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Story [ 07.06.2002 14:32:38 ]

MNSI-ANALYSIS: US May Employ Report Is Tame, Economy Stalls in Q2>

--May Payrolls +41,000, Prior Two Mos Rev to -21k on Net
--Q2 Payroll Avg +24k, vs -60k Monthly Avg in Q1: Stabilizing?
--Benchmark Revisions Are Smaller Than Usual; Mar 2001 Payrolls -123k
--May Civ. Unemployment Rate 5.8%, -0.2%: Statistical Noise?
--AHE +0.2% in May for +3.2% Year-over-year

By Joseph Plocek

WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The U.S. May employment report was about as
expected, with payrolls up 41,000 but the two prior months revised to
-21,000 on net, resulting in little change overall.

Despite benchmark revisions that complicate interpreting the data,
the report paints a picture of an economy that might have turned into
positive territory from a declining state, but is stagnating currently.
This is best seen in the quarterly averages for monthly payrolls:
+24,000 in Q2, but -60,000 in Q1.

Moreover, May aggregate hours dipped and Average Hourly Earnings at
+0.2% (versus a "trend" number of +0.3%) also are consistent with a slow
economy.

The May payroll composition is also worrisome, with manufacturing
jobs falling 19,000 and construction off 1,000, but the lesser
paid and less productive services up 68,000 and government up 14,000.

Benchmark revisions took payroll information from the full universe
of unemployment insurance records and gave March 2001 payrolls a
-123,000 adjustment, as advertised. By April 2002, employment was
501,000, or 0.4%, lower than the prior estimate, a small adjustment as
the annual benchmarks go.

The civilian unemployment rate fell 0.2% to 5.8%, but this appears
to be "noise" after a jump last month -- the BLS said there is no clear
trend but noted instead that the long-term unemployed are up, rising
142,000 in May. That worrisome trend, while perhaps a result of the
extension of unemployment benefits encouraging workers to hold out for
better jobs, suggests the economy is not yet out of the woods.


Details: Payrolls AHE Agg Hrs Civilian
. Mo Chg Prior yr/yr Index Unemploymt
May +41k --- +3.2% 148.2 5.8%
Apr +6k +43k +3.4% 148.3r 6.0%
Mar -5k -21k +3.5% 148.2r 5.7%

**Market News International Washington Bureau: [phone]**

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