Core Laboratories - (Öl)Reservoir-Management - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[R-BgO]

hat einen signifikanten Teil ALLER Ölfelder weltweit unter Vertrag und insoweit einen einzigartigen Einblick in die "decline characteristics";


irre profitabel und bilanziell irre ausgezehrt, wird ähnlich gemanagt wie die Zigarettenhersteller. These dahinter wohl, dass die cash-flows so sicher sind, dass man sie nahezu beliebig leveragen kann.

Als Anlage für mich nicht interessant, aber wahrscheinlich wohl Pflichtlektüre, wenn man sich für den Ölmarkt interessiert.

[R-BgO]

Investorenpräsentation

http://www.corelab.com/investors/cms/docs/presentation/2014_…

[Floorstreet]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.274.651 von R-BgO am 10.11.14 15:34:41

Ich bin schon länger bei Core Labs dabei und halte die Firma für sehr solide und bestens geeignet für Langfristanleger.
Aber trotzdem einmal kurzfristig: Core Labs ist synchron mit allen Aktien, die irgendwas mit Öl zu tun haben, gefallen. Jetzt spinne ich mir zusammen, dass die Optimierung von Bohrlöchern GERADE bei einem niedrigen Ölpreis umso wichtiger ist. Es könnte momentan ein sehr guter Kaufzeitpunkt sein!
Gibt es hier noch Leute, die investiert sind? Wie ist die Meinung zur aktuellen Situation?

[R-BgO]

habe mir jetzt doch eine erste Posi gegönnt;

mal sehen, wie weit es noch runtergeht

[R-BgO]

das EK hamse' jetzt erfolgreich eliminiert...

und sehen den Markt so:


"The Company continues to anticipate a “V-shaped” worldwide activity recovery in 2016 with upticks starting in the third quarter.

Global demand for hydrocarbon-based energy continues to improve, while worldwide crude oil supply peaked in the second half of 2015, beginning a decline that Core believes will continue through all of 2016.

The Company currently believes that U.S. land production peaked in March 2015 and has fallen since then by over 600,000 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”), some of which was offset by new additions to production in the Gulf of Mexico (“GOM”) as a result of recent field developments coming on-line in 2015.

Given the current, depressed commodity prices, Core believes further new additions to production in the GOM will not be sustainable.

Based on currently available worldwide crude oil production data, coupled with internal Core Lab data, Core has increased its estimate of the net worldwide annual crude oil production decline curve rate to 3.1% from 2.5%. This additional 60 basis points decline is predicated on sharper decline curve rates for tight-oil reservoirs and the significant decline in maintenance capital expenditures for the existing crude oil production base.

At current U.S. activity levels, Core predicts 2016 crude oil production to be lower year-over-year; perhaps falling by over 900,000 bopd in 2016. This, coupled with the continuing decline in international production and the continuing increase in global energy consumption, should create a tight crude oil supply market for the second half of 2016, which should lead to increased crude prices and industry activity levels worldwide."

[R-BgO]

ich glaube ich habe schon länger nach einem Grund zum Verkaufen gesucht,

hier ist er:


Lakewood Capital on short positions

Below, I briefly discuss our views on our short positions in two Australian banks and Core Laboratories.

...

Core Laboratories (Short)

Earlier this year, we initiated a short position in Core Laboratories, a $5 billion market capitalization oil services company, and we added to our position during the quarter. We suspect investors in Core Labs believe they own a “safe,” high quality business that is experiencing temporary cyclical pressures, allowing them to participate in meaningful upside when oil prices eventually recover. Remarkably, this optimism has kept the stock at roughly the same price as October 2014 when oil prices were almost double current levels and Core Labs’ 2016 earnings were expected to be four times greater than current 2016 forecasts. Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the stock price, times are tough at Core Labs – so tough in fact, the company recently completed a surprise $200 million equity offering to ensure that it would not trip any debt covenants. At 60x EBIT and 80x earnings, investors are paying a steep price in anticipation of catching the rebound. We believe the pressures facing Core Labs are not going away anytime soon and investors are highly likely to be disappointed in the coming quarters.

Core Labs’ largest segment and crown jewel is its reservoir description business. The company takes rock and fluid samples and analyzes them for customers to quantify the level of hydrocarbons, measure how quickly those hydrocarbons can flow and determine the mix of oil, gas and water in the reservoir. The business has historically grown at reasonable rates with solid EBITDA margins. The next largest segment is production enhancement, a business largely driven by the sale of perforating guns and charges that are used to blast through well casings. The segment is highly dependent on North American shale activity and saw strong growth until 2015. This business has now fallen by more than 90% from its 2014 peak. The final segment is a small business that mainly helps customers study new prospects and is currently experiencing limited profitability due to its heavily discretionary nature.

We believe the company’s reservoir description business is facing multi-year pressures that investors aren’t appreciating. The business actually began to see slowing revenue growth in 2013 and early 2014 with EBITDA margins declining from their peak levels of 2012 even before oil prices started declining in late 2014. We believe Core Labs is facing increased competition from larger oil services peers, the in-sourcing of work by major customers and a general slowdown in ongoing usage of Core Labs’ services by customers who are looking to cut ongoing operating costs given the commodity price environment.

The production enhancement business is facing pressures from a decline in onshore shale activity and increasing competitive activity. Many oil services companies offer competing products, and larger players like Schlumberger and Halliburton include these products as part of broader completion work, offering them advantages over Core Labs. Our research indicates the market is very challenging with products being commoditized and sold at roughly cash breakeven.


=> bin raus bis aufs Erinnerungsstück

[R-BgO]

nicht viel billiger geworden...

[R-BgO]

aktuelles KGV 66

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.426.092 von R-BgO am 31.07.17 13:29:20

aber jetzt...

KGV immer noch 29, aber immerhin >4% Divi