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We sit at the dawn of a new age. A mere ten years ago, the term Internet had not even entered the mainstream vocabulary. Today, its usage is ubiquitous. Almost 20 years ago, a little known futurist, John Naisbitt envisioned a technologically interconnected future that he described as a "Global Village". Today, Mr. Naisbitt`s vision has come to pass.

The Internet is, without a doubt, the fastest growing telecommunications medium in history. Although the Internet only began to become extensively used by businesses and individuals in 1993, in that six year period, it has grown from virtually nothing to boast an estimated 81 million users worldwide. It took only 5 years for the Internet to reach 50 million users. This compares to 38 years for radio, 13 years for television, and 10 years for cable. All accounts of the future for this amazing medium predict continued growth. And we agree. The Internet is as nothing encountered by our society to date. It allows us all to become publishers of information (or content) that can be viewed by anyone in the world. It allows companies to sell goods and services to a global and rapidly growing market. It allows customers to, quickly and easily, survey the offerings of thousands of suppliers. It eases communications and it tests the sovereignty of governments whose power and influence have always depended upon physical borders.

The convergence of computers and communications that has manifested itself in the Internet is rapidly changing the world around us. Banking, books, stock trading, groceries, and yes, even gambling are now being offered on the Internet. A mere 5 years ago, few people had even heard of the Internet, let alone used it. Now, it is almost everywhere and the Internet is rushing headlong towards ubiquity. Newspaper and television ads now feature the distinctive http://www.mybusiness.com/. News shows and press articles direct viewers and readers to "find out more on the web". The Internet is smashing long held paradigms and forcing almost every company in the world to re-evaluate its business plan in the face of this stampeding medium.

Gambling has also entered this digital age. Despite great skepticism, at-home gambling via the Internet established itself in 1998. Internet gambling sites are blooming like flowers in the spring and, although the earth that supports many of these sites is not very firm, seeds are being planted in more stable (and fertile) places like Australia.

Another certainty is the existence of substantial latent demand for in-home gambling services. The report details almost 700 Internet sites, operated by approximately 200 different private companies or government agencies. These are mostly rudimentary Internet gambling sites which are ample evidence of the public`s appetite for these services. The present modest wagering volumes through these Internet gambling sites and telephone deposit account betting systems are reflections of the cumbersome, user-unfriendly nature of these services and of the primitive, bandwidth-restricted nature of the Internet today, not indications that consumers reject the concept.

In establishing pro forma revenue projections, we estimate the potential Internet gamblers and the wagering volumes that would exist if all of these potential Internet gamblers were to log on to a gambling Web site and play for money. Estimates of potential Internet gambling are useful. The number of Internet users and the number of these users willing to engage in financial transactions over the network serve as limiting factors for the size of the Internet gambling market. A serious concern of a vast majority of Internet users remains the security of sending credit card numbers and other financial information over the network. Although shopping is one of the most popular activities on the Internet (73% of Web users spend some portion of their time online searching for information about products and services), when it comes to actually purchasing a product or a service online, most users opt for the phone. Further, concerns regarding the integrity of casino games "regulated" by countries not found on many maps are additional limiting factors of, unfortunately, unknown magnitude. But, the number of Internet users and their willingness to engage in Internet commerce are at least approximately known. A growing segment of the wired population is comfortable transmitting financial information over the Internet, as witnessed by the explosive growth in consumer spending on books and music through online merchants like Amazon.com. The number of adults who are willing to gamble is, unfortunately, unknown.

We think the number is small. Cyber Dialogue.com, a New York firm that publishes a monthly report of topical data relating to the Web, estimates that 43.1 million U.S. adults use entertainment content Web sites or services. Sports is the most frequent, with 22.4 million adult users. Movies is next, with 22.1 million. Music ranks third, at 19.7 million users and (non-gambling) games ranks fourth, at 18 million. Cyber Dialogue.com`s estimate of the number of U.S. adult users of Internet wagering and betting content and services is just 1.4 million.

These numbers indicate that the consumer base in 1998 for online gambling was far smaller than the consumer base for sports, movies, music or video games. One interpretation of this interesting finding is that online gambling market is, relative to the online sports, movies, music and video game markets, undeveloped. Perhaps that`s because of its unclear legality or because mainstream consumer brands like Disney or Sony don`t advertise and promote online gambling the way they advertise and promote online sports or music. To the extent this explains the comparatively small number of online gamblers, the online gambling market could become much larger if widely accepted brands (Caesars Palace, for example) were to set up shop in cyberspace and promote gambling services the way Sony promotes its movie and music content.

The alternative explanation is that the consumer base for online gambling is inherently smaller than the consumer base for music or sports. This may be the case. Gambling was, within living memory, forbidden. For some people, it still has an aura of the not-quite-respectable. And it costs money, quite a lot if you consume much of it. The economy currently offers things for people to do in their leisure time, online and off, in super-abundance. Commercial games are only one among leisure goods, services and activities beyond counting.

Starting in 1999 and reaching a crescendo in 2000, we project that two events could have significant repercussions on the future of Internet gambling. First the negative - although by no means certain, there is still the potential for the U.S. to ban Internet gambling. This legislation will, at best, curtail Internet gambling in the United States. At worst, it could prohibit gambling on the Internet by U.S citizens outright. On the positive side of the ledger, however, Australian online operators have begun to open their cyber doors for business in 1999, and more are on tap for 2000. The report includes detailed information on the 47 governments around the globe which currently sanction Internet gambling in some form, most through various licensing regimes.

Internet wagering in the United States may be significantly curtailed if prohibition legislation is passed and effectively enforced. Because of recent changes in the proposed federal legislation which removed the provisions that would prosecute individual bettors for gambling online, we assume that at least 5% of the current market will continue to gamble. However, with the proliferation of well-capitalized, branded, Internet gambling sites based in first-world countries, substantial increases in the number of people outside the United States willing to gamble online and increases in the amounts they are willing to bet can be expected.

The end result is that, whatever happens with the proposed U.S. prohibition bills, the market for at-home gambling over the Internet will continue to grow. Projected accelerating growth in the number of Internet users overseas combined with increased credibility provided by Australian and European Internet gambling operators will be sufficient to overcome a loss of many players from the United States (although growth in the industry could slow considerably as a result).

Figure 4.2.1 presents our estimates for worldwide Internet gambling revenues. These projections are based on the estimated potential of Internet gambling markets. The model estimates the number of adult home users of the Internet from 1998 to 2002. The estimates were derived from averaging some of the best recent studies on the number of Internet/WWW users. Future growth in home usage is estimated to be comparable to the historical penetration of the Microsoft Windows operating system. The result is a large increase in the number of adult home users of the Internet for the next four years. We have only included adult home users because those that are underage or only have Internet access at work will likely be prevented from gambling online.

Figure 4.2.1: The Estimated Internet Gambling Market
( in millions )

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Adult Home Users 81 121 145 159 173
18% 21% 24% 27% 30%

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Transactors 14.57 25.33 34.74 42.99 51.97
Estimated per Capita Annual Internet Gambling Expenditure $ 150.23 $ 154.88 $ 159.87 $ 165.28 $ 165.28

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Potential Internet Gambling Expenditures $2,189.28 $3,923.36 $5,554.27 $7,105.84 $8,589.55

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Estimated Actual Internet Gambling Expenditures $651.20 $1,167.00 $1,485.70 $2,328.30 $3,067.00

We estimate that the percentage of users who will use the Internet for commerce in the next five years will increase at an average annual rate of 3 percent. We have used a relatively small growth rate to reflect the belief that the users who are willing to transfer financial information over the network tend to be more experienced. In figure 4.2.1, we project a large increase in the number of web users and that means a large increase in new users who probably won`t be using their credit cards over the Internet right away.

The result is an estimated 14.6 million adult users in 1998 that are willing to conduct transactions on the Web, possibly growing to 51.9 million in 2002. Since any online gambling requires the transfer of financial information over the network (whether by credit card or an off-line account, you will still need to access that account online to place your wager), that portion of the Internet population that does not yet conduct transactions online can be excluded from the model.

The average annual expenditure per adult on casino games is estimated based upon available information on per capita gambling expenditures from the United States, Australia, European and Asian nations. This estimate is then discounted to reflect ethnic differences such as Muslim populations (where per capita wagering is close to zero). Applying this average expenditure to the population of adult Internet users that are willing to conduct transactions over the network returns the potential Internet gambling expenditure. It is important to note that these estimates represent potential Internet gambling revenues, not actual. Although 18% of the Internet population may feel comfortable transmitting financial information over the network, it is not precisely known how many of them would also be willing to gamble.

We applied the growth rates reflected in this model of the potential Internet gambling expenditure to actual expenditures observed in 1998 and the first half of 1999. We project that the market for gambling on the Internet could grow to more than $3 billion (U.S.) by 2002, despite a ban in the U.S. In the end, there is, quite literally, a whole other world out there. The Internet is the future of communications, information, and entertainment. Internet gambling in first world countries, offered by recognizable companies, will forever alter the consumer relationship with commercial gambling games. The market for at-home gambling over the Internet will continue to grow with the medium itself, and, in our opinion, that growth does not stop until the Internet is as ubiquitous as telephones and televisions.

The report also details successful business practices in the industry including some of the following:

Best of Practices

a) Develop Trust
Lack of trust and security issues will continue to be the leading inhibitors of online gambling. Customers need assurance and compelling value propositions to overcome those concerns.
b) Brand, brand, brand
Internet gamblers will gravitate to recognized and trusted brand names. Traditional gambling or non-gambling businesses with an established brand have a key advantage when they go online.
c) Imprint the new customer
E-commerce consumers easily fall into Internet patterns and the evidence suggests that they do not switch online allegiances easily. Savvy E-gambling operators will work at becoming a starting point for the novice gambler and capitalize on this opportunity for capturing consumer loyalty.
d) Provide second-to-none customer service
Retaining customers depends on providing a high level of attention and service throughout the purchasing cycle. Amazon.com is a master at this game. As Amazon has learned, building a brand will get consumers to try your service; but, it is customer service that will keep them coming back. Some E-commerce companies, such as eBay, are still struggling with customer service and fulfillment.
e) Exploit the Web
Successful E-gambling companies will leverage affiliate programs and portal relationships to exploit the connectivity of the Web. Affiliate programs offer access to customers and a deeper understanding of them. Furthermore, because of the high volumes of traffic they attract, portals are important for drawing new customers.
f) Use information to improve sales and product mix
Online businesses are realizing that providing customers with more information helps them make better decisions about their purchases. The informed online consumer buys more product. Again, Amazon creates a good example. Every time a customer logs on to Amazon.com, new books and CDs that are in the customers interest groups (based upon past purchases) are displayed for the customers convenience.
g) Leverage offline Media to gain online customers
Consumers still use offline channels to research, acquire and service what they spend money for online. E-gambling companies must recognize the importance of old media and acquire or partner with traditional advertising and suppliers to attract new customers.
h) Distribution
America Online (AOL) became the largest Internet Service Provider in the United States by plastering the country with CDs and floppy disks. The strategy worked. AOL currently has nearly one third of all the Internet users in the United States. We would suggest that E-gambling businesses do the same, starting with your existing player database and expanding from there.
i) Multi-channel Gambling companies: Utilize your existing customer base
Multi-channel E-gambling businesses that are developing in Australia and Europe have an existing database of loyal customers from far-flung regions that have likely come to trust their legitimacy. People that have been to terrestrial facilities can put a name and face to the enterprise on the computer screen. Those operators that have a real-world presence should use that to their advantage by offering existing players generous comps, such as discounted trips, and rebates (where legal) for trying out the interactive service. Furthermore, distribute CDs at your physical location. The potential for cross-marketing a physical and E-gambling business online casino is great.
j) Multi-channel Gambling companies: Don`t get hung up on cannibalization
As a bricks and mortar gambling business with a substantial investment in a land-based facility, do not sacrifice the online system in fear of cannibalizing your terrestrial facility. The history of business is littered with companies and industries that have attempted and failed to protect an old line of business from the encroachment of a new one. IBM tried to protect its minicomputer business from the onslaught of PCs, and consequently lost the PC market to Compaq. In the 1950s, the U.S. horse racing industry feared lower track attendance if the racing product was televised. Now, racing struggles to regain exposure. Some Internet gambling companies have cash flow margins of 80% and net income margins of 60%. No land-based gambling business we have seen can come close to that.
k) Multi-channel Gambling companies: Build barriers to entry
While terrestrial gambling businesses may have an advantage in the early stages of development of a new interactive wagering industry, they should start early in building barriers to entry in the business. Traditional gambling companies should begin aggressively marketing and promoting its interactive wagering site(s) to build the web casino brand. Marketing should not focus too heavily on the Internet. Banner ads should not be abandoned, however, and we suggest that a few strategically placed banner ads on the proper Internet sites will be worth the investment because they encourage the "impulse buy." Experience suggests, however, that a big marketing push in traditional media can produce better results.

Other E-commerce businesses have found that advertising in traditional media (print, radio, and television) give their businesses substance. As discussed in section 2, there remains a great deal of mistrust about the Internet. Advertising in traditional media with which consumers are familiar and comfortable seems to help add legitimacy to an Internet business.

Another way to build barriers to entry is to obtain exclusive licenses to certain games. A popular game on many Internet casinos is Let It Ride. Unfortunately, Let it Ride is the intellectual property of Shuffle Master, Inc. and the company intends to start suing Internet software suppliers/operators who are using the game without a license. Casinos all over the world are learning the benefits that can come from de-commoditizing casino games and that branded intellectual property from other sectors of the economy synthesized with gambling games can have beneficial results for gambling operators. With an exclusive license to conduct certain games on the Internet, E-gambling businesses can build further barriers to entry.

Building a dominant web gambling brand presence will require the investment of significant amounts of time and money. Depending upon how the issues of taxation and regulation are resolved, the eventual "winners in the E-gambling business may not initially report a profit. But, the first company to build and successfully maintain the Amazon.com of interactive gambling will be at the forefront of a huge business. Americans alone spend 10 cents of every leisure dollar on gambling. The potential for at-home interactive wagering is gargantuan and those companies that invest in the future by acquiring customers now (and possibly losing money in the process) to successfully build a brand that dominates this segment of the Internet gambling business is extraordinarily prescient.


Wagering on the Internet

A joint effort by River City Group, LLC and Christiansen Capital Advisors, Inc., Wagering on the Internet is a strategic analysis of the online gambling industry today as well as a forecast of tomorrow. The comprehensive report, comprised of research and analysis compiled over the last four years, includes:

More than 120 text pages (not including appendices).
More than two dozen charts and tables (not including appendices).
Over 70 in-depth company profiles.
Information on nearly 650 Internet wagering domains.
Copies of U.S. federal court documents for industry-related cases.
Copies of all U.S. federal and state laws pertaining directly or indirectly to Internet wagering.
Information on 47 global jurisdictions with provisions for legalized Internet wagering.
Detailed information on 19 Internet wagering software suppliers.

http://www.rivercitygroup.com/brochure/wagering_execsummary.…

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