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Nie mehr wieder 6000 Punkte im Dax? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite



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Keine Ahnung. Aber ich hab mir gestern und heute die Schwergewichte im Dax angeschaut, um mir eine Einschätzung zum Dax als Index erlauben zu können.

Das Fazit ist wie folgt:

Meine Daxputen, die ich eigentlich bei Unterschreiten der 5850 spätestens verkaufen wollte, werde ich wohl noch einige Tage im Depot behalten.

Die Gründe:

ADS: Doppeltop vollendet, sich davon schon leicht nach Süden abgesetzt, Ausbruch nach Unten steht unmittelbar bevor, kurzfristiges Kursziel 30 Euro

ALV: Doppeltop vor Abschluß, erster Move nach Unten steht unmittelbar bevor. Kurzfristiges Kursziel 120 Euro

BAS: Doppeltop nicht geschafft, vorher gescheitert, mit einem aufsteigenden Dreieck ist zu rechnen, Kurzfristiges Kursziel 63,50 Euro, mittelfristig 55 Euro, für Derivate aktuell noch nicht interessant, erst bei Ausbruch aus dem Dreieck nach Unten

CON: Arbeitet noch am Doppeltop, aufsteigendes Dreieck wahrscheinlich mit kurzfristigem Ausbruch nach Unten (dank des Gesamtmarktes). Falls kein Doppeltop, dann kurzfristig 72 Euro und evtl. Doppelbodenbildung, ansonsten erstmal ca. 95 Euro, anschließend runter

DCX: Wird sich wohl dem Gesamtmarkt nicht entziehen können, ansonsten läge aktuell eine gute Basis für steigende Kurse vor. Kursziel hier wahrscheinlich erstmal 35 Euro wegen Gesamtmarkt, langfristig aber einer der aussichtsreichsten Werte im Dax in Hinblick auf sein aktuelles Kursniveau

DBK: Doppeltop vor Abschluß, kurzfristiges Kursziel bestenfalls noch ca. 98 Euro, anschließend 82 Euro und evtl. Doppelbodenbildung - aber eher unwahrscheinlich, eher weiterer Absturz

DPW: Neutral, Risiko gering, Chancen aktuell gering. Sollte leicht besser laufen als der Gesamtmarkt

DTE: Der am schwersten einzuschätzende Daxwert, meiner Meinung nach aber auch gleichzeitig der langfristig aussichtsreichste. Kurzfristiges Abwärtspotenzial jedoch etwa bis 11,50 Euro - unter Berücksichtigung der zu erwartenden Gesamtmarktentwicklung

EON: Doppeltop abgeschlosen, Downmove gestartet, größtes Verlustrisiko im Dax neben RWE. Kurzfristiges Kursziel ca. 82 Euro, mit weiteren Abgaben ist anschließend zu rechnen

MUV2: Aktuell einer der aussichtsreichsten Werte im Dax, was die Charttechnik angeht. Fundamental meiner Meinung nach einer der übelsten Werte. Wage hier keine Kursziele. Ich meide diesen Wert aus Prinzip ebenso wie die DB1

RWE: Wie EON, Kursziel erstmal ca. 62 Euro, danach weiter runter

SAP: Neben der DTE aktuell der aussichtsreichste Wert im Dax. Wird aber bei einem miesen Umfeld auch erstmal unter die Räder kommen. Wage hier kein kurzfristiges Kursziel

SIE: Technisch ist hier die Welt in Ordnung, fundamental mittlerweile katastrophal. Hab sie noch im Depot, aber werde sie so bald als möglich entsorgen. Meine Erwartung: Bei einem anhaltend negativen Gesamtmarkt wird sie erstmal nicht so schlecht laufen wie der Gesamtmarkt und vergleichsweise leichte Kursverluste erleiden. Sobald jedoch die 62 Euro Marke unterschritten werden sollte, ist mit extremem Kursverlusten zu rechnen. Mein SL liegt deshalb bei 66 Euro. Schade drum. Unfähiges Management fährt Weltfirma nachhaltig gegen die Wand. Sehr traurig.

VOW: Doppeltop im Abschluß. Kurzfristiges Kursziel 51 Euro. Langfristig weniger.

----------

Für den Dax rechne ich deshalb grob geschätzt kurzfristig mit einem Stand unterhalb von 5000 Punkten, langfristig unterhalb von 4000 Punkten, da sich die mittelfristig entstehenden Abwärtstrends bis 5000 Punkte nicht mehr umkehren lassen. Die kommende Woche sollte einen Vorgeschmack darauf bringen, was uns bis Ende Dezember erwartet.

All meine optimistischeren Einschätzungen für den Dax und die Einzelwerte sind hiermit gestrichen.

Allen viel Erfolg und ein gutes Händchen in den kommenden Tagen.

:)
Klar werden wir wieder die 6000 im Dax sehen, wenn dieses Jahr nicht mehr, dann im 1. Q. 2007. Ein Doppeltop sehe ich bei keinem Daxwert, die meisten sind im intakten Aufwärtstrend. Das bischen rauf und runter ist normal, ein wirkliches Doppeltop wäre eine viel radikalere Bewegung auf einem anderen Niveau. Gerade die Schwergewichte E.ON, Allianz, Deutsche Bank, RWE, BASF sehen charttechnisch top aus. Auch Linde oder MAN verdauen nur noch den letzten Run, FMC und Bayer sind sogar schon höher als im Mai.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.154.552 von heuschrecker am 24.09.06 13:25:16

Probier's mal hiermit.... :)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.157.954 von procedo am 24.09.06 15:13:47Danke für den Tip. Habs gerade probiert und es wirkt scheinbar:

Der Dax wird wohl WESENTLICH besser laufen in den nächsten Wochen als der TecDax, der MDAX und der SDAX, wohl weil im Dax erst ca. ein Drittel der Werte eine gefährlich niedrige Eigenkapitalquote (ohne Berücksichtigung immaterieller Vermögenswerte) vorzuweisen hat.

:laugh:
nächste woche geht´s in keller
danach ´haben es wieder alle gewußt
:rolleyes:

also weltuntergangsscenarien von 4000 pkt spuke ich noch lange nicht interher.

was soll die aufregung.
der trendkanal ist doch prima und der peptember ist auch gut verlaufen.
dass es gerade was absackt ist doch völlig normal und ich hoffe sogar, dass der dax die 5700 nochmal trifft.

wenn er dann dreht steht doch einer endrally mit den starken monaten ab oktober nichts im wege.

ausserdem laufen wir erstmal den amis hinterher und ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass die wallstreet-mafia bei den schlechten wirtschaftlichen us-daten der letzten zeit es wagen die wirtschaft vor den kongresswahlen fallen zu lassen.

schaut euch doch nurmal den eurospot, das gold und das öl an. passt doch wie die butter aufs ei.

anfang nächsten jahres sieht die welt allerdings schon anders aus.
ich rechne mit steigendem euro, steigendem gold und fallenden märkten.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.169.146 von ditano am 24.09.06 19:42:42Naja. Als Weltuntergangsszenario würde ich einen Daxstand von 3800 absolut nicht bezeichnen. Eher als akzeptable Bewertung auf Basis der aktuellen Fundamentaldaten der 30 Daxunternehmen (wenn man sich zu den Optimisten zählt).

Letztlich spielts aber momentan keine Rolle, ob wir in 3 Monaten bei 3000, 4000 oder 5000 Punkten stehen. Wen interessiert das schon? Es ist eher interessant, ob wir erst die 6350 Punkte sehen oder die 5500. Und die Kernthese dieses Threads ist letztlich die, daß auf die 6350 keine Chancen mehr bestehen, dagegen 5500 und weniger höchst wahrscheinlich sind.

Darüber mag man jetzt noch lachen, zumal der Dax ja gerade erst vor ein paar Tagen die 5500 gesehen hat - wozu nochmal zurück also? Die einzige Antwort ist eigentlich auch schon gegeben: Das erste Mal unter 5500 war ein Testlauf. Das zweite Mal ist endgültig.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.171.147 von heuschrecker am 24.09.06 20:59:09oh, mich interessiert es sehr wohl und viel eher ob der DAX zuerst die 7000 oder die 4000 sieht...

Ich denke die 4000 sind für die Museumsausstellung gebucht...Sehen wir nie wieder.

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Wir können auch die 2000 nochmal sehen, so ist es ja nicht. Nie vergessen, daß die Deutschen Standardwerte extrem verschuldet sind. Schwache Wirtschaft und steigende Zinsen könnten da einiges anrichten.

Bei einer US-Rezession könnten die Zinsen OHNE LEITZINSERHÖHUNGEN!! 1-2% für Unternehmensanleihen steigen. Wer sich da refinanzieren muß, da sieht's übel aus.

Solange wir nicht über die alten Hochs gehen sind wir seit 2000 imer noch in einem Bärenmarkt.

Deswegen schwache Aktienmärkte.

Wer long-gehen will, soll bis November warten. Selbst Nov 1929 bis April 1930 sind die Kurse kräftigst (50%) gestiegen.

Längerfristig wird Öl fallen. Der Ölbullenmarkt ist vorbei. Entweder Öl fällt unter 30 oder Gold steigt über 1500.

Gruß
S.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.185.646 von Saccard am 25.09.06 14:57:56Ich glaube das letzte, was machen soll, ist zu warten bis neue AZHs erreicht werden. Entweder kann man feststellen, wann ein Bearmarket zu Ende gegengen ist, oder man läßt lieber die Hände vom Spekulieren. So ist meine Meinung. Dabei unterstelle ich mir nicht Unfehlbarkeit. Gut möglich, dass wir immer noch in Bearmarkt sind - aber dann doch so spekulieren. Abzuwarten, dass die Kurse auf AZH steigen (das wären locker 30% im DAX!), um daraus die Erkenntnis zu gewinnen (und die Mut), jetzt ist es keine Baisse mehr - das ist einfach zu spät.

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Wieso 30%???

Dax ATH 8.064,97 7. März 2000. $7731,18

9. Mai 2006 immerhin 6.140,72, also $7819,39

Demnach haben wir immerhin in US$ ein höheres Hoch hingelegt was für mich auch erstmal nur heißt, daß es in US$ nicht unter 2200 geht.

USA mit dem S&P.. ich erwarte, daß die alten Tiefs unterboten werden - schon sehr bald, vielleicht sogar noch in 2007. Und das es dann nochmal eine kräftige Bärenmarktrally gibt bevor das finale Tief erreicht wird.

Im schlimmsten Fall kann das ganze noch bis 2030 weiter vor sich herdümpeln. Japan ist ja auch ncith wieder auf die Beine gekommen. Ab 2010 wirken die Babyboomer nicht mehr positiv für die Wirtschaft und Aktienmärkte, ab da dürfte es Inflation geben und somit niedrigere KGVs. Inflationsbereinigt könnte der Bärenmarkt dann bis 2030 dauern.

Für Trader / Spekulanten mit Sicht von 3-5 Jahren gibt's natürlich was zu verdienen, wer 20 Jahre halten will wird kein Glück haben.

Gruß
S.
Die Frage ist ja eigentlich, ob der DAX überhaupt ein richtiger Index ist???

Ist der heutige Dax überhaupt noch mit dem aus dem Jahre 2000 vergleichbar? Und sowas wie einen Transpartation Index gibt es hier ja auch nicht.. Dow Theory kann man hier jedenfalls vergessen.

Das sinnvollste für die nächste Jahre wird m.E. das Spielen der Ratios sein. Gold wird besser Abschneiden als Öl. Wachstumswerte (echte wie J&J, Microsoft usw.) besser als Zykliker wie Maschinenbauer, Autowerte, Rohstoffkonzerne.

Lieber einen Wachstumswert mit KGV 20 als einen Zykliker mit KGV 10. Deswegen mag ich die scheinbar niedrigen KGVs der Indizes ja auch nicht.

Gruß
S.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.191.846 von Saccard am 25.09.06 19:33:51Das ist auch das gute an Indizes – sie haben einen positiven bias, indem sie ihre Zusammensetzung sukzessive in Richtung erfolgreiche Unternehmen ändern.

Die Buy-and-Hold Strategie funktioniert auch nicht so richtig einfach mit irgendwelchen Aktien. Hätte man etwa die Dow-Aktien vor längerer Zeit einfach mal gekauft und gehalten, würde man schlechter abschneiden als der Index (ich hab mal ein solches Performance-Tracking gelesen).

Buy-and-Hold bezieht sich vielmehr auf das allgemeine Aktienniveau, sprich auf den Gedanken, dass dieses einigermaßen den wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt wiedergeben wird. Und breite Indizes sind mit das beste, womit man bequem darin investieren kann. Hier bin ich mir ziemlich sicher, dass in 20 Jahren wir nicht auf dem heutigen Stand verharren werden. Ein Dow auf 50.000 wäre eher wahrscheinlich.

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Genau, Dow 50000 ca. 2030 ist für mich ausgemachte Sache, ab 2010 geht es richtig zur Sache.

Allerdings erwarte ich dann auch einen Goldpreis von $50000.

Da Gold mit $580 jetzt bedeutend billiger als der Dow mit $11575 ist würde ich für langfristige Optimisten Gold vorschlagen.

Gruß
S.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.207.802 von Saccard am 26.09.06 14:01:24hoffentlich machst du nur scherze mit deinem gold auf $50.000 (auch wenn du dich um eine Null vertippt hast, ist zuviel)
Gold 73640 und Dow 129600 - alles natürlich bis zum 23. Dezember 3015 - versteht sich von selbst!;)
Wieso? Gold:Dow = 1:1, war bisher immer so. 1932, 1980..

Wann wird das Ratio erreicht? Wenn der Bärenmarkt zu Ende ist. Wann ist er zu Ende? Wenn die Baby Boomer ihre von 1980 - 2010 gekauften Investments aufgelöst haben. 2030.

Den Dow kann man sich ganz einfach ausrechnen. KGV 10 in 2030. 3% Gewinnsteigerung real pro Jahr, ihr wisst ja dann welche Inflationsrate ich angenommen habe.

Gruß
S.
3015 ist natürlich auch ein interessanter Zeitpunkt. Dann dürfte nämlich das 2. Mittelalter so langsam vorbei gehen und die Menschheit ihren heutigen Lebensstandard langsam zurückerlangen.

Gruß
S.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.211.500 von Saccard am 26.09.06 16:27:35Das mit den Baby Boomers ist häufig propagiert - glaube ich aber überhaupt nicht. Die Aktienkurse richten sich langfristig - und hier kann nur um eine langfristige perspektive die Rede sein (weil demographische Entwicklungen) - nach den Gewinnen (um vielleicht die wichtigste Größe zu nennen).

Wenn Du behauptest, dass im Zuge der demographischen Entwicklung die Gewinne der Unternehmen fallen werden, dann kann ich dir recht geben. Aber dass die Aktien deswegen fallen, weil die Baby Boomers ihre Investments auflösen würden (eine in der Form ziemlich unsichere Sache), sehe ich nicht - solange die Gewinne stehen wird sich Geld finden (die Fed ist ja da :) ), um günstig bewertete Aktien zu kaufen.

Nicht zu vergessen, dass etliche Länder dieser Welt kapitalstärker werden und für die - angeblich - ausfallende Nachfrage sorgen könnten.

www.boersennotizbuch
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.154.552 von heuschrecker am 24.09.06 13:25:16Moin,

also morgen wäre ein passender Tag, die 6000er Marke ins Visier zu nehmen.

Gruss, der blaue Planet :rolleyes:

P.S.: Im Daily steht noch ein GAP bei ca. 6047 P. offen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.220.453 von der.blaue.Planet am 26.09.06 22:28:24Das ist richtig. Trotz des ganzen Mülls im Dax siehts für morgen recht positiv aus.

Mal sehen, was man daraus machen wird.
Dindingding - heute morgen um rund 10 Uhr war der Dax wieder über 6000 Punkten.

:eek:
die durable goods negativ statt + 0,8, die hypothekenanträge rückläufig ... yeah, auf ins alltimehigh. wir stehen auf januar 2000 level im DOW - nur dass damals der traum von immerwährendem reichtum in den köpfen sass und keine wirtschaftsabschwächung gefeiert wurde. naja, was windowdressing so alles möglich macht. :D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.232.141 von nachtschatten am 27.09.06 14:47:35Jetzt wird jede Rezession gefeiert, weil nach jeder Rezession
ein witschaftlicher Aufschwung kommt.:D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.232.141 von nachtschatten am 27.09.06 14:47:35Seit dem sind knapp 7 Jahre vergangen - es hat sich einiges bei den Gewinnen getan, einiges bei den Zinsen. Das, was damals durch die Ewig-Boom-Fantasien (die sich im Dow gar nicht sooo ausgetobt haben, vgl. Nasdaq) eingepreist wurde, ist jetzt eigentlich Realität. Nur, jetzt fehlt ziemlich jede Boom-Fantasie - das ist der Unterschied.

Window dressing hat damit wenig zu tun. Vielleicht gibt es sogar window cleaning, wissen kann man es nicht so genau...

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.255.511 von saviano am 28.09.06 11:15:31
naja, die zinsen stehen auch wieder dort, wo sie vor sieben jahren standen, nur dass das umfeld damals ein etwas anderes war: höheres wachstum (GDP, payrolls, etc) und keine wirtschaftsabschwächung, die mehr oder weniger vor der tür stand. dass momentan schlechte wirtschaftsdaten entweder ignoriert oder als zinsentspannend gefeiert werden, kann man wahrscheinlich mit der euphoriephase von damals vergleichen.

sei's wie es sei: auf jeden fall völlig faszinierend, was der DOW seit mitte juli absolviert hat, 1000 punkte in gut 50 handelstagen ist wirklich keine schlechte leistung - wir werden ab nächster woche, und dann vor allem mit beginn der earningsseason ab dem 10. oktober ja sehen, ob es jetzt bis jahresende so weitergeht oder die letzten tage einfach die vorgezogenene weihnachtsralley waren.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.257.023 von nachtschatten am 28.09.06 12:54:59ein Teil war vorgezogen, schaut euch die Perfoormance nach 12 Monaten an...da ist Abverkauf angesagt, bevor es wieder nachhaltig hoch geht...

die BILD hat auch schon wieder zum Einstige geraten, wie voriges Jahr, nur diesmal früher - sobald der Geldfluss aus dem Private-bereich einsetztt, werden einige auf Kosten dieser reduzieren - und wenn Weihnachten Kasse gemacht werden soll, purzelts nochmal - umm dann im Januar 2007 diesmal wieder billig einzusammeln...


Fazit: kurzer Anstieg noch, danach abwärts durch Auslösen SL´s, Window-dressing und -cleaning ist durch, danach wieer kurz hoch
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.257.314 von normalus am 28.09.06 13:10:56Wenn die BILD Kleinanleger zum Kauf von Aktien (indirekt)
auffordert, heißt es noch lange nicht, dass diese
der Aufforderung sofort folgen werden.

Die Bildzeitung soll lediglich das Interesse der Kleinanleger
auf die Börse lenken.
Das ist aber, wie Du richtig festgestellt hast, ein
Hinweis darauf, dass einige "Nicht-Kleinanleger" aus den
Aktien raus wollen.

Um aber die Aktien an den Mann bzw. Frau zu bringen,
müssen die Grossen einen Köder auslegen, und das sind
an der Börse einzig und alleine steigende Kurse
bei möglichst geringer Vola.

Das aber wird bereits seit 5730 Punkten praktiziert. D.h. der
nächste Ausflug Richtung Süden steht unmittelbar bevor.
Ich wünsche den Reiselustigen viel Spass und decke mich
schon mal mit ein Paar Bear-Zertis ein:D
prust, klar auf ins alltimehigh ... kommt immer drauf an, was man gerade raucht, oder?

:D

ECONOMIC REPORT
GDP revised down to 2.6% rate in the second quarter

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Sep 28, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Second quarter U.S. growth increased at a 2.6% rate, slightly lower than previous estimates of a 2.9% growth rate, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
The downward revision was unexpected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been forecasting second-quarter GDP to remain unrevised at a 2.9% rate. See Economic Calendar.
Economic growth has averaged a 3.6% rate over the past four quarters. The economy expanded at a 5.6% rate in the first quarter.
The revisions to second-quarter GDP were largely due to lower inventory investment and a worsening trade balance.
Final sales of domestic product increased 2.1%, down from 2.3% in the previous estimate.
As in the previous estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product, consumer spending was the main engine of growth, rising at a 2.6% annual pace. But this is down from an increase of 4.8% in the first quarter.
There were signs of a weaker economy. Spending on software and equipment fell 1.4%, the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2002.
And residential investment, reflecting the slumping housing market, fell 11.1%, the largest decline in 11 years.
Inflation
Key inflation data were revised marginally lower. The core inflation measure, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.7% in the second quarter, down from 2.8% reported earlier. The year-over-year change was revised down to 2.2% from the previous estimate of 2.3%. This is still above the Fed's comfort zone of 1% to 2%.
Profits
Corporate profits were revised lower to an increase of 1.4%, compared with the previous estimate of a 3.2% increase. This is the smallest gain in quarterly profits since the third quarter of 2005. In the past year, before-tax profits are up 18.5%.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B92A…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.257.023 von nachtschatten am 28.09.06 12:54:59tja, nicht ganz (die zinsen) - außerdem sollte man auch das Geschehen zwischendurch nicht völlig außer acht lassen - die Börse ist keine Momentaufnahme, vielmehr Prozesse (denke ich mir). Dass der Markt förmlich überflutet war mit Liquidität, die die Aktien aber nur wenig absorbiert haben, ist auch ein Punkt, oder...

Der kommende Abschwung, weil so allseitig als ausgemachte Sache betrachtet, ist eher positiv im Vergleich zu 2000. Damals war kein Abschwung in Sicht und die Kurse konnten völlig ungehindert davonfliegen. Jetzt sind sie auf jeden Fall näher zum Boden als damals. -- mehr als 30% können wir also nicht fallen -- wenn das eine Beruhigung ist -- möglicher Strass-Test sehe ich persönlich bei max. bis zu 10-15%. Wenns hart kommt.

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.265.692 von saviano am 28.09.06 20:13:12nie wieder, nie...

Der Thread hat aber ganze 4 Tage seine Aktualität behalten...

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.287.358 von saviano am 29.09.06 19:10:48Heuschrecker muss sich erstmal vom Schreck erholen ! :laugh:

Wie wär´s dann mit einem Thread "Nie weider 7000 Punkte im Dax"
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.258.098 von nonkeynes2 am 28.09.06 13:53:35Da ist was dran, gib mal ein paar vernünftige Zertis ?:confused:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.288.469 von 08097 am 29.09.06 19:46:35Der Dow geht heute noch mächtig in die Grütze und Montag kracht es dann im Dax.:D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.287.466 von renuener am 29.09.06 19:14:08Weniger Schrecken, eher Verwunderung. Muß man sich die Augen reiben, wenn man die Bilanzen der 30 Daxwerte kennt und dann den Stand von 6000 sieht. Anschließend kann ich nur noch den Kopf schütteln.

:laugh:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.294.406 von heuschrecker am 29.09.06 22:28:08So ? Die Bilanzen sind bei doch recht vielen Firmen auf Rekordkurs. Viele große Übernahmen, die hauptsächlich cash bezahlt werden, lassen die Gewinne pro Aktie weiter steigen. Die Nettoverschuldung der Unternehmen legt aber trotzdem im Gegensatz zu den Gewinnen im niedrigeren Tempo zu (Ausnahmen wie DCX, gibt es immer).

Ausserdem haben wir 8 laue Jahre hinter uns. 1999 - 2006. Der Dow bricht gerade aus, also für langfristig orientierte Zykliker die an 8 Jahres Rhytmusse glauben ein ideales Szenario. Demnach stehen uns 8 Boomjahre bevor. Mal sehen !
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.295.398 von renuener am 29.09.06 22:45:51Gerade die Übernahmen haben die Bilanzen versauert. Die für Cash oder gegen Aktien durchgeführten Übernahmen führen ja dazu, daß wertloses immaterielles Vermögen gegen kurzfristig verfügbare Vermögensgegenstände eingetauscht wird/wurde. Hinzu kommt, daß fast alle Daxunternehmen nur Schrottfirmen aufkaufen mit überdimensionalen Schulden und verheerenden Bilanzen (wie bei RWE, DTE , DCX, TUI z.B. passiert) oder völlig überbewertete Unternehmen (wie bei z.B. BAY und DB1 passiert).

Die Bilanzen haben sich verschlechtert: echte Vermögenswerte wurden gegen heiße Luft eingetauscht und zusätzlich gabs noch Schulden oder verlustbringende/investitionsintensive (weil die ursprünglichen Besitzer jahrelang auf Investitionen verzichtet haben) Unternehmensteile hinzu.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.295.742 von heuschrecker am 29.09.06 22:52:40Die DPW hab ich auch vergessen, was Verschuldung und immaterielles Vermögen angeht.

ALV & MUV2 - nur auf dem Papier gibts hier noch eine Eigenkapitalquote. Die Rentenpapiere kauft denen ja niemand mehr ab, müßten die mal liquidiert werden. Versicherungen und Banken sind ja mittlerweile die Bagholder für Staatsanleihen.

IFX - Reine Geldverbrennung, dafür vergleichsweise unbedeutend

...

im Prinzip egal. Der Dax könnte auch bis 20000 laufen und dann einbrechen - wenn auch höchst unwahrscheinlich.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.295.742 von heuschrecker am 29.09.06 22:52:40Sieh doch nicht alles so negativ. Die Qualität der Übernahmen und möglichen Übernahmen hat sich bei Dax Werten gerade in den letzten 2-3 Jahren verbessert. DaimlerChrysler ist in den Neunziger Jahren verbrochen worden und TUI als weiteres von dir genanntes Beispiel ist doch als Firma total unbedeutend und bald auch die längste Zeit im Dax gewesen. Derren Börsenwert kann ja nicht vielmehr als 4 Mrd Euro sein.

Endesa ist alles andere als Schrott, nur der Preis ist ewtas hoch. Vor 3 Jahren hätte noch keiner eine derartige Fusion für möglich gehalten. MAN und Scania, wenns denn klappt auch durchweg positiv. Linde, FMC haben durch gelungene Übernahmen ihre Weltmarktführerschaft errungen. Warum soll dass jetzt das Ende der Fahnenstange sein ?
Und zu guter letzt kommen wir noch zu den Unternehmen, die über die Jahre möglichst nur das Minimum investiert haben (und auch teilweise notwendige Rückstellung nicht gebildet haben), um ihre Unternehmensgewinne kurzfristig außerordentlich steigen zu lassen, wie z.B. EON, RWE, BASF, TKA, DCX, VOW, SIE.

Hab ich bald alle? Egal.

Noch zwei Lichtblicke:

SAP scheint mir sauber, dafür aber teuer.
DTE trotz anstehender Investitionen u.a. bei T-Mobil und Probleme mit der Konkurrenz und dem Regulierer langfristig wohl eines der besten Daxunternehmen

----

Und die zwei großen Neuzugänge? Die stehen auf meiner Ignoreliste - erstmal für die nächsten 5 Jahre. Sollten sie dann noch im Dax sein könnten sie evtl. ausreichend fair bewertet sein.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.296.700 von renuener am 29.09.06 23:10:42Ok. Sehe ichs mal positiv:

Die Bewertung wird sich langfristig am inneren Wert der Unternehmen orientieren.

:D
So ein Index reinigt sich praktisch selbst, da immer wieder schlecht performende Firmen rausfliegen werden (Altana, bald Tui) und aufstrebende Firmen neu reinkommen (Postbank). Wirklich langfristig kann der garnicht fallen. Es sei denn, du glaubst an das Ende des Kapitalismus. Eine Volkswirtschaft muss garnicht mal wachsen, damit der Index steigt, es müssen nur immer mal die Firmen ausgetauscht werden. Aufstrebende Branchen rein, alte raus.

In den nächsten Jahren würde ich auf jeden Fall nicht auf fallende Kurse spekulieren. Wir befinden uns in Europa gerade erst am Anfang einer expansiven Geldpolitik nach dem Vorbild der USA. Da wird noch Geld gedruckt werden, dass einem Hören und Sehen vergeht, allein der Public Private Partnership Markt wird explodieren müssen. Die ganze Privatisierung öffentlicher Infrastruktur endet doch nicht bei Post und Telekom.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.297.765 von renuener am 29.09.06 23:30:50So ähnlich sehe ich das auch. Der Dax30 ist so eine Art Müllverbrennungsanlage (da fällt mir dann immer gleich MLP ein - merkwürdig). Brennen wirds immer, nur der Brennstoff wechselt von Zeit zu Zeit.

Die DTE wirds hoffentlich noch lange aushalten, bevor nur noch Rauch und Asche zurückbleibt.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.296.330 von heuschrecker am 29.09.06 23:03:53dann einbrechen auf ... hm ... 18000?

in einem vorigen posting war die rede von 8 jahren boom. das ist etwas gewagt - obwohl durchaus möglich - - -

bedenkt, dass sich die welt eigentlich in einem fast ungesehenem produktivitätsrausch und großem politisch-ökonomischen wandel befindet: dieser ist zwar nicht von gestern, und glaube hat uns eine menge der gewinne in den 90er gebracht, geht aber weiter mit recht großen schritten.

Wovon ich rede? - alte utopien, planwirtschaften und diktaturen öffnen sich. In China und Indien, Russland und Osteuropa, auch in Lateinamerika (obwohl nie wirklich sozialistisch) wird immer mehr Marktwirtschaft präsent. Dies setzt große Produktivitätspotenziale frei. Unter dem Strich wird die Welt unweigerlich reicher - die Verteilungsfrage ist insoweit nebensächlich, dass man durch international agierende Firmen mehr oder weniger am globalen Wachstum teilnehmen kann, an dem "Unter-dem-Strich" quasi.

Ich sehe noch nicht bald die Abschöpfung dieser Potenziale. Zumindest glaube ich, dass wir uns immer noch in einem zyklischen Aufschwung befinden, der noch das eine oder andere Jahr andauern soll.

Dann sollen wir auch den lieben DAX auf ATH gesehen haben.

www.boersennotizbuch.de
einfach nur genial - Bernankes substantial correction is underway in the housing market als auslöser für ein kursfeuerwerk. also auf zu neuen höhen - die zinssenkung steht vor der tür, auch wenn morgen die EZB erstmal die zinsen erhöht :D


Rate Cut Speculation Lifts DJIA Futures To All-Time High

10/04/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Taking comfort from the words of the nation's top central banker, traders on Wednesday sent futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level ever for a front-month contract.

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 index climbed to a multi-year high as well.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking in Washington, said a "substantial correction" is underway in the housing market. Bernanke's toughest language yet in describing the housing slowdown bolstered speculation that the Fed will begin to lower interest rates, perhaps this year, but more likely in 2007.

In fact, futures markets are pricing in a 4.5% federal funds rate at the end of 2007, three-quarters of a percentage point below the current 5.25%.

"Traders are centering on the possibility of easier credit next year and are ignoring the negatives of potentially slower growth in the economy," said Alan Bush, a futures analyst and vice president for AG Edwards.

The December DJIA contract at the Chicago Board of Trade soared to a high of 11915 Wednesday afternoon, topping the previous high of 11853 established in January 2000.

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, futures on other stock indexes surged as well, with December S&P's posting a contract high of 1359.00, marking the highest level for a front-month S&P contract since February 2001.

Helping fuel the rally, floor sources reported stop-loss buying above the September high of 1350.70 and the previous contract high of 1353.80, set on May 5.

Stop-loss buying takes place when traders who are short the market - those expecting prices would move lower - buy futures to cut their losses.

S&P's are the most actively traded among stock index futures. Just before Wednesday's close, volume for the electronically-traded December E-mini S&P 500 had reached nearly 1.3 million contracts, considered very heavy, according to market sources.

E-mini S&P contracts are one-fifth the value of regular-size S&P contracts. E-mini's are aimed at attracting retail traders or smaller-scale investors.
Damit der Thread nicht ganz so negativ bleibt - eine ziemlich optimistische Vision:

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.410.333 von heuschrecker am 04.10.06 23:19:13Die Vision teile ich, nur ich würde das "ziemlich" streichen - denn meine "ziemlich optimistische" vision landed bei 10-12 T bis 2009-2010...:)

Grüsse

www.boersennotizbuch.de
... recent gains in U.S. stocks could be out of line with fundamentals ... und das von eimen finanzminister. naja, nach der OPEC outputkürzung heute werden zumindest die ölwerte fliegen ;)



DJ Japan MOF Watanabe:Watching If Euro/Yen Moves Volatile

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's top currency bureaucrat said Thursday that Japanese officials are watching whether the euro's moves against the yen are volatile and whether they are in line with economic fundamentals.

"We are aware that the euro is trading around Y149.00-Y150.00, but what's more important is to monitor these currency moves to see if they are volatile and if they reflect economic fundamentals," Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Hiroshi Watanabe told reporters.

"We don't speak out about currencies based solely on a specific level," he said.

Around 0915 GMT Thursday, the euro was quoted at Y149.49. Recently, Japanese financial officials and their European counterparts have expressed concern about the euro's value versus the yen, as it remains near its all-time high of Y150.73, set in August.

Watanabe also said he expects the current slowdown in the U.S. economy to be "mild" but said recent gains in U.S. stocks could be out of line with fundamentals.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Wednesday at its highest level on record, partly due to expectations that U.S. interest rates won't rise further.

"There are indicators that capture the state of the whole economy, such as gross domestic product, and there are indicators that look at a narrow measure of industrial performance, such as the Dow 30," Watanabe said.

"We have to always keep in mind that the two aren't always linked to each other," he said.


Watanabe told reporters that the recent declines in oil futures show energy prices are "calming down." He added that he doesn't expect oil prices to spike during the northern hemisphere winter, although he didn't elaborate on the reasons for this.

Watanabe also said he hoped to arrange a meeting between Japan's new Finance Minister Koji Omi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in the near future.

Such a meeting might take place before the Group of 20 summit - an international gathering of finance and monetary officials from large economies - convenes in November, Watanabe said.
DJ Fed's Plosser: Current Inflation Cause For 'Concern'

PHILADELPHIA (Dow Jones)--The newly installed president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia used his first major address on the economy Thursday to fret over inflation and to warn that the central bank may have to raise rates again.

The bank's president, Charles Plosser, said "there is some cause for concern" on the inflation front. "Despite recent hopeful news on the inflation front, the inflation outlook remains uncertain" and "there is a significant possibility that inflation rates will remain above those consistent with price stability for some time."

This has implications for monetary policy. "While the Fed must keep a careful eye on the pace of economic activity and be prepared to adjust its policy in either direction, the predominant risks - and the attendant economic costs - are on the inflation side," Plosser said.

"So we need to remain vigilant and recognize that maintaining the current stance of policy, or even firming further, may be in the best interests of the economy's long run performance," the central banker said.

Put another way, "if unacceptably high rates of inflation persist or public confidence in long-run price stability seems to diminish," Plosser said, "additional monetary policy tightening may be necessary."

Plosser's comments were in a text to be delivered before a luncheon of the Chartered Financial Analysts of Philadelphia. He is not currently a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee. That group meets later this month in a gathering most economists expect will result in steady monetary policy, with the bank's overnight target rate holding at 5.25%.

Plosser's suggestion that monetary policy may have to be tightened will be tough news for a bond market that has increasing priced in the chance the Fed will soon be cutting rates in response to a slowing economy. In a speech Wednesday Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn added a note of puzzlement over the bond market's current sentiment. Earlier that same day, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said he remains concerned about inflation, even as he expects it to trend lower over time.

Plosser used a considerable portion of his speech to discuss his approach to monetary policy. He said "price stability is and should be the primary focus of monetary policy." He added, "a credible commitment to price stability is an essential part of effective monetary policy."

Price stability "is also the most effective way monetary policy can contribute to economic conditions that foster our other two objectives: maximum employment and moderate long-term interest rates," Plosser said.

The bank president said the Fed has largely been successful in its mission. "The FOMC has been able to anchor expectations in a relatively narrow range in recent years by taking actions to keep inflation relatively low and by communicating the rationale for its policy decisions," he said.

The official also said "monetary policy cannot control output or employment in the short-run, but it should respond to changing economic conditions." But, "monetary policy should not be overly sensitive to short-run fluctuations," Plosser explained.

Plosser's take on the economy was in line with other central bank officials. He said "economic growth has moderated as expected, from the rapid pace we saw in the first half of the year," adding "I expect growth to remain modest in the second half of the year and accelerate to trend in 2007."

Plosser noted that "given the strength in the housing market in recent years, the slowdown is not unexpected, nor is it in my view unwelcome."

He said "the housing sector is going through a painful, but necessary, adjustment and this has slowed overall growth somewhat of late.

"But the expansion is still on firm footing, and growth is likely to accelerate in 2007," Plosser added. He said that "outside of housing and autos, other sectors of the economy are performing well."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.417.626 von nachtschatten am 05.10.06 12:38:28"... recent gains in U.S. stocks could be out of line with fundamentals ... und das von eimen finanzminister".

Klares Kaufsignal ;)

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.410.333 von heuschrecker am 04.10.06 23:19:13Ich fine deinen Chart auch nicht besonders optimistisch. 2010 nur 6500 -7000 Punkte ? :rolleyes: Eigentlich unmöglich, denn sollte der Dax in 4 Jahren nur 10 % über dem heutigen Stand sein, wären die Dax Firmen dermaßen billig, dass sie in der Zwischenzeit übernommen worden wären bzw. dann ausnahmslos Übernahmeziele sind. Am Beispiel Schering oder Endesa sieht man, was eine Übernahme kurzfristig bewirkt. Also entweder die Rationalisierung + Globalisierung --> Gewinnsteigerungen --> Aktienrally geht weiter oder 90 % aller Dax Firmen werden mit sattem Aufschlag übernommen. So oder so sehe ich mindestens 50 % Potential für den Dax bis 2010.
hey wie wärs mit ölwerten ? scheinen wieder eine erfrischende perspektive zu haben ;)


Iran Pres: Will Answer Sanctions With Sanctions -Report

10/09/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday said Iran would retaliate with sanctions if sanctions were imposed on the country, according to a report by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

"If the enemies of the Iranian nation impose (additional) sanctions on Iran, we will also impose sanctions on them," Ahmadinejad said, IRNA reported.

The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to discuss possible sanctions against Tehran this week.

Ahmadinejad's remarks came as he spoke to reporters who asked him to comment on the possibility that sanctions may be imposed on Iran, the IRNA report said.

Ahmadinejad stressed that sanctions would have no impact on the country's decision to access peaceful nuclear technology, the report said.

On Friday, the six countries at the center of efforts to persuade Iran to drop uranium enrichment, a key step toward making nuclear weapons, said they have agreed to discuss possible sanctions.

However, the six stopped short of demanding Iran be punished by the U.N. Security Council. The countries include all five permanent security council members - the U.S., France, the U.K., Russia and China - and Germany.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.525.683 von nachtschatten am 09.10.06 21:16:39man muss nicht unbedingt auf entschuldigungen für die (ansonsten reine) spekulation setzen - dies in Bezug auf steigenden ölpreis.

die ölwerte (wenn du jetzt nicht gerade windige öl exploration firmen meinst) sind eher in ordnung - mit den heutigen öl-preisen (und selbst zu tieferen öl-preisen) verdienen sie schon recht gut.

Zwei sachen, die ich beachten würde: 1. die spekulation sucht sich was "more sexy" (im moment nicht gerade stark in sicht, trotz YouTube etc.); 2. wie stark haben sich die firmen in investitonsprojekten engagiert (die gefährlicherweise mit hohen ölpreisen funktionieren) - das letzte habe ich leider nicht recherchiert...

Macht das überhaupt Sinn?

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.541.672 von saviano am 10.10.06 19:09:01
momentan gibts eine ziemliche fixierung auf das ominöse OPEC-meeting ... das meeting kommt ... das meeting kommt nicht ... das meeting kommt vielleicht ...

der iran ist derzeit überhaupt kein thema, aber was nicht durch die medien geschleift wird, passiert einfach nicht - sollten freitag tatsächlich sanktionen beschlossen werden und der Iran seinerseits mit sanktionen antworten (und ich gehe mal nicht davon aus, dass die iraner den pistazienexport drosseln), kann öl wieder eine ziemlich rasante geschichte werden - kongresswahl hin oder her.

im ölbereich gefallen mir die ETFs am besten, verringert einfach die gefahr eines fehlgriffs in einen einzelnen laden (auch wenn manchmal ein schneller ritt mit so einer aktie durchaus spass machen kann), meine persönlichen lieblinge fürs traden:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OIH

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=xle

schwerpunkt bei beiden ist der service- u ausrüstungsbereich, bei beiden gibts ein hohes handelsvolumen u schöne intradaybewegungen.

grüsse - cooles weblog hast du !
Lacker ist auch so ein typischer -in-die-suppe-spucker ... Bush wird ihn demnächst nach alaska verbannen :D


Lacker:Rate Hikes Needed If Inflation Stays Where It Is


Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker on Wednesday warned against allowing inflation to remain at current elevated levels, saying it could feed into price expectations.

"Should inflation persist around the current elevated level, firmer monetary policy would be required to restore price stability," Lacker said in prepared remarks to the District of Columbia Chamber of Commerce.

Lacker was relatively upbeat about the economic outlook, saying that while the drag from housing is "significant" and may lead to "below average" growth "for a time," the economy remains supported by "reasonably good" consumer and business spending.

Lacker was the sole dissenter in the Fed's last two decisions to keep the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%. Each time, Lacker preferred an increase in the fed funds rate of 25 basis points.

Prior to the August Fed meeting, the central bank had raised rates 17-straight times in 25-basis-point increments.

Lacker's comments Wednesday suggest his dissenting views haven't changed since the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 20.

The FOMC meets Oct. 24-25, and is widely expected to hold rates steady again.

Underlying inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, the Fed's preferred gauge, is running at a 2.5% annual rate, Lacker noted, which is above the Fed's understood 1% to 2% comfort zone.

Lacker prefers that inflation stay near the midpoint of that range, 1.5%.

He added that inflation is "likely to moderate" in the near term but "there is some uncertainty as to how long that will take."

Thus, the Fed must stay "quite vigilant" on inflation, Lacker said, since if inflation stays above target too long, "inflation expectations could become centered around the higher rate."

Lacker said inflation expectation measures suggest market participants don't foresee a quick retreat in core inflation.

On the housing sector, which the Fed has cited as a main drag on the economy," Lacker said that while "some further retrenchment" is likely, he doesn't expect a "catastrophic collapse" since job and income fundamentals remain sound.

And given the "reasonably good" outlook for consumer and business spending, the economy should transition to its trend rate of growth of around 3%, he said.

Turning to labor markets, Lacker said that while the 118,000 average monthly pace of job creation over the past six months "sounds low," it's actually in line with the trend growth needed to absorb new entrants in the labor force.
die FOMC minutes:


*DJ FOMC Minutes: Core Inflation 'Undesirably High'

*DJ FOMC: Econ Growth 'Continuing To Moderate'

*DJ FOMC: Housing In Particular Continuing To Moderate

*DJ FOMC: 'Most' Said Lower Inflation 'Most Likely Outcome'

*DJ FOMC:Inflation Drop Likely 'Gradual';Upside Risk Remains

*DJ FOMC:Many Still 'Quite Concerned' About Inflation

*DJ FOMC:'Several' Worried Inflation Expectations Could Rise

*DJ FOMC:Housing 'Cooling Considerably' But No Spillover

*DJ FOMC:Lower Sustained Energy Prices Could Damp Core Prices

*DJ FOMC:To Date, 'Inflation Expectations Remain Contained'

*DJ FOMC: Sep Rate Choice 'Somewhat Less Difficult' Than Aug


DJ FOMC:Inflation Drop Likely 'Gradual';Upside Risk Remains


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Most U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers continue to expect inflation to decline gradually as the economy cools, but those expectations are tempered by uncertainty and risks around that forecast are "skewed" toward higher inflation rates, according to the Sept. 20 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting minutes released Wednesday.

Still, recent drops in energy prices and other signs of slowing economic activity, along with slightly lower core inflation readings, pointed to a "modestly better inflation outlook and hence made the policy decision today somewhat less difficult than it was in August, when it was seen as a particularly close call," the minutes said.

At its September meeting, the Fed held the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 5.25% for the second-straight time, reasoning that slower economic growth will ease inflation rates which, for now, remain well above the central bank's understood comfort zone.

According to the minutes, "many participants also noted that core inflation had been running at an undesirably high rate."

"Although most participants expected core inflation to decline gradually, substantial uncertainty attended this outlook," the minutes said.

Most participants at the meeting indicated that risks remain tilted towards higher inflation. Uncertainties around their forecast for a gradual reduction in inflation "were skewed toward higher rather than lower inflation rates," the minutes said.

"Many meeting participants emphasized that they continued to be quite concerned about the outlook for inflation," and they underscored "the importance of ensuring a moderation in inflation."

During the September meeting, the Fed said members focused especially on developments in the housing market, where all indicators - price, sales, permits, and inventories - point to contraction in most regions of the country.

But, weakness in housing doesn't appear to have spread. "Thus far, the drop in housing market activity appeared not to have spilled over significantly to other sectors of the economy," the Fed said.

In fact, consumer spending appears to be expanding, supported by gains in income, employment and stock markets.

Meanwhile, business investment is expanding "at a reasonably good pace," the Fed said.

But some participants at the September meeting seemed to have concerns about protecting the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, with core inflation rates still running above the Fed's implied comfort zone of 1% to 2%.

"Several participants worried that inflation expectations could rise and the Federal Reserve's willingness to carry through on its intention to seek price stability could be called into question if cost and price pressures mounted or even if there was no moderation in core inflation," the Fed said.

The FOMC voted 10-1 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in September, with Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissenting for a second straight time meeting. He preferred a 25-basis-point rise.
Da hat der Threadersteller sich ja mächtig geirrt. Die 6000 haben wir wieder und besser dennje. Die Stimmung dreht und die anderen Werte werden nachziehen
seit den FOMC minutes gestern ist die zinssenkungsphantasie - sofern sie denn je bestanden hat - ausgeträumt.

Core Inflation Undesirably High und Econ Growth Continuing To Moderate, das ganze in verbindung mit alltimehighs und der berichtssaison, die nächste woche so richtig beginnt (warum läuft yhoo eigentlich zu immer neuen 52-wochen-tiefs?) sind eine geniale mischung. erinnert sich jemand an den 19. oktober 1987 ? :D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.574.103 von nachtschatten am 12.10.06 10:29:23Ich mag es selber nicht, wenn andere die Meinung anderer
nachplappern, aber diesen November sind Kongesswahlen im
Amiland.

Deswegen vermuten viele, dass die derzeitige Hausse im
Amiland grösstenteils darauf zurückzuführen ist.

Aber! Politische Börsen haben kurze Beine, manchmal
verdammt kurze.

Deswegen gehe ich davon aus, dass der Crashmonat
Oktober positiv verlaufen wird, und im November dann
die Crashmonate Semptember und Oktober "nachgeholt" werden,
und zwar nicht zu knapp......
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.575.680 von nonkeynes2 am 12.10.06 11:50:23
ja - die kongresswahlen sind wohl zumindest teilweise für die 1100-punkte-ralley im Dow verantwortlich, es muss sich ja auszahlen, Goldman Sachs ins wirtschaftsministerium zu holen :D beim öl laufen wahrscheinlich ähnliche spielchen - energieminister Bodman hat gestern ja angekündigt, mit den saudis über die output-kürzung zu reden - hehe, ein schelm :D

übrigens gibts die erwartung auf eine weitere zinserhöhung der EZB - viel zeit bleibt da aber nicht mehr ;)




ECB's Quaden Expects Rate Change Before End Of Year

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--European Central Bank board member Guy Quaden said Thursday that he expects a rate change before the end of the year.

Rates in the 12-nation euro zone are "less accommodative" than a year ago, he said. But he added that monetary policy, "still doesn't hamper economic activity."

"Providing the bank's basic scenario continues to be confirmed, a further adjustment of the ECB rate is likely before the end of this year," Quaden said.

The ECB has raised its main lending rate to 3.25% from 2% in a series of quarter point moves. ECB watchers expect another quarter of a percentage point rate hike by year-end to 3.5%.

Quaden said a high level of "uncertainty and volatility" remains, citing the slump in oil prices in recent weeks.

What happens next year remains uncertain, he said, adding that, "any speculation about our monetary policy stance is premature, absolutely."

The central bank must continue to assess the new data coming in over the next few months before they publish new economic forecasts in December, he said.
wer heute spass haben will: CTX - übrigens dass einer der grössten häusle-bauer mal kurzerhand die earnings-schätzung halbiert, spricht doch ganz klar für blühende landschaften... äh alltimehigh :D


AP
Centex Cuts Fiscal 2Q Earnings View
Thursday October 12, 5:43 pm ET
Centex Slices 2Q Earnings Outlook in Half on Record Contract Cancellations

DALLAS (AP) -- Centex Corp., one of the biggest home builders in the U.S., said Thursday it expects fiscal second-quarter earnings to fall significantly below its own and Wall Street's estimates because of "record levels" of home sales contract cancellations.
For the quarter ended Sept. 30, the company said it now expects earnings from continuing operations of 65 cents to 75 cents per share, down from an outlook of $1.40 per share in July.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast earnings of $1.33 per share.

Housing operating earnings are expected to total about $230 million based on 8,525 home closings.

Net sales, or orders, for the quarter were 6,828, a decrease of 28 percent from last year's second quarter.

Centex said in many cases buyers canceled home sales contracts because they couldn't sell their existing homes.

The company said it will release its earnings on Oct. 24 after the market closes.

Centex shares tumbled in after-hours trading, losing $2.39, or 4.3 percent, at $52.70.



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061012/centex_earnings.html?.v=1&pri…
sep retail & food -0,4; erwartet +0,3

sep retail & food ex autos -0,5; erwartet 0,0

.......
inventories +0,6; erwartet +0,5

Michigan: 92,3; erwartet 86

so, jetzt aber DOW 12.000 ... oder zinsangst - egal, ab in wochenende ;)
Mrs. Yellen: "... ich sehe blühende landschaften" :D

Housing slowdown creating 'ghost towns'
Fed president says some effects of rate hikes still in the pipeline
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:20 PM ET Oct 16, 2006


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The housing slowdown has turned some parts of the Phoenix and Las Vegas metropolitan areas into "ghost towns," where many unsold homes stand empty, Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said Monday.

Yellen said that she heard the ominous description from a "major home builder," who told her that the share of unsold homes in some subdivisions around the two Southwestern cities has topped 80%.
"Though the situation isn't that bad everywhere, a significant buildup of home inventory implies that permits and (housing) starts may continue to fall, and the market may not recover for several years," she warned, according to the text of a speech delivered Monday at the Hong Kong Association of Northern California in San Francisco.

The housing slowdown was one of several factors Yellen cited in which she argued that the current level of interest rates is "moderately restrictive," and that it makes sense to keep it that way "for a time."
Nationally, inventories of unsold homes have climbed as housing became less affordable, Yellen said in a meeting with reporters after her speech.
Speculation had been quite high in areas such as Phoenix and Las Vegas and now that prices may not be heading higher anymore, those speculators seem to be dumping inventory on the market, she added.
"The market (in these regions) has seized up to some extent and inventories are building," she said.
Yellen's speech was nearly identical to one she gave a week ago.

Yellen is a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets U.S. monetary policy. The FOMC will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday, with most observers expecting a vote to keep overnight interest rates steady at 5.25%.
"Holding the stance of policy steady for a time makes sense to me," Yellen said Monday. "We have yet to see the full effects of the series of 17 federal funds rate increases -- some are probably still in the pipeline," the Fed president added.
"I believe policy may now be well-positioned," Yellen said.
Inflationary pressures are likely to subside, she said.
"The economy appears to have entered a period of below-trend growth," Yellen said. "If this continues for a time, as I think is likely, the tightness we have seen in labor and product markets would ease somewhat, tending gradually to reverse any underlying inflationary pressures."

She didn't express any desire to cut rates yet. "The inflation outlook remains highly uncertain, and until we actually see inflation begin to slow down, I will be focused on the upside risks in the outlook," she concluded.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.


http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfi…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.672.083 von nachtschatten am 17.10.06 09:45:42Auch George Soros, indem er noch vor knapp einem Jahr eine Rezession für 2007 in den USA voraussah, hat sich im großen und ganzen auf die steigenden Zinsen und den überhitzten Immobilienmarkt bezogen.

Ich sehe zwar keine Rezession und glaube an eine glimpfliche Entwicklung auf dem Immobilienmarkt, dennoch die "Entscheidung" hier steht noch bevor.

In diesem Zusammenhang: die Zinsen am kurzen Ende sind am Top (oder nahezu am Top, wenn überraschender- aber möglicherweise noch eine Anhebung bevorstehen sollte) und am langen Ende (insb. Hypothekenzinsen) sind schon ein Stück gefallen. Also langsam (vielleicht zu langsam?) kommt von dieser Seite etwas Entspannung. Andere Entspannung bei den Immobilien könnte durch die recht heftige Reaktion der Häuserbauer kommen - sie scheinen nämlich das Angebot ziemlich abrupt zu kürzen. Klar, die Bestände sind hoch, die Preise auch, aber durch einen Mix von niedrigeren Zinsen und weniger Angebot, könnte ein Platzen vermieden werden. Könnte...

Ich gehe nicht soweit zu sagen "nie wieder unter 6000", aber fast...

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.674.244 von saviano am 17.10.06 11:28:06
der effekt des frostigen immobilienmarkts zieht auf jeden fall so langsam weitere kreise, siehe z.b. gestern nachbörslich STLY minus 11%, UFPI minus 6% - das sind zugegeben kleine werte, aber zeigen doch, welche konsequenzen aus der sich abschwächenden (häuslebauer-)konjunktur zu erwarten sind. das ganze muss nicht in eine rezession laufen - nur denke ich werden wir den widerspruch zwischen konjunkturabkühlung und täglichen alltimehighs so langsam auflösen - ausser die jetzt kommenden earnings und ausblicke lassen im grossen und ganzen weiterhin die sonne scheinen ;)

zu den häulsebauern und den zinsen ein nicht uninteressanter artikel aus dem Barrons vom 12. oktober:


This Is What It Sounds Like When Doves Cry

WHILE THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE opted not to raise its short-term interest-rate target at its Sept. 20 meeting, it may as well have.

A drumbeat of Fed-speak about the continuing specter of inflation has helped push rates up in the bond market by nearly a quarter percentage point in the past couple of weeks as prospects of rate cuts have faded further into the future. That uptick in bond yields could restrain the economy as effectively as if the central bank hiked its federal-funds target from its current 5.25% level.

In other words, the interest-rate doves have fallen prey to the hawks.

Since Sept. 25, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has jumped 22 basis points, to 4.78% Wednesday from 4.56%. At the long end of the yield curve, the 30-year bond has backed up to 4.91% from 4.70% while in the intermediate sector the five-year note yield is up to 4.75% from 4.51% over that span. At the short end, the two-year note -- the maturity most sensitive to expectations about shifts in Fed policy -- has seen its yield jump to 4.85% from 4.63%.

In the financial futures market, contracts that had discounted a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed in the spring have pushed back their expectations of an easing move to sometime next summer.

Bottom line: the fixed-income markets have adjusted their expectations

The import of these moves hasn't just been for hyperactive bond traders. These swings in interest rates apparently have been felt by a broad swath of Americans.

Mortgage applications fell 5.5% in the week ended Oct. 5, according to the latest seasonally adjusted data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade group's application index was down 13.8% from a year ago.

That dip marked a sharp reversal from the previous week, when the MBA's application index soared 11.9%. In the past two weeks, 30-year fixed rate mortgages have moved up to an average rate of 6.27% from 6.18%. It wouldn't be surprising that prospective borrowers rushed to file applications once they saw that the decline in bond yields -- from a peak of 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury around mid-year -- seemed to have bottomed.

Indeed, at least one prominent Fed official thinks the bond market has done the central bank's work. In an interview with the Financial Times, St. Louis Fed President William Poole observed, "the decline in long rates is working as a built-in stabilizer for the economy." He pointed to the drop in mortgage rates in particular.

The Fed, Poole continued, can "sit back and do relatively little, relying on the stabilizing effect of market reactions to current data." But the central bank "eventually would have to follow through" to validate market expectations.

Indeed, to take the St. Louis Fed head's argument a step further, if the market can equilibrate long-term interest rates, why can't it be trusted to set the rate for fed funds?

In the style of a Soviet-era price fixer, the Fed pegs the cost of overnight interbank loans. Of course, the central bank has an army of staff economists to guide its decisions. But still, it doesn't dare leave them to the market.

The fed-funds rate of 5.25% towers above the aforementioned Treasury yields. That's a classic sign that the market expects that short-term rates eventually will have to come down.

Minutes of the Sept. 20 FOMC made it clear that the policy-setting panel is in no rush to validate these market expectations. "Many meeting participants emphasized that they continued to be quite concerned about the outlook for inflation," a theme sounded by an array of Fed officials, all singing from the same hymnal.

Some Fed officials also expressed confidence that the worst is over for housing, a view seconded by former Fed head Alan Greenspan in a private speech in Canada last week. "I suspect that we are coming to the end of this downtrend, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, are flattening out," Mr. G was reported by the FT as saying (prior to the latest week's decline.)

But others in the industry are less sanguine. Gary Gordon, executive vice president of mortgage real-estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management (ticker: NLY) and former chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS, contends we're only in the first stages of the housing problem, that of low affordability resulting from the bubble in prices. That, he continues, will result in weak job growth in 2007 from the falloff in housing activity, which will further crimp housing demand. Finally, he sees mortgage providers tightening lending standards in 2007-2008 in response to sharply rising mortgage defaults, which he sees spurring the Fed to cut the fed-funds rate to 4%.

The Fed, for its part, continues to see the risks tilted to greater inflation and diminishing slack in the economy even as growth slows next year. And so it sees no reason to cut rates soon.

For the stock market, one of the spurs to the recent rally has been optimism about interest rates; for now, they're no longer headed lower. The other prop had been falling oil prices, which seem to have lost their power to push stocks higher.

The final one had been high hopes for continued strong corporate earnings. Alcoa's (AA) wide miss of the Street's third-quarter forecasts doesn't inspire confidence, although earnings season is just starting.

But with the interest-rate and oil boosts for the market seemingly spent, earnings had better come through.

http://online.barrons.com/article_print/SB116061210446289912…
Core PPI +0,6 statt +0,2 .....




*DJ US Sep Producer Prices -1.3%; Consensus -0.7%

10/17/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep PPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.6%; Consensus +0.2%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep PPI Intermediate Goods -1.4%; Core +0.1%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep PPI Crude Goods -3.4%; Core +1.0%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep PPI Energy Prices -8.4%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep Passenger Car Prices +2.8%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Aug PPI Unrevised At +0.1%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-17-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

=DJ DATA SNAP: Core PPI Higher Than Expected As Cars Rise


=========================================================
Sep Producer Price Index ! Consensus: !
! Overall: -0.7% !
Key Numbers: Sep Aug ! Core: +0.2% !
PPI Index: -1.3% +0.1% ! Actual: !
Core Index: +0.6% -0.4% ! Overall: -1.3% !
Intermediate: -1.4% +0.4% ! Core: +0.6% !
=========================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Wholesale prices took their sharpest drop in three years during September as gasoline prices made a record plunge, but core inflation raced up triple the rate expected.

The producer price index for finished goods fell by 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, after increasing 0.1% in August, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The September drop in the PPI was the largest since prices fell 1.4% in April 2003.

The producer price index for goods excluding food and energy costs increased 0.6% in September. This "core" rate dropped 0.4% in August. The September climb in the core rate was the largest increase since a matching rise in January 2005.

In the 12 months ending in September, overall wholesale prices climbed 0.9% on an unadjusted basis. The core rate was up 1.2%.

The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 0.7% decline in the overall PPI and a 0.2% climb in the core rate.

The Labor Department will release consumer prices for September on Wednesday - data that will weigh on the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. The Fed meets Oct. 24-25 and is expected to keep its federal funds rate at 5.25% for a third meeting in a row following a long campaign of tightening to prevent the economy from heating up inflation.

Tuesday's report showed producer prices for finished goods in the energy sector decreased 8.4% last month - the sharpest decline since 14.0% in July 1986. Gasoline fell a record 22.2%. Residential natural gas rose 1.8% and electricity dipped 0.1%. Home heating oil dropped 18.5%.

Food prices increased 0.7% in September, as costs for pork rose 8.1% and milled rice climbed 3.6%.

Wholesale prices of passenger cars increased by 2.8% in September - the largest climb since 3.0% in September 1990. Prices of light trucks climbed 3.5%.

Printing trades machinery was 2.3% higher. Soaps and synthetic detergents advanced 2.1%.

Deeper in the production pipeline, prices eased last month. Prices of raw materials, also known as crude goods, declined by 3.4%, after rising 2.2% in August. Intermediate goods prices decreased 1.4%, after climbing 0.4%.
hehe, das wird jetzt als inflationsdämpfend interpretiert

:D


*DJ US Sep Industrial Production -0.6%; Consensus -0.1%

*DJ US Sep Capacity Util -0.6-Pt At 81.9%; Consensus 82.2%

*DJ US Aug Industrial Production Revised To Unch From -0.1%

*DJ US Aug Capacity Use Revised To 82.5% From 82.4%



=DJ DATA SNAP: US Sep Industrial Production Falls 0.6%


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. industrial production fell more than expected last month, the largest monthly drop since September of last year, as utilities generation plunged and manufacturing declined.

Industrial production decreased 0.6% in September, slowing down from a flat level in August, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. August's industrial production was originally reported as being down 0.1%.

Last month's industrial capacity utilization fell 0.6 percentage point to 81.9%. The August utilization rate was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 82.5%. Still, September utilization was above the 1972-2005 average.

The September decline in industrial output was steeper than Wall Street had expected. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires indicated industrial production had decreased 0.1% last month, while capacity utilization had fallen to 82.2%.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.680.276 von nachtschatten am 17.10.06 15:30:15Ich hoffe nur, diesen Pushern bleiben heut Abend INTC und IBM im Hals stecken.

:O
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.680.393 von heuschrecker am 17.10.06 15:33:19
grins, du weisst doch, dass aktien eigentlich gar nicht fallen können ... heute abend in den börsensendungen wird das wieder als "... normale gewinnmitnahmen blabla ... kein grund zur besorgnis blablabla ... jetzt wieder luft nach oben blabablabla ... " verkauft - gesponsert von dingdong, ihrem versicherungskonzern ;) - hehe, vertrauen ist einfach das ende von allem.

:D:D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.682.329 von nachtschatten am 17.10.06 16:37:19Im Prinzip kommts mir auch nicht auf Stunden, Tage oder Wochen an. Aber ich finds lustig, wie die Blasen vor den Quartalszahlen nochmal hochgejubelt wurden

:look:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.674.244 von saviano am 17.10.06 11:28:06Ich gehe nicht soweit zu sagen "nie wieder unter 6000", aber fast...

warst du nicht mal anderer meinung :confused:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.683.081 von Lanzalover am 17.10.06 17:11:21Ich?

Seit Jahren bin ich nur einer Meinung - dies ist eine Hausse, die immer noch alle ihren fundamentalen Berechtigungen für weiter steigende Kurse erfüllt.

Mit den irgendwann deutlich steigenden Zinsen habe ich lediglich vor den Emerging Markets gewarnt und mit etwas mehr Turbolenzen gerechnet (die auch mehr oder weniger gekommen sind). Alle Korrekturziele bisher habe ich mit nicht mehr als 10-15% angesetzt und dies auch als keinen Grund den Makrt auf der long-seite zu verlassen.

Momentan sehe ich noch die Möglichkeit für eine Korrektur (sagen wir wieder mal 10%) aber keine Notwendigkeit den Markt zu verlassen.

Alles ist dokumentiert... ;)

www.boersennotizbuch.de
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.687.361 von saviano am 17.10.06 20:06:14ah, alles klar, ich habe dich denn wohl falsch verstanden . . .
*DJ US Sep Consumer Prices -0.5%; Consensus -0.3%

10/18/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-18-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.2%; Consensus +0.2%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-18-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Core CPI Up 2.9% On Yr; Highest Since Feb '96



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-18-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Sep CPI Energy Prices -7.2%; Food Prices +0.3%



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-18-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Real Average Weekly Earnings +1.0% In Sep



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-18-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

=DJ DATA SNAP: US CPI Drops But Annual Core Rt At Decade High


========================================================
Sep Consumer Price Index ! Consensus !
Key Numbers: Sep Aug ! Overall: -0.3% !
CPI Index: -0.5% +0.2% ! Core: +0.2% !
Core Index: +0.2% +0.2% ! Actual: !
Energy: -7.2% +0.3% ! Overall: -0.5% !
! Core: +0.2% !
========================================================

By Brian Blackstone
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer prices tumbled last month on the back of a steep slide in energy prices, but the underlying inflation rate accelerated to its highest annual rate in over a decade, which should keep Federal Reserve officials on edge about inflation risks in the economy.

The consumer price index decreased 0.5% in September, the biggest drop since November 2005, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, the CPI advanced 0.2%, the third-straight monthly increase of that size.

Unrounded, the core CPI rose 0.242%, matching August's gain.

The median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a 0.3% decline in the CPI and a 0.2% increase in the core index.

Consumer prices were 2.1% higher than a year earlier. Core prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months ending in September. That's the highest rate since February 1996 and is well above the Fed's understood comfort zone for core inflation of 1% to 2%, though that range tends to apply to the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is running at a 2.5% year-on-year pace.

Officials have left the federal funds rate at 5.25% for two-straight meetings - and are expected to do so again when they meet next week - on the expectation that slower economic growth and falling energy prices will ease underlying inflation.

Yet they've signaled that they still see higher inflation as a greater risk than lower economic growth.

Thus, Wednesday's report will likely keep them nervous about the state of price pressures in the economy. Indeed, officials have signaled that they won't be satisfied with a simple stabilization in core inflation; they need to see inflation rates come down. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who dissented from the past two decisions and preferred higher rates, said recently "should inflation persist around the current elevated level, firmer monetary policy would be required."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said two weeks ago that inflation "is still above what we would consider price stability," and that the Fed must stay on guard to ensure that inflation doesn't elevate, "or even remain where it is."

Energy prices fell 7.2%, the Labor Department said in Wednesday's report. Gasoline prices fell 13.5%. Natural gas increased 2.9%.

Food prices increased 0.3%.

New vehicle prices dipped 0.1% and airline fares slipped 2.3%.

Medical care prices increased 0.3%.

Housing, which accounts for 40% of the index, rose by 0.3%. Rent climbed 0.4% and owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3%.

Clothing prices increased 0.6%, while education and communication rose 0.1%.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the average weekly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, increased 1% in September. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2%. Average weekly hours were unchanged.
soso, das EU-parlament warnt die EZB vor dem nächsten zinsschritt - um ihre politische unabhängigkeit zu demonstrieren, bleibt der EZB jetzt ja eigentlich gar keine andere wahl, als die zinsen zu erhöhen, oder?

:D

DJ EU Parliament To Warn Against More ECB Rate Hikes

10/18/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The European Parliament is expected to warn the European Central Bank next week against stifling economic recovery with interest rate hikes, according to a draft resolution from the parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Economists forecast the ECB will raise interest rates in December for the sixth time since December 2005. This month the ECB issued its fifth rate hike to 3.25% from 2.0% in December 2005. The rate hikes aim to anchor inflation around the ECB's "close to, but below" 2% inflation target.

But the parliament says inflation represents little danger. The ECB must "be aware of the risks" to growth that more rate hikes pose, the draft resolution says.

"This recovery would seem to be fairly fragile," the committee's rapporteur Pervenche Beres wrote in an explanatory statement accompanying the resolution.

The resolution also demands transparency in the way the central bank's executive board members are appointed and the way other central bank decisions are made. It wants the bank to publish the minutes of its board meetings and to better explain policy changes.

"The independence which the ECB enjoys, to a degree which has no equivalent anywhere else in the world, demands greater transparency in its monetary decision-making," Beres said.

Finally, the resolution asks for more foreign-exchange rate policy coordination between the central bank and European Union finance ministers, citing the euro's recent strength against the dollar which may also hamper the euro zone's economic recovery.

The full parliament will vote on the resolution Oct. 26, though one person familiar with the issue said the resolution is likely to be approved.
ECONOMIC REPORT
Leading index rises 0.1%, suggesting slow growth

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Oct 19, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of future growth shows the U.S. economy should continue to expand at a slow pace, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in September after falling in July and August. The index has dropped in five of the past eight months, and is down 0.9% in the past six months.
Economists expected the leading index to rise 0.3%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The leading index fell 0.2% in August and 0.3% in July.
"The behavior of the leading index so far suggests that economic growth should continue at the slow rate in the near term," the New York-based private research group said.

Five of the 10 leading indicators rose in September: Consumer expectations, money supply, stock prices, jobless claims and core capital equipment orders.
Five others fell: Building permits, factory working hours, delivery times, the interest-rate spread and new orders for consumer goods.

In the past six months, 45% of the indicators have been positive.
The coincident index was unchanged in September, with falling industrial production offsetting gains in income, sales and employment.
The lagging index rose 0.2% in September.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B04B…
Philly-Fed minus 0,7; erwartet 8.


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct Business Index -0.7 Vs Sep -0.4


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct Business Index Expected 8.0


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct Price Paid 32.0 Vs Sep 38.1


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct Price Received 17.8 Vs Sep 21.6


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct Employment 9.4 Vs Sep 10.7


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Oct New Orders 13.4 Vs Sep -1.3


*DJ Philadelphia Fed: Input Price Pressures 'Less Pervasive'


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Philadelphia area manufacturers saw another contraction in growth during October, although the sector did enjoy another reduction in price pressure gains.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday that its business conditions index, a gauge of the health of the region's manufacturing sector, moved to a -0.7 reading in September versus the -0.4 it stood at in September. Economists expected October's reading to stand at 8.0. Negative readings indicate a contraction in activity.

The October report followed the unexpectedly weak showing from September, an event that had caused considerable turmoil in financial markets. However, the findings of the September report were not borne out in other regional manufacturing surveys or in national manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management.

"Although the indicator for general activity suggests no overall growth, indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment suggest a slight improvement from last month," the Philadelphia Fed's report said. "According to responses from this month's survey, input price pressures are still strong but are less pervasive than in the previous month," it said.

In the report, the Philadelphia Fed said that inflationary forces continued to wane. The prices paid index stood at 32.0, from September's 38.1, while the prices received index was 17.8, from 21.6 in September.

Hiring at Philadelphia-area factories grew at a less robust rate, with the employment index moving to 9.4, from 10.7 the month before. Meanwhile, the new orders index improved to 13.4, after -1.3 in September.
die headline heute auf marketwatch, in riesenlettern:

Oil producers rise on OPEC

grins, war klar. und dass der DOW am jahrestag des 87'iger crashs über 12.000 schliesst, was für eine schöne symbolik. ungeachtet der wirtschaftsdaten, die da gestern kamen:

die leading indicators, +0.1 statt der erwarteten +0.3:

Five of the 10 leading indicators rose in September:
Consumer expectations,
money supply,
stock prices :D
jobless claims :D
and core capital equipment orders.

Five others fell:
Building permits,
factory working hours,
delivery times,
the interest-rate spread
and new orders for consumer goods.

der Philly-Fed mit -0.7 statt der erwarteten +8.0 war gottseidank inflationsdämpfend ... leute, ich sehe DOW 13.000 !

:D
*DJ Richmond Fed: Oct Manufacturing Index -2 Vs Sep 9


*DJ Richmond Fed: Oct Mfg Shipments Index -7 Vs Sep 9


*DJ Richmond Fed: Oct Services Revenues Index 5 Vs Sep 11


*DJ Richmond Fed: Oct Retail Revenues Index -27 Vs Sep -1



DJ Richmond Fed: Oct Manufacturing Index -2 Vs Sep 9

10/24/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Economic activity in the Richmond region deteriorated in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported Tuesday.

The bank's manufacturing index came in at negative 2 versus 9 in September, indicating a contraction in activity. The bank's shipments index fell to negative 7 from 9 the month before.

The service sector revenues index ebbed to 5 from 11 in September, while the retail revenues index fell hard, slipping to negative 27, from negative 1 the month before.

All companies that participated in the survey are located within the Federal Reserve of Richmond district, which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and most of West Virginia.
DJ FED WATCH: Merrill Lynch Moves Back Rate Cut Prediction

10/25/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting looming, one major investment bank has tweaked its long run monetary policy forecast, pushing back the timing of an expected central bank interest rate cut.

"Constructive, and unforeseen, developments in the energy market have caused us to slightly change our interest rate outlook for 2007," Merrill Lynch economists told clients.

"We now expect the Fed's easing cycle to commence in March 2007," rather than at the January policy meeting. Besides pushing back the first rate cut, Merrill said "we predict the rate cutting cycle may be more 'measured'" and some easing could bleed into 2008.

The bank explained the first stage of a easing cycle would be aimed at taking out what it called the three "insurance" hikes done by the Fed in early 2006. Such cuts should get the funds rate back to a neutral relationship with growth, and, the bank argues, should help lift a housing market that's seen a sharp interest-rate driven slowdown.

But the housing retrenchment will likely impart so much drag on growth the Fed will have to push monetary policy from a neutral stance towards one that stimulates growth, the bank contends. That means even lower short-term interest rates.

Merrill reckons the Fed will eventually settle on a funds rate of 4% - it currently stands at 5.25% where it will very likely stay at the end of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Wednesday. The bank cautions that the timing and extent of the easing remains very much a creature of the economy's actual performance, adding an element of uncertainty to the outlook.

The bank also warned in its note that "the longer the Fed stays 'on hold' and entertains the possibility of additional rate increases, the greater the risks of a hard landing in 2007 and 2008."

Merrill's call for easier monetary policy finds plenty of company on Wall Street, with a majority of the major investment banks predicting some sort of action next year. Only a handful predicts the Fed will go the other way and raise rates. BNP Paribas has the most aggressive outlook on rate cuts, and is forecasting the Fed will cut at its December meeting to a 5% funds rate, on its way to 3% by the end of 2007.

But at the same time, economists' projections of monetary policy over long horizons are among the most frequently revised forecasts available on Wall Street. Fed officials, who are often reluctant to make short-term predictions about rate policy, have been so conditioned by unexpected turns in the economy that they're even more reluctant to forecast monetary policy beyond a few months out.


Housing Wild Card

Estimating the impact of the housing slowdown Merrill believes the Fed will have to lean against has long been a tricky affair. In recent comments Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he believed the "substantial correction" in the sector would likely trim "a percentage point off growth in the second half of the year" from what it would have been otherwise. In those early September comments, the central bank chief added that he saw a limited broader economic impact of the slowdown.

Credit Suisse forecasters said in a recent note they see the housing slowdown "showing signs of stabilizing." They added "we estimate that the direct impact of slower construction on (gross domestic product) growth will be a reduction in annualized growth of 3/4 to 1% over the next several quarters." In affirming Bernanke's analysis, the bank notes it's harder to gauge how much of a drag consumers will face because of this.

"We estimate that real consumption growth will slow from a 3.5% annual pace to a moderately below trend 3% rate," the Credit Suisse economists wrote. The bank sees a different impact on monetary policy relative to Merrill Lynch, and predicts the Fed will hold on to its current funds rate of 5.25% indefinitely.
ECONOMIC REPORT
Durables soar to six-year high on Boeing
Excluding transportation, September's orders rise 0.1%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:21 AM ET Oct 26, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Demand for U.S.-made durable goods soared 7.8% in September, the biggest jump in six years, as orders for new aircraft nearly tripled, the government said Thursday.
Outside transportation, however, new orders rose just 0.1%, marking the first increase in three months.
The jump in last month's new orders for big-ticket items far exceeded the 2.9% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It's the first gain in three months.
The increase came almost entirely from a jump in orders booked by Boeing Co., which recorded 175 orders in September compared with 30 in August, and from demand by the Pentagon for defense capital goods, the Commerce Department reported. Read the full government report.
Transportation orders rose 27.6%, the biggest increase in six years. Orders for civilian aircraft zoomed 183%, the biggest increase in four years. Meanwhile, orders for motor vehicles sank 6.1%.
Defense capital goods orders rose 41.9%. Excluding defense, orders rose 6.3%, the largest gain in just over a year.
Core capital-equipment orders, considered the best monthly gauge of business investment, increased a healthy 1.1% in September, the biggest increase since May.
"Once we strip away some of the most volatile categories, the underlying picture is one of relative weakness," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital. "Another weak report in October would make me begin to worry a bit, but our sense is that September was more of a weak patch than the start of something worse."
Shipments of durable goods, meanwhile, fell 2.8%, a disappointing figure that is likely to further reduce expectations for third-quarter U.S. economic growth. The government will report on third-quarter gross domestic product on Friday, with economists currently expecting growth to slow to a 2% annual pace from 2.6% in the second quarter.
Unfilled orders, an indicator of future production, rose 3.8%, with the bulk of the increase coming in civilian aircraft.
Inventories rose 1%, the eighth increase in the past nine months.
Orders, while very volatile on a month-to-month basis, are considered a good leading indicator for manufacturing activity.
Orders for durable goods are up 8.9% in the year to date. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.
Shipments of core capital goods fell 2.1% after a 1% gain in August, an indication that business investment could be weaker than expected in the third quarter after a surprising drop in the second quarter.
Continued strength in capital spending is considered to be essential to the expected soft landing in the U.S. economy.
"This report seems to indicate that conditions are not deteriorating very much," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers. "Yes, the unevenness does point to some softening in the sector. But there are no signs of any major downturn."
In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000, to 308,000, last week. The four-week average of new claims fell by 2,750 to 305,250, the lowest level since February. See full story.
Durables details
Broken down by sectors, demand was mixed in September. Orders were down for motor vehicles, primary metals, fabricated metals, and electronics. Orders rose for aircraft, machinery and electrical equipment.
Orders for transportation goods rose 27.6%, while shipments fell 4.3%. Orders for motor vehicles dropped 6.1%, with shipments falling 6.7%.
Orders for electronics excluding semiconductors eased 0.1%, while shipments, including semiconductors, fell 5.5%.
Orders for machinery increased 1.3%, while shipments dropped 1.2%.
Orders for electrical equipment rose 3.7%, while shipments fell 2.3%.
In primary metals, orders were down 1% and shipments fell 2%.
Orders for fabricated metals fell 1.4%, while shipments fell 1.5%.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B499…
AP
Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years
Thursday October 26, 10:13 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
New Home Prices Fall by the Largest Amount in More Than 35 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a second month.
The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September 2005. It was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The weakness in new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in the price of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop on record.

The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up, rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075 million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales following three months of declines.

The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four decades.

This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.

The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight meeting on Wednesday.

The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned that inflation remained too high.

The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8 percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8 percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight months from May through July.

The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the Midwest.

In other economic news, the government said that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, powered by a huge jump in demand for commercial jetliners, soared in September by the largest amount in more than six years.

The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by 7.8 percent last month to $226.7 billion. The increase followed two consecutive months of declines and was the biggest gain since June 2000.

The improvement was more than triple the 2.3 percent gain that Wall Street had been expecting, but virtually all of the strength came from a giant 183.2 percent increase in orders for commercial aircraft. Outside of transportation, orders were up a far weaker 0.1 percent.

In a third report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 308,000. That increase was in line with expectations.

The September 7.8 percent increase in factory orders followed declines of 0.1 percent in August and 2.8 percent in July. Despite last month's jump, analysts believe that the factory sector is slowing under the impact of a weakening overall economy.

The economy began the year with growth at a sizzling pace of 5.6 percent at an annual rate but saw that slow to 2.6 percent in the spring and analysts believe overall economic growth in the just-completed July-September quarter slowed even further to around 2 percent or less. The government will report the actual third quarter figure on Friday.

For September, transportation orders rose by 27.6 percent as the big jump in demand for commercial aircraft offset a 6.1 percent drop in orders to automakers, who have been struggling recently under the impact of weak sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.

The rise in commercial airplane orders had been expected, given that Boeing Co. booked new orders for 175 planes, up from 30 in the prior month.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061026/economy.html?.v=10&printer=1
DJ 2nd UPDATE:Fed Leaves Rate At 5.25%;Sees Inflation Risk

10/25/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday left the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for a third-straight meeting amid signs of slower growth but kept the door open for higher rates if inflation persists.

An accompanying statement largely mirrored the one issued in September, repeating that the economy has slowed due to a "cooling" housing sector, that "some inflation risks remain" and that any additional rate hikes will depend on the economic outlook as implied by data.

The statement, which included a new phrase expressing optimism about prospects for moderate economic growth, suggests the likeliest scenario is a prolonged period of policy stability, assuming the Fed's economic forecast unfolds.

The Federal Open Market Committee, as universally expected in a Dow Jones Newswires survey, voted 10-1 to keep the federal funds rate at 5.25%, where it has stood since late June following 17 consecutive hikes dating back to mid-2004.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented for a third-straight time, again preferring another quarter-point hike in the fed funds rate.

"Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year," the FOMC said. "Going forward, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace," it added.

"With those few words, the Fed has effectively thrown cold water on the notion that the next move will be lower rates," said Bernard Baumohl, head of the Economic Outlook Group, in a research note.

"This is an expression of confidence in the economy," said David Kelly, senior economic adviser at Boston-based Putnam Investments. "What (Fed officials) are saying is: 'We feel better about growth, we feel better about inflation'."

Fed watchers had expected few changes in the Fed's assessment of policy, since not much has changed on the economic and inflation front over the past six weeks to alter the Fed's view that lower energy prices and a moderating economy should ease price pressures that, for now, remain uncomfortably high.

"Some inflation risks remain," the FOMC said, repeating its previous assessment. The Fed again said that underlying inflation readings "have been elevated" and that the "high level of resource utilization" could sustain inflation.

The Fed dropped its reference to energy and commodity prices as having the potential to keep inflation high.

"The removal suggests that the Fed has become more comfortable that its expectation for a moderation of inflation pressures will be realized," said Tony Crescenzi, strategist at Miller Tabak, in a research note.

Officials also repeated that inflation should "moderate" due to "reduced impetus from energy prices," contained inflation expectations and past rate hikes.

Monthly inflation numbers have cooled from elevated spring and early summer gains, with the consumer price index excluding food and energy posting three consecutive 0.2% gains through September. The overall CPI, meanwhile, fell last month due to sharply lower energy prices, which should take pressure off energy-related core items like transportation in coming months.

Yet the annual core CPI rose to a decade high of 2.9% in September. And the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the core personal consumption expenditures price index - is running at a 2.5% rate, well above the Fed's 1% to 2% understood comfort zone.

Against that backdrop, and with officials such as Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn warning that higher inflation poses a greater risk than weak economic growth, it would have been tough to drop the tightening bias and maintain their credibility.

The economy, meanwhile, appeared to have slowed sharply in the third quarter due in part to a steep slide in housing, conforming to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's projection that a "substantial" housing correction could slice one percentage point off second-half growth.

Gross domestic product figures due Friday are expected to show only around 2% growth in the third quarter, down from 2.6% in the second and well below the economy's growth potential of around 3% or higher.

But resilient consumer spending outside of housing and automobiles, aided by falling gasoline prices, rising equity values and a tight labor market, should bolster the economy in the fourth quarter, so any slack generated by sub-trend growth could be brief.




DJ Text Of Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision

10/25/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The following is the verbatim text of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates released Wednesday, Oct. 25:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market. Going forward, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace.

Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.

Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; William Poole; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
morgen das GDP, erwartet wird inzwischen +2,0, nachdem die schätzungen bis vor kurzem noch eine runde höher lagen. 2% wäre das schwächste quartal nach "katharina".


ECONOMIC PREVIEW
GDP dipped to 2% in quarter, economists say
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:18 PM ET Oct 20, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy slowed further in the third quarter, dragged down by falling investment in homes and lower output of autos, economists said.
The Commerce Department will provide its first estimate of gross domestic product in the June to September quarter on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It'll be the highlight of the economic calendar during a week that also features a monetary-policy meeting at the Federal Reserve.
Economists said that real growth probably came in at an annualized rate of just 2% after the 2.6% rise in the second quarter, marking the weakest back-to-back quarters in more than three years.
Just a few weeks ago, economists were looking for a growth rate in the third quarter closer to 2.5%, and a month before that were predicting a number closer to 3%.
The economy had been growing at pretty steady pace of around 3.6% before the higher interest rates began to bite. The economy grew at a 5.6% pace in the first quarter as it bounced back from the hurricanes.
The slowdown in the past two quarters can be laid directly at the Federal Reserve's feet. The two most interest-sensitive sectors of the economy are in retreat after two years of steadily tighter monetary policy. The economy is finally doing what the Fed wants: growing slower than the long-term trend of about 3%.
Slower growth is essential to the Fed's goal of putting inflation back into the bottle. If the unemployment rate drifts slightly higher over the next few quarters while consumer-price inflation drifts lower, the Fed will be mighty pleased.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with no change in policy the most likely outcome. The committee remains worried about core inflationary pressures, despite the big drop in the consumer-price index last month.
Officially, the committee isn't concerned that the economy will slow too much, but financial markets are banking on a cut or two in interest rates over the next year to keep growth from faltering.
Housing is a minus
Residential investment probably fell at a 20% annual rate in the quarter, shaving 1.2 percentage points from growth, said Ed McKelvey, an economist for Goldman Sachs. That would be the biggest hit from housing in 25 years.
"The pullback in auto production and the ongoing downdraft in residential construction, which together comprise just 9% of real GDP, probably subtracted about 1.5 percentage points from growth," said Brian Jones, an economist for Citigroup Global Markets.
Housing has been a modest drag on growth for three quarters now, and history indicates that once housing falters, it generally takes between two and four years before it recovers enough to add to growth. Jones expects home builders to work off their inventories relatively quickly and that the drag from housing will fade by the first half of 2007.
Although the wreckage of the housing sector and the pain of Detroit will be apparent in the GDP report, other sectors of the economy were holding up well in the third quarter.
Consumer affairs
"Consumer spending continues to defy gloom and doom forecasts," said economists at Credit Suisse, who expect consumer spending to rise at a healthy 3.5% annual rate.
"The consumer has remained resilient of late largely due to the decline in energy prices, the stock market rally and the solid labor market," said John Shinn, an economist for Lehman Brothers.
The strength of the consumer is the main reason why economists are expecting a pick up in growth to about 2.7% in the current quarter.
Business investment probably grew about 8%, according to Citigroup's Jones.

Durables strengthen
After two months of declines, orders for new durable goods probably surged in September by 2.5%, economists said.
Aircraft orders led the way, as Boeing Co. booked 175 orders in September after just 30 in August, said Jay Feldman, an economist for Credit Suisse, who is looking for a 5.5% rise in durables orders. Excluding transportation, Feldman expects a 2% gain as high-technology orders bounce back.


.....

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfi…
GDP +1,6 - selbst die miestesten erwartungen lagen bei 2,0%

..........
DJ DATA SNAP: US 3Q GDP Slows As Residential Spending Drops


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy softened further last summer, reaching its lowest rate of growth in three years as the housing sector slumps, according to government data that also showed inflation gauges eased.

Gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted 1.6% annual rate July through September, the Commerce Department said Friday in its first estimate of third-quarter GDP.

The gain was weaker than the second quarter's 2.6% rate and the first quarter's roaring 5.6% pace. It was the lowest rate of growth since 1.2% in the first three months of 2003.

The slowdown surprised Wall Street. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 2.2% increase.

The government's price index for personal consumption expenditures climbed 2.5%, after rising 4.0% in the second quarter. The PCE price gauge excluding food and energy rose 2.3%, after increasing 2.7% in the second quarter. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, climbed 2.0%, after going up 4.0% in the second quarter. The chain-weighted GDP price index increased 1.8%, after rising 3.3% in the second quarter.

GDP measures all goods and services produced in the economy. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP and it rose 3.1% after increasing 2.6% in the second quarter. Spending contributed 2.13 percentage points to GDP in the third quarter; it had contributed 1.81 percentage points in the second quarter.

Purchases of durable goods rose 8.4% July through September, after decreasing by 0.1% April through June. Third-quarter non-durables spending rose by 1.6%. Services spending climbed 2.8%.

Business spending increased by 8.6%. Investment in structures went up 14.0% and equipment and software increased 6.4%. Overall second-quarter outlays by businesses rose 4.4%.

Residential fixed investment, which includes spending on housing, fell by 17.4%; that was the sharpest drop since 21.7% in first-quarter 1991 and it reduced overall GDP by 1.12 percentage points. Second-quarter spending fell 11.1%. Sales of homes have been sliding this year, leading builders to offer incentives in order to move property.

Businesses slowed their inventory accumulation in the third quarter. Stockpiles rose by $50.7 billion. Companies had boosted stocks $53.7 billion in the second quarter. Analysts predicted lagging production of motor vehicles would lead to a weaker inventory number. The deceleration robbed GDP of 0.10 percentage point.

Real final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, increased at a 1.7% annual rate in the third quarter. Second-quarter sales advanced by 2.1%.

U.S. exports rose by 6.5%. Imports increased 7.8%. Second-quarter exports had gone up 6.2% and imports by 1.4%.

Federal government spending increased 1.7%, after falling in the second quarter by 4.5%. State and local government outlays rose 2.1%, after going up by 4.0% in the second quarter.
Die Goldmänner habens echt drauf, Kurse zu manipulieren:
---
GOLDMAN CUTS PC BOARD OUTLOOK
NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters)
...
"Demand is falling off a cliff," Goldman analyst Henry King said in a research report.
...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.915.951 von MMEHeld am 28.10.06 13:09:13Tolles Doppel-Posting. Schreib am besten in alle Dax-Threads deine Meinung. Das wird hier mit großer Freude aufgenommen.
Paulson hatte gestern medialen grosseinsatz, um das GDP zu vermarkten:

"... I’m feeling good about making this economic ... transition from an unsustainable rate to a more sustainable rate [of growth]... The recent slowdown will prove temporary ... Outside of the housing and auto industries, economic growth remains strong and has actually been accelerating ... blablabla ..."

Outside of the housing and auto industries ... weils so gut dazu passt:

Wal-Mart reports weakest monthly sales in years

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Despite an upbeat forecast for October, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. notched the slowest gain in same-store sales in years, the retail giant reported Saturday.
Wal-Mart said sales at established U.S. stores rose an estimated 0.5%, far off the 2-to-4% gain the company originally forecast for October.
On Oct. 23, company executives pared back their rosy outlook, saying that October same-store sales would be closer to September's figure of 1.3%. See full story.
The 0.5% same-store sales figure for October is the weakest since the 0.3% rise posted in December 2000, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Wal-Mart executives blamed the weak October figure on weakness in sales of women's apparel, as well as disruption to sales from remodeling efforts at almost half of its U.S. stores.
The retailer will announce official sales figures for each of its divisions on Thursday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B6DD…
DJ US Pending Home Sales Index Down 1.1% In Sep -NAR



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A leading index of U.S. home sales fell slightly in September, suggesting some leveling off of activity in the months ahead.

The National Association of Realtors index for pending sales of existing homes decreased at a rate of 1.1%, to 109.1 from 110.3, the industry group said Wednesday. The index rose 4.7% in August.

The index was 13.6% below the level of September 2005.

Commenting on the report, NAR chief economist David Lereah said, "the present level of home sales is relatively high in historic terms, and we can expect generally minor movements around this level."

"We don't expect to see any changes of note until early next year when we're likely to see a modest lift to home sales," he added.

By region, an index showed a 5.9% decline in the Northeast - and a 15.9% decrease since September 2005. It rose 2.1% in the Midwest - and was down 18.4% in the 12-month span. The West saw a 0.4% fall and a 15.2% drop in the past year. The index for the South declined 1.3% and was 9% lower versus September 2005.

The NAR index is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family homes and condominiums. A home sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed.

Pending sales typically close within one or two months of signing.

Last week, NAR reported that existing home sales fell a sixth-straight time in September, by 1.9%. Median home prices also fell versus the same month in 2005, though Lereah said when the report was released that it likely represented "the trough" for sales.

Other data suggest some stabilization. The Commerce Department reported a surprising 5.3% rise in new home sales in September. Housing starts also posted an unexpected gain in September.
=DJ DATA SNAP/ISM Mfg: Factory Gains Weakest Since June 2003


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory activity saw its weakest month of growth in over three years in October, amid a broad pullback in price pressures, a report Wednesday said.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said that its index of manufacturing activity slowed to 51.2 in October, from 52.9 in September and 54.5 in August. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity, and October's level was above the 53.5 mark that was the forecast of economists in a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires.

"The manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level of growth since June 2003," said Norbert Ore, who directs the survey for the ISM. He noted that "there was significant movement in most of the indexes," and "there was particularly good news on the pricing front as the prices index fell 14 points, signaling some relief for buyers for the first time in 15 months." Ore added that exports are being supported by a "weaker" dollar.

In the report, the organization noted that the inflationary forces faced by manufacturers retreated, with the prices index coming in at 47.0, after 61.0 in September. The prices index was 73.0 in August.

The ISM's new orders index moved to 52.1, from 54.2 the month before, while the production index hit 51.9, versus 56.1 in September. Hiring at factories improved: the employment index rose to 50.8, from 49.4 in September.

Meanwhile, the ISM said its inventories index came in at 49.4, versus 46.4 in September.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 25.064.303 von nachtschatten am 01.11.06 17:43:38Nur zur Erinnerung: "since 2003" hatten wir eine sehr schöne Hausse am Aktienmarkt...

www.boersennotizbuch.de
oct. housing starts minus 14,6%, erwartet minus 5,6%.


----> alltimehigh.


:D
na, wenn Bernanke die inflation als zu hoch bezeichnet, haben wir gaaanz sicher zinssenkungsphantasie, oder? grins, was für ein schönes zusammentreffen einer sich rapide abschwächenden konjunktur, inflationsangst und alltime-highs :D


DJ Bernanke: Core Inflation Still `Uncomfortably High`


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday said core inflation is still "uncomfortably high" and warned it would be "especially troublesome" if inflation doesn't moderate as he and other officials expect.

"In the case of inflation, the risks to the forecast seem primarily to the upside," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the National Italian American Foundation.

"Given the current level of inflation, a failure of inflation to moderate as expected would be especially troublesome," he added.

Though Bernanke's forecast remains for a moderation in economic activity and inflation in coming months, his comments suggest the Fed isn't as prepared to lower rates as financial markets expect.

The Federal Open Market Committee has kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% its past three meetings, and is widely expected to hold them steady again when it meets next month. Financial markets are currently pricing in a rate reduction as early as the first quarter of 2007.

But Bernanke reiterated the Fed's bias toward higher rates should inflation persist, saying Tuesday that "whether further policy action against inflation will be required depends on the incoming data and in particular on how these data affect the FOMC's medium-term forecasts of both inflation and output growth."

In a nod to recent soft readings on consumer prices, Bernanke said inflation "has been somewhat better behaved of late."

Tuesday's remarks were Bernanke's most comprehensive on the economy since his semiannual Congressional monetary policy testimony in July.

The Fed chairman said Tuesday that the moderation in growth seems to be occurring "roughly along the lines envisioned" in the July report.

After growing at a robust 5.6% pace in the first quarter, gross domestic product decelerated to rates of 2.6% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the third. Bernanke said the fourth quarter "is likely to be in the same general range that it was in the second and third quarters."

Housing has been a key factor slowing the overall economy, Bernanke observed, though he said some indicators suggest the rate of home buying "may be stabilizing."

Still, the rate of new building could remain under pressure, he said, since official housing data "likely understate the full extent of the inventory buildup."

"The slowing pace of residential construction is likely to be a drag on economic growth into next year," Bernanke said.

Yet outside of housing and automobiles, "economic activity has, on balance, been expanding at a solid pace," Bernanke said.

He expects the economy to grow "modestly below trend" in the near term before picking up "to a rate that is roughly in line with the growth rate of the economy's underlying productive capacity."

Bernanke added that after cutting production significantly in recent months, the automobile sector "may already be showing signs of strengthening."

Bernanke said he remains "optimistic" about the long term prospects for U.S. productivity and downplayed recent sluggish data, saying they likely reflect typical data volatility and not a "sea change."

Still, the economy's long-run growth potential should slow in coming years as Baby Boomers retire, thus trimming growth in the labor force, Bernanke said.
Deutsche Bank cuts U.S. growth estimate to 0%

By Rex Nutting
Last Update: 5:42 PM ET Nov 28, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy has stalled, Deutsche Bank economists said Tuesday in a note to clients. "In light of continued weakness in the economic data, we are cutting our fourth quarter real GDP growth forecast to zero from the 1.0% that we were originally predicting," wrote Joe LaVorgna and Carl Riccadonna. The economists made the forecast change following Tuesday's weak durable-goods report, coupled with tepid reports from retailers. "Consumer spending is not getting the boost from falling gasoline prices that many analysts anticipated," they wrote. Other economists aren't so glum: The average forecast for growth in the fourth quarter is 2.3% following a 1.6% gain in the third quarter.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/deutsche-bank-cuts-us-…
DJ US Jobless Claims +34K To 357K In Nov 25 Wk; Survey -3K

11/30/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

11-30-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ US Nov 18 Week Continuing Claims +45K to 2,480



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

11-30-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

*DJ Labor Dept: Harder To Gauge Seasonal Factors At Holidays



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11-30-06 0830ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ US Jobless Claims +34K To 357K In Nov 25 Wk; Survey -3K



By Rebecca Christie
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, a rise that the Labor Department said may be due to seasonal variations that are common to the holiday season in the last weeks of the calendar year.

Jobless claims increased by 34,000 to 357,000 in the week ending Nov. 25, the Labor Department said Thursday. New claims for the previous week were revised to 323,000 from a previously reported 321,000.

The median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a decrease of 3,000 claims last week.

Labor Department officials said that seasonal factors contributed to last week's rise in unemployment claims. When not adjusted for seasonal variations, jobless claims fell last week, but they did not fall as much as the Labor Department's model predicted -- thus, claims rose after they were seasonally ajdusted. But holidays make it harder to predict seasonal variations.

The four-week moving average of new claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, increased by 7,250 to 325,000. This is the highest level since June 3.

According to the latest data, unemployment claims have risen two weeks in a row. If this trend continues, it could point to some softening in employment after robust gains in recent months.

The number of workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than a week rose in the week ending Nov. 18, the latest week for which such data are available. These continuing jobless claims increased 45,000 to 2,480,000, the highest since early September.

The jobless rate for workers with unemployment insurance was 1.9%, unchanged from the previous week.

In all, 51 states and territories reported an increase in jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 18, and 2 reported a decrease. California and Illinois had the largest rise, reporting increases of 9,949 and 9,309, respectively. Mississippi had the largest decrease, reporting a drop of 365 new claims.
*DJ US Personal Income +0.4% In Oct; Consensus +0.5%

11/30/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



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*DJ US Personal Spending +0.2% In Oct; Consensus +0.1%



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11-30-06 0830ET

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*DJ Sep Personal Income Unrevised At +0.5%



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*DJ Sep Spending Revised To -0.2% From +0.1%



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*DJ Oct PCE Price Index Ex Food, Energy +0.2% Rate Vs Mo Ago



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*DJ Oct PCE Price Index Ex Food, Energy +2.4% Rate Vs Yr Ago



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=DJ DATA SNAP: US Oct Personal Income Up Less Than Expected


=======================================================
US Personal Income ! Consensus: !
Oct Sep ! Income: +0.5% !
Income +0.4% +0.5% ! Actual: !
Expenditures +0.2% -0.2%r ! +0.4% !
=======================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Personal income grew a bit slower during October, yet still outpaced a modest increase in consumer spending, while inflation gauges held steady.

Personal income advanced at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.4%, after increasing an unrevised 0.5% in September, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Personal spending grew 0.2%, after falling a revised 0.2% in September. Originally, the government said spending grew by 0.1% in September.

The median estimates of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires were a 0.5% climb in personal income during October and a 0.1% increase in consumer spending.

A price index for personal consumption expenditures - or PCE - excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in October compared with a month earlier. It grew 0.2% in September.

Compared with a year earlier, the core PCE price index rose 2.4% last month. It went up 2.4% in September. The Federal Reserve's comfort zone is 1.0% to 2.0% for the inflation gauge. At their last policy meeting, bankers decided to leave interest rates alone, citing a slowing economy and a likelihood inflationary pressures will moderate over time.

While the economy weakened in the third quarter from the second quarter - 2.2% vs 2.6%, its big engine, consumer spending, actually got stronger, recent data show; it is housing that is a heavy drag on growth these days. Thursday's report said spending on durable goods, designed to last three years or longer, grew 0.2% in October, after a 0.1% rise in September. Non-durable goods spending decreased 0.6% in October after a 1.5% drop the previous month. September spending on services rose 0.6%.

A large component of personal income, wages and salaries, increased by 0.6% last month.

After-tax income, also known as disposable personal income, expanded 0.3% in October, after increasing 0.5% during September.

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was negative 0.6% last month, marking the 19th straight month that this measure of savings has been in the red.
happy holiday shopping - Wal Mart warnt ja schon mal vorbeugend für den dezember.



ECONOMIC REPORT
U.S. weekly jobless claims highest in over a year

By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:39 AM ET Nov 30, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of U.S. workers applying for jobless benefits climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week, to 357,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
First time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 34,000 to 357,000 for the week ending Nov. 25. The rise in claims is up from a revised 323,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Initial claims are the highest since Oct. 8, 2005.
Higher levels of initial claims are not unusual at this time of year, when some employers close down for Thanksgiving and other holidays.
The four-week average of new claims, considered a more accurate indicator because it smoothes out events like holidays and strikes, rose by 7,250 to 325,000 for the week ending Nov. 25.
Meanwhile, the number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits jumped by 45,000 during the week ending Nov. 18, to 2.48 million. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, by 18,750 to 2.45 million.
Initial unemployment claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.
The insured unemployment rate -- the percentage of all those covered by unemployment insurance who are collecting benefits -- remained at 1.9% for the week ended Nov. 18.
Robert Schroeder is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-initial-weekly-jobl…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 25.825.709 von nachtschatten am 30.11.06 14:52:24du bist wohl mächtig short wa???:rolleyes:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 25.826.009 von defenderofthecrown am 30.11.06 15:04:16
nein, nicht immer, aber immer öfter. bekanntermassen können kurse ja nur steigen - solange bis es knallt :D
Auch im Barron´s sehen einige die Zeichen an der Wand und die ersten dunklen Wolken am Horizont sich zusammenbrauen - The End is Neigh! :D


http://online.barrons.com/article/SB116475972043935088.html?…

GETTING TECHNICAL
By MICHAEL KAHN


Dark Clouds Are Forming in the Distance
IF EVER THERE WERE A TIME to wake up from a tryptophan-induced state of complacency, it was Monday on Wall Street. Just days after the Thanksgiving feast and last week's 12-year low in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index, the stock market exploded with a rash of selling. We could almost hear the tap-tapping of the pundits' computer keyboards as they wrote their missives on the end of the bull market. It's too bad the charts were not quite in agreement.

No doubt, something changed that day and the tone of the market soured somewhat. Clearly, a U.S. dollar that breaks down yet again in a four-year dollar bear market is not a good thing and from the fundamental side, the Fed is going to have a hard time justifying another rate cut.

But technically, the major stock indexes still sport rising trendlines from respective summer lows. In fact, the Nasdaq came down to kiss its trendline and immediately reversed to the upside (see Chart 1). Textbooks could not provide a better example of an upside reversal at support.

Chart 1



Wednesday's strong rally, with across the board participation from most sectors of the market, shows the Nasdaq running away from Johnny-come-lately bulls, just as strong markets usually do. But if something did change this week, the real question is whether this rally will last. For that, we'll have to dig a little deeper into the evidence.

Last week, we laid out a few of the signs that could spell the end to the rally (see Getting Technical, "The Turkey-and-Santa Effect on Stocks1," Nov. 22). The first were collective breaks in major index trendlines and so far, this has not happened. We can argue that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken its own trendline to the downside but it was the only one. We can chalk that up to a change in leadership away from big stocks.

The second sign was volume. Many will be quick to point out that Monday's decline came on relatively ordinary volume and not the kind we'd expect when everyone rushes for the exit doors together.

More importantly, we need to keep an eye on volume on rallies now. If there is heavy activity when the market goes up, then we can conclude there is still healthy demand out there. If activity is light, then we'll know something is wrong.

But the key for this market now, short of an actual breakdown in price, is sentiment. The ratio of put option activity on market indexes as recorded by the CBOE remains at high enough levels to tell us that there are still a lot of doubters out there. When these people decide that they cannot watch the market rally without them, they will buy. And when they do, the market's fuel supply will finally be exhausted. Theoretically, if everyone is bullish, there will be nobody left to buy.

Outside of the stock market, there are a few more conditions to watch. A lot has been said of the 25% slide in oil prices since the summer and how that will line consumers' pockets with cash to spend. We hear reports that "inflation is under control" but the charts beg to differ.

Specifically, the old formulation of the CRB Index, a basket of commodities prices including energy, foods, metals and "softs" (coffee, sugar and cocoa), is nearing a critical level (see Chart 2).

Chart 2



After a September slump courtesy of the energy price decline, it has come all the way back to knock on the door of a major upside breakout. Since 2001, the index has been in a bull market but it spent the better part of this year in a trading range. A move above that range at approximately 401 would represent the resumption of the long-term trend higher.

Granted, a falling U.S. dollar impacts commodities prices since the latter are priced in dollars. However, the combination spells inflation in anyone's book, and it is this reason why the chain events from dollar to commodities to interest rates are a looming problem for stocks.

So, for now, the short-term picture is still decent. But to answer the earlier question about the rally lasting, it does not look like it can. We cannot know exactly when the top will arrive and the short-term evidence does not yet support one coming. But the writing on the wall is starting to appear once again.
*DJ US Chicago Purch Mgmt Adj Nov Index 49.9 Vs Oct 53.5

*DJ US Chi Pur Mgmt Nov Prices Paid Index 60.2 Vs Oct 62.5

*DJ US Chi Pur Mgmt Nov Supplier Deliveries 43.0; Oct 54.1

*DJ US Chi Purch Mgmt Nov Employment Index 49.4 Vs Oct 57.0

*DJ US Chi Purch Mgmt Nov New Orders Index 52.0 Vs Oct 54.1



=DJ Chicago PMI Hits Lowest Level Since April 2003

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The National Association of Purchasing Management Chicago said Thursday its index of area business activity fell to 49.9 in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, its lowest level since April 2003.

The November level, which compared with 53.5 registered the previous month, was well below Wall Street expectations and provides the latest evidence of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a reading of 54.8. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while a reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The data could help boost expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates to help breathe life into the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee has opted to leave its benchmark federal funds rate at 5.25% at each of its last three meetings, after steadily raising rates for two years to combat inflationary pressure.

However, inflation remains a concern. Earlier this week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, remains "uncomfortably high." On Thursday, the Labor Department said that the price index for core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.4% in October compared with the same period a year ago, which is above the comfort zone of Fed officials.

The Chicago index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana, which is among the larger industrial areas in the U.S. The Chicago survey is closely watched for clues to the index of the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM November survey will be released Friday at 10:00 a.m. EST.

NAPM-Chicago noted in a press release that the index has fallen in eight of the past 11 months.

"Therefore the combination of level and trend in the November report raises the possibility that adjustments to the current slowing can, in turn, trigger a recession in the near future," NAPM-Chicago said.

Among the categories in the Chicago index, the supplier deliveries component fell to 43.0 in November from 54.1 the month before. Prices paid fell to 60.2 from 62.5. The employment index slipped to 49.4 from 57.0 and the new orders index fell to 52.0 from 54.1 in October.
*DJ US ISM Nov Mfg Business Index 49.5 Vs Oct 51.2

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*DJ US ISM Nov Prices Index 53.5 Vs Oct 47.0



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*DJ US ISM Nov Mfg Business Index Expected 52.0



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*DJ US ISM Nov Employment Index 49.2 VS Oct 50.8



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*DJ US ISM Nov New Orders Index 48.7 Vs Oct 52.1



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*DJ US ISM Nov Production Index 48.5 Vs Oct 51.9



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*DJ US ISM Nov Inventories 49.7 Vs Oct 49.4



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=DJ DATA SNAP/ISM Mfg: US Factory Sector Contracts In Nov


=======================================================
Nov Oct ! !
ISM Index 49.5 51.2 ! ISM Forecast: 52.0 !
Prices 53.5 47.0 ! Actual: 49.5 !
Employment 49.2 50.8 ! !
=======================================================
By Laurence Norman
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. manufacturing activity saw a surprise contraction in November, the first time the sector failed to grow in 42 months, as new orders, employment and production dipped.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said Friday its index of manufacturing activity fell to 49.5 in November from 51.2 the prior month. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity, while those below indicate contraction.

The report was expected to show a modest uptick to 52.0.

The last time the manufacturing index contracted was in April 2003. The report also showed the first sub-50 readings in 42 months for new orders and production components.

New orders in November fell to 48.7 from 52.1 the prior month. The production index hit 48.5 versus 51.9 in October.

The employment component fell to 49.2 from 50.8 in October.

Prices were one of the few areas to increase, with a November reading of 53.5 from 47.0 in October. However, the prices component remains lower than September's 61.0.

Inventories came in at 49.7 in November compared with October's 49.4.

Export growth remained strong at 56.9, compared with 57.8 in October, with Norbert J. Ore, chairman of the ISM manufacturing survey, saying the "weaker dollar continues to fuel that segment."

The report comes as the economy shows signs of a significant slowdown, with third quarter growth dropping to an annualized 2.2%.

Those signs of weaker growth have many market participants expecting an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the first months of 2007. The Fed has held its target funds rate at 5.25% for three straight meetings.

If the November reading of the ISM were to be maintained for an extended period of time, it would be consistent with a 2.4% annualized increase in the U.S. gross domestic product, according to the report.
DJ Dollar Drops Vs Euro On Productivity Data



NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar fell early in New York Tuesday following news that unit labor costs were revised sharply lower for two quarters in a favorable sign for inflation.

Non-farm business sector productivity increased 0.2% during July through September, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Originally, Labor said productivity was unchanged during the third quarter.

Wall Street had expected an upward revision in productivity for the third quarter - but a bigger one. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for productivity to rise at a 0.5% annual rate.

Meanwhile, third-quarter unit labor costs - a gauge of inflationary pressures - rose by 2.3% versus an expected 3.2% advance.

Unit labor costs in the second quarter decreased however, falling 2.3%; originally, Labor reported a 5.4% surge.

After starting the session down across the board, the dollar dropped against its European rivals on the back of the data but showed only a modest slip against the yen.

Early in New York, the euro stood at $1.3354 from $1.3344 just before the release of the data and from $1.3326 late Monday, while the dollar was at Y114.49 from Y114.55 pre-data and from Y115.32 late Monday, according to EBS. The euro was at Y152.90 from Y153.70 late Monday. The dollar stood at CHF1.1891 from CHF1.1943 while the U.K. pound was at $1.9800 from $1.9802 late Monday.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing November index which is expected to have slipped to 55.5 from 57.1 in October, as well as a factory orders report.
*DJ US ISM Nov Non-Mfg Business Index 58.9 Vs Oct 57.1

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*DJ US ISM Nov Non-Mfg Business Index Expected 55.5



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*DJ US ISM Nov Non-Mfg Employment Index 51.6 Vs Oct 51.0



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*DJ US ISM Nov Non-Mfg Prices Index 55.6 VS Oct 51.9



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*DJ US ISM Nov Non-Mfg New Orders Index 57.1 Vs Oct 56.5



Corrected December 5, 2006 10:10 ET (15:10 GMT)

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*DJ CORRECT: US ISM Nov Non-Mfg New Orders Index 57.1 Vs Oct 56.5



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=DJ DATA SNAP ISM Non-Mfg:Service Sector Expands Strongly Nov


=========================================================
ISM Non-Mfg Index Nov Oct ! Forecast: 55.5 !
Business 58.9 57.1 ! Actual: 58.9 !
Employment 51.6 51.0 ! !
Prices 55.6 51.9 ! !
=========================================================


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy outside of the manufacturing sector expanded at its strongest pace in six months in November.

The Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday that its non-manufacturing index, which is comprised mostly of service-related companies, moved to a reading of 58.9 in November from 57.1 in October.

Index readings above 50 indicate expansion of activity, while readings under 50 denote contraction.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a reading of 55.5.

The November increase is the 44th consecutive month of expansion and represents the strongest monthly expansion since May. It comes after the November ISM manufacturing index dropped below 50 for the first time since April 2003.

In November, 11 of the 18 industries surveyed reported increased business activity, four reported decreased activity, and three indicated unchanged activity compared to October.

In the report, the ISM said its prices index rose to 55.6, from the prior month's 51.9, indicating a speeding pace of gains. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing employment index edged up to 51.6 from 51.0 in October.

The group also said that its non-manufacturing new orders index was 57.1, from 56.5 the month before.

The ISM service sector report comes after Friday's manufacturing report dropped to a reading of 49.5 from 51.2.

That report provoked a strong reaction in financial markets, suggesting the slowdown in the housing and auto sectors was spreading to the rest of the economy.
*DJ US Factory Orders -4.7% In Oct; Consensus -4.5%

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*DJ Oct Factory Orders, Excluding Transportation, -0.8%



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*DJ Oct Factory Orders, Excluding Defense, -3.6%



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*DJ Oct Durable Goods Revised To -8.2% From -8.3%



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*DJ Sep Factory Orders Revised To +1.7% From +2.1%



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=DJ DATA SNAP: US Sep Factory Orders Drop Biggest In 6 Yrs


=========================================================
US Factory Orders ! !
Oct Sep ! Consensus: !
Total Orders: -4.7% +1.7%r ! -4.5% !
Ex-Transportation: -0.8% -3.1%r ! Actual: !
Durable Goods: -8.2%r +8.7% ! -4.7% !
=========================================================

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory orders took their sharpest fall in six years during October, dropping even more than expected and sending another signal of weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Factory-goods orders decreased 4.7%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. September orders rose 1.7%; bookings were originally estimated 2.1% higher.

The big drop in October exceeded expectations on Wall Street, which had been looking for a 4.5% decline. It was the largest decrease since 8.6% in July 2000.

Recent signs point to weakness in the manufacturing arena. The Institute for Supply Management reported Friday its index of manufacturing activity for November dropped below 50 for the first time in 42 months; the gauge receded to 49.5 from 51.2 in October. Readings below 50 indicate manufacturing sector contraction.

Tuesday's data showed durable-goods orders fell 8.2% in October, revised up from a previous estimate, released last week, of an 8.3% decline.

Non-durable goods orders fell 0.3% in October, after a 5.9% plunge in September.

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft - a key barometer of investment by businesses - dived 4.9%, after a 3.1% gain in September.

Consumer-goods orders advanced 0.5% in October, after decreasing 6.7% in September. Consumer durable goods orders were up 3.3%; consumer non-durables decreased 0.3%.

Demand for transportation-related goods plummeted 21.6%. Non-defense aircraft and parts fell 44.6%. Orders for motor vehicle bodies and parts retreated 0.6%. But defense aircraft and parts orders were up 21.4%. Ships and boats rose 1.4%.

Minus transportation orders, overall factory orders would have been 0.8% lower.

Demand dropped 10.6% for computers and electronic products

Orders rose 0.8% for primary metals but fell 2.2% for fabricated metals.

Bookings for electrical equipment and appliances increased 4.7% and rose 2.4% for machinery.

Capital goods orders were 19.0% lower in October. Demand for all non-defense capital goods - business equipment meant to last 10 years or more - decreased 15.5%.

Defense capital goods plunged 41.5%. Excluding defense, all other durable goods decreased 3.6% in October.

The report showed factory shipments inched up 0.1% in October. Inventories increased 0.4%.

Unfilled orders, a sign of future demand, advanced by 1.2%.
=DJ DATA SNAP: German Oct Mfg Orders Fall Unexpectedly

========================================================
German Manufacturing Orders ! !
Oct Sep ! Consensus: +1.2% MM!
On Mo (adj) -1.1% -3.0%r ! Actual: -1.1% MM!
On Yr (unadj) +10.0% +5.3%r ! !
r-revised ! !
========================================================

LONDON (Dow Jones)--German manufacturing orders unexpectedly fell on the month in October as domestic orders declined, data from the German Economics Ministry showed Wednesday.

The volume of new orders dropped 1.1% on the month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, extending September's 3.0% decline. The monthly rate of change for September was revised down from a previously reported 2.5% drop.

The data are well below economists' forecasts of a 1.2% gain on the month.

The number of big-ticket orders remained above average, but less so than in previous months, the ministry said.

"The current level of demand for industrial goods is significantly higher than in the second quarter, but weaker than in the third quarter, which benefitted from an extraordinary number of big ticket orders," the economics ministry said. "The development in October should therefore be viewed as a normalization."

A two-month comparison showed that manufacturing orders in September-October were down 1.7% on the previous two months, but the economics ministry pointed out that "given the high volume of existing orders, prospects for dynamic industrial production in the final quarter are good."

Domestic orders dropped 2.6% from September, after increasing the previous three months, the data showed. Foreign orders, meanwhile, failed to recover September's heavy loss, rising only 0.6% on the month in October. They dropped 6.8% on the month in September

Domestic orders for capital goods were particularly weak during October, down 6.5% on the month. Foreign capital goods orders rose 0.2% from September, despite a 2.8% drop in orders from countries outside the 12-nation euro zone.

In an annual comparison, the volume of total manufacturing orders rose 10.0% in October, on an unadjusted basis, after rising 5.3% on the year in September, the ministry said.

The following table compares preliminary seasonally adjusted October and September data for German manufacturing orders volume.

Index values are based on 2000=100.


Oct Sep Change
Total Orders 119.6 120.9 -1.1%
Domestic Orders 107.0 109.9 -2.6%
Foreign Orders 135.4 134.6 +0.6%
Orders to makers of:
Producer goods 120.4 120.0 +0.3%
Capital goods 122.6 126.1 -2.8%
Consumer/durable goods 104.8 102.9 +1.8%

The following table includes preliminary unadjusted October manufacturing orders volume data for Germany and percentage changes from October 2005.

Index values are based on 2000=100.


Oct Change on Year
Total Orders 120.6 +10.0%
Domestic Orders 109.0 +10.4%
Foreign Orders 135.1 +9.7%
Orders to makers of:
Producer goods 121.7 +13.8%
Capital goods 122.7 +7.5%
Consumer goods 108.6 +8.5%
moooorgen kinder wiiirds waaas geben ;) lol, der typ hier hat auch schon erkannt dass aktien eigentlich nur steigen können, egal was für zahlen morgen kommen. fazit: stocks will either rise or they will gain :D - oder meinte er fall statt rise ... ... wir werdens sehen.


If the report is much weaker than expected, bonds are likely to rally, while stocks, the dollar and commodities are likely to rise, he said.
On the other hand, if the report is stronger-than-expected, bonds could sell off and stocks could gain, as long as the report is not so strong that talk is revived about further rate hikes from the Fed, Crescenzi said.


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Healthy payroll growth expected for November
Jobless rate likely will rise to 4.5%, economists say
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:46 PM ET Dec 7, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. job growth probably picked up slightly in November, economists said, looking ahead to the Labor Department's report on Friday.
Policymakers, economists and investors will be watching the payrolls report carefully for signs of a weaker economy to go along with other symptoms of slower growth.
The report is unlikely to show any broad economic slowdown, that there's little contagion from the collapsing housing sector and the slumping auto industry, economists said. They expect nonfarm payrolls grew by 110,000, compared with 92,000 in October and an average of 135,000 over the past six months. See Economic Calendar.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 4.5% from a cyclical low of 4.4%.
"However, we would not read this as a signal of a deteriorating labor market as the unemployment rate can be volatile month-to-month, and the trend in the rate is still downward over the last several months," wrote John Ryding, chief U.S. economist for Bear Stearns, in a weekly note to clients.
Any signs of a significantly weaker labor market could nudge the Federal Reserve closer to cutting interest rates, as investors now expect in March or May.
"The second straight month of sub-par job gains will be another small step towards Fed easing in 2007," wrote Avery Shenfeld, an economist for CIBC World Markets, in a weekly note to clients.
The ADP employment index suggested that payrolls may have grown by about 170,000 in November, leading some economists to boost their forecasts.
But the ADP report had no impact on the payrolls options market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which expects growth of about 87,000, said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co.
"Clearly, the market is leaning on the side of weakness," Crescenzi wrote in an email. If the report is much weaker than expected, bonds are likely to rally, while stocks, the dollar and commodities are likely to rise, he said.
On the other hand, if the report is stronger-than-expected, bonds could sell off and stocks could gain, as long as the report is not so strong that talk is revived about further rate hikes from the Fed, Crescenzi said.
The data released in the past week have been "consistent with moderate growth in employment," wrote Goldman Sachs economists in an email on Thursday.
At the high end are forecasters such as Brian Jones of Citigroup Global Markets, who sees payroll gains of about 140,000 along with an upward revision to October to about 150,000. Jones is counting on hiring in the services and fewer layoffs in construction and manufacturing.
"Labor market conditions remain tight," said Dean Maki, economist for Barclays Capital, in his weekly research note. He does expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%, as October's two-tenths drop was "overdone."
"A soft economy, particularly in the key cyclical industries, has to, at some point, start to take its toll on hiring," Shenfeld said. Shenfeld argued that construction layoffs should accelerate as builders complete the homes started during the more optimistic summer months.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, compared with 0.4% in October, which would push the year-over-year gain to a cyclical high of 4.2%, noted Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros.
Despite the rosier news on unit labor costs reported earlier this week, the Fed remains on guard against wage-push inflation stemming from a tight labor market. Even a 0.2% rise in hourly earnings would push the year-over-year increase to 4.1%, the highest since 2001.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/healthy-payroll-growth…
*DJ US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +132K; Consensus +110K

12/08/2006
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*DJ US Nov Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.5%



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*DJ US Nov Average Hourly Earnings +$0.03 To $16.94



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*DJ US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls -15K; Svc-Producing +172K



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*DJ US Nov Overall Workweek 0.0 Hour To 33.9 Hours



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*DJ US Oct Payrolls Revised To +79K From +92K



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*DJ US Oct Unemployment Left Unrevised At 4.4%



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=DJ DATA SNAP: US Payrolls Revised Dn For Oct, Up For Sep


==================================================================
Nov Employment Report ! Consensus: !
Nov Oct ! Payrolls: +110K !
Payrolls +132K +79Kr ! !
Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.4% ! Actual: +132K !
Hourly Earnings $16.94 $16.91 ! !
==================================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. payroll growth accelerated during November, while worker wages grew slightly less than expected, the government said in a report providing favorable signs for the economy and inflation.

Non-farm payrolls increased by 132,000 after growing a revised 79,000 in October and 203,000 in September, the Labor Department said Friday.

Previous reports showed job growth of 92,000 in October and 148,000 in September.

The unemployment rate in November rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.5% from 4.4% in October.

Average hourly earnings increased $0.03, or 0.2%, to $16.94 from October's $16.91. Earnings were up 4.1% from a year earlier.

Some of the numbers were a surprise on Wall Street. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 110,000-job increase in payrolls. Average hourly earnings were expected to go up by 0.3%. The jobless rate was seen inching to 4.5% from 4.4%.

The Federal Reserve stopped raising the federal funds rate over the summer and has held it at 5.25% as the economy slows down. Wall Street is speculating when policymakers might lower rates, sifting through all data to detect economic strength and inflationary pressures.

The Labor Department Friday said hiring last month in goods-producing industries fell by 40,000. Within this group, manufacturing firms decreased 15,000 jobs, while construction firms shed 29,000 jobs.

Service-sector employment increased by 172,000. Retail added 20,000. Leisure and hospitality gained 31,000 jobs.

The average work week held steady at 33.9 hours.
Odds of interest rate cut by Q1 2007 at 36% after jobs data

Odds of rate cut by Q1 2007 was at 48% late Thursday
huuuuiiiibuh, das zinsgespenst - die britische variante:


DJ DATA SNAP: UK CPI Highest Since Records Began In Jan '97


============================================================
Consumer Price Index ! !
Nov Oct ! Consensus: +0.2% MM !
CPI ! +2.6% YY !
on month +0.3% +0.2% ! Actual: +0.3% MM !
on year +2.7% +2.4% ! +2.7% YY !
RPI ! Consensus: +0.3% MM !
on month +0.3% +0.1% ! +3.8% YY !
on year +3.9% +3.7% ! Actual: +0.3% MM !
! +3.9% YY !
============================================================
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Consumer price inflation in the U.K. hit a record high in November, raising the chances of an interest rate rise in the New Year.

The Office for National Statistics said Tuesday that the CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in November, while year-on-year it reached 2.7%.

The annual rate is the highest since CPI records began in January 1997, and therefore also the highest since the Bank of England gained independent control over setting interest rates later that year.

The annual rate was sharply up from October, when it was 2.4%. It was also ahead of a Dow Jones Newswires survey, in which economists were expecting CPI to rise 0.2% on the month and to rise 2.6% on the year.

The main cause of the CPI spike was the cost of transport, where prices for fuels and lubricants fell less in November than in Novemeber 2005. Overall, transport costs added 0.19 percentage point to the annual rate of inflation in November.

Between October and November, the average price of petrol fell by 0.4 pence per liter this year, compared with a fall of 3.6 pence per liter a year earlier, ONS said. ONS added that the cost of air travel fell by less in November than it did a year earlier.

The sharp rise in annual inflation takes the rate significantly above the BOE Monetary Policy Committee's target rate of 2.0%, and will add pressure on the MPC to raise interest rates further early in 2007. If CPI veers from target by 1.0% above or below 2.0%, BOE Governor Mervyn King is required to write a letter of explanation to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown.

However, in its latest Inflation Report, published last month, the MPC suggested it was likely CPI would spike upwards in the near term before falling back to target by mid-2007, so it's possible the committee will stay its hand at least until the next Inflation Report is published in February.

ONS said there were also upward effects on CPI in November from rising prices in recreation and culture, and housing and household services, the latter driven by a small upward tick in gas bills.

There was further concern for the MPC from a rise in the retail price index, which is used as the basis for many U.K. wage negotiations.

RPI inflation rose 0.3% on the month in November, and 3.9% on the year. It was forecast to increase 0.3% in monthly terms and to rise 3.8% on the year.

The annual RPI rate is the highest since May 1998. The fact that it is so high will lead to worries of higher wage demands from workers, adding to inflationary pressures in the economy.

ONS said the rise in RPI inflation was driven by factors similar to those behind the rise in the CPI, with motoring expenditure the main contributor to the upward move.

Core inflation increased 0.2% on the month and ticked up 1.6% annually. The measurement of core inflation excludes the impact of alcohol, tobacco, food and petrol prices.

The annual core inflation rate last month was 1.4%, so the fact that is going up too will add yet more concern for policymakers.
=DJ DATA SNAP:German ZEW Dec Econ Expectations Rise To -19.0

===========================================================
ZEW Indicator ! !
Dec Nov ! !
Econ Sentiment -19.0 -28.5 ! Consensus: -25.0 !
! Actual: -19.0 !
===========================================================

MANNHEIM, Germany (Dow Jones)--German business expectations improved sharply in December on a broadening economic recovery, a survey by the Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, showed Tuesday.

The Mannheim-based think-tank's expectations index rose to a reading of -19.0 in December, after declining for the 10th time in a row to -28.5 in November, which was the lowest level since March 1993. December's reading marked the highest level since August this year.

However, the expectations index still signals a slowdown in German business activity and is below its historical average of 33.7.

Figures are above expectations. A Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists predicted a slight rise to -25.0 in December.

A reading above zero signals that more analysts are optimistic than pessimistic on the economic outlook.


"The gain of the expectations index is due to a broadening recovery which forms a stable base for 2007," the think tank said, adding that the recovery in the labor market improved consumer confidence.

Currently, exports development is "dynamic" due to the competitiveness of the German economy, it added.

"Orders remain stable and companies are increasingly investing in the expansion of their production capacity," the ZEW said.

The think tank also voiced optimism for the coming months, saying that the expectations index has bottomed out and is getting some tailwind now.

Meanwhile, ZEW President Wolfgang Franz called for more reform efforts in Germany and urged the government to "use the opportunity" of robust economic activity.

Analysts polled by ZEW also were markedly more optimistic about the current general economic situation in Germany, with the December current conditions indicator up at 63.5 points from 53.0 points in April.

The ZEW indicator, which tends to be volatile, shows the difference between the positive and negative forecasts for economic development during the next six months in Germany. It is based this month on the views of 303 analysts and institutional investors.
*DJ Germany's IfW Sees '07 GDP Growth At 2.1% Vs 2.6% In '06

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*DJ Germany's IfW Forecasts 2008 GDP Growth At 1.8%



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*DJ German IfW Sees ECB Raising Rates 25 BPs In Spring 2007



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DJ Germany's IfW Sees 07 GDP Growth At 2.1% Vs 2.6% In 06



BERLIN (Dow Jones)--The German economy is in a strong upswing which should continue next year despite tax hikes, as domestic demand should remain strong, one of Germany's main economic think tanks said Tuesday.

The Kiel-based IfW institute Tuesday raised its growth forecasts, predicting German gross domestic product growth of 2.6% for this year and 2.1% for next year. For 2008, it forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8%.

In October, IfW together with Germany's other five leading institutes' forecast 1.8% growth for this year and 1.4% for 2007 as part of their joint autumn outlook report.

In its last individual forecast in August, IfW forecast growth of 2.4% for this year and 1.0% for next.

"Today, we assume the risks of Germany's economy entering a phase of weakness are clearly smaller than three months ago," IfW said in its latest report.

Tax increases, fewer incentives from monetary policy and slower export growth due to a weaker global economy will burden the economy, but "from today's point of view, the (growth dynamic) of the domestic economy is so high that we can assume a further rise in the overall capacity utilization."

The think tank said companies expect the scheduled value-added tax increase to 19% from 16% to dampen the economy next year but said they expect a further upward movement later, without providing specifics.

Lower energy prices will also help boost domestic demand, IfW said.

Exports are forecast to rise 13% this year, 6.6% in 2007 and 4.5% in 2008.

In its forecast, the institute also warned against excessive wage increases.

"The upswing will be longer and stronger and unemployment will fall more if wage agreements rise only as little as they have done over the previous three years," IfW said.

Turning to the monetary policy in the euro zone, the think tank said it expects the European Central Bank to raise its key lending rate 25 basis points to 3.75% in spring 2007, then leaving interest rates on hold until the end of 2008.

IfW forecasts a public sector deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2006 and 1.2% in 2007 and 1.3% of GDP in 2008.
*DJ Fed Leaves Rates At 5.25%; Keeps Focus On Inflation Risk

12/12/2006
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*DJ FOMC: "Some Inflation Risks Remain" Despite Slower Econ



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*DJ FOMC: Any Future Hikes Would Depend On Data, Outlook



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*DJ FOMC: Econ Slower This Yr On "Substantial" Housing Cooling



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*DJ FOMC: "Recent Indicators Have Been Mixed"



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*DJ FOMC: Econ "Likely To Expand At A Moderate Pace On Balance"



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*DJ FOMC: Core Inflation Readings "Have Been Elevated"



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*DJ FOMC: High "Resource Utilization" Poses Inflation Risk



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*DJ FOMC: Inflation Pressures Likely To Moderate Over Time



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*DJ FOMC: Lower Energy Prices To Help Inflation Moderate



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*DJ FOMC: Inflation Expectations Still Contained



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*DJ FOMC: Voted 10-1 For Unchanged Federal Funds Rate



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*DJ FOMC: Lacker Dissented Funds Decision, Wanted 25BP Hike



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=DJ Fed Leaves Rates At 5.25%, Keeps Focus On Inflation Risk



WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve on Tuesday held the federal funds rate steady at 5.25% for a fourth-straight time, while signaling it may yet raise interest rates again if inflation doesn't subside as it expects.

Building on language from statements at its previous two meetings, the central bank's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said the economy slowed during 2006 in response to "a substantial cooling of the housing market," but it remains concerned about "elevated" core inflation and inflationary pressures.

The Fed added the word "substantial" to its description of the housing market slowdown.

"Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year," the FOMC said in a statement accompanying its rate decision. "Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters."

The FOMC repeated its assessment that inflationary pressures "seem likely to moderate over time" thanks to a reduced push from energy prices, "contained inflation expectations" and the lagged effect of the 17-straight interest-rate hikes it made from the summer of 2004 to the summer of 2006.

But the committee also continued to qualify that outlook by saying "some inflation risks remain," core inflation indicators "have been elevated" and inflationary pressures could be sustained by high "resource utilization," a term referring to tight job markets and high industrial operating rates.

In a speech late last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described core inflation - excluding food and energy - as "uncomfortably high," as economic growth slowed roughly in line with the Fed's projections. In recent months core inflation has remained above the central bank's understood comfort zone of 1%-2%, but it has stayed within the range of the Fed's inflation forecast for this year.

With its statement Tuesday, the Fed again emphasized the importance of new economic data. "The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these (inflationary) risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth," the statement said.

The Fed voted 10-to-1 to leave the fed funds rate unchanged. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented for the fourth straight meeting, preferring a quarter percentage-point increase. Together with the FOMC's repeated warning about inflation risks, Lacker's continued dissent could be taken as a sign of a sustained degree of Fed vigilance on inflation.


Fed, Financial Mkts Have Differed On Rate Outlook

The mostly static wording of the FOMC's statement was consistent with financial market expectations, which have been less inclined in recent weeks to expect the Fed to ease credit in the near-term. "Market reaction to an inherently unchanged statement is likely to be fairly muted," Merrill Lynch government debt strategist Joseph Shatz said in a note to clients ahead of the meeting.

Last Friday's report of relatively robust jobs growth in November indicated the economy has been stronger than anticipated in some quarters, paring back expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2007. Market adjustments in the wake of the jobs data suggest there will be little reaction to steady policy and language from the Fed, Shatz said.

After Tuesday's FOMC statement, "we'll still have an argument about whether the next move by the Fed will be to raise rates or to cut them," said Wachovia Corp. economist Mark Vitner. With the economic slowdown limited to housing and auto production, the Fed is getting the "soft landing" for the overall economy that it wants, Vitner said.

In a forecast released Monday, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said the Fed will likely cut its short-term rate target a quarter percentage-point by the end of 2007 to 5.0%, but the association said some members of its advisory panel thought the Fed had more credit-tightening in store.

Public remarks by Bernanke and other Fed monetary policymakers have stressed the uncertainty of the outlook for future FOMC decisions, in contrast to some financial market expectations that the central bank would cut interest rates early next year.

Fed Governor Mark Warsh warned in a Nov. 21 speech against reading too much into market expectations of Fed policy because "distilling conclusions from markets is an imprecise exercise." Warsh said he foresaw "a wider range of possible outcomes" for both economic growth and inflation than implied by some financial market indicators.

In another speech Dec. 1, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn emphasized the uncertainty and potential unreliability of economic signals ranging from inflation expectations to housing valuations. "We are uncertain about where the economy has been, where it is now, and where it is going," Kohn said. "Measurement difficulties are rife."

Home sales and housing construction have continued to weaken, but economists differ about how much of a ripple effect the broader economy will feel. The U.S. economy seems to have slowed in the third quarter by less than initially thought. The Commerce Department revised up its estimate of the July-September expansion by 0.6 percentage point to a 2.2% annual rate, compared with a 2.6% pace of growth in the second quarter.

In public remarks Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that as the housing market slows to a more sustainable trend, the U.S. economy retains diverse sources of strength in consumer spending, the service sector and corporate profits.
*DJ US Nov Retail & Food Sales +1.0%; Consensus +0.2%

12/13/2006
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*DJ US Nov Retail & Food Sales Ex-Autos +1.1%



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*DJ Oct Retail & Food Sales Revised To -0.1% From -0.4%



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=DJ DATA SNAP: US Nov Retail Sales Climb Above Expectations


=====================================================
US Retail Sales Nov Oct ! Consensus: !
Overall: +1.0% -0.1%r ! +0.2% !
Ex-Autos: +1.1% -0.3%r ! Actual: !
! +1.0% !
=====================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Retail sales unexpectedly surged during November as shoppers flocked to the malls and went online for holiday gifts, providing a fourth-quarter boost to the slowing economy.

Sales advanced by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. October sales decreased by 0.1%, revised from a previously reported 0.4% decline.

Wall Street expected a gain - but not a big one. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had overall retail sales rising just 0.2% in November.

The retail sales report is a window to how Americans part with their money. And consumer spending is a pivotal part of the equation used to figure out how the economy is faring. Spending makes up about 70% of gross domestic product.

GDP rose 2.2% in the third quarter, slower than the second-quarter's 2.6% growth. Weighing on the economy are the housing slump and weakness in manufacturing.

But auto and parts retail sales increased 0.9% in November, after advancing 1.0% in October. Outside the auto sector, all other retail sales climbed 1.1%. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. Sales excluding autos were 0.3% lower in October.

Gas station sales increased 2.3% last month after falling by 5.3% in October. Stripping away sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers was up 0.9% in November.

Excluding both autos and gasoline, all other retail sales increased 0.9% in November.

Sales rose 0.9% at health and personal care stores; 0.7% at restaurants and bars; 0.9% at food and beverage stores; 4.6% at electronics and appliance stores; 1.8% at building material and garden stores; 0.4% at general merchandise stores; 1.3% at mail order and Internet retailers; and 0.8% at sporting goods, hobby and book stores.

Sales fell 0.1% at furniture stores and were flat at clothing stores.
*DJ Eurodlr Futures Pare Rate Cut Odds On Strong Retail Sales

12/13/2006
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*DJ Eurodlr Futures See 20% Odds Of 4.75% In 2Q Vs 56% Prior



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*DJ Eurodlr Futures See 8% Odds Of 4.5% In 3Q Vs 48% Prior



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DJ Strong Retail Sales Shrink Rate Futures Odds For '07 Cuts



By Jesse Thomas
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Interest rate futures early Wednesday reflected a lowering of market expectations for rate cuts next year after the release of November retail sales data showed much better than expected results.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales grew a seasonably adjusted 1% last month, compared with a forecast for a 0.2% gain by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Excluding sales in the auto sector, retail sales climbed 1.1% last month, compared with an expected 0.3% rise.

The data suggest the economy may be showing more strength than some interest rate market participants had been anticipating. Eurodollar futures, traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, reduced their expectations of rate cuts next year as contracts dropped as much as 10 basis points, or 10/100ths of a percentage point, following the release.

The price move comes the day after the Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth straight meeting, which was widely expected.

Eurodollar prices climbed higher following the Fed's decisions. The FOMC expressed some concern in its accompanying policy statement about future economic growth, more so than in previous months. Wednesday's price drop erases the gains seen Tuesday.

The March Eurodollar contract early Wednesday is pricing in 44% odds for the FOMC to reduce its benchmark rate to 5% in the first quarter next year. The contract had priced in 60% odds before the retail sales data.

The June contract remains fully priced for a 5% rate in the second quarter. However, the contract is pricing in a 24% chance the rate will fall to 4.75% in that timeframe, down from 56% odds before the data. Immediately following the release, the contract priced in a 20% chance for 4.75%.

The September contract, which measures the market's expectations for the third quarter next year, remains fully priced for a 4.75% rate. Yet, the contract prices in an 8% probability for a 4.5% rate, compared with 48% odds prior to the strong retail sales data.

Eurodollar futures are commonly used by traders to bet on short-term U.S. interest rate expectations, although they are actually linked to three-month projections for the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor.

The February federal-funds futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade dropped back slightly in price, and now reflects a 4% chance for the FOMC to cut the rate to 5% at its Jan. 30-31 meeting. Prior to the retail sales data, the contract priced in 8% odds.

Fed-funds futures enable participants to measure rate expectations for individual FOMC meetings. The contracts are directly linked to overnight U.S. rates.
*DJ DOE: US Crude Oil Stks -4.3M Bbls In Wk; Seen -1.3M

12/13/2006
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*DJ DOE: US Gasoline Stks -100,000 Bbls In Wk; Seen +900,000



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*DJ DOE: US Distillate Stks -500,000 Bbls In Wk; Seen +300,000



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*DJ DOE: US Refineries Ran At 89.1%; Seen 91.1%
*DJ US Nov Import Prices +0.2%; Consensus -0.1%

12/14/2006
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*DJ US Nov Non-Petroleum Import Prices +0.7%



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*DJ US Nov Petroleum Import Prices -1.6%



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DJ US Import Prices Up 0.2% In Nov; Consensus -0.1%



By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Prices for imported goods rose modestly during November despite a drop in petroleum costs, posting the first increase in three months.

Import prices climbed by 0.2%, after falling 2.3% in October and 2.2% in September, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The 0.2% increase topped Wall Street expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected November import prices would slip by 0.1%.

In the 12 months through November, import prices increased by 1.2%. From November 2004 through November 2005, prices went up 6.4%.

Petroleum import prices tumbled by 1.6% last month compared to October, and rose 1.5% on the year.

Excluding petroleum, import prices were up 0.7% in November versus October and 1.3% on the year.

The Federal Reserve decided this week to hold the federal funds rate at 5.25% a fourth straight time, judging the economy will expand modestly going forward and inflation pressures will likely moderate over time.

The Labor Department data Thursday said prices for imported capital goods were unchanged last month, as were consumer goods import prices.

Prices for non-petroleum industrial supplies and materials imports rose 2.9%. Natural gas surged by 30.3%, the largest increase since 39.5% in November 2004. Foods, feeds, and beverages prices increased 0.4%.

Import prices were unchanged on the month for goods from the European Union. Prices increased 1.7% for goods from Canada and were down 0.2% for products from Mexico. Prices from China were unchanged. Import prices from Japan decreased 0.1%.

Overall U.S. export prices rose 0.4% last month. Export prices grew 3.9% in the 12 months since November 2005.

Prices of agricultural exports increased 4.4%, and prices of non-agricultural exports rose 0.1%.
DJ US Jobless Claims -20K To 304K In Dec 9 Wk; Survey -4K

12/14/2006
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*DJ US Dec 2 Week Continuing Claims -33K to 2,477,000



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*DJ US Dec 2 Week Jobless Claims Unrevised At 324K



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DJ US Jobless Claims -20K To 304K In Dec 9 Wk; Survey -4K



By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The number of idled workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to its lowest level in two months.

New claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 304,000 in the week ended Dec. 9 from an unrevised 324,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The level was the lowest since new claims dropped to 300,000 the week ending Oct. 14.

Wall Street expected a smaller drop. The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was claims falling by 4,000 to 320,000.

The four-week moving average for jobless claims fell by 1,500 to 327,250.

The unemployment rate rose in November but, at 4.5%, still suggests a tight labor market - the 0.1-percentage-point increase was from a five-year-low 4.4% in October. In a statement this week explaining its decision to hold the federal funds rate at 5.25% a fourth time in a row, the Federal Reserve said inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. The Fed, nonetheless, noted a high level of resource use that has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Thursday's data gave the latest reading on continuing jobless claims, which showed a decrease. The number of workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than a week declined by 33,000 to 2,477,000 in the week ended Dec. 2, the latest week for which such data are available.

The jobless rate for workers with unemployment insurance was 1.9% in the week ended Dec. 2, unchanged from the previous week.

State by state, 47 states and territories reported an increase in new jobless claims in the Dec. 2 week, while six reported a decrease. The state breakdown data are made up of claims not adjusted for seasonal factors. North Carolina reported the biggest increase in unadjusted new claims, up by 16,509 because of layoffs in the construction, trade, service, textile, and furniture industries. Texas reported the biggest decrease, down by 5,607 claims due to fewer layoffs in the trade, finance and manufacturing industries.
---> inflationsgespenst :D


U.S. Nov. import prices rise 0.2% vs. expected flat

By Robert Schroeder
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Dec 14, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.2% in November, as prices for imported petroleum fell but prices for imported natural gas skyrocketed. Imported natural gas prices climbed 30.3% in November, hitting a two-year high, according to the Labor Department. Imported petroleum prices, meanwhile, dropped 1.6%. Excluding petroleum import prices, import prices rose by 0.7%. Import prices excluding all fuels rose by 0.1%.


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*DJ US Nov Producer Prices +2.0%; Consensus +0.7%

12/19/2006
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*DJ US Nov PPI Ex-Food & Energy +1.3%; Consensus +0.3%



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*DJ US Nov PPI Highest Since '74; Core Highest Since '80



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*DJ US Nov PPI Intermediate Goods +0.7%; Core -0.3%



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*DJ US Nov PPI Crude Goods +15.7%; Core +0.5%



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*DJ US Nov PPI Energy Prices +6.1%



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*DJ US Nov Passenger Car Prices +2.2%



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*DJ US Oct PPI Unrevised At -1.6%



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=DJ DATA SNAP:US PPI At 32-Yr High On Gasoline, Truck Prices



By Brian Blackstone
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. wholesale prices soared last month at their fastest pace in more than three decades on the back of sharply higher gasoline and light truck prices, suggesting that inflationary risks linger despite a recent soft consumer price report.

The producer price index for finished goods rose 2% in November - the highest rate since November 1974 - after decreasing 1.6% in October, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

The core PPI excluding food and energy swelled 1.3%, the highest rate since July 1980 and fully reversing October's 0.9% drop.

The numbers were well above Wall Street estimates. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a 0.7% month-on-month increase in the PPI and 0.3% climb in the core rate.

In the 12 months ending in November, overall wholesale prices rose 0.9%, which though up from October remains well below annual rates seen in the spring and early summer. The core PPI was up 1.8% compared to a year ago.

The wholesale price data take some of the shine off Friday's very tame consumer price index report that showed no change in the core CPI for November. That report had fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve would have more flexibility to lower rates next year in response to any weakness in the economy.

The Fed on Dec. 12 opted to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for a fourth-straight meeting but maintained its bias toward higher rates should inflation persist, a decision that seems supported by the PPI report.

Tuesday's report showed producer prices for energy increased 6.1% last month compared to October. Gasoline rose 17.9%, the highest monthly rate since June 2000. Gas prices had fallen sharply the previous two months. Residential natural gas increased 5.9% last month.

Food prices increased 0.1%.

Wholesale prices of passenger cars increased 2.2%, while wholesale light truck prices soared a record 13.7%. Car and light truck prices had tumbled in October due in part to new quality adjustment measures incorporated by government statisticians.

Capital equipment prices rose 1.4% last month.

Deeper in the production pipeline, price pressures remained generally elevated. Prices of raw materials, known as crude goods, rose by 15.7%, while excluding food and energy they rose 0.5%. Intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%, but were down 0.3% excluding food and energy.
ECONOMIC REPORT
Housing starts rise 6.7% in November
Building permits fall to 9-year low with 10th straight decline
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:31 AM ET Dec 19, 2006



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Construction on new homes rebounded in November, rising 6.7% after a whopping 14% drop in October, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Building permits, meanwhile, fell 3% to a fresh nine-year low, signaling that the housing market remains very weak.
Starts rose 6.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.588 million from October's revised 1.488 million pace. Starts are down 25.5% in the past year and are down 12.5% in the first 11 months of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005.
Building permits, considered a leading indicator of the economy and of the housing market, fell 3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.506 million, the 10th straight decline in permits, from October's 1.553 million pace.
Building permits are down 31.3% in the past year and are down 14.1% in the first 11 months of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005.
The pace of starts in November was above the expected 1.54 million, while permits fell short of the 1.55 million expected by economists polled by MarketWatch.
Completions of new homes were flat at a 1.915 million annual pace, indicating that a significant supply of homes is still entering the market.
Starts of single-family homes increased 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.281 million after a 15% drop in October. Permits of single-family homes fell 3.1% to a 1.144 million pace, also the lowest since December 1997.
The National Association of Home Builders reported on Monday that its survey of builder sentiment fell in December after two months of small gains. Builders' outlook for future sales improved, while buyer traffic evaporated. Builders said they saw signs of a turning point in the improved outlook. See full story.
The government's housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. It can take five months for a new trend in housing starts to emerge from the data. The standard error is so high, in fact, that the government is not confident that starts increased at all in November.
Starts in September and October were revised lower by a cumulative 14,000 annualized
In the past five months, housing starts have averaged 1.64 million annualized, down from 1.69 million in the five months ending in October and 2.12 million in January.
Regionally, starts rose 8.6% in the Northeast and rose 18.5% in the South. Starts fell 6.3% in the Midwest to the lowest level in 15 years. Starts fell 8.1% in the West to the lowest level in five years.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

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*DJ US 3Q GDP Revised To +2.0% Rate From +2.2%

12/21/2006
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*DJ US 3Q GDP Consensus +2.2%



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*DJ 3Q Real Final Sales Revised To +1.9% Rate From +2.1%



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*DJ 3Q PCE Price Index +2.4%, Unrevised From Prelim Report



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*DJ 3Q Purchases Price Idx Revised To +2.2% Rate From +2.1%



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*DJ 3Q Chain-Weighted Price Idx Revised To +1.9% From +1.8%



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*DJ 3Q Corporate Profits +4.2% Vs +0.3% In 2Q



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*DJ 3Q Corporate Profits Revised To +4.2% From +4.6%



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=DJ DATA SNAP: US 3Q GDP Even Slower As Housing Slumps


===================================================================
Gross Domestic Product 3Q 3Q 2Q ! Consensus: !
Overall GDP Growth +2.0% +2.2% +2.6% ! +2.2% !
PCE Price Index +2.4% +2.4% +4.0% ! Actual: !
! +2.0% !
===================================================================

By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy was a bit weaker last summer than earlier believed as the sharpest housing sector slump in 15 years took an even bigger toll on the slowest quarterly growth of 2006.

Gross domestic product rose at a 2.0% annual rate July through September, revised down from a previous estimate a month ago of 2.2% for the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The department said the revision to GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy, mainly reflected a downward adjustment to consumer spending.

Another GDP component that was lowered was residential fixed investment, which plunged 18.7% in the third quarter instead of the previously reported 18.0%. Housing is bogging down the economy, which grew at a faster, 2.6% rate in the second quarter and 5.6% pace in the first three months of 2006. The 18.7% drop in residential fixed investment - the sharpest since a 21.7% drop in first-quarter 1991 - translated to a cut of 1.20 percentage points in third-quarter GDP; the estimate a month ago of an 18.0% decline had reduced GDP by 1.16 percentage points. Second-quarter residenital fixed investment dropped by 11.1%.

Gauges measuring third-quarter inflation were either raised slightly or left alone, according to Thursday's data revisions. Corporate profits after taxes were revised lower.

Wall Street had expected no revision to third-quarter GDP; the median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 2.2% increase.

The biggest component of GDP is consumer spending and it was revised lower. Third-quarter spending by consumers rose 2.8%, down from a previously reported 2.9% increase but above the second quarter's 2.6% advance. Consumer spending accounts for the lion's share of economic activity - about two-thirds. It contributed 1.96 percentage points to GDP in the third quarter; the previous estimate was a contribution of 1.99 percentage points.

Services spending climbed 2.8%; previously, Commerce said services spending rose 3.1%.

Consumer purchases of durable goods rose 6.4% in July through September, above the previously reported 6.0% increase. Durables dipped by 0.1% in the second quarter.

Durable goods are expensive items designed to last at least three years, such as cars.

Third-quarter non-durables spending increased by 1.5%.

Businesses increased inventories by $55.4 billion in the third quarter; earlier, Commerce estimated a $58.0 billion increase. Companies had lifted stocks $53.7 billion in the second quarter.

The accumulation of goods added 0.66 percentage point to third-quarter GDP. Previously, Commerce said inventories added 0.16 percentage point from GDP.

Real final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, climbed 1.9%, below the earlier estimated 2.1% increase. Second-quarter sales rose 2.1%.

International trade caused slightly less of a drag on GDP, as exports climbed more than earlier thought, according to the revised data. U.S. exports rose by 6.8%. Imports increased 5.6%. Originally, exports were seen up 6.3% and imports 5.3% higher. So, trade reduced GDP by 0.19 percentage point; previously, Commerce said trade cut third-quarter GDP by 0.21 percentage point.

In the second quarter, exports had gone up by 6.2% and imports climbed 1.4%.

Businesses increased third-quarter spending an unrevised 10.0%. Business spending rose 4.4% in the second quarter. Third-quarter investment in structures surged 15.7%. Equipment and software increased 7.7%.

Federal government spending increased by 1.3%, revised down from a previously estimated 1.5% increase. Second-quarter spending fell 4.5%. State and local government outlays increased 1.9%.

The government's price index for personal consumption increased at an unrevised 2.4%, which was below the second quarter's 4.0% rise. The PCE price gauge excluding food and energy increased at an unchanged 2.2%, below the second quarter's 2.7% rise.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, rose 2.2%, higher than the previously estimated 2.1% climb but well below the second quarter's 4.0% rise.

The chain-weighted GDP price index rose 1.9%, higher than the previously estimated 1.8% climb but below the second quarter's 3.3% rise.

Corporate profits climbed 4.2% to $1.163 trillion in July through September from the second quarter, the report showed. That was a revision down from an originally reported 4.6% increase. Profits in the second quarter increased 0.3%. Year over year, profits surged 31.0% since the third quarter of 2005.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.154.552 von heuschrecker am 24.09.06 13:25:16
ECONOMIC REPORT
Leading indicators rise 0.1% in November
Slow growth likely to continue, but not get slower, researchers say
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:02 AM ET Dec 21, 2006



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Slow economic growth is likely to continue in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in November, the third straight increase.
The increase was exactly as predicted by economists polled by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The index rose a downwardly revised 0.1% in October and 0.4% in September.
Four of the 10 leading indicators increased in November: money supply, vendor performance, core capital goods orders and stock prices. Five indicators contracted: jobless claims, building permits, the interest rate spread, the factory workweek, and consumer expectations. Orders for consumer goods held steady.
Over the past six months, the index is up 0.2%, with half of the 10 indicators growing. The index is designed to foreshadow turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.
"The slower economy of the second half of 2006 might continue into the first half of 2007," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the private research group, in a statement. "But it may not get any slower."
Earlier Thursday, the Commerce Department said gross domestic product increased at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter, down from the 2.6% in the second quarter and revised slightly lower from an earlier estimate of 2.2% for the third quarter. See full story.
Goldstein said the economy "retains considerable strength." Interest rates are low, unemployment is low, and inflation is low. And "the housing slump does not appear to be deepening."
For the economy to slow further from here, "something else must develop," Goldstein said.
The index of coincident indicators increased 0.2% and the index of lagging indicators increased 0.5%.
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

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GDP, leading indicators und Philly - alle unter den erwartungen. nur gut, dass weihnachten vor der tür steht


:D


*DJ Philadelphia Fed Dec Business Index -4.3 Vs Nov 5.1

12/21/2006
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*DJ Philadelphia Fed Dec Price Paid 20.6 Vs Nov 26.7



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*DJ Philadelphia Fed Dec Price Received 9.9 Vs Nov 5.7



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*DJ Philadelphia Fed Dec Employment 7.9 Vs Nov 0.2



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*DJ Philadelphia Fed Dec New Orders -2.4 Vs Nov -3.7
yeah, happy new year :D


DJ ADP-Macroeconomics Advisers See Dec Payrolls -40,000


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--An employment indicator published Wednesday by payrolls giant Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers anticipates a decline of 40,000 private sector jobs in the Labor Department's December payroll report due at 8:30 a.m. EST Friday.

That compares with the expected 115,000 increase in total jobs that economists called for in a Dow Jones Newswires survey earlier this week.

The ADP-Macroeconomic Advisers estimate doesn't include jobs growth in the government sector.

"These findings suggest an abrupt slowing of employment, following three months during which, according to the ADP National Employment Report, gains in private nonfarm employment averaged 121,000 per month," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers.

In November, official data showed payrolls gained a total of 132,000 compared with the ADP report's estimate for private sector jobs growth of 158,000.

The ADP-Macroeconomics Advisers employment survey was first published in April 2006.

ADP, based in Roseland, N.J., claims to process the payment of one in six U.S. workers, while Macroeconomic Advisers, based in St. Louis, is an economic consulting firm. The firms release this indicator each month at 8:15 a.m. ET on the Wednesday prior to the release of the Labor Department's Employment Situation report.
*DJ US Construction Spending -0.2% In Nov; Consensus -0.4%

01/03/2007
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*DJ Oct Construction Spending Revised To -0.3% From -1.0%



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=DJ DATA SNAP: Nov Spending Declines Less Than Expected


===========================================================
Construction Spending Nov Oct ! Consensus: !
Overall Spending -0.2% -0.3%r ! -0.4% !
Residential -1.6% -1.7%r ! Actual: !
! -0.2% !
===========================================================


WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)--U.S. construction spending fell again during November, restrained by the slump in homebuilding.

Total spending decreased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.184 trillion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Spending fell by 0.3% in October, revised from a previously reported 1.0% decline.

Wall Street had been expecting a 0.4% drop in November.

Residential construction spending decreased by 1.6% to $597.80 billion. Residential spending decreased a revised 1.7% in October; originally, October residential outlays were estimated down 1.9%.

Non-residential private construction spending rose 1.2% in November. Outlays for schools and hotels climbed, while spending declined for communication and transportation facilities. October spending rose 1.1%, revised from a previously reported flat reading.

Private-sector construction spending decreased by 0.6% to $905.76 billion in November. October spending dropped by 1.0%, revised from a previously reported 1.5% drop.

Government construction spending increased 1.0% to $278.38 billion. Public spending increased 1.9% in October; originally, October government outlays were estimated rising 0.8%. November federal government construction outlays dropped 0.8%, but state and local spending - much larger than federal spending in dollars - rose by 1.1% to $258.72 billion.
*DJ US ISM Dec Mfg Business Index 51.4 Vs Nov 49.5

01/03/2007
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*DJ US ISM Dec Mfg Business Index Expected 50.0



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*DJ US ISM Dec Prices Index 47.5 Vs Nov 53.5



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*DJ US ISM Dec Employment Index 49.7 VS Nov 49.2



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*DJ US ISM Dec New Orders Index 52.1 Vs Nov 48.7



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*DJ US ISM Dec Production Index 51.8 Vs Nov 48.5



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*DJ US ISM Dec Inventories 48.4 Vs Nov 49.7



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*DJ ISM: December Manufacturing 'Proved Resilient'



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DJ DATA SNAP/ISM Mfg: US Dec Business Index 51.4 Vs Nov 49.5


=======================================================
Dec Nov ! !
ISM Index 51.4 49.5 ! ISM Forecast: 50.0 !
Prices 47.5 53.5 ! Actual: 51.4 !
Employment 49.7 49.2 ! !
=======================================================



NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. factories saw a modest gain in activity in the final month of 2006, recovering from November's unexpected and unwelcome contraction in growth.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, reported Wednesday that its index of manufacturing activity moved to 51.4 in December, from the contractionary 49.5 in November and the 51.2 seen in October. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity. Economists polled in a survey by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the December index to hit 50.0.

"Manufacturing proved resilient in December, as the [manufacturing index] returned to growth," said Norbort Ore, who directs the ISM manufacturing survey. He added, "the prices index is trending downward, relieving some of the inflationary pressure that has troubled manufacturing since the middle of 2003."

The softening trend in the ISM survey has raised concern in some quarters about the broader state of the U.S. economy, even as manufacturing represents a relatively small portion of total economic output, relative to the service sector. The contraction in manufacturing activity seen in November had been the first downturn in over three years for the sector, and as such, December's return to growth stands as welcome news.

In the report, the group noted a further rolling back in inflation pressures, with the prices index standing at 47.5, versus November's 53.5. The index stood at 47.0 in October.

Meanwhile, production ramped up modestly, with that measure standing at 51.8, from the prior month's 48.5, while the new orders index came in at 52.1, an improvement from November's 48.7.

The ISM's manufacturing employment index was 49.7 for last month; it was 49.2 in November. The inventories index stood at 48.4, after 49.7 the prior month.
*DJ Dec FOMC Minutes: Officials Saw More Downside Econ Risks

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*DJ FOMC: Housing Continued To Weigh 'Heavily' On Economy



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*DJ FOMC: Housing Hasn't Spilled Over 'Significantly'



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*DJ FOMC: Business Spending Decelerated But Should Be Solid



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*DJ FOMC: Employment Should Slow 'Over Next Quarter Or So'



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*DJ FOMC: GDP Growth May Be 'Somewhat Uneven' In Coming Qtrs



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*DJ FOMC: Core Inflation Improved 'Modestly' But Still Risk



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*DJ FOMC: All Members Saw Inflation As Primary Risk



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*DJ FOMC: 1 Member Open To Possibility Of Rate Cut Or Hike



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DJ Dec FOMC Minutes: Officials Saw More Downside Econ Risks


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. Federal Reserve officials last month saw greater downside economic risks to the economy, citing a housing sector that weighed "heavily" on activity as well as weaker business investment, according to the minutes of the Dec. 12 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday.

"Several members judged that the subdued tone of some incoming indicators meant that the downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little and become a bit more broadly based than previously thought," the minutes stated, suggesting that officials are growing more balanced in their economic and inflation assessment.

Still, officials agreed last month that inflation remained the dominant concern and that more policy tightening was possible.

However, in a departure from previous statements and a sign of some disagreement within the Fed, one member wanted the Fed to leave open the possibility of either a rate cut or a rate increase, depending on the outlook for growth and inflation, the minutes showed.


The Fed last month held the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth straight meeting, though it maintained a bias toward higher rates should inflation persist.

Yet financial markets expect the Fed's next move to be a rate cut, not an increase, despite the Fed's official tightening bias. That assessment may be further bolstered by the Fed's recognition of the slowing economy.

Inflation pressures have decelerated in recent months, although underlying inflation measured by both the core personal consumption expenditures price index and the core consumer price index remain above the Fed's understood 1% to 2% comfort zone.

Though much of the December policy statement mirrored October's, the Fed last month added the qualifier "substantial" to its assessment that the housing market is "cooling," suggesting that it saw greater downside risks to that sector. Officials also added a reference to recent "mixed" economic indicators, though they repeated their assertion that the economy would grow at a "moderate" pace.

According to the December minutes, members wanted to convey that growth should be moderate while "also recognizing the possibility that measured (gross domestic product) growth could be somewhat uneven in coming quarters."

Officials downgraded their assessment of business investment, noting that it "appeared to have decelerated recently." In the previous minutes, the Fed said investment appeared to be "holding up well." Still, officials said in the December minutes that business spending should expand "at a solid pace."

Officials also noted that while employment had posted "solid gains" in recent quarters, job growth "would probably slow over the next quarter or so" in lagged response to softer activity.

Regarding price pressures, Fed officials said core inflation "had improved modestly." However, "nearly all participants viewed core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation," the FOMC stated, generally repeating what it said in October.

While inflation should "edge lower," officials "stressed there was considerable uncertainty as to the probable pace and extent of the moderation in core inflation and that the risks around this desired downward path remained to the upside."
*DJ US Jobless Claims +10K To 329K In Dec 30 Wk; Survey +1K

01/04/2007
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*DJ US Dec 23 Week Continuing Claims -76K to 2,446,000



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DJ US Jobless Claims +10K To 329K In Dec 30 Wk; Survey +1K

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, suggesting some slackening in labor markets.

New claims for unemployment insurance increased by 10,000 to 329,000 in the week ended Dec. 30, the Labor Department said Thursday. The prior week's reading was revised to 319,000 from a previously reported level of 317,000.

There were no special factors in the latest week, the Labor Department said, though an official pointed out that seasonal volatility related to the holidays is pronounced this time of year.

The claims data were well above Wall Street expectations. The median forecast of nine economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for claims to rise by just 1,000 to 318,000.

The four-week average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose by 1,250 to 317,500.

Labor market conditions have thus far remained quite favorable for workers. Payrolls expanded by 132,000 in November, and the unemployment rate sits at just 4.5%.

However, economists expect the December employment report, due for release Friday, to show more softness. A closely-watched employment indicator released Wednesday by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projects a decline of 40,000 private sector jobs in Friday's report, causing many economists to lower their payroll forecasts, which had initially been for total payroll growth in excess of 100,000.

In the Labor Department report Thursday, continuing claims for workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than a week tumbled by 76,000 to 2,446,000 in the week ended Dec. 23, the latest week for which such data are available.

The jobless rate for workers with unemployment insurance was 1.9% in the week ended Dec. 23, unchanged from the previous week.

The Labor Department said 39 states and territories reported an increase in jobless claims during the Dec. 23 week, while 13 reported a decrease. Indiana reported the biggest increase in claims, 9,544, because of layoffs in automobile and manufacturing industries. Tennessee reported the biggest decrease, 3,157, due to fewer layoffs in construction, service and manufacturing industries.
*DJ US Factory Orders +0.9% In Nov; Consensus +1.3%

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*DJ Nov Factory Orders, Excluding Transportation, -0.5%



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01-04-07 1000ET

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*DJ Nov Factory Orders, Excluding Defense, +0.1%



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01-04-07 1000ET

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*DJ Nov Durable Goods Revised To +1.6% From +1.9%



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01-04-07 1000ET

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*DJ Oct Factory Orders Revised To -4.5% From -4.7%



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01-04-07 1000ET

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=DJ DATA SNAP: US Nov Factory Orders Up Less Than Expected


=========================================================
US Factory Orders ! !
Nov Oct ! Consensus: !
Total Orders: +0.9% -4.5%r ! +1.3% !
Ex-Transportation: -0.5% -0.9%r ! Actual: !
Durable Goods: +1.6%r -8.1%r ! +0.9% !
=========================================================


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. factory orders bounced back during November from a big drop, but the rebound was smaller than expected and driven partly by soaring military aircraft demand.

Factory-goods orders increased 0.9%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. October orders fell 4.5%; bookings were originally estimated 4.7% lower.

The increase in orders during November for expensive, durable goods, designed to last at least three years, was revised lower, and a yardstick for business spending fell again.

The 0.9% advance during November in overall factory goods orders came short of expectations on Wall Street, which had been looking for a 1.3% increase.

The manufacturing sector slowed at the end of 2006. Surging summer energy prices chilled consumer demand, leading to a pileup in inventories. A particularly sore spot for the sector has been the automotive industry, afflicted by falling sales and a consequent drop in output.

On a positive note for factories, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday its index of manufacturing activity for December pulled out of negative territory, turning in a reading of 51.4 following a contractionary 49.5 in November. Readings above 50 indicate manufacturing sector expansion for that month; below 50 suggests a decline in overall activity. The private research group report contains a gauge measuring inventories and it fell to 48.4. The drop, the fourth sub-50 reading in a row for the inventory gauge, indicated factories are reducing their stockpiles; some economists, however, say overall inventories in the economy might still be too heavy.

Thursday's government data showed durable-goods orders rose 1.6% in November, revised down from a 1.9% advance previously estimated in a report issued two weeks ago.

Orders for goods designed to endure less than three years were flat in November, after dipping 0.1% in October.

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft - a key barometer of investment by businesses - fell 1.1%, after a 4.0% drop in October.

Consumer-goods orders advanced by 0.6% in November a second month in a row. Consumer durable goods orders were 0.4% higher; consumer non-durables increased 0.6%.

Demand for transportation-related goods rose 8.2%. Non-defense aircraft and parts increased 0.8%. Orders for motor vehicle bodies and parts retreated 2.4%. But defense aircraft and parts orders soared 43.6%. Ships and boats also surged, up 40.8%.

Minus transportation orders, overall factory orders would have been 0.5% lower.

Demand increased 7.7% for computers and electronic products and 0.5% for fabricated metals. Orders dropped 2.2% for electrical equipment and appliances, 8.9% for machinery, and 2.8% for primary metals.

Capital goods orders were 2.5% higher in November. Demand for all non-defense capital goods - business equipment meant to last 10 years or more - decreased 1.1%.

Defense capital goods rose 34.8%. Excluding defense, all other durable goods increased 0.1% in November.

The report showed factory shipments inched up 0.1% in November. Inventories increased 0.2%. Unfilled orders, a sign of future demand, advanced by 1.7%.
*DJ US ISM Dec Non-Mfg Business Index 57.1 Vs Nov 58.9

01/04/2007
Dow Jones News Services
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01-04-07 1000ET

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*DJ US ISM Dec Non-Mfg Business Index Expected 57.5



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01-04-07 1000ET

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*DJ US ISM Dec Non-Mfg Employment Index 53.3 Vs Nov 51.6



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