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Covad Communications - heute schiessen die den Vogel ab ! knapp + 100% - 500 Beiträge pro Seite



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Hallo, schaut euch mal Covad Communications an ! Heute sieht es in USA so aus, als ob eine massive Trendwende festzustellen ist.

Weitere Infos in meinem Thread : http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/thread.ph…

Viel Spaß !

V-Mac
dann schau dir morgen mal WKN 923988 Ventro an,wird bestimmt der nächste 100% Knaller
habe mal so auf die schnelle gecheckt, was die überhaupt machen, ventro, meine ich. Also ich wüsste nicht, warums morgen bei denen so besonders abgehen soll.

Gründe bitte !

V.Mac
hi leute,

habe covad bei 3$ in den usa gekauft...hier folgende meldungen von hammer online (www.hammeronline.com).

Friday, December 1, 2000

"Hold on to Covad (COVD:NASDAQ). It?s currently trading at US$2 and is as cheap as they come for an industry leader with triple-digit growth potential.

I put out a buy on Covad below US$6. It was at US$3 by the time you received the newsletter. Obviously, I think this is a better price. The stock was cut in half due to the old class action lawsuit.

I?ve seen this more than once. In fact it happened to Manugistics (MANU:NASDAQ), one of the companies I used in my example when explaining this Covad trade. These lawsuits are generally settled out of court and are paid in stock. So shareholders dilute themselves to pay for a settlement to themselves in shares. The only winners are the lawyers. If you don?t like it, stop electing the bastards to elected office.

Take a one-year view and stick with Covad."



November 14, 2000

"This company might just be the best buy of the year ? and the time to buy it is now!
Make 482% over the next 18 months from this DSL Broadband company.

You know the drill: the dot-com dead pool has been growing faster than the implant business in Nevada. The Globe.com, Dr. Koop.com, CyberianOutpost.com... I could go on but I?ll spare you the litany of bubble-to-bust bromides and trite platitudes regarding tulip manias and Austrian economics.

It?s now November. October has cleared away the last of the bullish sentiment. According to the Consensus Index of Bullish opinion published in Barron?s, the bullish opinions have declined from 45% to 37% over the past three weeks. This is a contrarian indicator, which assumes that most analysts are wrong at turning points in the market.

The same goes for the put/call ratio which has dropped below 0.60. Anything below a 1.0 is a buy; above a 1.70 is a sell. This chart simply measures investor sentiment. Again, it?s a contrary indicator.

The fall to grace
Its time to reevaluate the current investment climate. Over the past year we?ve had a series of bad tidings, ranging from interest rate hikes to a surge in the price of oil.

The Hammer believes that the sell-off in the U.S. markets has overshot. And based on certain factors, now is the time to buy bottomed-out technology stocks. Specifically, in the worst of the lot ? the broadband Internet industry. But first let me tell you why the big picture will become more benign for investors.



<9922_images/trans.gif> The price of oil will drop
Oil is a cyclical industry that takes from one year to eighteen months to cope with changes in supply and demand. I believe the price of oil has topped and is heading back into the low $20s. Prices recently plunged about $1 a barrel in anticipation of a hike in OPEC?s output, their fourth this year.

OPEC has an automatic supply increase mechanism. If oil trades above $28 a barrel for 20 straight business days then OPEC spits out an additional 500,000 barrels a day. Cheaper oil benefits transportation companies. The transports have been on an upswing; utilities have also been rising. Both of these are leading indicators.

<9922_images/util.gif> Drop in rates
Furthermore, there is every indication that the mythical soft landing is going to happen. The wealth effect bubble of personal spending is moderating. Personal consumption rose by just 2 percent in Q3 and core inflation rose by only 1.9 percent. This isn?t the rabid double digit inflation coupled with high energy costs and skyrocketing gold prices that so many 45 year olds keep warning me about. Gold is priced at $265 an ounce. Not even close to $800.

I believe these conditions leave room for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates by the Fed over the next year. Anyone who has been in the market over the past three years knows that when the Fed cuts rates ? Wall Street turns exuberant.

Further catalysts for earnings growth and a bullish 2001 include the massive spending by congress with its record surplus. Pork might be bad for long term economic gains in this country, but it?s fantastic for short-term increases in earnings.

<9922_images/manu.gif> There is only one conclusion you can reach after digesting these disparate circumstances ? The time to buy is now!

Buy the dips for long term gains
Last year, I recommended Manugistics (MANU:NASDAQ) after it got crushed on a slow down in revenues based on Y2K fears. I played the bounce from $13 to $21. It then went to $6 on its way to $107. Volatility can work for you.

Or check out Ciena (CIEN:NASDAQ). Here is a stock that went from $50 to $4 after being dropped by Cisco. It has since climbed back to a high of $154! Outstanding!

<9922_images/cien.gif> Now I?m not saying that every big tech you bottom fish for is going to be a huge winner. I am saying that if you take a two-year time horizon and buy solid companies shortly after the blood bath you will be rewarded.

Slow dial-up connection ahead
One of the many industries that has been taken to the woodshed is broadband Internet. The market has a tendency to sell-off great companies just before they get their act together. Day traders and IPO hypsters, uh I mean underwriters... Make big promises with short time horizons in new technology. When these expectations aren?t fulfilled they sell ? fast and furious.

And given that there are no fundamentalist value fund guys following these types of plays, they tend to lose up to 90 percent of their value. This is where The Hammer works for you.

With a broader understanding of business models, a shakeout of the wannabes, consolidation in the industry and this year?s macro-economic picture... I believe that certain market leaders ?which are expected to grow more than 300 percent next year and are trading at less than book value! ? could legitimately increase by more than 500 percent over the next year and a half!

The company I?m about to elucidate on below has the lead in market share and is trading under $6. Preposterous.

Problem solvers
If you?d let me switch gears here I?d like to say that the Internet still sucks. I am disgruntled that the Internet remains impossibly slow. So slow, in fact, that three-quarters of all online shoppers abandon their carts before checking out. More than once, Datek has told me to try again later. That?s reprehensible. And I have a T-1 line.

And forget about dialups at home. Every time your mother-in-law calls, you get kicked out of your favorite MP3 site.

These problems were supposed to be solved by now. We were promised speed, movement, go ? go. I want bits and bytes zooming around like Jeff Gordon at Taladaga. But no, don?t even try to go to your favorite portal on a Friday afternoon when the whole working population of North America is visiting NOOF sites or checking out the latest exploding whale.

Fiber to the home, satellites, DSL ? these were the problem solvers. What happened?

Digital Subscriber Line
DSL is broadband to the home that allows for fast Internet service over existing copper wiring. It is a technology that has been around for 11 years but hasn?t been implemented to any great extent, due to the fact that regional Bell operating companies (RBOC?s) have been lethargic and dull in their implementation.

RBOC?s must flip a switch at their central office (hook up a node at their DSLAM). They are descended from a monopoly and believe that they shouldn?t cooperate with any new idea that might increase competition.

There have been a series of court battles to speed up the process. Covad has won these fights, including a recent $750,000 lawsuit against Bell South. Furthermore, new legislation and an enforcement arm of the FCC seems to have had the effect of speeding up the cooperation of these RBOC?s. The Hammer believes that the customer service problems and time drags for installing DSL will be solved going forward.

<9922_images/covd.gif> The Covad story ? a beaten down leader
Once upon a time, Covad was the darling of Wall Street. In fact a mere 9 months ago, in March, its share price was at $66. Covad came out of the gate in February of 1999 riding the wave of Internet mania. Retail investors and analysts alike saw the four-digit growth rate and sent the company into the stratosphere.

We all remember March of this year, when bubble finally burst. The liquidity dried up and the dot-coms were sent to money hell. The good were taken down with the bad.

And then last week the bottom fell out. Covad announced that it has had problems collecting money from smaller ISP?s and telecoms. This is due to the massive shakeout of the telecom industry. Covad missed its revenue growth numbers by a mere $14 million (money that it is still due and might be collected in Q4). The market rewarded this announcement by sending its shares into the toilet.
REVENUE Note: Units in Thousands of U.S. Dollars
1997
1998
1999
2000
MAR
0
186
5,596
41,807
JUN
0
809
10,833
58,160
SEP
0
1,565
19,141
66,653*
DEC
26
2,766
30,918
?
Totals
26
5,326
66,488
166,620*
EARNINGS PER SHARE
1997
1998
1999
2000
MAR
-0.004
-0.260
-0.373
-0.730
JUN
-0.036
-0.740
-0.407
-0.860
SEP
-0.107
-1.227
-0.470
-1.220*
DEC
-0.164
-1.313
-0.530
?
Totals
-0.311
-3.540
-1.780
-2.810

Massive growth, low down payment
But let me remind you. The Internet is real. Hundreds of millions of people use it every day. Money will be made. And the time to buy is when nobody wants anything to do with it. Over the last year, Covad grew revenue by 1148%. Granted, it?s growth off of a low base, but in 2001 that number is expected to be 300%.

That means Covad is expected to have almost one billion in revenue next year. Its current market capitalization is only $800 million!

It is trading less than book and at less than one times forward revenue. That?s as cheap as they come for an industry leader with triple digit growth!

And it gets better!
The market acceptance of DSL is only at 3 percent. Covad owns 17 percent of this three percent. There is plenty of room for fiber to the home (our MDTV play) and DSL, as well as cable. Technologically, cable isn?t up to snuff for two-way internet broadband capability. So, start from that basic idea that everyone wants broadband, and DSL should end up with some portion of market share.

RBOC deals and desires
The biggest concern most people have regarding bombed out companies is that they won?t be around in a couple of years. Covad recently signed a monumental distribution deal with SBC Communications. SBC is the only telecom stock that has actually gone up over the past year.

SBC will resell Covad DSL connections nationally. This deal guarantees Covad $600 million in revenue from those sales over the next six years. Furthermore, SBC will buy 6% of Covad for $150 million. That price equals SBC?s buy at $15 on the share price. That?s more than a 150% premium over Covad?s current market value.

Given the 300 percent growth rate going forward, the new enforcement of competitive legislation, the SBC partnership and the ever important possibilities of a buyout by a larger telecom, such as AT&T... Covad seems like a screaming buy under $6 a share."



ich bin mit dem heutigen tag wieder plus minus - aber wenn ihr die bewertung seht, sind 3 $ immer noch lächerlich.

tip: auf covad.com das investor information package bestellen (unter ir)

gruss,
jockey
Normal, daß heute ein Teil der gestern erzielten Gewinne wieder abgegeben werden.

Und News gibts auch zur Einschätzung der finanziellen Lage bei COVD und die weiteren Aussichten fürs nächste Jahr.

UPDATE 2-Covad`s slower growth to produce smaller sales
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2000 10:54 AM
- Reuters

(recasts, adds details throughout)

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - High-speed Internet access company Covad Communications Inc. on Tuesday outlined plans to slow its growth in order to save cash and cut its losses, but its stock fell after it said revenues through 2001 would fall below Wall Street expectations.

Shares of Covad (NASDAQ NM:COVD) were down 15/32, or 15 percent, to $2-9/16 on Nasdaq. Covad`s stock has lost 93 percent of its value this year amid a broad sell-off in technology stocks.

Covad said it would concentrate on filling its existing network with more customer traffic rather than adding new lines and extending its geographic reach.

It also plans to focus on serving financially secure customers, renegotiate some client contracts and exit others, and reduce its exposure to customers who cannot pay their bills.

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Covad is one of several Internet-access companies that have been hurt as their Internet service provider customers have failed to pay for services received or have declared bankruptcy.

Covad, which provides wholesale high-speed Internet access over telephone lines using digital subscriber line technology (DSL), recently restated its third-quarter results and said it would cut its work force by 13 percent.

"To conserve cash, we will go only after the most attractive business, which will mean less (access) lines and less revenues than previously expected. This will significantly improve our cash position by reducing EBITDA losses and capital expenses," Covad`s interim chief executive Frank Marshall said in a conference call with analysts and reporters.

EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Due to the slower growth plan, Covad said installed lines in service for the fourth quarter are expected to be 270,000. It said lines in service at the end of 2001 will total between 440,000 and 460,000, which is below Wall Street expectations of 680,000.

Slower line growth will cut revenues. The company said it now expects revenues of $60 million to $65 million for the fourth quarter and $380 million to $390 million for 2001.

Covad also said it expects to post a fourth-quarter loss on an EBITDA basis of $180 million to $190 million, and it will take a restructuring charge related to the job cuts of up to $20 million as well.

While Covad did not supply per-share figures in its forecast, analysts had been expecting the company to report a fourth-quarter loss of $1.34 per share, according to First Call. Analysts expect the company to lose $5.46 per share in 2001, according to First Call.

The decision to spend less money to expand its business will shrink 2001 EBITDA losses to a range of $450 million to $470 million, compared with current expectations of losses of $550 million, Covad said.

"We are going to grow the business with lines that get us to break-even and profitability faster," said Covad Chairman Chuck McMinn.

Covad said 14 of its Internet Service Provider (ISP) customers, who sell DSL directly to consumers, are "troubled," and four of them have filed for bankruptcy protection. They represent about 26 percent of Covad`s installed lines.

About 32 percent of its lines include "potentially troubled" customers who are currently paying their bills on time, it said. The other 42 percent of its lines include financially sound customers such as AT&T Corp. (NYSE:T).

Covad on Monday announced a program for its DSL customers that would allow them to switch from these troubled ISPs to others with no fee.

Other DSL companies facing problems include DSL.net Inc. (NASDAQ NM:DSLN) and NorthPoint Communications Group Inc. (NASDAQ NM:NPNT), whose financial deterioration led No. 1 U.S. local phone company Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) to cancel its planned $800 million acquisition of NorthPoint.


Bitte beachtet auf Grund der reduzierten Erwartungen auch die weiter oben gepostete Meldung von jockey bzw. Hammer, die von ganz anderen Zahlen ausgehen.

bei Hammer : Revenues bis 1 Billion(=Milliarde in D) USD, bei Covad selbst (wohl auch realistischer) nur rund 390 Mio USD.


Aber auf Dauer bin ich zuversichtlich !

V.Mac
Schießen und (ab-)geschossen werden!?
Gibt es hier Parallelen zu Fantastic (925476)????
Für differenzierte Antwort wäre ich dankbar.
Gruß aus Berlin
Also zumindest der Geschäftsbetrieb ist nicht vergleichbar !

Differenziert genug ?

V.Mac
Vielen Dank V. Mac! Bist du Minimalist? Nicht immer ist
weniger mehr. Du bist doch einer der Protagonisten der
Covad Aktie. Wie wär`s mit einem "BIG MAC"?
Bernardo
@ bernardo

Danke; genug der Blumen !

Protagonist hin oder her, das spielt leider bei der Beurteilung und der Kursentwicklung einer Aktie keine Rolle.

Als Minimalist lasse ich mich gerne bezeichnen, weil halt doch manchmal weniger mehr ist.

Aber noch mal zur ersten Frage:
Es gibt natürlich jede Menge Aktien, Covad und Fantastic sind ja nur zwei Beispiele, die volles Rohr den Bach runter sind. Mir fällt z.B. spontan noch eine Santa Cruz, Softbank, Hikari Tsushin oder auch Davnet und jede Menge weitere Zockerpapiere ein. Aber deshalb sind sie längst noch nicht alle vergleichbar, auch wenn der Kursverlauf (verlust) ähnlich aussieht.

Deshalb meine vorhergehende Antwort.

Man sollte deshalb auch bei der Einschätzung der Entwicklung in der Zukunft die Größe bzw. Marktstellung der Firma mit beachten. Und da ist z.B. COVAD meines Wissens immer noch Marktführer (in USA). Was man wiederum von Fantastic nicht behaupten kann, oder ?

Davon abgesehen, könntest du deine Frage mal etwas deutlicher formulieren ? Vielleicht kann ich ja dann immer noch ein paar euphorische Sätze zu COVAD zum Besten geben.

Bis bald

V.Mac
müsste eigentlich heissen: gestern schiessen sie den Vogel ab.

Grund für runde 120 % Plus:

Covad more than doubles (COVD) By Tomi Kilgore
Shares of broadband Internet access provider Covad Communications (COVD) have now more than doubled, trading up 90 cents, or 120 percent, at $1.65. The last time the stock saw that level was Mar. 13. The stock`s 52-week high is $5, reached on Jan. 29, versus its 52-week low of 32 cents hit on Oct. 9. Earlier, the company said it anticipated emerging from bankruptcy on Dec. 20 (see 12:21 item). Also helping the stock may be a Dow Jones report that said two company executives had purchased a total of 1.6 million common shares in November (see 10:41 item).

Schön so !

V.Mac
@V.Mac

Hallo,wie ich gemerkt habe beschäftigst Du dich mitCovadc. Aktien, was denkst Du, geht Covadc. nach oben ?(Kursziel?)
Würde mich deine Meinung dazu Interessieren!
Ich Habe bei Island nach Covadc. gesucht,geht leider nicht.
Hast Du einen anderen Tip?? (Realtime USA)

gruss Tektabanca
@ Tektabanca

Danke für deine Nachfrage, aber der Oberchef bin ich bei Covad auch nicht. In der Regel bilde ich mir meine Meinung aufgrund der Meldungen, die man über und von Covad hört.

Sieh dich halt mal in den bereits existierenden "informativen" Covad Threads um.

Der hier dient ja nur zum 100%-Kurssteigerung-Bekanntgeben.

Davon abgesehen, meine kurze Einschätzung: Wenn und nur wirklich wenn das Konkursverfahren tatsächlich so "glimpflich" wie geplant abgewickelt wird und die nächsten Quartale auch das entsprechende Wachstum aufweisen und die Börse allgemein wieder etwas besser aussieht, ja dann denke ich schon an die bereits in anderen Threads prophezeiten Kurse von wieder über 10 USD.

wegen Realtime: www.freerealtime.com (? hoffe die Adresse gibts noch)

Ansonsten mein Lieblingskurslieferant aus den USA ist Bigcharts.com, mit 15 -20 min Verzögerung, aber sonst ganz gut.

V.Mac
@ V.mac
Danke für deine Antwort!
Hat mir schon geholfen,werde wahrscheinlich morgen
nachkaufen!
Ich persöhnlich halte von Covad viel,ich denke (hoffe)Covad hat die schlimmste Phase überstanden,was nur sehr wenige Unternehmen erreicht haben.

Gruss Tektabanca
Jaja, so kanns gehen, kauf ich heut nicht, kauf ich morgen......, leider viel teurer als gestern.

Ich habs ja auch versaut, wegen ein paar Cents zu geizigem Limit Mitte Oktober.

Heute ists auf jeden Fall wieder schön, was Covd angeh.



Covad extends gains
Plus: PayPal gets preliminary pricing

By Bambi Francisco, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:52 AM ET Dec. 17, 2001




SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Covad Communications shot up as much as 52 percent Monday in anticipation of the DSL provider emerging from bankruptcy protection this week.

When the high-speed Internet access provider emerges on Thursday, it will be one of the few telecom companies to successfully emerge from Chapter 11.

"Fewer than 5 percent of telecom companies emerge from Chapter 11," said Jack Williams, executive director of the America Bankruptcy Institute.



Covad Communications (COVD: news, chart, profile) ran up more than 35 percent to $1.93 on heavy volume in recent trading. Shares have recovered since trading in the 30-cent range between July and mid-October.

By early November, shares were nearing $1. Frank Marshall, interim CEO and a director, bought a total of 1.5 million shares during the month, while Robert Hawk, a member of the board bought 100,000 shares on Nov. 26 at $1.04 each. By November 13, the announcement of SBC Communications` (SBC: news, chart, profile) $150 million funding helped Covad`s shares spike above $1.

Covad`s emergence from reorganization and use of Chapter 11 as a financial tool to relinquish $1.4 billion in debt is a model for many companies still struggling under the crushing weight of debt.

Rather than raise capital and then re-negotiate its debt, co-founder Chuck Haas said the company went straight to creditors first and began slashing expenses last year. "This was a year-long process," Hass said in an interview with CBS.MarketWatch.com. See interview with Covad`s Haas.

Other telecom companies may have waited too long to restructure their debt, leaving themselves little time and leverage to have a successful restructuring that leaves shareholders with a majority-ownership of the company. Indeed, Exodus Communications (EXDS: news, chart, profile) (EXDSQ: news, chart, profile), ExciteAtHome (ATHMQ: news, chart, profile), Rhythms NetConnections and NorthPoint have fallen into Chapter 11 and are among those that haven`t emerged, leaving shareholders with nothing.

XO Communications (XOXO: news, chart, profile) is still in the process of working through its debt load. Shares of XO dropped 43 percent to 8 cents.

By restructuring early, Covad was able to stay focused on operations. For the first nine months of this year, the company generated $243.1 million, up 135 percent over the same period a year ago. Loss from operations in the same period fell from $500 million last year to $424.6 million, including $19.6 million in charges for restructuring and adjustments to the recorded value of long-lived assets.

Now, the company will end the year with $300 million in cash, a $20 million burn-rate, said Haas.

Getting bloated

Covad went public in January 1999 at split-adjusted price of $8. At the time, Bear Stearns helped the company raise $161 million in capital. In June 1999, the company raised another $327 million in a follow-on offering. By November of 1999, the company raised another $642.8 million through Bear Stearns. The company raised $636 million in straight debt over two years beginning in February 1999. Covad also raised a convertible debt offering of $500 million in September 2000, according to Dealogic.

Speaking of raising funds in the public market, PayPal (PAPXX: news, chart, profile), which enables payments over the Internet, set its IPO price range of between $12 and $14. Salomon Smith Barney is leading the $70 million offering. PayPal`s service is widely adopted on EBay`s (EBAY: news, chart, profile) site even though the online auctioneer has a competing service called Online Payments, formerly known as Billpoint. According to PayPal`s filing, for the nine months ending September 30, 2001, about 68 percent of dollar payments made through PayPal were settlements of purchases made at online auction sites, particularly EBay.

Other online payment providers include Yahoo (YHOO: news, chart, profile) PayDirect and C2it, which is offered by Citigroup. C2it has existing arrangements with AOL Time Warner (AOL: news, chart, profile) and Microsoft (MSFT: news, chart, profile), according to PayPal`s filing


V.Mac
Ich will hier auch mal wieder was zu besten geben.

100 Prozent und mehr hatten wir zwar in letzter Zeit nicht an einem Tag, aber doch in wenigen Wochen.


So kanns mal weitergehen!

V.Mac
Deutliche 52-Wochenhoch per Schlußkurs 15.8.03 !

USD 2,32 !

Weiter so!

V.Mac
Hallo !
Ich habe mal ein paar Fragen zu Covd, weil ich nicht mehr auf dem laufenden bin:
Was hat sich denn bei Covad neues ergeben, das es eine solche Erholung gibt ?
Ich bin seit den " Höhenflug-Zeiten" vor 3 Jahren dabei und bin überrascht über die Kursentwichlung.....
Hat sich die Zahlungsmoral der Covd-Kunden verbessert?
Ist Covd wieder für die NASDAQ Relistung geplant ?
Was ist mit der Klage gegen das Board of Directors von Covad ?
Was ist von den beiden Analystenempfehlungen der letzten Tage zu halten ?
Wie sehen Eure Kursziele(kurz/mittel und langfristig) aus ?
Danke für Eure Hilfe !

:O


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