ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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ISIN: US7802871084 · WKN: 885652 · Symbol: RG3
115,05
EUR
+0,61 %
+0,70 EUR
Letzter Kurs 10:20:00 Tradegate
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Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
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45,20 | +14,14 | |
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4,2300 | -17,86 |
Kevin Kennedy Recommend the Following Stock: RGLD
Updated: Thursday, June 6, 2002 06:01 AM ET
CHICAGO, June 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Kevin Kennedy returned a huge +77% return in 2001 for investors willing to think "small". Find out what the editor of the #1 rated Coolcat Explosive Small Cap Growth Stock Report recommends this year. http://www.featuredexpert2.zacks.com .
Here are the highlights from the Featured Expert column:
You will notice I have added an additional market-timing signal for the Wilshire Micro Cap Index. This index focuses on stocks ranked from 2,501-5,000 in the Wilshire 5000 in terms of market capitalization and will be a better gauge for the type of stocks I cover in the newsletter than the Nasdaq, which basically has become a technology barometer. I will still list the Nasdaq signals as well.
I considered using the Russell 2000 or the S&P Small Cap Index, but both of these focus on stocks larger than those covered in the newsletter. The average Russell 2000 market cap is more than $500 million, while most of the stocks covered in the newsletter have market caps less than half of that. I also had trouble finding reliable, non-conflicting data for the Russell 2000 to backtest.
Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD)
Royal Gold is the largest U.S.-based royalty company engaging in the acquisition and management of precious metals royalty interests. On May 9 the company reported record third-quarter net income of $1.6 million, or $0.09 per share, on royalty revenue of $3.1 million. That compares to net income of $359,000, or $0.02 per share, on royalty revenue of $1.4 million for the same period in fiscal 2001.
Updated: Thursday, June 6, 2002 06:01 AM ET
CHICAGO, June 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Kevin Kennedy returned a huge +77% return in 2001 for investors willing to think "small". Find out what the editor of the #1 rated Coolcat Explosive Small Cap Growth Stock Report recommends this year. http://www.featuredexpert2.zacks.com .
Here are the highlights from the Featured Expert column:
You will notice I have added an additional market-timing signal for the Wilshire Micro Cap Index. This index focuses on stocks ranked from 2,501-5,000 in the Wilshire 5000 in terms of market capitalization and will be a better gauge for the type of stocks I cover in the newsletter than the Nasdaq, which basically has become a technology barometer. I will still list the Nasdaq signals as well.
I considered using the Russell 2000 or the S&P Small Cap Index, but both of these focus on stocks larger than those covered in the newsletter. The average Russell 2000 market cap is more than $500 million, while most of the stocks covered in the newsletter have market caps less than half of that. I also had trouble finding reliable, non-conflicting data for the Russell 2000 to backtest.
Royal Gold (Nasdaq: RGLD)
Royal Gold is the largest U.S.-based royalty company engaging in the acquisition and management of precious metals royalty interests. On May 9 the company reported record third-quarter net income of $1.6 million, or $0.09 per share, on royalty revenue of $3.1 million. That compares to net income of $359,000, or $0.02 per share, on royalty revenue of $1.4 million for the same period in fiscal 2001.
Die Zukunft ist unsicher und RGLD könnte positiv springen!
Erinnere RGLD ist eine Goldaktie und Gold ist gewesen der beste Sektor (wenn Gold überhaupt einen Sektor gennant werden kann) für eine Weile nun. Ich mag es definitv überhaupt nicht, wenn RGLD in den Überverkauften Bereich geht. Ich denke das eine Menge Leute Gewinne mitnehmen und werde den letzten 10% Fall als einen guten Einstiegszeitpunkt ansehen.
RGLD wird aktuell auf der 50 dma gehandelt. RGLD ist ein gutes Unternehmen und eine Goldaktie. Die Probleme dieser Welt sind weit davon entfernt von gelöst zu sein und Gold hatte etwas zu korrigieren. Und wie Ihr wißt, es geht nichts gerade und steil nach oben ohne irgendeine Pause. Ich bin überzeugt davon, das wir uns noch in einem Gold bull Markt befinden.
peter.wedemeier1
Erinnere RGLD ist eine Goldaktie und Gold ist gewesen der beste Sektor (wenn Gold überhaupt einen Sektor gennant werden kann) für eine Weile nun. Ich mag es definitv überhaupt nicht, wenn RGLD in den Überverkauften Bereich geht. Ich denke das eine Menge Leute Gewinne mitnehmen und werde den letzten 10% Fall als einen guten Einstiegszeitpunkt ansehen.
RGLD wird aktuell auf der 50 dma gehandelt. RGLD ist ein gutes Unternehmen und eine Goldaktie. Die Probleme dieser Welt sind weit davon entfernt von gelöst zu sein und Gold hatte etwas zu korrigieren. Und wie Ihr wißt, es geht nichts gerade und steil nach oben ohne irgendeine Pause. Ich bin überzeugt davon, das wir uns noch in einem Gold bull Markt befinden.
peter.wedemeier1
ROYAL GOLD >Best gold & silver stocks for the half-year bei den gewichteten Gewinnen durch Aktienkurs die Nr. 1 http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…
ROYAL GOLD >Best gold & silver stocks for the half-year bei den >$10 Precious Metals Aktien die Nr. 1
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…
"I am buying gold," said Sidney H. Kosann, an investment banker at Morgan Lewins & Co. in New York. "`Gold by the end of this year will exceed $350 and by the end of next year will exceed $500."
15.07 Calls gestern bei 35 cents! Erwarte das man bei diesen sein Geld bis Ende der Woche verdoppeln kann.
Mehr Drohungen herausgegeben von bin Laden, der Dollar fällt wie ein Fels, und die Rede vom Präsidenten half dem Markt nicht!
peter.wedemeier1
15.07 Calls gestern bei 35 cents! Erwarte das man bei diesen sein Geld bis Ende der Woche verdoppeln kann.
Mehr Drohungen herausgegeben von bin Laden, der Dollar fällt wie ein Fels, und die Rede vom Präsidenten half dem Markt nicht!
peter.wedemeier1
RGLD über der 50 & 200 MA und sieht sehr gut aus!
Go RGLD!
Go RGLD!
Royal Gold Completes an Offering of Common Stock
DENVER, July 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD - News; Toronto: RGL - News) today announced that the Company has sold 500,000 shares of common stock in a negotiated transaction resulting in gross proceeds of $6,875,000. The shares were sold, by use of a prospectus supplement, to a single institutional investor at a price of $13.75 per share.
Stanley Dempsey, Chairman, CEO and President, said "the proceeds from this offering will be used to advance our royalty acquisition program and allow us to maintain a strong working capital position."
Royal Gold is the largest U.S.-based royalty company engaging in the acquisition and management of precious metals royalty interests. Royal Gold is publicly traded on the Nasdaq National Market System, under the symbol "RGLD" and on the Toronto Stock Exchange, under the symbol "RGL." The Company`s web page is located at www.royalgold.com .
SOURCE: Royal Gold, Inc.
DENVER, July 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD - News; Toronto: RGL - News) today announced that the Company has sold 500,000 shares of common stock in a negotiated transaction resulting in gross proceeds of $6,875,000. The shares were sold, by use of a prospectus supplement, to a single institutional investor at a price of $13.75 per share.
Stanley Dempsey, Chairman, CEO and President, said "the proceeds from this offering will be used to advance our royalty acquisition program and allow us to maintain a strong working capital position."
Royal Gold is the largest U.S.-based royalty company engaging in the acquisition and management of precious metals royalty interests. Royal Gold is publicly traded on the Nasdaq National Market System, under the symbol "RGLD" and on the Toronto Stock Exchange, under the symbol "RGL." The Company`s web page is located at www.royalgold.com .
SOURCE: Royal Gold, Inc.
Diese Aktie sollte gemäß dem MACD nun einen Aufschwung erleben.
Ich bin langfristig bullish für Gold.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Eine riesiege Kaufgelegenheit! Unter $12,-,
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Auf aktuellem Goldpreis ist RGLD fair bewertet. Royal Gold zählt in dem Goldminensektor zu den besten Stockpicks. Und Gold befindet sich am Anfang von einem bull market. Der Dow Jones und der Nasdaq werden sehr bald einen weiteren heftigen Schlag bekommen. Dieses wird dann den Goldpreis nach oben treiben und den Dollarkurs nach unten.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Mehr Gold! Gestiegen auf Volumen. Stochastic steigt auf aus Überverkauft. Gold wird ein Comeback erleben. Fügt etwas Gold zu eurem Portfolio hinzu! Ich mag Glamis Gold, Barrick Gold, Durban Roodeport Deep, Harmony Gold und natürlich Royal Gold.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Breakout Buy Signal!
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
One of the most well-known chart patterns is the "cup and handle." It was first devised by William O`Neil as one of his three primary patterns to trade on. To make a cup and handle, the stock typically dips in price, enters into a base where it trades up and down for a period, moves up on high volume, pauses (forming the handle) and then breaks out to new highs on high volume.
Dan Zanger, editor of Chartpattern.com, has found an excellent example of a cup and handle in Royal Gold (nasdaq: RGLD - news - people ), a Denver-based gold company. It does not own any mines but collects royalties from properties owned by gold companies like Placer Dome (nyse: PDG - news - people ) and AngloGold (nyse: AU - news - people ). It currently is trading around $16.50.
The chart pattern begins at "A," when the stock begins to fall. It then falls into a long base ("B") and then rises again on heavy volume ("C"). The small handle is created with sideways movement at "D." The stock then broke out on quadruple its normal volume.
Zanger likes this pattern specifically because of its long, three-month base. O`Neil wrote in his 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success that legitimate cup-and-handle formations must last at least seven weeks. Zanger thinks that after a brief pause the stock could rise to $23-$25 in the next six or seven weeks on the strength of the pattern.
Long Position geschlossen.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Long Position eröffnet.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Gold rennt inverse zu den Indexes wie Dow Jones und Nasdaq. RGLD hat eine starke Unterstützung und ist mit gutem Volumen von Ihr wieder nach oben abgefedert. Bei RGLD könnt Ihr ein bullishes Szenario sehen und damit gehen.
peter.wedemeier1
peter.wedemeier1
Bottom fishing!
- 50-day EMA Unterstützung,
- MACD positiv,
- Stochastic überverkauft und
- hohes Volumen.
peter.wedemeier1
- 50-day EMA Unterstützung,
- MACD positiv,
- Stochastic überverkauft und
- hohes Volumen.
peter.wedemeier1
Überverkauft in einem Aufwärtstrend!
Gold im generellen erscheint im Moment überverkauft im Aufwärtstrend. Geht mit einem Wert, der ein Top Performer war und sein wird wenn der Goldpreis steigen wird. Gebraucht Gold wie ein Proxy für Ressourcen und auch als ein Hedge gegen den schwachen Dollar.
Gold im generellen erscheint im Moment überverkauft im Aufwärtstrend. Geht mit einem Wert, der ein Top Performer war und sein wird wenn der Goldpreis steigen wird. Gebraucht Gold wie ein Proxy für Ressourcen und auch als ein Hedge gegen den schwachen Dollar.
COMEX gold dives to six-week low as stocks soar Tues 10/15/2002 15:20 EDT
http://www.kitco.com./_a/news/33659.htm
Dow Jones industrial, DAX, Nasdaq und Nemax:
Ich denke das diese Rallye verkehrt ist. Ich empfehle dringend Gewinne mitzunehmen. Ich kann nicht helfen, aber ich denke diese bubble (und es ist nichts anderes! wird in den nächsten 24 Stunden platzen.
Empfehlung: Raus aus sämtlichen Aktien des breiten Marktes!!!
peter.wedemeeir1
http://www.kitco.com./_a/news/33659.htm
Dow Jones industrial, DAX, Nasdaq und Nemax:
Ich denke das diese Rallye verkehrt ist. Ich empfehle dringend Gewinne mitzunehmen. Ich kann nicht helfen, aber ich denke diese bubble (und es ist nichts anderes! wird in den nächsten 24 Stunden platzen.
Empfehlung: Raus aus sämtlichen Aktien des breiten Marktes!!!
peter.wedemeeir1
Strong Interest Stocks
based on the Foolish 8 Strategy
http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategyexperts/?strongpi…
based on the Foolish 8 Strategy
http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategyexperts/?strongpi…
The Passenger
By Dave Skarica
Sep 26 2002
www.addictedtoprofits.com
http://www.kitco.com./ind/Skarica/sep262002.html
By Dave Skarica
Sep 26 2002
www.addictedtoprofits.com
http://www.kitco.com./ind/Skarica/sep262002.html
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/images/10…
Ich gehe davon aus, das der Dollar Index seine Unterstützung nach unten durchbricht. -> Intel
peter.wedemeeir1
Ich gehe davon aus, das der Dollar Index seine Unterstützung nach unten durchbricht. -> Intel
peter.wedemeeir1
To: TA Students
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: 10/18/2002
RE: Fibonacci Retrenchments -- Support & Resistance
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/lessons/1…
Like GG, Royal Gold shows significant resilience against the forces of decline. The Fibonacci support line is slightly under 16, yet Royal has been holding at the $16 level and slightly higher forming a small up trend line.
With some improvement of the MACD 3-6-7 and Momentum 14 RGLD, GG would lead the gold stocks out of this reaction
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: 10/18/2002
RE: Fibonacci Retrenchments -- Support & Resistance
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/lessons/1…
Like GG, Royal Gold shows significant resilience against the forces of decline. The Fibonacci support line is slightly under 16, yet Royal has been holding at the $16 level and slightly higher forming a small up trend line.
With some improvement of the MACD 3-6-7 and Momentum 14 RGLD, GG would lead the gold stocks out of this reaction
"Royal became royal again by positively resolving its downtrend on a day when gold shares in general were under pressure.
It closed slightly above that important line. The MACD and momentum were positive."
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/10…
@peter
cup`n handle?:
Gruß
S.
cup`n handle?:
Gruß
S.
Royal Gold: It did not take too much time for Royal to become royal again. There is a symmetrical triangle here. Refer to Edwards and McGee page 122-figure 53 and page 123 figure 54. For the measuring implication refer to page 139.
Among those with strong RS (Relative Strength) were Royal Gold (again), Glamis, Harmony, Goldfields, Meridian, Newmont. U can judge RS for yourself, just compare the price action, one chart with another. If U move out of weak shares into stronger RS shares it obviously strengthens your pf (portfolio).
Gold Charts R Us
"Trade gold stocks to triple your profits."
GOLDEN BALL in your court
from Harry Schultz
posted November 8, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schultz/schultz110802.html
Gold Charts R Us
"Trade gold stocks to triple your profits."
GOLDEN BALL in your court
from Harry Schultz
posted November 8, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schultz/schultz110802.html
COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR:
This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.
What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.
I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.
Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:
Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.
This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.
We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.
This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.
What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.
I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.
Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:
Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.
This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.
We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.
TECHNICAL REVIEW RGLD
11.20.2002
The panic of the shareholders hit them all, even those that are royal. Yet RGLD shows its regency still by withstand the gold share-pounding panicers with more dignity than others. Watch the Power Down Trend, PDT, for a key to the reversal upwards. The dollar will be your key, so your first focus is the USDX to key the reversal back to bullish on the gold shares. Clearly now RGLD is the front-running gold share leading the pack of non-hedgers. All non-hedgers are leading the hedgers who are in deep problems assuming, and I do, that gold is going much higher over time. NEM is, in my opinion, booking their hedge results as loans; while ABX is charging the results to individual projects as they mark to market.
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/11…
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/images/11…
11.20.2002
The panic of the shareholders hit them all, even those that are royal. Yet RGLD shows its regency still by withstand the gold share-pounding panicers with more dignity than others. Watch the Power Down Trend, PDT, for a key to the reversal upwards. The dollar will be your key, so your first focus is the USDX to key the reversal back to bullish on the gold shares. Clearly now RGLD is the front-running gold share leading the pack of non-hedgers. All non-hedgers are leading the hedgers who are in deep problems assuming, and I do, that gold is going much higher over time. NEM is, in my opinion, booking their hedge results as loans; while ABX is charging the results to individual projects as they mark to market.
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/11…
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/images/11…
Top of The Pops
Strongest Gold Stocks
Clive Maund
4 December, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund120402_goldstoc…
Strongest Gold Stocks
Clive Maund
4 December, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund120402_goldstoc…
December 27, 2002 12:00 p.m.
Iraqi Aftershocks
Being on the wrong side of history won’t be pretty.
http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson122702.asp
Iraqi Aftershocks
Being on the wrong side of history won’t be pretty.
http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson122702.asp
Stock Money Inflows and Outflows
12/27/2002 4:30 PM
RGLD war unter den Werten mit den größten Money Inflows am Freitag!
http://perk.mworld.com/m/m.w?lp=mpp&p=DCMF
12/27/2002 4:30 PM
RGLD war unter den Werten mit den größten Money Inflows am Freitag!
http://perk.mworld.com/m/m.w?lp=mpp&p=DCMF
Die amerikanischen Goldbugs lieben RGLD. Ist deren Liebling und eine schöne Holding-Aktie mit excellenten Royalties. Habe die selbst schon einige Zeit im Depot. Überrennt sämtliche Widerstände mühelos. So mühelos, daß einem manchmal Angst und Bange wird. Der Ferrari unter den GM. Moneyflow sehr positiv.
Which sectors offer opportunity?
Weiss: The only sector we are recommending is certain selected gold mining shares.
Add some gold or gold shares to the portfolio...
What`ll it be in 2003?
By Jeff Ostrowski, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 29, 2002
http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/sunday/…
Weiss: The only sector we are recommending is certain selected gold mining shares.
Add some gold or gold shares to the portfolio...
What`ll it be in 2003?
By Jeff Ostrowski, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 29, 2002
http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/sunday/…
"At the recent New Orleans seminar I stated that as a guess I believed we’d see the price of the Dow and the price of gold cross. At what level? My guess was around 3,000.
To sum up, it’s my belief that the bear market in stocks is still in its early stages. I believe that the bull market in gold is also in its early stages." (The Best of Richard Russell)
http://www.investmentrarities.com/
To sum up, it’s my belief that the bear market in stocks is still in its early stages. I believe that the bull market in gold is also in its early stages." (The Best of Richard Russell)
http://www.investmentrarities.com/
"gold and dow cross@3000"
(Richard Russell)
(Richard Russell)
Planning Discussions Initiated
by
Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain
Concerning A New
Group of Six Arab Dinar
by James Sinclair
December 12, 2002
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/editorials/200…
by
Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain
Concerning A New
Group of Six Arab Dinar
by James Sinclair
December 12, 2002
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/editorials/200…
"New York, Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the five biggest traders in the $1.2 trillion-a-day currency market, forecasts the dollar will fall for a second year against the euro and yen.
The firm, which 12 months ago predicted yesterday`s dollar- yen exchange rate within 1 percent, said the dollar will weaken to 115 yen and $1.12 per euro by year-end from 118.77 yen and $1.0491. The dollar had its first annual drop in the euro`s four- year history and fell for the first year in three against the yen last year as a slow U.S. economy, stock market slump and bond yields at four-decade lows reduced demand for the currency.
``We turn the year expecting weakness`` in the dollar, the firm said in a research report that wasn`t attributed to any analyst. Jim O`Neill, the London-based head of global economic research, oversees the firm`s currency forecasts.
``No doubt, someone will accuse us of not being bullish enough on the euro in coming days,`` the firm said.
Currencies have been a strong point for Goldman in recent months. The firm`s fixed income, currency and commodities division produced net revenue of $793 million for the company`s fourth quarter, which ended Nov. 30, and a record $1.3 billion in the third quarter.
At the end of 2001, Goldman predicted that the dollar would close out 2002 at 120 yen and $1.10 per euro. Those forecasts beat most predictions in a Bloomberg News survey 12 months ago: Only three of the 58 firms in the survey predicted the euro would be above $1 at yearend 2002 and only seven said the dollar would end the year at 120 yen or weaker.
For 2003, Goldman is more bearish on the dollar than the average forecast from a Bloomberg News survey this month. In that survey, 51 currency analysts projected on average that the dollar would end 2003 at 124.24 yen and $1.02 per euro."
The firm, which 12 months ago predicted yesterday`s dollar- yen exchange rate within 1 percent, said the dollar will weaken to 115 yen and $1.12 per euro by year-end from 118.77 yen and $1.0491. The dollar had its first annual drop in the euro`s four- year history and fell for the first year in three against the yen last year as a slow U.S. economy, stock market slump and bond yields at four-decade lows reduced demand for the currency.
``We turn the year expecting weakness`` in the dollar, the firm said in a research report that wasn`t attributed to any analyst. Jim O`Neill, the London-based head of global economic research, oversees the firm`s currency forecasts.
``No doubt, someone will accuse us of not being bullish enough on the euro in coming days,`` the firm said.
Currencies have been a strong point for Goldman in recent months. The firm`s fixed income, currency and commodities division produced net revenue of $793 million for the company`s fourth quarter, which ended Nov. 30, and a record $1.3 billion in the third quarter.
At the end of 2001, Goldman predicted that the dollar would close out 2002 at 120 yen and $1.10 per euro. Those forecasts beat most predictions in a Bloomberg News survey 12 months ago: Only three of the 58 firms in the survey predicted the euro would be above $1 at yearend 2002 and only seven said the dollar would end the year at 120 yen or weaker.
For 2003, Goldman is more bearish on the dollar than the average forecast from a Bloomberg News survey this month. In that survey, 51 currency analysts projected on average that the dollar would end 2003 at 124.24 yen and $1.02 per euro."
Gold price rises as miners stop hedging
Jan 2
Stephen Wisenthal
http://afr.com/companies/2003/01/02/FFXXWLT3EAD.html
Jan 2
Stephen Wisenthal
http://afr.com/companies/2003/01/02/FFXXWLT3EAD.html
Hallo Peter.W.
ich hab mal kurz nach auf der Web-Site von Royal gold geschaut.
hab ich das richtig verstanden, dass das eine Holding ist, sowie etwa BB Biotech?
Kannst du vielleicht ein paar zusammenfassende Daten über das Unternehmen hier reinstellen?
danke
grüße
ich hab mal kurz nach auf der Web-Site von Royal gold geschaut.
hab ich das richtig verstanden, dass das eine Holding ist, sowie etwa BB Biotech?
Kannst du vielleicht ein paar zusammenfassende Daten über das Unternehmen hier reinstellen?
danke
grüße
SEC urged to probe substance of Morgan gold business, not just origin of rumors
11:45a ET Sunday, January 5, 2003
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA consultant James Turk, editor of The Freemarket
Gold & Money Report, has just published in his
newsletter an open letter asking the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission to investigate the substance
of Morgan Chase`s involvement with gold, rather than
merely the source of rumors about that involvement --
the latter being the kind of investigation Morgan
Chase itself last week said it had asked the SEC for.
Further, with his customarily brilliant investigative
accounting style of journalism, Turk`s letter to the
SEC lays out evidence that Morgan Chase may have been
financing Enron`s most dubious deals with borrowed gold.
Turk`s letter is appended here, and GATA supporters
are urged to send a copy of it to the SEC along with
their own request that the commission investigate
Morgan Chase`s gold business as he proposes.
The commission`s mailing address is:
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
450 Fifth St.
Washington, DC 20549
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
JP Morgan, Enron, and Gold
By James Turk, Editor
The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
www.FGMR.com
Letter 317, January 6, 2003
Copyright 2003 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
I have today mailed the following letter to
the Enforcement Division of the Securities
and Exchange Commission. It`s about time that
we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan
Chase`s activity in the gold market, the full
extent of its gold exposure, and whether it
used gold loans to fund the so-called
"disguised loans" that it arranged for Enron.
Perhaps the SEC will help us learn the truth
by investigating these matters and reporting
the results.
* * *
Dear Sir/Madam:
I am writing in regard to recent statements
made by the management of JP Morgan Chase
(JPM) relating to its activity in the gold
market. This is to ask for your determination
whether their statements are false or
misleading.
On January 2nd JPM announced that it had
reached an out-of-court settlement with
several insurance companies regarding JPM`s
involvement with Enron. You will recall that
these insurance companies had initiated this
litigation, alleging in their lawsuit brought
in New York federal court that certain
trading transactions between JPM and Enron
were shams, thereby negating the insurance
contracts covering these transactions.
In a press conference subsequent to their
January 2nd announcement, JPM management
commented on rumors relating to its activity
in the gold market. I refer to the following
CBSMarketWatch report by Luisa Beltran and
Greg Morcroft published on January 2, 2003:
"[JP Morgan Chase] executives said that,
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it
has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold
prices. `We don`t have any real exposure to
gold. I don`t know where that rumor keeps
coming from, but it`s not true,` CEO Harrison
said. `We have seen this rumor pop up again
and again,` added chief counsel McDavid, `and
we have asked the SEC to look into it.`"
I have no specific knowledge about these
rumors, other than what I have learned from
the media. But I am very pleased to hear that
the SEC has been asked to investigate them.
In this regard, I am writing to bring the
following matters to your attention.
Given that these so-called rumors "pop up
again and again" as Mr. McDavid states,
perhaps they have some basis in fact. It is a
well-established truth that "buzz" about a
company will often circulate before an event.
For example, rumors about derivative problems
in Long Term Capital Management circulated
well before that company`s collapse. More
recently, word of potential problems in Enron
circulated freely, much of which was reported
in the media. The protracted drop in Enron`s
share price for several months before the
resignation of its CEO, which itself occurred
three months before that company`s
bankruptcy, was an indication that the market
believed (as evidenced by that company`s
declining share price) the rumors about
Enron`s problems had some basis in fact.
In both of these instances, company
management denied that there was any
substance to the so-called "rumors" that were
circulating, as JPM management has now also
similarly done. I also bring to your
attention the decline in JPM`s share price
that occurred last year while these rumors
about its gold exposure circulated.
Thus, your investigation into the rumors
about JPM`s activity in the gold market is
timely, but the focus of your investigation
should not be, as JPM management implies, how
these so-called "rumors" started. Rather,
your investigation should determine whether
these rumors have any basis in fact. If they
do, then this is to also ask for your
determination whether the statements above by
Messrs. Harrison and McDavid are false or
misleading.
To assist you, I would like to bring the
following matters to your attention:
1) The Wall Street Journal published an
insightful article about JPM and Enron on
January 25, 2002 ("Insurers Balk at Paying
Bank Up to $1 Billion in Claims On Complex
Transactions"). That article provides an
overview about the financing provided by JPM
to Enron, through Mahonia Ltd., a company
Chase Manhattan (one of JPM`s predecessor
companies) established in the Channel
Islands.
The article states:
"Prepaying for future delivery of a commodity
is known as a `gold trade,` because it is the
way gold bullion has been trading for
centuries. In recent years, trading
companies, whether from Houston or Wall
Street, have been making more use of this
structure to buy and sell oil, natural gas
and other commodities. Some commercial banks,
including Chase Manhattan had to set up part
of these trades overseas because their
banking charters wouldn`t allow them to take
delivery of commodities."
The article describes what is generally known
as a commodity swap, and gold is frequently
used in one side of the transaction. As an
ex-banker (1969 to 1980), I have some
knowledge about how these transactions work,
as banks are a facilitator for them.
When gold is used to finance a commodity
swap, bullion is borrowed from a central
bank, and sold to raise dollars, which are
then used to purchase the commodity on the
other side of the transaction (oil and gas in
the case of Enron). It is noteworthy that the
WSJ article specifically mentions a "gold
trade"; given this remark, anyone
knowledgeable about commodity swaps might
naturally assume that JPM/Mahonia was
arranging gold-for-energy swaps for Enron.
Thus, this WSJ article may be the original
source of the so-called "rumors" referred to
by JPM management. But importantly, this WSJ
article also suggests that these rumors may
have some basis in fact.
The article did not specifically state from
where Mahonia was obtaining the funding
needed to purchase the commodity contracts it
acquired from Enron (the so-called "disguised
loans" the insurance companies contended were
shams). Nor did a WSJ article published
August 13, 2002, ("Enron Probe Shines Harsh
Light on Financiers") disclose the nature or
the original source of the funding needed to
complete these commodity swaps, but this
later article does provide more information
about potential gold activities by JPM in its
dealings with Enron:
"In the world of commodities, particularly
gold trading, the 50-year-old Mr. Mehta
[Chase`s and then JPM`s head gold trader] was
well known. His successful marketing of
derivatives, and his enthusiasm for the use
of these instruments, helped the gold-hedging
business take off in the 1990s. Mr. Mehta and
his team executed [deals which] allowed Enron
to use an offshore vehicle known as Mahonia
to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from
J.P. Morgan."
Taken together, there are enough facts
disclosed in these two WSJ articles to
suggest that gold loans could be one possible
source of funding for Mahonia`s commodity
swaps with Enron, and if so, these gold loans
could lead to the "gold exposure" denied by
JPM management.
2) An article about Enron in The New York
Times published on February 17, 2002, was
important for the following statement (note
the emphasis added by me):
"Partly because of the way the loans [by
JPM/Mahonia to Enron] were accounted for, the
company [i.e., Enron] reported A SURGE IN ITS
HEDGING ACTIVITY, ACCOMPLISHED USING
FINANCIAL CONTRACTS CALLED DERIVATIVES,
DURING ITS LAST FEW YEARS. When pressed about
the increase by skeptical analysts, Enron
officials said the numbers reflected hedges
for commodity trades, not new financing, the
analysts said."
The key point here is the "surge" in
derivative contracts entered into by Enron
"during its last few years." Each derivative
has two parties to the contract. To my
knowledge it has not been disclosed who took
the other side of the Enron contracts, but
the following information from the U.S.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
offers one possible answer.
According to its website, the OCC "charters,
regulates, and supervises national banks to
ensure a safe, sound, and competitive banking
system that supports the citizens,
communities, and economy of the United
States." As part of this responsibility it
collects information about the derivative
exposure of the nation`s banks.
The disclosure by Chase Manhattan Bank
(before its merger with Morgan Bank) is
telling. In three years from December 31,
1997, to December 31, 2000, there was a surge
in Chase`s gold derivative contracts from
$11.8 billion to $29.8 billion. Because of
the merger, it is not possible to determine
from the OCC reports Chase`s derivative
activity for 2001. But looking at the
derivative exposure of JPM on a combined
basis subsequent to its merger, it is
noteworthy that after the Enron bankruptcy at
the end of 2001, the gold derivative activity
of JPM was unchanged -- at $41.0 billion
reported at December 31, 2001, and $41.0
billion as of September 30, 2002, the latest
reporting period available. Thus, Chase`s
derivative contracts in gold surged while
Enron`s derivative contracts surged, and then
remained unchanged after Enron collapsed.
This pattern suggests that it is possible
Chase (and JPM as its successor) was the
counterparty to Enron`s derivative contracts.
Further, this growth in gold derivative
contracts provides further evidence to the
possibility I note above that gold was used
by Mahonia to fund the commodity swaps (the
so-called "disguised loans") that it entered
into with Enron.
The August 13, 2002, Wall Street Journal
article states:
"Mr. Mehta has had other high-profile scrapes
with controversy while at the bank. For
instance, Mr. Mehta came under fire for the
bank`s earlier arrangements with Sumitomo
Corp., the Japanese trading company and the
employer of a copper rogue trader named Yasuo
Hamanaka who lost $2.6 billion in copper
trades. Mr. Mehta`s team structured a number
of derivatives transactions that allowed Mr.
Hamanaka to raise money that didn`t appear to
senior Sumitomo executives as debt, said
people familiar with the deals."
Thus, perhaps the rumors circulating about
JPM`s gold exposure have some basis in fact.
In any case, the above material does
highlight the importance of your
investigation.
I note again Mr. Harrison`s statement: "We
don`t have any real exposure to gold."
Perhaps in your investigation you can ask him
to define the term "real." That JPM has
exposure to gold is undeniable from the OCC
reports. And there are different kinds of
exposure from derivatives -- price risk and
counter-arty risk.
It may be that through its derivative
contracts, JPM believes it does not have any
price exposure to gold. However, while the
gold market has been generally quiescent and
its price relatively stable the past few
years, gold in recent weeks has become very
active.
As we have learned from the collapse of Long
Term Capital Management, volatility
undermines what otherwise may appear to be a
safe derivatives position. So we will see in
the weeks and months ahead whether JPM`s
derivative exposure to the gold price is
indeed under control.
Given the size of its position, it may be
difficult for JPM to keep its price risk
controlled. JPM`s gold derivative exposure of
$41 billion of notional value represents 117
million ounces of gold -- a number that is
nearly 50 percent greater than all the gold
produced worldwide in a year. Thus it seems
likely that the gold market may not be able
to provide the liquidity JPM will need to
keep its gold derivative position in balance
in a period of increased gold price
volatility, which is a result that would
clearly negate Mr. Harrison`s contention that
JPM does not have "any real exposure to
gold."
Then there is counterparty risk, which is
always present because the financial position
of companies changes. Counterparties deemed
creditworthy when JPM entered into derivative
contracts may no longer be financially as
strong as before. Further, if in fact the
simultaneous surge in Enron`s and JPM`s
derivative contracts was not just
coincidental and they were counterparties to
each other, one has to wonder whether JPM has
any ongoing exposure to Enron in these
derivative contracts.
It is noteworthy that JPM`s most recent 10-Q
shows that derivative receivables rose $16.4
billion, or 23.0 percent, in the nine months
from December 31, 2001, to $87.5 billion as
of September 30. The net change is actually
25 percent when adjusting derivative
receivables as of December 31, 2001, to
reclassify to Other Assets the Enron-related
surety receivables from the insurance
companies in the case now settled.
Does this glaring (and potentially alarming)
surge in derivative receivables reported by
JPM reflect an inability of JPM`s
counterparties to deliver under their
derivative contract commitments?
And perhaps more importantly, to help
evaluate the accuracy and therefore
reliability of Mr. Harrison`s statement, what
portion of this derivative receivable relates
to gold?
The point is that certain aspects of JPM`s
derivative disclosure appear to be
inadequate. Thus, this is to ask that you
make a determination in your investigation
whether JPM`s disclosure about its gold
derivatives has been sufficient, and indeed
whether the statements by its management
about JPM`s gold exposure are not false or
misleading.
Lastly, your Internet site states: "The laws
and rules that govern the securities industry
in the United States derive from a simple and
straightforward concept: All investors,
whether large institutions or private
individuals, should have access to certain
basic facts about an investment prior to
buying it. To achieve this, the SEC requires
public companies to disclose meaningful
financial and other information to the
public, which provides a common pool of
knowledge for all investors to use to judge
for themselves if a company`s securities are
a good investment."
To achieve this objective, the SEC must
investigate JPM in order to determine whether
it is providing the investing public with
sufficient disclosure on its gold exposure,
which from the OCC reports is undeniable.
Further, the SEC must determine whether the
statements above by JPM management are false
or misleading.
I look forward to reading and learning the
results of your investigation.
For the sake of disclosure, I do not have any
position in the stock of JPM.
Yours truly,
James Turk
----------------------------------------------------
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----------------------------------------------------
RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
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NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Free sites:
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http://www.sharelynx.net
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http://www.financialsense.com
http://www.goldensextant.com
http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html
http://www.depression2.tv
Subscription site:
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Eagle Ranch discussion site:
http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm
----------------------------------------------------
COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED
BY OUR MEMBERS
Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
www.USAGold.com
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US (800) 869-5115
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
cpm@u...
Colorado Gold
222 South 5th St.
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www.ColoradoGold.com
Don Stott, Proprietor
1-888-786-8822
Gold@g...
Investment Rarities Inc.
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Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
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gwestgaard@i...
Lee Certified Coins
P.O. Box 1045
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3601 Park Center Building
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fax: 952-925-0143
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Contacts: David Schectman,
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Resource Consultants Inc.
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1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
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15018 North Tatum Blvd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85032
http://www.buycoin.com
Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
1-800-BUY-COIN
figoldstein@b...
----------------------------------------------------
HOW TO HELP GATA
If you benefit from GATA`s dispatches, please
consider making a financial contribution to
GATA. We welcome contributions as follows.
By check:
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
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USA
By credit card (MasterCard, Visa, and
Discover) over the Internet:
http://www.gata.org/creditcard.html
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Donors of $750 or more will, upon request,
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GATA is a civil rights and educational
organization under the U.S. Internal Revenue
Code and contributions to it are tax-deductible
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-END-
11:45a ET Sunday, January 5, 2003
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA consultant James Turk, editor of The Freemarket
Gold & Money Report, has just published in his
newsletter an open letter asking the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission to investigate the substance
of Morgan Chase`s involvement with gold, rather than
merely the source of rumors about that involvement --
the latter being the kind of investigation Morgan
Chase itself last week said it had asked the SEC for.
Further, with his customarily brilliant investigative
accounting style of journalism, Turk`s letter to the
SEC lays out evidence that Morgan Chase may have been
financing Enron`s most dubious deals with borrowed gold.
Turk`s letter is appended here, and GATA supporters
are urged to send a copy of it to the SEC along with
their own request that the commission investigate
Morgan Chase`s gold business as he proposes.
The commission`s mailing address is:
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
450 Fifth St.
Washington, DC 20549
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
JP Morgan, Enron, and Gold
By James Turk, Editor
The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
www.FGMR.com
Letter 317, January 6, 2003
Copyright 2003 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
I have today mailed the following letter to
the Enforcement Division of the Securities
and Exchange Commission. It`s about time that
we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan
Chase`s activity in the gold market, the full
extent of its gold exposure, and whether it
used gold loans to fund the so-called
"disguised loans" that it arranged for Enron.
Perhaps the SEC will help us learn the truth
by investigating these matters and reporting
the results.
* * *
Dear Sir/Madam:
I am writing in regard to recent statements
made by the management of JP Morgan Chase
(JPM) relating to its activity in the gold
market. This is to ask for your determination
whether their statements are false or
misleading.
On January 2nd JPM announced that it had
reached an out-of-court settlement with
several insurance companies regarding JPM`s
involvement with Enron. You will recall that
these insurance companies had initiated this
litigation, alleging in their lawsuit brought
in New York federal court that certain
trading transactions between JPM and Enron
were shams, thereby negating the insurance
contracts covering these transactions.
In a press conference subsequent to their
January 2nd announcement, JPM management
commented on rumors relating to its activity
in the gold market. I refer to the following
CBSMarketWatch report by Luisa Beltran and
Greg Morcroft published on January 2, 2003:
"[JP Morgan Chase] executives said that,
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it
has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold
prices. `We don`t have any real exposure to
gold. I don`t know where that rumor keeps
coming from, but it`s not true,` CEO Harrison
said. `We have seen this rumor pop up again
and again,` added chief counsel McDavid, `and
we have asked the SEC to look into it.`"
I have no specific knowledge about these
rumors, other than what I have learned from
the media. But I am very pleased to hear that
the SEC has been asked to investigate them.
In this regard, I am writing to bring the
following matters to your attention.
Given that these so-called rumors "pop up
again and again" as Mr. McDavid states,
perhaps they have some basis in fact. It is a
well-established truth that "buzz" about a
company will often circulate before an event.
For example, rumors about derivative problems
in Long Term Capital Management circulated
well before that company`s collapse. More
recently, word of potential problems in Enron
circulated freely, much of which was reported
in the media. The protracted drop in Enron`s
share price for several months before the
resignation of its CEO, which itself occurred
three months before that company`s
bankruptcy, was an indication that the market
believed (as evidenced by that company`s
declining share price) the rumors about
Enron`s problems had some basis in fact.
In both of these instances, company
management denied that there was any
substance to the so-called "rumors" that were
circulating, as JPM management has now also
similarly done. I also bring to your
attention the decline in JPM`s share price
that occurred last year while these rumors
about its gold exposure circulated.
Thus, your investigation into the rumors
about JPM`s activity in the gold market is
timely, but the focus of your investigation
should not be, as JPM management implies, how
these so-called "rumors" started. Rather,
your investigation should determine whether
these rumors have any basis in fact. If they
do, then this is to also ask for your
determination whether the statements above by
Messrs. Harrison and McDavid are false or
misleading.
To assist you, I would like to bring the
following matters to your attention:
1) The Wall Street Journal published an
insightful article about JPM and Enron on
January 25, 2002 ("Insurers Balk at Paying
Bank Up to $1 Billion in Claims On Complex
Transactions"). That article provides an
overview about the financing provided by JPM
to Enron, through Mahonia Ltd., a company
Chase Manhattan (one of JPM`s predecessor
companies) established in the Channel
Islands.
The article states:
"Prepaying for future delivery of a commodity
is known as a `gold trade,` because it is the
way gold bullion has been trading for
centuries. In recent years, trading
companies, whether from Houston or Wall
Street, have been making more use of this
structure to buy and sell oil, natural gas
and other commodities. Some commercial banks,
including Chase Manhattan had to set up part
of these trades overseas because their
banking charters wouldn`t allow them to take
delivery of commodities."
The article describes what is generally known
as a commodity swap, and gold is frequently
used in one side of the transaction. As an
ex-banker (1969 to 1980), I have some
knowledge about how these transactions work,
as banks are a facilitator for them.
When gold is used to finance a commodity
swap, bullion is borrowed from a central
bank, and sold to raise dollars, which are
then used to purchase the commodity on the
other side of the transaction (oil and gas in
the case of Enron). It is noteworthy that the
WSJ article specifically mentions a "gold
trade"; given this remark, anyone
knowledgeable about commodity swaps might
naturally assume that JPM/Mahonia was
arranging gold-for-energy swaps for Enron.
Thus, this WSJ article may be the original
source of the so-called "rumors" referred to
by JPM management. But importantly, this WSJ
article also suggests that these rumors may
have some basis in fact.
The article did not specifically state from
where Mahonia was obtaining the funding
needed to purchase the commodity contracts it
acquired from Enron (the so-called "disguised
loans" the insurance companies contended were
shams). Nor did a WSJ article published
August 13, 2002, ("Enron Probe Shines Harsh
Light on Financiers") disclose the nature or
the original source of the funding needed to
complete these commodity swaps, but this
later article does provide more information
about potential gold activities by JPM in its
dealings with Enron:
"In the world of commodities, particularly
gold trading, the 50-year-old Mr. Mehta
[Chase`s and then JPM`s head gold trader] was
well known. His successful marketing of
derivatives, and his enthusiasm for the use
of these instruments, helped the gold-hedging
business take off in the 1990s. Mr. Mehta and
his team executed [deals which] allowed Enron
to use an offshore vehicle known as Mahonia
to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from
J.P. Morgan."
Taken together, there are enough facts
disclosed in these two WSJ articles to
suggest that gold loans could be one possible
source of funding for Mahonia`s commodity
swaps with Enron, and if so, these gold loans
could lead to the "gold exposure" denied by
JPM management.
2) An article about Enron in The New York
Times published on February 17, 2002, was
important for the following statement (note
the emphasis added by me):
"Partly because of the way the loans [by
JPM/Mahonia to Enron] were accounted for, the
company [i.e., Enron] reported A SURGE IN ITS
HEDGING ACTIVITY, ACCOMPLISHED USING
FINANCIAL CONTRACTS CALLED DERIVATIVES,
DURING ITS LAST FEW YEARS. When pressed about
the increase by skeptical analysts, Enron
officials said the numbers reflected hedges
for commodity trades, not new financing, the
analysts said."
The key point here is the "surge" in
derivative contracts entered into by Enron
"during its last few years." Each derivative
has two parties to the contract. To my
knowledge it has not been disclosed who took
the other side of the Enron contracts, but
the following information from the U.S.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
offers one possible answer.
According to its website, the OCC "charters,
regulates, and supervises national banks to
ensure a safe, sound, and competitive banking
system that supports the citizens,
communities, and economy of the United
States." As part of this responsibility it
collects information about the derivative
exposure of the nation`s banks.
The disclosure by Chase Manhattan Bank
(before its merger with Morgan Bank) is
telling. In three years from December 31,
1997, to December 31, 2000, there was a surge
in Chase`s gold derivative contracts from
$11.8 billion to $29.8 billion. Because of
the merger, it is not possible to determine
from the OCC reports Chase`s derivative
activity for 2001. But looking at the
derivative exposure of JPM on a combined
basis subsequent to its merger, it is
noteworthy that after the Enron bankruptcy at
the end of 2001, the gold derivative activity
of JPM was unchanged -- at $41.0 billion
reported at December 31, 2001, and $41.0
billion as of September 30, 2002, the latest
reporting period available. Thus, Chase`s
derivative contracts in gold surged while
Enron`s derivative contracts surged, and then
remained unchanged after Enron collapsed.
This pattern suggests that it is possible
Chase (and JPM as its successor) was the
counterparty to Enron`s derivative contracts.
Further, this growth in gold derivative
contracts provides further evidence to the
possibility I note above that gold was used
by Mahonia to fund the commodity swaps (the
so-called "disguised loans") that it entered
into with Enron.
The August 13, 2002, Wall Street Journal
article states:
"Mr. Mehta has had other high-profile scrapes
with controversy while at the bank. For
instance, Mr. Mehta came under fire for the
bank`s earlier arrangements with Sumitomo
Corp., the Japanese trading company and the
employer of a copper rogue trader named Yasuo
Hamanaka who lost $2.6 billion in copper
trades. Mr. Mehta`s team structured a number
of derivatives transactions that allowed Mr.
Hamanaka to raise money that didn`t appear to
senior Sumitomo executives as debt, said
people familiar with the deals."
Thus, perhaps the rumors circulating about
JPM`s gold exposure have some basis in fact.
In any case, the above material does
highlight the importance of your
investigation.
I note again Mr. Harrison`s statement: "We
don`t have any real exposure to gold."
Perhaps in your investigation you can ask him
to define the term "real." That JPM has
exposure to gold is undeniable from the OCC
reports. And there are different kinds of
exposure from derivatives -- price risk and
counter-arty risk.
It may be that through its derivative
contracts, JPM believes it does not have any
price exposure to gold. However, while the
gold market has been generally quiescent and
its price relatively stable the past few
years, gold in recent weeks has become very
active.
As we have learned from the collapse of Long
Term Capital Management, volatility
undermines what otherwise may appear to be a
safe derivatives position. So we will see in
the weeks and months ahead whether JPM`s
derivative exposure to the gold price is
indeed under control.
Given the size of its position, it may be
difficult for JPM to keep its price risk
controlled. JPM`s gold derivative exposure of
$41 billion of notional value represents 117
million ounces of gold -- a number that is
nearly 50 percent greater than all the gold
produced worldwide in a year. Thus it seems
likely that the gold market may not be able
to provide the liquidity JPM will need to
keep its gold derivative position in balance
in a period of increased gold price
volatility, which is a result that would
clearly negate Mr. Harrison`s contention that
JPM does not have "any real exposure to
gold."
Then there is counterparty risk, which is
always present because the financial position
of companies changes. Counterparties deemed
creditworthy when JPM entered into derivative
contracts may no longer be financially as
strong as before. Further, if in fact the
simultaneous surge in Enron`s and JPM`s
derivative contracts was not just
coincidental and they were counterparties to
each other, one has to wonder whether JPM has
any ongoing exposure to Enron in these
derivative contracts.
It is noteworthy that JPM`s most recent 10-Q
shows that derivative receivables rose $16.4
billion, or 23.0 percent, in the nine months
from December 31, 2001, to $87.5 billion as
of September 30. The net change is actually
25 percent when adjusting derivative
receivables as of December 31, 2001, to
reclassify to Other Assets the Enron-related
surety receivables from the insurance
companies in the case now settled.
Does this glaring (and potentially alarming)
surge in derivative receivables reported by
JPM reflect an inability of JPM`s
counterparties to deliver under their
derivative contract commitments?
And perhaps more importantly, to help
evaluate the accuracy and therefore
reliability of Mr. Harrison`s statement, what
portion of this derivative receivable relates
to gold?
The point is that certain aspects of JPM`s
derivative disclosure appear to be
inadequate. Thus, this is to ask that you
make a determination in your investigation
whether JPM`s disclosure about its gold
derivatives has been sufficient, and indeed
whether the statements by its management
about JPM`s gold exposure are not false or
misleading.
Lastly, your Internet site states: "The laws
and rules that govern the securities industry
in the United States derive from a simple and
straightforward concept: All investors,
whether large institutions or private
individuals, should have access to certain
basic facts about an investment prior to
buying it. To achieve this, the SEC requires
public companies to disclose meaningful
financial and other information to the
public, which provides a common pool of
knowledge for all investors to use to judge
for themselves if a company`s securities are
a good investment."
To achieve this objective, the SEC must
investigate JPM in order to determine whether
it is providing the investing public with
sufficient disclosure on its gold exposure,
which from the OCC reports is undeniable.
Further, the SEC must determine whether the
statements above by JPM management are false
or misleading.
I look forward to reading and learning the
results of your investigation.
For the sake of disclosure, I do not have any
position in the stock of JPM.
Yours truly,
James Turk
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Weiß jemand etwas näheres warum die Aktie heute um über 20% in den Keller geht??
Das kann doch nicht wahr sein!
Das kann doch nicht wahr sein!
die wurden abgestuft, mit kursziel 9 $.
in 2 tagen wohl ein klarer kauf!
in 2 tagen wohl ein klarer kauf!
Hmmmm. shit...
Könntest du bitte den Link reinstellen?
wäre nett, danke!
Könntest du bitte den Link reinstellen?
wäre nett, danke!
@Thinky
Ergänzend zu @optim3
dieser Kommentar, ist ca. 40 Minuten alt.
Aber "danach" gibt es immer Kommentare!
AKTUELLER KURS 14.57$
Grüße
Clochardanalyst
"Before the bell Monday, we alerted investors to the downside pressure on shares of Royal Gold perhaps as a result of a negative Barrons article. RGLD opened lower at $15.00 and had been trading in a range for the better part of the session. However, in the past few minutes the stock has picked up momentum and is moving lower."
Ergänzend zu @optim3
dieser Kommentar, ist ca. 40 Minuten alt.
Aber "danach" gibt es immer Kommentare!
AKTUELLER KURS 14.57$
Grüße
Clochardanalyst
"Before the bell Monday, we alerted investors to the downside pressure on shares of Royal Gold perhaps as a result of a negative Barrons article. RGLD opened lower at $15.00 and had been trading in a range for the better part of the session. However, in the past few minutes the stock has picked up momentum and is moving lower."
06:41 ET RGLD Royal Gold shares appear "wildly overvalued" -- Barron`s (19.45)
Barron`s suggests that stock`s 600% run in price over the past two years has left valuation stretched. Article focuses on metrics such as Price/Sales (30x trailing), earnings (65x), Price/Book (5.6x) and EBITDA (50x). "Indeed, giving the company the benefit of almost every doubt and making quite generous assumptions, the intrinsic value of Royal Gold is perhaps less than a third its current market price." Based on cash flow assumptions, Barron`s arrives at a value for the stock of $9.
At $350 / ounce, RGLD is worth $4.59 a share. At $400 an ounce, RGLD would be worth $5.14 a share, Barron`s reported, citing the source.
Barron`s suggests that stock`s 600% run in price over the past two years has left valuation stretched. Article focuses on metrics such as Price/Sales (30x trailing), earnings (65x), Price/Book (5.6x) and EBITDA (50x). "Indeed, giving the company the benefit of almost every doubt and making quite generous assumptions, the intrinsic value of Royal Gold is perhaps less than a third its current market price." Based on cash flow assumptions, Barron`s arrives at a value for the stock of $9.
At $350 / ounce, RGLD is worth $4.59 a share. At $400 an ounce, RGLD would be worth $5.14 a share, Barron`s reported, citing the source.
Ich glaube nichtm dass sich verkaufen jetzt noch lohnt oder? Bin bei 22 eingestiegen zwischenzeitlich 28 und jetzt 12,80! Was denkt ihr dazu?
Wenn man kein stop loss einhält...
Royal Gold ist in der tat teuer, genau wie Goldcorp, Meridian, Agnico-Eagle etc.
Insbesondere kann man bei Royalgold den Wert sehr genau berechnen, da es eben ein Royalty Wert ist. Hebel auf den Goldpreis ist auch kaum vorhanden (derselbe Grund).
Traurig, daß man erst einen Barron`s Artikel braucht,um aufzuwachen. Vielleicht sind ja jetzt die Zeiten vorbei in denen einige Werte (Royalg, Goldcorp, Meridian, Agnico) so taten, als hätten wir Goldpreise von USD 500, und andere Goldpreise von unter USD 300 einpreisen.
In Südafrika übrigens auch sehr schwache Minen, da der starke Rand sein übriges tut (R8/USD!!). Harmony hat die höchsten Kosten und reagiert damit am stärksten auf den starken Rand. Gold Fields und Anglo gehören noch immer zu den billigeren Werten.
Sinclair und Schultz, die "Profis", sind damit wohl auch ganz schön auf die Klappe gegangen.
Dummerweise lautet die Frage jetzt: Was ist eigentlich nicht zu teuer?
Barrick und Placer wohl nicht, sind dafür aber Hedger.
Anglo, Gold Fields und Harmony sind nur bei schwächerem Rand zu empfehlen, den sehe ich aber nicht. Außerdem kommen noch die Südafrikanischen Royalties.
Newmont und Kinross sind wohl derzeit von den großen Werten die besten: kaum gehegt, billig. Newmont hat z.B. ohne Yandal noch ca. 3.5 Mio Unzen gehegt.
Freeport kann man auch kaufen, Lihir evtl. (Hedges).
Bei den kleineren Werten müßte teilweise auch noch ausgefegt werden, da tummeln sich ebenfalls viele bubbles.
Gruß
S.
Royal Gold ist in der tat teuer, genau wie Goldcorp, Meridian, Agnico-Eagle etc.
Insbesondere kann man bei Royalgold den Wert sehr genau berechnen, da es eben ein Royalty Wert ist. Hebel auf den Goldpreis ist auch kaum vorhanden (derselbe Grund).
Traurig, daß man erst einen Barron`s Artikel braucht,um aufzuwachen. Vielleicht sind ja jetzt die Zeiten vorbei in denen einige Werte (Royalg, Goldcorp, Meridian, Agnico) so taten, als hätten wir Goldpreise von USD 500, und andere Goldpreise von unter USD 300 einpreisen.
In Südafrika übrigens auch sehr schwache Minen, da der starke Rand sein übriges tut (R8/USD!!). Harmony hat die höchsten Kosten und reagiert damit am stärksten auf den starken Rand. Gold Fields und Anglo gehören noch immer zu den billigeren Werten.
Sinclair und Schultz, die "Profis", sind damit wohl auch ganz schön auf die Klappe gegangen.
Dummerweise lautet die Frage jetzt: Was ist eigentlich nicht zu teuer?
Barrick und Placer wohl nicht, sind dafür aber Hedger.
Anglo, Gold Fields und Harmony sind nur bei schwächerem Rand zu empfehlen, den sehe ich aber nicht. Außerdem kommen noch die Südafrikanischen Royalties.
Newmont und Kinross sind wohl derzeit von den großen Werten die besten: kaum gehegt, billig. Newmont hat z.B. ohne Yandal noch ca. 3.5 Mio Unzen gehegt.
Freeport kann man auch kaufen, Lihir evtl. (Hedges).
Bei den kleineren Werten müßte teilweise auch noch ausgefegt werden, da tummeln sich ebenfalls viele bubbles.
Gruß
S.
@Thinky-Winky
Verkaufen lohnt sich IMMER.
Die Frage ist nur, ob du den Wert haben willst oder nicht. Wenn du ihn nicht haben willst -> verkaufen. Verlust/Gewinn ist egal. Man sollte sich nie nach dem Einstandspreis richten.
Andererseits sind Minen nach dem Gold/XAU Verhältnis jetzt fabelhaft billig.
Wenn du eine bessere Mine entdeckt solltest du switchen. Den Sektor ganz verlassen würde ich derzeit nicht.
Man muß sich eben nur darüber im klaren sein, daß Goldminen die Formel-1 Fahrzeuge unter den Aktien sind: Extrem schnell gegen die Wand gefahren.
Gruß
S.
Verkaufen lohnt sich IMMER.
Die Frage ist nur, ob du den Wert haben willst oder nicht. Wenn du ihn nicht haben willst -> verkaufen. Verlust/Gewinn ist egal. Man sollte sich nie nach dem Einstandspreis richten.
Andererseits sind Minen nach dem Gold/XAU Verhältnis jetzt fabelhaft billig.
Wenn du eine bessere Mine entdeckt solltest du switchen. Den Sektor ganz verlassen würde ich derzeit nicht.
Man muß sich eben nur darüber im klaren sein, daß Goldminen die Formel-1 Fahrzeuge unter den Aktien sind: Extrem schnell gegen die Wand gefahren.
Gruß
S.
RGLD (19.45): We`ll repeat Thursday`s comments for those of you who have been feeling Royal`s pain. To wit, a full, 0.618 correction of the bull cycle begun last July from around $9 would bring Royal down to 16.45. Corrections of that magnitude are considered both normal and healthy in powerful bull markets such as this one.
Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time"
Rick Ackerman
Full Trading Notes
for Mon Mar 3, 2003
Vamping at CNBC
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html
Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time"
Rick Ackerman
Full Trading Notes
for Mon Mar 3, 2003
Vamping at CNBC
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/current.html
Guest Commentary, by Hans F. Sennholz
Deficits Do Matter
March 3, 2003
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category…
Deficits Do Matter
March 3, 2003
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category…
A Royal Pain [Royal Gold (RGLD)] + Gold & More Trading Notes
By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box
http://news.goldseek.com/MarketWise/1046733846.php
By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box
http://news.goldseek.com/MarketWise/1046733846.php
"US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the writer`s times gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 82 times which was the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001. The writer by her method came up with a value under US $10."
"Note:
Because the difference is so large and in the interest of time there is no need to go back and rationalize the foreign exchange number. Note also that the price of gold is now $349 and we are using an example that was established when gold was $280.
Now be careful because we are comparing a large company to a smaller but a growing concern. However, the value is so much different from the article in Barrons that I think we need not go any further. I believe that my point has been made. I can only conclude that the writer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares now for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. The leads for this article came from the writer`s source that is admitted to be short the stock. Did he cover today?"
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Q&A
March 03, 2003
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
"Note:
Because the difference is so large and in the interest of time there is no need to go back and rationalize the foreign exchange number. Note also that the price of gold is now $349 and we are using an example that was established when gold was $280.
Now be careful because we are comparing a large company to a smaller but a growing concern. However, the value is so much different from the article in Barrons that I think we need not go any further. I believe that my point has been made. I can only conclude that the writer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares now for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. The leads for this article came from the writer`s source that is admitted to be short the stock. Did he cover today?"
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Q&A
March 03, 2003
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
www.financialsense.com/
The financial media buries the story. Wall Street seldom talks about it. Fed officials and economists see it as a positive development. I’m talking about the trade deficit, which is spiraling out of control. The US is now borrowing close to $10 billion a week from overseas investors to pay for consumption. Our current trade deficit is now 5% of GDP. A good majority of this trade deficit is with China. China is now a major holder of US debt. The trade imbalances and investment balances with China are now running close to $150 billion per year.
As a financial barometer of future storms, that barometer is now flashing a major warning sign, telling me a major storm is approaching. The combination of financial and corporate debt, consumer debt, and government debt is now running at rates over $2 trillion a year. It is now taking $4.8 dollars of debt to produce $1 in GDP. The government deficit is now running at an annual rate of $300 billion and will get larger in the months ahead because of war and another dip into recession. In fact, at the rate of which debt is being accumulated, it looks like we are surely headed for another depression.
About the only sector that is kicking in is consumer spending, fed by mortgage debt and equity drawdowns of homeowner equity. Mortgage brokers around the country are experiencing a brisk business in equity refinancing and equity cash withdrawals. My friend the mortgage broker is now working seven days a week to keep up with a flood of new mortgages that keep coming in each day. Homeowners and in particular households are now on their last legs as household debt levels grow at an annual rate approaching 10 percent. Without new refi money consumer spending would come to a complete standstill. Without rising stock markets consumers have pulled back on spending and have recently increased savings.
As shown in the next two charts, household net worth has plummeted leaving only the homeowner equity as the last prop to support consumption. Next to homeowner equity borrowings the only other sector holding up the US economy is government deficit spending. Governments at all levels from city, to state, to the federal government are spending more money than they are taking in. Tax revenues are shrinking as the economy shrinks and more workers lose their jobs, companies go bankrupt and the economy slows even further.
The financial media buries the story. Wall Street seldom talks about it. Fed officials and economists see it as a positive development. I’m talking about the trade deficit, which is spiraling out of control. The US is now borrowing close to $10 billion a week from overseas investors to pay for consumption. Our current trade deficit is now 5% of GDP. A good majority of this trade deficit is with China. China is now a major holder of US debt. The trade imbalances and investment balances with China are now running close to $150 billion per year.
As a financial barometer of future storms, that barometer is now flashing a major warning sign, telling me a major storm is approaching. The combination of financial and corporate debt, consumer debt, and government debt is now running at rates over $2 trillion a year. It is now taking $4.8 dollars of debt to produce $1 in GDP. The government deficit is now running at an annual rate of $300 billion and will get larger in the months ahead because of war and another dip into recession. In fact, at the rate of which debt is being accumulated, it looks like we are surely headed for another depression.
About the only sector that is kicking in is consumer spending, fed by mortgage debt and equity drawdowns of homeowner equity. Mortgage brokers around the country are experiencing a brisk business in equity refinancing and equity cash withdrawals. My friend the mortgage broker is now working seven days a week to keep up with a flood of new mortgages that keep coming in each day. Homeowners and in particular households are now on their last legs as household debt levels grow at an annual rate approaching 10 percent. Without new refi money consumer spending would come to a complete standstill. Without rising stock markets consumers have pulled back on spending and have recently increased savings.
As shown in the next two charts, household net worth has plummeted leaving only the homeowner equity as the last prop to support consumption. Next to homeowner equity borrowings the only other sector holding up the US economy is government deficit spending. Governments at all levels from city, to state, to the federal government are spending more money than they are taking in. Tax revenues are shrinking as the economy shrinks and more workers lose their jobs, companies go bankrupt and the economy slows even further.
TO GOLD LONGS...LEWIS ON RGLD & gold
Lance Lewis...his wrap up has a detailed piece on rgld
"That gives us a second total of $112.15 mil. When we add in the company’s cash of $28 mil, we get the following calculation: $169.58 mil + $112.15 mil + $28 mil = $309.73 mil/ 19.06 mil shares = $16.25 a share"
"And in my opinion, gold will once again move back to a one to one ratio with the Dow, just as it did during the last bear market. So that means if the Fed can manage to inflate and keep the Dow at 5000 or 4000 or wherever, then gold will be at the same price per ounce. Try calculating RGLD’s theoretical value by plugging in $2000 or $4000 gold above just for fun."
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8…
Lance Lewis...his wrap up has a detailed piece on rgld
"That gives us a second total of $112.15 mil. When we add in the company’s cash of $28 mil, we get the following calculation: $169.58 mil + $112.15 mil + $28 mil = $309.73 mil/ 19.06 mil shares = $16.25 a share"
"And in my opinion, gold will once again move back to a one to one ratio with the Dow, just as it did during the last bear market. So that means if the Fed can manage to inflate and keep the Dow at 5000 or 4000 or wherever, then gold will be at the same price per ounce. Try calculating RGLD’s theoretical value by plugging in $2000 or $4000 gold above just for fun."
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8…
@p.wedemeier
Diese Rechnung ist totaler Schwachsinn.
Der Autor bewertet folgende Assets:
GSR1= 5% (the sliding scale NSR jumps to 5% over $470) of 6.36 mil proven and probable (P&P) reserves x $500 oz gold= $159 mil
BEI USD 350 GOLDPREIS NUR 111 MIO
= -48 MIO
GSR3= .7125% x 6.36 mil P&P x $500 oz gold = $3.18 mil (*Note: in the Barron`s article, this GSR3 was even mislabeled as GSR2. GSR2 is in fact a HIGHLY leveraged royalty (9% above $470) based on any finds on the property outside of the current Pipeline mine)
USD 350 POG: USD 2.2 MIO
= -1 MIO
NVR1= .37% x 4 mil P&P x $500 oz gold = $7.4 mil
USD 350 POG: USD 5.25 MIO
= -2.1 MIO
High Desert Acquisition:
SJ Claims (operated by ABX) = 1% x 16.43 mil P&P x $500 = $82.15 mil
USD 350 POG: USD 57.5 MIO
= -25 MIO
Leeville (operated by NEM) = 2% x 3 mil P&P x $500 = $30 mil
BEI USD 350 POG: 21 MIO
= -9 MIO
Insgesamt ca. 85 MIO weniger bei derzeitigem Goldpreis. Dazu muß man noch sagen, daß die Royalty Raten derzeit niedriger liegen (hier werden ja immer die höchsten Raten angesetzt).
Macht also selbst nach dieser optimistischen Rechnung
$169.58 mil + $112.15 mil + $28 mil -85 mil = 225 mil
225 Mio / 19 Mio Aktien = USD 11.84
Derzeitiger Wert also vermutlich so USD 10.
Interessant wird es erst bei höheren Goldpreisen, z.B. USD 3000
Dann nämlich hätte man als Wert
(170 mil + 112 mil)/500 * 3000 + 28 mil = USD 1720 MIO
USD 1720 MIO / 19 MIO Aktien = USD 90 /Aktie
D.h. bei +750% beim Goldpreis gewinnt Royalgold nur 590%. Da investiere ich lieber in phys. Gold...
Gruß
S.
Diese Rechnung ist totaler Schwachsinn.
Der Autor bewertet folgende Assets:
GSR1= 5% (the sliding scale NSR jumps to 5% over $470) of 6.36 mil proven and probable (P&P) reserves x $500 oz gold= $159 mil
BEI USD 350 GOLDPREIS NUR 111 MIO
= -48 MIO
GSR3= .7125% x 6.36 mil P&P x $500 oz gold = $3.18 mil (*Note: in the Barron`s article, this GSR3 was even mislabeled as GSR2. GSR2 is in fact a HIGHLY leveraged royalty (9% above $470) based on any finds on the property outside of the current Pipeline mine)
USD 350 POG: USD 2.2 MIO
= -1 MIO
NVR1= .37% x 4 mil P&P x $500 oz gold = $7.4 mil
USD 350 POG: USD 5.25 MIO
= -2.1 MIO
High Desert Acquisition:
SJ Claims (operated by ABX) = 1% x 16.43 mil P&P x $500 = $82.15 mil
USD 350 POG: USD 57.5 MIO
= -25 MIO
Leeville (operated by NEM) = 2% x 3 mil P&P x $500 = $30 mil
BEI USD 350 POG: 21 MIO
= -9 MIO
Insgesamt ca. 85 MIO weniger bei derzeitigem Goldpreis. Dazu muß man noch sagen, daß die Royalty Raten derzeit niedriger liegen (hier werden ja immer die höchsten Raten angesetzt).
Macht also selbst nach dieser optimistischen Rechnung
$169.58 mil + $112.15 mil + $28 mil -85 mil = 225 mil
225 Mio / 19 Mio Aktien = USD 11.84
Derzeitiger Wert also vermutlich so USD 10.
Interessant wird es erst bei höheren Goldpreisen, z.B. USD 3000
Dann nämlich hätte man als Wert
(170 mil + 112 mil)/500 * 3000 + 28 mil = USD 1720 MIO
USD 1720 MIO / 19 MIO Aktien = USD 90 /Aktie
D.h. bei +750% beim Goldpreis gewinnt Royalgold nur 590%. Da investiere ich lieber in phys. Gold...
Gruß
S.
@Saccard
"proven and probable (P&P) reserves"
Was ist mit den Ressourcen "measured, indicated, inferred"...vergißt Du die bei Deiner Rechnung nicht? Würde ich zumindest mit einem 40 %-Riskoabschlag mit aufnehmen.
Gruß
Sovereign, der RGLD nicht hält und momentan auch nicht ans kaufen denkt.
"proven and probable (P&P) reserves"
Was ist mit den Ressourcen "measured, indicated, inferred"...vergißt Du die bei Deiner Rechnung nicht? Würde ich zumindest mit einem 40 %-Riskoabschlag mit aufnehmen.
Gruß
Sovereign, der RGLD nicht hält und momentan auch nicht ans kaufen denkt.
@Sovereign
Genau, bei höheren Goldpreisen wachsen natürlich die Reserven. Allerdings steigen auch die Kosten und man müßte genau wissen, wie hoch die Kosten dann sind.
Inferred ist übrigend ohnehin egal, einige Firmen führen solche Zahlen gar nicht erst auf.
Trotzdem bleibt als Fakt, daß RGLD nicht mehr als USD 10 wert ist. Man könnte sonst ja auch bei Gold Fields 78 Mio Unzen * USD 300 = 23400 MIO
23400 MIO / 470 MIO = USD 49
rechnen. Wohlgemerkt, als jetziger Wert!
Gruß
S.
Genau, bei höheren Goldpreisen wachsen natürlich die Reserven. Allerdings steigen auch die Kosten und man müßte genau wissen, wie hoch die Kosten dann sind.
Inferred ist übrigend ohnehin egal, einige Firmen führen solche Zahlen gar nicht erst auf.
Trotzdem bleibt als Fakt, daß RGLD nicht mehr als USD 10 wert ist. Man könnte sonst ja auch bei Gold Fields 78 Mio Unzen * USD 300 = 23400 MIO
23400 MIO / 470 MIO = USD 49
rechnen. Wohlgemerkt, als jetziger Wert!
Gruß
S.
Top 20 Largest Consolidated Short Position Report
Please find below the Top 20 Largest Consolidated Short Position Report Highlights. The report
is produced twice monthly, effective the 15th and the end of each month. The report below covers
the 2-week period ending February 15th, 2003.
Issue Name Symbol As of Feb. 15 As of Jan. 31 Net Change
NORTEL NETWORKS
CORPORATION NT 65,226,351 61,916,607 3,309,744
BOMBARDIER INC. CL `B` SV BBD.B 30,645,681 30,536,804 108,877
DOMTAR INC. DTC 14,667,877 14,378,877 289,000
ATI TECHNOLOGIES
INCORPORATED ATY 13,937,172 13,034,281 902,891
QUEBECOR WORLD INC. SV IQW 12,087,856 12,266,438 -178,582
BEMA GOLD CORPORATION J BGO 11,751,697 10,957,998 793,699
INCO LIMITED N 11,722,378 12,224,949 -502,571
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION K 10,870,948 21,862,599 -10,991,651
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION ABX 10,861,384 10,489,533 371,851
STELCO INC. SERIES `A` STE.A 10,432,480 10,634,109 -201,629
SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL
CORPORATION RV S 9,584,402 9,585,283 -881
SHAW COMMUNICATIONS INC. CL
`B` NV SJR.B 9,440,547 11,735,846 -2,295,299
ROYAL GROUP TECHNOLOGIES
LIMITED SV RYG 9,122,909 8,489,037 633,872
CELESTICA INC. SV CLS 8,725,160 8,362,031 363,129
TECK COMINCO LIMITED CL `B` SV TEK.B 8,587,119 8,650,462 -63,343
ZARLINK SEMICONDUCTOR INC. ZL 7,412,406 7,997,613 -585,207
GOLDCORP INC. G 6,339,457 6,690,730 -351,273
BCE INC. BCE 6,328,797 6,036,327 292,470
AIR CANADA AC 6,119,807 5,432,665 687,142
CAMBIOR INC. CBJ 5,606,519 5,114,411 492,108
Unter den 20 meistgeshorteten can. Aktien 5 reine Goldwerte + weitere Rohstoffwerte.
Das wird ja langsam pervers.
Gruß
S.
Please find below the Top 20 Largest Consolidated Short Position Report Highlights. The report
is produced twice monthly, effective the 15th and the end of each month. The report below covers
the 2-week period ending February 15th, 2003.
Issue Name Symbol As of Feb. 15 As of Jan. 31 Net Change
NORTEL NETWORKS
CORPORATION NT 65,226,351 61,916,607 3,309,744
BOMBARDIER INC. CL `B` SV BBD.B 30,645,681 30,536,804 108,877
DOMTAR INC. DTC 14,667,877 14,378,877 289,000
ATI TECHNOLOGIES
INCORPORATED ATY 13,937,172 13,034,281 902,891
QUEBECOR WORLD INC. SV IQW 12,087,856 12,266,438 -178,582
BEMA GOLD CORPORATION J BGO 11,751,697 10,957,998 793,699
INCO LIMITED N 11,722,378 12,224,949 -502,571
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION K 10,870,948 21,862,599 -10,991,651
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION ABX 10,861,384 10,489,533 371,851
STELCO INC. SERIES `A` STE.A 10,432,480 10,634,109 -201,629
SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL
CORPORATION RV S 9,584,402 9,585,283 -881
SHAW COMMUNICATIONS INC. CL
`B` NV SJR.B 9,440,547 11,735,846 -2,295,299
ROYAL GROUP TECHNOLOGIES
LIMITED SV RYG 9,122,909 8,489,037 633,872
CELESTICA INC. SV CLS 8,725,160 8,362,031 363,129
TECK COMINCO LIMITED CL `B` SV TEK.B 8,587,119 8,650,462 -63,343
ZARLINK SEMICONDUCTOR INC. ZL 7,412,406 7,997,613 -585,207
GOLDCORP INC. G 6,339,457 6,690,730 -351,273
BCE INC. BCE 6,328,797 6,036,327 292,470
AIR CANADA AC 6,119,807 5,432,665 687,142
CAMBIOR INC. CBJ 5,606,519 5,114,411 492,108
Unter den 20 meistgeshorteten can. Aktien 5 reine Goldwerte + weitere Rohstoffwerte.
Das wird ja langsam pervers.
Gruß
S.
@Saccard
Man sollte auch nicht vergessen, daß das royalty-business weniger mit Risiken verbunden ist, als die reine Goldförderung.
Außerdem dürfte Royal Gold einen "Seltenheitsaufschlag" haben, andere reine royalty-Unternehmen sind mir momentan nicht bekannt nachdem Franco Nevada mit Newmont und Repadre mit Iamgold fusionierte.
Gruß
Sovereign
Man sollte auch nicht vergessen, daß das royalty-business weniger mit Risiken verbunden ist, als die reine Goldförderung.
Außerdem dürfte Royal Gold einen "Seltenheitsaufschlag" haben, andere reine royalty-Unternehmen sind mir momentan nicht bekannt nachdem Franco Nevada mit Newmont und Repadre mit Iamgold fusionierte.
Gruß
Sovereign
@Saccard
Ich glaube deine Antwort #63 ist absoluter Schwachsinn!
RGLD momentan > $14! nicht mit $10!
Ich glaube deine Antwort #63 ist absoluter Schwachsinn!
RGLD momentan > $14! nicht mit $10!
A short seller of Royal Gold feeds story to Barrons
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Jim, An article in Barrons hammered Royal Gold. What do you think?
A: I read that article and was quite surprised by it. Let me explain to you why before I look at valuation models. I do not comment on shares but we can do some simple mathematics together.
Regarding the article:
a. It said its lead came from a short seller of Royal Gold.
b. It never made a comparison to the last royalty company that was popular, Franco Nevada.
c. By the method of valuation given, it seemed to me that no gold company in this writer`s opinion had much market value.
d. The writer values the company by taking 10 years revenues times one.
e. The writer fails to admit that in the market today there is nothing comparable to Royal Gold.
f. The writer gives Royal Gold no upside growth in this 10-year period used for evaluation.
g. The writer gives no credit for the freedom from financing and no derivative involvement that Royal Gold enjoys.
Therefore let`s do some simple mathematics concerning Franco Nevada`s valuation on the last day of its trading before it went into Newmont Mining.
Using the writers times Total Revenues Approach:
Franco Nevada:
1/ Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was $21.93 on February 18th 2002.
2/ Number of shares outstanding 158,661,470.
3/ Revenue last reported Dec. 2001 $40,200,000.
4/ Value at takeover:
158,661,470 shares X C$21.93 closing price equals $3,479,446,037.
5/ Therefore the dollar value of the take over of Franco Nevada when gold was $280 was C$3,479,446,037.00.
6/ Therefore, we take the revenue reported for fiscal year 2001 of $40,200,000 and divide it into the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7/ Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001 revenues. The figure times cash flow was 72 times.
Now lets us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold:
1.Total Revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2. According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares outstanding.
3. Therefore US $13,000,000 times 82 divided by 18,550,614 will give us a statistical calculation of a statistical value of Royal Gold versus Franco Nevada at the time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4. US$13,000,000 annual revenues times 82 is US$1,066,000,000 total value on the Franco Nevada model.
5. US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the writer`s times gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 82 times which was the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001. The writer by her method came up with a value under US $10.
Note:
Because the difference is so large and in the interest of time there is no need to go back and rationalize the foreign exchange number. Note also that the price of gold is now $349 and we are using an example that was established when gold was $280.
Now be careful because we are comparing a large company to a smaller but a growing concern. However, the value is so much different from the article in Barrons that I think we need not go any further. I believe that my point has been made. I can only conclude that the writer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares now for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. The leads for this article came from the writer`s source that is admitted to be short the stock. Did he cover today?
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: Jim, An article in Barrons hammered Royal Gold. What do you think?
A: I read that article and was quite surprised by it. Let me explain to you why before I look at valuation models. I do not comment on shares but we can do some simple mathematics together.
Regarding the article:
a. It said its lead came from a short seller of Royal Gold.
b. It never made a comparison to the last royalty company that was popular, Franco Nevada.
c. By the method of valuation given, it seemed to me that no gold company in this writer`s opinion had much market value.
d. The writer values the company by taking 10 years revenues times one.
e. The writer fails to admit that in the market today there is nothing comparable to Royal Gold.
f. The writer gives Royal Gold no upside growth in this 10-year period used for evaluation.
g. The writer gives no credit for the freedom from financing and no derivative involvement that Royal Gold enjoys.
Therefore let`s do some simple mathematics concerning Franco Nevada`s valuation on the last day of its trading before it went into Newmont Mining.
Using the writers times Total Revenues Approach:
Franco Nevada:
1/ Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was $21.93 on February 18th 2002.
2/ Number of shares outstanding 158,661,470.
3/ Revenue last reported Dec. 2001 $40,200,000.
4/ Value at takeover:
158,661,470 shares X C$21.93 closing price equals $3,479,446,037.
5/ Therefore the dollar value of the take over of Franco Nevada when gold was $280 was C$3,479,446,037.00.
6/ Therefore, we take the revenue reported for fiscal year 2001 of $40,200,000 and divide it into the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7/ Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001 revenues. The figure times cash flow was 72 times.
Now lets us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold:
1.Total Revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2. According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares outstanding.
3. Therefore US $13,000,000 times 82 divided by 18,550,614 will give us a statistical calculation of a statistical value of Royal Gold versus Franco Nevada at the time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4. US$13,000,000 annual revenues times 82 is US$1,066,000,000 total value on the Franco Nevada model.
5. US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the writer`s times gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 82 times which was the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001. The writer by her method came up with a value under US $10.
Note:
Because the difference is so large and in the interest of time there is no need to go back and rationalize the foreign exchange number. Note also that the price of gold is now $349 and we are using an example that was established when gold was $280.
Now be careful because we are comparing a large company to a smaller but a growing concern. However, the value is so much different from the article in Barrons that I think we need not go any further. I believe that my point has been made. I can only conclude that the writer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares now for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. The leads for this article came from the writer`s source that is admitted to be short the stock. Did he cover today?
From todays Financial Sense wrap up article...
J.P. Morgan ordered by Japanese government to suspend stock trading for ten days due to the firm’s manipulation of the bond market. Government bars J.P. Morgan from participating in government bond auctions from March 3-14.
So on a day like today we had executives pleading guilty, being investigated and Wall Street firms such as Morgan being temporarily suspended from trading due to manipulative stock and bond practices. We had more evidence that sales and profits at companies continue to decline while the economy, at least the manufacturing sector, looks like it is heading back into recession. As an investor if you need a reality check all that is necessary is to look at the daily hemlines and contrast them to the spin coming out of Wall Street and the financial media. Following their advice could be hazardous to your financial health. We believe that any recommendations coming out of Wall Street should be accompanied by the following warning.
J.P. Morgan ordered by Japanese government to suspend stock trading for ten days due to the firm’s manipulation of the bond market. Government bars J.P. Morgan from participating in government bond auctions from March 3-14.
So on a day like today we had executives pleading guilty, being investigated and Wall Street firms such as Morgan being temporarily suspended from trading due to manipulative stock and bond practices. We had more evidence that sales and profits at companies continue to decline while the economy, at least the manufacturing sector, looks like it is heading back into recession. As an investor if you need a reality check all that is necessary is to look at the daily hemlines and contrast them to the spin coming out of Wall Street and the financial media. Following their advice could be hazardous to your financial health. We believe that any recommendations coming out of Wall Street should be accompanied by the following warning.
RGLD $57 ODER MEHR WERT! (Jim Sinclair)
THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH
Gold stocks valued below spot price
Some producers trading as if metal is 10 percent lower
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET March 3, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Not six months ago, gold miners were the stock market`s biggest money-maker. Now they`re the new whipping boys.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…
Gold stocks valued below spot price
Some producers trading as if metal is 10 percent lower
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET March 3, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Not six months ago, gold miners were the stock market`s biggest money-maker. Now they`re the new whipping boys.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…
@peter
Wir sprechen hier über WERT nicht Preis.
Die Leute machen sich einfach etwas vor, wenn sie glauben der Wert wäre so hoch.
Der Trick, der gravierende Faktor, bei der Bewertung von Royalty-Aktien ist die Fähigkeit des Managements. Lassonde ist nun wirklich genial, über Royalgolds Management weiß ich nichts, viele Deals scheinen die nicht gemacht zu haben.
Der Vergleich mit Franco läßt Jim Sinclair langsam peinlich aussehen. Kein Wort davon, daß Franco 600 Mio USD cash hatte. Kein Wort davon, daß man 20% Anteil (USD 400 Mio) an Normandy hatte. Unter rausrechnen der assets, die nicht zum Umsatz beigetragen haben und über die Royalgold nicht verfügt (Normandy, 600 Mio cash, Aber, Öl) kommt man nach dem Franco-Nevada Modell auf ca. USD 25, nicht 57. Und da Franco damals gerade übernommen wurde und daher nochmal etwas Premium drin hatte, wohl so ca. USD 20 bis 25.
Also: Royalty Werte gab es nie und wird es nie unter NAV geben. USD 14 Preis zu USD 10 "ermitteltem" Wert ist jedenfalls schon ein ganz gutes Verhältnis. Was zählt ist Management und nochmals Management. Als Beispiel nur der Franco Deal mit Echo Bay und TVX: die Anleihen billigst aufgekauft, in Aktien gewandelt und dann zur Gründung der neuen Kinross beigetragen. Gewinn: mehrere 100% (ich glaube es ist nah an einem 10-bagger).
Gruß
S.
Wir sprechen hier über WERT nicht Preis.
Die Leute machen sich einfach etwas vor, wenn sie glauben der Wert wäre so hoch.
Der Trick, der gravierende Faktor, bei der Bewertung von Royalty-Aktien ist die Fähigkeit des Managements. Lassonde ist nun wirklich genial, über Royalgolds Management weiß ich nichts, viele Deals scheinen die nicht gemacht zu haben.
Der Vergleich mit Franco läßt Jim Sinclair langsam peinlich aussehen. Kein Wort davon, daß Franco 600 Mio USD cash hatte. Kein Wort davon, daß man 20% Anteil (USD 400 Mio) an Normandy hatte. Unter rausrechnen der assets, die nicht zum Umsatz beigetragen haben und über die Royalgold nicht verfügt (Normandy, 600 Mio cash, Aber, Öl) kommt man nach dem Franco-Nevada Modell auf ca. USD 25, nicht 57. Und da Franco damals gerade übernommen wurde und daher nochmal etwas Premium drin hatte, wohl so ca. USD 20 bis 25.
Also: Royalty Werte gab es nie und wird es nie unter NAV geben. USD 14 Preis zu USD 10 "ermitteltem" Wert ist jedenfalls schon ein ganz gutes Verhältnis. Was zählt ist Management und nochmals Management. Als Beispiel nur der Franco Deal mit Echo Bay und TVX: die Anleihen billigst aufgekauft, in Aktien gewandelt und dann zur Gründung der neuen Kinross beigetragen. Gewinn: mehrere 100% (ich glaube es ist nah an einem 10-bagger).
Gruß
S.
WHAT WORRIES WARREN
Avoiding a `Mega-Catastrophe`
Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. The dangers are now latent--but they could be lethal.
FORTUNE
Monday, March 3, 2003
By Warren Buffett
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,42…
Avoiding a `Mega-Catastrophe`
Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. The dangers are now latent--but they could be lethal.
FORTUNE
Monday, March 3, 2003
By Warren Buffett
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,42…
Q & A with Jim Sinclair
Mon Mar 3, 2003
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/QAndA.asp?ReportID=54470&_Title=B…
Mon Mar 3, 2003
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/QAndA.asp?ReportID=54470&_Title=B…
Royal Gold Reports Reserve Additions at Royalty Properties
Tuesday March 4, 1:38 pm ET
* New Reserves Replace 83% of Pipeline Mining Complex 2002 Production; Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD - News; Toronto: RGL - News) in its annual ore reserve statement today announced updated reserve estimates for its royalty properties. Results at all royalty properties were positive. Reserves at the Pipeline Mining Complex were replaced to the extent of 83% of the ounces produced during calendar 2002, and additional mineralized material grew approximately 52 percent.
Reserves, at the end of calendar 2002, at the Pipeline Mining Complex are approximately 6.6 million ounces, compared to approximately 6.8 million ounces at the end of calendar 2001. Approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold were produced in calendar 2002 at the Pipeline Mining Complex, which is the fifth consecutive year of over one million ounces of production.
At Crossroads, mineralized material increased about 90 percent.
Reserves at Bald Mountain increased by 56%, net of production of 170,400 ounces during calendar 2002. At the Martha mine, silver equivalent reserves increased 96% from 2.7 million ounces to 5.3 million ounces. Reserves for the SJ Claims and the Leeville project were also added to Royal Gold`s royalty portfolio, as a result of the acquisition of High Desert Mineral Resources in December 2002.
Stanley Dempsey, Chairman, President & CEO of Royal Gold, Inc said, "We are very pleased with reserve replacement, and the addition of more reserves and mineralized material at properties where we hold royalties. Discovery of mineralized material and conversion of that material to ore reserves is a key driver of value for a gold royalty company. We are happy to be associated with high quality mine operators who have the technical and financial capability to keep adding reserves to the mines that are subject to our royalties."
Pipeline Mining Complex, Lander County, Nevada
The Company holds two sliding scale gross smelter return royalties ("GSR1" and "GSR2"), a fixed gross royalty ("GSR3"), and a net value royalty ("NVR1") on the Pipeline Mining Complex, in Lander County, Nevada. The GSR1 royalty covers the current mine footprint, and the GSR2 ("Super") royalty covers any reserves that are developed on the claim block lying outside the current mine footprint. The GSR2 royalty pays out at a rate that is 80% higher than that of GSR1, at all gold prices. The GSR3 royalty is a 0.71% fixed rate for the life of the mine. The 0.37% NVR1 covers production from the GAS Claims, an area of interest of approximately 4,000 acres including the South Pipeline deposit and Crossroads area, but not including the Pipeline pit. The NVR1 is calculated by deducting processing-related costs, but this royalty is not burdened by mining costs. Current production from the Pipeline Mining Complex is subject to GSR1, GSR3, and NVR1.
The Pipeline Mining Complex is owned by the Cortez Joint Venture ("Cortez"), a joint venture between Placer Cortez Inc. (60%), a subsidiary of Placer Dome Inc. and Kennecott Explorations (Australia) Ltd. (40%), a subsidiary of Rio Tinto, and is one of the largest gold producers in North America.
Placer Dome informed the Company that it has updated its ore reserve estimates for the Pipeline Mining Complex, as of December 31, 2002, based on a gold price projection of $300 per ounce. The royalty positions held by Royal Gold at the Pipeline Mining Complex relate to the following reserves as of December 31, 2002:
Tuesday March 4, 1:38 pm ET
* New Reserves Replace 83% of Pipeline Mining Complex 2002 Production; Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD - News; Toronto: RGL - News) in its annual ore reserve statement today announced updated reserve estimates for its royalty properties. Results at all royalty properties were positive. Reserves at the Pipeline Mining Complex were replaced to the extent of 83% of the ounces produced during calendar 2002, and additional mineralized material grew approximately 52 percent.
Reserves, at the end of calendar 2002, at the Pipeline Mining Complex are approximately 6.6 million ounces, compared to approximately 6.8 million ounces at the end of calendar 2001. Approximately 1.1 million ounces of gold were produced in calendar 2002 at the Pipeline Mining Complex, which is the fifth consecutive year of over one million ounces of production.
At Crossroads, mineralized material increased about 90 percent.
Reserves at Bald Mountain increased by 56%, net of production of 170,400 ounces during calendar 2002. At the Martha mine, silver equivalent reserves increased 96% from 2.7 million ounces to 5.3 million ounces. Reserves for the SJ Claims and the Leeville project were also added to Royal Gold`s royalty portfolio, as a result of the acquisition of High Desert Mineral Resources in December 2002.
Stanley Dempsey, Chairman, President & CEO of Royal Gold, Inc said, "We are very pleased with reserve replacement, and the addition of more reserves and mineralized material at properties where we hold royalties. Discovery of mineralized material and conversion of that material to ore reserves is a key driver of value for a gold royalty company. We are happy to be associated with high quality mine operators who have the technical and financial capability to keep adding reserves to the mines that are subject to our royalties."
Pipeline Mining Complex, Lander County, Nevada
The Company holds two sliding scale gross smelter return royalties ("GSR1" and "GSR2"), a fixed gross royalty ("GSR3"), and a net value royalty ("NVR1") on the Pipeline Mining Complex, in Lander County, Nevada. The GSR1 royalty covers the current mine footprint, and the GSR2 ("Super") royalty covers any reserves that are developed on the claim block lying outside the current mine footprint. The GSR2 royalty pays out at a rate that is 80% higher than that of GSR1, at all gold prices. The GSR3 royalty is a 0.71% fixed rate for the life of the mine. The 0.37% NVR1 covers production from the GAS Claims, an area of interest of approximately 4,000 acres including the South Pipeline deposit and Crossroads area, but not including the Pipeline pit. The NVR1 is calculated by deducting processing-related costs, but this royalty is not burdened by mining costs. Current production from the Pipeline Mining Complex is subject to GSR1, GSR3, and NVR1.
The Pipeline Mining Complex is owned by the Cortez Joint Venture ("Cortez"), a joint venture between Placer Cortez Inc. (60%), a subsidiary of Placer Dome Inc. and Kennecott Explorations (Australia) Ltd. (40%), a subsidiary of Rio Tinto, and is one of the largest gold producers in North America.
Placer Dome informed the Company that it has updated its ore reserve estimates for the Pipeline Mining Complex, as of December 31, 2002, based on a gold price projection of $300 per ounce. The royalty positions held by Royal Gold at the Pipeline Mining Complex relate to the following reserves as of December 31, 2002:
Attention Business Editor:
Royal Gold Reports Reserve Additions at Royalty Properties
* New Reserves Replace 83% of Pipeline Mining Complex 2002 Production;
Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty
Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /CNW/ --
ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD; Toronto: RGL)
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/March2003/04/c6852.html
Royal Gold Reports Reserve Additions at Royalty Properties
* New Reserves Replace 83% of Pipeline Mining Complex 2002 Production;
Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty
Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /CNW/ --
ROYAL GOLD, INC. (Nasdaq: RGLD; Toronto: RGL)
http://www.newswire.ca/releases/March2003/04/c6852.html
"NOTE: Management will hold a conference call on Friday, March 7, 2003, at
12:00 noon Eastern (10:00 a.m. Mountain; 9:00 a.m. Pacific) time. The call
will be simultaneously carried on the Company`s web site at www.royalgold.com
under the "Presentations" section. A replay on the web site will be available
approximately two hours after the call ends. The conference call will also
available by calling 800-603-2779 or 706-634-7230."
12:00 noon Eastern (10:00 a.m. Mountain; 9:00 a.m. Pacific) time. The call
will be simultaneously carried on the Company`s web site at www.royalgold.com
under the "Presentations" section. A replay on the web site will be available
approximately two hours after the call ends. The conference call will also
available by calling 800-603-2779 or 706-634-7230."
www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
General Editorial
A MESSAGE TO THE GOLD COMMUNITY
If you agree with the contents of this Letter to the Editor at Barron`s Financial Weekly then I suggest you send, in your own words, an email to Barron`s requesting a review of the article that was written concerning Royal Gold.
Barron`s email address is: online.editors@barrons.com
Barron`s fax NUMBER IS: 1-800-975-8618
Letter to the Editor:
Dear Sir or Madam:
I am royally disappointed by Ms. Brammer`s article, "Royal Disappointment" for several reasons: Ms. Brammer`s source of information is an admitted short seller of Royal Gold; she makes no attempt to compare Royal Gold to the obvious comparable example, the royalty company, Franco Nevada; by the end of her method of valuation computation, no gold company has much market value; she values the company by taking 10 years revenues multiplied by one; she gives no upside growth in the 10-year period used for evaluation; and she gives no credit for the freedom from financing needs and lack of derivatives that Royal Gold enjoys. Royal Gold has a radically different business model than other gold companies and a comparison with the similar Franco Nevada (bought out by Newmont last year) casts Royal Gold`s valuation in a radically different light. Let`s do the math.
Franco Nevada`s:
1) Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was C$21.93 on February 18th 2002.
2) Number of shares outstanding was 158,661,470
3) Revenue last reported on Dec. 2001 was $40,200,000. Using the author`s valuation multiplied by the "Total Revenues Approach," Franco Nevada`s
4) value at takeover C$3,479,446,037.
5) This valuation was achieved with a gold price of $280.
6) Therefore, if we divide the revenue reported for FY 2001 of C$40,200,000 by the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7) Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001 revenues. The figure multiplied by cash flow was 73 times.
Now let us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold
(It is important to note that the price of gold is now $349):
1) Total revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2) According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares outstanding.
3) Therefore, US $13,000,000 multiplied by 86 divided by 18,550,614 will give us a calculation of Royal Gold`s value versus Franco Nevada at the time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4) US$13,000,000 annual revenues multiplied by 86 is US$1,066,000,000 total value on the Franco Nevada valuation.
5) US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the Ms. Brammer`s gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 86 times which was the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001.
With her method, Ms. Brammer came up with a value under US $10. Evaluating a radical business model can be hard. I suggest history-in the form of an actual buyout valuation for a similar company is the best guide.
Obviously, Ms. Brammer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. Since the main source for this article is an admitted short seller, did he cover yesterday?
Sincerely,
James E. Sinclair
CEO & Chairman, Tan Range Exploration (TNX on the TSE)
General Editorial
A MESSAGE TO THE GOLD COMMUNITY
If you agree with the contents of this Letter to the Editor at Barron`s Financial Weekly then I suggest you send, in your own words, an email to Barron`s requesting a review of the article that was written concerning Royal Gold.
Barron`s email address is: online.editors@barrons.com
Barron`s fax NUMBER IS: 1-800-975-8618
Letter to the Editor:
Dear Sir or Madam:
I am royally disappointed by Ms. Brammer`s article, "Royal Disappointment" for several reasons: Ms. Brammer`s source of information is an admitted short seller of Royal Gold; she makes no attempt to compare Royal Gold to the obvious comparable example, the royalty company, Franco Nevada; by the end of her method of valuation computation, no gold company has much market value; she values the company by taking 10 years revenues multiplied by one; she gives no upside growth in the 10-year period used for evaluation; and she gives no credit for the freedom from financing needs and lack of derivatives that Royal Gold enjoys. Royal Gold has a radically different business model than other gold companies and a comparison with the similar Franco Nevada (bought out by Newmont last year) casts Royal Gold`s valuation in a radically different light. Let`s do the math.
Franco Nevada`s:
1) Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was C$21.93 on February 18th 2002.
2) Number of shares outstanding was 158,661,470
3) Revenue last reported on Dec. 2001 was $40,200,000. Using the author`s valuation multiplied by the "Total Revenues Approach," Franco Nevada`s
4) value at takeover C$3,479,446,037.
5) This valuation was achieved with a gold price of $280.
6) Therefore, if we divide the revenue reported for FY 2001 of C$40,200,000 by the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7) Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001 revenues. The figure multiplied by cash flow was 73 times.
Now let us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold
(It is important to note that the price of gold is now $349):
1) Total revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2) According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares outstanding.
3) Therefore, US $13,000,000 multiplied by 86 divided by 18,550,614 will give us a calculation of Royal Gold`s value versus Franco Nevada at the time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4) US$13,000,000 annual revenues multiplied by 86 is US$1,066,000,000 total value on the Franco Nevada valuation.
5) US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the Ms. Brammer`s gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 86 times which was the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001.
With her method, Ms. Brammer came up with a value under US $10. Evaluating a radical business model can be hard. I suggest history-in the form of an actual buyout valuation for a similar company is the best guide.
Obviously, Ms. Brammer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has been the leader of the gold shares for a significant period of time. There is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. Since the main source for this article is an admitted short seller, did he cover yesterday?
Sincerely,
James E. Sinclair
CEO & Chairman, Tan Range Exploration (TNX on the TSE)
ROYAL GOLD INC Annual Ore Reserve Update Conference Call
Scheduled to start Fri, Mar 7, 2003, 12:00 pm Eastern
Scheduled to start Fri, Mar 7, 2003, 12:00 pm Eastern
THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH
Buffett intrigue: Is he buying gold?
Commentary: Bullion bugs seize on his stock-trash talk
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:11 PM ET March 4, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Just hours after Warren Buffett took his annual bash at stocks and derivatives, bullion investors Tuesday speculated the famed financier was buying gold.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid…
Buffett intrigue: Is he buying gold?
Commentary: Bullion bugs seize on his stock-trash talk
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:11 PM ET March 4, 2003
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Just hours after Warren Buffett took his annual bash at stocks and derivatives, bullion investors Tuesday speculated the famed financier was buying gold.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid…
Defending Royal Gold + Gold & More Trading Notes
By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box
http://news.goldseek.com/MarketWise/1046821543.php
By: Rick Ackerman, Market Wise Black Box
http://news.goldseek.com/MarketWise/1046821543.php
"Write to Barrons editor about article
online.editors@barrons.com
========================================
Here`s my letter to barrons:
Hello,
I read the recent article about Royal Gold in your publication.
Unfortunately, the article and especially the analysis is GARBAGE.
# Just because a stock rises, doesn`t make it over valued.
# the author excluded any analysis of similar companies...one that comes to mind is Franco-Nevada...just before Newmont merged with them. Royalty companies work differently compared to explorers/producers. Whty doesn`t the author try to compare apples and apples. Instead it is apples and rocks.
# the analysis used on RGLD is garbage. Companies get premiums for rapidly increasing profit potential. Evidently the author only believes internet stocks or tech stocks should get premiums for good profit results and high potential. Evidently Internet companies that have more debt than customers are more important than GOLD related companies that are DEBT free. According to the authors analysis if gold was to skyrocket to $1000 an ounce, RGLD would probably still be less than $7 bucks. That is utter nonsense...I am ashamed for yoru publication that you printed such foolishness.
The author is a MORON...the article was stupid.
Clearly it is the work of an idiot who knows nothing about valuation of any stock in any sector of any country."
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7079307&…
online.editors@barrons.com
========================================
Here`s my letter to barrons:
Hello,
I read the recent article about Royal Gold in your publication.
Unfortunately, the article and especially the analysis is GARBAGE.
# Just because a stock rises, doesn`t make it over valued.
# the author excluded any analysis of similar companies...one that comes to mind is Franco-Nevada...just before Newmont merged with them. Royalty companies work differently compared to explorers/producers. Whty doesn`t the author try to compare apples and apples. Instead it is apples and rocks.
# the analysis used on RGLD is garbage. Companies get premiums for rapidly increasing profit potential. Evidently the author only believes internet stocks or tech stocks should get premiums for good profit results and high potential. Evidently Internet companies that have more debt than customers are more important than GOLD related companies that are DEBT free. According to the authors analysis if gold was to skyrocket to $1000 an ounce, RGLD would probably still be less than $7 bucks. That is utter nonsense...I am ashamed for yoru publication that you printed such foolishness.
The author is a MORON...the article was stupid.
Clearly it is the work of an idiot who knows nothing about valuation of any stock in any sector of any country."
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7079307&…
Sinclair`s LETTER to BARRONS
VERBATIM from SINCLAIRS EMAIL
If you agree with the contents of this Letter to the Editor at Barron`s
Financial Weekly, then I suggest you send, in your own words, an email to
Barron`s requesting a review of the article that was written concerning
Royal Gold.
Barron`s email address is: online.editors@barrons.com
Barron`s fax NUMBER IS: 1-800-975-8618
Letter to the Editor:
Dear Sir or Madam:
I am royally disappointed by Ms. Brammer`s article, "Royal Disappointment"
for several reasons: Ms. Brammer`s source of information is an admitted
short seller of Royal Gold; she makes no attempt to compare Royal Gold to
the obvious comparable example, the royalty company, Franco Nevada; by the
end of her method of valuation computation, no gold company has much market
value; she values the company by taking 10 years revenues multiplied by
one; she gives no upside growth in the 10-year period used for evaluation;
and she gives no credit for the freedom from financing needs and lack of
derivatives that Royal Gold enjoys. Royal Gold has a radically different
business model than other gold companies and a comparison with the similar
Franco Nevada (bought out by Newmont last year) casts Royal Gold`s
valuation in a radically different light.
Let`s do the math.
Franco Nevada`s:
1) Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was C$21.93 on February 18th
2002.
2) Number of shares outstanding was 158,661,470
3) Revenue last reported on Dec. 2001 was $40,200,000. Using the author`s
valuation multiplied by the "Total Revenues Approach," Franco Nevada`s
4) value at takeover C$3,479,446,037.
5) This valuation was achieved with a gold price of $280.
6) Therefore, if we divide the revenue reported for FY 2001 of C$40,200,000
by the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7) Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001
revenues. The figure multiplied by cash flow was 73 times.
Now let us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold
(It is important to note that the price of gold is now $349):
1) Total revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2) According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares
outstanding.
3) Therefore, US $13,000,000 multiplied by 86 divided by 18,550,614 will
give us a calculation of Royal Gold`s value versus Franco Nevada at the
time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4) US$13,000,000 annual revenues multiplied by 86 is US$1,066,000,000 total
value on the Franco Nevada valuation.
5) US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per
share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the Ms. Brammer`s
gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 86 times which was
the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001.
With her method, Ms. Brammer came up with a value under US $10. Evaluating
a radical business model can be hard. I suggest history-in the form of an
actual buyout valuation for a similar company is the best guide.
Obviously, Ms. Brammer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has
been the leader of the gold shares for a significant period of time. There
is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. Since
the main source for this article is an admitted short seller, did he cover
yesterday?
Sincerely,
James E. Sinclair
CEO & Chairman, Tan Range Exploration (TNX on the TSE)
===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 JIM SINCLAIR`S MINESET () All rights reserved. For
more information visit our website at http://www.jsmin
VERBATIM from SINCLAIRS EMAIL
If you agree with the contents of this Letter to the Editor at Barron`s
Financial Weekly, then I suggest you send, in your own words, an email to
Barron`s requesting a review of the article that was written concerning
Royal Gold.
Barron`s email address is: online.editors@barrons.com
Barron`s fax NUMBER IS: 1-800-975-8618
Letter to the Editor:
Dear Sir or Madam:
I am royally disappointed by Ms. Brammer`s article, "Royal Disappointment"
for several reasons: Ms. Brammer`s source of information is an admitted
short seller of Royal Gold; she makes no attempt to compare Royal Gold to
the obvious comparable example, the royalty company, Franco Nevada; by the
end of her method of valuation computation, no gold company has much market
value; she values the company by taking 10 years revenues multiplied by
one; she gives no upside growth in the 10-year period used for evaluation;
and she gives no credit for the freedom from financing needs and lack of
derivatives that Royal Gold enjoys. Royal Gold has a radically different
business model than other gold companies and a comparison with the similar
Franco Nevada (bought out by Newmont last year) casts Royal Gold`s
valuation in a radically different light.
Let`s do the math.
Franco Nevada`s:
1) Last trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange was C$21.93 on February 18th
2002.
2) Number of shares outstanding was 158,661,470
3) Revenue last reported on Dec. 2001 was $40,200,000. Using the author`s
valuation multiplied by the "Total Revenues Approach," Franco Nevada`s
4) value at takeover C$3,479,446,037.
5) This valuation was achieved with a gold price of $280.
6) Therefore, if we divide the revenue reported for FY 2001 of C$40,200,000
by the value of the Franco Nevada at the last trade of C$21.93.
7) Therefore, C$3,479,446,037 divided by $40,200,000 equals 86 times 2001
revenues. The figure multiplied by cash flow was 73 times.
Now let us compare this to what would be a similar valuation of Royal Gold
(It is important to note that the price of gold is now $349):
1) Total revenues are estimate to be approximately $13,000,000 for 2003.
2) According to the Denver gold Group there are 18,550,614 shares
outstanding.
3) Therefore, US $13,000,000 multiplied by 86 divided by 18,550,614 will
give us a calculation of Royal Gold`s value versus Franco Nevada at the
time of the last sale of the only same similar for comparison`s sake.
4) US$13,000,000 annual revenues multiplied by 86 is US$1,066,000,000 total
value on the Franco Nevada valuation.
5) US$ 1,066,000,000 divided by 18,550,614 would be equal to US$ 57.46 per
share for Royal Gold on the Franco Nevada model using the Ms. Brammer`s
gross revenues but for one year and multiplied by the 86 times which was
the Franco Nevada number on February 18th 2001.
With her method, Ms. Brammer came up with a value under US $10. Evaluating
a radical business model can be hard. I suggest history-in the form of an
actual buyout valuation for a similar company is the best guide.
Obviously, Ms. Brammer does not favor gold or gold shares. Royal Gold has
been the leader of the gold shares for a significant period of time. There
is a strategy that says if you kill the leader then you win the war. Since
the main source for this article is an admitted short seller, did he cover
yesterday?
Sincerely,
James E. Sinclair
CEO & Chairman, Tan Range Exploration (TNX on the TSE)
===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 JIM SINCLAIR`S MINESET () All rights reserved. For
more information visit our website at http://www.jsmin
Q & A with Jim Sinclair
Mon Mar 3, 2003
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/QAndA.asp?ReportID=54470&_Title=B…
Mon Mar 3, 2003
BARRON`S VERSUS ROYAL GOLD
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/QAndA.asp?ReportID=54470&_Title=B…
SPECIAL EDITION
Five Smooth Stones
How to Fight the Gold Goliaths and Win
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Five Smooth Stones
How to Fight the Gold Goliaths and Win
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
"TECHNICAL REVIEW
Against all odds
Gold & Silver Break Up & Out of Power Down Trends
Anyone who does not believe that there is already a war on isn`t trading in gold & silver. The Bush Administration is, IMO, being driven in the Iraq situation by the "Sum of All Fears" (read "One Point Safe, a True Story"). In the same sense, the very large gold and gold share short position holders are unleashing all their fire power to cover their short position or ratio hedges before the Iraq and North Korean situations become "hot."
The attack by the media on Royal Gold, and the many articles about supposed over-valuation in the gold shares that have appeared in recent days, is not simply coincidence, IMO.
The media reacts positively to establishment types who are on the short side of gold, gold shares, and silver. When the hot tech stocks were running in 1995 to 2000, how many concentrated negative multi media articles did you see? None is the answer! They even used the NY Post over the weekend just in case the regular guys and gals had any investment in gold
Against this barrage of manufactured media negativity on individual issues and gold itself, gold has started its upward move. Silver, being less bothersome to the opposition, started up earlier. We are building for a move over $400 and even though that may sound a long way off, it is not.
Gold:
Having broken both the overhead Stop/Go Fibonacci Resistance Line and the Power Down Trend Line, it is the beginning of the next phase in gold and a challenge of the $400 level. Of course there will be a fight, but that fight will be won by gold because this is a long-term gold bull market. No manipulation in history has ever succeeded in breaking the intention of a fundamentally-based bull or bear trend once it has started. Delay a trend, yes, but stop it never.
Gold has support now at $350.50 and $348.50. Overhead resistance, which should give gold temporary trouble, is at $359- $361
US Dollar:
Now this is the Mother of all Bear Markets. I do not believe, even with success on the ground in Iraq, that a significant rally is possible. This is a target of the al Queda guerilla war economic strategy. This fact was revealed by the convicted murderer of Daniel Pearl of the Wall Street Journal during his trial in Pakistan. As usual, it was not carried in the Western Media.
Right now there are levels of support right under the market. They run from .95 to 98.60. All of them are going to be tested in the next few weeks. Expect short hot rally experiences thanks to the Exchange Stabilization Fund - but that is all.
Silver:
Silver is acting better than gold because it offends less and the short side is smaller and less powerful. Silver is getting ready to fight its way back to $4.98 - $5.12.
Right now silver has support at $4.65 and resistance at $4.73 followed by $4.82
On the Investors Business Daily "Price Momentum Line," you will see that the bull intention of gold and silver held intact and remains so."
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
Against all odds
Gold & Silver Break Up & Out of Power Down Trends
Anyone who does not believe that there is already a war on isn`t trading in gold & silver. The Bush Administration is, IMO, being driven in the Iraq situation by the "Sum of All Fears" (read "One Point Safe, a True Story"). In the same sense, the very large gold and gold share short position holders are unleashing all their fire power to cover their short position or ratio hedges before the Iraq and North Korean situations become "hot."
The attack by the media on Royal Gold, and the many articles about supposed over-valuation in the gold shares that have appeared in recent days, is not simply coincidence, IMO.
The media reacts positively to establishment types who are on the short side of gold, gold shares, and silver. When the hot tech stocks were running in 1995 to 2000, how many concentrated negative multi media articles did you see? None is the answer! They even used the NY Post over the weekend just in case the regular guys and gals had any investment in gold
Against this barrage of manufactured media negativity on individual issues and gold itself, gold has started its upward move. Silver, being less bothersome to the opposition, started up earlier. We are building for a move over $400 and even though that may sound a long way off, it is not.
Gold:
Having broken both the overhead Stop/Go Fibonacci Resistance Line and the Power Down Trend Line, it is the beginning of the next phase in gold and a challenge of the $400 level. Of course there will be a fight, but that fight will be won by gold because this is a long-term gold bull market. No manipulation in history has ever succeeded in breaking the intention of a fundamentally-based bull or bear trend once it has started. Delay a trend, yes, but stop it never.
Gold has support now at $350.50 and $348.50. Overhead resistance, which should give gold temporary trouble, is at $359- $361
US Dollar:
Now this is the Mother of all Bear Markets. I do not believe, even with success on the ground in Iraq, that a significant rally is possible. This is a target of the al Queda guerilla war economic strategy. This fact was revealed by the convicted murderer of Daniel Pearl of the Wall Street Journal during his trial in Pakistan. As usual, it was not carried in the Western Media.
Right now there are levels of support right under the market. They run from .95 to 98.60. All of them are going to be tested in the next few weeks. Expect short hot rally experiences thanks to the Exchange Stabilization Fund - but that is all.
Silver:
Silver is acting better than gold because it offends less and the short side is smaller and less powerful. Silver is getting ready to fight its way back to $4.98 - $5.12.
Right now silver has support at $4.65 and resistance at $4.73 followed by $4.82
On the Investors Business Daily "Price Momentum Line," you will see that the bull intention of gold and silver held intact and remains so."
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
Royal Gold Reports Reserve Additions at Royalty Properties Tuesday, March 4, 2003 01:38 PM ET Printer-friendly version * New Reserves Replace 83% of Pipeline Mining Complex 2002 Production;
Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty
Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/story/?story=NewsSto…
Mineralized Material up 52%
* Bald Mountain Reserves Increase 56%
* Martha Mine Boosted by 96% Reserve Increase
* Reserves for the SJ Claims and Leeville Project Added to Royalty
Portfolio
DENVER, March 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/story/?story=NewsSto…
"It would be a good idea for the gold community to bombard the SEC & NASD with emails and letters demanding that illegal short sellers are identified and charged as the criminals they are. It is not simply that they take advantage of a DTC electronic stock settlement system to sell short. The CRIME is they sell short without putting up any money and then violate the up-tick law to pummel the shares into the dust. In my opinion, that is exactly what happened to Royal Gold and Royal Gold does not have a clue it even happened."
"Royal Gold was the clear cut leader of all the gold shares for good reasons. However, I do not believe Royal Gold`s management even knows what happened to them. There are only nine employees in Royal Gold so clearly the gene pool can`t be broad. I do not hold much hope for them demanding an investigation unless their shareholders demand it for them. It was the gold community that stopped the hedgers from hedging. If you are concerned that this gang of thugs might rip off your stock, then write the SEC firmly demanding an investigation of the Royal Gold trading on the two Fridays prior to the Barron`s Monday article. If it was my decision to make, I would personally hunt down the people who ripped off more than $200,000,000 of my stockholder capitalization by tracing each and every transaction that took place to its source. The paper trail always leads to the perpetrator. All you have to do is follow the money trail and Voila, the criminal appears. Then I would get it back for the stockholders. I once spent $5,000,000 on a proxy contest with a public company based simply on principle with no economic reward. Something like this would be a DIVINE MISSION. However, I doubt the management of RGLD will do anything unless their stockholders and the gold community starts jumping up and down."
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
"Royal Gold was the clear cut leader of all the gold shares for good reasons. However, I do not believe Royal Gold`s management even knows what happened to them. There are only nine employees in Royal Gold so clearly the gene pool can`t be broad. I do not hold much hope for them demanding an investigation unless their shareholders demand it for them. It was the gold community that stopped the hedgers from hedging. If you are concerned that this gang of thugs might rip off your stock, then write the SEC firmly demanding an investigation of the Royal Gold trading on the two Fridays prior to the Barron`s Monday article. If it was my decision to make, I would personally hunt down the people who ripped off more than $200,000,000 of my stockholder capitalization by tracing each and every transaction that took place to its source. The paper trail always leads to the perpetrator. All you have to do is follow the money trail and Voila, the criminal appears. Then I would get it back for the stockholders. I once spent $5,000,000 on a proxy contest with a public company based simply on principle with no economic reward. Something like this would be a DIVINE MISSION. However, I doubt the management of RGLD will do anything unless their stockholders and the gold community starts jumping up and down."
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
RGLD (+3.35% bei $14.52) hat soeben die Führung vor SSRI (+3.10% bei $4.32) und KRY (+ 2.80% bei $1.10) übernommen.
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 4.55% bei $14.69) hat heute am Schluß doch noch die Nase vorne gehabt, beim Schlußspurt. Nachdem RANGY (+ 3.93% bei $9.52) vorher noch geführt hatte. Dann folgt SSRI mit
(+ 3.34% bei $4.33).
(+ 3.34% bei $4.33).
RGLD (+ 3.29% bei $15.80) führt zu Handelsbeginn heute im US-Handel vor RANGY (+ 2.27% bei $12.15) und SWC (+ 1.65% bei $2.47).
Go Gold und Palladium/Platinum Go!
RGLD (+ 3.40% bei $15.82) hat soeben die Führung im US-Handel wieder übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor KRY (+ 3.33% bei $0.930) und VGZ (+ 2.37% bei $3.46).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 3.01% bei $15.76) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von KRY (+ 2.22% bei $0.920) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor VGZ (+ 2.07% bei $3.45).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 2.88% bei $15.74) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung wieder übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor VGZ (+ 2.66% bei $3.47) und BVN (+ 2.32% bei $26.06).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 2.75% bei $15.72) hat soeben im US-Handel wieder die Führung übernommen und führt nun vor RIC (+ 2.14% bei $3.34) und BVN (+ 2.08% bei $26.00).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 2.59% bei $15.79) hat soeben im US-handel die Führung von SWC (+ 2.56% bei $2.40) und PDG (+ 1.98% bei $9.79) übernommen.
Go Gold, Palladium und Platin Go!
RGLD (+ 1.94% bei $15.69) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von VGZ (+ 1.79% bei $3.42) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor BGO (+ 1.79% bei $1.14).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 2.59% bei $15.79) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von PDG (+ 2.19% bei $9.81) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor NEM (+ 1.89% bei $26.42).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 3.63% bei $15.95) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von MDG (+ 3.13% bei $9.89) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor PDG (+ 2.81% bei $9.87).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 2.41% bei $16.59) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von MDG übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor SWC (+ 1.74% bei $2.34) und MDG (+ 1.71% bei $10.09).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 2.72% bei $16.64) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von SWC zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor KRY (+ 2.25% bei $0.910) und SWC (+ 1.74% bei $2.34).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 2.72% bei $16.64) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von KRY zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor MDG (+ 2.62% bei $10.18) und ASL (+ 1.16% bei $5.22).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 3.33% bei $16.74) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von MDG (+ 3.23% bei $10.24) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor HL (+ 2.91% bei $3.54).
Go Gold und Silber Go!
Go Gold und Silber Go!
RGLD (+ 3.70% bei $16.80) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von ASL (+ 3.29% bei $5.33) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor HL (+ 2.91% bei $3.54).
Go Gold und Silber Go!
Go Gold und Silber Go!
Go Gold Go !
RGLD (+ 3.73% bei $17.80) führt heute zu Handelsbeginn im US-Handel vor DROOY (+ 3.26% bei $2.85) und PAL (+ 3.04% bei $2.37).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 3.96% bei $17.84) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GLG (+ 3.94% bei $11.07) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor VGZ (+ 3.49% bei $3.56).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 3.50% bei $18.03) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GSS (+ 3.50% bei $2.07) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor PAL (+ 3.46% bei $2.39).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
Gap schließen und BREAKOUT!
RGLD ist bereit das Gap zu schließen zu $20`s von $18. Dieses höhere Hoch, Tag für Tag ist ein bullishes Zeichen! Dieses Ausbrechen über $18 ist wichtig; dieses war der Widerstand, der nicht verletzt wurde im Monat April bei verschiedenen Anläufen. Nach $18 gibt es dort bis $20 keinen Widerstand mehr!
RGLD ist bereit das Gap zu schließen zu $20`s von $18. Dieses höhere Hoch, Tag für Tag ist ein bullishes Zeichen! Dieses Ausbrechen über $18 ist wichtig; dieses war der Widerstand, der nicht verletzt wurde im Monat April bei verschiedenen Anläufen. Nach $18 gibt es dort bis $20 keinen Widerstand mehr!
RGLD (+ 4.87% bei $18.72) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von PAL übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor MDG (+ 4.75% bei $11.47) und PAL (+ 3.20% bei $2.90).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 5.21% bei $18.78) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von PAL (+ 4.98% bei $2.95) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor MDG (+ 4.75% bei $11.47).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 3.46% bei $18.83) führt heute zu Handelsbeginn im US-Handel vor GFI (+ 3.09% bei $11.69) und GSS (+ 3.05% bei $2.03).
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 8.53% bei $20.08) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von PAL übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor DROOY (+ 8.05% bei $2.82) und PAL (+ 8.00% bei $2.97).
Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 3.74% bei $20.79) hat soeben im US-handel die Führung von AEM (+ 3.03% bei $11.21) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor RANGY (+ 2.96% bei $14.26).
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 5.29% bei $21.10) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von AEM übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor RANGY (+ 4.40% bei $14.46) und AEM (+ 4.14% bei $11.33).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
RGLD (+ 5.34% bei $21.11) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von AEM (+ 4.50% bei $11.37) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor RANGY (+ 3.97% bei $14.40).
Go Gold Go!
Go Gold Go!
Short Squeeeeeeze
2:03PM Short-Squeeze Alert : While on the subject of heavily shorted stocks, the Gold & Silver Index (XAU +1.4%) has been on the mend of late, today breaking out to a 3-month high. With Index currently pushing out to best levels of the session, may begin to see some short-sellers move to cover positions in Royal Gold (RGLD 20.90 +0.86). Roughly 17% of co`s 15 mln share float has been sold short.
2:03PM Short-Squeeze Alert : While on the subject of heavily shorted stocks, the Gold & Silver Index (XAU +1.4%) has been on the mend of late, today breaking out to a 3-month high. With Index currently pushing out to best levels of the session, may begin to see some short-sellers move to cover positions in Royal Gold (RGLD 20.90 +0.86). Roughly 17% of co`s 15 mln share float has been sold short.
RGLD (+ 4.70% bei $19.14) führt im US-Handel vor DROOY
(+ 4.26% bei $2.45) und PAL (+ 4.01% bei $3.37).
Go Gold und Palladium Go!
(+ 4.26% bei $2.45) und PAL (+ 4.01% bei $3.37).
Go Gold und Palladium Go!
RGLD (+ 7.82% bei $19.71) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von DROOY (+ 6.38% bei $2.50) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor PAAS (+ 4.75% bei $6.83).
Go Gold und Silber Go!
Go Gold und Silber Go!
RGLD (+ 2.90% bei $20.55) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von CDE übernommen. RGLD führt nun vor SSRI (+ 1.59% bei $5.10) und BVN (+ 1.55% bei $31.48).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.10% bei $20.39) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von BVN zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor GSS (+ 2.04% bei $2.50) und BVN (+ 1.65% bei $31.51).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.65% bei $20.50) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GSS (+ 2.04% bei $2.50) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor BVN (+ 1.58% bei $31.49).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.20% bei $20.41) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GSS (+ 2.04% bei $2.50) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor BVN (+ 1.74% bei $31.54).
Go Gold go GATa go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATa go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.05% bei $20.38) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GSS zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor BVN (+ 1.61% bei $31.50) und HL (+ 1.24% bei $4.07).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.10% bei $20.39) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von CDE zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor GSS (+ 1.63% bei $2.49) und CDE (+ 1.53% bei $1.33).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 1.35% bei $20.24) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von CDE zurück erobert. RGLD führt nun vor NEM (+ 1.11% bei $32.65).
Go Gold go RGLD!
Go Gold go RGLD!
RGLD (+ 2.84% bei $22.06) fhrt zur Handelseröffnung im US-Handel vor KRY (+ 1.67% bei $1.83).
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Go Gold go GATA go RGLD!
Excellent RGLD analysis by Jim Sinclair
*ttp://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
When site opens up, scroll down until RGLD you get to RGLD commentary. Very compelling read. Sinclair sees RGLD in tripple digits and gives supportive data.
Jim Sinclair predicts triple digits for RGLD
check out his website.
feels RGLD will be the front runner and has already started the up trend.
*ttp://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
When site opens up, scroll down until RGLD you get to RGLD commentary. Very compelling read. Sinclair sees RGLD in tripple digits and gives supportive data.
Jim Sinclair predicts triple digits for RGLD
check out his website.
feels RGLD will be the front runner and has already started the up trend.
!
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