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Der langfristige Chart zeigt mir, das eine Trendlinie auf die Top`s gezeichnet werden kann, die anzeigt, das HGMCY über $17 steigen und dort drüber bleiben wird das ganze Jahr über. Ich sage, das dieses eine denkbare Möglichkeit ist. Aber dieses führt mich dazu zu glauben, das der Jahresschlußkurs 2002 für HGMCY bei ungefähr $17 ist.

peter.wedemeier1
Überverkauft Sprung. HGMCY scheint eine bessere Wette nach oben zu sein, gerade wenn der breite Markt (Dow Jones, Nasdaq) die nächste Schlappe einstecken muß und scharf nach unten dreht.
Dann sollte sich HGMCY sehr gut behaupten können.

peter.wedemeier1
Gold wird zur Himmelsrakete werden!
JP Morgan Chase wird dann Bankrott sein (mit Ihren Shorting beim Gold)! Die FED wird dann das Derivate Problem lösen, indem sie mehr $$$ liefern wird anstatt Gold. JP Morgan Chase wird wohl dann in einer anderen bank aufgehen. JPM (shortet sie massiv! und kauft Gold Futures!) dachten sie wären richtig dabei, indem sie das Gold massiv geshortet haben. Aber die vorherrschende Meinung meint das Gegenteil. Die FED wird plötzlich und bald Ihren Kurs ändern und ändern müssen. -> Dann wird das Gold zur Himmelsrakete werden!!! Und wenn Citigroup nicht aufpasst, wird es Ihnen genauso ergehen wie JP Morgan Chase.

peter.wedemeier1
Ich wünsche mir einen baldigen Banken-Bankrott für diese massiven Gold Shorter namentlich JP Morgan Chase und Citigroup und eine baldige Umkehr der FED zur Rationalität!

Shortet JPM und C!!! Kauft physisches Metall und Gold Future!!!

peter.wedemeier1
@ hallo Peter!
Bei Kursen um 300$ (und vermutlich heute noch darunter) ist
natürlich heulen und zähneklappern angesagt.
Die Manipulation der beiden großen Banken ist und bleibt eine Riesensauerei, aber schließlich hat die Geschichte
eindrucksvoll gezeigt, das sich der Ring niemals (!!!!)
schließen wird !
Daher keep cool und kassiere wie ich zum Beispiel eine
wunderschöne Dividendenerhöhung bei GFI und warte ab.
Die Manipulation wird unsere beiden Banken das Genick brechen, und sie wissen es.
Noch versucht man dagegenzusteuern, aber Arschkarte, das
klappt nur kurzfristig.
Der Move ist zu groß beim Gold, mittlerweile ist es hoffnungslos überverkauft.
Ich warte mal das nächste Jahr schön ab und bei Kursschwäche
werde ich satt hinzukaufen.
In diesem Sinne
allen Goldfreunden einen schönen Tag
Shark
Ungehedgt! Diese südafrikanische Mine ist ein sehr gutes langfristiges Investment, welche dir einen großen Return bringen wird aufgrund von ihrem hohen Potenzial.

peter.wedemeier1
Gebt Ihr einen weiteren Versuch. Das Gold hat seinen Aufwärtstrend wieder aufgenommen.

peter.wedemeier1
@peter
Mit der Manipulation meinte ich den Goldmarkt allgemein,
nicht GFI !! Deswegen habe ich sie doch massiv gekauft, weil
sie eben nicht gehedgt ist.
Ansonsten bin ich absolut Deiner Meinung:
die Fed wird demnächst reagieren müssen, und das wird so
manchem die Augen öffnen über die wahre momentane Lage
der Wirtschaft.
Schön ist nur eins zu beobachten:
a) relativ wenig Diskussionsteilnehmer zum Goldboard all-
gemein
b) die Wenigen sind noch unterschiedlicher Meinung
c) historisch gesehen sind wir ,,am Ende vom Arsch"
(damaliger Höchstkurs vom Gold)

Fazit:
Wir stehen erst am Anfang einer fulminanten Wiederentdeckung des Goldes, somit auch unserer Minenlieblinge.
Dabei habe ich einen Anlagehorizont von mindestens fünf
Jahren im Auge.
Bei Goldfields rechne ich persönlich mindestens mit einem
Tenbagger (politische Gefahren einmal ausgeschlossen),aber
das ist natürlich nur meine Meinung.
So keep cool, wir alle werden uns ungläubig die AUgen reiben, denn wir glauben alle an ein Wunder, und wer nicht
an Wunder glaubt, ist kein Realist an der Börse (Zitat von
Kosto)
Shark
Am Montag erwarte ich gute Gewinne von HGMCY.
Von einem technischen Standpunkt aus gesehen, der MACD, OBV und RSI sind alle in sehr guter Position für eine Bewegung nach oben am Montag.
DER C.O.T. Report ist extrem bullish für das Gold und Silber! Long große Spekulanten und kleine Spekulanten verlauften ihre Positionen an die Großen. Und: die großen Verkäufer und Kommerziellen deckten Ihre Shorts ein. -> Große Abnahme bei dem Open Interest und das ist nicht gerade aktuell! Ich erwarte in Kooperation von einem fallenden Dollar und einem fallenden breiten Markt (Dow Jones, DAX, Nasdaq, Nemax) in der nächsten Woche eine explosive Bewegung bei HGMCY nach oben. In Kombination mit einem hoffentlich extrem positiven 05.08. Gewinnbericht und HGMCY könnte sehen $15-17 in der nächsten Woche. Das einzigste Problem, das wir Longs haben, das es nicht genügend Aktien in der Short Interest Kolumne gibt. Nur 1 Tag um das Volumen zu decken, so wenn die Shorts in einem temporären Short Squeeze:) gefangen sind, gibt es dort draußen genügend Schwachköpfe, die gewillt sind zu verkaufen. Wenn ich nur jedermann überzeugen könnte, das HGMCY auf $23,50 als erstes geht, mit einem möglichen Retrace auf $19,- um anschließend in Richtung $90 zu steigen. Mein Hinweis: verkaufe irgendwo, wo du dich komfortabel fühlst über $50,- und investiere dann dein Geld in Goldcorp oder Newmont, wo du das Risiko der Verstaatlichung nicht gegenwärtig hast, wie es bei den Südafrikanern ist. Wie auch immer, über dieses Spiel reden Sie schon jahrelang und es ist nichts passiert. Denn Sie wollen das investierte Kapital von Übersee. Somit sehe ich keine aktuelle bedrohung, bis das Gold über einen längeren Zeitraum hinweg über $500-600 gehandelt wird.

peter.wedemeier1
Go for the gold!
Source: African Business
Publication date: 2002-07-01
Arrival time: 2002-08-03

MINING NOTEBOOK
In these unsure times, everybody wants a bit of certainty - and that means good, old fashioned gold. But for how long will the high prices hold? Is it time to invest in the yellow metal or pull out?

Rafiq Ahmed has the answers.

In times of international uncertainties, investors turn to more tangible assets, such as real estate and precious metals. Gold possesses the distinctive characteristics of money: it serves as a medium of exchange, a store of wealth (long-- term savings) and a unit of value. Besides gold holdings, investors are lately showing preference for gold bars, gold coins, paper (metal certificates) and specialist funds (which invest exclusively in gold mining company shares), monitored by the FTSE Gold Mines Index.

This index, which tracks gold equity markets in the Americas, Africa and Australasia, boasts market capitalisation of $50.63bn and has generated a 62% return in the year to June 2002. The gold price surged through the key resistance level of $320 a troy ounce (oz) in late May and touched $330/oz in Hong Kong in June before slipping back because of light profit-taking by investment funds.

There have been seven short-lived rallies since February 1996 when gold hit $420oz. However, most analysts believe the market`s upside potentials now have solid fundamentals. Kelvin Williams, marketing director of AngloGold, the world`s largest gold producer, said: "Unlike other price rallies in recent years, where the gold price has tended to rise on the back of a single issue or incident, the current price improvement has been built on a number of favourable circumstances for gold."

The positive factors underpinning gold`s new-found lustre among institutional and private investors are:

*A marked turnaround in investor sentiment largely because of geopolitical tensions, which if sustained over the coming months, can prove crucial in reviving the industry`s fortunes. Chris Thompson, chief executive of Gold Fields, remarked: "People are feeling far less secure than previously. Gold has always been the investment that people reach for when they feel uncomfortable."

*The substantial reductions in producer-- hedging, i.e. forward- selling on the gold derivative markets. This indicates limited downside risk for gold prices. Lately, there has been a marked change in producers` hedging strategies. Jonathan Best, AngloGold`s financial director explained: "We`ve continued to manage our hedge book aggressively and we are taking out the weaker positions in the hedge book right now so that going forward, we don`t have a long period when we will be receiving lower prices or incurring an opportunity loss." AngloGold has cut its hedging positions by about 105.74t during the past six months.

Heavy hedge-book loses?

According to Gold Fields` findings, hedge-book financial losses to producers could be heavy over the next few years if prices surge to between $330/oz and $345/oz. Macquarie Bank (Australia) estimates that total hedge-book of gold miners world-wide may drop by 400t in 2002.

Therefore, the supply of bullion in the markets will become tighter because of declining producer-hedging and robust investment demand should buoy the price of gold.

*Global mine production is expected to decline this year or next thanks to greater consolidation and rationalisation within the industry during the past two years.

*The gold rally was also helped by the US dollar`s weakness against a number of other major currencies. A softer greenback versus the euro and the yen, in fact, reduces gold prices in many other currencies, thereby making the precious metal more attractive to buyers in Asia-Pacific and Europe. The greenback and gold have a counter-cyclical relationship. If the dollar surges, bullion prices fall and vice versa.

*Lower US money market rates are discouraging speculative short- selling of gold by international hedge funds. In times of rising US interest rates, it`s profitable for hedge funds to borrow gold from the bullion banks, sell it and place the money in high-yielding cash- deposits and major OECD-country Treasury securities.

*The lacklustre performances of stock markets in America and Western Europe have also had an impact on the price of gold. This in turn, reflects doubts about the health of global economic recovery and hence revival in corporate earnings. During the past year, gold investments have outperformed bonds and equities. The World Gold Council writes: "People buy gold when there is a stock market crash or things are unstable because gold tends to hold its value. Cash is eroded by inflation, but gold bullion tends to rise in value. It is usually seen as a hedge against inflation."

Controlled bullion sales

The September 1999 Washington Accord commits 20 of the world`s leading central banks and international financial institutions (the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF together control 85% of the globe`s bullion reserves), to hold gold as a reserve asset and to limit gold sales to 4001 per annum until September 2004.

The signatories have also agreed not to increase their gold- leasing programmes and expand the use of gold futures and options during this period. The central banks are complying with the accord, thus eliminating the market`s fear of an uncontrolled heavy official selling. Gold-producing countries in Africa and South America would of course welcome an extension of the Central Banks` Gold Agreement after 2004.

Central banks world-wide hold more than 33,000t as part of their foreign currency reserves, equivalent to 13 years of current mine production. The five-main official holders of gold reserves are the US Federal Reserves Board (8,148t); Germany`s Bundesbank (3,4560; Banque de France (3,025t); Banca d`Italia (2,45 10 and the Swiss National Bank (2,151t).

Supply-deficit

The demand for gold has continued to surpass the supply of newly- mined gold for many years. According to the latest report, "Gold Survey 2002," compiled by Londonbased Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), world-wide mine production in 2001 totalled 2,604t, against aggregate gold usages in jewellery, fabricated products and investments of 3,483t. The jewellery sector accounts for 75% - 80% of gold offtake, especially in Asia and the Middle East.

Despite sustained falls in gold output, South Africa still remains the world`s largest producer (394t) last year. GFMS report shows that 80% of SA production comes from mines owned by AngloGold, Gold Fields and Harmony. Other major producers are America, Australia, Indonesia - which owns the world`s biggest gold-mine, Grasberg (which produced 108t) - China, Russia and Canada.

Last year`s average spot price was $271/oz while total production costs averaged $228/oz. Future trends

Some prime investment banks like UBS Warburg, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Barclays Capital are anticipating gold to average above $300/oz this year and between $320/oz-$340/oz in 2003. GFMS provides more cautious forecasts of between $285/oz and $315/oz over the next year. The yellow metal`s 10-year moving average is $331 /oz.

But stronger prices of $350/oz-$380/oz, though unlikely in the near-term, would trigger profit-taking and renewed producer-- hedging, thus weighing on the markets. Also, more marginal mines in South Africa and elsewhere will be brought back into production and increasing supplies should ultimately lead to lower prices.

It`s important to note that the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe are very different from the great bull-market of 1980/81, when gold skyrocketed to $800/ oz, following the invasion of Afghanistan by the Former Soviet Union and the start of Iran-Iraq war.
Gestern im Licht der Gewinne von dieser Hoch-Qualitätsaktie, der weltökonomischen Schuldenblase, dem Verfall des breiten Aktienmarktes (Dow Jones, DAX, nasdaq, Nemax), Krieg und Gerüchte von überall auf der ganzen Welt und diese Idioten, die gestern HGMCY verkauft haben, nehmen sich selbst weg on innerem Wohlstand, dieses zeigt, das Ignoranz, so schwachsiinig sie auch sein mag, luxoriös ist und keine Grenzen kennt. Wie alle >Goldbugs wissen, ist es nur eine Frage der Zeit, bevor diese Schwachköpfe, die sich selbst in dem Goldmarkt und den Precious Metalls Aktien eingenistet haben, endgültig begreifen, was ein solides Asste ist. Nur der Zug wird dann bei HGMCY wahrscheinlich schon abgefahren sein. HGMCY ist eine Rakete und wird dieses wahrscheinlich schon sehr bald zeigen. Die Fundamentals und die Technik sind alle an Ort und Stelle um diese Rakete starten zu lassen. Und die Schwachköpfe, die gestern verkauft haben, werden dieses erst erkennen, wenn HGMCY Fahrt aufgenommen hat.

peter.wedemeier1
Harmony springt von der 200-day EMA weg, Alle an Bord! , bei ungefähr $11,20 und die 200-day SMA ist bei $10,40. Vor kurzem schloß HGMCY unter $11,-, ist aber nicht nach unten weg gebrochen. Die Stochastiks zeigen ein leichtes Ansteigen von Ihrem Boden, OBV und A/D zeigen im Moment (!) nicht viel Leben, P&F sieht soweit in Ordnung aus.
Grundsätzlich bewegt sich Gold invers zu Aktien des breiten Marktes und der Aktienbullmarkt ist tot nach ungefähr 23 Jahres. Gestern war es nur eine erneute Sucker Rallye (eine Rallye von und für Schwachköpfe. Hey schau mal, Aktien können doch steigen, (auf Kosten des amerikanischen Steuerzahlers!) bis einer dieses bescheuerte Spiel wieder abpfeift (S&P 560, Dow Jones 4000-5000 Nasdaq Composite unter 1000 und wir haben erst eine normale Bewertung erreicht und wenn die USA husten, bekommt Europa eine Grippe! Dieser tote breite Aktienmarkt wird nicht so bald wieder zum Leben erwachen. (noch erheblich überbewertete Aktien, fehlendes Vertrauen in die Bilanzen der Unternehmen und deren CEO`s, Unternehmensskandale: Enron, WorldCom, etc., der mögliche Zusammenbruch von JP Morgan und Citibank aufgrund Ihrer Derivategschäfte, katastrophale US-Wirtschaftsdaten, allein das tägliche steigende US-Handelsbilanzdfizit, Krieg gegen den Irak, Israel/Palästina, Südamerika, Indien/Pakistan, etc...).
Der Baby Bull Markt beim Gold ist gerade erst ein Jahr alt und steht erst am Anfang in seinen ersten Schritten.

peter.wedemeier1
Precious Metals springen.
Nehmt diese, bevor sich ein starker Aufwärtstrend entwickelt.

peter.wedemeier1
Investiere langfristig in eine sichere Minenaktie wie HGMCY! Die Dividende über die nächsten 6 - 7 Monate wird sehr attraktiv sein. Am 24.08. wird die Dividende ausgezahlt. Wenn du auch diese Dividende haben willst, dann mußt du vor dem 13.08. deine Aktien kaufen! Aus diesem Grund wird HGMCY in der nächsten Woche wieder über der $12,- wahrscheinlich stehen.
Und wenn der Golsdpreis auf gutem Volumen wieder über die $330,- steigt, dann werden alle Gold- und Silberminenaktien steigen.

peter.wedemeier1
Hallo Peter
Lese im Goldboard manchmal mit. Meinst Du mit der tollen Dividente die 15 Cent oder bin ich da nicht auf dem Laufenden.
Vielen Dank für Deine Antwort
otili
425 cents per ordinary share
Assume that there are 100 SA cents in a SA Rand and that the Rand is about 10 to the dollar in late August, you`d get a dividend closer to 42 cents than 6.5.
Gold and the Dollar
A Comparison of Gold Stock Valuations

Ein sehr interessanter Vergleich zwischen Harmony Gold Mining und Goldcorp. Es wird auch noch kurz auf Kinross Gold eingegangen.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville081002.html
(Quelle: Kitco)
I started accumulating gold stocks earlier this week. The bottoming process is being
COMPLETED. I`m a very heavy buyer on all large dips
in GFI, HGMCY, KGC...etc. We are going up
as all the weak hands are now flushed out. Although
I`m very confident I`m still being careful of margin
positions. Let the games begin because I have
plenty of positions now with the buying I did this week.
This was one hell of a correction. Time to move up
with seasonals moving out of our way going into fall.
Our big correction came early and the shares should start
moving up early going into fall. Thats the way I see it.
Good luck out there. Don`t wait to buy when prices are
alot higher. JIMVHO

Looks like HGMCY, GFI will cross $20 on this next run.
Can`t wait !!! IMHO

I agree
Looks like the bottoming is very close to being over according to my charts too. Should be pretty much up moves for the next month or three, starting early next week. :-)
Notice of final dividend
A dividend No. 75 of 425 cents per ordinary share, being the final dividend for the
financial year ended 30 June 2002 has been declared payable on 2 September 2002 to
those shareholders registered as such in the books of the company at the close of
business on 30 August 2002.
The dividend is declared in the currency of the Republic of South Africa. Dividend
cheques will be posted and electronic funds transferred on 2 September 2002.
Any change in address or dividend instruction to apply to this dividend must be received by the company’s transfer secretaries or registrar not later than
23 August 2002.
This announcement will be mailed to all shareholders recorded in the register on or
about 6 August 2002.
Last date to trade ordinary shares cum dividend 23 August 2002
Ordinary shares trade ex dividend 26 August 2002
Record date 30 August 2002
Payment date 2 September 2002

Allow 3 days for your purchase of shares to clear your brokerage. Also, each broker will have their own policy as to when they clear the checks from Harmony. The info posted above is from the Harmony website.
Eröffnete im Plus am Freitag! kurzfristiges Kursziel: $14,-. Am Boden von seiner Trading Range.

peter.wedemeier1
Castle mentions Harmony as one of his favourite picks, a preference premised mainly on the South African number three producer`s packed project pipeline and the resultant organic growth opportunities. He says he has nibbled at the shares since the end of the June quarter, but has not bought significant quantities.
Notice of final dividend

A dividend No. 75 of 425 cents per ordinary share, being the final dividend for the
financial year ended 30 June 2002 has been declared payable on 2 September 2002 to those shareholders registered as such in the books of the company at the close ofbusiness on 30 August 2002.

The dividend is declared in the currency of the Republic of South Africa. Dividend
cheques will be posted and electronic funds transferred on 2 September 2002.

Any change in address or dividend instruction to apply to this dividend must be received by the company’s transfer secretaries or registrar not later than 23 August 2002.
This announcement will be mailed to all shareholders recorded in the register on or about 6 August 2002.

Last date to trade ordinary shares cum dividend 23 August 2002.
Ordinary shares trade ex dividend 26 August 2002
Record date 30 August 2002
Payment date 2 September 2002
Das Kaufsignal auf das Investoren 30 Jahre gewartet haben kam gestern, genauso wie in den frühen 70ern., das Gold/S&P 500 Ratio hat nach oben gedreht. Dieses bedeutet, das ein brandneuer gold bull market begonnen hat, ähnlich zu dem Rekorde brechenden bull market von den späten 70ern/frühen 80ern.
Trying to Beat the House (of Cards)
By Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)
8/26/2002 2:41 PM ET

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp…

Has the QQQ Hit a Stop Sign?
By Todd Salamone
8/26/2002 12:28 PM ET

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp…

BusinessWeek:
-------------------

Technical Market Insight
From the Experts at Personal Investing
by Mark Arbeter

More Pain in Store


The recent market action has been encouraging from a short-term perspective, and we see further gains in the near future. However, a ton of supply (resistance) awaits stocks overhead and is likely to force the market back down later this year -- and set up a test of the July lows.

Since the capitulation low set on July 23, the price action of the indexes has played out as expected. The indexes quickly regained all the ground lost during their 4-day freefall (July 18 to July 23). This action is quite common because when the market turns, it is faced with little resistance. During dramatic price declines, little buying is done and therefore there is little if any supply to eat through once the market reverses.

Now the real work for the market begins, as the gains are likely to be harder from here on out because the indexes will have to push through more and more supply (chart resistance) as well as trendline resistance.

The S&P 500 broke out above short-term resistance at 912 on Thursday, Aug. 15, and in the process, traced out a series of higher highs and higher lows for the first time since late last year. This upside break also sent the index through a downward sloping trendline that has kept a lid on prices since May. The "500" should be able to extend its current rally to the 945 to 1000 area where chart resistance comes into play.

The index also faces resistance at 1000 from a trendline drawn off the March and May highs. The 50-day exponential moving average, which provides resistance in a bear market, lies at 935 while the 150-day EMA comes in at 1025. Another way to measure a potential short-term advance for the index is by applying a 50% retracement of the losses since May. This would target 975 while a 61.8% retracement would equate to 1021.

Obviously, there are many blockades for the market above current levels, but an initial move to 1000 represents a hefty 25% advance from the closing low of 797.70 on July 23.

Besides the minor price breakout by the S&P 500, there have been some other positive developments. The market has begun to ignore bad news and rise in the face of negative headlines. During the bottoming process of a bear market, the news will almost certainly be heavily weighted toward the negative variety, but when the market can begin to brush this news aside and look to the future, that is at least a short-term positive. However, during short periods of time, the market has risen in the face of bad news during the last couple of years so it is too early to suggest that a new long-term bullish phase is upon us.

Another positive is that when the market opens lower, it has a tendency to turn during the day and either close way off its lows or higher for the day. This is just the opposite of when the market was in a downtrend. During the decline, the market would open higher many times, but then finish on the weak side. Emotional trading rules the opening period of many market days while the so-called smart money buy and sell later in the day. The market has also risen on higher volume and dropped on lower volume. However, the recent up days have not been accompanied by greater than average volume.

While the positive technical developments are certainly welcome, there are a number of overriding negatives that will limit the upside potential. The long-term trend of the market remains bearish, with monthly price and momentum trends still negative. These will take time to turn bullish considering the weakness over the last couple of years. There has been a clear lack of quality leadership during the recent strength. This is not surprising given that the majority of price charts of individual stocks remain very poor. This suggests that a period of base-building will be necessary to repair the massive chart damage suffered by many stocks.

Seasonally, we are currently in the slowest trading month of the year, so a large move either way is unlikely. This then leads into the months of September and October - ones that have not been kind to the equity markets. We are bullish short-term but remain skeptical that any price strength will be sustainable. We still believe the final low will be posted late in the third quarter or during the fourth quarter.

Monday Morning Alert
By Jerry Wang
8/26/2002 9:00 AM ET

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp…

Bush Aides Say Iraq War Needs No Hill Vote
Some See Such Support As Politically Helpful

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61040-2002Aug…

Saddam to be target of Britain`s `E-bomb`
By Michael Smith, Defence Correspondent
(Filed: 26/08/2002)

http://www.news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/20…
Ein Barrons Artikel!

Monday, September 9, 2002
Miner Keys

Longtime gold booster says the metal is due for a rousing comeback

An Interview With James Turk - Gold appears to have broken out of its longtime funk. But is the move just a flash in the pan or something more substantial? For an answer, we turned to one of the more obsessed gold authorities we know, James Turk, publisher of the Freemarket Gold & Money Report newsletter and founder and managing director of Goldmoney.com, a company striving to make the metal the currency of choice in global commerce, especially in cross-border transactions. An international banker and manager of the commodity department for the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for much of the `Eighties, Turk spent most of the `Nineties providing strategic advice and forecasts to investment managers. To learn why he thinks gold is on the cusp of a new bull market and which stocks he`s focused on, please read on.

--Sandra Ward

Barron`s: Gold has had quite a run. What can we expect going forward?

Turk: The move we had earlier in the year was so good, we were bound to see some consolidation in July and August, which is normally a quiet time of the year for gold, anyway, and that`s what we got. Now, my expectation is we will test resistance at the $325-an-ounce threshold again in either September or October. I believe $325 will be crossed this year and that will mark the beginning of the bull market in gold.


Turk believes his "fear index" now favors gold.


Gold had been in a clear down trend through the `Nineties until May 1999, when the Bank of England said it would sell half its gold reserves. That resulted in panic selling and gold bottomed in July 1999 at $252 an ounce. It worked its way higher, then tested that low in early 2000 before climbing the past few years to current levels. What we`ve seen is a huge base being formed and the price going higher as the metal has been accumulated. Once the $325 level is taken out, that will signal the beginning of a new bull market.

Q: We`ve had a bear market in gold for 20 years. So how long will a bull market last?
A: I have a long-term model I use to identify trends in the gold market that I call the "fear index." The index reflects the relative position of gold compared to the dollar. When fear about monetary problems is rising, people move to gold from dollars, and the fear index captures these moves. The index is calculated by taking the U.S. gold reserve, multiplying it by the gold price and dividing it by M3, the broadest measure of money supply, to quantify the percentage of gold relative to dollars in circulation and determine the level of confidence in the dollar and any possible cyclical patterns. The fear index shows four distinct bullish cycles for gold since 1971, when the gold standard was abandoned: inflation in the early and late `Seventies, the savings-and-loan crisis in the `Eighties and then the collapse of the exchange-rate mechanism in the early `Nineties when George Soros broke the Bank of England. We just got the fifth buy signal at the end of May. At the least, these cycles tend to last a couple of years. We don`t know how long this one is going to last, but my expectation is we`re at the beginning of another bullish cycle that will last at least two years.

Q: But if you`re looking at gold reserves as a percentage of M3,doesn`t flooding the system with liquidity skew the result?
A: All I`m doing is taking the year-to-year growth in M3 at the end of each month and plotting it on a chart. Back in the 1970s, we had double-digit inflation rates because we had double-digit rates of growth in M3. Then, former Fed chairman Paul Volcker`s mandate was to reduce inflation, and he did it by reducing the growth rate of M3. Fed Chairman Greenspan continued those disinflationary policies when he came into office in 1987. In 1992 we had a short period of deflation when M3 declined from the previous year`s level. This 1992 period is significant, because it marks the blowup in the exchange-rate mechanism. But the Volcker-Greenspan policies became so painful to European countries, Italy and Great Britain specifically, that they chose to break from the exchange-rate mechanism and pursue their own course. That was a message for reinflation in the `Nineties and we`ve had massive growth in M3 since then. The early part of this reinflation led to the 1993-1994 bull market in gold and gold stocks. And the reinflation has continued.

Now we`re headed to the next stage, which isn`t supply-driven, but rather a demand-driven issue. When you talk about inflation or deflation, you`re talking about the quantity of dollars and therefore the supply of dollars. Yet we need to focus on demand for dollars rather than the supply of dollars, because we assume demand remains constant though it doesn`t work that way in the real world. The demand for the Argentine peso disappeared overnight. I am not saying that`s going to happen with the dollar, but the dollar nevertheless has fallen in the foreign-exchange markets, which suggests that the Fed isn`t contracting the growth of M3 fast enough to maintain the dollar`s strength relative to other currencies of the world.

Q: So are we heading into a deflationary period?
A: I don`t think so. I wouldn`t call it inflationary; I wouldn`t call it deflationary. We will see rising prices, not because of the dramatic increase in supply of dollars, but because of dramatic decreases in demand for dollars. The supply of dollars may remain the same, but if demand declines, the dollar purchases less, which expressed in terms of prices means that prices will be rising.

Q: Talk about China`s role in the gold dynamic.
A: The Chinese impact on gold will be extremely profound. The Chinese-language character for gold is the same as the one for money. As far as the Chinese are concerned, gold is money. The Chinese central bank reported an increase in their gold holdings to the International Monetary Fund last year. But the number is still small, about 500 tons compared with 395 previously reported. The general market view, though, is that the Chinese central bank has been accumulating gold and not reporting all their holdings to the IMF.

Q: Somebody must be selling it to them.
A: Now you are getting into the whole issue of who is selling the gold and who is shorting gold. There is a point of view that, in addition to some mining companies, banks and other financial institutions have been borrowing gold to fund dollar assets and earn a spread similar to that of the yen carry trade of a few years ago. People were borrowing yen at 0.5% to fund dollar assets and making 5% on the spread until the yen started to appreciate. Now, gold is being borrowed from the central banks and sold into the market in exchange for dollars. That`s fine in a declining gold-price environment, but in a rising gold environment it can kill you. We know the central banks loan the gold, but it`s unclear which ones are doing it and how much they are loaning out.

There is evidence to suggest the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a quasi-government agency under the direct control of the U.S. Treasury secretary and the president, has been active in the gold market. If the gold price were to rise, the multinational banks who are the big shorts in the gold market wouldn`t be able to cover their shorts and would take big hits. That`s why the ESF is involved to help manage the price of gold. It isn`t unprecedented that gold is loaned or flows into the market. What`s unprecedented is the lack of disclosure. My sense of it is that there`s more than 10,000 tons loaned into the market by central banks. If that`s true, that`s four times annual production. Can you imagine if people were short four times wheat production in one year? There is systemic risk here.

Q: Are you recommending people buy gold bullion, or should they buy gold stocks?
A: People make a mistake thinking bullion is an investment. Mining stocks fall into the investment category, but bullion is cash. It isn`t an investment. You buy bullion for liquidity purposes. You buy bullion for safety purposes, because there is no return to bullion unless you lend it out. It`s clear, though, that people see gold as an increasingly important component of their cash and liquidity holdings.


According to Turk, "People make a mistake thinking bullion is an investment. Mining stocks fall into the stock category, but bullion is cash. It isn`t an investment."


Q: What about gold stocks?
A: There are two models that I like to use. The XAU, which is the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, is a basket of about nine different mining stocks, including the majors and some good quality second-tier stocks as well. Tracking the 12-month year-over-year change in the XAU provides a good sell signal if it registers 50% growth over the previous year, regardless of the price of the XAU. Conversely, when the XAU declines 25% to 30% from the previous year, it`s typically a good buy signal in terms of relative appreciation.

Another model I find useful is one that quantifies how many gold grams are needed to purchase one XAU share. For example, the XAU now trades at about 72. A gram of gold is about $10. By dividing the gram price into the XAU price, we see it takes about seven grams of gold to purchase one XAU. This is significant, because historically the gold-mining stocks have been relatively inexpensive and represented good buys at times when it takes about six grams to buy an XAU share. When it takes 10 or more grams to purchase one XAU, the mining stocks tend to be relatively expensive. Even though six months ago we had a breakout from the six-year downtrend in gold stocks, we`ve retraced and we`re close to a buying opportunity where gold stocks look cheap compared with gold bullion.

Q: But what about the fundamentals of gold stocks? Don`t you have to look at hedging and what it costs to get the gold out of the ground, rather than just gold`s price?
A: There are a number of measures to use to evaluate gold stocks. The first one to consider is whether a company has hedged future production. That`s the great divide. I recommend gold-mining stocks that don`t hedge or have minimal hedged positions, because if the gold price rises, the stocks that are hedged are giving up potential cash flow by being forced to deliver into those hedges below the market price. There are a number of companies that have losses on their hedges simply because the gold price has risen beyond the price at which they sold forward.

Q: What else do you consider before buying a gold-mining stock?
A: The second consideration is the cost of production -- not just the operating cost, but the total cost basis to get the gold out of the ground. In this regard, there are two types of mines: underground mines, with deep shafts that enable the ore to be mined, and open-pit mines from which the gold is dug out. Generally speaking, the underground mines have a high capital cost, and the open-pit mines have a relatively lower capital cost but higher operating costs.

Say a mine has a total production cost of $280 an ounce, and the price of gold is $300 an ounce. It makes $20 per ounce. Say another mine has a total production cost of $100, gold is at $300 and so it makes a profit of $200. If the gold price were to rise to $320 from $300, the mine that has a $280 total cost is doubling its profit from $20 to $40 per ounce, whereas the one that has a $100 cost is only increasing its profit by 10%. The company with the higher total production cost is operating on the margin, and any increase in the gold price has a much more immediate impact on the bottom line than it would for the low-cost operators. In a bull market, the marginal stocks will tend to outperform. There`s more risk associated with them, but as the gold price rises there`s more potential as well. It always comes back to risk versus return. The nonmarginal low-cost producers won`t have as much appreciation, perhaps, but they will go up as well.

Table: Turk`s Picks

Company Symbol Recent Price
Harmony Gold Mining HGMCY $15.53
Durban Deep DROOY 4.09
AngloGold AU 24.48
Goldcorp GG 10.90
Newmont Mining NEM 29.22
Glamis Gold GLG 9.73
Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM 15.58
Iamgold IMGDF 3.70

Pans
Newcrest Mining NCMGF $3.75
Sons of Gwalia SOGAF 2.42


Q: What are other factors to consider?
A: No. 1 is management and the quality of the balance sheet, but you also have to look at the quality of the mine, the life of the mine and political risks.

Q: So it wouldn`t be wise to just buy a basket of gold stocks to play a rise in the price of gold?
A: I wouldn`t recommend it. I would recommend that you pick and choose very carefully companies that aren`t hedged, whose managements have a demonstrated record of success and the potential for paying dividends down the road. As the gold price goes up, the mine has two options: It can take the excess cash flow and expand its business to other areas and buy more mines, or it can pay a dividend to their shareholders over the life of the mine. Some of these are very long-lived mines.

Q: Which companies are you recommending?
A: In South Africa, my favorite is Harmony Gold Mining. This is a company that changed the face of mining in South Africa. Under the old system, mining houses would operate a series of mines and they would collect a fee for doing that. That system broke down. Harmony emerged as a great management team with some very good properties, and they built up one of the world`s biggest mining companies. It`s got a relatively high cost structure, so it`s leveraged to the gold price. Durban Deep is a more speculative turnaround story that is also highly leveraged to the gold price. It was a marginal mine and there was a lot of uncertainty about its future. They put a good management team in place with Mark Wellesley-Wood, the new chief executive, but I wanted him to put together two good quarters before I recommended the stock. He did that in the second and third quarter last year.

Q: Anything more recent?
A: In the last couple of months, I recommended adding AngloGold. Anglo-Gold is the largest South African mining company and it`s the second-largest gold producer in the world. It`s been aggressively reducing its hedge book. And it`s a good dividend payer. Plus, they have a lot of geographical diversification.

Q: What are you looking at in North America?
A: The premier stock is Goldcorp. It`s a wonderful situation. They are mining the world`s richest gold mine in Canada in an area that`s been a major producing area for 70 years. Their existing mine has many years to go. They have a good management team and one of the best balance sheets and cash-flow positions in the mining industry. It has shown tremendous price appreciation over the past 10 years and it`s outperformed the S&P 500. It has been a growth stock because they discovered a new deposit next to an old mine that is now the world`s richest gold mine. They`re raking it in. To put it into perspective, they`re mining gold with a grade of more than two ounces per ton. Many mines can make money on gold with a grade of a fifth or less of an ounce per ton. It`s a tremendous company, and even though it`s done extremely well, there`s still a significant opportunity. They pay a dividend and I expect the dividend will continue not only to be secure but will increase along with the price of gold. They just announced a dividend increase of 20% Wednesday. It`s a real Cinderella story.

Q: What else do you like?
A: Newmont Mining I like. It`s got a hedge position bigger than I would like to see. The hedge came from Normandy Mining in the three-way merger of Franco-Nevada, Normandy and Newmont. Management has indicated they wanted to reduce the hedge position. However, they`ve been very slow in going about it. For now I am willing to live with the situation because management owns a big chunk of shares and I like that commitment. Newmont is the world`s biggest producer. They`ve got some great mines and good geographical diversification. The balance sheet is much improved after the merger and they have the tactical brilliance of President Pierre Lassonde on their side, which to my mind goes a long way.

Q: Any other more recent buys?
A: I`ve just added a few more to my buy list, one U.S. company and two Canadian companies. The U.S. company is Glamis Gold. They are very good operators. They`re nonhedged and they`ve just acquired a couple of Central American properties. One of the two Canadian companies is Agnico-Eagle Mines, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. They have no hedging policy on precious metals, though they hedge some base metals and run an underground mine in Canada. The other one is Iamgold. It jointly owns two mines in Mali with AngloGold, which is the operator. And both Mali properties are world-class. Iamgold gets a share of the revenue as an owner and Anglo gets a share for owning and operating. Iamgold is a cash cow, and because it`s completely unhedged, it`s a very, very attractive way to benefit from a rising gold-price environment.

Q: What don`t you like?
A: I don`t recommend any Australian stocks now, simply because their hedge positions are underwater. Newcrest Mining is one pan; its hedge book is negative US$440 million. But my top pan is Australia`s Sons of Gwalia. It has a US$340 million unrealized loss on its hedge book and is relatively more hedged than Newcrest, and its properties aren`t as good.

Q: Are they at risk of bankruptcy?
A: There are two points of view. Some will argue that they don`t risk bankruptcy because eventually they`re going to produce the gold. In theory, that`s true, as long as there`s no operating problems. But they may receive pressure from the banks because the banks don`t want the companies to carry these huge unrealized loss positions in the event of a disruption in the production of the gold. In 1999, when gold rallied, we saw two mining companies -- Ashanti and Cambior -- go bankrupt in everything but name. Their hedged positions killed them. They were selling aggressively on the way down and got caught when gold rose to more than $300 an ounce. Now the question is: Who will be caught at $350 an ounce?

Q: Thanks, James.
Gold fund glitters in dull market
Steve Johnson
FT.com site; Sep 17, 2002

"Of Gold Fields , his largest holding, he says: "Two or three years ago it could be bought for the equivalent of less than $20 an ounce for reserves in the ground."

Gold Fields is among the 41 per cent of the portfolio that is invested in South African-based stocks - a market that was recently hit by the release of a draft mining charter drawn up by the nation`s department of Minerals and Energy calling for a substantial transfer of mining assets to black ownership.

Not good news

"We were quite upset by the draft mines charter and took the view that it was not good news," Mr Birch says understatedly. "Subsequently the government has backed away and things have calmed down a bit."

As a result of the uncertainty, Mr Birch said he would be looking for higher returns from South African stocks to compensate. But he argues that Gold Fields, as well as other leading South African holdings such as AngloGold and Harmony Gold , have all diversified their operations into other countries.

Although North America and Australia (at 28 and 11 per cent respectively) are the next largest regions in Gold & General, there is a strong overall emerging markets bias. Despite the uncertainty this can bring, as South Africa has vividly shown, Mr Birch sees this as a positive.

Licence to print money

"These economies tend to have weak currencies. This is quite a good thing for a gold mine, which is a machine that prints hard currency. In a weak currency area profits are greater, as costs are in the local currency and income is in US dollars."
Gold execs make bold bullion bets

Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch
Sep 23, 2002 12:30PM ET

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Executives from some of the world`s most successful gold companies say they expect further gains for the metal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/calandra/calandra092302.ht…
Kauft mehr von Harmony Gold! Die Marktrallye bei dem breiten Markt (Dow Jones, DAX, Nasdaq und Nemax) wird nicht mehr lange andauern. Und man braucht nicht auf eine Katastrophe warten, um von Ihr zu profitieren. Die Unsicherheit über die geopolitischen Probleme läßt das Gold steigen. Und man kann Gold wie eine Versicherungspolice verwenden. Bei dem Marktennen des breiten Marktes ist der Dampf nun raus. Seht wie die Indizes sich nun aufmachen um neue historische Tiefs zu setzen. Es ist halt nur eine weitere (sucker) bear market Rallye gewesen. LOL:)

peter.wedemeier1


"Harmony did well, but has yet to resolve its nearby Down Trend Line. Momentum broke out of the Downtrend as the MACD developed a positive crossover.

We also have established an Up Trend Line from late July low to the recent low."

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/10…
Among those with strong RS (Relative Strength) were Royal Gold (again), Glamis, Harmony, Goldfields, Meridian, Newmont. U can judge RS for yourself, just compare the price action, one chart with another. If U move out of weak shares into stronger RS shares it obviously strengthens your pf (portfolio).

Gold Charts R Us
"Trade gold stocks to triple your profits."
GOLDEN BALL in your court

from Harry Schultz
posted November 8, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schultz/schultz110802.html
COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR:

This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.

What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.

I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.

Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:

Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.

This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.

We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.
The Fifteeth Annual
San Francisco Precious Metals Conference
December 1-2, 2002
The San Francisco Marriott, 55 and 4th Street

Focusing on value investments and wealth preservation with the global leaders in gold, precious metals and mining.



http://www.iiconf.com/SanFrancisco/
Hallo zusammen,

wird Harmony (HGMCY) heute nicht gehandelt?
Ich finde zur Zeit keine Kurse.

Gruß
aneises2
Ich sehe gerade das Symbol hat sich geändert
ab sofort unter HMY

Gruß
aneises12
Damit alle gut von mir denken, beginne ich auch mal mit dem "kopieren"

aus kitco com:


Turk goes so far as to reference Robert Prechter`s Elliott Wave forecast - that the price of gold will move below $200 an ounce before finally ending its 22-year bear market.
Harmony (851267) riecht nach Nachholbedarf! Die Aktie der Gesellschaft notierte bereits bei einem Goldunzenpreis von 352 US$ bei über 17 Euro.
Dow Jones Business News
Harmony Gold/2nd Quarter: Cash Costs $222/Oz Versus $198/Oz
Monday January 27, 5:49 am ET

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. - Johannesburg
3 Months Dec. 31:
All figures in U.S. dollars and cents.

2002 2001
Net Profit $48.0 mln $30.6 mln
Gold Produced 774,121 oz 594,272 oz
Share Earns 27.0c 20.0c
Cash Costs $/Oz 222 198
Reuters
UPDATE - Harmony Dec qtr EPS up, eyes investments
Monday January 27, 6:10 am ET

(Adds background, details, shares)

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 27 (Reuters) - South Africa`s number three bullion producer Harmony Gold (HARJ.J) said on Monday headline earnings rose in the December quarter although the increase was limited by the rand`s gains, and added it would keep pursuing strategic investments.

ADVERTISEMENT
<http://s0b.bluestreak.com/ix.e?ir&s=94323&n=1043667282009079…
"In terms of growth in production and EPS the company is well on track to improve on the previous year`s performance and is confident that planned year-on-year production growth of 16 percent, which will see the company produce in excess of 3.1 million ounces per annum, is achievable," it said.

Harmony said headline earnings per share, which strip out exceptional items and their tax effects, rose to 255.2 cents from 244.2 cents in the previous quarter. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast headline EPS of 247.6 cents.

Its gold price received fell to 100,171 rand per kilogram, from 106,463 rand per kilogram in the previous quarter, showing the effects of the strengthening rand.

Analysts had expected South African gold miners to be hurt by the rand in the December quarter. The currency appreciated by nearly 40 percent against the dollar last year, cancelling out gains for miners from a 25 percent rise in the gold price. Much of the rand`s gains came towards the end of 2002.

After the results, Harmony`s share price cancelled earlier gains of 1.3 percent, to trade just below overnight levels at 150.20 rand, down 0.5 percent.

Cash operating profit fell to 763 million rand from 950 million rand in the September quarter, while cash costs rose to $222/oz from $204/oz in the previous quarter.

"In line with our growth strategy it has in the past, and definitely will in the future, become necessary for the company to make strategic investments in corporate entities," said Harmony chief executive Bernard Swanepoel.

He welcomed recent gains in the gold price, but said they would not encourage miners to return to their "bad habits" of hedging.

"The rising gold price may mean that now is not the smartest time to be buying growth opportunities. At these prices excellent returns are available from internal or organic growth projects which Harmony today owns," Harmony said.

It approved an interim dividend of 125 cents, up two-thirds on the previous year`s interim dividend of 75 cents.
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=31658

South African gold producer, Harmony Gold Mining Company, announced that it would focus strongly on organic growth, rather than acquisition as it had done in the past.

CE Bernard Swanepoel told journalists yesterday that the rising gold price does not create a favourable market for buying growth opportunities, but would provide excellent returns from internal or organic growth.

The company has completed 23 acquisitions in the past seven years, giving it a portfolio of, what is believed to be the most prospective shallow- to medium-depth mining project areas remaining in South Africa.

Swanepoel said Harmony?s growth strategy would be to focus on projects that had already been partially completed, before being abandoned by developers. This, he explained, gives Harmony the advantage of developing a project into which money had already been invested and infrastructure set up, thus eliminating a large degree of technical risk.

He revealed that the company had acquired many parts of the shallow orebody on the Witwatersrand Basin.

?The mines we bought were previous generation old mines, that were profitable shallow mines and that can now be developed and become even more profitable medium to deep level mines,? said Swanepoel.

He emphasised, however, that the new strategy does not preclude further acquisitions for Harmony, explaining that price would be the determining factor.

?Harmony was always a buyer and then a builder, but now due to the gold price, the company would most likely become a builder then a buyer. I?m not saying we will stop acquisitions altogether. If the price is right, why not buy?? Three South African projects that have thus far been approved by Harmony?s board are said to have secured the company?s organic growth for the next five years.

The most recently announced project, Doornkop South Reef ? part of Harmony?s Randfontein operations ? has an in situ resource of 6,6-million ounces of gold and life of mine is estimated at some 20 years. The project, stopped and started several times by its previous owners, is essentially a shaft-deepening operation.

At full production of 330 000 oz/y, 2798 employment opportunities will have been created. The venture is also a BEE partnership for Harmony, with 26% of Doornkop belonging to African Vanguard Resources.

Tshepong North Decline is another organic growth project approved by the Harmony board and is a 50% joint venture with Free Gold ? another BEE partnership. The venture requires development of a decline, at a capital cost of R280-million. This mine would provide an additional 167 000 oz/y over a period of eight years and would create a further 980 employment opportunities.

Another organic growth opportunity for Harmony is the Nyala Shaft, where the opportunity to re-open the shaft is being evaluated. Current ?care and maintenance? of the mine is estimated at R166,5-million over the life of mine. Extraction of the shaft pillar and high-grade reserves at a capital cost of R67,4-million would allow for a life of mine of seven years (560 000 oz).

Swanepoel said that Harmony?s operations in other parts of the world could secure up to ten years of organic growth, referring to growth in Russia, which currently contributes some 60 000 oz of gold a year, and Bendigo, in Australia, which could add as much as 200 000 oz of gold a year to Harmony?s production ? an amount which is between 6% and 7% of Harmony?s current three-million ounces a year.

He added, however, that the company has no plans to diversify into platinum mining.

?Most platinum opportunities are currently overpriced and this is not a key strategy. If it was to happen, it is likely that Kalplats would take Harmony into platinum mining,? he said.

Kalplats is a new platinum orebody discovered by Harmony and Swanepoel said it could be sold at the right price.

?Because it is a new discovery, the market is somewhat sceptical. We could develop the mine ourselves, but that would depend on the metallurgy and the platinum price?.

Metallurgical results are expected by the end of March.
Übrigens, Harmony notiert zur Zeit bei 14,40€ in Frankfurt. Mit einem Goldpreis von 370$ ist das ein wahres Schnäppchen. Das sind Kurse, die wir mit POG bei 300-310$ hatten :rolleyes:
Among the cheapest gold miners, according to Doody`s valuation model, are African miners Randgold (RANGY: news, chart, profile), Ahanti Goldfields (ASL: news, chart, profile), Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI: news, chart, profile) and Harmony Gold (HMY: news, chart, profile). Canada`s Eldorado Gold (CA:ELD: news, chart, profile), Peru`s Buenaventura Mines (BVNOF: news, chart, profile) and Denver`s Golden Star Resources (GSS: news, chart, profile) are also dirt-cheap, Doody says.

Doody says his valuation model is a starting point for identifying undervalued mining shares. "This is a very simplistic approach, but it`s a method one can use to start evaluating the gold stocks." The gold analyst is sticking to his 2003 forecast of a $450 gold price.

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH
Gold stocks valued below spot price
Some producers trading as if metal is 10 percent lower
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET March 3, 2003



SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Not six months ago, gold miners were the stock market`s biggest money-maker. Now they`re the new whipping boys.

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/cbsmw/?p=HMY&ntlink=…
wollte die grundsolide Harmony noch mal
hochholen.

Anlaß: heute kam von der Depotbank
die Harmony-Offerte für die
Abelle aktien 0,75 A$ und optionen 0,45A$.

Nicht schlecht, aber richtig gut für Harmony.

Management zeigt, dass man Ideen hat und
umsetzt.

Übrigens, der Zerfall des staus quo an
Finanzmärkten und an der Islamfront
wird nächste woche für "Volatilität"
sorgen.

Oder kann alles so weiter gehen wie bisher?


Gruss
Tsuba


HMY (+ 2.55% bei $12.06) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von VGZ übernommen. HMY führt nun vor GSS (+ 2.50% bei $2.05) und RGLD (+ 2.41% bei $17.84).

Go Gold Go!


HMY (+ 4.71% bei $13.35) führt im US-Handel vor GFI (+ 4.47% bei $11.68) und DROOY (+ 4.21% bei $2.72).

Go Gold Go!
Mit dem heutigen Anstieg auf 13,15 € (+4,2%) dürfte nun auch im Euro-Chart der Weg bis 14 € freigeräumt sein.

HARMONY GOLD MINING CO. LTD. Registered Shares (WKN 851 267)

!
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WWW.DER AKTIONAER.DE #04/04

18.000 RAND IM VISIER

Die Aktien von Harmony Gold haben im
Zeitraum April bis Mai 2003 ihren langfristigen
Aufwärtstrend erfolgreich verteidigt. Dieser
verlief damals knapp unter 8.000 Südafrikanische
Rand. Danach setzte eine Erholungsphase
ein, die sich nun als Dreiecksformation
im Chart eintragen lässt. Im Laufe
dieser Erholungsphase drehten die 100-
und die 200-Tage-Linie von fallend auf steigend.
Das heißt, die durchschnittliche Kursentwicklung
der letzten 100 beziehungsweise
200 Tage ist positiv.
Der nächste wichtige Widerstand, der nun
überwunden werden muss, liegt im Bereich
11.600 bis 11.700 Rand. Danach wäre der Weg
frei in Richtung Allzeithoch, das bei 18.000
Rand liegt. Die Aktien von Harmony Gold können
auch in Deutschland und in den USA gehandelt
werden.

UNSERE EINSCHÄTZUNG
– Aktien von Harmony Gold kaufen;
entweder in Deutschland unter der
WKN 851 267 (Originalaktien) oder in
den USA unter dem Kürzel HMY (Achtung!
Die WKN der in den USA gehandelten
HMY-Aktien lautet 864 439.
Wenn Ihre Bank für den Kauf in den
USA eine WKN benötigt, müssen Sie
864 439 angeben.)
– Erstes Kursziel: 18,00 Euro
– Zweites Kursziel (12-Monate):
26,00 Euro
– Stopp: 9,00 Euro
– Wechselkurs US-Dollar/Rand beobachten;
je schwächer der Rand
läuft, desto besser für Harmony Gold
http://waehrungen.onvista.de/exchange_
rates.html
armony Gold leidet derzeit unter
der starken südafrikanischen Währung
Rand. Dennoch befindet sich das
Unternehmen auf einem klaren Wachstumskurs
und steigt nach der Übernahme
von ARM Gold mit einer jährlichen
Goldproduktion von über vier
Millionen Unzen und mit Goldressourcen
von 410 Millionen Unzen in die Weltspitzenklasse
der Goldproduzenten auf.

Die Aktien von Harmony Gold können sich auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten verdoppeln.
Neuer Anlauf auf das Allzeithoch


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