Jabil Circuit "kaufen" - Merrill Lynch - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[CheckPoint]

Analyst Labowitz vom Merrill Lynch hat gestern das Prädikat für den Hersteller von Halbleitern, Jabil Circuit Inc. (WKN: 886423, JBL), angehoben.

Wie bekannt wurde, laute das mittelfristige Prädikat nun "kaufen". Zuvor hieß es "neutral". Ein Grund sei der starke Kursrückgang des Unternehmens. So betrage der Preisrückgang der Aktie mehr als 30%. Jabil sollte ein Profiteur des Outsourcing-Trends bei den Telekommunikationszubehör-Herstellern sein. Diese Unternehmen vergaben in der Vergangenheit immer mehr Aufträge an außenstehende Firmen.

Aufgrund des hohen Levels an Kunden-Service bei Jabil sollte sowohl der Umsatz als auch der Gewinn des Unternehmens in Zukunft schneller wachsen als der der Industrie. Jabil konzentriere sich auf den schnell wachsenden Endmarkt, auf value-added Designservice und einen synchronisierten globalen Produktionsprozeß.

Hi Leute,
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[NoamX]

Kann ich da immer nur anschliessen. Der ganze ECM
(electronic component manufacturing) Markt ist interessant.
Der gesamte Outsourcing Markt wächst mit 30-40% im Jahr. Die
Kundschaft ließt sich wie ein Who ist Who der High Tech Industrie:
Cisco, Lucent, HP, Microsoft (Mäuse und Keyboards), Dell etc.

Man kann IMHO fast alle großen Player blind kaufen. Eine Auswahl:

JBL
FLEX
SLR
SANM
CLS
SCI
HDCO

Ich selber habe seit drei Jahren Flex mit einer _jährlichen_
Steigerung von je 100%, Jabil habe ich mir nach dem letzten
Schwächeanfall im Sommer hinzugenommen. SLR scheint mir auch
interessant zu sein.

NoamX



Jabil Circuit (JBL-NYSE)

by Credit Suisse First Boston

(Dec. 17)

Applying a 40 times multiple to the [$2.10] mid-point of our calendar
2000 and 2001 EPS of $1.80 and $2.40, respectively, translates into an $82 price target. We reiterate our Buy rating.

[NoamX]

Outsourcers Rise Again
January 11, 2000
by Robert McGarvey

Just a decade ago, outsource manufacturing was a grimy little industry where no-name shops with wallet-thin
capitalizations jumped whenever brand-name OEMs called with overflow manufacturing work.

But feast your eyes on the buffed up and rechristened electronic manufacturing services
(EMS) companies that have become the darlings of Wall Street. In fiscal 1999, industry
leader Solectron pulled in $8.4 billion in revenues, along with profits of $293.9 million -
enough to command a current market cap of $23 billion. That`s more than half again as
great as the market caps of far more publicized media favorites such as Apple Computer
(market cap, $14.5 billion) and 3Com (market cap, $14.6 billion).

But this is not a one-company category. Just about all of Solectron`s major competitors,
from Flextronics International to Celestica and Jabil Circuit, are riding high on billions in
revenues and burly market caps. "I like all the leaders," says Roger Norberg, an analyst
with US Bancorp Piper Jaffray. "This is a great growth industry."

In 1998, the global market for contract manufacturing weighed in at around $60 billion, according to figures
compiled by Technology Forecasters, a firm that tracks the EMS sector. But the firm predicts growth at 20
percent annually, with the market projected to top $150 billion by 2003 - estimates that the firm`s president,
Pamela Gordon, characterizes as "conservative."

Richer paydays loom just around the corner, too, say industry experts. "About 15 to 20 percent of
electronics manufacturing now is outsourced, but within 10 years, 50 percent will be," claims Randall
Sherman, president of New Venture Consulting, a consulting company that specializes in the outsourcing
industry. He estimates today`s electronics manufacturing market at $425 billion, which means that if he`s
right, revenues for outsourcing companies are about to explode.

The sector`s top guns are saying the same thing. "By 2001, to compete in this business, you`ll need $10
billion in annual revenues," says Eugene Polistuk, CEO of Celestica. "Just five years ago, nobody would
have thought there would be a $10 billion EMS, but soon that is going to be the minimum to be a Tier 1
company."

Riding the Wave
Why are OEMs rushing to contract out their manufacturing? "We`re in the midst of an enormous shift in
strategy by OEMs, where they now are embracing a virtual manufacturing strategy because it saves them
money," says Jabil`s president, Tim Main. "On the low side, when an OEM outsources to us, its savings will
be 10 percent. It could be as high as 50 percent if they have been very sloppy."

Gordon adds, "For an OEM, the benefits of outsourcing are compelling. The OEM gets to concentrate on
its core competencies - R&D and marketing - and reduces costs. And it decreases debt because
manufacturing is capital-intensive and those investments are shifted to another company`s books. The
question shouldn`t be, Why is this happening? The question should be, Why didn`t this happen sooner?"

One reason it didn`t happen sooner is "it had a stigma," says Gary Venner, director of consulting at
Technology & Business Integrators. OEMs hadn`t accepted the notion of putting their labels on products
they had never touched, so many were leery about outsourcing manufacturing.

But relentless downward pressure on pricing forced OEMs to take another look at outsourcing about five
years ago, and most of them liked what they saw. "Often you can get higher-quality manufacturing and lower
costs by turning to a contract manufacturing solution," says Robert Freid, principal of Contract
Manufacturing Consultants, a firm that advises companies seeking outsourcing solutions.

Do the OEMs lose anything by handing off manufacturing to an outside company? Probably not. "There
really are few places where manufacturing makes the difference," says Bryan Stolle, CEO of Agile Software,
which develops supply-chain management software. "It`s all about time to market and pricing."

Accelerating time to market is where the EMSs shine. These companies have facilities scattered around the
world, so time to market is almost instantaneous. In the process, costs inevitably are pared down.
"Manufacturing is our business, and we`re good at it," says Michael Marks, CEO of Flextronics, a
Singapore-incorporated company with administrative headquarters in San Jose, Calif. "OEMs never cared
about, never put their top people in, plants - but we do. And we also run our plants at much higher capacity.
That`s how we can cut costs and deliver quality."

Another plus for outsourcers is "substantial supply-chain efficiencies," adds Gordon. That`s because a
contract manufacturer places mammoth orders with its vendors, and "they get economies of scale no
individual OEM could enjoy," says Barry Jaruzelski, a vice president with Booz Allen & Hamilton.

There are, however, some downsides. "Confidentiality remains an issue for some OEMs, and that`s kept
them from outsourcing," says Gordon. Competitive product lines often are run in the same EMS plant, and
while the contract manufacturers all swear they safeguard customer secrets, the reality is that the essence of
cost cutting is pooling resources to maximize capacity utilization. Yet the secrecy issue may not be as
significant in practice as one might think. "Many companies have realized their manufacturing was commodity
processes, not proprietary," says Freid, "and that`s why they have gained more comfort with outsourcing."

[NoamX]

Auch wenn das hier niemanden zu interessieren scheint...

Wenn das Potential nach oben (100%/Jahr) auch beschränkter ist als bei den
Internetwerten, scheint mir das Risiko ebenfalls sehr beschränkt. Immerhin
machen die ECMs alle Gewinn.


From Bank of America Conference ...

Outsourcing Paradigm Provides Increased Visibility, Drives
Continued Momentum In Contract Manufacturing Sector, Says Banc of America Securities Analyst

SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Feb. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is being
issued by Banc of America Securities, a member of the National Association of
Securities Dealers, CRD number 26091:

As its major players transform themselves into fully integrated end-to-end
manufacturing partners, the contract electronic manufacturing (CEM) industry
is evolving from its previous role of supplying customer buffer capacity,
according to Banc of America Securities` senior data storage analyst, Paul
Fox.
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19990920/BASLOGO )
"Today these companies are managing the supply chain and operating on
tight schedules and budgets to produce increasingly sophisticated products,"
Fox said. "This leaves the customers to focus on what they do best -- product
development, marketing and brand management."

Fox made his comments to investors yesterday at the 17th Annual Banc of
America Securities Technology Conference, which runs through Friday,
February 4 at the Ritz Carlton in San Francisco. This year`s Tech Week will
feature 195 presentations from public and private companies representing a
broad spectrum of investment opportunities in communications services,
computer and peripherals, distribution, networking, semiconductor, software
and Internet industries.

The top contract manufacturers are poised for sustainable growth
significantly above already robust industry rates, which in turn should
translate into continued strong stock appreciation, said Fox. In fact, CEMs`
stock prices have significantly outperformed the market by several orders of
magnitude over the past several years. In 1999, CEM stocks rallied
170 percent, in comparison to 19 percent for the S&P 500 Index.

According to Fox, the large contract manufacturing firms are well
positioned to continue to increase their market share in the production of
electronics products for their original equipment manufacturers. These
customers increasingly outsource manufacturing to contract manufacturers to
help reduce costs and working capital requirements, increase manufacturing
flexibility, access branding advantages, and speed product time-to-market.
Moreover, contract manufacturers offer an expertise in manufacturing that
their customers are eager to leverage, Fox said.

The top ten contract manufacturing companies are expected to grow their
revenues even faster than the overall industry. Posting revenues of more than
$33 billion in 1999, these ten players are expected to generate over
$85 billion by 2002, said Fox.

Fox pointed out that contract manufacturers generally grow less through
acquisitions of competitors than by integrating divestitures from other
manufacturers. For example, these companies often make agreements to take
over the manufacturing operations of their major customers, such as those from
IBM and Hewlett-Packard, in return for long-term volume purchase agreements
from the customers. Such acquisitions are typically low risk and inexpensive,
Fox noted. Other key factors to contract manufacture growth include
establishing low cost manufacturing sites in Mexico, Brazil, Asia and Central
Europe, and maintaining diverse customer and revenue mixes.

Fox recommended the stocks of the seven largest players in the CEM
industry, which altogether account for 95 percent of its market
capitalization: C-Mac Industries (Toronto stock exchange: CMS, Strong Buy)*,
Celestica Corporation (NYSE: CLS, $49.13, Strong Buy)*, Flextronics
International Ltd. (Nasdaq: FLEX, $54.81, Strong Buy)*, Jabil Circuit, Inc.
(NYSE: JBL, $69.13, Strong Buy)*, Sanmina Corporation (Nasdaq: SANM, $111.13,
Strong Buy)*, SCI Systems, Inc. (NYSE: SCI, $72.38, Strong Buy), and
Solectron Corporation (NYSE: SLR, $81.75, Strong Buy)*.

[NoamX]

Und weiter:

Jabil Circuit Posts Record Revenue & Earnings
Announces Two-for-one Stock Split

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 16, 2000--Jabil Circuit, Inc. (NYSE:JBL - news), electronics manufacturer to the world
market for circuit board assemblies and services, today reported record revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2000, ended February 29, 2000.
Revenue for the quarter increased 50 percent to $837.6 million compared to $ 558.7 million for the same period of fiscal 1999.

Jabil`s second quarter of fiscal 2000 net income increased 52 percent to $33.9 million or $0.37 per diluted share compared with $22.3 million or
$0.27 per diluted share for the second quarter of fiscal 1999.

Gross profit for fiscal 2000 second quarter increased 40 percent to $84.1 million or 10 percent of revenue compared to $60.1 million or 10.8
percent of revenue for the corresponding quarter of fiscal 1999.

Operating income for the second fiscal quarter of 2000 increased 41 percent to $ 50.6 million or 6 percent of revenue compared to $35.9 million or
6.4 percent of revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 1999.

Revenues for the first six months of fiscal year 2000 increased 45 percent to $1.5 billion, compared to $1.1 billion for the same time period of fiscal
1999. Net income for the first six months of fiscal 2000 increased 54 percent to $ 65.1 million, compared with $42.3 million last fiscal year. Diluted
earnings per share for the first six months of fiscal 2000 increased 39 percent to $0.71 compared to $0.51 for the same period of fiscal 1999. This
excludes the impact of an acquisition-related charge of approximately $5 million, or $0.05 EPS recorded in the first fiscal quarter of 2000.

The Company announced a stock split in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend. The record date for the stock split will be March 23, 2000 with
distribution of the split shares on March 30, 2000. Jabil Circuit shares will begin trading on a split basis at the opening of the market on March 31,
2000. The stock dividend will increase the number of Common Stock shares outstanding from approximately 92.3 million shares to approximately
184.6 million shares.

Income Statement -- Sequential Trend Highlights

Revenue in the second fiscal quarter increased by 21 percent from the first quarter, reflecting solid production levels in most business segments.
Gross margin was 10 percent of revenue for the quarter, reflecting an increase in production with a more materials-intensive mix.
Operating income increased sequentially by 14 percent to $50.6 million, or 6.0 percent of revenue. Operating results represent a cumulative
operating income growth of 29 percent in the first six months of the fiscal year - nearly attaining the company`s annual goal of 30 percent in just
two quarters. Growth of operating income is Jabil`s key financial objective. This excludes the impact of an acquisition-related charge of
approximately $5 million, or $0.05 EPS recorded in the first fiscal quarter of 2000.
Net income after tax was $33.9 million or 4.1 percent of revenue, as compared to 4.5 percent in the prior sequential quarter. This excludes the
impact of an acquisition-related charge of approximately $5 million, or $0.05 EPS recorded in the first fiscal quarter of 2000.
Earnings per share for second fiscal quarter of 2000 were $0.37 on an average 92.3 million shares during the period, fully diluted.

Balance Sheet -- Sequential Trend Highlights

Accounts receivable increased by $60 million to $379 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2000, as compared to $319 million in the first
quarter. Calculated days sales outstanding were 41, compared to 42 in the first quarter.
Inventories increased by $54 million in the second quarter to $353 million as compared to $299 million as of the end of November. Calculated
inventory turns were 9, an improvement from 8 in the prior quarter.

-- Debt-to-capitalization ratio for the period was 17 percent.

-- Average return on assets for the period was 11.1 percent.

-- Average return on equity for the period was 21.6 percent.

Business Outlook (NOTE: The following statements are forward looking; actual results may differ materially.)

Jabil President Tim Main said, ``We are very pleased with the continuing strength of our core business and the performance and contributions of our
employees in a challenging growth environment. In support of this growth, we will continue to invest in our core competencies to maintain and
improve upon our performance and fundamental manufacturing execution.``

Jabil Circuit, Inc. is an electronic manufacturing services provider for international electronics companies in the communications, personal computer,
peripheral, consumer and automotive markets. Jabil offers circuit design, board design from schematic, mechanical and production design, prototype
assembly, volume board assembly and system assembly services from 12 locations in North and South America, Europe and Asia.

This release contains certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Some factors that could cause
actual results to differ materially include: business conditions and growth in the contract manufacturing industry and the general economy; variability of
operating results; dependence on a limited number of customers; limited availability of components; dependence on certain industries; variability of
customer requirements; and other risk factors described in the company`s most recently filed SEC documents such as the Form 10-K, filed 12/7/99.

JABIL CIRCUIT, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(In thousands, except for per share data)
(Unaudited)

Three months ended Six months ended
------------------ -----------------
Feb. 29, Feb. 28, Feb. 29, Feb. 28,
2000 1999 2000 1999
-------- -------- --------- ---------

Net revenue $ 837,562 $ 558,703 $1,527,384 $1,053,818
Cost of revenue 753,479 498,601 1,369,914 939,021
-------- -------- --------- ---------
Gross profit 84,083 60,102 157,470 114,797

Operating expenses:
Selling, general and
administrative 31,612 22,452 58,663 43,277
Research and development 1,203 1,432 2,385 2,889
Amortization of intangibles 644 294 1,243 651
Acquisition-related charge - - 5,153 -
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating income 50,624 35,924 90,026 67,980

Interest income (32) (419) (1,212) (748)
Interest expense 1,474 2,311 2,039 4,240
-------- -------- -------- --------

Income before income taxes 49,182 34,032 89,199 64,488

Income tax expense 15,246 11,778 28,775 22,218
-------- -------- -------- --------

Net income $ 33,936 $ 22,254 $ 60,424 $ 42,270
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------
Earnings per share:
Basic $ 0.39 $ 0.28 $ 0.69 $ 0.53
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------
Diluted $ 0.37 $ 0.27 $ 0.66 $ 0.51
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------
Common shares used in the
calculations of earnings
per share:
Basic 87,857 79,972 87,634 79,831
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------
Diluted 92,257 83,503 91,823 83,140
-------- -------- -------- --------
-------- -------- -------- --------


JABIL CIRCUIT, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(In thousands)
(Unaudited)

February 29, August 31,
2000 1999
------------ ------------
ASSETS
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 56,612 $ 125,949
Short-term investments - 27,176
Accounts receivable - Net 379,223 261,078
Inventories 353,326 217,840
Prepaid expenses and other
current assets 24,129 14,794
Deferred income taxes 14,227 13,896
------------ ------------
Total current assets 827,517 660,733

Property, plant and equipment, net 439,879 353,522
Other assets 40,470 20,786
------------ ------------
$ 1,307,866 $ 1,035,041
------------ ------------
------------ ------------

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS` EQUITY
Current liabilities
Current installments of long
term debt $ 8,333 $ 9,610
Short-term debt - 21,501
Accounts payable 427,863 300,093
Accrued expenses 59,917 59,186
Income taxes payable 10,863 20,511
------------ ------------
Total current liabilities 506,976 410,901

Long term debt, less current
installments 128,333 34,712
Deferred income taxes 21,232 10,199
Deferred grant revenue 3,443 1,798
------------ ------------
Total liabilities 659,984 457,610
------------ ------------

Stockholders` equity
Common stock 88 87
Additional paid in capital 306,746 296,396
Retained earnings 341,590 281,166
Cumulative translation adjustment (542) (218)
------------ ------------
Total stockholders` equity 647,882 577,431
------------ ------------
$ 1,307,866 $ 1,035,041
------------ ------------
------------ ------------

[NoamX]

Nach den (wieder einmal) hervorragenden Quartalszahlen (Umsatz und Gewinn jeweils
+50% gegenüber Vorjahr - Quartalsumsatz jetzt 840 Mio USD, Gewinn 33 Mio USD, hebt Bear Sterns sine Kursziel auf 110 USD.

Das Einzige, was den Kurs noch unten hält, ist wohl die Tatsache, daß heute alle Unternehmen, die Gewinn machen, irgendwie suspekt sind.

NoamX