Wann steigt der sch... Euro zum USD endlich ??? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Biancale]

Halte seit ca. 9 Monaten eine Euro-Call der noch
bis 06/2002 läuft und eine Basis von 0,95 hat.
Meine Hoffnung auf eine reibungslose Bargeldeinführung (was
ja auch passiert ist) und somit Kurse in Richtung 0,95 sind leider
verpufft.

Wer hält ahnliche Optionsscheine wie ich ???
Wie verhaltet ihr euch gegen einen eventl. Totalverlust ???

[Rosainnenfutter]

Keine Angst der steigt bald und du kannst dich über satte Gewinne freuen !! Leider kann ich keine Optionsscheine handeln sonst hätte ich auch EURO calls

[odlo]

Ich denke, daß die derzeitigen Kurse politische Kurse sind.
Es stellt sich nur die Frage, wann es den USA einfällt, daß eine schwächerer $ genehm sein könnte und wie tief die Reise geht. Geht sie sehr tief, ist D am Ende.

[apoll17at]

was heißt "D"?
Dollar oder Deutschland?

[Lya]

@biancale
Einfache fragen, nur jeder sabbelt irgendwas.

Wann steigt er? Wenn 87,3 halten, dann vielleicht.
Scheine wie du? Weiß ich nicht!
Totalverlust? Kaufe keine OS mehr, besonders keine Devisen OS!

Gruß

#2 Schwachsinn

[LFGBroker]

Gegen Totalverlust hilft nur ein Verkauf zur rechten Zeit, zum Beispiel am 17.12.01 oder 02.01.02

[fulhardy]

>Halte seit ca. 9 Monaten eine Euro-Call ????

warum machst du sowas ?
ich hab festgestellt, dass bei OS das Geld entweder schnell kommt(3 Tage,)oder nie.

US Dollar Index, Mar 2002 - Quick FX Updates - Wednesday, January 16, 2002 (16:30 CET)
(16:30 CET) - Here`s a quick update of short-term FX expectations. For more details and specific trading recommendations, read the individual write-up of the currencies elsewhere in this web page. Recommendations are highlighted here only if there are material changes in the trading view. This section is updated during the day when market action warrants: - updates in progress . . . . . .

US DOLLAR - (16:30 CET) - the US dollar continues to make impressive gains against EUR and other continentals; EUR/USD is resting at the .8800 technical support, while USD/CHF is just off the important 1.6700 technical marker. GBP/USD has gone as low as 1.4350 and remains on a bearish configuration. The US dollar continues to improved against JPY, CAD and AUD. USD/JPY may have made a trough at 130.83, and breach of important market 132.00 level is just minutes away. A sustained rally will follow a break of 132.00. The long-awaited resumption of the US dollar rally has began.

Here are the news and events that are making impact on the foreign exchange markets as of the moment:

- Argentina`s peso fell to 2.2 per dollar, a decline of 54 percent since Friday, as the central bank prepared to sell dollars for a second day in what investors say is a futile attempt to stem the currency`s slide. The central bank sold as much as $8.8 million to private exchange houses yesterday after the peso dropped to below 2 per dollar at money-changers for the first time. The bank vowed to keep using funds from its $14.8 billion of reserves to bolster the peso. (Bloomberg)

- The Bank of Japan policy board decided Wednesday to allow the central bank to buy long-term government bonds issued in the past 12 months to increase its ability to supply funds to the money market. The decision, to take effect on today, will exclude two issues of long-term JGBs floated in the last two months, however. Policy board members also agreed to make full use of asset-backed commercial paper in order to inject funds into the market via repurchase agreements, beginning next month. (Dow-Jones)

- Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said Wednesday his ministry isn`t considering guiding the yen lower. "There is no discussion (in the MOF) about manipulating foreign exchange levels," Shiokawa said at a regular press conference. "We aren`t guiding the yen lower." Shiokawa said he hasn`t received any direct complaints from other Asian countries about the weakness of the yen. (Dow-Jones)

EUR/USD - (.8830) 16:35 CET - the single currency continue to fall, but found temporary support at .8800 technical levels. The main downtrend has resumed, and will be further confirmed by a breach of .8800 support, which we expect momentarily. The next downside objective is the crucial .8735 trough. Obviously, there is no change in the bearish medium-term view. Today`s downmove below .8850 has eliminated the chances of further .8980 rally . We probably have seen an important top at .9072 last week. EUR/USD should continue to fall from here, and we watch how the correction`s baseline at .8735 would fare later in the week.

There is no change in medium-term considerations. Longer-term price action still suggests that the previous recovery to .9072 was merely corrective, and the bear trend may have reasserted. We expect to see another go at .8800 minor support from here, but it still takes a break of .8750 to confirm that the correction is indeed over. We still feel strongly that the EUR/USD will fall towards .8500 - .8400 support area which will be generated by the ascending trendline from the .8225 trough in Oct. 2000. We should see those levels in mid-1Q2002. As we explained on the main analysis elsewhere on this web page, the favored scenario going forward from here on is a fall to .8500 - .8400 along the outlines of a huge Elliott +triangle+, which requires a decline to .8500 - .8400 sometime in the middle of 1Q2002.

Recommendations: Hold shorts (.8940). Move initial stoploss from .9040 to .8980. Trading objective: .8500 (new).

USD/JPY - (131.88) 16;36 - the technical configuration becomes even more positive, after a trough at 130.83 was formed by Japanese officialdom who reiterated the premise that JPY decline is in accordance with economic fundamentals, snapping the multi-day decline. The unit has gone as low as 130.83, but with prices looking perky, we suggest that a break of 132.00 might just be minutes away, as the dollar steps on the gas. Breach of that level suggests that the sell-off is over. Further recovery, and subsequent break of 133.00 should kick-start the stalled uptrend. Official comments so far indicate that Japan wants do really want to see a weaker yen, even if it collides with the interest of neighboring countries. Japan officials have correlated the yen`s move with a correction from excess strength. As long official concerns focuses on speed rather than direction, USD/JPY will remain bid in general terms. The general uptrend should resume soon, with 136.00 as objective in the near-term, then possibly 140.00 sometime in late 1Q2002.

Recommendations: Hold longs (125.50). Buy again at 132.25. Keep stop-profit at 130.20. Trading objective: 140.00.

USD/CHF - (1.6681) 16:05 - the currency broke through then broke below the 1.6700 technical barrier, but support may have been established at 1.6650 area. The uptrend has resumed again, and should break 1.6700 again shortly. We expect support to progressively creep higher as the trading day goes on. Bearish concerns has now receded, as 1.6700 has been taken out. On a longer-term perspective, we have probably seen a trough at 1.6400. Further out, the bullish outlook remains, and the rally should resume shortly. USD/CHF will probably hit 1.7000 resistance levels next week. The bearish argument presented in EUR/USD could also force USD/CHF to go substantially higher in the near-term. The 1.6750 cap has been taken out, so we look forward to a test of 1.7000 to confirm the legitimacy of a rally to 1.8000.

Recommendations: Hold longs (1.6620). Keep stoploss at 1.6480. Trading target: 1.7300 (new).

GBP/USD - (1.4382) 16:08 - the sell-off did continue and came to rest at 1.4350. Resistance at 1.4400 should hold off any rally from here. Look for firmer support at 1.4325. However, the bear trend has resumed decisively, and should nake mnoves to break below the 1.4325 baseline next week. On a longer-term view, the currency is still consolidating after a sell-off from the 1.4568 top, and won`t break out of the range until 1.4320 is taken out. Nonetheless, Cable is now south-bound once more, and and should be aiming for the low 1.4000s once 1.4320 support yields. We expect the currency to continue to make its way down the slope, retest the 1.4325 support, then on to 1.4250 first, then to the 1.39 - 1.38 levels sometime in the next few weeks.

Recommendations: Hold shorts (1.4400). Move stoploss from 1.4580 to 1.4460. Trading objective: 1.4000.



AUD/USD - (.5162) 16:12 - AUD has been to as low as .5130, and but recovered somewhat since then. However, resistance at .5180 should limit the upside potential. Today`s decline has marked .5277 as peak. No change in the short-term view -- we are still expect a large decline after upside momentum broke down at the .5277 peak. The bigger picture still suggests that the Aussie would retreat soon as the US dollar turns against other majors. The implications on a longer-term basis remains unchanged: the corrective rally has been stronger than we have expected, but will probably fade out soon, and should not change the bearish calculus. We still believe that the downtrend will resume very shortly. The fall thereafter may go towards the .5025 - .5000 major support.


Recommendations: Hold shorts (.5200). Move stoploss from .5280 to .5230. Trading objective: .5000

USD/CAD - (1.5935) 16:15 - finally, a break out from a small trading range bounded by 1.5900, gives the first indications of a USD trough, especially after it went through 1.5930 minutes ago. The rally should accelerate later in the day, and is focused at 1.6000 next. A longer-term view: the recent dips were anticipated and part of the large sideways consolidation, and so we continue to see a positive stance. All we need to see now is another break of 1.6050 cap to set the rally off for real, something which we expect to see sometime soon. The new bull upcycle should resume in earnest thereafter, and the current consolidation, once done, may help secure the necessary base to proceed. Expect 1.6300 in the next few weeks, then 1.6500 sometime in the late February.

Recommendations: Keep long (1.5975). Initial stoploss: 1.5790. Objective: 1.6300

EUR/JPY - (116.30) 16:20 - support at 115.58, causing a small consolidation. However, its still not hanky-dory out there. and we continue to provide for another down slide later in the day. Reason: the EUR has started a new downcycle, while the JPY is still on a neutral stance, so we reappraise the short-term stance to make allowances for further cross weakness. EUR/JPY may continue the downtrend to 115.00, even 114.00, so we stand aside. There are very short-term opportunities to go short, once resistance at 116.50 has been confirmed, looking for 115.00 - 114.00. Longer-term, we still believe that the current downturn, regardless of eventual size, is temporary at this juncture, and the positive near-term scenario should kick-in when it is over. We will be looking for 127.00 to the upside next time around.

Recommendations: Long trade (117.90) taken out at 115.70 stop. Stay on the sidelines for a while.

EUR/GBP - (.6138) 16:25 - the cross is consolidating after the "impressive" +triple bottom+ gave way. A low of sorts was made at .6118, and looks like the cross will have to go lower still before support is found. Our view: both EUR and GBP are in transition stages at this point, and the cross will likely go in favor of Cable. Taking the recent consolidation as middle point, allow further declines to the .6050 area later in the week or by Monday next week. On a longer-term basis however, we have to pick the EUR. The next upside focus is the area near .6400, then .6700. A new upmove to those levels might commence at .6050 - .6000. Our new bearish short-term view is wrong if the cross rallies above .6150 from here. That`s why we are keeping the long trade just in case. . . .

Recommendations: Keep longs (.6230). Keep stoploss at .6090. Objective: .6700.

EUR/CHF - (1.4691) 16:27 - support at 1.4750 holding up, but any rally is severely curtailed by resistance at just below 1.4750. The fall has gone to as low as 1.4663, but a subsequent rebound shows weakness again. Since the major continentals are in a transition phase (at the start of a new USD bull cycle), the cross might weaken some more, so we modify our short-term view. Allow for further declines back to 1.4650 - 1.4600 in the next few days. Looking at the currency on a longer-term perspective, the fall to 1.4600 may be completely retraced, so we want to stand aside until a trend becomes discernable again. However, we also believe that the rally from the 1.4600 base will continue thereafter, and will subsequent bring the cross back to the 1.4900 cap. Further out, look for 1.5200.

Recommendations: Longs (1.4810) taken out at the 1.4725 stop. Stay on the sidelines.

GBP/JPY - (1.8950) 16:39 - the cross fell even lower, and has been to 1.8835. A small rebound since then should be checked at 1.9000. Since the GBP, along with other continentals, are adjusting to the new US dollar bull cycle, allow for further declines to 1.8800. But we do not see any need to modify the main view, and further declines to 1.8800 should not detract from the positive view in the longer-term. The pair should break above the 1.9200 cap perhaps early next week. On a longer-term time frame, the main rally may have resumed, with 1.9500 as next target. From a trading perspective, it still pays to keep long, as the breach of the top now focuses attention to 1.9200 cap again, then 1.9500. We see 2.0000 as the ultimate target in the next 4 to 5 weeks.

Recommendations: Hold longs (1.9030). Keep stoploss at 1.8700. Trading objective: 1.9900.

USD/DKK - (8.4178) 16:30 - the dollar took out the 8.4000 resistance and has been to 8.4455, but may retest the 8.4000 resistance-turned support level. Chances are the rally will continue later in the day. The next target is perhaps the 8.5000 area (new). The longer-term price action bias is now definitely to the upside, in accordance with the large +double bottom+ base created at 8.2000. Going by our recent EUR and CHF outlook, the currency may now be focusing at 8.8000 as target in late February. We maintain that the surprise will likely be on the upside. Watch for EUR and CHF moves to provide clues for trading for rest of 2001.

Recommendations: Hold longs (8.3200). Move stoploss from 8.2400 to 8.2800. Objective: 8.7000 (new).

[LFGBroker]

Recommendations:

Hold shorts (.8940). Move initial stoploss from .9040 to .8980. Trading objective: .8500 (new)

[Dickhaut]

@fullhardy
Kannst du bitte den link reinstelnne,von den FX -Quotes (aus deinem thread)
txs

[Hackertom1]

also da war heut so ein typ auf CNBC, der doch tatsächlich gesagt hat, daß für ihn als technical analyst der weg des euro runter auf 0.75 oder sogar 0.70 feststeht. ich glaub der hat da mit diesen elliot wellen argumentiert. glaub ich, bin nicht sicher. wenn das eintrifft, dann können wir uns auch mit unserem EU-YEN verhältnis gratulieren. ich kann nur hoffen, daß da die EZB anständig dagegen hält, sollte das passieren.



Hackertom

[Ken_meyer]

S/L soll ja ne sinnvolle Einrichtung sein.

Ich bin eher skeptisch ob sich das bis Juni noch ausgeht.

Und längerfristig schaut es zur Zeit eher so aus, als ob
die Commodities(Edelmetalle insbesondere) wiederkommen, statt
dass die Anleger die Währungen in grossem Masse wechseln.
Für die USA schaut die Zukunft bescheiden aus, aber man sieht
in Euro oder Yen ganz gewiss keine Alternative.

Interessant sind jetzt möglicherweise Währungen von
EU-Beitrittskandidaten( aber die gibts nun mal nicht auf
Krankenschein )