Enronitis bewirkt Kapitalverschiebun in Emerging Markets - kommentierter Artikel - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Informator]

anbei Artikel: Enron und andere Faelle werden dazu fuehren, dass der Emerging-Market-Abschlag gegenueber US- und aehnl. Lanedern, derzeit die Haelfte der Gesamtkapitalisierung (und in Laendern wie Thailand mehr) abgebaut wird, weil eben weltweit solche Faelle vorkommen.

Ich denke, dass sich die Praxis in Laendern wie Thailand seit der Krise deutlich verbessert hat (allerdings von niedrigem Niveau ausgehend) und westl. Markte (insbes. wenn wir uns den Neuen Markt und seine Aequivalente ansehen, wo Bilanzbeschiss die schlimmsten Asien-Tycoons der Boomzeit vor 1997 noch uebertrifft)nicht mehr viel besser sind.

Der folgende Artikel wertet dies als weiteren Indikator fuer eine Reallokation des weltweiten Kapitals in Richtung Asien.

Auszug aus Artikel:

26Feb2002 Asian Wall Street Journal
USA: Enron May Boost Emerging Stocks

Accounting`s Role in Share Prices Is Reassessed

Scandal Suggests Smaller Premium Is Appropriate for U.S. Shares

Emerging stock markets could be the unexpected beneficiaries of the Enron mess.

For years, U.S. stocks have enjoyed a premium over shares in much of the rest of the world, in part because of stricter corporate governance standards in the U.S. that offered some assurance to investors that their stocks wouldn`t be crippled by scandal. In some cases, emerging-market stocks were discounted as much as 50% from U.S. levels, in part to compensate for weak bookkeeping standards.

But that discount is being reconsidered. Following revelations at Enron - as well as questions about balance-sheet moves by Tyco International, WorldCom, Computer Associates International and International Business Machines, among others - investors are beginning to tiptoe back into places that now don`t seem quite so risky.

"People have always been skeptical about emerging-market accounting, but unlike with Western companies, that risk is generally priced into the stock," says James Clunie, head of global equities for Aberdeen Asset Managers in Glasgow, Scotland. He thinks emerging-market stocks may have been penalized excessively for accounting and governance standards that suddenly don`t look so bad when held up against prized Western standards.

That could generate a broad rerating of emerging markets, and perhaps a flow of new money from the U.S., as the risks associated with these stocks are recalibrated, Mr. Clunie says.

There are signs that investors are shifting their thinking. The MSCI emerging-markets index was up 3% this year at the end of last week, compared with a 12% drop in the Nasdaq Composite Index and a 5.5% decline for the S&P 500.

During the second week of February, AMG Data says, emerging-market mutual funds in the U.S. took in a net $120 million, the largest one-week total in more than three months. Movement into the more highly regarded emerging markets has been even more robust. In South Korea, for instance, foreign investors have made net purchases of 3.9 trillion won ($3 billion) of stock over the past four months, according to Daewoo Securities.

As Andy Xie, an equity strategist with Morgan Stanley, notes, emerging-market stocks, especially in the Pacific Rim, have been trading at some of their lowest price-to-earnings ratios in years, while U.S. stocks continue to hover near historical highs. "The markets are fully aware of the corporate governance problems in Asia and have discounted the stocks accordingly," Mr. Xie wrote last week. He says "the Enron scandal should lead to a quality discount on U.S. corporate earnings also."

[coco71]

Durch die starken Kurssteigerungen ist mein Thailand- Engagement bald groesser als am NM.
Aber diese Positionen jetzt aufloesen ist wohl schwachsinnig.
Man traut sich ja noch nicht mal zu traden....so wie das anzieht.

[Rhum56]

@Coco71

Nur geniessenund laufen lassen.

Kommt sicher bald ne Korrektur, trotzdem, langfristig ist
das Ende noch lange nicht erreicht.

Hat auch Informator immer so dargelegt

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