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Leute kauft DROOY nicht mit einem buy stop mit wirklichen $$$. Ich schätze die Leute tun nicht realisieren das es der beste Weg ist zu kaufen, wenn die Aktie von einem Top herunter kommt. Dieses ist leicht zu managen und die Leute ersparen sich eine Menge von großen Leiden, welches resultiert von dem Versuch einen Boden schätzen zu wollen. Guter Einstiegspunkt dort.

peter.wedemeier1
Es ist Zeit DROOY zu kaufen.
Ich bin Long bei DROOY, RGLD u.a.
RGLD hat sich sehr gut gehalten, es ist bei der Korrektur nicht unter die 50 dma gegangen. Gold geht zurück nach oben. RGLD ist ein gut laufendes Unternehmen mit viel von OPS, aber es ist ein wildes um zu traden. Viel Glück an Alle!

peter.wedemeier1
Financial Sense - Great Message on gold

Here are few comments from today`s FS:

Meanwhile, the bull market in gold and silver is just in its beginning stages. The media reluctantly reports the price of gold. Yet, for the moment it is still looked upon as an anomaly. Wall Street is constantly encouraging investors to sell out of their gold stocks as the smart money quietly accumulates gold and silver bullion, and gold and silver equities. I have watched each day the money flows of particular gold and silver stocks. You can see the dumb money flow out of equities after one firm or another downgrades the sector. On days of heavy selling, money flow turns positive at the end of the day as smart investors pick up lower priced shares. In one way this is just another example of Wall Street picking investors? wallets. They convince them to sell off their gold stocks that are rising and buy tech, biotech or some other group of stocks that are falling. What is taking place is a wealth transfer of money from weak hands into stronger hands. Strong hands hold the mining shares we own. The float available to the general public is very small. On days we see day traders or fund managers dump their shares, we use it as an opportunity to buy. We aren?t alone judging by the money flow changes we see take place during the day.
As today?s graph shows, gold has kept above its 100 and 200 day moving average. Contrast today?s graph of gold with the moving averages of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, which long ago have both fallen below their short-term and long-term moving averages. The stock market may rally periodically. That is normal during a bear market phase just as it is normal during a bull market for stock prices to pull back. What you will find in an examination of gold and silver is higher lows and higher highs, a reflection of a new bull market. In contrast, when looking at stocks in general, such as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, you find lower highs and lower lows, just the opposite. Both categories of asset classes have simply traded places. One asset class, gold and silver, are in a new bull market that is just beginning. The other asset class, stocks or paper, are now in a bear market that has just about completed its first phase. This is the message of the charts still being ignored.

If you?re an equity investor, it is time to cut your losses. If you are in metals, it is time to let your profits ride, for the new bull market of the century is just in its beginning phase. If you?re a day trader, it is time to start thinking long-term. The real money is going to be made in this new and emerging bull market in "things." If you trade out of metals now, you will be buying back later at much higher prices. Gold and silver are being held in strong hands. These metals are much different than tech or other types of stocks. To gold and silver investors, it represents freedom. Gold and silver is nobody else?s liability. Gold and silver have to be produced and can?t be printed like paper assets. The other aspect about metals is that they represent religion. Those who own precious metals are aware of its 5,000-year track record. They own it because of strong convictions held through a very long and protracted bear market. Gold and silver investors represent a different class of investors. They think long-term like the durability of the metals. Those shares of precious metals stocks or the bullion will not be relinquished. Any pullback will only be used to buy from those who are foolish enough to sell at today?s multi-decade lows, something to ponder if you are short, thinking of selling, or just now thinking of buying.
Noch 6 Tage und DROOY ist ungehedgt und damit einher kommen ungehedgte Preise. Die gestrige Bewegung war erwartet und die Volatilität wird steigen wird steigen bis wir durch die $10 brechen...sei vorbereitet--->ungehedgt ab 01.07.02!

peter.wedemeier1
Der US-Chart zeigt ein Gravestone doji = bullish.
DROOY`s Gewinne sollten in diesem Quartal gut aussehen. Der Chart sagt mir jedenfalls, das wir bald Gewinne sehen werden, die besser ausfallen werden als erwartet.
Der Chart in den letzten zwei Monaten zeigt mir eine vertikale expandierte Version von einer Konsolidierungsformation. Du hast jetzt ein oder zwei Tage und DROOY hebt ab. Ein Trip nach oben ist in dieser Formation gegeben. Wir werden eine Menge nach oben weiter steigen. Denn nichts hat sich an den Umständen geändert, das Gold und damit die Goldaktien nach oben treibt.
Und: DROOY wird bald bekanntgeben können, das es ungehedgt ist! Wir bilden gerade auf diesem Niveau eine Menge an Unterstützung.

peter.wedemeier1
Ich bin weiterhin positiv für die Fundamentals von dem Goldmarkt und glaube somit, das der Goldkurs Aufwärtstrend sich beständig fortsetzen wird.

peter.wedemeier1
Jetzt warum ich weiterhin positiv für die Fundamentals von dem Goldmarkt bin: http://www.seabridgegold.net/the_case_for_gold.htm

peter.wedemeier1
Ich sage es wird rebounden von diesen Niveaus nach oben, Fundamentals sehen gut aus und TA sieht sehr gut aus.

peter.wedemeier1
wer meint "Drooy" ist zu riskant
der kann ruhig verkaufen

bei Goldminen brauche ich keine Pusher.

ich brauche nur

den Rüstungslobbisten US-President H. Bush

die US-Schulden

die Fed-Funds-Rate die nichts mehr bewirkt

und

natürlich brauche ich immer ca. 24 Monate Zeit
um mein Kapital zu verdoppeln.

Wers nicht glaubt soll die Sache halt mit
Bleistift und Radiergummie beobachten.

In 12 Monaten kann man immer noch einsteigen
denn der Goldpreis geht noch auf 600 US-$/Unze

also ihr könnt auch noch bei 380 US-$/Unze einsteigen.
DROOY >Best gold & silver stocks for the half-year bei den zero bis leicht gehedgten Aktien die Nr. 1.
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/2090f74ba5297296422567b5004b…
FTW Economic Alert
Global Economic Collapse Imminent,
Pension Fund Disaster;
Stocks, Dollar To Free Fall, Gold To Skyrocket
By Michael C. Ruppert
7-8-2

[Ed. Note: The last time FTW issued an emergency economic bulletin to its subscribers was Sept. 9. At that time a derivatives investment bubble on the verge of implosion, a 900-point drop in the Dow Jones average and a pending liquidity crisis signaled a crash on the order of 1929. Only the attacks of Sept. 11 and massive intervention from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve prevented the collapse. Investors blamed the ensuing market losses on the attacks.

The situation now is much, much worse as more factors combine to suggest that foreign investors and trust in the U.S. economy might soon be a thing of the past. Your pension is at risk today and your home may be at risk in six months to a year.

One economic analyst has suggested that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan might be the perfect cover for the biggest financial wipe out in human history. I think that an ill-conceived and risky invasion of Iraq might serve the same purpose. From consumer confidence, to corporate accounting, to the dollar, to gold, to foreign capital flight, to pension fund wipe outs, to the derivative bubble, to debt, there is not a single economic indicator that is not flashing red.

The warnings are as clear, explicit and well-documented as were the warnings received by the U.S. government throughout summer 2001 that a terrorist attack against the World Trade Center would take place during the week of Sept. 9 using hijacked airliners from United and American airlines. Nothing was done to prevent that and apparently nothing is being done now in spite of the fact that $4.2 trillion of your money has been stolen right in front of your eyes.

There was no single reason for the attacks of 9-11. I have cited oil, drug cash and geopolitics as three of the primary motives for the U.S. government s complicity in allowing the attacks to happen. But what also cannot be overlooked is the fact that 9-11 effectively masked a major economic crash that was certain to occur. That crash was not been averted by the extraordinary financial maneuverings of the Bush administration that followed 9-11. It was merely postponed for a very short time.--MCR ]


c. 2002 From The Wilderness Publications, www.copvcia.com. All Rights Reserved. May be copied or distributed for non-profit purposes only. May not be posted on any internet web site in its entirety without express written consent. Contact mruppert@copvcia.com.

July 8, 2002, 4 PM PDT (FTW) -- Reuters, London published a story June 27 based upon an interview with billionaire financier George Soros. The headline read, Soros Blames Bush Factor for Dollar s Fall. George Soros is a man to be reckoned with. Emerging from WWII as someone who allegedly cooperated with Nazi occupation troops by identifying assets to be seized, the European financier is one of the most powerful financiers on the planet. He is credited with successfully assaulting the currencies of several nations, including Britain s pound. He recently participated in the World Economic Forum in New York where he was seated on the dais with the likes of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Hillary Clinton, Shimon Peres and academics from Ivy League colleges. It is more than just a case that when Soros speaks, people listen. The truth is that when Soros speaks, markets move.

His comments were brutal.

The international financial system is coming apart at the seams &There is a lack of confidence. That s what I call the Bush factor in the economy. There is a liquidity crisis in financial markets, said Soros. Everybody s going home. The Swiss banks are going home. The strengthening of the yen clearly shows repatriation. Translated, that means that foreign capital is fleeing the United States in the wake of as yet not fully realized accounting scandals that will, according to Fox News on July 6, take an estimated $600 billion in value out of the U.S. stock market this year. One of the many smoke alarms triggered by this is the fact that the U.S. economy needs an estimated $1.5 trillion per year in new foreign investment just to remain solvent.

Reuters quoted Soros as saying that the global economic downturn had exposed the weaknesses of corporate America and how the U.S. administration runs the international economic system.

Soros is aware of what FTW and noted economic thinkers like Catherine Austin Fitts, former assistant secretary of housing, and British economist Chris Sanders of Sanders Research have been saying for years: as much as half of the value of the U.S. financial markets is derived from criminal endeavors, whether it is the laundering of drug money or the fraudulent cooking of financial statements to boost profits.

PUMP AND DUMP

It s a simple scheme really. The mafia knows it quite well. By whatever means necessary, drive a stock s price higher and higher. Make it look like a mover, even if it s a dog. Cook the books and get suckers to buy in, helping to drive the price even higher. When you think the balloon will pop, call all your buddies and sell your shares. That effectively steals all the money that the suckers put in. When the stock crashes, the suckers who weren t part of the scheme will take the loss, whether they be individual investors or the New York City police and fire pension fund.

The U.S. stock markets have been pumped to the breaking point, and they are trying very hard to dump right now. Most sober analysts have agreed for a long time that the prices are over-inflated by as much as 50 percent or more; that price/earnings ratios, now averaging more than 30-1, should properly be corrected to about 15-1. That means the Dow should be at 5,000 or lower. We ll talk about how the meltdown is being temporarily prevented later. It is first necessary to examine the severity of the crisis.

If I mention the bookkeeping problem that s threatening Wall Street right now and asked you how many companies were being investigated for or had announced overstated earnings, how many would you say? Six? Eight? Try 17.* Seven of them are energy companies, and this adds another degree of imperative for Congress to force the White House to compel full disclosure from Vice President Cheney s 2001 energy task force. But he has a problem there too. One of the companies under investigation for fraudulent bookkeeping is Halliburton. Cheney was its CEO until taking office, and the fraudulent accounting occurred while he was the boss.

Did you think that WorldCom was a big one, having illegally claimed $3.8 billion in earnings to boost its share price? On July 5, according to Newsday, the energy giant Reliant Resources restated its 1999-2001 earnings by chopping off $7.8 billion in revenue. Just today it was disclosed on CNN that the pharmaceutical giant Merck has overstated its revenues by $14 billion.

At the core of all these accounting problems is a non-transparent form of corporate bookkeeping called pro forma. As opposed to the more transparent and rigid practice called GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices), pro forma bookkeeping allows for all kinds of manipulations like hiding debt as income, double booking revenues and sneaking drug money onto the bottom line. What has yet to be fully explored by any of the major media is which other major corporations use pro forma bookkeeping. The reason is that all of the major media companies use it too. Also on the pro forma system are GE (NBC), AOL/Time Warner (CNN), Microsoft (MS-NBC), Viacom (CBS), Disney (ABC), IBM, Intel, Cisco Systems, Sun Micro, Tribune (the Chicago Tribune and the L.A. Times), The Washington Post (Newsweek) and the New York Times.

The accounting scandals are starting to nip at the heels of these and other cornerstones of American capital markets. Trading of GM shares was halted June 27 after unconfirmed market rumors of accounting irregularities. And New York Times reporter Gretchen Morgenson offered the suggestion in an April 14 story that GE might be cooking its books. Thanks to PBS s Lowell Bergman in a 2000 report, we already know that GE has been called on the carpet for accepting drug cash, lots of drug cash, as payment for the good things it brings to life. So has Philip-Morris.

How much foreign capital can Wall Street expect to attract, let alone retain if foreign investors expected to be wiped out for leaving their money here? American investors, especially pension funds are still putting money in or leaving it in place in the stock market. Are there other alarm bells that mom and pop investors should be hearing? What will happen to the value of the American brand name as a trustworthy place to invest money if GM is ultimately revealed to have cooked its books?

A look at the real health of the stock market is revealing. On April 26, The International Forecaster made two chilling observations:

At the time of the AOL Warner merger the combined companies were worth $290 billion. They are presently worth $85 billion. Their quarterly loss is estimated to be $50 billion. This could be the business mistake of the new century &

The downgrade of Bristol Myers Squibb to Aaa by Moody s leaves only 8 AAA-rated companies left. They are GE, UPS, AIG, ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson Berkshire Hathaway, and Pfizer & Merck. In 1990 there were 27 AAA companies and in 1979 there were 58.

THE DOLLAR

Soros was extremely upset about what was happening to the U.S. dollar, which has been falling against various currencies for about a month. The key to understanding this lies in the lesson I learned at an economic conference in Moscow in spring 2001. Almost all countries in the world use the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency. They have bought trillions and are holding them. If another currency becomes more valuable or is viewed as more stable, then the world will switch currencies, and trillions of dollars will come back into the country -- inflation would be inevitable and the dollar would lose its value.

In the week ending July 5, the dollar closed consistently at or near parity with the Euro. As of this posting it sits at (US) 99 cents and has been hovering there for more than a week. Since various economic reforms from the 1950s to the 1970s removed the dollar from the gold standard it has been a fiat currency, unconnected to any measure of intrinsic value. The full faith and credit of the United States -- along with its military -- have given the dollar its value. The Euro is partially backed by gold and there have been lingering but credible rumors for years that the U.S. s gold reserves have been moved to Europe.

Soros told Reuters, But the declines in the markets have gone somewhat further than what would be the natural consequences of the previous exuberance &

The decline in the dollar came as a surprise to me &I attribute it to lack of confidence in the management of affairs by the United States, its unilateralism, the pursuit of national self-interests and not living up to the responsibility of being the dominant financial power in the world, not taking care of the system.

What is Soros setting us up for? The pumping of the stock market occurred while Bill Clinton was president. Yet he s blaming Bush. Is another Herbert Hoover being created before the big crash? The signs are there. Britain s paper the Independent ran a June 28 story headlined, WorldCom scandal: Currencies: Latest Wall Street disaster sends investors all over the world running for cover. The lead read, The U.S, dollar yesterday moved to the brink of free fall, a nightmare scenario for the world economy, after reverberations from the WorldCom scandal triggered panic among investors.

That was before the announcements about Reliant and Merck.

The story painted a glum picture. This is threatening to become a disorderly market, David Bloom, global economist at HSBC said. There s no better way to show loss of confidence in a country than through its currency.

Quoting another financial expert, the Independent reported, If the dollar s decline turns explosive, this could compound the problems of the U.S. asset markets as currency losses raise fears of massive capital flight out of the U.S.

GOLD

For years the price of gold -- the ultimate smoke alarm signaling a failing economy -- has been artificially suppressed by paper traders who are capable of flooding the commodities markets with gold future options when the price needs to be kept low. Why low? Because rising gold prices have always signaled inflation and/or a lack of faith in the financial markets. Years of efforts by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA, while not being successful at halting or fully exposing the artificial manipulation of gold prices by the Federal Reserve, major banks, the Bank of International Settlements and major commodities traders, have opened the eyes of many to overt manipulations in gold pricing.

As one investment banker told me recently, there is five times more paper gold than there is actual gold out of the ground. If gold prices ever pop they ll be out of sight.

Over the past year, certainly since 9-11, gold prices have often moved in exactly the opposite direction (lower) from what conditions would dictate. The financial effort required to do this requires the support of powerful state banking institutions and cash to service the paper. Gold has risen in price from around $280 an ounce nine months ago to a high of around $327 in recent weeks. That s a return on investment of 16 percent -- far better than the Dow has done this year.

In our last economic bulletin FTW noted that the Dow had lost close to 900 points. Since March of this year it had lost, before the profit-seeking 300-point rally of July 5, almost 1,600 points. Yet even as the economic news worsened last week, the price of gold peaked and then started to fall. As of this writing it sits at $312 an ounce. The gold price dropped as the worst economic news was hitting the streets. Why?

As one astute gold watcher, Jay Taylor, summed it up in an October 2000 newsletter, Every single time there is concern about a stock market debacle, gold is bombed. Always.

On June 5 GATA described one of the recent moves to fiddle with gold prices. MiningWeb.com has just reported an explanation for the plunge in the gold price today. The plunge, MiningWeb says, came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz, and finally to $321/oz, &The sale was executed using the Access system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

There are unmistakable signs of market manipulation now with regards to both gold and stocks. Who is it that keeps the markets from correcting, only making the inevitable crash that much worse? It s called the Plunge Protection Team, or PPT. And now it has to have the liquidity to flood both the gold and the stock markets with enough cash to keep the bubbles from bursting. This, at the same time that major banks like J.P. Morgan/Chase and Citigroup sit atop huge derivatives bubbles that have been estimated at between $150 trillion and $300 trillion. Most major U.S. banks have heavy exposure as a result of the mushrooming financial scandals. All of these bubbles require cash, and this is the liquidity Mr. Soros is rightly worried about.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has been challenging the gold manipulation for years. He has been one of the few fiscally sane voices anywhere on Capitol Hill. His website has a listing of his writings and much needed legislation he has or is sponsoring.

Only recently have there been signs that the PPT is also working in the U.S. equity (stock) markets.

THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM

The Washington Post acknowledged the existence of a select group of four who could and would intervene in markets to prevent massive capital flight and a run on shares that would cause an economic collapse if there weren t enough cash to pay out during a massive sell off. In his Feb. 23, 1997 story headed Plunge Protection Team, Post reporter Brett Fromson identified the Federal Reserve chairman, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, the chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and the secretary of the Treasury as the team s key players. The intervention of the team in the 1998 crash of Long Term Capital Management, after it became wildly overexposed in the gold market, revealed that private institutions such as Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch and other major banks could be involved as well.

Fromson quoted a former team member as saying, In a crisis, a lot of deference is paid to the Fed. They are the only ones with any money. Or, I might add, the ability to print it.

Pointing to the 1987 stock market crash, the single largest crash in history, Fromson observed, The Fed kept the markets going by flooding the banking system with reserves and stating publicly that it was ready to extend loans to important financial institutions, if needed.

On April 5, 2000 New York Post reporter John Crudele reported that the stock market had turned back from the abyss. After a 500-point drop that looked like it was leading to a meltdown, &someone started buying large amounts of stock index futures contracts through two major brokerage firms -- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch &Unless the brokers tell, there is no way of knowing which of their clients were making the purchases &Then the market rebounded.

Calling it the PPT, Crudele both referred to the 1997 Washington Post story and suggested that private banks were acting as team captains.

Gold activist David Guyatt, relying on information obtained from GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, pointed to the PPT in October 2000. The hand of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is clearly visible for the first time. The entire short gold play over the last few years is a technique that has been used to prop up key stocks and fund futures operations. In the simplest form it works like this. Borrow (at negligible interest rates) someone s [America s, Germany s, Britain s, Goldman Sachs ] gold and sell it in the market. This gives a handsome pool of near-interest-free dollar cash. Whenever the stock market looks shaky, or key stocks come under pressure, dive in and buy, buy, buy &

But it is not only necessary to manipulate the stock market to succeed. It is also necessary to manipulate the gold price and keep the price of gold below the price PPT sold the leased gold for &This is a game of double jeopardy &The problem the PPT now have is that there is virtually no more official gold left to borrow, wrote Guyatt.

The causes of this intervention were a pending NASDAQ crash and the imminent downgrading of IBM and Intel stocks.

And the PPT s hand has been noted recently from as far away as Australia. Progressive Review Editor Sam Smith recently quoted a story by Richard Bromby of the Australian Financial Review:

At 2:32 Wednesday [June 26, 2002], New York time, something extraordinary happened at the corner of Wall and Broad streets. The New York Stock Exchange s Dow Jones industrial index -- struggling since the opening bell after the WorldCom fraud revelations -- threw off its problems. From an intraday low of 8,926.6, the Dow shot skywards to its high of 9,160 at 3:29 PM &Could it be the work of the much talked about, but never seen, Plunge Protection Team? There is a belief that this team represents a powerful and secretive hand that is ready to act at any time the Dow looks ready to tank big-time &

&London s Observer newspaper last October reported it had information the plunge team was preparing to spend billions of dollars to avert a repeat of 1929 and 1987.

The problem is clear: With a strong dollar the PPT has demonstrated that it has enough cash to suppress gold prices or to save the stock market. It may not have enough cash to do both -- especially if the dollar were to suddenly lose its value. Then, all of the chickens that have been locked out will come home to roost with a vengeance.

As The International Forecaster reported on April 26, The American consumer has run out of credit and buying power &All bets are off if the housing and credit bubbles break and that s a distinct possibility &Debtor s prison is drawing nearer. House and Senate conferences are deciding on a new set of rules for Chapter 7 bankruptcy &If the Plunge Protection Team weren t manipulating the market with all these scandals, the Dow would already be at 4,500.

REALIZING THE EXTENT OF THE DESTRUCTION

Not all of the money looted from American taxpayers is going to support the PPT market manipulations. A lot of it is just being stolen.

According to the Standard and Poor s website, domestic equity allocation (stock market) of U.S. pension fund investments was near 50 percent by the end of the 1990s. It has topped 50 percent since then.

Before the 2000 presidential election, candidate George W. Bush promised that he would tap the Social Security Trust Fund only in the event of war, recession or national emergency. On Sept. 11, he was quoted by his budget director, Mitch Daniels, as saying, Lucky me! I hit the trifecta!

It s not a question about stealing a little here and a little there. It s a question about open, full-scale looting -- but only from the pockets of the American people who, in my opinion, will soon have almost nothing left. Let s look at the hard numbers of what has been taken and from where. These numbers are by no means exhaustive. It s just what we know about.

$34 Billion - Social Security in 2001 (USA Today/Washington Post)

$160 Billion - Social Security in 2002 (est.) (House Budget Committee)

$42 Billion - Federal Employees Retirement System (Wall Street Journal 6/13/02)

(to Meet 2002 budget deficits)

$2 Billion - Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (ibid)

$1,100 Billion - Stolen from the Dept. of Defense -- 1999 (Cong. Record and Insight Magazine)

$2.3 Billion - Stolen from the Dept. of Defense -- 2000 (CBS News)

$59 Billion - Stolen from HUD -- 1999 (Cong. Record)

$600 Billion - Shareholder Equity Lost to Financial Fraud -- 2002 (Fox)

$4,297 Billion TOTAL



Pending Thefts:

$845 Billion - Social Security (by 2010) (Washington Post citing Cong. Budget Office figures)

An anecdotal story reveals the damage to pension funds. If you think that Social Security will be a safety net, please read the above section again. Of course we all know about the Enron employees who were wiped out. But according to the New York Times on April 3, New York City s pension system has lost $9 billion in the wake of recent stock scandals. Imagine the impact if local governments declared bankruptcy or defaulted on their pension obligations. It has been estimated that the California state employee retirement system (CALPERS) has more than 90 percent of its money invested in the stock market.

A WORD ABOUT HOUSING

Most Americans believe that their homes are their last, best retirement insurance. Yet many Americans have mortgaged their homes for 120 percent of value. Their loans are backed with the full faith and credit of the U.S. government through various agencies such as Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Authority.

The International Forecaster has predicted that 40 percent of Fannie and Freddie s loans are going to come back and haunt them. We envision an S&L type bailout of $2.4 trillion down the road. This will be the biggest financial disaster in history.

The full faith and credit of the U.S. government lie behind these home loans. If the homeowners go broke in an economic crash, they default. If the U.S. government goes broke -- before or after that point -- it defaults, and the holders of U.S. debt ultimately have the right (especially under WTO and globalization) to foreclose on the collateral -- your home loans. In the worst case scenario most of the United States could legally be owned by all of the countries holding U.S. debt -- better described as T-Bills, or U.S. gold, or U.S. stocks.

CONCLUSION

The Great Depression was not an event that wiped out U.S. capitalists. It was an event that made the rich even richer by transferring the wealth of the people into the hands of the wealthy. Legendary is Bank of America s rise to affluence through real estate foreclosures from 1929-37. Don t believe for a minute that the richest of the rich will be hurt by the coming collapse. The only ones hurt will be you and me.

George Soros is a member of the Bilderberger Group, a collection of the wealthiest individuals on the planet. It includes, from the U.S., both Democrats and Republicans, and from Europe and Asia the richest old money that can be found. U.S. participants in this year s conference included David Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summer, former CIA Director John Deutch and George Soros. It was just after this year s meeting which ended in early June, that all of the revelations about corporate fraud started to really hit the news. One wonders if it had been on the agenda.

I also note sadly a recent financial report from the Denver area stating that mortgage foreclosures were going through the roof. This, at the same time that Reuters (July 2, 2002) reported that corporate layoff announcements had risen by 12% in one month. In this context Bush s tax cuts seem worse than bad judgment. As former Ass t Secretary of Housing Catherine Fitts pointed out to me in a last minute e-mail, By 2010, when (and if) the Bush tax reductions are fully in place, an astonishing 52 per cent of the total tax cuts will go to the richest one per cent & Put another way, of the estimated $234 billion in tax cuts scheduled for the year 2010, $121 billion will go to just 1.4 million taxpayers.

Unless you can convince me that gravity might suddenly reverse direction, this collapse is inevitable and imminent. It will be unspeakably brutal. How long do we have? Maybe weeks. Maybe months. Maybe only days. But the house of cards is already starting to collapse all around us. A major terrorist attack, the folly of an invasion of Iraq or a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would only be a momentary diversion from a much greater tragedy.
CORRECTING IN A BULL MARKET
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
Gold is finally taking a breather following its sharp rise to a 4½ year high. It had risen too far, too fast and the current decline is a normal downward correction in an ongoing bull market.

BULLISH FACTORS

Keep in mind, many don`t believe this gold rise is for real and since it`s really just beginning, there`s lots of nervousness and disbelief, especially from Wall Street. That`s actually better for us because, based on sentiment, it means this bull has further to go.

Plus, government spending is too high and debt is building fast. And with the Dollar now falling sharply and the Fed pumping the money supply, it all adds up to inflation. Commodity prices are starting to rise too, in part thanks to the weak Dollar. The CRB index is now clearly bullish and that`s also very bullish for gold. It means prices in general are headed higher and we all know that gold rises with inflation.

At the same time, stocks are falling sharply and we`re seeing the aftermath of the economic and stock euphoria of the 90s, the ongoing deflating bubble as well as terrorism concerns, which are also adding fuel to gold`s bull market. In addition, the rise in gold and other tangible assets are telling us that the pendulum is starting to swing gold`s way for the first time in 20 years. It`s not casual by any means.

GOLD`S 8 YEAR CYCLE

We don`t think it`s a coincidence that gold`s eight year cycle is coinciding with all these factors. Chart 1 is exciting because it shows that gold`s been very consistent ever since it began trading in the free market.

As you can see, gold has experienced a major low every eight years since 1969. Sometimes it was on the short side, like seven years in 1976, or on the longer side, like 8½ years in 1985, but the point is, it`s consistent.

The chart identifies this repetitive pattern and the last low occurred in February 2001, right on the eight year mark!

Most interesting, each eight year cyclical low was followed by a rise that lasted three to five years, with the average being 3½ years.

Rising on course
So far, gold is following the pattern. It`s been rising from the 2001 low for almost 1½ years now. It`s in a bull market above $286, the 65-week moving average, and it`s on course to rise further. If the past is prologue, we could now see gold continue to rise until at least the end of this year, which would be the short side. February 2006 would be on the long side and the average would be until 2004.

Note that two of the four rises occurred in the 1970s during the roaring bull markets. The other two were moderate bulls in 1985-87 and 1993-96.

The worst performing rise was in 1993-96 and the current rise has already had a similar gain in a shorter time period. We think we can safely discard that bull market because the environment was so different then. That was the start of the tech boom whereas now we`re in the tech bust.

Taking the next moderate bull of 1985-87, it produced a gain of 72% in almost three years. This means a similar moderate bull today could reasonably take the gold price to the $440 level.

Powerful start
But this time is different. So far, gold is behaving a lot more bullishly than since the late seventies.

No doubt, gold`s off to a powerful start. It`s still to be seen if the wild moves of the seventies return, but we believe a better performing bull market lies ahead compared to the 80s and 90s.
Das PPT (JP Morgan/FED/Central Banks) haben gestern anden Märkten interveniert. Sie sind es auch, die den Goldpreis manipulierenindem sie ihn unten halten. Verdammt dieses scheiß PPT und vor allem die Gangsterbank JP Morgan. Sie sind alles Verbrecher!!!
Sie versuchen gerade die schwachen Hände und Spekulanten aus den Minenaktien zu schütteln, vor den Gewinnen die in 8 Tagen herauskommen werden und diese werden gut sein. Es macht keinen Sinn, was hier vor sich geht und dieses ist ihr Aktionsplan. Die Fed kann nicht ewig frisches Geld drucken oder es ist Inflation. Trotzdem wird der Fed Chef seine Verarschungsrede halten und uns erzählen, wie wunderbar doch die Welt in Ordnung ist. Nebenbei wird JP Morgan von London aus den Goldpreis unten zu halten. Wall St. rotiert das Geld in einem genickbrechenden Tempo, in so einem Tempo, das das ganze System bald an die Wand knallen wird. Behaltet eure Goldaktien, wenn ihr den Zug nicht verpassen wollt und kauft auf dips. Keine Panik, die ist fehl am Platz. Behaltet eure Minenaktien, denn wir werden bald nach oben gehen.
Als der Goldpreis war in den mittleren bis höheren §330`s Ende Mai und wieder an dem Anfang von der Korrektur Mitte Juni, DROOY war in der $4,00-4,50 Range, gerade wie jetzt. Die Ökonomie sinkt weiter und wird fortsetzen zu sinken für eine längere Zeit. Der Dollar wird fortsetzen zu fallen und der Goldpreis wird fortsetzen zu steigen. Die Zeit ist auf unserer Seite. Zuletzt für die nächsten 10-20 jahre. Die Ameriakner rennen aus Ihren Aktien (Dow Jones/Nasdaq), weil sie überhaupt kein Vertrauen mehr haben in Ihre Unternehmen. Die Zahlen, die jetzt in der Berichtssaison herausgegeben werden. Wer kann mit 100%ger Sicherheit davon ausgehen, das sie korrekt sind. Ich glaube niemand! Falls wir einen Bounce erleben sollten, wenn überhaupt, es wird ein
B E A R M A R K E T B O U N C E !!! sein. Nichts mehr und nichts weniger.

peter.wedemeier1
Tja, die Zeit ist wohl noch nicht reif für den Ausbruch.
Gold befindet sich weiterhin in einem Aufwärtstrendkanal. Die 312 sollte nicht unterschritten werden und ein echter Ausbruch ist erst über 340 geschafft. Leider ist die Korrelation zwischen Goldpreis und Aktienkurs nicht mehr die alte. Die Umsätze bei DROOY sind seit Juni merklich zurückgegangen. Die Anfälligkeit für kleine Kursstürze ist damit größer. Bei 3,48$ verläuft das untere Bollinger Band. Hält diese Unterstützung nicht, ist das Ziel wohl eher im Bereich der 200-Tage-Linie zu suchen = 2,78$. Kurzfristig gibt es wohl eher noch Druck auf den Kurs...
Es ist Zeit Gold wieder zu kaufen. DROOY!!! Gold ist in einem bull market!!!

peter.wedemeier1
Diese Analyse von F.J.Buskamp könnte vielleicht dem Anleger
eine neue Betrachtungsweise zu der aktuellen Marktsituation verhelfen. Besonders die dezeit überverkaufte Situation im Dow und DAX sollte in Kürze für eine techn. Reaktion nach " oben " sorgen. Wie allerdings geht es dann weiter ??


Es handelt sich um die sogenannte Dow - Gold - Ratio - Analyse ( DGR ) . Die Berechnung der DGR ist auch für den Laien sehr einfach nachzuvollziehen. Aktueller Stand des Dow Jones - Index dividiert durch den aktuellen Goldpreis pro Unze. Beim Stand von 10000 Pkt. des Dow und einem Goldpreis von 320 US$ errechnet sich ein Ratio von 31,25 Punkten. Das heißt im Klartext - sie benötigen 31,25 Unzen Gold , um einmal den Dow Jones - Index bzw. jeweils eine der darin enthaltenen 30 Aktien zu kaufen.

Aus historischer Sicht ist der Dow Jones - Index immer dann unterbewertet , sobald die DGR unter 5 Punkte fällt. Dies war zuletzt im Zuge des Crash von Oktober 87 der Fall. Seinerzeit sackte die DGR auf ca. 3,50 Punkte. Anschließend entwickelten sich der Dow Jones - Index als auch der Goldpreis diametral. Während der Goldmarkt in den folgenden Jahren seine Langfrist - Baisse fortsetzte , stieg der Dow Jones rasant weiter. Die DGR erreichte schließlich ihr Allzeithoch mit über 40 im August 99. Nach der ersten Korrektur scheiterte die nachfolgende Rallye bereits deutlich vor dem Allzeithoch. Inzwischen verhält es sich so , dass neue Tiefs erreicht werden , die jeweils unter dem vorangegangenen liegen. Ein klassischer Abwärtstrend also.

Der Abwärtstrend des DGR dürfte sich weiter fortsetzen. Gemessen an einer DGR von 31,25 Punkten ist der US - Aktienmarkt gegenüber dem Goldpreis klar überbewertet. Dies bedeutet aber nicht , dass ein Markt sich nun einseitig entwickeln muß. Viel wahrscheinlicher ist , dass beide Märkte wiederum diametral zulaufen.
Um aktuell ein DGR - Kaufsignal für den Dow Jones - Index zu generieren , müsste der Goldpreis bei einem Stand des Dow von 10 000 Punkten auf 2000 US$ pro Unze explodieren. Wahrscheinlicher ist , das der Dow Jones in den kommenden Jahren tendenziell fällt , während der Goldpreis im Trend weiter zulegt.

Die Erkenntnisse aus dem DGR - Chart bestätigen auch die nur selten beobachtete Interaktion zwischen Gold und Aktienmarkt. Diese besagt , dass zyklische Langfristtiefpunkte am Goldmarkt mit langfristigen Hochpunkten am Aktienmarkt einhergehen und umgekehrt. Nur , und dies ist wichtig , bezieht sich dies auf langjährige Entwicklungen. Zeitweise können beide Märkte auch parallel laufen. So fielen sowohl das Gold - , Zwischenhoch im Oktober 87 oberhalb der 500 US$ und das Allzeithoch des Dow Jones im August 87 zusammen. Unmittelbar nach dem Crash im Oktober sackte auch der Goldpreis durch , und Goldaktien waren die größten Verlierer des damaligen Crashs.

Aktuell notiert der Dow Jones - Index bei ca. 8200 Punkten , der Goldpreis bei 305 UD$ / Unze. Rechnen wir einmal großzügig , beziffern den Dow mit 5000 und ein DGR von 8 Punkten. In dieser Situation sollte für Gold ca. 625 US$ / Unze bezahlt werden. Langfristig hat sich die DGR - Theorie stets bestätigt. Auch der Zeitrahmen zwischen Aktienbaisse und einer neuen Hausse waren immer ähnlich lang, nämlich 15 bis 18 Jahre.( leider )

hier einige historische Daten dazu:
1929 bis 32 / DGR max.15 Punkte / Crash )
1932 bis 48 / DGR zwischen 3 und 6 Punkte
1948 bis 65 / Anstieg des DGR auf max. 28 Punkte ( Crash )
1965 bis 74 / Rückgang des DGR auf 4 Punkte
1974 bis 77 / Anstieg des DGR auf 10 Punkte
1977 bis 80 / Rückgang auf ca. 2 Punkte
ab 1986 Anstieg des DGR auf ca. 40 Punkte in 99 !!!
1987 siehe oben
27.07.2002 / DGR bei 26,9 Punkten !!!!

FAZIT aus der Dow - Gold - Ratio - Ich interpretiere extrem langfristige Zyklen dahingehend , dass Gold in den kommenden Jahren weiter steigen wird , aber eine neue Super - Hausse am US - Aktienmarkt erst einmal nicht ansteht.
Die Aktion der letzten Woche ist sehr bullish für das Gold. Alle schwachen Hände und Warmduscher sind nun abgeschüttelt worden und ein paar Minen werden wohl einige Ihrer Hedges dabei geschlossen haben. Nun können wir ein schönes Rennen auf das $330er Niveau machen.

peter.wedemeier1
Ich glaube, das die Manipulation alle Stop Loss Orders in den letzten Tagen/Wochen auszulösen und alle schwachen hände und Warmduscher abzuschütteln sehr gut in dem Goldsektor gearbeitet hat. DROOY von einem Hoch bei $5,80 runter auf $2,20. Das ist Wall St. Korruption in seiner reinsten Form und es gibt keine guten Gründe dafür! Was hat sich denn seit Mai/Juni verändert? Der breite Markt (Dow Jones, Dax, Nasdaq, Nemax) ist nun viel tiefer und der letzte Rebound ist ein großer Kopffehler! Wie lange wird sich diese Korruption noch erlauben fort zu setzen? Wie lange werden die Leute erlauben, das dieses sich fortsetzt?
Wann wird Ehrlichkeit, Logik und guter Sinn erlaubt sein in dem Markt zurück zu kehren? Wann werden die Leute aufhören den lügenden Medien/Analysten zu zu hören und anfangen an sich selbst zu denken anstatt weiterhin Schafe zu sein? Wieviel werden die Leute bei Ihren Dow Jones-, DAX-, Nasdaq- und Nemax-Werten noch verlieren, bevor sie aufwachen? Wenn die Weltregierungen korrupt sind, dann leiden Ihre Bevölkerungen! Einfach: Fangt endlich an zu denken! Physisch ist Gold ein hartes Asset. Kauft etwas Gold von Nicht Hedgern!
Ich denke wir werden einen langfristigen Gold bull market sehen und erleben, der mehrere Jahre, ecvtl. Jahrzehnte andauern wird. Sei kein Schaf und denke an dich selbst!

Besucht mal und lest ein bißchen!
http://usa.gold.com
http://www.gold.eagle.com

peter.wedemeier1
...so viel zur Ehrlichleit von Durban:
DRD hat einen Energie-Hedge in den Büchern (oder gerade nicht), von dem bislang nichts bekannt gegeben wurde. Für die nächsten drei Jahre erwachsen daraus Kosten in Höhe von geschätzen 500 bis 700 Mio Rand.
In Zahlen: Durban bezahlt Energie mit Gold und muss aus einer dieser Vereinbarungen nun drei Jahre lang die Differenz auf monatl. 15.000 Unzen zwischen dem festgeschriebenen Preis von Rand 2.500 und dem aktuellen Preis (ca. 3.100) zahlen.
Dieser Deal stammt wohl aus der Zeit, in der Durban mit dem Rücken an der Wand stand.
(Quelle: theminingweb.com)
Bin zwar generell auch positiv für Gold und ungehedge Minen, aber Meldungen wie diese machen vieles kaputt.
Und eben diese Meldungen sollten Beachtung finden, bevor alle Kursabschläge blind auf die bösen Mächte geschoben werden.
Für alles sind die halt auch nicht verantwortlich.
Gold Lease Raten:
Trotz des sell-offs beim Goldpreis in den letzten Wochen haben die Gold Lease Raten fortgesetzt zu steigen. Ich denke, das ist der Beweis, das der Goldpreis bald entschieden ansteigen wird.

peter.wedemeier1
Korrektur zur Meldung über Durbans sog. Ehrlichkeit:

Durban muss die genannten Kosten nicht direkt bezahlen, nein die Vereinbarung wirkt wie ein Terminverkauf (=Hedge). Mit den 180.000 Unzen p.a. sind ca. 15% der jährlichen Produktion leider doch noch "gesichert".
Eine Auflösung dieses Energie-Vertrages würde ca. 550 bis 700 Mio Rand kosten.
Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited [DRD] is a dynamic, driven and independent gold mining company. Based in South Africa, with substantial operations in that country and an operation in Papua New Guinea, the company was established in 1895. DRD’s mission is to maintain its independent status, and to focus on extending ore reserve life safely and profitably.

Gold is DRD’s main product, derived both from deep-level and open-cast gold mining, and from the retreatment of surface material. The current operations have been amalgamated and acquired since 1997. Since then, production has risen from under 100 000 ounces a year to 1.1 million ounces. DRD now ranks as fourth largest in terms of gold production in South Africa and 13th internationally.

The company’s resource base as at 30 June 2001 was 1.2 billion tonnes, containing 65 million ounces. Reserves were 190 million tonnes, containing 14.4 million ounces of proved and probable gold. Underground reserves comprised 11.8 million ounces.

The market capitalisation of this growth-orientated company as at 30 June 2001 was approximately R1.4 billion.

DRD’s South African operations comprise:
• Blyvooruitzicht Mine;
• Consolidated Crown Gold Recoveries;
• the North West Operations [Hartebeestfontein and Buffelsfontein Mines]; and
• the curtailed West Wits and Durban Deep Mines.

DRD’s operation in Papua New Guinea is the Tolukuma Mine.

DRD is a public company with its primary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange SA and secondary listings on the London Stock Exchange, the Brussels Bourse, the Australian Stock Exchange, the Paris Bourse and Nasdaq in the United States. The company’s shares are also traded on the Berlin OTC Market and the Regulated Unofficial Market of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS
February, 1895 | DRD incorporated.
1992 | Restructuring of DRD’s holding group [Rand Mines] and transfer of management services to Randgold & Exploration Company Limited
1995 | Restructuring of management services for Buffelsfontein.
January, 1995 | DRD acquires the entire issued share capital of Rand Leases for R111m.
September, 1995 | DRD acquires assets from First Wesgold for R17m.
January, 1996 | DRD acquires Roodepoort Gold Mine [Pty] Limited and associated mineral rights for R1.4m
January, 1997 | DRD acquires Rand Leases Royalty for R13.2m.
August, 1997 | DRD terminates service agreements with Randgold & Exploration Company Limited.
September, 1997 | Blyvooruitzicht and Buffelsfontein become wholly owned subsidiaries of DRD for R256m.
| DRD acquires South Wits [now known as the Argonaut Project] mineral rights from Randgold & Exploration Company Limited for R55.5m.
September, 1998 | Crown becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of DRD for R89m.
| DRD adopts strategy to establish a production base in Australia.
August, 1999 | DRD acquires Hartebeestfontein Division from Avgold Limited for R45m.
January, 2000 | DRD acquires Hargraves Resources NL for R184m.
May 2000 | Mark Wellesley-Wood appointed as director
June, 2000 | DRD acquires 97% of Dome.
September, 2000 | DRD closes the loss-making underground and surface operations at Durban Deep and West Wits sections.
November 2000 | Frans Weideman appointed as director

http://www.drd.co.za/
Zeichen von Bodenbildung in der letzten Handelsstunde.



Das Schlimmste ist ausgestanden. Gerade jetzt HL, DROOY und GFI!!!

peter.wedemeier1
DROOY Strong Buy!

August 21, 2002

Closing Price: $3.08 (+4.09%)

Volume: 1.90 million

Critical underlying support: $2.85

Critical overhead resistance: $3.10

"We asked the question "Is it `over` for Durban Deep?" in Tuesday`s report. Our conclusion was "not yet" since our reading of the chart had Durban getting a final chance of overcoming immediate overhead supply on Tuesday and staying within the confines of the 10-week parabolic bowl in the daily chart. We also wrote, "By opening above $2.85 and staying above this level early on Tuesday, Durban has a chance of breaking above the immediate overhead resistance at $3.10, which is also visible in the 5-day chart in the form of a 4-day declining trend line." It was well and good that Durban opened above $2.85 and broke the 4-day downtrend, yet the trading activity for Tuesday proved that Durban did not pass its most important test.

We added, "Also visible in the daily chart is a small wedge-like pattern that is being tested right now on the downside. If Durban breaks above the top of this pattern (which corresponds with Tuesday`s critical overhead resistance of $3.10), Durban will have been granted at least a temporary reprieve." While Durban did find temporary support above $2.85 on Tuesday (the intra-day low was $2.96), it failed to break through overhead resistance at $3.10, which was Tuesday`s peak price. We have a feeling that today (Wednesday) is the final testing day for Durban, so it`s make or break for Durban with respect to overcoming (or being overcome) by $3.10.

Note in the latest 5-day tick chart that three immediate-term trend lines converge at precisely $3.10 early Wednesday. The 2-day flat-top to the triangle pattern in the tick chart, the upward-sloping trend line that forms the lower boundary of this triangle, and the much longer declining trend line that represents the key resistance for confirming a Durban breakout. This line will determine whether DROOY is strong enough to overcome the overhead supply or not.

Durban does not necessarily have to cross above $3.10 immediate out of the starting gate on Wednesday, it may well pull back from the initial contact with the overhead supply at the open and test the lower boundary of the 2-day range between $2.85-$3.10. As long as $2.85 holds as support Durban will still have a chance to rally above the trend line. But all bets are off if Durban crosses below $2.85 on Wednesday, as it will represent a bearish sell signal confirmation. To repeat, breaking above resistance at $3.10 early on Tuesday gives Durban a second lease on life.

Finally, and this is a crucial consideration, if Durban does somehow manage to break above $3.10 (and close above this level) on Wednesday, it MUST be on a noticeably increase in trading volume. Durban has been plagued by low-volume rallies for weeks and cannot afford another low-volume false breakout signal. The buying volume has got to come onto the tape in order for Durban to be rescued from the doldrums. If it does not, the sellers will get their way and Durban risks breaking below $2.85 for a trip down to the next benchmark area at $2.50 or lower."

Clif Droke
Durban Roodepoort Deep
Quality and Value in a Stock Highly Geared to the Price of Gold

by Clive Maund
27 August, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/082702/maund082702.h…
Wenn Bush am 11. Sep. seine Angriffspläne vorstellt dürfte das nicht ohne Folgen für den Goldpreis bleiben. 230 $ sind in den nächsten 2 - 3 Wochen drin.
Ich denke, das im Monat September noch einige Banken (JP Morgan, Citigroup), die massiv Short beim Gold sind in sehr große Schwierigkeiten geraten werden. -> Short Squeeze :) Dieses könnte das Gold ganz schnell auf Höhen bringen, die sich momentan noch niemand so richtig vorstellen kann. Ein paar Techniker haben vor kurzem einen Goldpreis von $2000-5000/oz veröffentlicht. Mich würde es nicht überraschen, wenn wir bis Jahresende einen Goldpreis um die $800 sehen würden. Und in einem Jahr $900-1200/oz. Selbst Placer Dome rechnet am Jahresende mit einem Goldpreis von $340,-. Wo der Goldpreis am Jahresende tatsächlich stehen wird, werden wir am 31.12. sehen können und wo er in einem Jahr tatsächlich stehen wird werden wir am 05.09.03 sehen.

peter.wedemeier1
MACD sehr stark und positiv; sehr gute Kursbewegung (Long Empfehlung)

Geht long bei DROOY. Dieses ist die am schnellsten wachsende Gold Aktie auf einer price per volume Basis. Technik sieht großartig aus und genauso das Spot Gold.




peter.wedemeier1
Ein Barrons Artikel!

Monday, September 9, 2002
Miner Keys

Longtime gold booster says the metal is due for a rousing comeback

An Interview With James Turk - Gold appears to have broken out of its longtime funk. But is the move just a flash in the pan or something more substantial? For an answer, we turned to one of the more obsessed gold authorities we know, James Turk, publisher of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report newsletter and founder and managing director of Goldmoney.com, a company striving to make the metal the currency of choice in global commerce, especially in cross-border transactions. An international banker and manager of the commodity department for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for much of the `Eighties, Turk spent most of the `Nineties providing strategic advice and forecasts to investment managers. To learn why he thinks gold is on the cusp of a new bull market and which stocks he`s focused on, please read on.

--Sandra Ward

Barron`s: Gold has had quite a run. What can we expect going forward?

Turk: The move we had earlier in the year was so good, we were bound to see some consolidation in July and August, which is normally a quiet time of the year for gold, anyway, and that`s what we got. Now, my expectation is we will test resistance at the $325-an-ounce threshold again in either September or October. I believe $325 will be crossed this year and that will mark the beginning of the bull market in gold.


Turk believes his "fear index" now favors gold.


Gold had been in a clear down trend through the `Nineties until May 1999, when the Bank of England said it would sell half its gold reserves. That resulted in panic selling and gold bottomed in July 1999 at $252 an ounce. It worked its way higher, then tested that low in early 2000 before climbing the past few years to current levels. What we`ve seen is a huge base being formed and the price going higher as the metal has been accumulated. Once the $325 level is taken out, that will signal the beginning of a new bull market.

Q: We`ve had a bear market in gold for 20 years. So how long will a bull market last?
A: I have a long-term model I use to identify trends in the gold market that I call the "fear index." The index reflects the relative position of gold compared to the dollar. When fear about monetary problems is rising, people move to gold from dollars, and the fear index captures these moves. The index is calculated by taking the U.S. gold reserve, multiplying it by the gold price and dividing it by M3, the broadest measure of money supply, to quantify the percentage of gold relative to dollars in circulation and determine the level of confidence in the dollar and any possible cyclical patterns. The fear index shows four distinct bullish cycles for gold since 1971, when the gold standard was abandoned: inflation in the early and late `Seventies, the savings-and-loan crisis in the `Eighties and then the collapse of the exchange-rate mechanism in the early `Nineties when George Soros broke the Bank of England. We just got the fifth buy signal at the end of May. At the least, these cycles tend to last a couple of years. We don`t know how long this one is going to last, but my expectation is we`re at the beginning of another bullish cycle that will last at least two years.

Q: But if you`re looking at gold reserves as a percentage of M3,doesn`t flooding the system with liquidity skew the result?
A: All I`m doing is taking the year-to-year growth in M3 at the end of each month and plotting it on a chart. Back in the 1970s, we had double-digit inflation rates because we had double-digit rates of growth in M3. Then, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker`s mandate was to reduce inflation, and he did it by reducing the growth rate of M3. Fed Chairman Greenspan continued those disinflationary policies when he came into office in 1987. In 1992 we had a short period of deflation when M3 declined from the previous year`s level. This 1992 period is significant, because it marks the blowup in the exchange-rate mechanism. But the Volcker-Greenspan policies became so painful to European countries, Italy and Great Britain specifically, that they chose to break from the exchange-rate mechanism and pursue their own course. That was a message for reinflation in the `Nineties and we`ve had massive growth in M3 since then. The early part of this reinflation led to the 1993-1994 bull market in gold and gold stocks. And the reinflation has continued.

Now we`re headed to the next stage, which isn`t supply-driven, but rather a demand-driven issue. When you talk about inflation or deflation, you`re talking about the quantity of dollars and therefore the supply of dollars. Yet we need to focus on demand for dollars rather than the supply of dollars, because we assume demand remains constant though it doesn`t work that way in the real world. The demand for the Argentine peso disappeared overnight. I am not saying that`s going to happen with the dollar, but the dollar nevertheless has fallen in the foreign-exchange markets, which suggests that the Fed isn`t contracting the growth of M3 fast enough to maintain the dollar`s strength relative to other currencies of the world.

Q: So are we heading into a deflationary period?
A: I don`t think so. I wouldn`t call it inflationary; I wouldn`t call it deflationary. We will see rising prices, not because of the dramatic increase in supply of dollars, but because of dramatic decreases in demand for dollars. The supply of dollars may remain the same, but if demand declines, the dollar purchases less, which expressed in terms of prices means that prices will be rising.

Q: Talk about China`s role in the gold dynamic.
A: The Chinese impact on gold will be extremely profound. The Chinese-language character for gold is the same as the one for money. As far as the Chinese are concerned, gold is money. The Chinese central bank reported an increase in their gold holdings to the International Monetary Fund last year. But the number is still small, about 500 tons compared with 395 previously reported. The general market view, though, is that the Chinese central bank has been accumulating gold and not reporting all their holdings to the IMF.

Q: Somebody must be selling it to them.
A: Now you are getting into the whole issue of who is selling the gold and who is shorting gold. There is a point of view that, in addition to some mining companies, banks and other financial institutions have been borrowing gold to fund dollar assets and earn a spread similar to that of the yen carry trade of a few years ago. People were borrowing yen at 0.5% to fund dollar assets and making 5% on the spread until the yen started to appreciate. Now, gold is being borrowed from the central banks and sold into the market in exchange for dollars. That`s fine in a declining gold-price environment, but in a rising gold environment it can kill you. We know the central banks loan the gold, but it`s unclear which ones are doing it and how much they are loaning out.

There is evidence to suggest the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a quasi-government agency under the direct control of the U.S. Treasury secretary and the president, has been active in the gold market. If the gold price were to rise, the multinational banks who are the big shorts in the gold market wouldn`t be able to cover their shorts and would take big hits. That`s why the ESF is involved to help manage the price of gold. It isn`t unprecedented that gold is loaned or flows into the market. What`s unprecedented is the lack of disclosure. My sense of it is that there`s more than 10,000 tons loaned into the market by central banks. If that`s true, that`s four times annual production. Can you imagine if people were short four times wheat production in one year? There is systemic risk here.

Q: Are you recommending people buy gold bullion, or should they buy gold stocks?
A: People make a mistake thinking bullion is an investment. Mining stocks fall into the investment category, but bullion is cash. It isn`t an investment. You buy bullion for liquidity purposes. You buy bullion for safety purposes, because there is no return to bullion unless you lend it out. It`s clear, though, that people see gold as an increasingly important component of their cash and liquidity holdings.


According to Turk, "People make a mistake thinking bullion is an investment. Mining stocks fall into the stock category, but bullion is cash. It isn`t an investment."


Q: What about gold stocks?
A: There are two models that I like to use. The XAU, which is the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, is a basket of about nine different mining stocks, including the majors and some good quality second-tier stocks as well. Tracking the 12-month year-over-year change in the XAU provides a good sell signal if it registers 50% growth over the previous year, regardless of the price of the XAU. Conversely, when the XAU declines 25% to 30% from the previous year, it`s typically a good buy signal in terms of relative appreciation.

Another model I find useful is one that quantifies how many gold grams are needed to purchase one XAU share. For example, the XAU now trades at about 72. A gram of gold is about $10. By dividing the gram price into the XAU price, we see it takes about seven grams of gold to purchase one XAU. This is significant, because historically the gold-mining stocks have been relatively inexpensive and represented good buys at times when it takes about six grams to buy an XAU share. When it takes 10 or more grams to purchase one XAU, the mining stocks tend to be relatively expensive. Even though six months ago we had a breakout from the six-year downtrend in gold stocks, we`ve retraced and we`re close to a buying opportunity where gold stocks look cheap compared with gold bullion.

Q: But what about the fundamentals of gold stocks? Don`t you have to look at hedging and what it costs to get the gold out of the ground, rather than just gold`s price?
A: There are a number of measures to use to evaluate gold stocks. The first one to consider is whether a company has hedged future production. That`s the great divide. I recommend gold-mining stocks that don`t hedge or have minimal hedged positions, because if the gold price rises, the stocks that are hedged are giving up potential cash flow by being forced to deliver into those hedges below the market price. There are a number of companies that have losses on their hedges simply because the gold price has risen beyond the price at which they sold forward.

Q: What else do you consider before buying a gold-mining stock?
A: The second consideration is the cost of production -- not just the operating cost, but the total cost basis to get the gold out of the ground. In this regard, there are two types of mines: underground mines, with deep shafts that enable the ore to be mined, and open-pit mines from which the gold is dug out. Generally speaking, the underground mines have a high capital cost, and the open-pit mines have a relatively lower capital cost but higher operating costs.

Say a mine has a total production cost of $280 an ounce, and the price of gold is $300 an ounce. It makes $20 per ounce. Say another mine has a total production cost of $100, gold is at $300 and so it makes a profit of $200. If the gold price were to rise to $320 from $300, the mine that has a $280 total cost is doubling its profit from $20 to $40 per ounce, whereas the one that has a $100 cost is only increasing its profit by 10%. The company with the higher total production cost is operating on the margin, and any increase in the gold price has a much more immediate impact on the bottom line than it would for the low-cost operators. In a bull market, the marginal stocks will tend to outperform. There`s more risk associated with them, but as the gold price rises there`s more potential as well. It always comes back to risk versus return. The nonmarginal low-cost producers won`t have as much appreciation, perhaps, but they will go up as well.

Table: Turk`s Picks

Company Symbol Recent Price
Harmony Gold Mining HGMCY $15.53
Durban Deep DROOY 4.09
AngloGold AU 24.48
Goldcorp GG 10.90
Newmont Mining NEM 29.22
Glamis Gold GLG 9.73
Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM 15.58
Iamgold IMGDF 3.70

Pans
Newcrest Mining NCMGF $3.75
Sons of Gwalia SOGAF 2.42


Q: What are other factors to consider?
A: No. 1 is management and the quality of the balance sheet, but you also have to look at the quality of the mine, the life of the mine and political risks.

Q: So it wouldn`t be wise to just buy a basket of gold stocks to play a rise in the price of gold?
A: I wouldn`t recommend it. I would recommend that you pick and choose very carefully companies that aren`t hedged, whose managements have a demonstrated record of success and the potential for paying dividends down the road. As the gold price goes up, the mine has two options: It can take the excess cash flow and expand its business to other areas and buy more mines, or it can pay a dividend to their shareholders over the life of the mine. Some of these are very long-lived mines.

Q: Which companies are you recommending?
A: In South Africa, my favorite is Harmony Gold Mining. This is a company that changed the face of mining in South Africa. Under the old system, mining houses would operate a series of mines and they would collect a fee for doing that. That system broke down. Harmony emerged as a great management team with some very good properties, and they built up one of the world`s biggest mining companies. It`s got a relatively high cost structure, so it`s leveraged to the gold price. Durban Deep is a more speculative turnaround story that is also highly leveraged to the gold price. It was a marginal mine and there was a lot of uncertainty about its future. They put a good management team in place with Mark Wellesley-Wood, the new chief executive, but I wanted him to put together two good quarters before I recommended the stock. He did that in the second and third quarter last year.

Q: Anything more recent?
A: In the last couple of months, I recommended adding AngloGold. Anglo-Gold is the largest South African mining company and it`s the second-largest gold producer in the world. It`s been aggressively reducing its hedge book. And it`s a good dividend payer. Plus, they have a lot of geographical diversification.

Q: What are you looking at in North America?
A: The premier stock is Goldcorp. It`s a wonderful situation. They are mining the world`s richest gold mine in Canada in an area that`s been a major producing area for 70 years. Their existing mine has many years to go. They have a good management team and one of the best balance sheets and cash-flow positions in the mining industry. It has shown tremendous price appreciation over the past 10 years and it`s outperformed the S&P 500. It has been a growth stock because they discovered a new deposit next to an old mine that is now the world`s richest gold mine. They`re raking it in. To put it into perspective, they`re mining gold with a grade of more than two ounces per ton. Many mines can make money on gold with a grade of a fifth or less of an ounce per ton. It`s a tremendous company, and even though it`s done extremely well, there`s still a significant opportunity. They pay a dividend and I expect the dividend will continue not only to be secure but will increase along with the price of gold. They just announced a dividend increase of 20% Wednesday. It`s a real Cinderella story.

Q: What else do you like?
A: Newmont Mining I like. It`s got a hedge position bigger than I would like to see. The hedge came from Normandy Mining in the three-way merger of Franco-Nevada, Normandy and Newmont. Management has indicated they wanted to reduce the hedge position. However, they`ve been very slow in going about it. For now I am willing to live with the situation because management owns a big chunk of shares and I like that commitment. Newmont is the world`s biggest producer. They`ve got some great mines and good geographical diversification. The balance sheet is much improved after the merger and they have the tactical brilliance of President Pierre Lassonde on their side, which to my mind goes a long way.

Q: Any other more recent buys?
A: I`ve just added a few more to my buy list, one U.S. company and two Canadian companies. The U.S. company is Glamis Gold. They are very good operators. They`re nonhedged and they`ve just acquired a couple of Central American properties. One of the two Canadian companies is Agnico-Eagle Mines, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. They have no hedging policy on precious metals, though they hedge some base metals and run an underground mine in Canada. The other one is Iamgold. It jointly owns two mines in Mali with AngloGold, which is the operator. And both Mali properties are world-class. Iamgold gets a share of the revenue as an owner and Anglo gets a share for owning and operating. Iamgold is a cash cow, and because it`s completely unhedged, it`s a very, very attractive way to benefit from a rising gold-price environment.

Q: What don`t you like?
A: I don`t recommend any Australian stocks now, simply because their hedge positions are underwater. Newcrest Mining is one pan; its hedge book is negative US$440 million. But my top pan is Australia`s Sons of Gwalia. It has a US$340 million unrealized loss on its hedge book and is relatively more hedged than Newcrest, and its properties aren`t as good.

Q: Are they at risk of bankruptcy?
A: There are two points of view. Some will argue that they don`t risk bankruptcy because eventually they`re going to produce the gold. In theory, that`s true, as long as there`s no operating problems. But they may receive pressure from the banks because the banks don`t want the companies to carry these huge unrealized loss positions in the event of a disruption in the production of the gold. In 1999, when gold rallied, we saw two mining companies -- Ashanti and Cambior -- go bankrupt in everything but name. Their hedged positions killed them. They were selling aggressively on the way down and got caught when gold rose to more than $300 an ounce. Now the question is: Who will be caught at $350 an ounce?

Q: Thanks, James.
Beim Goldpreis bildet sich seit 1999 eine Untertassenformation heraus und wir sind in diesen Tagen am Henkel angekommen. Wenn der Wiederstand um 325 gebrochen wird gibt es ein wahres Feuerwerk !!
Also die nächsten Wochen werden spannend.
gruß M.
bemerkenswert dass Goldminen
jetzt im Barrons näher betrachtet werden.

Barrons ist schon etwas besonderes unter
den Zeitschriften.

Barrons Artikel!

Monday, September 9, 2002
Miner Keys
DROOY ist sehr gut von der §3,20 wieder nach oben weggesprungen! Nun benötigen wir noch einen Sprung um die Überverkauft Kondition zu verlassen auf $3,60. Wir werden nun eine Rallye durch die $3,40 sehen!

peter.wedemeier1
Gold Futures über Nacht gestiegen!
Der Aktien und Währungsmarkt war gestern meistens nicht entschieden genug, welche Richtung er nehmen soll. Aber es gab auch das Terroristen Bombing von Bali dieses könnte Investoren verursacht haben das Gold zu heben als eine Flucht in Sicherheit. Manche von den Aktien vom breiten Markt (DOW JONES, Nasdaq) trafen frische 4-Jahres-Tiefs in der letzten Woche aber erholten sich temporär! und das trotz der Tatsache das die Einzelhandelszahlen schwach waren und das Verbrauchervertrauen ein 9-Jahres-Tief machte.
Der Kongreß hat President Bush die Resolution gegeben, die er wollte. Es scheint auch, das der Irak sich nicht gemäß mit der UN Resolution verhält, und das ein Regimewechsel unvermeidbar ist.
Der Goldspot Preis sollte nun sehr stark steigen können, nachdem die Unterstützung vom Haupttrend bei $308,- gestern gehalten hat. Und mit dem steigenden Goldpreis sollten auch die Minen steigen. Beobachtet nun, wie der breite Markt DAX, DOW JONES, Nasdaq und Nemax sich nun aufmacht um neue historische und "dramatische" Tiefs zu setzen. Nachdem alle wie schwachsinnige (Konjunktur und Weltwirtschaft geht nach unten und die Aktien nach oben, LOL!:) Aktien gekauft und damit eine Sucker Rallye hingelegt haben. Neue "dramtische" und historische Tiefs wird es alleine schon aus Enttäuschung geben und das nun noch mehr Anleger endgültig die Nase voll vom Aktienmarkt haben. LOL.:)

peter.wedemeier1

p.s.:
Goldtrader Martin Weiss kauft DROOY. Er glaubt das sich das Gold in einer ähnlichen Umgebung findet wie in den 1970`n verursacht durch cost-push Inflation aufgrund steigender Öl- und Nahrungsmittelpreise. Die arabischen Staaten (Öl!) versuchen momentan ihren Dinar zur Währung Nr. 1 auf der Welt zu machen. Es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, das sie damit Erfolg haben werden. Der arabische Dinar ist nun durch Gold gedeckt. Nur eine Währung, die durch das Gold gedeckt ist, kann in Zukunft nur noch die Währung Nr. 1 auf der Welt sein. Nicht der Dollar, er wird die Rolle der Nr. 1 als Weltwährung verlieren! Martin Weiss glaubt, das DROOY in den nächsten 1 1/2 Jahren aus den genannten Gründen sehr leicht über $10,- steigen könnte.
JP Morgan hat gestern Gold an der COMEX gekauft, man muß wohl eher sagen, das sie ein Teil von Ihrer riesigen Short Position eingedeckt haben. Trotzdem ein gutes Zeichen.

peter.wedemeier1
To: TA Students
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: 10/18/2002
RE: Fibonacci Retrenchments -- Support & Resistance


http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/lessons/1…




DROOY Durban Deep
Note the Fibonacci support line slightly above $3. That has held Durban on the lows of 5 days. Because of this, a support line has formed on those lows. The power down trend line remains the primary indicator here. A break above the PDT intra-day with a cross over of the MACD 3-6-7 pending and an up tick on the Momentum 14 would be serious evidence that DROOY was making the turn.


"Positive price action.

There has been an up trend established and market on the chart from a low late July to the recent two lows. MACD is supporting and Momentum is trying hard to make a positive turn."

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/10…


Durben Deep: Please see my Q&A posted today on DROOY. It is the mystery of "Are they hedged or are they not?" If it turns out to be as it seems to read, that they are simply paying the piper for the cost of closing, then so what? They did the right thing. It should all show itself in the TA. It looks like a down wedge (Edwards & McGee page #678 & page #209) to me that have bullish implication. I would wait to see how it resolves itself before acting.
Richmont Mines Inc Weekly Earnings Information
Monday, October 28, 2002 05:12:27 PM - Nelsons




Oct 26, 2002 (Thomson Financial via COMTEX) --

Company: Richmont Mines Inc (C$) (AMEX:RIC.CA)
Actual EPS for FY End (12/2001): 0.28 Current FY High EPS Estimate: 0.62 Current FY Low EPS Estimate: 0.50
Current FY Consensus Estimate: 0.56 Change from Previous Consensus Estimate: 0.00
Current P/E Ratio: 5.4 P/E Ratio for Next FY: 3.8 Current Industry P/E Ratio: 30.15
52 Week High Price: 4.40 52 Week Low Price: 0.80
URL: www.thomsonfinancial.com
Copyright (c) 2002, Thomson Financial. All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold futures week in review
Gold Futures Report

By Clif Droke
©2002 Publishing Concepts

November 4, 2002




http://www.321gold.com/editorials/droke/gold/110402_gold.htm…
The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition


It`s all bad.

The litany of economic reports that came out yesterday
reads likes the opening scenes a Stephen King novel. The
carnage hasn`t taken place yet, but any reader worth his
salt knows what`s coming.

The victim? Well... in this case, the US economy: The
number of people looking for work but unable to find it
climbed to 8.2 million; overall unemployment inched it`s
way back to 5.7 percent; manufacturing numbers dropped to
the lowest level in a year; and consumer spending - the key
ingredient in the Fed`s favorite recovery recipe - dropped
six tenths of a percent in September despite an increase
personal incomes.

Like a frat boy who`s downed one too many beers, it appears
the American consumer said `no more` in October ... and
headed off to a different part of the house to find a
toilet. Zero percent financing can`t even lure the bloated
to consume any more. Ford sales fell 34% in October. GM`s
fell 32%. Chrysler`s dropped 31%.

"The consumer response to incentives," Lehman Brother`s
economist Joseph Abate says a little more politely in the
Washington Post, "appears to have gotten weaker with each
re-introduction of interest free financing." (You think?!)

Strategic Investment`s Dan Denning sees the slowdown as a
self-fulfilling prophecy. "Spending on cars typically makes
up for 25% of consumer spending," Denning explains. "A car
is a `big ticket` item. People wait to buy them until they
can afford them. And once they`ve bought them, demand
slacks off. By frontloading the year`s car sales over the
summer, the carmakers guaranteed an anemic fall.

"Now that cars are no longer driving increased consumer
spending, and powering GDP growth, consumers are more aware
than ever the economy is weak and getting weaker. And in a
self-fulfilling way, anyone who WOULD consider buying a car
will put it off until economic conditions look more
promising."

"With momentum flagging," Lehman`s Abate suggests, "the
rapid erosion in confidence and the pickup in uncertainty
are likely to severely restrain consumer and investment
spending over the next three to six month... Likewise, a
sharp pullback in durable goods orders in September
suggests that businesses are not yet ready to expand
capacity."

Yet... after all these numbers hit the fan... the stock
market rallied. Huh?

The Dow gained 120 points to finish the week at 8517. The
Nasdaq scooted ahead 30 points to 1360. The S&P 500 climbed
15, to 900. In fact, October 2002, in what will no doubt be
one of the more spectacular and befuddling bear market
rallies in US economic history, posted one of the best
months on the Dow in 15 years.

How do you make sense of it?

The standard theory being debated in the mainstream media
on this fine Saturday is that "all the bad news, is really
good news" because it will prompt the Fed to cut rates
(again) when they convene next week. Okay...

If you`ve taken leave of your senses, and you attempt to
follow their reasoning, you`ll be left with the impression
that the only important question unanswered is whether the
Fed will shed another 25... or 50... basis points. We here
at the Daily Reckoning have another question: have they
forgotten what happened after the last 11 cuts?



Cheers,


Addison Wiggin,
The Daily Reckoning

P.S. As far as the Golds go we should not worry about which miner is the best. Pick one or two of the top ten and don`t worry which is the first out of the gate or across the finish line.
They will all cross a winner. When gold rises and stays, the playing field will all level out.
I personaly like Drooy because it is a great trading stock. I can trade this stock
market news

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DROOY (NASDAQ SC) DURBAN ROODEPOORT DEEP LTD.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is DRD`s Argonaut Fantastic Odyssey?

MONDAY , OCTOBER 28, 2002 03:12 PM

Oct 27, 2002 (Miningweb/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX)

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.10…
THE ADEN FORECAST -MARY ANNE & PAMELA ADEN
MINI-COMMENTARY -November 1, 2002

GOLD: Up again

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/Aden.html
Durban Deep`s (DROOY) downtrend is believed to have ended in recent days at big round number support at $3.00 and it is now turning up,
Half Full is suddenly Half Empty
(and many gold stocks look like they are about to come to life again)

by Clive Maund
Archives
8 November, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund110802.html
COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR:

This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.

What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.

I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.

Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:

Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.

This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.

We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.
@alle
wäre nicht schlecht,wenn mal einer von euch ab und an die Berichte von unserem lieben p.wedermeier mal auf Deutsch übersetzt,damit auch die analphabeten was zu lesen haben!
MFG Uwe
@Peter Wedemeier
Ich finde, Du übertreibst ein wenig.
Für mich ist das ganz einfach:
regelmäßig die Kolumnen von Marc Faber lesen bei www.gloomboomdoom.com, www.dailyreckoning.com und www.welt.de und Albrecht O. Pfeiffer bei www.boerse.de.
Problemlos sind unter den liquiden Minen
GFI, HGMCY und NEM sowie mit Auslandsdepot ASA.
Spekulativ sind RANGY und DROOY.
Die legt man sich hin und wartet, und wenn die Unze vierstellig ist, wovon Dr. Faber ausgeht (im Gegensatz zum Dow Jones), ist man ein reicher Mann.
Fazit: Schlaftabletten kaufen wie weiland Kostolany!
A package of cheapies that you can buy and put away for the third phase of the gold bull market -- BGO, CBJ, DROOY, ECO, GSS, KGC, SLGLF, CDE.

China and Gold

Richard Russell
Snippet
Dow Theory Letters
4 December, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120402.html
DRD REPORTS 54% JUMP IN EARNINGS PER SHARE
30 January 2003
168/03-jmd

Embargo: Not for release before 12:30 midday (SA time) on Thursday, 30 January 2003


54% jump in EPS to 12.3 US cents


Record monthly gold production at Blyvoor


US$66 million raised through convertible note issue


Project Boost kicks off


DRD acquires 14% of Emperor

DRD REPORTS 54% JUMP IN EARNINGS PER SHARE

Assisted by a higher gold price received and a gain on financial instruments, Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited (DRD) reported a 54% increase in earnings per share to 12.3 US cents in the quarter ended 31 December 2002, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mark Wellesley-Wood announced today (Thursday, 30 January).

While attributable gold production was marginally lower at 225 241 ounces, DRD continued to benefit from its unhedged status with a US$6 per ounce increase in the average gold price received to US$321 per ounce. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 54% to US$22.5 million from US$14.6 million.

Cash operating costs - incurred mostly in South African rands - increased by 7% to US$56.8 million due to the 7% increase in the value of the rand against the US dollar.

The volatility of the R/$ exchange rate - amounting to 40% over the last 12 months - was most unwelcome, placing margins under pressure and making future mine planning uncertain, Wellesley-Wood said.

Cash and cash equivalents for the December quarter amounted to US$87 million, contributing to a current ratio of 200%, compared with 93% in the previous quarter. Long-term loans, excluding the US$66 million raised through DRD`s convertible note issue during the quarter, reduced by US$4.1 million to US$10.2 million. The interest-bearing debt to equity ratio increased from 27.1% to 161.6% due to the convertible note issue, while the interest-bearing debt to capitalisation ratio increased to 10%.

The proceeds of the convertible note issue, almost all of which had been taken up by US investors, Wellesley-Wood said, would be deployed into the company`s Project Boost, designed to lower costs and increase gold production, and into other growth projects, added Wellesley-Wood.

While the company had taken a 14% stake in Emperor Mines of Australia during the quarter, its intention was to increase this to 19.9%. Wellesley-Wood announced that he and DRD non-executive director David Baker had been appointed to the Emperor board. Emperor`s gold production in the quarter under review was 26 422 ounces.

Commenting on the performance of DRD`s operations, Wellesley-Wood said the expansion programme at Blyvooruitzicht continued to gather momentum; in December, the operation recorded gold production of 22 634 ounces, the highest in 10 years.

At Hartebeestfontein, a seismic event and underground fire at 5 Shaft during the quarter had restricted the volume of higher grade material entering the mill and slowed up the expansion of the Medium Grade areas at 6 Shaft. To address the operation`s cost base, the 7 Shaft gold plant had been closed and contractors replaced with company employees. Available ore in the open pit had declined due to geological factors and was now expected to last only until April 2003.

At Tolukuma, Wellesley-Wood said, stoping had begun on the newly-discovered Tinnabar vein. While this had helped to supplement immediate reserves available for mining, there was a need to increase development rates in order to access new areas, with a consequent short-term, adverse impact on costs. Exploration results from the Kunda vein had been disappointing and the focus was now on deeper drilling of the mine`s Miliahamba structure.

Crown Gold Recoveries (CGR), 40% owned and managed by DRD, produced 48 934 ounces of gold in the December quarter but costs rose from US$210/oz to US$278/oz due mainly to industrial action at East Rand Proprietary Mines Limited (ERPM). Subsequently, Wellesley-Wood said, the mine had been right-sized and restructured, operating now with a workforce of 3 389 compared with 5 468 previously.

ERPM had raised debt finance of US$12 million from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and had begun a capital upgrade programme entailing an investment of US$20 million. Some US$7 million to be spent in the current quarter included the reclamation of the Cason Dump, which management estimated would generate an additional 40 000 ounces of gold per year.


Queries:

Ilja Graulich, Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited
+27 11 381 7800 (office)
+27 83 604 0820 (mobile)

James Duncan, Russell & Associates
+27 11 880 3924 (office)
+27 82 892 8052 (mobile)

Janice Dempsey, Russell & Associates
+27 11 880 3924 (office)
+27 82 376 2327(mobile)
Dez-Quartal Durban:

Für einen der großen Hoffnungsträger
ist das zuwenig:

Vorher fast kein Gewinn; jetzt 50% mehr

drei mal null ist null bleibt null,
(Refrain eines Karnevalslieds)


Gruss
Tsuba
Durban Deep heute in NY unter 3,40 USD zu bekommen...
Ich bin daher wieder nach längerer Abstinenz in diesen Wert eingestiegen. Angeischts des jetzigen Goldpreises ist er einfach viel zu billig!

Oder um einen Chart aus Durbans neuester investor presentation anläßlich der BMO Konferenz in Tampa, Florida zu zitieren:

Gold 600 USD/oz - because it`s a rotten world

Da stimme ich zu!

Gruß

Sovereign
Hallo SOV,
Wenn ich nicht schon hätte würd ich auch noch. Hab einfach keine Lust mehr umzuschichten. Endweder geht der Kuchen bald auf oder ich kuck das Ganze nur noch mit nem a an:rolleyes:

Den Shortis Baschern und PowerPoint Heinis alles Schlechte.

Basic
Hey Basic,

für Durban Deep mußten ein paar Cambiors (waren vorher Randgolds) heute dran glauben.
Daneben hab ich auch noch bei Golden Star Resources aufgestockt.

Gruß

Sovereign

P.S.: Bitte mässige Deinen Zorn auf die "Powerpoint-Heinis"...bin selber einer...Powerpoint-Präsentationen mit Animationen und dazu ne Fernbedienung mit integriertem Laserpointer in der einen und ne Tasse Kaffee in der anderen Hand....damit friste ich eine Menge meiner Zeit ;)
Ist doch lustig! Bischen schaumschlagen und rumposen, das ist besser als hart zu arbeiten, glaub es mir! ;)
Ich habs doch geahnt, dass Du dazu gehörst:)
Ne ich mein ja auch mehr die Bilanzierer mit ihren Satistiken und den zugehörigen PR Shows.
(ZB Telekom 3. Emission. Ja 64 EUR kann man damit machen!)

Sag mir mal lieber wies weitergeht. Von meinen 1000% im Mai sind nur noch knapp 400 nachgebliebn. Irgendwie fehlt da die Korrelation zwischen Gold und Aktien. Tja schwerer Fehler. was soll man machen.

Gruß Basic
@Sovereign
#71

Durban Deep heute in NY unter 3,40 USD bekommen ???

Am Donnerstag 08.März03 senkt die EZB die Zinsen
da dürfte der Euro an Wert verlieren durch die
Zinssenkung
dann geht der Euro auf
1 Euro = 1,070 US-Dollar

dass dürfte den Goldpreis weiter nach unten drücken
#73

DROOY zu 3,37 und GSS zu 1,52 wenn Du`s genau wissen willst! ;)

Und was die EZB angeht: Der dumme Duisenberg kann meinetwegen machen was er will. Soll er doch zusammen mit seinem Vasallen Welteke Goldverkäufe ankündigen oder Negativzinsen einführen...

Fakt ist: Der Dollar ist Schrott, der EURO ist Schrott, die Immobilien überbewertet und die Aktienmärkte hoffnungslos...also was bleibt da außer Gold???

Nichts! Eben deshalb kaufe ich Durban...

Gruß

Sovereign
@Sovereign
#74

Vielen Dank für Deine Infos
denn in den nächsten Tagen oder Wochen
will auch ich kaufen.

already the finger at the buy-trigger
An sovereign

hier eine Info aus dem neuen G&M,Märzausgabe über DROOY

Hinter dem Gewinnsprung von 54% im 4.Quartal 2002, verbvergen sich außerordentliche Posten.
DROOY bilanziert neuerdings nach´US GAAP, Wenn man sich das
operative Ergebnis heauer unter die Lupe nimmt,stellt man fest,daß DROOY im 4.Quartal 2002 netto kaum noch etwas verdient hat. Schuld daran war natürlich auch der feste Randkurs und selbstverständlich die Tatsache,daß die Minen von DROOY doch schon sehr alt sind und sehr teuer produzieren.
Positiv: die gute Liquidität nach der Ausgabe einer Wandelanleihe.Die Kasse ist nun mit $ 87 Millionen gefüllt.DROOY ist nach wie vor keine Qualitätsaktie, sondern eine Option auf den Goldpreis-, undzar auf einem Goldpreis von über $ 400 oz .Harmony hingen machte $ 48 Millionen Gewinn im 4. Quartal.
DROOY,mache ich nicht mies wie mir das bereits vorgeworfen wurde hier,habe selbst so an die 20.000 Stück im Depot und hoffe nur das dieser Wert nach Norden geht wie ich mir das
etwa vor einem Jahr so vorgestellt habe.
Gruß hpoth
@hpoth

G&M,Märzausgabe

Wo bekomme ich diese Zeitschrift
am Hauptbahnhof-Kiosk
oder könntest Du mal die
Internetadresse reinstellen
Internet Adresse www.bandulet.de,Herr Bandulet gibt einmal
moantlich den Gold & Money - Dienst heraus,ein exelenter
Dienst, habe Ihn von anfang an, ebenso findet 1x wenn es was extrem wichtiges gibt auch zweimal im Jahr ein Seminar
statt mit sehr guten Kennern der Goldzene , am 21.3.2003
findet in Zürich wieder ein Seminar statt, bin dort auch wieder vertreten.
Gruß hpoth
"DROOY ist nach wie vor keine Qualitätsaktie..."

Hab ich auch nie behauptet, aber aufgrund der Volatilität und niedrigen Bewertung bietet sich Durban eben an....für jemanden der die meiste Durchschlagskraft bei einem Goldpreisanstieg bezogen auf jeden investieretn Dollar such! :D Durban Deep...quasi die .44er Magnum unter den Goldaktien...LOL (Harmony ist dagegen höchstens 7,65er Parabellum und Barrick und Placer rangieren unter .22er Kleinkaliber)...:laugh:



(tolles Ratingsystem oder? Ist doch viel amüsanter als dieses dumme "outperform" rating der Banken)

Gruß

Sovereign
@hpoth

... 20.000 DROOY im Depot. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

20.000 DROOY short, so ist es wohl richtiger, deshalb deine dümmliche Basherei.

Ich werde jedenfalls in der nächsten Zeit meine DROOY
weiter aufstocken.
Allersdings in anderen Dimensionen als du. :D
kitepoja
was soll denn dieser Ausfall,ich mache keine dümmliche
Basherei,habe nur einen Info reingestellt sonst nichts,
brauchst nicht neidisch zusein wegen 20.000 Dorry ist ebenmal so die habe ich und bin nicht im Verlust O.K
gruß hpoth:D :D :D :D :D
@ soereign, ist in der Tat ein gutes Raiting,aber wie gesagt diese Info ist nicht auf meinem Mist gewachsen, habe sie nur weitergegeben und das ist doch sicherlich noch nicht verboten oder? gruß hpoth
@ wer hier bash ist doch wohl klar, in anderen Dimensionen,
habe nichts dagegen kannst doch machen was Du willst und ich ebenso.O.K.
:mad: :mad: :mad: hpoth
Soweit ich weiß, ist Mr. "Kittelpole" der neue nick von Goldonly...also immer locker bleiben, gell GO?:laugh:
Bandulet ist doch der größte Spinner unter der Sonne.
Völlig ahnungslos der Mann.
Coeur d`Alene momentan in NY im Sonderangebot... 1,38....Kommt schießt Euch ein paar für diesen Preis. Ich für meinen Teil hab`s jedenfalls gerade getan. ;)

Gruß

Sovereign
Also wer so etwas behauptet liegt doch völlig daneben,sicherlich hatt er au einige Flops gestartet, wer hat die schon nicht auch gehabt.Jedenfalls kenne ich diesen
Mann seid über 20 Jahren und die waren überwiegend positiv.
Im gengensatz zu vielen anderen Schreiberlingen und sogenannten Analysten und alles besser Wisser.Nichts für ungut aber so was lasse ich nicht stehen. Gruß hpoth:mad:
Bandulet kenn ich schon seit 20 Jahren.
Vorhersagequote 50%. :laugh: :laugh:
Also knapp besser als `Manfred`.

@Sov

Komisch ... Im Moment kaufen wir die gleichen Sachen !!
Habe die letzten Tage DROOY zu ca. 3,15 und heute
CDE zu 1,33 gekauft. Und das nicht ganz wenig. :D

F..ck Bush
Nach der Analyse der Zyklen, die ja auch nur ein weiteres Hilfsmittel unter anderen darstellt, im Zusammenhang mit anderen Indikatoren, haben wir die erste Phase der Goldminenhausse, die tatsächlich am 28.Mai 2002 endete- bei einem Höchstand des FTSE- Goldminenindex von 1497,75.
geshen.Jetzt beleibt eingentlich nur eins zuwarten wie sich die weiter Entwicklung darstellt. FTSE-Goldminenindex bei 1163.15 -doch schon eine schöhne Korrektur- wohlgemerkt eine Korrektur keine Trendwende. gruß hpoth
#88

@GO

"Komisch ... Im Moment kaufen wir die gleichen Sachen !!"

Du hast eben auch einen guten Geschmack: Einen Teil meiner Ashanti und Randgold habe ich in Durban Deep und Coeur d`Alene umgetauscht.
Daneben habe ich mir auch noch ein paar Golden Star Resources und Wheaton River zugelegt. Also Good Luck mit Deinen Goldaktien und laß Dich von den Shorties nicht ins Boxhorn jagen.

Und was die USA angeht: Dieser durchgeknallte George Dabbeluh hat es geschafft, daß ich zum Antiamerikaner wurde. War wirklich schwierig, aber dieser Typ hat es geschafft! :(

Gruß

Sovereign
@Sovereign

Dir ist aber klar, daß Durban Gold für ca. USD300/oz produziert?

Das Problem ist der starke Rand (7.9 !!). Aber gerade deswegen kauft man ja. Wie stark soll der Rand denn noch werden?

Eine meiner Hauptpositionen ist jetzt auch rausgeflogen (stop loss), nachdem Iamgold die 7 nach unten durchbrochen hat. Als Ausgleich habe ich mir Newmont geholt (30% des freien Kapitals zu 25.99) und hole mir Montag morgen einige Gold Fields zu anvisierten 88/89 (kann auch gut 86 werden).

Die Frage ist, wie es langfristig weitergeht. M.E. wird der Rand längerfristig wohl so bis 6.50 steigen. 50% der Kosten in SA sind ja Arbeitskosten... Das ganze wird aber dann interessant, wenn der Ölpreis gewaltig steigt. Alle open-pit miner müssen dann noch stärkere Kostensteigerungen hinnehmen als durch den Rand in Südafrika. Der Goldpreis ist dann ohnehin einige hundert US$ höher. Südafrika könnte dann die größten Gewinnmargen von allen Minen haben.

Man muß sich auch darüber im klaren sein, daß der erste Goldminen-Bullmarkt zuende ist. Definitiv! Man sollte in zukunft Aktien wie Barrick weiterhin meiden (immer noch teurer als Newmont!! Trotz der Hedges. Ohne Berücksichtigung der Hedges 10% zu teuer, mit wohl 30%, 1 Mrd. zusätzlicher Verlust). Aber auch die "hedge-freien" Minen würde ich nicht mehr kaufen, die sind auch so etwas wie toxic-waste geworden weil einfach zu teuer. Royal, Goldcorp, Agnico, Glamis, alles Schrott. ohne Iamgold stünde Repadre heute bei ca. 17 CAD, mit der Übernahme heute umgerechnet nur ca. 10.50. Alle ehemaligen "Darlings" darf man getrost vergessen.

Ich würde jetzt einen Blick auf die AIM-Firmen richten. Meine Avocet (ich gestehe, meine größte Depot Pos. mit 0.x% Anteil an der Gesamtfirma...) stehen bei 35 pence. Im Juni 2002 waren es ca. 20. Mein Einstandskurs ist 15.x pence. Und mit immer noch USD300/oz Produktion sehr sehr billig.

Gruß
S.
@Saccard

"Dir ist aber klar, daß Durban Gold für ca. USD300/oz produziert?"

Mag schon sein, aber gerade der Nimbus des Hochkostenproduzenten der Durban anhängt, macht die Aktie wegen der hohen Volatilität zur ersten Wahl bei einem Goldpreisanstieg.
Ich bin generell in SA unterinvestiert (bis auf Thistle Mining und ein paar kleineren Positionen), da die dortigen Bewertungen mittlerweile gewaltig nach unten korrigiert haben, bietet sich Durban eben an.
Randgold, die ich vor einiger Zeit als Ersatz für meine Durban gekauft habe, haben sich mehr als verdoppelt, Durban ist dagegen gefallen. Zeit also den Tausch rückgängig zu machen. ;)

Was den Rand angeht: SA wird mE immer eine Weichwährung haben (selbst gegen den USD). Insofern sehe ich den Rand auf Sicht eines Jahres bei 9,5 bis 10 für einen USD. Also dürfte dies der Profitabilität von DRROY nicht abträglich sein.
Vielleicht übernimmt DROOY ja Emperor vollständig. Wäre mE auch nicht zu verachten.

Gruß

Sovereign
Kurds left with nowhere to go

As war looms, thousands are on the move — again
Family members of Raghman Rihan, right, sit among some of their belongings as they leave their home in the Kurdish town of Chamchamal on Tuesday, fearing the impact of a new war against Saddam Hussein.


By Preston Mendenhall
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/news/887022.asp?0cv=CB10&cp1=1
>Top fund managers back gold

By: Stewart Bailey


Posted: 2003/03/18 Tue 20:00 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


JOHANNESBURG -
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…
Posted on Tue, Mar. 18, 2003

Nuclear inspectors reportedly angry
CHECKING FALSE U.S. LEADS WASTED TIME, SOURCE SAYS
By Dan Stober
Mercury News


http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/5418901.htm
March 18, 2003: 1:15 PM EST
By Jake Ulick, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A week after hitting their lowest level in more than 44 years, Treasury bond yields jumped Monday in what may be the clearest sign yet that the bond market`s stunning three-year rally may finally be over.

The rally`s end, if it has come, could spell disappointment for investors who poured billions into bonds and bond funds over the last three years, during the stock market`s worst slide since 1941.

Just as people lost money chasing overpriced stocks three years ago, they could for the first time since 1999 lose money in a bond market prized for its perceived safety.
Why is the Gold price going up AND DOWN – vigorously - and what makes it do so?

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold-Authentic Money - Authenticmoney.com
http://news.goldseek.com/AuthenticMoney/1048002461.php
This is
LONDON
18/03/03 - Business section

Plunge protection and rallying shares
Anthony Hilton, Evening Standard

http://www.thisislondon.com/til/jsp/modules/Article/print.js…
Why Gold and Silver
According to this fact, can we say the smart money has taken a position. 3 phases to the bull market in gold. 1. Smart Money (yours, mine, few banks/mutual funds) 2. Majority of Banks/Mutual Funds 3. John Q. Public (always gets burned in the end). This low market cap makes for gold as a good undervalued investment.

Market Cap for Gold and Silver: $70.6B

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/_basicm-gldslv.html

Sinclair made good calculations as to where gold is going over the long term. In the short term, guesses are just that! We can buy and hold gold mining shares, return in just under two years and find our mining shares quadrupled in price as in the 70s. The key to our investment is the inflation of the monetary supply….the more money Greenspan decides to jam into the system, the better for us. Money is seeking out the safe bet: bonds. As the fire hose shifted from stocks to bonds. Where to next? Gold and silver.

No gloom and doom just the facts. Worldwide banking industry is about to tank due to $100 trillion in derivatives. Takes awhile to sink into the consciousness as to the inestimable amount of money that will cause the bank failure. What will happen to our money sitting in the bank? Who knows…better to sleep on it.
BusinessWeek Online
Don`t Bank on a Bounce-Back
Tuesday March 18, 8:41 am ET
By James C. Cooper and Kathleen Madigan in New York with bureau reports

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/030318/b3825811_1.html
POLL ANALYSES
March 19, 2003


Americans Cite Weapons, Liberating Iraqis as Good Reasons for War
Loss of American soldiers, innocent Iraqi life, highest rated reasons to oppose war


by Jeffrey M. Jones
http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030319.asp
Reuters
Wednesday, March 19, 2003; 9:57 PM

By Thomas Ferraro

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The oldest voice in the U.S. Congress rose on Wednesday to offer a final pre-war warning that President Bush`s march to battle is dangerously misguided.

"Today I weep for my country," said West Virginia Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd. "No more is the image of America one of strong, yet benevolent peacekeeper. ... Around the globe, our friends mistrust us, our word is disputed, our intentions are questioned.

"We flaunt our superpower status with arrogance," Byrd said, adding: "After war has ended the United States will have to rebuild much more than the country of Iraq. We will have to rebuild America`s image around the globe."

Byrd, a leading foe on Capitol Hill of war with Iraq, spoke in a nearly empty Senate chamber about four hours before Bush`s 8 p.m. EST deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave Iraq or face a U.S.-led invasion.

"May God continue to bless the United States of America in the troubled days ahead, and may we somehow recapture the vision which for the present eludes us," Byrd said.

As the white-haired senator concluded his remarks, a number of people in the visitor`s gallery rose and applauded before they were admonished to be quiet.

At 85, Byrd is now the oldest member of Congress as well as the longest serving. He was first elected to the Senate in 1958, after six years in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Byrd was among those who voted last year against the congressional resolution that authorized Bush to use force in his showdown with Saddam, and the senator has given frequent floor speeches since then warning against war.

Polls on Wednesday showed strong American support for a war but widespread opposition to it overseas.

"The case this administration tries to make to justify its fixation with war is tainted by charges of falsified documents and circumstantial evidence," Byrd said.

Despite administration suggestions to the contrary, Byrd said, "There is no credible information to connect Saddam Hussein to 9/11."

The senator said, "We cannot convince the world of the necessity of this war for one simple reason. This is a war of choice."

Byrd said that instead of negotiating, Washington demanded obedience or threatened recrimination. "Instead of isolating Saddam Hussein, we seem to have isolated ourselves."

He said many questions about the looming war were unanswered -- including how long it would last, what it would cost, what its ultimate mission was.

"A pall has fallen over the Senate chamber," Byrd said. "We avoid our solemn duty to debate the one topic on the minds of all Americans, even while scores of thousands of our sons and daughters faithfully do their duty in Iraq."
Short Covering in Gold & Silver Shares

In other news select gold and silver shares continue to bounce back after short positions have been put on the sector. Short positions have been rising throughout all of last year and this year. Normally we would have the current month’s short positions to report to you at this time. They are normally released between the 13-15th of each month. This month they have been delayed. However, watching the action of gold and silver stocks, it appears that there is a lot of short covering that is occurring judging by money flows. As the charts of SSRI, PAAS and SIL indicate, large money went out of these stocks beginning in December, reflected in the red line. Now that money is coming back in. It can be assumed that some degree of short covering is taking place since short positions increased remarkably in Q4 and Q1 of this year. We observe the same pattern in gold shares. It is assumed that short covering is also taking place in gold shares. Not shown in the charts is individual money. Money flow patterns indicate that as precious metals stocks were going up from November to February, individual investors were attracted to the sector. While they were buying, the big boys [institutional traders] were shorting. Now those positions have reversed. The little guy is selling; while the big boys are buying back in.

(Financial Sense)
George W. Bush
1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Washington, DC

Dear Governor Bush:

So today is what you call "the moment of truth," the day that "France and the
rest of world have to show their cards on the table." I`m glad to hear that
this day has finally arrived. Because, I gotta tell ya, having survived 440
days of your lying and conniving, I wasn`t sure if I could take much more. So
I`m glad to hear that today is Truth Day, `cause I got a few truths I would
like to share with you:

1. There is virtually NO ONE in America (talk radio nutters and Fox News aside)
who is gung-ho to go to war. Trust me on this one. Walk out of the White House
and on to any street in America and try to find five people who are PASSIONATE
about wanting to kill Iraqis. YOU WON`T FIND THEM! Why? `Cause NO Iraqis have
ever come here and killed any of us! No Iraqi has even threatened to do that.
You see, this is how we average Americans think: If a certain so-and-so is not
perceived as a threat to our lives, then, believe it or not, we don`t want to
kill him! Funny how that works!

2. The majority of Americans -- the ones who never elected you -- are not
fooled by your weapons of mass distraction. We know what the real issues are
that affect our daily lives -- and none of them begin with I or end in Q.
Here`s what threatens us: two and a half million jobs lost since you took
office, the stock market having become a cruel joke, no one knowing if their
retirement funds are going to be there, gas now costs almost two dollars -- the
list goes on and on. Bombing Iraq will not make any of this go away. Only you
need to go away for things to improve.

3. As Bill Maher said last week, how bad do you have to suck to lose a
popularity contest with Saddam Hussein? The whole world is against you, Mr.
Bush. Count your fellow Americans among them.

4. The Pope has said this war is wrong, that it is a SIN. The Pope! But even
worse, the Dixie Chicks have now come out against you! How bad does it have to
get before you realize that you are an army of one on this war? Of course, this
is a war you personally won`t have to fight. Just like when you went AWOL while
the poor were shipped to Vietnam in your place.

5. Of the 535 members of Congress, only ONE (Sen. Johnson of South Dakota) has
an enlisted son or daughter in the armed forces! If you really want to stand up
for America, please send your twin daughters over to Kuwait right now and let
them don their chemical warfare suits. And let`s see every member of Congress
with a child of military age also sacrifice their kids for this war effort.
What`s that you say? You don`t THINK so? Well, hey, guess what -- we don`t
think so either!

6. Finally, we love France. Yes, they have pulled some royal screw-ups. Yes,
some of them can pretty damn annoying. But have you forgotten we wouldn`t even
have this country known as America if it weren`t for the French? That it was
their help in the Revolutionary War that won it for us? That our greatest
thinkers and founding fathers -- Thomas Jefferson, Ben Franklin, etc. -- spent
many years in Paris where they refined the concepts that lead to our
Declaration of Independence and our Constitution? That it was France who gave
us our Statue of Liberty, a Frenchman who built the Chevrolet, and a pair of
French brothers who invented the movies? And now they are doing what only a
good friend can do -- tell you the truth about yourself, straight, no b.s. Quit
pissing on the French and thank them for getting it right for once. You know,
you really should have traveled more (like once) before you took over. Your
ignorance of the world has not only made you look stupid, it has painted you
into a corner you can`t get out of.

Well, cheer up -- there IS good news. If you do go through with this war, more
than likely it will be over soon because I`m guessing there aren`t a lot of
Iraqis willing to lay down their lives to protect Saddam Hussein. After you
"win" the war, you will enjoy a huge bump in the popularity polls as everyone
loves a winner -- and who doesn`t like to see a good ass-whoopin` every now and
then (especially when it `s some third world ass!). So try your best to ride
this victory all the way to next year`s election. Of course, that`s still a
long ways away, so we`ll all get to have a good hardy-har-har while we watch
the economy sink even further down the toilet!

But, hey, who knows -- maybe you`ll find Osama a few days before the election!
See, start thinking like THAT! Keep hope alive! Kill Iraqis -- they got our
oil!!

Yours, Michael Moore
Many veterans who fought in World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and the Persian Gulf War are furious that the Bush administration is hell bent on destroying the hard work of peacemaking in its bullheaded stumbling to war in Iraq. About to take their message to the streets of Washington, read what they are saying.
By Jan Barry

http://www.vaiw.org/vet/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&fil…
World`s view of America worsens
Christopher Marquis and Marjorie Connelly/NYT The New York Times Wednesday, March 19, 2003
http://www.iht.com/articles/90251.html
Middle East

THE ROVING EYE
This war is brought to you by ...
By Pepe Escobar

ALEXANDRIA, Egypt -
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EC20Ak07.html
The global economic outlook is becoming gloomier even as uncertainty over if there will be a war has changed to when. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/2858703.stm
Reuters
War jitters force Indian gold importers to go slow
Wednesday March 19, 4:39 am ET


BOMBAY, March 19 (Reuters) -http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030319/minerals_india_gold_1.html
http://www.bis.org/index.htm

Nout H E M Wellink, Amsterdam (Chairman of the Board of Directors, President of the Bank)who is also chairman of the Dutch CB said tonight that the war in Iraq would cost about $ 700 billion. The following economic recession of 1% of the world economy would cost an other $ 300 billion.

I have to change my idea therefore that the BIS is behind this.

Apparently it is just a Texan nut-case with the brains of a one cell creature who wants to fight this war thing.

The USA have allowed the Dutch to do part of the nation building after the war but the Dutch have not forgotten that the USA has refused air-support in Sebrenica in order to get rid of 6000 Muslim men. So I think there will be some resistance in Parliament to pay for what the USA is about to fuck up.

I guess the FED will have a hard time to foot the bill of ONE TRILLION DOLLARS. That is if the Dollar keeps its current level.

Board of Directors

Nout H E M Wellink, Amsterdam (Chairman of the Board of Directors, President of the Bank)

Lord Kingsdown, London (Vice-Chairman)

Vincenzo Desario, Rome; David Dodge, Ottawa; Antonio Fazio, Rome; Sir Edward A J George, London; Alan Greenspan, Washington; Hervé Hannoun, Paris; Masaru Hayami, Tokyo; Lars Heikensten, Stockholm; William J McDonough, New York; Guy Quaden, Brussels; Jean-Pierre Roth, Zürich; Hans Tietmeyer, Frankfurt am Main; Jean-Claude Trichet, Paris; Alfons Vicomte Verplaetse, Brussels; Ernst Welteke, Frankfurt am Main

As you see AGPOS is under Dutch (Royals) supervision
US and Japan to protect markets


The Nikkei hits a new 20-year low
Just days ahead of a war, the US and Japan are prepared to co-operate to support the financial markets if there is a crisis. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2863051.stm
Location: Sunday 16 Mar 2003 > Markets

Falling gold shares `like faithless women` - go carefully

Analysis

By Dirk Kotzé

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2003/03/16/business/markets/mar…
Deflation Myth
by Richard Salsman, CFA (March 22, 2003)

Summary: Not only is deflation non-existent, but if it did exist it would be bullish for the economy and the stock markets. The bearish results seen in world stock markets since early 2000 have been due, in part, to an acceleration in inflation -- not to deflation.

[CAPITALISM MAGAZINE.COM]

http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=2555
This May be the Low

By James Turk
For The Gold Report
Mar 19 2003

www.theaureport.com
www.fgmr.com


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/mar192003.html
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/GoldDow.htm

Und das Dow / Gold Ratio muß erst mal auf mindestens 5 gekürzt werden, Russell sagt sogar, das dieses auf 1 gekürzt werden muß.
Hard Landing... a geopolitical and financial reality check
Craig Harris
President:
Harris Capital Management, Inc. CTA
March 22, 2003

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris032203.html
The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: As war with Iraq fills the headlines, America`s public companies are getting ready to show investors what they`ve been up to all year. But as Eric Fry points out, it`s unlikely to be pleasant: "Many corporate pension plans are racking up titanic liabilities," making "even the varnished truth ...unsightly to investors..."


10-K SEASON

Eric J. Fry
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/fry032403.html
>`Weapon of mass distraction` good for gold – Cockerill

By: Peter Gonnella


Posted: 2003/03/20 Thu 19:33 ZE8 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


PERTH –
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24825…
>Placer eyeing further acquisitions

By: Peter Gonnella


Posted: 2002/12/03 Tue 17:00 ZE8 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


PERTH –
http://www.mips1.net/422567CB004DBB8F/$All/4225685F0043D1B24…
Gary Hart: Code Red is coming
03/20/03
By William Jackson,
GCN Staff
The war with Iraq has increased the risk of a terrorist attack on America, said former Sen. Gary Hart, who now is co-chairman of the Commission on National Security for the 21st Century.

“Don’t be surprised if in the coming hours or days we go to Code Red,” Hart said this morning in Washington. “It is almost inevitable.”

Hart was part of a panel of experts gathered by George Washington University and webMethods Inc. of Fairfax, Va., to discuss the role of technology in national security.

The commission predicted in 1999 that America would suffer a major terrorist attack, and Hart was predicting such an attack as late as early September 2001. He said the present administration wasted valuable time in setting up a homeland security agency, which the commission recommended in January 2001.

The Sept. 11 attacks “were not Pearl Harbor,” he said. “America was warned.” Despite the attention to terrorism since then, “the country is not today prepared for retaliatory terrorist attacks.”

The panelists included former Clinton administration national security adviser Sandy Berger; former CIA director James Woolsey; Mark Forman, the Office of Management and Budget’s associate director for IT and e-government; and former Virginia Gov. James Gilmore, now chairman of the National Advisory Commission on Terrorism. All agreed that for technology to be effective in national security there must be integration between federal agencies, and between federal, state and local governments.

But several panelists warned of such integration becoming a threat to privacy and civil liberties. There is an inevitable conflict between liberty and security, Woolsey said, and in time of war, liberty generally loses. He added that although use of tools such as the data mining applications to be developed in the Total Information Awareness program will have to be closely watched, “We have to find ways to make use of generally available information.”

Gilmore said there has not been enough public debate about the costs of improved security.

“We have an obligation to think about the uses of technology and to think about what applications we want and what applications we don’t want,” he said.
washingtonpost.com
Al Qaeda Near Biological, Chemical Arms Production

By Barton Gellman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 23, 2003; Page A01

Al Qaeda leaders, long known to covet biological and chemical weapons, have reached at least the threshold of production and may already have manufactured some of them, according to a newly obtained cache of documentary evidence and interrogations recently conducted by the U.S. government.

Three people with access to written reports said the emerging picture depicts the al Qaeda biochemical weapons program as considerably more advanced than U.S. analysts knew. The picture continues to sharpen daily, one official said, because translation and analysis of the documents continues, and because the operative captured with them began divulging meaningful information about production plans only this week. Authorized government spokesmen declined to discuss the subject, saying it is classified.

Leaders at the top of al Qaeda`s hierarchy, the evidence shows, completed plans and obtained the materials required to manufacture two biological toxins -- botulinum and salmonella -- and the chemical poison cyanide. They are also close to a feasible production plan for anthrax, a far more lethal weapon, which kills 90 percent of untreated victims if spread by inhalation and as many as 75 percent of those treated when the first symptoms become evident. Among the documents seized was a direction to purchase bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes anthrax disease.

Most of the new information comes from handwritten documents and computer hard drives seized during the March 1 capture of Khalid Sheik Mohammed, regarded by some government analysts as al Qaeda`s most important operational planner. Known inside al Qaeda as "the Brain," Mohammed has acknowledged being the principal author of the Sept. 11, 2001, plot. Significantly, one official noted, Mohammed was arrested at a Rawalpindi, Pakistan, home owned by Abdul Quddoos Khan, a bacteriologist with access to production materials and facilities who has since disappeared.

Because of Mohammed`s central role in operations, one senior official said, his apparent connection to biochemical weapons is a "very scary" sign that al Qaeda`s efforts reach well beyond the hypothetical. At first analysts were unsure of Mohammed`s direct involvement because the documents were not written in his hand and were seized in a house that does not belong to him. But digitally scanned images of the same documents have been extracted from one of Mohammed`s computer hard drives. Confronted with that evidence, a second U.S. expert said, Mohammed has begun to talk about the production program in the past two or three days.
this is what resistance looks like and they can fight for a long time.
Posted on Sunday, March 23 @ 00:07:34 EST By Pak Taliban "up to 30 US troops were killed or captured" "10-15 tanks destroyed or disabled and up to 30 other armored vehicles"
March 22, 2003 The IRAQWAR.RU analytical center was created recently by a group of journalists and military experts from Russia to provide accurate and up-to-date news and analysis of the war against Iraq. The following is the English translation of the IRAQWAR.RU report based on the Russian military intelligence reports.
March 22, 2002, 1300hrs MSK (GMT +3), Moscow - Additional information about the situation in the primary combat areas in southern Iraq became available by 1300hrs (Moscow time, GMT +3). The US command reports about the supposed surrender of the entire Iraqi 51st Infantry Division turned out to be a complete fabrication. According to our sources the 51st Division continues to fight on the approaches to Basra and we can only talk about individual cases of Iraqi soldiers being captured in combat.
Elements of the US 3rd Infantry Division and the 1st Marine Infantry Division ended up in an exceptionally difficult situation. While attempting to encircle Basra from the north and to block An-Nasiriya elements the 3rd and 1st infantry divisions found themselves wedged between the defending Iraqi forces. The Iraqi command used this situation and delivered a decisive counterattack with up to 80 tanks in the open flank of the US forces, slicing through their combat orders. As the result of this counterattack these US units are now at risk of being separated from the main coalition forces and being surrounded.
By 1100hrs MSK Iraqi units advanced into the US attack front by 10-15 kilometers and Gen. Tommy Franks, the commander of the coalition forces, ordered his troops to switch entirely to defensive operations. At the same time he issued orders to the forward-deployed coalition tank units to halt their reconnaissance operations in the directions of Es-Samaba and An-Najaf and to move immediately to support the defending US forces. However, the situation is complicated by the fact that a part of the coalition tanks are currently disabled due to the lack of fuel and are awaiting the arrival of fuel convoys. Thus the tanks are able to gradually rejoin combat in small numbers as the fuel becomes available.
Hard Landing... a geopolitical and financial reality check
Craig Harris
President:
Harris Capital Management, Inc. CTA
March 22, 2003

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/harris/harris032203.html
Dow Jones Business News
Major Gold Producers Expect Price Rebound Despite Iraq
Thursday March 20, 4:27 am ET


PERTH -(Dow Jones)-http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030320/0427000529_1.html
Greens Taking on Gold Miners




Core driller Paul Elloway collects samples Wednesday to identify the boundaries of Echo Bay Mines` new Emanuel Creek ore body near Republic, Wash. Elloway works for Kettle Drilling of Rathdrum, Idaho. He and helper Tyler Exner, not shown, were drilling cores that may extend as far as a half-mile in several directions while other workers tunneled toward the new ore body. Gold prices are up, but environmentalists are concerned about the use of cyanide in gold mining. (John Craig/The Associated Press)
BY CATHERINE TSAI
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

DENVER --
http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Mar/03222003/business/40495.asp
Taylor On US Markets & Gold

Financial Markets

A Big, Powerful Bear Market Rally. Is it for Suckers?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/taylor032503.html