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Taking stock of new economy

By Ivor Ries

The triumph of new-economy over old-economy stocks
that caught most of the country`s top fund managers by
surprise in 1999 becomes official next week when the
Australian Stock Exchange rejigs its major indices.

In a move that should be headed, "Out with the old, in with
the new", the new ASX indices promote a raft of
new-tech companies into the elite and relegate a number
of old-tech clunkers to the dustbin of index history.

Companies that are the major beneficiaries of the index
tinkering include the soon-to-merge Solution 6 and Sausage
Software, MYOB, Davnet, Keycorp, Melbourne IT, Open
Telecommunications and Secure Network Solutions.

If most of those companies mean nothing to you, you`re in
good company. Many of the companies being promoted to
the new ASX100 and ASX200 indices - likely to replace
the All Ordinaries Index as benchmarks of institutional
performance - are not household names.

Indeed, some of them, despite billion-dollar capitalisations,
are yet to reach their third birthdays and it will be quite a
few years before they pay a dividend.

The ASX`s index changes, because they create winners
and losers, have sparked controversy.

Those complaining the most are fund managers with
portfolios stuffed full of old-economy stocks and chief
executives of the same companies. Faced with a falling
share price as a result of exclusion from the new
benchmarks, some companies have become vulnerable to

Perhaps the most important change in the ASX indices is
the creation of two new ASX100 and ASX200 indices - to
be jointly designed by US ratings agency Standard&Poor`s
- that will edge out the old All Ordinaries Index as the
market bellweathers.

The ASX move to push the All Ords into retirement
(perhaps for a later burial, after a proper interval?)
represents a triumph of big institutional power over popular

Big institutions don`t like small stocks. They want to invest
only in the top 100 stocks, which make up 80-90 per cent
of market capitalisation, but they`ll invest in the top 200 if
they are in a mood to go slumming. Most big funds have
no more than 60-70 stocks at any one time. Having to
keep tabs on 250 stocks is just too tiresome.

For this reason, the institutions want to be judged against
the new ASX100 and ASX200 indices, not the old
"everyone gets a feed" All Ords. To speed its demise, the
All Ords has been loaded up with another 250 small-cap
stocks, which means it essentially becomes the ASX500.

It`s not just tiddlywinks companies that get the short straw
from the big index shakeout. Relatively well-known names
- Central Equity, Freedom Furniture, Harris Scarfe,
Spotless Services and Arthur Yates - all miss a mention in
the new bellweather indices. Hopefully such companies
have loyal small shareholders: most major institutions won`t
be bothering them from now on.

While the big institutions have had the victory they were
always going to have, the new index regime won`t be
without its challenges.

The inclusion of so many new-economy stocks on
stratospheric multiples - and media, telecommunications,
internet and technology stocks will be 35 to 38 per cent of
the ASX100 - will have old-style, number-crunching fund
analysts craving a Bex and a good lie down.

The massive weight of new-economy stocks in the new
bellweather index means that a whole new raft of
valuation skills will be required. Unfortunately, Australian
funds are chronically short of the analytical firepower
needed to tell a new-economy sheep from and
old-economy goat in drag.

The next big market shake-out will thus be ruinous for
several of the country`s top-20 equity managers: they`ll be
stuck with a book full of worthless goats.

While having to choose from 100 rather than 250-plus
stocks means much less analytical grunt work for the big
end of town, in this country`s small-capital pond, it may
also mean greater volatility and more risk. The full
consequences of the great index reshuffle will take some
time to emerge.

© This material is subject to copyright and any
unauthorised use, copying or mirroring is prohibited.
Soll ich jetzt noch kaufen was sagst du ,hmm weiss nicht so genau Bitte schreib mir mall ja Wäre echt Nett von dir .


oder loppi60@gmx.de

ist das jetzt eine gute nachricht wenn die in den "gewöhnlichen index" aufgenommen werden oder nicht. mein schulenglisch ist verdammt sche... und schon jahre her.

Wissen müsst IHR natürlich schon selbst, was ihr macht!!! Die Risiken sind
ja bekannt!! Genauso gut denke ich, dass man Davnet vielleicht sogar ein
bisschen längerfristig sehen muss, als nur einen Monat oder so!! Der Aktionär,
so habe ich gehört( ich weiß es also nicht 100%) soll diese Aktie morgen weiter
zum KAUF empfehlen!!Wenn ihr einsteigen wollt, dann würde ich kleine Positionen aus-
bauen,also nicht das ganze GELD einsetzten!! Ich persönlich habe "NUR"
370 AKTIEN von Davnet, aber in Anbetracht der Chancen sind davon 100-300% auch nicht schlecht!!
Sollte es in die andere Richtung gehen,hat man nur einen Teil seines Geldes
in den Wind gesetzt!! Wissen müsst ihr es aber selbst!!
Wenn ihr einsteigt, dann würde ich noch vor dem 6.April einsteigen,weil da
laut "DER AKTIONÄR" die Eingliederung in den all Ordinary INDEX stattfinden
MFG Saltus

PS Ich steh auch erst am ANFANG(obwohl ich mich schon länger mit Aktien befasse!)
und habe vor in den nächsten Jahren sehr viel Geld zu machen!! Um das
zu schaffen sollte man sein Auge auf der ganzen WELT haben,das man
trotz einer Korrektur(wie bei uns momentan)-egal wo sie stattfindet- weiterhin gutes Geld macht!!

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