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Begriffe und/oder Benutzer

 

Fragen

 Ja Nein
Avatar
18.10.02 09:37:03
Beitrag Nr. 2.501 ()
eine schüchterne frage sein mir erlaubt.

wieso wehren sich die minen nicht. die müssten doch nur die produktion um ca. 5% nach unten schrauben und/oder ihre vorwärtsverkäufe deutlich einschränken
oft reicht schon die ankündigung. das minencartell schlägt zurück.

denk ich hier zu einfach. sag ja nicht das es einfach ist alle oder die meisten unter einen hut zu bringen, aber das gefühl wie ein hund an der leine anderen ist auch nicht berauschend. und außerdem gehts doch hier nur ums geld, oder

DUF
Avatar
18.10.02 10:23:41
Beitrag Nr. 2.502 ()
#2464 schu

Nein, dann wird man wie Du und stellt der Allgemeinheit infantile und dümmliche Fragen.

Schönes Wochende
Avatar
18.10.02 10:34:03
Beitrag Nr. 2.503 ()
@Gringo

Ich sehe das etwas realistischer als hier beschrieben.

Wie gesagt die Märkte waren total überverkauft und die Quartalsergebnisse schauen überwiegend gut aus,Microsoft hat gestern sehr gute Zahlen auf den Tisch gelegt,die Rally hat nichts mit Verschwörung zu tun oder sonst was,das ist ganz einfach Börsenlogik,ich denke auch das die Rally oder gute Stimmung noch ne Weile anhalten wird.

Wardriver :cool:
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18.10.02 14:01:44
Beitrag Nr. 2.504 ()
hoffentlich bildet sich zur Zeit nicht nur wieder eine kleine weisse Kerze im Abwärtstrend :confused:



Avatar
18.10.02 22:07:42
Beitrag Nr. 2.505 ()
Edelmetallmarkt-Monatsbericht: Platinpreis auf höchstem Niveau seit 17 Monaten

Widerstand bei 600 Dollar - Gold enttäuscht die Hedgefonds - Silber und Palladium auf Langzeittiefs
Von Martin Dunzendorfer, Frankfurt
Der Preis für eine Feinunze Platin stieg am Donnerstag über 600 Dollar und kostete damit so viel wie seit Mai 2001 nicht mehr. Eindeckungen von auf fallende Preise spekulierenden Investoren an der Tocom (Tokyo Commodity Exchange) sowie dem Anstieg der Leihzinsen schreiben Marktteilnehmer die überraschende Rally des Weißmetalls zu. Am Freitag zeigte sich aber, dass die 600er-Marke einen starken Widerstand bildet. Anschlusskäufe blieben zunächst aus. Darüber hinaus kam es zu Gewinnmitnahmen, die den Unzenpreis auf rund 590 Dollar drückten. Enttäuschend beurteilen Kenner des Edelmetallmarkts dagegen die Entwicklung des Goldpreises in den vergangenen Wochen. Nachdem selbst im Intraday-Handel die Marke von 330 Dollar je Feinunze nicht spürbar überwunden werden konnte, glaubt selbst so mancher Goldhaussier nicht mehr so recht an deutlich höhere Notierungen. Zum Wochenschluss wurde Gold am Vormittag in London mit 312,45 Dollar gefixt nach 310,75 am Vortag; das war der tiefste Stand seit sieben Wochen gewesen ...
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18.10.02 22:56:24
Beitrag Nr. 2.506 ()
Thai
wird es schon richten
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19.10.02 04:45:04
Beitrag Nr. 2.507 ()
October 18 - Gold $312.50 up $1 - Silver $4.35 up 2 cents

Gold Demand Very Strong / Sons of Gwalia In Big Trouble As Advertised?

Right now the markets are full of noise. The only meaningful changes this week are that the gold fundamentals got better and better, while the economic news got worse and worse.

The Gold Cartel is on its last legs and this will be another failed attempt at blowing the gold house down. What we are witnessing is nothing more than pre-election market rigging and Wall Street rah-rah. After all the corruption news this past year and scandal after scandal, little has really changed as far as the US Government and Wall Street are concerned. It is really business as usual. How grotesque!


Besides the increasing stories all over the world of STRONG demand for physical gold, the big story has to be this one on Sons of Gwalia from Australia:

Hi Bill,

Just got this from a mate,
Right now SGW.AX has fallen 27.13% and its one hour past lunch
I think the shareholders are trying to tell them something and it ain’t nice
!!!!!
best
steve Jenkins

Later, on Dow Jones:

1455 [Dow Jones] Nothing acting to prop up Sons of Gwalia (SGW) shares, which still down 24% at A$3.38 on volume of 4.3 million after miner issues FY03 profit warning citing technical problems at gold mine and fall in tantalum demand. However, chart shows major support at session low of A$3.16 (December 1997 low). SGW cuts tantalum sales projections by 300,000 pounds to 2 million pounds; company`s comment that it expects 2H profit to exceed 1H not reassuring investors. (MDB) -END-

Sons of Gwalia is one of the world’s most prolific hedgers. I believe they are hedged as far out as 10 years to some degree. Now, isn`t it interesting that, like BARRICK, Sons of G is all of a sudden having gold output problems? Why is it the large hedgers are having these problems at the same time? Is it a coincidence that their mines are having problems at the same time derivative counterparty JP Morgan Chase is under siege?

I told chairman Peter Lalor at the Denver Gold Group Conference 3 years ago that if he did not change his hedging ways, his firm was headed for the toilet. Once gold takes out $330, it will be time to flush.

Mr. Lalor did not take his own advice. From a mining story last year:

Nov 16, 2001

"I would imagine that counter-party banks would be starting to worry," said Peter Lalor, executive chairman of Sons of Gwalia Ltd (ASX: SGW), Australia`s number five gold miner and a big hedger. "There are a lot of them (banks) out there and I imagine the scale of the business is obviously going to be reduced."

Over the past year, the price of gold has risen around $37. Since the beginning of this year, the share price of Sons of Gwalia has crashed from the $6/$7 area to the $3.25 area and is about to make 5-year lows (9-year lows in Aussie dollars). Big hedger Placer Doom is near 5-year lows too. The share price of mega hedger Barrick is dreadful. This is NOT a coincidence. There are major problems in the derivatives arena. When the price of gold takes out $330, the gold derivative neutron bomb will go off, which will set off even more problems in the rest of the derivatives world. Many of the major gold hedgers are flirting with total disaster. Café members have known that for a LONG time. Thank goodness!

Anyone wishing to bone up on this topic may do so by doing a Sons of Gwalia SEARCH.

PS:

EVEN if this really is a gold mine production problem, how does Sons of Gwalia handle their massive derivatives short position on gold they will not produce?
Somebody find our bugler for this beleaguered Aussie firm: Taps it is!


www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
19.10.02 04:50:56
Beitrag Nr. 2.508 ()
The John Brimleow Report

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.94, PM $2.72, with world gold at $310.80 and $312.20. Very high; well above legal import levels. Unusually emphatic stories on physical offtake have started to appear: Reuters from Hong Kong speaks of:

"Physical gold dealers in Hong Kong firms unable to fill the flood of orders… refineries and gold bar dealers in Hong Kong have run out of stock of good delivery kilobars bars" the normally very circumspect Mitsui- London observes:

"There is some good physical demand starting to appear …as we are shipping some good quantities out to various centers."


And UBS Warburg reports that yesterday:

"Decent physical demand around the lows saw gold rally…just short of session highs"

These stories are distinctly stronger than on minor lows. One notes that MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus on gold fell last night to 61%, the lowest since late August when the price slipped briefly to $305.

Japan, on the other hand, provided little encouragement. Even though the yen sank to a new low, volume remained sluggish, only equal to 17,697 Comex lots, open interest was static, (up 128 Comex), and a bout of late selling caused $US gold unusually, to slip in Japanese hours, by 90c. (NY yesterday traded 45,897 contracts; open interest fell by 984 lots.)

Observers are aware the bears have expended much of their visible ammunition stocks over the week:

"…liquidation from Comex-trading speculators has continued over the past few days and we now estimate that the net speculative position is approaching the lows seen during the summer…Further liquidation may see gold trade down to US$305/oz but we believe that will mark the low in gold for the rest of the year…we are increasingly of the opinion that the sell off in gold is approaching an end."
(UBS Warburg)


Possibly the most interesting remarks concerning gold today were made by Martin Pring in his Weekly Update (fresh from having distinguished himself with his strong call for a stock rally late last week):


http://www.pring.com/


"…the next surprise could come on the inflation/deflation front. With virtually all market observers looking over the cliff at the possibility of deflation, signs are beginning to point the other way. We are starting to see this in the bond pits, but inflationary possibilities could soon spread to other areas. "

"The Gold Bugs (gold share symbol, HUI) Index looks as if it is in the process of tracing out an inverse head and shoulders pattern…The key will be to see whether the Index is able to rally decisively above the down trendline with a close above 115. If it can... gold should be watched very closely because there would be the possibility of a sharp rally…the Ratio of Bonds to the CRB Composite has broken to the upside favoring commodities. The Ratio of gold to bonds is not so bullish, but is right at a potential breakout point. If it moves to the upside in the next few days, this would be a strong pointer in an inflationary direction, being not only positive for gold but for commodity prices as well."

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com
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19.10.02 05:19:27
Beitrag Nr. 2.509 ()






http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/10/18/38349.html

14:41 2002-10-18

World Oil Exchanges Burning Up

Islamic terrorists have reached Saudi Arabia

It seems that the image of this country as the most respectable and stable Arab country was shaken a lot yesterday.

As it became known, a conspiracy by Islamic radical terrorists was unveiled in Saudi Arabia yesterday. Oil prices went up right after that piece of news. American special services became really concerned about it.




RusEnergy news agency informed that the tender on world commodity exchanges ended up on Thursday with an increase in oil prices. One barrel of oil gained eight cents on the International Oil Exchange in London. Now, a barrel costs $27.97. A barrel of oil in New York went up to $29.62, having increased by 15 cents.

Pursuant to the information from the Saudi capital Er Riyad, the unmasked Islamic terrorists were going to blow up one of the largest petroleum refineries of the Saudi Kingdom. The foreign mass media believe that this might have been the refinery Ras Tanura. This complex also includes oil terminals for tankers. Ras Tanura reportedly ships about five million barrels of oil to the USA daily.

The Saudi authorities said that there have been 20 people arrested in connection with the conspiracy. However, it is not clear yet if they have anything to do with al-Qaida or any other terrorist organization.

World exchanges learned about the information, which had leaked from analytical services of the US State Department. American specialists believe that some Islamic terrorist groups have already finished their reorganization after the partial devastation of al-Qaida structures in Afghanistan. Now they are reportedly using new tactics, the goal of which is to cause the maximum economic damage to the USA and its allies.

It is obvious that the world has not evaluated the new factor yet: the so-called “Islamic Renaissance.” One could realize after Shah Reza Pahlavi was overthrown in Iran that the permanent Islamic revolution would play a key role in the world. Muslims have already come to power in Egypt, in Algeria, and even in NATO member Turkey, as a result of democratic elections. This recently happened in Pakistan as well. Only the army and the cancellation of constitutional liberties caused situation to stabilize.

One can now understand the USA’s wish to destroy Hussein’s regime in Iraq and to gain unrestricted access to Iraqi oil. The growth of Islamic terrorism makes the rest of the Arab world more unpredictable and hostile.

Dmitry Slobodanuk
PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Dmitry Sudakov
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19.10.02 06:01:56
Beitrag Nr. 2.510 ()


http://www.washtimes.com/business/20021018-71352476.htm

October 18, 2002


Ex-Enron trader admits to manipulating prices

By Patrice Hill

THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Enron Corp.`s chief energy trader during the California power crisis admitted in court yesterday that he and other traders bilked the state of hundreds of millions of dollars by manipulating prices.

The guilty plea by Timothy N. Belden, the former head of Enron`s Portland, Ore., trading operations, represents the first major break in the government`s investigation of the debacle that caused blackouts, drove California deeply into debt and contributed to an economywide energy crisis during 2000 and 2001.

As part of a cooperation agreement with the Justice Department, Belden admitted that Enron, through trading strategies with nicknames like "Get Shorty" and "Death Star," helped drive the price of power in California from $25 per megawatt hour to as high as $1,500.


The schemes illegally helped to balloon Enron`s West Coast trading revenue from $50 million in 1999 to $800 million in 2001, according to the department.

"These charges answer the question that has long troubled California consumers: Whether the energy crisis was spurred in part by criminal activity. The answer is a resounding yes," said U.S. Attorney Kevin V. Ryan.

Belden, who made $6.5 million in one year while at Enron, faces up to five years in jail and $250,000 in fines, though his sentence is likely to be reduced in exchange for cooperation in implicating others involved in manipulating California`s markets.

Belden also agreed to forfeit $2.1 million in salary and bonuses he made illegally through the schemes.

"I did it because I was trying to maximize profits for Enron," the 35-year-old trader told the U.S. District Court in San Francisco. "I knew at the time that I was submitting false statements."

His attorney, Cristina Arguedas, said Belden was following Enron`s instructions. "Tim Belden is not a high-level executive who was lining his pockets out of greed," she told reporters at the courthouse.

The guilty plea vindicates California Gov. Gray Davis and state legislators who repeatedly urged the federal government to investigate whether Enron and other big energy companies were conspiring to drive up power prices in the state.

Sen. Barbara Boxer, California Democrat, called the guilty plea "only the beginning of justice" for the state and its consumers. She called on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to order $8.9 billion more in refunds for overcharges by power companies during the crisis.

The pleas for help from state officials fell largely on deaf ears in Washington until the spring, when the new management of the now-disgraced and bankrupt energy company released an internal memo describing the questionable trading strategies. It mentioned Belden by name.

The Justice Department`s Corporate Fraud Task Force, created to address a wave of corporate crime beginning with the Enron scandal a year ago, immediately seized on the memo and began its investigation in conjunction with the energy agency and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The government will use its cooperation agreement with Belden to pursue others at Enron and its trading partners who illegally manipulated the markets in California and on the West Coast, prosecutors said.

As part of his guilty plea, Belden admitted he had various co-conspirators at Enron. Two energy companies that have been widely reported as partners in some of Enron`s questionable transactions are Avista and Portland General Electric.

"The conspiracy charged in this information allowed Enron to exploit and intensify the California energy crisis and prey on energy consumers at their most vulnerable moment," Deputy Attorney General Larry D. Thompson said.

Enron manipulated the market through various complicated strategies. At times it falsely claimed that the energy it supplied came from out of state to avoid federally imposed prices caps. The company also misrepresented the amount of electricity it would supply to force up prices.

The energy trading giant, once the largest in the world, also falsely created the appearance of congestion on California`s power lines so that it could earn fees for relieving that congestion, the government said.

The payments California`s grid operator made to Enron for the power supplies were wired through the Bank of America, making the schemes a kind of wire fraud subject to criminal penalties.
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19.10.02 06:11:22
Beitrag Nr. 2.511 ()


http://asia.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=CUBFKX…

U.S. trade gap widens 10 percent to record level

19 October, 2002 01:57 GMT+08:00

By Caren Bohan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit soared nearly 10 percent in August to a fresh record as the value of imports jumped on higher oil prices and as firms stockpiled foreign goods amid a labour dispute at West Coast ports, government data showed on Friday.

The trade gap mushroomed to $38.46 billion in August from $35.07 billion in July, the Commerce Department said. Exports fell for the first time in six months and demand for foreign consumer goods pushed imports to their highest level since March 2001.

"We bought an awful lot more of everything in August but unfortunately the rest of the world didn`t reciprocate," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.


Analysts said the larger trade gap may exert a drag on gross domestic product growth in the third quarter but many are still projecting a strong rate of GDP expansion, in the area of four percent.

In another piece of reassuring news, a separate report from the Labour Department showed U.S. inflation was tame in September, with consumer prices rising only 0.2 percent overall and 0.1 percent in the closely watched core component that strips out food and energy costs.

The trade gap exceeded the average forecast of $35.58 billion that analysts gave ahead of the Commerce Department report. Excluding the U.S. surplus for services trade, the deficit for goods was $42.27 billion, also a record.

However, Naroff said it was difficult to tell whether the trend of ballooning trade deficits would keep up or whether the data has been skewed by the docks dispute at West Coast ports.


WORRIES ABOUT THE DOLLAR

Analysts worry that the growing deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of trade because it also includes investment flows, is at risk of a disorderly correction which could trigger a slide in the value of the dollar.


However, U.S. officials have repeatedly dismissed this worry, calling the gap a sign of the United States` economic strength and its appeal to foreign investors.

U.S. imports rose a strong two percent in August to $120.31 billion. Imports of consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals, televisions, furniture and household appliances hit a record $26.66 billion. Imports of services were also a record at $20.06 billion.

Steve Stanley, managing director of RBS Greenwich Capital, said the continuing threat of a work stoppage at West Coast ports prompted "nervous retailers and wholesalers" to boost their imports of consumer goods in August.

At the same time, the monthly bill for oil imports rose to $7.33 billion from $6.82 billion in July, as the threat of a U.S. war with Iraq. The potential of disruptions in supply boosted average prices to $24.57 per barrel -- the highest since the December 2000 level of $26.40 -- and import volumes increased.

Stanley said these trends appear to have continued in September, "which means the trade gap likely remained large".

Although looming worker strife at West Coast ports had an influence on imports as far back as the summer, the effect of this month`s 10-day work stoppage will not show in trade data until Commerce announces the October figures in December.

Nor is the backlog at the ports likely to clear for some weeks. The longshoremen may be back at work but employers and workers were at loggerheads over how to handle the unprecedented pileup of cargo, with each side blaming the other for a slowdown in activity.

President George W. Bush, saying the labour dispute was costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars a day, last week won a court order reopening the 29 ports and initiating an 80-day cooling off period for labour and management to resolve their differences.


EXPORTS FALL OFF

After rising steadily since February, U.S. exports fell to $81.86 billion in August, down 1.3 percent from July. The major export categories of capital goods, foods, feeds and beverage, autos and auto parts and consumer goods all showed declines.


Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Bank in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the jump in the trade deficit was a "surprise" after its narrowing in July.

"It appeared that exports of civilian aircraft were down $1 billion, after being up $1 billion the month before," Bryson said. "Crude oil imports were up, which is not a surprise because oil prices were rising."

"The way to look at these data is to take July and August together. That way, the average is nearly $37 billion per month. That is high, but when you smooth out the monthly volatility, August`s numbers no longer look like a blow-out."

The United States` bilateral trade deficit with two of its largest trading partners, China and Mexico, also set records in August. The trade gap with Mexico increased to $3.48 billion, from $3.37 billion in July. The deficit with China rose to $10.86 billion, from $9.34 billion.

The trade deficit with OPEC countries increased sharply in August to $3.68 billion as the average price for a barrel of oil hit $24.57, the highest since the December 2000 level of $26.40.
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19.10.02 06:18:19
Beitrag Nr. 2.512 ()


http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021018/15/33vzm.html

International

Saturday October 19, 12:20 AM

S Africa Gold Miners: Pft To Be Hit By Wages,Higher Rand

By Adam Aljewicz
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--South Africa`s big three gold miners are expected to post flat to lower third-quarter earnings because of higher wage costs and a stronger rand, analysts said Friday.

A near 9% rise in wages, which came into effect in July, is expected to eat into company earnings. And, while a weak rand has offered a cushion for earnings because revenue is in hard currency, analysts say the stronger rand will modestly hurt profits for AngloGold Ltd. (AU), Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) and Harmony Gold Co. Ltd. (HGMCY).


The best performer for the quarter will likely be AngloGold, the country`s biggest gold producer, because it`s geographic diversity will help offset any domestic problems.

AngloGold reports its third-quarter results Oct. 31 and is expected to post net earnings per share of between ZAR7.70 and ZAR8.20 from ZAR8.15 in the second quarter.

"AngloGold will probably be the pick of the bunch for this quarter, with its operations outside of South Africa helping to offset the impact of declining yields and rising wage costs locally," said an analyst who declined to be named.

Harmony, the third biggest gold miner, reports Monday and is expected to post net earnings per share of between ZAR2.60 and ZAR3.20 from ZAR4.02 a share previously.

Gold Fields releases its quarterly results on Nov. 7 and is expected to deliver net earnings per share of between ZAR1.70 and ZAR1.80, from ZAR2.51 during the June quarter.

Analysts have attributed the fall in Gold Fields earnings to wage increases, which are negotiated every two years, and a drop in yields at its Beatrix and Driefontien operations.

A wage deal was struck last year between the National Union of Mineworkers and the Chamber of Mines, an industry-backed body.

Also weighing on its earnings will be a rise in the mark-to-market value of its offshore debt, analysts said.

Harmony is expected to report the worst performance, with its earnings seen dented by its shareholding in Canada`s Placer Dome.

Harmony held a 9.8% shareholding, or 43 million shares, in Australia`s Aurion Gold, which the company exchanged for a 1.9% stake, or 7.5 million shares, in Placer Dome.


While the company reported a mark-to-market gain in the last quarter of around ZAR200 million, recent falls in Placer`s share price means the company will likely post a loss for the third quarter.

"We expect to Harmony to really feel the negative impact from cost pressures, as well as its negative investment in Placer Dome," said another analyst who declined to be named.

On average producers are expected to receive around ZAR105,300 per kilogram of gold - based on an average dollar exchange rate of ZAR10.42 - during the third quarter. That`s unchanged from the previous quarter and an average exchange rate of ZAR10.45.

The average price of spot gold received in dollar terms is expected to come in at $314.51 a troy ounce compared to $313.28/oz for the June quarter.

Around 1600 GMT, the rand was trading at ZAR10.3535, while spot gold was trading at $312.60 a troy ounce.

On the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa, AngloGold ended trading up 1.7% at ZAR490.00, Harmony was trading down 2.3% at ZAR129.99, while Gold Fields was up 1.5% at ZAR103.50.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; +27 11 783 7848; adam.aljewicz@dowjones.com
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19.10.02 06:21:42
Beitrag Nr. 2.513 ()


http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021018/15/33vfu.html

International

Friday October 18, 2:29 PM

St Barbara Mines 3-Mos Gold Production 40,010 Ounces

Edited Press Release

LONDON (Dow Jones)--St. Barbara Mines said Friday that its Meekatharra gold production in the latest quarter, at 40,010 ounces, was the second highest quarter on record.

The significantly higher sales volumes, the higher realized price at $567 per ounce (compared to previous years` low priced hedge positions) and reduced cash expenditures delivered a mine site cash surplus of $5.83 million before royalties.


The gold price, in Australian dollars, at execution had only been higher for one percent of the time in the last ten years. At the date of this report, 24,500 ounces remain outstanding - less than one percent of the resource inventory.

Post the period end, production was temporarily suspended at Gibraltar for the installation of additional equipment to monitor ongoing ground movement of a shear structure in the ramp access. Down time is anticipated to be two weeks.

A modified mine design incorporating strategic pillars will result in the sterilization of some reserve ounces. Mill production has not been interrupted due to stockpile availability.

Mining at Meekatharra is entering a new phase with the advanced evaluation of several orebodies to replace both Caledonian and Great Northern Highway which were completed during the quarter.

The options available have been greatly increased by the successful acquisition of the Paddys Flat tenements from Barrick Gold. The acquisition includes 938,000 resource ounces located just 15 kilometer from the company treatment plant.

Mineralization of the main region extends over a strike length of 4 kilometer, further extending dominance of the Murchison Greenstone Belt to over 100 contiguous kilometers

The first priority is identification of higher grade areas of the near 3 million tonnes of low grade stockpiles. This material can be readily incorporated into the production schedule, increasing treatment plant throughput and lowering unit costs.

The development team is currently preparing a detailed proposal to resume the exploration decline to access the Vivians and Consols lodes, central to the Paddys Flat system. The lodes are immediately along-strike of Fenians Lode, which was mined to a depth of nearly 400 metres with reported historical production over one million tonnes grading 16.8 g/t. The current combined resource below Vivians and Consols open pits is estimated at 110,000 ounces at an 8.8 g/t average grade.

A pre-feasibility study has also commenced on the 322,000 resource ounce Mickey Doolan deposit, with particular reference to processing options for the refractory ore.

The Paddys Flat consideration, for a resource which nearly doubles the Meekatharra inventory, is $3.5 million payable on settlement, a further $1.0 million on the commencement of mining operations and a $10 per ounce payment on production exceeding 50,000 ounces. Financial evaluation indicates this outlay to be largely recouped from processing the low grade stockpiles.

In addition, resource-reserve drilling down plunge has commenced at NOA 7 and 8, located 35 kilometer from the treatment plant.

Successful in-fill drilling in November/ December 2002 would allow pit dewatering and decline development to proceed with production commencing early next financial year. Importantly, this would also allow the small but high grade NOA 2 deposit to be economically developed.

The company is remains confident that Caledonian can also be further exploited from underground, with a feasible commencement date in the March quarter next year. During this important transition phase the board determined that insurance, in the form of modest hedging, was appropriate.
Avatar
19.10.02 06:42:34
Beitrag Nr. 2.514 ()


http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

October 18, 2002 (usagold.com)

Spot gold in New York settled at $312.50 an ounce, up $1.00 an ounce from yesterday’s close. The price of gold firmed up on a flat equities market. Commodity funds became uncomfortable with their holdings when a gold rally stalled last month. But physical buyers have been buying the dips, preventing a rout. Many bullish factors are still in place for gold, a possible U.S.-led war to disarm Iraq, new worries about North Korea`s nuclear arms program, and super-low U.S. interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like bullion and discourage speculators and mining companies from selling gold forward. Several technical analysts were looking for the price of gold to hold above $312 an ounce or all bets were off. Today gold held that support and looks set to firm up and possibly move higher in the near to intermediate term.

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $312.75 an ounce, up from $312.45 an ounce at the morning fixing. The price of gold rose in late London trade drawing some support from shares weakness on both sides of the Atlantic ahead of the weekend, dealers said. Gold firmed up in the early going on weaker European equities markets. Analyst John Reade at UBS Warburg said expectations that producers will opportunistically reduce their hedge books at the bottom of the recent range will mean a further burst of liquidation is likely. This could push gold down to $305 an ounce support, Reade said, but will probably mark the low in gold for the rest of the year. Signs of a tentative recovery in the global economy will nonetheless leave the market under pressure, dealers said. "The combination of a strong stock market and a strong dollar is conspiring to push the gold market lower," said Lawrence Eagles, metals analyst at GNI. "However counter support is being provided by concerns of global political tensions following the Bali bombing, Iraq and also the prospect of global economic recovery. $310 is seen as an important psychological support level," Eagles said. "A close above $312 an ounce would restore some equanimity to gold`s technical position today, but providing sentiment in equity markets remains more stable, near-term upside risks are expected to be limited," Barclays Capital said.

Earlier Gold closed at $312.55 in Hong Kong, down 90 cents. Spot gold fell Friday in Asia, weighed by another day of gains on the U.S. equity market and positive economic data, traders said. The price of gold pulled back on rising equities markets and a stronger U.S. dollar. Market participants have also removed the war premium built into gold, as any U.S. attack on Iraq appears to be some way off. "People are taking the Middle East premium out of gold," said Jonathan Barratt, director of commodities and foreign exchange at Tricom Resources. Some gold dealers in Singapore that sell locally and to the Malaysia and Indonesian markets said there had been a pick up in demand with the fall in the gold price this week. "We are seeing demand on the physical side...and we expect to see a pick-up if the price stays low and especially if it falls to US$308," said Beh Hsia Wa, dealer at United Overseas Bank (UOB) in Singapore. In Malaysia, dealers reported a pick-up in demand with the approach of the Malaysian New Year celebrations, but said volume remained well down from last year. "We have seen some pick-up due to the manufacturers stocking up in advance of Hari Pasar, the Malaysian New Year," the dealer said.

There appears to be a gold shortage developing in Hong Kong. Physical gold dealers in Asia gave a mixed picture of demand on Friday, with Hong Kong firms unable to fill the flood of orders while Singapore and Malaysia reported only a mild pick-up in demand ahead of the holidays. With the steady fall in the price of bullion this week, refineries and gold bar dealers in Hong Kong have run out of stock of good delivery kilobars bars. "There is no stock. We have checked with Johnson Matthey and Lee Cheong and they don`t have stock. They can`t supply the market," said William Leung, a dealer at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. Johnson Matthey executives were not available for comment. Executives at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers Ltd, one of the largest gold refiners and traders in Hong Kong confirmed there was a shortage of scrap for the refineries. "We have some bars but a very small amount," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong. "That`s because no scrap is being sold to us, because the price is too low," Leung said.

The World Gold Council has begun a new campaign aimed at increasing interest in portfolio diversification with gold. "It`s an insurance policy against world problems," argued Rhona O`Connell, manager of market analysis. "Gold is stable. It`s predictable and it is countercyclical [to the usual investment vehicles]. It lowers the volatility of the whole portfolio." The council recommends that long-term institutional investors reduce their bonds, cash or real estate holdings and invest 6 to 10 per cent of their portfolio in gold instead. "Most portfolios are overweight in equities and T-bills," said George Milling-Stanley, director of the council`s Western Hemisphere operations.

"Fund managers should balance them with gold." Price appreciation is not the point of gold, Ms. O`Connell said. Rather, she said, gold is a good hedge that keeps the value of portfolios high when other investment vehicles are sinking. Gold has outperformed the Dow by 70 per cent since early 2001 and by a factor of 20 since 1980, she said. It is also liquid, portable and transferable, she added. "You can sell gold anywhere in the world within 24 hours," Mr. Milling-Stanley said, flashing a half-ounce gold ring that he bought in a small shop in China. "Lots of Chinese carry these rings as a ready source of cash." Gold prices tend to move up when news is bad, Mr. Milling-Stanley said. But he warned that the Iraqi situation is just one of many interrelated factors that is affecting prices. He said people are buying gold in the United States because the economic outlook is uncertain and they have lost faith in U.S. equity markets because of the recent corporate governance scandals.

In economic news, the August trade deficit swelled 9.7 percent to a record $38.5 billion, much wider than the $35.6 billion that had been expected by economists. Also, the September consumer price index rose by an as-expected 0.2 percent while the core -- which excludes the volatile food and energy components -- inched up 0.1 percent, less than the 0.2 percent increase that had been expected by economists. Trim Tabs estimated that all equity funds had outflows of $9.7 billion in the week ending Oct. 16 compared with outflows of $4.2 billion in the prior week. And equity funds that invest primarily in U.S. stocks saw outflows of $9.3 billion vs. outflows of $2.7 billion during the prior week. Finally, bond funds had inflows of $2.2 billion vs. inflows of $2.3 billion the prior week.

Comment: Trading in U.S. equities markets has cooled off even as today is options expiry for the U.S. markets. The economic data is not encouraging as the trade deficit hit yet another record and yesterday’s new unemployment claims data along with the rising continuing claims data. The price of gold firmed up after dropping over the last week due to a rallying equities market and a firmer U.S. dollar. Still even as investors attention was diverted by the stock market rally, the rally was essentially driven by institutional players while the individual investor is quite content to sit this one out after having been burned badly over the last three years. The market action has been attributed to better than expected corporate earnings reports. However, after digging into the fine print it becomes obvious that for the most part these earnings are suspect and are likely unsustainable. Many companies have been meeting or beating lowered earnings expectations and those earnings in many cases have been met due to severe cost-cutting measures (layoffs), write offs, and selling off businesses. In other words there is no real increase in “organic growth” as Wall Street terms it. It would appear that there are some rocky times ahead for the equities markets as these corporate earnings statements are digested. Two other items that are flying below Wall Street’s radar is that consumer spending is falling off fast and this is just before the critical holiday season, and the lingering effects of the dock worker slowdown on the west coast means parts for manufacturers and merchandise will not show up until late in the holiday season. Next quarter’s earnings reports could throw the equities markets to the mat once again. Meanwhile the price of gold has stabilized and has held in a nice range of $310 to $325 an ounce for the last few months – much better than the absurd lows of around $255 an ounce not long ago. This could be a solidifying phase where the price of gold will build a floor of support at around current levels before moving higher as economic news works against the equities markets in coming months.


- Jon H. Warner -


__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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Avatar
19.10.02 07:01:33
Beitrag Nr. 2.515 ()


http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021018/1/33w2h.html

International

Saturday October 19, 3:18 AM

Fed`s Minehan cites need to focus on supporting "fragile recovery"

The US economy remains in a fragile state, with consumer spending showing signs of weakness, Cathy Minehan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said.

"The consumer, if not the economy, may be starting to wobble," Minehan said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Newburyport, Rhode Island Rotary Club.


She cited continued declines in recent consumer confidence surveys, and expectations of slowing consumer spending in the fourth quarter. The recent boom in auto sales is likely to have brought some purchases forward, making a drop in auto sales probable, she said.

While uncertainty about the geopolitical situation is a risk, Minehan said that "even without further blows the economy remains fragile."

This fragility explains the continued low interest rates maintained by the Federal Open Market Committee, she noted.

"For now, given the prospects for low inflationary growth and the clear uncertainties in the forecast, in my view there is a need to focus on supporting the fragile recovery," she said.

Minehan said that businesses will need to pick up the slack from the consumer, and start ramping up payrolls and capital spending, in order for the recovery to gain strength.

This is important because of the vulnerability of consumption growth, she said.

"How long can the consumer hold out? The risks here seem firmly on the down side. At some point, the ongoing decline in household wealth could begin to take its toll on consumer spending," she cautioned.

"Sooner or later, businesses will have to become the key driver to the expansion, by increasing both hiring and investment in capital equipment," Minehan stated.

The major risk is that business confidence remains stagnant.

"If business confidence does not increase soon, the current balance between consumption and investment may not last, making even the recent tepid economic performance difficult to match," she warned.

Over the longer term, strong productivity growth helps ensure that the US economy will remain solid, however, Minehan also said.

"It is not clear when we will return to a solid pace of growth ... but long-term prospects remain solid, and monetary policy is supportive. Our economy (is) still likely to cook along," she concluded.




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Avatar
19.10.02 08:04:24
Beitrag Nr. 2.516 ()
Das nicht Einhalten der Maastrichter Verträge!

Bullish für Gold

Gruss

ThaiGuru





"E.U. Commission President Romano Prodi Thursday added to the impression that the pact may well be renegotiated further down the road, saying that the economic rules it imposes are "stupid." "

Nachdem unser guter Herr Eichel indirekt schon mal vorsichtshalber angekündigt hatte, dass Deutschland die Maastrichter Kriterien nicht erfüllen kann, oder will.

"German Finance Minister Hans Eichel Wednesday said Germany will likely breach the E.U.`s deficit limit of 3% of gross domestic product this year owing to tax-revenue shortfalls."

Wollten die Italiener da wohl nicht nachstehen, und gehen gleich noch ein ganzes Stück weiter. Die sind anscheinend vom Dollar nicht mehr so überzeugt, und wollen womöglich gleich zwei Fliegen mit einer Klappe schlagen?

Die Italiener planen anscheinend, Teile ihrer Dollar Währungsreserven zu verkaufen, um damit ihr Haushaltsdefizit zu verringern!

Die Reaktion darauf, von der EZB folgte postwendend:

"The European Central Bank warned Friday that a planned amendment for Italy`s finance bill for 2003 - that would enable the Bank of Italy to use foreign exchange reserves to reduce the public debt - could hurt the euro."

Klaus Liebscher von der Europäische Zentralbank Bank meinte zu den Wünschen einiger europäischer Finanzminister, das Schulden machen noch weiter auszubauen:

"And larger budget deficits don`t boost the economy, Liebscher said."

"Instead, they damage an economic upswing,".

"If a country`s budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit set by the treaty, it should get a penalty."



Quellen:
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021018/15/33w3h.html
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021018/15/33vrw.html
Avatar
19.10.02 14:42:17
Beitrag Nr. 2.517 ()


http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/0,1518,218926,00.html

Fischer fordert Neuinterpretation des Maastricht-Vertrages!

Fischer glaubt anscheinend, durch neues Schulden machen des Staates, das Unausweichliche abzuwenden?


"Fischer forderte grundlegende Reformen in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft: "Alle Akteure müssen jetzt begreifen, was die Stunde geschlagen hat: Arbeitgeber, Gewerkschaften, aber auch der Staat. Unsere Konsensgesellschaft braucht strukturelle Erneuerungen. Das wird wehtun und alles andere als einfach werden."
Avatar
19.10.02 15:07:06
Beitrag Nr. 2.518 ()
Avatar
19.10.02 15:11:33
Beitrag Nr. 2.519 ()
Es geht nicht um neue Schulden, sondern um Schuldrückzahlung per negativer Verzinsung sprich Inflation.

So funktioniert nun einmal der Sozialstaat. Die Rentner, die auf ihren Bundesschatzbriefchen sitzen, denken wohl, sie könnten ewig Zinsen kassieren.

Irgendwann ist der Schuldenberg nicht mehr tragbar. Dann muß entweder inflationiert werden oder aber der totale Konkurs droht. Entweder man zahlt den Rentnern keine Rente mehr, weil Pleite. Oder aber die elegante Inflationslösung: Die Form bleibt gewahrt, die Renten und Schulden werden in voller Höhe bedient, nur eben mit weniger Realwert.

Warum ein Verkauf der USD-Währungsreserven den Euro schwächen soll, ist mir ein Rätsel. Demnach dürfte der USD doch gar nichts wert sein. Schonmal auf Amerikas Währungsreserven geachtet? Nicht zu verachten sind Italiens Goldreserven.

Gruß
S.
Avatar
19.10.02 15:49:32
Beitrag Nr. 2.520 ()
@Saccard

Du schreibst:

"Irgendwann ist der Schuldenberg nicht mehr tragbar. Dann muß entweder inflationiert werden oder aber der totale Konkurs droht."

Das hatten die Deutschen doch alles schon mal erlebt!

Die Weitsichtigen, im Besitz von Gold!



Die grosse Masse, mit "Fiat Geld"!



Am Ende der Hyperinflation im März 1924, hatte man mit einer 20 Mark Gold Münze, die Kaufkraft von, sage und Schreibe, 14,520,000,000,000.- (Vierzehneinhalb Billionen!) Papier Reichsmark, in der Hand.

Geschichte neigt dazu sich zu wiederholen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru
Avatar
19.10.02 18:57:14
Beitrag Nr. 2.521 ()
Am 15.2.24 gab die Reichsbank die Banknote mit dem höchsten Nennwert der deutschen Geschichte heraus:

100 Billionen Mark = 100.000.000.000.000!


http://finanzen.netscape.de/finanzen/business/topthema/conte…

Mit Datum 15.3.1924 wurde die letzte Reichsbanknote der Hyper Inflationszeit herausgegeben:

5 Billionen Mark = 5.000.000.000.000.-


Datum Ungefährer Wert eines US $ gegenüber der Mark


01.01.1920 50 Mark
01.01.1921 75 Mark
01.01.1922 190 Mark
01.07.1922 400 Mark
01.01.1923 9.000 Mark
01.06.1923 100.000 Mark
01.08.1923 1.000.000 Mark
01.09.1923 10.000.000 Mark
10.10.1923 10.000.000.000 Mark
25.10.1923 1.000.000.000.000 Mark
15.11.1923 4.200.000.000.000 Mark

Bereits ab August 1923, der Blütezeit der Inflation, gab es bereits die mit Gold gedeckten Zwischenscheine der Reichsbank auf Schatzanweisungen des deutschen Reichstages. Sogenanntes "Wertbeständiges Notgeld" das anstelle der Inflationsscheine verwendet wurde.

In Realität waren diese Scheine aber nur teilweise mit Gold abgedecht, trotzdem vertraute die Masse der Leute sofort diesen Geldscheinen.




Auch damals galt:

Golddeckung = Preisstabilität
Avatar
20.10.02 09:36:45
Beitrag Nr. 2.522 ()
To: TA Students
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: 10/18/2002
RE: Fibonacci Retrenchments -- Support & Resistance


http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/lessons/1…




GCZ02 December COMEX Gold
Note that gold has bounced up off a Fibonacci support line with incipient help from the MACD 3-6-7. The PDT will be the key indicator with the MACD 3-6-7 as a close second.

Gold is still down trending, but today witnessed some improvement across the board in our gold watch.



US Dollar Index (USDX)

The $ has gained some strength, but closed on a Fibonacci Resistance line. This resistance line and the top of the slightly rising wedge/flat top triangle will challenge further intentions to appreciate.

Gold and the Dollar are closely tied in an inverse relationship, so this chart is quite important to the gold price.




Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJII)

This index may have bottomed for the time being at a Fibonacci support line formed from the bottom of this market to the top 1981 to 2000-2001. The neckline of the head and shoulders is within a stone`s throw of tonight`s close.

My feeling is if the Dow stops here and falls, it will go all the way back to the area of recent reversal and potentially lower. If the Dow betters the neckline by 3%, then the bottom of the equities is in for some time to come.

The market will tell us.
Avatar
20.10.02 09:55:19
Beitrag Nr. 2.523 ()
Gold Locus
The Gold waves are very interesting right now

from Brian C Dobson
Gold Bug and Elliot Wave Analyst from Downunder
posted 19 October 2002

Avatar
20.10.02 11:18:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.524 ()


http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/19200210/default.ht…

Blackjack (10/19/02; 13:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 87811)

Pensions Underfunded

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Nearly half the pension plans for 500 companies in the Standard & Poor`s Index are underfunded, according to a report in Barron`s.

A total of 240 companies in the index -- or two-thirds of the 360 S&P 500 companies that have pension plans -- had underfunded plans at the end of 2001, according to the story in Saturday`s edition. That`s the highest level of underfunded plans in 10 years.


The effect could be devastating on companies` bottom lines, as they may have to dip into the corporate coffers in order to meet their obligations to pensioners.

"We have over $300 billion of pension-fund deficits in 2002 for S&P 500 companies," said Trevor Harris, head of Morgan Stanley`s valuation and accounting research group, according to the report. "That`s $300 billion of cash these companies have to come up with over the next few years, and $300 billion that comes out of corporate cash flow."

David Zion, an accounting analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, told Barron`s the number of companies with underfunded plans could rise to 325 by the end of next year, given the current market environment.

He said such companies as AMR (AMR: news, chart, profile), the parent of American Airlines, and Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT: news, chart, profile), face underfunded liabilities that exceed the companies` market capitalizations.

It appears Zion`s predictions are coming true. Associated Press reported late Friday that AMR, which lost $924 million in the third quarter, could face a $1 billion charge to cover pension liability this year unless investment returns improve.

AMR`s market capitalization now stands at roughly $700 million. The company`s shares closed Friday at $4.30, up 5 cents, and added another 20 cents to $4.50 after hours.

A company`s pension obligations depend largely on the number of retirees still in its system, plus external forces such as stock market performance.

Accounting rules allow companies to even out gains and deficits for pension plans over time. But in a protracted down market such the current one, some companies may have to go to the corporate cupboard to fund the plans.

Particularly hard hit are automakers, which have massive obligations to their workers. General Motors (GM: news, chart, profile) says its pension assets have dropped by 10 percent this year, and Ford (F: news, chart, profile) reports its return on assets is off by 15 percent. See related story.

The problem is surfacing elsewhere. Northrop Grumman`s (NOC: news, chart, profile) stock took a hit this week when the company reported, among other issues, uncertainty over what its pension obligations would be for 2003. Northrop said it was unable to offer guidance on 2003 net profits without a clear pension picture.
_____________

Pension losses combined with consumer weakness= Yikes.

Got Gold and Silver?
Avatar
20.10.02 11:53:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.525 ()

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2002/10/20/business/money/money…

Location: Sunday 20 Oct 2002 > Money

Gold and resources come up smelling like roses

Risk-adjusted unit trust performance survey shows exactly where current value lies, writes Ciaran Ryan

VOLATILE: Darryll Castle says predicting the gold price has not been easy


GOLD comes out a clear winner in the latest Risk Adjusted Performance Unit Trust Survey from Advanced Portfolio Technologies. Standard Bank Gold and Old Mutual Gold were runaway winners for the year to September on both a risk-adjusted and absolutereturn basis (see table).


Another surprising feature of the survey is the dominance of resources funds in the top 10 rankings. Oasis Crescent Equity is the only non-resources fund in the top 10, slipping from its top place in the same survey a year ago.


The predictive power of the APT survey has proven itself since it was first published in 2000. Investors who bought a basket of five-star funds - those generating strong returns at low risk - in equal weighting would have achieved an astounding 83.1% versus the 19.2% achieved by the JSE Securities Exchange over the 21 months to September 2002.


The predictive power of the survey also works for shorter periods: an equal investment in each of the 14 five-star funds in the June 2002 survey would have yielded a return of 0.62% compared with the JSE overall index`s loss of 10.69% over the three months to September.


"If you buy last quarter`s top-performing unit trust, chances are it will underperform over the next period," says Costas Stephanou, APT`s representative in South Africa. "But if you stick with those funds showing four or five stars on the risk-adjusted survey, chances are these funds will continue to outperform."


The risk-adjusted survey is stable, with relatively little movement from one quarter to the next. Only two funds (Investec Value and BoE Value) dropped from the five- to four-star category between June and September.


The APT survey differs from standard comparisons of unit trust returns by adjusting these returns for 20 different categories of risk. Two funds earning 20% for investors can have markedly different risk profiles. Over the long run, the fund with the lower risk compared to the average of all the funds in the market should outperform funds with higher risk.


The returns shown in the accompanying table do not include any management fees, upfront fees or distributions. Only funds that have been in existence for longer than a year are included.


By analysing the parallel history of all asset and fund prices and comparing them, the survey is able to map the "risk DNA" of each asset, investment fund and index. Performance is deflated or inflated in exact proportion to the risks the fund assumed.

"It is an anomaly that gold should be considered a safe haven in certain times, but also a high-risk investment," says Darryll Castle, manager of Standard Bank Gold.

Mike Schroder, head of research at Old Mutual Asset Managers, agrees, adding that Old Mutual Gold`s strong performance is primarily a function of the weak SA exchange rate as well as of the rising gold price. Old Mutual Gold`s winning bets included Goldfields and African Rainbow Minerals. Predicting the gold price has not been easy, adds Castle. "Central banks hold large amounts of gold stocks, and have been selling these over time.


"The gold price, therefore, has not traded in line with pure underlying supply-demand fundamentals for many years. Although volatile, it is steadier than it has been in years."


Ian Woodley, manager of third-placed Liberty Resources, says Harmony and Gold Fields were strong performers for the fund, as was Iscor, which benefited from the group unbundling.


Despite their perception of riskiness, resources shares are no more cyclical than the average SA industrial or financial share, according to Dirk Kotze, manager of Coronation Resources, which was ranked fourth in the APT survey with a risk-adjusted return of 87.9%. With only about 12 liquid resources stocks on the JSE, the fund broadened the portfolio to second-tier stocks like Transhex, AECI and Afrox, and about 10 small-cap stocks.


"We manage liquidity risk by taking some of our exposure through futures, enabling us to liquidate part of the portfolio instantly, at low cost," says Kotze.
Avatar
20.10.02 12:06:48
Beitrag Nr. 2.526 ()

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp…

Is America`s great real estate gold rush in trouble?

Bulls, bears clash over America`s hot real estate market


By Steve Kerch, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:00 PM ET Oct 18, 2002

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Plenty of people are talking about how they think there is a housing-price bubble. Bob Wilson has acted.

The account manager for a Southern California technology vendor sold his Orange County tract home for $665,000 in May, pocketing more than $400,000 in gains. But Wilson didn`t turn around and sink his cash into a newer, fancier home. He`s stashing his nest egg in cash and gold, renting a nearby house for two years, and waiting for home prices in what he thinks is a overheated Orange County market to tumble. Then he`ll step back in.


"Even though one`s house has the emotional aspect that stocks do not, a market is a market, and I truly believe there are fundamentals that apply to all types of markets," Wilson said. "They don`t go up forever, and they don`t go down forever."

"Needless to say, it was a very difficult decision to make with all the memories. After a lot of prayers, tears, and doubts we went for it. It was a kind of seize-the-moment` situation," he said. "We have come across others who have made the same decision, not a whole lot of people, but enough to call it some sort of uncommon trend."

Those who proclaim housing prices have risen too far, too fast and are due for a Nasdaq-style market correction would applaud Wilson`s move.

But critics of the doomsday view say home prices are not out of line with economic fundamentals, at least not anywhere but a handful of cities or neighborhoods. They say Wilson and others catching the profit-taker fever may be wishing they had held onto their residential investments.

"The prognosis for the for-sale housing market is good, thanks to improving job growth that is even better than is being reported by local newspapers, historically low mortgage rates that are under significant pressure to decline even further and strong demographics," said John Burns, a real estate consultant in Irvine, Calif.

The debate is playing out across the country, in the media, at cocktail parties, among economists and in the advance marketing for a January summit to be held on the topic in Los Angeles. See Resident Authority.

Too much debt

Bill Staton, a certified financial planner from Charlotte, N.C., says that home prices should be raising red flags.

"I am certainly not predicting a housing collapse like the Nasdaq waterfall, but the facts indicate we could be in for a sustained period of housing price weakness if not substantially falling prices in certain areas like San Francisco. Way too many families are way too stretched in their real-estate obligations, combined with all the other debt they owe," Staton said.

"The bubble is going to pop during the next several years -- if not sooner. Few people will know it because one characteristic of a bubble is that it`s hard to tell you`re in one until after it bursts. By then, it may be too late," he said.


The consequences to American homeowners` balance sheets could be immense. Buyers who put 20 percent down on a home purchase that falls 10 percent in value would see half their equity wiped out, according Michael Sklarz, chief valuation officer for FNIS, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based real estate consulting firm.

But Sklarz says the chances of that happening are remote. Instead, the market is more likely to shift from the one in which sellers have been in complete command to one in which buyers have more say. In that scenario, he says, more homes would be on the market, houses would take longer to sell and buyers would have better negotiating power.

"There`s nothing as extreme as a bubble," he said. "Some of the markets that are stretched, though, may move sideways for a certain amount of time." See analysis of potential bubble, and potential bargain, real estate markets.

Mortgage rates the key

Both sides of the bubble debate agree on one thing: If it weren`t for low mortgage rates, the housing market wouldn`t be anywhere near as resilient as it has been.


Looking at a simple comparison of home prices to household incomes, as some housing-bubble proponents do, housing affordability is near a record low, according to a Milken Institute study. But factor in interest rates, which have dropped to 6 percent from about 7.5 percent five years ago, and housing affordability has remained high. See full story.

"The main thing that would threaten to collapse housing prices is a sizable jump in interest rates," Sklarz said. (Will mortgage rates fall to 5 percent or rise slightly from their current level?)

Daniel Ward, a real estate investment and mortgage specialist in Oceanside, Calif., says three other factors could cause a dramatic drop in housing prices: a crisis in derivative investments among large financial institutions such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a credit squeeze on already overburdened and undersaving Americans or a world conflict that breaks the back of the U.S. economy.

"One last factor to be considered is a psychological one," Ward said. "Value is merely perceived. Markets can turn on a dime. In my opinion, just the mere fact that the debate on whether there is a housing bubble shows a loss of confidence in the strong housing market."

Ward says he thinks the nation already has reached the "peak" of the housing market.

"I believe that every market in the U.S. will be down, and down dramatically -- by as much as 40 percent -- within three to five years. Rates will stay low during this time, so there is no need to rush out and purchase or refinance a home."

Market already less heated

Regardless of whether any prices actually fall, recent data show that the housing market is cooling off. And home-price appreciation has steadily declined from a cyclical peak reached nearly two years ago.

Average U.S. home prices increased by 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2002 on a year-over-year basis, according to the most recent House Price Index released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. The number represents a continuing decline from the 9.2 percent gain recorded in the first quarter of 2001.


The second-quarter report showed only one market of 185 nationwide where prices declined year over year -- San Jose. The OFHEO index is considered the most comprehensive measure of home prices because it uses data from repeat sales of the same house, or refinancings of mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"The OFHEO report belies recent media reports of alleged house price bubbles that are forming or about to burst," said Gary Garczynski, president of the National Association of Home Builders.

"It indicates that home values have continued to improve at an historically healthy rate, but with some gradual and expected braking from the exceptionally strong pace at which they were gaining in the beginning of last year. There has been no dramatic slowdown, nor is there likely to be," he said.

Even the most prominent proponents of the bubble theory acknowledge that such an occurrence is unlikely nationally. Rather, they say, individual markets could see significant price declines as happened in New England in the late 1980s and in southern California in the early 1990s.

"Any bubble would have to be localized, maybe even in only one price range of homes. I don`t see the extraordinary markup usual to a bubble," said Jack Harris, a research economist of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. said this month that the risks of home-price declines have increased nationally, although the 32 percent jump in its risk index came from a relatively low level.

Housing fundamentals solid

Yet in many high-priced markets, values have been driven up not by speculative fever but by the fundamentals of supply and demand, said Raphael Bostic, director of the USC Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast.

"When buyers see home prices rising, they decide to jump in to the market while they can still afford housing. This is perhaps the ultimate buy and hold strategy -- just the opposite of speculation," Bostic says.

Population growth, immigration, the strong economy of the 1990s, and the lowest mortgage interest rates since the 1960s have helped to increase demand for housing nationwide, Bostic says.

But supply has not kept pace with demand in many regions because of high land costs, opposition to development, builders` liability concerns and a drawn-out permitting process. Only when the supply-demand imbalance is restored, he said, will prices moderate.


Steve Kerch is the real estate editor of CBS.MarketWatch.com in Chicago.
Avatar
20.10.02 13:40:36
Beitrag Nr. 2.527 ()


http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/10/20/1020de363528.htx

Weniger Geld für Arbeitslose

Herbstgutachten: Das Wachstum sinkt weiter. Die Bundesregierung will bei Erwerbslosen 1,3 Milliarden Euro sparen




Ratlosigkeit ist sowohl Finanzminister Hans Eichel (l.) als auch Bundes-kanzler Gerhard Schröder ins Gesicht geschrieben Foto: dpa

Berlin sob/-ng - Arbeitslose sollen künftig weniger Geld erhalten. Nach Informationen von WELT am SONNTAG will die Bundesregierung damit bereits im nächsten Jahr rund 1,3 Milliarden Euro einsparen.

Die Zahlungen an Arbeitslose mit Kindern würden künftig von 67 auf 60 Prozent des letzten Nettolohns gekürzt, stattdessen gebe es eine Pauschale von 35 Euro im Monat, berichtet der "Spiegel". Erwerbslose, die umschulen, sollen nicht mehr länger Arbeitslosengeld beziehen als andere Arbeitslose. Auch die Arbeitslosenhilfe soll für den Zeitraum einer Fortbildung nicht mehr aufgestockt werden. Zudem werde das Arbeitslosengeld künftig nicht jährlich an die Lohnentwicklung angepasst.


Ein Sprecher des Bundesarbeitsministeriums bestätigte die Pläne gegenüber WELT am SONNTAG. Sie seien "Teil des Hartz-Konzepts und eng geknüpft an das Vorhaben, Arbeitslose künftig schneller in Jobs zu vermitteln".

Die Arbeitgeber begrüßten das Vorhaben: "Das ist ein Schritt in die richtige Richtung. Das System wird damit vereinfacht, falsche Anreize werden zurückgenommen", sagte Christoph Kannengießer, Arbeitsmarktexperte der Bundesvereinigung der Arbeitgeberverbände, dieser Zeitung. Er kritisierte das Vorhaben aber als "nicht weit gehend genug". Die Bezugszeit des Arbeitslosengeldes müsse verkürzt und die Arbeitslosenhilfe mit der Sozialhilfe zusammengelegt werden. Zudem bezweifelt der BDA-Mann das von Rot-Grün angesetzte Einsparvolumen. Die Maßnahmen könnten frühestens für jene greifen, die nach dem 1. Januar 2003 arbeitslos würden.

Die Wachstums-Aussichten trüben sich unterdessen weiter ein. Die sechs führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute werden in ihrem für Dienstag erwarteten Herbstgutachten ihre Prognose für 2003 drastisch auf 1,4 Prozent senken; ein Institut rechnet sogar nur noch mit 0,9 Prozent. Im Frühjahr hatten die Institute für 2003 noch eine Wachstumsrate von 2,4 Prozent vorausgesagt. Für 2002 sehen sie nur noch ein Wachstumsplus von 0,4 Prozent. Der frühere Wirtschaftsweise Rolf Peffekoven bezweifelt angesichts der Haushaltslage, dass die für 2004 und 2005 vorgesehenen Steuersenkungen überhaupt stattfinden können.

Nach Einschätzung von Bundesfinanzminister Eichel kommen auf die staatlichen Haushalte weitere hohe Einnahmeausfälle zu. Es spreche alles dafür, dass die meisten Länderhaushalte für 2003 "verfassungswidrig" seien, sagte er der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung".

Eichel und Außenminister Fischer (Grüne) plädierten zudem für "mehr Flexibilität" bei der Auslegung des EU-Stabilitätspakts.

Fischer sagte: "Wenn die Konjunktur schlecht ist, müssen wir uns höher verschulden können." Eichels Staatsdefizit soll nach Berechnungen seines Hauses 2002 sogar auf 3,5 Prozent steigen.

******************************

Gold strong buy!!
Avatar
20.10.02 13:52:09
Beitrag Nr. 2.528 ()




Sonntag, 20. Oktober 2002 Berlin, 13:40 Uhr

Völlig aus dem Ruder gelaufen

Das 14,2-Milliarden-Euro-Paket von Rot-Grün wird zur Haushaltssanierung nicht ausreichen. Für 2003 ist mit weiteren Steuererhöhungen zu rechnen




Von Sonja Banze

Man kann auch bei sich selbst anfangen. Deutschland ist arm, Deutschland muss sparen, Deutschland kann sich keine sechshundertneunundsechzig Bundestagsabgeordneten mehr leisten. Um 66 Sitze hat das Parlament sich deshalb für die neue Legislaturperiode selbst dezimiert, was Schon-wieder-Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) immerhin gut zehn Millionen Euro im Jahr erspart - zu wenig.

Viel zu wenig. Denn die Löcher - inzwischen ist der Plural angesagt -, die Eichel in seinem Haushalt ausmacht, sind um einiges größer: Im laufenden Haushalt 2002 dürften an die 15 Milliarden Euro fehlen, für 2003 noch einmal 14,2 Milliarden Euro. Die Milliarden für 2002 können angesichts der Tatsache, dass das Jahr fast rum ist und eine Haushaltssperre kaum noch etwas bringt, nur über Kredite finanziert werden. Die 14,2 Milliarden für 2003 kratzte die rot-grüne Koalition vergangene Woche mühsam an allen Ecken und Enden zusammen, bei Tierfutter, Flugreisen und Dienstwagen, bei Mindeststeuer und Ökosteuer, bei Aktien, Rente und Bundesanstalt für Arbeit. Doch auch das - zu wenig.

"Das wird nicht reichen. In einem Jahr stehen wir wieder da und schnüren das nächste Finanzpaket", prophezeit Rolf Peffekoven, Professor für Finanzwissenschaft an der Universität Mainz, ehemaliges Mitglied im Sachverständigenrat und immer noch Mitglied in Eichels wissenschaftlichem Beirat. Der Finanzwissenschaftler hält die vom Finanzminister zu Grunde gelegte Wachstumserwartung von 1,5 Prozent für 2003 für "eher optimistisch". Peffekoven: "Ich sehe nicht, wo das herkommen soll."

Das trübe Szenario des ehemaligen Wirtschaftsweisen: "Es drohen weitere Steuererhöhungen." Schlimm genug. Doch es kommt noch schlimmer: Peffekoven hält es "angesichts der Haushaltslage für fraglich", ob die im Zuge der Fluthilfe von 2003 auf 2004 verschobene zweite Stufe der Steuerreform ebenso wie die für 2005 angesetzte dritte Stufe "überhaupt noch durchgeführt werden können". Macht zusammen noch einmal 15 Milliarden Euro versprochene Entlastung, die den Steuerzahlern vor der Nase weggezogen werden.

Die dagegen werden im kommenden Jahr auf Grund von Fluthilfe-Beschlüssen und neuestem Finanzpaket elf Milliarden Euro mehr auf Eichels Konten überweisen. Ungern. Klaus Bräunig, Mit-Geschäftsführer des Bundesverbandes der Deutschen Industrie: "Wir sind wirtschaftlich am Boden, da brauchen wir ein Aufbruchsignal. Niedrigere Steuern, nicht noch höhere." Auch Bräunig ist skeptisch in Sachen Wachstum: "Wenn wir über ein Prozent im nächsten Jahr kommen wollen, bräuchten wir einen Boom im zweiten Halbjahr, den ich jetzt erst recht nicht mehr sehe." Der BDI-Mann rechnet mit "weiterem Jobabbau" und hält für die Monate Januar und Februar eine Arbeitslosigkeit von 4,5 Millionen "für realistisch". Auch im Mittelstand, der nach Schätzungen der IKB Industriebank allein mehr als die Hälfte der Steuermaßnahmen von Eichels Finanzpaket schultern muss, warnt man vor dem Abbau von mehreren hunderttausend Jobs im kommenden Jahr.

Weniger Wachstum, weniger Jobs - die Crux: "Das Finanzpaket kommt in konjunkturell sehr schwierigen Zeiten und könnte das Wachstum noch zusätzlich dämpfen", sagt Dieter Vesper, Haushaltsexperte des Deutschen Instituts (DIW) für Wirtschaftsforschung in Berlin, der vergangenen Freitag noch an dem Herbstgutachten rechnete, das die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute am Dienstag vorlegen werden. Sicher ist: Die Prognose wird nach unten korrigiert. Von den 2,5 Prozent, die vor wenigen Monaten noch prophezeit, ist man mittlerweile weit abgerückt. Die Faustformel: Ein Prozent weniger Wachstum kosten den Staat Steuer- und Beitragseinnahmen sowie zusätzliche Ausgaben für die Arbeitslosigkeit von rund zehn Milliarden Euro, die dann irgendwie finanziert werden müssen.

Doch die Unwägbarkeiten liegen schon im Plan selbst: Dass die Bundesanstalt für Arbeit angesichts der Lage am Arbeitsmarkt tatsächlich im kommenden Jahr ohne Bundeszuschuss wird auskommen können, wie in dem Finanzpaket unterstellt, ist unwahrscheinlich. Die Lufthansa moniert, die geplante 16-Prozent-Mehrwertsteuer auf Flugreisen kollidiere mit EU-Recht, eine Anhebung der Beitragsbemessungsgrenze bei der Rente zöge Gleiches bei Krankenkasse und Arbeitslosenversicherung nach sich.

Und während Eichel also das gerade gepackte Paket wieder aufschnürt und nachbessert, reißt die Front schon wieder an anderer Stelle auf: Auch der Haushalt 2002 ist nicht mehr zu halten. Von einer 15-Milliarden-Euro-Lücke ist die Rede. Die unumgängliche Kreditfinanzierung dieser Haushaltslücke zieht eine Zinslast von 825 Millionen Euro nach sich, die auch irgendwie finanziert werden müssen. Die Kreditfinanzierung dieser Haushaltslücke würde die Defizitquote auf 3,7 Prozent treiben. Die Maastricht-Grenze, die im Jahr eine Neuverschuldung von nicht mehr als drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes zulässt, wäre damit gravierend verletzt, was eine Strafe aus Brüssel von bis zu zehn Milliarden Euro nach sich ziehen könnte. Und auch die müssen finanziert werden, irgendwie.

Einen ausgeglichenen öffentlicher Haushalt wird Eichel da 2004 wohl auf keinen Fall vorlegen können. Für 2006 sei dieses Ziel aber zu erreichen, so Goldman-Sachs-Volkswirt Dirk Schumacher, "vorausgesetzt die öffentlichen Hände verstärken ihre Sparmaßnahmen".

Daran mag derzeit kaum einer glauben: "Der Haushalt ist vollkommen aus dem Ruder gelaufen", urteilt Finanzfachmann Rolf Peffekoven. Wenigstens gibt es 58 Bundestagsabgeordnete, die das nicht mehr erleben müssen.

***************************


Gold strong buy!!!
Avatar
20.10.02 14:07:55
Beitrag Nr. 2.529 ()


http://www.faz.net/IN/Intemplates/faznet/default.asp?tpl=faz…



Der Auftragseingang bei Ericsson schrumpft auf die Hälfte

Hellström erwartet Gewinn "irgendwann im nächsten Jahr" / Notierung an den deutschen Börsen endet



Telefon AB LM Ericsson, Stockholm. Der Bericht des schwedischen Mobilfunkkonzerns zum dritten Quartal hat in fast allen Bereichen düsterere Zahlen als erwartet gebracht. Ericsson nannte für das dritte Quartal einen bereinigten Vorsteuerverlust von 3,9 Milliarden Kronen (427 Millionen Euro). Analysten hatten nur einen Verlust von 3,2 Milliarden Kronen erwartet. Den Quartalsumsatz bezifferte Ericsson mit 33,5 (Vorjahr: 47) Milliarden Kronen, was leicht unter den Analystenerwartungen von 33,7 Milliarden Kronen lag. Besonders erschreckt zeigten sich die Beobachter über den Auftragseingang, der sich im dritten Quartal netto - also unter Einbeziehung von zurückgezogenen Aufträgen vor allem durch die angeschlagenen deutschen Netzbetreiber Mobilcom und Quam - auf 2,25 (4,19) Milliarden Euro fast halbierte. "Die Aufträge waren ein Albtraum - wir haben sie schlecht erwartet, aber nicht so schlecht", sagte Analystin Helena Nordmann-Knutson von Ohman Brokerage. Das lasse mit Skepsis in die Zukunft sehen. Auch der Mittelabfluß von 2,7 Milliarden Kronen sei zu beachten, sagte Jan Ihrfeldt von der Swedbank. "Ich denke, sie versuchen die Erwartungen für das kommende Jahr zu reduzieren", fügt er hinzu. Als einzigen positiven Aspekt hoben Analysten hervor, daß die drastischen Kosteneinsparungen besser als erwartet verlaufen und die Risiken aus Kundenfinanzierungen verringert worden sind.

Der Vorstandsvorsitzende Kurt Hellström sagte, er rechne mit einer Rückkehr zu Gewinnen "irgendwann" im kommenden Jahr. Viele Kunden bauten ihre Mobilfunknetze der dritten Generation langsamer auf oder seien in weniger Märkten vertreten. Der schwedische Ministerpräsident Göran Persson sagte, das schlechte Ergebnis sei "wie erwartet"; seine unübliche Stellungnahme weist auf die noch immer starke Bedeutung, die Ericsson für die schwedische Wirtschaft wie auch Stimmung und Selbsteinschätzung hat.

Ericsson-Aktien verloren im Verlauf 4,8 Prozent auf 4,72 Kronen. "Die Leute haben im Moment nicht viel Vertrauen in die Aktie", sagte ein Aktienhändler. Ericsson kündigte am Freitag an, seine Notierungen an den Börsen in Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg sowie in der Schweiz und an der Euronext in Paris zu beenden. "Mehr als 99 Prozent" allen Handels geschehe derzeit an der OM-Börse in Stockholm. Dort liegt Ericsson - vor einem Jahr noch unbestrittenes Flaggschiff der schwedischen Wirtschaft -, gemessen am Börsenwert, nur noch auf Rang 13. Der Börsenwert brach innerhalb von zwei Jahren von 167 auf 8 Milliarden Euro ein.

Der Markt für Mobilfunksysteme, auf dem Ericsson weiterhin Weltmarktführer ist, wird in diesem Jahr nach Einschätzung des Unternehmens um 20 Prozent unter dem Vorjahr liegen; bei Ericsson werde der Rückgang stärker sein als im Gesamtmarkt. Die Zahl enttäuschte die Analysten, da Konkurrent Nokia am Donnerstag eine bessere Entwicklung im Geschäft mit dem Mobilfunksystem in Aussicht gestellt hatte. Hellström konnte keinen Optimismus verbreiten: "Es sind auch in naher Zukunft keine Änderungen zu erkennen. Die Investoren halten sich weiter zurück." Für das kommende Jahr rechnet er mit einem weiteren Rückgang des Marktvolumens.

Auch die gemeinsame Handy-Produktion mit dem japanischen Konzern Sony brachte wieder einen Verlust von 55 Millionen Euro bei einem Umsatz von 900 Millionen Euro und einem Verkauf von fünf Millionen Mobiltelefonen. Obwohl das Gemeinschaftsunternehmen mit Sony länger Verluste ausweist als geplant, bezeichnete Hellström die Zusammenarbeit als "sehr vielversprechend". Nach seiner Schätzung werden in diesem Jahr 390 Millionen Handys in aller Welt verkauft. Nokia geht weiterhin von 400 Millionen verkauften Handys aus. Nach der Markteinführung neuer Modelle im unteren und mittleren Preissegment erwartet Sony Ericsson ein lebhafteres Geschäft im vierten Quartal. Im Handy-Geschäft will Ericsson wie schon angekündigt keine weiteren Barinvestitionen tätigen.

Bis Ende des Jahres soll die Beschäftigtenzahl des größten Industrieunternehmens in Schweden von derzeit 72 000 auf 60 000 abgebaut werden. Vor Beginn der Telekom-Krise hatte Ericsson mehr als 100 000 Beschäftigte. (vL./ht.)

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 19.10.2002, Nr. 243 / Seite 16
Avatar
20.10.02 14:16:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.530 ()




http://www.bild.t-online.de/?toc=/geldboerse/toc/toc.html&bo…



BKA warnt vor Terroranschlägen

Das Bundeskriminalamt warnt vor einer erhöhten Gefahr terroristischer Anschläge in Deutschland. Nach Einschätzung der Sicherheitsbehörden könnten erstmals Einrichtungen in Deutschland selbst Ziel islamistischer Attentäter werden, meldete „Der Spiegel“ am Samstag vorab.

Der „Focus“ berichtete ebenfalls unter Berufung auf das BKA von einer verschärften Sicherheitslage. Für deutsche Einrichtungen im Ausland gelte die höchste Sicherheitsstufe.


**********************************************

Gold strong buy!

Gruss

ThaiGuru
Avatar
20.10.02 14:28:50
Beitrag Nr. 2.531 ()


http://www.disastermagazine.com/Features/Great%20Depression/…

SPECIAL REPORT

Are We On The Brink Of A Great Depression?


Dr. Ravi Batra

Important Points In This Article:

The world is already heading toward an inflationary global Depression, which will last for most of this decade. It`s too late to stop it.

The economic conditions in America today are worse than
they were in 1929 when the stock market crashed and the infamous Great Depression began.


The European Union will fair better than other nations and regions of the world in the Depression.

The stock market will continue to experience wide fluctuations as investors - who have known only prosperity and never a severe Bear market - struggle to make money.

The US dollar will collapse.

President Bush`s income tax rebate will not work as intended. Instead, it will make matters worse because it favors the wealthy, not the poor or the middle class.

There will be a momentous social upheaval in the United States and in the world in general. This process has already begun and, of great concern, it will not be a smooth transition. It will be marked by years of violence
and strife.

Full report:

http://www.disastermagazine.com/Features/Great%20Depression/…
Avatar
20.10.02 14:35:05
Beitrag Nr. 2.532 ()
Ich weiss nicht, ob dieser Chart hier schon mal eingestellt wurde.

Kommentar von Uwe Warmbein:

Dargestellt ist das Verhältnis (Ratio) Dow Jones dividiert durch den Goldpreis. Steigt das Ratio, performt der Dow besser als Gold und umgekehrt. (Ein Bild sagt mehr als tausend Worte. Und die regelmäßigen Zweifler sollten sich dieses Bild hin und wieder anschauen.)




Gruss Mic :)
Avatar
20.10.02 15:30:59
Beitrag Nr. 2.533 ()


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50655-2002Oct…

For Japan, It`s Every Which Way But Back

By Adam Posen

Sunday, October 20, 2002; Page B05

Japan is about to surprise us. People have grown so accustomed over the past 10 years to seeing the world`s second-largest economy mired in stagnation that many have almost stopped worrying about the risks posed by the giant`s fragility. Japan`s passive population, famously thrifty and rapidly aging, appears to accept the country`s decline. Even frustrated U.S. officials have come to doubt whether change is possible. But the opposite is true: The Japanese economic condition is about to change radically, and probably for the worse. This would deal a body blow to an already weak global economy.

Japan may not be the next Argentina, but it cannot continue to be the slowly declining economic power of the past decade. This year, after a decade of fiscal erosion, spiraling private debt and price deflation, the country finds itself in a position of acute vulnerability to any external shock. The problem throughout the `90s was that each succeeding year of slow or negative growth reduced tax revenues but created an ongoing need for public works and social spending. After averaging less than 1.4 percent real growth a year since 1991, Japanese gross public debt is now more than 150 percent of a year`s national income -- twice that of the United States. Japanese government bonds carry a lower rating than Botswana`s. The government has little room left in which to react to events.

Nor has the government been able to break what economists call "debt deflation ," a vicious self-reinforcing cycle, last seen during the Great Depression, where companies and individuals hit by falling prices and incomes are unable to service their outstanding debt obligations and so default or sell their assets. These defaults and fire sales drive prices down further and dry up bank credit, leading to another round of failures. Japan is well into its fourth year of declining prices, thanks largely to the perverse policies of the Bank of Japan, the country`s central bank (no other country has suffered more than a calendar quarter of general price declines since World War II).

Partly as a result, in the past year Japan`s corporate sector has been defaulting on loans faster than the banks can write them off. This erodes the banks` capital, which encourages them to avoid formal bankruptcy by rolling over what non-performing loans they can conceal while cutting back on new lending. The resulting credit crunch then fuels further drops in demand and prices. It also adds to the stock of Japanese bad debt, now estimated at more than $1 trillion.

Even a wealthy country runs out of funds at some point, and even timid older savers want to withdraw their money when it becomes obvious that their banks are bankrupt. In 1997, when economists first began to worry seriously about Japan, these limits were still far off. Debt deflation was merely a prospect of what might happen if the Japanese government did not take corrective action.

By this past April, however, I was able to forecast that Japan was more likely than not to fall into financial crisis by this fall because these problems had simply grown too large. Debt deflation had become a reality, and more and more savers and foreign investors had started withdrawing their money. The by-then heavily indebted Japanese government was no longer able to forestall bank runs by throwing money at the banks and the stock market without also inducing panic in the bond market. All it would take for the system to be overwhelmed was some unforeseen external shock.

That shock came in the form of the late-summer decline in the U.S. and global stock markets and its negative implications for U.S. import demand. The resulting drop in the Japanese stock market would have forced the banks to declare ruinous losses on their stock holdings in earnings reports at the end of September. On Sept. 19, the Bank of Japan revealed the depth of its concerns by announcing a plan to buy some stocks directly from private banks in hopes of provoking a government response. The bank, like the U.S. government, clearly believed that a controlled implosion of the Japanese banking system was preferable to an unplanned collapse.

On Sept. 30, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reshuffled his cabinet. The discredited Hakuo Yanagisawa was replaced as minister for financial services by Heizo Takenaka, a noted economist and the only true reformer already appointed by Koizumi (as economics minister, which he remains). Takenaka assembled a commission of private-sector hard-liners on the banks and pledged to report by the end of October on the real state of the banking system and the steps needed to clean it up.

Japanese bank stocks and stocks of indebted businesses tanked, and the overall Nikkei stock average hit 19-year lows earlier this month. This was not surprising, since an honest report from Takenaka`s team would call for the closure of many banks and the forced recapitalization of most of the rest of the Japanese banking system, hurting so-far protected shareholders. Some transitional contraction in the Japanese economy would be expected as capital was reallocated.

Takenaka`s appointment brings matters to a head. It simultaneously makes real financial reform more likely than at any time since Japan`s bubble burst and all but ensures an overt financial crisis if reforms are not fully implemented. Either way, there is no going back to the slow decline of the past decade. Neither Japanese savers nor foreign investors will leave their money in the system knowing that the Bank of Japan and the country`s financial services minister have confirmed that assets are at risk in the banks.

Entrenched interest groups -- including the small banks most likely to be closed, indebted construction firms and the rural Diet members who pay for their safe seats by protecting the banks and channeling pork-barrel projects to those firms -- will oppose Takenaka`s effort. If they succeed in frustrating bank closures, reform in Japan is dead. In that case, there will be an abrupt sell-off of yen-denominated assets.

Even if Takenaka succeeds in pushing through a bank reform program, a crisis could still occur. Because closing banks and bankrupt companies creates short-term unemployment and lets deflation continue, bank reform alone is not enough. A supportive macroeconomic environment must be provided to cushion the transition. There should be a policy package of aggressive monetary expansion and targeted fiscal stimulus combined with the financial cleanup.

We should not be too optimistic about such a deal being made. The Bank of Japan has repeatedly insisted that financial reform must precede any truly expansionary policy on its part. Because of a shortsighted focus on the loss of revenues, the Ministry of Finance has resisted sensible temporary tax cuts or expansion of Japan`s limited safety net. Politically, the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Services Agency have been playing chicken with each other for the past four years, each wanting the other two agencies to take proactive steps -- and thereby admit past mistakes -- first. If the macroeconomic policymakers, however, wait to stimulate until after Takenaka delivers bank closures, it may be too late. Then we would see the same sell-off of Japanese assets as in the scenario of reform failure, just a few weeks or months later.

In either case, the Japanese government would try to prop up securities prices, but with the financial system already so weak, the public budget would be unable to support the added burden. Bond downgrades would follow, interest rates would rise and Japanese investment would collapse. Rising interest rates would wipe out banks that had eluded closure but held vast quantities of low-interest Japanese government bonds. Japanese savers fearing default would move their assets into cash or gold or out of the country, further starving the Japanese economy of funds.

The yen would fall drastically, below 150 to the dollar, feeding trade conflicts with the United States and East Asia, as well as Chinese opportunism in the region, with significant foreign policy implications. A Japanese crisis would also reinforce the globalization backlash occurring in Latin America. All the model emerging markets of the early `90s -- South Korea and Brazil, Thailand and Argentina -- would say, with some justification, "We followed your models, we adhered to IMF reform programs when those models failed, and we end up hit hard once again because a wealthy country did not take the difficult steps we were forced to take. What is the point of playing by your rules?" Of course, Japan`s contraction would also reduce already anemic world growth, putting more Americans and Europeans out of work.

On the other hand, if Takenaka does succeed in cleaning up the banks, and if the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance do provide the needed macroeconomic support -- and if the U.S. government puts sufficient pressure on the Japanese government to make all this happen, because it almost certainly will not in the absence of such pressure -- then it is also the end of Japan as we have come to know it, but in a better way.

Within six months or less, Japanese stock and real-estate prices would hit bottom and begin to rise. If unemployment were allowed to rise as well, meaning that restructuring was taking place, the yen would not have to fall so far or for so long. Within a year to 18 months, the Japanese government could start reselling distressed assets and nationalized financial firms to the private sector, shoring up the public balance sheet and putting people back to work. All of the technological prowess, human capital and accumulated savings that had been squandered by 10 years of self-destructive policies would at last be gainfully reemployed. Japan will never grow again the way it did in the 1950s and `60s, but it could easily more than double its growth rate of the `90s for the foreseeable future.

It could go either way, and we will find out which it is going to be -- crippling financial crisis or a fresh start -- before the year`s end. But one thing is already clear: Japan will not remain as it has been.

Adam Posen, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, is the author of "Restoring Japan`s Economic Growth" (IIE) and the forthcoming "Germany in the World Economy After EMU" (IIE).



© 2002 The Washington Post Company
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20.10.02 23:47:24
Beitrag Nr. 2.534 ()


http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid…

Sonntag 20.10.2002, MEZ 22:32

Terrorgeld gesucht

Die amerikanische Regierung schickt einen hohen Beamten auf Europatour. Im Koffer vermutlich eine Liste mit verdächtigen Firmen und Organisationen.



Erster Halt: die Schweiz. Jimmy Gurulé trifft aber offiziell nicht mit den Schweizer Behörden zusammen.

Die "NZZ am Sonntag" schreibt, dass Jimmy Gurulé der oberste Beamte des amerikanischen Finanzministeriums im Kampf gegen die Finanzierung des Terrorismus ist. Voraussichtlich wird Gurulé am Montag mit dem Schweizer Bundesanwalt Valentin Roschacher zusammentreffen.

Mittagessen mit UBS und Credit Suisse

Ein offizielles Treffen mit Vertretern der Schweizer Behörden steht allerdings nicht auf dem Programm. Wohl aber ein Mittagessen am Dienstag mit Vertretern der Schweizer Grossbanken UBS und Credit Suisse.


Recherchen der "NZZ am Sonntag" ergaben, dass niemand etwas sagen will über die genauen Hintergründe der Europatour von Gurulé, die ihn auch nach Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, Dänemark und Schweden führen wird.

Saudische Gelder im Visier?

Die "Washington Post" beruft sich auf hohe Regierungsbeamte im Finanzministerium und schreibt, dass Gurulé eine Liste von in den USA verdächtigen Personen, Firmen und Organisationen nach Europa bringe. Darauf würden vor allem "reiche saudiarabische Banker und Geschäftsleute" zu finden sein.


Im August hatte die "Financial Times" den Abfluss saudischer Gelder aus den USA auf zwischen 100 und 200 Mrd. Dollar geschätzt. Gemäss Angaben der Schweizer Nationalbank lagerten Ende 2001 saudische Guthaben in der Höhe von 18,8 Mrd. Franken auf Schweizer Bankkonten.

Wie stark diese Konten seither gewachsen sind, ist nicht klar. Gurulé selber hat sich in der Zwischenzeit vom Begriff der "Saudi-Liste" distanziert, schreibt die "NZZ am Sonntag".

Schweiz sperrte Konten

Gleichzeitig habe er aber bestätigt, er werde mit den "Verbündeten Europas" eine Liste von "bedeutenden und wichtigen Zielen im Kampf gegen die Finanzierung des Terrorismus" diskutieren.

In der Schweiz könnte demnach die inzwischen liquidierte Tessiner Finanzgesellschaft Al-Taqwa/Nada ein Thema sein. Die Bundesanwaltschaft führt ein Strafverfahren gegen die Verantwortlichen.

In der Schweiz und Liechtenstein sind seit den Terroranschlägen in den USA Bankkonten mit mehreren Dutzend Millionen Franken gesperrt worden.

swissinfo und Agenturen
Avatar
21.10.02 00:11:25
Beitrag Nr. 2.535 ()
Harmony, South Africa`s third largest miner, is the first of the top three producers to report its results on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters see headline earnings coming in at about 382c, down from last quarter`s 402c.

AngloGold follows on October 31, with analysts expecting headline earnings per share - which strip out exceptional items and their tax effects - of 853.25c, versus last quarter`s 815c.

Analysts also expect AngloGold to further reduce its hedge book of forward gold sales, after slashing it by 2.4 million ounces to 10.5 million ounces in the June quarter. At the time, AngloGold CEO Bobby Godsell promised more cuts.

AngloGold is the most heavily hedged producer and is seen shackled by its hedge book, which limits miners` ability to benefit from strong upticks in the gold price.

Gold Fields is seen posting headline earnings per share of about 165c, down from last quarter`s 251c, on November 7. The country`s second-largest producer posted record earnings for the quarter ended June - its third consecutive quarter of record earnings.

Smaller miner ARMgold reports next Wednesday, followed by Durban Roodeport Deep on Thursday.
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21.10.02 00:12:14
Beitrag Nr. 2.536 ()
http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/10/20/1020fi363394.htx?search=…

Vom Glück des Schürfens
Gold macht als feine Beimischung im Depot Sinn. Als sicherheitsorientierte Geldanlage ist das Edelmetall sehr spekulativ, also weniger geeignet
Von Wolfgang Sienel
Frankfurt - Kein älterer Anleger dürfte die heißen Wochen des Jahres 1980 je vergessen. Es war, als würde der Goldrausch des späten 19. Jahrhunderts eine späte Neuauflage erleben. Nur, dass damals lediglich noch ganz wenige abenteuerlustige Zeitgenossen die Jagd nach dem gelben Metall mit Picke, Spaten und Sieb aufnahmen. Das Gros der Menschen kaufte 1980 Barren und Münzen bei der Bank oder Sparkasse, getrieben von der Hoffnung, dass der Wert der privaten Goldschätze weiter steigen würde. Und tatsächlich kletterte der Goldpreis bis auf 800 US-Dollar je Feinunze, das sind rund 31 Gramm. Zehn Jahre zuvor hatte man dieselbe Menge Gold noch für 50 Dollar kaufen können. An diese Boomphase dürfte sich mancher Investor seit Anfang 2001 noch lebhafter erinnern. Denn nach mehr als zwanzigjähriger Talfahrt hat Gold zu einer erneuten Rally angesetzt. Preise von zuletzt über 320 Dollar hatte es seit mehr als fünf Jahren nicht gegeben. Steht Gold demnach vor einer Renaissance? Bietet das gelbe Metall den letzten sicheren Hafen, in den man seine von Börsenbaisse und Niedrigzins gebeutelten Vermögensreste retten kann? Bis in die 80er-Jahre hinein galt es als feststehende Regel, dass Gold- oder Minen-Aktien in keinem gut sortierten Depot fehlen sollten. Dafür sprach eine alte Lebensweisheit, wonach man für eine Unze Gold immer ein gutes Mittagessen bekommt. Darin kam der unerschütterliche Glaube zum Ausdruck, dass Gold seinen Wert nicht verlieren würde. Die Anleger der letzten beiden Jahrzehnte machten da eine ganz andere Erfahrung. Innerhalb von 20 Jahren verlor Gold annähernd 70 Prozent seines Wertes, wenn man den Höchstpreis im Jahr 1980 als Basis nimmt.

Für den rapiden Verfall gab es viele Gründe. So überstieg das Angebot stets die Nachfrage. Zudem betrachtete eine Reihe von Notenbanken Gold nicht länger als unverzichtbare Rücklage und verkaufte große Teile ihres Goldschatzes. Wesentlich wichtiger dürfte jedoch sein, dass der Goldrausch des Jahres 1980 den Preis des Metalls in ähnlicher Weise über jede Vernunft gesteigert hat wie in den Jahren 1999 und 2000 der Run auf Aktien. Der Rückgang des Goldpreises seit 1980 dürfte demnach eher eine Normalisierung darstellen, die natürlich Übertreibungen nach unten nicht ausgeschlossen hat. Wie 1980 sind die Anleger auch jetzt wieder verunsichert. Damals waren die Ölpreiskrisen, hohe Inflation und der sowjetische Einmarsch in Afghanistan die Ursachen. Heute sind die Börsen im Niedergang, der Kapitalmarktzins am Boden, die Konjunktur in der Flaute.

Vor diesem Hintergrund sind zahlreiche Investoren auf der Suche nach Alternativen auf Gold gestoßen. Die Folge: Erstmals seit Jahren hat der Goldpreis seinen langfristigen Abwärtstrend durchbrochen, und Goldminenindices und Edelmetallfonds stehen ganz oben auf den Performance-Listen.

Weitere Risiken kommen hinzu: Der 11. September 2001 und seine Folgen, der ungelöste Nahostkonflikt, der drohende Irak-Krieg, eine mögliche Finanzkrise in Brasilien, die konjunkturelle Zukunft in den westlichen Industrieländern.

Dies alles sind Gründe, Vermögensanlagen gegen mögliche Turbulenzen gut abzusichern. Gold, Goldminenaktien oder Edelmetallfonds können dabei eine wichtige Rolle einnehmen. Denn die Wertbeständigkeit des Edelmetalls hat sich in der Vergangenheit gerade in Krisenzeiten gezeigt - auch während der vergangenen Monate.

So weist das World Gold Council für das erste Quartal 2000, als die Aktien noch boomten, nur einen weltweiten Goldabsatz für Investitionszwecke von 2,4 Tonnen aus. Nach dem Platzen der Spekulationsblase am Aktienmarkt stieg der Absatz sprunghaft an, bis er im dritten Quartal 2001 fast 128 Tonnen erreichte. Die Basis des Goldgeschäfts bilden natürlich der Verbrauch der Juweliere, die Industrie und Zahnersatz, doch der stagniert seit Jahren. Dem steht ein wachsendes Angebot der Goldminen gegenüber, das noch durch Verkäufe von Notenbanken aufgestockt wird. Von daher seien keine Impulse für den Goldpreis zu erwarten, meint Andreas Speer von der Bayerischen Landesbank. Das Zünglein an der Waage von Angebot und Nachfrage spielten vielmehr die Kapitalanleger: "Sie entscheiden, welche Richtung der Goldpreis in den kommenden Jahren einschlagen wird."

Diese Investorengruppe ist aber ein launisches Völkchen. Das zeigte sich erneut in der abgelaufenen Woche. Als ein plötzlicher Stimmungsumschwung an den Börsen die Aktienkurse in ungeahntem Tempo steigen ließ, fiel der Goldpreis innerhalb weniger Tage um mehr als zehn US-Dollar trotz neuem Bombenterror auf Bali und weiterhin drohendem Irak-Krieg. Fazit: Ein kleiner Vermögensanteil von fünf bis höchstens zehn Prozent in Gold oder Goldminenaktien kann die Risiken eines Portefeuilles mildern. Ein größerer Anteil verbietet sich schon deshalb, weil Gold keine Zinsen abwirft und die Preise der Minenaktien doch immer nur auf die Goldpreisschwankungen reagieren.
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21.10.02 00:13:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.537 ()
http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/10/20/1020fi363414.htx

"Silber könnte das Gold als `Save Haven` ablösen"
Interview mit Andreas Speer, Senior Economist bei der Bayerischen Landesbank
WELT am SONNTAG: Jahrelang trugen Verkäufe der Notenbanken dazu bei, dass der Goldpreis unter Druck blieb. Ist diese Phase vorbei?

Andreas Speer: Zwischen 1990 und 2001 haben die Notenbanken im Schnitt zwischen zehn und 20 Millionen Unzen in den Markt gegeben. Das Washingtoner Abkommen jedoch, in dem sich 15 Notenbanken verpflichteten, bis 2004 jährlich nicht mehr als 400 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr zu verkaufen, dürfte den Angebotsdruck vorerst dämpfen.

WamS: Glauben Sie, dass die privaten Anleger größeres Interesse an Gold haben werden?

Speer: Davon gehe ich aus. Noch bis in die achtziger Jahre hinein galt die Regel, dass ein bestimmter Prozentsatz an Gold in keinem gut diversifizierten Portfolio fehlen darf. Mit dem Siegeszug der Aktienmärkte zu Beginn der achtziger Jahre verblasste der Glanz des Goldes.

WamS: Wird der Goldpreis weiter steigen?

Speer: Dafür würden etwa politische Instabilität oder eine Beschleunigung der Inflation sprechen. Mindestens genauso wichtig ist die künftige Performance der Aktienmärkte. Sollte diese weiterhin unterdurchschnittlich sein, dürfte das Interesse für das gelbe Edelmetall kontinuierlich zunehmen.

WamS: Welche Alternativen gibt es auf dem Edelmetallmarkt?

Speer: Silber halte ich für sehr interessant. Einerseits weist es eine hohe Korrelation zum Goldpreis auf. Auf der anderen Seite ist der physische Nachfrageüberhang noch ausgeprägter als beim Gold. Dies liegt daran, dass es im Produktionsprozess intensiver genutzt wird. Derzeit notiert Silber zwar relativ deutlich schwächer als Gold. Und das dürfte auch noch eine Zeit lang so bleiben. Diese Entwicklung sollte man deshalb auch noch abwarten. Für den langfristig orientierten Anleger bieten sich meines Erachtens danach aber gute Einstiegschancen.
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21.10.02 00:15:02
Beitrag Nr. 2.538 ()
http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/10/20/1020fi363396.htx

Zwölf Gramm Deutsche Mark für 130 Euro
Krügerrand und Goldeuro liegen im Trend der Münzensammler und Edelmetall-Spekulanten
Hamburg ts - Schon Voltaire wusste im 18. Jahrhundert zu berichten: "Papiergeld kehrt früher oder später zu einem inneren Wert zurück - null." Kein Wunder also, dass Gold- und Silbermünzen jahrhundertelang als eines der wichtigsten Zahlungsmittel galten. Wobei der Materialwert in etwa dem aufgeprägten Nennwert entsprach. Es gab aber auch Zeiten, da überstieg der Metallwert deutlich den Nennwert. So wie aktuell die 1-Mark-Gedenkmünze, die mit ihren zwölf Gramm Gewicht rechnerisch bei rund 130 Euro liegt.

Zu den Klassikern zählen vor allem der Krügerrand aus Südafrika, der Gold American Eagle aus den USA und der kanadische Gold Maple Leaf. Wobei es sich bei diesen Münzen weniger um Sammlerobjekte denn um Goldbarren in Münzform handelt. Folge: Der Preis schwankt entsprechend dem aktuellen Goldpreis.

Weiterer Unterschied zu "echten" Sammlermünzen: Die Zahl Letzterer ist limitiert und nicht vermehrbar. Beispielsweise Krügerrand und Maple Leaf dagegen werden laufend nachproduziert, um die Nachfrage befriedigen zu können. Und nur etwa zwei Dutzend Münzen aktueller Produktion sind weltweit als Bargeldersatz anerkannt. Dazu gehören zunächst sechs so genannte Bullion Coins - American Eagle, Britannia, Krügerrand, Nugget, Maple Leaf und Philharmoniker - sowie rund anderthalb Dutzend offizielle Neuprägungen. Bullion Coins sind Barrenmünzen, deren Gewicht exakt einer Feinunze Gold (31,10 Gramm) entspricht. Offizielle Neuprägungen sind historische Münzen wie der Schweizer Vreneli.

Kaufen und verkaufen können Anleger ihre Edelmetallmünzen bei fast jeder Bank. Allerdings empfiehlt sich im Vorweg ein Preisvergleich, denn nicht selten weichen An- und Verkaufskurse bei einzelnen Instituten bis zu zehn Prozent voneinander ab.

Unbedingt zu beachten ist schließlich die leidige Mehrwertsteuer. Der Erwerb von Anlagemünzen (Bullion Coins) ist in Deutschland seit 1993 umsatzsteuerfrei. Banken verlangen jedoch als Verkaufsgebühr einen Ausgabeaufschlag auf den inneren Metallwert - rund sieben Prozent pro Unze (beim Krügerrand etwas weniger). Diese Gebühr ist vergleichbar mit dem Ausgabeaufschlag bei Investmentfonds. Dabei gilt ferner: Je kleiner die Münze, umso höher die Gebühren.

Zu berücksichtigen ist in jedem Fall, dass es sich bei den Edelmetallmünzen um solche handelt, die im Ausgabeland als gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel gelten. Nur dann ist die Umsatzsteuerfreiheit gewährleistet. Ist dies nicht der Fall - darauf haben sich im Januar 2000 die 15 EU-Staaten geeinigt -, wird die jeweilige Mehrwertsteuer des Landes aufgeschlagen. Die Liste der steuerfreien Anlagegoldmünzen ist übrigens im Amtsblatt der Europäischen Gemeinschaften veröffentlicht und auch im Internet nachlesbar.
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21.10.02 00:16:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.539 ()
http://www.welt.de/daten/2002/10/20/1020fi363395.htx

Sichere Stangenware für das Depot im Keller
Der Kauf von Gold-Barren ist einfach
Frankfurt fhs - Früher war es meist die Furcht vor anrückenden fremden Truppen, die Menschen zum Kauf von Goldbarren trieb. Im schlimmsten Fall konnte man diese auf der Flucht mitnehmen. Heute ist es eher die Angst vor einer wirtschaftlichen Depression oder der Wunsch, etwas Werthaltiges zu besitzen, das man anfassen kann.

Der Kauf von Barren ist einfach. Die Frankfurter Sparkasse hat beispielsweise in ihrer Zentrale Goldbarren jederzeit vorrätig. An einer so genannten "Goldkasse" kann sie jedermann erwerben und direkt mit nach Hause nehmen oder in einen Safe einlagern. Der größte Barren wiegt ein Kilogramm, doch es gibt auch Barren zu 500, 250, 100, 50, 20, 15 und ein Gramm. Seltener wird die Unze nachgefragt, die 31,1 Gramm wiegt. Alle Barren bestehen aus 999er Feingold.

Ein Goldbarren von 250 Gramm kostete am Freitag rund 2650 Euro. Gebühren fallen dabei nicht an, der Verdienst der Bank liegt - ähnlich wie bei Devisen - in der Spanne zwischen An- und Verkaufspreis. So wurden am Freitag für den gleichen Barren beim Ankauf 2520 Euro bezahlt. Mehrwertsteuerpflichtig ist der Kauf nicht.

Im Gegensatz zu vielen anderen Banken können bei der Frankfurter Sparkasse auch Nichtkunden Gold kaufen. Allerdings müssen sie sich bei Käufen über 2500 Euro im Rahmen des Geldwäschegesetzes legitimieren. Für Kunden gilt dies ab 15.000 Euro. In anderen Banken gelten teilweise abweichende Regelungen.

Martin Ferdinand von der Frankfurter Sparkasse hat beobachtet, dass das Interesse an Goldbarren seit der Einführung des Euro angestiegen ist. Verstärkt wurde es auch durch die schlechte Entwicklung an den Aktienmärkten. "Das Sicherheitsdenken kommt jetzt wieder", so Ferdinand.

Meist erwerben die Kunden eher kleinere Goldvorräte. "Wir hatten in diesem Jahr aber auch schon einen Kunden, der 25 Kilogramm gekauft hat", berichtet Ferdinand. Für einen solchen Großeinkauf sollte man dann allerdings auch den Abtransport gut organisieren.
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21.10.02 00:31:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.540 ()
Es gibt noch einen Grund Gold zu kaufen.

Bei langfristigem Anstieg des GOP, bleibt die Wertsteigerung von Goldmünzen und Barren wenigstens Spekusteuer frei. :D

Gruss Mic :)
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21.10.02 00:38:07
Beitrag Nr. 2.541 ()
@Gringo1

Das sind ja ganz tolle Artikel, die Du da gerade eben posten konntest!

Hat die "Welt" den Stein der Weisen endlich gefunden?

Das wird der physischen Nachfrage nach Gold, und Silber, von Seite der deutschen Anleger, sicher gut tun.

Gruss

ThaiGuru
Avatar
21.10.02 00:40:59
Beitrag Nr. 2.542 ()


http://www.nzherald.co.nz/latestnewsstory.cfm?storyID=300018…

Otter Gold to delist from NZSE

21.10.2002 8.52 am

Australian gold exploration company Otter Gold Mines will be delisted from the New Zealand Stock Exchange on November 1.

The NZSE has advised Otter it does not comply with exchange listing rules because members of the public hold fewer than 25 per cent of shares.

Otter is 89 per cent owned by Australian mining giant Normandy.


The company said in a statement today that after November 1, its shares will only trade on the Australian Stock Exchange.

"It is the company`s intention to remain listed on the ASX as long as it continues to have sufficient minority shareholders or until the minority shareholders resolve to the contrary," the company said.

Otter recorded a full year loss of $24.9 million as a result of foreign exchange losses and a mine closure.

Otter last traded on the NZSE on August 22 at 31c.

- NZPA
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21.10.02 10:15:14
Beitrag Nr. 2.543 ()


http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/021021/15/33x9x.html

International

Monday October 21, 12:14 PM

Newcrest/1Q -3: Profit Weighed On By Delays To Shipments

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Australian gold miner, Newcrest Mining Ltd. (A.NEW), reported Monday unaudited 2002-03 first quarter net profit of A$6.4 million, compared with a A$72.3 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2001-02.
Gold production fell to 150,500 ounces for the quarter from 169,510 ounces in the fourth quarter.

Cash production costs rose slightly to A$232/oz in the first quarter from A$230/oz in the fourth quarter.


Newcrest/1Q -3: Profit Weighed On By Delays To Shipments

Newcrest said profit was weighed on by the delays to shipments of concentrate, resulting in a rise in inventories of A$8.4 million at quarter end.

Total sales revenue for the quarter fell to A$126 million from A$145.5 million in the fourth quarter. Operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose to A$37.4 million from A$32.8 million in the fourth quarter.

Gold sales fell to 134,739 ounces from 178,783 ounces in the fourth quarter, at an average realized price of A$600/oz, up from A$532/oz.

Newcrest`s out-of-the money foreign exchange hedging reduced the average realized gold price by A$47/oz.

Total production costs for the first quarter fell to A$371/oz from A$396/oz in the fourth quarter.

Total copper production fell to 14,718 metric tons from 16,250 tons in the fourth quarter.

Production at the Cadia mine in New South Wales fell to 73,511 ounces, from 75,693 ounces in the fourth quarter, with lower copper grades increasing the cash production cost at the mine to A$326/oz from A$285/oz.

At the new Ridgeway mine in NSW, production fell to 64,761 ounces from 67,654 ounces in the fourth quarter, weighed on by production testing that increased the amount of low-grade ore. Following the testing, Newcrest plans to increase the ore processing rate at Ridgeway to 5 million tons a year by the end of November. Cash production costs at Ridgeway fell to just A$75/oz from A$103/oz.

At Newcrest`s 82.5%-owned Gosowong mine in Indonesia, production fell to 12,116 ounces from 25,886 ounces as the mine processes lower-grade ore. Production in the second quarter is expected to be flat at around 12,000 ounces.

Rejuvenating Gosowong depends on the Indonesian authorities approving the development of the nearby Toguraci ore body. Approval requires legislative changes and the country`s Legislative Assembly is next due to meet in November.

The mark-to-market position of Newcrest`s hedge book at the end of the quarter was a negative A$933 million, comprising a negative A$550 million for gold, a negative A$336 million for currency, and a negative A$47 million for copper.

-By Andrew Trounson; Dow Jones Newswires;

61-3-9614-2664; andrew.trounson@dowjones.com
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21.10.02 10:40:01
Beitrag Nr. 2.544 ()


http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200210210730037006C.…

Hereward Ventures PLC
21 October 2002

21 October 2002



HEREWARD VENTURES plc

GOLD FIELDS EXERCISES OPTION TO INVEST US$2.5 MILLION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BULGARIAN GOLD PROJECTS

The Board of Hereward Ventures plc (`Hereward` or `the Company`), the Central and Eastern Europe gold explorer, is pleased to announce that Gold Fields Limited (`Gold Fields`), via their wholly owned subsidiary, Gold Fields Exploration BV have entered into a Joint Venture Agreement with Hereward in relation to the funding and development of its Bulgarian Permit areas (`Joint Venture properties`).

Under the terms of the Joint Venture Agreement, Gold Fields Exploration BV can earn a 51% interest in the Joint Venture properties, these being the Rosino, Gornoseltsi and Dikanyite Permit areas by the expenditure of US$ 2.5 million
prior to 31 December 2004. The Joint Venture properties can also include any new areas applied for by Hereward, in Bulgaria, during this period.

In addition, Gold Fields Exploration BV have the right to acquire a further 19% participating interest in the Joint Venture properties by the expenditure of a further US$10 million or by the delivery of a Bankable Feasibility Study in respect of any one development of all or part of the Joint Venture properties.

This agreement is pursuant to the Subscription Agreement entered into on 18 June 2002 between Orogen Holding (BVI) Limited (`Orogen`), a wholly owned subsidiary of Gold Fields and Hereward, whereby Orogen subscribed US$ 500,000 in respect of 4,921,018 ordinary shares of Hereward at a placing price of 7 pence sterling. As a result of this transaction Orogen became interested in 6.05% of the issued
share capital of the Company.

Speaking today, Mr David Bramhill, Managing Director said `The joint venture with Gold Fields will enable rapid exploration and evaluation activities to continue across the Company`s permit areas and also enable further drilling to extend the resource on the Rosino prospect. A drilling campaign is currently underway which we anticipate will further enhance the project`s economics and size.`

Exploration results at the Tashlaka Hill prospect within the Rosino permit area have been promising and substantive target identification and drilling has already taken place. These results include a notable drill intersection in drill hole R-203 of high-grade gold mineralization containing 26.3m @ 16.63 g/t Au, 14.1 g/t Ag and including 4.3m @ 85.95 g/t Au, 68.2 g/t Ag.

Gold Fields is one of the world`s largest unhedged gold producers with operating mines in South Africa, Ghana and Australia. Attributable gold production is approximately 4.1 million ounces per year with reserves and resources in excess of 148 million ounces. Gold Fields is listed on the Johannesburg (GFI), New York (GFI), London, Paris and Geneva stock exchanges.


For more information please contact:

David Bramhill Leesa Peters / Cindy Dennis
Hereward Ventures plc Capital PR
+ 44 (0) 117 957 3666 + 44 (0) 20 7618 7889
+ 44 (0) 780 154 0358 + 44 (0) 781 215 9885

Laurie Beevers/ David Youngman John Robertson / Robert Lo
W. H. Ireland Limited Nabarro Wells & Co. Limited
+ 44 (0) 161 832 2174 + 44 (0) 20 7710 7400




This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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21.10.02 10:48:49
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Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an feedback@wallstreet-online.de
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21.10.02 15:30:13
Beitrag Nr. 2.546 ()


http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021021/0647000245_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

S Africa`s Harmony Gold 1st Quarter Net $40.0 Million Versus 10.0 Million

Monday October 21, 6:47 am ET


Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. - Johannesburg

All figures in dollars and cents.

3 Months Sept 30:

2002 2001
Net Profit $40.0 mln $10.0 mln
Gold Produced 796,497 oz 616,038 oz
EPS 24.0 C 8.0 C
Cash Costs $/Oz 204 233
Avatar
21.10.02 15:56:41
Beitrag Nr. 2.547 ()
Sadam bringt anscheinend (sein?) Gold in Sicherheit!

Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://www.albawaba.com/news/index.php3?sid=230984&lang=e&di…

Report:

Saddam removing gold, valuables from Baghdad

20-10-2002, 11:22



In anticipation of a United States strike against Iraq, President Saddam Hussein has started removing gold bars and valuable works of art from the capital of Baghdad to the remote northwestern town of Abu Kamal near the border with Syria, a German newspaper reported on Sunday.

Several trucks laden with gold bars and artworks from museums in Baghdad and the northern city of Mosul traveled under heavy guard to Abu Kamal, where they were met by Syrian and Jordanian businessmen, the Sunday paper Welt am Sonntag cited Iraqi opposition and Western intelligence sources as saying.

European diplomats in the Syrian capital confirmed "the traffic of heavy trucks between Syria and Iraq has increased sharply in the past few weeks - in both directions," the newspaper added. (Albawaba.com)
Avatar
21.10.02 17:39:03
Beitrag Nr. 2.548 ()
Wie war das jetzt noch?

Hab`s doch glatt vergessen!


Avatar
21.10.02 18:18:20
Beitrag Nr. 2.549 ()
"Die Richtung stimmt mal wieder" - wolltest du das posten?
Avatar
21.10.02 18:29:44
Beitrag Nr. 2.550 ()
@Ribaldcorello

Das würde Dich sicher freuen, wie ich Dich kenne.

Sollten die Leser, Deiner Ansicht nach jetzt ihre Goldminenaktien verkaufen, oder siehst Du eher Kaufmöglichkeiten.

Oder hast Du wie immer keine konkrete Meinung dazu?


Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Wie sieht es zur Zeit bei JPM in der Personalabteilung aus. Stellen die, neben Dir noch weitere Leute ein?
Avatar
21.10.02 18:30:41
Beitrag Nr. 2.551 ()
Die Verschwörung kauft heute DAX und DOW und schickt das Gold weiter nach unten.
Böse Verschwörung.
Avatar
21.10.02 18:43:38
Beitrag Nr. 2.552 ()
Früher stiegen die Goldpreisnotierungen nach solchen Meldungen, und die Aktienkurse gaben nach!

Heute ist anscheinend das Gegenteil der Fall?

Wenn das so weiter geht, stösst sich vielleicht bald einmal der Ribaldcorello den Kopf, an einer gerade vorbei fliegenden Thai Airway Maschine an, wenn er aus Verzweiflung über die bald schon wieder steigenden Goldpreise, von einem Hochhaus springen sollte?


Gruss

ThaiGuru




http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 21.10.2002, MEZ 18:17

21. Oktober 2002 17:47

Mindestens sieben Tote und viele Verletzte bei Anschlag auf Bus

TEL AVIV - Bei einem Anschlag auf einen Linienbus in Nordisrael sind nach Angaben des israelischen Fernsehens mindestens sieben Menschen getötet worden. Bis zu 30 Personen hätten zum Teil lebensgefährliche Verletzungen erlitten.


Nach Angaben der Polizei hatten Unbekannte nahe dem Ort Pardes Channah ein mit Sprengstoff beladenes Auto an den Bus herangefahren und die Explosion ausgelöst.

Das Fahrzeug geriet durch die «extrem schwere Explosion» in Brand. Der Bus der Linie 884 war auf dem Weg von Kiriat Schmona an der libanesischen Grenze nach Tel Aviv. 211745 oct


SDA-ATS
Avatar
21.10.02 18:46:23
Beitrag Nr. 2.553 ()
@thai

Diese Meldungen gehören inzwischen leider zum Alltag.

Das kratzt kein Schwein mehr.
Avatar
21.10.02 18:47:52
Beitrag Nr. 2.554 ()


http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Montag 21.10.2002, MEZ 18:37

21. Oktober 2002 14:23

US-Behörden planen Zivilklage gegen Credit Suisse First Boston

NEW YORK - Die Wertschriften-Aufsicht des US-Bundesstaates Massachusetts plant eine Zivilklage wegen Betrugs gegen die Investmentbank Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB). Die Klage von William Galvin könnte bereits am Montag eingereicht werden.


Dies heisst es in den Online-Ausgaben des «Wall Street Journal» und von «USA Today». Bei CSFB, einer Tochtergesellschaft des Finanzkonzerns CS Group, war niemand für eine Stellungnahme verfügbar.

Galvin führt die Untersuchung gegen CSFB im Auftrag einer Koalition von 42 Staaten-Wertschriften-Aufsichten. Im vergangenen Monat beantragte er beim New Yorker Staatsanwalt Eliot Spitzer die Durchführung einer Strafuntersuchung wegen Analysten-Praktiken bei CSFB. Die Behörden untersuchen angebliche Interessenkonflikte zwischen der Aktienanalyse und dem übrigen Bankgeschäft. 211421 oct


SDA-ATS
Avatar
21.10.02 18:48:54
Beitrag Nr. 2.555 ()
Du meinst, weil du nicht nachweisen kannst, was du seit Monaten den Board-Mitgliedern über JPM weismachen willst, stellt JPM mich ein?

Sag mal, wie krank muß man eigentlich sein, um so eine krude Logik nicht nur zu denken, sondern auch noch zu posten?
Avatar
21.10.02 19:07:46
Beitrag Nr. 2.556 ()
#2530

und wenn (!) Sie stiegen waren sie gleich wieder runter.
Aber das war dann wieder die "Verschwörung" ??
Avatar
21.10.02 19:11:21
Beitrag Nr. 2.557 ()
Wurden die Aktieninvestoren wieder einmal mehr für blöd verkauft, und angelogen?

Das war doch eher schon ein versuchter Betrug an den Anlegern, um die geplante Kapitalerhöhung von 1200 Millionen Franken, durch geschönte Zahlen, vorteilhafter für die Rentenanstalt/Swiss Live abzuwickeln?

Scheinheiliger geht`s wohl nicht?


Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=160

Montag 21.10.2002, MEZ 18:47

Buchführungs-Fehler: Höherer Halbjahresverlust!

Die Rentenanstalt/Swiss Life hat sich erneut einen peinlichen Buchführungs-Fehler geleistet. Dadurch steigt der diesjährige Halbjahresverlust um fast 200 Millionen auf 578 Mio. Franken.

Konzernführung und Börse zeigten sich verärgert.


Ob der Fehler personelle Konsequenzen hat, ist noch unklar. (Keystone Archive)

Der Schweizer Versicherer Rentenanstalt hat innerhalb eines Monats zum zweiten Mal einen Fehler in der Rechnungslegung festgestellt und das Halbjahresergebnis des Konzerns deutlich nach unten korrigieren müssen.

Verwaltungsratspräsident Andres F. Leuenberger sprach an einer Telefon-Pressekonferenz von "einem ausserordentlich ärgerlichen Fehler".


Im Wesentlichen geht es gemäss dem seit vergangenem August amtierenden Finanzchef Bruno Pfister um die fehlerhafte Ermittlung einzelner Valoren-Werte durch das Anfang Jahr eingeführte Informatiksystem bei der Rückzahlung einer Obligationenanleihe. Eine automatische Korrekturbuchung wurde jedoch bei einer weiteren, manuellen Korrektur wieder eliminiert.

Ausserordentliche Revision

Die Korrektur des Fehlers verminderte den Saldo der realisierten und buchmässigen Gewinne und Verluste in der IAS-Halbjahresrechnung um 254 Millionen Franken. Dadurch stieg der Halbjahresverlust nach Steuern um 192 Millionen auf 578 Mio. Franken.


Der Fehler wurde bei einer ausserordentlichen Revision mit Blick auf die geplante Kapitalerhöhung durch die Kontrollstelle der Rentenanstalt, PricewaterhouseCoopers, entdeckt. Das Ausmass stand laut Leuenberger erst am (gestrigen) Sonntag fest.

Vertrauensverlust

"Das ist schrecklich", erklarte ein Analyst einer Schweizer Bank. "Das ist das zweite Mal in Folge. Und das erhöht das Vertrauen in ihre Rechnungslegung nicht", sagte ein anderer Experte.

Das erneute Eingestehen eines Fehlers in der Rechnungslegung trifft die Rentenanstalt zu einem ungünstigen Zeitpunkt. Das Unternehmen steht kurz vor einer Kapitalerhöhung, die dem eigenkapitalgeschwächten Unternehmen Mittel von bis zu 1,2 Mrd. Franken zuführen soll.
(Anscheinend wird da, jetzt noch Mitleid mit Swisslife empfunden?TG)

Diese Pläne wurden von dem Restatement nicht berührt, hiess es bei der Rentenanstalt weiter. Die Revision habe keinen Einfluss auf das Eigenkapital oder die Vermögenslage. Auf die Tendenz für das Gesamtjahr werde der Fehler ebenfalls keine Auswirkungen haben, erklärte Rentenanstalt-Chef Roland Chlapowski.

Laut Leuenberger sollen solche Fehler künftig nicht mehr vorkommen. "Die nötigen Sofortmassnahmen wurden getroffen", sagte er. Das Team von Finanzchef Pfister und die Kontrollen würden verstärkt, der Halbjahresabschluss künftig geprüft.

Leuenberger liess personelle oder gar persönliche Konsequenzen offen. "Wir hatten noch keine Zeit, darüber nachzudenken", sagte er.

Die Panne wurde dem Bundesamt für Privatversicherungen gemeldet. Die Schweizer Börse SWX ergriff wegen des neuen Fehlers vorerst keine Massnahmen gegen die Rentenanstalt, wie ein SWX-Sprecher sagte.

An der Börse stürzte der Rentenanstalt-Kurs gegenüber Freitagabend zeitweise um fast 13 Prozent ab.

swissinfo und Agenturen
Avatar
21.10.02 19:25:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.558 ()
Man kann sich *Imoen*s Meinung nur anschließen,*ThaiGuru* trägt mal wieder alles zusammen was man nur irgendwie mit Gold in Verbindung bringen kann.

Der Müllberg wächst und wächst und wächst. :laugh:

Wardriver :cool:

Nichts für ungut Thai,mach nur so weiter. :D
Avatar
21.10.02 19:35:27
Beitrag Nr. 2.559 ()
#2535

Schon wieder eine neue Verschwörung ??
Avatar
21.10.02 20:15:25
Beitrag Nr. 2.560 ()
@Granitpiss

Welche Verschwörung meinst Du denn?
Avatar
21.10.02 20:44:42
Beitrag Nr. 2.561 ()
@Granitbiss:

Sag mal, warum liest Du eigentlich die Meldungen von Thai Guru? Würde mich an Deiner Stelle gar nicht interessieren.
Zwar hast Du selbst kaum was zu bieten, dass würde ich aber nicht ständig auch noch offenlegen.
Avatar
21.10.02 21:05:36
Beitrag Nr. 2.562 ()


http://www.bernama.com.my/B2002/news_business.shtml?business…

Business : News

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 21 , 2002 23:14PM

M`sia Urge OIC Member Countries To Use Gold Dinar

From Othman Haji Shafie

OUAGADOUGOU (BURKINA FASO), Oct 21 (Bernama) -- Malaysia hopes that the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) members and others will use Gold Dinar in future trade transactions in order to enhance economic and trade relationships among themselves.


This will be among the issues to be raised during the two-day 27th annual meeting of the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) beginning here tomorrow, said Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Shafie Mohd Salleh.

Dr Shafie, who is heading a five-member delegation to the annual meeting, said Malaysia would impress upon the delegates that using Gold Dinar as an alternative means of transactions would strengthen them and shield them from the uncertainties of using the US dollar which is unstable of late due to the current development in the global economy and security.

"We will entice Islamic countries to accept the concept of trading using Gold Dinar to facilitate and to enhance trade among Islamic countries as well as other trading partners, as we can no longer rely on the unstable dollar compared with other currencies in use presently," he told Bernama.


With that, Malaysia hoped that initially Gold Dinar would be used as a bilateral payment arrangement (BPA), and ultimately the BPA would be expanded as a multi-lateral payment arrangement with other participating Islamic countries as well as other trading partners, he added.

As the usage of Gold Dinar would become a normal practice, the poorer Islamic countries seeking aids and support from the IDB would gain the confidence of the Islamic funding and assistance institution, he said.

Dr Shafie also said Malaysia would urge Muslim countries to look at Malaysia as their new trading destination in investments, especially in view that more and more tourists from West Asia are visiting Malaysia.

He said this would augur well for more investments from the Middle East as well as other Muslim countries.


On another note, he said Malaysia`s stand on the Palestinian issue would also be submitted during the plenary sessions at the annual meeting where Malaysia expects to call on the international community to exert pressure on Israel to halt all military actions and withdraw fully from the occupied Palestinian territory.

He added that this was important as trade could only be intensified when there was global peace in all region following the Sept 11 2001 attacks on the US. The event had brought a threat to Islamic countries` assets being frozen as the US accused them of being supportive towards such terrible acts.

Malaysia, condemning military aggressions and violations of human rights and international humanitarian laws, has reiterated that lasting peace in the West Asia was only possible if Israel withdrew completely from all Palestine and other Israeli-occupied lands since 1967.

"Malaysia is fully supportive of the idea to allow the UN Protection Force to enter the disputed areas in the occupied Palestinian territories and provide security for both Palestinians and Israelis alike," Dr Shafie said.

Fifty-four IDB member countries are participating in the two-day meeting to be held at the Ouaga 2000 Centre here.

The Secretary of the Financial Division of the Finance Ministry Haji Ahmad Haji Hashim is among the Malaysian delegates to the event, while Bank Industri Malaysia and Bank Pembangunan dan Infrastruktur Malaysia Bhd are acting observers. -- BERNAMA
Avatar
21.10.02 23:54:57
Beitrag Nr. 2.563 ()


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2345467.stm

Monday, 21 October, 2002, 07:14 GMT 08:14 UK

HK bankruptcies at record levels

Hong Kong`s economy is struggle to beat recession




Personal bankruptcies in Hong Kong have reached record levels as it struggles to come out of its second recession in four years.

More than 17,000 people declared bankruptcy in the first nine months of 2002, nearly three times as many as the same period last year.

The Official Receiver`s Office said there were 17,427 cases in January-September, up from 5,963 cases in the year-ago period, with 2,580 in September alone.


Unemployment figures on Monday offered little comfort, despite falling for the first time in 20 months to 7.6% in August, they remain near record levels.

Borrowed time

Hong Kong lenders have reported lower profits in the first half of the year after they had to up their provisions for bankruptcies.

Banks have blamed the government for the sharp rise after it change the bankruptcy laws in 1998 to allow individuals to borrow again after four years instead of the previous eight.

Before the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, there were typically a few hundred bankruptcies per year.

Despite mounting defaults, lenders are still aggressively pushing credit cards which remain highly profitable even though write-offs jumped 47% in the second quarter to HK$2.06bn versus the previous quarter.

At the end of June, 9.5 million credit cards were in circulation among the population of 6.8 million.
Avatar
22.10.02 00:09:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.564 ()


http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/21/1034561445916.html

China fears urban bust

October 22 2002

Real estate lending is increasing too fast in some parts of China and property developers are building too many homes and offices to meet demand, according to China`s central bank.

Apartment and office building is surging in large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. In the first nine months, private and state-owned developers poured 486.3 billion yuan ($106.5 billion) into new real estate projects.


The People`s Bank of China will work to "prevent duplication in construction and closely monitor the problem of overheating investment in the real estate industry in some regions," its Monetary Policy Committee said in a report.

The Minister of Construction, Wang Guangtao, said in July that some areas of China faced a real estate market "bubble".

China`s property boom had spurred a rush of projects in the Beijing area that "may result in an oversupply of real estate" and "stagnating" prices and income for developers, property developer Soho China Ltd said in a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Avatar
22.10.02 00:37:38
Beitrag Nr. 2.565 ()
CNN schreibt von einem Blutbad!

Sehr unruhige Zeiten.

Gold kann da eigentlich nur beruhigen


Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/18/news/economy/bond_danger/ind…

Bond bloodbath: more to come?

After sudden, sizeable selloff, the haven of Treasury bonds looks much less safe to weary investors.

October 21, 2002: 12:24 PM EDT

By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Just days after a bond fund was recognized as the world`s largest mutual fund, U.S. Treasury bonds on Monday extended a brutal selloff that could throw into doubt the "safety" of this traditional safe harbor -- and cause trouble for the U.S. economy.

Bond prices have soared this year, a symptom of investor anxiety about a recession that began in March 2001, the risk of further terror attacks and war in Iraq and a traumatic plunge in U.S. stock prices, among other horrors. Meanwhile, bond yields, which move opposite to their price, have fallen precipitously, helping keep interest rates low.

But, suddenly and dramatically, the bottom has fallen out of bond prices, pushing interest rates higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, for example, has risen more than half a percentage point from a 40-year low close of 3.56 percent set on Oct. 9.




"We`re seeing a bubble bursting in the bond market," said bond market strategist Jim Bianco of BiancoResearch.com. "It was way overdone; there was really no justification for bonds being at [such a low] yield."

This couldn`t come at a worse time for investors, who have been pumping money into bonds at a blistering pace. More than $14 billion flowed into bond funds in September, according to fund tracker Lipper, and TrimTabs.com estimates that $13 billion more will go into bond funds in October.


Meanwhile, Pimco, the vehicle of guru-of-the-moment Bill Gross, said last week that its Total Return bond fund swelled to $64.6 billion by the end of September, edging the Vanguard 500 Index for the title of king of the mutual-fund hill.

"The people who are going to really get snapped in two here are those who were the last ones out of the equity markets, when the Dow Jones industrial average was in the mid-7,000s, and finally got into fixed-income funds when Treasury yields were [a half-percentage-point] lower," said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. "They took big losses, and then went into another asset that`ll give them more losses."

Everywhere you look, investors seem to be fleeing for greener pastures:


The Standard & Poors 500 index has gained nearly 14 percent since its Oct. 9 close;

Calpers, the biggest U.S. pension fund, said last week it was putting more money in equities and real estate; and

Even Pimco`s Gross said last week that the rally in Treasurys was likely over and that Pimco was turning to European government bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and other issues.

"When risk aversion is declining, money will flow out of the safe-haven Treasury market into riskier assets," said bond market strategist Anthony Crescenzi of Miller Tabak & Co. "High-yield bonds have increased in price in the past week; holders of junk bonds are doing well right now."

Crescenzi was not entirely convinced, however, that the bond-market bloodbath would go on or that the recent blistering pace of bond-yield gains would continue for much longer.

"For yields to rise further would probably require a firming in economic statistics and/or a further sharp upward gain in equities," Crescenzi said. "Both seem somewhat improbable right now, particularly because of geopolitical factors [such as] an increasing degree of terror activity, the unresolved situation with Iraq and problems in North Korea."

For the economy`s sake, it would be better if Crescenzi were right, since rising bond yields take other interest rates higher, including mortgage rates.

The broader U.S. economy has been supported this year by relentless consumer spending, which itself has been partially supported by low mortgage rates that sparked a glut of refinancing, putting more money in homeowners` pockets every month and letting them turn rising home equity into cash.

"The sharp rise in mortgage rates that is now under way threatens to limit the refinancing boom, limiting the cash that will be dropped into U.S. consumers` hands during the critical holiday-shopping season," said Rory Robertson, interest rate strategist at Macquarie Equities (USA).

For now, most economists doubt the gain in bond yields will be so dramatic as to smother the struggling U.S. economy. Even after the recent gains, 10-year yields are still more than a full percentage point lower than they were in May.

Merrill Lynch issued a note Friday that said bond yields seemed just about right and that it was actually increasing its position in mid-range Treasurys.

"The Treasury curve is much more reasonably priced for the mixed [economic] signals that are likely to continue for some time to come," Merrill fixed-income strategists Kenneth Hackel and Rajiv Setia wrote.
Avatar
22.10.02 03:19:48
Beitrag Nr. 2.566 ()
@proFEiT

Der Silberverbrauch der Photoindustrie steigt trotz, oder sogar nicht zuletzt wegen der Digitalphotographie ständig weiter an. So ca. mit einer 10%igen Verbrauchszunahme pro Jahr. Diese Angaben stammen von der Firma Kodak, die diese Zunahme auch weiterhin für die nächsten Jahre als gegeben ansieht!

Habe schon in früheren Postings darüber berichtet. Da sich aber immer wieder neue Leser im Goldboard, über die Digital Photographie informieren wollen, die angeblich mitschuldig an den tiefen Silberpreisen sein soll, auf ein Neues.


Habe erst kürzlich wieder von eigenen Digitalaufnahmen Photoabzüge im Labor machen lassen.

Zum einen war das ein recht teures Unterfangen, und zum andern verbrauchte das Photolabor dabei bei der Entwicklung selbstverständlich Silber!

Falls die digitalen Fotos nur ausgedruckt werden, dann entfällt natürlich der Silberverbrauch. Vielfach werden aber auch zuerst Printer Ausdrucke, und später dann doch noch Fotoabzüge von digitalen Aufnahmen gemacht.

Es ist in der Praxis heute so, dass immer mehr Leute eine digitale Kamera benutzen, die noch gar keinen Computer besitzen, oder mit den Programmen die zur Verwaltung, und zum Ausdrucken auf dem eigenen Printer benötigen, ganz einfach überfordert sind, sodass sie der Einfachheit wegen, ihre Digital-Kamera-Speicher-Medien in ein dafür eingerichtetes Labor einsenden, oder selbst vorbei bringen, um ganz normale Photopapier Abzüge machen zu lassen, oder allenfalls auch direkt über das Internet, normale Photoabzüge auf Fotopapier bestellen.

Z.Bsp. hier:http://www.mediumts.com/link/digital/digitale_bilddienste.ht…
oder:
http://www.primuspixel.de/?vcode=XAFFILI&ref=6771&affmt=b1&a…

Falls Dich das Recycling von Silberhaltigen Abfällen von Fotolabors näher interessiert, kannst Du vielleicht hier fündig werden:

http://dc2.uni-bielefeld.de/dc2/foto/rec.html

oder hier:

http://www.kodak.com/country/DE/de/corp/environment/kes/faq/…

Sollte Dir der "Granitpisser", zufälligerweise verkommen, informiere ihn bitte auch, damit dieser Nichtswisser, und Schwätzer seinen Horizont ein wenig aufhellen kann.


Gruss

Thaiguru
Avatar
22.10.02 04:01:55
Beitrag Nr. 2.567 ()
The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.80, PM $3.13, with world gold at $313.60 and $313.30. Very high: very ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a (rare) upbeat story on the Indian trade today:

"BOMBAY, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Gold imports from India, the world`s largest consumer of the precious metal, are likely to rise this week as global prices have fallen and festive buying has increased, traders said on Monday …"More and more people, including those who had earlier suspended buying due to firm prices, are now purchasing gold jewellery ahead of the peak festival season," said Nayan Pansare, a senior official of gold trading firm Inter Gold Ltd".


India reported a record Foreign Exchange Reserve volume on Saturday: $69.93 billion. If gold continues to be held down, this is likely to be a banner quarter for Indian imports, contrary to conventional wisdom.

Other physical markets have also responded well to lower prices. The Istanbul Gold Exchange Weekly report says trading volume moved up a further 20% after a 250% increase last week, and imports jumped 245% to 4.9 tonnes, 91% above the YTD average.

Japan, however, remains unenthusiastic. A sharp gold/yen price gain on the TOCOM open, caused partly by a further softening of the yen, drew in no support from the public. Subsequently the yen strengthened over 1 yen. Only 18,728 Comex-equivalent contracts traded, open interest was almost precisely unchanged, and the $US price of gold edged up only 80 cents. (NY traded 21,295 lots on Friday: open interest fell another 1521 contracts.)

With, as Standard London says of Friday’s NY action, "excellent physical demand supporting the market" – so much so that trigger the inevitable "selling from one US name capped the market" situation (UBS Warburg), and a dramatic reduction of the net spec long position,( by 36% to last Tuesday, and lower by now), gold might have been thought fairly safe today. Instead another push down has developed, quite limited in power (8,500 Comex lots by 12 am) and quite possibly motivated by the "Long US equities=Short gold" view circulating in America. Inspection of the physical markets suggest this is likely to mistaken.

As an antidote to complacency/Wall Street triumphalism, John Dizard’s Friday FT column on the Corporate bond market is essential reading:

"Last week the corporate bond market recalled scenes from Saigon at the end of the Vietnam war....Ford bonds were considerably cheaper than, say, those of the Russian Federation. Russia, you will recall, put the world financial system at risk with its August 1998 defaults….David Goldman, head of fixed-income research for BankAmerica Securities, calculates that "at current spreads [of interest rates to Treasury bonds], a portfolio of investment grade debt would break even with 10-year Treasury notes even if there were a default rate in excess of 40 per cent over the 10 years". That has never come close to happening, even in the 1930s."

"Now you may think that while this meltdown might be…of no more interest to most people than a jack-knifed trailer on the side of the highway. But this would be a mistake…customers for tech-intensive capital goods must, in many cases, finance their purchases. No bond market means less demand and a lower stock price.

In general terms, the longer term growth of the economy requires a revival in capital spending….high interest rate spreads on corporate paper will keep capital expenditure low at least into the second quarter of next year. That means less economic growth, lower profits and fewer jobs."

Japan is not alone in having problems!


JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
22.10.02 09:05:34
Beitrag Nr. 2.568 ()
@Der große THAIGURU

wieder seine täglichen niveaulosen Beschimpfungen.

::

Sollte Dir der "Granitpisser", zufälligerweise verkommen, informiere ihn bitte auch, damit dieser Nichtswisser, und Schwätzer seinen Horizont ein wenig aufhellen kann.


Gruss

Thaiguru
Avatar
22.10.02 09:29:18
Beitrag Nr. 2.569 ()
Hallo Thai
AusD einem Postimg :


Thai: Falls die digitalen Fotos nur ausgedruckt werden, dann entfällt natürlich der Silberverbrauch.


Thai:
Vielfach werden aber auch zuerst Printer Ausdrucke,

(Printerausdrucke sind auch Drucke, sagt das Wort schon, wenn Du lesen kannst - also ohne Silber-)

Thai:und später dann doch noch Fotoabzüge von digitalen Aufnahmen gemacht.

(Wie machst Du Fotoabzüge von digitalen Aufnahmen - es existiert ja kein Negativ ???????)


Und wenn Du wirklich gelegentlich mal denkst :

Wenn durch die digitale Fotographie deutlicher weniger Silber verbraucht würde, käme es damit kurzfristig zu einer "Enthortung" von Silber aus der Fotoindustrie.
Avatar
22.10.02 15:12:06
Beitrag Nr. 2.570 ()
@Thai

danke für die Infos, ich selbst bringe meine Digitalfotos ins Labor, weil es mir viel zu umständlich ist, die auf dem PC auszudrucken...
Ich will nur wissen ob, wenn ich normale Abzüge mache(es also keinen Unterschied zwischen analogen fertigen Fotos und digitalen fertigen Fotos gibt), Silber verbraucht wird.


"sodass sie der Einfachheit wegen, ihre Digital-Kamera-Speicher-Medien in ein dafür eingerichtetes Labor einsenden, oder selbst vorbei bringen, um ganz normale Photopapier Abzüge machen zu lassen, oder allenfalls auch direkt über das Internet, normale Photoabzüge auf Fotopapier bestellen."
-wenn es so ist wie du beschreibst, dass die angesprochenen Photopapierabzüge(Silber) für den normalen Fotografen gebraucht werden, bin ich noch zuversichtlicher gegenüber Silber;)

Von Negativen etc. ist keine Rede, da ich auch kein Profifotograf bin der evt. Filmabzüge mit hoher Körnung oder große Aufnahmen benötigt...


"Habe schon in früheren Postings darüber berichtet. Da sich aber immer wieder neue Leser im Goldboard, über die Digital Photographie informieren wollen, die angeblich mitschuldig an den tiefen Silberpreisen sein soll, auf ein Neues."

so neu bin ich nicht;), unter meiner alten 2.ID "WarumBuffett" kannst du meine zusammengetragenen proSilber-Beiträge lesen;)



Fazit: ich möchte keine Printerauszüge(wer weiss wie die aussehen:eek:) und der normale Kunde wird wohl im Fotolabor auch keine Printauszüge verlangen, wenn er davon keine Ahnung hat. Der Fotohändler wird dann auf jeden Fall die teurere Variante wählen:D


MfG pF
Avatar
22.10.02 17:34:09
Beitrag Nr. 2.571 ()
@proFEiT

Mit neuer Leser habe ich sicher nicht Dich gemeint, sondern diejenigen, die das Goldboard erst seit kurzer Zeit besuchen. Deine unter WarumBuffett kenne ich selbstverstaendlich auch, und finde sie sehr zutreffend.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

Anscheinend ist Dir der "Granitpiss" bereits verkommen, danke Dir fuer die Muehe. Doch verstanden hat er halt immer noch nichts von Digital Fotographie, und dem damit verbundenen Silberverbrauch, bei der Entwicklung von normalen Fotopapier Abzuegen.
Avatar
22.10.02 17:47:57
Beitrag Nr. 2.572 ()
Leider ist es mir zur Zeit, wegen schwerwiegenden technischen Gruenden, nicht moeglich weitere Postings einzustellen.

Schreibe zur Zeit aus einem der vielen Internet Cafes hier in Thailand. Morgen vielleicht, nur die wichtigsten Meldungen zum Goldpreis Geschehen?

Ab Donnerstag sollten die Probleme endlich behoben sein?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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22.10.02 17:54:47
Beitrag Nr. 2.573 ()
Press Release Source: Hecla Mining Company


Hecla to Participate in the Chicago Natural Resource and Technology Conference and Exhibition
Tuesday October 22, 8:03 am ET


COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 22, 2002--Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL & HL-PrB) will be participating in the Chicago Natural Resource and Technology Conference and Exhibition this Saturday, October 26, at the Holiday Inn Rolling Meadows.
Hecla Chairman and CEO Arthur Brown will give a presentation to a group of analysts and fund managers at approximately 10:10 a.m. Central time (11:10 a.m. Eastern) on Saturday, October 26, 2002. The presentation is expected to last about 20 minutes.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 111-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality silver and gold producer. Hecla`s common and preferred shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols HL and HL-PrB.

Hecla`s Home Page can be accessed on the Internet at: http://www.hecla-mining.com



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22.10.02 17:57:04
Beitrag Nr. 2.574 ()
Press Release Source: Hecla Mining Co.


Hecla Director Steps Down
Monday October 21, 5:01 pm ET


COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 2002--Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL - News; NYSE:HL-PrB) today announced that David Christensen, a director at Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) in Toronto, has resigned his position as a board member of Hecla.
Christensen stepped down from his position on the board to avoid any appearance of potential conflict of interest resulting from his research analyst position with CSFB. He took the position with CSFB subsequent to his election to Hecla`s Board of Directors in May 2002.

Christensen said, "I deeply regret the necessity of resigning from Hecla`s board, but in today`s corporate governance climate, it is the most prudent thing to do. I`ve greatly enjoyed working with the people at Hecla and had hoped to be able to contribute to the continued success of the company." Hecla Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Arthur Brown said, "I`m very sorry to lose David as a board member. I think he would have continued to be an excellent director, but I understand the conflict with his current situation, and concur with his decision in light of heightened sensitivity in the marketplace."

Christensen was one of two directors elected by Hecla`s Preferred B shareholders last May. His resignation is effective immediately. Hecla is reviewing the options and procedures relating to a vacancy of a preferred directorship. Hecla`s board of directors now has eight members, most with long experience in the mining industry or other natural resource industries.

Hecla Mining Company, headquartered in Coeur d`Alene, Idaho, mines and processes silver and gold in the United States, Venezuela and Mexico. A 111-year-old company, Hecla has long been well known in the mining world and financial markets as a quality silver and gold producer. Hecla`s common and preferred shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols HL and HL-PrB.

http://www.businesswire.com/cnn/hl.shtml



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Contact:
Hecla Mining Co.
Vicki J. Veltkamp, 208/769-4144
http://www.hecla-mining.com
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22.10.02 18:12:50
Beitrag Nr. 2.575 ()


http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=160

Dienstag 22.10.2002, MEZ 18:08

ABB-Aktie im freien Fall

swissinfo 22. Oktober 2002 09:38

Die ABB-Aktie stürzte um 57% auf den neuen Tiefstwert von 2,25 Franken ab. Der Technologie-Konzern hatte am Vorabend eine Gewinnwarnung abgegeben.



ABB wurde zudem durch zahlreiche Banken zurückgestuft und ist in den USA mit Asbest-Klagen konfrontiert.

Fakten

- Bedrohliche Zahlen:
- 1,5-Mrd.-Nettoverschuldung
- Semestergewinn-Einbruch im ersten Halbjahr 2002 im Vorjahresvergleich um 62% auf 101 Mio. Dollar
- Konzernumsatz-Senkung um 2% auf 10,9 Mrd. Dollar
- Auftragseingang schrumpfte um 6% auf 11,9 Mrd. Dollar
- Im zweiten Quartal 2002 Verlust von 13 Mio. Dollar

Händler verwiesen neben der Gewinnwarnung auf die inzwischen erfolgten zahlreichen Rückstufungen durch Banken. ABB hatte wegen der "anhaltenden Marktschwäche und zu bescheidenen Kosteneinsparungen" das Ertragsziel nach unten korrigiert. Der Konzern versicherte jedoch, wie angekündigt seine Nettoverschuldung bis zum Jahresende um 1,5 Mrd. Dollar zu senken.

Zudem teilte der ABB-Konzern am Montagabend weiter mit, dass die erwarteten Kosten für Asbest-Klagen in den USA gegen seine Tochtergesellschaft Combustion Engineering (CE) wahrscheinlich den Buchwert der CE-Aktien (30. September: 812 Mio. Dollar) überschreiten werden.

CE und die ABB-Gruppe erwägen laut Communiqué derzeit verschiedene Optionen zur Regelung der Asbest-Verbindlichkeiten, darunter auch eine mögliche Neuorganisation von CE gemäss Chapter 11 des US-Konkursrechts. Damit würde CE unter Gläubigerschutz gestellt, könnte aber weiterhin operativ tätig sein.

swissinfo und Agenturen
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22.10.02 18:13:48
Beitrag Nr. 2.576 ()
Mehrere Vorteile sprechen dafür Digitalbilder im Fotolabor entwickeln zu lassen. So ist die Qualität besser, die Fotos halten ewig (Tintenstrahlausdrucke zersetzen sich chemisch meist relativ schnell bzw. verblassen), die Fotos sind viel billiger als selbst ausgedruckte (-wegen der hohen Patronenpreise und dem erforderlichen teuren Fotodruckspezialpapier) ,und es ist über Internet sehr bequem Fotos ins Labor zu schicken und diese sich nach Hause senden zu lassen. Auch gegenüber der herkömmlichen Fotoentwicklung ist das Entwickeln der Digitalkamerabilder auf Fotopapier im Fotolabor eher billiger, da man keinen Film kaufen muß und für die Entwicklung nichts extra zu zahlen braucht. Diese Kosten werden seltsamerweise meist beim Vergleich klassische gegen digitale Fotografie vergessen.
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22.10.02 18:20:11
Beitrag Nr. 2.577 ()
hallo thaipisser

immer noch nicht begriffen, dass digitale Fotos ausgedruckt werden und kein übliches "lichtsensitives Fotopapier" verwendet wird.

Du bis schon eine komische Figur, selbst gegen einfachste Tatbestände anzustreiten, nur weil Du sie nicht durchschauen kannst.

ich suche noch nach dem Zusammenhang zwischen ABB und der Goldverschörung....

Das Hecla Announcement habe ich schon heute früh bei Hecla reingestellt.

Aber Du muß Dich ja mit vielen Kopien ausschmücken
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22.10.02 18:25:46
Beitrag Nr. 2.578 ()
hat die "Verschwörung" etwa thaipisser den "Strom" entzogen
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22.10.02 21:26:25
Beitrag Nr. 2.579 ()
was ist denn das für ein Ton hier.....können Sie nicht woanders dampf ablassen Herr Eisenbeiss.....
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22.10.02 21:37:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.580 ()
Editorial: Am Goldmarkt haben die Haussiers keine Chancen (22.10.2002)

Der Goldpreis verliert, in US-Dollar betrachtet, wieder an Terrain. Die Haussiers, die ihn zuletzt erneut in die Nähe seines zyklischen Hochs von 330 Dollar je Feinunze zu treiben versuchten, sind es, die jetzt die Rechnung zu bezahlen haben. Am Terminmarkt müssen sie bluten. Ob sie einsehen, dass sie wieder einmal einen untauglichen Versuch unternommen haben, ihre Vorstellungen durchzusetzen, ist zu bezweifeln.

Hier gilt wie an allen anderen Märkten, dass letztlich nur die physische Nachfrage darüber entscheidet, in welche Richtung sich ein Preis bewegt. Terminmärkte können zwar eine Weile ein Eigenleben führen und sich dabei weit von allen Realitäten entfernen, doch letzten Endes werden sie von den Kassamärkten immer wieder in die Wirklichkeit zurückgeholt.

Die Haussiers können in der gegenwärtigen Lage nur noch darauf setzen, dass der Dollar ausgeprägt schwach wird. Der Goldpreis verhält sich nämlich zum Dollar wie eine dritte Währung. Wer Gold dann in Euro abrechnet, wird rasch sehen, dass er nichts gewonnen hat. Tendiert der Dollar fest, können jene, die in Euro denken oder rechnen, auf der Gewinnerseite stehen. Doch was prozentual erlangt oder verloren werden kann, ist im physischen Geschäft derzeit minimal. Interessant wird es erst, wenn die Hebelwirkung des Terminmarktes genutzt wird. Dann werden aus Preisbewegungen von 5 Prozent je nach der Höhe des zu leistenden Einschusses sogleich Gewinne oder Verluste von 50 Prozent und mehr. Deshalb spielt denn auch die Musik nur am Terminmarkt für das Edelmetall.

Die Haussiers am Goldmarkt haben angesichts der weiterhin beachtlich hohen Verkäufe vor allem europäischer Zentralbanken und der darniederliegenden Investment-Nachfrage bis auf weiteres keine wirkliche Chance. Daher sind Prognosen von 400, 500 oder 1000 Dollar für die abschätzbare Zukunft reine Hirngespinnste. Nennenswert steigende Preise werden die Notenbankverkäufe eher noch zunehmen lassen.

Erst wenn die Investment-Nachfrage, also die der privaten Anleger, wieder kräftig auflebt, kann sich das Bild entscheidend wandeln. Doch daran ist aus mindestens zwei Gründen zu zweifeln: (1) Die Anleger haben gelernt, dass sie mit dem Kauf ausgewählter Goldminenaktien mehr gewinnen können als mit dem Erwerb physischen Goldes, und das auch noch mit einer beachtlichen Hebelwirkung, die diesen Aktien eigen ist. (2) In Phasen sinkender Inflation oder sogar eindeutiger Deflation fällt der Wert von Sachwerten, zu denen auch Gold zählt, obgleich sich seine ursprüngliche monetäre Komponente immer wieder einmal bemerkbar macht.

Und noch eines: Der Kauf von Gold hat letztlich nur Sinn, wenn man auf den Wert, den es verkörpert, angewiesen ist und an irgendeinem beliebigen Ort der Welt von ihm Gebrauch machen will. Es ist wie eine international anerkannte Währung. Doch solange die Papierwährungen nicht akut in Frage gestellt werden, lohnt es sich aus Kostengründen einfach nicht, das Edelmetall als Zahlungsmittel zu halten. Und dafür, dass die führenden Währungen dieser Welt und die in ihnen verkörperten Zahlungsversprechen der jeweiligen Notenbanken ersatzlos untergehen, gibt es derzeit trotz aller krisenhaften Erscheinungen an den Finanzmärkten keinerlei Hinweise. Im Gegenteil, die deflationären Tendenzen stärken wegen der von ihnen ausgelösten Vernichtung fauler Schulden den "inneren Wert" der bedeutenden Währungen, wenn auch in unterschiedlichem Maße.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
(Terminmarktwelt)
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22.10.02 21:40:39
Beitrag Nr. 2.581 ()
Kurz & Knapp: Rohstoffe (21.10.2002)

Der Weltverbrauch von Rohöl wächst 2003 nach Schätzung der Opec gegenüber dem laufenden Jahr von 76,46 Millionen Fass auf 77,22 Millionen Fass am Tag.

Rohöl in New York (WTI) kostet 2002 durchschnittlich 25 $ je Fass, schätzt Goldman Sachs.

Eine neue Goldbörse wird am 20. Oktober in Shanghai eröffnet. Mitglieder werden heimische Minen, Verarbeiter und Banken sein.

Die Exportquoten für Silber, die die Regierung in Peking an chinesische Händler vergeben hat, belaufen sich für 2002 inzwischen auf 2216 Tonnen. Für 2001 lagen sie bei 1180 Tonnen.


Aluminium kostet 2002 durchschnittlich 62 Cent und 2003 im Mittel 66 Cent je Pound, schätzt Goldman Sachs.

Die Kupferproduktion in China ist im September gegenüber dem gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum um 20 % auf 141 300 Tonnen gestiegen, wird aus Peking berichtet.

An den Weizenmärkten in den USA könnte aus charttechnischer Sicht ein vorübergehender Rückschlag bevorstehen, erklärt Refco.

Der Sommerweizen in der kanadischen Provinz Alberta soll nach amtlichen Angaben bis jetzt nur zu rund 60 % abgeerntet worden sein. Damit ist er nun jederzeit drohenden Wintereinbrüchen ausgesetzt. Normalerweise ist die Ernte zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits voll eingebracht.

Der Futtermittelbedarf in den USA nimmt deutlich ab, erklären Händler mit Hinweis auf den jüngsten amtlichen Rinderbestands- und Nachzuchtbericht.

Die Rohkakao-Vermahlungen in den USA sind im dritten Quartal gegenüber dem gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum um 12,75 % auf 100 046 Tonnen gesunken, teilte die US Chocolate Manufactureres Association mit.

Am Kakaomarkt beruht die gegenwärtige Schwäche im wesentlichen auf Liquidationen in Bedrängnis geratener Haussiers sowie verstärkten Baisse-Engagements der Spekulation, berichten Händler. Dies schaffe die technischen Voraussetzungen für die nächste Haussephase.

Zucker in New York dürfte von beständiger russischer Nachfrage und begrenzten brasilianischen Exporten zunächst weiter gestützt werden, erwartet Refco.
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22.10.02 21:48:00
Beitrag Nr. 2.582 ()
Hallo Granitscheisser,
es wäre ja unheimlich toll, wenn Du uns - statt Deinen
äzend-ermüdenden wie niveaulosen Hirndurchblutungsstörungen-
auch mal etwas "Brauchbares" anbieten könntest!!

Wenn nicht, dann suche Dir doch bitte - Deinem Intelekt-
gleichgestelltes Forum!!

Vielen Dank im Voraus!
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23.10.02 09:11:12
Beitrag Nr. 2.583 ()
hallo Sternchenscheisser

Besten Dank für Deinen netten Ton,
brauchtest Du bestimmt nicht einüben.
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23.10.02 09:46:47
Beitrag Nr. 2.584 ()
irgendwo im Dow-Board gefunden

Fazit: der Crash 87 wurd auch durch Computerverkaufsprogramme mit verursacht
vor dem Crash87 sind die Zinsen gestiegen.

im Jahr 2002 könnte der Derivatenhandel z.B. einen
Crash auslösen.
Ob da Computerprogramme das Unheil dann verzögern
oder nicht ist völlig egal.

Aber für die Optimisten und ich bin einer
gibt es keinen Crash
Es gibt seit ca. 15 Monaten die Treppen-Baisse
step by step geht es abwärts.
Wir sind erst einige Stufen vom hohen Krichturm
hinuntergestiegen.

Ich wollte die Aktienkurse nicht auf Kirchturmhöhe
aber Allan Greenspan hat sie mit seiner Zinspolitik
seit 1995 auf Kirchturmhöhe getrieben.




Die Lage ist heute schlechter als beim 87er Crash

22. Okt. 2002 Der 19. Oktober 1987 ging als „Schwarzer Montag“ in die Börsengeschichte ein. Innerhalb weniger Stunden verlor der Dow-Jones-Index an der Wall Street mehr als ein Fünftel (-20%) seines Wertes. Er stürzte von 2.247 auf 1.739 Punkte.

Der Einbruch war heftiger als im Oktober 1929, als auf den Börsenkrach eine weltweite Rezession folgte. Damals hatte der Dow 15 Prozent ( -15%) seines Werts verloren. Unternehmen gingen massenweise bankrott. In manchen Ländern kletterten die Arbeitslosenquoten bis auf 40 Prozent.

Im Jahr 1987 stürzten weltweit nur die Börsen ab. Durch neue Telekommunikationssysteme breitete sich der Crash in Windeseile aus. Doch die reale Wirtschaft wuchs danach weiter.

1987: rasanter Absturz und schnelle Erholung

Die neue Technik hatte den Absturz erst ausgelöst. Dabei sollten die Computerprogramme eigentlich Kursverluste begrenzen. Sobald eine Aktie unter einen bestimmten Kurs fiel, gaben die Maschinen automatisch den Auftrag zum Verkauf des Papiers.

Vor dem 19. Oktober 87 hatten sich einige Verkaufsorder im System aufgestaut. Sie alle wurden in kurzer Zeit ausgeführt, als am Morgen der Handel begann. Das drückte die Kurse unter die in den Programmen gespeicherten Schwellenwerte. Eine weiter Welle von Verkaufsaufträgen wurde ausgelöst, es entstand eine sich selbst verstärkende Spirale nach unten. Die Anleger flüchteten in Massen vom Parkett.

Auch deutsche und japanische Aktien verloren. Auf mittlere Sicht litt die deutsche Börse sogar mehr als der japanische oder US-Aktienmarkt. Denn der Nikkei und der Dow erholten sich bereits in den Tagen nach dem Absturz wieder von ihren Einbrüchen. Aber der Dax rutschte langsam immer weiter ab. Silvester 1987 war er fast 30 Prozent weniger wert als ein Jahr zuvor. Der Dow hatte immerhin ein Prozent an Wert zugelegt, der Nikkei sogar fast 15 Prozent. Der Dax brauchte 18 Monate, um sein altes Niveau wieder zu erreichen.

Heute: Strukturkrise...

Heute ist manches ähnlich und vieles anders. Vor fünfzehn Jahren befand sich die Wirtschaft in einer Periode sinkender Zinsen. Doch dann kam die Befürchtung auf, die Bundesbank würde zur Stabilisierung der Mark ihre Zinspolitik ändern. Hinzu kamen Spannungen in der Währungspolitik. Beides sorgte für Nervosität an den Märkten. Heute geben Irak-Krise und eine lahmende Konjunktur den Anlegern Anlaß zur Sorge.

Vor 15 Jahren hatte der Absturz kaum Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft. Heute sind Banken und Versicherungen enger mit der Börse verflochten. Sie haben hohe Summen in Aktien investiert, die Talfahrt der Kurse zieht sie mit in die Tiefe. „Das ganze Finanzsystem steckt in einer Strukturkrise. 1987 war der Kapitalbedarf der Wirtschaft nur kurzfristig unterbrochen. Heute ist die Finanzierung von Wachstum und Entwicklung langfristig nicht gesichert“, erklärt Detlev Hummel, Mitverfasser des Buches „Schwarzer Montag: Der Börsenkrach ´87“ und an der Uni Potsdam Professor für Betriebswirtschaftslehre mit dem Schwerpunkt Finanzierung und Banken. Das gelte für alle Einrichtungen des Finanzsektors, ob Aktienmarkt oder Geschäftsbanken. Wenn aber das Finanzsystem zu wenig Kapital bereitstellt, stockt die Konjunktur.

... und quälender Verfall der Kurse

Wie im Jahr 1987 sinken heute die Kurse. Aber statt rasant abzustürzen und sich schnell zu erholen, verfallen sie langsam und quälend. Ein Ende des Siechtums ist trotz der momentan laufenden Erholung noch nicht abzusehen, da diese Bewegung derzeit lediglich noch als Rally im Bärenmarkt einzustufen ist. „Es ist ein Niedergang auf Raten“, sagt Hummel.

In den Jahren vor 1987 sei der Börsenboom weit kürzer gewesen als in den Neunzigerjahren, so Hummel. „Man hat den Boom künstlich verlängert, teilweise mit kriminellen Mitteln wie falschen Aktienempfehlungen.“ Jetzt dauere auch die Talfahrt länger.

Marktinstitutionen verlängern die Talfahrt

In den 15 Jahren seit Oktober 1987 haben die Börsen Vorkehrungen getroffen, um einen ähnlich dramatischen Einbruch wie damals zu verhindern. An der Wall Street beispielsweise wird der so genannten „Uptick Downtick Rule“ zufolge der Handel automatisch ausgesetzt, wenn Kursbewegungen zu heftig sind (siehe Link).

Auch neue Finanzierungsinstrumente tragen heute dazu bei, Verluste zu begrenzen. Termingeschäfte, Optionen und Futures beispielsweise. In Deutschland sind solche Geschäfte erst seit der Börsenreform 1989 erlaubt. „Mit ihnen kann ein Anleger seine Positionen relativ lange absichern und findet auch bei fallenden Aktienkursen alternative Ertragsquellen“, erklärt Hummel. „Heute kann man eigentlich nur mit Derivaten Geld verdienen.“

Derivate können Verluste begrenzen, sie verlängern aber auch die Talfahrt der Börse, sagt Hummel. Wenn die Anleger ihr Geld in in Derivate stecken, fehlt dem Aktienmarkt möglicherweise das frische Kapital, das für eine Trendwende nötig ist. „1987 war das anders. Damals gab es nicht so viele Alternativen. Die Anleger mussten nach dem Krach quasi wieder in Aktien investieren.“ Das ist heute anders. Deshalb, und weil im Gegensatz zu 1987 auch die Realwirtschaft lahmt, ist ein Ende der Kursverluste kaum abzusehen.
(FAZNet)
Aus der FTD vom 23.10.2002 Kolumne: Gefahr für die Pensionsfonds Von Lucas ZeiseSchmeißt die Pensionsrückstellungen aus der Bilanz! Vor einem Jahr noch zogen die wegen des nachlassenden M&A-Booms nach Beschäftigung suchenden Investmentbanker mit dieser Parole durch deutsche Lande.Sie versuchten die Finanzchefs großer und ehrwürdiger Industriekonzerne davon zu überzeugen, dass die zugesagten Betriebsrenten ihrer Beschäftigten sich zu grässlichen Risiken entwickeln könnten, wenn sie, wie von alters her als Rückstellungen in der Bilanz in Deutschland üblich, mitgeschleppt würden. Schon vor einem Jahr hätten die Herren Investmentbanker wissen können, dass der von ihnen propagierte Ausweg alles nur noch schlimmer macht. Wie schlimm, das zeigt sich aktuell bei General Motors und Siemens. Die Münchner sahen sich genötigt, dem ausgegliederten Pensionsfonds neue Mittel zuzuführen. Denn schon im Juni wies der Fonds eine Unterdeckung von mehr als 5 Mrd. Euro auf, die bis Ende September bei fallenden Aktienkursen weiter gewachsen sein dürfte. Siemens kann sich den Zuschuss leisten. Dennoch wird die "Sonderdotierung" der hauseigenen Pensionsfonds, wie Finanzchef Hans-Joachim Neubürger den Zuschuss nannte, bei den Aktionären keine Begeisterung auslösen, wenn der Betrag am 13. November beziffert wird. Im Falle von GM hat die Unterdeckung der Pensionspläne die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s vor einer Woche dazu veranlasst, die Bewertung der GM-Anleihen um einen Grad auf nur noch BBB herabzustufen. Keine Pflicht zur Veröffentlichung Mit der Auslagerung der Pensionsansprüche ist Siemens in Deutschland eine im Sinne der Investmentbanker "fortschrittliche" Ausnahme. In den USA dagegen ist die Auslagerung gängige Praxis. Dort tun sich mit dem Verfall der Aktienkurse riesige Deckungslücken in den Pensionsplänen auf. Sie sind schwer zu schätzen, weil die Pläne ausgelagert sind und ihr Zustand daher nicht unter die komplette Veröffentlichungspflicht fällt. Trevor Harris von Morgan Stanley schätzt die Deckungslücke in den Pensionsfonds mit vereinbarter Rentenzusage bei allen im S&P 500 versammelten Unternehmen auf insgesamt etwa 300 Mrd. $ - ein hübsches Sümmchen. Wenn der Aktienmarkt sich nicht markant erholt, werden die Unternehmen solche Summen in den nächsten Jahren aus ihrem Cash Flow abzweigen müssen. Das zwingt zum Sparen und verhindert Investitionen, ein selbst tragender Aufschwung in der US-Wirtschaft bliebe zunächst aus. "Wenn der Finanzdruck anhält", analysiert der Kolumnist John Plender, "verzögert sich die Erholung bei den Unternehmen. Deflation wäre nicht mehr nur ein Risiko, sondern Realität." Man höre: Plender spricht nicht über das wachstumsschwache Deutschland, sondern über die USA. Das Problem der Unterdotierung der Fonds ist in Kontinentaleuropa relativ gering - eben weil Fondskonstruktionen wie die von Siemens hier selten sind. Die ausgegliederten Betriebsrentenfonds haben zurzeit zwei Probleme: Zum einen sind sie in der Regel mit Aktien vollgestopft. Damit verringert sich der Wert des Deckungsstocks in der Baisse. Zum anderen haben die Fondsmanager zumeist völlig überhöhte Renditeerwartungen in ihren Deckungsstock zu Grunde gelegt. Einer Studie von UBS Warburg zufolge rechnen 60 Prozent der S&P-500-Unternehmen mit einer Verzinsung ihrer Anlagen von jährlich neun bis zehn Prozent. Weitere 20 Prozent kalkulieren sogar mit mehr als zehn Prozent Wertsteigerung. Je höher die Rendite auf das angesammelte Kapital ist, desto weniger Kapital müssen die Manager zur Abdeckung der Pensionsansprüche vorhalten. Druck der Rating-Agenturen Der ob seines Konservatismus gerühmte Warren Buffett hat dem Pensionsplan seiner Berkshire Hathaway schon im vergangenen Jahr eine Senkung der erwarteten Rendite um 1,8 Punkte auf 6,5 Prozent verordnet. Unter dem Druck der Rating-Agenturen und Investoren nehmen auch andere Unternehmen die unrealistischen Erwartungen Stück für Stück zurück und lösen damit gewinnmindernde Nachschusspflichten aus. Dazu können sie sich nach US-Recht bis zu 18 Monate Zeit lassen. Obwohl der Verfall der Aktienkurse schon im Frühjahr 2000 begonnen hat, zwingt auch aus diesem Grund die gähnende Lücke in den Pensionsfonds erst jetzt zum Handeln. Ein anderer bestand darin, dass sich im Aktienboom zuvor Überschüsse angesammelt hatten. Vergleichsweise komfortabel ist dagegen die Lage der deutschen Unternehmen. Sie haben, von Siemens, DaimlerChrysler und wenigen anderen abgesehen, dem Werben der Investmentbanker widerstanden und an den Direktzusagen an ihre Betriebsangehörigen festgehalten. Sie bürgen selbst für die Pensionszusagen und bedürfen keines Deckungsstocks von Bonds oder gar Aktien. Im internationalen Schönheitswettbewerb angelsächsisch interpretierter Bilanzen sahen die Pensionsrückstellungen zwar schlecht aus, denn sie verlängerten die Bilanz und wurden als Schulden und Eigenkapitalschwäche interpretiert. Doch jetzt zeigt sich, dass es besser sein kann, diese dennoch in der Bilanz zu halten. Außerbilanzielle Schulden sind in der Zeit nach Enron wenig gefragt. Gut möglich, dass während der Aufräumarbeiten im amerikanischen Bilanzrecht auch die Pensionsverpflichtungen und ihre Defizite wieder in die Gewinn- oder Verlustrechnungen der US-Unternehmen wandern müssen.© 2002 Financial Times Deutschlandhttp://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/10350864084...l?nv=cd-divnews
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23.10.02 17:02:35
Beitrag Nr. 2.585 ()
Kurz & Knapp: Rohstoffe (22.10.2002)

Bei Gold kann es im Falle weiter anziehender Aktienkurse zu einer Liquidationswelle der mit schätzungsweise etwa 2,5 Millionen Feinunzen sehr hohen spekulativen Kaufpositionen kommen, in deren Verlauf die Marke von 307 $ je Unze getestet werden dürfte, meint SocGen.

Der Silberexport der USDA ist im August nach amtlichen Angaben gegenüber dem gleichen Vorjahreszeitraum von 23,61 Tonnen auf 109,6 Millionen Tonnen gestiegen.


Kupfer in London dürfte am Jahresende 1540 $ je Tonne (Basis Kassaware) kosten, schätzt Standard Bank.

Der Zinnmarkt steht weiterhin im Zeichen einer extremen Knappheit an Konzentraten, stellt SocGen fest. Sie mache sich mehr und mehr auch am physischen Markt für das Metall selbst bemerkbar.

Der Zinkverbrauch in der Welt steigt sowohl 2002 als auch 2003 nach Schätzung der Internationalen Studiengruppe für Blei und Zink um 3 bis 3,5 %.

Die Preise für Winterweizen in den USA könnten bis zum Spätsommer 2003 drastisch sinken, wenn sich der Flächenertrag der neuen Ernte auch nur nach dem Trend entwickelt, erklärt Refco.

Der Weizenbestand in Kanada sinkt 2002/03 (August/Juli) nach amtlicher Schätzung von 6,488 Millionen Tonnen auf 4,35 Millionen Tonnen.

Indischer Weizen dürfte trotz seiner geringen Qualität wegen seines vergleichsweise niedrigen Preises auch weiterhin den Markt in Südostasien überfluten, erwartet das USDA.

Bei Mais und Sojabohnen in den USA hinken die Erntearbeiten noch immer deutlich hinter dem zu diesem Zeitpunkt üblichen Stand zurück. Händler sehen daher die Gefahr von Frostschäden rasch zunehmen.

Bei Sojabohnen richtet sich die Aufmerksamkeit nun mehr und mehr auf die Witterungsbedingungen in den noch immer zu trockenen nördlichen Erzeugergebieten, erklären Händler in Chikago.

Der Vorrat an Raps (Canola) in Kanada wird 2002/03 (August/Juli) nach neuesten amtlich Berechnungen von 1,215 Millionen Tonnen auf 350 000 Tonnen schrumpfen.

Der Weltvorrat an Speiseölen hat Ende 2001/02 (Oktober/September) nur noch den Bedarf von 25 Tagen gedeckt, berichtet das USDA. Ende 2000/01 bestand noch ein Deckungsgrad von 36 Tagen.


(40)
Avatar
23.10.02 17:42:35
Beitrag Nr. 2.586 ()
"im Falle weiter anziehender Aktienkurse"

ich glaube dieses Risiko kann man eingehen ;)
Avatar
23.10.02 19:03:41
Beitrag Nr. 2.587 ()
Auf SAT1 läuft gerade eine Sendung zur kosmetischen Verjüngung.

Falten weg mit 24-karätigen Goldfäden, mit Platinfäden liesse sich der gleiche Effekt erreichen. (Die Fäden werden unter die Haut genäht.) Eine Behandlung ksoten zwischen 2000 und 3000 EUR. :D


Etwas zur Auflockerung.

Gruss Mic :)
Avatar
23.10.02 19:42:03
Beitrag Nr. 2.588 ()
2563 Danke !

Einige hier meinen, die USA
MÜSSEN JA NUN KAUFEN

UND NUN ?????????????

Thai wird es mit diversen Zeitungsartikeln richten
Avatar
23.10.02 20:42:44
Beitrag Nr. 2.589 ()
was willst Du uns damit sagen biss ?
Avatar
23.10.02 21:01:37
Beitrag Nr. 2.590 ()
@Gringo

So wie ich granitbiss in seiner "feinfühligen" ;) Ausdrucksweise verstanden habe, wollte er uns mitteilen, dass er dankbar für Posting #2563 war.

Desweiteren steht da ja geschrieben, dass es bei anziehendem Aktienmarkt nun zu Liquidation der sehr hohen spekulativen Kaufpositionen kommen könnte.

Deshalb wollte Hr. granitbiss uns eben nur warnen, dass der Goldpreis eben auf 307$ oder noch weiter nach unten gehen könnte und nun ja niemand mehr Bedarf hat nachzukaufen (insbesondere in Amerika, wenn die Indizes nun weiter steigen sollten).

Ich hoffe, ich habe diese knappen Statements richtig interpretiert. ;)

Gruss Mic :)
Avatar
23.10.02 22:51:53
Beitrag Nr. 2.591 ()
@mickyn & @all

Ich dachte wir könnten JEDES Posting von biss mit

"Was willst Du uns damit sagen biss ?" beantworten.

Wäre doch mal einen Versuch wert...

;)
Avatar
23.10.02 22:57:38
Beitrag Nr. 2.592 ()
@mickyn & @all

Ich dachte wir sollten ALLE Postings von Biss mit "was willst Du uns damit sagen biss ?" beantworten.

Vielleicht hilft es ja...

;)
Avatar
23.10.02 22:58:30
Beitrag Nr. 2.593 ()
@mickyn & @all

Ich dachte wir sollten ALLE Postings von Biss mit "was willst Du uns damit sagen biss ?" beantworten.

Vielleicht hilft es ja...

;)
Avatar
23.10.02 23:21:15
Beitrag Nr. 2.594 ()
sorry wollte nicht stottern, war der WO: Server
Avatar
24.10.02 15:59:12
Beitrag Nr. 2.595 ()
Kurz & Knapp: Rohstoffe (23.10.2002)

Palladium steht nachhaltig im Zeichen eines Überangebots und des Abbaus vorhandener Bestände, erklärt UBS Warburg.

Die Aluminiumbestände der LME sind nach wie vor zu einem großen Teil im Rahmen von Finanzgeschäften gebunden, stellt SocGen fest und erklärt unter anderem damit den angesichts der baisseträchtigen fundamentalen Lage beachtenswert widerstandsfähigen Preisverlauf.

Der Bleiverbrauch in der Welt sinkt im laufenden Jahr um 0,6 % und steigt im kommenden um 1,1 %, sagt die Internationale Studiengruppe für Blei und Zink voraus.

Kupfer und Nickel bieten aus fundamentaler Sicht das größte Potential für Preissteigerungen im kommenden Jahr, erklärt Standard Bank.

Der Zinkmarkt wird auch 2003 im Zeichen erheblicher Überschüsse stehen, sagt die Internationale Studiengruppe für Blei und Zink voraus.

Am Terminmarkt für Silber tritt immer wieder eine US-Geschäftsbank in beachtlichem Umfang auf der Käuferseite auf, berichten Händler aus New York.

Hartweizen scheint aus fundamentaler Sicht am ehesten in der Lage zu sein, seine Hausse bis ins neue Jahr hinein fortzusetzen, meint Refco.

Die Maisernte 2003 in Brasilien droht wegen erheblich verzögerter Anbauarbeiten hinter den Erwartungen zurückzubleiben, heißt es in Sao Paulo.

Bei Sojabohnen in Chikago endet die nach Abschluss der Erntearbeiten in den USA übliche festere Tendenz gewöhnlich Anfang Dezember, erklärt Refco. Dies könne auch diesmal wieder so sein, falls die Wuchsbedingungen für die neuen südamerikanischen Ernten dann günstig sein sollten.

Der Vorrat an Sojaöl erreicht Ende 2002/03 (Oktober/September) im Verhältnis zum geschätzten Verbrauch den niedrigsten Stand seit 1994/95, stellt Refco fest. Seinerzeit wurden in Chikago Höchstpreise um 30 Cent je Pound verzeichnet.

Der australische Baumwollexport sinkt 2002/03 nach Schätzung des USDA um 17 % auf 2,7 Millionen Ballen.

Die Kaffeeproduktion in Kenia dürfte 2001/02 (Oktober/September) nach Schätzung des Coffee Board dort von 51 632 Tonnen auf 60 000 Tonnen gestiegen sein.


[Terminmarktwelt]
Avatar
24.10.02 16:04:12
Beitrag Nr. 2.596 ()
Frage an Bluemoons;

Gibt es auch Termin-Kontrakte auf die (blaue) Agave(Tequila), auf Honig, auf Kartoffeln und weitere nicht von dir erwähnte Verbrauchs-/Rohstoffe?


Danke pF
Avatar
24.10.02 16:15:32
Beitrag Nr. 2.597 ()
@profeit

ich empfehle dir die Seite Terminmarktwelt zu besuchen
vielleicht findest du das gesuchte!

Gruß
Avatar
24.10.02 16:35:15
Beitrag Nr. 2.598 ()
wer könnte den diese us-bank sein ?????????????

DUF
Avatar
24.10.02 18:57:07
Beitrag Nr. 2.599 ()


http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/News.asp?artic…

Barrick on Target to Reduce Gold Hedge Program

24 Oct 02(10:08 AM) | E-mail Article to a Friend

TORONTO (Reuters) - Barrick Gold <ABX.TO> said on Thursday it was on target to reduce its hedge program, or gold forward sales, to 12 million ounces by the end of 2003.

The world`s second-largest gold miner told an analysts conference call it would reduce the program from 16.9 million ounces at the end of September 2002.

It also said it did not intend to cancel its arrangement with Noranda Inc`s Horne smelter which treats ore from Barrick`s Eskay Creek mine, despite the impact on earnings of a four-month strike at the copper facility in Quebec.

(Reuters Toronto newsroom +416-941-8101, toronto.newsroom@reuters.com)
Avatar
24.10.02 19:01:14
Beitrag Nr. 2.600 ()


http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/iwon-com/news-story.asp…

Barrick Gold`s net drops 42%


By Carolyn Pritchard, CBS MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 10:30 AM ET Oct 24, 2002

TORONTO (CBS.MW) -- Barrick Gold reported a 42 percent drop in third-quarter income as lower-than-anticipated grades and recovery rates resulted in lower production and higher costs.

The miner`s income for the period fell to $34 million, or 6 cents per share, compared with $59 million, or 11 cents per share, in the same quarter the year before.

Before non-hedge related adjustments, Toronto-based Barrick (ABX: news, board) reported earnings of $37 million, or 6 cents per share, compared with $62 million, or 12 cents per share, in the third quarter of 2001.


The results were in line with the consensus estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. Barrick lowered its earnings forecast for the period in late September.

Shares of the company were higher by 22 cents in early trading, at $14.82.

"A variety of unrelated operating issues from first half 2002 proved more stubborn than we`d expected and resulted in a disappointing quarter," said president and CEO Randall Oliphant in a company statement. "But we`ve got the issues in hand, we`ve got our focus on change, and we`ve got a plan in place to make changes happen."

Barrick said it remains committed to its recently-announced plans to add four mines over the next five years. The firm expects total new production of 2 million at an average cash cost of $125 per ounce over the first 10 years.

Barrick produced 1.78 million ounces of gold in the quarter at cash costs of $180 per ounce.

It reduced its hedge position by nearly 2 million ounces and said it expects to reduce its position further in the fourth quarter.

For the full year 2002, Barrick said it expects earnings before non-hedge related adjustments of between 33 cents and 35 cents per share. The company also said it expects to produce 5.7 million ounces of gold, at an average cash cost of $178 per ounce.

The forecasts are made on the basis of spot gold prices averaging $315 per ounce for the rest of the year.


Carolyn Pritchard is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.
Avatar
24.10.02 19:15:13
Beitrag Nr. 2.601 ()
http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimes/business/busi…

Daily Business news

DRD gold output rises

South African gold producer Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) on Thursday reported gold production for the September quarter of 228,270 ounces from 226,913 oz in the June quarter.

Headline earnings per share rose 47% to $7.8 million in the September quarter from pro forma $4.9 million in the June quarter while headline earnings per share increased by 39% to US 4.3 cents from pro forma US 2.7 cents.

The group said that the June figures were restated to reflect the sale of 60% of Crown Gold Recoveries (CGR).

DRD`s gold price received improved significantly from $284/oz to $315/oz, mainly as a result of all production being (un)hedged, chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) Mark Wellesley-Wood said.


Cash operating costs increased to $247/oz from $227/oz due mainly to annual wage increases, the roll-up towards the minimum wage at Blyvoor and Buffels and the impact of the Eskom winter tariff on the full quarter.

DRD recorded its profit of $8.1 million from the sale of CGR as an exceptional item.

Wellesley-Wood welcomed the clarity and certainty provided by the recently promulgated Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act as well as the associated mining charter.

The mining charter provides for 15% of equity in existing mining operations for historically disadvantaged people in five years and 26% in 10 years.

The target is 40% of employment equity in junior and senior levels in five years.

DRD`s transactions with Khumo Bathong Holdings (KBH), the most recent of which was the 40% owned CGR`s acquisition of East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM) for R90-million, put the company within easy striking distance of the black empowerment ownership target set by the charter, Wellesley-Wood said.

I-Net Bridge
Avatar
24.10.02 19:44:54
Beitrag Nr. 2.602 ()
Another gold derivatives problem crops up:

Newmont mining to restate 12 quarters of results

10/23/2002 9:39:14 AM

DENVER, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) (CA:NMC) , the world`s largest gold miner, on Wednesday said it would restate 12 quarters of earnings to correct the accounting of forward gold sales and purchase contracts dating back to 1999.

The company, based in Denver, said the correction comes after a review by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP of its accounting policies and would result in the restatement of its earnings from the third quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2002.


PricewaterhouseCoopers replaced Arthur Andersen LLP., the firm that has been embattled since last year`s collapse of Enron Corp., as the company`s accountant in May 2002.
The restatement will widen its loss for 1999, 2000 and 2001 by a total of about $6 million, the company said. For the first half of 2002, net income will be cut by about $500,000.

Following the review, Newmont said that it has concluded that the prepaid forward sales contract did not meet the technical criteria to be accounted for in the manner reflected in its financial statements.

-END-

It’s good that Arthur Andersen was canned or another gold truth would still be hidden from the investing public. Murky work Newmont.

www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
24.10.02 19:47:53
Beitrag Nr. 2.603 ()
KUALA LUMPUR (AFX-ASIA) - Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed is stepping up plans to use the gold dinar to trade with participating Islamic countries by proposing establishing a team to study the scheme.

Malaysia plans to use the gold dinar mechanism to facilitate financial settlements between participating Islamic nations in gold, while at the same time increasing trade among Islamic nations.

"I will propose to the Cabinet and if they agree, I will ask Bank Negara to establish a secretariat for the gold dinar (facility). Iran seems to be interested so we will contact them," Mahathir said at a press conference.

He added that Malaysia is still in the process of explaining the concept of using the gold dinar to other Islamic countries.

He said participating countries may have to revise their laws to comply with international financial regulations.

Mahathir said Malaysia is looking for Islamic countries with a strong financial and economic background as participants.

He added that the gold dinar will be valued according to the market price.

www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
24.10.02 19:52:42
Beitrag Nr. 2.604 ()
unsere herzallerliebsten Oberhedger...

Barrick Sees Its Share Of Hedging Market Declining

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021024/1049000622_1.html

VANCOUVER, October 24 (Dow Jones) -- Barrick Gold
Corp. expects its 15 to 20 percent share of the world`s
estimated 100-million-ounce gold hedging market will
drop as the company reduces ounces committed
under its hedges, Barrick chief financial officer Jamie
Sokalsky said Thursday.

On a conference call, Sokalsky said liquidity in the
hedging marketplace is down from several years ago,
but that reduction isn`t affecting Barrick`s ability to do
business with counterparties.

"We still see a reasonably robust market," Sokalsky
said, adding that there is less business going through
the market in general and the company considers this
factor when it does transactions.

Barrick is in the hedging market every second day,
on average, as it rolls over contracts, he said.

The company`s forward sales position was 16.9 million
ounces at the end of the third quarter, and it plans to
cut that position to 12 million ounces by the end of 2003.

The company`s variable price sales and call option
contracts totalled 2.2 million ounces at quarter-end,
with a target of 1.5 million ounces.

The mark-to-market value of Barrick`s gold contracts
was negative $301 million at the end of the quarter, at
a spot gold price of $324 an ounce, but the
mark-to-market value would approach zero, or
breakeven, at a gold price of $307 an ounce, the
company said.

Barrick surprised observers last month by warning
of reduced third-quarter earnings due to operational
problems at several mines. As reported, actual
earnings in the period were $34 million or 6 cents a
share, down from $59 million or 11 cents a share in
third quarter of 2001.

But the fourth quarter is looking "exactly as we had
planned it," with production and costs on track with
the company`s estimates, said John Carrington, vice
chairman and chief operating officer.

Barrick`s exploration spending in 2002 is expected to
total $100 million, officials said on the call.
Exploration buudgets for 2003 haven`t been finalized.

-END-
Avatar
24.10.02 20:16:01
Beitrag Nr. 2.605 ()
October 22.

The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex duty premiums: AM $2.65, PM $2.63, with world gold at $312.50 and $313. Solidly above legal import point. Generally the dealers exposed to the Eastern physical trade are notably more confident of gold’s holding than other observers. Dow Jones from Sydney quotes a Rothschild bullion trader there to the effect that "Tuesday`s trade demonstrated the existence of physical demand at US$310/oz.", while Standard NY feels bold enough to say:

"with support looking solid under $310.00, the festive season approaching and an easing in the (over) bought conditions of late, the medium term direction certainly appears to favour a rally back towards $320.00."


Tokyo continues to frustrate, however. A promising rally at the opening was abruptly routed by a sudden, not easily explained surge in the yen, which enabled
the Trade houses to smash the market in arbitrage trade. The active contract closed down 3 yen; overall volume was the equivalent of 18,563 Comex lots and open interest fell by 357 Comex equivalent. (NY traded 23,075 yesterday: open interest rose 1,472 contracts.)

Clearly what bothers Western oriented dealers is the readiness of selling on any rally: one notes for instance that, gold having had the temerity to rise in overnight dealings, Comex is estimating 16,000 contracts have already traded today by 11am.

So this is an appropriate moment to consider one of the more important gold market research papers in some time: Mike Bolser’s posting today on The Golden
Sextant analyzing the curious symmetry between the growth of the JPM group’s derivative exposure and pivotal events in the gold market:

"Executive Summary"

"A June 1996 high standard deviation preemptive selling episode brought about a downward directional change in the 200-day moving average of gold prices. Immediately following that change in trend, the two banks that later became J.P. Morgan Chase reported unprecedented one-time growth spurts in their interest rate derivatives, which are related to gold prices.

Trading patterns in gold and interest rate derivatives are presented and striking correlations are shown, suggesting that a larger macro-economic strategy involving interest rates has been associated with gold and preemptive selling. This strategy has also impacted the interest rate sensitive government-sponsored enterprises. Current, deteriorating economic fundamentals are displayed, further suggesting that the gold and interest rate strategy is under duress. In closing, the work of currency crisis experts relating to exhaustion of gold reserves during unsustainable policy periods is briefly discussed."
See :
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA2.html#anchor380541

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
24.10.02 20:38:08
Beitrag Nr. 2.606 ()
TG

hast Du nun die Fragen zum Silberverbrauch bei digitalen Drucken geklärt ??
Avatar
24.10.02 20:59:25
Beitrag Nr. 2.607 ()


http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/021024/240178_1.html

Press Release Source: Eldorado Gold Corporation

Eldorado Gold Corporation: Third Quarter 2002 Financial Results: Net Income $2.0 M, $0.01 Per Share


Thursday October 24, 8:34 am ET

(all figures in United States dollars unless otherwise indicated)


VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 24, 2002-- Paul N. Wright, President and Chief Executive Officer of Eldorado Gold Corporation ("Eldorado", the "Company", or "we") (TSX:ELD - News), is pleased to announce the Company`s Unaudited Third Quarter 2002 Financial Results.
Highlights

Profitability continues: 3Q Net Income $2.0 M (Nine months Net Income $4.2 M)
Kisladag feasibility awarded to Hatch is scheduled for March 2003 completion
Hedging reduced to 10,972 ounces, remainder to be liquidated by year end


Financial Results

The Company today reported its Third Quarter 2002 Unaudited Financial Results, with net earnings for the quarter amounting to a profit of $2.0 M ($0.01 per share) and nine months of $4.2 M ($0.03 per share) compared to a loss of $1.0 M ($0.01 per share) and a nine month loss of $3.3 M ($0.03 per share) in 2001. Third quarter 2002 gold revenues were $9.7 M with nine month gold revenues of $24.9 M compared to $8.0 M and nine months of $26.1 M in 2001. Cash flow for the third quarter from operating activities was $4.4 M with nine months of $6.1 M compared to $4.5 M and nine months of $9.0 M in 2001. The Company realized a gold price of $307/oz. in the third quarter compared to $296/oz. in the third quarter of 2001 resulting in a contribution margin (the difference between gold revenues and total cash costs) of $118/oz. or $3.4 M. This compares to a contribution margin of $85 /oz. or $2.1 M in the third quarter of 2001.

Financial Position

The Company further strengthened the balance sheet in the third quarter. Principal payments of $0.6 M in the quarter reduced the Company`s outstanding bank debt to $2.2 M. The Company is currently delivering into the remaining hedge book which at the end of the quarter was 10,972 ounces. The gold hedge position will be liquidated in the fourth quarter.

Sao Bento

Gold production in the third quarter increased to 28,469 ounces compared with 27,702 ounces in the 2nd quarter 2002. This level of production reflects the mine returning to its normal level of production. Total cash costs for the quarter and year to date are at $189/oz. The Company forecasts production and cash costs for the year of approximately 105,000 ounces and $185/oz. respectively.

Drilling at Sao Bento continues from an underground platform on the 23rd Level designed to both upgrade and extend the mine`s resource base. At the Brumal project, located 5 kilometers from the Sao Bento operation, drilling continues and an update will be provided toward the end of the fourth quarter.

Kisladag

A total of 4,600 meters of infill reverse circulation drilling was completed on the property during the quarter. The results will be used to update the resource and reserve statement for the Kisladag Feasibility Study. Metallurgical test work to provide process design parameters for the Feasibility Study is ongoing and the Environmental Impact Assessment Study is also in progress. Project development continues to be on schedule with the Feasibility Study awarded to Hatch Associates Ltd. The Feasibility Study is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2003.

Corporate Developments

The Company is in the process of submitting a 40F Registration to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Subsequent to the filing we plan to begin the process of application for a listing on the American Stock Exchange.

The Company announces the appointment of Nancy E. Woo, Manager, Investor Relations. Nancy is an investor relations professional who brings to our team working knowledge of North American public markets and experience working with an exploration company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Nancy is a graduate of the University of British Columbia and The American University, Washington, DC, and currently serves on the Board of the Canadian Investor Relations Institute ("CIRI") and on the CIRI BC Chapter Board.

Eldorado has superior gold assets in Brazil and Turkey, two countries with enormous geological potential. In Brazil we are focusing on the continuing improvement at the Sao Bento mine, and on the potential of the Brumal property. In Turkey, we continue to expand our asset base, with a resource of approximately 8.3 million ounces in an increasingly attractive jurisdiction. With our international expertise in mining, finance and project development, together with highly skilled and dedicated staff, Eldorado is well positioned to grow in value as we create and pursue new opportunities.

ON BEHALF OF ELDORADO GOLD CORPORATION
Paul N. Wright, President and Chief Executive Officer

Certain of the statements made may contain forward-looking statements which involve known and unknown risk, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. We do not expect to update forward-looking statements continually as conditions change and you are referred to the full discussion of the Company`s business contained in the Company`s Prospectus, dated May 10, 2002, and AIF dated May 17, 2002.

This and other news releases complete with graphic attachments, if any, are available at the Company`s website http:www.eldoradogold.com or may be acquired by fax or mail upon request.

-0-

PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
First Second Third Third First First
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Nine Nine
2002 2002 2002 2001 Months Months
2002 2001
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold Production
Ounces 16,963 27,702 28,469 25,101 73,134 79,841
Cash Operating Cost
($/oz) 166 195 185 206 184 222
Total Cash Cost
($/oz)1 171 201 189 211 189 228
Total Production Cost
($/oz)2 310 296 259 300 285 311
Realized Price
($/oz) 3 292 304 307 296 302 299
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sao Bento Mine, Brazil
Ounces 16,963 27,702 28,469 25,101 73,134 79,841
Tonnes to Mill 89,342 96,519 100,185 101,750 286,046 323,109
Grade (grams /
tonne) 9.85 9.23 8.87 9.16 9.30 9.26
Cash Operating Cost
($/oz) 166 195 185 206 184 222
Total Cash Cost
($/oz)1 171 201 189 211 189 228
Total Production Cost
($/oz)2 310 296 259 300 285 311
----------------------------------------------------------------------

1 Cash Operating Costs plus royalties and the cost of off-site
administration.
2 Total Cash Cost plus depreciation, amortization and reclamation.
3 Excludes amortization of deferred gain.



Eldorado Gold Corporation
Consolidated Balance Sheets
Expressed in thousands of U.S. dollars
September September December 31
2002 2001 2001
ASSETS (unaudited) (unaudited) (audited)

Current Assets
Cash $ 9,078 $ 3,826 $ 4,752
Restricted cash 1,011 400 475
Accounts receivable 3,317 3,483 3,747
Inventories 5,619 5,019 5,069
-----------------------------------
19,025 12,728 14,043


Mine property, plant and equipment 63,183 67,667 66,495
Mineral properties and deferred
development 32,184 30,425 30,673
Investments and advances 122 241 122
Other assets and deferred charges 878 1,998 1,961
-----------------------------------
$ 115,392 $ 113,059 $ 113,294
-----------------------------------
-----------------------------------

LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued
liabilities $ 7,442 $ 8,117 $ 11,769
Current portion of long term debt 2,200 6,316 6,243
-----------------------------------
9,642 14,433 18,012

Provision for reclamation costs 3,467 3,467 3,467
Deferred gain 2,743 6,200 5,621
Future income taxes 188 172 178
Convertible debentures 6,758 8,438 8,482
Long term debt - 10,602 9,103
-----------------------------------
22,798 43,312 44,863

SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY
Share capital (Note 4) 336,633 316,401 316,406
Equity portion of convertible
debentures 1,094 1,400 1,400
Deficit (245,133) (248,054) (249,375)
-----------------------------------
92,594 69,747 68,431
-----------------------------------
$ 115,392 $ 113,059 $ 113,294
-----------------------------------
-----------------------------------



Approved by the Board Approved by the Board
Paul N. Wright Hugh C. Morris
Director Director



Eldorado Gold Corporation
Consolidated Statements of Operations and Deficit
Expressed in thousands of U.S. dollars except per share amounts
Three Three
months months
Ended Ended Nine months ended
September September September 30
30, 2002 30, 2001 2002 2001
(unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited)
Revenue
Gold sales $ 9,666 $ 7,994 $ 24,881 $ 26,138
Interest and other
income 2,198 54 5,334 643
------------------------------------------------
11,864 8,048 30,215 26,781

Expenses
Operating costs 5,385 5,306 13,851 18,185
Depletion, depreciation
and amortization 2,432 2,262 7,315 6,726
General and administrative 827 851 2,230 2,336
Exploration expense 174 64 901 429
Interest and financing
costs 237 538 947 2,189
Gain on conversion of
convertible debenture - - (463) -
Foreign exchange loss 150 (62) 237 58
------------------------------------------------
9,205 8,959 25,018 29,923

Profit (loss) before the
undernoted items 2,659 (911) 5,197 (3,142)
------------------------------------------------

Writedown of mine property,
plant and equipment (363) - (363) -
Gain (loss) on disposals
of mine property, plant
and equipment 4 (29) (192) 60

------------------------------------------------
Profit (loss) before
income taxes 2,300 (940) 4,642 (3,082)

Taxes
Current (341) (98) (400) (17)
Future - - - (203)

------------------------------------------------
Net income (loss)
for the period $ 1,959 (1,038) $ 4,242 $ (3,302)
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------

Deficit at the beginning
of the period (247,092) (247,016) (249,375) (244,752)
------------------------------------------------
Deficit at end of
the period $ (245,133) $ (248,054) $ (245,133) $ (248,054)
------------------------------------------------

Weighted average number
of shares
outstanding 172,294,114 102,285,772 137,403,755 98,877,280
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------

Basic - Income (loss)
per share - U.S.$ $ 0.01 $ (0.01) $ 0.03 $ (0.03)
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------
Basic - Income (loss)
per share - CDN.$ $ 0.02 $ (0.02) $ 0.04 $ (0.05)
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------
Diluted - Income (loss)
per share - U.S.$ $ 0.01 $ (0.01) $ 0.02 $ (0.03)
------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------



Eldorado Gold Corporation
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
Expressed in thousands of U.S. dollars
Three Three
months months
Ended Ended Nine months ended
September September September 30
30, 2002 30, 2001 2002 2001
(unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited)
Cash flows from
operating activities
Net Income (loss)
for the period $ 1,959 $(1,038) $ 4,242 $(3,302)
Items not affecting cash
Depletion, depreciation
and amortization 2,432 2,262 7,315 6,726
Writedown of property,
plant and equipment 363 - 363 -
Future income taxes - - - 203
Gain (loss) on disposals
of mine property, plant
and equipment (4) 29 192 (60)
Interest and financing
costs 39 45 139 135
Gain on conversion of
convertible debenture - - (463) -
Amortization of hedging
gain (927) (555) (2,764) (2,212)
Amortization of
financing fees 9 - 59 193
Foreign exchange loss 1,450 429 1,940 515
---------------------------------------------
5,321 1,172 11,023 2,198
Decrease (increase)
in accounts receivable 1,049 275 430 1,461
Decrease (increase)
in inventories 283 (372) (550) (350)
Increase (decrease)
in accounts payable
and accrued liabilities (2,236) 1,315 (4,827) 1,564
Liquidation of hedges - 2,090 - 4,090

---------------------------------------------
4,417 4,480 6,076 8,963
Cash flow from investing
activities
Mine property, plant
and equipment (1,095) (815) (4,059) (3,580)
Proceeds from disposals
of mine property,
plant and equipment - - 50 215
Mineral properties
and deferred development (756) (298) (1,511) (983)
Investments and advances - 21 - 36
Restricted cash (3) (400) (536) 6,653

---------------------------------------------
(1,854) (1,492) (6,056) 2,341
Cash flow from financing
activities
Repayment of long/short
term debt (850) (944) (12,204) (9,089)
Issue of common shares:
Voting - for cash 555 28 18,553 34
Other assets and deferred
charges - (86) (114) (171)

---------------------------------------------
(295) (1,002) 6,235 (9,226)

Foreign exchange (loss)
gain on cash held
in foreign currency (1,456) (450) (1,929) (552)
---------------------------------------------

Net Increase (decrease)
in cash and cash
equivalents 812 1,536 4,326 1,526

Cash and cash equivalents
at beginning of
the period 8,266 2,290 4,752 2,300
---------------------------------------------

Cash and cash equivalents
at end of the period $ 9,078 $ 3,826 $ 9,078 $ 3,826
---------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------

Supplemental cash flow
information - (Note 6)
Interest paid $ 69 $ 162 $ 624 $ 1,260
Income tax paid $ 245 $ 62 $ 304 $ 188

NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 3rd Quarter ended September 30, 2002 and 2001 (in thousands of U.S. dollars except for per share and per ounce amounts.

1. Nature of Operations

Eldorado Gold Corporation ("Eldorado", "the Company") is engaged in gold mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation. Gold, the primary product, is produced in Brazil and exploration activities are carried on in Brazil and Turkey.

The Company has not determined whether all its development properties contain ore reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of the amount shown for mineral properties and deferred development is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, the ability of the Company to obtain the necessary financing, licenses and permits to complete the exploration and development of its properties, and upon future profitable production or proceeds from the disposition of the properties. The amounts shown as mineral properties and deferred development represent net costs to date, less amounts amortized and/or written off and do not necessarily represent present or future values.

2. Significant Accounting Policies

Basis of presentation

These interim financial statements do not include all of the financial notes required in annual audited statements. These interim financial statements should be read in conjunction with the most recent annual financial statements of the company.

These financial statements follow the same accounting policies and methods of application as the most recent annual financial statements of the company.

Earnings (loss) per share

Earnings (loss) per share amounts are calculated using the weighted average number of shares outstanding during the nine months ended of 137,403,755 (Nine months 2001 - 98,877,280).

3. Hedging Commitments

Gold hedging

At September 30, 2002, Eldorado`s hedging program consists of the following spot deferred gold contracts:

-0-

2002

Forward gold sales contracts (ounces) 10,972

Average price ($/oz.) 306

The positions held by Eldorado are in the form of spot deferred contracts of 10,972 ounces to be delivered at a rate of 5,000 ounces per month, at a price of $306.30

The mark to market value of the Company`s hedge position at September 30, 2002 was negative $200 at a spot price of $322.00 per ounce using a contango rate of 1.65%.

4. Share Capital

Effective January 1, 2002, the Company adopted the new standard for accounting for Stock based Compensation.

As at September 30, 2002, the Company has a share option plan as described below. No compensation expense is recognized in the consolidated statements of operations and deficit for this plan when options are granted pursuant to the plan. Consideration paid for shares on exercise of the share options is credited to share capital.

Stock option plan

The Company established a share purchase option plan (`the Plan") in June 1994. Amendments to the Plan were approved in June 1995, June 1996 and May 2000. The Board of Directors administers the Plan, whereby it may from time to time grant up to a total of 10,200,000 options to directors, officers, employees, consultants or advisors. All options granted under the Plan shall expire not later than the tenth anniversary of the date the options were granted. The exercise price of an option is determined by the Board of Directors, but shall not be less than the common shares of the Company on the Toronto Stock Exchange on the last business day before the date on which the options is granted. Vesting and terms are at the discretion of the Board of Directors.

A summary of the Company`s options at September 30,2002 and the changes for the period ending on that date is presented below:

-0-

Nine month ended
September 30, 2002
-------------------------------
Shares Weighted average
exercise price
-------------------------------

Outstanding at the beginning
of the period 4,479,500 0.51
Granted 1,742,500 0.74
Exercised (905,000) 1.15
Expired/Cancelled (584,500) 0.81
-------------------------------
Outstanding at the end
of the period 4,732,500 0.56

Options exercisable at period end 4,672,500 0.55


The following table summarizes information about options granted
during the period ended September 30, 2002.

Shares Weighted average Weighted average
exercise price fair value
1,432,500 0.71 0.34
145,000 0.70 0.34
90,000 1.32 0.36
90,000 1.32 0.72


The following table summarizes information about share options
outstanding as at September 30, 2002.

Stock Options
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Range Of Number Weighted-Average Weighted
Exercise Outstanding At Remaining Average
Price ($) September 30, Contractual Exercise
2002 Life (years) Price ($)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
0.80 to 9.40 242,500 0.20 1.34
0.40 to 1.00 500,000 0.25 0.46
0.50 to 0.65 821,500 1.21 0.54
0.70 to 0.80 110,000 2.74 0.71
0.24 to 0.51 1,521,000 3.88 0.29
0.70 to 1.32 1,537,500 4.30 0.76
----------------------------------------------------------------------
0.24 to 9.40 4,732,500 2.94 0.56


Warrants
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Number Weighted-Average Weighted
Conversion Outstanding At Remaining Average
Price ($) September 30, Contractual Conversion
2002 Life (years) Price ($)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------
0.80 6,220,459 0.39 0.80
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Had the company determined compensation costs on this Plan based
on the fair value at the grant dates for those share options
consistent with the fair value method of accounting for stock-based
compensation, the Company`s net income and earnings per share would
have been reduced to the pro forma amounts indicated below:

U.S.$ CDN.$
Net income (loss) for the period As reported $ 4,242 $ 6,662
Pro Forma $ 3,870 $ 6,078


Basic and diluted earnings per share As reported $ 0.03 $ 0.05
Pro Forma $ 0.03 $ 0.05


The pro forma amounts presented above, do not include the effect
of share options granted before January 1, 2002.

The fair values of options included in the pro forma amounts
presented above, have been estimated using an option-pricing model.
Assumptions used in the pricing model are as follows:

a) average risk-free interest rate ranging from 4.18% to 4.3%
b) expected life 5 years
c) expected volatility 50%
d) expected dividends nil

5. Segmented Information

All of Eldorado`s operations are related to the gold mining industry. In 2002 and 2001 Eldorado had one producing mine, Sao Bento, with mining and exploration assets located in South America and Turkey.

-0-

Three months ended Nine months ended
September September September September
30 30 30 30
2002 2001 2002 2001
(Restated) (Restated)
(unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold sales
Sao Bento Mine $ 9,666 $ 7,994 $ 24,881 $ 26,138
-----------------------------------------------
9,666 7,994 24,881 26,138
-----------------------------------------------
Operating costs
Sao Bento Mine 5,385 5,306 13,851 18,185
-----------------------------------------------
5,385 5,306 13,851 18,185
-----------------------------------------------
Depletion, depreciation
and amortization
Sao Bento Mine 2,262 2,104 6,786 6,311
-----------------------------------------------
2,262 2,104 6,786 6,311
-----------------------------------------------
Corporate expenses, net
of interest and other
income 814 (1,431) 1,854 (4,355)
Exploration expense (174) (64) (901) (429)
Writedown of property,
plant and equipment (363) - (363) -
Gain (loss) disposals
mine property,
and equipment 4 (29) (192) 60
-----------------------------------------------
Profit (loss) before
income taxes 2,300 (940) 4,642 (3,082)
-----------------------------------------------
Taxes
Current (341) (98) (400) (17)
Future - - - (203)
-----------------------------------------------
Net income (loss) for
the period $ 1,959 $(1,038) $ 4,242 $ (3,302)
-----------------------------------------------



Three months ended Nine months ended
September September September September
30 30 30 30
2002 2001 2002 2001
(Restated) (Restated)
(unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited) (unaudited)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues by geographic
area
North America $ 26 $ 16 $ 137 $ 190
South America 11,838 8,030 30,078 26,588
Turkey - 2 - 3
Australia - - - -
--------------------------------------------
$11,864 $ 8,048 $30,215 $26,781
--------------------------------------------
Net income (loss) by
geographic area
North America $(1,224) $(1,328) $(2,641) $(4,413)
South America 3,285 364 7,272 1,374
Turkey (108) (21) (368) (223)
Australia 6 (53) (21) (40)
--------------------------------------------
$ 1,959 $(1,038) $ 4,242 $(3,302)
--------------------------------------------



Nine months ended
September September December
30 30 31
2002 2001 2001
(Restated) (Restated)
(unaudited) (unaudited) (audited)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Segment assets
Sao Bento Mine $ 76,248 $ 78,135 $ 78,855
------------------------------------
Total assets for reportable segments 76,248 78,135 78,855

Mineral properties and deferred
development 32,184 30,425 30,673
Other 6,960 4,499 3,766
------------------------------------
$115,392 $113,059 $113,294
------------------------------------
Assets by geographic area
North America $ 6,126 $ 3,974 $ 3,324
South America 76,359 78,321 79,011
Turkey 32,902 30,762 30,959
Australia 5 2 -
------------------------------------
$115,392 $113,059 $113,294
------------------------------------


6. Supplementary Cash Flow Information

Nine months Nine months
ended ended
September 30, September 30,
2002 2001
Restated
(unaudited) (unaudited)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Financing activities
Long term debt backend fees accrual $ (135) $ (493)
Increase in long term debt 135 493
Interest accrual on convertible
debentures 139 135
Convertible debentures 1,724 (135)
Gain on conversion of convertible
debenture (463) -
Shares issued for convertible debenture (1,706) -
Equity portion of convertible debenture 306 -
------------------------
$ - $ -
------------------------

MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 3rd Quarter ended September 30, 2002 and 2001 (in thousands of U.S. dollars except per share and per ounce amounts)

Management`s Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") of the financial condition and results of operations of Eldorado Gold Corporation (the "Company" or "Eldorado") should be read in conjunction with the unaudited consolidated financial statements and the notes. The Company prepares and files its interim consolidated financial statements and MD&A in United States dollars ("US$") and in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP").

Third Quarter 2002 Financial Performance

Eldorado`s unaudited net income for the third quarter of 2002 was a profit of $1,959 or $0.01 per share compared to a loss of $1,038 or ($0.01) per share in the third quarter of 2001. Revenues were higher in the third quarter of 2002 as gold production of 28,469 ounces exceeded gold production of 25,101 ounces in the third quarter of 2001. Realized gold price of $307 in third quarter of 2002 exceeded the previously comparable quarter of 2001 of $296. Other income for the quarter was higher than the third quarter of 2001 as $2,065 of autoclave repair insurance contingency was released from the balance sheet as the repair project was completed under budget and the balance of $133 was interest and other income from other source.

The Company`s unaudited net income for the first nine months of 2002 was a profit of $4,242 or $0.03 per share compared to a loss of $3,302 or ($0.03) per share in the first nine months of 2001. The Company ended the third quarter 2002 with unrestricted cash of $9,078 compared to $4,752 as at December 31, 2001. Total debt was reduced from $15,346 as at December 31, 2001 to $2,200 excluding fees of $1,059 in the nine month period ended September 30, 2002 which has been included in the current liabilities. Cash flow from operations after working capital changes for the nine months ending September 30, 2002 was $6,076 compared with cash generation of $8,963 for the nine months ending September 30, 2001.

-0-

Thousands of U.S. dollars except share amounts

3rd 3rd Nine Nine
Quarter Quarter months months
2002 2001 2002 2001

Gold Revenue $ 9,666 $ 7,994 $ 24,881 $ 26,138
Net Income (loss) $ 1,959 $ (1,038)$ 4,242 $ (3,302)
Net Income per share (loss) $ 0.01 $ (0.01)$ 0.03 $ (0.03)
Cash Flow from operations $ 4,417 $ 4,480 $ 6,076 $ 8,963

Decreased revenues in the nine months of 2002 compared with the same period in 2001 occurred as a result of reduced production due to the December 10, 2001 shutdown of the #2 autoclave at Sao Bento for major repairs. Repairs were completed and the autoclave was restarted on March 23, 2002 and is operating at full capacity. The average realized price of gold per ounce in the nine month period of 2002 was $302 per ounce compared to $299 in the same nine month period of 2001.

Other income of $5,334 an increase of $4,691 over the first nine months of 2001, a result of recording $1,118 of cash received from the autoclave business interruption insurance claim and $3,965 in autoclave repair insurance claim during the nine months ended September 30, 2002 and the balance of $251 from interest and other income.

-0-

Production Sao Bento Mine

2002 2001 2002 2001
3rd 3rd Nine Nine
Quarter Quarter Months Months
Gold Production
Ounces 28,469 25,101 73,134 79,841
Cash Operating Cost ($/oz) 185 206 184 222
Total Cash Cost ($/oz) 189 211 189 228
Total Production Cost ($/oz) 259 300 285 311
Realized Price 307 296 302 299

Sao Bento Mine, Brazil
Ounces 28,469 25,101 73,134 79,841
Ore tonnes 100,185 101,750 286,046 323,109
Grade (grams/tonne) 8.87 9.16 9.30 9.26
Cash Operating Cost ($/oz) 185 206 184 222
Total Cash Cost ($/oz) 189 211 189 228
Total Production Cost ($/oz) 259 300 285 311

Gold production in the third quarter of 2002 for the Sao Bento mine was 28,469 ounces (Y-T-D 73,134 ounces). This compares to third quarter 2001 gold production at Sao Bento of 25,101 ounces (79,841 ounces for the first nine months of 2001). The mine has returned to its normal levels of production after the completion of the repair at the #2 autoclave and elimination of power restrictions in the first quarter of 2002.

In the third quarter of 2002 the Sao Bento mine produced 100,185 tonnes of ore at a grade of 8.87 grams per tonne (Y-T-D 286,046 tonnes at 9.30 g/t). This compares to 101,750 tonnes of production in the third quarter of 2001 at a grade of 9.16 grams per tonne (323,109 tonnes at 9.26 g/t for the first nine months of 2001). At the end of the third quarter of 2002 the mine had approximately 27,000 tonnes of ore in above ground inventory. The additional ore inventory is reflected as an increase in inventory on the balance sheet in the amount of $1,239.

Third quarter 2002 total cash costs at Sao Bento were $189 per ounce compared to $211 per ounce in 2001 (Y-T-D $189 per ounce vs. $228 per ounce in the first nine months of 2001). The total cash costs for the third quarter of 2002 include $13 per ounce increase in costs a result of decrease in ore inventory at the mine site. The decrease in ore inventory in the third quarter is the result of operating the processing plant at full capacity. The majority of the remaining ore stockpile will be processed over the remainder of 2002 to assure maximum production from the autoclaves.

-0-

Consolidated Gold Production Cost per Ounce

3rd 3rd 9 9
Quarter Quarter Months Months
2002 2001 2002 2001

Direct mining expenses $ 168 $ 177 $ 197 $ 189
Currency hedging - 36 - 32
Inventory change 13 (15) (4) (5)
Third party smelting, refining and
transportation 3 5 3 5
Vancouver Costs 1 3 2 1
By-product credits - - - -
Business Interruption credit - - (14) -
-------- -------- -------- --------
Cash operating cost per ounce $ 185 $ 206 $ 184 $ 222

Royalties and Production taxes 4 5 5 6
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total cash costs per ounce $ 189 $ 211 $ 189 $ 228

Depreciation/Depletion 79 84 93 78
Exchange (Gain)/ Loss (9) 5 3 5
Reclamation and mine closure - - - -
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total production costs per ounce $ 259 $ 300 $ 285 $ 311
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------

Financial Condition and Liquidity

Cash from operations

Operations, after changes in working capital, generated cash flow of $6,076 in the nine months of 2002 compared to $8,963 in the first nine months of 2001. The decrease in cash from operations in the nine months of 2001 is mainly due to $4,090 earned in hedge liquidation that occurred in the first quarter 2001 which was not duplicated in 2002.

Forward Sales and Other Commitments

-0-

At September 30, 2002, Eldorado`s hedging program consists of the
following spot deferred gold contracts.

Gold Hedge Position after giving effect
to closed hedges 2002 2003 2004

Gold ounces
Spot deferred contracts
Amount hedged 10,972 - -
Average price ($/oz.) $ 302 $ - $ -

The positions held by Eldorado are in the form of spot deferred contracts including 10,972 ounces to be delivered at a rate of 5,000 ounces per month, at a price of $306.30. The mark to market value of the Company`s hedge position at September 30, 2002 was negative $200 at a spot price of $322.00 per ounce using a contango rate of 1.65%.

Forecast

The Company is forecasting gold production for 2002 of 105,000 ounces at a cash cost of $185 per ounce.

The Toronto Stock Exchange has neither approved nor disapproved the form or content of this release.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Eldorado Gold Corporation
Earl Price, 604/687-4018 or 1-888-ELD-8166
fax: 604/687-4026
info@eldoradogold.com
or
Nancy Woo, 604/687-4018 or 1-888-ELD-8166
fax: 604/687-4026
www.eldoradogold.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Eldorado Gold Corporation
Avatar
24.10.02 23:12:04
Beitrag Nr. 2.608 ()
Avatar
25.10.02 01:13:37
Beitrag Nr. 2.609 ()


http://www.pennaluna.com/prospector.htm?news_item=332



23 October, 2002

News update from the Idaho silver fields

Pennaluna Prospector Update Edition -- Coeur d’Alene, Idaho -- October 23, 2002

Talk about a scary time of year.

Halloween, the time of ghouls and freaks, arrives very soon. And it’s quickly followed by another day full of strange creatures that can be even more frightening: Election Day.

The economy is scary too. Is it on the mend... or getting ready for a double-dip?


Up here in North Idaho, it looks more like the latter at the moment. Unemployment in the Panhandle counties has climbed to 9%. If our area real estate bubble starts to deflate, it’s bound to rise even more.

We don’t know how this will all work out. But one thing we’re certain of is this. Things are almost never as good – or as bad – as they appear. Which is cause for hope.

While we wait to see what happens, here are a few of the recent Northwest mining developments.

* Yamana (TSE:YRI) -- Spokane-based Yamana said yesterday that detailed exploration of its gold projects in Argentina’s southern Patagonia region is underway. It’s being carried out by the Santa Cruz Joint Venture, a partnership of Yamana and two large Peru gold mining outfits -- Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. and Mauricio Hochschild & Compania S.A.C.

Yamana says the first detailed work will focus on six prospects at two of its gold properties in Santa Cruz Province, where Yamana controls more than 700 square kilometers of mineral rights. YRI has been trading lately at about US .11.

* Sunshine Mine -- David Bond reported in the “Coeur d’Alene Press” over the weekend that the purchase of the Sunshine mine by Nevada-based American Reclamation has hit a snag. The Sunshine, which has so far produced over 350 million ounces of silver, is now owned by the corporate bondholders of bankrupt Sunshine Mining. They’ve also been talking sales possibilities with New Orleans-based Rathborne Energy.

American Reclamation claims that the bondholders are reneging on a September 20 purchase agreement. That agreement involved purchase of the mine for $100,000 in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities, including roughly $5 million in pensions. American Reclamation says it was planning to reopen the Sunshine with 25 workers and then work up to 75 people “to begin with”. Now it’s making litigation noises.

* Hecla (NYSE:HL) -- Earlier this month, Hecla boosted projections for 2002 gold and silver output for the third time this year. It now expects annual gold production to hit 235,000 ounces, a 10% rise over the previous estimate. Silver output should rise to 8.2 million ounces from the 8 million forecast earlier. The stock is trading at about $3.30.

* Joe Suveg -- Joe Suveg, a long-time mining engineer in our area and frequent visitor here at Pennaluna, died recently in a car accident that also injured his wife Ivanka. Born in Hungary, he and Ivanka left that country just after the Revolution of 1956 and emigrated to the US. They settled in Wallace in the late 50’s. For the next 30-some years, Joe worked for mining companies around here, including Hecla and Asarco.

Joe used to visit the office often, back before illness hampered his mobility. We were always happy to see him walk through the door, with his big smile, enthusiasm and sense of fun. When he brought along the delicious bread that Ivanka would sometimes bake for us, so much the better. Joe was 74. He was a fine and gracious man, and we will miss him.

* Fischer-Watt Gold (OTCBB:FWGO) -- Fischer-Watt Gold announced it has inked an agreement with Minera Meridian Minerales S.R.L. de C.V. on their Mercedes gold and silver property in Sonora, Mexico. Minera Meridian is a subsidiary of Meridian Gold Company of Reno. Under the agreement, Fischer-Watt can acquire nearly 2,000 hectacres of property in return for expenditures over four years. Shares of the little Coeur d’Alene-based firm have traded lately at under a nickel.

* Stillwater Mining (NYSE:SWC) -- The stock of Stillwater continues to struggle in advance of a quarterly earnings announcement next Monday. The only U.S. producer of palladium and platinum, the Columbus, Montana firm has been hurt by labor trouble and weak PGM demand. Despite management assurances that the labor problems have been resolved, the stock has skidded from a 52-week high above $20 to down around $5.40 now – and briefly even dipped below $5.00.

* Western Garnet International Ltd. (TSE:WG) -- CDA-based Western Garnet earlier this month announced it had acquired Kominex Mineral Mahlwerk GmbH. of Ermsleben, Germany. Kominex is a $2 million (sales) firm that provides full-service operations to collect, recycle, and sell garnet and aluminum oxide. Western Garnet mines and markets industrial minerals. The shares are trading in Toronto at around US$ 4.00.

* Atlas Mining (OTCBB:ALMI) -- Atlas said earlier this month that samples of halloysite clay from its Dragon Mine in Utah were processed and submitted to potential buyers in the U.S., Europe, and Asia by Lintech International, its industrial minerals distributor.

Atlas said Lintech estimates that the initial market for the clay would be about 2,000 tons, or roughly $900,000 in revenue. It estimates a potential annual market of 5,000 to 10,000 tons, or about $2 to $4 million in revenue. Shares of the Osburn-based mining, timber and underground mining contractor are trading at about a dime.

* Some folks thanked us for making them aware of the IRA change we mentioned in our last issue (i.e., annual contribution limits for general and Roth IRA’s have been upped from $2,000 to $3,000… and people over 50-years-old can add an extra $500, capping their max at $3,500).

If you like to keep an eye on tax changes and their impact on you, here’s a site you should probably visit: www.taxplanet.com

Gary Klott, a syndicated tax columnist, edits the site. It holds a lot of helpful information.

“It won’t work. We know because we haven’t tried it.” Unknown

Editor: Tom Wobker
Avatar
25.10.02 01:13:43
Beitrag Nr. 2.610 ()
Aus einem anderen Board geklaut:

Geschrieben von R.Deutsch am 24. Oktober 2002 18:30:11:

Bei einem Goldpreis von 324 hat Barricks Hedge Book einen negativen Marktwert von 301 Millionen Dollar. Bei einem Preis von 307 pro Unze ist der Marktwert 0 (braek even = keine Verluste). Bei einem Marktpreis von 341 läge der Verlust bei etwa 650 Millionen. Also muss der Goldpreis möglichst in der Nähe von 307 gehalten werden. Barrick ist nur einer der Hedger, wenn auch der größte. Im Folgenden der Text der Pressekonferenz.


Barrick Sees Its Share Of Hedging Market Declining

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021024/1049000622_1.html

VANCOUVER, October 24 (Dow Jones) -- Barrick Gold
Corp. expects its 15 to 20 percent share of the world`s
estimated 100-million-ounce gold hedging market will
drop as the company reduces ounces committed
under its hedges, Barrick chief financial officer Jamie
Sokalsky said Thursday.

On a conference call, Sokalsky said liquidity in the
hedging marketplace is down from several years ago,
but that reduction isn`t affecting Barrick`s ability to do
business with counterparties.

"We still see a reasonably robust market," Sokalsky
said, adding that there is less business going through
the market in general and the company considers this
factor when it does transactions.

Barrick is in the hedging market every second day,
on average, as it rolls over contracts, he said.

The company`s forward sales position was 16.9 million
ounces at the end of the third quarter, and it plans to
cut that position to 12 million ounces by the end of 2003.

The company`s variable price sales and call option
contracts totalled 2.2 million ounces at quarter-end,
with a target of 1.5 million ounces.

The mark-to-market value of Barrick`s gold contracts
was negative $301 million at the end of the quarter, at
a spot gold price of $324 an ounce, but the
mark-to-market value would approach zero, or
breakeven, at a gold price of $307 an ounce, the
company said.

Barrick surprised observers last month by warning
of reduced third-quarter earnings due to operational
problems at several mines. As reported, actual
earnings in the period were $34 million or 6 cents a
share, down from $59 million or 11 cents a share in
third quarter of 2001.

But the fourth quarter is looking "exactly as we had
planned it," with production and costs on track with
the company`s estimates, said John Carrington, vice
chairman and chief operating officer.

Barrick`s exploration spending in 2002 is expected to
total $100 million, officials said on the call.
Exploration buudgets for 2003 haven`t been finalized.

-END-
Avatar
25.10.02 01:49:29
Beitrag Nr. 2.611 ()
Thai Guru weiß zwar, wie man mit viel Worten viel "Papier" verbraucht, aber ich würde gerne mal von dem großen GURU wissen, wie weit die MINENAKTIEN noch fallen!? Danke für die Antwort vom GURU!!!!!!!
Avatar
25.10.02 01:49:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.612 ()
Thai Guru weiß zwar, wie man mit viel Worten viel "Papier" verbraucht, aber ich würde gerne mal von dem großen GURU wissen, wie weit die MINENAKTIEN noch fallen!? Danke für die Antwort vom GURU!!!!!!!
Avatar
25.10.02 01:50:37
Beitrag Nr. 2.613 ()
Thai Guru weiß zwar, wie man mit viel Worten viel "Papier" verbraucht, aber ich würde gerne mal von dem großen GURU wissen, wie weit die MINENAKTIEN noch fallen!? Danke für die Antwort vom GURU!!!!!!!
Avatar
25.10.02 09:45:43
Beitrag Nr. 2.614 ()
@Waschbr

#2588 aus welchem Board hast du das geklaut und gibt es da auch Guru`s, Kopierer, Weintrinker und Verschwörungstheorien !?

In großer Erwartung.

Grüße Talvi
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25.10.02 10:04:31
Beitrag Nr. 2.615 ()
@talvi
Du hast die Nörgler vergessen
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25.10.02 10:06:09
Beitrag Nr. 2.616 ()
Hi talvi,
Board:

http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/index.htm

was für Anhänger der Eliotwellen; übrigens kann man da schön sachlich diskutieren ... und was dabei lernen!

Übrigens: Warum so Zynisch?

Grüße,
Waschbär
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25.10.02 10:24:06
Beitrag Nr. 2.617 ()
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25.10.02 11:41:07
Beitrag Nr. 2.618 ()
Übrigens: Warum so Zynisch?

färbt das W.O.Board schon so ab !?
Für mich ein Zeichen,bißchen Abstand zunehmen.

Grüße Talvi
Avatar
25.10.02 14:07:27
Beitrag Nr. 2.619 ()
Doors now closing

Oct 24th 2002 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

Signs of a crunch in America`s markets for credit

“TWO months ago, I would have said the chances of a credit crunch were too small to measure,” says the head of syndicated loans at a big American bank. “Now, they are better than evens.”

The signs are ominous: low new-issue volumes for corporate securities, both debt and equity; falling amounts of loans extended by commercial banks; and a higher price for borrowing. A fairly benign explanation of the low volumes is falling demand for money among companies, after a surge of investment in the 1990s. Few companies, after all, want to build factories these days, or invest so much as they once did in information technology. Overcapacity remains. Meanwhile, the suspicion that consumers must soon cut back on their heavy spending justifies inventories kept as lean as possible, along with their financing.

Yet evidence continues to grow that the supply of capital is being shut off, too. It is a process that started with the riskiest securities—that is, junk bonds and new issues of shares—but is now spreading to the safer parts of the credit markets, including those for bank loans and for high-grade corporate bonds.

In recent months, the decline of the junk-bond market has accelerated. Even if you do not count the large quantity of bonds issued by telecoms companies that are now bust or nearly so, the average junk issue trades at a yield of some ten percentage points above Treasury bonds. That is a larger premium even than during the financial crisis caused by the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the autumn of 1998.

A mere $600m of junk debt is now being issued each month, one-eighth the amount of a year ago. The number will now bounce up a bit, but only briefly. Some $1 billion of junk bonds are being offered to help finance the $7 billion leveraged buyout of QwestDex, the yellow-page business owned by Qwest, a telecoms company desperate to raise cash. Another $900m is to be issued to finance the acquisition of a similar business owned by Sprint, another struggling telecoms company. Such directories are a dull, predictable business, and the bonds are rated junk only because of the high levels of leverage used for the acquisitions. After these big financings, little is in the pipeline.

Many companies would love to cut their heavy debt by issuing shares. Yet public offerings of shares ground to a halt in the summer of 2000, and the market has yet to recover. An alternative way for companies with less than stellar ratings to get through tricky periods used to be to set up special entities that would buy receivables from the parent company, using money that was raised cheaply from the capital markets. As bills were paid, so the money was repaid. Yet after Enron`s abuse of this structure, special-purpose vehicles have fallen into disrepute.

Earlier this year, the vast market for commercial paper suddenly dried up, but this was not an insurmountable problem for highly rated companies, which could draw down lines of credit, previously arranged with banks, or tap the market for long-term corporate bonds. No longer. Banks have jacked up the price for back-up credit lines, when they offer them at all. And where the best corporate bonds once yielded less than a percentage point above Treasuries, new-issue spreads have now widened to almost three percentage points. In other words, not all of the Fed`s cuts in interest rates since the start of last year have fed through to companies.

Bankers once went about marketing loans or bonds of highly rated companies merely by mentioning the name of the issuer. Now they have begun organising road shows for borrowers, complete with the elaborate disclosure of information, in a way once done for equity offerings. It is not an easy sell. The number of possible customers has shrunk. Some loan syndicates for large companies now have half the participants that were in them before. Japanese banks, in particular, have pulled out, along with German ones. But American banks also have less appetite for risk. According to BCA Research in Montreal, the percentage of American banks` assets made up of securities, notably safe government bonds, has grown from 34% at the beginning of 2001 to more than 40% today (see chart), with loans falling as a proportion.






That the tightening may continue is clear from recently disclosed results from the annual credit review carried out by the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Comptroller of the Currency. The review assesses all loans over $20m that are syndicated to three or more borrowers. It amounts to $2 trillion in loan commitments to 5,500 customers, or roughly a third of all corporate lending in America. The review employs five grades, with the best grade, a “pass”, signifying a clean bill of health.

Almost 13% of all loans failed to get a pass, compared with 9% of loans last year and just 5% of loans the year before. The practical implication for banks is that they must apply more capital against the loans that have been fingered, or else arrange some other kind of so-called credit enhancement. Either way, the loan becomes less profitable. In effect, they must charge more or reduce their exposure.

Curiously, because the review is supposed to be a matter between regulators and banks, there are strict prohibitions against telling companies that their credit standing has been slashed. Rather, companies guess that this has happened only by facing a testy renegotiation with their lenders. Plenty of such discussions are going on. If companies are unhappy, they cannot challenge the methodology. Nor has any outside work assessed the accuracy of the rating system. A company that has been downgraded can, naturally, seek to arrange a better deal by selling debt or equity through the public markets. This year, that is not much of an option.
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25.10.02 14:55:37
Beitrag Nr. 2.620 ()
US-Auftragseingang im September 2002, minus 5,9%
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25.10.02 15:05:28
Beitrag Nr. 2.621 ()


http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1209214-607…

ERPM to resume mining next week

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Justin Brown

East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM) gold mine is to resume output next week following the acquisition of the company by Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) and the hiring of 2,500 miners, Ian Murray, DRD chief financial officer told I-Net Bridge.

"Over the past two weeks, ERPM has been producing gold on a very small scale. However, the labour is now in place and from next week mining should continue," Murray added.

"DRD expects to derive a lot of value from ERPM," DRD chairman and chief executive officer (CEO), Mark Wellesley-Wood, said at the company`s quarterly results presentation on Thursday.


ERPM`s current estimated mine life is 10 years and it has reserves of 1.5 million ounces and resources of 5.5 million ounces.

Current annual production is 135,000 oz and is expected to climb to 180,000 oz, Wellesley-Wood said.

"ERPM is also the first step for DRD towards a new empowerment joint venture," Wellesley-Wood said.

Earlier in October, Crown Gold Recoveries, a joint venture between DRD (40%) and Khumo Bathong Holdings (60%), purchased ERPM for 90 million rand.

At the beginning of October, two workers were killed and 11 injured during an unprotected strike following a dispute with labour broker Circle Labour over wages.

I-Net Bridge
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25.10.02 15:12:11
Beitrag Nr. 2.622 ()


http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1209161-495…

Durban Deep assesses gold reserve

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Durban Roodepoort Deep, which returned to positive earnings territory yesterday when it reported its results for the September quarter, is carrying out a feasibility study in an effort to assess if it would be economically viable to mine the Argonaut gold reserve, which spreads under southern Johannesburg.

Mark Wellesley-Wood, Durban Deep`s CEO and chairman, said a decision on whether the project would go ahead would not be made for four years, and if it did it would take eight to 10 years before the project would be producing gold.


Durban Deep said Argonaut has a resource base of 111-million ounces. The company said yesterday that "management believes the project will be viable at current rand gold prices and thus represents a major opportunity".

Some analysts are a bit more sceptical, suggesting that the deep level at which mining would need to take place 3km-5km below the surface and the presence of significant underground water make it a risky investment.

"To justify investment in Argonaut, in my opinion, we would need to see a gold price of 350/oz along with an exchange rate above R10 to the dollar," said one analyst.

However, Durban Deep is serious about the project and the company said it had considered listing Argonaut to raise the necessary funding.

Yesterday, though, WellesleyWood said it was perhaps rather too early to be considering the listing option. He said issuing convertible bonds was something else that was being looked at.

The company has ruled out a new share issue and any kind of project finance .

Wellesley-Wood did say, however, that the company was talking with the Industrial Development Corporation, but gave no specifics about funding from the economic development body, bar its capital investment in East Rand Proprietary Mine (ERPM).

Argonaut aside, the company has other projects it wants to deal with first.

Earlier this month, Crown Gold Recoveries, which is 60% held by empowerment mining company Khumo Bathong, finalised a deal to buy a 70% stake in marginal gold mining company ERPM. Also, as a joint venture partner with Khumo Bathong in Crown Recoveries, Durban Deep will play its part in moving to bring the mine back on track.

There has been serious labour disruption at the mine, which is now managed by Durban Deep.

Wellesley-Wood said yesterday that ERPM would start producing again today, now that the process of rehiring workers had been completed.

Durban Deep said that it had rehired 2400 miners, who would be ERPM employees, and it had raised wages.

Durban Deep`s net profit for the September quarter was R162m, R0,89 a share compared with a loss of R550,2m or R3,22 a share in the three months to the end of June this year.

"Operationally, the company has proven its ability to turn mines around and I believe it can turn ERPM around," said Leon Esterhuizen, a mining analyst at Investec Securities.

"However, you can never make a call (based) on its accounting," he said.

Esterhuizen was referring to a contract Durban Deep has to sell gold to Eskom in return for electricity until 2005.

This, he believes, has been further complicated by Durban Deep`s decision to take out a series of call options intended to shield the firm from any possibly negative effects of the deal.

Business Day
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25.10.02 15:19:00
Beitrag Nr. 2.623 ()


http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?cli…

State drops health bills at mining`s door

Ronnie Morris

October 25 2002 at 08:28AM

Cape Town - Mining companies may have to pay the medical costs of workers who contract lung diseases for two years after they became ill, even if they had moved to another mine.

This was one of the amendments proposed in the national assembly this week during the debate on the Occupational Diseases in Mines and Works Amendment Bill. And, should this change be accepted, mining companies could end up paying many millions of rands in additional expenses, it emerged yesterday.


In the case of former asbestos mineworkers and people living near asbestos dumps and mines who contract mesothelioma - cancer of the lungs - the costs over the two-year period, which is the life expectancy once diagnosed, could run between R150 000 and R500 000, said Richard Spoor, an occupational health specialist attorney.

On Tuesday health minister
Manto Tshabalala-Msimang told parliament that occupational health had often been neglected in the past.

In South Africa the burden of diseases from working in mines was unacceptably high, with about 25 000 applications for compensation for occupational lung diseases.

The most common types of diseases were silicosis, caused by the inhalation of dust, asbestosis, chronic obstructive airways disease and in coal mines pneumoconiosis, she said.


But the compensation regime was racially discriminatory and not until 1993, when the Occupational Diseases in Mines and Works Act was amended, could black mineworkers be examined by the Medical Bureau for Occupational Diseases to enable them to claim compensation.

Tshabalala-Msimang said a tripartite committee, consisting of the National Union of Mineworkers and the Mineworkers Union, the Chamber of Mines and the department of minerals and energy affairs, was formed in 1997 to consider sections of the Occupational Diseases in Mines Act.

The committee made three recommendations:

That the frequency of medical examinations be changed from every six months to 24 months because the diseases progressed slowly and would not show up on six-monthly X-rays;


That the owners of a mine where the mineworker became ill would be responsible for the healthcare costs of sick mineworkers for two years after date of certification, even if the mineworker had moved to another mine; and


That it would be a criminal offence for any person who helps a mineworker to register for compensation to charge fees in excess of 0.5 percent.

Chamber of Mines health adviser Fazel Randera said the chamber supported the proposed change.
Avatar
25.10.02 15:23:26
Beitrag Nr. 2.624 ()
#2591 Blecheuro

Keine Antworten auf Deine Frage ?
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25.10.02 15:26:43
Beitrag Nr. 2.625 ()


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/10/25/046.html

Friday, Oct. 25, 2002. Page 5

Norilsk Buys Top Gold Firm

The Moscow Times Metals major Norilsk Nickel announced Thursday that it has acquired 100 percent in Polyus, the country`s largest gold producer.

Norilsk Nickel in now the largest gold producer in Russia, with its share of domestic output exceeding 15 percent.


Polyus, which is based in the Krasnoyarsk region, produced 15 metric tons of gold in 2001, earning revenues of $135 million and net profit of $54 million. The company expects output to reach 25 tons this year.

Norilsk, the world largest producer of nickel and platinum group metal palladium, produces gold as a byproduct of other metals.

The company announced plans earlier thus year to expand its holdings in precious metals to diversify production.

Norilsk and Polyus had been in talks about the potential acquisition since summer.
Avatar
25.10.02 15:32:51
Beitrag Nr. 2.626 ()
TG

Konntest Du die Sache mit dem Silberverbrauch beim Digitalausdruck klären ??
Avatar
25.10.02 16:53:04
Beitrag Nr. 2.627 ()
October 24 - Gold $310.20 down $1.70 - Silver $4.35 down 4 cents

Gold NOISE and a Shaky Stock Market

The "banks" cleaned out the major gold stops right after the open as gold tanked to $308.80. Morgan Stanley then stepped up as a buyer. Gold rallied to the unchanged level when the goons showed up stopping the rally in its tracks. What showed early promise of a key reversal proved a dismal disappointment as the opening downside gap was filled and gold sold off thereafter.

The cabal is having their way with gold. Rallies are always stopped. That is encouraging other sellers to pile in on the short side. If gold is not allowed to go up, it must go down – and it is. The Gold Cartel`s crooked, long reign over gold rolls on. The gold fundamentals remain extremely bullish. The technicals have been bearish for a while now, thanks to the gold price manipulators.


It certainly appears the Bush Administration is doing ALL it can to keep the financial markets in order ahead of the early November elections. The big question is what happens when they are over. My bet is their gold rig falls apart and so does the US stock market. The holes in the dyke are multiplying. The Working Group on Financial markets can only keep the ocean out for so long.

Then again, the economic and financial market news is so bad, the markets might even blow out before the elections.

That is why it is so important to understand what the manipulation of the gold price is all about. Without that understanding FIRST, analysis of gold`s price and market action is a waste of time. Most of the gold market analysis is a bunch of noise. In the end, it will prove to be the reason so many investors miss the incredible gold move ahead of us.

www.lemetropolecafe.com
Avatar
25.10.02 17:03:57
Beitrag Nr. 2.628 ()
The John Brimelow Report

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.30, PM $2.89, with world gold at $311.30 and $310.80. Well above legal import point. The persistence of physical demand around $310 is now a commonplace amongst commentators.

Although a peculiarly strong yen and uninteresting $US gold price are said to have discouraged Japanese TOCOM participants, open interest did rise the equivalent of 979 Comex contracts on Wednesday on buoyant volume: 28,045 Comex equivalent (51% up on Tuesday). The active contract declined 9 yen, however, and $US gold slipped 60c during Tokyo hours. In general, Japan is particularly inscrutable at present. (NY traded 23,075 contracts yesterday: open interest dropped 2,286 lots.)


Easily the most useful remarks on gold today are found in the recent SG "Weekly Precious Metals" report, courtesy Ross Norman’s invaluable site http://www.thebulliondesk.com/default.asp?load=true .

Of course, dealing with a source compromised by being part of a front rank bullion dealer (i.e. a plausible Central Bank counter party) some Kremlinology is required.

The statement that:

"Even when… (for example, in September)…the idea of systemic risk could reasonably be put forward, gold was never able to attract investors seeking an asset of last resort… the most convincing evidence that this risk was not really present in the market mindset remains the central banks` decision to continue lending their gold reserves at derisory lending rates (at the short end of the curve) while, by definition, even low systemic risk should have made the credit risks dissuasive."

What this means in English, of course is that when the entire market was terrified for very sweeping reasons last month, Central Bank lending saturated the gold market such that rates were driven below levels rational on any commercial economic criteria. (In fact, deposit rates were negative at one point: lenders were paying depositors to take gold.) See http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/socgen/PMW2110.pdf .

No wonder the equities took fright!

JB
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25.10.02 17:08:35
Beitrag Nr. 2.629 ()
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25.10.02 17:19:38
Beitrag Nr. 2.630 ()


http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021025/autos_ford_ratings_4.html

Reuters

S&P Cuts Ford to Two Notches Above `Junk`

Friday October 25, 10:27 am ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Standard & Poor`s on Friday cut its ratings on the long-term debt of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F - News) and its finance arm to two notches above "junk" status, saying it is concerned about the prospects for the No. 2 U.S. automaker`s restructuring.

S&P cut the ratings one notch, to "BBB," its second-lowest investment grade, from "BBB-plus." It affirmed its "A-2" ratings on the short-term debt of Ford and Ford Motor Credit Co.


"Ford has to improve its cost position and beef up its product offerings," Scott Sprinzen, an S&P auto analyst, said in an interview. "The reality of the marketplace is that it has to stay competitive on pricing, which is a moving target."

Ford, based in Dearborn, Michigan, did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

S&P`s outlook for Ford is "negative," meaning another rating cut is more likely than an upgrade. Ford had $162 billion of debt as of Sept. 30, S&P said. Downgrades often boost borrowing costs.

CUT EXPECTED

Many industry analysts had expected the downgrade.

"I was not at all surprised," said Steven Bocamazo, vice president in fixed-income research at Loomis, Sayles & Co. in Boston. "Ford has offered generous incentives to move its products, and people are concerned that consumers may soon be fatigued of these incentives, or the economy may keep people from making big-ticket purchases."


S&P, announcing the downgrade, cited falling demand and market share and increased pricing pressure, especially from larger rival General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - News).

It said it may cut Ford`s ratings again if it doubts that the automaker will see some sustained earnings improvement -- and break even on a pre-tax basis in its auto operations apart from Ford Credit -- in 2003.

Sprinzen also said Ford`s pension liabilities are worrisome. "Pension liabilities are a major factor in our downgrade," he said. "The current rating takes into account the need over the long term for Ford to devote significant resources to its pension fund."

Moody`s Investors Service rates Ford`s and Ford Credit`s senior unsecured debt "Baa1" and "A3," respectively, two notches and one notch above S&P. The Moody`s outlook is "negative." Moody`s rates the companies` short-term debt "P-2," equal to S&P`s "A-2."

Ford shares fell 24 cents to $8.62 in early New York Stock Exchange trade. The shares began the year at $15.72.

Immediately after the downgrade, Ford Motor Credit Co.`s 7.25 percent note maturing in 2011 yielded about 5.5 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries, up from 5.35 percentage points earlier, a trader said. Price quotations on Ford`s asset-backed debt were not immediately available.
Avatar
25.10.02 17:45:22
Beitrag Nr. 2.631 ()
TG

Konntest Du die Sache mit dem Silberverbrauch beim Digitalausdruck klären ??

Du hattest doch meine Angaben angezweifelt.
Avatar
25.10.02 18:14:05
Beitrag Nr. 2.632 ()
Aus:
http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/150302.htm


Quelle:
»http://www.cash.ch/index.cfm?kat=5&id=23


Ungleichheit kommt vor dem Fall

In den USA kompensiert der Kreditmarkt die steigende Ungleichheit der Einkommen.

iDie Vereinigten Staaten sind ein Land mit grossen Einkommensunterschieden. Punkto Konsum herrschen Zustände fast wie im Sozialstaat. Doch die Umverteilungsmaschinerie der USA hat einen Haken - sie beruht weit gehend auf Krediten.
WERNER VONTOBEL

«Ja», meint Professor James K. Galbraith von der Texas University auf Anfrage, «man kann hier durchaus von Kreditsozialismus sprechen. Die Kreditmärkte kompensieren die Ungleichheit im Konsum, doch dieses System hat einen wahrscheinlich tödlichen Mangel, es ist nicht nachhaltig.» Galbraith, einer der weltweit führenden Spezialisten auf dem Gebiet der Verteilung, ist umgekehrt überzeugt, dass die USA in den letzten Jahrzehnten nur deshalb relativ hohe Wachstumsraten erzielen konnten, «weil die Markteinkommen in hohem Masse umverteilt werden».

60 Prozent der US-Haushalte schreiben tiefrote Zahlen

Die nackten Zahlen bestätigen dies eindrücklich. Gemäss der Konsumstatistik von 2000 konsumieren die ärmeren 60 Prozent der US-Haushalte Güter und Dienstleistungen im Wert von 26 400 Dollar. Ihre durchschnittlichen Jahreseinnahmen betragen jedoch bloss 19 100 Dollar. Sie bestreiten also gut einen Drittel ihrer Ausgaben auf Pump oder aus dem Vermögen oder mit Hilfe von Zuwendungen von den reicheren 40 Prozent der Haushalte, die im Schnitt rund 21 000 Dollar mehr einnehmen, als sie für Konsumzwecke ausgeben. Würde diese Umverteilung aus irgendeinem Grund gestoppt, so gingen der US-Wirtschaft mit einem Schlag gut zehn Prozent des gesamten Privatkonsums verloren. Eine tiefe Rezession wäre die Folge.

Umso erstaunlicher ist es, dass diese Umverteilung à l`américaine bisher relativ wenig Beachtung gefunden hat. So weiss man beispielsweise nicht genau, wie denn die ärmeren Haushalte die Lücke zwischen Einnahmen und Ausgaben genau finanzieren. Offenbar spielen dabei sozialstaatliche Einrichtungen eine weit grössere Rolle, als in Europa gemeinhin angenommen wird. So schätzt etwa eine Studie aus dem Jahre 1997, dass von den jährlichen Einkommensschwankungen der Haushalte im Schnitt etwa 10 Prozent durch staatliche Transfereinkommen und weitere rund 30 Prozent durch die zu- und abnehmenden Steuern ausgeglichen werden.

Schliesslich greifen die US-Haushalte in hohem Masse auf ihre Ersparnisse zurück, wenn die Einkommen aus irgendeinem Grund zurückgehen. 25 bis 40 Prozent der Einkommensschwankungen werden auf diese Weise kompensiert. Zu welchen Höchstleistungen die amerikanische Umverteilungsmaschinerie fähig ist, haben die Ökonomen Dirk Krueger (Harvard) und Fabrizio Perri (New York University) in einer soeben veröffentlichten Langzeitstudie * festgestellt. Danach sind die Einkommensunterschiede zwischen den USA-Haushalten und gleichzeitig auch die Einkommensschwankungen der einzelnen Haushalte in den letzten 25 Jahren sehr viel grösser geworden. Während 1973 die reichsten zehn Prozent der Haushalte (ohne Rentnerhaushalte) noch fünfmal mehr verdienten als die (in jenem Jahr) zu den ärmsten zehn Prozent gehörenden Haushalte, betrug das Verhältnis 1998 bereits mehr als 9 zu 1. Betrachtet man jedoch statt der Einkommen den Konsum der gleichen Haushaltsgruppen, so stellt man fest, dass die Unterschiede erstens deutlich geringer waren - nämlich 3,1 zu 1 anno 1973 - und dass sich dieses Verhältnis auch kaum verändert hat. Es betrug 1998 «nur» 3,35 zu 1.

Gemäss Krueger und Perri ist die immer grössere Lücke zwischen Einkommen und Konsum zu einem grossen Teil durch eine Zunahme der privaten Bankkredite geschlossen worden. In der Tat: Mitte 2002 waren die privaten Haushalte mit insgesamt 8032 Milliarden Dollar verschuldet. Das sind 111 Prozent der jährlichen Konsumausgaben. Anfang der Siebzigerjahre hat dieser Anteil noch 75 Prozent betragen, und er steigt dann ab Mitte der Achtzigerjahre steil an. Diese Kredite und insbesondere die Konsumkredite von zurzeit rund 1750 Milliarden Dollar beruhen auf der Hoffnung, dass die verschuldeten Haushalte irgendwann einmal wieder mehr verdienen, als sie ausgeben.

Nur das reichste Fünftel kann noch Geld zur Seite legen

In der Tat schwanken die Einkommen der einzelnen Haushalte in den USA sehr stark, doch mittlerweile muss man schon zu den einkommensstärksten 20 Prozent der Bevölkerung gehören, um in nennenswertem Umfang Schulden aus dem laufenden Einkommen zurückzuzahlen.

Der Kreditsozialismus ist deshalb ein Modell auf Zeit. Sobald die Zinsen steigen, bricht das ganze Kartenhaus zusammen. Im Schnitt zahlen die US-Haushalte heute rund 14 Prozent (also fast zwei Monatslöhne) ihres verfügbaren Einkommens für Zinsen auf Konsum- und Hypokrediten. Vor 22 Jahren waren es auch schon 13 Prozent. Diese 13 bis 14 Prozent dürften in etwa die Schmerzgrenze darstellen. Sie wird heute nur deshalb nicht deutlich überschritten, weil die Zinsen auf einem historischen Tief liegen. Hypotheken kosten heute im Schnitt noch 6,3 Prozent. 1982 waren es noch gut 16 Prozent. Wer ein Auto kaufen will, erhält den nötigen Kredit fast gratis, nämlich für lächerliche 2,2 Prozent. Die Rückzahlungsfrist beträgt fünf Jahre und die mittlere Belehnung 96 Prozent. (Man muss also gerade noch vier Prozent bar anzahlen.) All dies sind historische Tiefstwerte.

Wenn sich die Zinsen nach oben bewegen, wird man schon sehr bald feststellen, dass der echte Wohlfahrtsstaat doch nicht so viel schlechter war als der amerikanische Kapitalmarktsozialismus.

* Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory, Dirk Krueger, Fabrizio Perri, NBER Working Paper No. w9202, September 2002.

«Man kann von einem Kreditsozialismus sprechen. Doch dieses System hat wahrscheinlich einen tödlichen Mangel.
Avatar
25.10.02 19:46:09
Beitrag Nr. 2.633 ()


http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News

10/25 11:27

Citigroup Plans to Fire 1,200 Bankers, People Say

By George Stein


New York, Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to fire more than 1,200 employees in its investment and corporate banking units to help counter a revenue slump from merger advice, stock sales and securities trading, company executives said.

For the past month, top managers at Citigroup`s Salomon Smith Barney division have been adding names to their lists of people to be fired on the orders of Salomon Chairman Charles Prince, they said. Citigroup employs close to 60,000 people in its corporate and investment bank businesses, an executive said.

``They are cutting their costs in a way that they will improve their margins when volumes pick up,`` said Marshall Front, who manages $1.8 billion at Front Barnett Associates LLC, which owns about $50 million in Citigroup shares. ``As an investor, I`m pleased.``

Retrenchment at the world`s largest financial services institution comes after it already cut at least 3,600 positions in the corporate and investment banking division this year through Sept. 30 and another 2,000 last year, according to a company filing and a company executive. Wall Street firms have cut 61,000 jobs since employment in the industry peaked a year and a half ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

``We continue to look at areas that don`t have a lot of activity and see whether it makes sense to manage down the staff,`` Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Todd Thomson told analysts on Oct. 15. ``We hadn`t made any big announcements recently about that but continue to see smaller, if you will, reductions in parts of the business.``

Mergers, Corporate Finance

The cuts will include more than 200 investment bankers who are to be fired over the next few weeks, according to the New York Times, which reported the planned job cuts earlier today. About 10 percent to 15 percent of specialists in mergers and corporate finance will be affected, the newspaper said.


Cuts in fixed-income groups were announced on Monday, executives said. Many firing notices are likely to be sent next Tuesday, they said.

``We continue a process of targeted reductions throughout the organization that reflects the market realities and an ongoing review of our business,`` Salomon Smith Barney spokeswoman Arda Nazerian said.

Third-quarter profit in Citigroup`s corporate and investment banking division fell 7 percent to $1.2 billion from the year-ago quarter. It`s down 20 percent from the third quarter of 2000.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chairman William Harrison said Oct. 16 that the second largest U.S. bank would cut more than 2,000 investment-banking jobs. Credit Suisse Group said it`s eliminating 6,550 jobs at its Credit Suisse First Boston investment bank and as many as 1,500 other positions in Switzerland.

Citigroup cut compensation and benefits at its corporate and investment banking unit 9 percent to $2.29 billion in the third quarter, compared with the year-ago period. It spent 42 cents of every dollar the units earned last quarter in compensation and benefits.

Citigroup shares, which have declined 26 percent this year, rose 7 cents to $34.74 at 11:24 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
Avatar
25.10.02 20:16:17
Beitrag Nr. 2.634 ()
Das Problem ist nicht A. Greenspan, sondern die "private" Federal Reserve Bank, *FED*, die dringend von den USA, durch eine neu zu gründende staatliche Zentralbank, ersetzt werden sollte!

Gruss

ThaiGuru





http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

Top Financial News

10/25 00:09

Greenspan Loses 1990s Consensus He Had Within Federal Reserve

By Brendan Murray and Craig Torres


Washington, Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- As the longest bear market since 1939-1941 threatens investor confidence, some Federal Reserve Board members have begun to question Alan Greenspan.

Greenspan, 76 and in his 16th year as Fed chairman, has lost the unanimous support of his 11 cohorts on the Federal Open Market Committee, the group that guides U.S. interest rates. In September, Fed Governor Edward Gramlich and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer broke ranks and urged Greenspan to cut rates as a way of spurring growth. It was the first time since 1998 that two FOMC members questioned Greenspan`s judgment.

Meantime, a new governor, Ben Bernanke, has proposed the Fed adopt a target for inflation to help steer monetary policy -- a step the chairman opposes. Bernanke says the Fed must prepare for Greenspan`s eventual departure: His chairmanship expires in June 2004, when he would be 78.


The next 20 months may redefine Greenspan`s legacy. Appointed by President Ronald Reagan in 1987, Greenspan piloted the economy through a record peacetime expansion from 1991 to March 2001. That decade of growth helped trigger a record advance in U.S. stocks: From March 1990 to March 2000, the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index rose 359 percent.

Bear Market

Now, Greenspan confronts the longest bear market in six decades. Since March 2000, the value of U.S. stocks has fallen by about $8.9 trillion. In recent months, Fed board members have grown increasingly concerned that the market rout might threaten the economic recovery now under way.


At an Aug. 13 meeting, FOMC members concluded that ``additional deterioration in financial markets`` might undercut growth and thereby require the Fed to reduce rates, according to published minutes from the meeting. Many investors are betting the Fed will reduce its key federal funds rate to 1.5 percent from 1.75 percent at its Nov. 6 or Dec. 10 meeting.

Milton Friedman, winner of the 1976 Nobel prize in economics, says Greenspan`s legacy is secure. Under Greenspan, inflation has averaged 2.4 percent, the lowest level since William McChesney Martin ran the Fed from 1951 to 1970. Unemployment has averaged 5.5 percent, also the lowest since the Martin years.

``There`s no doubt, in my opinion, that Greenspan has the best record of any Fed chairman in history,`` Friedman says.

[/b][/u]Bartender in Chief[/b][/u]

Such an accolade aside, Paul McCulley, who manages $90 billion at Pacific Investment Management Co., says Greenspan helped inflate the late 1990s market bubble. While the Fed chief used rate changes to suppress inflation and foster growth, he failed to use other tools -- such as margin requirements -- to check investors` stock euphoria. Now, the U.S. may confront a deflationary spiral unless Greenspan lets inflation accelerate slightly and he asks Congress to embrace increased federal spending, McCulley says.

``History will treat Mr. Greenspan unkindly as the bartender in chief for the New Age economy, which begat the New Age bubble,`` he says.

Greenspan has responded to such criticism by saying the Fed had no way of reining in stocks. ``The notion that a well-timed incremental tightening could have been calibrated to prevent the late 1990s bubble is almost surely an illusion,`` Greenspan said in an Aug. 30 speech at the Kansas City Fed`s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He also dismissed the notion that the Fed could have checked stocks by raising margin requirements, or the amount of money investors must deposit with brokerages in order to buy stock on credit.

Bursting the Bubble

That`s not the way Greenspan portrayed events at an FOMC meeting on Sept. 24, 1996. ``I guarantee that if you want to get rid of the bubble, whatever it is, that will do it,`` Greenspan said, according to the meeting transcripts.

The Fed did not raise the requirements -- and stocks soared higher still. Sean Corrigan, a director at Capital Insight.co.uk, a financial research firm in Rochester, England, says of the `90s stock boom, ``Greenspan was cheering it all along.``

Transcripts from that 1996 meeting show that Greenspan was focused largely on inflation and workers` productivity. At the time, economic growth had accelerated to a rate of 6.8 percent, its fastest pace since 1987. Several FOMC members urged Greenspan to raise rates.

Greenspan pointed out that while wages were climbing, so were corporate profits. To him, that suggested productivity was rising, which in turn suggested the economy could grow even faster without sparking inflation. In the end, the board sided with Greenspan, and the Fed left rates unchanged.

Consent

``I will be supporting your recommendation based on what I think is a very well earned reputation of success,`` then Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey told Greenspan. Lindsey is now economic adviser to President George W. Bush.


Greenspan`s hunch about productivity proved right: From 1996 to 2001, productivity, as measured by the Commerce Department, rose by an average 2.3 percent a year compared with the 1.4 percent average pace of the previous 25 years.

Robert Solow, winner of the 1987 Nobel prize in economics, says Greenspan so dominates Fed decision making that investors may lose faith in the central bank once he`s gone. Greenspan has created the impression that a single ``supreme personality`` calls the shots at the Fed, he says.

Bernanke, who became a Fed governor this past July, says setting an inflation target of 1 percent to 2 percent would help the Fed retain the credibility it has built up under Greenspan and his predecessor, Paul Volcker. Among major central banks, only the Fed and the Bank of Japan haven`t specified their inflation goals.

`Art, Not Science`

Greenspan has opposed inflation targeting. For him, monetary policy is ``an art, not a science,`` says Edwin Truman, a former FOMC economist.

Wayne Angell, who served as a Fed governor under both Volcker and Greenspan, says Greenspan`s insistence on unanimity has weakened the Fed. Before Gramlich voted against the chairman this past September, none of the six Fed governors on the FOMC had broken ranks since November 1995.

``In my view, it`s something of a dereliction of responsibility,`` Angell says. On average, Greenspan has faced just 2.7 dissenting votes a year since 1994. From 1983 to 1994, that figure was eight.

No clear front-runner has emerged to succeed Greenspan. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Parry says he doubts his boss will step down before June 2004. ``I`ll make a bet that I`ll retire before he does,`` says Parry, who`s scheduled to leave the Fed in May 2004.

Successor

John Taylor, 55, Treasury undersecretary of international affairs, was the favorite to succeed Greenspan in a February 2002 poll of more than 50 economists by the newsletter Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Other candidates named in that survey included New York Federal Reserve Bank President William McDonough, 68, and Robert Rubin, 64, former Treasury secretary and chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup Inc.


Whoever takes the helm will inevitably be compared to Greenspan, who remains widely respected in Washington and on Wall Street. ``We all live in fear of what will happen when the magician is replaced by a mere mortal,`` Stephen Cecchetti, former director of research at the New York Federal Reserve Bank, wrote in a December 1999 essay on Greenspan. To some at the Fed, even Greenspan seems fallible these days.
Avatar
25.10.02 20:36:52
Beitrag Nr. 2.635 ()
Quelle:
»http://www.cash.ch/index.cfm?kat=5&id=23


Ungleichheit kommt vor dem Fall

In den USA kompensiert der Kreditmarkt die steigende Ungleichheit der Einkommen.

iDie Vereinigten Staaten sind ein Land mit grossen Einkommensunterschieden. Punkto Konsum herrschen Zustände fast wie im Sozialstaat. Doch die Umverteilungsmaschinerie der USA hat einen Haken - sie beruht weit gehend auf Krediten.
WERNER VONTOBEL

«Ja», meint Professor James K. Galbraith von der Texas University auf Anfrage, «man kann hier durchaus von Kreditsozialismus sprechen. Die Kreditmärkte kompensieren die Ungleichheit im Konsum, doch dieses System hat einen wahrscheinlich tödlichen Mangel, es ist nicht nachhaltig.» Galbraith, einer der weltweit führenden Spezialisten auf dem Gebiet der Verteilung, ist umgekehrt überzeugt, dass die USA in den letzten Jahrzehnten nur deshalb relativ hohe Wachstumsraten erzielen konnten, «weil die Markteinkommen in hohem Masse umverteilt werden».

60 Prozent der US-Haushalte schreiben tiefrote Zahlen

Die nackten Zahlen bestätigen dies eindrücklich. Gemäss der Konsumstatistik von 2000 konsumieren die ärmeren 60 Prozent der US-Haushalte Güter und Dienstleistungen im Wert von 26 400 Dollar. Ihre durchschnittlichen Jahreseinnahmen betragen jedoch bloss 19 100 Dollar. Sie bestreiten also gut einen Drittel ihrer Ausgaben auf Pump oder aus dem Vermögen oder mit Hilfe von Zuwendungen von den reicheren 40 Prozent der Haushalte, die im Schnitt rund 21 000 Dollar mehr einnehmen, als sie für Konsumzwecke ausgeben. Würde diese Umverteilung aus irgendeinem Grund gestoppt, so gingen der US-Wirtschaft mit einem Schlag gut zehn Prozent des gesamten Privatkonsums verloren. Eine tiefe Rezession wäre die Folge.

Umso erstaunlicher ist es, dass diese Umverteilung à l`américaine bisher relativ wenig Beachtung gefunden hat. So weiss man beispielsweise nicht genau, wie denn die ärmeren Haushalte die Lücke zwischen Einnahmen und Ausgaben genau finanzieren. Offenbar spielen dabei sozialstaatliche Einrichtungen eine weit grössere Rolle, als in Europa gemeinhin angenommen wird. So schätzt etwa eine Studie aus dem Jahre 1997, dass von den jährlichen Einkommensschwankungen der Haushalte im Schnitt etwa 10 Prozent durch staatliche Transfereinkommen und weitere rund 30 Prozent durch die zu- und abnehmenden Steuern ausgeglichen werden.

Schliesslich greifen die US-Haushalte in hohem Masse auf ihre Ersparnisse zurück, wenn die Einkommen aus irgendeinem Grund zurückgehen. 25 bis 40 Prozent der Einkommensschwankungen werden auf diese Weise kompensiert. Zu welchen Höchstleistungen die amerikanische Umverteilungsmaschinerie fähig ist, haben die Ökonomen Dirk Krueger (Harvard) und Fabrizio Perri (New York University) in einer soeben veröffentlichten Langzeitstudie * festgestellt. Danach sind die Einkommensunterschiede zwischen den USA-Haushalten und gleichzeitig auch die Einkommensschwankungen der einzelnen Haushalte in den letzten 25 Jahren sehr viel grösser geworden. Während 1973 die reichsten zehn Prozent der Haushalte (ohne Rentnerhaushalte) noch fünfmal mehr verdienten als die (in jenem Jahr) zu den ärmsten zehn Prozent gehörenden Haushalte, betrug das Verhältnis 1998 bereits mehr als 9 zu 1. Betrachtet man jedoch statt der Einkommen den Konsum der gleichen Haushaltsgruppen, so stellt man fest, dass die Unterschiede erstens deutlich geringer waren - nämlich 3,1 zu 1 anno 1973 - und dass sich dieses Verhältnis auch kaum verändert hat. Es betrug 1998 «nur» 3,35 zu 1.

Gemäss Krueger und Perri ist die immer grössere Lücke zwischen Einkommen und Konsum zu einem grossen Teil durch eine Zunahme der privaten Bankkredite geschlossen worden. In der Tat: Mitte 2002 waren die privaten Haushalte mit insgesamt 8032 Milliarden Dollar verschuldet. Das sind 111 Prozent der jährlichen Konsumausgaben. Anfang der Siebzigerjahre hat dieser Anteil noch 75 Prozent betragen, und er steigt dann ab Mitte der Achtzigerjahre steil an. Diese Kredite und insbesondere die Konsumkredite von zurzeit rund 1750 Milliarden Dollar beruhen auf der Hoffnung, dass die verschuldeten Haushalte irgendwann einmal wieder mehr verdienen, als sie ausgeben.

Nur das reichste Fünftel kann noch Geld zur Seite legen

In der Tat schwanken die Einkommen der einzelnen Haushalte in den USA sehr stark, doch mittlerweile muss man schon zu den einkommensstärksten 20 Prozent der Bevölkerung gehören, um in nennenswertem Umfang Schulden aus dem laufenden Einkommen zurückzuzahlen.

Der Kreditsozialismus ist deshalb ein Modell auf Zeit. Sobald die Zinsen steigen, bricht das ganze Kartenhaus zusammen. Im Schnitt zahlen die US-Haushalte heute rund 14 Prozent (also fast zwei Monatslöhne) ihres verfügbaren Einkommens für Zinsen auf Konsum- und Hypokrediten. Vor 22 Jahren waren es auch schon 13 Prozent. Diese 13 bis 14 Prozent dürften in etwa die Schmerzgrenze darstellen. Sie wird heute nur deshalb nicht deutlich überschritten, weil die Zinsen auf einem historischen Tief liegen. Hypotheken kosten heute im Schnitt noch 6,3 Prozent. 1982 waren es noch gut 16 Prozent. Wer ein Auto kaufen will, erhält den nötigen Kredit fast gratis, nämlich für lächerliche 2,2 Prozent. Die Rückzahlungsfrist beträgt fünf Jahre und die mittlere Belehnung 96 Prozent. (Man muss also gerade noch vier Prozent bar anzahlen.) All dies sind historische Tiefstwerte.

Wenn sich die Zinsen nach oben bewegen, wird man schon sehr bald feststellen, dass der echte Wohlfahrtsstaat doch nicht so viel schlechter war als der amerikanische Kapitalmarktsozialismus.

* Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory, Dirk Krueger, Fabrizio Perri, NBER Working Paper No. w9202, September 2002.

«Man kann von einem Kreditsozialismus sprechen. Doch dieses System hat wahrscheinlich einen tödlichen Mangel.
Avatar
25.10.02 20:37:58
Beitrag Nr. 2.636 ()
sorry, sah nicht, daß der Artikel schon da war
Avatar
25.10.02 21:59:45
Beitrag Nr. 2.637 ()






http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/10/25/38643.html

10:30 2002-10-25

Bush Offers Putin 10 Billion for Saddam’s Head

If Russia stops cooperating with Iraq, Russia could account on economical aid in sum of 10 billion dollars


Worthless statements of some politicians who try to prove that negotiations between the US and Russia do not have a “mercenary” character seem to have been destroyed. Americans intend to offer 10 billion dollars on credit if Russia gives up its interest in Iraqi oil and stops supporting Hussein. If Russia stops cooperating with Iraq, Russia could count on economic aid in sum of 10 billion dollars. This was reported by the Associated Press.


The agency, referring anonymous sources in US State Department, reports that the US Congress and the White House are considering the possibility of a transfer agreement with Russia in sum of 10 billion dollars. Moreover, Moscow could also gain easier access to the US market.

George Bush and Vladimir Putin are supposed to discuss this possible bargain in the nearest future. And the latest event in Moscow will only strengthen the US president’s position. It would be stupid to bargain about the sum when our countries have common enemies. And it will be difficult for Vladimir Putin to say anything against this plan to his US colleague.

That is right. However, if the Americans topple the Iraqi government, oil prices will drop, and Iraqi oil will be fully controlled by US oil companies. Therefore, the Russian economy will collapse as it never collapsed before. The 1998 default will look like small trouble. It cannot be excluded that, in this case (just to restrain the country’s integrity and to stifle internal unrest), the Russian government will be forced to hand over authority to special services and military. Democracy will forgotten (at least, for some time). Circumstances like this are foreseen in the Russian Constitution. Therefore, it is questionable whether Putin’s regime needs the US as an ally or it prefers Arab investments in exchange to a strict anti-American position. The US seems not to think about what might happen. US political experts continue to believe that everything is under control and that the main controller is US State Department. However, is this really the case?

In other words, 10 billion, all the more on credit, is not the price for Russia to give up its national interests and sacrifice its citizens’ lives, born and not born, even if we currently have common enemies with the Us. If not for the liberal cries of western community about “human rights” (What about the right of the Al-Qaida gunmen and Chechen terrorists to kill innocent people?) and continual warnings of the US establishment, the Chechnya problem would have been solved long ago.

Why should Russia prostitute itself? And what can 10 billion bring? It would be not enough even to pay off Russia’s debts. And 10 billion would be sufficient only to buy uniforms for and feed the Russian Army To be honest, it is stupid that these negotiations are even possible.

Dmitry Slobodyanyuk
PRAVDA.Ru

Translated by Vera Solovieva
Avatar
25.10.02 22:45:07
Beitrag Nr. 2.638 ()


http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

The Traveler (10/25/02; 12:49:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 88177)

The Continuing Inflation / Deflation Debate

Inflation has begun for assets and services not typically supported by debt. Notice the price charts of oil or natural gas lately? Health care costs and college tuition are certainly rising as well.

Deflation is also here and continuing for assets whose "price/value" is supported by/determined by debt. The driver is collateral foreclosures and fire-sales.

The Enron building in Houston cost $250 million to construct and just sold for $103 million. BIG DEFLATION of that asset price. With that cost basis, Intell can rent space for say $15 SF and break-even after debt service while all other Houston CBD building owners must get say $25 SF. Who has the leasing and economic advantage? Expect CBD rental rates in Houston and elsewhere to decline (deflate) due to less demand from closed businesses and ample supply of existing space.

Warren Buffett`s energy company bought two pipelines from Dynergy and Williams at fire sale prices. DYN loaned Enron $2.5 billion for the Northern Pipeline - must have thought it was worth at least $4B (62% LTV). Buffett bought the 10,000 mile operating pipeline that would take 7+ years to replicate for $1 billion. He will now receive the same regulatory transport rate (say 20 cents/MCF) that competitors will receive yet they have twice to three times more cost basis in their pipelines. The asset price decreased but the REGULATORY transport rate will not. What a coup for Buffett.



Austin, TX has better than 100 homes listed on MLS with asking prices over $1 million. With no new Dell-ionaires being minted, must not the prices fall (deflate) to clear all needed sales?

With nearly a 1,000 homes being posted monthly at our courthouse steps again, aren`t local home prices falling (deflating) and losses on mortgage debt being written-off? Aren`t individual Chapter 7`s approaching the 2 million filings again?

Isn`t the total DEBT of companies filing BK higher now than ever before? Aren`t downgrades exceeding upgrades at Moody`s at a higher ratio than ever before? The assets of BK companies will be sold from stockholders to existing creditors and/or new owners for deflated prices. The new owners will like Buffett have a big cost advantage over industry competitors.

The hedge funds that bought most of WorldCom`s debt for say 25 cents on the dollar are after WorldCom`s existing fiber optic backbone. They want to do a debt for equity conversion, own 80% of the NEWCO and then go compete against the other telecoms. Like the Enron building, NEWCO will only need say 50% of the current market price to breakeven while SBC and others will need 110%. Who will survive this "sweating" to quote J D Rockefeller. Expect telecom service prices and the stock prices of telecom providers to fall (deflate).

Want to buy a 747 or 767? United would sell you as many as you want for less than their net carrying value. When they go into BK and come out with restructured debt and better union contracts (ala Continental), will not United II be able to deeply discount (deflate) ticket prices and still make a profit. Of course the rest of the industry will suffer from this "reckless" pricing.

In a monetary sense, deflation by definition is always and everywhere a contraction in the amount of currency and CREDIT in the economy/banking system. At present few creditors are ADDING to the supply of money/credit ("pushing on a string") and many debtors are killing $5 of currency/credit for each $1 of debt repaid or WRITTEN-OFF. Remember our system without a 1:1 gold standard is a fractional banking system.

So as I have consistently forecast, severe deflation comes first in response to natural economic and behavioral laws followed in time by accelerated inflation caused by panicked monetary policy.

In the most extreme example, the FED prints "$1 million bills" for say $1,000 of paper, ink and labor per bill and pays off all obligations of the US government (monitizes the federal debt) and buys every piece of paper asset offered by nervous creditors "down to your shoestrings" as wise Sir Douglas once said. Recall that the FED has even discussed buying gold mines at their committee meetings. These actions will keep the notational value of $35 trillion in US$ denominated debt stable BUT not the purchasing power of the debt. Is that smoke I smell in that paper pile?

On an individual level, one must be able to withstand the deflationary "sweating" related to his or her mortgaged asset (through continued and timely debt payments despite not having a job or access to funds due to a "banking holiday") before he or she will later reap the bonanza of the asset price rising dramatically (in notational price only due to the aforementioned debt monitization) and the fixed rate mortgage being inflated away.

This is the broad economic scenario that powers gold to unthinkable heights. Are you a giant yet?
Avatar
25.10.02 23:00:19
Beitrag Nr. 2.639 ()


http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

October 25, 2002 (usagold.com)


Spot Gold in New York settled higher at $313.10 an ounce, up $2.90 an ounce from yesterday’s close. The price of gold bounced higher as a carry-over from yesterday’s late stock market plunge. Note that the trading pits close at about mid-day while the stock markets continue to trade. "We`re going right off the Dow Jones from yesterday. We opened higher and we`re kind of just floating around right now," a floor broker said. The stock market is nervous about a double-dip recession and stocks initially fell on the news, driving some investors into safe-havens such as gold.

"The market is at risk of a further squeeze into next week," said analysts at J.P Morgan in a report. "We opened firm anyway," said a commission house broker. "But when durables came out and stock market futures went down, gold definitely popped up to that $314.60 area. So there was a little assist from durable goods." The broker said there was solid resistance around $315, in front of stop-loss buy orders that could accelerate the rally if gold moves above the $315.50 area. Dealers said the fact that gold was oversold Thursday explained the upward bias Friday morning, but acknowledged that the macroeconomic landscape would otherwise suggest weakness in gold prices. "Normally a higher stock market and a firmer dollar would be bad for gold, but it seems the trade want to buy gold this morning so that`s what`s going to happen," said a floor dealer at a precious metals trader and refiner.

"The current gold market is being driven by producer repurchases of gold, falling global supply, increasing investment demand, the clear downward trend of the U.S. dollar, the incredibly volatile and uncertain global equities market and the increasing risks of war in many `hot spots` in the world," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management said in a note to clients Friday.


London gold was fixed this afternoon at $313.00 an ounce, up from $312.30 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold has picked itself back up having had key support levels punctured in New York, and the market should remain steady in coming sessions, analysts said on Friday. "We are increasingly of the opinion that the immediate pressure from speculative long liquidation has eased," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg. Gold rose for its first session in three and to its highest price in more than a week as equity markets declined across Europe and the U.S., spurring investors to seek a haven. ``Equity markets remain a key driver at present and we expect a near-term trading range of $310 to $315 an ounce,`` Howard Patten, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said in a note to investors. Gold was also buoyed by a rise in the euro against the dollar. The euro gained as much as 0.5 percent against the dollar, its first advance in three sessions.

Earlier gold closed at $312.15 an ounce on Friday in Hong Kong, up 50 cents from Thursday`s close of $311.65. Spot gold traded in a tight range Friday in Asia, rising slightly in a low-volume lackluster market, a Sydney trader said. The only interest in gold is currency driven, he said. "The metal itself is sidelined," range-bound, waiting for some new impetus from the U.S. stock market, he said. “People are getting bullish. All the factors, everything ...seems to favour gold," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "The stock market is down...the dollar is looking shaky...," Cheung said.

Want to know just how tight the physical gold supply is?

The following shows that the gold supply cannot possibly hold up to any real demand and the market remains vulnerable to a raider with deep pockets (well maybe not very deep): Goldcorp is an arch opportunist though so it should not come as too much of a surprise, especially since this is not this year’s first adventure. In a lengthy interview with Mineweb, due for publication in the next fortnight, CEO Robert McEwen admitted that the second quarter’s purchase of gold bullion at an average price of $323 per ounce was a test of the physical market.

“I was curious to see what the breadth of the market was,” he said, adding that he had inquired of a bullion bank how long it would take to acquire 20 tonnes of gold. The answer was two days, so he put in an order for just 6% of that tonnage and ended up waiting two weeks for delivery and suffering a 50% increase in the spread.

Plunging durable goods orders and growing consumer gloom raised new concerns about the U.S. economic recovery on Friday while housing offered a rare bright spot in the economic picture. Orders for costly and long-lasting durable goods posted their largest drop in 10 months in September while consumer sentiment in October hit its lowest level in nine years, according to two separate reports. Both were worse than had been expected by analysts. "These numbers are very disturbing," said Dana Johnson, head of research at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago.

"At best what you have here is a sputtering economy."

Prices of U.S. Treasury bonds climbed as the durable goods and confidence data prompted investors to revive bets that the Federal Reserve could ease rates before the year`s end. The Fed is next due to discuss monetary policy on Nov. 6. Analysts have been split about whether the central bank will move at that meeting but many say this data may now tilt the central bank in favor of a cut. "Fed officials are apt to be disturbed by this news, and therefore sentiment in favor of a 50-basis-point (half a percentage point) rate cut on Nov. 6 should be rising," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

OK, so how bad is it? The following is how it all breaks down –


Durable Goods Orders:


The Commerce Department said durable goods orders, which, along with next week`s employment numbers, are seen as pivotal for the Fed`s decision-making process, fell 5.9 percent in September, pulled down by weak demand for cars and aircraft equipment. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.0 percent. So much for zero percent financing. Orders for computer and electronic equipment fell 6.0 percent and communications equipment orders tumbled a record 52.0 percent. Machinery orders also declined and nondefense capital goods orders, seen as a proxy for capital spending by businesses, posted the largest drop since December 1997. Even without aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders were down by 6.6 percent. "Basically the business hesitation that started in June, has got worse. The business sector is already preparing themselves for a weaker outlook," said Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Financial Markets in New York. Pressure on corporate profits, accounting scandals and uncertainty over a potential war with Iraq are all undermining business confidence and making managers more cautious when making investment decisions.


Consumer Confidence:

With the boardroom mood still bleak, consumer spending -- which drives about two-thirds of the economy -- has been mainstay of the recovery from last year`s recession. But there are signs the confidence of U.S. consumers is also shaky. The University of Michigan`s final October consumer sentiment index fell to 80.6 from 86.1 in September. That was lower than forecasts for a reading of 81.1. "Consumer attitudes are very fragile. However, there is only scattered evidence that these poor assessments of economic conditions are having any negative influence on consumer spending," said Steven Wood, chief economist at FinancialOxygen in Walnut Creek, Calif. Some analysts are concerned that the flurry of spending spurred on by a wave of mortgage refinancing as consumers cashed in on home equity and rushed to the shopping malls may soon slow.


Housing:

Consumers appear to be running for the hills and are looking for any port in a storm. Many are headed for the inflating real estate bubble and others are mortgaging to the hilt to finance their free-wheeling spending habits. The Commerce Department said sales of new U.S. homes rose to a record level in September. New single-family home sales climbed 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million units last month from an upwardly revised 1.017 million unit pace in August. A separate report on Friday showed existing homes sales were strong last month as well. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 1.9 percent in September to a 5.40 million unit annual rate. Unfortunately housing prices cannot continue to grow and outpace income for very long and therein lies the final prick to pop this bubble. Any potential future rise in interest rates would also have the same result.


Comment:

Though the economic data releases today caught the professional analysts by surprise and hammered the stock markets in the early going only to have desperate institutional players buy in to prop up the indices with strong futures index buying in late trade, no one who has followed the markets and paid attention by digging into the footnotes are very much surprised at all, least of all those who read the pages of the USAGOLD forum.

I and others attempt to bring the more obscure but pertinent information to the attention of those who check in here at USAGOLD. Today’s data only confirms what we here already know. That professional analysts and strategists on Wall Street are openly discussing the desire and sentiment surrounding a possible 50 point basis cut in the prime rate when the Federal Reserve meets on November 6th only shows how desperate things have become.

It also drives another stake through the heart of the “Gold Carry Trade” vampire. That alone should accelerate more dehedging by gold producers and hedge funds, which is very positive for gold. Today we learn that South African gold producer Durban Roodpoort cleared the hedges from its books and yesterday Barrick Gold announced that they are reducing their hedge book after suffering tremendous losses.

Truly the “day of the hedger” (a.k.a. “gold short”) is dead and gone. Most surprising and what is not talked about in the mainstream media is how tight the physical gold supply really is. That is why I posted the blurb about Goldcorp CEO Robert McEwen’s attempt to purchase a mere 1.2 tons of gold to test the market. After being assured of readily available supply that could be delivered in hours, he was forced to wait weeks and only then he had pushed the price of gold to near recent highs and flushed out a lot of nervous weak hands. I say kudos and I give three cheers to Robert McEwen for exposing a weakness that the gold shorts and professional analysts would not like to have become public knowledge!

This also demonstrates the importance of holding physical gold as a part of ones portfolio for insurance against a faltering economy and weak equities market. As I have been saying – the fundamentals are extremely positive for a rising gold price.


- Jon H. Warner -


__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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25.10.02 23:43:00
Beitrag Nr. 2.640 ()
Post für dich, Thai
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26.10.02 10:10:48
Beitrag Nr. 2.641 ()


http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpBDWqaicrfaTtuLo…

October 25, 2002 17:29

Denver-Based Newmont Mining to Adjust Earnings for Past Three Years

By Steve Raabe, The Denver Post

Oct. 24--Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp. said Wednesday it will restate earnings from the past three years to comply with a new interpretation of accounting rules.

Newmont, the world`s largest gold-mining company, said the revision will result in a $6.5 million reduction in earnings.

The change stems from a 1999 transaction in which Newmont was paid $145 million for agreeing to deliver 483,000 ounces of gold to a buyer from 2005 through 2007. The 1999 deal allowed Newmont to pay off a bank loan at a lower cost than refinancing the loan at then-prevailing interest rates.


Newmont`s auditor in 1999, Arthur Andersen LLP, approved the original transaction. But Newmont replaced Andersen earlier this year after the auditor was accused of misconduct with scandal-plagued Enron Corp. and other companies.

Newmont`s new auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, reviewed the transaction and concluded that it should be booked as a loan instead of a forward gold purchase. As a result, Newmont must record the transaction as interest expense rather than a reduction in revenue.

"This is a technical accounting adjustment that we felt was necessary to make, but we don`t believe it`s significant to the company`s business," Newmont spokesman Doug Hock said.

Victor Flores, a gold-industry analyst with HSBC Securities in New York, termed the accounting revision "ridiculous."

"It`s a nonissue," Flores said. "This is a $10 billion company with nothing more than a rounding error. They`re going to spend more on accounting fees to fix this than the amount at issue."

The accounting revision will result in a widening of Newmont`s net losses by $3.6 million in 1999, $1.3 million in 2000 and $1.1 million for 2001. Net income for the first half of 2002 will be reduced by $500,000.

-----

To see more of The Denver Post, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.denverpost.com

(c) 2002, The Denver Post. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. NEM, ENRNQ,
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26.10.02 11:12:49
Beitrag Nr. 2.642 ()
Mega Gold Producer Pushing Gold Lower?

By

Dr. Charles K. LaMont, Ph.D.
Economist


If I had suggested a few years ago that gold`s worst enemy, in the birth of gold greatest ever bull market, was going to turn out to be a major gold producer you would have laughed. Well, this is no laughing matter. Barrick`s short position in gold via deferred spot hit a high of 17,000,000 ounces. That is a horrific amount of gold to feed into the market but they did. Clearly, all that gold ended up in Asian/Islamic hands but think what it would have meant to the market if Barrick did not do that. You would think that the huge problems of public companies concerning the use off balance sheet financing would have put Barrick on their guard but apparently not. The size of Barrick`s derivative financing qualifies as historically huge off balance sheet activity with immense risk. Barrick makes a big deal of being a company with almost one billion dollars in the treasury and no debt. Well, they have no debt on the books but they have huge obligations going forward as the price of gold rises. A short position of 17,000,000 oz., their recent high short position, means that they are short the equivalent of 170,000 Comex gold contracts, which makes or loses $17,000,000 for every dollar the gold price moves.

Therefore Barrick has 17,000,000 reasons for every dollar to want to see the value of their final product go down and down and down. It is amazing that gold is so strong as to be able to handle that kind of abuse.


Now that Newmont has properly accounted for the margin requirement of what is called "no margin" gold derivative by increasing their long-term debt, I believe Barrick will be forced to follow. Don`t fool yourself that you can have a position of short 170,000 equivalent of Comex contracts short on a handshake. That is an illusion. Yes, you can make a deal today to finance the difference between the price at which you sell and the market price forward but in time you will have to acknowledge that financing on your balance sheet. Yes, you can hide your losses in the billions by reducing the sale price of the gold sold forward on your books but eventually when you deliver the gold you will take "the hit" by selling at the reduced price.
This is as fancy a game of financial engineering as has ever existed. It is apparent to me that Barrick intends to do everything in their power to depress the gold price and will not stop. This is that stone wall gold has been hitting which seemed inexplicable. There is only one thing that can stop Barrick and that is stockholder`s rights. If Barrick shareholders do not "scream bloody murder" as they say, then they deserve what they are going to get, in my opinion. A shareholder of a gold company selects to be there to enjoy the increased value of their share in a bull market. This is an example of management running wild with a scenario very different to the one preferred by their shareholders. As far as buying Barrick on reaction, forget that. To buy Barrick is to vote for lower gold. The biggest risk here is that Barrick could push gold a bit too far and change the gold charts to bearish which would cause technicians and clients into a sell mode. Some may say "Thank God for Hung Fat & Dr. No" who will eventually "clean Barrick`s clock" in street terms. It must appear to some that Barrick`s ego is taller than Mt. Everest. In my view they are likely to be disgraced by what they are doing.

Barrick is a great company that could have gone to even greater heights but ABX has seemingly squared off against Asian/Islamic rivals. Has ABX declared war on the Gold Dinar? Here is where the fight between the North American/British interest and Asian/Islamic interest will be most intense, not on the ground in Iraq. Here is where the North American/British financial interest is most vulnerable.

You need to study the Islamic writings on gold as money to know that this battle is going to occur quite soon. This is going to be a battle to the financial death and that is what a public company is risking. One wonders if this is a product of a certain very influential Barrick director? Transparency sometimes appears without help. Is Barrick a Trojan horse inside our gold bull market walls?

www.lemetropolecafe.com
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26.10.02 11:23:34
Beitrag Nr. 2.643 ()
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER 26, October 2002 (#4)

An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.


Robert Chapman, Editor Vol. 6- No. 10- 4 ( 53pgs.)

Phone & Fax: 941 639 4756

E-mail: bif4653@comcast.net or info@intlforecaster.com

US MARKETS.

George W. Bush is deceiving the American people in order to wage war on Iraq, just as his father did when he invaded Panama. The administration is engaged in a massive disinformation campaign. The administration has proven no charges against Saddam Hussein. He attacks Iran and we supported him with supply biochemical agents, which he used against Iran after Iran used them against him. He attached Kuwait after our state department told him he could do so, and then we attacked him. He has not attacked another country in 10 years, nor has he been involved in any act of terrorism. Suspecting he has weapons of mass destruction does not prove he has them. He has filled most of the UN resolutions and even if he fulfilled them all, our President has told us he is going to overthrow him anyway. This information is fact yet our members of congress ignore it and have given Mr. Bush power to do exactly as he pleases. This isn’t irresponsible it’s criminal. Saddam Hussein may be a bad dictator, but it is a bad government that lies to its own people. If the criteria for invasion is he is preparing weapons of mass destruction, why don’t we attack North Korea, which has admitted they are close to having operable weapons of mass destruction?


Social Security recipients will receive the smallest increase in their benefit checks in four years in January, a pitiful 1.4% rise that translates into $13.00 a month. That will be offset by another increase in the monthly Medicare premium of $14.70 to $58.70.

Retirees don’t buy many things, they buy services and services costs have not come down as quickly as goods costs, so many will not be able to pay their bills. This comes as many have taken horrendous losses in their stock portfolios. Many 401(K)’s have lost 50-70% of their value. Worse than that certificates and bonds that paid four to nine percent now pay one to four percent, cutting income of the most conservative senior saver. On top of that medical costs are soaring and most don’t have drug coverage. A terrible state of affairs. Those of you who are veterans we advise you to register with the Veterans Administration. You can get prescriptions for $7.00 and the care has improved markedly in most locations.

Another American institution is shipping its production overseas. The nation’s last major shirt plant, C.F. Hathaway, in business for 165 years, will close and fire 235 workers in Waterville, Maine. This is a staggering economic blow to the area after having lost G.H. Bass and Cole Haan, which shut down in 1998-99 and the Dexter shoe plant that closed late last year putting 475 people out of work. You are watching the destruction of our entire manufacturing base and the demise of the American economy by elitist transnational corporations.

It started out as a done deal but because of outraged public opinion Napoleon Bush’s plan for an invasion of Iraq and its occupation is running into stiff resistance. Just about every nation in the world with the exception of England is hoping Mr. Bush will make a mistake, lose popularity and lose support for his insane war ambitions. Every time we think about his escapades we can’t help but think of Caligula. In Mr. Bush’s quest for power and approval, the administration has arrogantly and shamelessly again run the Dow up over 1,000 points in a week. He must think people are stupid. Even cab drivers are talking about a rigged market. The public is catching on. They are beginning to realize their sons and daughters are going to be murdered so the Bush crime family and the elitists can steal Iraq’s oil. You don’t see it in the US media but the world public is overwhelmingly against an invasion of Iraq. There is now no question, as we have said for a year, that oil is what this is all about. Elitists’ oil interests, once in control of Iraq’s oil will break OPEC and drive oil prices down to $12 to $15 a barrel. This may help basic individual costs but it will also expedite deflation and depression. That means new wars will have to be created in order to occupy the people and make the specter of death far more important than economic and social problems. One distinct possibility after Iraq, then Iran, is Russia and China. A $15 a barrel oil price will cost Russia dearly. It will totally wipe out any current account surplus they might have had. In addition Russia and France will have some of their oil interests abrogated if Napoleon Bush conquers Iraq. Now that America has vanquished fourth world Afghanistan, the World Bank is in Kabul with our tax dollars financing elitists’ transnational business deals. On another note, Prince Saud has again withdrawn support for the coming US war after a report, which we reported on two weeks ago, by the CFR, which blames the Saudis’ for financing terrorism, which certainly takes the gloves off. The CFR investigation was directed by top CFR officials and former CIA operative Maurice Greenberg of AIG. This is the same AIG-Greenberg involved in money laundering for over 50 years for the CIA and their narcotics operations. The main supplier in the 1980’s and 90’s was Carlos Lehder, who was sentenced to life and somehow miraculously was released from jail, so he could live the good life in Nassau. AIG has employed Mr. Lehder’s wife recently, what a coincidence. Carlos ran drugs for George H. W. Bush and Iran Contra along with Barry Seal. One way or another Saudi Arabia is going down probably through internal insurrection. The Bush’s and the oil cartel want to control the oil and Greenberg and Israel want Saudi and Iraq out of the way for obvious reasons. Iraq and Saudi would give US and UK oil interests control of 35-40% of the world’s oil. They would then leave no stone unturned to take out Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, giving them even more power and control and breaking up OPEC at the same time. A major justification by Mr. Bush for an Iraq invasion was Saddam who was on the verge of having nuclear weapons, yet so is North Korea. Why isn’t North Korea being invaded? Is it because pipelines pass through North Korea? We may yet be able to stop the invasion of Iraq but the possibility is remote. The elitists have bought 98% of congress and 100% of the UN. They’ll do what they want to do and it will end up a catastrophe. We believe that even if they have their way there will be an enormous backlash from not only Americans but also the world at large and that outrage could bring the elitists down.

We started to zero in on under-funded pension plans three years ago and the situation has gotten much worse in the interim. AMR is under-funded by 601%, Delta 353%, Goodyear 142%, General Motors 137%, McDermott Int. 134%, Delphi 88%, Navistar 88% and Ford 87% and it goes on and on. Listen to this, AMR is under-funded by $3.367 billion and their current stock market value is $500 million, Delta $4.376 billion to $1,240 billion, Goodyear $1.965 to $1.386 billion, Gm $29,428 billion to $21,421 billion, etc. You talk about a time bomb. A Dow at 4,500 will bankrupt these companies and many more so now you can well understand why "The Working Group on Financial Markets," the Plunge Protection Team is pulling out all stops to keep the stock market from falling lower. Of the 500 S&P companies of the 360 with defined benefit plans 240 are under-funded, the highest level in 10 years. Next year that figure could well be 360 and don’t forget to pay the pensions, that money has to come from operating profit, which means less earnings. It could also mean bankruptcy. If the market goes to the lower levels that we anticipate, we believe beside the gold price explosion, this could be the major issue in the headlines. We have over $300 billion of pension-fund deficits in 2002 for S&P 500 companies. These companies have to produce this money over the next few years. For the year 1999, 2000 and 2001 pension-fund assets lost $80 billion. At the same time pension obligations grew by $170 billion. Most fund estimates were based on a 7.5% return on investment. We believe that will soon be cut to about 5%, which means they are far deeper in the hole than they or their retirees realize. Many companies had basic assumptions on eight to nine and one-half percent returns. These pension liabilities could bankrupt the nation. This and the gold crisis will turn the world financial system upside down. In the coming environment a five percent return is dicey. Safe 10-year Treasury notes could give you four percent and the market zero or less. Worse, even though pension-fund assets lost $90 billion in 2001, they showed an increase of $104 billion through the use of Mickey Mouse bookkeeping. Furthermore, pension-fund liabilities are off-balance sheet liabilities. How’s that for stealth?

We now hear the propaganda machine telling us of the war dividend. We never head anything so stupid. Next we’ll hear that Hannibal Lector was a benevolent killer. We hear of how stocks go up during wars. That has been true, but were the wars held at times when the world financial system was on the verge of collapse? No, that was never the situation. We were close in 1938, not having recovered from the depression, but the system had held on for almost 10 years. Don’t be misled this time, it is different and it’s not a good different. A point to remember is that stock valuations remain higher than at any earlier bear market bottom and that the current market has shown a knack for breaking what once seemed to be immutable market verities, even with the assistance of our government.

It looks like the rally in Treasuries has run its course. The yield has run from 3.59% to 4.26% in just a week. The bubble has been broken. From the beginning of 2000 through this month Treasuries have outperformed the S&P 500 by 77.24%. A good part of the move in treasuries was due to complex Treasury and Mortgage-backed securities trades known as "converity trades." Mortgages comprise $4.3 trillion of the $19 trillion US credit market. As of late, holders of MBS and asset-backed securities experienced huge losses, some as high as 50% or more. This was caused by unprecedented, accelerated mortgage prepayments triggered by historically low-interest rates. Of course Treasuries are supposed to go up when the market goes down and vice-versa, but both the rally in the market of over 1,000 points in a week and a loss of 61 basis points is very extraordinary. Treasuries have been benefiting from a flight from corporate issues due to increasing credit risk. The Merrill Lynch High-Yield Master II Index, which hit a record 10.97% over comparable Treasuries on 10/10, closed the week at 10.41%. Evidently the FED has some new wrinkle up its sleeve the professionals know about. Perhaps it’s a 25% rate cut, although such a rate cut would have sent yields lower not higher. We think the FED does not want to ease and ran the market up to force yields higher. Be that as it may, it’s confusing when you are not on the inside, but we can say the market rally should be peaking out soon; as well as the dollar rally. The best has past and now it’s let’s go the other way with a market correction and a drop in rates, which will accompany a lower dollar and higher gold prices.

Few politicians ever tell the truth and this was again unfortunately borne out by the Bush administration. Several senators said through their aides that Defense Secretary Rumsfeld did not mention North Korea’s covert nuclear weapons program during a classified briefing held in a secure chamber less than three hours before two senior administration officials revealed the news in a conference call with four reporters. The information had been available 12 days earlier. Congress passed the Iraq resolution and Mr. Bush signed it hours before the 7pm disclosure about North Korea. The question really is why are we not attacking North Korea?" The answer was "the President is disciplined and focused and he has made a determination that Iraq is a serious threat that needs to be dealt with immediately. Nothing has changed to alter that determination." We’d say he’s very narrowly focused. Again the congress and the American people have been deceived.

Rumors abound regarding downgrades at Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley among others. If that happens, great pressure will be put on counter-party risk. We’d imagine some companies and governments would be forbidden with these downgrades to execute future business with these firms and perhaps wind up current derivative positions.

We have no independent verification of the following from alternative sources, but we thought it best to pass on the following. It seems the BATF is calling and approaching citizens whose records, form 4477, have been pulled from local gun dealers in Maryland and demanding they turn over their rifles for inspection. Of course, if any agency gets possession of your weapons you seldom get them back again. Usually only by court order by a federal judge. We know, we’ve been there. Evidently some 5,000 weapons have been taken in for "testing" and attorney’s phones are ringing off the hook. As usual the BATF agents are being as nasty as possible. If you are approached by the BATF have your attorney handle it. If you give them your weapons you may never see them again or they may be returned in an altered state. This, if true, is another example of a police state Gestapo.

New York City is deeper in trouble than we previously reported. Police are told not to arrest suspects, even violent offenders, in the last three hours of their tour to get off the clock faster. Doctors and nurses at municipal hospitals are begging patients’ families for help in performance of vital tasks. Due to curtailed sanitation pickups doormen are taking garbage to landfills in New Jersey. The budget gap has swollen to $6 billion, the largest deficit in history. The state will be underwater $12 billion next year and taxes in New York are already unbelievable. Taxes, fees, fines, tolls and citations are going up in cost and municipal services are being cut back again. MTA rates go to $2 a ride, up a 50-cent increase, as the MTA has a deficit of $663 million. Terrorists and the collapse of Wall Street, skyrocketing pension costs, the erosion of confidence in publicly traded corporations and the legacy of former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani are besieging NYC residents. The problems were also caused by a $3 billion loss of direct tax revenues to 9/11 and its fallout and a loss of 146,0000 jobs, which cost $17 billion in lost wages. Wall Street profits that were $21 billion in 2000 will be $12.8 billion this year. That means no bonuses, less taxes paid and less buying by consumers. Mayor Giuliani used $2.5 billion of a $2.8 billion surplus to pay operating costs. He deliberately wiped out the city’s reserve. In the second quarter the city’s income fell 1.3% and unemployment in NYC hit 7.9%. Of the $21.4 billion promised by the Feds only $2.7 billion has been released. What are we looking at? Well, based on the 1970’s debacle in NYC over 30 months 63,828 municipal workers were laid off, including 3,390 cops, 879 firefighters, 10,800 teachers and 4,000 hospital workers and this time it’s much worse. A 10% increase in property taxes will bring in $1 billion annually, 10% state tax surcharge $583 million and a .45% levy on income of suburbanites who go to the city for work, would raise $490 million a year. That’s $2,073 billion. That means $4 billion in cuts will have to be made. This is a disaster and as the economy sinks further NYC will become a war zone. The movie, Escape from New York, wasn’t far off.

Goodyear Tire and Rubber will replace 1,200, $18 per hour workers at its Lincoln plant with workers at a facility in Mexico who make $12.77 a day. The jobs go to Chihuahua and our citizens are thrown out of work. When are Americans going to wake up? When it’s too late and we have to fight in the streets? This is a national disgrace. These transnationals don’t care about American workmanship; they want these jobs out of the US because they want our country on its knees so we will accept world government. What do they have to do, draw pictures for you? Our country is being raped and made impotent. If we do not leave NAFTA and WTO our country’s economy will be destroyed.

America is facing the greatest upsurge in financial fraud since the 1920’s. The accounting scandals in America’s major corporations have cost Americans billions of dollars. At the root of the problem are Wall Street and the lack of regulatory oversight from the SEC, NASD, the US Attorney, state regulators and states’ attorneys. It’s like a big club of criminals called the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission and Bilderberger members. They do whatever they want and no one goes to jail. Meanwhile these agencies prey on small companies and small brokers and brokerage firms because they don’t have the financial means to take these crooks on. We know: we’ve been there.

Massachusetts state securities regulators will file civil-fraud charges against Credit Suisse First Boston. The state has demanded a complete separation of the firm’s research from its investment banking business and a $100 million fine, which CSFB dismissed, hence the legal action. CSFB already paid a $100 million fine in January to the SEC and NASD for charging excessive commissions to hedge funds for allocations of hot IPO’s. They have also referred their findings to New York City’s Eliot Spitzer for possible criminal charges under New York’s Martin Act.

Many health insurance companies place a cap on the amount they will pay out over the course of a person’s lifetime. Two-thirds of people in preferred-provider organizations have such lifetime benefit maximums. You can avoid this if you pay a premium, which would take a lifetime payment from $300,000 to $1 million, but even a million dollars today can be reached in a short period of time. Hospital costs are increasing 15-20% a year and some small group plans are reducing lifetime maximums to as little as $30-$50,000. As an example, bone marrow transplants cost $200-$500,000. Those who experience catastrophic illness are simply wiped out. That is why many smart people are transferring assets to their children after age 65. You then reside in a state that has a high-risk insurance pool.

Sales of office furniture peaked in 2000 at $13.3 billion. They declined 17.4% in 2001 and are expected to decline 19% this year to less than 49 billion. Sales at Herman Miller and Steelcase are off 40% in two years.

If it wasn’t bad enough that corporate America and the major brokerage houses are screwing their clients, so are the mutual funds. Fund managers are failing to disclose conflicts-of-interest that corporate executives could never legally hide behind. It is a conspiracy of silence. We like to call it, lying by omission. There are the deficiency audits, insider trading, failure to disclose brokerage costs, soft dollar costs, failure to disclose taxable distributions, failure to disclose fees honestly, and continued failure to disclose performance accurately. Others are, failure to disclose proxy votes, charges in team-managed funds, disclosure of portfolio holdings in a timely manner and failure to disclose manager compensation. These failures damage the investor and the funds themselves. There should be total transparency.

What is zero financing doing to the auto industry? First it has destroyed the market in wholesale used cars. You buy a new car for $35,000 and two years later its wholesale value, under normal circumstances, is $15,000. You have just lost $20,000 on a vehicle that you have driven 30,000 miles and still have to pay another $25,000 on over the next three years. It’s no wonder the lenders want to exempt car loans from bankruptcy. GM’s sales are booming but hidden costs are building. They have pension and health care bills for 460,000 retirees and these costs have become a huge competitive disadvantage. They could very well soak up every dime of free cash flow the company generates over the next few years; yes every dime. That’s if they make money. If they don’t make money they have to sell assets and if they can’t do that they go under. GM has 2.5 retirees for every active worker as opposed to one-to-one at Ford and Chrysler and no legacy responsibilities at Japanese and Korean carmakers. GM pays $1 billion a year for medical and life insurance benefits for retirees. Over the next 13 years they’ll pay out $38 billion in pension obligations or $76 billion. They are currently short $9 billion. A 10% drop in stocks by the end of 2002 brings that $49 billion to $20 billion in under-funded obligations. The bottom line is GM cannot survive unless the market goes up and we don’t think it’s going up. Therefore, we are instituting a short on GM shares at $37.25 and cover at $30.80. If it breaks $30 a share you reset your short, which will then be open with no cover.

On Monday the market was subject to another fable, that Bank One would takeover JP Morgan Chase, of course, and based on that the market rallied another 216 DOW points. The prospect of that happening, we believe, is remote, especially with Morgan being such a can of worms.

It is inevitable that American productivity will drop. The reasons are simple. Staffs’ management and workers are demoralized as the survivors of layoffs and cost cutting, and they still have to get the same amount of work done despite the shrinking staff and resources. They must now not only do their jobs, but also the work of fired colleagues. The combination of more work and not having been trained properly to do additional work cuts into efficiency. Stress and tension over time takes its toll. The situation will get worse before it improves.

Borrowers are progressively having more trouble meeting debt payments. That generally means reducing frivolous spending, trying to create an emergency fund, reducing credit-card debt, consolidating high interest loans and refinancing mortgages. Present evidence suggests late or non-payment of debt is becoming a major problem and it has crossed economic boundaries, hitting all income classes. Mortgage delinquencies have recently risen to their highest levels in 12 years. Credit-card delinquencies have caused Capital One Financial and Sears to increase bad debt reserves. Delinquent auto loans have forced Ford to raise $700 million. Debt payments made up 14.04% of disposable household income in the second quarter of 2002 versus 13.55% in the second quarter of 1999. As unemployment rises and the economy slips into depression these figures will quickly and easily double.

Corporations need cash and they are selling real estate holdings. They sold 95 properties worth $2.35 billion during the third quarter, up from 63 properties totaling $98 million in the year-ago quarter. For the year they sold 240 worth $4.78 billion versus 208 worth $3.70 billion a year ago. Property companies and REIT’s are the buyers. About 47% of companies own their real estate and 53% lease. The corporate race for cash continues to build reserves while they can and to increase earnings.

The former General Counsel, in court documents, said that auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers knew of the $14 million in relocation loans he got from Tyco. The ex-General Counsel is facing fraud charges for falsifying documents and could get four years in jail.

We often get the question: Is deflation worse than inflation? And the answer is yes. Deflation does more macroeconomic damage than an equal and opposite amount of inflation. It’s because nominal interest rates cannot go below zero, deflation reduces the flexibility of central bankers, increases economic volatility and introduces dangerous distortions in the economy. Deflation, particularly that which accompanies business cycle downturns, renders conventional monetary policy tools ineffective. As the zero lower mark for nominal interest rates approaches, it becomes near impossible for central banks to engineer negative real interest rates that are urgently needed to stimulate growth. If the fall in the velocity of money is not temporary, it presages the limits of conventional monetary policy tools. As in Japan for the past 10 years, deflation has not been reversed and represents a terrifying specter. The result is output falls, savings rise, unemployment rises and psychologically the citizen loses confidence in his or her government. It creates an insular phenomenon. The dangerous distortions of deflation eventually generate a high real interest rate that transfers wealth from debtors to creditors. High real interest rates and lower net worth reduce the ability of borrowers to meet nominal debt obligations, bringing about bankruptcy. This disrupts the smooth functioning of the financial system, particularly when accompanied by derivative, real estate, credit, bond and pension bubbles. They all depress investment, which has already begun, along with employment and prices, which are also underway. Output is an increasing function of prices, producers increase prices as production rises and decrease prices as production falls. Output then is affected by declining prices as is employment and investment. Falling prices bankrupt entrepreneurs and the fear of falling prices forces them to close operations and reduce output and employment. Deflation, modest or chronic, is very dangerous to any economy suffering from a business cycle downturn. Those with large debt, personal or corporate, are particularly vulnerable. Like it or not this is where we are heading. You know what to do: do it. If you have any questions call or write and we’ll do our best to help.

Second quarter dividends from S&P 500 companies rose by 7.8% from the previous year. Dividend paying companies outperformed those that paid no dividends by 22.5% over the first nine months of the year. Yet, the S&P yield is still only 2.04% against 3.25% for the Eurotop 300. This should be a very good lesson to companies. A higher dividend probably means a higher or better share price.

Ford, which has been priced out of the mainstream debt market, will raise more money from securitized bond issues or asset-backed bonds in Europe and Australia to ensure it has access to funding. Both Ford and GM have been locked out of the unsecured debt markets due to weak profits and massive unfunded pension liabilities. Since downgrades, both companies’ unsecured bonds have fallen sharply. We certainly would not be interested in any of their securities at this time.

IBM’s strong earnings report that helped send the market up were bogus. Earnings from continuing operations in the third quarter were down 1% from a year ago. Worse yet, income actually fell 18%, but this decline includes earnings, or lack thereof, from discontinued operations. Yet earnings per share increased two cents in the third quarter versus a year ago. Another deceiving factor is that IBM buys back lots of its outstanding shares, which causes the outstanding shares to decrease, also aiding earnings.

Like many other sectors of the economy REITS are winding up their second year of deteriorating markets and dwindling rents. The question is how much more financial stress can REITS withstand before their dividends are threatened? In a second quarter study of 30 REITS they produced $1.14 in cash for every dollar needed to cover the dividend. That’s not much of a cushion, considering that the next 18 months promise to be very tough. Just a slight drop in occupancy and they’ll be in hot water. For the first three quarters of this year, REITS paid an average dividend of 7%, whereas the S&P 500 dividend was 1.95%. As occupancy and profits drop so will dividends. That means the shares will drop. If you own REITS you had best take a closer look because you could end up losing money.

In order to stay in business stock brokerage firms are raising fees and instituting new ones such as the $30 per quarter "account service fee" if you don’t do enough trading, which Charles Schwab charges. Starting this month, Schwab customers who use brokers to buy no-load funds must pay $25 per trade. Investors who have less than $10,000 in their brokerage account now pay a $45 per quarter fee and a $15 increase for investors who have between $5,000 and $9,000 in assets. Fidelity has added a $3.00 order-handling fee. TD Waterhouse has boosted commissions by $3.00 to $17.95 for customers who have less than $250 in assets or make fewer than 18 trades per quarter. Morgan Stanley has upped IRA fees from $30 to $40 yearly and cash management fees from $80 to $100. Payne Weber and Merrill Lynch are posting similar fees. Retail trading volume is off 60 to 70%, so someone has to pay to keep these brokerage houses in business especially after they made billions of dollars in the nineties and many of them screwed their clients.





AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND

Australians are dead set against the US invading Iraq. The Aussies have lost a one billion wheat deal with Iraq and America is increasing taxes on Australian farm products. Australians are outraged, but this is normal for the NWO crowd.

We were under the impression Australians were forced to turn all their guns in to the government. A man armed with several handguns walked into a Monash University lecture hall and shot two students dead and wounded five before he was overcome.

Moody’s raised New Zealand’s credit rating to Aa2 and Australia was upgraded to Aaa.

Australia’s growth rose 0.5% in September and 1.4% for the year. Inflation was about 0.7% for an annual rate of 3%.


MIDDLE EAST

The IMF recommends that Saudi Arabia speed up implementation of a proposed tax on expatriate workers, who make up 48% of total manpower, and to also extend the tax to Saudis. It’s a rough time to implement taxation. Growth was 1.2% last year and it’s forecast at only 0.7% this year. If they tax locals they may have a revolution on their hands.


ASIA

Those who disagree with our deflation forecasts should read this. Hong Kong consumer prices fell 3.7% from a year earlier, the steepest fall since June 2000. A low demand similar to what is developing in the US and has been present in Japan for some years has now afflicted Hong Kong in a big way. Lack of demand has killed retail-pricing power and property rentals continue to fall. Hong Kong’s economy has been in a depression for 44 months.

JAPAN

Moody’s has raised its credit-rating ceiling on Japan’s foreign-currency debt to the top Aaa grade from Aa1. This is a technical adjustment.



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Business

Gold comes back to fashion as investors` safe haven asset
Merrill Lynch advises hedging equity risk with bullion shares


2002-10-25 / Taiwan News, Staff Reporter / By Marie Feliciano

Gold is back in vogue -thanks to the rising uncertainty in the equities market, depleting mine production, and an agreement that limits the amount of gold that leading central banks could sell, a London-based fund specialist said yesterday.

"Gold is the ultimate defensive investment," said Evy Hambro, Merrill Lynch`s World Gold Fund manager.

"It can do well when equities are doing badly. Its lack of correlation with many other asset classes delivers huge benefits in times of uncertainty."


Hambro, who manages Merrill Lynch`s US$450 million Gold Fund - the largest of its kind in Europe, said investors spooked by the accounting scandals in the United States and Europe, and burnt by the dot-com bust were seeing the glitter in gold shares once again.

Currently, investment demand for gold is seen in Japan, China, the Philippines, Russia, and other Asian markets, he said. Gold`s lure had waned in the last two decades.

"The behavior of the central banks in the gold market (in the 1980s and 1990s) had been disruptive and undisciplined. The way they sold gold was a nightmare to those investing in this sector," Hambro explained.

"We didn`t know when they would sell, how much they would sell, and at what price they would sell their gold."


Another market depressant, he added, was the amount of production from gold mines. In 1980, mines were producing less than 1,000 tons annually. As of last year, it amounted to 2,600 tons, said the fund manager.

Hambro also noted that the over-zealous behavior of speculators led to an increase in gold supply. The almighty greenback, high interest rates, and an elevated faith in a bright future with the "new economy" likewise made gold shares uncompetitive, he added.

"Everyone believed equities would only go up, the new economy was the way forward, and no one wanted highly cash-generative, defensive assets. They wanted sexy growth from Internet and telecom companies. How wrong they were," said Hambro.

Instead of shunning gold shares, investors should now consider adding gold to their asset mix to hedge their equity bets, he said.

The signing of the Washington bank agreement in 1999 has put an end to the central banks` disruptive gold-selling binges, Hambro said, noting the pact brought certainty to the gold market.

"Everyone would know who would sell, how much would be sold, and the period of time that the gold would be sold," said the investment manager.

A falling gold production base, rising corporate mistrust, and a declining global equity market were also increasing the case for gold, said Hambro. Merrill Lynch also held the view that the greenback would continue to weaken against other currencies. As the U.S. dollar weakens, gold prices will continue to rise, he said.

"If it weakens by 10 percent, which is not much, expect gold prices to rise ... to a level of about US$365 an ounce. It`s a very considerable level," he said.

"We think the uncertainty in the markets has now led to an increased outlook for a bullish view on gold."

Investors should also invest in gold mining shares in addition to "hoarding" physical gold.

"Gold is boring - which is actually one of its benefits - but it is only boring relative to gold shares," said Hambro.

"If there is a one percent movement in gold price, you will typically get a three to five percent movement in the underlying gold shares."

Gold shares also form a "perpetual co-option" to gold itself, he said.

"As long as that gold stays in the ground, you don`t mine it for a loss. That will have an option