NFS - mein alter Liebling, und ich steige jetzt wieder ein... - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

eröffnet am 29.01.04 17:11:26 von
neuester Beitrag 13.06.08 12:56:47 von

ISIN: TH0083B10Z10 | WKN: A2N5QR | Symbol: NFPH
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29.01.04 17:11:26
National Finance, fuehrende Finance Company Thailands, ist derzeit deutlich unterbewertet. Der Vogelgrippen-Kurseinbruch macht den Kauf jetzt umso attraktiver. ICH DECKE MICH EIN, und habe mit NFS bisher immer dick gewonnen!

Gruende und Quellen:

1. NFS hat sich extrem gut entwickelt, aber die Thai-Hausse kaum mitgemacht

2. Vom Zwischenhoch bei 42 cents ist man auf 31 cents abgesackt - albern, bereits in einem Zwischenhoch 1999 ist NFS auf 75 cents hochgeschnallt.

3. NFS wird nun UNTER BUCHWERT gehandelt und zu KGV 2004 von unter 8. Die Peer Group zu Preis-Buch von ca. 2, und KGV um 15.

4. NFS waechst schneller und hat eine staerkere Bilanz als die Banken-Peer Group

5. Eine Fusionswelle unter kleineren Banken kommt nach Thailand, und NFS hat den hoechsten Streubesitzanteil und ist am staerksten unterbewertet.

6. Die Thai-Wirtschaft waechst um >7%, trotz Vogelgrippe, die in ein paar Wochen vorueber sein duerfte und bisher nur ein paar Huehnerschlaechter und mit Kot spielende Jungsn befallen hat.

7. Der 2003-Gewinn stieg um 55% auf 2,7 Mrd. Baht, im letzten Quartail um >100% gegen Vorjahresquartal, was auf sich beschleunigendes Gewinnwachstum schliessen laesst.

8. Der Euro ist zum Baht Rekord-ueberbewertet, das wird sich abbauen.

AKTUELLE ANALYSE, ZU EINEM VOR EIN PAAR TAGEN (vor der Grippe) UM mehr als 10% HOEHEREN KURS:

National Finance`s (NFS) 2003 unreviewed results again surprised us. The finance company`s net profit increased 55% from Bt1.7bn in 2002 to Bt2.7bn in 2003. Strong earnings growth was due to both net interest income from hire purchase loan and positive operating results from all of the company`s subsidiaries. In 4Q03, net profit increased 26.3% q-o-q and 101% y-o-y.
In 2004, NFS will perform well in line with economics expansion, especially in hire purchase business. Additionally, NFS subsidiaries, including its brokerage business, insurance and AMC, will continue to generate earnings for NFS. Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) also foresees no problems for NFS in merging with NBANK under the new finance sector master plan as NBANK already has a large capital base.
The most important thing that NFS is liked because its price is relatively cheap when compared with its peers. Currently, NFS is trading at 1.03x of 2004 projected PBV.
Given the strong financial results and positive outlook, a recommendation is changed from HOLD to BUY with readjusted price target of Bt21.5 based on a 1.3x projected 2004 P/BV.
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) 19 January 2004.


REUTERS 19.1.04:

- Shares in top finance firm National Finance PCL (NFS.BK)
could rise after it reported an annual 55 percent rise in 2003 net profit due to strong auto hire-purchase business and a booming stock market.


NFS ist eine von 9 ausgewaehlten Thai-Aktien, die auf einer staatlich gesponserten Roadshow in London, Singapur und New York internationalen Anlegern vorgestellt werden:

26 January 2004
c) 2004 Thai News Service

Section: SET Announcement - The SET starts out the year with an international roadshow in conjunction with the MoF, the BoT, and Credit Suisse First Boston Securities (Thailand). Nine listed companies in the Financials Group-AEONTS, BBL, KK, KTB, KTC, NFS, SCB, SCIB, and SPL-will meet foreign institutional investors in Singapore, the UK and the USA starting 26 Jan.

President of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), Mr. Kittiratt Na-Ranong, disclosed that the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the Bank of Thailand (BoT), the SET and Credit Suisse First Boston Securities (Thailand) will jointly hold "Thailand`s Financial Sector: Regulatory and Competitive Evolution" from 26th to 31st January 2004 in Singapore, London and Boston to present and inform institutional investors about the Thai economy, financial institutions` development plans and the attractiveness of the Thai stock market. H.E. Captain Suchart Jaovisidha, the Minister of Finance, will be leading the team with senior executives of the MoF, the BoT, the SET and the nine listed companies.

"From the success of the SET`s two roadshows to the UK and USA last year, we are certain that this roadshow will also attract interest from institutional investors. This year the organizing team has invited over 60 top-level executives of the mutual funds, the fund managers, and leading institutional investors in Singapore, the UK and the USA, e.g. Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Merrill Lynch Investment Management, and Deutsche Asset Management. These are large-scale institutions, with billions of dollars under their management, so we will have them meet one-on-one with our nine listed companies. This, we believe, will help the institutional investors acquire the information they require to base their investment decisions and to see the potential returns from investing in the Thai market," Mr. Kittiratt said.

The market capitalization of these nine listed companies was 524,077.37 million baht, accounting for 53% of that of the Financials Group (as of 22 Jan. 04). Similarly, their trading turnover is significant: recorded at 62,703.38 million baht or 32% of the Financials Group`s turnover (1 - 22 Jan. 04). These nine listed companies are Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Pcl. (AEONTS), Bangkok Bank Pcl. (BBL), Kiatnakin Finance Pcl. (KK), Krung Thai Bank Pcl. (KTB), Krungthai Card Pcl. (KTC), National Finance Pcl. (NFS), Siam Commercial Bank Pcl. (SCB), Siam City Bank Pcl. (SCIB), and Siam Panich Leasing Pcl. (SPL).
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29.01.04 17:34:46
#1
WKN ?
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29.01.04 18:04:14
hi informator,

good points..
NFS ist unterbewertet. doch die korrektur am SET ist, so vermute ich, noch nicht vorbei. nach der fulminanten hausse in 03 könnte die zeit für eine mittelfristige korrektur gekommen sein. das mindest-retracement liegt bei 680 punkten. aber auch ein rückgang bis 590-600 zähler im zuge einer weltweiten korrektur ist vorstellbar...

vor jahren las ich mal, dass irgendeine schweizer adresse bei nfs eingestiegen sei. weist du darüber näheres?
was hälts du von KTB?
gruss
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31.01.04 09:39:25
WKN 882419

Schweizer Adresse eingestiegen - weiss ich nicht. wird aber von UBS empfohlen, und hat ein joint venture mit Zuerich Financial.

Retracement: bin mir nicht so sicher, die wirtschaft boomt fast wie in China, und zumindest Aktien wie NFS sind noch billig.
ich denke, dies ist das Vogel-Retracement, und wird bald vorbei sein.
Avatar
01.02.04 00:45:28
schön das der informator wieder da ist!!! Gehe auch von langfristigen Steigerungen NFS `s aus. Vogelgrippe wird uns aber wohl noch ca 30 Tage beschäftigen. Danach tippe ich auf SET 900 bis Jahresende!!
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01.02.04 15:02:55
"1. NFS hat sich extrem gut entwickelt, aber die Thai-Hausse kaum mitgemacht"

Zur Verdeutlichung hierzu mal der Chart:


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02.02.04 11:04:45
Aua, das gab heute ja ne volle Breitseite.

:(
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02.02.04 14:54:17
gute gelegenheit, NFS ist von der Vogelscheisse operativ weder direkt noch indirekt betroffen.

ich glaube auch, dass sich das bald wieder legt.

Betroffen sind neben den Huhn-Aktien auch Tourismus-Aktien


gefallen tut mir der chart Nummer 6, da sieht man, wo NFS nach ein paar Boom-Jahren hingehen kann (Zeitraum 1987-1994, schoen, nicht?)
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04.02.04 06:03:20
nun merkt der Markt, dass Vogelmist wenig Einfluss auf NFS hat, Rebound auf derzeit 15,2 Baht.

Ich rechne in diesem Jahr mit NFS in der oberen Haelfte der 20er, und mit einem starkeren Baht zum Euro, d.h. insgesamt mit NFS bei ueber 50 Eurocents.

Downside-Risk ist hier extrem gering.
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04.02.04 07:37:13
So sei es.

:D
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04.02.04 08:31:40
Hi,

Ein paar News zu NFS:

Tuesday February 3, 3:24 PM
National Finance sees 2004 profit rising
By Arada Therdthammakun

BANGKOK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - National Finance PCL , Thailand`s largest finance firm, said on Tuesday it expects a higher 2004 net profit than last year due to stronger loan growth on the back of a booming economy.

Managing Director Bundit Cheevadsanarak told reporters the company hoped to lend 54.5 billion baht ($1.4 billion) in its auto-hire purchase business this year, up 12 percent year on year, to meet strong demand from car buyers.

"Our profit will definitely be better than last year as our loans are growing," he said without giving a specific forecast. "We will also focus on lending to used car customers."

The company made a net profit of 2.67 billion baht in 2003, a 55 percent rise year on year, helped by a 90 percent rise in its hire purchase revenues. Analysts polled by Reuters Research forecast a net profit of 2.23 billion baht for 2004.

National Finance is the top finance company with group assets of 168 billion baht ($4.3 billion). Its close rivals are Tisco Finance and Kiatnakin Securities .

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the economy to grow seven percent this year, which would make it the fastest rate of growth in Southeast Asia, despite the rapid spread of bird flu in Asia.

Thais took advantage of rock-bottom interest rates last year and bought cars and motorcycles, pushing up auto sales a year-on-year 30.2 percent. They are forecast to grow a further 10.7 percent this year.

BOND ISSUE

Bundit also said National Finance subsidiary Thanachart SPV 01 Co planned to issue 12 billion baht of five- to seven-year bonds this year under a securitisation programme.

"The bond issues will be used to buy some of National Fiannce`s hire purchase contracts, which will enable the company to reduce risks and expand lending," he said.

National Finance had outstanding hire purchase loans of 62 billion baht at the end of 2003.

Bundit said the bonds would be issued in several tranches with the first three billion baht bonds to be sold this month and the rest would be decided later.

Thanachart has said the three billion baht bonds, to be offered to institutional investors, will have a maturity of five years.

National Finance also plans to issue up to six billion baht of bonds, but the issue has been delayed since August due to market volatility. The issue is part of a plan announced in March to sell up to 33 billion baht of bonds for expansion.

Bundit said National Finance`s planned bonds would be put on hold for now. He did not elaborate.

At the midday break, National Finance share were up 1.4 percent at 14.30 baht, while the overall Thai stock market was down 0.34 percent.

The stock rose 26 percent last year, underperforming a 117 percent gain in the SET index. ($1 = 39.19 baht)
Avatar
04.02.04 21:32:05
Hat jemand eine Erklärung dafür, warum NFS den starken Anstieg des SET nicht mitgemacht hat? Gerade für NFS wäre es doch wie in früheren Zeiten typisch gewesen z.B. gegenüber den anderen Bank überproportional zu steigen

Hier mal der Vergleich

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SET50&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=N…

:confused:
Avatar
04.02.04 22:40:04
Also ich weiß nicht wie oft über diese Aktie schon geschrieben wurde, dass sie unterbewertet sei, dass sie diesen und jenen Trend nachzuholen hat.
Auch heute hinkt sie im Finanzsektor hinterher.
Das ist und bleibt ne langweiler Aktie, obwohl sie so gute Fundamentals hat.


Aber wie oft diese Aktie hätte schon steigen sollen......


Da gibts bessere Aktien im Finance Sektor die auch richtig partizipieren, wenns denn mal nach oben geht.
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04.02.04 22:43:43
Die wird schon kommen, wenn das Wachstum weiter stimmt.
KGV und Dividenrendite werden sich durchsetzen, auch wenn`s manchmal Jahre dauert.
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04.02.04 22:46:47
Früher oder später wird sie das nachholen. Und so lange gilt es abzuwarten. Ich könnte mir vorstellen das das schneller gehen wird als viele glauben.
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05.02.04 07:06:18
Vorerst bleibt sie aber der underperformer.

:(
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05.02.04 10:43:55
@ Icebear / Handbuch

ich habe mit NFS mehr verdient als mit allen anderen Aktien, der "Langweiler" hat fast 1000% gemacht in 9 Monaten von Sept 98 bis Mai 99, und da habe ich genau zum biligsten Zeitpunkt gekauft.

Der "Langweiler" hat sich auch von Sept 01 - Maerz 02 verdreifacht, auch da war ich auf den Punkt genau dabei, mit bis zu >700000 Stueck.

Danach hab ich noch mit kleineren Positionen um 100000 Stueck einige Aufs (und keine Abs) mitgenommen.

Ich rehcne damit, dass NFS in Eurocents sich verdopplen wird.

Der Gewinn/Aktie wird in 2004 UEBER 2 BAHT liegen, der Buchwert bei 16 Baht, der Kurs sollte gegen 25-30 Baht laufen, auf der Basis konservativster Ratios.

Dazu kommt Merger-Phantasie (merkt euch meine Worte), und weiter starkes Wachstum.

Aktien mit solchem Wachstum sind meist eher zu KGVs von 20-30 bewertet, das waeren dann ja 40-60 Baht, also > 1 Euro.

Da kann der Langweiler hinfliegen, ohne angreifbar hoch bewertet zu sein.
Avatar
05.02.04 11:04:39
Hi,

liest sich gut, das alles, welche Dividenrendite hat das Teil und wann zahlen die Dividende, weiß das jemand ?

ToM !
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05.02.04 11:31:53
Danke Informator.

Bin auch schon seit 0,18 Cent dabei. Es schmerzt eben nur zur sehen, wie am SET alles steigt - bis auf nfs. Die Unterbewertung besteht ja nicht erst seit einer Woche.

Nfs ist inzwischen meine viertgrößte Depotposition und ich habe auch nicht vor auszusteigen.

Mögen Deine Kursziele in Erfüllung gehen. Mir solls recht sein.

:cool:
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05.02.04 12:39:05
@informator

Damals als sie und viele anderen so hoch stiegen war ich auch investiert in nfs, 1000% wars nicht aber 100 allemal, sowei ich mich erinnern kann.

Aber jetzt......

Aber ich wünsche natürlich allen die nfs im depot haben, dass sie bald aufwacht.
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05.02.04 17:48:33
icebear:

1000% waren es von Sept 98 bis Mai 99

heute ist es einfach nur die am meisten unterbewertete Aktie in thailand, nach unten herrlich abgesichert, bestes Risk-Return-Verhaeltnis.

ich rechne mit +70-100% von meinem diesmaligen Einstieg bei 30-31, langfristig noch mehr.
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05.02.04 20:35:55
Nichts für ungut, aber mir kommt das hier so vor, als ob jemand seinen Schrott versucht hochzujubeln, um noch ein paar arme Seelen zu finden, die ihm das Zeugs abnehmen. Wenn ich mir die riesen Umsätze von früher mit den mickrigen paar Stückzahlen heutzutage so ansehe, sagt das doch alles :(
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05.02.04 21:33:01
hey donmuang,

die weide ist dort am fettesten, wo noch kein schaf gegrast hat.. oder: die weide steht wieder voller saft und kraft..
sei froh, dass dir jemand eine derart gute empfehlung gibt.. volumen ist kein indiz für qualität..
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05.02.04 22:07:19
Das Volumen ist außerdem okay, oder meintest Du ernsthaft das Volumen an den deutschen Börsenplätzen?! :rolleyes:

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06.02.04 07:49:15
Also wer diese Aktie vor exakt 2 Jahren gekauft und hat und sie immer noch hält, dem kann nur schlecht werden.
Klar das man da jedesmal sagt,,,bald geht sie hoch,,sie steht so gut da...

Heute bis zur Mittagspause ist sie ja wieder ganz schön abgerutscht.

Ich gaub sie nutzt lieber immer die wenige Luft nach unten, als die viele Luft nach oben die sie hat.
So wie schon seit laaanger Zeit...

Manche warten 5 Jahre bis sie erwacht und verdienen nichts dran bis dahin, manch anderer macht aber in 5 Jahren viel mehr und springt dann auf den Zug nfs.

Langweileraktie seit langer Zeit
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06.02.04 10:33:55
ich ghee immer rein und raus, habe das im detail beschrieben, und halte den aktuellen zeitpunkt fuer einen super einstieg, eben gerade weil der kurs den SET extrem underperformt, die reale Situation von FS sich aber hervorragend entwickelt hat.

Der CEO hat fuer 2004 Gewinne von DEUTLICH UEBER 2 BAHT angekuendigt, das ist KGV unter 7, bei starkem Wachstum, und bei mittlerweile hohem KGV der anderen Thai-Werte.

Das ist ja bald so pervers unterbewertet wie deutsche Aktien im Maerz 2003. Sowas baut sich ab!
Avatar
06.02.04 11:37:01
:( :( :(

KBANf.BK KASIKORNBANK-F 56.98 -2.6%
KBAN.BK KASIKORNBANK 55.00 -5.2%
NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 14.80 -4.5%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.80 -5.7%
^SETI THAILAND SET 711.15 -3.2%
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06.02.04 19:47:59
Kauf geplant ab 0,27 abwärts, hab mal einen Chart gezeichnet bei TI

http://www.de.tradesignal.com/default.asp
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06.02.04 20:06:09
@Shinga

Na, wenn das mal den Limit nicht etwas zu tief lieg.

:cool:
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10.02.04 07:53:47
Geiler Wert.

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 14.80 -2.0%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.90 -1.3%
^SETI THAILAND SET 737.00 +0.7%

:(
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10.02.04 19:34:26
Was machen die wohl, wenns am SET mal richtig kracht, dann gibst die wieder zum halben Preis von heute
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10.02.04 21:47:19
@Singha

Was für eine Frage.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Dann kaufe ich mir noch einmal ein dickes Paket dazu. NFS hätte dann ein KGV von unter 4.

:D
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11.02.04 07:43:43
mit NFS kann man gut schlafen.

Welche liquide Thai-Aktie ist billiger (KGV 7, Preis-buch 0,9, gesundes Wachstum ??)
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13.02.04 17:29:42
Ziemhlich hohes Volumen heute, weiß jemand was da los ist???
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19.02.04 19:38:34
Hallo Informator,
hast du eine Quelle, von wo man sich Geschäftsberichte etc. von NFS runterladen kann ? Besten Dank für deine Tips zu fundamental unterbewerteten Aktien/Anleihen, eine echte Bereicherung für das Board.
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20.02.04 06:57:41
@Singha

Jetzt dürfte Deine Einstiegsmarke bald erreicht sein.

:mad:
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23.02.04 12:00:30
:( :( :(


NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 14.10 -2.1%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.10 -2.1%
^SETI THAILAND SET 724.86 -0.5%
Avatar
26.02.04 11:40:30
Heute ausnahmsweise mal gegen den Trend im grünen Bereich.

KBANf.BK KASIKORNBANK-F 48.00 -4.9%
KBAN.BK KASIKORNBANK 47.50 -5.0%
NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 14.80 +5.0%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.80 +5.7%
^SETI THAILAND SET 697.92 -1.0%

Gibt es news?

Dafür zerlegt es jetzt meine Kasikorn den zweiten Tag in Folge.


:(
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26.02.04 22:57:35
kbank möchte angeblich auch ins leasing geschäft...

leasing scheint doch so attraktiv zu sein, daß begehrlichkeiten geweckt werden.
Gutaufkurze und mittlre sicht, schlecht auf lange sicht, eben das schicksal vieler Boom-Märkte.

Übernahme von tisco? nfs? Beide heute kräftig gestiegen.

----------------------------------

UPDATE:Thai Kasikornbank To Raise Cap, Expand Services
BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--Thailand`s third-largest commercial lender Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK.TH) said Thursday it will raise its capital to finance its venture into new finance services such as leasing and hire purchase lending.

The bank said its board approved a plan to raise its registered capital by 6.5 billion baht ($1=THB39.26), by issuing up to 650 million new shares through a public offering. The bank`s registered capital will rise to THB30.49 billion from THB23.99 billion.


"The main reason for the recapitalization is that we see opportunities to enter new businesses which will drive the bank`s growth in the future," Admit Laixuthai, the bank`s chief investment relation officer, told Dow Jones Newswires.

In a statement, the bank said the capital increase aims at strengthening its financial status and preparing the company for greater competition following the implementation of the financial sector`s new master plan.

The recently announced plan calls for further consolidation in the industry, prompting a wave of merger activity among smaller players.


Acquisition Likely Underway

Analysts said Kasikornbank is likely raising funds to prepare for an acquisition of some other financial institution as its current capital base is adequate to facilitate normal business growth.

They also noted that the new shares could be issued for a possible share swap deal with other institutions. Although Kasikornbank`s new shares are set to be sold via a public offering, the board is authorized to change details regarding the offering as it deems appropriate.

"This round of recapitalization will likely be for an acquisition deal. There`s no other good reason for the bank to raise additional capital at this very moment," said Kavee Chukitkasem, banking analyst at Capital Nomura Securities.

Among the possible takeover targets, TISCO Finance PCL (TISCO.TH) is widely tipped to be Kasikornbank`s prime target, with its clean balance sheet and positive business prospects.

TISCO Finance is the country`s second-largest finance company, with a substantial portfolio in automobile hire purchase lending. Kasikornbank currently owns a 3.8% stake in TISCO Finance.

However, the bank wouldn`t confirm whether it has plans to acquire TISCO Finance.

"At present, we are studying several ways to expand our businesses but so far we don`t have any specific (acquisition) target yet," said Adit.

Dilution concerns dragged shares of Kasikornbank down by 5% Thursday to THB47.50 at the market`s close. On the other hand, speculation that TISCO Finance may be the bank`s takeover target sent the finance company`s stock soaring 8.1% to close at THB30. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed 1% lower at 697.92 points.

The recapitalization plan will be considered at a shareholders` meeting scheduled on April 2.

The bank`s board also agreed to wipe out all of its THB65.15 billion accumulated losses, paving the way for a dividend payment. The bank said it will transfer its legal reserves and share premiums to offset the losses.
Avatar
27.02.04 11:23:35
Das ich das noch erleben darf.

KBANf.BK KASIKORNBANK-F 49.12 +6.2%
KBAN.BK KASIKORNBANK 51.00 +7.4%
NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 15.30 +3.4%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.43 +4.1%
^SETI THAILAND SET 716.30 +2.6%

:laugh:
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27.02.04 13:24:11
Bei der National Finance ging es satte 4,05% auf 14,43 Baht nach oben, plant des Landes größte Finanzgesellschaft doch ihre National Securities Brokereinheit noch dieses Jahr an die Börse zu bringen.
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27.02.04 20:29:15
Nach all den Jahren endlich ein Licht!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sollte nun tatsächlich die Aufholjagd von NFS beginnen??
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27.02.04 20:50:31
:laugh: :cry: :laugh:
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28.02.04 10:06:57
Mal wieder den Wald vor Bäumen nicht gesehen:
http://www.nfs.co.th/investor_e.html
Avatar
01.03.04 07:44:56
Der Brokerarm von NFS wird an die Boerse gebracht, wird ein nettes IPO!

Der Markt reagiert positiv, da der Brokerarm wohl weit ueber Buchwert gehandelt werden wird. Ausserdem kommt Geld in die Kasse ohne Verwaesserung bei NFS selbst.

NFS ist und bleibt krass unterbewertet.

Mal sehen, ob es zu Uebernahmen kommt. Viele Beobachter rechnen mit einer Uebernahmewelle in Thailands Finanzsektor (Lizenzen von Banken und Finance Companies werden vereinheitlicht). Selbst wenn NFS nicht das target sein sollte, werden Uebernahmen die Kurse treiben.

Ich wuerde NFS akquirieren, denn da bekomme ich THB15,50 Buchwert fuer meine THB15,30 und die "Bank an sich" umsonst dazu.
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01.03.04 12:15:00
gerade BUY-Analyse zu NFS von KGI Securities gelesen.

Die rechnen mit Gewinnanstieg, so stark dass wir in 2006 bei KGV 5 landen!

- spottbillig bewertet

- Kursziel kfr 20 Baht (>40 Eurocents)

- mit dem IPO von NFS Securities wird abgeraeumt

- Kerngeschaeft waechst rasant, zunehmend wird NFS aber auch zur einer vollwertigen Bank, dadurch bald niedrigere Refi-Kosten
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01.03.04 20:45:23
Hallo zusammen,
ich habe mir inzwischen auch den Geschäftsbericht Q42003 durchgelesen. Dabei ist mir aufgefallen, daß NFS in 2003 anscheinend 1Mrd Baht an stillen Reserven in der "specific reserve" aufgebaut hat, und jedes Jahr beabsichtigt, diese (steuerbegünstigten und Kapital bildenden) Reserven weiter auszubauen, oder habe ich da was falsch verstanden ? Wenn dem so wäre, würde das ein implizites KGV von 5,5 bedeuten.
Könnten mir die Thailand-Experten sagen, ob diese Reservenbildung auch bei anderen Thai-Banken schon angelaufen ist ?

Aus dem Q4 Bericht:
2.3 Allowance for doubtful accounts
The Company revised its reserve policy guidelines at the end of the second quarter of
2003. The specific reserve percentage for normal loans will be increased to be higher
than the minimum rate required by the Bank of Thailand (BOT)
. Some of the general
reserve will be transferred to the specific reserve (the Company has a reserve policy to
buildup the general reserve up to 2% of total loans (excluding financial institutions) by
the end of 2002 and should to increase 0.5% each following year to insure against
potential future risk. At the end of 2003, the Company had such reserve of 2.5% of
total loans). This enables the Company to count the additional specific reserve as a
part of the second tier capital according to the BOT’s rule. Moreover, it is also a
taxable expense . This transfer caused the general reserve total to decrease and the total
for the specific reserve to greatly increase.

Table shows the allowance for doubtful accounts
(Unit: Baht million)
Dec 31, 03 %:NPL Dec 31, 02 %:NPL
Hire Purchase 2,032 447.6% 433 138.3%
Others 2,735 26.7% 1,612 16.3%
General Reserve 1,423 - 1,528 -Total
6,190 57.8% 3,573 35.0%
Avatar
01.03.04 21:15:38
Habe noch eine Analyse u.a. zum Thai-Automarkt von Dez.2003 gefunden,vielleicht interessant im Zusammenhang mit den Leasing Geschäften von NFS:


Thailand’s economy continues to power ahead and is on course to register real GDP growth of 6.4% in
2003. As 2003 draws to an end, and the government is indicating that the best is yet to come and that
growth rates will accelerate in 2004 and 2005, there are also concerns that the economy is overheating and
that a “bubble” may already have started to develop. Property market speculation is rampant, and the stock
market has risen by over 80% since January. The property and consumption boom of the last two years is
also raising concerns over the rising levels of mortgage and personal credit (in the same way as in South
Korea), especially if there is any upward pressure on interest rates. In the last five years, progress in
cleaning up the banking sector has been disappointing and the banking sector’s ability to withstand another
crisis is highly questionable. On the plus side, the recovery in exports and appreciation of the baht should
alleviate some of these concerns. Also, the boom of the last two years has resulted in significant
improvements of government finances, the current account position, foreign exchange reserves and external
debt levels. Indeed, all major credit rating agencies have been upgrading Thailand’s sovereign debt rating in
recent months. We are expecting growth of 6.6% in 2004 and 6.1% in 2005.

In Thailand, total vehicle sales rose by 30% to just under 424,000 units in the first 10 months of 2003,
underpinned by high consumer confidence, low interest rates, new model launches and replacement demand
for vehicles purchased during the 1995-96 boom period. Passenger car sales rose by nearly 40%, thanks to
strong demand for the newly launched compact cars by Toyota and Honda. Sales of commercial vehicles,
which accounted for two thirds of all sales, rose by 26%. We are projecting total vehicle demand of just
under 521,400 units for the whole of 2003. This represents growth of over 27%, compared with the 2002
level of 409,300 units, and an upward revision of fewer than 13,000 units, compared with our August 2003
forecast of 508,300 units.

Growth from a higher base level will be difficult to achieve in 2004. Monthly sales during the last eight
months of 2003 already indicate that sales are stable and so, in 2004, it will become harder to achieve higher
year-over-year growth from current levels. We forecast that total vehicle sales will grow 11.4% to over
580,000 units in 2004. In the medium term, there is still considerable scope for growth in motorisation rates,
especially outside the greater Bangkok area. In addition, rising incomes, reduction in taxation levels (and
thus in vehicle prices), new model launches in the passenger car, SUV and pick-up segments, and promotional
incentives should support the market. The pre-crisis peak sales level of 590,000 units should be
easily surpassed in 2005. We expect sales to reach 827,000 units in 2008.

In 2003, Toyota’s sales are expected to be nearly 54,500 units higher than Isuzu’s sales and over 118,000
units higher than Honda’s sales. In the passenger car market, Honda was running neck and neck with Toyota
in 2001, but Toyota has raced ahead in the last two years, thanks to the popularity of the Corolla in 2002 and
the Vios in 2003. Isuzu is the clear leader in the LCV market, but Toyota has not lost too much ground since
Isuzu launched the Dmax in 2002. Toyota’s launch of the new Hilux (IMV) in the third quarter of 2004 will
boost its sales in 2005.

Thai production will reach 766,000 units in 2003 and will exceed 1 million units in 2006
? The favourable combination of a strong domestic market, rising exports to other ASEAN countries and the
relocation of pick-up production from Japan continues to support healthy development in Thailand’s
automotive industry.
In an Asian context, China continues to pose the most significant challenge to the Thai automotive industry,
especially in terms of competing for investment.
Production in Thailand—unlike in China, where most of the current phase of investment has been targeted at
meeting the expected growth in domestic demand—has a better balance between production for domestic
demand and production for export. The Thai industry is also better integrated into the regional and global
strategies of major OEMs and suppliers as well as foreign OEMs who have full control over their Thai
operations. However, Thailand will continue to be handicapped by lower scale economies, especially in the
passenger car segment.
? In 2003, domestic demand and exports are supporting a boom in production. Production rose 30.6% (over
125,000 units) to 535,500 units in the first nine months of 2003, compared with just under 410,000 units in
the same period in 2002. During the same period, exports rose by 33% (42,800 units): from 128,900 units
in 2002 to 170,900 units. Domestic sales were thus responsible for two-thirds of the increase in production.
We are forecasting total vehicle production of just over 766,000 units in 2003. This is 44,000 units higher
than our August 2003 forecast of 722,000 units and represents an increase of around 181,000 units (or 31%)
over 2002. In addition, we estimate kit production of around 24,000 units in 2003, mainly at Auto Alliance.
While the main driver has been domestic sales several companies are also enjoying higher exports. These
include Honda, which started exporting the New City (Fit Aria) to Japan, the Middle East, Isuzu, which has
stepped up exports of the Dmax pick-up and Toyota, which has started exporting the Vios. At GM Thailand,
higher exports of the Dmax pick-up has not compensated for the reduction in exports of the Zafira.
Ford/Mazda exports are slightly higher thanks to commencement of exports of the Everest. In 2004, exports
will receive a major boost when Toyota relocates all Hilux pick-up production to Thailand.
Passenger car production—supported by a surge in demand for the Honda New City and the Toyota Vios,
combined with exports of these models—is forecast to rise by 52% (around 88,000 units) to around 256,000
units. LCV production is forecast to rise by 21% (around 88,000 units) to just under 497,000 units.
? In 2004, production is forecast to rise to over 850,000 units and it is expected to cross the 1-million-unit
threshold in 2006, helped by Toyota’s relocation of all Hilux pick-up production from Japan to Thailand.
Vehicle production should reach almost 1.26 million units in 2008. In addition we estimate kit production of
100,000 units in 2008.

Greater links between Thailand and India
? A Free Trade Agreement with the United States could herald another era for the expansion of Thai exports.
One positive development from Thailand’s point of view is the possible start of vehicle exports (especially
of pick-ups) to the United States, although it still is too early to speculate on the details.
India and Thailand Free Trade Agreement
? In the medium and long term, the FTA will encourage greater integration of the Thai and Indian vehicle and
supply industries. The implementation timetable was unclear at the time of writing, but it appears inevitable that
duties on trade of CBUs, kits and components between the two countries will fall. There are question marks over
several key issues, such as the process to ensure that “rules of origin” are established, transfer pricing and control
of CBUs into India via Thailand. Note that the tariff on CBUs in Thailand is much lower than it is in India. The
Thai industry is dominated by pick-up production, while India has much larger car and commercial vehicle
industries. A Free Trade Agreement between the two countries, if and when it is finally implemented, will
represent an opportunity as well as a threat. There is potential for a win-win situation but the details need to be carefully managed.
Avatar
02.03.04 11:08:40
NFS BOOMT!!

fast 14% in den letzten Tagen!

aber immer noch spottbillig, was auch gestrige KGI-Analyse bestaetigt hat. Ich sehe NFS langfristig bei 30 Baht = 60 Eurocents (eher 70 Eurocents, da der US$ und noch mehr der Baht steigen wird zum ueberbew. Euro), der Gewinn geht ja von 2 Baht in 2003 auf an die 3 Baht in 2006, mit 30 Baht haben wir immer noch ein moderates KGV.

@ andichan:
der Automarkt wird in Thailand weiter boomen, damit auch NFS, die in Thailand MARKTFUEHRER bei Autofinanzierungen sind.
General Motors kommt auch gross nach Thailand, Thailand wird immer mehr zu Asiens Auto-Zentrum, und ide Autos werden nicht nur exportiert.

Reserven fuer NPL: kann man nicht als stille Reserve sehen, eher als Vorsorge fuer Problemfaelle. NFS waechst stark, muss daher vorsorgen, auch wenn das Neugeschaeft bisher kaum NPL gebracht hat. Zeigt aber, dass man vorsorgt, falls das Kreditklima mal wieder kaelter werden sollte.
Avatar
02.03.04 21:15:38
Informator,

das mit den NPLs und deren notwendiger Abdeckung durch Reserven ist schon klar, nur hat NFS diese Rückstellungen ja innnerhalb eines Jahres über die gesetzlich vorgeschriebenen 2% auf 2,5% erhöht, alles über 2% darf wie Rücklagen als Tier-2-Eigenkapital (das sind für mich stille Reserven) angerechnet werden. Die NPLs bei den Leasing Geschäften scheinen getrennt davon gut abgedeckt zu sein,selbst wenn man das rasante Wachstum berücksichtigt. Ich war jedenfalls angenehm überrascht, als Neuling bei Thai-Banken habe ich da "sportlichere" Bilanzen erwartet.

Habe ich richtig verstanden, daß NFS auch im Aufkauf und Verwerten von NPLs tätig ist ? Das bedeutet wohl auch eine große Hebelwirkung abhängig von der Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Dann mal "Toi,Toi,Toi,Thailand"!
Avatar
03.03.04 03:10:25
@ andichan

Tier 2 = stille Reserven?

fuer "stille Reserven" gibt es keine Legaldeifnition, von daher kannst du es so sehen. Ich persoenlich zaehle die "Polster-Wertberichtigungen" nicht dazu, sondern sehe dies als Polster fuer evtl. in Zukunft etwas hoehere NPL aus Autofinanzierungen (Grund: im Moment sind die NPL sehr niedrig, im Zeitablauf steigt die Zahl der schwarzen Schafe).

Dieser Anstieg ist aber in meine (und KGI`s) Gewinnprognose einkalkuliert, d.h. ich rechne dennoch mit Anstieg von 2 letztes Jahr auf 3 Baht/Aktie.

Und damit ist NFS gemessen an KGV (derzeit 7, 2006: 5!!!!), Preis-Buch, Wachstum ("PEG-Ratio"), Wachstumspotenzial ("Tier-1" erlaubt Portfolioverdoppelung ohne Kapitalerhoehung!), Phantasie aus NFS-Securities-IPO und den stillen Reserven aus dem fuer 27% gekauften NPL-Portfolio, hoher Marktliquiditaet, gutem Management (ich kenne die Leute seit langem, Krisen-Survivor Nummer 1 in ganz Thailand neben Land&Houses, Phoeniz aus der Asche, schaut euch den Lfr-Chart an und bedenkt dass fast alle Finance Companies Pleite gegangen sind) GROTESK-PERVERS UNTERBEWERTET!!!!

Es gibt einfach keine rationale Erklaerung fuer diesen Kurs, und das wird bald korrigiert!

Ich habe mit NFS mehr verdient als mit jeder anderen Aktie (insbes Sept98-Mai99, aber auch danach mehrmals) und habe auch diesmal wohl wieder den richtigen Einstiegszeitpunkt (30 Eurcent) erwischt. Zwar nicht mehr mit >700000 Stueck wie in den alten Frontschwein-Tagen, aber auch nicht mit Kleckerbetraegen.

Aufkaufen von NPL:

hier liegen in der Tat Milliarden an stillen Reserven, nach ganz klassischer Definition. NFS hat ein Riesenportfolio in Krisenzeiten aufgekauft, zu 27% vom Nominalwert.
Dies sind meist Immo-besicherte Kredite, und die Immos boomen bekanntlich wieder.
Avatar
03.03.04 10:04:00
@Informator

"Imos boomen wieder"..

Von daher hast Du sehr wohl recht. Es ist deshalb auch besonders unverständlich, wie so ein Wert derart unterbewertet sein kann. Das zweite Standbein, Autoleasing boomt ja auch noch.

Da gibt es dann noch einige kritsche Stimmen, die das Land sehr wohl auch kennen und nicht an den ganzen Boom glauben, weil er doch sehr populistisch, insbesondere durch Taksin, hochgejubelt wird. Vielleicht ist das die Erklärung, warum NFS das Mauerblümchen macht.

Aber das sahen wir ja an der Börse öfter, überall.(Areal)

LH hängt ja auch an den knapp 12 Bath fest seit geraumer Zeit, trotz Dividendenerhöhung. Müßte m.M.n. auch bei 18 stehen, aber nix da.
Avatar
04.03.04 16:27:19
unser Schatz wird mit 32 weit unter Wert gahandelt, sollte 33 zu 34 stehen
Avatar
05.03.04 11:01:21
hi informator,

wäre es möglich, dass du die KGI-Analyse für NFS mal reinstellst, oder den Link angibst. Ich wäre dir sehr dankbar, hab nämlich auf der KGI-Homepage vergeblich gesucht. Vielen Dank. Gruss
Avatar
05.03.04 18:47:42
Jacomo, in einem der KGI Reports war was drin:

http://www.settrade.com/S17_ResearchPaper.jsp?txtBrokerId=IP…
Avatar
06.03.04 14:03:33
jacomo,

die KGI-Analyse habe ich aus dem Bloomberg, habe keinen link.
Avatar
06.03.04 19:51:38
Avatar
07.03.04 11:24:49
@bmann025

Die Dividende von NFS kann sich ja sehen lassen, ebenso von LH

Die Story von DTAC gefällt mir dennoch besser.

Hab von allen 3 genug:D
Avatar
08.03.04 20:15:19
@alle,
verfolge NFS schon seit Jahren (und die Aussagen von Informator genau so lange). Meistens (wie auch jetzt) bin ich seiner Meinung: Bei 0,30 € schien mir ein Wiuedereistieg klug. Kursziel >0,40 €.
Wie hoch ist eigentlich aktuell die Dividende ?

mfg
DT
Avatar
09.03.04 07:39:33
@DeepThought

steht in #57

:cool:
Avatar
17.03.04 20:06:24
@Handtuch

danke, es sind ziemlich exakt 5 %. Das is doch was.
Avatar
21.03.04 18:46:40
Auto market grew further ; almost 100,000 units sold in first 2 months

(16/03/2004)

The domestic Thai automobile market continued to be very active with 93,167 cars sold during January and February this year, representing a significant growth rate of 20.25% over the amount of 77,479 units sold during the corresponding period last year. Specifically the February sales topped 49,044 units, a rise of 11.15% from January.

As for the sales performance of auto companies during the period, Toyota remained at the top, with 35,207 units sold, or 26.51% increase over last year’s 27,829 units. Isuzu came second with 22,922 units, increasing by 17.23% over last year’s 19,553 units. Honda was third with 11,647 units sold, which represented an increase of 5.88% over 11,000 units last year. Next was Nissan with sales of 6,355 units but faced a decline or minus 1.15% growth rate compared with last year’s 6,429 units. Mitsubishi came fifth with 5,694 units sold, a rise of 52.82% over 3,726 units last year.

It is noteworthy also that sales of big truck (2 tonnes up) staged a strong growth performance particularly by market leader Hino, which recorded sales of 1,226 units, a dramatic growth of 117.76% over last year’s mere 563 units. Spectacular economic expansion have spurred the use of trucks for merchandise transportation and thus higher demand for new trucks.
Avatar
23.03.04 06:52:14
Hi,

Dividende für 2003 -> 0,60 Baht/Aktie -> ~ 4% Div.Rend.

Gruesse
ThaiClaus

Tuesday March 23, 10:48 AM
Thai Natl Fin Bd Oks To Transfer Business To Thanachat Bk
BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--National Finance PCL (NFS.TH), Thailand`s largest finance company, said Tuesday its board has approved a plan to transfer all of its financial business to its wholly-owned unit, Thanachart Bank PCL (NBANK.TH).

The business restructuring is to comply with the country`s financial master plan, launched early this year by the central bank, National Finance said in a filing to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.


The master plan calls for consolidation among players in the financial system in order to increase competitiveness.

The company said its restructuring plan will be implemented once it has received approval from its shareholders, who will meet on April 28. The restructuring is expected to be completed in 2005.

Under the plan, National Finance will transfer its finance business to Thanachart Bank. But outstanding hire-purchase debtors will remain with the company until they have made the full installment payments.

National Finance will return its financial business license within one year after the shareholders and the Finance Ministry approve its business restructuring plan.

"Thanachart will be the only financial institution under National Finance`s group," the company said, adding that National Finance will transform itself into a holding company, holding shares in each of the companies under the group at no less than 50%.

Thanachart Bank`s Senior Vice President Anuwat Luengtawekul told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview that the bank`s asset size will more than double after taking over all banking-related businesses from its parent.

As of end-January, the assets of National Finance stood at 117.88 billion baht ($1=THB39.491), while the assets of Thanachart Bank are around THB58.60 billion.

National Finance had said earlier that if its operations were combined with Thanachart`s, the bank would be the same size as Bank of Asia PCL (BOA.TH), a unit of ABN Amro Holding N.V. (30110.AE). Bank of Asia currently ranks 8th among 13 commercial banks.

Separately, National Finance`s board also approved paying a THB0.60 dividend for 2003 to its shareholders
Avatar
23.03.04 09:53:18
@ThaiClaus

Für Festgeld gibts die Hälfte:D

Aber langsam könnte doch mal unser Mauerblümchen erwachen.
Avatar
23.03.04 15:55:44
Hallo,

dann weisst du sicher auch wann die Divid. gezahlt wird.

Gruss
Avatar
24.03.04 10:36:30
Plans restructuring of finance business group

Trading View ( Seamico )

24 March 2004
NFS
Financial Highlights
YE Dec Net profit EPS Growth PER PBV DPS Yield
(Bt m) (Bt) (%) (x) (x) (Bt) (%)
2001 550 0.41 nm. 36.1 12.2 1.2 0.00
2002 1,723 1.29 213% 11.5 13.6 1.1 0.50
2003 2,669 2.00 55% 7.4 14.4 1.0 0.60
2004F 2,694 2.02 1% 7.4 15.8 0.9 0.81
2005F 2,961 2.22 10% 6.7 17.2 0.9 0.85

To propose a plan to restructure its finance business group to shareholders.

NFS’s board will propose a plan to restructure its financial institution business
group at a shareholders’ meeting on 28 April, which would involve two steps:
1. Changing the business of two companies in the group, NFS and NBANK, to a
one-presence financial institution to comply with the BoT’s Financial Sector
Master Plan. Details of the operations will be as follows:
− Once the restructuring plan is approved by shareholders and the
Finance Ministry, NFS will transfer its finance business (i.e. deposit
service, hire-purchase loan) to NBANK to continuously operate the
business.
− Outstanding hire-purchase receivables will remain with NFS until
debtors pay back all installments.
− NFS will return its finance business licence within one year after
shareholders and the MoF approve the restructuring plan.
2. After restructuring, NFS will be the parent of the NFS group in the form of holding company, which will hold at least a 50% stake of each company.
As a result of restructuring, NFS will become a fully integrated financial service provider.

However, we are concerned about NFS’s ability to compete with large banks in providing retail loans, as banks plan an aggressive focus on this retail lending
segment. Together with our expected flat net profit for 2004, we recommend ACCUMULATE.


Plan to list National Securities (NATSEC).
National Securities (NATSEC) plans to issue 200m new ordinary shares (par Bt1)
via an IPO sometime in 2Q04 according to its SET listing plan. As the parent company, NFS will dispose its 266.63m shares of NATSEC to NFS’s shareholders at a ratio of one NATSEC share per five NFS shares. The offering price will beequivalent to the IPO price. The allocation will likely result in short-term speculation to receive the right to subscribe the shares.
Avatar
24.03.04 10:47:29
@odhuber

Dividenabschlag (XD) am 1. April - 0,60 Baht/Aktie
Payment Date steht noch nicht fest.

Grusse
ThaiClaus
Avatar
24.03.04 11:11:38
Hi,

NFS - Bericht von Heute von Kim Eng - Kursziel 21,25 Baht.

http://kelive.kimeng.co.th/kelive/UploadPdfs/200403241231504…

Gruesse
ThaiClaus
Avatar
24.03.04 13:52:12
Der Herr Generaldirektor kauft in letzter Zeit locker ein :)
Das sollten wir auch tun.

Grüsse
ThaiClaus

SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 05/02/2004 04/02/2004 200,000 14.73 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 11/02/2004 10/02/2004 50,000 14.90 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 18/02/2004 13/02/2004 150,000 14.80 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 02/03/2004 27/02/2004 100,000 15.50 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 17/03/2004 16/03/2004 200,000 14.88 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 19/03/2004 18/03/2004 100,000 15.20 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 23/03/2004 22/03/2004 140,000 14.95 Buy
SUPHADEJ POONPIPAT Reporter Common share 24/03/2004 23/03/2004 60,000 14.80 Buy
Avatar
24.03.04 19:08:17
Danke für die Info,

Bis die Dividende hier gutgeschrieben wird
gehen sicher noch ein paar Tage vorbei.


Gruss
Avatar
26.03.04 08:56:39
Hi,

Die neue Struktur von NFS. Ein Berichtet von SCBS. Der einzige Broker mit einem Sell rating.

NFS outlines reorganization and subsidiary NBANK capital raising plan

NFS
Price: Bt15,10
SELL
Impact: Neutral
Kittima
(66-2) 263-3555 ext. 1830
kittimas@scbs.com

Thanachart Bank (NBANK)’s board of directors passed a resolution to issue 689.8 mn new shares
to existing shareholders at Bt10/share. The board of directors will determine the allocation ratio,
offering period, subscription payment period and the closing date of the shareholder registration
book later. The capital increase is being undertaken to support the NFS group`s finance business
reorganization and support the group’s business growth. The reorganization procedure is given as
follows:
- After the Group`s plan to reorganize financial institutional business is approved by the
shareholders and the Ministry of Finance, NFS will transfer all financial business, such as
accepting deposits, granting hire-purchase credit etc., to NBANK to continuously operate
the business;
- NFS will maintain its existing hire-purchase portfolio until all loans in the portfolio are paid
in full and all car registrations returned to customers; and
- After having received the approval from the Ministry of Finance for the Group`s
reorganization plan, NFS will return the finance license to the appropriate authorities
within 1 year.
- NBANK will afterward be the only financial institution in the Group, operating all types of
finance activities, including hire-purchase, as legally allowed for commercial banks by the
BoT.
The reorganization is expected to be completed by 2005.
Comment:
• NFS holds 98.89% of NBANK.
• This capital increase is being done to support the group’s reorganization to comply with the
Financial Master Plan. NFS will transfer its finance business to NBANK and become a holding
company.
• NFS has sufficient capital funds to support a Bt6.89bn capital injection into NBANK and this
capital raising is largely a way to transfer capital from NFS to NBANK. If NFS invests Bt6.89bn in
NBANK, its capital adequacy ratio at YE2003 will decrease from 11% to 10%. However, NFS will no
longer be a finance company and will have no need to comply with the BoT’s capital adequacy ratio
requirements.
• NBANK currently has a capital adequacy ratio of 27%. The injection of Bt6.89bn capital will raise
its capital adequacy ratio to 46%.
• This will have no effect on our projection for NFS nor should it result in a capital raising exercise
at NFS.
NFS is almost fully valued at the current price and we maintain SELL.
Avatar
01.04.04 11:59:24
:( :( :(

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 15.60 +2.0%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 15.60 +3.3%
^SETI THAILAND SET 671.92 +3.8%

Selbst der SET läuft besser.

:rolleyes:
Avatar
02.04.04 11:18:19
34 cent in Muenchen, endlich verlassen wir das dreckige Unterholz der niedrigen 30er und gehen zum naechsten Milestone, der 40!

Im Fruehjahr 2002 habe ich meine 700000 NFS, damals meine groesste Depot-Position, zu Kursen um 47-48 cents verkauft, und unser nun viel profitablerer Liebling sollte diese Werte (mit heute >2 Baht Gewinn pro Aktie !!!)mindestens wiedersehen.

Seit meinem juengsten Kauf hat NFS den fallenden SET outperformt, ist von 30-31 auf heute 33-34 gestiegen, SET im gleichen Zeitraum m 30 Punkte runter.
Avatar
03.04.04 09:34:04
fast 10% an einem Tag in Thailand, auf 16,9 Baht!

Die 20 Baht sehen wir bald, und ich rechne mit einem fallenden Euro, das geht ueber 40 Eurocents!

Mittelfristig spricht nichts gegen KGV 15, und das waeren 30 Baht. Bei einem sich voll normalisierenden Eurokurs (ich nehme EUR-USD 1,10 und THB-USD 38 an) sind wir bei ueber 70 Eurocents. KGV 15 ist keine Bubble, und das Pres-Buch-Verh waere dann unter 2, also nicht ueberzogen hoch und unter dem einiger anderer Banken.

Zudem wuerde NFS damit nur den SET-Anstieg in 2003 nachholen.

Auf jeden Fall werden die, die den Einstieg bei 30 mitgemacht haben, viel Freude haben.

Mein groesster Depotwert z. Zt. Magna Pacific, WKN 901889, DVD / Filmrechte in Australien, waechst pro Jahr um 100%, zahlt Dividende, hat $26m in Cash fuer eine Akquisition (und hat klargemacht, dass man ein profitables Akqui-Objekt sucht), die m.E. das KGV auf 7 oder 8 herunterbringt (das "PEG", d.h. das KGV gemessen am Wachstum duerfte dann so ziemlich Weltspitze sein), zweiteichster Milliardaer Australiens, Pratt, hat sich mit knapp 20% beteiligt, seine anderen Beteiligungen wie FUN.AX sind in den 1-2 Jahren nach Beteiligung um mehrere 100% gestiegen. M.E. wuerde das Announcement einer Akquisition den naechsten Kursschub ausloesen.
Avatar
03.04.04 10:14:45
hey Informator

Dann wollen wir mal hoffen, nichts übersehen zu haben.
Stimme Dir zu, was die Bathentwicklung angeht, sie paßt zur wirtschaftlichen Stellung Thailands.
Die Unterbewertung von NFS seh ich auch so.

so long
Avatar
03.04.04 13:19:22
10% an einem Tag? hab ich was verpasst??
Das wäre ja ausnahmsweise mal besser gestiegen als der SET.

Last Update 05 Apr 2004 - 17:00:49
NFS : NATIONAL FINANCE PUBLIC C
Sign :
Last Change %Change Par Ceiling Floor
16.20 +0.60 +3.85

SET Index
693.12 +21.20 +3.16

aber siehe da,,,nix verpasst

die 8% Die Foreign Anteile werden sich wieder angleichen...
Avatar
04.04.04 05:44:45
NFS-F steht bei 16,90.

Ob sich die NFS-F nach unten oder die NFS nach oben angleichen ist die Frage. Vielleicht am Montag ein paar Satang (= Baht-Cents) nach unten, der faire Wert in Euro ist dann immer noch >34 (heute >35).

WICHTIG: Einer der vielen Gruende fuer meinen Kauf war, dass bei 30 Eurocents (<15 Baht) NFS und NFS-F GLEICHAUF standen!!

seit 1997 spielt der stark varrierende Abstand der local und foreign shares ("foreign premium") eine Rolle bei meinen Entscheidungen. Immer wenn die Aktie schlecht steht, geht das Premium gegen Null, und wenn sie gut steht, erhoeht sich das Premium auf manchmal ueber 20%. Wenn ich bei Null oder fast Null Premium einsteige, habe ich also, was an der Boerse selten ist: einen sicheren Gewinn und kein Verlustrisiko!!!!!
Denn unter null faellt das Premium nie. Zudem verkaufe ich, wenn der Kurs gut steht, und dann gibt es ein Premium, ob 5% oder 20% weiss man nicht, aber dieser Faktor beguenstigt mich mit 100% Sicherheit.

NFS ist die Aktie, mit der ich bisher am meisten gewonnen habe. 2 mal hatte ich >700000 Stueck (1998-99 und 2001-02) und zwischendurch kleinere Trades, jedesmal gewonnen und in den 98-99 und 01-02 Wellen sogar erheblich. Oft (in der 00-01 Phase mit kleineren Positionen) musste man elend lange warten. Aber ich danke NFS,

Zudem kenne ich NFS seit 1998, habe die Kapitalerhoehungen in Q1 98 fuer einen Institutionellen mitbegleitet und konnte sehen, welche Substanz dahintersteckt. Ein paar Monate spaeter habe ich dann dick zugeschlagen, inmitten der damaligen "Weltpanik" (Asien+Russlandkrise). Der Run danach (schaut euch die charts an, NFS +1000% von Sept-Mai) hat mich vom Jungspund zum Investor gemacht (neben NFS auch TFB u.a. Thai-Werte). Hatte im Sept 98 fast mein ganzes Geld in Thai-Aktien gesteckt, mit Broker-Kreditausnutzung bis zur Grenze.

Derzeit ist NFS nach langem Aussetzer (seit Fruehjahr 2002) wieder eine erhebliche Position (aber nicht so viel wie damals)
Avatar
04.04.04 09:09:45
Hallo informator!

Ich bin auch in NFS investiert. Die Aktie bleibt auf längerer Sicht gesehen relativ stabil, wenn der SET nach unten rauscht, aber so richtig outperformed hat sie bei einer Hausse den SET schon ewig nicht mehr.
Mir geht es nicht um Abweichungen für ein paar Taage, die sich dann wieder angleichen, sondern mal um einen kräftigen Anstoss.

PS: Das mit dem Angleichen habe ich daraus geschlossen, dass das Orderbuch der NFS-f so aussah zum Schluss.
Bid
Volume (Shares) Price
10,000 16.40
50,000 16.30
70,000 16.20
Offer
Price Volume (Shares)
16.50 500
16.80 160,500
16.90 189,300

Aber hoffen wir das beste...irgendwann
Avatar
04.04.04 10:06:02
ein paar satang geht es montag erst mal runter, aber der kurs in D mit 34 entspricht ja eher 16,5.

gerade weil NFS so lange udnerperformt hat, ist NFS nun dran fuer die naechste welle nach oben!

in den Zeiten, in denen ich NFS hatte (98-99, 9/01-3/02 und in den letzten wochen war NFS ein absoluter outperformer, und ein hgih-Beta-Wert.

Die underperformance in 2003 kann ich mir nicht erklaeren, aber bietet jetzt die kaufchance.

ein grund war die unsicherheit ueber die restrukturierung der Finance Companies, das ist nun vorbei. NFS ist Vollbank, und die Refi-Kosten sinken, und neue Felder oeffnen sich. Negativ ist aber, dass Banken in den Mietkauf/Leasing-Bereich von NFS vorstossen werden, was dort das Wachstum bremsen wird. Wachstum wird es aber weiter geben, und wir sind bei KGV 7 oder mittelerweile 8.
Avatar
04.04.04 10:43:13
@Informator

Du weisst doch, Konkurenz belebt das Geschäft:D
Avatar
05.04.04 14:56:54
Ein Teil des Premiums wurde heute gleich wieder abgebaut:

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 16.60 -1.8%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 16.40 +1.2%
^SETI THAILAND SET 709.89 +2.4%
Avatar
05.04.04 17:35:25
ja, aber von Null kann es nur nach oben gehen, das passiert auch langsam, und zunehmend, wenn der Kurs an sich steigt.
Avatar
07.04.04 08:53:20
nun sind wir bei fast 17 Baht, 35 cents, 15% hoch seit der Kaufempfehlung.

Und weiter gehts....

KGV 8 ist billig, die Vollbanklizenz ist da, Thailand soll mit 7-8% wachsen, Markt-KGV wuerde Kursverdoppelung bedeuten, Dividnednerendite sichert nach unten ab, Buchwert sichert auch nach unten ab!
Avatar
07.04.04 08:58:39
@Informator

War das das Morgengebet?:rolleyes:
Avatar
07.04.04 11:41:08
Rhum

ja, als guter Moslem werde ich das von nun an 5 mal taeglich hier runterbeten!

bis alle unglaeubigen bekehrt sind!
Avatar
07.04.04 12:00:59
gute Idee

Obwohl ja die Moslems die Angewohnheit haben, sich mit ner Sprechtüte auf dem Moscheenturm bemerkbar zu machen.

So müßtest Du dann in Bangkok auf das ThaiWah Center klettern und dort den Profeten machen, oder?



was hälst Du davon?

Späsgen;)
Avatar
13.04.04 09:20:23
Das meint TISCO zu NFS ( 09.04.2004 )

Grüße
ThaiClaus

NFS
NFS plans to accelerate its banking branch opening and now aims to have 100 branches by year-end (up from 12 previously). An extensive branch network would help expedite funding cost saving and the company would continue to expand aggressively in HP lending to strengthen its size advantage in auto financing market. Although this could help sustain the overall margins in lights of further decline in HP rates, margin pressure from the potential rise in interest rates remains high. Maintain SELL. NFS sees the current auto HP rate being at its bottom and expects prices of car loans to start to pick up in 2H04. The company remains confident that market interest rates would not rise in the next twelve months and that it still has a room to close its asset and liability mismatch position. With this view in place, the company will continue to play aggressively in auto HP as well as push down its funding cost in order to strengthen its dominance in the market to ensure minimal impact from potential entry of larger players. While the company’s funding cost could drop by faster than what we expect, we think that HP rates are unlikely to rise anytime soon given the indirect pressure from sluggish corporate lending market remains high. We maintain our flat earnings growth forecast for NFS for the time being based on a 10bp improvement in NIM projected. The stock was trading close to our ROE/COE based target price of Bt16.8 (1.1X implied PBV 2004F) and we do not see any new catalyst to drive the share price further in the near term, especially with the contribution from its transformation into a full commercial banking remains minimal. Rising interest rates, NPL, and prolonged price competition in auto HP are key risks in investing in the stock, in our view.
Avatar
16.04.04 07:24:24
@ Thaiclaus

1.) TISCO ist NFS HAUPTKONKURRENT!!!!

2.) Tisco schreibt viele positive Dinge und leitet dann ploetzlich daraus ein SELL ab. Man akzeptiert, dass NFS durch 100 neue Filialen und die Vollbanklizenz die Refi-Kosten deutlich SENKEN und die Volumina steigern kann, un dass die NIM = Nettozinsmarge trotz der erhoehten Konkurrenz um 10bp steigen wird.

ZUDEM steigt das Geschaeftsvolumen, da einerseits NFS massive mehr Mittel bekommt (Filialnetz/Vollbank) und der Automarkt weiter rasant waechst. Man ist ja immer noch nicht am Niveau von 1996 angekommen, da ist noch viel Platz!!! Zudem wird Thailand immer mehr zum auto-Produktionszentrum Asiens, viele Auto-Konzerne gehen nach Thailand.

Die staerkere Konkurrenz um diesen Wachstumsmarkt wird NFS Wachstum bremsen, aber nicht auf Null. Dazu kommt das Wachstum in den anderen Geschaeftsbereichen (Bond-Emissionshaus, IPOs, Corporate Lending der neuen Vollbank etc.). Daher erwartet der AnalystenKONSENS auch einen leichten Gewinnanstieg 2004 und etwas mehr in 2005. Und das bei KGV 8!!!!

Heute STEIGT NFS momentan gerade 17,2 Baht = fast 37 Eurocents, und wie ich vor ein paar Wochen bei meiner Kaufempfehlung zu 30 cents gesagt habe, wird NFS den Markt outperformen (seither: +20% bis heute, SET-Index ist "flat"!!)

NFS ist mit KGV von gut 8 und Preis-Buch von ca. 1 immer noch krass unterbewertet und wird weiter deutlich steigen.

37 cents werden bald billig erscheinen. In Zwischenhochs in 1999 und 2002 ist NFS oft in ein paar Tagen hochgeschnellt, auf 70 Eurocents und 50 Eurocents, zu damals objektiv WESENTLICH SCHLECHTEREN ZEITEN UND FUNDAMENTALDATEN!!!!

ein weiterer Kandidat, meine groesste Position, schaut euch meine threads zu Magna an WKN 901889.
Avatar
16.04.04 11:33:11
Hi Informator,

Diese Meinungen von TISCO und SCBS decken sich nicht unbedingt mit meiner Meinung.
Ich bin auch in NFS investiert - da ich, so wie du, glaube, dass sie unterbewertet ist.
Ich poste jedoch alle mir zur Verfügung stehenden Analysen um zur objektiven Meinungsbildung beizutragen. ;)

Grüße
ThaiClaus
Avatar
17.04.04 04:15:43
es kommt Leben in die Bude!!

0,37 und hohe Umsaetze, plus 23% seit Empfehlung, trotz stagnierendem SET!
Avatar
17.04.04 08:04:31
Dabei sind die eigentlichen Käufer derzeit die Thais.

Momentan kein Premium mehr, sondern ein Discount!

:eek: :eek: :eek:

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 17.30 +6.1%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 17.40 +6.8%
^SETI THAILAND SET 712.20 +1.5%

Sieht wirklich sehr gut aus.

:cool:
Avatar
17.04.04 10:58:37
Ja dann war aber der Märschenprinz ein Thai, der sie wach küste:D

2.größte Depotposition:D
Avatar
17.04.04 11:41:07
Bei mir ist es die drittgrößte Position und der größte Auslandswert.

:cool:
Avatar
18.04.04 22:48:27
Ist die Dividende eigentlich schon gezahlt worden ?
Avatar
19.04.04 07:45:49
NFS - Bericht von KGI - Kursziel 20 Baht / LT BUY

Grüße
ThaiClaus

@andichan
Dividende wurde noch nicht abgeschlagen ( wurde am 2.April nicht durchgeführt wie gepostet ) - am 28.04 Hauptversammlung.

http://www.settrade.com/brokerpage/IPO/Research/upload/10823…
Avatar
19.04.04 08:36:37
die KGI-Analyse bestaetigt EPS 2005, d.h. Gewinn ca. 3,5 Baht/Aktie. Das macht selbst zum aktuellen Kurs ein KGV 2005 EIN KGV VON 5 KOMMA.....

und das bei einem Preis-Buch von ca. 1 und bei gesundme Wachstum!!!

Alle diese Parameter sind bei NFS viel billiger als bei den anderen kleineren Finance Companies TISCO und Kiatnakin, und sind auch wesentlich billiger als bei den Banken (bei allen).

Kasikorn und BBL haben Preis-Buch von 2,5, KGVs um 10 und wachsen langsamer.

Seid alle Thai-Warren-Buffetts und kauft das, was schlicht und einfach billig ist.
Avatar
19.04.04 13:22:27
NFS Foreign Shares

Termin für die Dividendenzahlung ist der 28.06.2004.
Avatar
19.04.04 13:31:43
Sector : Finance (Hire-Purchase Segment) Recommendation : Buy
Umesh Pandey

Bualuang Securities said it continues to rate the shares of various hire-purchase companies as buy amid continued rise in the auto sales during this year.

Bualuang says that it believes that most large-sized finance firms will be upgraded to universal banks which will allow them to mobilise lower funding costs from saving accounts to fulfill both existing and new business. Tisco Finance Plc and National Finance Plc are well positioned to be universal banks with their core business of hire-purchase lending and investment banking, whereas Kiatnakin Finance Plc will enjoy the role of debt restructuring and hire-purchase loans, especially in the used car market.

“We rate a long-term investment for Tisco, NFS and KK. For second tier companies with their main business relying heavily on hire-purchase lending, we recommend a Buy for Siam Panich Leasing Plc and Sicco, as dividend stocks.”

The rating comes as Toyota Motor (Thailand) reported that auto sales during the month of March rose 31 percent year-on-year and 11 percent month-on-month. New auto sales grew by 30.6 percent year-on-year and 11 percent month-on-month to 54,418 units in March 2004. Sales reflected strong purchasing power under aggressive promotion, especially from the Motor show and new models launched from Toyota Wish, Honda Jazz and Chevrolet Colorado. Considering 1Q04 against the corresponding period last year, auto sales rose substantially by 23.9 percent year-on-year to 147,585 units. This growth rate of 30.6 percent for 1Q04 remains higher than full year auto sale growth forecast by Toyota Motor (Thailand) of 10-12 percent. Launching new auto models and continuing aggressive promotion will be the crucial factors for fulfilling auto sales this year, especially for pick-up trucks.

Bualuang said that hire-purchase firms still enjoying moderate lending growth in line with the robust growth of new auto sales this year.

“We believe that most HP firms and finance firms should improve their HP loan portfolio by not less than the industry of 20-25 percent but slower than 2003 HP loan growth rate of 72 percent to 138.75 billion baht. Additionally, most leading HP firms have diversified their HP loans into the used car markets in order to maintain profitability in term of sales and net interest spreads. We believe that large finance companies like NFS, Tisco, KK, and SPL will have a stronger competitive edge with lending growth by 20-25 percent against average HP loan growth rate of 50-60 percent last year,” Bualuang said.
Avatar
21.04.04 06:41:52
Wednesday April 21, 9:33 AM
Thai National Finance 1Q Earnings Table

National Finance PLC (NFS.TH) - Bangkok.
First Quarter March 31:
Figures are in baht.
2004 2003
Net Profit THB589,688,000 THB452,612,000
Earnings per share 0.44 0.34
($1=THB39.173)

Management Discussion and Analysis as of the 1 quarter 2004
http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?filename=dat%2Fnews%…

Financial Statements Quarter 1 Mar 31,04(Unreviewed)
http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?filename=dat%2Fnews%…
Avatar
22.04.04 09:27:23
Beitrag Nr. 100 ()
Zur Halbzeit sieht es ja heute mal wieder nicht so toll aus.

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 16.40 -3.5%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 16.30 -3.0%
^SETI THAILAND SET 696.41 -1.5%

:(
Avatar
22.04.04 18:48:31
Beitrag Nr. 101 ()
Stock: National Finance Plc Recommendation: Buy 26 Baht
Umesh Pandey
DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) said yesterday that it continues to rate the shares of NFS with a ‘buy’ rating despite a fall in its first quarter net profits.

For the first quarter NFS’ net profit dropped 27 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 590 million baht. This was on the back of
1) a 9 percent drop in net interest income as yields dropped,
2) a 20 percent decrease in non-interest income as brokerage income fell and portfolio investment gain plunged, and
3) an increase in tax rates.


This has prompted the broker to revise down its 2004 forecasts by 16.7 percent to reflect the poorer-than-expected 1Q04 results.

“Based on our revised forecasts, the company’s net profit should increase modestly to 2.7 billion baht in 2004 and 2.9 billion baht in 2005. Our target price is also revised down from 29 baht to 26 baht (based on 2004 PE of 13x). Despite the downward revision in our forecast, the stock is now trading at an attractive 2004 PE of only 8.4x, falling to 7.8x in 2005. We therefore maintain a BUY rating on NFS. The stock now offers a 55 percent upside to our target price,” DBS said.

NFS whose strength is in the hire/purchase business had about 6.95 billion baht worth of its overall business in this segment, up 12 percent QoQ.

DBS said that it expects NFS’ lending in this area to continue to increase by 30 percent in 2004.

Shares of NFS ended the day at 16.8 baht, so far this year the shares of the company has risen 0.6 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 42.46 percent.


Grüße
ThaiClaus
Avatar
23.04.04 09:44:56
Beitrag Nr. 102 ()
Hi Informator,

Was meinst du zu den Zahlen?

Stock: National Finance Plc Recommendation: Neutral
Umesh Pandey
JP Morgan Securities (Thailand) said it continues to rate the shares of NFS with ‘Neutral’ after the company reported its first quarter results.

NFS reported its 1Q04 net profits at 590 million baht, down 27 percent QoQ and up 30 percent YoY. Earnings for the quarter were above expectations at 29 percent of JPM’s full-year forecast but below consensus expectations at 22 percent of consensus full-year forecast.

“We are maintaining our existing earnings forecasts unchanged. We rate the stock a Neutral, the main attraction being the company’s position as a potential acquisition target given its number one market share in the auto hire purchase segment and relatively low market premium to book value (1.1x for FY04E). The offsetting negative risk is the prospect for a base-effect slowdown in the rate of expansion of the hire purchase book over the next 1-2 years. Our DCF fair value estimate is Bt21.”

Shares of NFS ended the day at 16.2 baht, so far this year the shares have fallen 2.99 percent while in the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 39.57 percent.

Grüße
ThaiClaus
Avatar
23.04.04 10:34:46
Beitrag Nr. 103 ()
@ThaiClaus

Et riecht nach ner Ehrenrunde:O
Avatar
24.04.04 12:54:16
Beitrag Nr. 104 ()
Kursziel UBS von 14 auf 21 erhoeht!

andere Kursziele DBS 26 und JPMorgan 21.

diese Ziele sind nehm ich an fuer die local shares, es kommen evtl noch ein paar cent fuer die foreign hinzu.

ERGEBNIS:
ist nur gegenueber dem sehr starken vorquartal runter, zum vorjahresquartal deutlich hoch.

UBS hat NFS wieder auf buy gesetzt, weil man vom Wachstum der vollbank nun ueberzeugt ist, NFS wird von 7 auf 100 Filialen hochgehen, in thailand sehr lukrativ, denn Personal ist billig, kundeneinlagen zu 1-2% und 4-5% kreditmarge.
Avatar
26.04.04 04:47:46
Beitrag Nr. 105 ()
Kursziel der CSFB auch auf 21 erhoeht und BUY statt NEUTRAL

NFS wird immereinstimmiger als schlicht und einfach unterbewertet angesehen.

Zudem das enorme Wachstumspotenzial der Filialexpansion/Vollbankgeschaeft - von 7 auf 100 Filialen!

UBS nennt NFS nun die "einzige Universalbank Thailands", es gibt derzeit noch keinen, der die Finance-Company und die Bankprodukt-Palette anbietet.

Hauptvorteil der Filialen ist ein Absinken der Refi-Kosten um 1% (Kundeneinlagen statt Geldmarkt), was den Gewinn (bei in Zukunft 200 Mrd. Baht Bilanzsumme) um 1,5 Mrd erhoeht (die anderen 0,5 Mrd bleiben durch andere Vermoegensquellen gedeckt, Eigenmittel+Geldmarkt+Bonds)

Dem stehen Kosten fuer die Filialen gegenueber, aber auch Einnahmen aus dem verkauf der Broker-, Leasing-, Kredit- Versicherungsproukte etc. von NFS in dann 100 Filialen.
Avatar
27.04.04 07:13:06
Beitrag Nr. 106 ()
Langfristplanung von NFS:

Anmerkungen zum Bericht:
Thanachart ist die Banktochter
mit "die Bank" ist in dem Bericht Thanachart gemeint, nicht NFS.
Ticker-symbol von Thanachart ist NBANK

Fazit: Expansion noch deutlicher als bisher genannt, also MEHR WACHSTUM.

Thanachart looking for partners in upgrade plan

Somruedi Banchongduan
THE NATION
23 April 2004
The Nation (Thailand)

Thanachart Bank aims to become a mid-sized bank under the financial master plan over the next three years and is looking for partners to make that happen, the bank`s chairman said yesterday.

Thanachart Bank (NBANK), with total assets of Bt300 billion, received approval from the Bank of Thailand to upgrade from a restricted bank to a commercial entity in March, NBANK and National Finance Plc (NF) chairman Banterng Tantivit said.

The Bank of Thailand approved the move under the financial master plan, which encourages financial institutions to consolidate, Banterng said.NBANK will conduct complete banking operations and hire-purchase business, the chairman said.

According to the plan, NF will become a holding company or a parent company of NBANK. Other subsidiaries, such as National Securities, National Insurance, Zurich National Life Assurance, National Asset Management, Max Asset Management, and NFS Asset Management, will come under the NF banner, he said.

National Securities will be listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) through an initial public offering by July this year, he said.

As a medium-sized bank, NBANK would be more competitive and flexible, targeting a higher market share of up to 5 per cent in the next three years from its current 1 per cent, Banterng claimed.

However, if NF`s hire-purchase businesses were included, NBANK would have total market share of 3 per cent with total assets of Bt200 billion, he said.

By mid-2005, the bank expects to have restructured its organisation with a projected capital increase from Bt6 billion to Bt15 billion, based on an increase in total assets, the chairman said.

The institution will put the recapitalisation idea to shareholders at next month`s meeting, the chairman said.Over the next three years, the number of the bank`s branches nationwide will be increased to 180 from 7, Banterng said, adding that some would only be small sub-branches.

`The holding company will reduce its stake in NBANK to no higher than 50 per cent from the current 90 per cent. The remaining stake is for new partners,` he said, adding that the bank would reconsider the plan after it restructures the organisation.Banterng said details of the plan were likely to be approved by the Finance Ministry by October after the plan is submitted to the Bank of Thailand in June.

NF will then return its finance company licence to the authorities within one year, he said.

He said the bank has free-floating shares - shares traded in the market - amounting to 1 per cent of total shares against the 20-per-cent minimum set by the SET. The bank would later consider whether it would offer more shares to the public, de-list from the equities market, or seek new partners to buy its shares.

After restructuring, 50 per cent of total revenue will come from hire-purchase businesses, while retail and commercial banking will generate 25 per cent each, Banterng said.
Avatar
27.04.04 07:21:41
Beitrag Nr. 107 ()
NFS zaehlt zu den Top 5 Firmen in Thailand im Bereicht Corporate Governance (d.g. Unternehmensfuehrungs- / Management- / Buchfuehrungs- und Trnasparenzstandards)!!

und zwar laut Standard & Poors (siehe unten)

Leute, ich kenne NFS und habe es euch immer gesagt.

Ich bin begeistert von dieser Top-Note von S&P

Top Corporate Covernance sollte gerade in Thailand mit einem FETTEN PREMIUM bewertet werden - NFS aber immer noch nur mit einem Abschlag, einem albernen KGV von 8!!

Thai companies still lack corporate governance disclosure, S&P says

22 April 2004
fnWeb Daily News.

fnWEB - Bangkok - April 22, 2004 -

Thai companies have much to improve to bring their corporate governance disclosures up to international standards, according to a new study of leading international rating agency.

The study conducted jointly by Standard & Poor`s Governance Services and the Corporate Governance & Financial Reporting Centre at the National University of Singapore (NUS) on disclosures by the Thai SET50 Index companies regarding corporate governance practices.

The results of the study, published in a report entitled "Corporate Governance Disclosures in Thailand--A Study of SET50 Companies," singled out the top five companies as "significantly different from the others in the sample".

The five companies include Banpu Public Co. Ltd. (PCL), Electricity Generating PCL, KASIKORN Bank PCL, National Finance PCL, and The Siam Commercial Bank PCL.

"We found considerable variation in the disclosures among the sample of companies," said Calvin Wong, managing director of Standard & Poor`s Governance Services.

"Gauging from the distribution of the scores, there appears to be much room for the Thai companies to improve disclosure of their corporate governance practices," he added.

"The study highlighted 13 areas where top five companies were significantly better in disclosure," said Associate Professor Yuen Teen Mak, Vice Dean of the NUS Business School and Co-Director of the Corporate Governance & Financial Reporting Centre.
Avatar
27.04.04 07:32:04
Beitrag Nr. 108 ()
Heute 3 Artikel zu NFS.

1. der erste zum Quartalsergebnis mit Kommentaren

2. der zweite: NFS wurde von Standard & Poors zu den Top 5 Thailands im Bereich Corporate Governance erklaert. Das ist wichtig in Thailand, sollte vom Markt mit einem fetten Aufschlag bewertet werden!!

3. der dritte: laengerfristige Wachstumsplaene von NFS- bis zu 180 Filialen, 5% Marktanteil im Vollbankberiech (etwa wie die Coba in Deutschland, 5% ist nicht wenig fuer Banken), Synergien mit NFS Toechtern (Versicherung, Broker, Fonds-Management etc.) und wesentlich niedrigere Refi-Kosten.

NFS- eine tolle Firma, alles stimmt, zum Billigstpreis!!

siehe in diesme Bericht: fuer dieses Jahr peilt man 3 Mrd Baht Gewinn an, Baht 2,25/Aktie, KGV derzeit laeppische 7 komma... BUY!!

REUTERS: Thai National Finance Q1 profit up, tops forecasts.

21 April 2004

BANGKOK, April 21 (Reuters) - National Finance PCL, Thailand`s largest finance firm, said on Wednesday first-quarter net profit rose 30 percent due to strong auto lending and broker fees, beating market forecasts.

Thais are taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates to snap up cars and motorcycles, driving up auto sales 30.2 percent in 2003 and by a forecast 10.7 percent this year.

National Finance, which has $4.37 billion in assets, reported a group net profit of 589.7 million baht ($14.9 million), up from 452.6 million baht a year earlier.

Analysts, who had forecast a net profit of between 490 million and 496 million baht, said strong consumer spending would continue to boost the sector`s fortunes this year.

At 0515 GMT, National Finance shares were unchanged at 17 baht, while the overall Thai stock market was down a third of a percent.

"The factors that generated growth in net profit were the 75.6 percent expansion of auto hire-purchase business and positive results of subsidiaries," the firm said in a statement.

It said its first-quarter auto hire-purchase revenues rose 70.8 percent on the back of a booming economy. That was despite a hit to consumer confidence from a bird flu outbreak and unrest in the south.

The company said its bank subsidiary, Thanachart, saw a 26 percent rise in net profit to 145 million baht in the quarter, while its brokerage subsidiary generated a 15-fold increase to 141 million baht.

Brokerage firms enjoyed a four-fold increase in average daily turnover on the Thai bourse to 28 billion baht in the first quarter amid a raft of public share sales.

National Finance is forecast to make profit of about three billion baht in 2004, up from 2.67 billion baht last year.

The government expects the economy to grow eight percent this year after 6.7 percent growth last year.
Avatar
27.04.04 09:44:17
Beitrag Nr. 109 ()
Ja, wenn der Gesamtmarkt auch mal wieder in Nordrichtung geht, dürfte es wohl bei NFS auch bisgen klingeln:D
Avatar
28.04.04 06:05:29
Beitrag Nr. 110 ()
hat ja gestern schon geklingelt - das klingeln wird aber bald zu lautem getoese anschwellen!

kann jedem nur empfehlen, meine postings 108 ff. zu lesen, diese einmalige kombination von faktoren:

1. top corporate governance (Standard&Poors-Urteil)
2. fundamental billigst
3. sehr starke und ueberzeugende wachstumsstrategie

wo sonst am Aktienhimmel gibt es diese Kombination??
Avatar
28.04.04 08:45:45
Beitrag Nr. 111 ()
@Informator

so sei es

:kiss:
Avatar
28.04.04 08:54:51
Beitrag Nr. 112 ()
@Informator

Fundamental bin ich voll auf Deiner Seite.

Nur das aktuelle weltweite Börsenumfeld, Stichwort Terror, naher Osten, gibt den Börsen im Moment keine gute Perspektive.
Mittelfristig werden sich jedoch die Fundamentals durchsetzen.
Avatar
28.04.04 10:07:47
Beitrag Nr. 113 ()
vielleicht setzen sie sich auch kurzfristig durch...
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29.04.04 08:30:36
Beitrag Nr. 114 ()
Strong growth in auto loans but merger uncertainties cloud near-term outlook

First quarter earnings of three finance firms under our coverage - NFS, TISCO and KK - were satisfactory. NFS reported better-than-expected net profit of Bt590mn, up 30.4% yoy, due to higher net interest income as a result of robust loan growth. TISCO`s earnings of Bt602mn fell short of our estimate but still surged 65% yoy due to higher net interest income. KK`s net profit of Bt568mn were in line with our forecast. However, we are less optimistic on KK due to its narrower net interest margin and a fall in book value per share due to dilution from its recent warrant exercise.

We are positive on the finance sector in the long term given continuing robust growth in auto loans. Auto sales surged 30.6% yoy in March to 54,418 vehicles. This brings growth in 1Q04 vehicle sales to 147,585 units, up 23.9% yoy, according to Toyota Thailand. The company is forecasting growth in local vehicle sales this year of 12.5% to about 600,000 units.

Short-term sentiment towards finance firms, however, is likely to be muted by uncertainties over their status. Under the new financial master plan, all finance companies have to choose whether to retain their existing status or upgrade to banks. We expect to see more M&A activity in the sector over the next few months as finance firms seek out partners in preparation for a more competitive operating environment.

We maintain a LONG TERM BUY rating for NFS due to its strong loan growth as well as its corporate restructuring plans in response to the financial master plan. We also maintain our ACCUMULATE rating on TISCO but have revised up our fair value estimate to Bt36.75, to reflect its wider net interest margin. We are less bullish on KK and have downgraded our rating from BUY to LONG TERM BUY due to the fall in NIM and EPS dilution.

Finance sector: Quarterly earnings comparison


1Q04
4Q03
Qoq
1Q03
yoy

NFS
590
813
-27.4%
453
30.4%

TISCO
602
604
-0.4%
364
65.2%

KK
568
647
-12.2%
414
37.2%

Total
1,760
2,064
-14.7%
1,231
43.0%


Source: KELIVE Research estimates

Finance sector: Valuation & recommendation


Current share
Fair value
Potential upside
Recommendation


Price (Bt)
Price (Bt)
to fair value


NFS
16.30
21.25
30.37%
LONG TERM BUY

TISCO
31.25
36.75
17.60%
ACCUMULATE

KK
40.50
55.75
37.65%
LONG TERM BUY


-----------------------------------------

sieht eher nach mittelfristig aus;)
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29.04.04 13:53:59
Beitrag Nr. 115 ()
Nochmal zu den Dividenden Terminen:

In this regard, the closing date of the register book to suspend the share transfer for receipt
of dividend payment was scheduled for .Wednesday, May 14, 2004., from 12.00 noon onwards.


The payment of dividend to the holders of ordinary shares and preferred shares will be made at
the equivalent rate of Baht 00.60 (Sixty Satang) per share on Thursday, May 27, 2004.



http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?filename=dat%2Fnews%…

Grüße
ThaiClaus
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10.05.04 10:27:06
Beitrag Nr. 116 ()
Aua

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 15.00 -6.2%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 15.00 -6.2%
^SETI THAILAND SET 611.26 -4.0%

:( :( :(
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10.05.04 12:15:46
Beitrag Nr. 117 ()
Und es kam noch schlimmer!!!!

NFSf.BK NATIONAL FIN-F 14.80 -7.5%
NFS.BK NATIONAL FINANCE 14.80 -7.5%
^SETI THAILAND SET 605.62 -4.9%

:(
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26.05.04 10:33:33
Beitrag Nr. 118 ()
TISCO zu NFS vom 26.05.2004

NFS
Although NFS’ interest rate mismatch position has gradually been narrowed recently, the potential impact from rising interest rates on its future earnings remains high, in our view.
NFS’ asset and liability duration mismatch has been lowered to less than one year from almost 1.5 years in the beginning of the year, implying a reducing risk from rising interest rates on overall profitability. However, it would remain tough for NFS to grow expand its lending margin given the market share strategy applied on its core business.-14% The intense competition in auto HP and indirect pressure from the sluggish corporate lending market would continue to weaken NFS’ pricing power in auto HP. Although the industry sees HP rates setting to rise in 2H04, it is less likely that NFS would take the lead in raising prices given its market share strategy. We estimate that the 50bp increase in interest rates in 2H04 would reduce the company’s net profit by 14%, if it happens. Although NFS` banking operations network is expanding at a more aggressive pace, we do not expect its banking subsidiary to contribute much to its future earnings growth as competition on the rising cycle would remain tough for the newly established player. We recommend sell with target price Bt16.80 .
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26.05.04 10:44:17
Beitrag Nr. 119 ()
@ThaiClaus

Wurde ja schon mehrfach in diese Richtung argumentiert.

Bin gespannt, wie Informator es interpretiert.
Im Kurs scheint es ja schon drin zu sein:O
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27.05.04 08:53:53
Beitrag Nr. 120 ()
beim Kurs von 14,6 muss man den rasanten Indexverfall sehen. Seit meinem Kauf ist der SET 100 Punkte runter (15%), NFS gleichauf, und wenn man die Dividende betrachtet sogar im Plus.

TISCO-Analyse: Bei einem Kurs von 14,6 Kursziel 16,8, und dann "sell"?? Macht keinen Sinn. Zudem ist TISCO der aergste Konkurrent von NFS, die hatten schon immer was zu meckern.

Von all den "Gefahren" in der Welt der letzten Wochen ist die einzig fuer NFS relevante die Zinsseite. Noch tut sich in Thailand aber nichts, und NFS hat das Exposure schon stark abgebaut, und wird wohl bis zum Beginn der Zinsspirale das sogenannte "Fristentransformations-Risiko" gegen Null reduzieren.
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10.06.04 22:36:40
Beitrag Nr. 121 ()
Bualuang Securities 10.06.2004

Sector: Finance Recommendation: Buy/Sell

Commenting after a report by Business Day that the country’s automotive industry would likely slowdown due to the rising oil prices, Bualuang Securities said that it was likely to cut the earnings forecast for various leasing companies but still remained bullish on the sector.

The broker said that according to Toyota Motors (Thailand), new auto sales in May declined by 4 percent M-o-M but rose by 15 percent Y-o-Y to 49,276 units. Accumulated auto sales in the first five months (Jan-May 04) increased by 22 percent to 248,176. The management of Toyota Motors (Thailand) believes that new auto sales could reach its target of 600,000 by the year-end, for a 12.5 percent Y-o-Y increase from 2003. This is a conservative target but maybe not conservative enough with high oil prices and interest rate increases that could deter new auto purchases and leases from the second half of this year and next.

The auto giant and economists have said that with oil price up 50 percent since last October to US$ 42 and change and likely to stay in the current US$ 38 ñ 40 range for the foreseeable, auto sales could suffer. The Thai government is lifting its subsidies on gasoline prices which should affect usage and sales and drive new car buyers to economy size vehicles with lower sticker prices. New car buyers may also postpone purchases due to declining economic growth. Auto hire purchase and leasing firms will be adversely impacted from slowing growth in auto sales.

A possible hike in interest rate in the future may also impact most finance & leasing firms have enjoyed their low funding costs and high profitability as evidenced from net interest margins of all 21 fincos, going from 3.07 percent in 2002 to 3.49 percent in 2003.

According to the bank of Thailand, aggregated net loans for the 11 listed fincos rose substantially by 38 percent Y-o-Y in April and 11 percent from year-end 2003 to Bt213bn which was fuelled by a 24 percent Y-o-Y increase in new auto sales during Jan-April 2004. The conservative forecast for new auto sales of 600,000 this year by Toyota Motors (Thailand) is possible if interest rates do not move up and oil prices decline from these high levels.

“We expect that HP loan growth will slow from 60 percent last year to 20-25 percent this year [earlier forecast 25-30 percent], including loans for both used and new car. Slow sales will most likely show up in the second half of this year,” Bualuang Securities said.

Additionally, the broker perceives that slow loan growth next year, could add to price cutting in order for firms to maintain their market shares which will lead to lower interest spreads and profitability.

“Earlier we were looking for price targets of 30-40 percent but now only 10-25 percent upside from current prices. We recommend buy for KK & Tisco because of their loan portfolio diversification, a Trading buy for Sicco and SPL and a sell for NFS, due mainly to the fact that more than 70 percent of its loan portfolio is in new auto hire/purchase lending.”

Shares of KK ended the day at 34.75 baht, so far this year they have fallen 17.75 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 18.1 percent.

Shares of Tisco ended the day at 26.25 baht, so far this year they have fallen 19.85 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 18.78 percent.

Shares of SPL ended the day at 36.5 baht, so far this year they have fallen 2.01 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 14.18 percent.

Shares of NFS ended the day at 14.4 baht, so far this year they have fallen 13.77 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 10.26 percent.

Shares of Sicco ended the day at 7.95 baht, so far this year they have fallen 4.79 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares have increased 17.78 percent.
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16.06.04 12:47:23
Beitrag Nr. 122 ()
Hi,

NFS -> niedriges KBV, niedriges KGV -> billig -> KAUFEN ;)

Die Wirtschaft wächst >6,5% ......... auch NFS wird weiterwachsen.....

Grüße
ThaiClaus

Stock: National Finance Plc Recommendation: Switch to other hire/purchase companies

Based on a report by Business Day about National Finance (NFS) announcement that net lending for hire/purchase in the first five months grew by 30 percent, or 22.3 billion baht. The new loans, includes 19.1 billion baht for 42,500 new autos and 3.2 billion baht for 12,800 used cars. The firm targets new hire/purchase lending of 54.5 billion baht this year (132,000 units), comprised of 65 percent in new auto loans and 35 percent for used cars. Its hire/purchase loans represented about 70 percent of total loan portfolio.

“We believe that NFS should hit its target with its pricing strategy and aggressive packaging. Its net lending should reach 112 billion baht, or a 12 percent rise Y-o-Y. We are concerned that trend of rising interest rate and high oil prices will press NFS to squeeze more interest to maintain its hire/purchase lending market shares, leading to less profitability. NFS’s net profit is expected to decline from last year by 28 percent to Bt1.9bn. In addition, aggressive lending will deplete its 10 percent CAR to close to 8.5 percent by year-end (minimum requirement by the BOT at 8 percent),” Bualuang Securities said.

Shares of NFS ended the day at 14.2 baht, so far this year they have fallen 14.97 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares increased 10.36 percent.

Shares of Tisco ended the day at 26.25 baht, so far this year they have fallen 19.85 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares increased 19.84 percent.

Shares of KK ended the day at 34.25 baht, so far this year they have fallen 18.93 percent and over the past 52-weeks the shares increased 16.4 percent.
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23.06.04 20:13:45
Beitrag Nr. 123 ()
Umsatz in Deutschland heute genau 1 Stück, Volumen 0,31 Euro. Anstieg +10,75%. Wer war das?
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06.07.04 21:46:55
Beitrag Nr. 124 ()
Finance firms to see drop in Q2 net profit Published on Jul 7, 2004
Kiatnakin Finance Plc (KK), National Finance Plc (NFS), Tisco Finance Plc and Siam Panich Leasing Plc (SPL) are expected to see a drop in their combined net profits for the second quarter, according to Capital Nomura Securities.

The combined net profits at the four finance and leasing firms are expected to drop 14 per cent from the same period a year ago, said Capital Nomura.

The poor results, which will still net the companies a combined 1.7 billion in earnings in the quarter, come on the heels of a 95-per-cent fall in investment gains this year and dwindling brokerage income from their security house subsidiaries, according to the report.

Total net profit in the second quarter last year was Bt1.9 billion, with Bt2 billion in this year’s first quarter. But combined net profits for the first half of the year should jump to Bt3.75 billion from Bt3.27 billion from the same period a year earlier for the four firms.

The four are due to release their unaudited second-quarter earnings in the next few weeks.

Capital Nomura stated in its report that the sharp decrease in investment gains, following the unsteady stock and bond markets, would be partly offset by a 53-per-cent growth in interest income.

Interest income on car loans, in particular, grew to Bt158 billion from Bt103 billion during the first half of the year. Average daily trading volume among the four firms shrunk 33 per cent in the January to March period, from Bt28.4 billion to Bt19.1 billion.

Capital Nomura expects SPL to be the best performer in the second quarter, with a jump in second-quarter earnings to Bt260 million from Bt182 million in the second quarter of 2003. Earnings in the first quarter were Bt253 million.

The company’s first-half net profit growth would be better than the other firms, the report said.

Net income in the first six months should shoot up 45 per cent to Bt513 million from Bt353 million from the same period last year.

Tisco’s second-quarter net profit are expected to climb 8 per cent to Bt473 million from Bt440 million in 2003’s second quarter, according to the report, which also predicted it would be the worst performer from first quarter to the second. Net profit in the first quarter was Bt602 million.

Net profit for Tisco in the first six months will climb 34 per cent to Bt1.1 billion from Bt804 million, according to Capital Nomura.

NFS, according to the report, would see its quarterly net profit plunge 34 per cent from the same period last year to Bt498 million from Bt761 million. Its first quarter net income was Bt590 million.

Given an expected slowdown in net profit growth of finance firms this year and the possible drop in the interest rate spreads if interest rates climb, the broker has rated the sector “neutral”.
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06.07.04 22:28:00
Beitrag Nr. 125 ()
der NFS-Gewinnrueckgang kommt aufgrund von "Einmal-Gewinnen" im Vorjahresquartal zustande (bondverkaeufe im Zinstal in Q2 2003). Diese hohen Gewinne waren aber nie eingepreist.

Die Kerngewinne steigen ja laut Analyse weiter (zinsueberschuss).

Selbst wenn der Gewinn wie von Nomura angekuendigt zurueckgehen wuerde, laege das KGV immer noch deutlich unter 10 und der Kurs unter Buchwert.

Die Gewinne aus dem Kerngeschaeft steigen weiter, und das wird sich fortsetzen, da man ja mit dem Vollbankgeschaeft erst beginnt.

Selbst Nomuras Schaetzung fuer H1 2004 (1088 Mio) ergibt annualisiert 2176 Mio, ca. 1,7 Baht/aktie. Der Analystenkonsens liegt bei 1,9 Baht/aktie 2004 und bei ueber 2 Baht 2005. Bei einem Kurs von unter 15 Baht! (Quelle Bloomberg)

Ein KGV von 7 komma (2005) oder 8 komma (2004) und unter buchwert ist nach wie vor viel zu billig.
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07.07.04 09:24:51
Beitrag Nr. 126 ()
Informator mit Quellenangabe, thats new:D
trotzdem immer interessant!
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14.07.04 11:48:57
Beitrag Nr. 127 ()
Frage an Informator: Wieso sinkt der Kurs ? Soll man nochmals nachkaufen ?

Gruss von Balm
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15.07.04 04:41:51
Beitrag Nr. 128 ()
Kauft, kauft, kauft!

Analyse von DBS Vickers (DBS = groesste Bank Suedostasiens aus Singapur, mit Toechtern in allen Laendern)

BUY, Kursziel 24 Baht

Highlights:
- EPS 2005: 2,03 Baht = KGV unter 7 (!!!),
- Buchwert 2005 17,21 Baht,
- man sieht ein KGV 12 und KBV 1,4 (entspricht Kursziel 24 Baht) als konservativ,
- Filialnetz der Vollbank soll auf 180 (von derzeit 7) ausgedehnt werden, also auch mittel- und langfristig hohes Wachstum,
- der Broker-Arm soll in H2 2004 (also bald) an die Boerse gehen,
- Auto-Mietkauf: man will sehr stark im bisher kaum beachteten und margenstarken Segment "Gebrauchtwagen-Mietkauf" wachsen,
- Rueckstellungen fuer faule Kredite ruecklaeufig (die Zahlungsmoral in Thailand scheint gluecklicherweise zur Vorkrisen-Normalitaet zurueckzukehren),
- Kerngeschaeft (Netto-Zinsertraege) steigt stetig, nur der Provisionsueberschuss in Q@ leidet unter dem lauen Aktienmarkt.

Die Kursschwaeche wird mit dem in den letzten Monaten lauen Handelvolumina am SET begruendet. Dies fuehrt auch zu einem leichten Earnings Downgrade fuer 2004 auf 1,84 Baht (KGV 7 komma etwas) und zur maessigen Stimmung fuer Thai-Finanzwerte, was aber laecherlich ist, da dies ein Kurzfrist-effekt ist, der sich im naechsten Bull Run (nach dem Sommerloch?) wieder dreht. selnbst wenn er sich nicht dreht, liegt der Einfluss dieses Faktors auf den Gewinn von NFS nur im einstelligen Prozentbereich.

Dazu kommt die derzeit laecherliche Ueberbewertung Euro-Baht, die den Kauf noch billiger macht.
Avatar
15.07.04 09:39:40
Beitrag Nr. 129 ()
@Informator

NFS ist billig, keine Frage. Ist es der Markt auch, eher ne Frage?

Dazu:

UBS sees value in Thai market

Umesh Pandey
UBS Securities says that it was witnessing “a value” in the Thai market but it still remains “under weight” on the country, saying that the country’s fundamentals may be too strong compared with its regional peers.

“We started the year with an underweight rating on Thailand, but now that the market has come down so much, there are some compelling valuations and our weighting on the country is under review,” Sakthi Siva, managing director and chief strategist for Asia at UBS Securities said.

Thailand’s equity market, which was the best-performing one during 2003, rising more than 116 percent, has been one of the worst- performing bourses during this year. So far this year, it is down nearly 15 percent.

“We are overweight on countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea as they still have a potential for further upside,” she added.

“If I were to buy a market, I would buy markets that have higher potential for growth rather than markets that are peaking as the upside potential would be limited in a market that’s at its peak.”

Siva, who is based in Singapore, said that although fundamentally Thailand’s economy was on a strong footing, the likelihood that there would be much upside when compared with Singapore and Malaysia was limited.

“We are using various methodologies to come to this conclusion and one of the key methods we use is the capex [capital expenditure] to sales ratio, which helps us determine if corporations are over investing or under investing,” she said.

Thailand, according to her, peaked at 39 percent on this scale in 1996, just prior to the economic crisis of 1997, but it stands at around 18 percent. Singapore and Malaysia, she says, are at around 12 to 13 percent and therefore offer a greater upside potential in the near future, adding that a key issue that would help Singapore and Malaysia is their resilience to the three key negative factors that are impacting the global equity markets, namely: 1) exposure to China, 2) rising interest rates and 3) rising oil prices.

“Both these countries, and Thailand to certain degree, are averse to the fallout in China, but the other two issues have less impact on Singapore and Malaysia,” she said, adding that the rising oil prices have helped Malaysia as it is a net exporter of oil, while Singapore’s impact from high oil prices has been very limited.

Her views are that China’s landing would impact regional countries such as Taiwan but that most of the pricing has already been factored in the current prices.

She said that Thailand’s capex to sales ratio is gradually falling to more acceptable levels but valuations that are 17 percent above the fair value, while the rest of Asia remains at 5 percent discount to fair valuation, make the Thai market slightly less attractive.

She says that the key indicators, such as earnings, return on invested capital, Ebit (earnings before interest and taxes) margins, for Thailand were reaching all time high, while for countries such as Singapore only earnings were high.

“With the pick up in the property market expected in Singapore over the next few quarters, I would expect banks to pick up and therefore all this offers a further upside to the earnings in the future, while in Thailand we already have had a 2-year run in the property market,” she added.

“To me, the three markets, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore, are all in the early stages of recovery and are the markets that offer the greatest potential for higher returns in the near future.”

Her recommendation is to hold on to shares in the telecommunication sector, with Advanced Info Services Plc among the top picks, along with semiconductors, steel and, to a certain degree, basic materials, with Siam Cement Plc among the only two Thai companies that make it to the list of UBS’s top recommendations.

UBS recommended investors sell dollars against the Thai baht and the Indian rupee, predicting the two Asian currencies will gain on increasing money flows into local equities.

“Domestic demand remains strong in both economies and inflows into local stocks could pick up,” said Bhanu Baweja, Singapore-based currency strategist at UBS, the world’s biggest trader in the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market.

The baht declined 0.1 percent to 40.71 to the dollar as at 9.45am in Singapore (8.45am in Bangkok) and is down 2.7 percent this year.

Baweja recommended selling dollars against the baht until the rate falls close to 39.75. He said he would stop selling dollars against baht if the rate rises to 41.05.

The baht has gained 0.7 percent in the past four weeks as money managers overseas were net buyers of local stocks every day from June 23 through Thursday, pouring 14.7 billion baht ($360 million) into the country. Investors may need to buy more of the local currencies to pay for these shares. The SET index of stocks advanced about 8 percent.

In India, the rupee close 0.1 percent lower yesterday at 45.69, and lost 1.2 percent in the past month. The country’s leading Sensex index of stocks gained the past three weeks, rising 4.4 percent to 4,944.54 points yesterday.

UBS recommends selling dollars versus rupee, unless the rate rises above 46.15. The bank targets the rate to fall to 44.50.– Additional reporting by Bloomberg.

Finde das zum nachdenken. Deine Meinung bleibt bestehen?
Avatar
15.07.04 10:16:42
Beitrag Nr. 130 ()
By Mek Meksarikul

14 Jul 11:52AM : NFS < Bt14.40 : LONG-TERM BUY > Bottom line to decline from non-interest income

NATIONAL FINANCE PCL
NFS < Bt14.0 >

Recommendation
New : LONG-TERM BUY
Previous : BUY
Fair Value : Bt19.50






Bottom line to decline from non-interest income

In 2Q04, we are forecasting National Finance (NFS) to realise a bottom line net profit of Bt500mn, down 34.3% yoy and 15.3% qoq. The main reason is non-interest income has dropped from a decreasing gain on investments. However, we believe that the net interest income will continually grow in line with automobile hire purchase loans.

Net interest income will rise 48.4% yoy, due to growth in the automobile hire purchase portfolio. NFS has a policy to increase the second-hand automobile portfolio from 15% of the total to 17-20%. This will help maintain the company`s total yield from the price war with competitors, as the yield from secondhand automobiles is relatively higher. As a result, we believe that the net interest margin is likely to remain at the same level.

Non-interest income is likely to decrease 45.1% yoy and 40% qoq, since last quarter, NFS realized an investment gain from selling the bond portfolio. This is a company strategy to adjust bond aging to be less sensitive to interest rate changes, which will affect the bond price in the future.

We believe that the bottom line earnings will not dramatically decrease as the company will not need to set aside provisions for loan losses as high as in the previous quarter.

Given the drop in net profit, we are revising our recommendation to LONG-TERM BUY with a fair value estimate of Bt19.50/share, based on 1.2x 2004F BVPS. Currently, NFS is trading at 0.9x 2004F BVPS, while KK is trading at 1.1x and TISCO at 1.7x.

NFS Quarterly income statement


2Q04F
1Q04
q-o-q
2Q03
y-o-y

Total interest & dividend income
1,521
1,496
1.7%
1,197
27.1%

Interest expenses
-556
-526
5.7%
-547
1.8%

Net interest income
965
969
-0.5%
650
48.4%

Provision for possible loan loss
-250
-435
-42.6%
-68
268.3%

Net interest income after provisions
715
534
33.9%
582
22.8%

Non-interest income
468
781
-40.0%
853
-45.1%

Non-interest expenses
-581
-586
-0.8%
-675
-13.8%

Pre-provisioning profit
852
1,164
-26.8%
828
2.8%

Net profit
500
590
-15.3%
761
-34.3%

EPS (Bt)
0.37
0.44
-15.3%
0.57
-34.3%


Source: NFS and KELIVE Research estimates.

NFS earnings summary


2001
2002
2003
2004F
2005F

PPP
1,427
2,504
3,816
3,931
4,107

Net profit
585
1,723
2,669
2,432
2,579

PPPps (Bt)
1.07
1.88
2.86
2.95
3.08

Eps (Bt)
0.44
1.29
2.00
1.82
1.93

BVps (Bt)
12.18
13.57
14.44
16.26
18.20

DPS (Bt)
-
0.50
0.60
0.73
0.77








P/PPP (x)
13.46
7.67
5.03
4.88
4.67

P/E (x)
32.81
11.14
7.19
7.89
7.44

P/B (x)
1.18
1.06
1.00
0.89
0.79

Dividend Yield (%)
-
3.47%
4.17%
5.07%
5.37%

ROE (%)
3.11%
8.76%
13.04%
11.22%
10.63%


Source: NFS and KELIVE Research estimates.
Avatar
16.07.04 13:52:21
Beitrag Nr. 131 ()
auch diese Analyse sieht das KGV bei 7 komma, und bestaetigt dass Zinsertraege (die hoeherwertige Ertragskomponente) steigen und Einmalgewinne bzw. zykl. Komponenten wegfallen oder sinken.
Avatar
17.07.04 08:56:45
Beitrag Nr. 132 ()
Hi Informator ,
wer ist COM LINK , neuer major shareholder von NFS ?
Wo kommen Gewinne wenn das leasing geschäft auf NBANK
übertragen wurde ?
Was passiert mit dem kapital fond und den zahlungen an
den FIDF wenn die Fin.Lizenz retouniert wurde ?
Avatar
21.07.04 18:22:28
Beitrag Nr. 133 ()
Ergebnis von NFS: ( besser als erwartet )

NFS reports unreviewed/unaudited quarterly financial statements as follows.
National Finance Public Company Limited

Unreviewed/Unaudited
Ending June 30, (In thousands)

Quarter 2 For 6 Months

Year 2004 2003 2004 2003

Net profit (loss) 800,692 760,565 1,390,380 1,213,177
EPS (baht) 0.60 0.57 1.04 0.91




Symbol: NFS
Headline: Management Discussion and Analysis in the half year
Time: 21 Jul 2004 08:42:28


National Finance Public Company Limited
Management Discussion and Analysis in the second quarter and the first-half of 2004

In the second quarter of 2004, the Thai economy settled into more sustainable growth along the
lines of an easing in domestic demand. Economic stability remained under control as inflation
and unemployment continued to register low levels. On the whole, economic conditions
remained supportive of steady growth despite rising oil prices and problems in the southern
provinces.

Private Consumption continued to grow at a healthy rate as the Private Consumption Index
(seasonally adjusted) experienced growth in April and May of 3.5% and 3.7% year on year,
respectively. Growth in the automobile industry continued to expand with automobile sales in
the months of April and May registering 51,315 and 49,272 units, year on year growth of about
24.6 % and 15.2%, respectively.

However, growth of commercial deposits outpaced the credit expansion at the rates of 5.6% and
5.7% in April and May, resulting in a high level of excess liquidity of Baht 999 billion. The
figure is slightly lower than that of the 1st quarter due to current account deficits.

The moderation in economic growth and conflicts in the Southern region of Thailand had an
impact on consumer confidence and business sentiment. The influence of the decline in these
two factors was most evident in equity investments. The Stock Exchange of Thailand recorded
a daily average turnover value of about Baht 19,070.7 million in the second quarter of 2004 a
decline in average value compared to Baht 28,382.3 million in the first quarter of 2004.
However compared to the second quarter last year, which registered a daily average turnover
value of Baht 10,413.4 million, there was an increase of 183% increase.

The Overview

The Group`s consolidated financial statement as of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, shows;
the total assets were equal to Baht 178,476 million. Net profit of the Company and its
subsidiaries for the end of the 2nd quarter were Baht 801 million, which is Baht 40 million
higher than last year, or a 5.3% increase. Earnings before deducting reserve for doubtful
accounts equal Baht 1,198 million and earnings before corporate income tax equal Baht 1,089
million and an increase of 43.3%, which resulted in a higher net profit for the first half of
2004 equal Baht 1,390 million, or a 14.6% increased from the same quarter last year.Earnings
before deducting reserve for doubtful accounts equal Baht 2,536 million and earnings before
corporate income tax equal Baht 1,939 million increased from the same period last year of 5.3 %
and 48.5%, respectively with an earnings per share equal to 1.04 Baht.

The contributing factors that generated growth in net profit for the first half of 2004 were
the 62.7% expansion of the Company`s automobile hire purchase (which resulted in a 64.3%
growth in hire purchase income). The operating results of the Company`s subsidiaries are as
following, Thanachart Bank Plc`s net profit decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period
last year, to equal Baht 251.2 million. National Securities Plc had an increase in net profit of
233.2%, to equal Baht 197.9 million. National Asset Management Co., Ltd. had an increase in
net profit of 91.9%, to equal Baht 36.6 million. National Insurance Co.,Ltd. had an increased in
net profit of 197.4%, to equal Baht 34.9 million. There were still profits equaling Baht 302.3
million and Baht 6.9 million, respectively, for NFS Asset Management Company and MAX
Asset Management Company. Zurich National Life Assurance `s net profit decreased by
108.9%, to equal a loss of Baht 2.3 million.

Financial Status

1. Assets
The Group`s assets grew from Baht 167,748 million at the end of year 2003 to Baht
178,476 million at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, a 6.4% increase. The increase was a
result of the combination of loans and accrued interest receivable which was Baht 112,738
million or 63.2% of the total assets, while the net investment figured to be Baht 50,584
million or 28.3% of all assets, details as follows:

1.1 At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the total outstanding hire purchase loans were
Baht 76,600 million or 64.1% of all total loans which increased from Baht 47,082
million at the same period last year by 62.7%. The new hire purchase loans in the 2nd
quarter of 2004 totaled Baht 13,470 million compared to the total from the same period
last year of Baht 11,315 million, or an increase of 19.1%. The total contracts for hire
purchase as of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004 equaled 243,974 units an increase
from year-end 2003 of 54,344 units and increase from the end of the same quarter last
year 106,211 units.

1.2 The net investment amount at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, was Baht 50,584
million, which was lower than the end of year 2003 by Baht 4,887 million, a decrease
of 8.8%. Thus was a considerable decrease of investment in debt securities from Baht
42,828 million as of the end of 2003 to Baht 35,933 million or a decrease of 16.1%.
This was in line with the Company`s policy to reduce investment in debt securities in
order to decrease the level of risk from the volatility in the interest rate and thus
the Company sold part of its investments in the debt securities. As a result, in the 2nd
quarter of 2004 the Company and subsidiaries has gain on investment amount of Baht
60 million a decrease from last year of Baht 899 million, or a 93.7% decrease. In the
first half of the year the total gains on investment was Baht 335 million, decrease from
the same period of last year of Baht 782 million, or 70.0% decrease. The details are as
follows:

(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % Dec 31,03 %
1) Debt* (Bonds and Debentures) 35,933 71.1% 42,828 77.2%
2) Equity 12,213 24.1% 10,392 18.7%
3) Investment in Receivables Purchased 2,438 4.8% 2,251 4.1%
Total Investment 50,584 100.0% 55,471 100.0%

Note:* Compose of Treasury Bill and BOT Bonds 25.1%, Government Bonds (less than 5
years) 23.1%, Government Bonds (over 5 years) 46.8% and Debentures 5.0% of total
investment in debt securities.

1.3 Property foreclosed at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004 was valued at Baht 6,916
million, an increase from year-end 2003 by Baht 164 million. In the 2nd quarter of
2004, the Company and its subsidiaries had a loss on property foreclosed of Baht 15
million. For the first half of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries had a gain on
property foreclosed of Baht 57 million and a reserve expense of Baht 684 million at the
end of the 2nd quarter of 2004.

2. Quality of Assets

Loans

The Company and its subsidiaries` loans, receivables and accrued interest receivable
increased from Baht 106,243 million at the end of year 2003 to Baht 119,396 million at the
end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, a 12.4% increase.

2.1 The total outstanding loans, receivable and accrued interest receivable are as follows:
(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % Dec 31, 03 %
1) Manufacturing & Commerce 7,774 6.5% 9,008 8.5%
2) Real Estate & Construction 5,655 4.7% 5,573 5.2%
3) Public Utilities & Services 12,091 10.1% 13,382 12.6%
4) Retail
4.1 Hire Purchase 76,600 64.1% 61,923 58.3%
4.2 Housing loans 11,042 9.3% 10,040 9.5%
5) Others 7,102 6.0% 7,273 6.8%
Less Intercompany profits from loans (868) (0.7)% (956) (0.9)%
Receivables transferred
Total 119,396 100.0% 106,243 100.0%

2.2 Non-performing Loans (NPL)

At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries had NPL of
Baht 10,324 million, which is 8.6% of all total loans and receivables. The details of
NPL are as follows:

Breakdown of non-income generating loans

(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % loan Dec 31,03 % loan
Hire Purchase 780 0.6% 454 0.4%
Others * 9,544 8.0% 9,911 9.3%
Total 10,324 8.6% 10,365 9.7%

Note: *The major portion of this NPL is belong to the assets management companies.

The Group`s NPL breakdown by company is as follows:

(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % Group loan Dec 31,03 % Group loan
National Finance Plc. 830 0.7% 496 0.5%
Thanachart Bank Plc. 1,992 1.7% 1,929 1.8%
National Securities Plc. 425 0.3% 429 0.4%
NFS-AMC 6,317 5.3% 6,731 6.3%
MAX-AMC 673 0.5% 692 0.6%
Others 87 0.1% 88 0.1%
Total 10,324 8.6% 10,365 9.7%

2.3 Allowance for doubtful accounts

The Company revised its reserve guidelines at the end of the second quarter of 2003.
The specific reserve percentage for normal loans will be increased to be higher than the
minimum rate required by the Bank of Thailand (BOT). Some of the general reserve
will be transferred to the specific reserve. (The Company has a reserve guideline to
buildup the general reserve up to 2.5 % of total loans by the end of 2003.) This
enables the Company to count the additional specific reserve as a part of the second
tier capital according to the BOT`s rule. Moreover, it is also a taxable expense. This
transfer caused the general reserve total to decrease and the total for the specific
reserve to greatly increase.

As of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company had a reserve for doubtful
accounts in a total of Baht 3,238 million, which was Baht 2,039 million higher than the
specific reserve of Baht 1,199 million required by the BOT. It is a conservative policy
to build up the level of reserves to protect against all types of risk in order to prevent a
serious impact on the operating results which will lead to stability in the long-term
operations of the Company.

The Company and its subsidiaries had a reserve for doubtful accounts in a total of Baht
6,794 million, which broke down into Baht 3,887 million of specific reserve and a
reserve for potential risks in the future equal to Baht 2,907 million

Table shows the allowance for doubtful accounts
(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % : NPL Dec 31, 03 % : NPL
Hire Purchase 1,181 151.4% 873 192.3%
Others 2,706 28.4% 2,667 26.9%
Reserve for Potential Risks 2,907 - 2,650 -
in the Future
Total 6,794 65.8% 6,190 59.7%

The total allowance of the doubtful accounts of the Groups was Baht 6,794 million, or
65.8% of the Group`s NPL. It can be broken down as follows:

(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % : NPL Dec 31, 03 % : NPL
National Finance Plc. 3,238 390.1% 2,599 524.0%
Thanachart Bank Plc. 1,208 60.6% 1,256 65.1%
National Securities Plc. 433 101.9% 434 101.2%
NFS-AMC 1,627 25.8% 1,607 23.9%
MAX-AMC 198 29.4% 204 29.5%
Others 90 104.6% 90 102.3%
Total 6,794 65.8% 6,190 59.7%

The allowance of doubtful debts for Thanachart Bank amounts equaled Baht 1,208
million is specific reserve equaling Baht 393 million and general reserve equaling Baht
815 million.

3 Source of Funds.

3.1 Total Liabilities

The Company and its subsidiaries` major source of funds are mostly from borrowings
and public deposits, which are normal activity in the financial sector. The Company
has consistently grown each year. At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company
and its subsidiaries` borrowing and deposits were Baht 152,344 million which resulted
in a 9.9% increase from the end of year 2003. The details are shown as follows:

(Unit: Baht million)
June 30,04 % % Change Dec 31, 03 %
From Public 135,833 89.2% 10.7% 122,699 88.5%
From Financial Institution 8,910 5.8% 8.3% 8,227 5.9%
From Foreign Country 45 0.0% (51.6)% 93 0.1%
From Debenture 7,556 5.0% - 7,556 5.5%
Total 152,344 100.0% 9.9% 138,575 100.0%

3.2 Shareholder`s Equity

As of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries still had
shareholder`s equity of Baht 19,514 million, a 1.4% increase from Baht 19,247 million
at the end of year 2003. This increase was a result of the performance of the Company
and its subsidiaries.

As of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2004, the BIS ratio of the Company was 11.5%
which was higher than the minimum of 8.0% required by the BOT.

Operating Results of the Company and its subsidiaries for the 2nd quarter and the 1st
half of 2004

The operations of the Company and its subsidiaries resulted in a net profit for the 2nd
quarter of 2004 of Baht 801 million, which is Baht 40 million higher than the same period
last year, or a 5.3% increase. In the first half of 2004, the Company had a net profit of Baht
1,390 million an increase from the same period last year of Baht 177 million, or a 14.6%
increase. The profit before deducting reserve for doubtful accounts equal Baht 2,536
million and profit before corporate tax equal Baht 1,939 million an increase from the same
period last year of 5.3% and 48.5%, respectively. The factors are as follows:

1. Interest and Dividend Income

In the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries generated interest and
dividend income equal to Baht 2,135 million, which was an increase of Baht 165
million or 8.4% increase. For the first half of 2004, interest and dividend income was
equal to Baht 4,165 million and increase from the same period last year of Baht 540
million, or an increase of 14.9%. The three main factors are:

1.1 The loans and deposit income of the Company and its subsidiaries for the 2nd
quarter of 2004 decreased from the same period last year by 17.8%, from Baht 669
million to Baht 550 million. For the first six months of 2004, loans and deposit
income decreased from the same period last year by Baht 186 million or a decrease
of 15.2%, to equal Baht 1,037 million due to the decrease of the amount of lending
and the decrease of the interest rate on lending of Thanachart Bank Plc.

1.2 In the 2nd quarter of 2004, the automobile hire purchase income was equal to Baht
1,275 million, which increased from the same period last year by Baht 472 million
or by 58.8%. This is due to the Company`s growth in the automobile hire purchase
business for both new and used cars. For the first six months of 2004, income from
hire purchase increased 64.3% equaling Baht 2,436 million, an increase from the
same period last year of Baht 953 million.

1.3 In the 2nd quarter of 2004, interest and dividend income from investment was
equal to Baht 310 million, a decrease by Baht 188 million from the same period
last year, which is a 37.8% decrease. For the first half of 2004 interest and
dividend income from investment was equal to Baht 691 million a decrease from
the same period last year Baht 227 million or 24.8% due to the policy to reduce the
portion of the investment in medium to long term bonds as previously mentioned.

2. Expenses on Borrowings

Total borrowing and deposits amount of the Company and its subsidiaries in the 2nd
quarter of 2004 increased from Baht 126,130 million in the same period last year to
Baht 152,344 million, increased by Baht 26,214 million or 20.8%. While the expenses
on borrowings of the Company and its subsidiaries decreased from Baht 846 million in
the same period last year to Baht 828 million, decreased by Baht 18 million, a 2.2%
decrease from the same period last year. For the first half of 2004, total borrowing and
deposits were equal to 1,631 million Baht a decrease from the same period last year 17
million Baht or 1.0% due to the decreased in interest rates.

3. Bad debt and doubtful accounts

In the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries had a reserve for doubtful
accounts amounting to Baht 109 million, a decrease from the same period last year by
Baht 834 million or a 88.4%. For the first half of 2004, the Company had a reserve for
doubtful accounts amounting to Baht 596 million a decrease from the same period last
year Baht 506 million. A specific reserve was provided for in line with the policy of
the BOT equal to the amount of Baht 338 million. In addition to the BOT`s
requirement, another reserve was provided for amounting to Baht 258 million in order
to cover potential risks in the future.

4. Non-interest income

In the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries` non-interest income
equaled Baht 1,117 million, a decrease from the same period last year by Baht 479
million, or a decrease of 30.0%. The most important determinant were

1) The brokerage fees increased by Baht 72 million, or 98.3% increased.
2) Gains on investments that decreased by Baht 899 million, or 93.7% decreased,
specifically the sale of debt (that was previously mentioned in the investment
section)
3) Share of profits from investments accounted for under equity method from
investment in subsidiaries decreased Baht 47 million or 57%.
4) Gain on debt settlement/property transferred in settlement of debts increased by
Baht 173 million or 74.4%.
5) Insurance premium income increased by Baht 54 million or 49.3% increased.

For the first half of 2004, non-interest income amounted to Baht 2,363 million an
increase from the same period last year Baht 44 million or an increase of 1.9%.

1) Brokerage fees increased by Baht 261 million or an increase of 228.7%.
2) Gains on investment decreased Baht 782 million or a decrease of 70.0%.
3) Fees and charges increased Baht 93 million or an increase of 68.6%.
4) Gain on debt settlement/property transferred in settlement of debts increased
Baht 99 million or an increase of 24.9%.
5) Insurance premium income increased Baht 123 million or an increase of 64.9%.
6) Gain on property foreclosed increased Baht 80 million or an increase of 354%.

5 Operating Expenses

In the 2nd quarter of 2004, the Company and its subsidiaries` operating expense was
Baht 1,203 million, increased from last year by Baht 186 million or 18.3%. Thus the
operating expenses that increased were due to personnel expenses and premises and
equipment expenses that increased 27.4% and 31.4%, respectively. Commission
charged on hire purchase and other operating expenses for hire purchase increased
22.3% as a result of the immense growth of the Company`s hire purchase portfolio as
explained previously. For the first half of 2004, operating expenses equaled Baht 2,282
million an increase from the same period last year Baht 445 million or an increase of
24.2%. Commission charged on hire purchase and other operating expenses for hire
purchase increased Baht 95 million or 31.1%. Personnel expenses and premises and
equipment expenses increased 31.7% and 39.1%, respectively. This was a result of the
transition period for the growth of the Company and its subsidiaries in future.

Operating Results of its Subsidiaries for the second quarter of 2004

Thanachart Bank Plc. % of holding 98.9% Net profit Baht 106.5 million
National Securities Plc. % of holding 100.0% Net profit Baht 56.7 million
National Asset Management % of holding 75.0% Net profit Baht 17.5 million
National Insurance % of holding 70.0% Net profit Baht 6.5 million
Zurich National Life Assurance % of holding 50.0% Net loss Baht 21.3 million
NFS-AMC % of holding 100.0% Net profit Baht 295.8 million
MAX-AMC % of holding 58.5% Net loss Baht 1.3 million

Operating Results of its Subsidiaries for the first half of 2004

Thanachart Bank Plc. % of holding 98.9% Net profit Baht 251.2 million
National Securities Plc. % of holding 100.0% Net profit Baht 197.9 million
National Asset Management % of holding 75.0% Net profit Baht 36.6 million
National Insurance % of holding 70.0% Net profit Baht 34.9 million
Zurich National Life Assurance % of holding 50.0% Net loss Baht 2.3 million
NFS-AMC % of holding 100.0% Net profit Baht 302.3 million
MAX-AMC % of holding 58.5% Net profit Baht 6.9 million

Risk Management

The Company`s risk policy and guidelines were approved by the board of directors. The
Company has a department that will enforce and follow up on these risk policies and
guidelines regularly with the correct monitoring instruments. We also analyze all risk-
related management for example credit risk, market risk, interest rate risk, and operation
risk. A risk limit and warning signs are also established that do not allow the operations to
exceed the risk limits set. The board of directors follows up on these risk management
policies monthly.


NATIONAL FINANCE PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED AND ITS SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
BALANCE SHEETS
AS AT 30 JUNE 2004 AND 31 DECEMBER 2003
(Unit : Baht)
CONSOLIDATED THE COMPANY ONLY
30 June 2004 31 December 2003 30 June 2004 31 December 2003
ASSETS
CASH AND DEPOSITS WITH FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1,912,544,089 1,518,694,146 784,684,982 426,602,794
LOANS TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - Net 351,807,313 373,413,088 19,400,000 19,400,000
SECURITIES PURCHASED UNDER RESALE AGREEMENTS 3,650,000,000 800,000,000 - -
INVESTMENTS
Current investments - Net 9,725,489,080 10,418,240,499 235,925,453 5,093,222,110
Long-term investments - Net 39,199,267,665 43,387,043,846 12,426,811,098 16,026,279,894
Investments in subsidiary and associated companies 1,659,026,542 1,665,767,040 13,041,926,320 13,586,153,609
Net investments 50,583,783,287 55,471,051,385 25,704,662,871 34,705,655,613
TRADING TRANSACTIONS WITH SECURITIES COMPANIES 321,925,511 123,541,510 - -
LOANS, RECEIVABLE AND ACCRUED INTEREST
RECEIVABLE
Finance business loans and receivable 117,403,171,304 103,745,187,042 94,198,154,655 80,634,788,865
Securities business receivable 1,844,334,707 2,348,064,479 - -
Total loans and receivable 119,247,506,011 106,093,251,521 94,198,154,655 80,634,788,865
Accrued interest receivable 148,638,258 149,453,715 51,746,286 54,565,862
Total loans, receivable and accrued interest receivable 119,396,144,269 106,242,705,236 94,249,900,941 80,689,354,727
Less : Allowance for doubtful accounts (6,712,864,155) (6,108,249,255) (3,237,867,896) (2,598,662,551)
Less : Revaluation allowance for debt restructuring (297,189,680) (295,477,612) (1,805,844) (1,943,390)
Net loans, receivable and accrued interest receivable 112,386,090,434 99,838,978,369 91,010,227,201 78,088,748,786
PROPERTY FORECLOSED - Net 6,915,982,829 6,751,715,332 3,156,652,907 3,335,756,736
LAND, PREMISES AND EQUIPMENT - Net 475,043,561 421,764,147 239,901,276 207,146,481
LEASEHOLD RIGHT 171,288,451 160,896,797 171,288,451 160,896,797
GOODWILL 5,264,886 5,884,284 - -
AMOUNT BY WHICH VALUE OF INVESTMENTS IS
LOWER THAN BOOK VALUE (13,634,941) (15,304,525) - -
ACCRUED INTEREST RECEIVABLE 275,116,217 454,704,873 98,937,420 193,210,670
VALUE ADDED TAX RECEIVABLE 623,764,140 795,863,351 595,069,744 780,282,603
RECEIVABLE FROM THE TRANSFER OF NON-PERFORMING
LOANS TO TAMC - 189,605,700 - -
OTHER ASSETS 817,187,329 857,647,726 1,084,468,930 366,210,269
TOTAL ASSETS 178,476,163,106 167,748,456,183 122,865,293,782 118,283,910,749


(MRS. SUCHADA PAVANANUNT) (MR. BUNDIT CHEEVADHANARAK)
MANAGING DIRECTOR MANAGING DIRECTOR

UNAUDITED
NATIONAL FINANCE PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED AND ITS SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
BALANCE SHEETS (Continued)
AS AT 30 JUNE 2004 AND 31 DECEMBER 2003
(Unit : Baht)
CONSOLIDATED THE COMPANY ONLY
30 June 2004 31 December 2003 30 June 2004 31 December 2003
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY
BORROWINGS AND DEPOSITS
From public 135,833,319,199 122,699,344,139 91,419,011,170 83,482,335,543
From financial institutions 8,910,212,386 8,226,731,341 4,081,452,685 5,006,485,176
From foreign countries 44,756,159 93,389,892 44,621,048 93,254,782
Total borrowings and deposits 144,788,287,744 131,019,465,372 95,545,084,903 88,582,075,501
SECURITIES SOLD UNDER REPURCHASE AGREEMENTS 500,000,000 3,750,000,000 500,000,000 3,250,000,000
TRADING TRANSACTIONS WITH SECURITIES COMPANIES - 225,183,681 - -
SECURITIES BUSINESS PAYABLE 929,732,544 1,259,708,975 - -
LIABILITIES UNDER COMMERCIAL PAPERS SOLD 336,926,200 411,926,200 - -
DEBENTURES 7,555,520,000 7,555,520,000 5,473,000,000 5,473,000,000
ACCRUED INTEREST PAYABLE 1,053,156,553 942,602,477 454,759,113 435,751,001
INSURANCE PREMIUM PAYABLE 359,070,747 338,544,647 357,695,228 328,944,517
LIABILITIES PAYABLE ON DEMAND 48,604,611 84,699,897 - -
OTHER LIABILITIES 2,860,754,227 2,384,830,716 861,980,405 566,661,559
PROVISION FOR LOSS ON INVESTMENTS IN
A SUBSIDIARY COMPANY - - 159,001,155 400,191,718
TOTAL LIABILITIES 158,432,052,626 147,972,481,965 103,351,520,804 99,036,624,296


(MRS. SUCHADA PAVANANUNT) (MR. BUNDIT CHEEVADHANARAK)
MANAGING DIRECTOR MANAGING DIRECTOR

UNAUDITED
NATIONAL FINANCE PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED AND ITS SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
BALANCE SHEETS (Continued)
AS AT 30 JUNE 2004 AND 31 DECEMBER 2003
(Unit : Baht)
CONSOLIDATED THE COMPANY ONLY
30 June 2004 31 December 2003 30 June 2004 31 December 2003
SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY
Share capital
Registered
19,776 preference shares of Baht 10 each and
2,333,134,227 ordinary shares of Baht 10 each 23,331,540,030 23,331,540,030 23,331,540,030 23,331,540,030
Issued and fully paid up
19,776 preference shares of Baht 10 each 197,760 197,760 197,760 197,760
1,333,134,227 ordinary shares of Baht 10 each 13,331,342,270 13,331,342,270 13,331,342,270 13,331,342,270
13,331,540,030 13,331,540,030 13,331,540,030 13,331,540,030
Share premium 2,065,644,888 2,065,644,888 2,065,644,888 2,065,644,888
Surplus from revaluation of assets of an associated company 418,456,195 428,266,054 418,456,195 428,266,054
Revaluation surplus on investments 671,667,603 1,083,139,695 671,667,603 1,083,139,695
Revaluation deficit on investments (1,138,553,289) (1,235,273,890) (1,138,553,289) (1,235,273,890)
Retained earnings
Appropriated - statutory reserve 219,630,693 219,630,693 219,630,693 219,630,693
Unappropriated 3,945,386,858 3,354,338,983 3,945,386,858 3,354,338,983
Equity attributable to Company`s shareholders 19,513,772,978 19,247,286,453 19,513,772,978 19,247,286,453
Minority interest - equity attributable to minority
shareholders of subsidiaries 530,337,502 528,687,765 - -
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY 20,044,110,480 19,775,974,218 19,513,772,978 19,247,286,453
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY 178,476,163,106 167,748,456,183 122,865,293,782 118,283,910,749
OFF-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS - CONTINGENCIES
Avals to bills and guarantees of loans 59,155,421 75,830,935 10,000,000 10,000,000
Other guarantees 324,506,347 283,045,583 966,747 966,747
Obligation under interest rate swap agreements on principal balance 6,861,700,000 5,905,000,000 6,861,700,000 5,905,000,000
Other contingencies 1,381,541,239 1,526,661,494 - 47,242,488


(MRS. SUCHADA PAVANANUNT) (MR. BUNDIT CHEEVADHANARAK)
MANAGING DIRECTOR MANAGING DIRECTOR

UNAUDITED
NATIONAL FINANCE PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED AND ITS SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS
FOR THE THREE-MONTH PERIODS ENDED 30 JUNE 2004 AND 2003
(Unit : Baht)
CONSOLIDATED THE COMPANY ONLY
2004 2003 2004 2003
INTEREST AND DIVIDEND INCOME
Loans and deposits 550,049,165 669,259,239 195,378,741 174,433,382
Hire purchase and financial lease income 1,275,213,732 803,213,664 1,271,247,125 799,529,135
Investments 309,684,594 497,589,692 110,144,875 222,925,793
Total interest and dividend income 2,134,947,491 1,970,062,595 1,576,770,741 1,196,888,310
EXPENSES ON BORROWINGS
Interest and discounts 827,285,796 845,667,938 533,841,691 546,666,904
Fees and charges 260,154 258,473 - -
Total interest expenses 827,545,950 845,926,411 533,841,691 546,666,904
Net interest and dividend income 1,307,401,541 1,124,136,184 1,042,929,050 650,221,406
BAD DEBT AND DOUBTFUL ACCOUNTS (109,307,046) (942,833,892) (202,026,475) (67,873,844)
LOSS ON DEBT RESTRUCTURING (22,804,464) (475,093) - -
Net interest and dividend income after
bad debt and doubtful accounts and loss on debt restructuring 1,175,290,031 180,827,199 840,902,575 582,347,562
NON-INTEREST INCOME
Brokerage fees 144,825,510 73,022,381 - -
Gains on investments 60,353,011 959,733,654 (18,305,836) 796,967,165
Share of profits (loss) from investments accounted for
under equity method - net 34,594,840 81,346,435 577,669,952 (82,048,668)
Fees and charges 75,961,773 70,304,068 3,617,084 4,619,954
Discounted income on insurance premium 94,997,302 75,692,774 94,181,256 75,523,210
Gain on debt settlement/property transferred in settlement of debts 404,792,982 232,177,504 - -
Insurance premium income 164,049,176 109,902,493 - -
Loss on property foreclosed (15,483,593) (94,397,057) (3,748,674) (102,199,563)
Other income 152,679,364 88,350,569 91,971,470 57,928,776
Total non-interest income 1,116,770,365 1,596,132,821 745,385,252 750,790,874
OPERATING EXPENSES
Personnel expenses 354,316,692 278,021,212 140,758,024 104,668,330
Premises and equipment expenses 137,254,725 104,427,298 77,361,477 52,422,169
Taxes and duties 54,800,738 84,021,196 29,297,324 53,495,560