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TIMMINCO - metallurgisches SI für Solar - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

WKN: 871433 | Symbol: TIMNF
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Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

 

Wer sich z.B. für Solarvalue interessiert, sollte auch hierauf einen Blick werfen:

Kanadisches Metallurgieunternehmen, dass einen Produktionsprozess für Solar-SI auf metallurgischer Basis entwickelt hat und zumindest im Pilotstadium auch schon betreibt.

Echte Umsätze also. Kann man ja nicht von allen Unternehmen dieses Genres sagen ;).

Poste im Anhang mal ein paar Meldungen.

Wie immer keine Anlageempfehlung; Ich habe mir vorhin in Frankfurt meine 10 Guckstücke gekauft.

Gruß
Meinolf
Erster Vertrag:

Timminco Limited Announces First Commercial Contract for High Purity Silicon
Thursday March 15, 2007 4:30 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - March 15, 2007) - Timminco Limited (TSX:TIM - News), a leading producer of specialty and light metals, today announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc.("BSI"), has reached agreement to sell high purity silicon to a solar cell manufacturer. The agreement anticipates shipments of high purity silicon in excess of 4,000 metric tons ("mt") over an initial term of 5 years and it represents BSI's first commercial contract for the sale of high purity silicon. BSI currently has the capacity to produce 300 mt of high purity silicon per year and is preparing to ramp up production towards the end of 2007.

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"A dedicated team of metallurgists has been working with certain customers over the past year in the course of developing a metallurgical process to purify chemical grade silicon produced by BSI to meet the demanding specifications of solar cell industry participants. BSI has a patent-pending process which enables it to produce high purity (a level of 99.999% purity) or solar grade silicon. In addition, other grades of silicon, including low boron silicon, can be produced using this process" said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President - Becancour Silicon Inc.

"This is a tremendous breakthrough for our research and development team in Becancour and an important step in our strategy. High purity silicon or solar grade silicon is presently used in the manufacture of solar cells and currently attracts a significantly higher selling price per tonne than chemical grade silicon. Negotiations have commenced with other solar cell manufacturers globally and we hope to sign long term commitments over the next few months", continued Mr. Boisvert.
Zweiter Vertrag:

Timminco Limited Announces Second Commercial Contract for High Purity Silicon
Wednesday April 4, 2007 9:57 am ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 4, 2007) - Timminco Limited (TSX:TIM - News), a leading producer of specialty and light metals, today announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc.("BSI"), has reached agreement to sell high purity silicon to a solar cell manufacturer. The agreement provides for a minimum of 1,500 metric tons ("mt") and up to 5,000 mts over an initial term of 5 years, subject to BSI's increased production capacity and customer agreement. It represents BSI's second commercial contract for the sale of high purity silicon. BSI currently has the capacity to produce 300 mt of high purity silicon per year.

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"This second customer contract illustrates the interest that solar cell manufacturers have in the high purity silicon being produced by BSI. BSI has a patent-pending process which enables it to produce high purity (a level of 99.999% purity) or solar grade silicon. In addition, other grades of silicon, including low boron silicon, can be produced using this process" said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President - Becancour Silicon Inc.
Timminco Limited Provides Update on Its Solar Grade Silicon Metal Business
Thursday May 31, 8:00 am ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - May 31, 2007) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco" or the "Company") (TSX:TIM - News) is pleased to provide the following update about the Company's solar grade silicon metal business.

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Update on Solar Grade Silicon Metal Facility Expansion

On April 30, 2007, Timminco completed a common share offering of 11.5 million common shares with gross proceeds of $29.9 million. The majority of the proceeds will be used to construct a 3,600 metric ton annual capacity facility for the production of solar grade silicon metal.

The new facility will be constructed at Timminco's existing silicon metal production site in Becancour, Quebec. Design and engineering work for the new facility are in process. Construction is scheduled to begin following permitting approval from the Quebec Ministry of Environment, which is expected to be received within the next six weeks.

The new plant will consist of three separate production lines, each expected to yield at least 1,200 metric tons of annual capacity. Timminco has ordered the solar grade silicon metal production equipment required for the expansion, with deliveries beginning in August 2007. This equipment is similar to the Company's 300 metric ton annual capacity pilot plant, which the Company is currently using to ship solar grade silicon metal to its customers under contract and solar grade silicon metal samples for testing to potential customers.

The construction of the production lines will be modular, with the first of the three lines anticipated to be operational in December 2007. The additional lines are anticipated to be operational in January 2008 and February 2008, respectively. It is anticipated full production capacity will be reached in the beginning of the second quarter of 2008.

Update on Solar Grade Silicon Metal Shipments

As of the date of this release, Timminco has shipped more than 20 metric tons of solar grade silicon metal to its two customers under long term contracts and to potential customers. The majority of such solar grade silicon metal was shipped to customers under long term contract. A majority of the solar grade silicon metal was shipped in the second quarter of 2007.
Timminco Announces Ground-Breaking for Becancour Solar Silicon Facility
Monday July 30, 8:30 am ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - July 30, 2007) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM - News) announced that it will be breaking ground today for the construction of its solar silicon metal facility located in Becancour Quebec. The ground-breaking ceremony will be attended by Louis Plamondon, MP, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour; Maurice Richard, Mayor of Becancour; Guy Leblanc, General Manager of the Industrial Park and Port of Becancour; and, a representative of Mrs. Julie Boulet, Minister of the Quebec Provincial Government responsible for the Mauricie Region signifying the importance of the new facility to the economy of the Mauricie Region of Quebec. The new plant will consist of three separate production lines, each expected to yield at least 1,200 metric tons of annual capacity bringing the total capacity of the facility to a minimum of 3,600 metric tons per year.

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The Company has now received regulatory approval to proceed with the construction of the facility. In line with previous estimates, the first of the three lines is anticipated to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the second and third lines are anticipated to be coming on stream in the first quarter of 2008. It is anticipated full production capacity will be reached in the beginning of the second quarter of 2008.
Dritter Vertrag:

Timminco Limited Announces Third Commercial Contract for High Purity Silicon
Thursday September 6, 9:02 am ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Sept. 6, 2007) - Timminco Limited (TSX:TIM - News) today announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), has entered into an agreement to sell high purity silicon to a solar cell manufacturer. The agreement provides for shipments of 13,100 metric tons over a term of 5 years subject to production capacity expansion. The agreement represents BSI's third long term commercial contract for the sale of high purity silicon. BSI currently is constructing a facility to produce 3,600 metric tons of solar silicon per year at its location in Becancour, Quebec. That facility is expected to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2007, reaching full production capacity by the end of the first quarter of 2008. In addition to this expansion, additional capacity will be required over time to satisfy current contracted volumes and future demand.

"BSI's announced plans have generated a significant level of interest from prospective customers, leading to this third significant supply agreement. This level of interest reflects the potential for growth in the solar industry and the importance of silicon supply to that growth." said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President and CEO of BSI.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.323.091 von unawatuna am 07.11.07 12:11:24Ist teuer, gebe ich zu... :cool:
-Gehört zu AMG----Die im November 2006 gegründete AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. (WKN A0M WED / ISIN NL0000888691 / www.amg-nv.com ) mit Sitz im niederländischen Amsterdam stellt metallurgische Produkte für die Sparten Luft- und Raumfahrt, Elektronik, Energie, Chemie, Bau, Optik und Transport her. Das Unternehmen wird allerdings von der Stadt Wayne im US-amerikanischen Staat Pennsylvania aus geführt. Die Gruppe wurde aus Beteiligungen des Safeguard International Fund L.P. verschmolzen, wobei diese Beteiligungsgesellschaft noch weitere Engagements im Portfolio hat. AMG versteht sich als führender, global tätiger Spezialist, der Metallurgie-Produkte und Vakuum-Anwendung an eine breite Palette von Anwender-Industrien liefert. AMG bezeichnet sich als Marktführer in diversen Nischen auf rasch wachsenden Märkten, einschließlich Solarenergie und Luftfahrt. Die Gruppe teilt sich auf die zwei Sparten „Engineering Systeme“ und „Advanced Materials“ auf. Die „Engineering Systeme“ werden dabei von der Hanauer ALD Vacuum Technologies gebildet, die aus Leybold-Durferrit hervorging. „Advanced Materials“ umfasst die 1911 in Nürnberg gegründete GfE Gesellschaft für Elektrometallurgie. Sie ist mit der Companhia Industrial Fluminense in Brasilien aktiv. Des Weiteren zählt die Sudamin Holding mit der Vorgängerin Société Industrielle et Chimique de l'Aisne zu AMG. Außerdem wird die kanadische Timminco Ltd. (WKN 871 433) mehrheitlich beherrscht, die in Toronto gelistet ist. Timminco hat im September 2004 die Becancour Silicon Inc. komplett übernommen, die ihren Firmensitz im kanadischen Quebec hat.
Am 11. Juli ist die Advanced Metallurgical Group an die Börse gegangen. Die Bookbuilding-Spanne für die rund 15 Millionen Aktien, die 56,1 Prozent der Firma darstellen, betrug 20 bis 25 Euro. Etwa zwei Drittel der Anteilscheine stammten aus einer Kapitalerhöhung und ein Drittel aus dem Bestand von Altaktionären, wie etwa dem Safeguard International Fond. Der Ausgabepreis betrug 24 Euro. AMG sind so brutto rund 361 Millionen Euro zugeflossen.

Am 23. Juli hat die Advanced Metallurgical Group gemeldet, über Aktienkaufoptionen 913.500 Anteilscheine der Timminco Ltd. zu kaufen und so die Beteiligung auf 50,6 Prozent auszubauen. Verkäufer ist der Safeguard International Fond. AMG behält weitere rund 17,6 Millionen Optionen für Timminco-Aktien und wird Safeguard International 5,68 Kanadische Dollar je Timminco-Aktie bezahlen.

Am 15. August hat die Advanced Metallurgical Group gemeldet, einen hochverzinslichen Kredit über 198,9 Millionen US-Dollar komplett getilgt zu haben.

Am 4. September hat die Advanced Metallurgical Group gemeldet, einen Kreditrahmenvertrag über 275 Millionen US-Dollar mit der Credit Suisse als so genanntem Bookrunner einer internationalen Bankengruppe abgeschlossen zu haben. Mit etwa 100 Millionen Dollar daraus sollen alle bestehenden Kredite bei anderen Banken abgelöst werden.

Am 6. September hat die Advanced Metallurgical Group gemeldet, dass die Becancour Silicon Inc., kurz BSI, einen Auftrag erhalten hat, wonach sie hochreines Silikon an einen Solarzellen-Produzenten liefern soll. Insgesamt umfasst der Auftrag ein Volumen von 13.100 metrischen Tonnen über einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren. BSI errichtet derzeit am Stammsitz im kanadischen Becancour eine Fabrik, die eine Produktionskapazität von 3.600 Metrischen Tonnen im Jahr haben soll. Produktionsstart soll das vierte Quartal 2007 sein.

Am 10. September hat die Advanced Metallurgical Group gemeldet, dass die Tochtergesellschaft Timminco Ltd. 7,65 Millionen Aktien für je 8,50 US-Dollar ausgeben und so zirka 65 Millionen Dollar brutto einnehmen wird. Die AMG wird bei dieser Privatplatzierung 3.870.900 Aktien übernehmen und rund 33 Millionen Dollar dafür zahlen. So hält die AMG auch weiterhin ihren Anteil von 50,6 Prozent an Timminco. AMG erhält zudem Optionen für den Kauf von bis zu 580.635 weiteren Aktien.

Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch ist Chairman und Vorstandsvorsitzender der Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. Dr. Schimmelbusch ist 1993 nach Verlusten bei Termingeschäften als Vorstandsvorsitzender der Metallgesellschaft AG abgelöst worden. Heute ist die Metallgesellschaft im Wesentlichen in der GEA Group (WKN 660 200) aufgegangen. Dr. Schimmelbusch ist Gründer und Vorstandsvorsitzender der Allied Resource Corporation und Managing Director beim Safeguard International Fond. Dr. Schimmelbusch hat sich zwischenzeitlich die Rechte am Namen „Metallgesellschaft” gesichert und eine neue Firma dieses Namens in Elsteraue im Burgenlandkreis nahe der Stadt Zeitz eröffnet. Dr. Schimmelbusch hat die „neue MG“ von einer „Metallgesellschaft Limited“ im britischen London aus gegründet. Die AMG lässt sich also insgesamt als eine Art „Mini-MG“ beschreiben, nach dem was sich Dr. Schimmelbusch aus dem Beteiligungsportfolio des Safeguard Fonds ausgesucht hat.

William Levy ist der Finanzvorstand der Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. Eric Jackson ist der President von Advanced Materials und Dr. Reinhard Walter President der Engineering Services. Die Gesellschaft hat 26.799.504 Aktien ausgegeben. Zum 30. Juni hat AMG flüssige Mittel von 77,38 Millionen Euro ausgewiesen. Die Verbindlichkeiten betrugen 289,45 Millionen Euro.

Quelle: http://www.depotliga.de/xist4c/web/Advanced-Metallurgical-Group---Portrait_id_64__dId_7195529__app_news0120__tId_20_.htm
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.322.977 von meinolf67 am 07.11.07 12:04:16Interessant, werde mich mal damit auseinandersetzen!
man hat im September nochmal eine Kapitalerhöhung gemacht, so dass jetzt ca. 102 mio. Aktien ausstehen.

Dafür gibt es auch wieder ein meßbares EK mit ca. 125 Mio. CAD.

Prospekt kann man sich über SEDAR runterladen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.323.436 von unawatuna am 07.11.07 12:36:40DANKE für den Artikel!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.339.834 von Hoerschwelle am 08.11.07 13:17:11:)

Die Sulfuris hatten aber schon ein paar Personalwechsel....
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.339.879 von meinolf67 am 08.11.07 13:19:30... das macht nichts, hast Du Dir mal angeschaut wer die Finger drinnen hat?

Vattenfall und die Zander Gruppe halten Löwenanteile
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.360.411 von Hoerschwelle am 09.11.07 13:23:40war bekannt. Und? :cool:

wenn ich Vattenfall höre, dann denke ich an Versager....
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.361.365 von meinolf67 am 09.11.07 14:26:38:laugh:

Jopp, bei Vattenfall in jedem Fall:D
Timminco Announces Third Quarter 2007 Results
Monday, November 12, 2007; Posted: 05:55 PM
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TORONTO, ONTARIO, Nov 12, 2007 (Marketwire via COMTEX) -- TIMNF | charts | news | PowerRating -- Timminco Limited ("Timminco" or the "Company")(TSX:TIM) announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007. The Company is divided into two segments: the Magnesium Group and the Silicon Group.

OVERVIEW

The Silicon Group reported positive net income before amortization, interest and taxes ("EBITDA") for both the third quarter and the nine months ending September 30, 2007. The Magnesium Group reported a loss at the EBITDA level for both the third quarter and year to date. Continued challenges in operations in both businesses and in Fundo Wheels resulted in a net loss for both the quarter and year to date.

"The positive developments in the solar silicon business, with strong demand and rising prices, are most welcome. We continue to be very optimistic about the opportunities in this business. For the third quarter, operating results in both the silicon metal and magnesium businesses were affected by operating issues and a strong Canadian dollar. In the Magnesium business, a weakening US housing sector is not helpful," noted Heinz Schimmelbusch, Chairman and CEO of Timminco. "However, both the progress in the construction of the solar silicon facility and our common share offering are very positive events in the quarter," continued Dr. Schimmelbusch.

"The magnesium business is showing signs of improvement due to a continued focus on margin improvement, cost reduction and management reorganization. The strategic challenge for this business is securing an economic supply of magnesium to leverage our growth opportunities," noted Dr. Schimmelbusch.

RESULTS OF FOR THE THIRD QUARTER

For the quarter ended September 30, 2007, the net loss was $4.6 million or $0.05 per share compared with a loss of $3.1 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2006. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, the net loss was $9.2 million or $0.11 per share compared with a loss of $7.5 million or $0.10 per share in the same period in 2006.

Sales for the third quarter of 2007 were $43.0 million, a decrease of $1.1 million compared to sales of $44.1 million for the third quarter of 2006. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, sales were $125.9 million compared with $130.2 million in the first nine months of 2006.

Silicon Group

In the Silicon Group, sales for the third quarter of 2007 were $28.6 million compared with $28.1 million in the third quarter of 2006, an increase of $0.5 million. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, sales in the Silicon Group were $76.1 million compared with $72.0 million for the first nine months of 2006. In the third quarter and on a year to date basis, there has been an increase in the sales of silicon metal compared to the same periods in 2006. Sales of ferrosilicon and by-products decreased when compared to the third quarter of 2006. Sales of solar grade silicon from the Company's prototype facility were 30 metric tons in the third quarter of 2007 and 56 metric tons year to date.

For the quarter ended September 30, 2007, the Silicon Group had a gross margin of $0.6 million or 2.1% of sales compared with $1.7 million or 6.1% of sales in the third quarter of 2006. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, gross margin was $2.6 million or 3.5% of sales compared with $1.7 million or 2.4% of sales in the first nine months of 2006. For the quarter, gross margin was impacted by the strength of the Canadian dollar when compared to the US dollar. Compared to the third quarter of 2006, the strength of the Canadian dollar had an unfavourable impact of approximately $1.4 million on sales. The increase in gross margin for the nine months ended September 30, 2007, is related to higher selling prices for materials, predominantly silicon metal, negotiated for the 2007 fiscal year.

Magnesium Group

Sales for the Magnesium Group for the third quarter of 2007 were $14.4 million compared to $16.0 million in the third quarter of 2006. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, sales were $49.8 million compared to $58.2 million in the first nine months of 2006. The strength of the Canadian dollar when compared to the US dollar was responsible for approximately 40% of the sales decrease for the quarter ended September 30, 2007 when compared to the same quarter in the prior year, as the majority of the Group's sales are made in US dollars. Comparing the third quarter and the nine months ended September 30, 2007 with the respective periods in the prior year, sales of anodes and concrete tools were lower in 2007. Actual tonnes of magnesium sold increased 3.2% in the third quarter of 2007 compared to the same quarter in 2006 and were up 1.1% on a year to date basis when compared to the prior year.

Gross margin in the Magnesium Group was $2.2 million or 14.9% of sales in the third quarter of 2007 compared to $2.1 million or 12.9% of sales in the third quarter of 2006. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, gross margin was $5.5 million or 11.0% of sales compared to $8.1 million or 13.9% of sales during the first nine months of 2006. In the third quarter of 2007, the increase in gross margin percentage was due to lower manufacturing variances and overheads and a slightly more favourable product mix. For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, the decrease in gross margin percentage when compared to the same period in 2006 is due to higher manufacturing variances, which predominantly occurred in the first quarter, offset by lower overhead costs.

Amortization of capital assets in the third quarter of 2007 was $0.1 million, down from $0.9 million in the third quarter of 2006. The decrease in amortization was caused by the lower level of property, plant and equipment in the Magnesium Group, an outcome of the asset impairment charge of $31.2 million taken in December 2006.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

(000's except per share data) -------------------------------------------- Three Months ended Nine Months ended (unaudited) (unaudited) -------------------------------------------- September September September September 30, 2007 30, 2006 30, 2007 30, 2006 -------------------------------------------- Sales 43,033 44,065 125,930 130,202

Gross profit 3,095 4,119 9,094 10,799

Gross profit percentage 7.2% 9.3% 7.2% 8.3%

Net income (loss) (4,579) (3,105) (9,200) (7,500)

Earnings (loss) per common share, basic and diluted (0.05) (0.04) (0.11) (0.10) Working capital (excluding cash items) 23,681 36,547 23,681 36,547

Total assets 186,865 149,760 186,865 149,760

Bank debt 327 33,268 327 33,268

Total long term liabilities excluding bank debt 22,673 23,282 22,673 23,282

Cash flow from operations (4,218) (6,219) (5,047) (6,008)

Weighted average number of common shares outstanding, basic and diluted 93,932 75,133 85,396 75,133

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This news release contains forward-looking statements concerning Timminco's business and operations. Timminco cautions that, by their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and that Timminco's actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Such statements include comments regarding the status of construction of the new 3,600 metric ton solar grade silicon manufacturing facility, and pricing and demand for the products of the Silicon Group.

There are financial and operational risks inherent in all of Timminco's businesses, which include, but are not limited to: commodity prices, currency exchange, interest rates, capital, credit, regulatory, political, operational and environmental risks. In Timminco's solar silicon business, there are additional risks associated with the expansion of this business and production capacity, increasing product purity, the long-term commercial contracts, and protection of intellectual property. Timminco takes specific measures to manage anticipated risks, and any forward-looking statements in this news release were based on the assumption of no significant changes or trends with respect to such risk factors. However, there can be no assurance that future developments affecting Timminco or its businesses will be those anticipated by Timminco. Reference should be made to the most recent Management's Discussion and Analysis for a description of the major risk factors. Timminco disclaims any duty to update forward-looking statements other than through relevant future Management's Discussions and Analyses.

ABOUT TIMMINCO

Timminco is a leader in the production of silicon metal for the electronics, chemical and aluminum industries. Timminco has also commenced production of solar grade silicon metal. Other businesses include the production and marketing of magnesium, calcium and strontium alloys and magnesium extruded and fabricated products. Timminco's products are used in a broad range of specialized industrial applications and industries such as electronics, solar energy, chemical, engineered extruded products, pharmaceutical, automotive and metallurgical. Timminco's common shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol TIM.

Timminco Limited

Consolidated Balance Sheets As at September 30 December 31 2007 2006 (unaudited) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- (in thousands of Canadian dollars)

ASSETS Current Assets Cash $ 60,926 $ 804 Accounts receivable 23,885 19,834 Inventories 29,516 33,830 Prepaid expenses and deposits 1,898 2,160 Future income taxes 225 225 ------------------------------- 116,450 56,853 -------------------------------

Long term receivables 112 135 Convertible note receivable (Note 3) 2,051 - Property, plant and equipment 30,620 18,280 Investment in Fundo Wheels AS (Note 3) 8,313 9,173 Employee future benefits 2,437 2,034 Deferred financing costs - 526 Future income taxes 3,549 3,431 Intangible assets (Note 10) 5,025 4,262 Goodwill 18,308 18,308 ------------------------------- $ 186,865 $ 113,002 ------------------------------- -------------------------------

LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Bank indebtedness (Note 5 and 13) $ 327 $ 26,243 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 24,642 25,062 Term bank debt (Note 5 and 13) - 4,355 Due to affiliated companies (Note 4 and 6) 5,118 5,497 Future income taxes 183 - Current portion of long term provisions (Note 11) 1,900 2,863 ------------------------------- 32,170 64,020

Loan - other 171 202 Employee future benefits 17,993 17,508 Future income taxes 1,234 1,324 Long term provisions 3,275 3,720 ------------------------------- 54,843 86,774 -------------------------------

SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY Capital stock (Note 6) 199,089 84,191 Equity component of convertible notes (Note 4 and 6) 2,521 1,693 Contributed surplus 3,177 3,192 Deficit (72,131) (62,490) Accumulated other comprehensive loss (Note 2 and 9) (634) (358) ------------------------------- 132,022 26,228 ------------------------------- $ 186,865 $ 113,002 ------------------------------- -------------------------------

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim consolidated financial statements.

Timminco Limited Consolidated Statements of Operations, Comprehensive Loss and Deficit (unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2007 2006 2007 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- (in thousands of Canadian dollars, except for earnings per share information)

Sales $ 43,033 $ 44,065 $ 125,930 $ 130,202

Expenses Cost of goods sold 39,938 39,946 116,836 119,403 Selling and administrative 4,666 3,161 11,990 10,087 Amortization of property, plant and equipment 828 1,502 2,160 4,678 Amortization of intangible assets 138 138 413 413 Amortization of deferred financing costs - 104 - 311 Interest 546 938 2,111 2,384 Foreign exchange (gain) loss 559 (20) (884) (2,485) ---------------------------------------------------

Loss before the undernoted (3,642) (1,704) (6,696) (4,589)

Gain on sale of property, plant and equipment 10 5 41 120 Reorganization costs - (51) (34) (79) Equity loss of Fundo Wheels AS (1,295) (1,263) (2,422) (2,741) ---------------------------------------------------

Loss before income taxes (4,927) (3,013) (9,111) (7,289) Income taxes Current (24) 6 163 220 Future (324) 86 (74) (9) --------------------------------------------------- (348) 92 89 211 ---------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------- Net loss $ (4,579) $ (3,105) $ (9,200) $ (7,500) --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------

Other Comprehensive Loss, net of income taxes

Loss on foreign exchange forwards realized in the period - - 1,086 -

Unrealized gain (loss) on translating financial 145 (280) (276) 8 statement of self-sustaining foreign operation - Fundo Wheels AS --------------------------------------------------- Comprehensive Loss $ (4,434) $ (3,385) $ (8,390) $ (7,492) --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------

Loss per common share - basic and diluted $ (0.05) $ (0.04) $ (0.11) $ (0.10) --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------

Weighted average number of common shares outstanding - basic and diluted (Note 6 (b)) 93,932,352 75,132,614 85,396,245 75,132,614 --------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------

Consolidated Statements of Deficit (unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 2007 2006 2007 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- (in thousands of Canadian dollars)

Deficit at beginning of period $ (67,552) $ (20,652) $ (62,490) $ (16,257) Net loss (4,579) (3,105) (9,200) (7,500) Adjustment for changes in accounting policy (Note 2) - - (441) - ------------------------------------------------------

Deficit at end of period $ (72,131) $ (23,757) $ (72,131) $ (23,757) ------------------------------------------------------

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim consolidated financial statements.

Timminco Limited Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (unaudited)

Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 2007 2006 2007 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- (in thousands of Canadian dollars)

Cash flows from operating activities Net loss $ (4,579) $ (3,105) $ (9,200) $ (7,500) Adjustments for items not requiring cash Amortization of property, plant and equipment 828 1,502 2,160 4,678 Amortization of intangible assets 138 138 413 413 Amortization of deferred financing costs - 104 - 311 Stock based compensation 126 117 360 352 Reorganization costs - 51 34 79 Benefits plan expense 819 803 2,214 2,297 Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment (10) (5) (41) (120) Future income taxes (272) 86 60 61 Equity loss of Fundo Wheels AS 1,295 1,263 2,422 2,741 Defined benefit pension plan contributions (1,010) (495) (2,132) (1,862) Expenditures charged against provision for reorganization (297) (361) (1,358) (1,530) Expenditures charged against other long term provisions (47) (3) (84) (56)

Change in non-cash working capital items (Increase) decrease in accounts receivable (4,662) (3,597) (4,051) (2,693) (Increase) decrease in inventories 1,756 483 4,314 (122) (Increase) decrease in prepaid expenses and deposits (207) 307 262 237 Increase (decrease) in accounts payable and accrued liabilities 1,904 (3,507) (420) (3,294) ---------------------------------------------- (4,218) (6,219) (5,047) (6,008) ----------------------------------------------

Cash flows from investing activities Capital expenditures (8,021) (1,214) (15,211) (3,376) Development costs capitalized (Note 10) - - (1,176) - Investment in Fundo Wheels AS (Note 3 and 4 (15) - (1,838) - Investment in convertible note (Note 3) (2,051) - (2,051) - Decrease in long term receivables 8 20 23 65 Proceeds on disposal of property, plant and equipment 10 5 774 120 Other 20 (6) (22) (257) ---------------------------------------------- (10,049) (1,195) (19,501) (3,448) ----------------------------------------------

Cash flows from financing activities (Decrease) increase in bank indebtedness (6,055) 4,337 (25,916) 2,407 Decrease in term bank debt (3,375) (337) (4,386) (990) (Decrease) increase in loans from affiliated companies (78) 3,422 3,054 5,714 Expenditures charged against deferred financing costs - (56) - (115) Issuance of capital stock 83,943 - 111,918 - ---------------------------------------------- 74,435 7,366 84,670 7,016 ----------------------------------------------

Increase (decrease) in cash 60,168 (48) 60,122 (2,440)

Cash at beginning of period 758 88 804 2,480

---------------------------------------------- Cash at end of period $ 60,926 $ 40 $ 60,926 $ 40 ---------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------

Supplemental information Cash paid during the period: Interest $ 387 $ 808 $ 1,656 $ 2,231 ---------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------- Income taxes $ 100 $ 78 $ 234 $ 729 ---------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------

The accompanying notes are an integral part of these interim consolidated financial statements.

Timminco Limited

Notes to the Interim Consolidated Financial Statements

For the quarter ended September 30, 2007 and 2006

Unaudited

The notes presented in these interim consolidated financial statements refer to only significant events and transactions since December 31, 2006 and are not fully inclusive of all matters normally disclosed in the Company's annual audited financial statements including the disclosures required by Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP"). Accordingly, these interim consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2006.

1. NATURE OF OPERATIONS

Timminco Limited (the "Company" or "Timminco") is a global supplier of silicon metal for the electronics, chemical and aluminum industries and solar grade silicon for the solar industry. Other businesses include the production and marketing of magnesium, calcium and strontium alloys and magnesium extruded and fabricated products. Timminco's products are used in a broad range of specialized industrial applications and industries. The Company manages its business along two principal business segments, the production and sale of silicon based metals, the Silicon Group and the production and sale of specialty non-ferrous metals, the Magnesium Group. AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. ("AMG") is the controlling shareholder of the Company.

2. CHANGE IN ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ACCOUNTING CHANGES

These interim consolidated financial statements have been prepared using the same accounting policies and methods as were used for the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2006, except for the following new accounting pronouncements which have been adopted effective January 1, 2007:

On January 1, 2007, the Company adopted the recommendations of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants ("CICA") Handbook: Section 1530, Comprehensive Income, Section 3251, Equity, Section 3855, Financial Instruments - Recognition and Measurement, Section 3861, Financial Instruments - Disclosure and Presentation and Section 3865, Hedges. These new Handbook Sections, which apply to fiscal years beginning on or after October 1, 2006, provide comprehensive requirements for the recognition and measurement of financial instruments, as well as standards on when and how hedge accounting may be applied. Section 1530 also establishes standards for reporting and displaying comprehensive income. Comprehensive income is defined as the change in equity from transactions and other events from non-owner sources. Other comprehensive income refers to items recognized in comprehensive income, but that are excluded from net income calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.

Under Section 3855, all financial instruments are classified into one of the following five categories: held-for trading, held-to-maturity investments, loans and receivables, available-for-sale financial assets or other financial liabilities. All financial instruments, including derivatives, are included in the consolidated balance sheet and are measured at fair value with the exception of loans and receivables, investments held-to-maturity and other financial liabilities, which are measured at amortized cost. Subsequent measurement and recognition of changes in fair value of financial instruments depend on their initial classification. Held-for-trading investments are measured at fair value and all gains and losses are included in net income in the period in which they arise. Available-for-sale financial assets are measured at fair value with revaluation gains and losses included in other comprehensive income until the asset is derecognized or impaired. As a result of the adoption of these new standards, the Company has classified its cash as held-for-trading. Receivables are classified as loans and receivables. Foreign forward exchange contracts, included in prepaid expenses and deposits, are classified as held-for-trading. The Company's investment in Fundo Wheels AS is accounted for under the equity method. Unrealized gains and losses from the translation into Canadian dollars of this equity investment are now presented as a separate component of other comprehensive income (loss). In accordance with Section 3251, accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) is presented as a separate component of shareholders' equity in the Consolidated Balance Sheets. Previously, these gains and losses were deferred and included in the foreign currency translation adjustment as part of shareholders' equity. Accounts payable and accruals and short-term debt, including interest payable, are classified as other financial liabilities. The principal changes in the accounting for financial instruments and hedging relationships due to the adoption of these accounting standards are described below.

Comprehensive Income

The Company's comprehensive loss is composed of net loss and other comprehensive loss ("OCL"). OCL includes the deferred loss on the foreign exchange forward contracts (see discussion under "Hedges" below) and their reclassification in the statements of operations during the period, as well as the foreign currency loss on the Company's investment in Fundo Wheels AS.

Equity

Accumulated other comprehensive income ("AOCI") is included on the consolidated balance sheet as a separate component of shareholders' equity.

Derivatives

Derivatives are carried at fair value and are reported as assets where they have a positive fair value and as liabilities where they have a negative fair value. Non-financial derivatives are carried at fair value unless exempted from derivative treatment as a normal purchase and sale. The Company has reviewed all significant contractual arrangements and determined there are no material non-financial derivatives that need to be carried at fair value.

Embedded derivatives

Derivatives embedded in other financial instruments or contracts are separated from their host contracts and accounted for as derivatives when their economic characteristics and risks are not closely related to those of the host contract; the terms of the embedded derivative are the same as those of a free standing derivative; and the combined instrument or contract is not measured at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in interest and other expenses, net. These embedded derivatives are measured at fair value with changes therein recognized in interest and other expenses, net. The Company selected January 1, 2003 as the transition date for embedded derivatives, as such only contracts or financial instruments entered into or modified after the transition date were examined for embedded derivatives. As at September 30, 2007, the Company does not have any outstanding contracts or financial instruments with embedded derivatives that require bifurcation. The Company has chosen, as a matter of accounting policy, not to account for embedded foreign currency derivatives in host contracts that are not financial instruments separately from the host contracts when the currency that is commonly used in contracts to purchase or sell non-financial items in the economic environment is that currency in which the transaction takes place.

Transaction costs

Transaction costs directly attributable to the issuance of long-term debt are now expensed. Previously, these amounts were deferred and amortized using the straight line method over the term of the debt. During the first quarter, $0.4 million of transaction costs were recognized as an adjustment of the balance of retained earnings at the beginning of the period due to the adoption of this accounting policy.

Determination of fair value

The fair value of a financial instrument is the amount of consideration that would be agreed upon in an arm's length transaction between knowledgeable, willing parties who are under no compulsion to act. The fair value of a financial instrument on initial recognition is the transaction price, which is the fair value of the consideration given or received. Subsequent to initial recognition, the fair values of financial instruments that are quoted in active markets are based on bid prices for financial assets held and offer prices for financial liabilities. When independent prices are not available, fair values are determined by using valuation techniques which refer to observable market data. These include comparisons with similar instruments where market observable prices exist, discounted cash flow analysis, option pricing models and other valuation techniques commonly used by market participants.

Hedges

Section 3865 of the CICA Handbook specifies the criteria that must be satisfied in order for hedge accounting to be applied and the accounting for each of the permitted hedging strategies: fair value hedges and cash flow hedges. Hedge accounting is discontinued prospectively when the hedging relationship ceases to be effective, when the hedging item or hedged item ceases to exist and when the entity terminates its designation of the hedging relationship. The Company does not have any forward contracts accounted for as hedges as at September 30, 2007. As at December 31, 2006, the Company accounted for its forward currency contacts using hedge accounting under Accounting Guideline 13 ("AcG 13"). As at January 1, 2007, the Company discontinued accounting for forward contracts under AcG 13, The deferred loss on the hedging item as at January 1, 2007 was transferred to accumulated other comprehensive loss and reclassified to the statement of operations when the hedged item affected the statement of operations in the period. Future changes in fair value (subsequent to January 1, 2007) of the Company's forward contracts will be recorded in foreign exchange gain/loss on the statement of operations and the forward contracts will be recorded at fair value as a prepaid item. As at September 30, 2007, the fair value loss on currency forward contracts was nil.

Transitional adjustment

Adoption of these standards was on a prospective basis without retroactive restatement of prior periods, except for the restatement of equity balances to reflect the reclassification of "Foreign currency translation adjustments" to "Accumulated other comprehensive income".

ACCOUNTING CHANGES

Effective January 1, 2007, the Company has adopted the new recommendations of the CICA Handbook Section 1506, Accounting Changes. Under these new recommendations, voluntary changes in accounting policy are permitted only when they result in the financial statements providing reliable and or relevant information, requires changes in accounting policy to be applied retrospectively unless doing so is impracticable, requires prior period errors to be corrected retrospectively and requires enhanced disclosures about the effects of changes in accounting policies, estimates and errors on the financial statements. These recommendations also require the disclosure of new primary sources of generally accepted accounting principles that have been issued but are not yet effective. The impact that the adoption of this section will have on the Company's financial statements will depend on the nature of future accounting changes and the required additional disclosure on Recent Accounting Pronouncements as noted below.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

Recent accounting pronouncements issued and not yet effective:

Capital Disclosures

CICA Handbook Section 1535, Capital Disclosures, requires disclosure of an entity's objectives, policies and processes for managing capital, quantitative data about what the entity regards as capital and whether the entity has complied with any capital requirements and, if it has not complied, the consequences of such non-compliance. This standard is effective for the Company for interim and annual financial statements beginning on January 1, 2008. The Company has not yet determined the impact of the adoption of this change on the disclosure in its financial statements.

Financial Instruments Disclosures

CICA Handbook Section 3862, Financial Instruments - Disclosures, increases the disclosures currently required that will enable users to evaluate the significance of financial instruments for an entity's financial position and performance, including disclosures about fair value. In addition, disclosure is required of qualitative and quantitative information about exposure to risks arising from financial instruments, including specified minimum disclosures about liquidity risk and market risk. The quantitative disclosures must also include a sensitivity analysis for each type of market risk to which an entity is exposed, showing how net income and other comprehensive income would have been affected by reasonably possible changes in the relevant risk variable. This standard is effective for the Company for interim and annual financial statements beginning on January 1, 2008. The Company has not yet determined the impact of the adoption of this change on the disclosure in its financial statements.

Financial Instruments Presentation

CICA Handbook Section 3863, Financial Instruments - Presentation, replaces the existing requirements on presentation of financial instruments which have been carried forward unchanged to this new section. This standard is effective for the Company for interim and annual financial statements beginning on January 1, 2008. The Company does not expect the adoption of this standard to have a material impact on presentation in its financial statements.

General Standards on Financial Statement Presentation

CICA Handbook Section 1400, General Standards on Financial Statement Presentation, has been amended to include requirements to assess and disclose an entity's ability to continue as a going concern. The changes are effective for the Company for interim and annual financial statements beginning January 1, 2008. The Company does not expect the adoption of these changes to have an impact on its financial statements.

International Financial Reporting Standards

The CICA plans to converge Canadian GAAP with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) over a transition period expected to end in 2011. The impact of the transition to IFRS on the Company's financial statements is not yet determinable.

Inventories

The new Section 3031 "Inventories", was issued in June 2007 and replaces existing Section 3030 of the same title. It provides guidance with respect to the determination of cost and requires inventories to be measured at the lower of cost and net realizable value. Reversal of previous write-downs to net realizable value when there is a subsequent increase in the value of inventories is now required. The cost of the inventories should be based on a first-in, first-out or a weighted average cost formula. Techniques used for the measurement of cost of inventories, such as the retail method or standard cost method, may be used for convenience if the results approximate cost. The new standard also requires additional disclosures including the accounting policies used in measuring inventories, the carrying amount of the inventories, amounts recognized as an expense during the period, write- downs and the amount of any reversal of any write-downs recognized as a reduction in expenses. This standard is effective for fiscal years beginning on or after January 1, 2008. The difference in the measurement of opening inventory may be applied to the opening inventory for the period, with an adjustment to opening retained earnings with no prior periods restated, or retrospectively with a restatement to prior periods in accordance with Section 1506 "Accounting Changes". The standard is applicable to the Company for the first quarter of 2008. The Company is currently assessing the implications of this standard to identify differences between the current accounting and the new guidance in the standard.

3. INVESTMENT IN FUNDO WHEELS AS AND CONVERTIBLE NOTE

Fundo Wheels AS ("Fundo"), a Norwegian company with operations located in Hoyanger, Norway, is an original equipment manufacturer of cast aluminium wheels for high end European car manufacturers. On March 22, 2004, the Company acquired 100% of the shares of Nor-Wheels AS ("Nor-Wheels"), a Norwegian Company that holds a 24.4% interest in Fundo for $6,276,000.

Nor-Wheels became a subsidiary of Timminco and assumed the Company's rights and obligations under the Call Option and Fees Agreement and other existing agreements with the controlling shareholder of Fundo, which is the Community of Hoyanger (the "Community"). As at September 30, 2007, the Community owns approximately 53% of Fundo. The Company accounts for the Fundo investment under the equity method. The acquisition of the equity interest did not create any purchase discrepancy.

On May 25, 2005, the Company acquired an additional 726 shares of Fundo from an unrelated third party. The purchase price was satisfied by the issuance of 5,750,000 common shares of the Company from treasury, valued at $4,393,000. The value was determined using the weighted average share price for the two days before and after the transaction announcement. The acquisition of the equity interest did not create any purchase discrepancy. As a result of the transaction, the Company's ownership interest increased from 24.4% to 47% of Fundo.

In December 2006, the Company acquired an additional 264 shares of Fundo from treasury for $1,058,000. The Community also invested in Fundo such that the Company's ownership interest remained at 47%. The acquisition of the interest did not create any purchase discrepancy.

In March 2007, the Company acquired an additional 453 shares of Fundo from treasury for $1,823,000. The Community also invested in Fundo such that the Company's ownership interest remained at 47%. The acquisition of the interest did not create any purchase discrepancy.

On September 10, 2007, the Company loaned Fundo $2.0 million to assist Fundo with its working capital requirements. The loan is due December 31, 2010, bears interest at three month NIBOR plus 4% and is to be repaid in instalments commencing September 30, 2009. The loan is secured by a charge against Fundo's land, buildings and equipment and is subordinate to Fundo's bank debt. The loan is convertible into shares of Fundo at the Company's option at Fundo's book value on the date the loan was granted or on the date of conversion at the Company's option. The conversion of the loan is restricted such that the Company cannot exceed ownership of 49.9% of Fundo through the conversion of this loan.

Also on September 10, 2007, Fundo's shareholders agreed to terminate the call option that Nor-Wheels had in respect of the Community's shares in Fundo and the put option that the Community had in respect of its shares in Fundo.

4. RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS

During the quarter ended March 31, 2007, Safeguard International Fund, L.P. ("Safeguard") transferred all of its common shares of the Company to AMG. On July 11, 2007, AMG completed its initial public offering, with a secondary offering by Safeguard of a portion of its shares of AMG. The shares of AMG are listed on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange.

On March 1, 2007, ALD International L.L.C. ("ALD International"), an affiliate of Safeguard, loaned $4.5 million to the Company to expedite product development and to fund its further investment in Fundo. The loan, which is in the form of a convertible promissory note and is secured against certain assets of the Company, is repayable on demand, and bears interest at the U.S. prime rate plus 1%. The loan and related security are subordinate to the indebtedness and the security provided by the Company's senior lender, Bank of America, N.A. Under the terms of the loan, ALD International has the option to convert the whole or any part of the outstanding principal amount at any time into common shares of the Company at a conversion rate of $0.42 per common share.

On April 26, 2007, ALD International exercised its right to convert the entire principal amount outstanding under the US$2.0 million convertible promissory note issued March 7, 2006 into 5,601,000 common shares of the Company at a conversion rate of Cdn$0.40 per common share. The Canadian dollar equivalent of the United States dollars comprised in the principal amount of the note was $2.24 million. ALD International subsequently transferred all such shares to AMG.

On July 23, 2007, Safeguard exercised its right to convert US$350,000 of the principal amount outstanding under the US$3.0 million convertible promissory note issued August 31, 2006 into 913,500 common shares of the Company at a conversion rate of Cdn$0.40 per common share. The Canadian dollar equivalent of the United States dollars converted was $0.37 million. Pursuant to an agreement among AMG, Safeguard and ALD International, all of the issued shares were issued directly to AMG (See Note 6).

5. BANK DEBT

(a) Bank debt at September 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006 was comprised as follows:

(000's) September 30, 2007 December 31, 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bank indebtedness $ 327 $ 26,243 Current portion of long term bank debt - 4,355 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 327 $ 30,598 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

At September 30, 2007, total bank debt denominated in US dollars amounted to US$0.1 million (December 31, 2006 - US$27.3 million).

(b) As at March 31, 2006, the Company was in compliance with its covenants under its credit facility and banking agreement dated April 15, 2005 (the "Credit Agreement") with Bank of America, N.A. (the "Bank"). As at June 30, 2006, the covenants in the Credit Agreement were amended by requiring the Company to maintain minimum levels of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ("EBITDA"), as defined by the Credit Agreement and limiting the amount of capital expenditures. Both the EBITDA and capital expenditure requirements were to be measured at June 30, September 30 and December 31, 2006. As at December 31, 2006, such covenants were further amended such that the Company was in compliance. The Bank also amended the covenants for fiscal 2007; for the first three quarters of 2007, the Company was required to meet certain EBITDA levels and submit to certain limits on capital spending. The revised covenants for 2007 were based on the Company's 2007 budget. As at March 31, June 30 and September 30, 2007, such covenants were further amended such that the Company was in compliance with its covenants under the Credit Agreement as at those dates.

Furthermore, the Credit Agreement was amended in 2006 to expand the Company's borrowing base by a maximum of US$1.3 million through the inclusion of receivables from Australia, Japan and Mexico into the borrowing base formula. These receivables were previously considered ineligible by the Bank. This increase in borrowing base is a temporary relief expiring on November 30, 2007.

6. CAPITAL STOCK

(a) Authorized: unlimited number of Class A and Class B preference shares, issuable in series and having such rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions as may be approved by the Board of Directors of the Company.

Issued: none

(b) Authorized: unlimited number of common shares. Holders of common shares are entitled to one vote for each share.

Issued capital is: Common Shares No. of Shares Amount (000's) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Balance as at January 1 75,132,614 $ 84,191 Common share offering April 30 (Note 6(b)) 11,500,000 27,811 Common share offering September 27 (Note 6(b)) 10,150,474 83,562 Conversion of notes (Note 4 and 6(b)) 6,514,500 2,606 Stock options exercised 622,250 919 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Balance as at September 30, 2007 103,919,838 $ 199,089 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------

During March 2006, the warrants related to the Company's private placement, which occurred during March 2004, expired. The balance of $1.4 million was added to contributed surplus.

On March 7, 2006, the Company borrowed US$2 million from an affiliate of Safeguard, the Company's controlling shareholder. On April 26, 2007, Safeguard gave written notice to the Company that it was exercising its right to convert the entire principal amount outstanding under this note into 5,601,000 common shares of the Company at a conversion rate of Cdn$0.40 per common share. The Canadian dollar equivalent of the United States dollars comprised in the principal amount of the note was $2.24 million.

On September 5, 2006, (the "August 2006 Note") the Company borrowed US$3 million from Safeguard (See Note 4). The loan may be settled, at the lender's option, in cash or shares at $0.40 per share, or a combination of cash and shares. The lender's option to settle the debt in shares has been fair valued separately from the debt using the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Accordingly, the transaction was recorded as $2.4 million as Due to an affiliate in current liabilities and $0.9 million as Equity component of convertible note in shareholders' equity. The following assumptions were used to calculate the fair value of the equity component: expected dividend yield of 0%, expected stock volatility of 63%, risk free rate of 4.0% and expected life of 3.6 years. The expected life of the debt coincides with the maturity of the Bank of America agreement including the optional renewal period, to which the debt is subordinate.

On March 1, 2007, (the "March 2007 Note") the Company borrowed $4.5 million from ALD International (See Note 4). Under the terms of the loan, Safeguard, through its affiliate, has the option to convert the whole or any part of the outstanding principal amount at any time into common shares of the Company at a conversion rate of $0.42 per common share. The lender's option to settle the debt in shares has been fair valued separately from the debt using the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Accordingly, the transaction was recorded as $2.8 million as Due to an affiliate in current liabilities and $1.7 million as Equity component of convertible note in shareholders' equity. The following assumptions were used to calculate the fair value of the equity component: expected dividend yield of 0%, expected stock volatility of 65%, risk free rate of 3.96% and expected life of 3.2 years. The expected life of the debt coincides with the maturity of the Bank of America agreement including the optional renewal period, to which the debt is subordinate.

On April 30, 2007, the Company completed a public offering of 10,000,000 common shares at a price of $2.60 per common share for gross proceeds of $26.0 million. The offering was sold on a bought deal basis. The Underwriters also exercised their over-allotment option in full and purchased an additional 1,500,000 common shares at a price of $2.60 per common share for gross proceeds of $3.9 million. The total gross proceeds of the Offering was $29.9 million.

On June 21, 2007, AMG entered into an option agreement with Safeguard and ALD International relating to common shares of the Company (the "AMG Call Option Agreement"). Pursuant to this agreement, each time Safeguard or ALD International exercises in whole or in part its conversion right respectively under the August 2006 Note or the March 2007 Note, AMG has the right, and must use its reasonable endeavours, to exercise an option requiring Safeguard or ALD International, as applicable, to instruct the Company to issue the common shares issuable on the conversion directly to AMG. On any exercise of this option AMG must pay to Safeguard or ALD International, as applicable, a sum of cash equal to the closing market price for the common shares of the Company over which it is exercising the option.

On July 23, 2007, Safeguard exercised its option to acquire 913,500 Timminco common shares through the conversion of US$350,000 principal amount of its US$3.0 million Promissory Note dated August 31, 2006. Such shares were issued directly to AMG pursuant to the AMG Call Option Agreement (See Note 4).

On September 27, 2007, the Company completed a public offering of 4,360,291 common shares at a price of $8.50 per common share for gross proceeds of $37.1 million. The public offering was sold on a bought deal basis. The Underwriters also exercised their over-allotment option in full and purchased an additional 654,043 common shares at a price of $8.50 per common share for gross proceeds of $5.6 million. The total gross proceeds of the offering was $42.6 million. Concurrently with the public offering, the Company completed a private placement to AMG of 5,136,140 common shares at a price of $8.50 per common share for gross proceeds of $43.7 million. Net proceeds from the public offering and private placement will be used primarily for significant production capacity expansion for solar grade silicon at the Company's manufacturing facility located in B?cancour, Qu?bec, and to further the Company's objective to increase the purity of its solar grade silicon production. The balance of the net proceeds was used for repayment of bank debt and general corporate purposes.

(c) The Company's shares rank in the priority of Class A and Class B preference shares and then common shares with respect to the payment of dividends and the return of capital.

(d) Stock options have been granted to certain key employees and directors to purchase common shares of the Company subject to various vesting requirements. During 2004, the Company established a Share Option Plan (the "Plan") which supersedes the Stock Option Plan for Directors and Key Employees. Under the Plan, options are granted at the discretion of the Board at an exercise price equal to the closing price of the common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange on the last trading day preceding the day of grant. The options vest equally over a four year period, with the initial 25% vesting after one year. The options have a life of seven years. On May 31, 2007, the shareholders of Timminco agreed to an increase in the number of common shares available for issuance of stock options by 1,669,625 common shares. The maximum number of shares available for issuance under the Plan pursuant to stock options is, as at September 30, 2007, 7,825,925 common shares.

On January 31, 2007, 1,200,000 stock options were granted under the Plan. The fair value of the grant, determined using the Black-Scholes option-pricing model, was $0.19 per option. The following assumptions were used to calculate the fair value: expected dividend yield of 0%, expected stock volatility of 76.6%, risk free interest rate of 4.1% and expected option life of 7 years. The share option expense is being amortized, according to the vesting schedule, over a four year period.

On September 11, 2007, 50,000 stock options were granted under the Plan. The fair value of the grant, determined using the Black-Scholes option-pricing model, was $10.27 per option. The following assumptions were used to calculate the fair value: expected dividend yield of 0%, expected stock volatility of 328.9%, risk free interest rate of 4.3% and expected option life of 7 years. The share option expense is being amortized, according to the vesting schedule, over a four year period.

A summary of the status of the Company's stock option plan as of September 30, 2007 and 2006, and changes during the periods ending on those dates is presented below:

2007 2006 ------------------------------------------- Weighted Weighted Shares Average Shares Average Exercise Exercise (000's) Price (000's) Price ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Outstanding at January 1 3,844 $0.71 3,650 $0.78 Granted 1,250 $0.79 200 $0.29 Exercised (623) $0.87 - - Forfeited (137) $0.66 (200) $0.59 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Outstanding at September 30 4,334 $0.71 3,650 $0.77 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

At September 30, 2007, 1,157,750 options were exercisable at a weighted average price of $0.85, with a weighted average remaining life of 3.9 years.

The exercise of outstanding stock options has not been included in the determination of earnings per share as to do so would have been anti-dilutive.

7. FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS

The Company enters into foreign currency contracts to hedge foreign currency risk relating to certain cash flow exposures. The Company's forward exchange contracts reduce the Company's risk from exchange movements because gains and losses on such contracts offset losses and gains on transactions being hedged. The counterparties to the contracts are a multinational commercial bank and therefore credit risk of counterparty non- performance is remote. As at September 30, 2007, the Company had no outstanding exchange contracts. As at December 31, 2006, the Company had outstanding exchange contracts to sell approximately US$26.4 million and EUR3.4 million over a period of 6 months at a weighted average exchange rate of $1.1213 and $1.4920, respectively. The Company recorded an unrealized loss of $1.1 million on these contracts.

The carrying value of current monetary assets and liabilities approximates their fair value due to their relatively short periods to maturity. The fair value of long term debt approximates its carrying amount as the terms and conditions are similar to current market conditions.

8. COMMITMENTS

The Company has committed to purchase $7.2 million of capital goods over the next three months related to its construction of a solar grade silicon production facility in Becancour, Quebec.

9. ACCUMULATED OTHER COMPREHENSIVE LOSS

The accumulated other comprehensive loss balances are as follows:

For the three months For the nine months ended ended ----------------------------------------------------------------------- (000's) September September September September 30, 30, 30, 30, 2007 2006 2007 2006 -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Balance at beginning of period (779) (664) (358) (952)

Adjustment for changes in accounting policies Deferred unrealized losses on foreign - - (1,086) - exchange forward contracts Other Comprehensive (loss) income $ 145 $ (280) $ 810 $ 8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Balance at end of period $ (634) $ (944) $ (634) $ (944) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------

10. INTANGIBLE ASSETS

The Company deferred development costs related to the production of solar grade silicon of $1.2 million during the quarter ended June 30, 2007. The deferred development costs will be amortized over a period of three years on a straight line basis once production commences.

11. REORGANIZATION RESERVE

During the three months and nine months ended September 30, 2007, cash payments of $0.3 million and $1.4 million were charged against the Reorganization reserve, respectively (2006 - $0.4 million and $1.5 million).

12. SEGMENTED INFORMATION

The Company manages its business along two principal business segments: the production and sale of specialty non-ferrous metals, the Magnesium Group ("Magnesium"), and silicon based metals, the Silicon Group ("Silicon"). Segmented information on sales and identifiable assets by geographic region is as follows:

(a) Sales:

Three months ended September 30 (000's) Magnesium Silicon Total 2007 Magnesium Silicon Total 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canada $ 789 $ 5,193 $ 5,982 $ 1,380 $ 6,974 $ 8,354 United States 9,099 13,718 22,817 10,471 11,886 22,357 Mexico 870 - 870 1,394 - 1,394 Europe 1,126 8,855 9,981 789 8,978 9,767 Australia 1,054 - 1,054 1,030 - 1,030 Pacific Rim 1,198 768 1,966 705 69 774 Other 276 87 363 182 207 389 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- $ 14,412 $ 28,621 $ 43,033 $ 15,951 $ 28,114 $ 44,065 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine months ended September 30 (000's) Magnesium Silicon Total 2007 Magnesium Silicon Total 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canada $ 4,104 $ 12,832 $ 16,936 $ 7,102 $ 12,286 $ 19,388 United States 33,973 36,463 70,436 38,112 31,470 69,582 Mexico 3,054 17 3,071 3,770 - 3,770 Europe 2,724 25,033 27,757 3,913 27,247 31,160 Australia 3,018 - 3,018 2,896 - 2,896 Pacific Rim 1,770 1,582 3,352 1,713 675 2,388 Other 1,146 214 1,360 713 305 1,018 ------------------------------------
Timminco Announces Change of Auditor

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 16, 2007) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco" or the "Company") (TSX:TIM) announced that the Board of Directors of the Company, based on the recommendation of its Audit Committee and subject to compliance with all applicable statutory requirements, has appointed Ernst & Young LLP ("E&Y") as the auditor of the Company. At the request of the Company, KPMG LLP ("KPMG") resigned as the auditor of the Company effective today. E&Y will perform the audit of the Company's annual financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2007.

E&Y is also the auditor for AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. ("AMG"; Euronext: AMG), which is the controlling shareholder of the Company. Accordingly, the change in auditors for the Company is expected to reduce the time and resources that would otherwise be spent by the Company's management in respect of the audit and review services performed by E&Y as auditor for AMG.

There have been no reservations contained in KPMG's reports on any of the Company's financial statements relating to the financial years ended December 31, 2005 and 2006 or any subsequent period, and there are no reportable events (as defined in National Instrument 51-102 (Section 4.11)) between the Company and KPMG. The Company will be filing the required reporting package in accordance with National Instrument 51-102.
Interessanter Kursverlauf gestern ...

In Ami-Land gehts grad richtig rund mit den solar-aktien
und ich glaub Tim kann davon profitieren

das alte ATH zu erreichen dürfte kein problem werden

viel glück allen investierten(auch mir:))

wünschte mir mehr leben für diesen thread
die aktie steigt und steigt und steigt...
und keinen interessierts....
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.691.765 von Wandenfels2 am 06.12.07 23:41:18Woher weisst Du das es niemanden interessiert? Verhaltener Beifall ist meißt besser als rumschreien wie toll es ist. Der Kurs wird eh drüben gemacht.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.692.625 von Hoerschwelle am 07.12.07 08:34:07hast ja recht, aber
rumschreien meinte ich auch nicht
nur bischen konversation und wer infos hat oder sonstige meinungen einfach hier reistellen...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.698.554 von Wandenfels2 am 07.12.07 16:53:25Jopp, kein Thema;)
Timminco begins silicon production in Quebec


2007-12-19 13:44 ET - News Release

Mr. Rene Boisvert reports

TIMMINCO ANNOUNCES COMMENCEMENT OF PRODUCTION OF SOLAR GRADE SILICON IN ITS NEW FACILITY

Timminco Ltd.'s wholly owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc. (BSI), has commenced production of solar-grade silicon on the first production line in its new facility in Becancour, Que. That facility will comprise three production lines, each with an annual capacity of 1,200 metric tonnes, for a total of 3,600 metric tonnes. The production lines are being brought into production in series, with the second and third lines anticipated to be coming on stream in the first quarter of 2008.
Handel gestoppt, warten auf weitere Nachrichten!

http://www.cnxmarketlink.com/en/releases/archive/December200…

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=804958&sour…


D.h. konkret, zu viel Andrang bei zu wenig Aktien, ob das SV7 auch passiert:D
Timminco Announces Solar Grade Silicon Supply Agreement
Wednesday December 19, 3:35 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Dec. 19, 2007) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco")(TSX:TIM - News) today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), has entered into an agreement to sell solar grade silicon to a solar cell manufacturer. The agreement provides for shipments of approximately 4,400 metric tons over a term of five years.

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This agreement represents BSI's fourth long-term commercial contract for the sale of high purity silicon. The total annual production volume under these four contracts is expected to be approximately 6,000 metric tons beginning in 2009. This volume will require production capacity expansion beyond the 3,600 metric ton production facility that BSI currently is constructing in Becancour, Quebec. That facility has commenced production on the first of three production lines.

"This contract represents an important step in increasing our customer base. Our ability to attract solar cell manufacturers as customers reflects the quality of the solar grade silicon material that we have been able to produce in our initial purification facility. This fourth contract strengthens the business case for significant additional expansion of our production capacity to meet anticipated volume requirements starting in 2009. Our plans for this additional capacity expansion will be announced separately." said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President and CEO of BSI.
Jan 01, 2008 04:30 AM
Gary Norris
THE CANADIAN PRESS

It was the best of times, for those who bought stock in Timminco Ltd. a year ago and watched it gain more than 7,000 per cent.

It was the worst of times for shareholders in Coventree Inc., Menu Foods Income Fund and even former blue chips like Quebecor World or Loblaw Cos.

The benchmark S&P/TSX composite index gained about 7 per cent for the year but, as always, the average concealed a tumultuous cavalcade of thrills of elation and pangs of agony.

Shares in Timminco, a Toronto-based maker of specialized metal, ended 2006 at 30 cents on the Toronto Stock Exchange. By the end of this year, jolted by sales of high-purity silicon for solar-power applications, it was at $21.95, a gain of 7,216 per cent. The company, majority owned by AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV, lost $4.6 million in its latest quarter as sales slipped 2 per cent to $43 million.
noch eine kleine Perle, die unter die räder gekommen ist:

Endingen (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" raten, bei der Aktie von Timminco (ISIN CA8874041012/ WKN 871433) einen Fuß in die Tür zu stellen. Die Gesellschaft zähle bereits jetzt zu den größten Silizium-Herstellern Nordamerikas und sei gerade dabei, die Produktionskapazitäten mit der Installierung neuer Anlagen weiter auszubauen. Rechne man alle Aufträge zusammen, dürfte ab 2009 eine jährliche Auslastung von rund 6.000 Tonnen Silizium notwendig sein. Das kanadische Researchhaus Paradigm erwarte für dieses Jahr einen Umsatzanstieg um 74% auf 308 Mio. Kanadische Dollar (CAD). In den kommenden zwei Jahren sollten die Erlöse sogar auf 800 Mio. CAD steigen. Auch der Nettogewinn dürfte merklich zulegen. Werde für dieses Jahr ein EPS von 0,49 CAD prognostiziert, liege die EPS-Schätzung für 2009 bei 1,36 CAD und für 2010 bei 2,92 CAD. Auf Basis dieser Prognosen würde das KGV in den nächsten beiden Jahren auf unter 5 fallen. Dadurch hätte der Titel ein dreistelliges Kurspotenzial. Die Analysten von Paradigm würden zum Kauf der Timminco-Aktie raten und ein Kursziel von 32 CAD aussprechen. Dem können sich die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" nur anschließen und raten, umgehend einen Fuß bei der Timminco-Aktie in die Tür zu stellen. (Ausgabe 01 vom 21.01.2008) (22.01.2008/ac/a/a)

gasadi
:cool: noch eine kleine Perle, die unter die Räder gekommen ist:



Endingen (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" raten, bei der Aktie von Timminco (ISIN CA8874041012/ WKN 871433) einen Fuß in die Tür zu stellen. Die Gesellschaft zähle bereits jetzt zu den größten Silizium-Herstellern Nordamerikas und sei gerade dabei, die Produktionskapazitäten mit der Installierung neuer Anlagen weiter auszubauen. Rechne man alle Aufträge zusammen, dürfte ab 2009 eine jährliche Auslastung von rund 6.000 Tonnen Silizium notwendig sein. Das kanadische Researchhaus Paradigm erwarte für dieses Jahr einen Umsatzanstieg um 74% auf 308 Mio. Kanadische Dollar (CAD). In den kommenden zwei Jahren sollten die Erlöse sogar auf 800 Mio. CAD steigen. Auch der Nettogewinn dürfte merklich zulegen. Werde für dieses Jahr ein EPS von 0,49 CAD prognostiziert, liege die EPS-Schätzung für 2009 bei 1,36 CAD und für 2010 bei 2,92 CAD. Auf Basis dieser Prognosen würde das KGV in den nächsten beiden Jahren auf unter 5 fallen. Dadurch hätte der Titel ein dreistelliges Kurspotenzial. Die Analysten von Paradigm würden zum Kauf der Timminco-Aktie raten und ein Kursziel von 32 CAD aussprechen. Dem können sich die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" nur anschließen und raten, umgehend einen Fuß bei der Timminco-Aktie in die Tür zu stellen. (Ausgabe 01 vom 21.01.2008) (22.01.2008/ac/a/a)

gasadi
bin letztes jahr noch zu elf euro rein
bin grad nicht so flüssig, sonst würd ich hier
nochmal nachlegen. so günstig wird´s wohl nie wieder
Timminco Executives Presenting at Landsbanki/Kepler Alternative Energies Conference February 7, 2008
Wednesday February 6, 5:00 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb. 6, 2008) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM - News) announced that Rene Boisvert, President and CEO of Becancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), Timminco's wholly-owned subsidiary, will be making a presentation on February 7, 2008 at the Landsbanki/Kepler Alternative Energies Conference in Paris, France. Mr. Boisvert will be providing an overview of Timminco's silicon and solar grade silicon business to an audience of European institutional investors.

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Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, Chairman and CEO of Timminco and CEO of AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. ("AMG") (Euronext:AMG), will also be addressing the conference, speaking on broader issues of the Group's strategy.

Mr. Boisvert will inform the audience that on February 2, 2008 BSI began production of solar grade silicon metal on the second production line at its new facility in Becancour Quebec and will comment on the purity level of material produced and shipped to customers to date.

Mr. Boisvert's presentation will be posted on Timminco's website www.timminco.com later today.
Die Präsentation kann jetzt abgerufen werden...

Sie produzieren tatsächlich...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.297.088 von meinolf67 am 07.02.08 15:47:59:kiss: danke für den Tip - habe deshalb gestern noch gerade vor der Präsentation nachkaufen können. Wenigstens ein kleines Licht in diesem Schlachtfest...
gasadi
Gibt's hier was neues, oder warum steigt der Kurs in 15 Minuten um 10%??
... schon gefunden:

Timminco Announces Expansion of Production Capacity for Solar Grade Silicon
Friday February 22, 2:04 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb. 22, 2008) - Timminco Limited (TSX:TIM - News) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved capacity expansion plans for the production of solar grade silicon at its wholly owned subsidiary, Becancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), at its location in Becancour, Quebec. The expansion is expected to raise the total annual production capacity of its solar grade silicon facilities to 14,400 metric tons from 3,600 metric tons. The expansion is expected to have a capital cost of approximately $65 million and will be completed by mid 2009, on a schedule that will enable BSI to meet all current customer commitments.

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The expansion will include a new production facility equal in capacity to the manufacturing plant currently being commissioned. In addition, new production lines will be installed in BSI's existing silicon metal facility in Becancour to process first pass material. The balance of the project will comprise the construction of new buildings for packaging and shipping, maintenance and employee services. Funding of the project will be from current liquidity, customer deposits under long term supply agreements and expected cash flow from operations and will be expended throughout 2008 and the first half of 2009.

Existing long term customer supply contracts commit BSI for delivery of up to 6,000 metric tons per year beginning in 2009, and BSI has a pipeline of prospective customers who have expressed interest in entering into long term purchase commitments with BSI for solar grade silicon.

"The demand from customers and prospects for our solar grade silicon has confirmed the business case for expansion of our production facilities," said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President and CEO of BSI. "With the commencement of production in our new facility we can now direct our project team to replicate that facility to strengthen Timminco's position as a leader in production of solar grade silicon."

ABOUT TIMMINCO

Timminco Limited (TSX:TIM - News) is a leader in the production and marketing of lightweight metals, specializing in solar grade silicon for the rapidly growing solar photovoltaic energy industry. Using its proprietary technology, Timminco processes metallurgical grade silicon into low cost solar grade silicon for use in the manufacture of solar cells. Timminco has expanded its solar grade silicon capacity to 3,600 mt per year, and plans to further increase capacity to meet anticipated future demand. Timminco also produces alloy magnesium, silicon metal and specialty ferrosilicon, calcium and strontium alloys for use in a broad range of industrial applications serving the aluminum, chemical, pharmaceutical, electronics and automotive industries. For more information, visit www.timminco.com.
Scheint ja hier nicht so auf Interesse zu stoßen. Ich versuch das mal zu erklären :)

14400 Tonnen Solarsilizium heißt anderthalb Gigawattpeak pro Jahr (1,5 GWp/a) und nach meiner Schätzung ein Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis von etwa fünf (KGV 5) nach erfolgtem Hochlaufen der Produktion.
Nicht zu vergessen, die Phantasie auf schnelles weiteres Klonen der Produktionslinien.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.452.495 von Albanach am 22.02.08 21:13:16Dank Dir für die erklärung
kannst du einschätzen wieviel potenzial noch im kurs steckt?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.452.672 von Wandenfels2 am 22.02.08 21:34:04Ich halte ein KGV von 20 angesichts der Wachtstumsperspektiven für vertretbar; falls sich die Börsenstimmung wieder etwas hebt durchaus auch 30 bis 40. Schließlich kann die Firma scheinbar jedes Jahr so eine Fabrik hinstellen.

... werde unter 100 CAD kein Stück verkaufen und glaube, dass wir dieses Jahr da noch hinkommen könnten.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.452.161 von Albanach am 22.02.08 20:32:26@albanch

:kiss:oh, danke! das sind ja :D erhellende :cool: Nachrichten...

gasadi:rolleyes:
Das, was Timminco hier offenbar geschafft hat, ist sehr beeindruckend, sehr interessant und sehr bedeutsam für die ganze Solar-Branche.

Um so wichtiger sind weitere Antworten, Daten und Fakten. Was mir als erstes so durch den Kopf geht:

1.) Ist der Name einer oder aller Zellhersteller bekannt, an die Timminco liefert?

2.) Ist bekannt, ob das UMG-Si von Timminco pur verwendet werden kann oder ob es mit Siemens-Si verschnitten werden muss?

3.) Welche Zelleffektivität ist erreichbar?

4.) Wie hoch werden die Produktionskosten pro kg für dieses UMG-Si sein?

5.) Zu welchen Preisen pro kg kann Timminco das UMG-Si verkaufen?


Wenn jemand schon einige oder alle ;) Antworten parat hat, wäre ich sehr dankbar!

Viele Grüße.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.460.429 von MontPelerin am 24.02.08 15:56:56
Na ups, eine Antwort scheint sich aus der Präsentation zu ergeben:

Only 3 customers were not able to successfully use the
material due to lack of polysilicon for blending



Man braucht also scheinbar Siemens-Si fürs blending - wäre sonst ja auch ein Kracher gewesen. (ist es so aber auch schon...)

Welches Mischverhältnis? 1:1?

Aus meiner Sicht ist diese Notwendigkeit zum blending sehr wichtig, um Timminco zu beurteilen - habe dazu etwas im SV-Thread geschrieben.
capgap hat vorgeschlagen, die Diskussion um UMG-Silizium auf den Timminco-Thread zu konzentrieren, weil hier - anders als im Solarvalue-Thread - über ein konkretes Produkt diskutiert werden kann.

Ich wiederhole hier daher zunächst mein Statement zum langfristigen Preisrisiko bei UMG-Si:
(Anmerkung: SV sehe ich derzeit nicht als ernsthaften Anwärter auf eine Produktion von solartauglichem UMG-Si. Die Ausführungen standen im Zusammenhang mit einem "was-wäre-wenn"-Szenario für SV. Aber Konkurrenz dürfte Timminco sicher bekommen. Von ELKEM sehr wahrscheinlich und vielleicht noch von anderen Anbietern - insofern bleibt das beschriebene Grundproblem bestehen - mit oder ohne SV)

------------------------------------
Ein entscheidender Punkt ist, dass - soweit ich es sehe - UMG-Si mit herkömmlichem Siemens-Si verschnitten werden muss, um für Solarzellen tauglich zu sein. Q-Cells hat mehrfach gesagt, dass sie das UMG-Si von Elkem am Anfang im Verhältnis 1:1 mit herkömmlichem Solarsilizium mischen müssen und dass sie hoffen, diesen Siemens-Anteil langsam zurückfahren zu können.

Man sollte vielleicht aus Vorsichtsgründen davon ausgehen, dass das auch bei dem UMG-Si von Timminco und von SV notwendig wäre.

Daraus ergibt sich aber, dass die Verfügbarkeit von Siemens-Si einen natürlichen Deckel für die Menge an UMG-Si bildet, die verarbeitet werden kann. Denn für jede Tonne UMG-Si von wem auch immer, müsste eine Tonne (oder etwas mehr oder weniger) Siemens-Si zum mischen zur Verfügung stehen.

Nehmen wir weiter an, dass es 2010 neben SV zumindest zwei weitere UMG-Si-Produzenten gibt - bspw. Timminco und Elkem.

Nehmen wir letztlich noch an, dass der sehr massive Ausbau einer UMG-Si-Produktion, wenn der Prozess erst mal grundsätzlich hinhaut, schnell und preiswert möglich ist. Die gewaltigen Ausbaupläne von Timminco sprechen zunächst mal dafür, dass das so ist.

Was folgt aus all diesen Prämissen?

Für mich folgt daraus, dass die Produktionsmenge an UMG-Si sehr schnell von den einzelnen Herstellern bis zu der Menge gesteigert werden wird, die max. genutzt werden kann - und wahrscheinlich zunächst darüber hinaus.

In einem solchen Szenario würden die Preise in Richtung der Grenzkosten des effizientesten Herstellers fallen, der vielleicht Elkem sein könnte.

Die Wertschöpfung wäre dann selbst beim Kostenführer bescheiden, bei den anderen bei quasi Null.

Das Fazit ist, dass ich glaube, dass selbst im Erfolgsfall für SV letztlich nicht viel rum kommen wird. Das gilt mittelfristig dann wohl auch für Timminco, sobald es zumindest einen potenten Konkurrenten gibt.

Sollte es möglich sein, UMG-Si pur zu verwenden und trotzdem auf konkurrenzfähige Zellwirkungsgrade zu kommen, ändert das natürlich einiges an meinem Negativszenario - jedoch wahrscheinlich selbst dann nur in zeitlicher und nicht in grundsätzlicher Hinsicht.
:) @ Capgap, MontPelerin, Haladin, Daxschaefchen

und wer immer noch interessiert ist -
hier kann's dann weitergehen...


:confused: Nebenbei noch eine andere Frage:
wie seht ihr denn Hoku Scientific in diesem Zusammenhang - deren Aus baupläne sind da ja auch nicht gerade bescheiden...?


gasadi :rolleyes:
capgap hat im SV-Thread angegeben, dass er sich derzeit kein Mischungsverhältnis mit mehr als 25% UMG-Si vorstellen kann - in Zukunft aber durchaus 50% - alles weitere ist fragwürdig.

Ich gehe davon aus, dass das mögliche Mischungsverhältnis einen direkten Einfluss auf den Preis des UMG-Si hat.

Mit den Zahlen zum 1. Quartal 2008 müssten wir einen gewissen Einblick hinsichtlich Produktionskosten, Verkaufspreise und Gewinnspannen bekommen.

Es wird außerdem in diesem Jahr sehr spannend zu beobachten sein, ob Timminco die Produktion wirklich so schnell skalieren kann. Elkem scheint da deutlich länger zu brauchen, was mich ehrlich gesagt schon etwas überrascht.


der Chart ist beeindruckend.......
mein lieber Scholli......
wooooowwww: von etwas über 0 im December auf 23........
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.482.534 von Unkenhorst1 am 26.02.08 19:48:14:cool: ja, beeindruckend - und es könnte demnächst noch eine Mitteilung kommen - der letzte Punkt des Zeitplans ist noch offen:

"Investment of $24M CAD for 3,600 MT/year capacity
􀂃 Ground breaking ceremony in August 2007.
􀂃 First line start-up on December 19th. 2007.
􀂃 First line reached nominal capacity on January 7th and
operates at 80% on average since January 3rd. (first
day of continuous operation)
􀂃 Yield of finished product at 50% of nominal and
improving as quantity of recycling material increases.
􀂃 Second line in operation on February 2nd. 2008.
􀂃 Third line start-up forecast late February."

gasadi :rolleyes:
Im cc von Q-Cells am 19.2. wurde erneut gesagt, dass sie sogar aus 100% m-SI brauchbare Zellen geschnitzt haben...

UND Milner sagte:

"Do I believe, that in 2009 and 2010 there will be sufficient m-SI?

Definitely!!"...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.496.224 von meinolf67 am 27.02.08 20:17:44
Hi Meinolf,

kannst Du aus dem CC ableiten, wie die LBBW zu folgender Aussage kommt?


STUTTGART (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Die LBBW hat Q-Cells mit "Kaufen" und einem Kursziel von 100 Euro bestätigt. Das Solarunternehmen habe mit den Zahlen zum Geschäftsjahr 2007 bewiesen, dass es bei der Produktion von kristallinen Solarzellen das Maß aller Dinge sei, schrieb Analyst Stephan Droxner in einer Branchenstudie vom Dienstag. Die Schwierigkeiten bei REC und Elkem sowie der etwas höhere Risikoabschlag würden durch die infolge der neuen Produktionslinie überraschend gute Kostenposition und die mittel- bis langfristigen guten Wachstumsaussichten kompensiert.


Vor einer puren Verwendung des UMG-Si habe ich richtig Angst. Das würde langfristig nicht nur den UMG-Preis zerstören, sondern die ganze Wertschöpfung der Solarindustrie für die Eigentümer. Im Grunde ist das zwar die Aufgabe des Kapitalismus, aber für mich gaaanz schlecht.

Normales met. Silizium wird ja wohl im Millionen-Tonnen-Bereich produziert. Wenn man die UMG-Si-Produktion bis 2010 "nur" auf 100.000 bis 200.000 Tonnen hoch fährt (nicht ohne Elkem natürlich) und dann vielleicht noch pur verwendet, haben wir schon wieder bis zu 25 GW mehr Solar-Produktion, da noch 20 GW aus Siemens und 10 GW aus Dünnschicht - 55 GW in 2010?

Das ist niemlas zu installieren und auch die Kostensenkung kann kaum so schnell ablaufen, dass man das bei einer guten Marge abgenommen bekommt.

--------------

Was stoppt UMG-Si? Die Verfügbarkeit besonders reinen Quarzes? Dass der Prozess am Ende vielleicht doch teurer oder schlechter skalierbar ist, als wir denken?

Oder ist das nicht zu stoppen?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.498.791 von MontPelerin am 28.02.08 07:35:26Habe den CC eher oberflächlich gehört, weswegen ich zu den Leistungsdaten der neuen Linien nichts sagen kann. Glaube aber auch nicht, dass dazu viel gesagt worden ist.

Für mich neu war die im vorherigen Posting beschriebene Milner-Äußerung.

Hinsichtlich Deiner Ängste:

Meine Überzeugung ist, je billiger dass SI desto besser, weil damit letzlich der erzeugte Strom billiger werden kann.

Allerdings werden nicht mehr alle Boote gut vorankommen, sondern es wird viele, viele Havarien geben. Aber auch im Handy- oder Computermarkt gibt es profitable Player...

Ansonsten denke ich, wenn das Angebot erstmal reichlich ist, dass das Verkaufen seine Bedeutung zurückerhält und Wertschöpfung (auch in Aktienkursen) sich tendenziell downstream bewegt.

Spannende Branche.

PS: das Siemens-Verfahren ist letztlich doch ein Scheiß, seien wir mal ehrlich: teuer und energetisch ineffizient. Kann nur begrüßen, wenn es ausstirbt. ;) naja, Semi bleibt ja wohl auf jeden Fall.

PS2: m-SI Produktion soll so bei 1,2-1,3 Mio. To/a liegen, also gar nicht so viel: bei 10g/Wp wären dass gut 120 GW; aber es gibt ja auch noch andere Verwendungen...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.506.823 von meinolf67 am 28.02.08 18:30:56m-SI Produktion soll so bei 1,2-1,3 Mio. To/a liegen

Dieser Wert gilt nur für die westliche Welt. Da kommen die Chinesen, die momentan munter aufrüsten, sowie weitere Hersteller in Asien noch dazu.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.511.111 von capgap am 29.02.08 07:41:39
Ich habe mir heute mal ein paar historische Zahlen von Timminco angesehen, um den Einfluss der Solar-Si-Verkäufe in Q1/2008 dann besser beurteilen zu können.

Dabei ist mir zum einen aufgefallen, dass Timminco über die letzten Jahre ziemlich schreckliche Zahlen gemeldet hat und m.E. Richtung Pleite getaumelt ist. Sie brauchen die Solar-Story dringend. Zum einen, um in die Gewinnzone zu kommen, zum anderen, um eine Story zu haben, auf deren Basis man an neues Kapital rankommen konnte.

Ich will nicht sagen, dass es nur eine Story ist und nichts dahinter steckt. Aber man war ganz klar in Zeitnot und vielleicht ist die Sache noch nicht zu Ende optimiert.

Mal folgendes aus dem Q-Bericht:

Bécancour is currently able to produce solar grade silicon at a purity level of 99.999%, or “five nines”,
which is acceptable to its existing customers. The Company believes that it may be able to achieve a
higher purity level, which could enhance the Company’s competitive advantage and may allow for
increased selling prices and margins for its solar grade silicon business. The Company intends to invest
certain resources, including a portion of the net proceeds of the September 2007 offering, in an effort to
achieve this objective. However, there is no assurance that the Company will achieve any higher purity
level for its solar grade silicon. Any inability of the Company to improve the purity of its solar grade
silicon could result in the Company being unable to attract new customers or retain existing customers,
which in turn could have a material adverse effect on the financial position, results of operations and
liquidity of the Company.


5 Neunen? Das scheint mir nicht so ganz der Kracher zu sein, oder?

PS: Die Jahreskapazität von Timminco liegt bei 50.000 Tonnen (nur herkömmlicher Si-Bereich).
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.525.483 von MontPelerin am 01.03.08 20:31:23@MontPelerin

wenn die Finanzlage so schwach ist, wie erklärst du dir dann das (bezieht sich auf den Kapazitätsausbau):


"Funding of the project will be from current liquidity, customer deposits under long term supply agreements and expected cash flow from operations and will be expended throughout 2008 and the first half of 2009."

Auch wird in Analysten-Kommentaren von einem KGV von 5 geredet...

:confused:

gasadi
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.529.004 von gasadi am 02.03.08 19:07:49
Hi gasadi,

mit dem neuen UMG-Si sind sehr wahrscheinlich viel bessere Margen realisierbar, als mit dem bisherigen normalen metallurgischen Silizium.

Insofern wird sich die Finanzsituation von Timminco sicher in der nächsten Zeit stark verbessern, wenn die UMG-Produktion so richtig läuft.

Ich würde so sagen: Ohne UMG-Si (Solar-Si) wären sie Richtung Konkurs geschlittert, mit UMG-Si werden sie möglicherweise in Zukunft einen Haufen Geld verdienen - mindestens so lange, bis auch dieses Zeug ein Massenprodukt geworden ist.

Die Fragen sind jetzt:

Schaffen sie wirklich den ramp-up der Großproduktion?
Können sie in der Großproduktion die Qualität halten?
Wie hoch sind die Margen, die sie mit ihrem - ja doch nicht ganz so sauberen - UMG-Si erzielen?

Antworten bekommen wir ab sofort mit jedem Quartalsbericht. Timminco hat in der Vergangenheit immer schön exakt berichtet und eine Segmentsaufteilung vorgenommen, so dass wir die Zahlen der Silizium-Sparte direkt vergleichen können.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.529.103 von MontPelerin am 02.03.08 19:25:59
danke, MontPelerin! Das war hilfreich... gasadi
Ist alles hochinteressant hier.
Auf die Kopplung an das Siemens-Si bin ich mal gespannt, aber das steckt eben noch alles in den Kinderschuhen, was man dort mittelfristig realisieren kann, da sind auch die Zellhersteller absolut gefragt.

Umschifft man aber diese Probleme, wird man UMG-Si kaum aufhalten können, am Rohstoff mangelts bei den Größenordungen sicher nicht, der energieverbrauch ist geringer wie anderswo, also dürfte man das kaum stoppen können.
Kann mir auch nicht vorstellen, dass die Anlagen irgendwann nicht mehr skalieren, da sollte es kaum ein Limit geben.

Preislich ist das alles aber kaum abschätzbar, gerade auch weil ziemliche Mengen an Siemensmaterial kommen werden, die im Optimalfall für UMG-Si mehr oder weniger überflüssig wären. Aber bis dahin ists auch noch ein Weilchen, da man die effizenz der Zellen so schnell kaum steigern wird mit dem weniger guten Material.

Gibts eigentlich konkretere Infos, ob Timminco auch irgendwelche Forschungsabsichten mit zellherstellern laufen hat, die auch in die Richtung zielen bei der zellfertigung noch was zu drehen, sprich verschiedene Dicken bzw. Schichten mit mehr oder weniger Siemens-Si etc.
Vielleicht ein neuer Konkurrent?
(na ja, vermutlich wird bald jeder MG-Si-Hersteller auf UMG-Solar-Si machen (wollen)...)


Globe steigt in das Solarsilizium-Geschäft ein


12.03.2008: Globe Speciality Metals Inc., der nach eigenen Angaben weltweit größte Hersteller von metallurgischem Silizium, steigt in das Geschäft mit Solarsilizium ein – doch alle Details liegen im Dunkeln.

Aus der langen Presseerklärung von Globe geht vor allem hervor, dass man derzeit 81 Prozent an Solsil Inc. erwirbt, wobei es sich um einen Produzenten »von Silizium in höchster Reinheit handelt, das durch einen eigenen metallurgischen Prozess hergestellt und in Solarzellen verwendet wird«.
Damit wird Globe zum direkten Konkurrenten seiner Kunden, den weltgrößten Solarsilizium-Produzenten, darunter Hemlock Semiconductor Corp., Wacker Chemie AG und Renewable Energy Corp. ASA. Wie groß die neue Konkurrenz wird, ist unklar: Zu den geplanten Kapazitäten schweigt sich Globe ebenso aus wie über den Kaufpreis, das genaue Produktionsverfahren und sogar den Standort von Solsil. Aus Daten der Umweltbehörde Ohio Environment Protection Agency geht allerdings hervor, dass Solsil im vergangenen Jahr die Genehmigung zum Bau einer Produktionsstätte in Waterford, Ohio, beantragt hat. Der Bau von zwölf Induktionsöfen à ein Megawatt Leistung und drei Hammermühlen wurde daraufhin genehmigt. Sie könnten metallurgisches Silizium weiterverarbeiten, das Globe am gleichen Standort produziert.

Globe, deren Aktien an der Londoner Börse gehandelt werden, gibt an, dass die künftige Solarsilizium-Sparte bereits heute an »weltweit führende Hersteller von Solarzellen, Ingots und Wafern« liefert. Bei profunden Kennern des weltweiten Siliziumsgeschäfts ist Solsil allerdings so gut wie unbekannt. Ein Experte, der regelmäßig Studien zur weltweiten Siliziumindustrie verfasst, meint zum Beispiel: »Es könnte sein, dass sie nicht viel mehr als eine Idee haben. Und einige der Globe-Leute besitzen Anteile an Solsil. Indem sie diese verkaufen, könnten sie Geld von Globe in ihre eigenen Taschen leiten.«
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.641.883 von MontPelerin am 14.03.08 14:22:05Die Sache wird langsam wirklich interessant. Der Mehrheitseigner an Timminco, die AMG, hat sich Graphit Kropfmühl unter den Nagel gerissen. GK produziert in Deutschland unter anderem Silizium-Metall in der Größenordnung von 30.000 to/a.
Das sieht danach aus, als ob ma mit UMG-Silicium groß in den deutschen markt einsteigen will.
__________________________________________________________________
Graphit Kropfmühl AG: AMG - Group übernimmt mehr als 62 % an der Graphit
Kropfmühl AG





Graphit Kropfmühl AG / Übernahmeangebot

18.03.2008

Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News, übermittelt durch die DGAP - ein
Unternehmen der EquityStory AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber verantwortlich.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Graphit Kropfmühl AG ( ISIN DE0005896005 / WKN 589600)

Die AMG Invest GmbH, eine 100 % Tochter der AMG Advanced Metallurgical
Group N.V., Amsterdam, hat mit Vertrag vom 18. März 2008 von der Quantum
Unternehmensbeteiligung GmbH & Co, Hamburg, deren sowie die Aktien der
Gesellschafter der Quantum Unternehmensbeteiligung GmbH & Co an der Graphit
Kropfmühl AG gekauft.

Mit Vollzug des Vertrages, der unter dem Vorbehalt der Zustimmung des
deutschen Bundeskartellamtes steht, wird die AMG - Group damit 62,3 % an
der Graphit Kropfmühl AG halten.

Die AMG Invest GmbH hat angekündigt, ein freiwilliges öffentliches
Übernahmeangebot zum Erwerb sämtlicher Aktien der Graphit Kropfmühl AG mit
einem Angebotspreis von EUR 18,25 pro Aktie abgeben zu wollen.

Die Quantum Unternehmensbeteiligung GmbH & Co betont, dass es ihr wichtig
war, das über 12 Jahre begleitete Unternehmen auf diese Weise mit einem
sehr starken strategischen Partner verbunden zu haben, der sowohl im
Bereich Graphit als auch in der Silizium-Sparte das anspruchsvolle Wachstum
von Umsatz und Ertrag der Graphit Kropfmühl AG weiter begleiten und fördern
kann.

Zur AMG - Group gehört die Becancour Silicon Inc., Kanada, die über die
Timminco Limited gehalten wird. Timminco Ltd. und Graphit Kropfmühl AG
waren schon früher gesellschaftsrechtlich verknüpft.

Mit der AMG - Group als Großaktionär öffnen sich für die Graphit Kropfmühl
AG ertragstarke Perspektiven für das Wachstum insbesondere auf dem Gebiet
der Silicium-Produktion für die Solarindustrie.

Als bedeutender Hersteller und Anbieter metallurgischer Hochwertprodukte
ist auch aus der Sicht der Graphit Kropfmühl AG mit der AMG - Group ein
Großaktionär hinzugetreten, der einen wesentlichen Beitrag zum weiteren
Ausbau der Graphit-Sparte des Unternehmens und dessen Positionierung als
einen der bedeutenden Anbieter von Hochwertgraphiten erbringen kann.

Nähere Informationen zur Graphit Kropfmühl AG finden Sie unter
www.gk-graphite.com. Näheres zur AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.
(NYSE-Euronext: 'AMG') finden Sie unter www.amg-nv.com.

Vor dem Hintergrund des seitens der AMG-Invest GmbH angekündigten
freiwilligen Übernahmeangebotes und um den Aktionären zu dessen Beurteilung
möglichst umfassende Informationen zu gewährleisten, wird der
Veröffentlichungstermin des Konzern-Jahresfinanzberichtes der Graphit
Kropfmühl AG vom 30. April 2008 auf den 2. April 2008 vorgezogen.
Gleichzeitig wird die bisher ebenfalls für den 30. April 2008 vorgesehene
Bilanzpressekonferenz vorverlegt und findet nunmehr am Mittwoch, den
2. April 2008 um 10 Uhr im Bayerischen Hof in München statt.

Der Vorstand / Kropfmühl, den 18. März 2008

Finanzkalender
Jahresbericht 2007 02. April 2008
Bilanzpressekonferenz, Hotel 02. April 2008, 10.00 Uhr
Bayerischer Hof, München
8. Münchner Small und Mid Cap-Konferenz 29. April 2008
Bericht zum ersten Quartal 2008 14. Mai 2008
Hauptversammlung, München 03. Juli 2008
Bericht zum 2. Quartal 2008 12. August 2008
Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum Herbst 2008 10.-12. November 2008
Bericht zum 3. Quartal 2008 18. November 2008

Zukunftsgerichtete Aussagen
Diese Pressemitteilung enthält Aussagen über zukünftige Entwicklungen, die
auf derzeit zur Verfügung stehenden Informationen beruhen und die Risiken
und Unsicherheiten bergen, die dazu führen können, dass die tatsächlichen
Ergebnisse von den vorausschauenden Aussagen abweichen können. Die Aussagen
über zukünftige Entwicklungen sind nicht als Garantien zu verstehen. Die
zukünftigen Entwicklungen und Ereignisse sind vielmehr abhängig von einer
Vielzahl von Faktoren, sie beinhalten verschiedene Risiken, und
Unwägbarkeiten und beruhen auf Annahmen, die sich möglicherweise als nicht
zutreffend erweisen. Dazu zählen zum Beispiel nicht vorhersehbare
Veränderungen der politischen, wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen
Rahmenbedingungen.

Über das Unternehmen
Die Graphit Kropfmühl AG ist Spezialist für die Herstellung von
Siliciummetall und ein weltweit führender Anbieter für veredelten
Naturgraphit mit Standorten in Europa, Asien und Afrika. Das im Prime
Standard notierte Unternehmen (ISIN: DE0005896005) bietet seinen Kunden
Siliciummetall und Graphite für vielfältige Verwendungsmöglichkeiten.
Siliciummetall wird in der Chemie-, Aluminium-, Halbleiter- und
Solarzellenindustrie genutzt. Hochwertige Graphite werden u. a. in
Schmierstoffen, als Kohlebürsten in Elektromotoren und in der Chemischen
Industrie beispielsweise für Wärmedämmung und Energiesparprogramme
eingesetzt.

18.03.2008 Finanznachrichten übermittelt durch die DGAP


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sprache: Deutsch
Emittent: Graphit Kropfmühl AG
Langheinrichstraße 1
94051 Hauzenberg
Deutschland
Telefon: +49 (0)8586 609-1 31
Fax: +49 (0)8586 609-1 11
E-Mail: ir@gk-graphite.com
Internet: www.gk-graphite.com
ISIN: DE0005896005
WKN: 589600
Börsen: Regulierter Markt in Frankfurt (Prime Standard); Freiverkehr
in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hamburg, München, Stuttgart

Ende der Mitteilung DGAP News-Service

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.timminco.com/press/pr_031708.pdf

Da gibt's die Ergebnisse Q4 und heute früh ein conference call. Scheint nicht so gut angekommen zu sein.... MontPelerin ahnte es ja schon. Zu 2008 wird wenig gesagt - von dem schon Bekannten mal abgesehen...:(

gasadi :rolleyes:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.674.611 von gasadi am 18.03.08 16:59:03
Die Zahlen waren "wie immer" grottenschlecht. Aber das ist nicht weiter wichtig.
Die ersten Zahlen von Belang sind die des gerade laufenden Quartals, denn in denen sollten erstmals signifikante Verkaufserlöse aus dem UMG-Si auftauchen.
Mitte Mai wird Timminco wohl berichten. Ich bin sehr gespannt.

Hi capgap,

diese Übernahme ist wirklich interessant. Das könnte in der Tat darauf hindeuten, dass es bei Timminco gut läuft. Eine UMG-Produktion in Deutschland aufzubauen ist ja recht naheliegend, denn hier wird das Zeug ja schließlich verarbeitet.

Zu einem Investment kann ich mich (noch?) nicht durchringen, aber ich beobachte das alles mit ganz großem Interesse. Für mich bleibt es aber rätselhaft, wie Timminco schneller als Elkem eine Großproduktion aufbauen kann. Das macht mich misstrauisch - nur ein Bauchgefühl.

Außerdem bin ich der Meinung, dass sich spätestens mit der Vorlage des Geschäftsberichts 2007 oder der Q1-Zahlen mal einer der Kunden ganz offiziell zu Timminco bekennen sollte...
e Mar 18, 3:45 PM



By Romina Maurino, The Canadian Press

ADVERTISEMENT

TORONTO - Specialty metals producer Timminco Ltd. (TSX:TIM) said Tuesday its silicon division will drive growth this year, fuelled by increasing demand from the solar energy industry and a rebound in prices.


The Toronto-based company, whose metallurgical grade silicon is used in solar cells, said it expects demand for solar energy to boost its business, after reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $8.8 million late Monday.


"This is a great time to be in the business of silicon: over the past two years silicon metals have recuperated from historical price lows of about 50 cents per pound back in 2003," Heinz Schimmelbusch, chairman and chief executive of Timminco, said during a conference call with analysts.


In the past year, the price of silicon has more than doubled, rising above $1.80 per pound on the spot market in February, Schimmelbusch said.


"But even more promising than price recovery is our entry into the production of solar-grade silicon, which will provide tremendous upside."


Since the solar energy industry doesn't have any entrenched suppliers, Timminco is "well-positioned to capitalize on this largely untapped market, and we aim to establish ourselves as the leading global supplier of low-cost solar grade silicon to the manufacturers of solar cells," he said.


Timminco announced a plan last month to spend $65 million on an expansion at its Becancour, Que., facility, owned by its subsidiary Becancour Silicon. That expansion, which will essentially double its capacity to produce solar-grade silicon, followed a deal to supply 4,400 tonnes of solar grade silicon over five years to an unidentified maker of solar cells.


"We undertook this expansion based on a marketing success and our growing pool of potential clients," Schimmelbusch said.


"We expect that operations in our new facility will begin in mid-2009 or earlier."


Timminco said Monday it narrowed its four-quarter loss to eight cents per share from a loss of $38.7 million or 53 cents per share for the same quarter in 2006.


The 2006 loss included an asset impairment charge of $31.2 million.


Sales were $36.4 million in the quarter ended Dec. 31, down 23 per cent compared to $47.6 million the year before due to lower sales in both Timminco's silicon group and its magnesium group. The appreciation of the Canadian dollar also reduced reported sales by $4.6 million.


Schimmelbusch said Tuesday Timminco was working to eliminate short position in magnesium and restructure its alloy operation to lower costs, and expects the magnesium business to return to profitability in second half of this year.


In reporting its financial reports, Timminco said it lost $18 million or 20 cents per share for 2007, compared to a loss of $46.2 million or 62 cents per share in 2006.


Sales fell nearly nine per cent in 2007 to $166 million from $181.8 million.


Timminco has two reporting segments: the silicon group, which includes the silicon metal and solar silicon businesses, and the magnesium group, which includes the magnesium extrusion and fabrication business. Timminco also has a minority investment in an aluminum wheels business.


The company's silicon metal, magnesium extrusions and other specialty metals are used in the aluminum, chemical, pharmaceutical, electronics and automotive industries.

Timminco's shares fell $1.43 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, to trade at $15.86, a drop of more than eight per cent.
mühevoll ist sie, die Arbeit am UMG-Si...

Ein Auszug aus dem Solarworld-GB 2007:

Darüber hinaus stellt sich die Sunicon AG der strategischen Aufgabe, alternative wettbewerbsfähige
Verfahrensansätze zur Herstellung von Solarsilizium zu prüfen und mit Partnern zu entwickeln.
Im Rahmen des Ende 2006 gegründeten Joint Venture Scheuten 􀀳 Solicium (Scheuten:
50 Prozent; Solarworld AG: 50 Prozent) am Standort Freiberg/Deutschland, entwickeln wir Verfahren
zur Aufbereitung von metallurgischem Silizium zu hochreinem Solarsilizium. Bezüglich
des Zeithorizontes ist dieses Entwicklungsprojekt als mittelfristig einzustufen.


Tja, was heißt mittelfristig? Jedenfalls nach 2010 würde ich sagen...
Eine Hammer-News für Timminco. Wahrscheinlich der endgültige Durchbruch.


Die Q-Cells AG und die kanadische Bécancour Silicon Inc. (BSI) haben einen Vertrag über die Lieferung von Solarsilizium unterzeichnet. BSI ist eine 100%ige Tochter der Timminco Ltd, eines der
weltweit führenden Spezialisten für Spezial- und Leichtmetalle. Der Vertrag umfasst Lieferungen von 410 Tonnen für 2008 und 3.000 Tonnen im Jahr 2009 zu festgelegten Preisen. Die Lieferungen beginnen unverzüglich. Bis Ende Juli 2008 werden die Partner einen weiteren Vertrag für die Folge-jahre 2010 bis 2013 über Lieferungen von bis zu 6.000 Tonnen jährlich abschließen. Die Preise für diese weiteren Mengen werden abhängig vom Marktumfeld verhandelt. Mit diesem Vertrag wird Q-Cells der größte Kunde der BSI für Solarsilizium.
BSI hat ein eigenes Verfahren entwickelt, um metallurgisches Silizium zu reinigen und so für die Her-stellung von Solarzellen nutzbar zu machen. In umfangreichen Tests hat Q-Cells mit dem nicht gemischten BSI-Material sehr gute Ergebnisse in der Zellfertigung erreicht.
Wow und ich habe die Tage aufgestockt.
Danke an alle die hier Infos einstellen.
Habe ich das im Q-Cells-CC richtig verstanden, dass sie das Timminco-UMG pur verwenden wollen?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.755.753 von MontPelerin am 28.03.08 22:05:39Jau, hast Du!

Und das ist noch besser, als bei dem ELKEM-Material, wo sie das "bald erreichen wollen".

Ich glaube auch, dass es nicht ein mg-SI Standardmaterial geben wird.
Die Crux liegt in der kompletten Verarbeitungskette vom Ingot bis zur Zelle und da -behaupten sie zumindest- scheint QCE derzeit weit vorne zu liegen.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.755.753 von MontPelerin am 28.03.08 22:05:39Hallo @all,

der Trend-Trader hat die Aktie gerade zum Kauf empfohlen (vor ca. 30 Minuten). Kurspotential 50%. Ich bingerade rein und denke fest, dass hier was geht.

Gruß
Mc
Seite ist aktuell leider offline!

Präsentation in München läuft im Slot von 13:15-15:00
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.783.985 von Albanach am 01.04.08 23:14:51Ich war gestern auf der Müncher Solar-Konferenz und habe natürlich mit großem Interesse den Vortrag von Rene Boisvert mitverfolgt.

Kurz zusammengefasst:
Er macht wirklich den Anschein, dass er es wohl derzeit als einziger vernünftig beherrscht, UMG-Si herzustellen. Es wurden bereits einige Tonnen an unterschiedliche Kunden geliefert. Einer (und das ist wohl Q-Cells) kann das Material zu 100% einsetzen. Bei den anderen liegt der Verschneidegrad zwischen 30 un 70%.
Einbußen im Zellenwirkungsgrad gab er auf Rückfrage mit etwa 0,5% an.

Am Rande der Konferenz gab Boisvert außerdem eine kurze Präsentation zusammen mit der Fa. ABB, die ein Kernstück seines Verfahrens, nämlich einen elektromagnetischen Rührer, für den Erstarrungsprozess exklusiv für Timminco liefert. Die Präsentation war sehr basic, jedoch stellte sich Boisvert anschließend intensiv den Fragen der ca. 30 anwesenden Interessierten. Dabei verteilte er auch Proben seines UMG-Si.
Das Verfahren ist seit letzter Woche offiziell unter der Patent-Nr. WO 2008/031229 A1 angemeldet. Eine Kopie des Patents liegt mir vor.

Die Expansionspläne sind echt gewaltig und weitere Lieferverträge stehen bereits an, wobei er sich natürlich auf Nachfrage zu keinen weiteren Details geäußert hat. Mit anwesend war auch der Verkaufsmanager sowie der Qualitätsmanager von BSI.

Vieleicht noch ein paar Worte zu den anderen UMG-Produzenten, die anwesend waren:
Dass Solarvalue nicht mehr dabei war, ist schon bezeichnend.

Dow Corning hat fast die gleiche Folien präsentiert, wie vor einem Jahr. Über ihr Material PV1101, das derzeit nur zu 10% verschnitten werden kann sind sie noch nicht hinausgekommen. Bei PV1201 mit einem Verschneidungsziel von 25% gibt es noch Anlaufschwierigkeiten. D.C. sieht aber im UMG-Si grundsätzlich nur eine Ergänzung zum Siemens-Si und steht natürlich durch die Beteiligung bei Hemlock zu dieser Technik.

Der Vortrag von Elkem Solar war irgendwie ein Trauerspiel. Ein ziemlich resigniert wirkender Helge Aasen präsentierte erneut die Folien vom letzten Jahr, nur dass die Baustellenfotos einen Fortschritt bei den Arbeiten erahnen lassen (teilfertige Gebäude statt Baugruben).

Globe hat mit Solsil zwar ziemlich auf den Putz gehauen, Substanz konnte ich hinter dem ganzen Gebilde nicht erkennen.

Die Chinesen von Jaco Solarsi und die Japaner von JFE-Steel spielten meines erachtens eine eher untergeordente Rolle.

Die großen klassischen Hersteller wie Hemlock oder REC hacken jetzt natürlich vermehrt auf dem Thema Qualität rum, die ja UMG-Si nicht erfüllen kann, aber das werden die Zellenherteller entscheiden.

Boisvert ist jedenfalls die ganze Woche in Deutschland und mal sehen, was da noch auf uns zukommt.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.785.834 von capgap am 02.04.08 10:07:47Vielen Dank capgap!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.783.985 von Albanach am 01.04.08 23:14:51auf Seite 17 steht, dass Sie bis Q2-2009 auf 1.200 t/Monat !!! => 14.400 to/Jahr ausbauen wollen.

Invest dafür 65 MCAD = ca. 40 Mio Euro...

Dafür kriegst Du bei Hemlock und Co. nichtmal die Ingenieurdienstleister bezahlt...


WENN stimmt, was Q-Cells sagt (100%) UND das auch noch andere hinkriegen, DANN würde ich zum Verkauf von Wacker, MEMC, REC (?), ... raten.
Habe eben meine Watchlist-Posi auf Solar-Portfolio upgegradet.

Der CC vom 18.3. ist absolut hörenswert!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.785.834 von capgap am 02.04.08 10:07:47:):):)

DANKE capgab - sehr interessant!

gasadi :rolleyes:
TIMMINCO LTD. Registered Shares o.N.

KGVe:
130,79 :eek:
Q-Cells puts the pedal to the metal
By Mark Osborne
28 March 2008
Popular Articles
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Ascent Solar touts average efficiencies achieved on first roll-to-roll line - 31 March 2008
Timminco to boost metallurgical grade solar silicon production to 14,400 metric tons - 21 March 2008
Solarfun ramped capacity to 240MW in 2007: plans 360MW by mid-year 2008. - 27 March 2008
Q-Cells to use non-blended metallurgical silicon at new Malaysian fab - 28 March 2008
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Silicon solar cell producers should forget about the polysilicon shortages, while thin-film companies need not worry about silane supplies. Not because constrained supply issues are expected to ease and material costs to finally lower over the next two years, but because a potentially bigger concern is looming!

Metallurgical-grade silicon is vastly cheaper to produce and ramp than polysilicon. Granted, the purity levels are lower and efficiencies suffer, but development work at Becancour Silicon has shown that impurity levels have been reduced dramatically in only a few years, especially in relation to boron, carbon and oxygen levels.

Q-Cells have worked closely with Becancour Silicon, among others, and the company now feels extremely confident in using the material for a 300MW solar cell facility being built in Malaysia. Importantly, it will be used directly rather than blended with polysilicon.

Should polysilicon prices come down dramatically from 2010 onwards, the fear is that margins throughout the PV supply chain will suffer. Manufacturing scale becomes a key buffer to such pressures, which could see a consolidation in the market develop as smaller players get squeezed.

However, there is another buffer to margin declines - metallurgical grade silicon. Q-Cells is grabbing a significant supply of the stuff on long-term contracts just as polysilicon prices are expected to fall.

The simpler and less costly production process can also be ramped significantly faster, so expect Q-Cells to take advantage of that abundant potential supply for years to come. Others will obviously get on that bandwagon; Becancour Silicon has signed four supply deals so far and more are expected to follow.

How this impacts the established polysilicon suppliers and the 20-plus new entrants is not yet known, though it was no surprise that shares in MEMC, for example, declined on the Q-Cells new deal.

Thin-film suppliers may also find that their low-cost-per-watt approach and unshackled ramp ability may not be as strong a business approach as it has thus far proved. Silicon solar cells are fighting back and Q-Cells has the pedal to the metal in more ways than one.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.787.642 von sinfonie am 02.04.08 13:00:47ruhig brauner, die konsensschätzungen für die jahre 2008-2010 belaufen sich auf:

2008e: eps:0,49 --> kgv:46
2009e: eps:1,36 --> kgv: 18
2010e: eps:2,92 --> kgv: 8


angesichts der wachstumsraten durchaus vertretbar - IMHO...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.785.834 von capgap am 02.04.08 10:07:47
Danke capgap!

Hi Meinolf,

ich erlaube mir, Deinen Beitrag aus dem Q-Cells-Thread nach hier zu kopieren:

"Ich denke, dass das m-SI ein echter Kracher für Q-Cells werden kann.

Habe mir mal die jüngsten Timminco-Veröffentlichungen zu Gemüte geführt.

Die sprechen von cash-Produktionskosten von 12-10$ je kg.

Bei Siemens kann man froh sein, wenn man 30$ schafft und REC ist begeistert von seinem FBR-Verfahren nmit dem man vielleicht bei 20$ landen kann.

Kann mir gut vorstellen, dass Q-Cells zu Preisen von unter 40$ kauft..."


Diese Kosten- und Preisfragen sind m.E. jetzt neben der Frage, ob sie eine großtechnische Produktion hinbekommen, entscheidend. Denn man muss schon zugeben, dass Timminco schon sehr teuer ist.

Wenn es richtig ist, dass derzeit nur Q-Cells in der Lage ist, eine 100%-Nutzung des UMG-Si durchzuführen, handelt es sich um eine Win-Win-Situation, wo keiner den anderen über den Tisch ziehen kann, Q-Cells derzeit aber etwas stärker sein dürfte.

Preise unter 40 $ gehe ich auch ganz fest von aus. Vielleicht eher bei 20 jetzt am Anfang? Immerhin haben wir auch gewisse Effektivitätsverluste der Zellen.

(Oder bin ich nur zu blöd, die Riesenchance zu sehen, auch wenn sie direkt vor mir steht?)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.794.353 von MontPelerin am 02.04.08 22:44:27Hi Montpelerin,

was ich so mitbekommen habe, könnten Preise um die 40$ tatsächlich der Wirklichkeit entsprechen. Aber das sind nur Gerüchte und nichts weiter fundiertes. Dieses Niveau wird aber auf Dauer nicht zu halten sein.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.795.183 von capgap am 03.04.08 07:51:22
Das wäre ein Kracher. Immerhin hat Suntech ja einen Siemens-Deal mit Asia Silicon abgeschlossen, der Lieferungen von Si für unter 40 Dollar vorsieht. Aber zu diesen Preisen auch erst später - sicher erst nach 2010.

Tja, vielleicht sollten wir mal so etwas wie eine Matrix entwerfen, in der mit verschiedenen Produktionskosten, Verkaufspreisen, Mengen und Margen gerechnet wird, um dem Bewertungsthema mehr Basis zu geben.

Vielleicht schaffe ich es am Wochenende, mal ein paar Sachen durchzurechnen.

Hi florie78,

sind Deine KGV-Zahlen ein aktueller Analystenkonsens oder hast Du eine genaue Herleitung der Gewinngrößen?

Viele Grüße.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.793.659 von florie78 am 02.04.08 21:31:02"ruhig brauner!

diese abwertende, menschenverachtende Aussage lässt auf Dein Niveau schliessen und diese verbiete ich mir ernsthaft!
Wenn ich das hohe KGV von 130,79 hier hereinstelle, weil mich die Aktie interessiert, dann bat ich um Aufklärung und nicht um eine primitive Bemerkung!!!!
mittelfristiges Kursziel 32 USD hab ich gehört
kann das jemand bestätigen?
Erste Annährungen...

ausstehende Aktien: 104 Mio.

Kurs: 27 Dollar

Marktkapitalisierung: 2,7 Milliarden Dollar

Wert des "nicht-Solar-Geschäfts": null

UMG-Si-Kapazität 2009: 10.000 Tonnen

reale Produktionskapazität bei 60% yield: 6.000 Tonnen

Preis pro Tonne: 40.000 Dollar

Kosten pro Tonne: 10.000 Dollar

Bruttogewinn pro Tonne: 30.000 Dollar

Nettogewinn pro Tonne: 20.000 Dollar

Gesamtnettogewinn: 120 Mio. Dollar

KGV 2009: 22,5

Die meisten der gemachten Annahmen, insbesondere die Margen, sind m.E. extrem aggressiv! Außerdem ist es eine reine Modellrechnung, da ich die wirklichen Zahlen natürlich keinen Einblick habe
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.806.288 von MontPelerin am 04.04.08 08:56:33

Hi, MontPelerin -

hieß es aber nicht, in 2009 sollen 14.000 t produziert werden?

Bist du inzwischen auch investiert - oder ist dir das alles noch zu windig?

gasadi
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.806.288 von MontPelerin am 04.04.08 08:56:33die Yield kommt mir niedrig vor und Dein Gewinn ist vor Steuern.

Das KGV wird üblicherweise nach Steuern ermittelt.
Thu Apr 3, 4:46 PM

By The Canadian Press
ADVERTISEMENT

TORONTO - Timminco Ltd.'s already sky-high stock soared 12 per cent Thursday as investors took a shine to the specialty metals producer (TSX:TIM) following its success with solar-grade silicon - a material used in turning sunlight into electrical power.

Timminco shares rose $2.90 to close at $26.70 on the TSX, a rise of $2.90.

The stock, which traded at just 70 cents a share last year, hit a 52-week high earlier in the day, when it traded as high as $27.89. About 3.7 million shares changed hands Thursday

Timminco shares had soared to a record $26.50 last week, following an announcement that the Toronto-based company had signed a deal to supply solar grade silicon to Q-Cells AG, the world's largest manufacturer of solar cells.

The deal with Timminco subsidiary Becancour Silicon Inc. means the company will supply Q-Cells with 410 tonnes of silicon in 2008 and 3,000 tonnes in 2009 at fixed prices.

That contract followed a previous announcement by Timminco that it was expanding Becancour's solar grade silicon capacity to 14,400 tonnes per year.

The company makes metallurgical grade silicon used in the production of solar cells.

It also makes silicon metal, magnesium extrusions and other specialty metals are used in the aluminum, chemical, pharmaceutical, electronics and automotive industries.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.072 von meinolf67 am 04.04.08 10:13:54
Hi Meinolf,

die 20.000 Dollar pro Tonne sollten nach Steuern sein - also Nettomarge von 50% - wie gesagt, das wäre die beste aller Welten und ich denke nicht, dass das sehr wahrscheinlich ist.

Aber selbst dann wäre das KGV über 20. In der Realität ist es wahrscheinlich über 30.

Aber nehmen wir mal ein realeres Szenario:

Preis pro Tonne: 30.000 Dollar

Kosten pro Tonne: 12.000 Dollar

Bruttogewinn pro Tonne (als EBIT): 18.000 Dollar

Nettogewinn pro Tonne: 12.000 Dollar

Gesamtnettogewinn: 72 Mio. Dollar

KGV 2009: 38


Es ist klar, dass wir bei den Variablen eine sehr große Bandbreite für die Schätzungen haben und zu wenig über die realen Verhältnisse wissen. Reicht es aus, einfach nur "strategisch" zu investieren? In der Vergangenheit habe ich damit nicht unbedingt nur gute Erfahrungen gemacht.

Auf der anderen Seite können sie natürlich die Quantität schnell und stark steigern, was alles wieder relativiert.

Hi Gasadi,

"windig" würde ich auf keinen Fall sagen. Ich habe aber zwei Probleme:

1.) Schaffen sie es wirklich, große Mengen in guter Qualität mit ihrem Verfahren zu produzieren?

2.) Was ist mit der Bewertung (siehe oben)?


Ich bin nicht investiert. Vielleicht einer dieser Idioten-Fehler, die ich immer mal gern mache...

Bei der Produktionskapazität und der tatsächlichen Ausbeute habe ich mich an der Präsentation von 01. April orientiert - bspw.:

our capacity
will increase to 1,200 MT/month by the end of Q2-2009.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.807.959 von MontPelerin am 04.04.08 11:33:46Ich bin auch -noch- nicht wirklich "investiert"; habe nur 50 Stück.

Das ist bei mir der Zwischenwert: nicht mehr nur ein Guckstüch, aber auch noch keine echte Position.


Aber mit dem Wert, liegt es jetzt auf meiner Hauptbepbachtungsseite und ich sehe Sie mir wirklich jeden Tag, wenn ich am Computer sitze.

Bei den Guckstücken kann das auch mal drei Monate dauern...


Wenn man ein ernsthaftes engement überlegt, macht es sichr auch Sinn, sich mal AMG im Vergleich anzuschauen. Die halten >50% und habe eben Graphit Kropfmühl gekauft...

Außerdem gehört ihnen ALD Vacuum Devices, die Ingot-Öfen bauen; ALD ist mir in ein paar SEC-Filings der chinesischen Buden begegnet.

Auch die Präsentationen von AMG sind recht instruktiv.
Ein weiterer Punkt, den man bei der Bewertung eigentlich nicht ganz vernachlässigen darf, ist, dass das bisherige Stammgeschäft ein einziger Verlustbringer ist.

Ich habe den Wert dieses Geschäfts oben vereinfacht mit Null angesetzt - in Wahrheit ist der Wert aber negativ und kann den Gewinn aus dem UMG schnell um 10 bis 20 Mio. Dollar mindern.

Ich gehe aber davon aus, dass Timminco hier schnell handeln wird, sobald UMG mal richtig läuft. Gerade die Zahlen 2008 werden aber m.E. noch stark durch Verluste des Altgeschäfts "verzerrt" sein.
Hier eine Ansage von Timminco aus dem GB 2007 zur Preisstruktur (trifft genau das von capgap vermutete Niveau):

"We believe that we
can achieve an average cost of $12 per kilogram for 2008,
approximately half that of the $20 to $25 per kilogram of
existing polysilicon producers, and 20% of the cost to new
entrants to the market."


Außerdem denke ich, dass Timminco in 2007 die Tonne Solar-Silizium für ca. 37.000 Dollar verkauft hat. Oder eben für 37,00 Dollar pro Kilogramm.

Das ist aber etwas spekulativ...

Mir ist nur aufgefallen, dass im GB davon die Rede ist, dass die Silizium-Sparte im Gesamtjahr 103,7 Mio. Umsatz gemacht hat
(S. 18 des GB: Silicon Group
For the year ended 2007, sales of the Silicon Group were
$103.7 million, down slightly from $107.3 million in 2006.)
Die Zahl von 103,7 Millionen Dollar wird in der Segmentberichterstattung auf Seite 53 bestätigt.

Jetzt mal die Zahlen der ersten drei Quartale:

In the Silicon Group, sales for the first quarter of 2007 were $23.1 million compared with $23.0 million in
the first quarter of 2006, an increase of $0.1 million.

In the Silicon Group, sales for the second quarter of 2007 were $24.4 million compared with $20.8 million in
the second quarter of 2006, an increase of $3.6 million.

In the Silicon Group, sales for the third quarter of 2007 were $28.6 million compared with $28.1 million in
the third quarter of 2006, an increase of $0.5 million.

Da haben wir also:

23,1 +
24,4 +
28,6
= 76,1 Mio.

Um auf 103,7 Millionen Jahresumsatz zu kommen, muss der Umsatz in Q4 also 27,6 Mio. betragen haben.

Auf Seite 19 des GB 2007 heißt es dann aber:

In the Silicon Group, sales for the fourth quarter of 2007
were $24.3 million
compared with $31.9 million in the fourth
quarter of 2006. During the quarter, the Group shipped
33 metric tonnes of solar grade silicon.

Wieso nur 24,3 Millionen? Wo sind die restlichen 3,3 Millionen Dollar Umsatz?

Man kann drei Erklärungen annehmen:

1.)Ich habe mich verrechnet oder etwas falsch verstanden

2.)Timminco hat sich auf Seite 19 verdruckt

3.)Timminco hat (irrtümlich?) auf Seite 19 nur den Umsatz mit dem herkömmlichen metallurgischen Silizium angegeben und das Solar-Silizium, das in Zukunft voraussichtlich eine eigene Sparte sein wird, weggelassen.

Wenn 3.) stimmt, stellen diese 3,3 Millionen den Umsatz der noch nicht offiziellen Sparte Solarsilizium dar.

Auf Seite 18 des GB heißt es dann:

Sales of solar grade silicon totalled 89
tonnes for 2007
, all of which was produced from the Group’s
pilot plant.

Wenn also 89 Tonnen verkauft worden sind und wenn man annimmt, dass der Umsatz vollständig in Q4 realisiert wurde und wenn damit 3,3 Millionen erlöst worden sind, dann ergibt sich ein Verkaufspreis von 37.078,-- Dollar / Tonne bzw. 37 Dollar / Kg.

Damit würde folgendes Szenario gelten:

Produktion in 2009: 6.000 Tonnen

Preis pro Tonne: 37.000 Dollar

Kosten pro Tonne: (unterstellt als Vollkosten) 12.000 Dollar

Bruttogewinn pro Tonne (als EBIT): 25.000 Dollar

Nettogewinn pro Tonne: 16.666 Dollar

Gesamtnettogewinn: 100 Mio. Dollar ./. 15 Mio. Dollar Verlust der Altsparten
= 85 Mio. Dollar

KGV 2009: 32

Mal sehen, ob sich das mit den Q1-Zahlen so in etwa bestätigt.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.875.931 von MontPelerin am 13.04.08 20:15:27Respekt.

War viel Arbeit, oder?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.875.931 von MontPelerin am 13.04.08 20:15:27Klasse Beitrag! Vielen Dank dafür!
Wie ist Eure Meinung zu ARISE?
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - April 11, 2008) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco")(TSX:TIM - News) today announced that John Walsh, President - Magnesium Division and a member of the Board of Directors of Timminco, has resigned to pursue other opportunities.

ADVERTISEMENT
"John made important contributions to the on-going restructuring of Timminco's magnesium business," said Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, CEO and Chairman of the Board of Timminco. "We regret that John will be leaving us, and wish him all the best in his future endeavours."

John Fenger, Vice President - Aluminum Products of Timminco, will assume all of John Walsh's duties effective immediately. John Fenger, who has been an officer of Timminco since 2004 and has extensive international experience in the metals industry, will continue to drive efforts to return Timminco's magnesium business to profitability and continue to position it to achieve Timminco's strategic objectives.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.880.990 von meinolf67 am 14.04.08 16:40:58
Ja, der halbe Sonntag war "im Eimer". ;) Und mehr als eine Spekulation ist es natürlich trotzdem nicht.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.882.094 von MontPelerin am 14.04.08 18:31:22Lies' Dir mal die neuen Postings im SI-Thread durch, da steht auch was zu m-SI und Timminco drin...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.875.931 von MontPelerin am 13.04.08 20:15:27Hallo MontPelerin,

schöne Rechnung, die es auf den Punkt bringt. Vielen Dank
Ich möchte zu deinen Berechnungen noch Zahlen ergänzen, die Michael Rogol (Photon Consulting) bei seiner Präsentation auf der Solarkonferenz bzgl. Steigerung des Nettogewinn von Timminco über die kommenden Jahre angeführt hat.

2007 -$13Mio
2008 $36Mio
2009 $195Mio
2010 $364Mio

Diese Schätzungen liegen allerdings für 2009 um Faktor zwei über deinen Berechnungen.

@Meinolf67:
Wo finde ich besagten SI-Thread?

Gruß
Capgap
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.898.167 von capgap am 16.04.08 14:23:23
Hi capgap,

danke für die Info. Was M. Rogol sagt, ist auf jeden Fall wichtiger, als das, was ich mir so Sonntags ausdenke. ;)

Wenn Rogol recht behält, ist Timminco ein Kauf. Nach meinem Szenario derzeit wahrscheinlich eher nicht.

Mich würde interessiern, wie Rogol zu seinen Zahlen kommt. Meinolf hat ja schon gesagt, dass er meine Annahme zum Yield zu konservativ findet. Das ist natürlich eine wichtige Stellschraube...

Ansonsten hier der neue Thread von Meinolf - wie immer sehr lesenswert!

Thread: Materialsammlung - Solar-SI-Projekte in aller Welt...
das war ja mal wieder ein dunkel-grüner tag bei TIM
da hat einer nach börsenschluß nochmal richtig hingelangt...

16:30:40 T 28.39 +1.84 1,000,000 15 UBS 15 UBS

16:18:40 T 28.39 +1.84 2,800 53 Morgan Stanley 53

16:18:20 T 28.39 +1.84 7,000 82 Thomas Weisel 53

15:59:54 T 28.39 +1.84 3,000 82 Thomas Weisel 79 CIBC K

15:59:41 T 28.38 +1.83 200 1 Anonymous 9 BMO Nesbitt K

15:59:41 T 28.40 +1.85 700 1 Anonymous 9 BMO Nesbitt K

15:59:41 T 28.45 +1.90 100 1 Anonymous 9 BMO Nesbitt K

15:59:38 T 28.45 +1.90 1,000 1 Anonymous 7 TD Sec K

15:59:38 T 28.44 +1.89 200 1 Anonymous 1 Anonymous K

15:59:38 T 28.43 +1.88 500 1 Anonymous 2 RBC K
Kann mir jemand erklären, warum dort gestern und heute dieser Titel so abgestraft wird?
Ich kann im Netz nichts finden, keine News...

Danke!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.920.973 von JuergenKurth am 18.04.08 17:35:32
:confused: tja, ich hab auch gesucht und nichts gefunden - nur evergreen solar ist ähnlich abgestürzt, aber da gab's Zahlen...

Vielleicht ist jemand Dickes ausgestiegen...:confused:

gasadi :rolleyes:
Hab ich auch schon dran gedacht...
Vielleicht klapp der ganze Kram ja doch nicht so wie sie denken:confused:
Der Kursverfall vom Freitag kommt sicher von diesem Artikel in Barrons vom Wochenende:

Timminco Generates More Heat Than Light

ERIC SPROTT JUST FILED FOR A Canadian public offering of his Toronto money-management firm, Sprott Asset Management. The offering could make him a billionaire. What's remarkable is that Sprott owes a lot of this good fortune to his firm's huge stake in a single stock called Timminco, a Canadian metal-smelting company whose shares were the best performers on Toronto's bourse last year, rising from 30 cents to about C$22 (US$22). The gains on Timminco (ticker: TIM.Canada) contributed more than 25% of all investment returns on Sprott's assets in 2007. A private-equity group associated with Safeguard Scientifics (SFE) has benefited even more, controlling just over half of Timminco's shares as its market cap exploded from C$60 million to C$2.8 billion, on Friday's price of C$23.
[timchaart]

The justification for Timminco's share appreciation is supposed to be its invention of a low-cost way to purify the silicon needed for the booming solar-cell market. But so far, the evidence for Timminco's breakthrough appears in PowerPoint slides, not financial reports. The Toronto company's sales fell from C$190 million in 2005 to C$166 million in 2007, while operating losses grew from C$8 million in 2005 to C$16 million in 2007. The stock is far ahead of reality and vulnerable if solar silicon disappoints.

Timminco shares traded below 50 cents for years as it made magnesium and metallurgical-grade silicon that alloy makers would buy for under $1 a kilogram. Then a little over a year ago, Sprott analyst David Tomljenovic heard Timminco had a process to improve silicon purity from the 98.5% metallurgical grade to the 99.999% solar grade. Timminco could upgrade stuff it had been selling for 83 cents a kilo into purer stuff that sold for over $35 a kilo.

"That's all I needed to know," says Tomljenovic, who started buying Timminco stock at 40 cents. Sprott Asset now owns 18 million shares-a third of the free float.
[BA_Shares_Outshine.gif]

Timminco ownership is concentrated, given the 50.5% stake held by parent firm Advanced Metallurgical Group, a conglomeration of businesses assembled by Safeguard International Fund. By listing AMG on Amsterdam's Euronext exchange (AMG.Netherlands), Safeguard investors cashed in on Timminco's stock without having their more than $380 million in AMG stock sales hurt Timminco's high share price. That clever exit strategy isn't surprising given that the head of the Safeguard fund (and also chief executive of Timminco and AMG) is Heinz Schimmelbusch, a financial wiz who ran Germany's Metallgesellschaft from 1989 to 1993 -- when the company was nearly ruined by a $1.3 billion oil-futures loss.

Solar-power demand has driven contract prices above $80 a kilogram for the 99.9999999%-pure silicon that companies like Dow Chemical (DOW) and MEMC (WFR) make from a superheated-silicon gas. But solar cells don't need that much purity, and companies have tried to use metallurgical processes to make solar-cell silicon. The Elkem unit of Norway's Orkla (ORK.Norway) has spent over $700 million to start a plant. Timminco claims that its simpler approach will allow it to build a bigger plant for less than $90 million. What's more, Timminco says it can make solar-grade silicon for little more than $10 a kilogram, compared with $20 at Elkem and perhaps $35 at MEMC.Timminco Chief Financial Officer Robert Dietrich says the company's delivered over 90 metric tons of its upgraded silicon to solar customers and adds: "Our customers are very happy with the material."

In the past month, Sprott's Tomljenovic has been encouraged by a Timminco patent filing at the World Intellectual Property Organization (a U.N. registry) and, better still, a contract and hearty endorsement from the world's largest solar-cell maker, Q-Cells (QCE.Germany). The company promises profits within 2008. The Sprott analyst thinks Timminco eventually can achieve C$1.25 billion in revenues and C$5.25 in earnings per share.

The Bottom Line:
Because of their astronomical price, Timminco shares are vulnerable if solar silicon falls to meet expectations. Given the concentrated ownership, valuing the stock is tricky.

But as Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel points out in a March 27 report, Q-Cells has invested in many silicon technologies that never yielded useful products. Close inspection reveals that the patent document that cheered Tomljenovic is just an application. A search turns up prior patents with silicon-processing techniques like Timminco's -- one was even tried and rejected by Dow Chemical. Rivals also criticize Timminco's purity claims. Elkem's impurity levels are half of Timminco's, while Globe Specialty Metals (GLBM.U.K.) showed at a recent conference that Timminco samples reveal even higher impurities when alternative analytical tests are used. CFO Dietrich says Timminco's shipments meet specifications.

Timminco clearly has a lot to prove. Investors are unlikely to share in Sprott's good fortune anytime soon.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.929.755 von daxschaefchen am 21.04.08 08:11:16

@daxschaefchen:

Danke für den Fund!
So ähnlich sieht das ja MontPelerin auch, oder?

gasadi
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.929.755 von daxschaefchen am 21.04.08 08:11:16ebenfalls Danke!
Light shed on Timminco's high-flying stock

Barry Critchley, Financial Post Published: Monday, April 21, 2008
Story Tools


The incredible upward trajectory in shares of Timminco Ltd. has investors and industry watchers starting to shine a stronger light on the Canadian manufacturer of high grade silicon for the solar industry, which rose out of obscurity over the past two years to become one of the best performers on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

On Friday, shares of Timminco fell 12%, the most in almost three months, to $22.95, on three times the normal volume. That was after hitting an all-time high of $28.39 last Wednesday. Still, over the past year, the stock has gained almost eightfold and now has a market capitalization of $2.4-billion. It's a remarkable achievment, given the company doesn't make a profit.

Timminco certainly has its band of supporters, in large part because of the growing demand for silicon that's used in the solar industry and the company's claims that it can produce very high quality silicon using its patent. Among Timminco's fans is Sprott Assett Management, which owns more than 20% of the company via three entities. That translates into $500-million, a fair chunk of that profit, given that Sprott Asset Management -- which manages $6.9-billion in assets and is now in the process of going public -started buying shares at around 40¢.

As well, the company has won kudos from many analysts. Since it doesn't make money, it doesn't have a P/E measure so analysts have turned to a price-to-sales metric, popular in valuing technology companies in the dot.com era.

Clarus recently issued a report, gave the stock a buy rating with a $40 target. Paradigm Capital liked the story even better: it also gave the stock a buy with a $43 target. In January, when CIBC World Markets initiated coverage, it termed Timminco "not your average silicon producer" and slapped a $25 target on the company -or about 24 times the book value of $1.05 a share (It now has a $30 target.)

But others are taking a more cautious "show me" stand.

National Bank Financial recently noted that Timminco, which has a new focus on upgraded metallurgical grade silicon, faces new competition. It left its target at $24.

And Cormark Securities is bearish. In a Jan. 7, 2008, report, it said that "based on its supply agreements, planned capacity and our outlook for weakening poly-Si prices, TIM's stock price is more than fully valued." It has a reduce on the stock with a $11 target Since then, Cormark has issued a second report in which it kept the reduce recommendation but raised its target to $19.50.

The company has also attracted the interest of the short-sellers. At the end of March, according to Bloomberg, 4.616 million shares were shorted, in the United States, up from 831,292 at the end of 2007. On the TSX, a total of 565,040 shares were shorted at the end of March -or more than 300,000 lower than at year end 2007.

Meanwhile, other potential investors continue to do their analysis. One of the country's sharpest, who requested anonymity, has not yet made up his mind. "These guys came out of nowhere, managed to find the holy grail that nobody else could possibly do with no research and development and hardly any capital expenditure. And there's has been no outside corroboration. I think they are heavily overstating the probability of success," he said.

Among the investor's concerns is whether Timminco can achieve its long term purity levels, which means producing silicon that has a very low percentage of phosphorous and boron . As well, the investor asks if can the company generate success once it gets fully operational and is producing 14,400 tonnes per year, up from 300 million tonnes at present. There's also a question of timing, with producers rushing to get supply because of tax incentives in Europe.

Finally, given that the solar grade patent is a key part behind Timminco's success, the investor wonders why there was a six-month gap between the filing of the patent and the announcement. On March 15, 2007, one day after it took a $33.2-million writedown on its magnesium operations, Timminco announced its first commercial contract for the sale of high purity silicon and said it "has a patent-pending process which enables it to produce high purity (a level of 99.999% purity) or solar grade silicon." The next day, on large volume, the stock jumped 33% to 64 cents.

So what does Timminco say?

Robert Dietrich, chief financial officer, said the company "is a substantial player in silicon," supplying about 3% of the world's market. And the growth in the solar market, the "new" cell manaufacturers requires raw material. "An opportunity existed for new entrants into the market and the (four) new entrants are all silicon companies," he said, noting the four that are purifying silicon using metallurgical processes are using different technologies.

The company started developing its technology in 2005 back when a customer made a request to produce very high quality upgraded silicon. In 2006, it did further experimentation off site, set up a pilot plant, and sent samples to prospective customers. "It's not an overnight success story. We used methodology employed in other metals and adapted it to silicon."

As for what this methodology is, Dietrich confirmed speculation that no analyst has seen the production process. "It's a trade secret." he said, noting only the company's employees and its engineering consultants have seen it in action
Nicht ungewöhnlich, dass jetzt auch Zweifel aufkommen. Es ist eben einfach so, dass Timminco jetzt wirklich viel angekündigt hat und jetzt müssen sie erstmal liefern.

Mitte Mai kommen ja dann die Zahlen zum Q1 - die werden sehr interessant werden.

Wenn man mal anschaut, wie die drei 1.200-Tonnen-Linien in die Produktion gegangen sind, komme ich für das erste Q auf eine Nominalkapazität von ungefähr 600 Tonnen (300 + 200 + 100).

Wenn Timminco damit weniger als 300 Tonnen produziert hat, wäre das eine Enttäuschung.

Hoffen wir mal, dass sie ihren Output offen kommunizieren.

300 Tonnen wären nach den hier aufgestellten Hypothesen für 11 Mio. Dollar Umsatz und 5 Mio. Dollar Gewinn gut. Zumindest Break Even ist insofern Pflicht. ;)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.934.057 von meinolf67 am 21.04.08 17:00:30 TORONTO (Reuters) - Shares of specialty metals producer Timminco Ltd tumbled Monday after a report in the financial magazine Barron's questioned the company's plan for purifying silicon for solar cells.

Meanwhile, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported that Wall Street investor Manuel Asensio, who has a reputation for bringing down companies, has challenged Timminco's assertion that it can purify metallurgical grade silicon in a very cost-efficient way.

Timminco stock fell much as 10 percent in early trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but recovered to C$22.27, still down 3 percent, or 68 Canadian cents. The stock fell more than 12 percent Friday.

The company was one of the best performers on the Toronto market in 2007, soaring from a price of less than C$1 to more than C$22 in the year as it racked up commercial contracts and the price of silicon soared.

The Toronto-based company has said it can purify metallurgical grade silicon at about half of what it costs its competitors.

In December, it began production at its solar silicon unit in Becancour, Quebec. Germany's Q-Cells AG, the world's largest solar cell maker, signed a supply contract with Timminco subsidiary Becancour Silicon Inc last month.

But on Sunday, Barron's said Timminco's shares were "far ahead of reality," noting the concentrated stock ownership makes valuing the stock problematic. Insiders and stakeholders own about 55 percent of the company, according to Reuters Data.

Timminco's sales fell and its operating losses rose last year, the magazine said, adding: "the stock is far ahead of reality and vulnerable if solar silicon disappoints."

By next year, Timminco expects to produce 14,400 tonnes of solar-grade silicon annually.

Company officials were not immediately available for commment.

($1=$1.01 Canadian) (Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Peter Galloway)
Copyright 2008 Reuters
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.935.600 von MontPelerin am 21.04.08 19:41:24Ach Gott, Asensio! Die "älteren" Börsenhasen werden sich erinnern. Der hat damals den Schwindel bei Turbodyne entlarvt als gewisse "Analysten" den Laden noch immer hochgejubelt haben :)

Rette sich wer kann! :D
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.935.623 von daxschaefchen am 21.04.08 19:44:43
Ah ja, genau! Das waren doch die NM-Zeiten. Irgendwie sagte mir der Name was, aber ich wusste nicht mehr, wo ich ihn hinstecken muss. Turbodyne... Mein Gott, was waren das für verrückte Zeiten. Man könnte in Plauderstimmung kommen und sentimental werden. ;)


Timmico wehrt sich jetzt aber gegen die Berichte und sie haben einen starken Zeugen - etwas, das Turbodyne nie haben konnte:


When asked about the criticisms on Monday, Timminco Chief Financial Officer Robert Dietrich said: "It's extremely difficult to punch air."

"We have the equipment, it's running, we're producing metal and shipping it to seven different customers -- and they're reporting that the product meets their specifications," he said in an interview.

Timminco has applied for a patent of its technology, in which inexpensive equipment is used to produce solar-grade silicon, the CFO said. The company's competitors typically use costlier chemical processes.

"The lower capital costs are a function of the equipment required," he said.

The company was one of the best performers on the Toronto market in 2007, soaring from 30 Canadian cents a share to more than C$22 in the year as it racked up commercial contracts and the price of silicon soared.

The Toronto-based company has said it can purify metallurgical grade silicon at about half of what it costs its competitors. Last year, it shipped 89 tonnes of solar grade silicon to customers.

In December, it began production at its solar silicon unit in Becancour, Quebec. Germany's Q-Cells AG, the world's largest solar cell maker, signed a supply contract with Timminco subsidiary Becancour Silicon Inc last month.

"We have already received the first deliveries from our contract. So far, we don't see any reason for concern," a Q-Cells spokesman said Monday. "We have tested the material beforehand and it led to the desired results."


Dennoch bleiben die Fragen, nach den letztlich möglichen Mengen und Qualitäten und auch nach der Bewertung der Aktie.
TORONTO, April 22, 2008 – Timminco Limited (“Timminco”) (TSX:TIM) today provided an update with respect to the production and shipment of solar grade silicon through its wholly-owned subsidiary Becancour Silicon Inc. (“BSI”). BSI has been a leader in the production of silicon metal for more than 30 years.
During 2007, BSI shipped 89 metric tons (“mt”) of solar grade silicon metal to customers and concluded four long-term contracts for the production and shipment of up to 6,000 mt annually, commencing in 2009.
During the first quarter of 2008, BSI completed the commissioning of its 3,600 mt solar grade plant with the second and third of three 1,200 mt lines starting on February 2 and 28 respectively. During this ramp-up period in the first quarter, BSI produced and shipped 100 mt of solar grade silicon an average selling price in excess of $60 per kilogram. :eek: Each shipment was tested by an independent laboratory and met specifications set by customers.
Based on its own analysis and the acceptance of its product by leading companies in the solar industry, Timminco announced the expansion of BSI’s solar grade silicon capacity to 14,400 mt per year, with the incremental capacity on stream by the end of the second quarter of 2009. Since this announcement on February 22, Timminco has placed orders for the critical production equipment and will begin construction of the new facility in the second quarter of 2008 as originally planned. At the same time, the ramp-up of operations at the existing facility is proceeding in line with expectations to achieve the targeted production rate by the beginning of the third quarter 2008. Timminco’s cumulative capital expenditures for the existing and new facilities are expected to be in excess of $90 million.
On March 26, 2008, BSI announced the signing of an agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Q-Cells AG (“Q-Cells”), the world’s largest manufacturer of solar cells. Q-Cells has recognized Timminco as “one of the world’s leading specialists in specialty and light metals,” and has stated that “in extensive tests, Q-Cells has achieved very good results in manufacturing cells.” Shipments to Q-Cells were included in the 100 mt of solar grade silicon shipped in the first quarter.
BSI’s process is the subject of two patents pending for manufacturing processes. During 2007, the company filed a formal patent application with the U.S. and international patent authorities in respect of one of its processes for purifying low-grade silicon metal. The company has a 2006 priority date in respect of this patent application. The international patent examiner has provided a positive report on such application. The company filed a second patent application in 2008 in respect of another process for purifying low-grade silicon metal.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.946.477 von MontPelerin am 22.04.08 21:06:00
Allerdings sind 100 Tonnen nicht so toll. Allein im März war eine Nominalkapazität von 300 Tonnen online - ramp up hin oder her, viel mehr als 16% haben sie aus ihrer Nominalkapazität (noch) nicht rausholen können.

Trotzdem, die Richtung scheint weiter zu stimmen und für unter 15 Dollar werde ich vielleicht schwach. ;)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.946.542 von MontPelerin am 22.04.08 21:12:07

hi, MontPelerin,

und? die 15 $ waren möglich...

gasadi
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.954.441 von gasadi am 23.04.08 18:01:58
Hab ich verpasst. Bin aber auch nach wie vor sehr unsicher. Wenn überhaupt, wird es nur eine ganz kleine Position, falls der Kurs weiter fällt.
Timminco Provides Update on Stock Trading Activity
Wednesday April 23, 1:03 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - April 23, 2008) - At the request of Market Surveillance on behalf of the Toronto Stock Exchange, Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM - News) announces that, other than matters discussed in its news release issued yesterday, it is not aware of any corporate developments to account for the recent trading activity in Timminco's stock.
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - April 28, 2008) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM) announced today it will host a conference call on Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 5:00 pm ET to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008. Timminco will report its first quarter financial results via news release on Thursday, May 8, at approximately 4:30 pm ET.
Timminco dabeibleiben
Endingen (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" empfehlen bei der Aktie von Timminco (ISIN CA8874041012/ WKN 871433) dabeizubleiben. Die jüngste Kursschwäche, die auf einen negativen Zeitungsbericht zurückzuführen sei,
Börsenticker aus Endingen (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" empfehlen bei der Aktie von Timminco (ISIN CA8874041012/ WKN 871433) dabeizubleiben.

Die jüngste Kursschwäche, die auf einen negativen Zeitungsbericht zurückzuführen sei, könnte eine ausgezeichnete Einstiegsgelegenheit sein. Die in dem Artikel infrage gestellte Möglichkeit des Unternehmens, solarfähiges Silizium auf einem kostengünstigen Weg herstellen zu können, habe das Unternehmen nochmals ausdrücklich bestätigt. So seien bisher sieben unterschiedliche Kunden beliefert worden, die alle nichts zu beanstanden gehabt hätten.

Die Experten von "Hot Stocks Investor" empfehlen Anlegern, ihre Position in Timminco-Aktien abzusichern und dabeizubleiben.
(Ausgabe 08 vom 28.04.2008)
(28.04.2008/ac/a/a).
Sie lesen Finanznachrichten und Wirtschaftsmeldungen auf ad-hoc-news.de, ein Presseportal der trading-house.net AG. Weitere Börsennachrichten finden Sie unter www.ad-hoc-news.de & http://www.trading-house.net.
der langzeit-chart sieht ja lustig aus. wenn der ne aussagekraft hätte und das spielchen so weiter gespielt wird, dann war ja der absturz absolut notwendig. genauso würden wir aber dann in nächster zeit wieder das nächste ATH sehen....:D
Hop oder Top?

Am Donnerstag werde Zahlen für 1. Quartal veröffentlicht.
In den letzten Wochen ist der Wert extrem unter Druck geraten, da es viele Short Positionen gab.
Ich habe den Eindruck, dass viele Shorter nun Angst bekommen, dass die Zahlen doch ganz gut aussehen könnten.
Immerhin ist von den Zahlen noch nichts durchgesickert, keiner der (6?)Silizium-Abnehmer hat sich bisher über die Qualität beklagt. Q-Cells als wichtigster Abnehmer hat Timminco sogar den Rücken gestärkt und ausdrücklich die Qualität gelobt.
Sollte sogar die prognostizierte Menge für Q1 erreicht worden sein, dann wird der Kurs nicht nur alte Höhen erreichen, sondern noch weit darüber notieren.
Ich könnte mir vorstellen, dass sich viel Shorter morgen und übermorgen früh noch mit Aktien eindecken werden, da sie Angst haben richtig viel draufzahlen zu müssen. Also gehe ich von einem weiteren Kursanstieg bis ca. CAD 25 aus.
Dann kommts wirklich auf die Zahlen an. Gute Zahlen, dann gehts erstmal Richtung CAD 40. Schlechte Zahlen lassen das Kartenhaus zusammenbrechen und es geht Richtung CAD 9, es sei denn, es gibt wieder BAckup von Q-Cells, dann "nur" wieder bis CAD 15.

Lassen wir uns überraschen...
:cool: von den Zahlen habe ich noch nichts gesehen, aber:

News Release
STOCK SYMBOL: TIM
(The Toronto Stock Exchange)
Sedar Filer Profile #00000838
TIMMINCO ANNOUNCES SOLAR SILICON OPERATIONAL REVIEW BY PHOTON CONSULTING
TORONTO, May 8, 2008 - Timminco Limited (“Timminco”; TSX: TIM) today announced that it has received an operational review report from PHOTON Consulting on its solar grade silicon business located at Bécancour, Québec, based on a one-day facility visit by a PHOTON Consulting team in early May, 2008. Timminco commissioned the report to support due diligence efforts for strategic discussions beyond normal supplier-customer relationships that are ongoing with potential partners. The PHOTON Consulting team was given full access to the solar grade silicon production facility and to information relating to accounting procedures, R&D efforts, human resource needs, intellectual property and technical processes that they requested to prepare their report.
“Operations and processes have potential for massive growth and, possibly, for reshaping the silicon industry”, declared Michael Rogol Managing Director of PHOTON Consulting. “The equipment is very impressive, very low-cost, beyond poly-scale. In interviews, several customers have reported cell efficiencies above 14% and some above 15% utilizing 100% (unblended) solar grade silicon from Bécancour.”
A conference call with Michael Rogol of PHOTON Consulting will take place on Wednesday May 14,2008 to discuss the conclusions of the report. An executive summary of the report will be made available on Timminco’s website at www.timminco.com prior to the conference call. Details of the conference call will be released under a separate release.



gasadi :rolleyes:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.058.485 von gasadi am 08.05.08 18:37:36Was für ein Durcheinander bei dem Kurs....

Bin jetzt mal auf die Zahlen heute Abend gespannt...
May 08, 2008 16:30 ET
Timminco Reports First Quarter 2008 Results
Quarter highlighted by long-term contract with world's largest manufacturer of solar cells and steady ramp up of solar grade silicon production and shipments

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 8, 2008) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM) today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008.

Highlights of the First Quarter

- Sales of $47.6 million, representing a growth of 11.2% from $42.8 million in the first quarter of 2007.

- Net loss of $0.6 million compared to a net loss of $3.1 million in the first quarter of 2007.

- Completed the commissioning of a solar grade silicon production facility with nominal annual production output of 3,600 metric tons.

- Announced the expansion of solar grade silicon nominal capacity to 14,400 metric tons of annual output based on market demand and customer acceptance of product.

- Shipped 100 metric tons of solar grade silicon at an average selling price in excess of $60 per kilogram.

- Signed an agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Q-Cells AG, the world's largest manufacturer of solar cells.

Highlights Subsequent to Quarter End

- Appointed John Fenger to assume leadership of the Magnesium Group.

- Received a EUR 5 million deposit under a long term contract from a major customer for delivery of solar grade silicon.

- Received positive report by PHOTON Consulting on operational review of solar grade silicon business in Becancour.

- Signed second agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Solar Power Industries, Inc.

Overview

"Following the completion of the commissioning of our 3,600 metric ton solar grade silicon facility in the first quarter, the ramp up of production is progressing in line with our expectations, with output and shipments to our customers steadily increasing each month," said Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Timminco. "During the first quarter, we met our internal shipment target of 100 metric tons of solar grade silicon, all of which was tested by an independent laboratory and met the specifications set by our customers. Moreover, feedback from our customers has been positive. With production output for our existing facility sold out through 2008, we expect the continued ramp up in production to have an increasing positive impact in our financial results with each successive quarter. We will report on the progress of our ramp up when we report our second quarter results. While we anticipate that the cost of our solar grade silicon production will fluctuate as we make refinements to our facilities, we are comfortable with current levels and continue to expect to achieve an average variable cost in the range of $10 to $15 per kilogram at long-term nominal production levels."

Timminco has two reporting segments: the Silicon Group, which includes silicon metal and solar grade silicon products, and the Magnesium Group, which includes magnesium extruded and fabricated products. Timminco also has a minority investment in Fundo Wheels AS, an aluminum wheels business based in Norway.

Results for the First Quarter

Sales for the first quarter of 2008 were $47.6 million, an increase of 11.2% from $42.8 million the first quarter of 2007. The increase is attributable to growth in the sales volume of Timminco's solar grade silicon and regular grade silicon metal.

The net loss was $0.6 million or $0.01 per share, compared with a net loss of $3.1 million, or $0.04 per share, in the first quarter of 2007.

Cash and short-term investments as at March 31, 2008 were $11.3 million compared to $34.6 million at the end of 2007. During the quarter, $6.2 million was invested in working capital to support the 31% increase in sales volumes over the fourth quarter of 2007, $16.5 million was spent on capital expenditures relating primarily to the solar grade silicon facilities and $1.9 million was invested in Fundo Wheels to support the turnaround of that business.

Silicon Group

Sales of the Silicon Group were $34.7 million in the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 45.2% from $23.9 million of first quarter of 2007. The increase in sales was due to the growth in sales of solar grade silicon and an increase in sales volume of regular grade silicon metal.

Gross profit for the first quarter of 2008 was $4.2 million or 12.2% of sales compared with the gross margin of $1.7 million or 6.9% of sales in the first quarter of 2007. The growth was primarily due to the increase in sales of solar grade silicon. During the quarter $2.1 million of start up costs were incurred and expensed as cost of sales.

Amortization of capital assets in the first quarter of 2008 was $1.3 million compared with $0.6 million in the first quarter of 2007. The increase was attributable to the new solar grade silicon facility now in use.

Magnesium Group

Sales of the Magnesium Group were $12.8 million in the first quarter of 2008, representing a decrease of 31.9% from the $18.8 million generated in the first quarter of 2007. The decrease is a result of unusually high sales volumes in the first quarter of 2007, unfavourable foreign exchange rate moves and increased competition.

Gross profit for the first quarter was $1.2 million or 9.6% of sales. This compares to $1.1 million or 5.6% of sales in the first quarter of 2007. Although overhead expenses were decreased by $0.8 million, these were offset by higher costs for magnesium feedstock and increased competition in principal markets.




Financial Highlights


in thousands of Canadian dollars,
except for loss per common share
-------------------
Three Months Ended
(unaudited)
-------------------
March 31, March 31,
2008 2007
-------------------
Sales $47, 557 $42,786


Gross profit 5,701 3,047


Gross profit percentage 12.0% 7.1%


Net loss (556) (3,119)


Loss per common share, basic and
diluted (0.01) (0.04)
Working capital (excluding
available cash items) 33,029 12,594
Total assets 185,674 102,647
Cash and marketable securities 11,338 201
Bank debt 11 23,115
Total long term liabilities 25,057 22,838
Weighted average number of
common shares outstanding, basic
and diluted 103,999 75,133





Timminco will file its consolidated financial statements for the quarter ended March 31, 2008, and related management's discussion and analysis (MD&A) with securities regulatory authorities within the applicable timelines. Such financial statements, MD&A and related documents will be available through SEDAR at www.sedar.com as well as through Timminco's website at www.timminco.com.

About Timminco

Timminco is a leader in the production and marketing of lightweight materials, specializing in solar grade silicon for high growth solar photovoltaic energy industry. Using its proprietary technology, Timminco processes metallurgical grade silicon into low cost solar grade silicon for use in the manufacture of solar cells. Timminco also produces silicon metal and specialty ferrosilicon and alloy magnesium for use in a broad range of industrial applications serving the aluminum, chemical, pharmaceutical, electronics and automotive industries.
neuer Kunde mit Namen:


05/08/2008
AMG Subsidiary Announces Second Solar Grade Silicon Supply Agreement With Solar Power Industries, Inc.
Amsterdam, 8 May 2008 --- AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. ("AMG", EURONEXT AMSTERDAM: "AMG") announced that its 50.5% subsidiary Timminco Limited (TSX: TIM), has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bécancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), has signed a second agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Solar Power Industries, Inc. In its press release, Timminco stated:

Bécancour Silicon Inc. ("BSI"), has signed a second agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Solar Power Industries, Inc. ("SPI") based in Belle Vernon near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. SPI was BSI's first long-term solar grade silicon customer, having entered into its initial supply agreement with BSI in March 2007. SPI was BSI's largest customer in 2007.

The initial supply agreement anticipates shipments of solar grade silicon in excess of 4,000 metric tons over its initial period of 5 years. Under this second supply agreement, SPI has committed to purchase an additional 3,000 metric tons per year from 2010 to 2015.

"We are very happy to have SPI as a strategic partner in the development of our solar silicon business and this second contract with SPI further corroborates the value proposition we bring to our customers." said Mr. René Boisvert, President and CEO of BSI. "SPI has had extensive experience with our solar grade silicon, having shipped their products using our material for over one year."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.060.640 von meinolf67 am 08.05.08 23:13:42
Na ja... Ich weiß nicht. Da fehlen noch ganz viele interessante Zahlen.

Überraschend ist zunächst der hohe Verkaufspreis von über 60 Dollar pro Kilo.

Interessant ist folgender Satz:

expect to achieve an average variable cost in the range of $10 to $15 per kilogram at long-term nominal production levels

Das heißt, dass sie dieses Kostenniveau noch nicht realisieren können (was bei den noch kleinen Produktionsmengen kein Vorwurf ist).

Aber wie hoch sind ihre derzeitigen Kosten?

Wenn wir einen Kiloverkaufspreis von 65 Dollar unterstellen und zusätzlich unterstellen, dass die Rohertragsmarge im klassischen Si-Geschäft zu Q1 / 2007 unverändert geblieben ist, dann kann man sich eine Rohertargsmarge im UMG-Si-Bereich von ca. 34% zusammenrechnen.

Anders gesagt lägen nur die direkten Produktionskosten fürs UMG-Si derzeit bei 40 bis 45 Dollar pro Kilo.

Wie gesagt, das sollte man jetzt nicht für eine Langfristprognose zu Grunde legen, denn erstens wird das im Laufe der Zeit sicher weniger werden und vor allem kennen wir die wirkliche Marge des normalen Si-Geschäfts im Q1 nicht. Die kann sich ja im Vergleich zu Q1/2007 verschlechtert haben.

Als vorläufiges Fazit würde ich festhalten:

- Der Prozess ist angelaufen
- Produktionsmengen sind noch sehr(!) gering
- Erlöse deutlich höher als ursprünglich angenommen
- Kosten zur Zeit wahrscheinlich auch deutlich höher als ursprünglich angenommen

Bin nach wie vor nur Beobachter.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.062.773 von MontPelerin am 09.05.08 10:42:29Über die Margen im normalen Si-Geschäft verglichen mit 2007 kann ich nur sagen, dass es einen rasanten Preisanstieg bei Si-Metall gegeben hat. Während Anfang 2007 die Tonne noch je nach Qualität im Bereich von 1450 € gehandelt wurde, werden jetzt teilweise deutlich über 2000 € bezahlt.
Allerdings sind auch die Rohstoffpreise (insbesondere Kohle und Strom) im teilweise 30%-Maßstab gestiegen. Dennoch reiben sich die Si-Produzenten trotzt schwierigem Energieumfeld die Hände.

Außerdem machen sich erstmals auch Effekte des Rückgangs der produzierten Mengen aufgrund der Herstellung von UMG-Metall bemerkbar.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.063.697 von capgap am 09.05.08 12:06:47Wärst Du bereit zu sagen, wo man solche Infos finden kann?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.063.749 von meinolf67 am 09.05.08 12:11:35zum Beispiel, indem man sich intensiv mit der Branche beschäftigt oder aber auch bei der Solarkonferenz in München Anfang April gut aufpasst bzw. mit den richtigen Leuten spricht.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.064.004 von capgap am 09.05.08 12:39:17;)

keine zugänglichen Quellen?
Timminco Ltd. (TIM/TSX) seesawed its way to a 5% gain yesterday as the solar-grade silicon maker disclosed glowing results from an operational review of its solar grade silicon business followed by news of a new contract.

Timminco shares were halted at midday, then spiked up 11% on resumption of trading, thanks to a report from PHOTON, an independent consulting firm, which was commissioned by Timminco to support due diligence efforts by the company "for strategic discussions beyond normal supplier-customer relationships that are ongoing with potential partners."

Timminco stock has come under fire in recent weeks, following a Barron's report that questioned the technology behind its production process.

During a one-day facility visit, PHOTON was given full access to Timmico's solar grade silicon production facility in Becancour, Que.

"Operations and processes have potential for massive growth and, possibly, for reshaping the silicon industry," PHOTON managing director Michael Rogol said in a statement. "The equipment is very impressive, very low-cost, beyond poly-scale." He added that "in interviews, several customers have reported cell efficiencies above 14% and some above 15% utilizing 100% (unblended) solar grade silicon from Becancour."


Within the hour of the report's release, shares began to fall, dropping into negative territory. But the retreat proved temporary and soon the stock was back in the black.

The final push came just after 3 p. m. ET, when Timminco announced it has signed a second agreement to supply solar grade silicon to Solar Power Industries Inc., based near Pittsburgh, Penn.

The company said the initial supply agreement anticipated shipments of solar grade silicon in excess of 4,000 metric tonnes over its initial period of five years.

Under this second supply agreement, Solar Power has committed to purchase an additional 3,000 metric tonnes per year from 2010 to 2015. When the dust settled, Timminco shares were up $1.15, to $24.85 at market close, with more than nine million shares trading hands.

Yesterday's rollercoaster ride is nothing new for Timminco these past few weeks, given ongoing questions about its production process and its starring role in the Sprott Asset Management initial public offering, expected to be priced any day now in the $10 range.

During the road show to promote the IPO, Eric Sprott has repeatedly mentioned Timminco as being one of his largest holdings.

After the markets closed, Timminco released results for the first quarter ended March 31 which showed the company earned a loss of $600,000, compared to $3.1-million the same quarter last year, while sales had grown 11.2%, to $47.6-million.

Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, Timminco's chairman and CEO, said in a statement that the company met its internal shipment target of 100 metric tonnes of solar grade silicon in the first quarter, "all of which was tested by an independent laboratory and met the specifications set by our customers."

With production output for our existing facility sold out through 2008, Dr. Schimmelbusch said the company expects "the continued ramp up in production to have an increasing positive impact in our financial results with each successive quarter."

dpett@nationalpost.com
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.064.269 von MontPelerin am 09.05.08 13:05:04siehe #126
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.064.356 von meinolf67 am 09.05.08 13:13:39Timminco Berichte ersten Quartal 2008 Ergebnisse
Quartal durch langfristige Verträge mit weltweit größte Hersteller von Solarzellen und regelmässiges Rampe von Solar-Silicium Produktion und Versand
Timminco Limited ( "Timminco") (TSX: TIM) hat heute angekündigt, seine finanziellen Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal zum 31. März 2008.

Highlights des ersten Quartals

-- Der Umsatz von $ 47,6 Millionen, was einem Wachstum von 11,2% von $ 42,8 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2007.

-- Nettoverlust von $ 0,6 Millionen verglichen mit einem Nettoverlust von $ 3,1 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2007.

-- Abschluss der Inbetriebnahme eines Solar-Silicium Produktionsstätte mit nominal jährlichen Produktion von 3600 Tonnen.

-- Kündigte die Ausweitung der Solar-Silicium Nennkapazität auf 14400 Tonnen Jahresproduktion auf Nachfrage am Markt und Kunden Akzeptanz des Produkts.

-- Versandt 100 Tonnen Solar-Silizium-Klasse zu einem durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreis von mehr als $ 60 pro kg.

-- Unterzeichnung einer Vereinbarung zur Versorgung solar grade Silizium auf Q-Cells AG, dem weltweit größten Hersteller von Solarzellen.

Highlights im Anschluss an Quartal Ende

-- Bestellt John Fenger, davon auszugehen, Führung der Magnesium-Gruppe.

-- Erhielt einen 5 Mio. EUR unter Hinterlegung einer langfristigen Vertrag aus ein wichtiger Kunde für die Lieferung von Solar-Silicium.

-- Received positiven Bericht von PHOTON Consulting für operative Überprüfung der Solar-Silicium des Geschäfts in Becancour.

-- Unterzeichnet zweite Vereinbarung zu liefern Solar-Silicium zu Solar Power Industries, Inc.

Überblick

"Nach Abschluss der Inbetriebnahme unserer 3600-Tonnen-Solar-Silicium-Anlage im ersten Quartal, die Auffahrt von der Produktion schreitet im Einklang mit unseren Erwartungen, mit Produktion und Versand zu unseren Kunden stetig steigenden jeden Monat", sagte Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, Vorsitzender des Verwaltungsrates und Chief Executive Officer von Timminco. "Während des ersten Quartals, wir haben unser Ziel internen Versand von 100 Tonnen Solar-Silizium-Klasse, die alle getestet wurde von einem unabhängigen Labor und erfüllt die Spezifikationen, die von unseren Kunden. Darüber hinaus ist das Feedback unserer Kunden war positiv. Mit Produktion für unsere bestehenden Anlage ausverkauft bis 2008 erwarten wir weiterhin die Rampe bis in der Produktion zu einer Erhöhung der positiven Auswirkungen auf unsere finanziellen Ergebnisse mit zwei aufeinander folgenden Quartal. Wir berichten über die Fortschritte unserer Auffahrt auf, wenn wir unseren Bericht zweiten Quartal Ergebnisse. Während wir gehen davon aus, dass die Kosten unseres Sonnensystems grade Silizium-Produktion wird schwanken wie wir machen Verfeinerungen auf unserer Anlage, wir sind bequem mit dem derzeitigen Niveau und weiterhin zu erwarten, erreichen einen durchschnittlichen variablen Kosten im Bereich von $ 10 bis $ 15 pro kg im langfristigen nominalen Produktion Ebenen. "

Timminco Berichterstattung hat zwei Segmente: das Silicon-Fraktion, der auch Silizium-Metall-und Solar-Silicium-Produkte, und die Magnesium-Fraktion, die auch Magnesium gefertigt und extrudierten Produkten. Timminco hat auch eine Minderheit von Investitionen in Fundo Wheels AS, ein Aluminium-Räder mit Sitz in Norwegen.

Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal

Der Umsatz für das erste Quartal 2008 wurden $ 47,6 Mio., ein Anstieg von 11,2% von $ 42,8 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2007. Der Anstieg ist zurückzuführen auf das Wachstum in der Verkaufsmenge des Timminco's Solar-Silicium und regelmäßige Silicium-Metall.

Der Nettoverlust wurde $ 0,6 Millionen oder $ 0,01 pro Aktie, verglichen mit einem Nettoverlust von $ 3,1 Millionen oder $ 0,04 pro Aktie im ersten Quartal 2007.

Flüssige Mittel und kurzfristige Kapitalanlagen zum 31. März 2008 wurden $ 11,3 Mio. im Vergleich zu $ 34,6 Millionen am Ende des Jahres 2007. Während des Quartals, $ 6,2 Mio. Die Investitionen in Working Capital zur Unterstützung der 31% ige Erhöhung der Absatzmengen gegenüber dem vierten Quartal 2007 $ 16,5 Millionen für Investitionen vor allem in Bezug auf die Solar-Silicium Einrichtungen und $ 1,9 Millionen investiert wurden in Fundo Wheels zur Unterstützung der Turnaround des Unternehmens.

Silicon-Fraktion

Der Umsatz der Silicon-Gruppe wurden $ 34,7 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2008, was einer Zunahme um 45,2% von $ 23,9 Mio. ersten Quartal 2007. Die Umsatzsteigerung war auf das Wachstum bei Verkäufen von Solar-Silicium und einen Anstieg des Verkaufsvolumens der regelmäßigen Silicium-Metall.

Das Bruttoergebnis für das erste Quartal 2008 war $ 4,2 Mio. oder 12,2% des Umsatzes, verglichen mit der Brutto-Marge von $ 1,7 Millionen oder 6,9% des Umsatzes im ersten Quartal 2007. Das Wachstum wurde vor allem durch die Zunahme bei den Verkäufen von Solar-Silicium. Während des Quartals $ 2,1 Millionen von Start-up Kosten anfielen und erfasst Umsatzkostenverfahren.

Amortisation von Kapitalvermögen im ersten Quartal 2008 war $ 1,3 Mio. verglichen mit $ 0,6 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2007. Der Anstieg ist darauf zurückzuführen, dass neue Solar-Silicium-Anlage jetzt im Einsatz.

Magnesium-Gruppe

Der Umsatz der Magnesium-Gruppe wurden $ 12,8 Millionen im ersten Quartal 2008, was einem Rückgang von 31,9% aus dem $ 18,8 Mio. generierte im ersten Quartal 2007. Der Rückgang ist eine Folge der ungewöhnlich hohen Verkaufsmengen im ersten Quartal 2007, ungünstige Wechselkurs bewegt und dem zunehmenden Wettbewerb.

Das Bruttoergebnis für das erste Quartal war $ 1,2 Mio. oder 9,6% des Umsatzes. Im Vergleich zu $ 1,1 Mio. oder 5,6% des Umsatzes im ersten Quartal 2007. Obwohl die Overhead-Kosten waren um $ 0,8 Millionen, wurden diese durch höhere Kosten für den Rohstoff Magnesium und dem zunehmenden Wettbewerb im wichtigsten Märkte.


Financial Highlights

in Tausend kanadischen Dollar,
außer für den Verlust je Aktie
-------------------
Drei Monate beendet
(ungeprüft)
-------------------
31. März 31. März
2008 2007
-------------------
Der Umsatz $ 47, 557 $ 42786

Das Bruttoergebnis 5701 3047

Bruttogewinn Anteil 12,0% 7,1%

Der Nettoverlust (556) (3119)

Das Ergebnis je Aktie, unverwässert und
verwässert (0,01) (0,04)
Working Capital (ohne
verfügbare Cash-Positionen) 33029 12594
Bilanzsumme 185674 102647
Flüssige Mittel und marktgängige Wertpapiere 11338 201
Bankverbindlichkeiten 11 23115
Total langfristige Verbindlichkeiten 25057 22838
Gewichtete durchschnittliche Anzahl der
ausstehender Aktien, unverwässert
und verwässert 103999 75133


Timminco Datei wird über ihre konsolidierten Abschlüsse für das Quartal zum 31. März 2008, und die damit verbundenen Managements Diskussion und Analyse (MD & A) mit Wertpapieren Regulierungsbehörden innerhalb der geltenden Fristen. Solche Abschlüsse, MD & A und die damit zusammenhängenden Dokumente zur Verfügung stehen wird durch SEDAR www.sedar.com auf sowie durch Timminco's Website unter www.timminco.com.

Über Timminco

Timminco ist führend in der Herstellung und Vermarktung von leichten Materialien, spezialisiert auf Solar-Silicium für hohe Wachstum der Photovoltaik-Industrie. Mithilfe seiner proprietären Technologie, Timminco metallurgische Prozesse grade Silizium in Low-Cost Solar-Silicium für die Verwendung bei der Herstellung von Solarzellen. Timminco produziert auch Silicium-Metall-und Spezialchemikalien Ferrosilizium und Magnesium-Legierung für den Einsatz in einem breiten Spektrum von industriellen Anwendungen dient der Aluminium-, Chemie-, Pharma-, Elektronik-und Automobilindustrie.

Cautionary Hinweis: Auf die Zukunft gerichtete Aussagen, Informationen

Diese Presseinformation enthält bestimmte "vorausschauende Aussagen", gemäß der Definition dieses Begriffs in den geltenden kanadischen Rechtsvorschriften im Wertpapierbereich, über die Zukunft Timminco finanzielle oder operative Leistung und andere Aussagen zum Ausdruck bringen, dass die Erwartungen des Managements oder Schätzungen über künftige Entwicklungen, Ergebnisse oder Umstände. Generell, zukunftsgerichtete Informationen können identifiziert werden durch den Einsatz von zukunftsgerichtete Begriffe wie "erwartet", "glauben", "anticipates", "Haushalt", "geplant", "schätzt", "Prognosen", "beabsichtigt" , "Pläne" sowie Variationen solcher Begriffe und Phrasen, oder durch Aussagen, dass bestimmte Aktionen, Ereignisse oder Ergebnisse "Mai", "werden", "könnte", "würde" oder "könnte" "getroffen werden", "auftreten" oder "erreicht werden". In dieser Pressemitteilung wurde, solche Informationen enthält Aussagen zur Versorgung Verpflichtungen, künftige Produktionskapazität und den Zeitpunkt des geplanten neuen Einrichtungen und Produktionskosten für Timminco Solar grade Silizium. Zukunftsgerichtete Angaben beruhen auf einer Reihe von Annahmen und Schätzungen, dass zwar als angemessen durch das Management auf der Grundlage der Wirtschaft und Märkte, in denen Timminco betreibt, sind von Natur aus unterliegt erheblichen betrieblichen, wirtschaftlichen und wettbewerblichen Unsicherheiten und unvorhergesehene Ereignisse. Timminco weist darauf hin, dass die Zukunft gerichtete Aussagen, Informationen beinhaltet bekannte und unbekannte Risiken, Ungewissheiten und andere Faktoren können dazu führen, dass Timminco die tatsächlichen Ergebnisse, Leistungen oder Errungenschaften zu werden, erheblich abweichen von den Aussagen ausgedrückt oder impliziert werden, einschließlich, aber nicht beschränkt auf: begrenzte Geschichte mit die solare grade Silizium-Geschäft; Ausbau des Sonnensystems grade Silizium-Geschäft im Allgemeinen; Ausbau der Produktionskapazitäten in der Becancour Einrichtungen, Schutz der Rechte an geistigem Eigentum; Steigerung und Erhaltung der Reinheit des Sonnensystems Silicium; langfristige Verträge für die Bereitstellung von Solar-Silicium; verkaufen Preise für Solar-Silicium; Preisvolatilität für Silicium-Metall; Preise und Verfügbarkeit von Rohstoffen für die Silizium-Unternehmen; Abhängigkeit von Stromversorgung für Silicium-Metall Produktion; die Kosten der Solar-Silicium Produktion; Preisvolatilität für Magnesium-Metall; Magnesium Supply-Chain-Unterbrechungen ; Abhängigkeit von wichtigen Kunden von Magnesiumlegierungen stranggepressten Produkte, das verarbeitende Gewerbe Kostensenkung Initiativen; Finanzbedarf für Investitionen; Beschränkungen im Rahmen der bestehenden Kreditlinien; Devisenmanagement; Abhängigkeit von wichtigen Mitarbeitern und Führungskräften; Kunde Konzentration; Vollendung und Integration von potentiellen Akquisitionen, Partnerschaften oder Joint Ventures; Risiken mit ausländischen Operationen und Lieferanten, Umwelt-, Gesundheits-und Sicherheits-Gesetze und Verbindlichkeiten; Versagen; Transport Störungen; von Interessenkonflikten; Verletzungen geistigen Eigentums Forderungen, neue regulatorische Anforderungen, Arbeits-Streitigkeiten; und Veränderungen in der Steuergesetze.

Zu diesen Faktoren werden in ausführlicher in Timminco's Annual Information Form für das Geschäftsjahr zum 31. Dezember 2007, das ist verfügbar unter der SEDAR-Website unter www.sedar.com. Obwohl Timminco versucht hat, zu identifizieren wichtige Faktoren, könnten dazu führen, dass tatsächliche Ergebnisse, Leistungen oder Errungenschaften wesentlich von diesen Prognosen abweichen, die in die Zukunft gerichtete Aussagen, Informationen, kann es andere Faktoren, die dazu führen, dass Ergebnisse, Leistungen oder Errungenschaften nicht zu als erwartet, geschätzt oder . Es kann keine Garantie dafür, dass diese Informationen erweisen sich als richtig oder dass die Erwartungen des Managements oder Schätzungen über künftige Entwicklungen, Ergebnisse oder Umstände eintreten wird. Dementsprechend sollten die Leser nicht unangemessen auf zukunftsgerichtete Informationen. Die zukunftsgerichteten Informationen in dieser Pressemeldung erfolgt ab dem Datum dieser Pressemitteilung, und Timminco lehnt jede Absicht oder Verpflichtung zur Aktualisierung oder Überarbeitung solcherart dargebotener Informationen entstehen, es sei denn, rechtlich dazu nicht verpflichtet.

Kontakte:
Timminco Limited
Robert Dietrich
Executive Vice President - Finanzen und CFO
(416) 364-5171
(416) 364-3451 (FAX)
E-Mail: rdietrich@timminco.com
Website: www.timminco.com





Quelle: Marketwire (8. Mai 2008 - 4:30 PM EDT)

News per QuoteMedia
www.quotemedia.com
Raymond James analyst Andy Nasr increased his price target on Timminco Ltd. (TIMNF.PK) on Friday. This followed a news-heavy Thursday for the company that included first quarter earnings, a new contract and a positive operational review of it production facilities.

Mr. Nasr told clients in a note that he raised his target from C$15 to C$19 after "factoring in higher solar-grade silicon prices in 2008." Even so, he maintained his "underperform" rating on the stock in light of Timminco's current share price, which fell 7% or C$1.86 to C$22.99 in trading on Friday.

He wrote:

As stated in our recent initiation of coverage report, we remain concerned about execution risk and long-term silicon prices. We would become more constructive on our outlook if the company can control its throughput and production cost by year-end.

Mr. Nasr noted that Timminco's first quarter results, which included revenues of C$47-million and a loss of C$0.01 per share, were in-line with his estimates. He added that his shipment estimates remain unchanged following the company's new contract with Solar Power Industries to add an additional 3,000 metric tonnes of solar grade silicon from 2010 to 2015, didn

As for the operational review of its facility conducted by PHOTON Consulting that appears to vindicate concerns regarding the efficacy of Timminco's technology, Mr. Nasr decided to reserve comment until the full report is released on May 14.
Solar Power Industries places extra 3,000 metric ton order with Becancour Silicon
09 May 2008 - Materials - News
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TimmincoVertically integrated solar cell manufacturer Solar Power Industries has placed a second long-term order for solar grade silicon with Becancour Silicon, which sees the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania producer receive an additional 3,000 metric tons per year from 2010 to 2015. The initial supply agreement anticipated shipments of solar grade silicon in excess of 4,000 metric tons over its initial period of 5 years.

"We are very happy to have SPI as a strategic partner in the development of our solar silicon business and this second contract with SPI further corroborates the value proposition we bring to our customers." said Mr. Rene Boisvert, President and CEO of BSI. "SPI has had extensive experience with our solar grade silicon, having shipped their products using our material for over one year."

In separate news, Timminco, the majority owner of Becancour Silicon, is set to make available an executive summary of a report by PHOTON Consulting on Becancour’s breakthrough metallurgical solar grade silicon on Wednesday May 14, 2008 as well as a conference call to discuss the findings.
:cool:

In der "neue energie", die heute kam, gibt es einen großen Artikel über den Ausbau der Solarsiliziumproduktion aller nennenswerten Hersteller und anschließend ein Interview mit eike Weber, Leiter des Fraunhofer-Instituts für solare Energiesysteme mit dem Titel: "Wir brauchen schmutziges Silizium"...metallurgisches Silizium (ist) Schlüssel zur Überwindung des Rohstoffengpasses und zur Kostensenkung. In diesem Sinne ist das Interview gehalten. Sehr lesenswert - kann es leider nicht abschreiben...

gasadi :rolleyes:
May 13, 2008 13:27 ET
Timminco Schedules Conference Call to Discuss Operational Review Report by PHOTON Consulting on May 14
Conference call also to be webcast at www.timminco.com

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 13, 2008) - Timminco Limited ("Timminco") (TSX:TIM) announced today it will host a conference call on Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 4:30 pm ET to discuss the highlights of the operational review report completed by a team from PHOTON Consulting on Becancour Silicon Inc, Timminco's solar grade silicon business.

Michael Rogol, Managing Director of PHOTON Consulting will make a presentation and answer questions relating to the solar industry and BSI's position in the industry.

Mr. Rogol is a leading expert on solar energy and focuses on emerging trends in the sector. His recent work includes detailed reports on solar power based on a global review of several hundred solar power companies. Mr. Rogol's research on silicon use in the solar power sector has been included in numerous reports (e.g., Sun Screen, Sun Screen II, Solar Annual 2006, Solar Annual 2007, True Cost of Solar Power), at numerous conferences, (e.g., PHOTON's Solar Silicon Conferences) and in the "Silicon Space" column of PHOTON International magazine. Mr. Rogol's background in the energy sector includes more than a decade of experience working with large energy players while at McKinsey & Co, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Washington Policy & Analysis and MIT's Laboratory for Energy & Environment. Mr. Rogol holds a BS in Engineering Systems from MIT, an MBA from MIT, a BS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and was a Henry Luce East Asian Scholar in Korea.

Martin Meyers of PHOTON Consulting, will also participate. Mr. Meyers has nearly 30 years experience in the energy industry, including 18 years with Royal Dutch/Shell and nearly a decade at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), where he was a Director of Research. His experience includes plant design, operations, technical support and optimization. Martin holds an MBA from Concordia University and a B.A.Sc. (Chemical Engineering) from Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario.

To access the conference call by telephone, dial 416-644-3433 or 1-800-814-4890. Please connect approximately 15 minutes prior to the beginning of the call to ensure participation. The conference call will be archived for replay until Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at midnight. To access the archived conference call, dial 416-640-1917 or 1-877-289-8525 and enter the reservation number 21271874#

A live audio webcast of the conference call will be also available at www.timminco.com. Please connect at least 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be required to join the webcast. The webcast will be available for replay at www.timminco.com following the live presentation.
Timminco (TIMNF.PK) was, without a doubt, one of the great solar plays of 2007. The Toronto-based company, which has yet to turn a profit, claims it has come up with a process to produce solar-grade metallurgical silicon with cell efficiencies of about 14%. Metallurgical silicon allows for important energy cost savings in the production process (~70%), so being able to approach cell efficiencies reached by conventional solar-grade silicon processes could mean an important cost advantage for metallurgical silicon producers when measured on a per watt basis.


Eventually, certain people began publicly doubting Timminco's claim, partially because no hard evidence had been put forth (besides a few positive client testimonials), and partially because some were eager to cover short positions probably taken while the stock was shooting up. As a result, the stock came under pressure.

Finally, last week, Timminco silenced its critics by announcing that a third-party had verified and lauded its technology, and by upgrading a major contract. The third-party is Photon Consulting, a solar market research agency with a strong reputation.

But, while the Photon folks seem to have nothing but good things to say about the Timminco process, others are doubting whether Photon has sufficient technology and production process expertise to make a call on the veracity of Timminco's claims (from what I could gather, these "others" are mainly competitors). Judging by the stock's moves since the announcement, it seems as though investors are siding with management for now.

The full results of Photon's analysis won't be known until the close of markets Wednesday. Seeing as the Photon principal in charge of this project said that Timminco had the potential to "reshap[e] the silicon industry," it will certainly be interesting to hear the full details of what he has to say. Interested in finding out more about what could be a breakthrough in solar cell manufacturing? Be sure to tune in to the call on Wednesday at EST4:30pm. All details are available here (PDF document).
Präsentation ist online.

in 2 Minuten geht es los.

noch jemand hier?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.095.850 von meinolf67 am 14.05.08 22:28:42Ja, bin noch hier.

Verstehe leider wenig englisch, denke aber, die Präsentation sieht nicht schlecht aus, so was ich verstanden habe, oder?
sie haben fertig.


nicht viel schlauer als zuvor.


Rogol rechnet mit operating profit von 270-1000 Mio. USD in 2010 für die UMG-Sparte.

In der Tendenz wirkt der Ansatz konservativ.

Parameterbandbreiten:

VK 45-65$/kg
Kosten all in: 13-22$
Volumen 12.000-20.000 Tonnnen

worst case: 12.000to x (45-22)$ = 276.000.000
best case: 20.000to x (65-13)$ = 1.040.000



irgendwie ist die ganze Veranstaltung ulkig; so als ob MediaMarkt sich McKinsey holt, um sich bestätigen zu lassen, dass sie ganz toll Geld verdienen werden...
Andy Nasr isn't quite ready to jump in with both feet following Timminco Ltd.'s (TIMNF.PK) conference call to discuss the operational review of its facilities, but the Raymond James analyst is certainly feeling a little more confident about the company's prospects thanks in large part to higher-than-anticipated contract prices.

In a note to clients he wrote:

While [Tuesday's] conference call only modestly allayed our concerns regarding execution risk, we were admittedly surprised to learn that the company had and could enter into supply agreements to sell its solar-grade silicon at prices of greater than $60 per kilogram. We had previously assumed that solar-grade silicon shipments would be transacted at prices of approximately $45 per kilogram.

Mr. Nasr also noted that the independent review concluded that Timminco will be able to hit its production targets and increase its capacity from 3,600 metric tonnes to over 14.4 metric tonnes by mid-2009. As well, Timminco to produce between 5 to 10 thousand tonnes of solar grade silicon in 2009 and 12 to 20 thousand tonnes in 2010, with costs declining from C$16 to C$30 per kilogram in 2009 to C$13 to C$22 by 2010.

Nonetheless, Mr. Nasr remains cautious about further upside in the stock, which climbed another 7% to C$26.58 in morning trading on Thursday. He upgraded his rating on Timminco from "underperform" to "market perform," and raised his price target from C$19 to C$27.

We remain reluctant to recommend that investors buy the stock, given the execution risk and long-term silicon supply concerns that we previously highlighted.
Timminco gets nod from consulting solar booster Rogol


2008-05-16 16:48 ET - Street Wire

by Lee M. Webb

Timminco Ltd., a sizzling Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) solar play, has received an enthusiastic nod from booster Michael Rogol's PHOTON Consulting following a one-day visit to the company's silicon plant in Becancour, Que.

The bullish Mr. Rogol says Timminco could realistically generate $1.3-billion in revenue from sales of its solar-grade silicon and ring up an operating profit of $1-billion by 2010.

Led by chairman and chief executive officer Heinz Schimmelbusch, Timminco piled into the frothy solar silicon market last year on the strength of a secret proprietary metallurgical process to turn the chemical-grade silicon produced by its Becancour plant into the much more valuable 99.999-per-cent pure solar-grade silicon used in the booming solar cell industry.

Timminco is still ramping up its 3,600-metric-ton upgraded metallurgical silicon operation and tweaking its proprietary process, but it has already inked long-term contracts with five customers, including the world's largest supplier of solar cells, German-based Q-Cells AG.

Over the next year, Timminco plans to increase its solar-grade silicon production capacity to 14,400 metric tons per year. The expansion, targeted for completion in the second quarter of 2009, is expected to have a capital cost of $65-million.

All the hoopla has sent Timminco's stock price soaring from approximately 40 cents per share prior to its emergence as a solar play just over a year ago to more than $28 per share in recent trading. The company now has a market capitalization in excess of $2.9-billion.

The rocketing stock price, Timminco's unusual share structure and, among other things, the fact that its secret proprietary process renders its solar-grade silicon operation a black-box project have caught the attention of some critics and short sellers.

In a May 8 news release issued just ahead of releasing its first-quarter results, Timminco announced that it had hired PHOTON to prepare a report to "support due diligence efforts for strategic discussions beyond normal supplier-customer relationships that are continuing with potential partners."

During the May 8 first-quarter conference call, Mr. Schimmelbusch more candidly acknowledged that Mr. Rogol's firm had been engaged in response to public criticisms and questions about Timminco.

The company held another conference call to discuss a summary of PHOTON's glowing report on May 14.

PHOTON review

Interestingly, during the conference call, Mr. Rogol indicated that he had called Timminco to suggest that PHOTON perform an operational review of the company's silicon operation in order to quell some of the growing criticms.

Mr. Rogol, still in his 30s, has evidently managed to cram a considerable amount of education and experience into his youngish life.

He holds a bachelor of science in engineering systems and an MBA from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a bachelor of science in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and was a Henry Luce East Asia Scholar in Korea.

In addition to his educational qualifications, Mr. Rogol claims to have 15 years of experience in the energy sector, including five years experience involving solar energy and silicon.

Mr. Rogol's firm contributes articles to PHOTON Magazine, writes commissioned research reports for solar energy players and organizes and runs solar conferences.

Indeed, Mr. Rogol was the keynote speaker at a Photon International conference in Munich on April 1. Timminco participated in that conference.

It is worth noting that Mr. Rogol's bullish outlook regarding solar silicon pricing was not shared by everyone at the Munich conference, including cautious industry players who warned of a possible oversupply of solar-grade silicon and declining prices.

In the preamble to the May 14 conference call, Mr. Rogol reported that PHOTON has a number of retainer clients including Timminco that pay the firm an undisclosed annual fee.

Mr. Rogol reported that Timminco was also paying PHOTON for the one-hour conference call, but assured listeners that his firm's analysis was not impacted by the compensation.

Accompanying Mr. Rogol on his one-day walkabout at Becancour earlier this month were Hilary Flynn and Martin Meyers.

Ms. Flynn reportedly writes a monthly column, Silicon Space, for PHOTON International magazine and has four years experience in renewable energy with a focus on silicon.

Mr. Meyers, a Canadian with degrees from Concordia University and Queens University, has a more extensive 30 years of experience in the energy sector with a chemical engineering background. He has previously worked for companies like Shell Oil and Irving Oil.

According to Mr. Rogol, his enthusiasm was tempered and balanced by Mr. Meyers's experience, though there was little, if any, evidence of that tempering influence during the May 14 conference call.

Sunny forecast

In the cautionary preface and disclaimer to the operational review report, Timminco warned that while the report was based on information provided by the company, "the expectations or forecasts of future production volumes, future revenues and average selling prices, future variable and other costs of production, future profitability and operating margins" and so on were the exclusive opinion of PHOTON.

PHOTON offered its own "important disclaimer," noting that the document provided in conjunction with the conference call was "a preliminary assessment" and that there were "significant constraints on the accuracy of the analysis due to limited time of research."

As Mr. Rogol put it, the ballyhooed operational review report was a "preliminary assessment that should be taken as a best-guess."

"Further refinement is strongly suggested," Mr. Rogol stressed, perhaps angling for a return engagement to move his assessment beyond a "best-guess."

As part of his background discussion, the apparently prescient Mr. Rogol claimed that he had been tracking Timminco for two years and had been following upgraded metallurgical silicon developments for several years.

Based on interviews conducted over the past two months with more than 15 unidentified companies using Timminco's solar-grade silicon, Mr. Rogol says that the company's material "works now and will work even better with practice."

According to Mr. Rogol, the most common concern among companies using upgraded metallurgical silicon is not about anything like pricing, but whether they can get "much more material in current spec ranges."

Turning to a discussion of transparency, Mr. Rogol said that management "appeared completely open with all aspects of business ... to the point of discomfort for some on their team."

The solar consultant said that the PHOTON team had access to Timminco's accounting procedures, research and development efforts, contracts for solar-grade silicon, all plant operations and, among other things, intellectual property and technical processes.

Notwithstanding all that transparency, anyone expecting PHOTON's operational review report to provide a few insights into Timminco's black-box process for turning its metallurgical silicon into solar-grade silicon was sorely disappointed.

While Mr. Rogol was clearly impressed, if not awed, by the set-up of the solar silicon operation and experience of the company's managers, his amateurish report offered little in the way of detail about the technical processes.

He did, however, have a good deal to say about the growth prospects for Timminco's upgraded metallurgical silicon.

Mr. Rogol used a bifurcated approach to laying out his bullish outlook for Timminco, offering a "realistic" assessment alongside a "realistic - downside" assessment, both of which look rather balmy.

According to Mr. Rogol, by a realistic downside assessment, Timminco should have an upgraded metallurgical silicon production volume of 12,000 metric tons per year in 2010. His so-called realistic target is 20,000 metric tons per year by 2010.

Assuming average selling prices of $45 per kilogram to $65 per kilogram, the boosterish Mr. Rogol pegs Timminco's revenue from solar-grade silicon at $540-million on the downside calculation and $1.3-billion by a realistic calculation for 2010.

By Mr. Rogol's account, fully-loaded costs, excluding stock options, will range between $13 per kilogram and $22 per kilogram, giving Timminco's solar-grade silicon business an operating profit of between $270-million and $1-billion in 2010.

Setting aside the observation that many of Mr. Rogol's bullish predictions seem more reminiscent of the type of drum-beating found in tout sheets than objective operational reviews, it is not even clear why the boosterish solar consultant tosses off calculations based on a projected production volume of 20,000 metric tons per year for 2010.

Timminco is still ramping up production in its recently completed 3,600-metric-ton upgraded metallurgical operation and the company is still in the planning stages of increasing its production capacity to 14,400 metric tons by the middle of 2009, which would leave it 5,600 metric tons short of Mr. Rogol's 2010 forecast.

In any event, Mr. Rogol's upbeat report evidently had some market impact. It also had at least some analysts rethinking their position.

James gang

On May 1, Raymond James Ltd. initiated coverage on Timminco in a 95-page renewable energy report in which analyst Andy Nasr rated the company "underperform," suggesting it should be sold and setting a target of $15.

Prompted by the May 8 news that PHOTON had conducted an operational review of Timminco and was touting the company as having the potential "for reshaping the silicon industry," Raymond James maintained its underperform rating, but raised its target to $19.

Following the May 14 conference call, Raymond James's Mr. Nasr revisited his position, this time raising Timminco's rating to "market perform" and boosting his price target to $27.

While Mr. Rogol's so-called operational review report evidently influenced Mr. Nasr's rather remarkable $12 swing in price target for Timminco, not everyone was enthralled or swayed by PHOTON's May 14 performance.

Whale tale

Cormark Securities Inc. analyst MacMurray Whale was less than impressed with the upbeat report delivered by the bullish Mr. Rogol.

"Last night's 'operational review' conference call offered far more in terms of forward looking financial projections than critical technical evaluation of operations," Mr. Whale wrote in his May 15 morning meeting notes. "That is disappointing."

According to Mr. Whale, Timminco missed out on an opportunity to quell criticisms about the company's poor disclosure.

While the Cormark analyst was unimpressed, he opined that PHOTON's financial projections, in spite of being subject to extremely bullish demand assumptions for solar modules, will likely get many investors excited and send Timminco's share price higher in the short term. He certainly had that right, with the stock up sharply in the wake of the report.

Mr. Whale says that despite the potential for upgraded metallurgical silicon, there are significant hurdles to wide adoption in the solar energy sector.

"The use of the material requires very specific technological innovations at the material sorting, ingot casting, wafering and cell processing stages, suggesting that only integrated ingot-wafer-cell manufacturers that have invested significant R&D are likely to use the material unblended in a significant way," Mr. Whale wrote.

The Cormark analyst questioned Mr. Rogol's predictions regarding cost reductions at Timminco, noting that "no discussion was provided as to whether the project cost reduction was consistent with the physics and chemistry of the process itself."

Mr. Whale went on to say that it appeared PHOTON "has relied on past cost reduction achievements in the pilot plant and recent cost reductions made on the commercial plant, without any consideration whether further reductions are even thermodynamically possible."

The skeptical analyst acknowledged that it might be unrealistic to expect such disclosures "given the proprietary nature of the process," but cautioned investors to appropriately discount any analysis using such cost reduction figures until financial results reveal the actual costs.

The bearish Cormark analyst says that PHOTON is "clearly at the very high end of demand expectations in the solar industry" and its predictions are based on very tenuous market assumptions.

"A prediction of a six-fold increase from current demand levels is completely at odds with a tariff cap instituted in Spain, the steeper tariff declines proposed in Germany and the delays to the ITC experience in the US, not to mention a US recession and concerns of its spread globally," Mr. Whale wrote. "It is also a surprisingly suspect outlook for a group that has such wide regard in the industry."

According to Mr. Whale, Mr. Rogol's prediction that Timminco could hit $1.3-billion in revenue in 2010 "is completely unrealistic" and his forecast of $1-billion in operating profit representing an 80-per-cent operating margin is "preposterously high."

"Clearly with the industry far above economically competitive system pricing without regulatory tariff structures, a company with an 80-per-cent EBIT margin anywhere in the supply chain would be under significant pressure to reduce pricing," the Cormark analyst wrote.

Mr. Whale acknowledged that recent conference calls, including Timminco customer Q-Cells AG's first-quarter call on May 14, dispel much of the concern about demand for upgraded metallurgical silicon. Nonetheless, he says that the concern now "shifts to the risk and potential of cost reductions over the upcoming ramp period."

"Though the general comments of customers and PHOTON seem encouraging on the surface, we still cannot recommend the stock as it trades significantly above our reasonable evaluation of the UMG-Si opportunity at TIM," Mr. Whale wrote. "As a result, we maintain our Reduce recommendation and $19.50 target."

At the moment, the market clearly does not share Mr. Whale's bearish sentiment. In the two days since PHOTON delivered its sunny forecast, Timminco has gained $3.60 and notched a new 52-week high on the way to closing out the week at $28.50.

Comments regarding this article may be sent to lwebb@stockwatch.com.

(More information regarding Timminco Ltd. is available in a Stockwatch article published on May 14, 2008.)




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The report that is the subject of your article did not provide any evaluation, independent or otherwise, of Timminco's metallurgical solar grade silicon process.

Timminco has stated that Photon Consulting was hired under a policy that precludes the hiring of any outside party with the technical ability to conduct an independent evaluation of its silicon purification process. In accordance with Timminco’s policy, Photon Consulting does not have the resources to make such an evaluation.

On its most recent earnings call Timminco stated that it will not allow any technically competent engineer to review its silicon purification operation.

Timminco has stated that its process is simple and that its process was developed without spending material amounts of time or money, unlike its competitors. Timminco claims that doing so might allow someone to duplicate its process.

Photon Consulting was selected by Timminco to prevent this event.

Your story also omits material facts and information related to issues of management character, corporate goverance, irregular insider transactions, conflicts of interest, Photon's reputational matters and, most importantly, competiting, far more sophiticated, better known technologies for treating melted silicon with heat and chemical. Without an understanding of exactly what and how Timminco purifies smelted silicon, how can you write an article about what was supposed to have been an "operational review."


Posted by Jack Aronawitz @ 2008-05-17 10:09



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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 33.756.660 von meinolf67 am 29.03.08 08:21:55Hi,

ich verstehe den Inhalt leider nicht:
Die Crux liegt in der kompletten Verarbeitungskette vom Ingot bis zur Zelle und da -behaupten sie zumindest- scheint QCE derzeit weit vorne zu liegen.

Kann mir das jemand bitte kurz erklären, warum das Material schwieriger zu verschneiden sein soll,...?

Merci
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.124.873 von UWR_Kerl am 19.05.08 15:04:11
Ich kann das nicht im Detail erklären, aber es dürfte um folgendes gehen:

Wenn Du eine Solarzelle aus herkömmlichem Siemens-Silizium baust, kannst Du sie zunächst mal eigentlich gleich in die Tonne werfen, weil dieses Silizium viel zu rein ist. Du brauchst die "Verunreinigungen" von Bor und Phosphor, damit Elektronen fließen können.

Aber Bor und Phosphor eben nicht irgendwie, sondern in der richtigen Dosierung und an der richtigen Stelle. Deshalb werden Solarzellen künstlich mit Bor und Phosphor "verunreinigt". Das passiert in Diffusionsöfen.

UMG-Si ist von haus aus stärker mit Bor und Phosphor vorbelastet, so dass Du bei der Diffusion anders und wahrscheinlich sensibler nachsteuern musst.

Dass man bis zum Ingot zurückgehen will, macht vielleicht vor allem dann Sinn, wenn man mit Siemens-Si verschneiden will oder man kann bei 100% UMG-Si vielleicht schon beim Ingot-Schmelzen irgendwie sie Dotierung beeinflussen.

Vielleicht liest capgap noch mit - der kann sicher mehr dazu sagen.

(tja, hätte wohl doch bei 15 Dollar meine Chance nutzen sollen. Typisch. :laugh: )
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.126.100 von MontPelerin am 19.05.08 16:57:04Danke für die Antwort.

Ich habe mich etwas schlecht ausgedrückt, da mir der prinzipielle Fertigungsprozess vom Rohmaterial, über den Ingot, dem Waferschneiden, der Waferbehandlung (Polieren + Dotieren), Kontaktieren (Stringer?!), Modulfertigung, Dachmontage so grob klar ist.

Zurück zum Anfang, Timminco kann Quarz in m(meallurgisches)-Si umwandeln, und angeblich schön reinigen bis es <10 ppmw Verunreinigungen aufweist. Bei der Halbleiterdotierung spielen vor allem Bor + Phosphor die entscheidende Rolle (3.+5.Hauptgruppe im Periodensystem), deshalb ist das UMG-Si von Timminco ja angeblich auch so toll, weil es (sehr) wenig von dem Zeug von Natur aus mit sich bringt. Die anschließende Diffusionsdotierung ist natürlich von der Ausgangskonzentration abhängig.

Was aber heißt "verscheiden"? Ist das Abfall der beim Waferscheneiden anfällt?! Oder ist damit das Dotieren gemeint, oder aber der Mischprozess mit Siemens-Si? Ich kenne das Wort so nicht.


Wie ist denn Eure teilweise lange Erfahrung mit dem "Rogol-Booster"? Ist dies der Cramer von FSLR für Timminco? Eher ein gutes Zeichen, oder ist der Zug schon lange Abgefahren (die Kursentwicklung ist ja eher abschreckend) und wartet dieser nun nur drauf potentiellen Mitfahren über die Füße zu rollen? Was ich meine, hat sich Rogol schon öfters "kaufen" lassen?


Gruß,
UWR_Kerl (UnWissendeR_Kerl) :laugh:


P.S.: Noch ne Frage. Wie sehr schützen denn Patente (UMG-Si-Patent) , dass potentielle Konkurrenten (z.B. unsere lieben Freunde die Chinesen) die Idee einfach klauen. Wenn die Firmen keinen in die Fabrik lassen, dann kann doch auch nicht kontrolliert werden, nach welchem Verfahren gefertigt wird. Dann wäre es doch eigentlich am schlausten noch nicht einmal ein Patent anzumelden?! Das spart Geld, Zeit und hält die Idee noch geheimer. [Rogol]: ‘secret sauce’ of making poly is becoming closer to a recipe”
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.126.543 von UWR_Kerl am 19.05.08 17:35:58
okay, überflüssige Erklärungen meinerseits. ;)

Verschneiden verstehe ich in diesem Zusammenhang als Mischen mit Siemens-Si. Das Timminco-UMG-Si muss ja von Q-Cells angeblich nicht verschnitten werden, aber vielleicht machen sie es trotzdem, um bei der Effizienz noch ein bissel was raus zu kitzeln.

Rogol halte ich für seriös - nach allem, was ich so weiß. Zuletzt hat er auch bei LDK "rechter" gehabt, als die Kritiker.

Zur Konkurrenz: Ich gehe davon aus, dass UMG-Si jetzt auf dem Marsch ist und dass es viele Unternehmen geben wird, die das in den Griff bekommen - Patente hin oder her - viele Wege führen nach Rom. Elkem ist ein heißer Kandidat für UMG, Q-Cells spricht selbst davon, dass sie von vielen Herstellern Proben haben und einiges davon ganz gut aussieht. Und selbst aus China soll es schon recht anständiges Material geben. Frgae ist eben immer: Labor oder Fabrik?
Aber ich glaube, der Geist ist aus der Flasche - und die Solarbranche wird sich heftig verändern - spätestens nach 2010.

Darüber muss man nochmal nachdenken. Eines dürfte aber ziemlich klar sein: Die Hemlocks dieser Welt haben ihre besten Tage bald hinter sich.
Hier Link zu nem Artikel von 2003:

http://www.ugii.net/umwelt/schriften/2003-2hr-silizium.html

nicht mehr ganz aktuell, aber dennoch interessant.
Weiter unten gibt Herr Riemann Kosteneinsparpotentiale an, dzu gehört an erster Stelle das Rohmaterial. Und so kommen wir zurück auf Timminco. In den letzten 5 Jahren hat sich ja einiges getan, so ist die Reinheit von UMG-Silizium von Timminco nicht mehr nur 99.99% (siehe Artikel allgemein) sondern 99.99999% (10 ppm) und damit "solar grade stuff".

Scheint also, als ob dies der richtige Weg ist.


Ich habe da noch nen Verständnisproblem uns zwar:
Warum kombiniert man nicht den Herstellungsprozess des UMGs mit der Kristallzüchtung? Entsteht nicht durch Selbstorganisation in der Schmelze Polysilizium-Ingots beim Ablühlen in entsprechenden Tiegeln (Crucibles), wenn der Abkühlprozess temperaturgeregelt wird ???
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