms that are already pan-European, such as LetsBuyIt and Dressmart. Such pan-European companies are well ahead of their U.S. counterparts in dealing with international commerce issues such as language, currency, regulation, logistics, and culture.

[In 2000, as the pack "discovers" Europe, the Internet leaders will stay ahead by investing in the rebounding Asia/Pacific Internet marketplace.]

10. Key technology winners will emerge, and one technology will stumble.
Some important defining technologies for the next-generation of Internet usage and commerce will break out this year, including:

Broadband to the home. This will be by far the biggest technology step forward in Internet adoption. By yearend 2000, over 1 in 10 online households will have high-speed Internet access -- about 2.5 times the number in 1999. Cable will dominate, but digital subscriber line (DSL) will come on strong, with the benefit of armies of resellers. Ten percent penetration may not seem like much, but it will be more than enough to spur development of content and applications that take advantage of speed (and always-on). In a recent IDC Internet Executive ePanel survey, almost 40% of respondents indicated that they will have developed special content targeted to broadband users by the end of 2000. This is important because by 2003 over one-third of U.S. online homes will have broadband. Leaders are getting ready now. (And -- oh yes -- open cable is inevitable.)

Home LANs. Most consumers don`t know how to spell LAN, never mind to install one! By the end of 2000, however, almost 38% of U.S. households with PCs will have two or more. Shared Internet access (especially pricey DSL and cable) and shared printers and disks will be strong incentives for these households to install home networks. IDC predicts that in 2000, almost 20% of homes with multiple PCs will have a network, up from 10% in 1999. Leading technology contenders: wireless and telephone line.

eWallets. Wired consumers -- especially the next wave of Internet users -- will be mighty tired of entering and reentering their name, address, credit card information, and other data at every site from which they buy. IDC predicts that after several years of hype, 2000 will finally be the year in which ewallets reach critical mass -- just in time for the 2000 holiday season.

And the technology stumble of the year? Wireless Web access. Don`t get us wrong: We`re believers in the viability and eventual ubiquity of wireless Internet access through appliances such as phones and PDAs. In 2000, however, the expectations and hype will get way ahead of the reality. Wireless Web access will be more a technology playpen experience than an opportunity. The signal of a stumbling rollout: Web access by mobile phone will be a giveaway -- no extra charges, no per-minute charges -- as providers discover there is little pent-up demand for 14.4 or 28.8 bits per second Yahoo! on a cell phone.

However, with almost 40% of IDC`s Internet Executive ePanel respondents developing narrowband content for wireless devices in the next 12 months, 2001 could be a big takeoff year in this space. So behind the scenes in 2000, Internet leaders will be actively climbing into the playpen, learning to walk before the market runs.

Predictions Grab-Bag: Microsoft, Politicians, Celebrity CEOs, and Fired VPs
Microsoft will break up. We predicted this last year. Either Microsoft will break itself up or the Department of Justice will. Yes, we were a little bit early. Yes, it`s still going to happen.

Still more presidential candidates will seek Internet paternity. Last year, we predicted that one or more presidential candidates would seek to grab credit for the Internet and ecommerce -- thank you, Mr. Vice President. Amazingly, the flack that Al Gore took will not deter others from seeking Internet credit in 2000. The scary part is that they will do so by proposing new legislation and regulation.

Celebrity CEOs will jump to .coms. What do you do when you`re an upper middle-aged executive who`s done it all, are tremendously wealthy, and are bored out of your mind? Time to jump to an Internet start-up! Our picks to follow Lou Dobbs and George Shaheen are Scott McNealy of Sun and Larry Ellison of Oracle. Here are two guys who are smart, can claim victory in their current job (once the Microsoft prediction comes true), and love the limelight. These are out-on-a-limb picks since they also are the heart and soul of their current companies.

Many Fortune 1000 businesses will still bungle .com. In spite of the many very visible examples of how not to run an Internet business, many Fortune 1000 companies will still struggle getting their online initiatives to work. Expect a lot of Internet unit VPs and presidents to be fired. In most cases it certainly won`t be from lack of effort. The main problems will be the same as it has been in the last several years: the wrong leaders, the wrong organizational structure, internal channel conflict, external channel conflict, underinvestment in key areas, poor site design, lack of information integration with the legacy business, and not enough organizational incubation from the legacy business.

[Brad]

Salve rich!

Auch wenn Du meine geliebte WAP - Technologie dauernd mies machst *g*, so schätze ich doch Deine postings sehr. Du bist einer der Wenigen hier, der sich bemüht, auch mal kritisch in die Zukunft zu sehen und Trends frühzeitig zu erkennen. Wenn Du nun auch noch dazu übergehen würdest, Deine englischsprachigen Quellen zu übersetzen, um Deinen hunderten von Fans das Verstehen zu erleichtern, dann werde ich Dich noch mehr bewundern ... ;-)

Hau rein!

Gruß

Brad

[Milenium2000]

Hi Brad,

ich sage Dir, was wichtiger ist als die einfache Übersetzung des obigen Textes, nämlich, welche Aktien profitieren werden, Gens Aussagen folgend:

At Home, weil Breitband-Technologie, Internetzugang über TV-Kabelnetz.

Yahoo!, weil größtes Medienunternehmen der Welt mit großer Produktpalette.

Lycos, weil stark im e-commerce tätig.

AOL, weil Führender im B2C-Bereich.

CMGI, weil in sehr viele B2B-Unternehmen frühzeitig investiert.

Gruß,

Milenium2000

[Brad]

Salve Milenium2000!

Tja, sind halt alles die ganz großen. Aber , ist es das? Da fehlen doch einige "Marktführer", oder?
Ich glaube nicht, daß gerade in diesem Bereich die Zunkunft so einfach aus der Gegenwart abzuleiten ist. Scheint mir eine philosophische Betrachtung zu sein.

Man lese sich mal Platons Höhlengleichnis durch. (Erkenntnistheorie). Philosophie hat sehr viel mit Börse zu tun, mehr noch als Psychologie.
Vieleicht werden es die oben genannten Unternehmen sein, denen das MORGEN gehört, vielleicht gehen sie auch den Weg der Dampfschiffahrtsgesellschaften, wer weiß ...

Ich glaube an Gewinne von heute, die gibt es auf die Hand und an die Phantsie. Ich glaube nicht an Lemminge. Wozu sind wir Individuen? Also, rein in die kleinen Klitschen, die wir hier alle so lieben !!! ;-) *ggg*

Gruß

Brad in der Tonne

[Sprotdirektor]

Hallo Milenium,

ich muß Abbitte leisten(ich meine das Ernst), Du scheinst ja doch einigermaßen clever
zu sein. Nach den versch."MASCHENDRAHTZAUN"-Threads heute, hatte ich
schon Zweifel.

Gruß

[rich]

Hallo Brad!

Nun ja, der obige Teil meines ersten Postings ist eine grobe Übersetzung der englischsprachigen Analyse.
Dort wird so ziemlich das Wichtigste übersetzt.

Er sieht halt für den B2C Markt Probleme und ist optimistisch für B2B.
Im Grunde denke ich ähnlich, auch wenn mir viele wiedersprechen werden so sehe ich für reinrassige B2C Werte wie AOL,Yahoo usw. kein übermäßiges Kurspotenzial mehr.
Oder neutraler gesagt, ich denke andere Internetsparten haben ein weitaus höeres Kurspotenzial.

Ich beschränke mich deshalb auf Infrastruktur- und B2B Aktien.
(Nortel, Nokia, Infospace, AT&T, Doubleclick, Cmgi , Alcatel......)

Im übrigen bin ich gar nicht so skeptisch für WAP, habe mit Infospace ja eine Aktie die von Wap überdurchschnittlich profitiert.
Nur Infospace hat den Vorteil viele andere Geschäftsfelder auch noch zu haben. Phone.com oder auch Nocom sind viel zu sehr von anderen Firmen abhängig und ich wage die Prognose das früher oder später die WAP-Software von Microsoft kommen wird.

grüsse rich