Goldpreis-Attentat -die HEDGER sind die kommenden Looser- - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[manfred1_I]

Kaum ein Bericht über dieses heikle Thema.
Vielleicht eine Erklärung, warum die Goldminen
am Freitagabend in NY schon wieder steigend
waren.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman061502.html

June 15, 2002

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Gold Scene

The FED has completed its monetization of 9/11 as it has done in every crisis since 1987, when they not only force fed aggregates, rigged the stock market, but also destroyed the gold market knocking it down $100 an ounce in one day. We expect once the FED is again forced to raise rates then the monetary spigot will again be opened with greater force than ever. That will not make the economy recover; it will send the stock market lower and gold higher. The ongoing complicating factor is perpetual war for perpetual peace, which is economically unproductive and will create massive unsustainable debt. Even risk and political uncertainty is tailor made for higher gold prices, so you cannot be out of gold and silver related assets...

Last week the gold manipulators pulled another stealth attack (1. GOLDPREIS-ATTENTAT) overnight in Australia with a follow-up in London. They then pounded the US market but could not put the gold price under $318 an ounce.

JP Morgan in an attempt to look unbiased predicted a price in 2002 of $305 and in 2003 of $310 to $325 an ounce. This of course is disinformation, but it does show the gold cartel has given up trying to keep prices under $325 an ounce. The anti-gold propaganda as we predicted is all over the media, 99% one-sided. If anything, they have to fight the growing notion that gold has resumed its safe haven role.
This, while the dollar declines and gold production falls. In 1999 the gold producers hedged over 500 tons, but this year they will probably buy in 400 tons. That effectively takes 900 tons out of the market a swing of 23% in a total market of 3,850 tons. The best part is that the hedgers have just begun to cover. Between them and the shorts we are looking at 15,000 tons. The ball has started rolling and it is only going to pick up momentum. The momentum has shifted and those hedges and shorts have finally given gold an underpinning it hasn`t had since 1985. Producers know no matter how much they make hedging it won`t stop the investing public from not buying or selling their shares and that is what this is all about. Share price appreciation. The hedgers are in a zero sum game they cannot now win.

Small and medium sized central banks have no gold left to sell or hedge. The only leasors or derivative participants left are the major central banks and leasing due to low interest rates is no longer viable. Now that gold is firmly in the low $300`s many new participants have entered the long side of the market. Thus we see much higher gold prices. You do not want to be out of this market. Those who trade out could get left behind. An absolute worst-case scenario for gold over the next year is $512 an ounce. We are headed toward a lower stock market and lower bond prices due to lack of earnings and higher interest rates and when historically these things have happened, gold has moved higher. As the dollar devalues and deflation expresses itself the price of gold has to rise. Remember gold is a currency and it becomes the only refuge in the flight to quality from the dollar. In holding gold shares, bullion and coins don`t attempt to trade the market unless you are a professional. Go long and stay long. You only trade in the futures and options arena and again if not a professional get first class assistance. Foreign capital is fleeing the dollar and there are few real viable alternatives and gold is one of them. The trend in gold is up and the trend is your friend.

[manfred1_I]

Die Russen machen sich auch so ihre Gedanken.

Wann weitet sich dieses zu einem Riesenskandal aus??

Bush war has heart of gold
Central banks all over the world have supposedly conspired to maintain furiously high, Enron-type derivative short positions against gold to keep it in an artificial bear market for, oh, say, the last couple of decades.

Independent sources say the problem is the value of gold reserves in nearly all the world’s central banks is about even with the derivative shorts held by roughly the same banks, at $320 per ounce. So, theoretically, if a margin call were to come in today, central banks would have to pay out all gold in all their reserves worldwide.

According to a recent International Monetary Fund survey, commercial banks in 48 top nations reported holding risky derivative positions on 900 million troy ounces of gold. The actual worldwide gold production is just 50 million troy ounces. With each passing year, the real value of gold becomes increasingly more difficult to suppress artificially and so requires more funds in the derivative market. The game of keeping gold supply artificially high is alleged to serve central banks in keeping their inflated paper currencies artificially valuable, but the buck has to stop somewhere.

It doesn’t stop there. Insiders correctly point out there are only three economic means out of such a debacle: to print money, to default or to borrow. Traditionally, banks have chosen to sell debt and delay decisions in similar cases. But the debt market has dried up, along with the bank accounts of would-be investors.

For example, some say there is five times as much public and private debt in the United States as total dollars in the money supply, at $35 trillion and $7 trillion, respectively. Printing money to meet debts largely owed to the privately owned foreign banks that make up the U.S. Federal Reserve would be economic and political suicide, obviously, and so would be a default, but there is one long shot reportedly in the works: A highly collusive war that engineers a massive wealth transfer, much like Desert Storm but on a larger scale, might just save our economies.

Whoa, wait a minute. Aren’t we at war against terrorists? How did all this get started? The answer is that our world is a dynamic reality where multiple events flow together as streams to a giant river. Unbeknownst to our friends in the mass media, most of our world’s problems can’t be reduced to a single target or personality. Alas, complex issues don’t sell airtime.

Global currencies fluctuate against each other based on emotion and backed by psychology, not by assets as they once did. That is why the U.S. Federal Reserve puts psychology before economics every time. And so, the reasons the central banks would gain by keeping gold artificially low becomes more obvious from this perspective. As long as alternative investments to paper currencies are kept artificially unattractive, as in gold’s 22-year bear market, people will hold paper currency, keeping demand high and inflation at bay.

The clincher is this: The price of gold useful for industry is said to be valued at $350 by the market today, due to inflationary values that have not been figured into the price of gold for more than two decades. If that is true, and if central banks around the world are now losing their hedge against undervalued gold – threatening their very existence – then the price of gold will slingshot up and currencies all over the world will melt to 30-60 percent of their current values.

Could we really be at the beginning of a gold boom and concurrent currency meltdown? Can a controlled conflict save us from a certain collapse? Is the possibility of a controlled conflict in the Middle East even possible? And what sensational attack against which political personality will take place when the mass media resume their blame game? These and other questions are being answered by events playing out right now.

(Tate Ulsaker is president and founder of Direct INFO.)

[manfred1_I]

Wenn ich mir die Sache heute so ansehe, müssten
die Jungs ab 18.OO Uhr aktiv geworden sein.

Was müssen die verzweifelt sein.

[Nefprak]

manfred, verzweifelt sind die bestimmt nicht. die betreiben
dieses spiel seit jahren absolut perfekt. als gold und
silber experte müßtest du aber dieses wissen.

[manfred1_I]

Schaut euch mal den Beitrag Nr. 1087 bei Thai Guru
an. Da sind interessante Charts von den offenen
Positionen im Gold- Silberbereich.

[manfred1_I]

Bald können wir alle nur Mitleid mit den Banken
und deren Kunden haben, die hier schief liegen.

UK`s Dye warns of OTC derivatives market time-bomb

Reuters, 07.02.02, 7:19 AM ET

By Elif Kaban

LONDON, July 2 (Reuters)

British fund manager Tony Dye, whose warnings of a stock market bubble in the late 1990s earned him the nickname "Dr Doom", warned on Tuesday of a "lurking time bomb" of creative accounting in the derivatives market.

Speaking at a hedge fund conference in London, Dye also said fair value for stocks was about 60 percent of current valuations.

Dye said the value of outstanding contracts in the over-the-counter derivatives market had reached $110 trillion.

"There is a lurking time bomb in the OTC derivatives market which is now worth three times the world GDP," said Dye, who left his then employer, Swiss UBS unit Phillips & Drew, after refusing to jump on the dot.com bandwagon.

"The question is why are people using them so much. The real reason must be because some people are using these for creative accounting purposes," he said.

"My guess is that there`ll be some real nasties in the derivatives market in the next 12 to 18 months."

Dye, former boss of Phillips & Drew, warned for years that a bubble was developing in the stock market but his prophecies of doom were not believed.

He stepped down in February 2000 after 15 years as chief investment officer of Phillips & Drew.

Near the end of his tenure, Dye argued that equities were overvalued and due for a fall. His bearish stance lost pots of cash for his investors but within weeks of his departure, his predictions were proved correct.

Dye, now into his 15th month as a hedge fund manager, said that he had a negative view on stock markets and the U.S. economy, predicting a double-dip.

He said he strongly disagreed with fund managers recommending buying of stocks at current valuations saying the markets had not revalued themselves enough.

MARKETS STILL OVERVALUED

Dye said he estimated fair value in the markets at 60 percent of current levels.

"The question is at what point we reach this fair value," said Dye.

"If it is in the next six months, it is going to be very awful. If it takes longer, medium-term returns on equities are going to be very low over the next five to ten years."

Dye said that the magnitude of the bubble that burst following 10 years of a bull market in the 1990s compared favourably to previous economic bubbles.

"The rhyme here is quite a powerful one. The prospects for financial markets are very choppy with very low real returns, and high risk of return on the downside," he said.

"Nobody can predict the future, but bubbles are very destructive. They actually borrow growth from the future. They lead to a tremendous amount of wasted investment in projects that need to be scrapped," he said.

Dye said capacity utilisation in the U.S. economy, an indication of pricing power and corporate profitability, was at the lowest level since the early 1980s.

"The outlook for the U.S. economy is less good than people anticipated," said Dye.

"The capacity utilisation will fall yet again. Double-dip is much more likely than all the investment bankers` forecasts," he added.

Dye said that a ratio known as Tobin`s Q, which measures the replacement cost in the U.S. industry relative to the market, also remained high, currently at 1.8, way above its normal level of one.

"This implies that stock markets are still overvalued. If the value of a company is higher than its replacement cost of capital, then you shouldn`t be investing in it," he said.

With the bursting of the bubble, Dye said the excesses of the boom period, "the aggressiveness of chief executives and accountants in creating fictitious numbers" were now exposed,.

"We`re getting into that period when we`ll see all the fraudulent practices come to the surface. I`d like to remind people that in 1991-1992, people didn`t realise that Japanese banks were almost bankrupt," he said.

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service
(Vielen Dank auch an Thai Guru, dieser Beitrag passt
hier sehr gut hinein).

[manfred1_I]

Warum habt ihr mir nicht geglaubt????

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW, down 390 to 8019.
The DOG, down 38 to 1319.
The S&P, down 34 to 848.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why this stock market drop should surprise anyone. The P/E is still double the historic norm, that is if future corporate profits do not shrink.

For a VERY long time Midas has said that the investing public and Wall Street was not dealing with what happens to financial markets after a “bubble” bursts. They sure are finding out now. It’s not very pretty.

The Gold Cartel is in BIG trouble, or should it be Biggs trouble. That report is a home run for GATA and for the price of gold. I will go into that in the next Midas.

J.P. Morgan Chase closed at $26.10, down $1.10. It has broken all support and completed a massive TOP. It looks ominous. YES!

The CRB closed in new high ground for the umpteenth time at 213.95, up .67.

Yikes:

Friday, July 19, 2002

The United States trade deficit ballooned to a record $37.6-billion (U.S.) in May, reflecting Americans` ravenous appetite for foreign-made cars, TVs and clothes.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported Friday that the deficit was 4.1 per cent higher than the revised $36.1-billion trade gap reported for April.
Many analysts were predicting a slight narrowing of the trade imbalance in May.

Get this, ANOTHER “price-fixing conspiracy.” They are a dime a dozen in America. How can the gold industry be such a bunch of empty suits on this issue when the gold price-fixing conspiracy has stared them RIGHT IN FACE for SO MANY YEARS? Blows my mind.

DaimlerChrysler Is Being Probed for Price Fixing
Washington, July 19 (Bloomberg) -- DaimlerChrysler AG said the U.S. Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into allegations the company`s Mercedes-Benz subsidiaries took part in a price-fixing scheme among U.S. dealers.

The No. 5 carmaker said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that the investigation is connected to a class-action lawsuit previously filed against two of its Mercedes-Benz units. The subsidiaries, Mercedes-Benz USA LLC and Mercedes-Benz Manhattan Inc., have been served with grand jury subpoenas, the company said.

The class-action lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Newark, New Jersey, accuses the units of participating with the dealers in a ``price-fixing conspiracy,`` the company said. Last October, DaimlerChrysler was fined 72 million euros by the European Commission for refusing to sell cars to Germans who shopped abroad in search of lower prices.

The company said today its U.S. subsidiaries ``intend to defend themselves vigorously.``

U.S. shares of DaimlerChrysler fell $2.84, almost 6 percent, to $44.71 in midday trading.

Anecdotal input on coming real estate debacle:

“I can attest from the real estate front that things are looking very soft in Fairfield County, Connecticut USA.....there are more for sale and for lease signs in Stamford than since the early 1990`s (when office space went for less than $100/square foot). Luxury residential real estate is generally offered without the bid. In fact today I saw a phrase in a residential real estate section I hadn`t seen in ten years......"just reduced."

www.lemetropolecafe.com

#1449 von ThaiGuru 20.07.02 01:00:30 Beitrag Nr.: 6.931.641 6931641
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
New problems surfacing for the Gold Dealer`s Cartel

The gold dealer`s cartel is in for trouble now for a new reason. That is because their stock prices of the parent financial holding corporation are declining significantly and that will raise credit concerns.

Central banks historically are no different from other market participants when as today push has become shove in the equities markets. Central banks will soon perceive the credit risk of an asset lease that allows you to sell the asset gold without collateralizing the sold asset.

Can you imagine such a deal for individuals? Well, that is what`s happening but but the individuals in the gold lease deals are favored financial bank holding companies that are by their nature in bed, so to say, with central banks. So much for ethical standards and a level playing field?

Can you imagine leasing a car, plane or boat and being able to sell it and use the money anyway you please with no guaranteed payback collateral arrangement on the vehicle? That would send new vehicle sales through the roof and collapse the used vehicle market.

It is the now fledgling (but growing) perception of credit risk due to the failing stock price of the international financial holding companies that will stop the central banks from a constant flow of gold leasing to these private entities, the gold dealer`s cartel.

Without constantly increasing gold leases the gold dealer`s cartel will not be able to storm the gold market late Fridays and from behind trees with gold for sale. The gold derivative and gold lease shorts are in deep trouble because the gold market is, I believe, in a very long term bull phase of a multi year nature.

This is an engine that cannot be stopped, but as we have seen, as long as central banks continue to enrich their friends at the gold dealers cartel it can be slowed from time to time.

The next level to watch is the 329.94 where the cartel will rise again. Now support is 317.36 with a price object on this phase of the bull market now at 370.65.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

#1450 von ThaiGuru 20.07.02 01:07:07 Beitrag Nr.: 6.931.668 6931668
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
The collapse of the dollar is being forestalled by massive intervention by foreign central banks buying dollar credits in a massive effort to underpin the foreign countries` export capacity to the United States.

Yesterday the "Financial Times" reported that Asian countries alone in June had purchased 50 billion dollars, and July must be far worse. If you multiply 50 times twelve, you get 600 billion dollars, and this is just one area of the world.

There are ten trillion dollars of instantly convertible funds in the United States including credit, and paper currency which together amount to 6 trillion, and foreign ownership in bonds, stock, deposits, etc. as of March of this year, which are called hot money that amount to 5.7 trillion as of Jan., 2001. By deleting duplications you get ten trillion. Therefore, you have a ten trillion dollar exposure, a 3.6 plus net deficit position if you ignore the funds the Treasury is suspiciously finding whenever the trade account deteriorates more, and an nearly unlimited shorting capacity in dollars.

It is impossible for the foreign central banks to mop up a tidal wave of these dollar credits and securities being converted to foreign credits without experiencing a terrific inflation, and if they sterilize the intervention they nullify the long-term result--more dollar depreciation.

In other words, we can see the panic in the purchase by foreign central banks of dollars and the panic is now stupendous even though the dollar has not crashed to smithereens on the markets yet.

CF

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Dank an Thai-Guru.

Denkt an die Silberminen wie Coeur, Hecla
und vor allen Dingen Macmin den kleinen Explorer.

[manfred1_I]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Gold Cartel has some very serious problems. The U.S. stock market worked off its oversold condition and now is headed for new low ground. The DOW fell 230 to 8506, while the NASDOG (1280, down 48) was clobbered all day long.
It struck me that the only DOW stock to close higher was J.P. Morgan Chase ($25.02, up 6 cents). The economic news was so bad the PPT must have figured it would do no good to support the Dow, so they just propped up Morgan. Citigroup was hit, closing at $32.30, down $1.06. The banking index closed 23 lower.

Washington, Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The pace of expansion in U.S. manufacturing slowed more than expected in July, an industry survey showed.

The Institute for Supply Management`s factory index fell to 50.5 last month from 56.2 the previous month. A level greater than 50 signals growth.

Slower consumer demand and a sluggish stock market are raising concerns that the economy`s rebound may be faltering. That may make companies reluctant to place orders and invest more in new equipment, economists said….

Construction spending unexpectedly fell in June, the second monthly decline, as work decreased on housing, offices, schools and highways. The 2.2 percent drop to $820.8 billion at an annual rate followed a 2 percent decline in May that was steeper than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[manfred1_I]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The U.S. stock market looks like a disaster waiting to happen. The economic news stinks:

U.S. Economy: Fed Survey Finds Slowing `in Recent Weeks`
By Brendan Murray, Craig Torres and Simon Kennedy

Washington, Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy slowed in the past six weeks, limited by ``sluggish`` factory production and little or no gains in employment, the Federal Reserve said.

While increases in auto and home sales supported the recovery, manufacturers are less optimistic than they were earlier this year and companies aren`t adding workers, the Fed said in its latest regional economic report card, known as the beige book.

The report ``mirrors a lot of the themes we have seen in the economic news lately that growth is uneven,`` said James Glassman, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. in New York.

The Fed`s regional economic report card suggests the central bank may keep its target for overnight lending between banks at a 41-year low until growth accelerates. The Fed`s policy-setting Open Market Committee meets Sept. 24 to decide whether to change the benchmark U.S. interest rate from 1.75 percent.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies on the economy tomorrow with the House Budget Committee. Two Fed policy makers -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Michael Moskow and Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Cathy Minehan -- in separate speeches Monday said the recovery will be ``bumpy.``

Most of the Fed people have suggested they are going to be pretty patient, and I assume Mr. Greenspan`s comments tomorrow will be the same,`` Glassman said.

The beige book was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using information gathered after the third week in July and before Sept. 3. The report -- a collection of anecdotes reported to the regional Fed banks from local businesses -- gives central bankers an idea of economic developments beyond what statistics show…..

The Fed`s comments run counter to Labor Department statistics showing the unemployment rate fell to a five-month low of 5.7 percent in August from 5.9 percent in July. Companies and the government added workers for a fourth month.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[granitbiss]

Artikel war doch schon im Nebenthraed

[manfred1_I]

Wenn ich mir das Schauspiel heute
in Asien so anschaue. Börsen fester, Gold runter.


CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The Working Group on Financial Markets was working overtime today. Every major stock market index was lower in the morning until they came in for their predictable Dow rescue. Whenever JP Morgan is in real trouble (see news below), the PPT supports the Dow futures to bring in share buying for Morgan. I have reported on this happening for two months. When they support the Dow futures, arbitrageurs buy the Dow stocks (Morgan is one) and sell Dow futures (which have become expensive relative to the underlying Dow stocks). Even with this Dow buying, Morgan still closed at $21.71, down 33 cents. The PPT is only delaying the inevitable. Morgan is in deep trouble and ought to be hit with a credit downgrade at any time.

Meanwhile, the DOG is headed for oblivion. Invest for the long-term, the long-term graveyard that is. The NASDOG closed at 1276, down 15, with the bellwether SOX Index closing in 4-year low ground at 269.22, down 11.30.

Lawrence Lindsey, economic advisor to the President, said today that a war with Iraq might cost $200 billion. President Bush was in Iowa calling for Federal spending discipline?????? Who and what gets left out?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[manfred1_I]

Vielleicht sehen einige nach dem Lesen des Artikels
etwas klarer:

Die Geschäfte folgen einem simplen Schema:

Institute borgen Gold von den Zentralbanken zu einem äußerst niedrigen Zins. Der Vorteil für die staatlichen Stellen: Aus den weitgehend nutzlosen Goldbergen wird zumindest ein kleiner Gewinn gezogen. Die Banken verkaufen die geliehenen Barren. Mit den Erlösen erwerben sie Wertpapiere, deren Renditen den Leihzins weit übertreffen. Ein ebenso lukratives wie riskantes Geschäft - und alles auf Pump.
Bricht der Preis zu sehr nach oben aus, müssten Deutsche Bank, Goldman, Chase und Co. bluten: Dann würde der Leihzins mit in die Höhe schießen. Und, schlimmer noch, die Rückkäufe am Markt wären nahezu unbezahlbar. Denn die Zentralbanken verlangen irgendwann das von ihnen geborgte Gold wieder. Schon jetzt ist der "Gold carry trade" aus dem Ruder gelaufen. Experten schätzen, dass die Geschäftsbanken den Zentralbanken bis zu 7000 Tonnen schulden. "Zu viel, um jemals zurückbezahlt zu werden", warnen die Experten von Salomon Smith Barney, einer Bank der Citigroup.
Deshalb, folgert Howe, "haben Goldman, Chase und die Deutsche Bank in den vergangenen zwei Jahren regelmäßig jede sich abzeichnende Goldrallye an der New Yorker Warenbörse Comex durch Massenverkäufe abgewürgt".

[granitbiss]

Hallo Manni

ich habe nur gesehen, dass die meisten Goldaktien am Freitag niedriger notierten.

[Gringo1]

Granit.iss,

Du bist ganz ein Schlauer und noch dazu ein aufmerksamer Beobachter, bravo, weiter so !

Aus Dir wird noch was ...

Wie gehts eigentlich Deiner Topempfehlung, dem Billigküchen-Anbieter ?
Wobei ich sagen muß, daß eine ordentliche Küche unter 10.000€ nicht zu haben ist.

[Gringo1]

Hoppla,

lebt unser Billigküchen-Onkel eigentlich noch ?

[granitbiss]

@ Gringo

Dein Sarkasmus greift nicht, da völlig ohne Hintergrund.

Aber ich helfe Dir trotzdem :

Es war keine "Empfehlung" sondern man sollte sich Gedanken machen, ob diese Firma in der Zukunft besser verdienen kann.

Der Aktie gehts gut.
Sie ist im Gegensatz zu DAX,SMAX und sonstwas konstant geblieben, allerdings auch fast umsatzlos.

Alno stellt hochwertigste (und teure ) Küchen her.
(Sie hat aber Tochtergesellschaften - ahnst Du nun was ?? )

Bei Dir fällt auf, dass Du Dich offensichtlich nicht informierst.

Aber das lernst Du vielleicht auch noch.

Schönen Tag.

[Gringo1]

[manfred1_I]

Oje, Oje JPM Chase

Auszüge aus der FTD vom 26.9.2002 www.ftd.de/us-finanzmarkt
US-Finanzmarkt: Alles muss raus!
Von Kerstin Friemel, New York

Schwere Managementfehler


Die Bilanzreformen, die jüngst durchgesetzt wurden, um das Anlegervertrauen wieder herzustellen, drücken die ausgewiesenen Gewinne - und damit die Aktienkurse. Morgan Stanley enttäuschte vergangene Woche mit einem Ergebniseinbruch um 17 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal. JP Morgan Chase hatte die Wall Street kurz zuvor mit einer Gewinnwarnung geschockt. Lehman Brothers Holding, die Muttergesellschaft der gleichnamigen Investmentbank, präsentierte am Dienstag ein miserables Quartalsergebnis, allein Goldman Sachs konnte seinen Gewinn steigern.


Die Aktien der Finanzhäuser galten noch bis Mai als sichere Anlage. Nach dem Platzen der Internetblase hatten die Banken die Technologiebranche als führenden Sektor im Börsenindex S&P 500 abgelöst. Ende Juni machten die Geldinstitute 20 Prozent des Index aus, der IT-Sektor folgte mit 14 Prozent. Dann wurden Verquickungen vieler Banken in den Skandal um den Energiehändler Enron bekannt. Frustrierte Privatanleger verkauften ihre Aktien.


Anders die institutionellen Anleger. Die in der Presse veröffentlichten Geschäftspraktiken waren an der Wall Street gang und gäbe. Jeder wusste davon, auch die Großinvestoren. Ihr Glaube an die Kompetenz der Banker war nicht wirklich erschüttert. Nun könnten sich auch Pensionskassen und Fondsgesellschaften zurückziehen. Die jüngsten Schreckensnachrichten aus den Großbanken zeigen, dass dem Management grobe Fehler unterlaufen sind, von denen kein Investor etwas ahnte. Sollten die institutionellen Anleger ihr Vertrauen in die Banken verlieren, könnte das einen weiteren Absturz des Aktienmarktes auslösen.



Hohe Wertberichtigungen


Aufmerksam wurden die Wall-Street-Experten erstmals, als US-Finanzhäuser im großen Stil Geld in der Argentinien-Krise verloren. Die jüngste Gewinnwarnung von JP Morgan Chase sorgte erneut für Unruhe. Die zweitgrößte Bank der Welt hat sich bei der Höhe der möglichen Kreditausfälle deutlich verkalkuliert. Während der Interneteuphorie hatte die Bank mit vollen Händen Darlehen an Telekom- und Kabelunternehmen vergeben. Finanzchefin Dina Dublon beziffert das Gesamtengagement ihrer Bank in diesem Sektor mit 9 Mrd. $.


Mit der Prüfung der Kreditwürdigkeit nahm man es dabei offenbar nicht so genau. Viele Telekomkonzerne sind nun pleite, JP Morgan Chase muss die Darlehen abschreiben. Nach Angaben der Bank liegen die Wertberichtigungen allein für das dritte Quartal bei 1,4 Mrd. $.


"Es ist wesentlich schlimmer, als irgendjemand erwartet hat", sagt Jim Mitchell, Analyst bei Putnam Lovell. Die Banken dealten wie im Rausch. "Sie sind für die Höhe ihrer Bilanz zu viele Risiken eingegangen. Dafür zahlen sie jetzt", kritisiert Michael Rosinus, Partner bei der Tiedemann Investment Group. Die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s (S&P) stufte die Kreditwürdigkeit der Bank noch am Tag der Gewinnwarnung herunter. "Wir glauben nicht, dass das Schlimmste für das Unternehmen vorbei ist", sagt S&P-Analystin Tanya Azarchs.


Manche prophezeien einen Wechsel an der Spitze von JP Morgan Chase: "In sechs Monaten wird William Harrison draußen sein", sagt Richard Bove, Analyst bei Hoefer & Arnett. Diane Glossman, Finanzanalystin bei UBS Warburg, spekuliert, das Institut könnte zum Übernahmekandidaten werden. Um dieses Szenario abzuwenden, muss JP Morgan Chase das Fiasko bei den Kreditausfällen unter Firmenkunden zügig regeln. Daneben gilt es, eine ähnliche Schlappe im Geschäft mit Privatkundenkrediten zu verhindern. Noch läuft die Sparte gut, doch die Probleme sind absehbar. Die bislang so konsumfreudigen US-Verbraucher drosseln ihre Ausgaben, ein Signal, dass sie knapp bei Kasse sind und ihre Zahlungsmoral sinken könnte.


Überdies droht JP Morgans Verquickung in den Enron-Skandal rund 1 Mrd. $ teurer zu werden als erwartet. Einige Versicherungen, die Bürgschaften für vermeintliche Gaslieferungen von Enron an die Bank übernommen hatten, weigern sich, für die Schäden aufzukommen. Ihr Argument: Die Transaktionen waren zumeist getarnte Darlehen der Bank an Enron - und die seien von den Policen nicht gedeckt. Der Fall wird im Dezember vor Gericht landen.



Steigender Goldpreis bedroht Kurse


Weitere Kursrückschläge drohen, wenn der Goldpreis weiter steigt. Etliche Finanzhäuser - darunter UBS, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, und auch JP Morgan Chase - engagieren sich seit Jahren in riskanten Termingeschäften: Sie borgen sich Gold von Zentralbanken zu einem äußerst niedrigen Zins - meist unter zwei Prozent - und verkaufen das geliehene Edelmetall sofort am Markt weiter. Die Erlöse legen sie in Wertpapieren an, deren Renditen den Leihzins weit übertreffen. Mit Gold decken sich die Finanzhäuser erst wieder ein, wenn sie es an die Zentralbanken zurückgeben müssen.


Was früher glänzende Gewinne garantierte, könnte heute angesichts des steigenden Goldpreises zum Fiasko werden - vor allem für JP Morgan Chase. Für das Institut wird es in Zukunft schwierig, Gold von Zentralbanken zu borgen und fällige Kontrakte umzuschichten. Denn die Notenbanker machen laut Branchenexperten nur Geschäfte mit Banken, deren Kreditwürdigkeit mit "AA" bewertet wird. Nach den jüngsten Abstufungen der Rating-Agenturen gehört JP Morgan nicht mehr zu diesem elitären Kreis. Zwei langjährige Chefs des Goldhandels, Dinsa Mehta und Don Eckert, haben kürzlich das Finanzhaus verlassen.


Robert Maltbie, Chef des Internet-Informationsdienstes Stockjock.com, hält JP Morgan Chase für "eine Zeitbombe". Viele Geschäfte der Banken spiegelten sich noch immer nicht in deren Bilanzen. Wenn eine Bank wie JP Morgan Chase ihre finanziellen Verpflichtungen nicht mehr erfüllen könnte, so Maltbie, drohte den Börsen der GAU. "Das könnte die Finanzmärkte bis ins Mark erschüttern."



© 2002 Financial Times Deutschland

[granitbiss]

Mannie

seitenlange kopierte Postings helfen nichts--
Noch nicht begriffen ??????????????

[ThaiGuru]

@Granitbisschen

Dauernde Querulanten Postings helfen noch weniger--
Noch nicht begriffen ??????????????

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[manfred1_I]

Spitzt sich die Sache in den nächsten 2 Wochen zu??

http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2002/foth020927.htm

Interessant, interessant.

[granitbiss]

@Thaichen

Querunlanten sind die User, die Deine Meinung nicht teilen.
Wie einfach gestrickt ?!

[manfred1_I]

an dem kommenden Desaster kann auch granibiss
leider nichts mehr ändern.


ALL HANDS ON DECK!

It sure appears that the MIDAS commentary of the last few years is coming to pass.

The Gold Cartel is about to become The Lead Cartel. Yes indeedie, Murphy’s Law has struck them with the vengeance it is so well known for. Rarely have I seen so much collective negative financial market news to surface over a 24-hour period.

Gold was stopped cold by the desperado cabal today as it surged higher while the DOW tanked, but a $1, $5, or $10 move in gold on any given day at this point will prove to be meaningless compared to what awaits us. The financial markets are near a state of collapse, as advertised by Café contributors for a very long time.

There is no need to rehash the reasons why ad nauseam, however, but, it is important to point to Gold Cartel related activity. J.P. Morgan Chase continues to do that disappearing share price act I keep referring to. It was clobbered today, closing at $18.34, down 93 cents. As you know, $20 is thought to be the critical level at which financial tresses would begin to kick in and affect their ability to conduct business as they have been accustomed to. They MUST contract their derivatives exposure, but who is going to take the other side of their $26.2 trillion dollar derivatives positions? MORGAN HAS BIG PROBLEMS!!!

Bill,

Spoke with a gold broker today and he stated that he`d heard that the stock time bomb at JPM was set at 18.50. Let`s see. John)

Jim Sinclair’s Morgan destruction number is $18.54.

What are they going to do with their $45 billion in gold derivatives? Morgan says they are for clients. But, even if that is the case, these derivatives all have counterparty issues. How comfortable can Morgan’s clients be with Morgan itself?

Barrick Gold is one of those major counterparties. Now Barrick’s stock is disappearing too. It closed today at $15.09, down 81 cents. What a dog that one is. Last November, with gold at $273, Barrick traded $14. Gold has rallied $46 since then, but Barrick has gone nowhere. WHY? Midas and GATA have been on Barrick’s case for more than 3 years. As a result, we have saved our followers the ignominy of owning Barrick. Many Café members switched out of Barrick into other gold companies whose share prices have doubled or tripled already. Thank you very much.

One has to wonder if kissing cousins Morgan and Barrick are not at each other’s throats. Two people, whom I have a great deal of respect for, listened to Barrick’s conference call yesterday and both think that Barrick might be attempting to cover up a derivatives problem.

We shall see. I can’t help but keep in mind that Enron and Morgan were best of buddies at one time. Barrick dragged around Dinsa Mehta, JPM`s chief gold dealer and overall derivatives specialist, at some of their presentations. Mehta spoke at a gold conference in Australia not too long ago. The Congressional Committee investigating Enron has subpoenaed Mehta`s correspondence in various matters. Mehta was relieved of his duties by JPM this past April.

As such, let us zero in a bit on Barrick as they relate to Morgan, since we have jumped all over both of them for so many years.

Barrick reported an unrealized $251,000,000 loss on their hedge book at $314 gold in their second quarter report. They also reported that 3/4 of their projects had increased costs which makes no sense whatsoever. That is not the way it works in mining unless there is some major increase across the board on a major mining expense, like labor, which there isn`t. All those projects did not just change their economic structure all at once. It simply does not work that way. It is totally illogical.

Yesterday, Barrick reported production on one project would not even be what was expected in their last report. Barrick has maintained a reputation as having great mining operations. Suddenly, it is all going bad and FAST. COINCIDENTALLY, Morgan is falling apart at the EXACT SAME TIME.

Dicky The Dunce could even connect these dots. It would appear that all the GATA camp has written and warned of IS HAPPENING. Barrick’s $251,000,000 loss on the hedge book at $314 it is certain to be a $Billion in the not to far future.

Gold companies still short gold are totally insane; that includes Newmont and Placer Doom. Who knows what is going on out there in dangerous derivatives land?

I can offer you this. On CNBC today, at least two people spoke up about a "potential" financial market disaster brewing. Another spoke of a couple of banks going down before the financial market debacle ends. For what it is worth, I know for a fact that the GATA ARMY’s rantings over Morgan and their derivatives structure is spreading at the highest levels around the world.

Most gold shares rallied LATE today. But, not Barrick.

Same chant from me: GO ARMY BEAT MORGAN! Show them as much mercy as they have shown all those people that are dying in sub-Saharan Africa, the result of Morgan`s inhumane and unlawful gold dealings.

Since the inception of GATA, we have claimed that there was nowhere near the gold in central banks as they claimed. Over and over we have stated that the gold loans/swaps are more likely 14,000 to 15,000 tonnes and not the 4600+ tonnes as reported by bullion dealer apologist GFMS and the World Gold Council.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[granitbiss]

manni

1) warum "leider"

2) was wollte ich denn ändern, von dem ic hwieder nichts weis ??

3) Das Desaster kommt doch schon seit Jahren

[manfred1_I]

Heute dürften gewisse Kreise wieder alle
Hände voll zu tun haben.
Ich meine mit Schreiben von Puts auf Gold.

Die Aktienmärkte sind anscheinend immer noch
nicht tief genug.
Nebenbei hat Argentinien die Shorter im Visier.

[granitbiss]

hallo mannie

Wie gut Du über die Handlungen "gewisser Kreise" immer bestens informiert bist !!!!

Bald bewundere ich Dich

Schönen Grüß

[manfred1_I]

PPT dürfte gestern doch den Kurs von JPM stark
noch oben gehievt haben.
Schliessen die doch tatsächlich im Plus, bei dem
weltweiten Börsenumfeld.

Vorher sah es auch hier dramatisch aus.

Aber was kann man mit gedrucktem Geld nicht alles
machen.

[manfred1_I]

Reuters Market News

J.P. Morgan set to fire 4,000 bankers -- report

Friday October 4, 7:54 pm ET

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) -

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM - News), the second-largest U.S. banking company, is set to fire 4,000 of its 20,000 investment bankers later this month, according to a published report.

The cuts will be made across the bank including its divisions handling mergers and acquisitions and equity and debt underwriting, a Bloomberg News article said on Friday.

A J.P. Morgan spokeswoman declined to comment on the report. The company indicated last month, however, that it might have to cut jobs, as it wrestles with steep loan defaults by cable and telecommunications firms as well as wrong trading bets.

Last month, J.P. Morgan warned that its third-quarter earnings would be well below their second-quarter level due to weak trading results and bad loans to telecommunications and cable firms.

J.P. Morgan, along with other investment banks, has been stung by the slack economy and weak markets, after a boom in initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions fueled bank expansion during the late 1990s.

In addition, J.P. Morgan has been tarred by financings it set up for bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp. (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News),as well as losses in Argentina.

Its shares fell $1.08, or more than 6 percent, to close at $16.54 in Friday trading on the New York Stock Exchange, its lowest level since 1995. Its shares are off 54 percent this year.

[manfred1_I]

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq202.pdf

Z.B. Tabelle 9 anschauen.

Der Gürtel zieht sich immer enger.

[manfred1_I]

Wenn man die Sache mal runtergeladen hat und rein-
geschaut hat, dann kann man etwas klarer sehen.

Sind die denn von allen guten Geistern verlassen???

[manfred1_I]

A Potential Pothole on Rally Road

By Aaron L. Task
Senior Writer
10/11/2002 03:00 PM EDT

The stock market rallied big Thursday and was soaring again midday Friday. A continuation of the technical factors that contributed to Thursday`s gains, along with a Lehman Brothers upgrade of IBM and relief that General Electric`s results weren`t worse were fueling big gains for major averages Friday afternoon. Everything may suddenly appear "okey-dokey" but a large number of market participants remain worried about the potential for some upheaval in the financial system. "I will venture there is an outside chance that in the very near future, during a momentous market upheaval, a major financial participant will face complete and instant annihilation," Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics in Los Angeles commented recently. For some time now, J.P. Morgan has been the name most often cited as a potential trouble spot. In an interview Thursday, Hamzei said J.P. Morgan is on his short list of financial firms about whose "annihilation" he is concerned. Admittedly, that`s a dramatic description for what others contend may be a forced sale or, at the very least, more pain for J.P. Morgan`s stock and bondholders. Specifically, concerns remain about the bank`s exposure to derivatives, financial instruments that derive their value from other securities and are designed to offset risk -- although history suggests they often have the opposite effect. As reported previously, J.P. Morgan is far and away the largest dealer of derivatives -- involved in $25.9 trillion, or 51%, of the $50.8 trillion notional value of contracts involving U.S. commercial banks and trust companies at the end of the second quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Given its dominance, J.P. Morgan is an obvious bogeyman for those concerned about derivatives in general. A midweek downgrade by Moody`s put those concerns back on the front burner.

A J.P. Morgan spokesman said the bank doesn`t comment on rating actions. But in a conference call after its profit warning last month, Dina Dublon, J.P. Morgan`s head of finance, said a Standard & Poor`s downgrade at the time would have but a "small impact" on J.P. Morgan`s derivatives business. In cutting $42 billion of J.P. Morgan`s long-term debt to A-1 from Aa3 and its bank subsidiary debt to Aa3 from Aa2, Moody`s ratings are now in line with S&P`s.

A Potential Pothole on Rally Road

The spokesman said he was not aware of any customers seeking alternatives to J.P. Morgan`s derivatives desk, or leaving altogether, as has been reported elsewhere. Indeed, with assets of $741 billion and shareholder equity exceeding $40 billion at the end of the second quarter, there appears to be no imminent threat to the firm`s financial wherewithal. Moody`s said Wednesday that J.P. Morgan`s liquidity "remains strong," and its risk-weighted capital ratios are good. After declining over 56% year to date previously, J.P. Morgan`s shares rose 3.2% Thursday and were up another 7.7% Friday afternoon.

Still, many on Wall Street fret that time, and the markets, are not on J.P. Morgan`s side. Stressed OutHamzei, who runs a quantitative analytics firm, is mainly focused on issues such as on-balance volume. That measure of whether a stock is under accumulation or distribution shows "money has exited [J.P. Morgan`s] stock at a horrendous rate," he said. But he also cited the "extreme levels at which the global debt and equity securities and derivatives are currently trading," which have been and presumably continue to put stress on J.P. Morgan`s proprietary trading and derivatives portfolios. Prior to Thursday`s advance, yields on investment-grade corporate bonds were at their widest spread to Treasuries in a decade, while the S&P Speculative Grade Index, which mirrors the trend in spreads between high-yield bonds and Treasuries, hit an all-time high of 1573.9 on Thursday. S&P`s Investment Grade Credit Index also hit a record high on Thursday. Corporate default rates are up markedly this year and Fitch Investors reported 40% of junk bonds issued from 1997 to 1999 are now in default. (RealMoneyPro.com`s Brian Reynolds observed that corporate spreads were "narrowing significantly" Friday morning, which would be welcome news for the corporate bond market and J.P. Morgan in particular if it continues.

[manfred1_I]

See http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/346.



Greenspan’s statement supports GATA’s theory. For the most part, GATA does not believe that an ESF-led scheme to manipulate gold prices involves directly selling significant portions of U.S. gold. Rather, the ESF was used to set up the swap lines with foreign central banks.

Therefore, when the Fed Chairman remarks that “some foreign central banks…lease gold in response to price increases”, it is entirely possible that the ESF has outstanding gold swaps with those nations. So while another country’s gold is being leased in response to price increases, it could be at the behest of the U.S. After all, how has Alan Greenspan “observed (a) willingness of some foreign central banks to lease gold in response to price increases?” His awareness of their leasing practices would be guaranteed if the ESF and/or Federal Reserve were essentially directing such operations.



Bolstering GATA`s claim that gold swaps have jeopardized the ownership of a substantial portion of the U.S. reserve is an accounting change made in September 2000. The U.S. Mint reclassified approximately 1700 tonnes of gold at West Point, New York to "Custodial Gold Bullion" from "Gold Bullion Reserve.”

[manfred1_I]

Wenn das wahr sein sollte??

http://www.forbes.com/technology/newswire/2002/11/07/rtr7873…

J.P. Morgan denies gold loss rumors, stock down

Reuters, 11.07.02, 10:12 AM ET

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Inc. (nyse: JPM - news - people) said on Thursday that rumors it had suffered large losses on gold trades were "false and irresponsible," as the rumors had damaged its stock price.

J.P. Morgan shares, a component of the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average, dropped to a low of $20.55 on Thursday before recovering somewhat to trade down 4.6 percent, or $1.01 a share, at $21.05.


The stock fell on rumors arising in Europe that the No. 2 U.S. banking company had lost between $17 billion and $70 billion on gold trades.

A spokesman denied the rumors and analysts also discounted them.
"It`s (circulated) at least three or four times this year, and it`s always out of Europe," UBS Warburg analyst Diane Glossman said of the rumor. "They should please come up with something more creative next time than recycling old rumors."

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service

[manfred1_I]

On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), the nation`s second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives.

Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.

Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said.

[manfred1_I]

New York (vwd) - Die J.P. Morgan & Co Inc, New York, hat Gerüchte vom Donnerstag zurückgewiesen, sie habe bei Geschäften am Goldterminmarkt Verluste von mehreren Mrd USD erlitten. Die Gerüchte seien falsch, teilte ein Sprecher des Investmenthauses am Donnerstag mit.

vwd/DJ/7.11.2002/sam/jhe

7. November 2002, 16:56

[YoyoStock]

..an jedem Gerücht ist etwas wahres dran
Goldpreis steigt i.M. ...wird doch nicht JPM umfallen?

[manfred1_I]

SEARCH RESULTS - STORY
The rumour that won`t die
Investors keep worrying about J.P. Morgan`s gold hedging exposure

Steve Maich
Financial Post


Friday, November 08, 2002

Suzanne Plunkett, The Associated Press
Wall Street investment bank J.P. Morgan headquarters in New York. J.P. Morgan has denied repeated allegations that a rising gold price will trigger losses in its huge position in gold derivatives.

ADVERTISEMENT


The rumour that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is facing massive losses on gold derivative exposure is the market conspiracy theory that will not die.

J.P. Morgan insisted yet again yesterday that its derivative exposure remains minimal, calling the latest rumours "false and irresponsible." But that didn`t stop investors from driving the shares (JPM/NYSE) down 6.6% yesterday.

Despite the denials, thousands of investors and analysts suspect J.P. Morgan has more on the line than it`s letting on. Just as they did when Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. slipped last summer on concerns about their extensive hedging strategies, investors are complaining about a lack of transparency in derivatives trading, and a general distrust of complex financial structures.

One former brokerage credit officer, now working as an independent analyst, said the market has very little faith in assurances about risk exposure when they aren`t backed up by hard data.

"To see what some of these companies have as real exposure and then hear their public statements, it just boggles the mind sometimes," he said. "You just don`t know, and that`s the point."

J.P. Morgan became heavily involved in forward gold contracts in the 1990s when the commodity price was in a slow decline. Market watchers at the time said gold was going nowhere in the new global economic environment, and the derivatives market allowed banks like J.P. Morgan to extract profits from a marooned asset class.

As far as most analysts are concerned, J.P. Morgan`s massive derivatives program amounted to a short position on the price of gold. And with gold prices up 17.5% in the past year, speculation is swirling that the bank is now taking a serious pounding.

How big the losses are, is a matter of endless debate.

David Hendler, a bond analyst at Creditsights Inc., an independent research firm in New York, discussed the gold question in a Sept. 23 report to clients. He concluded that there is not enough public information released by the bank to precisely determine the risks, but there are a few clues that suggest reasons for concern.

First and foremost is J.P. Morgan`s extensive participation in the derivatives market, he said. In all, the bank holds about US$26-trillion in futures and options contracts, or roughly 50% of the overall market. That`s more than twice the size of the entire annual U.S. gross domestic product.

J.P. Morgan has reduced its gold contracts over the past year, but it is still relatively overexposed compared to other major banks, Mr. Hendler said. At the end of the second quarter Morgan`s gold contracts were worth US$45-billion on a notional basis. Citigroup, the largest financial services company with about 50% more total assets than J.P. Morgan, has just US$12-billion in gold derivatives.

Notional value isn`t a true reflection of the bank`s risk, because it refers to the potential maximum value of a contract. But even a writeoff of 5% of its total gold contract would represent a loss in excess of US$2-billion, greater than the bank`s total net income in 2001.

Like all banks, J.P. Morgan has stress-tested its portfolio and insists that even in its worst-case "value at risk" scenario, its gold contracts would cut just US1¢ per share from its 2003 earnings. But, like all banks, it refuses to go into the specifics of trading strategies, or how they arrive at their risk models, as these are proprietary secrets.

If the denials are starting to ring hollow, it`s because J.P. Morgan has had to issue so many of them in recent months.

The bank is trying to recover US$965-million in losses from doomed derivatives transactions with Enron Corp. The insurance companies involved maintain the deals were tantamount to fraud and they`ve refused to pay. The bank also faces a variety of lawsuits arising from its role as financier to Enron and WorldCom Inc. The bank has denied all allegations of wrongdoing, and so far hasn`t taken a provision for the potential losses, insisting that they`ll be vindicated.

Back in July, Kathy Shanley, an analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent bond research firm, said "there is no way to responsibly quantify the ultimate financial impact of the current investigations."

J.P. Morgan is also at the centre of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into allegations that the bank forced clients to buy more shares of bank-led IPOs in the after market to ensure new issues surged in their first few days of trading. Again, executives have denied the charges, but investors are well aware that Credit Suisse First Boston paid US$100-million last year to settle similar charges.

For a bank that saw third-quarter profits plunge 91% thanks to a slew of credit writeoffs, all the outstanding questions are creating an unappealing picture.

In an environment like this, whispers about multi-billion dollar derivatives losses are finding fertile ground among nervous shareholders.

[e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

By Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
11p CT Tuesday, November 19, 2002

The following remarks by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sound like "cover your butt" talk.

Greenspan Says Central Banks
Must Watch Derivatives

By Michael McKee



WASHINGTON, Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) --
Governments must be careful not to over-
regulate financial derivatives and central
banks should not give the impression they
will always bail out institutions if those
instruments fail, Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said."


* * *

The whole report on Greenspan`s speech is linked below.

Something is up and this wimp knows it. This is exactly what the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the GATA Army, and Doug Noland of http://www.PrudentBear.com have sounded the alarm about for years.

My guess is that the gold/interest rate derivative neutron bomb is slowly going off. Now that it is too late to do anything about it, Sir Blowhard is speaking out, after blocking any sort of regulation of derivatives while he supposedly was minding the store.

Remember that a GATA delegation consisting of Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell, and myself met with with House Speaker Dennis Hastert at the U.S. Capitol on May 10, 2000, and warned him of a looming derivatives crisis. We gave him a copy of our Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report, which we also gave to U.S. Rep. Spencer Bachus, chairman of the House Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, which has supervision of gold and silver issues. Bachus brought seven staff members to that meeting.

GATA then met with the Dr. John Sylvia, the chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee.

The next day I delivered a copy of the Gold Derivative Banking Crisis report to the office of every House and Senate banking committee member.

The retiring chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Phil Gramm of Texas, is a hack. He refused to acknowledge what GATA had to say. His wife, Wendy, a former chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, was on the Board of Directors of Enron. I could go on and on about our "behind-the-curve" Congress. When it comes to taking on the big-money crowd, they don`t want to hear about it.

No one is more calculating than Sir Blowhard, down to his use of adjectives. This story is no fluke. We are close to the day when all heck breaks lose. Greenspan is close to his day of reckoning.


Hoch explosiv. Bildet euch Eure Meinung.

[granitbiss]

Mannie

hattest Du doch schon gepostet

[manfred1_I]

Immer wieder Dementis von JPM

"Warum bei diesen Dementis die Alarmglocken läuten sollten", so die National Post, "ist alleine deshalb so, weil J.P. Morgan so viele Dementis herausgebracht hat."

Stimmt. Als letztes Jahr die Enron-Krise ausgebrochen war, hat J.P. Morgan die Auswirkungen auf das eigene Geschäft – wegen der abzuschreibenden Kredite – niedrig geredet. Der Vorstandsvorsitzende von J.P. Morgan, William Harrison, bestand darauf, dass Enron kein großes Risiko für sein Haus darstelle. Nichts hätte weiter von der Wahrheit entfernt sein können. Das Enron-Debakel war nicht nur für die Bilanzen von J.P. Morgan schlecht, sondern auch für den Ruf des Bankhauses. Denn J.P. Morgan verneinte zunächst auch, dass die Dividende gekürzt würde – dann später wurde die Möglichkeit einer Dividendenkürzung eingeräumt. Und jetzt dementiert J.P. Morgan wieder etwas – nämlich Gerüchte, dass im Geschäft mit Gold-Derivativen hohe Verluste angefallen seien.

Am 6. November machten diese Gerüchte die Runde, und die Aktie von J.P. Morgan fiel um 6 %. An diesem Tag ließ J.P. Morgan mitteilen, dass diese Gerüchte "falsch und unverantwortlich" seien.

Diese Gerüchte sind nicht neu, aber sie sind wieder neu aufgekommen. Angesichts der Fehlentwicklungen und Dementis bei J.P. Morgan wäre es nicht überraschend, wenn diese Gerüchte der Wahrheit entsprechen würden.

Theoretisch sind Banken wie J.P. Morgan mit Derivaten so positioniert, dass sie per saldo "marktneutral" sind oder nur ein geringes Risiko eingehen. Aber Märkte sind Märkte und Menschen sind Menschen, und große spekulative Positionen kommen manchmal auch bei Finanzinstituten vor.

"Wenn man den Analysten glauben kann", so die National Post, "dann hat sich J.P. Morgan beim Gold mit Derivaten auf fallende Kurse festgelegt." Deshalb kommen von Zeit zu Zeit Gerüchte über hohe Verluste bei J.P. Morgan auf, seit der Goldpreis wieder steigt. Aber vergessen Sie nicht – das sind nur "falsche und unverantwortliche" Gerüchte. J.P. Morgan hat öffentlich versichert, dass die eigenen Positionen "Stresstests" unterzogen worden seien, und dass man sich keine Sorgen machen müsse, auch nicht wenn das "worst-case"-Szenario eintreffen würde. Wow, was für eine Erleichterung! Und natürlich würde die Bank auch mehr Details über ihre Goldgeschäfte veröffentlichen – aber leider sind das Betriebsgeheimnisse.

Aber es gibt einige Punkte, die Sorgen machen. "Nehmen Sie irgendeinen hochspekulativen Sektor, und man kann sicher sein, dass man dort jede Menge Banker von J.P. Morgan treffen wird", so Apogee Research vor einigen Monaten.

"Besonders im Derivate-Markt ist J.P. Morgan stark vertreten. Gemessen am nominalen Wert hält J.P. Morgan fast 2/3 der Gold-Derivate in den USA."

Die Bilanzsumme von J.P. Morgan beträgt 2/3 der Bilanzsumme von Citigroup. Gleichzeitig hält J.P. Morgan viermal so viele Gold-Derivate wie Citigroup. Vielleicht tickt hier keine größere Zeitbombe – aber ich wäre nicht überrascht, wenn die Bank darüber zumindest etwas stolpern würde.

investorverlag

[manfred1_I]

Gerade bei bloomberg:

JPM stuft europäische Aktien herunter und im
gleichen Zug amerikanische Aktien auf neutral
nach oben.

Na denn mal los.

[manfred1_I]

JPM will Anteil an der Venture-Capital-Tochter
reduzieren.

Was passiert denn jetzt wohl mit Silber???
oder Gold????

[granitbiss]

Mindestens das spez.Gewicht wird sich nicht ändern

[manfred1_I]

an granitbiss

ich glaube es geht los.
Ich meine das mit dem Orkan über die Märkte,
Gold u. so weiter.

[granitbiss]

Mannie
Glaube ist gut.

Hoffe, Du warst ind en letzen Monaten permanent in der Kirche

[manfred1_I]

Spannung bleibt erhalten.


Subj: HOWE/BOLSER REPORT STUNS GOLD/INVESTMENT WORLD!!!!!
Date: 12/5/2002 8:46:01 PM Central Standard Time
From: [e-mail]

Things are getting more interesting in the gold and silver world by the day. Reg Howe and Mike Bolser`s report (hyperlinked in today`s MIDAS commentary from Bill Murphy) is mostly over my head. What it says in English is that half of the gold that the world`s central banks say they have....they don`t have....and they`ve been lying about it for years.

Bullion banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, AIG, Bank of America, Deutschebank, Credit Suisse/First Boston have leased all this gold and sold it into the open market to support the "strong dollar policy" of the United States, by keeping the gold price down.

And, when interest rates were much higher, they could do a great interest rate arbitrage on the difference between the gold lease rate and the US Treasury bill rate, and make "free money".

Well, that ain`t working any more. The Central Banks are short 16,000 tonnes of gold that the Bullion Banks owe them, and the Bullion banks in turn are short 16,000 tonnes because they`ve sold all this Central Bank gold into the market place to keep the US$ up, and the US$ price of gold down....plus make their "free money".

16,000 tonnes is more than the entire world produces in six years.

Rob McEwen, the President of Goldcorp, decided to check out the liquidity of the physical gold market by trying to buy 40,000 ounces (1.20 tonnes) on the spot market a few months back. The bullion banks promised two day delivery. It took them more than two weeks to come up with it, and Rob had to pay a higher price than he was quoted to get it.

If the physical market is this tight for 1.2 tonnes...what are the chances the the banks (either central or bullion) will ever see any of their 16,000 tonnes of gold back? And if they do get any of it back, what price are they going to have to pay to get the last ounce they need...or get? Just asking.

Well, the truth of the matter is, that the physical is not, cannot, and never will be there to cover this short position. How this will resolve itself is unknown. But it`s a certainty that when this is all over, the price of gold is going to be much much higher than it is now.

The really incredible part of this is that as bad as it is in the gold market, the situation in silver is simply beyond the believable. You can read about it for free at www.butlerresearch.com Ted Butler is the recognized world expert regarding the silver market.

It`s a hell of a mess, and getting worse with each passing day. Maybe

"King George/"Moron" Jr." is going to try to use his imminent war with Iraq as a cover for all the upcoming economic and financial disasters. It sure wouldn`t surprise me.

If you would like more information regarding the rigging of the gold price, please contact Bill Murphy, the Chairman of GATA (The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) at [e-mail] or Chris Powell, the Secretary-Treasurer at [e-mail]

I urge all of Canada`s press corp to go after this story. Some of you have already done admirable work in this area, for which you are to be commended. But so far you`ve just found the loose end of string that keeps the ball together. If you pull on that thread much further, the whole thing will come unravelled.

As I`ve said before, and I`ll say it again. It`s the story of the century, and there`s a Pulitzer Prize in this somewhere.

Good luck.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[manfred1_I]

Nochmals aus # 42


JPM will Anteil an der Venture-Capital-Tochter
reduzieren.

Was passiert denn jetzt wohl mit Silber???
oder Gold????

[manfred1_I]

Gold scheint zu gewinnen.

"Heads Up!

Gold Breaks Above $330
The Calvary Charges In
The Fight is on
But the ESF, Gold Dealer`s Cartel and Derivative Shorts
Have Already Lost.
By James Sinclair


Just as I told you this was going to happen and it was going to happen now, I have more to tell you.

GOLD HAS WON!

The instructions are simple now. Sell 1/3 of your position against the $348 level. In the meantime, for those that care, step-ladder your purchases down on any more futile selling ventures by the Big Three which are really the Big One (the ESF, the Gold Cartel and our beloved hedgers) who just got the high one from gold.

This move above $330 seals the fate of all those who are positioned in opposition to gold. I have only one thing to say to the gold producer hedgers:

"I told you so! Did you listen?""

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2002/1212.…

[manfred1_I]

Comex open interest exploded, up 14,227 contracts to 198,088 contracts. The floor said the number was bearish. It may have been in the past when The Gold Cartel could do whatever they wanted with gold. Times have changed. The cabal and friends are getting shorter and shorter and weaker and weaker. What we have coming is a commercial signal failure, which will cause a short-covering buying panic.

Rumors were circulating in London in the gold world that the central banks are going to make some sort of announcement this weekend to quell the gold rally. What, after a $10 pop? That would be pathetic and could backfire. Certainly, any sort of official statement to knock the price of gold down would be one more affirmation of GATA’s assertions.

The CRB rocked again, closing at 234.71, up another 1.07 - almost a five-year high. But, there is no inflation!

The dollar closed lower at the pivotal 104 level, 103.98 to be precise. See the take on the dollar from Bridgewater Associates below in JB’s report.

The bonds finished almost a full point lower even though the market was weak.

The DOG tanked 37 to 1362, The DOW was hit for 104 points and ended at 8433. The S&P swooned to 889. All three finished below their key technical support points of 1400, 8500 and 900 respectively.

The set-up for a gold price explosion continues to get better and better.

Morgan Stanley was a huge seller of silver, keeping it from taking out its important resistance point of $4.75.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[manfred1_I]

Barrick Gold Corp. And J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Accused by Blanchard and Company Of $2 Billion Illegal Gold Market Manipulation
12/18/2002 1:02:00 PM









NEW ORLEANS, Dec 18, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- An anti-trust lawsuit filed today accuses Barrick Gold Corp., Toronto, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., New York City, of "unlawfully combining to actively manipulate the price of gold" and making (US)$2 billion in short-selling profits by suppressing the price of gold at the expense of individual investors.

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The suit was filed by Blanchard and Company, Inc., New Orleans, the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the United States, and by Blanchard clients who bought gold bullion. Blanchard (www.blanchardonline.com) is paying the costs of the suit, which asks the Federal Court to terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks. It also seeks the payment of treble damages to Blanchard`s clients for the losses they have suffered as a result of Barrick`s and J.P. Morgan Chase`s unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices.

"Since the end of 1987, when the collaboration between Barrick and J.P. Morgan began, the growth of global income and wealth would have lifted the gold price to approximately $740 if the price had been able to respond to the normal laws of supply and demand," stated Blanchard`s Chief Executive Officer, Donald W. Doyle, Jr. "If gold had kept pace with inflation, the price today would be approximately $760."

The lawsuit claims that in the past five years Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase injected millions of additional ounces of gold into the market - additions that were several times as great as the annual production of every gold mine in South Africa, the largest gold producing nation in the world. By using privately negotiated derivative contracts and concealing the addition of billions of dollars worth of (physical) gold with off-balance sheet accounting, Barrick was able to make it virtually impossible for gold analysts and investors to determine the size and the market impact of its trading positions.

"The same type of accounting maze that hid Enron`s debts made it possible for Barrick to manipulate the price of gold without the checks and balances that come from public scrutiny. As a percentage of Barrick`s total assets, its off-balance sheet assets make Enron look like a champion of full disclosure," said Doyle. "Is Barrick a gold mining company, or is it a hedge fund with a mine out back?"

The suit alleges that J.P. Morgan Chase financed Barrick`s repeated short selling with remarkably advantageous terms not available to others, including deferred repayments and no margin calls. Doyle said the short-sales scheme between the bank and Barrick appears to be the proverbial "money for nothing."

"Over the past five years, J.P. Morgan Chase loaned gold to Barrick at approximately 1.5 percent; sold the gold into the market and invested the dollar proceeds at approximately 6.5 percent; then paid both the proceeds from the sales and the 5 percent interest differential to Barrick whenever it repaid any of the borrowed gold. During a period when the price of gold dropped by more than 25%, Barrick`s annual operating cash flow increased by more than 400%."

"In 1983, Barrick was a start-up with a single mine in Canada, a founder with no experience in the gold business, and principal investors from Saudi Arabia. Today, through a combination of market manipulation and a 1992 transaction that the U.S. Secretary of the Interior described as `the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy,` Barrick has amassed off-balance sheet assets that are worth more than the market capitalizations of the next five biggest gold mining companies in the world combined," said Doyle.

Doyle explained that "Blanchard and Company was founded on the belief that gold and other tangible assets are essential to proper portfolio diversification. However, because of the illegal manipulation of its price, we advised our clients to avoid gold like the plague until such time as the free market laws of supply and demand were allowed to dictate the price. We believe that the anti-trust lawsuit filed today will stop the illegal suppression of the price of gold and other hard assets and return them to their roles as stores of value and financial insurance."

The suit was filed by the law firm of Jones, Verras & Freiberg, LLC of New Orleans in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana. It is document number 02-3721 Section C, Blanchard and Company, Inc. V. Barrick Gold Corporation; J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and ABC Companies. A web site is being set up to provide ongoing information, www.savegold.com.

Blanchard and Company, Inc. and Save Gold
Neal R. Ryan, 888/531-4653


http://www.businesswire.com

[manfred1_I]

.P. Morgan wegen mutmaßlicher Goldpreismanipulation angeklagt
New Orleans (vwd) - Die J.P. Morgan Chase & Co, New York, und die Barrick Gold Corp, Toronto, sind wegen der mutmaßlicher Manipulation des Goldpreises angeklagt. Die Klage wurde am Mittwoch von der in New Orleans ansässigen Blanchard & Co sowie von Kunden des Unternehmens eingereicht. Blanchard wirft den Beklagten vor, sie hätten den Goldpreis auf Kosten einzelner Investoren gedrückt und durch Short-Verkäufe zwei Mrd USD verdient. Blanchard gilt als größter Goldhändler in den USA.


vwd/DJ/18.12.2002/cn/jhe

18. Dezember 2002, 20:00

[manfred1_I]

Ich kann es einfach nicht glauben, was Barrick und
JPM da abgezogen haben.

[TFischer]

manfred, das meinst Du aber nicht ernst?!

[manfred1_I]

Will Morgan e-mails about `disguised loans`
be admitted as evidence in insurance trial?

By David Voreacos

NEW YORK, Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Vice Chairman Donald Layton`s e-mails describing transactions as "disguised loans" are so "explosive," said a U.S. judge, that he might exclude them at a fraud trial involving 11 insurers.

U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff is weighing whether to let jurors review the e-mails in a case where J.P. Morgan sued insurers to force them to pay $1 billion on surety bonds backing gas and oil transactions involving Enron Corp. The insurers refused to pay after Enron`s collapse, saying the trades were masked loans to Enron through an offshore entity.

Rakoff said today he has made no decision about whether to
admit the e-mails. Layton told the judge at a hearing last night that the e-mails have nothing to do with the Enron trades at issue in the trial. Rather, Layton said the e-mails described his 1999 review of internal accounting when the bank advances cash in certain commodities or equities derivative transactions.

"What makes this a close call is that the use of the term `disguised loans` is an explosive one in the context of this case," Rakoff said during a two-hour hearing after jurors left last night.

In a second hearing today, Rakoff said he would rule by
Friday or Monday. "This is an important and close decision, and I haven`t made up my mind," the judge said.

The insurers, which include units of Allianz AG, Chubb Corp., CNA Financial Corp. and Kemper Insurance Cos., view the Layton e- mails as crucial evidence in a trial that began Dec. 2.

Layton testified at yesterday`s hearing, where the contents of several of the e-mails were revealed. He said that he began reviewing how the bank recorded certain transactions after learning about a complicated equities derivative transaction in Hong Kong that he thought was handled improperly.

"We are making disguised loans, usually buried in commodities or equities derivatives," Layton wrote in one e-mail. "They are understood to be disguised loans and approved as such. But I am queasy about the process." (Dieser Satz deutet zumindest schon mal an, dass etwas dran sein könnte an den neuen Anschuldigungen wegen Goldpreismanipulationen.TG)

In another e-mail, Layton said the phrase "disguised loans" was "a pejorative phrase even if generally accurate." He suggested that a more accurate phrase would be "derivatives-based fundings.``

At the hearing, Layton said none of the 1999 e-mails referred to transactions involving Enron, which sold oil and gas to a bank-sponsored entity, Mahonia Ltd. He said he used the phrase "disguised loans" as a colloquial expression to refer to cash disbursed upfront in certain derivatives transactions, including those involving commodities.

He said he got e-mails from a bank employee in late 1998
describing the Enron transactions, although he didn`t recall them when he wrote his e-mails six months later. He said he only learned of the Enron-Mahonia transactions around the time of the energy trader`s bankruptcy filing last December.

In the trial, the insurers claim that through a series of sales agreements, as well as commodity and interest rate swaps, Enron bought back the commodities it sold to Mahonia.

Under New York law, insurers can write surety bonds for commodities sales, although they are barred from backing loans. The insurers claimed that the bank defrauded them into writing six surety bonds between 1998 and 2000 by concealing crucial details about the circular nature of the trades. J.P. Morgan claims the surety companies failed to ask important questions.

At last night`s hearing, Rakoff said that while the Layton
e-mails may help the jurors understand the case, he was
concerned that they also may confuse the panel and
prejudice them against the bank.

In his opening statement for insurers, attorney Alan Levine alluded to the Layton e-mails when he said the bank used the words "disguised loans" in internal documents.

"Chase has a real problem with that phrase," Levine argued. "These deals were disguised loans, and the words actually have the bad, nasty connotation that they deserve. This isn`t our phrase, it`s their phrase. A better one for what they did here I couldn`t dream up myself."

[manfred1_I]

an TFisher

natürlich meine ich das nicht ganz Ernst.

Aber es erstaunt mich, dass die Allianz da
auch irgenwie mit drin hängt.Wenn auch
nur als Geschädigte.

[granitbiss]

Die Verschwörung ist wieder am Werk

30.12.02 welche Sauerei

[crashkommt]

Na Hirnschiss,


sehr konstruktiv.


Hau endlich ab und geh zurueck zu Deinem Neuen Markt.

Dummschwaetzer

[manfred1_I]

Zum Jahresende müssen die Bilanzen geschönt werden.

Ich denke, ab 11.00 Uhr waren die Jungs im Einsatz.

[manfred1_I]

Vielleicht kauft ja jetzt JPM als Gegenleistung
bei IBM ober Big Apple für ein paar Milliarden
Computer!

[manfred1_I]

MORE ON THE BLANCHARD SUIT…AND THE DEATH-DEFYING (?) BARRICK HEDGE BOOK

By Chris Temple
Jan 2, 2003

www.nationalinvestor.com



The Blanchard suit against Barrick and J.P. Morgan-Chase is, of course, a big story. The implications go far beyond what the current price of gold should be, and involve the financial health of banking houses and entire financial market sectors.

As with GATA`s earlier suit, Blanchard’s gets little attention in the "mainstream"/financial press. In fact, I have not yet seen a single mention of the Blanchard suit on CNBC, even with all the talk of gold spiking recently, and otherwise having a very good 2002. At least, a couple times in the past, they did have one or more GATA folks (or ones sympathetic to the "conspiracy theory" on if, perhaps, for no other reason than in the hopes they`d be ridiculed for their views.

Just this morning, a Morgan big shot was on CNBC, and talked for a good 15 minutes about all their problems, known suits and UNKNOWN suits. He said that JPM would be establishing a nearly $1 billion separate account for settlements. He also discussed the bank`s substantial derivatives exposure. But not a single word was uttered about Blanchard, Barrick or gold.

Interestingly, Morgan put out a press release several months ago attempting to dispel any notion that it was in "trouble" due to gold-related contracts. I never did see any catalyst for this; yet all of a sudden, there was their announcement. No follow-up by the media, though; as with today, most of their interest is about Enron-related stuff. But for Morgan to have issued such a statement seemingly out of the blue, you know there had to be serious enough "scuttlebutt" for them to feel the need to respond.

The important thing to remember about both GATA`s and, presumably, Blanchard`s actions is that they are motivated by something more than the price of gold, and/or some "gold bugs" just being angry that their favorite investment has been a poor performer for so long. In any case, that point has in the past been articulated to me well by GATA`s Bill Murphy.

The real "story" here is how gold has been used as a vehicle for speculators to engage in, ultimately, very risky financial behavior. Far from being an issue solely of gold`s "forced" or otherwise contrived underperformance as an asset class/investment, it`s one of shenanigans (short selling, arbitrage, derivative trading and the rest) having been engaged in that threaten the health of several financial institutions, and even the whole monetary/financial structure itself.

Much has been written (by me and others) of the "carry trade" that helped gold decline from over $400 per ounce in January, 1996 to lows near $250 per ounce. Most of those who engaged in this activity (generally consisting of borrowing gold from central or bullion banks, selling it and investing the proceeds elsewhere at higher returns than the lease rate cost for the gold) had no feelings for gold one way or another. They simply saw an opportunity to exploit a thin market for short-term financial gain. Some claim, though, that many of these contracts are overextended; and that if everyone short gold had to purchase metal to cover, it would be impossible.

Producer hedging also served to push gold down; but this practice started to come into disrepute in the Fall, 1999 short squeeze. When market prices rose higher than

hedge contracts` selling price for forward-sold gold, that meant these contracts became major LIABILITIES to the companies who`d hedged their production. Specifically, two companies--Ashanti and Cambior--were brought to their knees financially when their hedge books plunged under water for a while.

Curiously, Barrick--the biggest and most sophisticated player by far among gold hedgers--escaped this fate; and has continued to, so far. When it has at times been questioned about its own potential losses if gold were to move substantially higher, Barrick has usually stated that it has little or no adverse exposure; in effect, that its

hedge contracts are a "win/win" situation.

In short, it has somehow been able to construct hedges that it can wiggle out of for quite a while if the company’s bet on a falling gold price were not to materialize. Following is an explanation of this practice contained in a recent issue of Strategic Investment newsletter:

"Ordinarily, a hedge protects a producer or investor from the downside. Other things being equal, it does so by limiting their upside. Barrick, whose hedge book had assets of $5.5 billion at the end of 2001, however, has managed to construct a hedge that allows it considerable upside if gold rises. And one big bank could be caught very short. Apparently, Barrick has hedged part of its production through a spot deferred forward sale contract. Barrick makes a forward contract with a bank to deliver (unmined) gold at a certain price at a certain date. But what makes these contracts different, and also dangerous, for counter-parties is that Barrick has the right to defer the delivery of the gold for periods ranging from five to 10 years. More recently, Barrick seems even to have entered into contracts that allow it to defer delivery for 15 years. . ."

The piece in S.I. continues, referring to information and opinions apparently obtained from Len Williams, head of fixed income and commodity research at London-based Durlacher. "According to Williams, while deferring or rolling over a contract is not unusual in the financial world, it can usually be done for only a short period and both parties have to agree. But Barrick appears to have pulled off a coup by writing extended-length contracts that allow it to take the decision unilaterally. This can be very lucrative for Barrick. Say gold is trading at $300 an ounce and Barrick agrees to sell Bank X one million ounces of gold at $320 an ounce in 12 months. If gold then trades at $310 an ounce one year later, Barrick will sell the gold to the bank and receive a better price than it would get elsewhere. But if gold has shot up to $350, Barrick can choose to defer the sale to the bank, and sell its gold in the market. This gives it the best of both worlds—little risk and the highest price available.

"If you are Bank X holding the obligation to buy the one million ounces at $320 per ounce, then you need to hedge this position in the market. Standard gold futures contracts have no deferral clauses, so you sell forward the gold that you don’t have, which means, you are now relying on Barrick to deliver the gold so you can fulfill your end of the bargain. If Barrick decides to defer the sale, though, there could be trouble—which is what we hear could happen. Apparently, one sizeable bank active in this market has a gold derivatives book of $41 billion, a significant part of which is attributable to its dealings with Barrick. Barrick’s contract apparently has the option to defer any sale. If the gold price starts to accelerate, Barrick could choose to defer and the bank will have to find some other way to get the gold it needs to fulfill its own obligations. How will it do that? It will have to buy the gold—potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth—in the market. A forced buyer of that size would send gold rocketing to $400 or even $450 an ounce, prices not seen since the early 1980’s. You may have a question: How could a bank do something so risky? . . ." (Emphasis added.)

That question, of course, is the intriguing part of this. Though not completely out of the realm of possibility, nobody is suggesting that the venerable House of Morgan is so stupid as to have engaged in such a consistently one-sided arrangement without an "outlet" or fail-safe of its own. This is where things could get interesting, if Blanchard succeeds in obtaining this kind of information in a courtroom down the road. About all we can do right now is speculate; but the fact that it was J.P. Morgan that—not coincidentally, in my opinion—acted as the conduit for the New York Federal Reserve Bank to end gold’s short squeeze from September 29-October 5, 1999 provides perhaps the strongest possible clue.

I for one do not believe that Morgan can or will be done in by its gold dealings, though it’s possible that some others Morgan might have offloaded risk on to could be in greater danger. Its exposure to telecommunications and energy bad debts is by all available information substantially larger. Investors—and gold investors, in particular—have for months now been smelling trouble where Barrick is concerned, however. Barrick’s share price has been clearly the worst performer among gold majors; and not due solely to the fact that it was jettisoned from the S&P 500 during 2002. At the least, investors are suspicious of its hedges and potential future exposure to a sustained gold bull market; in any case, the more glamorous stocks to own now are those producers who remain unhedged.

We must go beyond even this, though, to wonder what this mining giant’s fate might be. Last Fall, the company made more than one announcement warning of production shortfalls, earnings woes and more. Many are asking what on Earth is going on. With declining production, can the company keep all its long-term obligations to deliver gold at any price? Now the ugly duckling in the sector, will Barrick have the clout necessary to purchase more and better production? Does its reduced earnings for 2002 mean that—already—the company is having to eat some recent losses on its hedge book; losses it’s tried to tell investors were virtually impossible? Nobody really knows for sure right now. But there are lots of questions; and Barrick’s share performance especially during the second half of 2002 tells us that something may be badly amiss.

The Barrick dealings with Morgan do not involve a huge amount of gold, within the context of the overall short position which is said to exist. Blanchard’s going after these two, though, represents an achievable means of eventually blowing the lid off the entire universe of gold "manipulation." And—given Barrick’s position as a producer in particular—the antitrust case is arguably the easiest to make against them.

Time will tell whether the Blanchard action goes anywhere; but as I wrote recently, it stands a far better chance than did GATA’s action.

[manfred1_I]

Finanzen.net-Nachricht (USA)




Mittwoch, 08.01.2003, 16:56

J.P. Morgan-Aktie nach negativen Kommentaren im Minus

Die Aktie der Investmentbank J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. verliert am
heutigen Mittwoch deutlich an Wert, nachdem sich zwei
Analysten mit negativen Kommentaren geäußert haben.

Einerseits stufte UBS Warburg die Aktie von "Kaufen" auf "Halten"
herab, andererseits senkte Morgan Stanley-Analyst Henry McVey
seine Ergebnisprognose für das vierte Quartal von 40 Cents pro
Aktie auf -6 Cents pro Aktie, was auf mit Enron verbundene Sonderbelastungen (1,3 Mrd. Dollar) und höhere
Entschädigungskosten zurückgeführt wird.

McVey korrigierte zudem die Ergebnisprognose für 2003 nach unten. Demnach erwartet er bei J.P. Morgan nach
ursprünglich 2,42 Dollar nun lediglich einen Gewinn von 2,20 Dollar pro Aktie. Ursache hierfür seien ein geringerer Umsatz
und höhere Kreditkosten.

Die Aktie von J.P. Morgan Chase verliert an der NYSE derzeit 4,67 Prozent auf 26,54 Dollar.

[e-mail]

[manfred1_I]

In den letzten Wochen sind die Hedger ganz
schön ins Schwitzen gekommen.
Jetzt etwas Erleichterung. Aber nicht mehr
lange denke ich.

February 7 - Gold $369.30 unchanged - Silver $4.62 down 3 cents

Gold Cartel Ploy Running Into Trouble

The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie. One word of truth outweighs the world...Alexander Solzhenitsyn

That’s why the GATA ARMY is defeating The Gold Cartel crooks!

It was a topsy-turvy trading session on Comex, as expected. What I see as the important gold points:

*The move by Comex to increase margins by 50% was an aggressive attempt by Gold Cartel forces to do what they could to create a spec long liquidation debacle. It was blatant and calculated. The shorts are the JP Morgans and Morgan Stanleys of the world. They have very deep pockets compared to the small specs. We know that just by the fact they have stayed short all the way up. This is just one more example to support GATA’s claims that US officialdom and the Wall Street bullion houses are very anti-gold. Even while going down to defeat, they continue to use the few manipulation ploys still available to them.

*As stated yesterday, I don’t think their ploy will work because the physical market is so strong and there are too many other LARGE specs that want to buy the dips. The Gold Cartel was found out for sure with the release of the Howe/Bolser report on December 4th. Many big investment players may have missed the move thus far and they want in. Today, for example, Refco was out there aggressively buying for fund clients.

*Notice all the gold talk these days on CNBC, etc. It is remarkable. Talk such as “the stock market goes down when gold goes up” is rampant. This is exactly a motive GATA has given for the rigging of the gold price all these years. Like it or not, a rising gold price is used as a barometer that something is not right in financial market land. This is the bad guys` worst nightmare and a reason why they are trying to take the gold price back down. The gold barometer is just what the cabal wants to keep in check and away from view by the average citizen.

*The Comex open interest dropped a substantial 14,040 contracts to 231,542. While a big drop, it was far less than we thought it would be. There was substantial small spec liquidation, which means there were some big hedge fund types that showed up as buyers on the break yesterday.

*Morgan Stanley showed as the only featured seller today and went home very short.

*There has been a big time player accumulating 15,000 Red December gold futures contracts. That is the Dec 2004 contract and that is a monstrous position. He began selling a few of those contracts today, which turned Morgan Stanley into an aggressive seller. The thinking clearly being if that guy has to dump because of the margin increase, gold could really tank. But, he stopped.

*The CRB exploded into new high ground, finishing the day at 249.11, up 1.68. Oil rose to new highs at $34.49, trading above $35 part of the day. But, there is no inflation!

*Gold has steadied up since the $6 break on the access session after the close on Wednesday. Normally, a gold liquidating spec market takes a minimum of two weeks to begin its trek higher again. That was usually the case in the old free market days. Gold is emerging from the rigged market days, so all bets are off. Anything can happen price wise in the next couple of trading sessions, but I shall be very surprised if gold isn’t moving higher again by the middle of next week. As has been all the way up, The Gold Cartel is meeting far more buying power and resistance to their selling than they bargained for.

* The US stock market gets heavier and heavier. The DOW fell 65 to 7864, while the DOG broke key 1300 support to 1282, down 19. The more they drop, the more pressure on the bullion banks and their clients who are saddled with enormous gold short positions. It won’t be long before various credit committees declare, “NO MAS.”

One savvy Café member notes:

“You should get the GATA army to find out when was the last time that the Comex changed their margin requirements on ANY commodity. I can`t recall something so hostile since they went after the Hunts.”

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

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ThaiGuru