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Zweitgrößtes Kanadisches Bankhaus warnt vor steigenden Ölpreisen
(10.10.2000)
Die zweitgrößte kanadische und achtgrößte nordamerikanische Bank Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) ist der Aufassung, daß die Welt dabei ist, das Produktionsmaximum von Erdöl zu erreichen. Die Analysten vermuten, daß der Ölpreis im Jahr 2001 auf etwa $ 40 und innerhalb der kommenden drei bis vier Jahre auf etwa $50 ansteigen werde. Zwar sei die Wirtschaft heute 30 - 35 % weniger vom Öl abhängig als vor 20 Jahren, doch müsse sie in den kommenden zehn Jahren um weitere 30 % unabhängiger werden.

Eine Analyse der Bank kommt zu der Einschätzung, daß in den kommenden zehn Jahren Produktionskapazitäten mit etwa 50 Millionen Barrel Tagesproduktion neu angeschlossen werden müßten, um den Produktionsrückgang aus bestehenden Ölfeldern wenigstens auszugleichen. Die Weltproduktionskapazität beträgt heute ungefähr 77 Millionen Barrel Tagesproduktion. (Analyse siehe: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/Or28.pdf )
Ein Artikel hierzu in Ottawa Citizen vom 6. Oktober 2000 (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/001006/4643011.html )
Das heißt doch in etwa daß die Aktien der Ölfirmen in der Zukunft
noch weiter steigen.
Kennst du vielleicht welche in die man jetzt investieren könnte?
die gruenen warnen unabhaengig davon vor steigenden rohstoffpreisen in deutschland !°

es lebe die oekosteuer !
Opec plant neue Fördermengen - Kürzungen !

Man ist doch Scheich :D

30 $
Na caldor, vielleicht sind ein paar "Grüne" unter den Scheichs. :laugh:

dickdiver :D
"The world`s leaders have a duty to protect the global environment. It is a duty which should take precedent over politics and self-interest. The rejection of the Kyoto Protocol is a contravention of that duty."

"We cannot help but ask whether this decision was taken for domestic political reasons, rather than from an environmental or scientific point of view."

"If that is the case, we will ask the people of America to think hard about the results of the recent presidential election, and to ask hard questions about where its leadership is taking them."

Makiko Tanaka, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, in the first official unified Asian response to the US`s withdrawal from the environmental treaty
US Faces Asian Criticism Over Kyoto Stance
By David Ibison Financial Times (UK) April 8, 2001


The longer Mr Bush and other politicians focus on the short-term plight of outmoded sectors such as coal-burning utilities that are saddling us with the costs of air pollution and inefficient technologies, the slower they will be to grasp the economic as well as the environmental advantages of establishing leadership in new energy technologies such as solar power and hydrogen fuel cells.
Sanford E. Gaines, Professor, University of Houston Law Centre - Financial Times (UK)

-- Unintended Consequences --
The Middle East Perspective:
U.S Disregard of Climate Change Effects on the Third World
Will Signal a Dramatic and Permanent Increase in Petroleum Prices;
Oil Producing Countries Will Install Essential Renewable Infrastructures
As Developed Countries Wastefully Devour Remaining Reserves


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

American Growth Is on the Back of Cheap Oil
by Najib Saab The Daily Star (Lebonan) April 2, 2001

Wise management of oil resources now, coupled with investing the revenues in advanced technologies, will ultimately result in securing a continued role for oil-producing countries in a future economy inevitably based on renewable energy.

Americans claim that they have an energy shortage which prevents them from adhering to measures previously agreed upon in Kyoto. But the Kyoto agreement was mainly about reducing carbon dioxide emissions, not about energy. While President Bush said that the US would be working with allies to reduce greenhouse gases, he confirmed that he will “not accept a plan which will harm our economy and hurt American workers.”

Japan and Pacific Island states threatened by rising seas condemned the decision. The European Parliament said in a statement that Europe must stand up to irresponsible US policies by rejecting them at the petrol pump, adding that “unless the US rethinks its position, direct boycott is the only language they will understand.”

It boils down to a war of economic interests. The US wants cheap oil to fuel its economy, asking others to swallow the consequences.

...Until alternative energy sources become a fait accompli, the producing countries must be able to get a realistic price for their oil which reflects economic value and demand. This will allow oil-producing countries to invest excess revenue in projects to develop new energy technologies, which will enable them to continue to produce energy and export it. However, this time it will be energy derived from the wind and the sun, both abundant resources which can be viably harnessed in the Arab region. more

Tapping the Sun as a Limitless Source of Energy
by Duraid Al Baik Gulf News Dubai, UAE March 10, 2001

Fossil fuel is the main source of electricity production with more than 75 per cent of the world`s energy generators operating on gas or diesel. Many scientists feel that the world should cooperate to develop sustainable sources of energy that can supply the world with renewable energy and decrease pressure on the current sources of power.

Such calls have always been viewed with suspicion, especially among major oil-producing nations. The reason being oil-rich countries like the UAE have always depended on these conventional sources as their main source of income.

In the UAE, however, the strong opposition to developing renewable sources of energy has been fading in recent years. Policy-makers have realised the advantages of developing `clean` sources of energy as they benefit the economy by preserving the main wealth of the nation.

A number of analysts believe that preserving oil so that it can be put to better use would save billions of dollars being spent in producing electricity. The Photovoltaic (PV) conference, which was held at the University of Sharjah last month, represents an unusual turning point in the way the Gulf perceives solar energy.

"We need to look at oil as a source of energy that must not be wasted like we are doing now. We should use the clean source of the sun to produce electricity so that oil can be preserved and put to greater use when it is really needed."
Dr Abdullah Al Najjar, head of the Research Centre at the University of Sharjah and Secretary General of the Arab Science and Technology Foundation (ASTF)

...Lawrence L. Kazmerski, Director of the Colorado-based National Centre for Photovoltaics, said the recent change in the UAE`s perception of solar power is astonishing, and at the same time encouraging, because it is an oil rich nation.

Kazmerski stressed that a better understanding of solar power and the UAE`s interest to support research and development of Photovoltaics applications would benefit the nation. "The World Bank projects that the world`s consumption of electricity will increase to 5 million megawatts by the year 2020, up from about 2.9 million in 1995," he said.

According to the petroleum industry, Kazmerski said, the world`s supply of fossil fuel will start running out between the years 2020 and 2060. Renewable energy, including solar power, would also help in keeping the environment clean. more

BMW to Complete Hydrogen Plant Feasibility Study
Gulf News January 30, 2001

The BMW Group expects to submit its feasibility report on a proposed hydrogen production plant in Dubai by April, a senior official said. If it proves feasible, the output will be exported to Europe for use in hydrogen-powered automobiles. Dubai`s geographical position in the sunbelt and closeness to Europe are considered favourable factors.

The study was conducted at the request of Dubai authorities last year. It is being conducted by experts with the Technical University of Munich.

"Hydrogen is not a threat to oil. As such, only 10 per cent of global oil production is used for vehicles. Though current production methods are expensive, hydrogen is very much the fuel of the future. But the infrastructure capability has to come from governments."
Robert Bailey-McEwan, regional managing director of the BMW Group
@dickdiver :
guter einwand . aber die oelscheichs l achen sich wohl eher ueber die gruenen kaputt ! denn sie befolgen ja nur eine alte gruenen forderung : der liter sprit muss 5 mark kosten !
Die Schätzungen der CDU lagen bei 4,25.:D

Die haben sich bloß nicht getraut das zu veröffentlichen.


antarra
Genau das, was hier gerne kolportiert wird, Oel über 40$ etc., ist volkswirtschaftlicher Schwachsinn. Genau deshalb ist Saudi-Arabien bemüht, den Oelpreis in einer Range von 25-30$ zu halten, und eben bitte nicht wesentlich darüber.
Und dies nur aus Eigeninteresse; Höhere Preise bedeuten Konkurrenz, und damit eine wesentlich niedrigere Fakturierung ihres genauso begrenzten Einsatzes.
Wer das nicht wahrhaben will, sollte sich besser zu solchen Geschichten nicht äußern...

Kann ich bei Bedarf auch noch weiter begründen...

WBB
@WBB

Falsch !

Es geht hier um die maximal mögliche Fördermenge, die kann die maximal mögliche Nachfrage nicht mehr decken !

Deswegen hat Indien z.B. die Bildung einer strategischen Reserve beschlossen ! :D

M_B_S
-EU wants control of Norwegian oil supplies in crisis situation

The European Union would want to take over the right to control Norway`s oil reserves in a crisis situation.

This is the essence of a proposal for a new EU directive, according to an article in the Sunday Times.

According to the article, in case of an energy crisis, the EU would want the right to take control of the member nations` oil resources. This could also involve Norway, through the European Economic Agreement (EEA), says Norway`s EU Ambassador, Einar Bull, to Aftenposten.

The British Government is strongly critical to the EU proposal.

The Norwegian Oil and Energy Minister, Olav Akselsen is not informed about the proposal, and neither is Norway`s EU ambassador Einar Bull, apart from the article in the Sunday Times.

(NRK)


Ja, die Zeichen verdichten sich ! :(
>Falsch !

Nein, richtig!

>Es geht hier um die maximal mögliche Fördermenge, die kann die maximal mögliche Nachfrage nicht mehr decken !

>Deswegen hat Indien z.B. die Bildung einer strategischen Reserve beschlossen ! :D

Richtig (Indien) und auch richtig, die max. mögliche Nachfrage ist längst (und auch schon lange) unterdeckt, wie bei jeder knappen Ressource; Einfach und wahr.

Ok, erstmal ein paar ganz grundlegende Dinge:
a)Die Kosten von Erdölproduktion sind nahezu zu 100% fix.
b)Sehe ich eine Opportunität, risikoadjustiert unter dem durchschnittlichen Marktpreis ein Gut zu produzieren, dann werde ich dies tun.
c)Sehe ich Konkurrenz am Horizont, dann werde ich sehen, daß ich, der günstiger produziert, solange unter Kosten (incl. Risiko, nichts anderes als Kosten) meines Konkurrenten verkaufe, als eben möglich.
d)Verkaufserlöse morgen sind ungleich der Erlöse heute.
e)Die Stabilität der OPEC-Staatshaushalte hängt direkt proportional mit den Erdölpreisen zusammen.
f)Ein Marktaustritt ist genau dann sinnvoll, wenn ich dauerhaft unter variable Kosten produziere.

So, das sind Grundlagen, die Schlußfolgerung + Beispiel gibt´s gleich...

WBB
WBB

Gut ! aber :

Ein Grundgesetz der Marktwirtschaft :

Aus einer begrenzten Ressource maximalen Ertrag zu erziehlen, zumal wenn man Monopolist ist !


In einer Monopol - Situation ( Opec ) sind Deine Argumente nicht stechend !

Leider ! :(

Sie ändern nichts entscheidendes an der Grundsituation !

Knappes Gut trifft auf immer größere Nachfrage !

Damit steigt der Preis !

Welche Konkurrenz soll die Opec denn fürchten ?

Höchsten ein substitutionelles Gut wie Wasserstoff !

Doch der politische Wille dies zu fördern z.B. den USA
( grösster Nachfrager) ist bei BUSH - Oelmann gleich NULL ! :(

Die Reserven der Opec werden zunehmend wichtiger, da die Oelproduktion der USA + Europa ( Nordsee ) ca. 2015 zum erliegen kommt ! d.h. die Opec muss diese Fördermengen ersetzen !

Aber warum sollte sie dies tun bei explodierenden Preisen und einer Monopol - Situation ?

Denn wenn sie die Fördermengen entsprechend erhöht erschöpfen sich die eigenen Reserven umso schneller !

CU @ 40 $ noch in 2001

Noch ein Tip :

HTTP://www.energiekrise.de

M_B_S
So, weiter im Text:

M.E. wird in naher Zukunft der Erdölpreis niemals über längeren Zeitraum die Marke von 40$ überschreiten; Später sicher, schon ob des realen Kaufkraftverlusts gegenüber der absoluten Veränderung. Wesentlich später natürlich wegen einer extremen Knappheit, da sind wir aber lange nicht.

So, warum sollten die OPEC-Staaten, welche mit großen Anteil den Rohölpreis bestimmen, diesen nicht über eine gewisse Grenze* per sofort steigen lassen? Wäre es doch opportun bspw. die Produktion um eklatante 10%+- zurückzufahren. Die neg. Mindererlöse aus der Menge wären doch lange durch (pos.) Preisdifferenzen um etliches übertroffen. Warum nicht?

Sehen wir zurück. Als in den 70ern die Preise über längeren Zeitraum explodierten, wurde es opportun (s.b)) bspw. verhältnismäßig teuer in Meeren nahe der Küste nach Öl zu bohren, oder auch Öl kostenaufwendig aus gut zu erreichendem Gestein zu pressen. Genau das wurde getan.
So, nachdem also gerade solche Produktionsstätten erschlossen sind, steigt das Angebot sprunghaft (s.a. Schweinezyklus/Halbleiterzyklus). Die Nachfrage bleibt konjunkturabhängig. Der Preis fällt, aber durch a) sind die teuren Felder in Nordsee, Kanada etc. weiter zu betreiben; Die Männe auf den Bohrinseln sind lächerlich gering var. Kosten erzeugende Faktoren. Das Angebot bleibt (s.f)).

Der Preis fällt im Tief auf 9$ p.B.. Nicht nur die Haushalte der weniger reichen OPEC-Staaten kommen erheblich in Bedrängnis, nein, in Zeit der fallenden Preise ist man gezwungen in ebendiesen Ländern an der OPEC vorbei zu exportieren (Venezuela via Brasilien AFAIR).
So, nun, in Zeiten der Hochkonjunktur und nach der Reglementierung von Ausreißern, gelangt man zu einem auch durch Spekulanten getriebenen Preis von 35$ p.B..
Nachdem man einen Fehler bekanntlich nicht wiederholt, wird nun der Preis durch Produktionsausweitung gesenkt; man verlautbart, i.e. Saudi-Arabien verlautbart (als einzig anpassungsfähiger Staat), ein p.B. Preis von 25$ sein langfristig (IMO etwa 5Jahre) die angestrebte Benchmark.
Genau das unterstützt von mir Genanntes zusätzlich, denn auf einmal wird im Jahre zweitausend die Opportunität Erdölförderung in hoher See etc. wieder wirtschaftlich interessant, und das wird man seitens der OPEC nicht zulassen (s.u.a. d)&e)). man kann es sich einfach nicht mehr leisten lange Jahre (des relativen Erdölreichtums) mit niedrigen Weltmarktpreisen zu agieren; Nein, vielmehr sind später zu erzielende Preise auch finanzmathematisch weniger berauschend (Nichteinmal die Häfte wert in 10 Jahren bei 8%Zinsen). Angestrebt ist ergo eine Preisrange zw. 25$ und 30$; Sicherlich mit Spitzen in beiderlei Richtung. Die Volatilität in der Grundlage der Staatshaushalte Erdöl herauszunehmen ist konsequentes Eigeninteresse der OPEC, genauso wie ein langfristig definitiv hoher Preis von 25-30$.

Mein Post "Falsch" zu nennen ist schlicht falsch.

Deine Umweltaktien werden dadurch ja nicht schlechter; Die Bestrebung deren Bemühung nicht nur via Subvention wirtschaftlich zu gestalten bleibt und ist (sehr) langfristig mehr als notwendig.
Nur aufgrund des Zeitwertes heutigem Kapitals (c.p.;s.o.) wird der Erdölpreis vorerst nicht eklatant steigen.

WBB
@WBB

Noch 2001 , die Wette steht bei 40$ :D

Dein Post ist falsch wenn ich recht habe ! Wenn nicht .....

Der Sommer kommt : strong driving season ahead ! ;)

CU ;)
Neeee, da verstehst du mich falsch bzw. du hast das Post nicht (richtig) gelesen. Es geht nicht um spekulative Ausschläge, selbstverständlich kann es die geben, diese werden aber genausowenig von der Erdölindustrie gemacht, wie zu diesen eine nennenswerte Nachfrage fakturiert...

WBB
Du versuchst einfach den Aussagegehalt meines Posts zu ignorieren; Da geht es um mehr als kurzfristige Spekulation...
Dort wird "Wirtschaft" gemacht, nicht an kurz ausschlagenden Terminbörsen...

Wollen wir diskutieren, oder was...?

WBB
@ WBB

Diskutieren ! Gut

Also was sagst du zu dem Argument, daß in naher Zukunft die Krisensituation im Sept.- Okt 2000 :die Nachfrage überschreitet bei weitem das Angebot, wieder eintritt !




The Global Hubbert Peak
Forecast of Future Global Oil Output



Wie auf der Grafik zu sehen ist die maximal mögliche Fördermenge erreicht !

Zahlen zum Erdöl:



Bisherige Förderung: 820 Mrd. Barrel
Bekannte Reserven:


827 Mrd. Barrel
Was wahrscheinlich noch gefunden wird:


153 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1962: 41,0 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1997:


7,1 Mrd. Barrel
Jahresproduktion 1999:


22,0 Mrd. Barrel
Neufunde 1993-97: 27,1 Mrd. Barrel
Produktion 1993-97:

Derzeitige Welt-Tagesproduktion


125,0 Mrd. Barrel

77 Millionen Barrel

Insgesamt auf der Welt förderbare Menge Öl: 1800 Mrd. Barrel

Die Differenz der Jahresproduktion zu den Zahlen in BP Amoco Statistical Review of World Energy ergibt sich aus einer unterschiedlichen Definition von Öl. Hier wird nur konventionelles Rohöl betrachtet mit einer Dichte > 17,5°API, da dessen Verfügbarkeit das weltweite Verfügbarkeitsmaximum von Öl bestimmt, während BP Amoco auch Schweröl (10 - 20 °API), Schwerstöl (< 10 °API), NGL (=Natural Gas Liquids), Kondensat, Teersande etc. mit erfaßt und nicht von konventionellem Öl unterscheidet.

Quelle: C.J. Campbell, 2000, BP Amoco Statistical Review of World Energy, Petroconsultants, LBST


So , und jetzt der Mathematiker ! Was sagt uns der Graph ?

Maximum und Wendepunkt ! Ja richtig : um das Jahr 2000+ !




Regierungsorganisationen wie die "Internationale Energie Agentur" (IEA) befinden sich im politischen Spannungsfeld vieler Interessen. Daher agieren sie entsprechend vorsichtig. Dennoch beginnt die IEA sehr zaghaft und etwas verklausuliert auf das Problem hinzuweisen. In den IEA Szenarien für eine zukünftige Energieversorgung - mit Zeithorizont bis in das Jahr 2020 - beginnt etwa ab dem Jahr 2010 eine schnell größer werdende Lücke zwischen Bedarf und Förderung. Diese Versorgungslücke schließt die IEA mit "balancing item - unidentified unconventional oil", also mit unentdecktem unkonventionellen Öl, das auf dem Papier zum Ausgleich der Bilanz von Angebot und Nachfrage eingeführt wurde. Was unkonventionelles Öl wirklich ist, darauf werden wir später noch eingehen. Viel wichtiger ist jedoch die Botschaft die hinter dieser Formulierung versteckt ist: eine Versorgungslücke die bereits 2030 der heutigen Weltjahresförderung entspricht und die aus noch zu entdeckenden Quellen geschlossen werden soll, kann niemand ernsthaft als beruhigende Meldung werten. Indirekt ist dies ein Hinweis darauf, daß dringender Handlungsbedarf besteht!

LIT. auch : global2000 : report to the president, 1980 !

Interessant auch :




Aussagen von Leuten, die es genau ! wissen müssen :

We are at the peak of the oil age but the beginning of the hydrogen age.
Anything else is an interim solution.
The transition
will be very messy, and will take many technological paths
...but the future will be hydrogen fuel cells.
------------
Herman Kuipers
Royal Dutch Shell
------------
We all share the responsibility for carrying out this project, for the assumption of responsibility is part of the dignity of human beings.
------------
Juergen Shrempp
Chairman
DaimlerChrysler

"We are living through the last days of the traditional oil company."
Peter Bijur, Texaco Chairman


M-B-S
Es geht einfach nicht um "Neufunde", sondern um die relativen Kosten, welche die Förderung von "Altfunden" attraktiv macht. Diese sind a) vorhanden, und werden unter dem Szenario b) (Rohölpreise steigen über längeren Zeitraum (12Monate) über entsprechende Marken) durchgeführt.
Nicht mehr, nicht weniger behaupte ich (incl. der Konsequenzen). Wasserstoff ist ein substituierendes Gut von Erdöl, es wird aber nicht dadurch wirtschaftlich, indem der Rohölpreis kurzfristig stark ansteigt; Die "Öko"-Industrie lebt von der langfristig simpel zu antizipierenden Zukunft, welche bedeutet, "nix Öl mehr"(In Massen).

Da gibt es doch garkeine Diskussion zwischen uns. Nur auf Sicht von Massenverbrauchsjahren (20-30), die eben noch durchaus bevorstehen, wird es einen konstant und langsam ansteigenden Preis geben. Und keinen Sprunghaften, wie es allerlei Laien (IMO) vorhersagen.

WBB


Schaubild drei finde ich übrigens witzig; Du wirst doch sehen, signifikante Abstiege in der Produktion gibt´s ab 2020, wette, nicht einen deut vorher...
ach so, sehe im Herbst/Winter den Ölpreis kurzfristig bei knapp 40$; Genau dann wird der Nahe Osten c.p. die Produktion ausweiten, der Preis fällt unter 30$. Thats it.
Ich sage nur Surgutneftegaz !
Ist mein Langfristinvestment (<10 Jahre)

Habe zwischen 10 und 16€ ne Menge eingesammelt.

Öko is`n Hype der auch wieder vorüber zieht...
@WBB

Bingo !

Ich gebe dir recht , aber nur insofern , als daß deine Theorie nur dann zutrifft, wenn die Opec wie Okt. 2000 geschehen die Fördermenge ausreichend steigern kann !

Aber wehe, wenn sie es nicht mehr in ausreichender Höhe vermag , dann, ja dann wird es für Europas Regierungen eng werden , da der Mob auf der Strasse tobt :D


Und m.E. wird das 2001 schon der Fall sein ! Die amerikanischen Reserven sind auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit 17 Jahren und können nicht aufgefüllt werden , da die Opec die Fördermengen wieder gekürzt hat , ganau wie von dir beschrieben.

Denn die jährlichen weltweiten Verbrauchssteigerungen (Indien+ China ) sind gewaltig ( 7-10 % pro Jahr !)

Und die Fördermengen in Europa und den USA fallen kontinuierlich ! :(

Wir müssen jetzt umsteuern ! Aber unsere Politiker in der EU schlafen tief und fest ! ganz im Sinne der Oel-Multis die u.a. in den USA jetzt wieder das Sagen haben !



CU

PS dazu :
Oil prices soar on US gasoline crisis fears



REUTERS, London


World oil prices surged yesterday, ending sharply higher as investment funds took fright at the prospect of a summer gasoline shortage in the United States.

London Brent crude last traded $1.23 higher at $26.51 a barrel and US light stood $1.17 stronger at $28.45 at the close.


Oil prices briefly shed some gains in late trade but remained on high ground after United Nations figures showed that Iraq`s oil exports rose 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.29 million bpd in the week to April 6.


Iraq, bound by UN sanctions, also reached its highest four-week oil exports average since early November, with 2.24 million bpd through April 6.


Dealers said they were anticipating a seventh straight week of declines in US gasoline inventories when the American Petroleum Institute (API) issues US fuel stocks data after the close of business on Tuesday.


They said investment funds which were short oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange now were buying back contracts, helping push prices higher.


"US gasoline is getting incredibly tight and the funds are short. They could easily push the market higher again," said a London futures dealer.


Latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, released last Friday, showed speculators with their largest NYMEX crude short positions ( a bet that prices will fall ( in three years. "Gasoline provided the main support for the market yesterday with traders already positioning themselves for a bullish API report tonight," said Lawrence Eagles of GNI Research.


Eagles said the report would need to show a three per cent jump in refinery utilisation from a forecast one per cent to allay fears of a gasoline supply crunch.


Analysts also were expecting a 2.3 million barrel build in crude stocks and a decline of 1.1 million barrels in middle distillates, including heating oil and diesel fuel.


Last week, the API pegged gasoline stocks 10 million barrels below levels at the same time last year, when inventories proved insufficient to meet summer consumption and US pump prices surged to record highs at more than $2 a gallon.


US gasoline futures touched $1.00 a gallon on Monday for the first time since October and last traded 3.38 cents stronger at $1.0250 a gallon on Tuesday.


The US Department of Energy has warned that retail gasoline prices are likely to jump this summer if the US supply system experiences any disruptions or bottlenecks.


Average US retail prices, at $1.50 per gallon, have already topped the expected summer average price of $1.49, the DOE said on Monday.


The rise in US prices has forced European gasoline cargo prices above $300 a tonne for the first time in six months. Prices reached $314 a tonne on Tuesday and could soon translate into further price increase at the pump.


High US prices are making it profitable for sales of gasoline into the United States from Europe.


Last year European fuel protests saw farmers and hauliers lead demonstrations aimed at lowering government taxes on diesel and petrol.


Unlike the United States, Europe`s oil inventories look comfortably placed.


European crude and petroleum product inventories rose 7.32 million barrels in March for a year-on-year surplus of 19.32 million, European Union agency Stichting Euroilstock said.


Dealers said that the US gasoline market was countering the more bearish impact of a widespread economic slowdown and continued worries that members of the OPEC producers` cartel will not adhere to cuts in production quotas.


The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut output twice this year by a total 2.5 million bpd, with the most recent cut of one million bpd going into effect on April 1.


Industry reports indicate, however, that OPEC output exceeds the set limits.

Die Zeichen zu lesen ist nicht schwer !

CU

M_B_S
@ WBB noch ein Zeichen ! Und was für eins ;)

Iran will bis :)2005:)!!!!

40 MRD $ in den Ausbau der eigenen Förderkapazitäten investieren !


Iran seeks $40 billion to raise crude oil production
NEW DELHI: Iran is seeking around $40 billion foreign investment to explore its many potentially energy rich areas and raise the crude production capacity to 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2005, according to a senior Iranian official.

"We are seeking to increase our crude oil production capacity from 3.7 million bpd to 8 million bpd by 2005, when our domestic consumption would have risen to 2 million bpd from 1.2 million to 1.5 million bpd currently. The increase in capacity would enable us to export more oil," said Abbas Maleki, chairman of Tehran-based International Institute for Caspian Sea, on the sidelines of an energy security conference here on Wednesday.

The proposal to boost production envisages "revitalising the joint reserves with neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq. We are keen to pay more attention to the potential of reserves in the border regions," said Maleki.

Iran has an estimated 812 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves, the second largest after Russia. On the reserves near Qatar, which holds the third largest gas reserves, Maleki said the offshore South Pars field, which is estimated to hold 12 trillion cubic feet of gas and is Iran`s largest non-associated gas field, is geologically an extension of Qatar`s 241-Tcf North Field.

Iran is planning to bring into force a new law for foreign investment that would allow for absorption of foreign direct investment. The bill in currently under review in Parliament, said Maleki.

The new law would permit production-sharing contracts in the oil and gas sector. Currently all major global companies except American companies are participating in Iranian exploration and production activities.

In line with Iran`s keenness to export gas to India, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is studying the best route for setting up a gas pipeline in association with state-owned gas major Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL). The two companies have commissioned a feasibility study for a deep-sea route at 3 km depth, bypassing Pakistan for security reasons.

"In association with GAIL we are also studying setting up LNG installations in the Persian Gulf at the Pars Oil and Gas Free Zone in Iran, which is going to handle all LNG trade," said the official. (IANS)


Ja , wer es nicht wahr haben will ist blind !

Es wird eng ! ;)
Benzinpreise so hoch wie noch nie - Einflüsse aus USA

HAMBURG (dpa-AFX) - Die Benzinpreise in Deutschland sind so hoch wie noch nie. Nach Einschätzung des Hamburger Branchendienstes EIDhaben Einflüsse aus den USA dazu beigetragen, den Großhandelspreisfür Benzin auf mehr als 300 USD je Tonne zu treiben. "Es passiert offenbar das gleiche wie im vergangenen Jahr", sagte EID-Chef Heino Elfert am Donnerstag der dpa in Hamburg. "Der notwendige Aufbau von Benzinbeständen in den USA lässt sich nicht bewerkstelligen; die Bestände sind sogar noch niedriger als im vergangenen Jahr." Daraus resultiere zusätzliche Nachfrage auf den europäischen Märkten. Die hohen Benzinpreise auf dem Spotmarkt zögen den Rohölpreis nach sich. Nach einer Preisrunde am Mittwoch kostet Normalbenzin im bundesdeutschen Durchschnitt 2,09 DM je Liter. Für Superbenzin muss der Autofahrer 2,13 DM je Liter bezahlen und für Super plus 2,21 DM. Dieselkraftstoff kostet 1,67 DM je Liter. Damit haben dieBenzinpreise in Deutschland einen neuen Höchststand erreicht. "Allein im April hat sich der Preis für Normalbenzin in Rotterdam von 276 auf308 USD je Tonne erhöht", sagte ein Sprecher von ExxonMobil in Hamburg. Das entspreche rechnerisch der Preiserhöhung von vier bis fünf Pfennig. Der Preis für ein Barrel (159 Liter) Rohöl der Nordsee-Sorte Brent kletterte auf mehr als 26 USD./DP/gi/sh


Leute aufwachen !
All year, OPIS Editors have warned about the potential for
$3 per/gal retail gasoline prices this spring and summer.
Now`s the time to prepare for the wild ride, with spot and wholesale
gasoline and diesel prices reaching stunning levels --
huge retail gas spikes are just around the corner...

April 10, 2001, OPIS Reports:
..."The violent wholesale increases of the last 21 days pushed the nationwide pump price through $1.50 gal this morning," notes Fred Rozell," Retail Pricing Director for OPIS.

...Marketers buying fuel on the wholesale markets face the worst
margin squeeze since the Persian Gulf War.

...Wholesale prices are moving up by 5 times the rate of street prices.

...dozens of suppliers increased prices on an intraday basis with some
double digit moves for gas and diesel.

...Spot gasoline prices spiked higher at a breakneck pace,
with some regional grades up as much as 54% from March 20.

...Most markets have seen increases of 20-30cts gal, and costs for high octane
reformulated gasoline have advanced by nearly 45cts gal in the northeast.

...New record highs were seen for spot prices in New York, the U.S. Gulf Coast,
and the Midwestern Group 3 market.

...Refinery maintenance has dragged on much longer than expected and the trading community fears that supplies will be especially snug going into the Summer driving season.

... The price of premium reformulated gasoline, used by New York, Philadelphia, and Boston, has risen some 54% or 44.5cts gal since March 20.

...Some refiners are having difficulty making premium gasoline to meet EPA standards.

And this is just the beginning -- just one April Afternoon...

Lesen ! this is just the beginning !
@ WBB
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

:)Sunday July 26, 1998 :)

Energy apocalypse looms as the world runs out of oil
Forget the Caspian bonanza. Peter Beaumont and John Hooper in Rome report on claims that producers misled everybody

The world faces a devastating oil crisis in the early years of the new millennium, according to a new assessment of conventional oil reserves.

Global production will peak as early as 2002, then decline over the next 70 years, says the analysis. As oil stocks decline, prices will rise steeply making the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 look `minor and transitory` by comparison. The warnings of environmentalists in the Seventies appear now to have been prescient.

The fears, which emerged as oil prices hit a 25-year low, contradict the conventional industry view of continuing low prices for the forseeable future, suppressed by increasing reserves of oil and the development of new areas such as the Caspian Sea.

At the centre of the argument are claims that oil-producing countries and companies have deliberately overestimated their oil reserves for political and economic reasons, and major new finds are increasingly unlikely.

Fears that the world is rapidly approaching peak oil production - and inevitable depletion - have galvanised the G8 group of leading industrial nations into taking action. At the recent Moscow summit, Ministers were warned that prices would increase sharply and that `many multi-billion dollar projects` would be required to meet the energy gap.

The concept of oil shortages remains contentious because of the many cries of `wolf` by oil economists after the oil crises of the Seventies that all available stocks would be burnt up by the end of the twentieth century. This time, however, the warnings are being sounded by a small group of international petroleum geologists who have built new mathematical models to predict peak production and ensuing decline. Their model is based on a formula devised in the Fifties by geologist M. King Hubbert and used with extreme accuracy throughout the oil industry to predict peak yield in individual fields. Now applied on a global scale, the model shows oil production as a bell curve with the apex at the point when half of the available oil has been used up. Suddenly the glass that the world had considered to be almost full has been revealed to be half empty.

Researchers have also used an offshoot of chaos theory to plot probable distributions of as yet undiscovered oil and suggest that the majority of the world`s oil has already been discovered.

The leading proponents of the new theory are Dr Colin Campbell and Dr Jean Laherrere, who have both been employed in the oil industry for 40 years and are currently working with Petroconsultants, owner of one of the most authoritative databases on oil production and reserves, in Geneva.

Unlike those who predicted global oil exhaustion in the wake of the last oil crises, Campbell, author of The Coming Oil Crisis, insists that it is not the point at which the world runs out of oil that is crucial, but the halfway point when production begins to taper off and demand forces prices up.

"The impression that the oil companies give is that oil will just keep on coming," Campbell said. "The reason that they want to do this is simple. They operate in a global market and they have to protect their shares. Unfortunately it is simply not true. There is a finite amount of oil."

Campbell and Laherrere say the key issue in recent years has been the false impression that oil reserves have been `growing` as companies have revised up their estimates.

In a paper written for the journal Scientific American earlier this year, Campbell and Laherrere reported that their research into reserve estimates which had been published by the oil industry had identified widespread systemic errors, not least the widely used practice of including the highest possible estimates for reserves.

According to most accounts, world oil reserves have marched steadily upwards over the past 20 years. Extending that trend into the future, one could easily conclude, as the US Energy Information Administration has, that oil production will continue to rise unhindered for decades to come, increasing almost two-thirds by 2020.

"Such growth is an illusion. About 80 per cent of the oil produced today flows from fields that were found before 1973, and the great majority of them are declining."

Campbell and Laherrere are not alone in predicting peak production early in the next millennium. Separate analysis - carried out by Dr Craig Bond Hatfield at the University of Toledo, Ohio, and Dr John Edwards, of the University of Ohio, using official US Geological Survey Figures - says conventional oil production will peak early in the next century even with the most optimistic estimates.

Hatfield - who has been studying oil depletion for 18 years - warns that unless governments begin investing heavily in alternative energy sources the oil shortages of the 1970s, which caused rampant inflation and damaged economic growth, will be `minor events compared with what is going to happen`.

`The world is only just now waking up to what is going on. The problem is that we are working in a field made controversial by the wildly incorrect forecasts made after the last oil shortages which said that oil would be used up by the end of this century.

"These were not made by petroleum geologists and they have damaged our case. I can only hope over the next decade that we are able to develop viable alternatives to the oil-based economy. But we need to get going now. We will not manage overnight and it requires time and a gigantic investment. What I fear is that we are running out of time."

According to Hatfield`s research - which mirrors that of Campbell and Laherrere - most of the reported `growth` in oil reserves in the past 10 years has been from revised estimates. In a paper submitted to the journal Nature last year, he wrote that in 1988 and 1989 Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia - all members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries - reported upward revisions of 277 billion barrels of oil, accounting for almost the total growth in global oil reserves between 1987 and 1990.

Included in this upward revision was the boosting of Opec`s estimated Gulf States reserves - pushed artificially upwards to allow them to increase their share of oil production under the quota system.

Some oil executives are also convinced of the dangers ahead, including Franco Bernabe, chief executive of the Italian oil company Eni SpA. On a visit to London last year, Bernabe, a former economics professor, warned that despite the much reported improvements in horizontal drilling technology to increase yield from existing fields the world was being `complacent` about the availabilty of cheap oil.

"My forecast is that between 2000 and 2005 the world will be reaching peak production from our known fields," Bernabe said. "After that output will decline.` But demand, he added, would continue to rise inexorably.

It is a view reinforced by the former chairman of Opec, Alirio Parra, Venezuela`s Oil Minister from 1992-94. "I have no doubt prices are going to have to go up," he said. "At $10-15 a barrel, a lot of exploration is not worth while. The question is whether more cost-effective technologies can be developed to go into a new and prolific round of discoveries at these prices. To my mind, that is not certain.

"At the same time, though, I am reluctant to be a prophet of doom. All the time, the finding of oil is getting more technically challenging and - unless new techniques are developed - it will get more expensive. But the caveat is all-important. Oil is finite, yet man`s inventiveness seems to have no end. They are doing things now that we would not have dreamt of 10 years ago."

Venezuela offers a supreme example of the way that oil reserves are proportionate to man`s ability to release them from the earth at an economic cost. There are known to be 700bn barrels of extra-heavy non-conventional crude in the Orinoco basin - an amount equivalent to the reserves of Saudi Arabia.

At current prices, they cannot be extracted profitably. But that has not stopped Conoco, Mobil and other oil firms signing deals with the government in Caracas allowing them to try. Their calculation is, like that of most oil companies, a long-term one: either advances in technology will slash the cost of getting at these extra-heavy crudes or prices will soar before they do.

Man beachte das Datum der Prognose ! :D

Quelle Observer !
Constitution: Bush recklessly pushing dependency on oil sources
Staff
Friday, April 13, 2001


Like a lot of free-market zealots, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are all for competition --- until they get some.

Both former oil men, the president and vice president this week presented a budget that slashes funding for anything that might, someday, compete with the petrified dinosaur industry. Money for alternative energy and fuel-efficiency programs was cut by half or more.

At the same time, the Interior Department was OK`d to spend 20 percent more to explore for oil, natural gas and coal. Protected public lands are to be opened to those purposes. The Bush budget also hacks funding from a federal partnership with automakers that was developing gas-electric hybrid engines that get triple the current fuel economy.

But the Bushies have a sense of humor, at least. They promise to restore money for alternative fuel research in three years but only with money earned from leasing the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil production.

Bush and Cheney seem to be gearing up to push fuel consumption as though it were crack cocaine. This is terrible policy. The energy crisis in this country, to the degree that one exists, is a crisis of fossil-fuel dependency.

Like any dependency --- from chemical addiction to over-dependence on government largess --- our carbon addiction distorts all other aspects of life to serve its insatiable needs.

Dependence on oil puts our entire system at the mercy of supplies and prices for the black stuff, and those factors are, and always will be, largely beyond our control. No matter how many of our wilderness areas we despoil, our country will always be dependent to a large degree on other countries --- including some that don`t particularly like us --- for most of our oil.

Most of our worst environmental woes can be traced to burning oil and coal, as well. Global warming, urban air pollution and mercury in drinking water all come largely from coal-burning power plants and gas-burning vehicles.

Government policy, then, ought to have the aims of diversifying our sources of energy, promoting efficient and clean technologies and encouraging conservation.

The government shouldn`t be in the business of coercing the shift from oil dependency, but by no means should it take the Bush approach of flogging increased consumption.

It is not imprudent to explore for oil and gas within our borders, but those reserves ought to be seen as an emergency supply to be exploited only in the event of a genuine crisis between now and the day we`ve weaned ourselves from fossil fuels. A genuine crisis would be a prolonged disruption of supplies from abroad, whether from war, natural disaster or other unforeseen circumstance.

A spike in the price of gasoline is not a crisis, but a market signal of the dangers of dependency.

Of course, one could argue that by putting the spurs to fuel consumption and gobbling up finite supplies, Bush`s policies could bring on their own twin crises of premature depletion and environmental degradation. We grown-ups won`t be around then, most likely, but our children and grandchildren will.

What sort of planet will they inherit?

Bush seine Lösung : OEL ! Wahnsinn !
3 DM pro Liter Super nicht mehr auszuschließen !

Solarer Wasserstoff / Biofuel jetzt !
Wer meint wenn IRAK und IRAN den Oelhahn zudrehen , dass die anderen den Hahn dann aufdrehen können ist auf dem Holzweg !

s.o . !

Das ganze Roll Over und ist für die Oelmultis ein wahres Horror Szenario leutet es doch das Ende ein !

M_B_S
Oelpreis strebt wieder 30 $ Marke an !

Irak Krieg steht vor der Tür !


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