BMC SOFTWARE Kurs -50% aber nur -5% u. Jahresprog. - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[zockerstudent]

Hier ein paar Infos aus dem TopStockBörsenbrief.
Zur INFO Handel am Freitag wieder 20 Mio an NASDAQ
Schlusskurs 43,125 $ und in Deutschland 44,50 Euro
Pressekonferenz am 25. Januar (lt. Yahoo.com)
Meines Erachtens viel zu stark gefallen und kurzfristige
20 - 30% möglich. Danke für Kommentare

ZOCKERSTUDENT

BMC Software: Geprügelte NASDAQ-Aktie

Über ein Drittel ihres Wertes verlor die Aktie der BMC Software
(WPKN: 875716) am vergangenen Mittwoch an der NASDAQ, von 77 auf
unter 50 US$ rutschte der Kurs. Dabei waren die Umsätze, zu denen
dieses Massaker stattfand, selbst für eine NASDAQ-Aktie selten
hoch: 61 Mio. Aktien, das entspricht einem Vielfachen des üblichen
Durchschnittsumsatzes, wurden gehandelt. Am nächsten Tag gab es
nochmal einen vergleichsweise kleinen Nachschlag auf 45 US$, auch
dieser erfolgte bei ungewöhnlich hohen Umsätzen (23 Mio. Aktien).
Kann das bereits das Ende des Kursschnitts gewesen sein? Selten
sind Korrekturen so schnell vorüber, doch kann aus kurzfristiger
Sicht von einem extrem überverkauften Zustand gesprochen werden.
Selbst wenn der Rutsch an der NASDAQ die logische Konsequenz der
im letzten 99er-Quartal entstandenen Überhitzung ist, so ist die
Begründung für den Einbruch der BMC-Aktie genauso eindeutig wie
unbefriedigend: Statt 53 US-Cents sollen nun nur ca. 42 US-Cents
Gewinn je Aktie im 3. Quartal erzielt werden. Na und?! Falls das
die einzige Überraschung sein sollte, wäre das Jahresergebnis um
5 % geschmälert. Dies rechtfertigt in keinem Fall einen derartigen
Kursverlust der Aktie.

[ladyb]

Ganz Deiner Meinung.
Bin zu 45 Euro rein.
Schlimmer kann es nicht werden!
Gruss ladyb

[zockerstudent]

Habe für 44,30 Euro welche ins Depot gelegt. An der Nasdaq schon wieder
erste starke Käufe. Hier jetzt weitere Infos:

Jede Menge Abstufungen aber schaut Euch den Aktienkursverlust an. Niemand
der Analysten rät zum Verkauf. Kursziele zwischen 55 - 75$. Alles was unter
50$ ist soll aggressiv gekauft werden. BMC SOFTWARE verdient immer noch
sehr gut und hätte bei 1,80 $ Gewinn ein KGV von unter 25. Das ist für einen
solchen Wert einfach total unterbewertet. Die Aussichten für 2000 liegen bei
2,20$ = KGV von unter 20. Ausserdem sind 100 Mio. Aktien in den letzten drei
Tagen gehandelt worden. Ein Überverkauf ist anzunehmen. Es ist auch immer
wieder zu beobachten, dass Werte ziemlich genau 50% Kursverlust hinnehmen
müssen und dann ein kurzer, schneller Anstieg einiges wieder wettmacht. Der
Höchstkurs lag bei 85$ und bei 42$ (also fast exakt - 50%) ist die Aktie wieder
stark gekauft worden an der Nasdaq. Momentan liegt der Kurs bei 43,125 und
ich sehe schnelle 20 - 30%. Die Gewinnwarnung kam in einem Zeitraum (Di.
04.01.2000) als die NASDAQ ihre bösen drei Tage hatte und man kann gewiss
von Panikverkäufen ausgehen. Das Unternehmen gibt am 25. Jan eine
Pressekonferenz und weitere Aussichten. Bis dahin könnten einige Anleger auf
gute News spekulieren und der Kurs wird wieder anziehen. Sollten dann die
Meldungen bestätigt werden und das Jahresergebnis 5% unter den Prognosen
liegen, dann wird sich jeder wieder auf die Aktie schmeissen. ICH SAGE
DESHALB KAUFEN und wem es bis zum 25. Jan zu heiss ist geht halt mit
20% Plus aus der Aktie heraus.

Euer Zockerstudent

[ladyb]

RESEARCH ALERT - BMC Software raised to buy

CHICAGO, Jan 10 (Reuters) - ABN AMRO analyst Robert Johnson on Monday raised his rating on business
software maker BMC Software Inc. (NasdaqNM:BMCS - news) to buy from outperform as Year 2000 issues for
the company dissipate.

--Y2K issues and the head of sales` planned departure may have played a significant role in the company`s
revenue shortfall, the analyst wrote in a research note.

--Last week, shares of BMC dropped more than 35 percent, after the company forecast disappointing fiscal third-quarter earnings because of
weakness in its North American market.

--``We are confident the revenue shortfall was not a result of competitive take-aways,`` Johnson wrote in a research note.

--Shares of Houston, Texas-based BMC were up 2-1/4 at 45-3/8 in afternoon trade on Nasdaq.

[ladyb]

Das sah doch schonmal nicht schlecht aus die letzten Tage.
Glaube wir haben da auf jeden Fall noch viel Luft nach oben!

Company Press Release

BMC Software`s PATROL for Lotus Domino Critical to
Ensuring E-Business Success

Solution Provides Customers with Maximum Levels of Availability and
Performance

ORLANDO, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 17, 2000----BMC Software Inc., (Nasdaq:BMCS - news), the leading provider of
solutions for application service assurance(TM) that ensure availability, performance and recovery of companies` business-critical
applications, today announced the newest version of its award-winning PATROL® for Lotus Domino. By measuring end-user
availability, the solution enables customers to better assess and deliver optimal end-to-end response times thereby guaranteeing
maximum levels of availability and performance. PATROL for Lotus Domino gives customers a competitive edge in today`s
e-business marketplace ensuring employees, partners, customers and suppliers can exchange information with each other anytime,
anywhere.

``In today`s aggressive e-business marketplace, delivering 24-hour e-vailability(TM) of messaging applications such as Lotus
Domino is critical,`` said Bob Kruger, vice president of E-business for BMC Software. ``This is the ideal solution for Lotus
customers who face the challenge of maximizing availability while minimizing risks such as administrative time and costs.
PATROL for Lotus Domino plays a key role in keeping e-business partners and customers communicating.``

PATROL for Lotus Domino provides strong platform support, differentiating itself within the industry by supporting AIX,
HP-UX, OS/2, Solaris and Microsoft Windows NT. In addition, PATROL for Lotus Domino features remote monitoring. This
feature benefits customers by allowing a user to set up PATROL for Lotus Domino on a supported platform and remotely monitor
a Lotus Domino Server running on a platform not natively supported. BMC Software also has enhanced the PATROL for Lotus
Domino product to monitor additional features of Lotus Domino R5 such as clusters and partitions.

In addition to its extensive reporting capabilities and breadth of platform support, some of the out-of-the-box monitoring
functions provided by PATROL for Lotus Domino include:
monitoring mail traffic between Domino servers; -- monitoring Domino event logs for error conditions; -- monitoring server
add-in tasks for availability and

performance and taking corrective action;
monitoring the size and white space of Notes databases; and -- monitoring the performance of the Domino processes.

PATROL for Lotus Domino solves customers` problems by accurately measuring end-user accessibility, monitoring availability
and creating a central point of control for administrative actions. This allows companies to add new technologies and manage them
immediately, without taking the time to develop new tools. Ultimately, employees can concentrate on their core competencies
which results in lower operating costs and increased revenue for the company.

PATROL for Lotus Domino has played a key role in ensuring e-vailability to customers of Interliant Inc. (Nasdaq:INIT - news), a
leading application service provider. ``By using the PATROL product from BMC Software to monitor the availability and
performance of their Lotus Notes solution, Interliant is able to deliver the high level of service demanded by our customers,`` said
Mike Kiefer, principal software architect for Interliant. ``Our customers expect 100 percent uptime. They expect that we will know
more about the applications than they do, and that we will find and fix problems proactively. BMC Software solutions guarantee
that we can keep our systems up and running and provide high-quality services to our customers.``

PATROL for Lotus Domino monitors end-to-end connectivity, giving administrators the ability to determine the actual time it
takes users to access a server and perform tasks such as opening a database or composing a document. Based upon the task
completion time, administrators can determine whether the server or the network is the basis of the problem.

PATROL for Lotus Domino also features an out-of-the-box reporting solution supplying more than 30 prewritten reports enabling
customers to view server, database, network, e-mail and web traffic performance. By viewing this information, IT professionals
can anticipate problems and proactively diminish slow performance or even correct problems before they effect the system.
Additionally, PATROL customers are able to create customized easy-to-use reports via a wizard interface.

Pricing and Availability

The newest version for PATROL for Lotus Domino will be generally available Jan. 25, 2000. PATROL for Lotus Domino`s newest
version will be offered at a special promotional price of $525 through March 31, 2000. The solution will be priced at $695
following the promotion. Specific platforms that PATROL for Lotus Domino supports include AIX 4.1, AIX 4.2, AIX 4.3, HP-UX
10.0, HP-UX 10.2, OS/2 Warp 3.0, OS/2 WARP 4.0, Solaris 2.4, Sun Solaris 2.5, Sun Solaris 2.6, Windows NT 4.0, Intel & Alpha
(SP4, SP5 and SP6).

About PATROL

BMC Software`s PATROL Application Management suite of products provides centralized control of applications and databases,
including configuration management solutions in a distributed computing environment. From a single graphical console, PATROL,
through loadable libraries of expertise called PATROL Knowledge Modules(TM) (KMs), helps proactively manage computers,
resources, databases and applications.

About BMC Software Inc.

BMC Software is the world`s leading provider of management solutions that ensure the availability, performance and recovery of
companies` business-critical applications. We call this application service assurance, and it means that the applications companies
and their customers rely on most stay up and running, around the clock. For more than 19 years, the world`s leading companies have
relied on BMC Software.

BMC Software is among the world`s largest independent software vendors, a Forbes 500 company and is a member of the S&P 500,
with fiscal year 1999 revenues exceeding $1.3 billion. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, with offices worldwide.
For more information, visit BMC Software`s Web site at http://www.bmc.com, or please call 800/841-2031 or 713/918-8800.

BMC Software, the BMC Software logos, and all other BMC Software product or service names are registered trademarks or
trademarks of BMC Software Inc. All other trademarks or registered trademarks belong to their respective companies. (c) 2000
BMC Software, Inc. All rights reserved.