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News


Thursday, November 12, 2009 4:30:58 AM EST

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S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP
(Standard & Poor's)
ABK reports $7.58 Q3 EPS vs. year ago $8.45 a share loss on a $4.8B swing in value of ABK's credit derivatives under fair value accounting. We note underlying operations remain weak and increase our '09 operating loss view to $15.40 from $8.10 (on weak first half results and our view operating results will remain unprofitable). We still see a $2.00 per share operating loss for 2010. We would not add to positions and note 9/30 book value was a deficit of $9.83 a share. Our $1.50 target price (raised $0.50) assumes ABK remains at the low end of valuation ranges.


http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/markets/news/story.a…
12.11.09 08:54
MONOLINER AMBAC warnt v. PLEITE
Den Us-Anleiheversicherern MBIA und AMBAC geht d. Geld aus. Weil die amerikanische Regierung beiden Firmen keine Hilfen gewähren will, könnte demnächst eine Insolvenz bevorstehen. Experten halten es aber für denkbar, dass eine List der Unternehmen hinter den Pleitedrohungen steckt.

v. S. Bräuer u. Nina Luttmer



Die Anteilseigner der größten US-Anleiheversicherer MBIA und Ambac stellen sich auf die Insolvenz der beiden Firmen ein. Die Kurse der auch "Monoliner" genannten Unternehmen stürzten am Dienstag durch Panikverkäufe um 27 und 33 Prozent ab. Auslöser war eine Meldung an die Börsenaufsicht SEC, in der Ambac deutlicher als je zuvor vor der Insolvenz warnte. "Ambacs Liquidität ist aktuell nicht ausreichend, um die Kosten über die kurze Frist hinaus decken zu können." Und wenn man die aktuelle Strategie nicht erfolgreich umsetze, könnte "die Liquidität im zweiten Quartal 2011 ausgehen, möglicherweise auch früher", heißt es in dem Bericht.
Auch am Mittwoch setzte die Ambac-Aktie ihren Sinkflug fort. "Die Insolvenz ist sehr wahrscheinlich geworden", sagte Sean Egan, Gründer der Ratingagentur Egan-Jones. Dafür spreche, dass die US-Regierung den beiden Firmen bisher keine Hilfen gewährt habe und dies auch jetzt kaum tun werde.

Ambac und der größere Rivale MBIA befinden sich seit Ausbruch der Finanzkrise im Abwärtsstrudel. Die angebotene Absicherung von komplexen Finanzprodukten erwies sich als Milliardengrab. Allerdings halten es Beobachter auch für möglich, dass die Insolvenzwarnung eine List Ambacs ist, die den Druck auf Gläubiger - vor allem Banken, aber auch US-Städte und Gemeinden - erhöhen soll, um bei offenen Forderungen Kompromisse einzugehen. Auch europäischen Banken drohen im Falle eines Kollapses weitere Abschreibungen. Sie haben sich bei dem Anleiheversicherer gegen den Ausfall komplexer Wertpapiere versichert. Wie hoch das Verlustpotenzial ist, lässt sich kaum bewerten: Die Institute geben in der Regel nicht bekannt, welches Volumen ihr Geschäft mit einzelnen Anleiheversicherern hat und wie groß die Gefahr eines Ausfalls der versicherten Papiere ist.
Eine Ausnahme ist die BayernLB, die zumindest offiziell gemacht hat, dass sie zum Halbjahr 286 Mio. Euro an strukturierten Wertpapieren bei Ambac versichert hatte. Auf Nachfrage sagte ein BayernLB-Sprecher am Mittwoch aber, dass eine Insolvenz von Ambac die Ergebnisse der Bank dennoch nicht belasten werde, da die Risiken unter den Garantieschirm des Freistaats Bayern fallen.

Die UBS , die Commerzbank und die Deutsche Bank , die allesamt große Monoliner-Posten haben, wollten auf Anfrage nicht sagen, was eine Insolvenz von Ambac für sie bedeutet. Die Commerzbank hatte aber in ihrem letzten Zwischenbericht angekündigt, dass sie über bereits gebildete Wertberichtigungen hinaus "weitere nennenswerte Ertragsbelastungen" aus Monoliner-Versicherungen erwartet. Auch die UBS hat ihre Monoliner-Geschäfte zuletzt erneut als Klumpenrisiko mit Verlustpotenzial bezeichnet.


http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/versicherungen/:im-abwaertsstr…
Oder auch hier:

secform4

Sec Filings Insider Trading - Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK)



http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/874501.htm
D. gr. Problem ist d. Rating !!!

Wer investiert in ein Unternehmen, d. seit Juli 09, eine
Ratingbeurteilung Caa2
hat !!!

Ramschpapier


Rating Action: Ambac Assurance Corporation


Moody's downgrades Ambac to Caa2; outlook is developing
New York, July 29, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Caa2 from Ba3 the insurance
financial strength ratings of Ambac Assurance Corporation ("Ambac") and Ambac Assurance UK Limited. In
the same rating action, Moody's also downgraded the credit ratings of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (Ambac
Financial), lowering the rating of the senior unsecured debt to Ca from Caa1. The ratings outlook for Ambac
is developing, and is negative for Ambac Financial.
Today's rating action may have implications for certain transactions wrapped by Ambac as discussed later in
this press release.
RATIONALE FOR RATINGS AND OUTLOOKS
Today's rating action was prompted by Ambac's recently announced large loss reserve increase and credit
impairment charge estimated for 2Q2009. These losses would reduce Ambac's regulatory capital to levels
below the required minimum threshold, though the company has petitioned the Wisconsin insurance
regulator to approve a reclassification of statutory contingency reserves to offset the capital depletion. With
the risk of regulatory intervention now elevated, Moody's believes there will be increased pressure on
Ambac's counterparties to commute outstanding exposures on terms that could imply a distressed exchange.
For Ambac Financial, the greater regulatory risk further reduces the likelihood in Moody's view that the
holding company will be able to access operating company resources over a reasonable timeframe to satisfy
its obligations. This raises the risk of distressed exchanges of outstanding debt with moderate-to-high
estimated severity due to the holding company's modest cash position and limited financial flexibility.
The developing outlook for Ambac reflects the possibility of either positive or negative movement on Ambac's
insurance financial strength ratings, depending on the performance of the insured portfolio and including any
negotiated policy terminations over the next one to two years.
The negative outlook for Ambac Financial reflects Moody's view that severity of loss on senior debt could be
quite high, particularly if the company's performance deteriorates further.
TREATMENT OF WRAPPED TRANSACTIONS
Moody's ratings on securities that are guaranteed or "wrapped" by a financial guarantor are generally
maintained at a level equal to the higher of the following: a) the rating of the guarantor (if rated at the
investment grade level); or b) the published underlying rating (and for structured securities, the published or
unpublished underlying rating). Moody's approach to rating wrapped transactions is outlined in Moody's
special comment entitled "Assignment of Wrapped Ratings When Financial Guarantor Falls Below
Investment Grade" (May, 2008); and Moody's November 10, 2008 announcement entitled "Moody's Modifies
Approach to Rating Structured Finance Securities Wrapped by Financial Guarantors".
In light of today's downgrade of Ambac, Moody's will position the ratings of wrapped transactions or withdraw
such ratings according to these criteria. For wrapped transactions whose ratings are withdrawn based on
these criteria, if the rating of Ambac should subsequently move back into the investment grade range, or if
the agency should subsequently publish the underlying rating, Moody's would reinstate the rating to the
wrapped instruments.
LIST OF RATING ACTIONS
The following ratings have been downgraded:
Ambac Assurance Corporation -- insurance financial strength to Caa2 from Ba3;
Ambac Assurance UK Limited -- insurance financial strength to Caa2 from Ba3;
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. -- senior unsecured debt to Ca from Caa1, junior subordinated debt to C from
Caa2 and provisional rating on preferred stock to (P)C from (P)Ca.


The last rating action related to Ambac was on April 13, 2009, when Moody's downgraded Ambac's financial
strength ratings to Ba3 and Ambac Financial's ratings (senior debt to Caa1).
The principal methodology used in rating Ambac was Moody's Rating Methodology for the Financial
Guaranty Insurance Industry, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies
directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been
considered in the process of rating Ambac can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK), headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose
affiliates provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors
around the world.
New York
Helen Remeza
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Ted Collins
Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Ambac Faces Liquidity Crunch

* By Zacks Equity Research
* On 9:57 am EST, Friday November 13, 2009



In its quarterly filing on Monday, Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK - News) revealed that it is facing liquidity constraints. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, the company’s liquidity consisted of $164.7 million of cash, short term investments and bonds. Management is unsure whether this will be sufficient for its liquidity needs through the second quarter of 2011.


Ambac’s access to other sources of liquidity also remains uncertain. The company has a $143.0 million debt payment obligation maturing in Aug 2011. Furthermore, an unfavorable outcome of the outstanding class action lawsuits against Ambac could cause additional liquidity strain. Given the company’s current condition, it is possible that its liquidity may run out prior to the second quarter of 2011.

Ambac, the first monoline bond insurer, had never been downgraded or defaulted prior to 2007. In 2007, amid a housing market decline, defaults soared to record levels on subprime mortgages and innovative adjustable rate mortgages, which had been issued in anticipation of continued rises in house prices. The company posted losses as insured structured products backed by residential mortgages appeared headed for default.

Ambac has suffered multiple rating downgrades from June 2008 through August 2009. Its principal operating subsidiary Ambac Assurance rating stands at Junk status, “CC. The financial strength rating downgrades have adversely impacted Ambac’s ability to generate new business and had negatively affected its operating and financial results. As housing market conditions have deteriorated and the illiquidity in the mortgage markets has become more pronounced, the company has experienced an increase in foreclosure loans.

Ambac is developing strategies to address its liquidity needs. Such strategies may include a negotiated restructuring of its debt through a prepackaged bankruptcy proceeding. However, given the state of credit markets, it is unsure that Ambac will be successful in executing any or all of its strategies. If the company is unable to execute these strategies, it will consider seeking bankruptcy protection without creditor’s agreement, pertaining to a plan of reorganization.

AMBAC FINL GROUP INC (ABK): Read the Full Research Report
Munis: Does AMBAC's Plight Boost Risk?

Posted by: Karyn McCormack on November 16

Although municipal bond insurers have been on life support for almost two years, Ambac Financial Group’s (ABK) revelation in a Nov. 9 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it might have to file for bankruptcy protection in mid 2011 should serve to remind muni investors of the need to be especially careful with what they buy.

Until early 2008, cities, towns and states across the U.S. were able to offer muni bonds at a nice premium if they were insured by Ambac, MBIA (MBI) or a handful of other companies. Now that it’s understood how insurance, once limited to munis, has been spread thinly across many riskier assets, the market has no illusions about insurers’ ability to cover losses in the event of another perfect financial storm, says Bill Larkin, a portfolio manager for fixed income at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass.

Despite the strong possibility that after June 2011, Ambac may not be able to fulfill its obligations, muni investors don’t have much reason for worry: bond prices have already factored in the increased risk of default, since investors no longer depend on insurance, say some bond fund managers. While it’s bound to be painful, municipal governments have no choice but to bring their spending in line with lower revenues, says Larkin. “States can raise fees, levy fees, auction off properties, lay [city workers] off. They can do some uncomfortable things, but the bond holders get paid.”

Muni prices have also been pushed down by the market’s anticipation of more supply hitting the market as cities and states feel the need to raise funds amid sharp declines in government revenue from falling property valuations, he says.

His one concern is that there could be a loss of confidence among high net worth individual investors, who dominate the muni market. Unlike institutional investors, retail investors tend to get their information from the news and could panic a little on negative headlines such as those regarding Ambac last week.

"If the market got soft because of that, I’d be in there buying [in the secondary market]. I think a lot of other people would be, too," he says.

Despite Larkin’s optimism, there are real questions about how long it will be before some of the most cash-strapped municipalities succumb to the bad economic conditions and default on their debt.

That's why Nuveen Asset Management has added research staff in order to be "even more diligent in analyzing the underlying credit on the bonds we buy," says Tom Spalding, who manages about $9.5 billion in muni assets at the Chicago-based firm.

"What we buy now that used to be insured at a triple A [credit rating] is now providing value for us, with wider spread yields," says Spalding. He estimates that bonds are 0.4% to 0.5% cheaper than they were when they carried insurance people could believe in.

Larkin at Cabot plays the muni bond market very defensively. "You want to be looking at critical services – interstate highway bonds, schools," he says. "I avoid hospitals because they have funding problems," as do some universities and airports that don’t have a monopoly on service.

Larkin scans U.S. Census Bureau data to sniff out communities with lots of children, low divorce rates and high household income. "That correlates to a high [credit] rating."

Spalding agrees that investors should stick with bonds that finance cities’ essential services, which comprise roughly 90% of what Nuveen buys.

By David Bogoslaw


http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives…
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10627439/1/ambac-financial-languishes-on-death-row.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

Hier der Text:


Ambac Financial Languishes on Death Row
By Gavin Magor 11/17/09 - 05:00 AM EST


Stock quotes in this article: ABK , MBI , AGO

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ambac Financial Group(ABK Quote), unlike other financial companies, isn't in denial about the extent of its troubles -- it's just the opposite.
The bond insurer is upfront that it may have to file for bankruptcy in 2011. But perhaps investors ought to focus on more immediate problems, such as meeting Wisconsin insurance minimum capital and surplus requirements. Ambac's insurance operations are domiciled in that state.

Bond insurers are fighting for survival. MBIA(MBI Quote) isn't writing new bond coverage even though it has restructured itself. Assured Guaranty(AGO Quote) is still writing coverage, but it posted a third-quarter loss of $35 million.

In June, I identified Ambac's situation as "perilous." At the time, the company was trying to launch Everspan, a new bond insurer, that it hoped would regenerate business. Shortly afterward, frustrated with its inability to raise funding, Ambac abandoned the attempt. TheStreet.com reported in June that Ambac wasn't in compliance with state capital and surplus requirements at Ambac Assurance and that it would have to submit a remediation plan.

Then, like now, immediate liquidity wasn't considered the issue. Unlike then, we can now make projections about liquidity running dry. The deadline for Ambac to file statutory financial statements for the insurance company with the Wisconsin Department of Insurance was yesterday. The filing will indicate that its capital and surplus position has deteriorated, according to the insurer's own statements.

When an insurer fails to meet a state insurance regulator's minimum requirements for capital and surplus, it usually is required to explain the circumstance and how it intends to remedy the situation. The company and regulator then agree on a plan for re-capitalization and a timeframe. If the business fails, the company can be placed under the supervision of the insurance regulator by court order until it meets the requirements or seeks an order to wind up operations.
In Ambac's case, Chief Executive Officer David Wallis said on the third-quarter earnings call that there is constant communication with Wisconsin's insurance regulator and that "the relationship continues to be excellent." He was unable to confirm that, when the statutory filing was made Monday, the insurance commissioner wouldn't place Ambac under supervision.
Jim Guidry, a spokesman for the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, told TheStreet.com on Monday that although the Ambac filing was still outstanding, the department was "unable to comment on any contemplated or ongoing action."

The second issue is liquidity. With a net reduction of cash and cash equivalents of $981 million to $150 million between the second and third quarters, that's a valid concern. Ambac has reported adequate liquidity in the short term at the holding company. The concern is more about the operating company.

With anticipated payments on insurance policies of $2.5 billion in the next 12 months and only $1.4 billion in investment income (including disposals) and premiums anticipated, there's a $1.1 billion gap that needs to be filled. The question is: Where can you raise cash without liquidating assets? Ambac is hoping to receive up to $400 million in government aid.

Another problem is that loss reserves for residential mortgage backed securities include $1.9 billion of estimated remediation recoveries. Those are recoveries due to misstatements made on mortgage applications that were subsequently insured. That remediation amount increased by $738 million in the third quarter, according to Ambac. To date, though, the insurer has collected only $60 million. Chief Financial Officer Sean Leonard says Ambac is in discussions about reaching a global settlement regarding one transaction. To be sure, Ambac's calculations could fall short and, therefore, the loss provisions may be inadequate.
Ambac's stock, which is trading at 75 cents, will continue to be extremely volatile for the foreseeable future and, especially, until the Wisconsin matter is cleared.
Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.
Thomson Financial - Gradient upgrades AMBAC FINL GRP INC from SELL to HOLD.
BY Investars Analyst Actions
— 07:15 AM ET 11/17/2009

On November 13, 2009 Thomson Financial - Gradient upgraded AMBAC FINL GRP INC from SELL to HOLD.


Quelle:
http://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/news/basicNewsStory.jhtml?symbols=ABK&product=ANACTN_P&provider=WSOD____&storyid=200911170715WSOD____ANACTN_P_225-7220_40130-20091113-23533436&hlinks=vnh
http://in.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idINN1810614520091118


UPDATE 1-Ambac says capital well above regulatory minimum
Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:43pm IST

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* Ambac 3rd-quarter statutory capital of $856 mln

* Results follow concerns over potential shortfall

* Shares rise 37 percent

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Ambac Financial (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday that the statutory capital of its main unit was well above a regulatory minimum at the end of the third quarter, easing concerns that the company would fall short of funds and be at risk of being taken over by state officials.

Shares of Ambac soared 37 percent to 96 cents after the disclosure in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Ambac said statutory capital for its Ambac Assurance Corp was $856 million. That is many times more than the minimum capital base of $2 million required of bond insurers by the insurance regulator for Wisconsin, where the company's bond insurance unit is based.

Regulators can seize a company when capital -- a surplus of assets over liabilities -- sinks below regulatory minimums.

The unit's capital benefited from several factors, including $311 million from reinsurance payments, and its ability to commute, or cancel, four asset-backed securities derivative contracts that had been worth more than $5 billion.

The company said it also expected to receive $440 million in tax refunds as a result of new legislation.

Ambac, once the No. 2 U.S. bond insurer, warned on Nov. 10 that bankruptcy could be an eventual possibility, based on projections that it could run out of liquidity by the second quarter of 2011.

Like larger rival MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Ambac has struggled to write new business since it lost top-notch ratings last year and has continued to struggle with derivatives losses, including losses tied to repackaged residential mortgage debt. (Reporting by Lilla Zuill; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)
By Gavin Magor 11/18/09 - 05:52 PM EST



Ambac Misstates Financials to Meet Minimums

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ambac Financial's(ABK Quote) bond-insurance unit fell short of capital requirements in Wisconsin for the second quarter and relied on misstated transactions to meet them, based on filings with the state's insurance regulator.

The subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, counted $520 million from transactions completed in the fourth quarter toward its third-quarter capital and surplus. Excluding that amount, its excess capital would have been $154.4 million as of Sept. 30, barely more than the $99.4 million minimum required by the Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner's Office.

Ambac Financial had raised the possibility that the subsidiary wouldn't meet minimum capital and surplus requirements. The company missed Monday's deadline to file the unit's financial statements and delayed submitting paperwork about its capital levels.

It became clear on Wednesday that Ambac Assurance had only $27.2 million in capital and surplus in June. The difference between the reported $305.6 million and the new figure is a $278.4 million understatement of credit default swap obligations, according to third-quarter filings with the state.

Ambac said in an 8-K filing on Wednesday it had reached a $520 million settlement of approximately $5 billion in terminated collateral debt obligations, which it included in its third-quarter results. However, these transactions weren't completed until the fourth quarter, according to regulatory filings.

That means the company overstated the $855.6 million of capital and surplus it said it had as of Sept. 30. Calls to Ambac weren't returned Wednesday.

Without these transactions, the company would have reported a capital and surplus amount of $336 million, which reflects a one-time $311 million recovery. Still, the insurer expects to receive $440 million in back-dated tax refunds, a measure approved Friday that will increase the capital and surplus.


If Ambac had failed the capital test, the Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner, Sean Dilweg, could have seized control of the company, triggering default clauses for loans and termination of credit default swap contracts. Ambac Assurance's operations are based in that state, and the parent company's headquarters is in New York.



Insurance regulators in Wisconsin "are working constructively with the Ambac board and management to evaluate strategic alternatives," Dilweg said in a statement. He declined to comment on the potential effect that any action may have on Ambac customers, creditors and shareholders.

The company's stock trades for less than $1. Two years ago, it traded for $26.

Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10628683/1/ambac-misstates-fi…
Ambac Meets With Wisconsin Regulators
By Gavin Magor 11/20/09 - 03:47 PM EST


NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner Sean Dilweg traveled to New York to meet with executives from Ambac Financial (ABK Quote) and the investment bank Jefferies yesterday.



Jim Guidry, a spokesman for Wisconsin's insurance regulator, says it was a "pre-arranged meeting to discuss regulatory business," but he declined to say what was discussed. Ambac spokesman Peter Poillon wouldn't say who attended the meeting from his company.

Dilweg's office said on Wednesday it was exploring "strategic alternatives" with Ambac's board, after the company's bond-insurance unit disclosed significant misstatements in its financial filings. The incorrect information enabled Ambac Assurance to exceed Wisconsin's capital minimums. In a filing this week, the company blamed data-entry errors for the erroneous data.

Ambac Assurance, the company's main operating unit, understated impairment charges for credit default swaps by $278.4 million in the second quarter. If the charges had been accurate, Ambac would have failed to meet capital requirements in Wisconsin for the first and second quarters. Ambac also counted $520 million made from fourth-quarter transactions toward its third-quarter results.

Wisconsin's insurance regulator is seeking advice from Jefferies, and has hired lawyers from Foley & Lardner. Guidry and Ambac's Poillon refused to say why Jefferies was hired or how much it was being paid for its expertise. Jefferies didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Guidry said he didn't know if lawyers from Foley & Lardner had attended the meeting, but two of the commissioner's deputies participated.

Retaining advisers is expensive. General Motors(MTLQQ Quote) paid more than $85 million for restructuring advice before it went into bankruptcy, according to court documents.

Poillon says Ambac executives "stand behind the financial statements and the disclosures made within." Guidry says the insurance commissioner "has a number of tools in his toolbox and he would decide what action to take, depending on the circumstances," without elaborating.

-- Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10630290/1/ambac-meets-with-w…
ja, die Fakten sind bekannt, deshalb wohl auch der Kurssturz am Freitag. Die Frage ist nur, was nun? behalten oder in Panik "verkaufen"? Offenbar wurden di eBilanzen manipuliert, Ambac spielt auf Zeit und auf eine Witschaftserhollung, könnte funktionieren. Ist die Aktie nun über oder unter bewertet?
Ambac Faces Do-or-Die in the New Year
12/21/09 - 09:21 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet)

The New York-based insurer is under threat of delisting from the New York Stock Exchange because its stock price has fallen so low, and under pressure from Wisconsin's industry regulator because of shrinking risk capital at a subsidiary based in that state.

But Ambac's most important challenge is to remain solvent. The NYSE and the regulator take a back seat. Not even profits and losses matter.

Here's the problem: Ambac has a responsibility to its stockholders. According to SNL Financial, companies that hold Ambac stock as of Sept. 30 included Affiliated Managers'(AMG Quote) Third Avenue Management subsidiary, with a 9.3% stake; and Citigroup's(C Quote) Smith Barney, with 5.2%. The portion of institutional stock held in the company fell 4.4% in the third quarter.

A delisting would severely reduce the value of the stock, as funds that own the stock would bail. On the other hand, time and money spent avoiding a delisting would detract from the insurer's attempts to focus on survival. Under NYSE rules, Ambac has until May 31 to raise the closing share price for a month to at least $1 and a 30-day closing average of at least $1 for that month. No additional plan is required to be submitted.

A popular method of avoiding a de-listing is to implement a reverse stock split. That could get the price up from 78 cents a share to $7.80 overnight, for example. Unfortunately, reverse splits also tend to result in a reduction of the stock price, as they sap investor confidence.

All is not lost, though. In many ways, solutions for Ambac's financial ills are the easiest way to boost the stock price. The company simply needs to report better-than-expected earnings or increased capital and surplus.

Short positions in Ambac are huge. There are 47.7 million shares, or 16.6% of outstanding stock, betting on a further decline.

Other stock-price remedies include a buyback. That's an unlikely scenario, given liquidity constraints. Ambac could also conclude a major remediation. The insurer hopes to get $1.9 billion stemming from residential mortgage-backed securities. Having only concluded a total of $60 million in remediation recoveries in total, good news on that front would lift the stock price.

Ambac could commute additional credit default swaps. That would result in reduced liabilities and, thus, increase capital and surplus.

Unfortunately, it's crystal clear that none of those ways of increasing the stock price have anything to do with the underlying business. Ambac is running on fumes -- it has no new business. The insurer could have hidden value if market conditions improve sufficiently, but can it survive long enough to find out?

Analysts' consensus stock price of $1 is optimistic, though entirely feasible. But, for now, Ambac is a speculator's dream stock. Fundamentals be damned, rumors are its lifeblood, facts irrelevant and even the perception of good news for the fourth quarter could keep the stock listed on the NYSE.

-- Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10650207/1/ambac-faces-do-or-…
Posted on 01/14/10 at 3:00pm by Zacks

Ambac Sues Credit Suisse - Analyst Blog



Ambac Assurance Corp, a unit of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) has sued Credit Suisse Group (CS), alleging the company misrepresented the risks of mortgage-backed securities in a deal Ambac insured in 2007. Ambac claimed that many of the loans involved were fraudulent, based on misstatements of income or occupancy.

Ambac increased its estimate of remediation recoveries on residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) transactions due to breaches of representations and warranties by approximately $738 million during the third quarter. Ambac is actively working on these transactions to resolve these breaches through litigation or otherwise, and continues to believe that the assumed recovery time of three years to be appropriate.

At the height of housing boom, dishonesty was widely prevalent in the industry, with very clear protective language was standard in the loan contracts involved. Many loans by financial institutions were made with false representations. However, a problem with tracking the main culprit is that many of them have been acquired by others who seem less than enthusiastic about accepting responsibility for misrepresentations and breach of warranty.

As a result of significant losses on exposures to RMBS, including financial guarantee insurance policies and credit default swap contracts on credit default obligations of asset backed securities, Ambac Assurance’s statutory capital and surplus had been reduced significantly. Ambac Assurance continues to work to reduce exposures through commutations and other settlements, a process referred to as remediation.

Bond insurers including MBIA Inc. (MBI) with no new business are regarding remediation as an important consideration in reducing losses. Ambac last year said that if it was unable to meet enough cash it may file for bankruptcy. Cases like this, if they turn out in Ambac’s favor, would garner cash and reduce its future liabilities. However, this process involves considerable litigation and delay.

http://www.benzinga.com/88121/ambac-sues-credit-suisse-analy…
UPDATE 1-Las Vegas Monorail bankrupt; Ambac faces exposure

By Ciara Linnane

NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Las Vegas, the U.S. gambling mecca whose neon-lighted fortunes have been dimmed by the weak economy, has suffered another blow with a bankruptcy filing by its monorail operator.

The Las Vegas Monorail Co, the not-for-profit company that operates the 3.9-mile (6.3 km) elevated service that connects several hotels on the Las Vegas Strip and the city's convention center, filed with federal bankruptcy court on Wednesday.

"The decline in the monorail's operations is tied directly to the decrease in gaming revenues in Nevada, and particularly along the Las Vegas Strip," the chief executive of Las Vegas Monorail, Curtis Myles, said in a court filing.

Ridership "has not met projections formed prior to the economic collapse," he added.

The monorail is expected to keep operating during the bankruptcy process.

The bankruptcy filing exposes bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N) to a potential $1.16 billion of liabilities, the filing said.

Ambac Assurance Corp insured $451 million of tax-exempt bonds used to finance Las Vegas Monorail's purchase of the rail line from MGM Grand-Bally's Monorail LLC in 2000, according to the filing with the federal bankruptcy court in Las Vegas.

According to the bankruptcy petition, Las Vegas Monorail has between $10 million and $50 million of assets, and between $500 million and $1 billion of debt.

The recession has reduced the number of visitors to Las Vegas' casinos and hurt convention attendance, and the city's real estate market has suffered one of the steepest declines in the country.

Ambac said if Las Vegas Monorail company stops making payments on some senior "first tier" bonds, "total exposure under (Ambac's) policy and surety will be approximately $1.16 billion."

The company declined to comment on whether it has set aside reserves to cover any losses.

"But this is something we have been monitoring for a very long time," said Peter Poillon, managing director of investor relations for Ambac.

Ambac asked the court to dismiss Las Vegas Monorail's Chapter 11 petition for reorganization and refile its case under Chapter 9, a part of the federal bankruptcy code that applies to municipalities.

Ambac and rivals have struggled to write new business since losing their "triple-A" credit ratings in 2008 in the wake of losses linked to risky debt and securitizations.

Last year, Ambac warned it could run out of cash and be forced to seek bankruptcy protection.

In the court filing, Myles said Las Vegas Monorail since 2004 has used proceeds from the initial financing and debt service reserves to keep operating, but has now depleted those resources.

He said that while revenue was sufficient to cover operations, it was never sufficient to service debt.

The case is In re Las Vegas Monorail Co, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Nevada, No. 10-10464. (Additional reporting by Jon Stempel; Editing by Leslie Adler)


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1420672520100114
Ambac Financial Group Inc: Insider Trading and Stock Options
Other transactions:

Transaction
& Date Reported
Date Company Symbol Insider
Relationship Shares
Traded Average
Price Total
Amount Shares
Ownership Filing
2010-02-01
Tax Withholding 2010-02-04
11:28 am AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK BIENSTOCK GREGG L
(Senior Vice President) 211 $0.74 $156 79,118
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
3:47 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Wallis David W
(President and CEO
Director) 1,193 $0.69 $823 428,513
(Direct) View
2010-01-28
Tax Withholding(A) 2010-02-02
3:31 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Wallis David W
(President and CEO
Director) 3,233 $0.69 $2,231 429,706
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:57 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK BIENSTOCK GREGG L
(Senior Vice President) 1,398 $0.69 $965 79,329
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:55 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK DOYLE KEVIN J
(Senior Vice President) 1,290 $0.69 $890 60,439
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:53 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Adams Diana
(Senior Managing Director) 406 $0.69 $280 18,802
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Option Award
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:51 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Stevens Timothy J
(Senior Managing Director) 14,479 $0.69 $9,991 30,413
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Option Award
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:49 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Trick David
(Senior Managing Director, CFO) 19,803 $0.69 $13,664 36,608
(Direct) View
2010-01-29
Option Award
Tax Withholding 2010-02-02
2:46 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Eisman Robert Bryan
(Senior Managing Director) 20,570 $0.69 $14,193 48,137
(Direct) View
2010-01-28
Tax Withholding 2010-02-01
12:54 pm AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC ABK Wallis David W
(President and CEO
Director) 2,988 $0.69 $2,062 429,951
(Direct) View
02/11/10 - 06:17 PM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ambac Financial Group's(ABK Quote) largest stockholder, Third Avenue Management, announced Wednesday in a 13-G filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it had disposed of 65% of its holding by Jan. 31.

This disposal of 17.5 million shares, reducing TAM's holding from 9.31% to 3.24%, is very revealing. Should the smaller stockholders, with "blind faith" in the recovery of Ambac, be concerned?

The timing of the sale is a little odd, coming just before the fourth-quarter earnings release, due in early March. Although TAM may have been disposing of the stock since October, at least 2.9 million shares were sold in January.

What's even more interesting is that TAM has a very low turnover of its $4 billion in investments, so selling such a large stake as the markets struggle to recover could have deeper meaning.

TAM says on its Web site that "one proven value philosophy guides each of our investments. We seek to invest in safe companies that are cheaply priced."

TAM cites strong finances, competent management, understandable business and attractive growth prospects as key criteria, among others, for investments. It appears that Ambac no longer meets the criteria even though TAM has already taken a tremendous loss on its position.

Most concerning of all is that former Ambac CFO and senior managing director of capital markets and structured credit, Tom Gandolfo, is a senior analyst for TAM. He has an intimate knowledge of Ambac and its finances and must have been advising TAM since he joined in 2008. If he was unable to see a good reason for TAM to hold on to the stock, why should anyone else?

Perhaps stockholders should take heart from the fact that TAM still holds 3.24% of the stock. Citigroup(C Quote), with 6.26%, is now the somewhat reluctant new largest stockholder. Most of its position, according to a Citigroup source, was taken as a result of a CDO transaction in late 2008. Perhaps this was how part of the $850 million settlement reached with Ambac was paid?


Other positive signs are that Ambac recently adopted a tax-benefit preservation, shareholder-rights plan designed to protect Ambac's $4.5 billion of net operating losses. Why would it do that if it knew it was in its death throes, as some believe?

A restructuring effort could be good news for Ambac. Clearly, the Wisconsin insurance regulator would have been involved in the discussions leading up to an appointment and therefore tacit agreement could be deduced. Look for an announcement during the conference call after the earnings release.

Unfortunately, there are two unresolved issues. One is the fourth-quarter results. How the group is doing will not be entirely clear until after the filing of the Ambac Assurance financial statements. These will not take place until after the earnings are released, and they contain extremely important financial data, including the crucial minimum capital and surplus numbers.

The second is that Ambac still needs to answer the delisting threat from the New York Stock Exchange. It is very clear that Ambac cannot reach the required standard by the end of February, needing a 100% increase in price to an average price of over $1.25.

That means that either it hopes the price will rebound after the earnings are released and plans for restructuring announced, or it will have to do a reverse split on the stock. One other alternative, making the rounds, is that Blackstone(BX Quote) will be negotiating the sale of the group in its entirety. That appears unlikely, although a sale for stock is feasible.

Unfortunately, restructuring, reverse splits and a sale do not necessarily do much for the shareholder value, even if they save the company. The best hope from these actions, in the short term, would be a large pop as the news breaks.

The stock has fallen 9.1% this week after a 7.1% recovery was mounted on Thursday. It is speculative for a reason.

Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10680252/1/ambacs-biggest-hol…
Technical Analysis
Back to SmarTrend News & Market Analysis
Ambac Financial: The Trend Continues Down (ABK) - 2/18/2010 1:04:53 PM

By Chip Brian, SmarTrend Analytics Team

SmarTrend identified a Downtrend for Ambac Financial (NYSE:ABK) on January 25, 2010 at $0.72. In approximately 3 weeks, Ambac Financial has returned 9.7% as of today's recent price of $0.65.

Ambac Financial is currently below its 50-day moving average of $0.77 and below its 200-day moving average of $1.11. Look for these moving averages to decline to confirm the company's downward momentum.

SmarTrend will continue to scan these moving averages and a number of other proprietary indicators for any changes in momentum for shares of Ambac Financial.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/sl/30121
02/18/10 - 12:12 PM EST

Ambac Rolls Monorail Dice in Las Vegas


LAS VEGAS (TheStreet) -- Struggling bond insurer Ambac (ABK Quote) went to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the District of Nevada on Wednesday to ask that the judge declare that the Las Vegas Monorail Company, or LVMC, is ineligible for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy.


Ambac is also arguing that Las Vegas Monorail acted illegally in operating a Bank of America (BAC Quote) account.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Bruce Markell is expected to rule towards the end of next week. He gave no indication as to how he might rule. William P. Smith, a partner in the Chicago offices of McDermott Will & Emery LLP, represented Ambac. He said that the judge was "interested and engaged" and that he is "confident that the judge understood the issues and am cautiously optimistic that he will find in our favor."

The case has high stakes as Ambac has a potential $1.1 billion liability in bond guarantees. Wells Fargo (WFC Quote) is the LVMC trustee. Bank of America is sitting on all the cash but has no other interest in the case.

In a session that lasted over ten hours, Smith contended that LVMC is ineligible for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

This is primarily because Ambac contends that LVMC is an "instrumentality of the state", in other words a state agency, as declared in the 2000 tax certificate and agreement between the Director of the State of Nevada Department of Business and Industry and LVMC.

Arguments focused on the nature of the company under this definition with Smith arguing for Ambac that you cannot elect to be an instrumentality for tax purposes and not for others.


The State of Nevada supports the position taken by LVMC. In an interview, with TheStreet.com, Smith expressed that he was "surprised that the state took a position and is backing away from the position at the time the bond was issued."

Whether the judge rules for Ambac or not on the bankruptcy issue, it does not change the substance of the $1.1 billion liability, according to Ambac's lawyer. The point is how the debt would be worked out. Chapter 9 would provide the creditors and Ambac more control over the assets and cash flows.

It was these assets that were the subject of the afternoon arguments. Ambac's laywer maintains that this is a "manufactured crisis," arguing that the train is running up and down the track and that it is generating revenues in excess of the operational expenses.

According to Smith, there is $2 million in the BOA account and less than $20,000 in the Wells Fargo account. Wells Fargo and Ambac maintain that all proceeds from train operations are supposed to be placed into the trustee account and that LVMC continues to siphon the cash directly from the trains into the BOA account, even in bankruptcy.

This is important because the trustee and Ambac argue they have liens and control over all the cash collateral that passes through the Wells Fargo account and that the cash in the BOA account is in jeopardy.

Wells Fargo and Ambac are asking the judge to agree that the opening and operating of the BOA account was in breach of the financing agreement. They want orders granted regards the contents of the account and future revenues in favor of the trustee.

Control over the cash generated by the LVMC is at the core of the bankruptcy petition. Both Ambac and the trustee object to unnecessary expenses, such as trips to China taken by the LVMC CEO, directors monthly fees of $5,000 and the hiring of a lobbyist. The trustee has to approve expenditures and Ambac wants it that way.

Ambac claims that more than $3.3 million went through the BOA account prior to the bankruptcy filing and that these monies could have been used to mitigate the $16.8 million paid out by Ambac. Any reduction in the amounts paid by Ambac would, of course, help the insurer.

Ultimately, fortunately for Ambac, there are no early payment event triggers and so the effect of any losses and the impact on cash flow will be spread over 40 years. No matter the decision, the LVMC will be making the July interest payment of around $9.5 million on the Tier 1 bonds, according to Smith.

The risk for Ambac on this Las Vegas trip is very low; the odds are good and the potential gain is substantial over a period of years. It will be hoping that what happens in Vegas doesn't stay there.

The stock rose 18%, or 11 cents, to 71 cents on Wednesday as volume grew and rumors of a potential settlement swirled. Shares were dropping back in early trading Thursday, losing 8%, or 6 cents, to 65 cents.

Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10684405/1/ambac-rolls-monora…
Feb 19, 2010 (Wall Street Horizon via COMTEX) --

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (

ABK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)


Expected next earnings release:

Announcement date: 2/25/2010 - Before Market

Earnings Quarter: Q4




Announcement Status: Unconfirmed


For full details on Ambac Financial Group (ABK) ABK. Ambac Financial Group (ABK) has Short Term PowerRatings at TradingMarkets. Details on Ambac Financial Group (ABK) Short Term PowerRatings is available at This Link.


http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/abk_ambac-fin…
SmarTrend Detects Continued Selling Pressure in Shares of Ambac Financial (ABK) - 2/25/2010 10:25:20 AM

By Chip Brian, SmarTrend Analytics Team

SmarTrend identified a Downtrend for Ambac Financial (NYSE:ABK) on January 25, 2010 at $0.72. In approximately 1 month, Ambac Financial has returned 5.6% as of today's recent price of $0.68.

Ambac Financial is currently below its 50-day moving average of $0.75 and below its 200-day moving average of $1.09. Look for these moving averages to decline to confirm the company's downward momentum.

SmarTrend will continue to scan these moving averages and a number of other proprietary indicators for any changes in momentum for shares of Ambac Financial.


http://www.mysmartrend.com/sl/31216
press release

Feb. 24, 2010, 5:20 p.m. EST · Recommend · Post:
Ambac Fourth Quarter Results Scheduled to Be Released on March 16, 2010

NEW YORK, Feb 24, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Ambac Financial Group, Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!abk/quotes/nls/abk (ABK 0.67, -.00, -0.15%) (Ambac) announced that it will release its fourth quarter 2010 results on March 16, 2010, after the close of business.

About Ambac

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has a Caa2 rating (developing outlook) from Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and a CC rating (outlook developing) from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK).

SOURCE: Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ambac-fourth-quarter-result…
Ambac Main Unit Posts Loss; Premiums Fall
By Gavin Magor 03/04/10 - 05:00 AM EST



Stock quotes in this article: ABK , MBI , RDN , AIG

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ambac Assurance, the main subsidiary of beleaguered insurer Ambac Financial Group(ABK), posted a $311.6 million fourth-quarter loss as premium income fell and underwriting reverted to a loss.



The subsidiary's loss is a blow for Ambac Financial, which reports earnings March 16. Ambac Assurance is under scrutiny from Wisconsin's insurance regulator, who has put capital and surplus targets on the company. Ambac Financial's shares are trading at 68 cents, down from 81 cents at the beginning of the year.

TheStreet.com estimates that Ambac Assurance required about $184.5 million in capital and surplus to meet Wisconsin's regulations as of Dec. 31. Following a $452 million reduction in assets during the fourth quarter, Ambac exceeded that amount by an estimated $440.5 million.

Ambac's business is going backward. The insurer posted a profit of $925 million in the third quarter, helped by investments. The fourth-quarter loss included a $451.2 million tax gain. An additional disappointment for investors is that there were no gains or losses on commutations during the fourth quarter.

Terminations of agreements with several reinsurers including Radian(RDN) and MBIA(MBI) resulted in $316.7 of pre-tax income for Ambac Assurance during 2009.

Cash and cash equivalents decreased by $439.2 million to $625.4 million in the fourth quarter. The balance sheet reflects tax receivables of $425.8 million, indicating the insurer didn't receive the benefit of cash reported as a refund in the third quarter.

Premium income fell 5% to $182.5 million, and losses rose 2.9% to $221.4 million in the quarter. Net underwriting losses totaled $141.7 million compared with a $290 million profit in the previous three months.

The surplus, as regards policyholders, dropped to $801.9 million from $855.6 million.

Cash flow was negative. The company recorded $636.9 million in negative operational cash flow in the fourth quarter. Net cash from investments was $175.9 million compared with $918.5 million in the third quarter.

Ambac Assurance's estimated impairment losses climbed 15% to $3.8 billion as of Dec. 31, driven by deterioration in its credit derivative portfolio. The increase includes an offset by the commutation of eight collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, totaling $8.6 billion for a net cash payment by Ambac Assurance of $1.4 billion. Twenty additional CDO transactions were downgraded to junk during 2009.
ZWEITE SEITE:

Higher impairment losses indicate the company expects additional problems in residential mortgage-backed securities. Ambac incurred $125.3 million in subprime-related losses during 2009. It retained $5.9 billion of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities as of Dec. 31.




Ambac Assurance has $1.1 billion in loss reserves, a reduction of $22.3 million from 2008. The insurer suffered $1.4 billion in losses during 2009 that were attributable to residential mortgage-backed securities.

Ambac Assurance says it should be able to recover $1.9 billion against residential mortgage-backed securities claims. Most of the recoveries will occur during 2012, Ambac says.

Ambac Assurance guarantees CDOs for Ambac Credit Products with $43.3 billion outstanding, a reduction of $10.6 billion from 2008.

None of Ambac's credit-derivative transactions include ratings-based collateral-posting triggers or otherwise require Ambac to put up collateral. That's what caused significant problems for American International Group (AIG) as its credit rating dropped and collateral calls were made.

-- Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.
Reason for optimism
Developments involving General Growth, MGM Mirage show Wall Street looking to better times
Fri, Mar 5, 2010 (3 a.m.)
Las Vegas Sun

We see signs on Wall Street that capital will start flowing again and, hopefully, that a good amount will make it to Las Vegas.

An outright bidding war has erupted for General Growth Properties, a big player in the Las Vegas economy with its vast land holdings and commercial developments in Summerlin and five shopping malls on and off the Strip.

This is a sign that the company could emerge from bankruptcy, recapitalized and ready to grow and invest again.

Although the recession has hurt Las Vegas resort operators, things will turn around and when they do General Growth looks to profit from its three trophy malls on the Strip: Fashion Show, Grand Canal Shoppes at the Venetian and the Shoppes at the Palazzo.

“For many years, the investing community failed to understand the real value of high-quality regional malls,” said Rich Moore, managing director at RBC Capital Markets in Solon, Ohio. “We’ve just gone through the worst recession in our history and these things are largely unscathed.”

It may take awhile for development to speed up in Summerlin, as the residential real estate market remains depressed by foreclosures. But in time, Summerlin too is likely to emerge stronger from the General Growth bankruptcy.

Also in recent days, banks and Wall Street players agreed to extend a big chunk of MGM Mirage’s debt maturities — in effect refinancing $3.6 billion in loans.

Gaming analyst Bill Lerner of Union Gaming Group called the agreement “critically important” for MGM Mirage because without it, the company would have a hard time meeting debt payments in the wake of the slowdown on the Strip.

The deal is a significant long-term vote of confidence in Las Vegas’ largest employer and another sign that Wall Street is looking past the current recessionary environment and toward the future.
Mar 5, 2010
5:10 PM


Credit Spreads Suggest Ambac Headed for Bankruptcy
Posted by Tiernan Ray

Is Ambac Financial (ABK) headed for a bankruptcy over the municipal bond crisis?

That’s the contention today from DebtWire, which says credit default spreads have widened for Ambac based on the belief that its main operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, will go into receivership later this year, and that could decimate the revenues the holding company, ABK, receives from Ambac Assurance.

Ambac Assurance is a guarantor of public finances, among other things, and is has been under severe pressure during the credit crunch as state and local finances are strained.

Investors had previously speculated that Ambac might be forced by regulators to stop paying on insurance claims of municipalities, but now some credit default swap traders believe the government may place the Assurance operation into receivership. As DebtWire explains it, citing anonymous sources:

Two investors who said that they placed a low probability on receivership in November indicated in interviews this week that they believe the chance of receivership has increased. Both sources cited fear of a municipal default epidemic and the opacity of Ambac’s finances as contributing factors. “The logic is that the holdco wouldn’t survive a receivership at the opco.”

Ambac shares today rose about 4%, or 5%, to 72 cents.


http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/
Mffais.com
Published: Friday, February 12, 2010

LONG BEACH, CA (Mffais.com) -- Citigroup Inc Added More shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK). The number of shares affected was 962,292 which was a 6.42% change from the 14,972,645 number of shares. The ending number of shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK) owned by Citigroup Inc at the time reported was 15,934,937, these transaction(s) occurred on/as-of 2009-12-31 but information regarding them was just made public today.

http://www.mffais.com/abk
Bond Insurers Seek $10 Billion From Banks

By Gavin Magor 03/22/10 - 05:00 AM EDT

Bond insurers including Ambac Financial Group(ABK), Assured Guarantee(AGO) and MBIA(MBI) anticipate recovering more than twice as much as they did in 2008, when the financial crisis triggered insurance payments to units of the largest commercial and investment banks, which received bailouts from the government. Insurers recovered $4.2 billion in 2008.

Ambac is pushing to get $2.6 billion, $1.9 billion of which stems from residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS, according to filings. Assured Guarantee reported $994.5 million, and MBIA $3 billion, including $1.9 billion related to RMBS, the companies said in recently released 2009 financial statements.

As the credit crunch shook the financial system in mid-2008, bond insurers Ambac and MBIA paid billions of dollars to banks that had bought policies. Soon after, they suffered downgrades by credit-rating agencies, worsening the pain. Bond insurers typically operate on a pay-on-demand basis, leading to disputes over eligibility of payouts lasting long after the payments have been made.

The mortgage crisis and downgrades kept Ambac and MBIA from selling policies, leading them to the brink of bankruptcy. Ambac is still struggling to ensure it has sufficient money to operate, though it has enough to satisfy insurance regulators. MBIA is in a slightly better position.

Cash from the banks would provide a victory and a much-needed lifeline for the insurers.

The bond insurers have alleged that underwriting policies were deliberately ignored or changed. In addition, they say existing delinquent accounts or those whose collateral value was overstated are common. The banks disagree, saying insurers knew the situation. However, motions to dismiss the suits have been met with little success.

Bond insurers say they have strong cases against the banks. For now, they're focusing on well-capitalized big banks to recover cash. The insurers have completed reviews of the underlying loans and collateral they had insured, concluding that many of the transactions never met agreed-upon standards.

Still, bond insurers' auditors, as with MBIA, caution that "the uncertainty inherent in the estimation of the financial effects of this matter is substantial." In other words, the insurers may get a lot less than they're hoping for.

The insurers now are demanding that banks recompense them. The banks are playing hardball, resisting the negotiating process and, in several cases, forcing the insurers to file lawsuits.


MBIA believes it can make recoveries because of the strength of its existing contract claims and the improving financial strength of RMBS issuers. In addition, Freddie Mac(FRE) has recieved "substantial'' amounts in similar claims, and the New York Supreme Court has denied motions to dismiss claims in at least two cases. Moreover, MBIA claims that repurchase reserves have been established by RMBS sellers and servicers to cover future obligations.

A delay in settlements favors the banks because they can continue to generate reserves and strengthen their balance sheets, retain cash flow and, all the while, aim for negotiated settlements.

Bond insurers, hungry for cash, might be prepared to settle for less to guarantee their survival. Waiting for their day in court could take three years, according to Ambac. Banks have little incentive to settle early. Also, because banks are, in some cases, stock holders of bond insurers, they would benefit from a rise in stock prices if insurers won lawsuits.

Citigroup owns millions of Ambac shares, while JPMorgan holds $19 million in Assured Guaranty stock. Credit Suisse(CS) holds $1.5 million in MBIA. Those are small amounts relative to the suits, but a substantial dollar value.

Ambac and MBIA, while continuing to review portfolios, have vowed to recover what they deem is theirs if additional irregularities are found and settlements can't be reached.

Banks and insurers probably will settle many of the claims. Unfortunately for the insurers, time is on the banks' side. That means the bond insurers will need to generate positive cash flows even as the residential mortgage-backed securities market is under strain. That may be an insurmountable problem.

-- Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla.


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10707089/1/bond-insurers-seek…
The Digital Newspaper

AMBAC Financial Group Inc (ABK) Stock
Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

The prospect of being one of the top 50 gainers on the NYSE is a shareholder’s dream, and those who invested in AMBAC Financial Group Inc (ABK) stock will be happy to hear that their AMBAC Financial Group Inc shares have made them a lot of money in the latest session of trading.
AMBAC Financial Group Inc

The AMBAC Financial Group Inc price currently stands at $0.76 – signifying a 0.06 increase over the previous day’s trading. The AMBAC Financial Group Inc (ABK) stock price increased by 8.5%, which officially qualified it as one of the day’s top 50 highest % increases among companies listed in the NYSE. The AMBAC Financial Group Inc shares also traded at a higher volume than they are generally accustomed to, with a total volume equaling 3583464 during the previous trading day.

If you happened to be one of the few who were actively trading ABK before the big AMBAC Financial Group Inc news hit, then hopefully you were on the right side of the exchange. If not, then there’s always going to be other winners in the NYSE, so as long as you have keen eye for picking out big risers!

What do you think of the AMBAC Financial Group Inc (ABK) stock price increase? Was it warranted, or is a 8.5% increase an overestimation of AMBAC Financial Group Inc’s value?

http://www.thedigitalnewspaper.com/ambac-financial-group-inc…
Municipal Bond Investors Represented by Bingham McCutchen Organize for Ambac Restructuring Discussions
March 22, 2010 05:17 PM Eastern Daylight Time


Municipal Bond Investors Represented by Bingham McCutchen Organize for Ambac Restructuring Discussions

HARTFORD, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A group of leading mutual fund companies represented by Bingham McCutchen has organized to ensure that holders of municipal bonds will be at the table and protected in any restructuring undertaken by Ambac after its announcement last week that it was delaying the filing of its annual Form 10-K as a result of “ongoing discussions” with financial institutions and the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin. The mutual fund companies manage over $20 billion in municipal bonds guaranteed by Ambac. The shareholders of the funds are the nation’s Main Street investors. The mutual fund companies are asking Ambac and the Commissioner to include them in the “ongoing discussions” and provide them with the same access to information that has been provided to other constituents. The mutual funds look forward to a productive and thorough dialogue with the Commissioner and Ambac on this extremely important project.

Bingham McCutchen LLP
Matthew Bashalany, 617-951-8063
matthew.bashalany@bingham.com


http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmV…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.194.334 von Aktientitan am 23.03.10 07:11:14Guten Morgen Titan!

wie schätzt Du den gestrigen Kursrutsch ein?

Vielen Dank
cura
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.220.009 von curacanne am 26.03.10 08:48:32Ich sagte "JA"...ähnliche Situation wie bei CIT !!!

Hier ist EXTREME VORSICHT geboten !!!


Market Roundup (ABK, DCI, IRDM, AAPL, GOOG)

http://www.benzinga.com/market-update/194910/market-roundup-…
Analyst Blog
Ambac Unit Faces Downgrades
By: Zacks Equity Research
March 26, 2010 | Comments: 0
Recommended this article (1)
ABK
Print Share

Yesterday, the rating agency Standard & Poor's slashed the rating of Ambac Assurance (“AAC”), a unit of Ambac Financial Group (ABK - Analyst Report), to “R” from “CC.” This move was fueled by the announcement of the Officer of Commissioner of Insurance (OCI) regarding the rehabilitation of AAC liabilities.

The OCI yesterday ordered AAC to create a segregated fund, which would contain $35 billion of the company’s liabilities on policies related to residential mortgage-backed securities and $29 billion on other credit derivatives and structured finance products. No claims will be made with respect to any policies under the segregated account until the rehabilitation plan is approved by the court, which might take six months. A moratorium on claims payment has been put to conserve Ambac’s reserves.

The regulatory intervention is meant to protect investors of municipal bond issues. Ambac Assurance has been under constant vigilance by the regulators with regard to capital and surplus targets. It has been hit by losses on investments as well as the insurance of structured financial products, reducing its claims paying capability. Recently, its estimation of future loss impairments has also increased significantly.

Ambac has been in trouble for quite some time. The company has suffered multiple rating downgrades since June 2008. The financial strength rating downgrades have adversely impacted Ambac’s ability to generate new business and have negatively affected its operating and financial results. Ambac CFO Sean Leonard resigned last November after the company was found guilty of misstating financial statements to hide the capital shortfall in order to avoid seizure by the regulators.

The rating of “R” is considered to be junk and below investment status and indicates the regulatory supervision on the company.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/32207/Ambac+Unit+Faces+Downg…
Ambac Unit Now Essentially Junk

March 26, 2010 | about: ABK
Yesterday, the rating agency Standard & Poor's slashed the rating of Ambac Assurance (“AAC”), a unit of Ambac Financial Group (ABK), to “R” from “CC.” This move was fueled by the announcement of the Officer of Commissioner of Insurance (OCI) regarding the rehabilitation of AAC liabilities.

The OCI yesterday ordered AAC to create a segregated fund, which would contain $35 billion of the company’s liabilities on policies related to residential mortgage-backed securities and $29 billion on other credit derivatives and structured finance products. No claims will be made with respect to any policies under the segregated account until the rehabilitation plan is approved by the court, which might take six months. A moratorium on claims payment has been put to conserve Ambac’s reserves.

The regulatory intervention is meant to protect investors of municipal bond issues. Ambac Assurance has been under constant vigilance by the regulators with regard to capital and surplus targets. It has been hit by losses on investments as well as the insurance of structured financial products, reducing its claims paying capability. Recently, its estimation of future loss impairments has also increased significantly.

Ambac has been in trouble for quite some time. The company has suffered multiple rating downgrades since June 2008. The financial strength rating downgrades have adversely impacted Ambac’s ability to generate new business and have negatively affected its operating and financial results. Ambac CFO Sean Leonard resigned last November after the company was found guilty of misstating financial statements to hide the capital shortfall in order to avoid seizure by the regulators.

The rating of “R” is considered to be junk and below investment status and indicates the regulatory supervision on the company.
Moody's cuts Ambac debt after regulators step in
Moody's downgrades Ambac debt after regulators step in to segregate toxic assets

On Friday March 26, 2010, 5:21 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut the senior unsecured debt of Ambac Financial Group Inc. to its lowest rating, after the bond insurer's major subsidiary was hit with regulatory action.

Moody's cut Ambac Financial to "C" from "Ca," its lowest rating above default.

However, the ratings agency places the below-investment-grade "Caa2" insurance financial strength ratings of the subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corp., on review for possible upgrade.

Moody's also placed the "Caa2" insurance financial strength ratings for Ambac Assurance UK Ltd. on review, with direction uncertain.

The changes were prompted by a move on Wednesday by Wisconsin insurance regulators to order Ambac Assurance to move about $63 billion in policies backing residential mortgage backed securities and other risky assets into a segregated account for rehabilitation. That separated the money-losing assets, which were costing Ambac about $120 million a month, from its profitable bond insurance business. Those payments were suspended until the regulators get a plan approved for dealing with the assets in the segregated account. Ambac set aside $2 billion to deal with the claims.

Ambac Assurance entered into a nonbinding agreement to commute all of its remaining collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities, another series of toxic assets.

"These actions are expected to improve the credit standing of AAC's senior unsecured policyholders by settling the insurer's most risky exposures, and effectively subordinating policyholders with outstanding claims," Moody's wrote.

The potential upgrade could result because Moody's insurance financial strength ratings addresses senior policy obligations residing within AAC's general account, but not the now-subordinated segregated account claims. However, potential lawsuits and Ambac Assurance's inability to write new business tempers the potential for an upgrade.

"During its review, Moody's will evaluate the full impact of the restructuring on AAC's financial strength, including the extent to which senior unsecured policyholders of the general account are truly insulated from segregated account losses."

The deal to settle the collateralized debt obligations, in which Ambac would pay $2.6 billion in cash and $2 billion in surplus notes is considered a distressed exchange by Moody's, because of the non-cash component and the size of the payments compared to the likely losses the CDOs would have generated.

The downgrade of the parent company's senior debt rating reflects the heightened risk of default and very low ultimate recover on the debt, whether through distressed exchange or potential bankruptcy proceedings.

Ambac Financial repeated a warning on Thursday that it may seek bankruptcy protection if it is unable to restructure more debt. It has no income coming in from Ambac Assurance, its main operating subsidiary, and enough cash to last only through March 2011. Moody's said, "It is unlikely that the holding company will be able to access operating company resources over a reasonable timeframe to satisfy its obligations."

Ambac shares closed Friday down 14 cents, or 21.3 percent, at 52 cents, a low for the last year. The once high-flying stock hasn't topped $2.09 in the past 52 weeks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Moodys-cuts-Ambac-debt-after-a…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.230.708 von Aktientitan am 28.03.10 09:09:07danke!:)
Bloomberg
Ambac Split Leaves Monorail Bond Default Probability (Update3)
March 29, 2010, 7:33 PM EDT



(Adds attempt to contact Las Vegas Monorail spokesman in the ninth paragraph.)

By Christine Richard and Darrell Preston

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Holders of bonds sold by the Las Vegas Monorail Co. likely won’t get their next payment due July 1 because the insurer, Ambac Financial Group Inc., won’t cover them.

The monorail, linking the city’s casinos, seeks to reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy and has minimal funds to cover its next scheduled debt disbursement of $9.6 million in July, Wells Fargo, the trustee for the bonds, said in a March 26 announcement. While Ambac guarantees payments of $1.2 billion for the monorail, its obligation has been transferred by Wisconsin insurance regulators to a segregated account that temporarily can’t honor claims, according to the filing.

The decision to halt payments on all troubled debt is “a remarkable development,” said Matt Fabian, a senior analyst with Municipal Market Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. “How can you trust any bond insurance policy if regulators take away any security backing that policy?”

The halt marks the first time that a regulator has raised the possibility that Ambac, which insures $256 billion of municipal bonds, may be unable to pay current municipal bond insurance policy claims to preserve reserves for future obligations, said Alan Schankel, managing director of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.

“This will staunch the bleeding and make sure there is money available in the future,” Schankel said, calling the series of transactions a “backdoor reorganization.”

State Takeover

Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner Sean Dilweg announced on March 26 that his office was taking over Ambac Assurance Corp. liabilities that included policies backing $35 billion in securities, many involving risky mortgages. Dilweg’s office ordered the handover as part of a so-called rehabilitation to keep the company afloat and forestall an “uncontrollable scramble for assets” among policyholders and counterparties.

“It therefore seems likely that Ambac will fail to honor claims against the surety bond and the bond insurance policy, which will result in a payment default on the first-tier bonds on July 1, 2010,” according to the monorail trustee’s statement.

First Policy

Ambac sold the industry’s first insurance policy on municipal debt in 1971, for a $650,000 bond of the Greater Juneau Borough Medical Arts Building in Alaska. For more than three decades bond insurers paid few claims. That track record was shattered when credit markets seized up during the worst credit crunch since the Great Depression. Claims paid by Ambac on bonds backed by souring home loans have threatened to deplete the company’s capital.

Gavin Wilkinson, a Wells Fargo spokesman, didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment. A message left for Kristen Hansen, spokeswoman for the Las Vegas Monorail, wasn’t immediately returned.

“Up until now the assumption was that regulators and bond insurers were going to be very careful to preserve payouts to municipal bondholders,” said James Spiotto, a partner with Chapman & Cutler in Chicago and an expert in municipal bankruptcy.

Any policies on which Ambac expects significant claims have been segregated, Ambac spokesman Peter Poillon said in an interview. A complete list of the bond insurer’s obligations taken over by regulators has yet to be released, and may include more guarantees on municipal debt, he said.

Negotiate Settlements

Ambac also said it plans to negotiate deals with various financial institutions to tear up contracts on all of the collateralized debt obligations backed by mortgage securities it guarantees in exchange for an upfront payment.

Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ambac Financial Group to its lowest non-investment rating of C after the announcement and placed its Caa2 rating on Ambac Assurance, the bond insurance unit, under review for a possible upgrade.

“These actions are expected to improve the credit standing of Ambac Assurance Corp.’s senior unsecured policyholders by settling the insurer’s most risky exposures, and effectively subordinating policy holdings with outstanding claims,” Moody’s said.

--Editors: Michael Weiss, Walid el-Gabry

To contact the reporters on this story: Christine Richard in New York at crichard5@bloomberg.net; Darrell Preston in Dallas at dpreston@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net;
Sponsored Links
April 02, 2010 11:44 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Provides Questions and Answers Addressing Recent Actions Taken by Wisconsin Regulator

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) announced today that it has provided “Questions and Answers” related to the recent action taken by the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (OCI) with regard to the Segregated Account of Ambac Assurance Corporation. Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) is the principal operating insurance company of Ambac. The Segregated Account is a separate insurer from AAC under Wisconsin insurance law. The Q&A can be found on Ambac’s web site at http://www.ambac.com/qanda.html. AAC policyholders should also be aware that OCI has established a web site at www.ambacpolicyholders.com that contains official filings, background information and a Q&A for policyholders.

About Ambac

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has a Caa2 rating from Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and an R (regulatory intervention) financial strength rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK).



Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
Investors:
Peter Poillon, 212-208-3222
ppoillon@ambac.com
April 8, 2010, 5:53 p.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Ambac shares jump after quarterly results


By Alistair Barr


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group shares /quotes/comstock/13*!abk/quotes/nls/abk (ABK 0.64, +0.03, +5.32%) jumped 17% in Thursday's evening trading session after the struggling bond insurer reported quarterly results. Ambac said fourth-quarter net income was $558.1 million, or $1.93 a share. That compares to a net loss of $2.34 billion, or $8.14 a share, in the same period a year earlier. Ambac shares climbed 17% to 75 cents in after-hours action.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ambac-shares-jump-after-qua…
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Trade ABK now with Click here to find out more!
(RTTNews) - Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK: News ), Thursday reported a profit for the fourth quarter, compared to a net loss last year, helped by a tax benefit, lower loss and loss expenses, and unrealized mark-to-market gains in the credit derivatives portfolio. Following the news, the Ambac shares gained more than 51% in the after-hours trading.

The New York-based company posted net income of $558.1 million or $1.93 per share for the fourth quarter, compared to a net loss of $2.3 billion or $8.14 per share in the prior year quarter.

The year-ago result reflected a significant negative net change in fair value of credit derivatives, higher loss and loss adjustment expenses and a large increase in the deferred tax asset valuation allowance.

Fourth quarter total revenues were $566.60 million, compared to negative revenues of $202.24 million in the same quarter last year.

Net premiums earned for the fourth quarter decreased 19% to $184.4 million from $228.1 million earned in the year-ago quarter. Accelerated premiums fell 45% to $44.8 million from $81.2 million in the previous year quarter.

Excluding accelerated premiums, normal net premiums earned were $139.6 million, compared to $146.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Net investment income, excluding variable interest entities, grew 8% to $118.7 million from $109.5 in the prior year quarter, due to an increase in the average yield of the portfolio as the mix of securities shifted from primarily tax-exempt to a greater percentage of taxable securities.


Other-than-temporary impairment losses in the financial guarantee investment portfolio were $118.1 million in the fourth quarter, compared to other-than-temporary impairment losses of $66.0 million a year ago.

The net change in fair value of credit derivatives, which comprises realized gains/(losses) and other settlements from credit derivatives and unrealized gains/(losses) on credit derivatives, was a gain of $133.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to a loss of $594.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2008.

Net unrealized gains on credit derivative contracts were $781.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to net unrealized gains amounting to $394.1 million in the fourth quarter 2008.

Total net loss and loss expenses eased to $385.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 from $916.4 million in the prior year quarter.

Ambac last month delayed filing its annual report due to a regulatory action. Wisconsin insurance regulators came forward to take control of about $63 billion in toxic assets, mostly policies related to residential mortgage-backed securities, held by Ambac's subsidiary.


http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1264672
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.299.923 von Aktientitan am 09.04.10 09:30:44Ambac last month delayed filing its annual report due to a regulatory action. Wisconsin insurance regulators came forward to take control of about $63 billion in toxic assets, mostly policies related to residential mortgage-backed securities, held by Ambac's subsidiary.

Warum und aus welchem Grund genau haben die für die Verzögerung gesorgt?
Wie schätzt Du die Chancen für eine besseres Rating und damit einer besseren Möglichkeit fürs Neugeschäft ein?
Schon mal Danke
& Gute Nacht
Anubis
Holy Short-Squeeze, Batman!

Posted on 04/12/10 at 11:04am by Michael J. Zerinskas

Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) reported that they swung to a Q4 profit Friday, and the shares jumped 70% in reaction; yes, you read that right, 70%. What is even more baffling is that that action is continuing this morning with the shares up ANOTHER 50% today. The stock is currently trading $1.63. Options are heating up across the board. The April and May $1.00, 1.50, & 2.00 options are trading heavily, much of the action above open interest. Options buying is trickling into August and November as well.

From a technical perspective, Ambac Financial Group comes into resistance around $2.00, which it may reach be the end of the day the way this thing has been trading. Tread carefully here; you better be fast to play this game.

The put/call ratio is currently 0.15, signaling bullish options buying with conviction.

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/218082/holy…
13.04.2010


Ambac-Comeback: Der Wahnsinn geht weiter

Thorsten Küfner
Der Aktienkurs des von der Finanzkrise stark gebeutelten Anleihenversicherers Ambac hat sich im gestrigen Handel mehr als verdoppelt. Bereits am Freitag hatten die Papiere des Konzerns deutlich zugelegt, nachdem Ambac der Turnaround geglückt war.

Die Aktien des Anleiheversicherers Ambac stellen derzeit alle anderen Finanzaktien deutlich in den Schatten: Allein im gestrigen Handel konnten sich die Papiere des von der Finanzkrise stark angeschlagenen Konzerns mehr als verdoppeln. Bereits am Freitag verteuerten sich die Ambac-Anteilscheine deutlich. Grund für das fulminante Comeback ist die Rückkehr Ambacs in die Gewinnzone. Im vierten Quartal 2009 verdiente der staatlich gestützte Monoliner 1,83 Dollar je Aktie beziehungsweise rund 560 Millionen Dollar - im Vorjahreszeitraum hatte Ambac pro Anteilschein noch ein Minus von 8,14 Dollar oder 2,34 Milliarden Dollar ausweisen müssen.


Nur für hartgesottene Zocker

Die Aktie von Ambac ist nur etwas für hartgesottene Zocker. Denn noch stecken immense Risiken in den Büchern des Monoliners, der zum 31.12. 2009 sogar ein negatives Eigenkapital von 1,6 Milliarden Dollar ausweisen musste. Ende des vergangenen Jahres warnte Ambac bereits vor seiner drohenden Insolvenz. Anleger, die mitzocken wollen, sollten dies unbedingt nur mit sehr geringen Beträgen und dabei stets Stoppkurse setzen.

Attraktiver - vor allem aufgrund der geringeren Risiken - erscheint hier der Turnaround-Kandidat Allied Irish Banks (siehe unter: Allied Irish Banks: 50 Prozent in zwei Wochen).

http://www.deraktionaer.de/xist4c/web/Ambac-Comeback--Der-Wa…
Analyst Reiterates Bearish View on Ambac
By Michael Baron 04/13/10 - 04:35 PM EDT


NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The extreme volatility in shares of Ambac Financial Group(ABK) Tuesday prompted JPMorgan analyst Andrew Wessel to reiterate his stance that the stock has no value, although he did add a slight disclaimer to his bearish view.
>>>Analysis: Ambac, at $3.39, Is Still A Penny Stock

Wessel rates Ambac at underweight and as stated in his note to clients, he has "for some time" asserted that the company's equity is worthless. But he did caution against taking a short position at this time because of the wild gyrations in the stock since it reported its fourth-quarter results last week.

"We believe any investment in ABK shares at this time would be highly speculative, although we still believe a short in ABK equity will generate attractive long-term returns," he writes. "Basically we feel the near-term volatility may not be worth the eventual long-term pay-off from a short."

An Ambac spokesperson wasn't immediately available for comment.

Ambac shares closed at a session-low of $1.62, down 28%, on Tuesday but it ranged as high as $3.39 earlier in the day. Volume reached an incredible 717 million, well beyond the issue's trailing three-month daily average churn of 21.1 million. Since reporting a fourth-quarter profit of $558.1 million, or $1.93 a share, on April 8, largely because of a $472 million tax benefit, the stock had jumped 250% to $2.25 from 64 cents through Monday's closing bell. A massive short squeeze may be a contributing factor to the run-up as NYSE data on short interest showed the stock was one of the 25 most-shorted issues on the Big Board as of March 15.

Ambac has been in run-off mode since the credit bubble burst as its main Ambac Assurance financial guaranty insurance unit hasn't written a significant amount of business since November 2007, according to the company's SEC filings, including no new business in 2009. The company also made a point in its 10-K last week of once again mentioned the possibility of pursuing a prepackaged bankruptcy plan, a possibility it first raised in the 10-Q for the third quarter it filed in November.

In his note to clients, Wessel said Ambac's fourth-quarter profit and subsequent disclosures in the company's 10-K filing hadn't changed his opinion on the value of Ambac equity. Of particular note for Wessel was the company's admission in its 10-K that its operating company -- the public parent that receives dividends from the insurance business -- could decide to stop paying interest on its debt prior to the third quarter of this year.

"This would cause a default on the HoldCo debt, and thus likely lead to a complete loss for all shareholders," Wessel writes, adding later that an event of default "cause all of its insured contracts in CDS [credit default swap] form to call for accelerated payment," and create "the equivalent of a bank run on the remaining capital" in the operating company.
Wessel also believes the plan of the Wisconsin insurance regulator that serves as Ambac's main regulatory authority to split the company's municipal and structured finance policies into separate accounts will be "materially dilutive" to equity holders as it will require Ambac's operating company to issue a $2 billion negatively amortizing secured note as well as an undetermined amount of additional surplus notes; all of which would be senior to equity in the company's capital structure.

Without dividends from its units, Wessel estimates the holding company would likely default on its debt in the third quarter of 2011.

--Written by Michael Baron in New York.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10724960/2/analyst-reiterates…
April 13, 2010, 6:05 p.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Ambac shares double as investors bet on split benefits
Stock reverses after J.P. Morgan analysts say bond insurer has no equity


By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ambac Financial Group shares have more than doubled in the past three trading sessions on heavy volume as investors bet on the potential benefits of a recent regulatory effort to split the bond insurer's toxic assets from the rest of its business.

That rally took a punishing breather on Tuesday though, after J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note to clients that Ambac has no equity value.

"Any investment in Ambac shares at this time is highly speculative, although we still believe a short in Ambac equity will generate attractive long-term returns," Andrew Wessel, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, wrote in the note.

Ambac shares /quotes/comstock/13*!abk/quotes/nls/abk (ABK 1.62, -0.63, -28.00%) slumped 28% to close at $1.62 Tuesday as more than 700 million shares changed hands. The average weekly trading volume is less than 75 million, according to FactSet Research.

Still, the stock is up more than 150% in the past three trading sessions. The rally began last week after Ambac reported a fourth-quarter net profit, mostly driven by a large tax benefit. However, the surge may be driven by optimism about what will be left of the insurer after regulators complete their reorganization of the company.

Last month, state insurance regulators unveiled a plan to seize part of Ambac's main insurance business, Ambac Assurance, to protect hundreds of billions of dollars in guarantees on municipal bonds. Read about Ambac's 'amputation.'

Wisconsin's Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, or OCI, seized the part of Ambac Assurance that guarantees residential mortgage-backed securities and other securities that have been hit hard by the real-estate meltdown and financial crisis.
A time to hedge

If you're long-term bullish on a lot of stocks, you might want to find ways to hedge that exposure. Consider betting against BlackBerry maker Research In Motion, according to Cody Willard.

The plan aims to slice off Ambac's toxic exposures, leaving it strong enough to stand behind more than $300 billion worth of other guarantees -- mainly in the municipal-bond market.

The Wisconsin regulator will likely settle the guarantees on toxic assets at large discounts, partly because counterparties have already written down the value of these exposures, Sean Egan, president of rating agency Egan-Jones Ratings, said in an interview Tuesday.

Counterparties will likely try to challenge the reorganization, but will probably struggle because they will be battling against the decision of a state insurance regulator, which carries more legal weight, he added.

The remaining Ambac business will be left guaranteeing less-risky muni bonds and won't be exposed to huge losses from the housing market meltdown, Egan explained.

"It's a huge, huge positive," he said. "There'll be something for equity holders. Whether or not this will turn into a viable future business is another matter."

Egan compared Ambac's situation to a homeowner with two houses. One is worth $100,000 but has a $150,000 mortgage on it. The other is worth $100,000 with a $70,000 home loan. Together, the houses are worth $200,000 and the debt is $220,000, leaving $20,000 of negative equity.

"What if someone came along and said we'll take the underwater asset off your hands and leave you with the other one where you only owe $70,000?" Egan said. "Your net worth would suddenly go to a positive $30,000 from a negative $20,000."

That's essentially what the Wisconsin insurance regulator has done for Ambac, Egan said.
'Bank run'

However, that may not end up helping Ambac common stock holders.

Ambac is battling to avoid an event of default because that would trigger accelerated payments on all its guarantee contracts that were written in the form of credit default swaps, J.P. Morgan's Wessel explained Tuesday.

"This would lead to the equivalent of a bank run on the remaining capital" at Ambac's main insurance subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, the analyst wrote.

"The Wisconsin insurance regulator is attempting to prevent this outcome by affecting a split of the municipal and structured finance policies in the Ambac insurance company to try and protect policyholders to the best degree possible," Wessel added.

This may be difficult. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said March 26 that the seizure by regulators of part of Ambac Assurance was a bankruptcy credit event.

Ambac Financial, the holding company, also has $142.5 million of debt that it may not be able to repay without dividends from the subsidiary, Ambac Assurance, J.P. Morgan's Wessel also noted.

Dividends are highly unlikely, so Ambac management may decide to default on its debt before the third quarter of 2010, as the company stated in a recent regulatory filing, the analyst said. Or the company could enter into a pre-packaged bankruptcy before defaulting, he added.

"In all of these cases, we estimate Ambac common equity would be worthless," Wessel wrote.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Ignore JP Morgan and Buy Ambac
by: Wealth Daily April 14, 2010 | about: ABK





By Ian Cooper

We first mentioned Ambac (ABK) with the Bank of America news... and while we didn't recommend buying at the time, we did hear that some of you did buy around $1.

Today, sitting well above $2 a share, that's more than a 100% gain in no time at all. Even now, it's a buy. And Cramer, of all people, is confirming that idea.

JP Morgan (JPM) may have come out yesterday urging caution with Ambac and bringing Ambac down but who cares what they think?

It was Jim Cramer, someone that hates Ambac, that rode to its rescue post sell-off:


Here's what he had to say:

I hate Ambac Financial. I believe the current stub of equity is worthless. The claims are too big and the cash too small. But so what. Ouch. That's painful to write. Especially, when you consider the Columnist Conversation tune of Tim Collins, and the excellent work by Andrew Wessel at JP Morgan backing up that analysis. But it doesn't matter. You could argue that none of these insurers are technically solvent: Radian (RDN), PMI (PMI), MGIC Investment (MGIC), MBIA (MBI). It hasn't meant a thing. MGIC has rallied 400% during its extended period of "worthlessness." I want some of that worthlessness. Radian's up 600% during its "worthless" period. I would have liked a piece of that worthlessness. How about grabbing a hunk of the 800% rally in the "worthless" PMI? Wouldn't that have been delicious? Do you hold your nose and buy ABK because of those rallies? I believe, oddly, yes.

Could it be that Jimmy is making sense these days, worthy of my short attention span in the hour he's on?

Could be. I say ignore what JP Morgan cautiously said and buy.

For similar trading ideas, check out Options Trading Pit. Though, if you're still not comfortable trading options, we offer a full education here.


About the author: Wealth Daily

http://seekingalpha.com/article/198643-ignore-jp-morgan-and-…
Ambac - Nochmals 172 % Kursplus?


Ambac ist in der zurückliegenden Woche an der NYSE impulsiv und mit hohem Handelsvolumen um über 70 % nach oben geschossen. Damit hat sich die Aktie aus einem fallenden Dreieck befreit, welches sich seit Mai 2009 gebildet hat.

Nach Elliott Wave ist dieses Dreieck der Korrekturwelle X zuzuordnen. Der Welle X ging die Welle Y von 0,35 auf 2,09 US$ voraus.
12.04.10 14:52
Ambac - Nochmals 172 % Kursplus?




Um die seit März 2009 laufende WXY-Korrektur zu beenden, fehlt noch der Abschluss der Welle Y. Diese ist jüngst gestartet. Die Aktie befindet sich damit wieder im Rallymodus.

Die Kursziele für Ambac liegen jetzt bei mind. 2 US$. Dort nimmt Welle Y die 74,6%ige Ausdehnung der Welle W. Außerdem stellt die 2 US$ Marke einen horizontalen Widerstand dar.

Wird dieser Widerstand nach oben durchstoßen, kommt anschließend die 3 US$ Marke ins Spiel! Dort sind dann Welle W und Y typischer Weise gleich lang!

Fazit: Ambac hat nach aus dem Ausbruch aus dem Dreieck noch viel Aufwärtspotenzial von 81 bis 172 %. Allerdings muss sich ab jetzt auf eine hohe Schwankungsbreite eingestellt werden. Denn linear werden die genannten Kursziele mit Sicherheit nicht erreicht.


Mit freundlichen Grüßen
Robert Schröder
www.Elliott-Waves.com
13.04.10 18:52
Ambac - Die Bäume wachsen nicht in den Himmel


Dass es so schnell geht ...
Erst gestern wurde Ambac nach Elliott Wave ein Kursziel von 3 US$ bzw. 81 bis 172 % eingeräumt. Die Aktie schoss heute im Tageshoch auf 3,39 US$. Das Kursziel wurde damit deutlich früher als erwartet erreicht.

Doch auch bei Ambac wachsen die Bäume nicht in den Himmel!
Nach dem impulsiven Anstieg der vergangenen Tagen um über 550 % ist jetzt eine (mehrwöchige) Konsolidierung notwendig. Diese liegt im Rahmen der Welle b von Y zwischen etwa 1,66 und 1,33 US$. Diese Ziele entsprechen dem 38er und dem 50% Retracement.



Ausgehend davon besteht dann für Ambac nach diesem "Luftholen" eine zweite Rally-Chance. Im Rahmen der sich dann anschließenden Welle c von Y kann Ambac ohne Weiteres den Bereich von ca. 6 US$ ansteuern.


Mit freundlichen Grüßen
Robert Schröder
www.Elliott-Waves.com
Sirius XM, Ambac: Week's Big Volume Movers

By Robert Holmes 04/17/10 - 12:12 PM EDT

While Sirius XM shareholders were buoyed by an analyst's comments, Ambac Financial(ABK) stockholders found little comfort in an analyst's assertion that their investment was "worthless."

Ambac Financial shares had traded below the $1 mark since December 2009 until the bond insurer reported an unexpected profit after the market closed on April 8. Ambac said it had net income of $558.1 million, or $1.93 a share, in the fourth quarter, compared with a year-ago loss of $2.34 billion, or $8.14 a share. The news was enough to nearly double the share price to $1.10 the following trading day.

The momentum rally persisted into this last week, with Ambac more than doubling to $2.25 during Monday's session on a whopping 415 million shares in volume.

The continued strength in Ambac was attributed to a massive short squeeze. According to the New York Stock Exchange's monthly short interest report, short interest on Ambac Financial increased to 60.4 million shares by the end of March, up from 54.4 million on March 15, making it one of the top 25 short interest candidates on the exchange.

Prior to the better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, it's no surprise Ambac had been a target for short traders. In March, Ambac said it may consider a negotiated restructuring of its debt through a prepackaged bankruptcy proceeding or may seek bankruptcy protection without agreement concerning a plan of reorganization with major creditor groups. In addition, the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance (OCI), which regulates Ambac Assurance Corp., took control of $35 billion of its main subsidiary's liabilities.

Tuesday looked to be another winning session for Ambac shareholders, as the stock rode momentum higher all the way to $3.39 a share. However, shares pulled back sharply after JPMorgan analyst Andrew Wessel maintained his stance that the common equity "has no value."

"We believe any investment in [Ambac] shares at this time is highly speculative, although we still believe a short in [Ambac] equity will generate attractive long-term returns," Wessel wrote. "Basically, we feel the near-term volatility may not be worth the eventual long-term pay-off from a short."

TheStreet's Gavin Magor added that even at $3.39 a share, investors should have understood that Ambac is still a penny stock. Magor noted that the company still has a junk rating, adding that the 2009 results that people were trading on reflect the period before the OCI took action.

For now, it may appear that Ambac may dodge a delisting by the NYSE, but that may be little consolation for anyone who bought Ambac for more than $3 a share only to see it finish out the week at $1.76.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10728662/2/sirius-xm-ambac-we…
APRIL 24, 2010


Full Disclosure: Most Risks Hide in Plain Sight

Without full and proper disclosure, investors can't make an informed decision. Even with full and proper disclosure, however, many investors still can't make an informed decision.

That is the unspoken irony at the heart of the Securities and Exchange Commission's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs .

Don't get me wrong. One of the most fundamental tenets of financial regulation is that forewarned is forearmed. Without good disclosure, the markets can't function. I'm not saying that Goldman—which denies all wrongdoing and any material omission—shouldn't have disclosed to buyers that short sellers at Paulson & Co. helped put together the now-notorious Abacus deal.
WSJ Professional



What I am saying is that telling investors what they need to know is necessary, but insufficient. Receiving information and using it wisely are two entirely different things. Regulators, rightly, focus on ensuring that disclosure is provided. But investors struggle with using it wisely. As the Nobel Prize-winning economist Herbert Simon warned: "Information consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention."

Consider a recent analysis of disclosures by Ambac and MBIA, two specialty insurance companies. Each quarter, in forms they file with state regulators, such firms must list any significant exposures they may have to the same kinds of derivative securities that are under dispute in the SEC's case against Goldman. The insurers posted the filings on their own Web sites; with a little digging, investors could find them.

Robert Bartlett, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, found that Ambac and MBIA's state filings—plus other public information from the Irish Stock Exchange Web site—gave ample disclosure about the derivatives to which they were exposed. But on the days when the credit ratings of those derivatives were massively downgraded, the share prices of Ambac and MBIA barely budged relative to the market. Only when the insurers issued earnings announcements that showed the cumulative losses did investors finally take notice and sell Ambac and MBIA's stock.

"It was apparently very difficult even for institutional investors to contend with the amount and volume of noise in the market in 2008," Prof. Bartlett says.

Even if disclosures are easy to think about, investors still may not focus on what matters most. A team of economists, including David Laibson of Harvard, tested whether investors would favor the lowest-cost choice among four index funds if the importance of fees was hammered home in a one-page "cheat sheet."



The good news: By presenting a simplified emphasis on fees, the researchers tripled the number of investors who favored the lowest-cost funds. The bad news: That tripling brought the proportion up only to 9% from 3%. "We still ended up with a 91% failure rate," says Prof. Laibson. Encouraged to focus on fees, investors nevertheless fixated on—and chased—past performance.

Disclosure can also backfire. Psychologists Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris are co-authors of "The Invisible Gorilla," a forthcoming book explaining why humans so often fail to observe information that should be obvious. Prof. Chabris suggests that the more comprehensive a prospectus seems, the more likely investors are to conclude, "All you need to pay attention to is within the four corners of this document." That, in turn, may lull investors out of any urge to do further research and exercise independent judgment.

Regulators still should push for better disclosure, but every investor also should rely on a standardized checklist of questions that must be answered before any purchase. Perhaps the most important: If I am buying, someone else is selling. What, exactly, do I know that this other person may have overlooked?

For investors who profited from the credit crisis, the answer often lay outside the prospectus: in visiting housing developments or in picking apart one mortgage pool at a time.

Benjamin Graham, perhaps the most astute analyst Wall Street has ever produced, was once asked whether he thought disclosure was adequate. Graham replied that the quantity of disclosure "makes me ill." He added, "I don't know if there is any solution … I suppose [a prospectus] would have to say in big red-letter words, THIS [SECURITY] IS NOT WORTH WHAT IT IS SELLING FOR. I don't know if that would make any difference either … somebody [would just say], 'What the hell, it is going up anyway.'"

You can lead an investor to disclosure, but you can't make him think.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870438830457520…
Aktientitan

bei aller freundschaft

mit alten geschichten - in englisch, die die meisten nicht verstehen - pushst du hier wie der uptik bei aib, der dort hunderte leute ins unglück gestürzt hat.

ich bitte dich, diese pusherei bei ambac mit der bschissenen finanziellen lage zu unterbinden. tatsache ist, dass ambac nur verluste macht und der angegebenen gewinn kein echter gewinn gewesen, sondeern steuerrückzahlung. außerdem hat das unternehmen 31 milliarden schulden.

also bitte beeinfluss den leuten nicht

schönes wochenende
am 10.5.10 sollen die zahlen kommen. ich hoffe auf gute zahlen. wenn nicht, dann haben amba fertig
sorry tippfehler. schulden 21 milliarden.

die sämtlichen daten von ambac sieht man hier


http://www.finanzen.net/bilanz_guv/AMBAC_Financial_Group
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.395.536 von gauner1 am 24.04.10 10:25:43Sonst geht es "DIR" aber ...GUT ??????

Diese UNTERSTELLUNGEN ...VERBITTE ich mir !!!!!!!

Hier geht es nur um Fakten bezüglich AMBK !!!!!

Und nun PUNKT.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.395.594 von Aktientitan am 24.04.10 10:53:15

danke für die nachfrage. ja mir geht s sehr gut. bin gestern aus marbella zurückgekommen. war ganz schön mit so vielen hübschen mädchen auf meinem kleinen jacht. nur partys,partys und champagne. in vier wochen wird allles wieder wiederholt.

ach übrigens du sprichst von fakten. hier hast du die fakten. aber du willst ja nicht damit zu tun haben, aber trotzdem stelle ich dir die fakten noch mal rein. klick mal drauf, wenn du nicht vorhast, in die eigene tasche zu lügen

hier you are

http://www.finanzen.net/bilanz_guv/AMBAC_Financial_Group
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.395.629 von gauner1 am 24.04.10 11:08:12Fehlt eigentlich nur das Eigenkapital. Normalerweise ein Übernahmekandidat. Wäre mit XL Capital zu vergleichen, wäre da nicht das fehlende Eigenkapital. Ich würde/werde Ambac nicht verkaufen. Warten wir zwei Quartale ab.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.395.717 von Timberone am 24.04.10 11:52:32
ja, zwei quartale ist völlig in ordnung. ich wollte aber das eingesetzte kapital nicht solange parken. wie gesagt, hoffe aber auf gute zahlen. zumindestens kein verlust soll rausgommen. nach 2 jahren verlust von je 5 milliarden war 2009 mit 844 millionen operatives ergebnis nicht schlecht. pro aktie war aber mit 0,05 usd in verlust
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Top 10 Insurance Stocks of the Week: MBI, AIG, ABK, HALL, AAME, ORI, HIG, NSEC, NYM, MOH (Apr 24, 2010)

http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/04/top-10-insurance-stocks-of-…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.396.917 von Aktientitan am 25.04.10 08:15:47Na ja. Das wissen wir doch.
Ambac Restructuring May Cost Corporate CUs $400 Million
4/28/2010
By Heather Anderson


Monoline insurer Ambac’s forced restructuring could cost corporate credit unions as much as $400 million in new OTTIs.

U.S. Central FCU said action last month by the Wisconsin insurance commissioner to take control of Ambac’s residential mortgage-backed securities guarantees caused it to lose an additional $274 million in 2009. The new OTTI is the result of a reduction in Ambac’s ability to pay on guaranteed bonds from 80% to 25%. U.S. Central had the highest Ambac exposure among corporates, worth a par value of $1.244 billion. It had previously recorded $142 million in Ambac-related OTTIs before the restructuring.

Other corporates with large investment portfolios–Western Corporate FCU, Members United FCU and Southwest Corporate FCU–could stand to lose an additional $125 million combined if their portfolios respond the same way U.S. Central’s did.

NCUA spokesman John McKechnie said WesCorp’s Ambac-insured securities have a current face value of $293 million. The San Dimas, Calif.-based corporate will announce $25.4 million in new OTTIs on April 23 related to Ambac’s restructuring, he said.

As of Feb. 28, the book value of Member United’s Ambac wrapped securities was $315 million. Based on losses suffered by U.S. Central and WesCorp, OTTIs could range from $25 million to $68 million. Members United President/CEO Joseph Herbst warned members that the forced restructuring would have a significant impact on Ambac’s ability to pay and could result in additional OTTI for the Warrenton, Ill.-based institution

Southwest Corporate FCU reported a par value of Ambac wrapped securities of $205 million as of Feb. 28. That could result in as much as $44 million in OTTIs for the Texas based corporate.

The new round of losses for U.S. Central reduced the value of the NCUSIF $1 billion capital note to $395 million as of Dec. 31, 2009.


http://www.cutimes.com/Issues/2010/April-28-2010/Pages/Ambac…
immer neue tiefen .. wann ist kommt der stopp?

Kaufinteresse ist kurzfristig vorhanden

Stück Geld Kurs Brief Stück
1,404 Aktien im Verkauf 4.190
1,40 Aktien im Verkauf 1.000
1,38 Aktien im Verkauf 4.000
1,351 Aktien im Verkauf 4.186
1,297 Aktien im Verkauf 4.129
1,27 Aktien im Verkauf 2.626
1,269 Aktien im Verkauf 500
1,265 Aktien im Verkauf 3.500
1,244 Aktien im Verkauf 4.000
1,243 Aktien im Verkauf 1.000

Quelle: http://aktienkurs-orderbuch.finanznachrichten.de/FGP.aspx

500 Aktien im Kauf 1,225
3.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,202
2.250 Aktien im Kauf 1,20
15.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,195
10.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,186
4.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,185
35.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,18
30.000 Aktien im Kauf 1,16
4.777 Aktien im Kauf 1,151
7.680 Aktien im Kauf 1,15

Summe Aktien im Kauf Verhältnis Summe Aktien im Verkauf
112.207 1:0,26 29.131
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* April 30, 2010, 12:36 PM ET

Ambac Off 11% on Stock-Split Discussion


By Tiernan Ray

Shares of bond insurer Ambac (ABK) are currently off 18 cents, or 11%, at $1.49, having declined sharply since the open, on no obvious news.

The company just announced in a proxy filing with the SEC the reasons why it urges shareholders to vote for a reverse stock split at a meeting on June 14:

Our common stock currently trades on the NYSE under the symbol “ABK.” The continued listing requirements of the NYSE applicable to us require, among other things, that the average closing price of our common stock be above $1.00 over 30 consecutive trading days. While our common stock currently trades above $1.00, it has traded below $1.00 and may trade, absent the reverse stock split, below $1.00 again in the future. On December 8, 2009, we received a notice from the NYSE that we had fallen below the continued listing standard relating to the price of our common stock for a 30 day consecutive period. On December 10, 2009, we informed the NYSE that we intend to cure such deficiency and bring our ordinary share price back to a level that exceeds $1.00 per share, within approximately six months. If at the end of such cure period we are unable to satisfy the NYSE criteria for continued listing, our common stock will be subject to delisting. The purpose of the Reverse Stock Split is to increase the per share trading value of our common stock. Our Board of Directors intends to effect the proposed Reverse Stock Split only if the implementation of a reverse stock split is determined by the Board of Directors to be in the best interests of Ambac and its stockholders. Our Board of Directors may exercise its discretion not to implement the Reverse Stock Split.


http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/04/30/ambac…
About Thomson Reuters
Sydney Airports to test investors with A$ bond swap
Mon May 3, 2010 12:16pm IST


(For the latest Australia and New Zealand bond news, double
click on [AU/CRD] and then double click on the ID number)
SYDNEY, May 3 (Reuters) - Sydney Airports, Australia's largest
airport, will be meeting with investors this week to gauge
interest on a possible bond exchange, an investor who has been
invited said on Monday.

The potential exchange would involve a buyback of two
AMBAC-credit wrapped note issues of A$400 million ($370
million) due in November 2011 and/or A$280 million due in
October 2012.

Investors will be asked to give feedback on a new unwrapped
longer-dated bond issue.

Westpac Institutional Bank is arranging the meetings.

Sydney Airports is owned by Macquarie Airports (MAP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), an
infrastructure fund in which Australia's top investment bank
Macquarie Bank (MQG.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) owns a 23 percent stake.

Wrapped bonds are backed by financial guarantees that used
to offer investors greater security. However, most global bond
insurers were hit hard by structured finance losses when the
global credit crisis hit and lost their triple A ratings.

The Australian bond market has about A$20 billion in
outstanding wrapped bonds, most of them issued to fund
infrastructure projects.

Such bonds were largely insured by MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and
Ambac (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) with the balance mainly split between XL Capital
(XL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), now Syncora Guarantee, Financial Security Assurance
Inc, now part of Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Financial
Guaranty Insurance Corp, according to ADCM data.

(Reporting by Cecile Lefort)




http://in.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilities…
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Regains Compliance with NYSE Minimum Share Price Listing Requirement
Montag, 03.05.2010 | 21:06 Uhr
Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
(NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced that the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") notified Ambac today that its average stock price for the 30-trading days ended April 30, 2010 was above the NYSE?s minimum requirement of $1.00 per share.

Accordingly, Ambac has resumed compliance with all NYSE continued listing requirements and the ?.BC? indicator following the ABK stock symbol will be removed by the NYSE tomorrow.

On December 8, 2009, Ambac was notified by the NYSE that the average closing price of its common stock had declined below a consecutive 30-trading-day average price of $1.00 per share. Ambac had approximately six-months to regain compliance or be delisted. As a result, the NYSE added a ?.BC? indicator to its stock symbol. In the event that the average closing price of Ambac?s common stock were to again fall below $1.00 per share over a consecutive 30-trading-day period, Ambac would be out of compliance and would be required to cure such non-compliance or face possible delisting.

About Ambac

, headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provided financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has a Caa2 rating under review for possible upgrade from Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and an R (regulatory intervention) financial strength rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK).

Forward-Looking Statements

This release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of management?s forward-looking statements here or in other publications may turn out to be incorrect and are based on Ambac management?s current belief or opinions. Ambac?s actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about the performance of Ambac?s securities. Among events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are: (1) Ambac has insufficient capital to finance its debt service and operating expense requirements beyond the second quarter of 2011 and may need to seek bankruptcy protection; (2) the unlikely ability of Ambac Assurance to pay dividends to Ambac in the near term; (3) the risk that holders of debt securities or counterparties on credit default swaps or other similar agreements bring claims alleging that the rehabilitation of the Segregated Account constitutes an event of default under the applicable debt indenture or an event of default under the applicable ISDA contract; (4) adverse events arising from the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings, including the injunctions issued by the Wisconsin rehabilitation court to enjoin certain adverse actions related to the Segregated Account being successfully challenged as not enforceable; (5) litigation arising from the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings; (6) any changes to the Proposed Settlement, or the failure to consummate the Proposed Settlement; (7) decisions made by the rehabilitator for the benefit of policyholders may result in material adverse consequences for Ambac?s securityholders; (8) potential of rehabilitation proceedings against Ambac Assurance, with resulting adverse impacts; (9) the risk that reinsurers may dispute amounts owed us under our reinsurance agreements; (10) possible delisting of Ambac?s common shares from the NYSE; (11) the risk that market risks impact assets in our investment portfolio or the value of our assets posted as collateral in respect of investment agreements and interest rate swap and currency swap transactions; (12) risks which impact assets in Ambac Assurance?s investment portfolio; (13) risks relating to determination of amount of impairments taken on investments; (14) credit and liquidity risks due to unscheduled and unanticipated withdrawals on investment agreements; (15) market spreads and pricing on insured CDOs and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac; (16) inadequacy of reserves established for losses and loss expenses, including our inability to realize the remediation recoveries included in our reserves; (17) Ambac?s financial position and the Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings may prompt departures of key employees; (18) the risk of litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of adverse outcomes in connection therewith, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows; (19) difficult economic conditions, which may not improve in the near future, and adverse changes in the economic, credit, foreign currency or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad; (20) the actions of the U. S. Government, Federal Reserve and other government and regulatory bodies to stabilize the financial markets; (21) likely unavailability of adequate capital support and liquidity; (22) credit risk throughout our business, including credit risk related to residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations (?CDOs?) and large single exposures to reinsurers; (23) default by one or more of Ambac Assurance?s portfolio investments, insured issuers, counterparties or reinsurers; (24) the risk that our risk management policies and practices do not anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as a result of unforeseen risks; (25) factors that may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac, including the imposition of the payment moratorium with respect to claims payments as a result of Segregated Account Rehabilitation Proceedings; (26) changes in prevailing interest rates; (27) the risk of volatility in income and earnings, including volatility due to the application of fair value accounting, required under the relevant derivative accounting guidance, to the portion of our credit enhancement business which is executed in credit derivative form, and due to the adoption of the new financial guarantee insurance accounting standard effective January 1, 2009, which, among other things, introduces volatility in the recognition of premium earnings and losses; (28) changes in accounting principles or practices that may impact Ambac?s reported financial results; (29) legislative and regulatory developments; (30) operational risks, including with respect to internal processes, risk models, systems and employees; (31) changes in tax laws and other tax-related risks; (32) other factors described in the Risk Factors section in Part I, Item 1A of Ambac?s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2009 and also disclosed from time to time by Ambac in its subsequent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are available on the Ambac website at www.ambac.com and at the SEC?s website, www.sec.gov; and (33) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made and that Ambac does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that arise after the date the statements are made. You are therefore advised to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in Ambac?s reports to the SEC.
MAY 3, 2010, 5:01 P.M. ET

UPDATE:Policyholders Challenge Ambac Plan, Call It Unfair


By Romy Varghese
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


A group comprised mostly of hedge funds is challenging a state regulator's proposed solution to the problems of Ambac Assurance Corp., the bond-insurance unit of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), calling the plan preferential to others and harmful to their interests.

The companies filed papers in Dane County Circuit Court in Madison, Wis., late Friday, seeking to delay a settlement being negotiated by Ambac's regulator, the Wisconsin Office of the Insurance Commissioner, that would give banks $2.6 billion in cash and $2 billion in securities called surplus notes in exchange for tearing up $17 billion worth of Ambac-insured collateralized debt obligations.

The firms--hedge funds Aurelius Capital Management, Fir Tree Inc., King Street Capital LP, King Street Capital Master Fund, and Monarch Alternative Capital LP and money manager Stonehill Capital Management--own or manage $1 billion of those insured assets, in the form of residential mortgage-backed securities.

The Wisconsin regulator in March put those securities into a segregated account containing $68 billion worth of contracts on similar and other kinds of structured securities. Claims made by owners of these assets won't not be paid until the court approves a rehabilitation plan, which the regulator expects by September.

Meanwhile, contracts on the $223 billion in municipal debt remain in the general account and so are unaffected.

The move of the structured finance contracts to a segregated account had already sparked legal action in the Wisconsin state court. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) last month filed a motion objecting to the placement of the contracts on Las Vegas Monorail bonds in the segregated account, saying in part that those are only municipal guarantees in the account.

Sean Dilweg, the Wisconsin insurance regulator, had said he assumed control of some policies of the troubled insurer to give it some time to honor its obligations and that the process would treat policyholders fairly.

One prong in his solution was to negotiate with banks to settle the $17 billion of CDOs. But in the brief filed in Wisconsin's circuit court late Friday, the firms exposed to the $1 billion in RMBS said the payout to CDO investors would come from the general account, money that might be used to settle their claims. In that way, they contended, the plan would cause "direct and irreversible harm" to them and other holders of segregated contracts who rely on the general account for their claims.

The firms are asking the court to halt this settlement and preserve the status quo, and to allow more time to determine the fairness of the plan.

The current order allowing the segregated account "ties the hands of the RMBS Policyholders and similarly-situated policyholders, while giving AAC [Ambac Assurance] free rein to unjustifiably award preferential treatment to certain favored creditors, policyholders and its parent, which materially prejudices the rights and reduces the potential recoveries of the remaining policyholders," the brief said.

The firms ultimately want the court to invalidate creation of the segregated account, saying it doesn't have enough capital and that Dilweg overstepped his authority.

Dilweg has estimated that the policyholders of the segregated account may receive 25 cents on the dollar, the firms said, yet hasn't detailed why that would be equitable. The segregated account is capitalized by a $2 billion secured note due 2050, and remaining claims would be satisfied by surplus notes from the general account.

"We believe these assertions lack merit and that the small group of RMBS policyholders will be persuaded otherwise when the details are more fully understood," Dilweg said in a statement Monday.

Aurelius Capital Management, Fir Tree Inc., King Street Capital LP, and Monarch Alternative Capital LP didn't return calls for comment. Stonehill Capital Management deferred questions to an attorney, Bryan Nowicki at Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren, who didn't return a call for comment.

Ambac was a leader in the bond-insurance industry before its guarantees tied to risky subprime bonds and other complex securities roiled the firm. It hasn't been writing new insurance contracts and, in its latest 10-K filing, warned that its liquidity may run out before the second quarter of 2011.



-By Romy Varghese, Dow Jones Newswires; 215-656-8263; romy.varghese@dowjones.com

(Aparajita Saha-Bubna contributed to this article.)

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100503-714845.html?mod…
damit wesentliche Informationen nicht untergehen
kopiere ich mit Erlaubnis des Verfassers den Beitrag in diesen thread

#22491 von BringFrieden Benutzerinfo Nachricht an Benutzer Beiträge des Benutzers ausblenden 04.05.10 20:22:29 Beitrag Nr.: 39.455.795
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden Diskussion drucken

Ja sehr geehrte User, ich habe mir etwas Zeit gelassen mit der Einschätzung, damit ich nachträglich noch von einem nicht gesehenen Zug überholt werde. Nur kommen wir mal zum wesentlichen.

ABK hat heute die Auflagen der NYSE erfüllt: Der Durchschnittspreis von ABK auf dreißig Tage liegt über einem Dollar.

Stand Q4 2009:
Eigenkapital: - 2.288
Verlustreserven: 4,772
Vorrausgezahlte Reserven aus Premiumerträgen: 5.687 ( diese beinhalten ca: 50% Vorrauszahlungen für RMBS-Versicherungen. Sicherlich wurden diese Zahlungen getätigt um ABK in einer Art wie bei AIG auf eine sofortige Auszahlkung zu pochen. Der Trick liegt darin, dass ABK bei einer Vertragsauflösung gezwungen ist diese unverdienten Gelder dann zurückzahlen müsste. Da ABK die Gelder aber nicht angefasst hat, ist ABK auch nicht in einer Notlage. Die Notlage befindelt sich auf der Seite Versicherten. Diese werden also durch die Vertragsauflösung die zu früh eingezahlten Beträge zurückerstattet bekommen: Die Bilanz von ABK wird dadurch ca: um 50% also ca. 2,89 Mrd in diesem Quartal schrumpfen.

Loss and Loss Expenses: 2,815 Mrd
Diese Zahl wird unter Berücksichtung der unearnded premiums miteinander verbucht werden, so dass die Summe in Q1 bei Schätzungsweise bis zu 250 Millionen fallen dürfte.

Alleine die bis hierhin vorgenommene Verbesserung in der Bilanz führt zu einem höheren Rating, da die Risiken stark geschrumpft sind.

Estimated impairment losses on credit derivatives: 3,842 Mrd

Genau dieser Betrag ist eine Reserve aufgrund der Annahme enstehnder Verluste auf Swapgeschäfte. Da die Immobilien bei ABK per total return swaps versichert waren - ABK garantierte die Zinserträge und nicht mehr oder weniger - muss der Überschuß bei einer Einigung dem Eigenkapital zu gerechnet werden.

Statutische Einlage: 1,154 Mrd
Durch die Einigung von ABK mit seinen Vertragspartnern auf 2,6 Mrd sofortiger Zahlung und 2 Mrd in Form eines Schuldscheines (Anleihe - IOU) sind von den (3,842 Mrd + 1,154)-2,6 abzurechnen = 2,396 Mrd die an Überschuss auf das Eigenkapital anfallen.
Dem hinzuzufügen ist der Betrag der Verlustreserve aus der statutischen Einlage 1,141 Mrd.

Verrechnet man die Zahlen so ergibt sich ein Ergebnis von 6,021 Mrd Eigenkapital + einer Anleihe von 2 Mrd als langfristige Verbindklichkeit.
-------
In der neuen ,,Bad Versicherung" vom Regulator eingefügt als ,,segreated Account" befinden sich 53,557 Mrd, nach meiner Schätzung. Ihr sollte ja auch meine Schätzung verstehen.

30% davon könnte nach Aussage von D.Wallis ABK zahlen müssen. 30% sind 16,0671 Mrd. Füge ich noch die Las Vegas hinzu, dann kommt man sicherlich auf die in den Zeitungen angenommenen 16,3 Mrd.
Jetzt ist folgendes passiert. Die Versicherungsnehmer haben gegen eine 25% Zahlung von 4,6 Mrd (2,6 Mrd cash + 2 Mrd IOU-Anleihe) die schlechten Hypothekenversicherungen mit ABK aufgelöst. So eine Auflösung macht man über ein Reverse Swap, was ABK die Möglichkeit gibt auf die Summe die Umsatzsteuer für sich selber zu ziehen.
ABK hat also noch ca. 37 Mrd an wirklichen AAA-Pfandbriefhypotheken versichert und die schlechten sind raus.

Somit komme ich auf einen zweistelligen Buchwert pro Aktie und mindestens ein BBB-Rating aufgrund des segreated Accounts. Mit einer Transferierung des bestandens an RMBS-Versicherungen ist ein A-Rating möglich, da dann nur noch die LAS Vegas belastet, was aber auch nicht mehr als ca. 22 Millionen pro Jahr kosten sollte, da auch hier ein total return swapgeschäft vorliegt.

Gruß BringFrieden bzw. auf Ariva Marlboromannbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsen


Kleine Anmerkung:
Das Eigenkapital könnte zu 50% als statutistische Einlage verbucht werden und daher schätze ich das Eigekapital auf 3 Mrd in Q1 2010. Punkt!


Ps
Schlusskurs
1.52
-0.21 (-12.14%)
#22521 von BringFrieden
05.05.10 12:08:08 Beitrag Nr.: 39.459.398


Wir spielen gerade eine Staatspleite von Spanien, Portugal und Italiens in der Eurozone, die einen Dominoeffekt auslösen könnte.

Angesichts dieser Tatsache sieht man wie wichtig Anleihversicherer sind. Denn Kurswert beziffer ich aber unter diesen Gesichtspunkten auf einen Sprung auf 5 Dollar bis 10 Dollar, wobei 5 ich am realistischten halte, hier mein Zielmarke. Der Euro wird zum Dollar auf 1 zu 1 fallen und erstmal bei 1,25 eine Pause machen.

Ich halte einen kurzfristigen Verkauf bei 5 und wer seine Euros sichern will und vermehren zu einem mittelfristigen Verkauf bei 10 bis 25 Dollar - bei einer Markterholung - für realistisch.

Man beachte das die Immobilienkrise vorbei ist für Wohnimmobilien!!!

Gruß BingFrieden/Marlboromann

#22659 von BringFrieden 05.05.10 20:10:02
Wenn ihr fertig seid, dann könnt ja mal nachdenken
warum Bank Mellon of New York am 3.5.2010 seine Aktienposition bei ABK weiter aufgestockt hat.

Ansonsten wünsche ich noch einen schönen Abend.

Schlußkurs: 1,48
-0.04 (-2.63%)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.465.514 von vermutung am 05.05.10 23:30:30Danke für die Mühe. Bei den vielen Postings verliert man schnell die Fakten. :)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.465.869 von Aktientitan am 06.05.10 07:28:01Lieber Aktientitan, was sagt uns denn dieser Chart :(

Danke für eine Antwort :kiss:
Southwest Corp Retains 90% Ambac Reliance
5/6/2010



* By Heather Anderson



The $10 billion Southwest Corporate FCU joined Corporate One FCU in deciding not to take any additional OTTI related to the Wisconsin insurance regulator’s March 25 action against monoline insurer Ambac Assurance Corp.

In its March 2010 financial reports, the Dallas based corporate said it had previously reduced Ambac’s payment reliance to 90% based on input from Moody’s. Because Ambac’s rehabilitation plan and CDO settlements are still ongoing, revisions to repayment expectations are not yet warranted, wrote Chief Investment Officer Bruce Fox and Chief Financial Officer Melissa Wardell.

In addition to the rehabilitation plan, Ambac announced a non-binding agreement to settle substantially all of its CDO exposures at an advantageous price, which enhances Ambac's claims paying ability, the corporate said.

Southwest Corporate also cited a comment made by Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner Sean Dilweg in court filings, in which he said “full payment to policyholders remains possible even in spite of Ambac's presently troubled financial condition.”
Should Ambac payment reliance fall to 0%, the resulting OTTIs could number $43 million.


http://www.cutimes.com/News/2010/5/Pages/Southwest-Corp-Reta…
More Bondholders Challenge Proposed Ambac Settlement In Court


By Romy Varghese, OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

The ranks of investors challenging a Wisconsin regulator's plan to rescue the troubled bond insurer Ambac Assurance (ABK) are growing.

Eaton Vance, Nuveen Asset Management, Restoration Capital and Stone Lion Capital filed a brief Wednesday in Dane County Circuit Court in Madison, Wis., asserting that the regulator's intention to pay off bank counterparties ahead of policyholders is unfair.

The bondholders--who say they hold a majority of Las Vegas Monorail Project Revenue bonds guaranteed by Ambac insurance--are seeking to stop the regulator, the Wisconsin Office of the Insurance Commissioner, from proceeding with a plan that would give unnamed banks $2.6 billion in cash and $2 billion in securities called surplus notes. In exchange, the banks would tear up $17 billion worth of Ambac-insured collateralized debt obligations.

These CDOs are not part of the segregated account the regulator created in late March to hold $68 billion worth of contracts on residential mortgage-backed bonds and other kinds of structured securities. Claims made by owners of assets in the segregated account won't be paid until the court approves a rehabilitation plan, which the regulator expects by September.

The segregated account is capitalized by a $2 billion secured note due 2050, and remaining claims would largely be satisfied by surplus notes from the general account.

In the court papers, the owners of the Las Vegas Monorail bonds--guarantees on which were placed in the segregated account--questioned the proposed deal the regulator struck with the banks. They said the upfront cash payment of $2.6 billion depletes the insurer's assets by almost one-third, considering that Ambac had assets of about $8.5 billion and a $800 million surplus at the end of 2009. It would also severely comprise Ambac's ability to pay the $2 billion secured note to the segregated account policyholders.

The brief asserts that the settlement is unfair since it gives preferable treatment to the bank counterparties ahead of Ambac's policyholders. Also, considering Ambac had reserved $3.8 billion for obligations to those banks and others who had similar contracts through credit default swaps, the proposed settlement pays more than the banks' claims are worth "on the face of it," the brief said.

"The proposed settlement could have a devastating impact on the rehabilitation of the segregated account of Ambac and cause irreparable harm to the rights of the LVM [Las Vegas Monorail] Bondholders and other policyholders whose policies have been allocated to the segregated account," the brief said.

The bondholders not only want the court to block the settlement from happening, which they believe is soon to be finalized, but to have it come under court review and approval.

More than $500 million in insured Las Vegas Monorail debt remains outstanding, according to the brief, and Ambac's exposure is around $1.2 billion.

Sean Dilweg, the Wisconsin insurance regulator, defended his plan in a written statement. "My intent and my mandate as a regulator are to protect the interests of all policyholders," he wrote. "All of my efforts are geared toward providing a durable solution for policyholders."

The motion from the Las Vegas Monorail bondholders comes after another group asked the court late Friday to block the settlement with the banks. The firms-- hedge funds Aurelius Capital Management, Fir Tree Inc., King Street Capital LP, King Street Capital Master Fund, and Monarch Alternative Capital LP and money manager Stonehill Capital Management--also asked to invalidate the segregated account. They own or manage $1 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities backed by Ambac insurance contracts that were placed in the segregated account.

In addition, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) last month filed a motion objecting to the placement of Las Vegas Monorail insurance in the segregated account, saying in part that those are only municipal guarantees in the account.

Ambac, Eaton Vance Management, and Stone Lion Capital Partners LP didn't return requests for comment, and Nuveen Asset Management and Restoration Capital Management declined to comment. Lawyers for the bondholders didn't return calls for comment.

Ambac had been losing millions of dollars a month from the toxic structured securities it guaranteed. In the fourth quarter of 2009, it saw a total net loss and loss expenses of $385.4 million.

-By Romy Varghese, Dow Jones Newswires; 215-656-8263; romy.varghese@ dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-06-101418ET
Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201005061418dowjonesdjonline000787&title=more-bondholders-challenge-proposed-ambac-settlement-in-court#ixzz0nB3P5W3b
StockPicktrading.com Morning Watchlist: Bank of America Inc., Citigroup Inc, Etrade Financial Corporation, Ambac Financial Group Inc. and more
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Shares of MBIA Rank the Highest in terms of Beta in the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry (MBI, ABK, AGO, XL, CNA)
Written on Sun, 05/09/2010 - 23:07
By Chip Brian

Below are the top five companies in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry as measured by beta. Higher-beta stocks mean greater volatility and risk, however they may provide the potential for higher returns when the stock market rebounds.
MBIA (NYSE:MBI) ranks first with a beta of 2.6; Ambac Financial (NYSE:ABK) ranks second with a beta of 2.3; and Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) ranks third with a beta of 2.1.
XL Capital (NYSE:XL) follows with a beta of 2.1 and CNA Financial (NYSE:CNA) rounds out the top five with a beta of 1.6.
SmarTrend is bearish on shares of ABK and our subscribers were alerted to Sell on April 28, 2010 at $1.72. The stock has fallen 19.8% since the alert was issued.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/shares-mbi…
Getting Ready for Ambac Financial Group's Earnings Announcement; ABK FNF RDN PMI
Monday, 10 May 2010 03:20

onday, 10 May 2010 03:20
Share 0

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (ABK) [Chart - Analysis - News] is scheduled to announce earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, May 11st. Looking at the analyst consensus, it appears most traders believe ABK is going to announce a loss of $3.30 per share.

Comparing the consensus estimate with ABK's loss of $1.36 per share a year ago, you can see that most analysts believe the company performed worse this year than it did last year.

As you prepare for ABK's announcement on Tuesday, remember that a loss of $3.30 per share has already been priced into the value of the stock. So if earnings come in at that level, we probably won't see much change in the price of the stock---unless the company changes its outlook for the future. It's also important to remember that good earnings don't always lead to higher stock prices.

ABK has lost 29 cents (17.37 percent) during the past week and is currently trading below its 20-day moving average but above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Investors will also be evaluating other stocks in the Surety & Title Insurance industry as ABK announces its earnings to see if any of the same factors that are influencing ABK may also come to bear on those stocks.

http://www.learningmarkets.com/News-Feed/2010051021223/getti…
Ambac First Quarter 2010 Results Scheduled to Be Released on May 18, 2010

Press Release Source: Ambac Financial Group, Inc. On Friday May 14, 2010, 1:30 pm EDT

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK - News) (Ambac) announced that it will release its first quarter 2010 results on May 18, 2010, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. Management will not host a conference call to discuss the first quarter’s results.

About Ambac

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a holding company whose affiliates provided financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured finance obligations, has a Caa2 rating under review for possible upgrade from Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and an R (regulatory intervention) financial strength rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol ABK).


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ambac-First-Quarter-2010-bw-35…
Ambac Financial Group Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)
Decrease Font Size Increase Font Size Print Print Buzz up!

May. 17, 2010 | Filed Under: ABK

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) filed Quarterly Report for the period ended 2010-03-31.

Ambac Financial Group Inc. has a market cap of $382.49 million; its shares were traded at around $1.33 with and P/S ratio of 0.1.
ABK is in the portfolios of Third Avenue Management, Martin Whitman of Third Avenue Value Fund, Bruce Kovner of Caxton Associates, Irving Kahn of Kahn Brothers & Company Inc., Oak Value of Oak Value Capital Management.

Highlight of Business Operations:

Cash Flows. Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities was $427.1 million and ($284.2) million during the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively. The cash provided by operating activities was primarily due to the Federal tax refund of $443.9 million received in the first quarter of 2010. Operating cash flows were positively impacted by the claim moratorium with respect to the rehabilitation of the Segregated Account ($130.1 millions of claims presented but net paid in the first quarter of 2010). The negative cash used in operating activities in 2009 was primarily due to high payments under derivative swap obligations, high loss payments on insurance policies and CDS contracts. Future net cash provided by operating activities will be impacted by the level of premium collections and claim payments, including payments under credit default swap contracts.

Net cash used in financing activities was ($30.8) million and ($866.6) million during the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively. Financing activities for the three months ended March 31, 2010 included repayments of investment and payment agreements of $31.1 million. Financing activities for the three months ended March 31, 2009 included repayments of investment and payment agreements of $985.8 million, partially offset by proceeds from Ambac Assurance’s preferred stock issuance of $100 million.

Net cash (used in) provided by investing activities was ($393.6) million and $1,150.8 million during the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively. These investing activities were primarily from sales and maturities of fixed income securities to meet operating cash flow needs.

Net cash provided by operating, investing and financing activities was $2.7 million and $0.1 million during the three months ended March 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively.

Ambac, through its subsidiary Ambac Financial Services, is a provider of interest rate and currency swaps to states, municipalities and their authorities and other entities in connection with their financings. Ambac Financial Services manages its swaps business with the goal of being market neutral to changes in benchmark interest rates while retaining some basis risk. Basis risk in the portfolio arises from (i) variability in the ratio of benchmark tax-exempt to taxable interest rates, (ii) potential changes in municipal issuers’ bond-specific variable rates relative to taxable interest rates, and (iii) variability between Treasury and swap rates. If actual or projected benchmark tax-exempt interest rates increase or decrease in a parallel shift by 1% in relation to taxable interest rates, Ambac would experience a mark-to-market gain or loss of $0.02 million and $0.02 million at March 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively. For a 1 basis point parallel shift in USD Libor interest rates versus the US Treasury rate Ambac would experience a mark-to-market gain or loss of $0.01 million and $0.06 million at March 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009. respectively. The derivative portfolio also includes an unhedged Sterling-denominated exposure to Consumer Price Inflation in the United Kingdom (UKRPI). For a 1% change in UKRPI for all maturities Ambac would experience a mark-to-market gain or loss of $0.01 million and $0.01 million at March 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively. Each of the amounts above are presenting sensitivity (gain or loss) under the assumption that everything else remains unchanged. Actual changes in tax-exempt interest rates, UKRPI and US Libor vs. US Treasury, as well as changes in Libor curves for different currencies themselves are correlated. This correlation is taken into account when we produce VaR numbers based on historical changes of all interest rate risk components as discussed below.

The estimation of potential losses arising from adverse changes in market relationships, known as VaR, is a key element in management’s monitoring of basis risk for the municipal interest rate swap portfolio. Ambac has developed a VaR methodology to estimate potential losses using a one day time horizon and a 99% confidence level. This means that Ambac would expect to incur losses greater than that predicted by VaR estimates only once in every 100 trading days, or about 2.5 times a year. Ambac’s methodology estimates VaR using a 300-day historical “look back” period. This means that changes in market values are simulated using market inputs from the past 300 days. For the three months ended March 31, 2010 and the year ended December 31, 2009, Ambac’s VaR, for its interest rate swap portfolio averaged approximately $5.2 million and $4.5 million, respectively. Ambac’s VaR ranged from a high of $6.5 million to a low of $3.2 million in the three months ended March 31, 2010 and from a high of $6.5 million to a low of $2.2 million in the year ended December 31, 2009. Ambac supplements its VaR methodology, which it believes is a good risk management tool in normal markets, by performing rigorous stress testing to measure the potential for losses in abnormally volatile markets. These stress tests include (i) parallel and non-parallel shifts in the benchmark interest rate curve and (ii) immediate changes in normal basis relationships, such as those between taxable and tax-exempt markets.



http://www.gurufocus.com/StockLink.php?type=sec&symbol=ABK&d…
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May 20, 2010, 3:14 PM ET

Ambac’s Credit Swaps Soar; Is There Hope?


By Tiernan Ray

Shares of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) are off 6 cents, another 6%, today after a 27% drop in the two trading days since Monday, as the company Tuesday reported its net loss widened significantly.

And today, the cost to ensure the company’s credit against default has soared by 77%, according to CMA, with a price of roughly $29 million on every $10 million of debt, a spread that seems to defy logic.

People are in other words pricing the company for bankruptcy, which is a place that Ambac has been before, I should note.

Is this it? Is Ambac toast? Is it the stock a call option?

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/05/20/ambac…
Ambac Plunges on Wider Loss

By: Zacks Equity Research
May 20, 2010 | Comments: 0
Recommended this article (2)
ABK
Print Share

Share price of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK - Analyst Report) plunged approximately 23.3% on Tuesday to close at $1.12 after the company reported its first quarter 2010 adjusted net loss of $0.68 per share, compared with adjusted net loss of $3.22 per share in the prior-year quarter. The company reported adjusted net income of $195.0 million in the quarter before it took a one-time charge of $495.1 million related to the adoption of a new accounting standard.

Deconsolidation of a number of variable interest entities due to adoption of the new accounting standard resulted in a one-time charge of $495.1 million in the reported quarter. Including the one-time charge, Ambac recorded a net loss of $690.1 million or $2.39 per share in the reported quarter compared with a net loss of $392.2 million or $1.36 per share in the year-ago quarter. The deconsolidation resulted from the state of Wisconsin taking control of some of the company’s most aggravated assets worth $64 billion.

In retrospect, Ambac had earlier expected a loss of up to $750 million for the first quarter based on the accounting impact of the regulators' move in March 2010. The results, however, came in much better than expected.

Net premiums earned were $125.2 million in first-quarter 2010, down 36% from $196.8 million recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Net investment income improved to $117.6 million, up 17% from $100.9 million in the year-ago quarter. Mix of securities moved from primarily tax-exempt to a greater percentage of taxable securities, resulting in an improvement in the average yield of the investment portfolio in the reported quarter. Higher average yield of the portfolio muted the comparatively lower invested asset base. Reduction in the portfolio to pay commutations on collateralized debt obligations (CDO) of asset-backed securities (ABS) transactions, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) claim payments and providing loans to the financial services businesses resulted in a lower invested asset base.

The lower asset base was however salved to some extent through the issuance of Ambac Assurance preferred stock worth $100 million in January 2009 and cash flow from the collection of financial guarantee premiums, tax refunds, fees and coupon receipts on invested assets.

Net loss and loss expenses substantially declined to $89.2 million in the reported quarter from $739.8 million in the prior-year quarter. Losses and loss expenses for the quarter primarily catered to credit deterioration in the second-lien segment of the insured RMBS portfolio and student loan transactions, moderately compensated by a net improvement in certain first-lien RMBS transactions.

Ambac has been neck deep in trouble for quite some time. The company suffered multiple rating downgrades since June 2008. The rating downgrades adversely impacted Ambac’s ability to generate new business. In March 2010, the rating agency Standard & Poor's slashed the rating of Ambac Assurance, a unit of Ambac Financial Group, to “R” from “CC” following the rehabilitation announcement by the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance (OCI). Further, to add to its woes, Moody's Investors Service slashed Ambac’s senior unsecured debt rating to “C” from “Ca”.

In November 2009, Ambac announced that it might file for bankruptcy protection if it fails to pull through its cash position. The company reiterated that warning after Wisconsin took control of some of the company’s worst-hit assets.


http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/34466/Ambac+Plunges+on+Wider…
!
Dieser Beitrag wurde moderiert. Grund: Spammposting
#25414 von BringFrieden 11.06.10 21:15:31

Manchmal frage ich mir, warum Leute nicht vorher mal sich einarbeiten, bevor sie nur holen Müll raus posaunen.

In Bezug auf das Proxstatement von ABK zur HV am 14 Juni.
Ich glaube das ABK sich selber zum Übernahmekandidaten machen wird, in dem sie unter dem Punkt Befenit Taxes, also die NOL die auf die Aktien gebunden sind, befreien. Damit sind 3,1 Mrd NOL für alle Retter frei zu haben. Daher denke ich das es so kommen wird, da ein Retter der 3,1 Mrd Steuer zahlen müsste einfach dies gegen ABK tausch, der KAufpreis von 3,1 Mrd erhält er ja zu 100% von der Steuer zurück und hätte eine Firma gratis dazu. Für die Aktionäre bedeutet dies, das sie 3,1 Mrd abzüglich der letzten Verbindlichkeiten erhalten und da wir bei den RMBS ein Rabatt gesehen hatte und somit die Kostengesunken sind sehe ich für die Aktie einen Wert von $8 bs $11.breites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsen

Dann hätten wir da noch den ad hoc Punkt, in dem den Aktionären morgen ein Spontanplan vorgelegt werden soll. Ich bin lasse mich mal überraschen ob morgen ein weißer Ritter einsteigt oder aber eine ganze Übernahme angepeilt wird.
Der Punkt Respilt würde somit eine andere Gewichtung erhalten, wonach die Aktionäre ein Teil der neuen danach ausgegeben Aktien einen weißen Retter geben. Dieser Retter könnte auch aus den mehreren Bondholdern, den Anleihgläubigern von ABK bestehen.

ICh hatte hier ja die Grafik von ABK CDO of ABS gestellt. Man bedenke das ABK sich über 16,4 MRd und 1,4 Mrd geeinigt hat, aber es nur 17,1 Mrd an BIG CDO of ABS als notleidende CDO of ABS inne hat. Man will sich noch über 1,5 MRd einigen was das CDO ofa ABS mit BBB-Rating im Wert bemisst. Somit sind über 700 Millionen mit drin, was dem Wert von Las Vegas Monrail und Weinstein Firmstudios betrifft.breites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsen

Welcher Idiot sollte ABK kaufen? Es sind bestimmt keine Idioten, denn sie wissen das der Mist drausen und ist und die anderen CDO of ABS verbleiben werden, die aber weiter Gewinne regenieren werden. Natürlich besteht immer ein unternehmerisches Risiko, aber die guten Versicherungen bleiben, der Mist ist raus.breites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsen

Gruß BringFrieden
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1138891-25411-254…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.683.904 von vermutung am 15.06.10 13:36:28 #25623 von clinton_s 14.06.10 23:02:57

Ich hatte es zwar die Tage schon mal geschrieben, aber Pfandbrief hat mir gleich wieder den Wind aus den Segeln genommen.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0220190820100202

Ambac gab im Februar bekannt, dass Blackstone sich bei Ambac für eine Sanierung engagieren will. Ende März kam dann die Notbremse durch die OCI. Die ganze Geschichte um Blackstone geriet ein wenig in den Hintergrund, aber jetzt sehe ich eine relativ hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass man durch dieses Unternehmen das nötige Kapital beschaffen könnte. Mit einer Absicherung der fälligen Zinsen und Tilgungen durch AFG sind die Hedge- Fonds erstmal abgeschüttelt. Wichtige Zeit im Überlebenskampf gewinnt Ambac durch die OCI.
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1138891-25621-256…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.683.963 von vermutung am 15.06.10 13:46:11 #25620 von BringFrieden 14.06.10 23:00:18

Es liegt jetzt nur noch an den Aktionären.

Stimmen sie einen Investor zu, dann geht die Akite schnell hoch.

Sagen die Aktionäre nein, dann geht es darum wann die ACC wieder Dividendenzahlungen tätigt, bzw. wann die OCI das Moratorium beenden muss und das muss sie wenn der segregated Account soweit saniert ist, dass die ACC den REst selber stämmen kann. ICh meine in 4,5 Monaten ist es soweit.

FÜr einen Investor bedeutet dies keine Zeit zu verlieren und wenn möglich die 3,1 Mrd NOL als Gegenleistung für eine Kapitalsspirtze für ABK zu erhalten, so hätte ABK und der Investor was davon.
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1138891-25611-256…
#26142 von Csillagok ausblenden 24.06.10 18:55:39


Hab ich mitbekommen ....
Keks

Zwei "Unentschieden" waren zu wenig !

traurig

Dass D gestern weiterkam, war Glück hoch 10 !

Naja, die fliegen dann komm. Montag nach Hause !

Gegen "good old ENGLAND" ist Endstation, definitiv !!!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.734.175 von vermutung am 24.06.10 21:59:34Guten Abend Csillagok:)

wie konnte mir so etwas nur passieren:cry:
Wie so vielen Lesern ergeht es mir auch.
Manchmal kann man erst spät am Abend
Fakten, Analysen und Meinungen im thread nachlesen
über jede begründete Stellungnahme ist man dankbar
und deswegen kopiere ich, wenn ich es schaffe
jede wertvolle Information in diesen thread hier rein

und
DICH habe ich glatt vergessen:rolleyes:
soviele postings hast Du schon geschrieben
die wichtigsten habe ich aber jetzt hierein kopiert


#26147 von Csillagok 24.06.10 21:11:36

Stimmt, Fussball hat was mit KÖNNEN zu tun !!!
Wer was kann, Leistung bringt, der gewinnt !

Börse , ABK erst recht, ist ein reines Glücksspiel !!!


Ps
Ich überlege, ob ich nicht einen thread eröffne
damit man Csillagok, Gadaffi und Co
in geballter Form nachlesen kann;)
#26040 von BringFrieden 21.06.10 20:08:29

ich werde versuchen es so einfach wie irgendwie möglich zu erklären.

Ich gehe mal auf das Geschäft mit ABS als Erstes ein. Man kann so ein Geschäft vergleichen mit dem Besuch eines Pfandhauses. Man hat ein Pfand und will dafür Geld erhalten und muss dafür einen Zinssatz dem Leihhaus zahlen.
Jetzt abgewandelt geht der Kunde zur Bank und kauft sich mehrere Häuser
( gebündelt sind das CDO),
dafür bezahlt er einen Zinssatz und hinterlegt als Grundkapital nicht einen Euro, dafür aber sichert er sich den Wert der vielen Häuser bei einer Versicherung ab, so dass er bei einem Verkauf mindestens seinen Einkaufspreis wieder erhält.
Also der Investor der eben viele Häuser gekauft hat betritt die Versicherung. Der Investor will seine vielen Häuser (CDO) absichern und bietet diese als Pfand an. Jetzt bewertet die Versicherung die CDO nicht selber, wie es ein Pfandleihhaus tun würde, sondern verlässt sich auf das Rating welches die Bank gekauft hatte für die CDO. Der Wert des Pfandes, also des CDO, wird durch einen Versicherungssatz gegen einen Ausfall versichert und zwar der dann eintritt, wenn der Investor das Objekt verkauft ( EOD ). Die Versicherungen kaufen damit das Pfand, ähnlich wie das Pfandleihhaus, welches die Eigentumsrechte am Pfand erhält, wenn das Pfand nicht in der Frist ausgelöst wird. Versicherung, wie auch das Pfandleihhaus, verkaufen dann das Pfand auf dem Markt zum Marktpreis.
Zur Erinnerung, die Bewertungen waren gefälscht und daher liegt hier der Betrugsfall bei den Banken, da diese ein gefälschtes Rating als echtes verkauft haben.
Zurück zum Beispiel. Jetzt wollen die Versicherer die Pfänder verkaufen, weil sie ja das Kapital benötigen und es wird so ermittelt welche Summe sie den Investor ersetzen müssen.
ABK hat die Versicherungsverträge aufgelöst, also Re-Swapgeschäfte getätigt, wobei das Pfand beim Pfänder bzw. das besicherte Asset beim Versicherten bleibt und dieser eine Zahlung dafür erhält. Durch diesen Vorgang ist ABK die Kacke von der Hacke los. Da aber 9,5 Mrd schon vorher an ähnlichen CDO von anderen Versicherern zurückgehalten wurden, welche noch verkauft werden müssen, um einen hohen Preis durch künstlich erzeugte Knappheit zu erzielen, trifft sie ein Überangebot von weiteren 16,4 Mrd die zu diesen 9,5 Mrd CDO auf den Markt kommen sehr sehr hart - es trifft die Konkurrenz von ABK und nicht ABK - da die Preise per Angebot und Nachfrage bestimmt werden.
Selbst wenn die anderen Versicherer ihre CDO noch zurückhalten, wie auch immer durch Klagen z.B. die Zeit zum Verkauf der CDO hinauszögern, so muss die Konkurrenz von ABK doch weitere hohe Verlustzuschreibungen tätigen, weil sie aufgrund des Überangebotes mit schlechteren Erlöspreisen kalkulieren muss.
Anders gesagt, hat ABK zwar 16,4 Mrd an CDO of ABS üer 4,6 Mrd Zahlung an Verträgen aufgelöst, diese Werte werden aber auf dem Markt geworfen werden von den Investoren und setzten somit einen Preisverlust anderer CDO of ABS in Gang, der vor allem der Konkurrenz von ABK schadet.

Wenn ich schon einmal dabei bin. Die anderen Werte von 30 Mrd sind durch sogenannte Return-Total-Swaps abgesichert. ABK zahlt also nur den ausgefallen Zinssatz und nicht die ganze Summe, welche versichert wurde. Das muss man so verstehen wie das Jemand ein Produkt per Ratenzahlung kauft und ABK dem Verkäufer das erhalten der Raten garantiert. Fällt jetzt eine Rate aus, dann zahlt ABK die Rate, nur solange, bis der Schuldner die Rate wieder zahlt. ABK ist damit in der Funktion eines Gläubigers, nur das ABK sich das nicht das Geld vom Schuldner wieder holen kann, dafür aber eine monatliche Rate erhält.
Ein ähnliches Versicherungsmodell läuft z.B. in der KFZ-Versicherung. Man bezahlt eine Jahrespauschale, tritt der Versicherungsfall ein, dann zahlt die Versicherung den Schaden, aber nicht gleich das ganze Auto.
Die Versicherungsgröße von 30 Mrd schlechter Total-Return-Swaps kann also zu einer Zahlung von x% im Jahr führen, also ca. 300 Millionen Dollar per Anno wenn 1% der Gesamtsumme an Zinszahlung im Jahr ausfällt, inklusive Abzug der Prämieneinnahmen durch die anderen Total-Return-Swaps. Die Gefahr die hiervon ausgeht ist wesentlich geringer als der von CDS. Vor allem wenn viele CDS-Fälle eintreten, wie bei der Immobilienkrise, und die Assets auf dem Markt verkauft werden müssen, so dass der Markt von einem Überangebot überflutet wird. Daher die Info des Analysten, dass Keiner weiß wie er dieses Überangebot einzuordnen hat.

Gruß Marlboromann bzw. BringFrieden
#26043 von Fatalis 22.06.10 09:09:41
(Antwort auf BringFrieden am 21.06.10 20:08:29)

Vielen Dank für die Mühe!

Wenn ich das richtig lese ist diese Info aber nicht nur positiv zu werten. Es erhärtet sich nur ein Eindruck, den ich seit Anfang des Jahres zu den CDO's habe bzw. deren Anbietern.

Eigentlich sind alle Monoliner irgendwie ins schlingern gekommen. Bei ABK ist es aus meiner Sicht nur deshalb so heftig, weil die von Anfang an sehr vorsichtig bilanziert haben. Somit entstand die Luxussituation im 4. Quartal 2009 dass durch die Korrekturen und Steuererstattungen ein super Ergebnis ausgewiesen werden konnte. So wie sich das alles liest wird ABK auch im 2. Quartal 2010 dazu in der Lage sein. Rückstellungen könnten aufgelöst werden und daraus scheinen ganz ordentliche Erträge zu kommen. Andere Monoliner gehen genau den umgekehrten Weg. Die standen bis jetzt noch ganz gut dar im Vergleich. Wenn aber immer mehr Abschreibungen auf diese zukommen, gleicht sich die Situation von denen, der von ABK an.

Wenn in dieser Woche nichts passiert mit ABK gehe ich ersteinmal wieder raus. Hatte am Montag gehofft, das die Nachricht des Tauschs in Aktien besser aufgenommen wird. Aktuell ist mir aber die Shortquote einfach zu hoch, dafür das keine Nachrichten anstehen. Die habens momentan einfach den Kurs zu drücken.

#26046 von BringFrieden 22.06.10 10:08:01
Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.717.895im neuen Fenster öffnen von Fatalis am 22.06.10 09:09:41
So in der Art ist es richtig, was du schreibst. ABK hat alles schön mit Verlusten bilanziert und die anderen drücken sich darum. Irgendwo wird eine Angleichung stattfinden. Nur das die anderen die CDO wohl auch verkaufen müssen und darauf hoffen später bessere Preise zu erhalten, während ABK die BAD CDO abwickelt bzw. schon zum Großteil abwickelte.
#26049 von BringFrieden 22.06.10 13:21:19

Vor Q3 ist ABK s;)aniert.

Q2 weist beim segregated Account schon mal weniger realisierte Verluste aus, als ABK voher dafür an Abschreibungen hielt.

Und zu den anderen 30 Mrd im segregated Account die Non-CDO sind. Naja es sind halt Schulen, Krankenhäuser, Fulghäfen usw., da muss man nicht viel zu sagen wer da die Raten bezahlt. Zwinkern

Gruß BringFrieden

#26064 von BringFrieden 22.06.10 16:47:27

Ich kann nur sagen was ich vermute. Ich vermute das die nächten Tage über eine Einigung von 1,5 Mrd CDO of ABS gemelet wird und dies ist die BBB-Tranche. Somit hätte AMBAC dann nur noch A-, AA- und die AAA-Tranche versichert.
Diese Meldung führt dann zweifellos zu einer Kurssteigerung.

Ob die Meldung und wann sie kommt, dass kann ich nicht garantieren, aber ABK sagt ja selber das sie kurz vor einer Eingung stehen

#26153 von BringFrieden 24.06.10 22:27:11
ABK kannst du nicht mit einem Bilanztrick der für Banken gilt retten.
Es ist aber so das ABK den Banken einen Bruchteil an Geld gab, damit die Banken diese Assets in ihren Bad Banks verschwinden lassen. Diese Bad Banks weisen erst viel später die Papiere mit Gewinnen aus, wenn sie wieder diese erzielen können und natürlich dann auch verkaufen.

Also die Banken haben die unendeliche Zeitspanne und Versicherer haben dies nicht. Versicherer können nur durch Gerichtsprozesse Zeit schinden. Mehr geht nicht.
#26176 von BringFrieden
Abend.

AB0960BE bedeutet das Weinstein für 115 Millionen abgezahlt wurde. Der Bertrag der Forderungen war vorher bei 450 Millionen.

Eine Liste die euch weiterhilft:
http://www.google.de/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CCIQFjAC&…

#26181 von BringFrieden

Im Grunde durchläuft Ambac und das sage ich ganz fair, eine sehr ungewöhnliche, wenn nicht einmalige Konstellation. Die Holding steht vor dem Bankrott, obwohl die Tochterfirmen nicht davor stehen und alles nur weil für 6 Monate eine neue Tochterfirma gegründet wurde, die 6 Monate einen Softbankrott durchläuft - weil die Firma in ein Moratorium sich befindet - und dadurch wurden sehr sehr viele CEDE ausgelöst. Cede sind die Rückversicherungen die ein Versicherer abschließt mit anderen Versicherern gegen die eigene Zahlungsausfallmöglichkeit von sich selbst gegenüber einer Versicherung die dieser verkauft hat. Die CEDE spülen Geld in die Kriegskasse.

Beispiel AB0960BE die Versicherung für Weinstein, für die ABK jetzt 115 Millionen Dollar zahlte. Da alles im Segregated Account nach ISDA-Behörde ein Versäumnis darstellt wurden die CEDE aktiviert, damit zahlt ABK nicht die 115 Millionen sondern die Partei die ABK dazu versichert hat, bzw. den Differenzbetrag der nicht gedeckt war. breites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsenbreites Grinsen

Ihr solltet mal CEDE nachschlagen.
#26572 von BringFrieden 10.07.10 08:19:11

Es gibt noch keine News, aber der Termin am 9 drehte sich um die LasVegasMonorail im Zusammenhang mit Wells Fargo, die versuchen ein Mitspracherecht für die in den segregated Account verlagerte Versicherung zu erzielen.

In diesem Zusammenhang habe ich gestern es geschafft mit AMBAC zu telefonieren.
In dem Gespräch hat man mir folgendes erläutert:

- In dem segreagated Account wurde als Zwecktochterfirma alle risikoreichen Versicherungen in diese verlagert.
- Diese neue Tochterfirma ist ausreichend kapitalisiert worden um alle Forderungen zu bedienen.
- Die ausreichende Kapitalisierung besteht aus einer Einlage von 2 Mrd und weiteren Versicherungen mit denen sich AMBAC gegen Ausfälle jener Positionen abgesichert hat.
- Es sei sehr unwahrscheinlich das die AAC Geld nach legen muss, ist aber nicht ausgeschlossen.
- Die OCI hat die Kontrolle über den segregated Account und damit entscheidenden Einfluss auf die Größen die gezahlt werden. Andere Gesellschaften versuchen hierauf Einfluss zu nehmen.
- Die AAC ist eine von großen Risikopositionen befreite Tochtergesellschaft von AMBAC.
- Die AAC darf bis zum Ende des Moratorium des segregated Account keine Dividendenzahlungen an die Holding tätigen.
- Ein BK der AAC ist zu diesem Zeitpunkt ausgeschlossen.
- Ein BK der Holding ist zu diesem Zeitpunkt ausgeschlossen, kann aber im August 2011 zum BK führen, wenn nicht ausreichend Geld von AAC zur Holding überwiesen werden kann, um fällige Anleihen zu bedienen.
- Die Möglichkeit eines BK im August 2011 bedeutet nicht das dieser eintreten muss. Wichtig ist hierfür das jenes Moratorium vorher endet, wie vom Regulator angestrebt.


#26573 von clinton_s 10.07.10 09:33:47

Die Möglichkeit eines BK im August 2011 bedeutet nicht das dieser eintreten muss. Wichtig ist hierfür das jenes Moratorium vorher endet, wie vom Regulator angestrebt.

Sean Dilweg sagte doch in einem Statement, dass er eine Abwicklung binnen eines halben Jahres anstrebt. Die Maßnahme wurde am 25. März 2010 ergriffen und wird somit im besten Fall im September abgeschlossen sein. Da alle bisherigen Versuche, von außen maßgeblichen Einfluss nehmen zu können, gescheitert sind, gehe ich auch davon aus, dass dieser Zeitplan erfüllt werden kann.

Die Warnung vor der Pleite sollte man derzeit also wie folgt verstehen:

AFG's Haupthahn, was den Geldfluss angeht, ist komplett abgeriegelt. Betriebskosten, Verwaltungskosten, Verbindlichkeiten (Zinsen und in Zukunft die Rückzahlung der Anleihen) könnten aus derzeitiger Sicht nur aus den verfügbaren Mitteln der Holding gezahlt werden. Genau an diesem Punkt sagt Ambac, dass es unter dieser Voraussetzung nicht möglich ist, die Liquidität der Firma über den Fälligkeitstermin der 2011er Bonds hinaus zu gewährleisten.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.803.914 von vermutung am 11.07.10 00:38:04#26577 von Pfandbrief 12.07.10 00:29:10
Das "Telefongespräch" bietet absolut nichts neues, all dies steht so im letzten 10-Q drin, und wurde ausführlich hier besprochen. Einige Sachen sagt BringFrieden bzw. sein Telefonpartner nicht, wie z.B. dass die Abwicklung des Segregated Accounts dazu führt, dass die Holding Anteile an der AAC verliert, weil die über 2 Milliarden hinausgehenden Verpflichtungen mit surplus bonds bedient werden müssen.

Es könnte der Eindruck entstehen, dass mit dem Ende des Moratoriums die Baustelle "segregated account" sozusagen abgeschlossen ist. Das ist selbstverständlich NICHT der Fall, wurde aber auch schon öfters hier gesagt. Das Moratorium ist lediglich der Beginn dieser Abwicklung, es ist nötig um eine formelle Pleite der AAC kurzfristig zu verhindern.

Was genau interessiert Dich nun?
press release

July 29, 2010, 6:50 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:
Ambac Financial Group Inc. is Today's Focus Stock on MicroStockProfit.com

DALLAS, Jul 29, 2010 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- MicroStockProfit.com announces an investment report featuring Altair Ambac Financial Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!abk/quotes/nls/abk (ABK 0.83, -0.01, -0.61%) . The report includes financial, comparative and investment analyses, and recent company news that you need to know to make an educated investment decision.

Our trade alerts and ideas are provided free to investors. Simply use your email address to subscribe with http://www.microstockprofit.com to get the inside track on our next red-hot alert.

The full report is available at: http://www.microstockprofit.com/lp/ABK

ABK is trading above its upper Bollinger Band. Relative to recent price action, the stock is currently overextended and due for either a pause or retracement.

Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) is primarily a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantees and financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors worldwide. ABK's activities are divided into two business segments. The Financial Guarantee segment provides financial guarantees (including credit derivatives) for public finance, structured finance and other obligations. The Financial Services segment provided investment agreements, funding conduits, interest rate, total return and currency swaps, principally to clients of the financial guarantee business. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company discontinued writing new investment agreements and derivative products in its Financial Services segment. Its existing investment agreement and derivative product portfolios are in active runoff, which may include transaction terminations, settlements, restructuring, transfers and natural attrition as contracts mature.

Message Board Search for ABK: http://www.boardcentral.com/boards/ABK

In the report, the analyst notes:

"ABK recently announced first-quarter 2010 net loss of $690.1 million, or net loss of $2.39 per share. This compares to a first-quarter 2009 net loss of $392.2 million, or net loss of $1.36 per share. The first-quarter 2010 results reflect a loss reported as a result of a new consolidations accounting standard.

"ABK recently announced that it has completed the sale of its advisory services subsidiary, RangeMark Financial Services Inc. to the company's management. The sale was completed Friday, July 16, 2010. ABK will continue to contract with RangeMark for certain valuation services for a period of time."

To read the entire report visit: http://www.microstockprofit.com/lp/ABK

See what investors are saying about ABK at penny stock forum

MicroStockProfit.com Disclosure

MicroStockProfit.com is not a registered investment advisor and nothing contained in any materials should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. MicroStockProfit.com is a Web site wholly owned by BlueWave Advisors, LLC. Neither MicroStockProfit.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. Please read our report and visit our Web site, MicroStockProfit.com, for complete risks and disclosures.

This news release was distributed by GlobeNewswire, www.globenewswire.com

SOURCE: MicroStockProfit.com

CONTACT: MicroStockProfit.com
Brian Johnson
info@microstockprofit.com
1-888-307-2850
Buy, Sell, or Hold Ambac Financial?

By Morgan Housel |
July 29, 2010

About two years ago to the day, I wrote that Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK) would burn your portfolio. The company could fail, and even if it didn't, its business was so wrecked that it'd wish it did. You couldn't win.

Readers proceeded to mop the floors with me. "Do you have any understanding of insurance whatsoever?" asked one. "This is totally clueless drivel" said another. I got an email recommending I put myself out of my misery. And so on.

Shares fell 85% over the next eight months. That isn't a boast; I've made my share of awful calls. But today's situation is eerily similar to the last time I chimed in. Shareholders are clinging to hope -- blind Hail Mary hope -- when the odds are stacked so heavily against them, it hurts.

If you're a member of this camp, you may want to consider selling Ambac.

Running on empty
Management practically does, too. "Ambac has insufficient capital to finance its debt service and operating expense requirements beyond the second quarter of 2011 and may need to seek bankruptcy protection," its annual report says. In a more recent filing, the company warns that "as early as the second quarter of 2010, the Company may decide not to pay interest on its debt." That's serious stuff. Management rarely uses the "B" word in official filings until it's a foregone conclusion.

Bondholders have joined arm-in-arm to see this through, forming "an ad hoc committee [that] will try to push the company into a prepackaged bankruptcy," according to Reuters. Should they succeed, you can kiss your shares goodbye.

Gunning for hope
But life doesn't run in certainties. What if Ambac does manage to avoid failure? Hey, it could happen. A savior investor could emerge. Bondholders could donate their investments to shareholders out of charity. Who knows. For the polite sake of argument, let's assume Ambac skirts failure.

Even if it does, shares are still probably worthless.

When you purchase Ambac stock, you're really buying the Ambac holding company. Its main asset is an operating entity called Ambac Assurance. In normal times, Ambac Assurance pays dividends to the holding company, which uses the cash to service its debt, pay dividends to shareholders, and keep the lights on.

But these aren't normal times. In March, a Wisconsin insurance regulator seized $64 billion of Ambac Assurance's contracts linked to toxic mortgage assets. It did so to keep certain policyholders from getting burned. So much money was flying out the door to policyholders of toxic mortgages that municipal bond policyholders were in danger of getting the shaft. Some policyholders, like Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), settled their mortgage-related policies for pennies on the dollar, plus some I.O.U.s.

Here's what's important: As result of the seizure, the Wisconsin regulator now has a straitjacket on certain decisions Ambac Assurance can make. And as Ambac admits, "such decisions will be for the benefit of policyholders and will not take into account the interests of securityholders of Ambac." To boot, "it is highly unlikely that Ambac Assurance will be able to make dividend payments to Ambac for the foreseeable future."

Burn that last sentence into your brain. Even if Ambac manages to skirt bankruptcy, it would still rely on dividends from Ambac Assurance to warrant any value. Yet with the folks in Wisconsin pulling the levers, dividends to the holding company simply aren't feasible. Connect the dots.

Even if Ambac does somehow miraculously clear these hurdles, its ability to write new business will be shattered, given its abysmal credit rating. And even if it could write new businesses, this industry is a disheveled fragment of its former self. Thank the budgetary devastation at state and local governments for that. As Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) also insures munis, said last year: "What mayor or city council is going to choose pain to local citizens in the form of major tax increases over pain to a far-away bond insurer? Insuring [municipal bonds], therefore, has the look today of a dangerous business …"

Fool me once …
So if I'm right, why does Ambac still trade at around a buck a share? Evidently, the market disagrees with me, you might say. Shares jumped more than 17% on Tuesday alone!

But that's routine for a company that may be mumbling its death rattle. It happened with General Motors. It happened with Lehman Brothers. It happened with Washington Mutual, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Wild volatility always accompanies stocks that are likely to become worthless. This can last for several months on end, turbocharged by short covering. It's a predictable trend: Investors get lured in by the fireworks of a surging penny stock, convinced it's an easy way to get rich quick. They pile on one after another, temporarily creating self-fulfilling glimmers of hope, only to be caught in eventual misery as shares become worthless. This happens over and over and over again. Don't get sucked into it.

Do yourself a favor. There are better stocks out there than Ambac.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/07/29/buy-sell-or…
#28057 von BringFrieden
Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.947.402 von SchnerJrg am 07.08.10
Ich bin immer noch sehr positiv eingestellt. Ich versuche mich nur so sachlich wie möglich auszudrücken, damit nicht nachher hier die Meinung herrscht ich würde die Personen zu einem Einstieg in AMBAC einladen, indem ich so etwas wie ein Empfehlung ausspreche.

Mal ganz sachlich gesprochen, hat AMBAC, wie ich es euch hier aufgezeigt hatte an Risikopositionen die für AMABC Kosten in höhe von 7,9 Mrd kosten könnten im ersten Quartal an allen Immobilienversicherungen zusammen gehabt. Alles ohne Ausnahme, meine ich.

Es wurde ganz klar gesagt, dass wenn ABK die restlichen 2 Mrd an die Banken überweist, dann darf die AAC wieder neue Geschäfte abschließen und nicht vorher.

Es wurde ganz klar aufgezeigt, von mir, dass ABK sein Kapital komplett angelegt hat. Die müssen nur die Anleihen wieder verkaufen, bzw. wenn es Termingeschäfte waren, wo ich bei einer Position von 2,6 Mrd nach Bilanz ausgehe, dieses Termingeschäft abwarten.

Ich habe ganz deutlich gezeigt, das ABK 10,6 Mrd an Reserven hat und -1,4 Mrd negatives Eigenkapital. Zuschreibungen auf RMBS wurden zuletzt nicht mehr getätigt.

Die Einnahmen aus den Investment, Versicherungspremiumeinnahmen und Takefuji Einmaleffekt zu dieser Zeit und nächste zu späteren, wurde auch in dem Zeitraum von mir bis zu diesen Q2 angesprochen.

Der Verkauf von RangeMark bedeutet, dass die Holding, welche für August 2011 120 Millionen benötigt, aber nur 110 Millionen nach Q1 hatte, nach der Dividendenzahlung waren es 88 Millionen, ihr Kapital aufgestockt hat. Da kann man sich doch denken das der Sprung von 88 Millionen auf 120 Millionen 22 Millionen beträgt und RangeMark dürfte den Erlös locker gebracht haben, da die Firma 25 Millionen im Geschäftsjahr 09 verdient hat.

Dann kommt noch dazu das die Versicherungen von ABK gegen Ausfälle durch die Versicherungsbehörde aktiviert wurden.
Selbst ohne dieses Geld könnte ABK die Zahlungen tätigen, bis zum Eintritt 2012.

--
Nochmal kurz gesagt:
ABK Holding Kapitalaufstockung von 88 Millionen auf über 120 Millionen durch RangeMarktverkauf ist sehr sehr wahrscheinlich.

ABK kann ohne Probleme die 4,6 Mrd den Banken überweisen, weil sie dieses Kapital zurückgestellt hatten. Hier besteht Null Gefahr.

ABK kann auch alle anderen RMBS-Versicherungen sofort bezahlen, weil auch dieses Geld zurückgestellt worden ist. Auch hiervon geht keine Gefahr mehr aus, aber hier kämpft ABK noch um das eigene Geld.

Stillereserven durch Altinvestments ist auch sehr wahrscheinlich. Wird aber nicht benötigt.

Einzig und allein wichtig ist bei ABK das keine weiteren Kosten dazu kommen, daher hat die Versicherungsbehörde die Versicherungen als Wetten bewertet und im segragated Account eingefroren.

Wenn ABK mit den Banken sich einigt und die Zahlungen, auch mit anderen, per Re-Swap-Geschäft tätigt, dann kann ABK die Umsatzsteuer für sich noch ziehen. Habe ich auch die Tage von Q4 bis heute mal erklärt. Bei 10% sind das bei 7,9 Mrd 790 Millionen. Auch so Effekt den ABK aber nicht mal benötigen würde.

Jetzt frage ich Dich: Sehe ich die Sache positiv oder nicht?
Könnte man jetzt behaupten das ich pushe und verstehst du warum ich vorsichtig sachlich ran gehe?
http://de.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=USOTC%3AABK&p=0&t=37&vol=1
Ambac Withdraws Plans for $1B Offering
By Michael Baron 08/26/10 - 05:17 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ambac Financial Group(ABK) has withdrawn plans filed more than a year ago for the sale of up to $1 billion worth of securities.
The New York City-based company, whose mortgage bond insurance business remains hamstrung from the financial crisis, said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission after Thursday's closing bell that it was withdrawing the S-3 registration statement it filed on April 1, 2009 because it has been unable to meet a deadline to file its 10-K for fiscal 2009, rendering it ineligible to issue securities.

Ambac shares finished Thursday's session down 5 cents, or 8.5%, at 49 cents on volume of 7.6 million, less than half the issue's trailing three-month daily average of 17.8 million. The volatile stock is down more than 50% since the start of 2010, but it was trading above $1 as recently as July 27.

The company has been the subject of speculation about a possible filing for bankruptcy protection for months, and it first raised the possibility of pursuing a prepackaged bankruptcy plan when it filed ts 10-Q for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 back in November of last year.

An Ambac spokesperson wasn't immediately available for comment.

--Written by Michael Baron in New York.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10845871/1/ambac-withdraws-pl…
10.09.2010 19:00
AMBAC Segregated Account Structure Challenged in Wisconsin Court
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17931094-ambac-segregated-account-structure-challenged-in-wisconsin-court-004.htm
Look for Shares of Ambac Financial to Pullback after Yesterday's 18.12% Rise (ABK)
Written on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 1:04am
By Chip Brian

Ambac Financial (NYSE:ABK) traded in a range yesterday that spanned from a low of $0.81 to a high of $0.97. Yesterday, the shares gained 18.12%, which took the trading range above the 3-day high of $0.86 on volume of 53.3 million shares.
Shares of Ambac Financial are currently trading above their 50-day moving average (MA) of $0.61 and above their 200-day MA of $0.85. Look for these MAs to provide support for a short-term pullback in the shares.
SmarTrend is bullish on shares of Ambac Financial and our subscribers were alerted to Buy on October 06, 2010 at $0.70. The stock has risen 36% since the alert was issued.
SmarTrend has the shares in an Uptrend and expects the share price to pullback toward the $0.86 support level. Afterwards, we expect it to move upward with its peers in the SmarTrend Surety & Title Insurance industry.

http://www.mysmartrend.com/news-briefs/news-watch/look-share…


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