Gold Fields Ltd. Sp Adr (GFI) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[peter.wedemeier1]

Auf Gold setzen. Rallye seitdem ich beobachtete das GFI über $10 ging. Ich hoffe dieses Mal ein Stück zu bekommen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Jay Taylor Recommends the Following Stock: GFI
Updated: Wednesday, June 19, 2002 06:01 AM ET

CHICAGO, June 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The gold rally continues to move higher and Jay Taylor`s Gold and Technology stock model portfolio is up +56.9% YTD while the S&P 500 continues to fall. Read an excerpt from Jay`s article regarding the Fed`s monetary policy and which stock he is currently recommending. http://www.featuredexpert2.zacks.com .

Here are the highlights from the Featured Expert column:

GOLD FIELDS LIMITED (NYSE: GFI, news, msgs) produced 3.66 million ounces during its fiscal year during fiscal 6/30/01. With a cash cost of US$195 per ounce, GFI was able to generate an operating profit of US$103 million for the year. However, after writing off $233 million related mostly to a reduction in the carrying value a former property, the company reported a net loss of $208 million.

Based on a $270 gold price, the company`s reserves at its last fiscal yearend were 144 million ounces of which 37 million ounces were below existing mine workings leaving the company with a total of 104 million ounces located above existing infrastructure. With the exception of 6.8 million ounces on the company`s Tarkwa project in Ghana, most all gold reserves are in South Africa, which does quite frankly concern us. Given political uprising in surrounding countries as well as unreported anarchy in South Africa itself, I am very concerned about the longer-term prospects for Goldfields. No doubt the company`s board of directors shares that concern so that the mandate given to CEO Chris Thompson has been to internationalize the company.

Toward that end, management announced on September 21st that it had successfully bid for the St. Ives and Agnew gold operations in Western Australia for $180 million in cash plus new Gold Fields shares valued at US$52 million. Together the operations will add about 600,000 ounces of gold to the company annual production and about 4 million ounces of reserves. Assuming we are right in our assumption that we are in the early stages of a gold bull market, I would not be surprised to see Goldfields begin to become active outside of South African, including North America in more acquisitions in the future. That should mean some very exciting and profitable times our "B", "C" and "D" quality stocks that are listed on the back page of our monthly newsletter.

Improving Profitability


With the price of gold on the rise and with the company cutting cash costs to $160 per ounce, GFI boosted profits during the quarter ending 3/31/02 to US$67 million. Operating profits rose to US$149 million. The company produced 1,081,000 ounces of gold during the quarter.

Anyway you cut it, GFI is a premier gold producer that is worthy of inclusion as an "A" quality gold stock included in our Model Portfolio.

To find out more about Taylor`s portfolio and his "on fire" gold shares, click: http://www.featuredexpert3.zacks.com .




Visit: www.Zacks.com

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die Marktrallye (GFI) am Freitag zum Handelsende und die Fortsetzung am Montag.
Nun kommen die Gewinnwarnungen wieder: ADM/AAPL etc... viele der 30 DOW Werte sind in charttechnisch ernsten Formationen. Die Nasdaq ist in wirklichen Schwierigkeiten.
Ich denke wie sehen bei GFI noch dieses Jahr die $15,-.
GFI sagt, sie wollen 300 Tonnen mehr Gold produzieren in jedem der kommenden Jahre. Ich schätze die Lieferungen und der Bedarf werden bald nach oben zeigen. Dazu kommt, das Gold unten ist.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Der Platz wo man sein sollte. (Precious Metals).
Eine von vielen in der Minenindustrie (Gold/Silber) die einen positiven Chart haben. Gute Minen, gute Assets und ein gutes Management. $16-17 sollten kurzfristig drin sein. Die $20 Range sollte auch ohne Schwierigkeiten kommen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Seit 1929 gibt es mehr Jahre indem der Goldpreis relativ zu dem DOW JOnes gefallen ist. In anderen Worten, Aktien waren im generellen seit 1929 ein besseres Investment als Gold. Aber wenn man Geschichte studiert hat, dann weiß man, das nichts für ewig ist und das der Grund des Wechsels im Anlegerverhalten gegeben oder eine Konstante ist.
Sicher, wenn man in Gold investiert hat man nicht mehr Sicherheit als jedermann sonst, aber man kann ein Paar von schnellen Punkten machen.
Es ist klar, das Aktien historisch noch sehr überbewertet sind. Nehmen z.B. einen Blick auf den Chart von dem Kurs des DOW JONES gegenüber dem Goldkurs, typischerweise DOW/GOLD Ratio genannt. So einen Chart kannst du auf folgender Homepage sehen:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/june192000.html .
Wer weiß es sicher? Nicht ich, das ist sicher.
Aber in der Betrachtung der aktuellen Weltlage, welche für mich erscheint zum Vorteil von Gold, ich meine das man in der kurzen bis mittleren Frist beim Investieren in Gold mehr Geld machen kann, als die Bullen vom Aktienmarkt.
Dieser Kommentar ist nicht weiter als meine einfache, unprofessionelle Meinung.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/june192002.html
Dieses ist die korrekte Adresse!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ich glaube dort gibt es mehr hinzuzufügen zu der kürzlichen Stärke von Gold gegenüber der Schwäche im Aktienmarkt.
Nasdaq Composite in totalen Schwierigkeiten Ziel: 800 Punkte,
S&P 500 Ziel: 500 Punkte, DOW Jones Ziel: <8000 Punkte.
Das ganze Aktiensystem ist kaputt! Der Dollar ist ein System zu 100% geregelt. Der Greenback steht unter dem vollen Glauben und Kredit der FED. Ich sehe die Parität zu dem Euro ziemlich bald. Es existieren in den USA!!! mittlerweile Kursziele von 1,15 gegenüber dem Greenback. Dieses alles wird das Gold beflügeln! Die US Regierung setzt mit Ihrem eigenen Sozialsystem und Ihrer Politik (seit dem Anfang der Bush Regierung)Ihre eigenen Bürger zur Disposition (Sozialsystem)!
Wie sollen sich dabei die Ausländer der USA fühlen? die Hunderte von Millionen investieren wollen? Wir können dieses ja täglich sehen indem der Goldpreis und Silberpreis steigt sowie der Euro! Es ist offensichtlich warum dort ein schlechter Rausch raus dem Dollarraum existiert. Und wie wird immer gesagt, wenn die USA am Aktienmarkt wackelt, dann haben wir eine Grippe. Fazit: Raus aus dem gesamten Aktienmarkt und ein in Gold und Silberwerte!

peter.wedemeier1

[ChartJunkie]

Ich fasse es nicht.

Peterle, der Monsterbär!

Eigentlich ein untrügliches Anzeichen, dass eine kleine Rallye nicht mehr weit sein kann.

Und jetzt die Quizfrage: Wer wird am Ende dieser Rallye wieder bullish sein?

Erster Preis für alle richtigen Antworten: Geld, soviel man will.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold kaufen und halten kann ein begründbares Investment in Zeiten von ökonomisch und politisch gestörten Konditionen sein. Solche Zeiten werden oft angezeigt von Extremen in paper financial asset (z.B. Aktienmarktblasen) und werden angezeigt von negativen realen Zinsen. Ich glaube wir sind ein einem solchen Zeitrahmen.
Wie auch immer, mit dem Bruch des Dollars durch seinen key support bei 108 (Dollar Index) gibt es dort ein Problem für den Aktienmarkt (weltweit) und den Dollar. Ich bin mit Goldaktien long und bleibe es auch.

peter.wedemeier1

[Guru-Schreck]

@Peter

Vor nicht allzulanger Zeit hast du einen Bullenmarkt vorhergesagt.
Jetzt auf einmal schreibts du etwas völlig Gegensätzliches.
Das du long bleibst hast du auch bei ORCL, CHKP, ... geschrieben.
Deine jetzigen Aussagen machen dich total unglaubwürdig, denn weder
hat sich etwas am politischen Umfeld, noch an den Unternehmensergebnissen
verändert.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ich habe schon lange den Absprung von dieser Tech Scheiße gefunden. Der breite Gesamtmarkt (DOW und Nasdaq) geht gerade die Toilette hinunter (die großen Pistolen machen gerade Multi-Jahrestiefs)während der Gold und Silbermarkt in den frühen Stufen eines neuen bull market sich befindet. Also habe ich nur noch Gold- und Silberwerte in meinem Depot neben ein paar aussichtsreichen Turnaround Spekulationen (EKC, OWC, ACK, CIB, SYX, GRA).

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ich denke Gold hat eine Menge mehr zu rennen langfristig. Siehe Puplava, zum Beispiel, für Gründe:
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Wow, Geld verläßt Gold schnell heute um anderen Interessen nachzujagen. Habe dieses nicht so schnell erwartet. Irgendwelche Kommentare von irgendjemand?
Ich glaube dort gibt es starke fundamentale Gründe für die Bewegung beim Gold.
Der heutige Exodus wenn der Markt ein bißchen dreht überrascht. Etwas Exodus natürlich, aber soviel, ich weiß nicht warum. Scheint das Gold gerade am Rennen ist aufgrund der Angst vor Aktienbewertungen, Bilanzfälschungen, Handelsbilanzdefizit, Enron etc. Ich habe geglaubt es ist viel tiefer als das. Der Markt hat eine Tendenz zu Fehlsignalen wie die Jungs versuchen die Leute mit einem fake aus Gold rauszujagen. Nur ich lasse mich aber nicht faken!

peter.wedemeier1

[Dottore Lupo]

Haste wohl bei Thai-Ginseng und Edelstahl -$ einige Inspirationen im Goldboard geholt.

Mann oh mann,....Gf gabs bei unter 5T€uretten lange Zeit und man konnte sie bei Stücker 13 locker vertickern.

cu DL...der Goldbug

[newhenry]

@Peter,

Du bist nicht zufällig hauptberuflich Dolmetscher???

NH

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold bei $400 steht nicht außer Frage.
Sehe für einen Pullback hier bei Gold mit einer potenziellen Sommer Rallye. Aber $400 könnten passieren bis Ende 2003. Inflation, mehr Terroristenaktivitäten, Markt Crash könnten leicht pushen das Gold nach oben und vorbei an der $400er Marke.

peter.wedemeier1

[Guru-Schreck]

@Peter

Echt Käse was du da schreibst.(#11)
Wochenlang hast du die Technolgieaktien in den Himmer gelobt,
obwohl ein Abwärtstrend nicht zu übersehen war. Trotz Warnungen
bist du weiterhin ORCL, GNSS, ... treu geblieben, hast von long
geredet, sogar von nachkaufen, trotzdem alles dagegensprach.
Jetzt schreibts du, du hast den Absprung schon lange von der
"Tech-Sch..." gefunden. Das kann ja wohl so nicht stimmen, wenn man
sich deine Postings anschaut.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Key Resistance Niveau von $10,01 bis 12,375.
Retest von $15-17,15 -> Retest vom Tief -> Retest vom breakout Punkt bei $19,-.
Langfristiges Kursziel = $20,63 - 22,30, nach dem Rausnehmen auf Volumen von $17,15.

peter.wedemeier1

[huetchenspieler]

peter.wede ist nun mal wirklich
einer der dümmsten bezahlten
pusher/basher im board !

aber daher HERVORRAGENDER !!!
kontraindikator

danke peter

[peter.wedemeier1]

Der US-Chart zeigt mir einen Inverted Hammer, dieses ist eine bullishe Kerze.
GFI wird bald ausbrechen und weiter nach oben steigen. Im Moment wird versucht die schwachen Hände abzuschütteln. Gold ist nur Leute mit der Stärke, es auch zu händeln.
Mit dem USD Index schnell fallend und den Unternehmensskandalen, den Weltereignissen muß der Goldpreis nach oben steigen. Die ökonomischen Daten und Gewinne/Dollar-Kollaps sagen mir, das die Rezession wieder kommt und das wir auf den Weg zu inflationären Zeiten sind. Die US-Wirtschaft befindet sich in massiven Schwierigkeiten.
Der kurzfristige Widerstand bei dieser Aktie ist $16,- mit dem Kursziel bei $30,-. Für das Gold haben wir die meist positiven Fundamentals seit 10 Jahren.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

GOLD FIELDS >Best gold & silver stocks for the half-year bei den gewichteten Gewinnen durch Aktienkurs und Marktkapitalisierung die Nr. 1 http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

[atalaia]

@Hütchenspieler

"peter.wedemeier" ist in der Tat ein guter Kontra-Indikator.

Aber er ist bestimmt keine wirkliche Person.

Es handelt sich offenbar um systematische postings aus den USA.

Wenn man sich die threads genau durchliest, merkt man, dass vieles durch Übersetzungsprogramme generiert wurde (vielleicht murkst machmal auch ein nicht besonders sprachgewandter Deutsch-Amerikaner daran herum).

Man merkt an den Kampagnen jedenfalls genau, welchen Müll die Mafia gerade loswerden will.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Mutual Funds
This bear is betting on Nasdaq 500
The Prudent Bear Fund is up a whopping 109% in the last 27 months. Its manager, David Tice, thinks he has plenty of room to run yet and sees the Nasdaq falling deeper into the hole.
By Timothy Middleton
Timothy Middleton
Is going from 5,000 to 500 on the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) imaginable?

It sure is to some people. The benchmark tumbled 71% from its peak in March of 2000 to the end of June, hitting a five-year low. The distance to 500 from here would be less, just another 63%.

Bears have made a killing on the move so far, and David Tice predicts there are more fortunes to be made by selling the country short. Selling short is highly unpopular -- and, since Sept. 11, something a lot of people see as vaguely unpatriotic, as well -- but his Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) is up 109% in the last 27 months.

“Unfortunately, markets overshoot their fair value,” says Tice, whose Dallas-based fund is approaching a five-year high. “We will correct excesses and imbalances, and we have an imbalance -- a maladjusted U.S. economy where there’s too much debt in the system.” He thinks the Nasdaq “could easily fall to 500,” as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) tumbles another 67% to below 3,000.

Investors who cling to their stocks, which is most of us, are confident Tice is wrong. “I think it’s too late” to make money by betting on a steep further decline, says Sheldon Jacobs, editor of the No-Load Fund Investor newsletter. He notes some gold funds, the only sector in which Tice is long, tumbled 20% last month.

“I think we’re going to have a real slow summer,” Jacobs says, “but I remain -- for not a lot of reasons -- hopeful that we’ll get a bull market in either the fourth quarter or the first quarter.”

Tice is betting the carnage will continue. The 18-year bull market that ended in 2000 was preceded by 17 years of bear market. “We have gone from record low participation by individual investors to a record high, and what happens in secular bear markets is you wash all of that out,” he says. The process has, he thinks, about 15 years to go.

A bear sharpens his teeth
For 14 years, Tice has published research for institutional investors in a report called "Behind the Numbers". He launched his mutual fund at the end of 1995, which he admits was four years too early, as it lost money in each of them. “Remember, 1996 was the year that Greenspan called what was going on `irrational exuberance,`” he says. “Our mistake was that we didn’t think policy makers would let the bubble get so far out of control.”

What the Fed missed, Tice thinks, is that massive inflation was occurring in the late 1990s, which would have called for much tighter monetary policy, except that it wasn’t happening in goods and services, which is where everyone looks, but in assets such as stocks and real estate.

Even today, after a huge fall, the price-to-earnings ratio of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index ($INX) is 30. When the last bear market ended, in 1982, it was 7.

Tice sponsored a symposium in the fall of 1999, predicting a massive crash. At the same time, he demonstrated the depth of his research by predicting a tumble in shares of Tyco International (TYC, news, msgs), criticizing the conglomerate’s accounting.

The shares were trading north of $50 when he published that opinion, and they fell to less than $40 within three months. Subsequently they surged to more than $60, however, and Tyco became a darling of growth investors as it resisted the bear market in 2000 and 2001.

Now those accounting methods have become controversial again, and the stock is down to less than $13.

Profiting from tech`s collapse
Tice`s investors have benefited the most, however, from the collapse of the technology sector. One of his most spectacular shorts was Juniper Networks (JNPR, news, msgs), which went from a high of nearly $220 in the fall of 2000 to its current price below $7.

“It was obvious the entire telecommunications market was in disarray,” he says. Juniper had been gaining market share on Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs), but remained a niche player highly vulnerable to cutbacks in capital spending. That’s what happened.

He still thinks technology is too richly priced, and is currently shorting IBM (IBM, news, msgs). “IBM has, we think, taken quite a bit of latitude in its accounting,” Tice says. Much of the company’s revenues derive from services, rather than goods, and he says that opens the door to slippery numbers.

Also, the high-tech company’s share price hasn’t fallen nearly as sharply as that of other many tech companies. It trades around $70. The high was around $130 in the summer of 2000.

Shorts account for roughly 80% of Tice’s $330 million of assets, with the balance evenly divided between long positions in gold stocks and a few special situations. He trimmed the gold position in the spring, as the group surged, but retained Goldcorp (GG, news, msgs). The Canadian mining company produces gold for about $70 an ounce and is selling it currently for more than $300.

When the bear gets bitten
Investing with the bears is, however, fraught with its own problems. The upside on a short position is the difference between its current price and zero; in other words, it’s limited. There is no limit on the downside.

Short squeezes, or organized efforts to ratchet up a share’s price in order to bankrupt shorts, are often successful. Tice acknowledges this and uses put options and other derivatives to lessen his exposure to short squeezes. Still, the risk can’t be eliminated.

Also, there are many profitable alternatives to big-cap U.S. stocks. Value and small-company investors have largely sidestepped the bear. So have investors in basic industries like manufacturing. Bond investors have also done well.

Overseas, moreover, Japan has staged a serious rally -- the Nikkei 225 index ($NI225) is up 14.3% since early February. And emerging markets have been rallying as well. Investing in these markets carries its own share of risks, but they are easier for most investors to understand than the risk in short-selling.

Finally, there is serious timing risk in bear-market investing, because buried within a secular bear market will be some cyclical bulls, each one capable of squeezing shorts mercilessly.

For example, a secular bear market began in 1965, but that downward slide was reversed in 1970, when the Nifty Fifty rally took the S&P 500 up nearly 30%. The index was crushed again in 1973.

So a prudent investor has to make two decisions before approaching the Prudent Bear Fund. He first has to accept the argument that major indices will continue sliding nearly as much as they already have, only excruciatingly slowly. He then has to believe no cyclical rally will spring up anytime soon to savage him as much as the bear market already has.

I’m with Jacobs. Whatever you call what lies ahead -- secular or cyclical (bicyclical?) -- I think the easy money has been made on the bear side. The risk of some sustained good news is just too great.

Dow Jones geht unter 7.000 (vielleicht unter 6.000) der Nasdaq Composite wird unter 1.000 gehen.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Sehr ungewöhnliche, nachbörsliche Aktion beim Gold.
Plötzlich und exakt um 17.38 kamen folgende Hauptblöcke (Transaktionen) herein bei allen Haupt Goldminenaktien. Ich nehme mal an, das dieses Fondskäufe waren:
NEM: 185200 shares @ 17:38
GFI: 222000 shares @ 17:38
HGMCY: 75500 shares @ 17:38
AU: 105000 shares @ 17:38
AEM: 321000 shares @ 17:38
ABX: 255800 shares @ 17:38
GG: 85900 shares @ 17:38
MDG: 35800 shares @ 17:38
PDG: 155900 shares @ 17:38

[peter.wedemeier1]

Der XAU hat nach oben gedreht und GFI ist über 20% gestiegen von seinen Tiefs. Wir werden bei dem XAU am nächsten freitag die 80 brechen.
Diese großen Transaktionen nachbörslich kommt von Mutual Fonds, die das "normale" Trading während des Tages nicht unterbrechen wollen. Wie auch immer, im letzten Monat konnte man herausfinden, das meistens am tag die Goldminenaktien verprügelt wurden und das Level II herausfand, das dieses vor allem von Goldman Sachs gehandhabt worden ist. Dieses führt mich zur folgenden Spekulation: das an den Tagen, an denen das PPT verkauft GFI, HGMCY, ABX, AU und GFI short, sie Ihre Short Verkäufe durch GS nachbörslich wieder eindecken und einen Gewinn generieren für die nächste Intervention. Gerade wie das ACCESS System nach COMEX Schluß um den Goldpreis nach unten zu treiben, es scheint das PPT zu arbeiten wie der nachbörsliche Handel.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI wird bald auf neue Höhen steigen. Seine Profitabilität und der Goldpreis, Dollar und die Aktien vom Dow Jones und der Nasdaq werden die Gründe dafür sein. GFI sollte auf $17+ stehen.
- Sie haben einen der besten Minen Engineers der Welt, Ian Cockerill.
-150 Millionen Unzen an Reserven in Südafrika, Ghana und Australien. Davon sind 1/3 bis 1/2 leicht erreichbar. 50 - 75 Millionen zu den schon erklärten Unzen werden hinzugefügt, so das man auf eine Gesamtsumme von 135 - 160 Millionen Unzen kommt. Die 50 - 75 Millionen Unzen sind durchschnittliches Gold von 7,0 gm/to. vs. 6,4 gm/to für die aktuellen 85 Millionen Unzen.

- Mit dem steigenden Goldpreis und fallender Weltproduktion (2-4%/Jahr), die Planungen von GFI Thomson/Cockerill sind auf dem Weg die Lieferungen zu steigern auf 5 - 6 Millionen Unzen/Jahr. Die 85 Millionen Unzen repräsentieren 17 Jahre, die 135 Millionen Unzen repräsentieren 27 Jahre und die 160 Millionen Unzen repräsentieren 32 Jahre. Ein wirklich langes und profitables Leben. Im Gegensatz zu anderen Minen, die gewöhnlich ein 4 - 5 Jahres Leben haben.

- Das Finnland GFI Projekt; Oktokumpu hat wirklich ein Super $$$ Wert. Es wird gezeigt in jeder GFI Präsentation und wird erwähnt in jedem GFI Management Interview. GFI hat einen Anteil von 51%. Die 11 - 12 Millionen Unzen die öffentlich im Februar 2002 berichtet wurden, haben sich seitdem verdoppelt auf 22 - 24 Millionen Unzen. Annähernd 6 Millionen Unzen Pd und 8 Millionen Unzen Pt bei der letzten Zählung und die Exploration setzt sich fort in dem Reef Gebiet.
Engineering Produktionspläne für neue Objekte sind gesteigert worden. Neue geplante Objekte sind 500.000 Unzen am Anfang nun auf 1 Million bis 2 Millionen Unzen pro Jahr kurz danach. Ein direkter Käufer wird eher antizipiert. Der gesamte Weltverbrauch von Pd und Pt beträgt 6 - 7 Millionen Unzen pro Jahr.

- Der Guatemala CA Gold Besitz, in Partnerschaft mit Radius Exploration ist ein sehr vielversprechendes ProjektGFI Geologen zeigen sich überrascht von den ersten Ergebnissen von den Tambor, Bella Vista und Tierra Blanca Gebieten. Multi-Unzen Werte sind gefunden worden in den Felsen und Strömen von den vielen Goldzonen, die lokalisiert sind und Bohrprogramme befinden sich auf dem Weg seit dem 2. Quartal 2002.

- Der aktuelle Netto-Wert bei den herstellenden Facilities in ZA, Ghana & Australien beträgt mehrere Hunderte von Mils und mehr sind geplant wie GFI bewegt sich von 4,5 mils Unzen/Jahr auf 5 mils Unzen/Jahr.

- Der Netto-Wert von GFI BIOX bio-oxidation lizensierte Technologie ist berücksichtigt in der US $ mils und wird höher um so höher der Goldpreis steigt. Dieses macht die verbleibende Recovery ökonomischer.
Um Gold von Sulfide Mineralien zu befreien werden thiobacillius bacteria Reaktoren eingesetzt. Andererseits würden mehrere Refraktionelle Operationen aufeinanderfolgend in einem nitric acid Bad benötigt. Typische Gold Recoverys von mehr als 90% gebrauchen GFI`s BIOX Technologie. Dort gibt es mehrere existierende kommerzielle BIOX Facilities in Südafrika, Brasilien, Australien (2), Ghana und Peru. Neue Facilitäten sind geplant und Technologie Lizensen sind unterschrieben für Projekte in Uzbekistan (2), Griechenland und Australien.
Für weitergehende Informationen besuchen Sie bitte die Webseite:

http://www.goldfiels.co.za

Bei allen diesen guten Nachrichten sollte GFI bei $17+ stehen.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields und Newmont Mining sind Top Werte in dem Goldsektor! Auch Meridian Gold ist ein Topwert in diesem Sektor! Und für ein Silberspiel Pan American Silver, der Topwert in dem Silbersektor! Investments bei den oben genannten Werten bringen dir mehr Return zurück, als ein Investment in einen 1000 g Barren, wegen:
- der Dividende, die dir bezahlt wird,
- den Splits, die durchgeführt werden,
und dem Merger Potenzial bei den Werten.
Weitere Faktoren:
- Starte jetzt mit deinem Investment nach dem Pullback,
- füge zu deinen Holdings bei Pullbacks hinzu,
- bleibe investiert, wissend was du besitzt,
- sei dir aufgrund deiner Angst nicht dein schlimmster Feind,
- der Goldmarkt wird dich niemals mehr verletzen können als du dir selbst verletzen kannst.
Gold befindet sich am Anfang von einem sehr langen (Jahre, Jahrzehnte) bull market. Also viel Glück bei deinen Investments in diesem Sektor. Vergiß die Dow Jones-, DAX-, Nasdaq- und Nemax-Werte!

peter.wedemeier1

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Der Kurs von GFI liegt jetzt seit ungefähr einer Woche etwas zurück. Wenn die Minen sich mehr erholen sollten, dann wird GFI diese anführen. Und Montag wird ein positver Tag werden.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Wenn wir die kleine Hürde bei $330,- bald nehmen, die nur im Wege ist bei der schnellen Bewegung über $500-600, dann wird GFI bei $40+++ gehandelt werden.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Go for the gold!
Source: African Business
Publication date: 2002-07-01
Arrival time: 2002-08-03

MINING NOTEBOOK
In these unsure times, everybody wants a bit of certainty - and that means good, old fashioned gold. But for how long will the high prices hold? Is it time to invest in the yellow metal or pull out?

Rafiq Ahmed has the answers.

In times of international uncertainties, investors turn to more tangible assets, such as real estate and precious metals. Gold possesses the distinctive characteristics of money: it serves as a medium of exchange, a store of wealth (long-- term savings) and a unit of value. Besides gold holdings, investors are lately showing preference for gold bars, gold coins, paper (metal certificates) and specialist funds (which invest exclusively in gold mining company shares), monitored by the FTSE Gold Mines Index.

This index, which tracks gold equity markets in the Americas, Africa and Australasia, boasts market capitalisation of $50.63bn and has generated a 62% return in the year to June 2002. The gold price surged through the key resistance level of $320 a troy ounce (oz) in late May and touched $330/oz in Hong Kong in June before slipping back because of light profit-taking by investment funds.

There have been seven short-lived rallies since February 1996 when gold hit $420oz. However, most analysts believe the market`s upside potentials now have solid fundamentals. Kelvin Williams, marketing director of AngloGold, the world`s largest gold producer, said: "Unlike other price rallies in recent years, where the gold price has tended to rise on the back of a single issue or incident, the current price improvement has been built on a number of favourable circumstances for gold."

The positive factors underpinning gold`s new-found lustre among institutional and private investors are:

*A marked turnaround in investor sentiment largely because of geopolitical tensions, which if sustained over the coming months, can prove crucial in reviving the industry`s fortunes. Chris Thompson, chief executive of Gold Fields, remarked: "People are feeling far less secure than previously. Gold has always been the investment that people reach for when they feel uncomfortable."

*The substantial reductions in producer-- hedging, i.e. forward- selling on the gold derivative markets. This indicates limited downside risk for gold prices. Lately, there has been a marked change in producers` hedging strategies. Jonathan Best, AngloGold`s financial director explained: "We`ve continued to manage our hedge book aggressively and we are taking out the weaker positions in the hedge book right now so that going forward, we don`t have a long period when we will be receiving lower prices or incurring an opportunity loss." AngloGold has cut its hedging positions by about 105.74t during the past six months.

Heavy hedge-book loses?

According to Gold Fields` findings, hedge-book financial losses to producers could be heavy over the next few years if prices surge to between $330/oz and $345/oz. Macquarie Bank (Australia) estimates that total hedge-book of gold miners world-wide may drop by 400t in 2002.

Therefore, the supply of bullion in the markets will become tighter because of declining producer-hedging and robust investment demand should buoy the price of gold.

*Global mine production is expected to decline this year or next thanks to greater consolidation and rationalisation within the industry during the past two years.

*The gold rally was also helped by the US dollar`s weakness against a number of other major currencies. A softer greenback versus the euro and the yen, in fact, reduces gold prices in many other currencies, thereby making the precious metal more attractive to buyers in Asia-Pacific and Europe. The greenback and gold have a counter-cyclical relationship. If the dollar surges, bullion prices fall and vice versa.

*Lower US money market rates are discouraging speculative short- selling of gold by international hedge funds. In times of rising US interest rates, it`s profitable for hedge funds to borrow gold from the bullion banks, sell it and place the money in high-yielding cash- deposits and major OECD-country Treasury securities.

*The lacklustre performances of stock markets in America and Western Europe have also had an impact on the price of gold. This in turn, reflects doubts about the health of global economic recovery and hence revival in corporate earnings. During the past year, gold investments have outperformed bonds and equities. The World Gold Council writes: "People buy gold when there is a stock market crash or things are unstable because gold tends to hold its value. Cash is eroded by inflation, but gold bullion tends to rise in value. It is usually seen as a hedge against inflation."

Controlled bullion sales

The September 1999 Washington Accord commits 20 of the world`s leading central banks and international financial institutions (the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF together control 85% of the globe`s bullion reserves), to hold gold as a reserve asset and to limit gold sales to 4001 per annum until September 2004.

The signatories have also agreed not to increase their gold- leasing programmes and expand the use of gold futures and options during this period. The central banks are complying with the accord, thus eliminating the market`s fear of an uncontrolled heavy official selling. Gold-producing countries in Africa and South America would of course welcome an extension of the Central Banks` Gold Agreement after 2004.

Central banks world-wide hold more than 33,000t as part of their foreign currency reserves, equivalent to 13 years of current mine production. The five-main official holders of gold reserves are the US Federal Reserves Board (8,148t); Germany`s Bundesbank (3,4560; Banque de France (3,025t); Banca d`Italia (2,45 10 and the Swiss National Bank (2,151t).

Supply-deficit

The demand for gold has continued to surpass the supply of newly- mined gold for many years. According to the latest report, "Gold Survey 2002," compiled by Londonbased Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), world-wide mine production in 2001 totalled 2,604t, against aggregate gold usages in jewellery, fabricated products and investments of 3,483t. The jewellery sector accounts for 75% - 80% of gold offtake, especially in Asia and the Middle East.

Despite sustained falls in gold output, South Africa still remains the world`s largest producer (394t) last year. GFMS report shows that 80% of SA production comes from mines owned by AngloGold, Gold Fields and Harmony. Other major producers are America, Australia, Indonesia - which owns the world`s biggest gold-mine, Grasberg (which produced 108t) - China, Russia and Canada.

Last year`s average spot price was $271/oz while total production costs averaged $228/oz. Future trends

Some prime investment banks like UBS Warburg, Deutsche Bank, HSBC and Barclays Capital are anticipating gold to average above $300/oz this year and between $320/oz-$340/oz in 2003. GFMS provides more cautious forecasts of between $285/oz and $315/oz over the next year. The yellow metal`s 10-year moving average is $331 /oz.

But stronger prices of $350/oz-$380/oz, though unlikely in the near-term, would trigger profit-taking and renewed producer-- hedging, thus weighing on the markets. Also, more marginal mines in South Africa and elsewhere will be brought back into production and increasing supplies should ultimately lead to lower prices.

It`s important to note that the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe are very different from the great bull-market of 1980/81, when gold skyrocketed to $800/ oz, following the invasion of Afghanistan by the Former Soviet Union and the start of Iran-Iraq war.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Newmont`s Lassonde sees gold at US$350/oz
Michael Quinn
05 August 2002

"We are [at the beginning of] a fundamental gold bull market," the president of the world`s largest gold producer said, offering US$340-350/oz as a possible price 18-24 months ahead, with the caveat that it could be "much higher".

According to Lassonde, a key driver of price rises in the next few years will be devaluation of the US dollar, with recent history seen as a good guide. Lassonde said the US dollar fell against a basket of other currencies in 1985 by 33%, with gold rising in the same period some 60% from US$300/oz to US$500/oz.

He noted the US trade account was about US$440 billion in the red, requiring an inflow of around US$1.3 billion daily to service the deficit. "There`s a law that says what can`t go on forever, stops. Well, it`s stopped," Lassonde said. The US dollar has thus far fallen around 10%, and "I think its going to go further", he added.

On correlations with the S&P500, Lassonde pointed to the 1930s (when the S&P fell 63% and gold went up 69%), 1960s (S&P down 34%, gold up 347%), while the current bear market sees the S&P down 35% - "and in my view has a long way to go" - and gold is up 11%.

On production fundamentals, Lassonde believes prices south of US$325/oz are unsustainable for gold miners, with the weakness of the price over the last few years ensuring reduced production out to 2005.

He said the return on capital by the gold industry at a US$275/oz gold price was 3% while the cost of capital was 9%. "Nobody makes money at US$275/oz," he said.

Lassonde also said the days of hedging - "the bane of this industry for 10 years" - are over, with contangos reaching a mere $3/oz per year.

On Lassonde`s calculations, every 100t hedged/brought to market drops the price by US$5/oz. On this basis the 300-400t worth of reduced hedging expected in the current year will add US$15-20 to the gold price.

At a press conference following the presentation, Lassonde mentioned Newmont was working with the World Gold Council on a new gold investment product that could take up 500-1000t of gold annually.

And he said a new CEO of the WGC would be announced within months and that the appointment, which featured a well-known, credible personality, would indicate the future direction of the peak body.

On operational matters, Newmont will begin grinding trials pertaining to the Boddington project in Western Australia early next year, while the review of the Superpit in Kalgoorlie should be completed by the end of 2002.

And Newmont`s Australasian chief John Dow said work continued to be promising at Golden Grove, where the discoveries of copper and zinc have been equivalent to around 5Moz of gold grading around half-an-ounce.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Inflation, Deflation oder Stagflation! Der Dollar wird kollabieren, wenn die Investoren dieses gesamte Dilemma einmal endgültig (innerhalb eines Monats nach meiner Einschätzung) begreifen! Und dieses wird den Dow Jones ; DAX ; Nasadaq ; Nemax brutal crashen lassen. Meine Einschätzung: 4000 - 5000 beim Dow Jones. Und wenn Amerika hustet, dann hat Euiropa eine starke Grippe!!!
Die stagnierende Wirtschaft neben der importierten Inflation aufgrund eines kollabierenden Dollars wird eine


S T A G F L A T I O N !!!

als Ergebnis haben. Und wenn der normale Investor dieses endgültig begreifen wird, dann wird er den breiten Markt brutal crashen lassen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Unser zukünftiges P/E ist zu niedrig. Value und Fundamentals kommen gelegentlich ins Spiel. Auch sieht es danach aus, als ob die Südafrikaner die Majors wieder anführen werden. Unsere 300% Quartals Gewinnsteigerung gegenüber 2001 verdient Respekt, im Vergleich zu durchschnittlichen S&P Aktien und Nasdaq Aktien.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI`s Momentum hat klar nach oben gedreht und ist kurz davor, das sich wichtige MA`s kreuzen.
XAU...Momentum hat nach oben gedreht.
Gold... Momentum hat nach oben gedreht.
Wir sind in guter Verfassung mit dem ganzen Momentum, das nach oben zeigt. (sicher: es sieht besser aus als vor ein Paar Wochen!!!)

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

THE INDUSTRY ABANDONS "HEDGING"

You know from my past commentaries and reporting on gold that the practice of central banks’ selling or leasing gold to various parties--who, in the case of leased gold, then sell it in the hopes of buying it back at a lower price later--was the chief factor in gold’s bear market declines. A close second, however, was the somewhat similar practice on the part of major gold producers to sell gold still in the ground, in order to lock in a certain price. Generally, the practice known as "hedging"--which took a few different forms, some of which were highly speculative--served to short-circuit any rallies in the gold price. It seemed that any time gold would get some traction, one or more big producers would "forward sell" large amounts of gold. In effect, this was their own vote of "no confidence" in gold’s ability to move higher, and their way of trying to keep cash flow and earnings afloat. In one sense, these companies could hardly be blamed for trying to do the best for their shareholders, given gold’s generally bearish environment for so long. Many, however, considered the hedgers--chief among them Barrick Gold and the above-mentioned Anglo Gold--as pariahs.

A "shot across the bow" for these larger concerns and others came in the spike in late 1999. To a certain extent--and without confusing you unduly in explaining it--the practice of hedging on the part of miners acts much the same way as does a short sale. For as long as the gold price stays at or below the price at which future production was sold, all is well. However, if the current, spot price rises much above that same level, the value of having made those hedges is diminished. Further, in the cases where miners themselves have actually borrowed gold outright (or entered into some kind of derivative contract) they can be faced with margin calls, negative values in their "hedge books," or both.

This happened during the 1999 spike to two companies. Ashanti Goldfields of Ghana racked up enormous paper losses on its derivative portfolio (i.e.--hedge book) and for a while teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Its banking counterparts who had "dibs" on these hedges had the ability to demand substantial cash payments from Ashanti, in order to cover the amounts by which the hedges were now in the red. At the eleventh hour--and assisted by the ultimately successful efforts to rein in gold’s advance--Ashanti managed to barely stay in business. Similarly, Canadian producer Cambior got into trouble with its hedge book.

Though these were the two most publicized examples, you’d better believe that hearts were suddenly pounding fast in other gold mining board rooms. All of a sudden, companies deemed by many (including themselves) as geniuses were being looked at with a jaundiced eye. Maybe it wouldn’t be good after all for some companies if gold did finally go up--and all of a sudden, those few investors interested at the time in gold demanded some answers as to how individual companies would fare if gold finally did turn around.

In the immediate aftermath of this near-disaster, a couple companies came out and announced they were moving away from the practice of hedging. Early on, these announcements--led initially by Placer Dome and Gold Fields--were motivated as much by the companies’ desires to allay fears over their solvency as by any real confidence that gold’s bear market was drawing to a close. Still, there did not seem to be an industry-wide consensus--or motivation--for a practically wholesale abandonment of the practice of hedging.

That changed, however, with the closing in January of Newmont Mining’s acquisition of Canadian-based Franco Nevada, and the Australian miner Normandy. As you’ll remember, I wrote extensively on the months-long struggle between Newmont and Anglo Gold for Normandy in particular; and, far from being your typical battle over an appealing target, this turned into a battle between hedgers (Anglo) and non-hedgers (Newmont.) The non-hedgers won; and both leading up to its acquisition and since, Newmont--now the world’s largest producer--has worn its status on its sleeve.

A number of long-time gold market bulls pointed to Newmont’s victory as the most significant gold market event in decades. And so it was. For, one by one, the most notable hedgers among gold producers have come out and embraced the old-time religion of being bullish for and an advocate of their own product. Before they’d hardly had time to lick their wounds and swallow some pride after losing the battle for Normandy, Anglo Gold came out and said that it would rather switch than fight. In a series of announcements, the big South African miner has said it is "aggressively" unwinding its hedge book.

In a February 5 interview with the Financial Times, Anglo’s Executive Director for Marketing Kelvin Williams indicated that his company would allow its hedge book to "erode" during 2002, while watching for "upside opportunities."

"We think there is a solid floor under the physical gold market," he explained. "And there is no longer a constituency of speculators eager to play the market from the short side. . ."

As gold’s price has continued to rise this Spring, Anglo has occasionally repeated its earlier announcements that it was unwinding its hedges, so as to take better advantage of the rising cash price. Especially conspicuous in recent weeks, though, has been the management of Barrick Gold, the so-called "king" of the hedgers. That company has--similarly to Anglo--been going out of its way at times to assure the market and its own investors that, (1) it, too, is unwinding its hedge book and now selling at least some production into the spot market for the first time in many years, and (2) it has no intention of short-circuiting the rise in gold’s price by adding new hedges.

Except in the most learned gold bug circles and among those who have taken the time to analyze the markets, this story has not received nearly sufficient attention. Coupled with the declining mine supply, the virtual wholesale abandonment of hedging has written the epitaph to the long, nasty bear market endured by gold for so long.

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI vs. HGMCY
Kaufe beide! Dabei wirst du nichts verkehrt machen, eine kleine Überraschung ist auf dem Weg und am Jahresanfang von 2003 werden alle Gold- und Silberminenaktien wesentlich höher stehen als heute. Gehe und kaufe auch Krugerrands bei deinem Münzen Shop.
Dieser faule Zauber bei dem Dow Jones (und bei JP Morgan und der Citigroup) wird bald sein brutales Ende finden.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

(Quelle: Kitco)
I started accumulating gold stocks earlier this week. The bottoming process is being
COMPLETED. I`m a very heavy buyer on all large dips
in GFI, HGMCY, KGC...etc. We are going up
as all the weak hands are now flushed out. Although
I`m very confident I`m still being careful of margin
positions. Let the games begin because I have
plenty of positions now with the buying I did this week.
This was one hell of a correction. Time to move up
with seasonals moving out of our way going into fall.
Our big correction came early and the shares should start
moving up early going into fall. Thats the way I see it.
Good luck out there. Don`t wait to buy when prices are
alot higher. JIMVHO

Looks like HGMCY, GFI will cross $20 on this next run.
Can`t wait !!! IMHO

I agree
Looks like the bottoming is very close to being over according to my charts too. Should be pretty much up moves for the next month or three, starting early next week. :-)

[peter.wedemeier1]

http://members.rogers.com/preciouswaves/081002/Gold.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Burton & Village To Join WGC

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B24225…

[peter.wedemeier1]

CBS Market Watch headliner.
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Das Kaufsignal auf das Investoren 30 Jahre gewartet haben kam gestern, genauso wie in den frühen 70ern., das Gold/S&P 500 Ratio hat nach oben gedreht. Dieses bedeutet, das ein brandneuer gold bull market begonnen hat, ähnlich zu dem Rekorde brechenden bull market von den späten 70ern/frühen 80ern.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Date : August 16, 2002

Evidence That Major Culture Shock Is Already Underway At World Gold Council.



http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Aug-2…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Keine Nationalisierungspläne für die Minenindustrie von der südafrikanischen Regierung! Südafrikanische Minen (GFI, DROOY und RANGY) sind nun spottbillig auf einem Discountpreis.

http://www.m2.com/m2/m2web.nsf/pv/85256A0F00242D3C80256C1700…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Der Goldpreis wurde für ein paar Tage heruntergeklopft. Ich glaube das Asien ein paar Gewinne mitgenommen hat. Die Besetzung der irakischen Botschaft in Berlin und Gerüchte, das Israel den Irak angreifen könnte, ist eine gute Entschuldigung dafür, den Goldpreis abrupt und stark nach oben zu heben für einen schnellen short squeeze Trade. Wer also einen schnellen Trade machen will, sollte jetzt Gold Fields kaufen.

peter.wedemeier1

[Guru-Schreck]

www.godmode-trader.de

Der Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) kann intraday kurz vor Handelsende um 1,27% auf 63,6
Punkte ansteigen. Dieses antizyklische Kursverlaufspattern zu den anderen großen US
Indizes wie etwa dem DOW Jones oder dem Nasdaq konnte man in den letzten Wochen
nicht mehr so eindeutig beobachten wie in den Monaten zuvor.

Insofern bietet sich Gold nicht mehr wie zuvor als Ausweichstation an, um die
Konsolidierungs- oder Korrekturphasen in den großen US Indizes zu überbrücken.

Wochenchart mit Tageschartausschnitt.

Der crashartige Kursverfall in dem Index war durch eine Aufwärtstrendlinie (hellgrün)
aufgefangen worden. Die sich anschließende Kurserholung lief in Form einer bearishen
Keilformation ab. In den letzten Tagen ist der Kurs zwar regelkonform aus dem Keil nach
unten ausgebrochen, der Kursverfall wird allerdings bereits wieder etwas abgebremst.
Shortseller sollten bei Keilformationen immer das Scenario eines letzten Pullbacks in den
Bereich der Keilspitze einkalkulieren.

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI Strong Buy!


peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI richtig auf seinem Drehpunkt!
Seht Euch die Charts der Gold- und Silberminenaktien an. Sie befinden sich sämtlich auf Ihren Drehtpunkten. Wir können ab morgen mit einer nachhaltigen Rallye bei Gold- und Silberminenaktien rechnen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

August 2002

GOLD PULLS BACK TO LONG-TERM SUPPORT. BULL MARKET INTACT.
IF NOT ALREADY ON BOARD, BUY NOW!

Gold has pulled back to long-term support at the $296 to $300 level, and if you haven`t already repurchased my favorite mining shares, don`t wait any longer! I believe both the mining shares and gold bullion are great buys right now.

The next upward phase in the emerging bull market for gold should begin soon, driving the price skyward, and along with it, my favorite mining shares. My target price for the next leg up is $375, but it could go even higher.

Here`s why ...

* Demand for gold is set to explode again. Although it`s already at record highs in many regions of the world, notably Japan, I expect to see demand rise further due to the long-term decline of stock prices around the world and the declining confidence in paper assets. This will magnify the ...

* Ongoing severe shortage of physical gold. Many mining firms and hedge funds, still short of physical gold, continue to have difficulty finding enough bullion to deliver against their short positions. This could lead to a short-covering panic , helping to drive gold prices higher.

* Higher oil prices. While all eyes are glued on the stock market meltdown and sudden rallies, don`t ignore the skyrocketing price of oil. Oil is up nearly 28% since
the first of the year!

"Embrace the New Bull" well maybe, but be careful not to get gored.

[peter.wedemeier1]

aus: GoldInvesting101: Kaufen Sie Goldminenaktien bei Schwäche und auf dips wie diesem, nach einem 20% Pullback.
GFI ist auf diesem Niveau ein Kauf!!!
Jetzt kaufen und am Ende der 10er Range (18,- - 19,- - 20,- wieder mit Gewinn verkaufen!!!). So macht man Geld mit GFI.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold,NY - COT chart @ 082002


Es erscheint das

1. Small spec longs sind gefallen
2. Large spec longs zeigen wieder nach oben
3. Commercials short steigen

Gehe rechnen

[peter.wedemeier1]

>Gold Fields and Goldcorp claim top honours
http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B28525…

[peter.wedemeier1]

As a long term shareholder in GFI, I would like to thank MANAGEMENT for the fantastic performance! This performance gives confidence to weather the volatility that the gold market always to offer. However, the rewards are great, if one is patient. The gold bull market is still intact and investment in GOLDFIELDS means downside risk is limited!!!
WELL DONE MANAGEMENT!

[peter.wedemeier1]

....gfi is a hedge vs declining dollar and weak economies...!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Bull Market Part II Is Not in the Can Yet
Sat Aug 24, 9:49 PM ET
By Pierre Belec

NEW YORK (Reuters)
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=1&cid…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Am Boden fischen. Kurzfristiges Ziel $13,- - 14,-. Seht auf das Gold für eine weitere Rallye. GFI ist gestern um 6,86% auf $10,90 gestiegen.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

How safe is your pension?

As the market slides, an obscure federal agency may pick up the tab on your retirement benefits



By Tom Curry
MSNBC

Aug. 27 — More than 40 million Americans are depending on a little-known federal agency to protect their pensions if recession-wracked companies go belly up and can’t pay retirees what they’ve been promised. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation is the backstop in the event firms can’t pay benefits to retirees. With many corporations sure to report under-funded pension plans by the end of this year, the PBGC is looming larger in importance as the protector of workers and retirees.


http://www.msnbc.com/news/797829.asp?0si=-&cp1=1#BODY

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Case for Gold

by Clive Maund
27 August, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/082702/maund082702_2…

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Jim Sinclair - Gold today
from www.LeMetropoleCafe(dot com)
A Review of Gold By
James Sinclair
August 27th, 2002
Since mid-June we have been in a reaction in the gold and silver price. Today gold moved slightly above the $312 resistance level. The question in everyone`s mind is "Are we out of this reactionary phase and in a new leg in the gold bull market"? Since, I know as a trader myself, I want clear and precise answers, allow me to respond:

1. Yes, the reaction in precious metals is behind us.
2. Gold has fulfilled it downside objective in the spike down intra-day to 298.
3. In practical terms $302-$305 has held the decline in gold as it represents that fundamental level at which the "Risk Control Programs" used by all commercial gold bank dealers have returned all gold derivatives to their fully exposed short spread position.
4. At present there is a window in time, until the end of the first week of October 2002, that will allow the general equities market to snap back from declines with significant rallies.
5. Therefore the way for gold to a new high in this leg will be hampered by set backs due to talking head heralding a "Return to Reality (theirs)" with each rally until the end of the first week of October 2002.
6. The gold shares are in a new leg up in their bull market.
7. Much of the share debacle (not reaction) came, in my opinion, as a result of the promotion of the Prechter deflationist scenario coupled with an overbought condition that the gold shares had accumulated.
8. The period in which the general equities market has rally potential will end early in at the end of the first week of October 2002 for a while.
9. After that (end of the first week of October), in my opinion, the gold and silver market will have an uninterrupted period in which a new high in the present leg is quite possible. Certainly a test of the $329.94 will, IMO, occur
10. The key number on gold is now $329.94. The "Derivative WARS," which are being fought daily between the JPM, Goldman, Lehman, Merrills of the world and the Asian bullish interest will be lost by the Gold derivative dealers when gold closes above $330 now, not necessarily the $354.
11. A close above $330 will give us, IMO, $380-$400
12. Gold is in a transition back to currency where is has significant value. When gold is purely a commodity it is of questionable value. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, which underscore the bull market for gold. It is this transition, gold back to a currency, that is not recognized by the gold dealer`s cartel, the central banks or the talking heads of Wall Street.
13. By the end of this year or very early next, IMO, all five fundamental criteria for a long term bull market in gold will be in place. When that occurs the bear raids of the gold cartel will be history
14. Overhead resistance is at $312.50 today. We are as I write at this on the cash gold bid. Above that we have significant resistance at $317.50 and then at $329.94.
15. It is not all-clear skies for gold yet, but it is in the making.

[peter.wedemeier1]

10 Lessons from the Corporate Collapse
By David Moberg


http://www.inthesetimes.com/issue/26/21/feature2.shtml

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields ist eine von den stärksten Minen in der Region.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Al Qaeda Gold Moved to Sudan
Iran, U.A.E. Used as Transit Points

By Douglas Farah
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 3, 2002; Page A01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27535-2002Sep…

A widening chasm in year since Sept. 11
Glenn Kessler The Washington Post Monday, September 2, 2002

http://www.iht.com/articles/69419.html

[epipoly]

@Peter.Wedemeier1

1) Siehst du eine eilige Notwendigkeit sich in Gold
zu engagieren ?

2) Zwar ein altes Thema - aber was ist mit Deflation ?
Bis zu einer sich anschließenden Inflation kann noch viel Zeit vergehen.

3)Was ist in Zukunft mit den Notenbanken(2004) u.a der
Schweiz?


Gruß epipoly

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ich empfehle in Gold- und Silberminenaktien zu investieren. Wie Ihr gerade über Nacht beobachten konntet, steigt der Goldpreis sehr stark an. Die Schmerzempfindlichkeit von den großen Spielern wie JP und Citigroup, die beim Gold noch short sind, wird gerade ernsthaft geprüft. Viele rechnen damit, das es zu einem short squeeze kommen kann. Dann werden vor allem die unhedgten Minen davon am stärksten profitieren. Ob wir tatsächlich in der Zukunft einen Goldpreis von $2000-5000/oz sehen werden, wie zwei Techniker vor kurzem verööfentlicht haben, wird man sehen. Auf jeden Fall rechne ich zum Jahresende mit einem deutlich höheren Goldpreis von mindestens $340,-.

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Breakaway gap bei gesteigertem Volumen (Long Empfehlung)

Geht long bei GFI. Volumen, MACD, und Kursbewegung sind positiv und stark. GFI ist eine von den größeren Gold Minen, und Größe ist wichtig wenn du ein Investment bei den Commodities erwägst
das bullish ist.

[peter.wedemeier1]

David Marantette Recommends the Following Stocks: GLG, GG and GFI
Wednesday September 11, 6:00 am ET


CHICAGO, Sept. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Unless you plan on staking a claim in Alaska, the gold sector may be a viable alternative. But it can be a complex segment to explore, so David Marantette is here to help clear up confusion and give gold investors the best chance to discover profit. http://www.featuredexpert2.zacks.com .

Here are the highlights from the Featured Expert column:

Even if we are in a bear market in the stock market or in gold stocks, there are moves to the upside. Some of these bounces up, inside the bear, can be very profitable if executed correctly. At the end of July, the weekly cycles and the daily cycles had all converged into a sharp price bottom from the May top, which Marantette called, almost to the hour.

Notice the daily readings for these companies are all above 90, in the sell area.

Glamis Gold, Ltd. (NYSE: GLG) explores, develops and extracts precious metals in several locations, but especially in California, Nevada, Honduras, San Luis Potosi in Mexico, Guatemala, Panama and El Salvador. Its operations are conducted through its wholly owned subsidiary, Glamis Gold, Inc. This week`s low was 9.21.

Goldcorp, Inc. (NYSE: GG) is a gold producer that owns one of the highest- grade gold deposits in the world. There`s an Entropy rise on GG. Any move below this week`s price lows will be another signal to get out. This week`s low was 10.34.

Gold Fields, Ltd. (NYSE: GFI) is an independent precious metals company that conducts operations through exploration and mining. It produces about 4.7 million ounces of gold annually. There`s an Entropy rise on GFI. The weekly readings are all above 50. This week`s low was 11.85.

[epipoly]

@peter.wedermeier1
Was ist am 22. September?
Als Fachmann müßtest du dies doch wissen!?.
Es ist nicht die Bundestagswahl.

Deinen ständigen Horrorszenarien ist zu entnehmen, daß man ein sehr negativ denkender Mensch sein muß um Gold etwas Positives abzugewinnen.

Für einem rasanten Anstieg bedarf es wahrscheinlich einer Kombinationen von mehreren extrem außergewöhnlichen Ereignisse (IMHO).Japan Probleme alleine haben
dies in den letzten Jahren auch nicht mal geschafft.
Ob dann das Leben trotz einer Tonne Gold im Keller lebenswert ist, ist wohl Geschmackssache.


Gruß epipoly

[peter.wedemeier1]

@epipoly
Eins will ich mal klar stellen. Die Fakten für diese News schaffen die anderen. Ich gebe sie nur weiter.

Exclusive: Scott Ritter in His Own Words
The former weapons inspector explains his switch from getting up Saddam`s nose to picking fights with Bush

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,351165,00.htm…

[huetchenspieler]

Wedemeier kein kontraindikator mehr ?
Erst mal abwarten...

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Barron`s
Who`s a truly successful investor? One who`s happily heading out to the golf course on a weekday afternoon -- while the market`s open and down 200 points.

Those were the plans of Michael O`Higgins when his phone rang last week at the Miami office housing his eponymous investment firm of O`Higgins Capital Management. You, too, might be tempted to shoot a round during the workday if you were up 27% so far this year, one in which (if you needed to be reminded) the major averages are down anywhere from 17% for the Dow to twice that for the Nasdaq. And eschewing any false modesty, Mike also notes that his funds are up over 400% in the five years through September, a span in which the bubble and its bursting has left the S&P 500 basically flat.

When this column checked in with Mike back in May, he already was up 19% for the year, owing to a combination of shorts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, combined with longs in gold stocks. He covered those short positions during July`s nose dive because Mike says he felt that he had too much company in his bearishness. (He got that same feeling last November, when he sold his long-term Treasury zero-coupon bonds that he rode from a 15% yield in 1980 all the way down to under 5%.) By mid-summer, insider trading (the legal kind done by corporate types) had turned to the buy side after officers had been dumping four times as much as they were buying earlier in the year. The VIX -- the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, popularly viewed as the market`s "fear index" -- spiked higher, signaling some kind of panic blow-off. So he cashed in his winnings on that bet.
But Mike was quick to add that he could be resetting those shorts any time now. Why? "We`re setting up a similar situation to what preceded the crash of `87." For those of you whose memories don`t stretch back 15 years, the market plunged as much on a single Monday that October -- 22% -- as it has lost so far this doleful year.

"Basically, people are even from five years ago," Mike observes. "If the market is down from here, they`re underwater." Mutual-fund investors are apt to start bailing out again, "in a mirror image to the late `Nineties," he says. Equity funds saw some $47 billion exit during July`s downdraft, and though bottom-pickers having been back in buying funds of late, he thinks folks will start dumping their funds again once the market resumes its trip south.

Fund managers, Mike alarmingly notes, have been running down cash positions since the beginning of the year to meet redemptions. Simple math dictates that cash would be rising as a percentage of fund portfolios as the value of the stocks they hold declines. Instead, they`re getting more deeply invested, which will force more liquidations if their shareholders start to redeem again.

Add to that the litany of other signs of still-excessive valuations, notably paltry dividend yields, which have crept up to only 2.2% for the DJIA. Dividends, he dryly adds, are something beyond accountants` ability to manipulate.
Besides shorting the indexes, Mike sees gold shares as a mirror image to stocks, and indeed to paper assets of all types. "Around the world, people have gotten screwed by holding paper currencies -- in Russia and Argentina, Europeans lost 35% by holding euros, not to mention if you owned Enron, WorldCom or Global Crossing." And gold`s allure now isn`t as an inflation hedge. Ed Hyman`s ISI Group points out that gold has moved up while the TIPS spread -- the yield premium regular Treasuries pay over inflation-protected securities -- has contracted.

Mike sees gold as being where stocks were in 1982. For nearly 20 years up to that point, the Dow spent virtually all of its time between 750 and 1000, before it broke through that ceiling and never looked back. Gold, after spiking to $800 an ounce in early 1980, steadily declined, and has spent the last five years mostly between $250 and $300, conditioning people to sell at the top end of that range. This year, the metal broke through to $330, slipped back to near -- but not below -- $300 and has been consolidating around $320.

Gold shares have had a better run, with the XAU (the Philadelphia gold and silver index) soaring from 55 at the beginning of the year to 89 at mid-year, only to give almost all of it back in July`s slide. Since then, however, the XAU is back up to 76, and headed to 100, says Mike. His play: all cash and 7% in call options on the XAU.

Of the sector, he says: "It`s so cheap and it acts so beautifully." At gold`s peak 22.5 years ago, the Dow and the metal sold at roughly the same price. Now, the DJIA fetches about 26 times the gold price. The average ratio, Mike points out, is 10-to-12 times. There are two ways to get back to that golden mean: stocks could be halved or the metal could double. You get the idea he doesn`t mind how he gets there

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold fund glitters in dull market
Steve Johnson
FT.com site; Sep 17, 2002

"Of Gold Fields , his largest holding, he says: "Two or three years ago it could be bought for the equivalent of less than $20 an ounce for reserves in the ground."

Gold Fields is among the 41 per cent of the portfolio that is invested in South African-based stocks - a market that was recently hit by the release of a draft mining charter drawn up by the nation`s department of Minerals and Energy calling for a substantial transfer of mining assets to black ownership.

Not good News

"We were quite upset by the draft mines charter and took the view that it was not good news," Mr Birch says understatedly. "Subsequently the government has backed away and things have calmed down a bit."

As a result of the uncertainty, Mr Birch said he would be looking for higher returns from South African stocks to compensate. But he argues that Gold Fields, as well as other leading South African holdings such as AngloGold and Harmony Gold , have all diversified their operations into other countries.

Although North America and Australia (at 28 and 11 per cent respectively) are the next largest regions in Gold & General, there is a strong overall emerging markets bias. Despite the uncertainty this can bring, as South Africa has vividly shown, Mr Birch sees this as a positive.

Licence to print money

"These economies tend to have weak currencies. This is quite a good thing for a gold mine, which is a machine that prints hard currency. In a weak currency area profits are greater, as costs are in the local currency and income is in US dollars."

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold execs make bold bullion bets

Thom Calandra
CBS.MarketWatch
Sep 23, 2002 12:30PM ET

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Executives from some of the world`s most successful gold companies say they expect further gains for the metal.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/calandra/calandra092302.ht…

[epipoly]

@peter.wedemeier

Zunächst mal ist dein Engagement hier im WO:
sehr lobenswert!
Aber zur Klarstellung von reiner Berichterstattung(#71) zu sprechen ist bei so manchen Kommentaren von dir leicht übertrieben, oder(IMHO)!?

Gruß epipoly

[peter.wedemeier1]

>IN DEPTH: Ian Cockerill, CE, Gold Fields
By: Tim Wood
DENVER -
http://www.mips1.net/mgdg2.nsf/Current/85256C3A0051804C42256…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Auf diesem Niveau sollte man Gold Fields aber lieben! Die Stochastics sind überverkauft hier und der MACD agiert als Kontra-Indikator.

peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI und Elliott Wellen:

GFI befindet sich am Ende von seiner Welle 4. Danach folgt die Welle 5 aufwärts wo wir wesentlich höhere Kurse sehen werden!


peter.wedemeier1

[peter.wedemeier1]

To: TA Students
From: Jim Sinclair
Date: 10/18/2002
RE: Fibonacci Retrenchments -- Support & Resistance


http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/lessons/1…




GFI Gold Fields
Has experienced some significant pressure. It is holding at the support level formed to its left.

I believe the operative indicators here is the $11 Fibonacci resistance line, the DT with a need improvement both on the MADC 3-6-7 and the Momentum 14.

[peter.wedemeier1]

"Like Goldcorp, this issue maintained its positive character.

Both the MACD and Momentum remained supportive.

Therefore it is reasonable to conclude the GFI & GG will be among the front runners."

http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/tech/review/10…

[joeblack4]

@peter.wedemeier
Hallo erst einmal.
Ich hoffe, du wirst irgentwann diese Antwort lesen. Ich habe ein Problem und ich denke, das du mir helfen kannst.
Ich habe bis vor kurzem an eine wirtschaftliche Erholung geglaubt, aber mittlerweile denke ich, das die Rezession noch länger, sehr viel Länger anhalten wird.
Ich habe also vor, mein Geld in Goldminenaktien anzulegen.
Möchte mein Geld wie folgt aufteilen:
- Gold Fields 856777
- New M. 853823
- Barrick 870450
- Anglogold 854434
Jetzt habe ich gleich mehrere Fragen:
1.) Was ist hinsichtlich der prozentualen Aufteilung zu bedenken? Ich strebe eher etwas sicheres an, also nicht zu spekulativ.Wie also würdest du eine Aufteilung vornehmen??
2.)Soll ich ADR oder normale Aktien nehmen?
3.) Hast du vielleicht noch den einen anderen interessanten Vorschlag, was Goldminenaktien betrifft?
Ich danke dir schon mal...-
Gruss

[bestofme]

...der chart sieht sicher schön aus.....
...leider ist der goldmarkt total manipuliert, daher betrachte ich die chartanalyse, als wenig aussagefähig.......

[joeblack4]

@bestofme
Das habe ich auch öfter gelesen. Ich bereite mich auf eine Anlageentscheidung vor.
J.P. Morgan und Citibank sollen im Goldbereich shortpositionen eingegangen sein. Das hat zur Folge, das bei steigenden Preisen ein Blutbad der amerikanischen Banken zu erwarten wäre.
Um das zu verhindern, deckelt die Fed den Goldpreis. Man sollte den Spruch: "Never bet against the Fed "berücksichtigen, aber wie lange kann die Fed den Kurs des Goldes noch drücken und den Dow oben halten?
Ich denke, das es nicht mehr all zu lange möglich ist.
Der Dow hätte aufgrund der aktuellen Schwäche einen Wert von 4000-5000 Punkten, der S&P sollte bei 400 liegen. Berechnungsgrundlage ist das durchschnittliche KGV.
Werde mich trotzdem mit Goldminenaktien eindecken, weil langfristig sicherlich positiv und vor allem sicher.
Gruss

[Saccard]

Eigentlich kann ich von den genannten Aktien nur abraten.

Newmont ist vergleichsweise teuer. Alles hängt davon ab, wie gut exploriert wird. Selbst die superteure Glamis ist verglichen mit Newmont billig, hat gar keine Hedges oder Schulden.

Barrick hat derzeit Produktionskosten von weit über 300 USD. Einfach über derz. Gewinn, derz. Verkauferlös berechnen. Fakt ist, daß Barrick ohne Hedging niemals hätte überleben können. Produktionskosten der open pit Minen liegen bei den Großen (also auch Newmont) de facto bei 300 bis 320 USD, bei einbeziehung der Explorationskosten bei 350 bis eher 400 USD... Wertvernichtung pur in den letzten Jahren.

Anglo und Gold Fields sehen besser aus, dafür aber das Südafrika Risiko. Entweder Enteignung oder bei stabilen pol. verhältnissen über höhere Löhne höhere Produktionskosten (womöglich sogar stärkerer Rand!).

Lieber also gleich in Gold investieren oder aber Werte mit Sondersituationen (Cambior, Vista usw.). Sondersituation heißt entweder EXTREM gehegt oder aber EXTREM leverage auf Gold.

Gruß
S.

[joeblack4]

@saccard
Zunächst mal vielen Dank für deine Antwort. Ich kenne mich in dem Bereich Goldminenaktien absolut nicht aus. Also habe ich bei onvista die Goldfonds mit der grössten Performance gesucht und dort die 6 Top-Holdings heraus gesucht.
Als Quintessenz sind die 4 Kandidaten übrig geblieben.
Habe mich auch ein wenig an Empfehlungen der Banken gehalten.
Die kleineren Unternehmen lasse ich aussen vor. Wie gesagt, wenig Risiko.
Trotzdem vielen Dank
Gruss

[peter.wedemeier1]

Hallo joeblack4. Danke für deine Nachfrage! die ich erst jetzt beantworten werde.
Also hier meine Empfehlung:

1. Also wenn die Rallye beginnt, dann hat Sinclair Recht, dann werden die Favoriten Goldcorp GG und Gold Fields GFI das Rennen anführen. Das Südafrika Problem ist nun ein non event! Vergesse die Mega Hedger wie Barrick Gold und Newmont Mining. Auch im Moment die Finger weg bei Anglogold (ein Sonderproblem!). Zu Silber* empfehle ich dir schau einmal im Pan American Board rein und lese vor allem die Beiträge wo Ted Butler darunter steht.

Folgende Minen habe ich im Depot neben GFI und GG und kann ich jeden empfehlen!:

- Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)
- Apex Silver Mines (SIL)*
- ASA (ASA)
- Ashanti Goldfields (GFI)
- Bema Gold (BGO)
- Cambior (CBJ)
- Cameco (CCJ) (Uran und Gold)
- Cia de Minas Buenaventura (BVN)
- Coeur Dalene Mines (CDE)*
- Crystallex International (KRY)
- Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY)
- Freep. McMoran Copper&Gold (FCX) (Kupfer und Gold)
- Glamis Gold (GLG)
- Gold Fields (GFI)
- Goldcorp (GG)
- Golden Star Resources (GSS)
- Harmony Gold Mining (HGMCY)
- Hecla Mining (HL)*
- Kinross Gold (KGC)
- Meridian Gold (MDG)
- North American Palladium (PAL)(Platin)
- Pan American Silver (PAAS)*
- Randgold % Exploration (RANGY)
- Richmont Mines (RIC)
- Royal Gold (RGLD)
- Silver Standard Resources (SSRI)*
- Stillwater Mining ((SWC)(Platin)
- Vista Gold (VGZ)

Empfehlung:

Tradingkapital = 100 %
pro Mine = 2,5 %
Rest = ein guter Geldmarktfonds.

Im Moment ist ein guter Einstiegszeitpunkit bei allen Minen. Zu allen Minen existiert ein Board von mir.

Beim Gold stehen wir in den frühen Stufen eines sehr lange anhaltenden jungen bull Marktes.
Silber kann aufgrund der Manipulation jederzeit explodieren. Dann sollte man in diesen Minen bereits sein. Platin wird ebenso stark ansteigen.

Gruß Peter

[peter.wedemeier1]

Wenn`s los geht, dann werden Goldcorp (GG) und Gold Fields (GFI) diesen Bull anführen!

Gruß Peter

[bestofme]

...ich verfolge den goldmarkt seit 20 jahren...
...das einzige, was man sagen kann, ist, daß der greenspan & co so gut wie jede beliebige chartformation nach eigenbedarf produzieren können....auffällig ist die korrelation zu $....
....ein starker $ macht halt das gold schwach...
...wahrscheinlich wollen die usa das gold als außenwert des $ verstehen...und hin und wieder klappt es eben nicht...
...sonst wäre gold x $ recht konstant.....und jetzt ist die zeit des starken $ oder?......

[jeffery2]

@peter, jetzt knie Dich mal in Avgold rein. War heute in Jo-burg einer der Topwinner. Über 4 % aufi.
Der nächste Merger, ja ich weis ich spinne bestimmt.
Aber wo die doch so schön viel Reserven in der Erden haben.
schaun mer mal, vielleicht kann ich Weihnachten diesmal einen Baum kaufen.
J2

[kyron]

Jeffry 2

Kaufe Dir lieber Lihir,
zwecks Christbaumfinanzierung.
bei Avgold, die sind so langsam, da kannst Du Dir nur selber einige Tannenzapfen fùr die Weihnachtsdekoration zusammenklauben.

[peter.wedemeier1]

@kyron und jefferey2
Laßt mal, ich habe schon die besten Minen. Diese stehen nämlich oben in meiner Liste!

Gestern schloß einige viel besser als eure AVGold oder Lihir Gold!

- Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) +5,26%
- Apex Silver Mines (SIL)* +3,80%
- ASA (ASA) +2,22%
- Ashanti Goldfields (GFI) +4,40%
- Bema Gold (BGO) +9,28%
- Cambior (CBJ) +9,76%
- Cameco (CCJ) (Uran und Gold) +2,48%
- Cia de Minas Buenaventura (BVN) +1,14%
- Coeur Dalene Mines (CDE)* +3,70%
- Crystallex International (KRY) +7,01%
- Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY) -1,86%
- Freep. McMoran Copper&Gold (FCX) (Kupfer und Gold) +2,85%
- Glamis Gold (GLG) +6,03%
- Gold Fields (GFI) +4,40%
- Goldcorp (GG) +2,14%
- Golden Star Resources (GSS) +4,91%
- Harmony Gold Mining (HGMCY) +5,16%
- Hecla Mining (HL)* +0,59%
- Kinross Gold (KGC) +7,64%
- Meridian Gold (MDG) +5,53%
- North American Palladium (PAL)(Platin) +1,72%
- Pan American Silver (PAAS)* +0,18%
- Randgold % Exploration (RANGY) +5,71%
- Richmont Mines (RIC) +9,62%
- Royal Gold (RGLD) +8,13%
- Silver Standard Resources (SSRI)* +2,00%
- Stillwater Mining ((SWC)(Platin) +4,74%
- Vista Gold (VGZ) +3,76%

Dringende Empfehlung an alle anderen: Finger weg von AVGold und Lihir Gold.

Small Cap Gold Companies Offer Better Value
Interview by Donna Guzik

The price of bullion will likely move higher, and there are a few gold stocks out there with plenty of upside, says Royal Bank Financial Group Vice President & Portfolio Manager John Embry


GLAMIS GOLD LTD (T.GLG)
KINROSS GOLD CP (T.K)
MERIDIAN GOLD INC (T.MNG)

"The only reason you should own (some of) these stocks (is that) you have to believe that the gold price is going up from this point."

Summary

The Royal Precious Metals Fund has seen returns of close to 100% in the past year.

Last April, Mr. Embry liked where the price of bullion was headed, but at the time thought the gold stocks were overvalued.

Now he`s more optimistic. We could see the price of bullion clear $325 or $330 and at the same time gold stocks have now come down to more reasonable valuation levels.

The driving force behind the bullion: inflation concerns and problems in the world economy.

The central banks have still been supplying gold to the market. The day they stop the price of gold will rise even higher because general demand is still strong.

When the gold price was at the $250-$275 level, many companies had to work their mines extremely hard in order to earn enough money to keep their business together.

We have seen somewhat disappointing results from a number of gold companies including Agnico Eagle (AGE:TSX) and Barrick (ABX:TSX), they are disappointing both on cash costs and production levels.

If the price of gold goes up there may be some better value in smaller gold companies, but if the price of gold goes down, you’d rather own some of the intermediate companies like Goldcorp (G:TSX), Glamis (GLG:TSX) and Meridian (MDG:NYSE) that that can are low cost and will continue to churn out the profits.

One company that has a lot of potential once the gold price goes up is the newly formed Kinross (K:TSX), which is a merger of Kinross, TVX and Echo Bay.

Gruß Peter

[jeffery2]

Hecla, Paas, Drooy ??????????
Werden doch so heftig beworben hier im Board. Na denn man tau.
J2

[kyron]

Peter
Heute hat Lihir angezogen, 3,2 %.
Auch sollte jetzt endlich eine fette Dividende
aus PNG anspùlen.

[boersenhenning]

Kann mir jemand erklären,warum DROOY gestern im MInus war?

[peter.wedemeier1]

@kyron
Bema Gold, Hecla Mining, Royal Gold (Top Performer!), Meridian Gold, Glamis Gold und Kinross Gold und die anderen die in der Liste stehen @93 sind bei einem steigenden Gold,- Silber- und Platinpreis gegenüber Lihir Gold klar als eindeutige Favoriten anzusehen. Deshalb habe ich auch nicht AVGold und Lihir Gold.

Gruß Peter

[jeffery2]

Werden diese ca. 30 Aktien beobachtet oder hast Du den ganzen Zoo im Depot @Peter ?
Deine oft empfohlene Barrick vermisse ich. Ja wo isse denn?
J2

[peter.wedemeier1]

@jefferey2
Sind alles Depotwerte von mir! Und werden auch von mir bei Bedarf kommentiert.

Gruß Peter

[bestofme]

@jeffery2

...seine barrick habe ich...
..hab ich ihm noch rechtzeitig weggeschnappt...

[kyron]

Peter, Du hast wohl recht.
Es ist eigenartig, was man besitzt,
besetzt auch einen ganz schòn.

Ich habe die Lihirs gùnstig erstanden,
so bei 0,38 - 0,42,
sollte daher den Bestand halbieren
und die Anlage mehr streuen.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields: Looks firm in its up trend. I expect it to reflect the gold price with some chop before it makes better upside accomplishment.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Focus: Iraq

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carve-up of oil riches begins

US plans to ditch industry rivals and force end of Opec, write Peter Beaumont and Faisal Islam

Sunday November 3, 2002
The Observer
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,825103,…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Distant voices tell of life for Britons caged in Camp Delta

Letters to families reveal hunger strikes and suicides in US jail for terror suspects

Paul Harris and Burhan Wazir
Sunday November 3, 2002
The Observer
http://www.observer.co.uk/libertywatch/story/0,1373,825198,0…

[peter.wedemeier1]

11/03/2002

U.S Financial Aid To Israel:
Figures, Facts, and Impact



Summary

http://wrmea.com/html/us_aid_to_israel.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

US soldiers being given green light
WASHINGTON, Nov. 1 ?Kuwait, Washington`s closest ally in the Arab world, has agreed to exempt Americans from prosecution by the new International Criminal Court for actions inside the country`s borders, a State Department official said today.

Kuwait and the United States are to sign the agreement, known as an Article 98 agreement after the relevant section of the treaty that set up the court, at a ceremony in Washington next week, the official said.

The court has a mandate to prosecute war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.

Thirteen other countries ?Romania, Israel, East Timor, the Marshall Islands, Tajikistan, Palau, Mauritania, the Dominican Republic, Uzbekistan, Honduras, Afghanistan, Micronesia and Gambia ?have accepted similar agreements with the United States.

The United States wants all countries to sign such pacts on the ground that Americans should not be exposed to politically motivated or frivolous prosecutions. Most of its European allies have resisted, saying the agreements undermine the court`s authority.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Top Financial News



11/02 03:39
European Stocks May Drop on Concern Rate Cuts Won`t Spur Rally
By Ben Richardson


London, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) --
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

[peter.wedemeier1]

11/02 10:38
U.S. Treasury`s $40 Bln Debt Sale May Be Costly: Bond Outlook
By Heather Bandur


New York, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Top Financial News



11/02 09:52
Rate Cut May Drive Investors Away From Dollar: Currency Outlook
By Vivianne Rodrigues


New York, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Top Financial News



11/02 10:53
Investors Wary of Last Bull Market`s Stars: U.S. Stocks Outlook
By Robert Dieterich


New York, Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) --
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%…

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Optimistic Bear

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/Zealllc/1036269959.php

[peter.wedemeier1]

Say hello to Gold

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
posted 01 November, 2002

Extracted from the 1 November, 2002 issue of Richard Russell`s Dow Theory Remarks

Hey, you want to know the great irony of economics today? Here it is -- every nation in the world is dying to sell its goods and merchandise and commodities to the USA. And the USA pays all these poor bastards with junk paper money that is created out of thin air, created by our very own Federal Reserve.

The question is -- how much longer can this go on? How long will our overseas friends go along with this charade? I really don`t know. But I do know one thing -- sooner or later this ridiculous trading will come to a halt. Sooner or later people and nations are going to demand something real in return for their goods and their merchandise and their commodities.

Say hello to gold.

I think a year or two years or maybe five years we`ll be looking back at 319 dollar gold, and we`ll be saying to ourselves, "Where the hell was I? Where was I when gold was selling like dirt for 319 dollars an ounce when the world was being flooded with hundreds and billions of dollars of credits. Why did I believe the Fed when it told me
that gold was garbage and dollars were money?"

And so it goes. It reminds me of a story told about Einstein. Einstein was asked about infinity. He thought for a moment and said, "There are two things that are infinite -- space and human stupidity."

He`s another irony. The dollar is weak. Today the Dec. Dollar Index broke to it lowest level since July. The 50-day moving average of the Dec. Dollar Index (107.70) has turned down, and the Dec. Dollar Index has plunged far below its 50-day MA. As I write the Dec. Dollar Index is at 106.02.

What does a country do to defend its currency? It raises rates, making its currency more attractive. But the US economy is so weak that it`s now a "given" that the Fed next week will lower rates by a quarter of a point or possibly a half.

Meanwhile, as I write this morning Dec. gold was up 2.50 before falling back. Question -- why aren`t the gold shares surging instead of reluctantly ticking higher? My opinion -- the gold shares have been whacked so many times, they`ve been battered back and forth so many times -- that investors don`t trust them to move higher with gold. In fact, deep in their hearts investors don`t trust the whole gold situation.

Big money, serious money, multi-million dollar money wants the metal, they want the safety of actual gold. When you hold gold you hold pure wealth that`s ultimately beyond any government or government regulation to destroy.

Gold shares are different. Gold shares are common stocks. Gold shares are mining operations. Gold companies can be confiscated by nations, they can be trampled by regulations, they can be battered by rebel forces, they can be subject to mine problems, they can be taxed, and like AEM they can watered with the issuance of additional shares of stock.

Me, I like both. But I`m not kidding myself. Gold, the metal, is at the base of the wealth pyramid. Gold doesn`t tarnish, it doesn`t go out of style, it is our great barrier against the Fed`s obsession with creating paper junk money.

Gold stocks are a great speculation when the metal moves higher. Many mines, particularly mines with low-grade gold, have big leverage when the price of gold rises.

As I see it, it`s going to take time, maybe a lot of time, before investors believe that the bull market in gold is for real. In the meantime, as in all bull markets, gold will try to climb as high as it is able while NOT ATTRACTING the crowd.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Published on Friday, November 1, 2002 in the Christian Science Monitor
Bush and American Humble Pie
by Daniel Schorr

WASHINGTON

http://www.commondreams.org/views02/1101-04.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Published on Friday, November 1, 2002 in the Miami Herald
Today`s Hawks Conveniently Avoided Combat
by Rodolfo Acuña
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/1101-02.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

A Day at the American Enterprise Institute
by Russell Mokhiber and Robert Weissman

Didn`t have anything good to do earlier this week, so decided to spend the day at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI).

AEI is the granddaddy of the big corporate front groups. Their job?

Re-engineer the political economy to the liking of their corporate paymasters.

Last year, AEI took in $23 million from corporations, corporate foundations, and wealthy individuals.

Need to undermine the antitrust laws?

Hire AEI scholar in residence Robert Bork to spew his ideology.

Need to slander the United Nations?

Hire AEI scholar in residence Jeanne Kirkpatrick to do the dirty work.

AEI, Heritage, and Cato, the big three corporate fronts in our nation`s capital, have done immeasurable damage to our democracy, advancing corporatist and extremist right-wing views.

We wanted to know: is it the power of their ideas, or is it their power?

After spending a day at AEI, we suspect it`s the latter.

In the morning, we caught a session titled: Europe: Anti-Semitism Resurgent?

Looked around the audience. There was Bork. There was Kirkpatrick.

They were there to listen to what was supposed to be a debate between two right-wingers, Ruth Wisse of Harvard University and John O`Sullivan, of United Press International.

But there was little debate.

Everyone agreed that the issue wasn`t anti-semitism, as traditionally defined, but anti-Israel views.

In fact, Wisse and O`Sullivan had now effectively redefined the term anti-semitism to mean anti-Israel.

We had suspected this, but didn`t get a confirmation until a questioner in the audience asked Wisse about Billy Graham`s 1972 conversation with Richard Nixon, memorialized on the White House tapes, and made public earlier this year by the National Archives.

In the conversation, Graham says to Nixon that "a lot of Jews are great friends of mine."

"They swarm around me and are friendly to me," Graham says. "Because they know I am friendly to Israel and so forth. They don`t know how I really feel about what they`re doing to this country."

And how does he feel?

Graham tells Nixon that the Jews have a "stranglehold" on the country, and "this stranglehold has got to be broken or the country`s going down the drain."

"You believe that?" Nixon says.

"Yes, sir," Graham replies.

"Oh boy," Nixon says. "So do I. I can`t ever say that but I believe it."

So, the questioner wanted to know whether Professor Wisse considered these sentiments, as expressed by Graham, and widely publicized earlier this year, to be anti-semitic.

No, they are not anti-semitic, Professor Wisse says.

Not anti-semitic?

No, anti-semitism exists today in the form of "political organization" against Israel.

Inference: the religious right in this country, as long as they organize politically to support Israel, can say and think whatever they want about Jews.

Not anti-semitism.

We went for a walk in the rain, a reality check with nature, and then back in to catch another AEI panel, this one titled: "Does Excessive Regulation Threaten Subprime Lending?" featuring Gary Gilmer, the vice chairman of Household International, a finance company which just last week was slapped by a group of state attorneys general for engaging in predatory lending -- basically ripping off the poor with outrageous interest rates and fees.

The company paid $484 million to settle the case.

Household is one of the largest sub-prime lenders in the country.

While sub-prime lenders provide credit to borrowers with damaged credit, some of these lenders have engaged in predatory practices whereby consumers -- even those with good credit -- are targeted to borrow money on disadvantageous terms, including high interest rates,

[peter.wedemeier1]

Among those with strong RS (Relative Strength) were Royal Gold (again), Glamis, Harmony, Goldfields, Meridian, Newmont. U can judge RS for yourself, just compare the price action, one chart with another. If U move out of weak shares into stronger RS shares it obviously strengthens your pf (portfolio).

Gold Charts R Us
"Trade gold stocks to triple your profits."
GOLDEN BALL in your court

from Harry Schultz
posted November 8, 2002

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schultz/schultz110802.html

[Insiderin007]

Von der relativen Stärke ist bei GFI heute aber auch absolut nichts zu merken...
Liegt`s an den schlechten Quartalsergebnissen ?
Insiderin007

[peter.wedemeier1]

COMPANIES
Gold Fields denies Canadian bid rumour
Posted Fri, 08 Nov 2002

http://business.iafrica.com/news/183309.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields profit falls 13% as firmer rand hits home
Andrew Davidson and Bloomberg
November 08 2002 at 08:16AM
Johannesburg
http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider…

[peter.wedemeier1]

COMMENTS FROM JIM SINCLAIR:

This is going to be the toughest call of this entire $300 - $330 sideways movement. The reason why is because, as we enter the $320 - $325 range, there is a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market. The gold market is so used to the arrival of JPM, Lehman, Goldman and Merrill as sellers pounding the market, that gold shares now almost automatically decelerate, as a knee-jerk reaction to gold being at the the $320 -$325 price. At this price, the gold shares` appreciation decelerates and actually stops dead in their tracks.

What the market has failed to realize is that these gold dealers, due to their own liquidity situations, are now no longer the big position takers in gold as they were before. All they have been doing lately is exercising clients` orders. The sellers of gold that have come into gold market at the $320 - $325 area have not been the gold cartel. They have been the local floor traders and speculator computer traders. Again, not the cartel. This is why we have had higher lows as we chop sideways.

I firmly believe the chances of taking out the $330 level to the upside before Christmas is real because the significant enemy of the gold price, the gold cartel, is out of business. They have had their trading capital called back to the parent holding company because of the effects of the credit downgrade on the parent holding companies. When the market wakes up that the enemy is no longer there, no event will be required to take gold above $330. It will simply go there.

Here is how we will determine if gold is going to break out above $330:

Have you wondered how I was able to determine the heads up and buy/sell points in this rally? Well, thanks to RGLD/GG and the use of proprietary measures in the duration period of the chart, the slow stochastic and Williams %R, I have when these leading (action-wise) gold shares entered an oversold condition, began to look for the buy and overbought for the sell. Now as gold approaches $330, if the gold shares (which historically know more about gold than gold does) are not into the overbought condition that have been so accurate, we will assume $330 is going to breach and NOT SELL our 1/3.

This means we are remaining disciplined, but being superbly focused. I will, as we near this situation, be doing daily technical reviews. I consider the market at this time more critically positive than ever before in this 11-month rally. The magnificently symmetric, three-year golden tea cup formation* would break to the upside out of the handle at a close above $330. This type of a formation, over this amount of time, is extremely rare and super bullish. I have in my 43 years never seen a technical formation of this kind for this long a duration with this type of symmetry. It is rare and important. This type of a formation will launch only one thing, a huge Bull market, if resolved to the upside. The probability of failure after gold breaks to the upside above $330 from this type of a formation is less than 10%. Those odds are outrageously good for the long.

We know the bull market in gold started 11 months ago, but history will record the breakout above the handle on the golden tea cup as "The Birth of the Gold Bull Market." This will occur because the amount of appreciation above the handle will be orders of magnitude compared to the 11-month appreciation we have already witnessed. Be assured that I am focused and will be keeping the Gold community as closely focused.

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Fifteeth Annual
San Francisco Precious Metals Conference
December 1-2, 2002
The San Francisco Marriott, 55 and 4th Street

Focusing on value investments and wealth preservation with the global leaders in gold, precious metals and mining.



http://www.iiconf.com/SanFrancisco/

[peter.wedemeier1]

Top of The Pops
Strongest Gold Stocks
Clive Maund
4 December, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund120402_goldstoc…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"The Indian press is reporting that Indian exports of gold jewellery in 2002 were 32.88% higher in dollar terms than in 2001. This suggests an increase in market share globally, as dollar prices were up on average by only 14% and a discrepancy of this size cannot solely be accounted for by selling into periods of price strength."

http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Dgmc/index.php?issue=17010…

[peter.wedemeier1]

$840 gold by June or by year-end
We believe there are three possible reasons that the US Government may return to a gold exchange standard. We believe the elitists were the shadow purchasers of the gold sold by central banks at their direction, the Malaysian Gold Dinar, which will be actively trading by June and an Islamic Arab Dinar to follow. This will force western governments to again back their currencies with gold. We also believe the euro to be a mitigating factor with its 15% gold backing. As gold prices rise so will the value of the gold backing the euro, thus the percentage of gold backing will rise. There is no question that Islamic countries are putting financial pressure on the US, UK and Germany. The Muslims believe they can destroy capitalism by forcing gold to the forefront and we agree that this could and probably will be successful. We then also have other mitigating events such as new gold exchanges in Dakar and China as well as rampant anti-American sentiment forcing the gold backing issue. Now we can better understand Sir Alan GreenspanÕs comments regarding Òmonetary policy, unleashed from the constraint of domestic gold convertibility, has allowed a persistent over issuance of money.Ó He realizes that the US will have to return to a gold exchange standard to compete with other currencies.
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=16004732…

[peter.wedemeier1]

War and the Markets

Steve Saville

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/milhouse012203pv.htm…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Certainly, it is correct to sell 1/3 of your gold share position using
strict Technical Analysis for price objectives. My position speaking to the
entire gold community and not to a private clientele is that those two
points now will be the broader $373 and the final point of the first wave
of a 5-wave bull market in gold which will be over $400. In no way have I
have moved away from the sell 1/3 program, but only adjusted to what I feel
the community can handle efficiently. What others do with a private
clientele is of course personally communicated, more active and preemptive.

The most popular interpretation of the Elliott Wave is, IMO, wrong both on
its Elliott Wave count as well as the interpolation to the economic
phenomena as a duplication of the 1930 events. It is wrong, IMO, in its
prediction of the gold price and economic performance.

In conclusion:

Financial policymakers have a different attitude (aggressive) and tools
(namely cranking M3) than they did in the 1930s to fight this present
unique type of price decline in the price of manufactured goods which is
not a classic deflation

- These new tools spell fundamental support for a major bull market in
Gold.

- The bull market in gold is just beginning.

- The US dollar is the one major leader that will determine the direction
of gold.

- Therefore the recent opinions offered by respected, well intentioned and
well known advisors concerning the advent of a new depression may well
misguide the gold investor into a liquidation at an inappropriate time and
price.

===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 TAN RANGE EXPLORATION CORPORATION (TSXV-TNX) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.tanrange.com/ or send mailto:[e-mail]
Message sent on Mon Jan 20, 2003 at 11:53:47 AM Pacific Time

[peter.wedemeier1]

Re: Chairman`s Corner - Monday, January 20, 2003
That Sinking Feeling: Deflation in Goods and The Dollar
Author: By James Sinclair, Chairman & CEO Tan Range Exploration
===========================================================================
A rebuttal to "Gold & Gold Shares," opinions issued this weekend, January
19, 2003, by my respected colleagues Andrew Smith and Robert Prechter
separately and for various reasons reviewed.



Many economic commentators agree that we are at a major turning point. I
agree with that. However, I argue that most analysis of where the economy
is headed is wrong because of a fundamental misunderstanding about two
crucial things: deflation and the dollar. This has implications not only on
the US economy and whether we are headed for another Depression, but also
the price of gold and the direction of equities markets.

On Thursday January 16th the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the
CPI (the consumer price index, the government`s most widely used measure of
inflation) declined 0.2%. The dollar fell on the day. This new number
started a widespread discussion about deflation and its impact on the US
economy. Many commentators leapt on this new data to cry that the major
threat to the economy had just shifted from inflation to deflation. Some
(notably adherents of Robert Prechter) warned of a 1930s-style collapse of
the economy into Depression.

However, an article in the 1/17/03 Wall Street Journal moved beyond simply
the headline number, and stressed an important and growing split between
the two dominant sectors of the economy: goods and services. Prices for
services rose 3.2% in December of 2002, from the previous year, pushed up
primarily by rising medical care costs but also increased by tuition,
homeowners` insurance, and rising charges for routine services.

But prices for manufacturing goods, excluding the volatile food and energy
sectors, were down 1.5% in December 2002 from the previous year, compared
to a year-over-year drop in November of 1.6%. It was the largest decline in
such prices on record since 1958. Last year`s drop included lower prices on
everything from cars to computers to clothing for toddlers.

Will this send us into a 1930s type depression? I think not. Three
important elements bear highlighting:

1. The divergent trend of prices for goods versus services has been in
place for a considerable period of time. This event is not a new
development.

2. The order of causal events is quite different from the 1930s.

3. The financial policymakers are ready and willing to act to prevent
another 1930s-style collapse and can do so, with ramifications.

It is worth clearing up a few misconceptions. Deflation, to be the new kid
on the block must be defined as the following: a contraction in the volume
of available credit or money (the monetary aggregate or M3) that causes a
decline of general prices. That is the proper definition of what a
deflationary depression is all about. So it is not just a decline in prices
as is popularly understood. This helps to clarify the events that led to
the Great Depression. In 1929, the stock market crash led to the rapid and
broad-based collapse of financial institutions (particularly commercial
banks), which in turn caused a sharp contraction of monetary aggregates.
This series of events contracted the supply of money and credit resulting
in the contraction of prices of goods and services.

Another often unnoticed aspect of the Depression is that the existence of
the Gold Certificate Ratio. This Gold Cover Clause limited the reaction of
the authorities. This tied the use of monetary aggregates. The old style
Gold Cover Clause mandated restrictive policy via increased interest rates
rather than expansionary when the aggregate value exceeded the value of
gold by 55%. Stated in other terms, the value of the gold held represented
by gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve had to equal 45% of the
total value of the monetary aggregate. Simply stated the Central Bank in
1930 was required to contract rather than expand the monetary aggregate. In
the 1930s, this restriction was in place as the commercial banking system
collapsed. The spiral then in place tightened the noose of monetary policy
just when it should have been totally accommodative. Today, as Governor
Bernanke states, there is nothing to prevent the Federal Reserve from
creating money at will. I will add yes, that is correct, with
ramifications.

The major difference this time around is that the Federal Reserve is
willing to sacrifice the dollar to save the economy. Credit has been
expanded significantly (consider the real estate market and personal credit
card debt) and interest rates are low. This leads financial policymakers to
crank the presses and expand monetary aggregates (M3). Generally, central
bankers want to crank the presses as much as a farmer wants to burn his
barn full of this year`s harvest. But that is what they (and Treasury
officials) are going to do: they are going to burn the barn"they are going
to let the dollar fall.

As evidence, consider two key recent speeches. On December 19, 2002 Federal
Reserve Chairman Greenspan made a speech before the Economist Society in
Washington to assure business that we will not see a repeat of the 1930 to
1934 "Deflationary Experience," which was a textbook event. Those
conditions are simply not what is out there now. Chairman Greenspan and
Federal Reserve Governor Bernanke assured the listeners that they had the
tools to inflate the prices and if they had to, they would use those tools
to reverse the move of the price of manufactured goods from the negative
category. Monetary aggregates, or as Governor Bernanke put it, the
"electronic money Printing Machine" has no restraints. Read it and see that
what I am saying is absolutely correct.

Bernanke is correct. There are no restraints now to the expansion of
aggregates. There is however one thing that will reflect it. That is the
value of the US dollar. Chairman Greenspan, in his December 19, 2002,
speech told us that there is a rescue mechanism for the US dollar when it
needs to be utilized. That device is GOLD. Here and now, I want to go on
record telling you that Gold is coming back into the US Dollar within five
years. Its form of remonetization will be a modernized and revitalized Gold
Cover Clause not tied to interest rates, as it was as in 1929 - 1930 as the
Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, but tied to the ability to expand
M3 directly.

In 1930, it was the contraction, not the expansion of monetary aggregates
that was the mechanism that reduced the prices on services as well as
goods. That is a huge difference from today. That difference will create
significant different market implications not understood so far as I see by
the commentaries of my respected colleagues, Mr. Smith and Mr. Prechter.
The 1930 experience is not out there now and probably will not be out there
at all! Economically, what exists now that will impact markets is a unique
event of significant differences not generally understood by the analytical
group. The new gold community is literally terrified due to lack of
understanding and their respect for these two respected honorable gentlemen
who are bearish based I believe on incorrect interpretation of the
economic/market causal factors now and in the 1930s. The gold share
community therefore is motivated to sell, at the market, whenever they see
their own shadows. The definition of their own shadow is their worst fear
or classic deflation that simply does not and will not exist this time
around.

What is the future of the price of gold?

The answer hinges on the dollar. If the dollar declines, gold will rise.
The inverse is also true, but I believe that there is no case now for
dollar strength other than short-term rallies from oversold conditions
natural to all markets.

As we know, the value of a real estate investment is determined by
location, location, and location. The US dollar, the US dollar and the US
dollar will now determine gold`s value as indicated by the USDX (The US
Dollar Index). As the USDX declines, gold will rise.

This editorial, IMO, offers significant recorded historical fundamental
evidence with clear definition of the condition, deflation, to respectfully
rebut those who claim (such as my honorable and respected colleagues Robert
Prechter and the Elliott Wave technical analysts and Andrew Smith in his
$310 to $385 prognosis) that we are headed into a Deflationary Depression
and taking the price of gold down. Gold in fact recently touched $360, a
significant level. Gold has gained its price level not because of any
public participation. Buying gold shares does nothing for gold bullion
price. Buying gold coins does nothing for gold bullion`s price. Trading in
paper gold futures does nothing for gold bullion`s price. Trading in gold
options does nothing for gold`s price. Instead, those who are responsible
for the recent, and probably future, of the price of gold price are the
Asian and Islamic buyers. Their trading desk managers understand technical
analysis so it is no surprise that these technical levels are being hit,
reacted from and proceed to the next, one after another.

Thus the dichotomy between the strong gold price and the recently weaker
gold shares can thus be easily explained: because almost the entirety of
the public participation is focused on gold shares and the professional
(Asian and Islamic) buyers are focused in cash gold bullion itself. Gold
shares are likely to rally as individual investors see the fundamental
support built in to the price rise cash bullion. It is not as if one cannot
feed into the other but, in my opinion, the following is certain:

- Gold will not go significantly lower for any significant amount of time
from here!

- Gold will trade over $400 in 2003

- The US Dollar is your measure of what gold will do now and into the
foreseeable future until we maximize this entire major bull market!

Certainly, it is correct to sell 1/3 of your gold share position using
strict Technical Analysis for price objectives. My position speaking to the
entire gold community and not to a private clientele is that those two
points now will be the broader $373 and the final point of the first wave
of a 5-wave bull market in gold which will be over $400. In no way have I
have moved away from the sell 1/3 program, but only adjusted to what I feel
the community can handle efficiently. What others do with a private
clientele is of course personally communicated, more active and preemptive.

The most popular interpretation of the Elliott Wave is, IMO, wrong both on
its Elliott Wave count as well as the interpolation to the economic
phenomena as a duplication of the 1930 events. It is wrong, IMO, in its
prediction of the gold price and economic performance.

In conclusion:

Financial policymakers have a different attitude (aggressive) and tools
(namely cranking M3) than they did in the 1930s to fight this present
unique type of price decline in the price of manufactured goods which is
not a classic deflation

- These new tools spell fundamental support for a major bull market in
Gold.

- The bull market in gold is just beginning.

- The US dollar is the one major leader that will determine the direction
of gold.

- Therefore the recent opinions offered by respected, well intentioned and
well known advisors concerning the advent of a new depression may well
misguide the gold investor into a liquidation at an inappropriate time and
price.

===========================================================================
Copyright (c) 2002 TAN RANGE EXPLORATION CORPORATION (TSXV-TNX) All rights
reserved. For more information visit our website at
http://www.tanrange.com/ or send mailto:[e-mail]
Message sent on Mon Jan 20, 2003 at 11:53:47 AM Pacific Time

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury, having heard the evidence, what say you? Is the defendant, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., guilty or not guilty of the crime of domestic terrorism?

DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING, A DOMESTIC TERRORIST?
1/20/2003 - Political - Article Ref: IV0301-1835
By: Ira Chernus
Iviews* -


http://iviews.com/Articles/articles.asp?ref=IV0301-1835

[peter.wedemeier1]

Producer Gold Hedging at 2692 tonnes
An excellent technical data summary!

“The international gold hedge book - the cumulative hedging activities of 98 gold producers, representing 65% of total gold production - continued to shrink during the third quarter of 2002,declining by 4.8 Moz (150 tonnes) to total 86.6 Moz (2,692t). Over the past 12 months (Sept to Sept) this total has fallen by 15.0 Moz (466t).”



http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/temp/vmQ32002.pdf




Combined with the Commercial COT reports Jan 14 of 351 tonnes, the identifiable net gold Short is 2692 + 351 = 3043 tonnes. Assuming additional hedge producer coverage in 4th qtr 2002, it is believable then that net identifiable global Short gold is approx 3000 tonnes for future discussions. If other information becomes identifiable then we will of course update.

The 3000 tonnes is a massive Short position, especially now that new gold prod’n is expected at only 2260 tonnes for 2003 and with a 4% drop to be at 2170 tonnes for 2004. There are absolutely no stockpiles to draw from. In addition companies like GG are withholding about 10% of their prod’n as well as buying on the open market to convert dollars into gold for their treasury. In addition more of the PM shareholders are converting their received increased dividends into gold coins and bars. With all of this increase in investment gold, even as some jewelry demand drops off as reported by some centers, the total global gold demand is now +5000 tpy. Up to recently, new gold + recycled gold + CB sales + Commercial Shorting has covered the demand, but for each month the shortage of supply vs demand has widened hence the POG rise. The delta difference is now reaching Herculean proportions as the monthly shortages add up. I repeat as I have said before, the day is fast approaching when we begin to see daily +$10 jumps in the POG and from there it gets bigger and quicker.

Tech
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=16004732…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Blood line vs the Ballot box
Supposedly this Genealogy society of Britain called Burke`s Peerage http://www.burkes-peerage.net/sites/america/sitepages/page70… Peerage which started in 1826 has correctly identified each new president based on how much royal blood flowed through their veins,the canidate with the bluest blood the claim has always won.
L O N D O N, October 25, 2000
Political Blue Blood - Bush and Gore`s Bloodline Battle

Do presidential candidates Al Gore and George W. Bush have royal connections? Buckingham Palace politely declined to comment.

When it comes to picking the winner in the American presidential race, Britain`s leading chroniclers of royal ancestors say they`ve never been wrong - not once in almost 200 years. Based on facts gleaned from the old scrolls and dusty archives of Burke`s Peerage - researchers of royal bloodlines since 1826 - the Brits wager it will be Texas Gov. George W. Bush. "The presidential candidate with the most royal genes and chromosomes has, up to now, always won the White House," say the researchers at Burke`s Peerage. They say Bush`s blue blood runs thicker than Vice President Al Gore`s. In fact it trumps the royal ties of every other President to date, including his father`s. It seems George W. has inherited his mother`s deep blue blood-line.

His Royal Highness, King Dubya

Burke`s publishing director, Harold Brooks-Baker says Bush`s royal connections are startling. "[Bush] is closely related to every European Monarch both on and off the throne," says Brooks-Baker. Some of the governor`s royal kin include Britain`s Queen Elizabeth II, the Queen Mother, Duchess Sarah "Fergy" Ferguson and even the late Princess Diana. His most prominent ancestor may be England`s King Charles II, who shared the governor`s vision of a strong military. Going back nearly 1000 years, Brooks-Baker points out both the Bush and Pierce families [Barbara Bush`s maiden name is Pierce] were high society. "Not one member of his family was working class, middle class, or even middle, middle class," he notes.
Al`s Family Hardly Peasants

Gore`s family members weren`t exactly peasants. The vice president`s family tree includes Charlemagne and three Holy Roman emperors. And a good fight wouldn`t frighten the vice president`s most famous ancestor, England`s Edward I - best known today as the king who defeated, then executed Braveheart. Edward was also said to be very popular with the ladies. His descendent, Al Gore certainly won the hearts of many American ladies with "that kiss" he publicly planted on wife Tipper. Although Gore is running a bit behind Bush in the European royal count, his blood-line runs close to some American home-grown nobility, including Thomas Jefferson, Daniel Boone, and "Buffalo Bill" Cody.

Trump Card

Buckingham Palace politely declined to comment on the recorded royal connections of either candidate. "This sort of thing happens every time there`s an American Presidential Election," scoffed one palace official. But if the Burke`s Peerage prediction has its doubters, the company doesn`t hesitate to defend its crowning legacy. "You can`t just write off 200 years of accurate predictions," says Brooks-Baker pointing out Mike Dukakis learned about the "royal factor" the hard way. The 1988 Democratic nominee and son of Greek immigrants had no connections to any European thrones, and he lost in a landslide.

October Surprise?

Although Bush maintains a clear royal advantage, Burke`s Peerage claims to know why the race is so close. "Never in the history of the United States have two presidential candidates been as well endowed with royal alliances." However the royal researchers are hedging their bets saying their dig through the documents continues. Brooks-Baker says Gore still has a chance to prove he`s "royal enough" for the top job. "Like Jimmy Carter, it is possible that he is the product of several royal love children of the past," Brooks-Baker says. "Those connections are harder to trace." Thus Burke`s Peerage leaves open the possibility for an October surprise - and either a Bush, or a Gore, coronation Nov. 7.

If They Were Alive Today

Bush`s most famous relative, England`s King Charles II built a strong military, but at record spending levels. His health care plan proved to be a disaster during his reign - as 70,000 perished from the plague in London alone. If Charles were alive today, he might have been useful to Bush with his strong Catholic ties, and a proven victory in New York. (Charles walloped what was then the Dutch colony "New Amsterdam.") Gore`s most famous relative fought back considerable uprisings from Scotland`s William Wallace and the Welsh. But England`s King Edward also faced public scrutiny for his (military) campaign fundraising. Though generally regarded as a successful lawmaker and administrator, record tax increases he imposed to fight Scotland and Wales made the king highly unpopular with his key
constituents.
MY opinion is that Bluer bloodlines can also invovle networking to deeper pockets of support.

[peter.wedemeier1]

To American Youth on the Eve of War
by Kevin Alfred Strom
http://www.natall.com/internet-radio/ts/011103.ram#_ISRAEL_I…

Kevin Strom gives a fascinating and very well documented speech about how a war with Iraq would not benefit America. He also points out how the Jewish advisors pushing for this war are trying to stay in the background. In they didn`t, their policies favoring Israel over the United States might become obvious. Mr. Strom says that in the upcoming war on Iraq we are being manipulated into becoming cannon fodder for Israel in the most sickening display of hypocritical, moralizing cant that he has ever witnessed in his life --

269 Jewish Vietnam War Casualties Total (Bless Em) --
http://members.aol.com/WarLibrary/vwc7.htm#33

[peter.wedemeier1]

Low inflation?
Only if you`re an economist
By Greg McBride, Bankrate.com
Last Update: 12:02 AM ET Jan. 20, 2003







NORTH PALM BEACH, Fla. (Bankrate.com) -- The second consecutive monthly decline in the core Producer Price Index has spurred more concern about the potential onset of deflation.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7BA9664…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"Jim answers:

1. For those mines able, leverage is increased as the price of gold rises by shifting operational focus towards different grades in the mining operation.

2. Only the royalty gold shares are valued according to cash flow. Other gold shares are valued according to ounces in the ground times an assumed price per ounce. I do not believe in this system, but it exists. As the gold price rises, so will the reserves as mineable deposits become economic at the higher price. As reserves rise and the value per ounces rises, so does the theoretical share valuations.

3. Who was speaking about South African gold shares alone? I disagree with the writer who might be much too close to that forest to see those trees. This is a generational shift in gold whereby gold reenters the world monetary system. Maybe the writer should read up on the Malaysian Dinar due in June of 2003? The Arab Dinar lead time for redefinition is now cut by five years and of course Chairman Greenspan`s comments of December 19, 2002 are key.

4. The writer says I am wrong again. Would the writer please inform me of the past error on gold so I might learn from this error?"


hhhttp://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/general/2003/j…

[peter.wedemeier1]

When Gold Closes Above $371.50
$400 Will Promptly Be Taken Out On The Upside

First Two Weeks of February Have Super Bullish Potential Implications
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields says eight missing in Driefontein fire
Thu January 30, 2003 09:13 AM ET
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 30 (Reuters) -

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyI…

[peter.wedemeier1]

The new bull market in gold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: January 30, 2003
1:00 a.m. Eastern


© 2003 WorldNetDaily.com

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=307…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Reuters
Five miners die in S.Africa gold mine fire
Thursday January 30, 7:55 pm ET
By Darren Schuettler


JOHANNESBURG, Jan 31 (Reuters) -

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030130/safrica_mine_fire_4.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold to stay high – Gold Fields CE
Posted Thu, 30 Jan 2003
The chief executive of Gold Fields said on Thursday he sees gold continuing on a rising trend, although about $20 to $30 lower than the current price if there is a war in Iraq.
Gold, hovering at six-year highs, rose 25 percent last year, and is up some seven percent so far this year on global political uncertainty. Much of the rise has been in the last two months as tensions between the United States and Iraq increase.
Spot gold was quoted at $363.00/3.75 an ounce on Thursday, down from New York`s last quoted $366.25/5.15.
On Monday it touched $372.60 an ounce, its highest since December 22 1996, after chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix sharply criticised Iraq for not divulging enough information about its arms programme.

"Once hostilities break out, which I think is likely to happen, the gold price will come back some more, maybe $20 to $30," Gold Fields CE Ian Cockerill told Reuters.
"But I don`t see the price where it is solely because of the war. I see it much more fundamentally driven by huge global uncertainty in financial markets. Iraq is a sideshow."
He said his outlook for gold was based on factors including a declining U.S. dollar and a slipping U.S. index Standard & Poor`s 500.

"So let’s get the Iraq thing over and done with, and then we`ll see a pull-back (in gold), but I do see it then going onwards and upwards. There is no other alternative... gold is in a rising trend line," he said.
The company`s bullish view of bullion had fired its plans for growth and exploration.
"We believe that the higher gold price is with us to stay for some time, and we have decided to crank up exploration in several parts of the world," he said. "We hope that over the next few quarters we will be able to make some announcements."
Gold Fields is one of the top five world gold miners, with an annual attributable gold production of some four million ounces.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Four Ways to Play New Gold Rush

By Jon D. Markman
Managing Editor, MSN MoneyCentral
01/30/2003 11:45 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/supermodels/10065631.h…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Start A Liberty Dollar Redemption Center!

http://www.libertydollar.org/RC/RC_About.asp

[peter.wedemeier1]

U.S. economic growth slows

Fourth quarter GDP expanded by 0.7 percent

By Martin Wolk
MSNBC

Jan. 30 —
http://www.msnbc.com/news/866321.asp?0na=x2301213-&cp1=1

[peter.wedemeier1]

“Operating cash flow for the quarter was R1,340 million (US$137 million), an increase of R344 million when compared to operating cash flow in the September quarter of R996 million (US$95 million), contributing to a strong balance sheet with a cash balance at the end of December 2002 of R1,926 million (US$217 million) as compared to R1,439 million (US$136 million) at the end of September. Cash net of both long and short-term debt at the end of the quarter was a positive R504 million (US$57 million) compared to a negative R494 million (US$47 million) last quarter.”


Operating cash flow US$ 137 mil = $0.29 per sh
Cash Net Change = US$57 – (-US$47) = US$104 mil = $0.22 per sh

The US$0.18 per sh is for accounting tax purposes. The real growth indication is the operating cash flow of $0.29 per share before exploration activities etc for future growth. When it is all done and said the bottom line taking into account the currency investments and strengthened Rand and AUD is that the Cash net change goes from negative $47mil to positive $57 mil an increase of $104 mil which is +$0.22 per share. A super Qtr!
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=16004732…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Reuters
UPDATE - Aussie dollar,mine sale up Gold Fields earnings
Thursday January 30, 9:30 am ET
By Sue Thomas


(Releads with CEO interview, analyst comment, shares)
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 30 (Reuters) -
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030130/minerals_safrica_goldfields_3…

[peter.wedemeier1]

January 29, 2003. Gold: Cover or Cover-up?

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary23.html#anchor77962

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

NEWMONT: MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS


http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/headsup/2003/0…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Dear Sir:

Your comments on our U.S. share price performance have been directed to me
for comment.

I am sorry that you are disappointed with our performance. From July until
late December, we were under registration with the SEC and unable to market
our stock in our customary manner. It would have been illegal to do so. If
it appears that we went underground, it is because, well, we did!

We pulled the registration about six weeks ago, and will resume our normal
pattern of conferences, road shows and marketing. I must emphasize that we
don`t issue press releases unless there is something to announce that is
material. When you have reserves of 80 million ounces, you disclose this
once a year in the A/R, as we did, and don`t update with a press release
unless something material occurs. We issue our quarterly results, as
normal, and have not had anything material to announce in the past six
months outside of the normal course of business.

Sorry that you feel we are not doing our jobs. We`ll try to do better in
the future. And, in looking at the performance of all of the gold stocks
today, Gold Fields is leading the pack. Perhaps this is an indicator of
future performance.

Thank you for your comments.

Sincerely,

Cheryl A. Martin
Vice President - North American Investor Relations
Gold Fields Limited
303-796-8683
Fax: [phone]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Fields pulls plans for U.S. IPO
2/3/2003 1:31:09 PM










WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters)

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp…

[peter.wedemeier1]

JPM CAN NOT COVER COVER GOLD SHORT
TURK:

JPM’s gold derivative exposure of $41 billion of notional value represents 117 million ounces of gold – a number that is nearly 50% greater than all the gold produced worldwide in a year. Thus, it seems likely that the gold market may not be able to provide the liquidity JPM will need to keep its gold derivative position in balance in a period of increased gold price volatility, which is a result that would clearly negate Mr. Harrison’s contention that JPM does not have "any real exposure to gold."

[peter.wedemeier1]

From Chris Curran/Trade winds,

"Another critical area to keep tabs on is the cash levels at mutual funds. As reported in Barron`s last week, the average cash level at mutual funds in the U.S. stands at 4.2%, the lowest level ever recorded. Historically, low cash levels have been a good contrarian indicator of market tops, while high cash levels (in the 10-13% range) have been present with market bottoms. The logic behind this is simple. If funds are already invested, there is not much capital available to put to work to enable stocks to work higher. On the contrary, if mutual funds have a lot of cash at hand, the necessary fuel is available to drive the markets higher. There is also an air of desperation for many fund managers, whose jobs are on the line after 3 losing years. Furthermore, when cash levels are low, it leaves funds in a very vulnerable position of being forced to sell positions to meet any increase in redemptions. And when funds are forced to sell with little regards to price, it creates a sharp selling environment. So, regardless of how the Iraq situation turns out, it will not magically increase cash levels at mutual funds, and any rally in the near-term will still be of the bear market variety."

[peter.wedemeier1]

Time to bring in the TA heavyweights
(from John Murphy/stockcharts.com)

"WHY THIS WON`T BE A REPLAY OF 1990... A lot of comparisons are being between the expected war with Iraq and the events surrounding the Persian Gulf War during 1990 and 1991. We`ve made them ourselves. We don`t, however, agree with the conclusion that the gold rally will end (and a new bull market in stocks will start) once the war starts. During 1990, gold was in a secular bear market -- while stocks were in a secular bull market (see 1990 boxes). The gold bounce leading up to the war was just a bear market rally. The bull market in stocks resumed once the war started in early 1991. This time, gold has entered a secular bull market -- while stocks are now in a secular bear market . We do believe that a resolution of the Iraq situation while likely lead to a pullback in gold (maybe even a sharp one) and a good rally in stocks. We don`t, however, agree that major trends will be reversed. In fact, we believe that a sharp correction in gold would probably represent another good buying opportunity. We think current trends in all four markets (the dollar, gold, bonds, and stocks) could be interrupted -- but not reversed. That`s why we think some of the comparisons of the current war to the last one are flawed."

The following links are from my chart study.
Last week I mentioned that last pull back looked like a Bear Trap, it seems to be so.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=17… AY[N]&disp=e

[peter.wedemeier1]

QUARTER ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2002
- Unaudited -


HIGHLIGHTS




Strong improvement in safety performance
Good cost control continues
Net earnings up 51 per cent to R817 million (US$83 million)
Attributable gold production of 1.09 million ounces.
Operating profit of R1.32 billion achieved, down from the previous quarter due to a stronger
Rand and planned lower production at Tarkwa and St Ives.
http://www.goldfields.co.za/Investor/Quarterly_Reports/FY_20…

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Reuters
Report: Job Cut Announcements Jump
Tuesday February 4, 10:24 am ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) -

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030204/economy_challenger_2.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Precious Metals - The Big Squeeze

By Jim Puplava
Jan 28 2003

www.financialsense.com



The gold camp is divided into several investor classes. There are mainly four categories when it comes to investing in gold. They are as follows:

1.True Believers
2.Nonbelievers, Hedgers & Short-Sellers
3.Momentum Traders
4.Clueless John Q`s

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/jan282003.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

>S. African govt calms nerves

By: David McKay


Posted: 2003/02/03 Mon 19:55 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003


JOHANNESBURG –
http://www.mips1.net/MGFin.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D37A42256…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Bill Fleckenstein`s RealMoney article from yesterday:

..."Again today, while gold was higher, gold stocks really weren`t able to do much. I know that it has been a source of consternation among many that as gold continues to go up, gold stocks are left behind. If I had to hazard a guess, it might be that the enormous move for gold stocks of the last year (vis-a-vis the percentage gain in gold) is now being digested. Also, it`s worth remembering that gold stocks are stocks, and gold bullion is bullion, so they don`t have to track exactly the same. Over time, however, I would expect that the bull market in gold will take gold shares much higher, though that may not resolve itself until after the war begins..."

[peter.wedemeier1]

Bonds fall, dollar rebounds

Treasury prices weaken on Powell`s speech, government`s plan for new debt; dollar up against euro.
February 5, 2003: 4:33 PM EST



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Bond prices stayed in the minus column in late trading Wednesday while stocks tried to figure out whether Colin Powell`s speech at the United Nations had boosted the odds of a U.S.-led military strike against Iraq.


http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/05/markets/bondcenter/bonds/ind…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"It will be debt that leads us into depression. It is only a matter of time with a fuse that is running short. The authorities know it, and foreigners know it, so it becomes a question of whether the economic contraction in the economy, the fall of the dollar, and the decline of equities will be orderly or culminate in a crash. That is the real issue at hand and the one reason why there is a slow and subtle movement into hard assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities. There are too many dollars in the system and not enough alternatives to replace it."

They’re Not Coming Back

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

By James Sinclair, Chairman

It was crystal clear that the rally in the dollar during the Powell presentation at the UN was artificially induced by the Exchange Stabilization Fund, as was the intra-US-night top in the gold market at $390.

Have you ever wondered what would happen if the Community just said "NO?" If you stared down this ESF intervention manipulative nonsense as I do and, in fact, sold them their last US dollar, or took both sides of their gold play today to your advantage. I have.

Why are you allowing yourselves to be toyed with by such obvious ESF intervention moves? Powell almost convinced Saddam Hussein to invade himself as his presentation was so clear and he is respected as the dove amongst hawks. It even took the talking heads a few minutes to figure out how to explain a stock market rally and dollar rally. They announced the stock market and dollar rally as the product of Powell`s presentation to the UN because it "took away uncertainty." Now that has to get the award for spin city speak because in English it means; "Now we are certain the US is going to Iraq, therefore, it is fine to buy equities and the dollar." Huh?

I have pointed out to you what they look like when they play and how to play them. Gold is going over $400 and looking back from the other side. Until gold is over $400, it is my opinion that using TA and buying the dips is as safe as gold can ever be. Selling any rise over $10 in one day is simply good sense.

Conclusion: Gold is going over $400 on this leg of the long-term gold bull market.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Market Still Headed Lower

By Dave Skarica
Feb 5 2003

www.addictedtoprofits.com





Dear Subscriber,

On January 23rd, we wrote an article entitled "Out of Time" which stated the market was running out of time and should soon break to the downside. On the next day of trading, January 24th, the Dow Jones Industrial

Average did as we predicted. It closed down over 230 points and broke below its key support level of 8,250. Since that time, the Dow has found short-term support in the 7,900 range. We are of the opinion that this break below 8,250 is very important. The Dow has been pushed below the bottom of it`s short term trading range and such downside breaks are usually fierce. We are now expecting the market to soon trade back to its fall lows (7400 range), if not lower.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Skarica/feb052003.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Let`s Get Physical

By Jim Puplava
Feb 5 2003

www.financialsense.com


http://kitco.com/ind/Puplava/feb052003.html

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[peter.wedemeier1]

The lagging gold shares 2003-02-03
http://www.sagolds.com/feed/index.php/item/view/article/136

[peter.wedemeier1]

Excerpt - copied from financial sense online:

"Stocks retreated in advance of tomorrow’s presentation to the UN by Secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell is expected to lay the case for war due to Iraqi violations of UN covenants agreed upon by Iraq. The major averages lost ground today with all three indexes in negative territory for the year. We have just experienced the worst December and January in many decades -- a time when the major indexes fell back-to-back in normally what is considered the two strongest months of the year for the stock averages. Both December and January have been negative and that`s something we haven’t seen in a long time. Year-to-date the Dow has lost close to 4%, the S&P 500 3.6%, and the NASDAQ is down 2.2%. This makes for four years of negative returns. And unlike previous downturns, the little investor isn’t coming back into the market. Volume on the major exchanges has been falling since last summer. The brief trading rallies we have experienced last summer and fall were the product of intervention and interplay between the hedge fund community and fund managers playing the momentum game. Nobody is holding on to positions anymore. They just trade them in a game of chance and musical chairs hoping they land on something to earn a return."

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Employment Situation Summary
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

THE GAMBLER
http://www.angelfire.com/co2/inspiration/gambler.html

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[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Treasury Issues Warning On Debt
Congress Asked To Raise Ceiling

By John M. Berry
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 6, 2003; Page E01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31739-2003Feb…

[peter.wedemeier1]

A Nation of Stoned-Out Zombies
"...It not as if the signs were not there to see. "Leading indicators decline," but the market goes up! "Consumer confidence at nine-year low," but the market goes up! "Bankruptcies at multi-year highs, and climbing," but the market goes up! "Dollar loses 20% of it`s value in one year," but the market goes up! "Every state in nation cutting spending and/or raising taxes," but the market goes up! "New federal budget deficit rises to $300 billion," but the market goes up! "Bernanke says Fed ready to print as much money as needed," but the market goes up! "Trade and current account deficits set new records," but the market goes up! See what I mean? Stoooooonnnnnned, maaaannnn..."

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

PHOENIX (Reuters) - U.S. consumers, saddled with huge debt loads, are poised to face even tougher times with more layoffs, rising oil prices and a looming U.S. war with Iraq, credit rating and asset-backed securities analysts said this week.

If consumers -- whose spending accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- falter, it spells problems not only for the economy, but also for returns on asset-backed securities, or bonds backed by consumer loans like credit cards, car loans and home equity loans, analysts said.

"The outlook for consumers is not good. They face significant challenges," said Mike Dean, senior director at Fitch Ratings, on Thursday.

Late loan payments and defaults have been climbing. Personal bankruptcy filings are expected to surpass last year`s record.

"Our outlook (for consumer credit) is absolutely bleak," said Jeff Salmon, head of asset-backed securities research at Barclays Capital.

Dean and Salmon were speaking in Phoenix in panels at an asset-backed securities conference sponsored by the Information Management Network.

Real estate wealth from rising home prices and cash from mortgage refinancings have cushioned consumers from a generally weak job market and a protracted stock slump. Analysts warned, however, that these positive factors will likely fade by the end of the year.

With interest rates at their lowest in 40 years, some consumers have consolidated their loans at lower rates, shaving interest payments.

But many consumers, enticed by the rock-bottom rates, have taken on more debt instead.

With the United States massing its military might ahead of a possible strike against crude-rich Iraq, oil prices have been high this year, eating into consumers` disposable incomes. Uncertainty over the possible war has also sapped consumer confidence just as it has clouded stock markets` outlooks.

"Today`s consumer debt burden is higher than any point. This is troubling," said Michael Kanef, managing director at Moody`s Investors Service.

Americans are clearly struggling to make their debt obligations, particularly monthly credit card bills.

In December, credit card companies wrote off 7.5 percent of credit card receivables that they bundled into asset-backed bonds, said Amy Martin, director at Standard & Poor`s. That charge-off level is the second highest ever tracked by S&P.

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

California Bank Closed by FDIC; Customers Have More Than $30 Million at Risk
The Associated Press
Published: Feb 8, 2003




TORRANCE, Calif. (AP)

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAG1XLUXBD.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Juvenile detention facilities will close

The state will shut down four centers due to budget cuts.

The Associated Press
February 8, 2003

PRINEVILLE

http://news.statesmanjournal.com/article.cfm?i=56326

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[peter.wedemeier1]

China`s Forex Reserves Hit US$286.4 billion

http://service.china.org.cn/link/wcm/Show_Text?info_id=54493…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold Demand of China, India & the Arabs

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_98/vronsky113098.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Two Bills: Scandal and Opportunity in Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/howe020400.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

"The [Gold] entity starts the year with two strong aspects of (transition) and (order) signaling the movement from disorder toward order. This is a beginning. Aspects of (completion) with attributes of {before} and {stepping into} argue for an interpretation of the precious metals markets moving out from under their recent manipulations. As to the [Gold] entities development, there are several large areas associated geographically with weighted strength toward China, Bahrain, and South Africa. There are aspects indicating (caution) and (differentiation) modified by {success}. In the early part of the year, the precious metals and commodity markets will be in a period of transition moving from a period of excessive control toward free market equilibrium. A (new collective –as in action, perhaps indicating class action lawsuits) of {like minded companions} will lead the transition. The aspects of gold suggesting a large change are numerous. Many such as (freshly changed), (good fortune), (glorious) by {contrast}, (standing) over {ruins from fire –indicating maximum change-} and many others indicate significant changes in the precious metals market which will ripple through the entire economy.



Further aspects of (oppression) are tempered by attributes of {exhaustion}. Aspects associated include (adversity) and (restraint), and are also tempered or canceled by their attribute clusters. This is interpreted as the reverse of times of oppression. What was pressed down long will be lifted up and sustained.



Curiously (joy) shows up as an aspect of the [Gold] entity. This is rare as primary emotions are not usually able to pass through the input aggregation. This indicates a large level of emotional inputs and perhaps a very wide spread, and positive effect to be felt from the {exhaustion} of the (oppression) of the [Gold] entity.



One specific and anomalous aspect is (frustration) which is modified by {lack of information}, and {closed minded}. This frustration may not last much longer as the [Gold] entity moves forward and grows significantly in early February.



There are also significant values for aspect of (justice) and (timing) and (progress) associated with [Gold]. The (case) to be {decided} is {not easy} and yet is {perfectly clear}. The model is clearly indicating that the case of the oppression against gold will break this year. Those prosecuting the case will persevere in spite of clear indications of danger. Though inclined {toward leniency}, the case must be allowed to progress to its logical conclusion. Indications are that a crack-up with rapidly unfold in which the lower rungs of the guilty attempt to sell out their fellow for lessor sentences. The modifiers for the (oppression) aspects include {poisonous}, and {dried or withered – of purpose-}. Further modifiers suggest {ineffectiveness} and {tired}.



The general interpretation for the precious metals markets symbolized by the [Gold] entity is for illumination as to the situation to reach some pivotal level early in the new year, the market will open up and not look back the rest of the year while (justice) trails along behind trying to clean up the mess."

http://urbansurvival.com/2003anl.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Head & Shoulder Foramtion. Ein perfekter Chart zum Shorten!

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland

Scenario #3
February 7, 2003
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

[peter.wedemeier1]

Higher prices won’t damp gold demand, says jeweler


By Adarsh Madhavan

MUSCAT

http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=25317&pn=b…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"The people who make the most money in a major bull market are the ones who don`t pay much attention to the daily, weekly, or even monthly price fluctuations."

Why people fail to make money in bull markets

Steve Saville
6 February, 2003

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville020603.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Return to an old standard?

Faisal Islam
Sunday February 9, 2003
The Observer
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,891682,00.ht…

[peter.wedemeier1]

[peter.wedemeier1]

On Shaky Ground

David Chapman

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/chapmand021103.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH

Leading stock indexes near meltdown
Dollar`s drop, commodity rally start to sway investors

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:09 AM ET Feb. 10, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- After a 10th consecutive week of rising gold prices, and an almost simultaneous streak in the benchmark Commodity Research Bureau`s index of hard assets (XX:1864498: news, chart, profile), Main Street is beginning to lose its appetite for the stock market`s paper chase.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Among the cheapest gold miners, according to Doody`s valuation model, are African miners Randgold (RANGY: news, chart, profile), Ahanti Goldfields (ASL: news, chart, profile), Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI: news, chart, profile) and Harmony Gold (HMY: news, chart, profile). Canada`s Eldorado Gold (CA:ELD: news, chart, profile), Peru`s Buenaventura Mines (BVNOF: news, chart, profile) and Denver`s Golden Star Resources (GSS: news, chart, profile) are also dirt-cheap, Doody says.

Doody says his valuation model is a starting point for identifying undervalued mining shares. "This is a very simplistic approach, but it`s a method one can use to start evaluating the gold stocks." The gold analyst is sticking to his 2003 forecast of a $450 gold price.

HOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH
Gold stocks valued below spot price
Some producers trading as if metal is 10 percent lower
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:12 PM ET March 3, 2003



SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Not six months ago, gold miners were the stock market`s biggest money-maker. Now they`re the new whipping boys.

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/cbsmw/?p=GFI&ntlink=…

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 1.90% bei $11.28) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von GSS (+ 1.60% bei $1.91) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor VGZ (+ 1.22% bei $3.32).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 2.26% bei $11.32) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von VGZ zurück erobert.

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 1.13% bei $10.70) führt heute zu Handelsbeginn im US-Handel vor MDG (+ 1.00% bei $10.06).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 3.63% bei $11.14) führt zu Handelsbeginn im US-Handel vor DROOY (+ 2.51% bei $2.45) und GSS (+ 2.50% bei $2.05).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 5.86% bei $11.38) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von DROOY (+ 5.86% bei $2.53) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor HMY (+ 3.84% bei $12.97).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 5.67% bei $11.36) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von DROOY (+ 5.44% bei $2.52) zurück erobert. Beide führen nun vor HMY (+ 4.56% bei $13.06).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 2.65% bei $11.64) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von RGLD übernommen. GFI führt nun vor GSS (+ 2.54% bei $2.02) und RGLD (+ 2.42% bei $18.64).

Go Gold Go!

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 5.57% bei $11.95) führt im US-Handel vor RANGY
(+ 4.08% bei $14.54) und SWC (+ 4.06% bei $4.10).

Go Gold, Platin und Palladium Go!

[alterhaase]

949843

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 2.76% bei $12.28) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von SWC übernommen. GFI führt nun vor RIC (+ 2.71% bei $3.03). und PAAS (+ 2.58% bei $7.15).

Go Gold go GATA go GFI!

[BrokerSteve]

gold fields ist auch der Wert, der unterbewertet ist.

Der Wert müsste bei 13,50 Euro stehen. Das wird sich in Kürze auch dahingehend anpassen.

Klare Kaufchance !

[BrokerSteve]

Na, so langsam gehts nach oben 10,80 €.

KZ: 13,50 €

[bluemoons]

Südafrikanisches Minenhaus setzt weiter stark auf Gold – Auch andere Edelmetalle locken den Produzenten


Gold Fields mit neuem Selbstbewusstsein


Von WOLFGANG DRECHSLER


Wenn es noch eines Nachweises bedurft hätte, dass Gold wieder glänzt, wurde er letztes Jahr beim Debüt von Gold Fields an der New York Stock Exchange erbracht: Kein anderer als Nelson Mandela, der erste schwarze Staatspräsident Südafrikas, erschien auf dem Balkon der Börse, um die Notierung des weltweit viertgrößten Goldproduzenten einzuläuten.


KAPSTADT. Mit dem gelungenen Publicity-Gag konnte Gold Fields sogar seinen südafrikanischen Erzrivalen Anglogold ausstechen, der anlässlich seiner Zweitnotierung in New York kurz zuvor einen echten Löwen präsentiert hatte.

Gold Fields hat guten Grund, sich der Welt mit neuem Selbstbewusstsein zu präsentieren: In nur fünf Jahren hat das Unternehmen seinen Marktwert von 7 Mrd. auf 44 Mrd. Rand (4,8 Mrd. €) geschraubt. Vor dem jüngsten Rückschlag des Goldpreises hatte der Börsenwert zeitweise sogar bei fast 80 Mrd. Rand gelegen. Das Unternehmen war damit 2002 der erfolgreichste Titel an der Johannesburger Börse (JSE). Inzwischen macht Gold Fields rund ein Drittel des JSE-Goldindizes aus.

Zwei Gründe haben Gold Fields zu dem Höhenflug verholfen: zum einen die starke Erholung des Goldpreises, zum anderen die Tatsache, dass Gold Fields inzwischen fast kein Gold mehr zu einem festen Preis auf Termin (Hedging) verkauft. Damit profitierte die Gesellschaft ganz unmittelbar vom starken Anstieg des Goldpreises in den letzten beiden Jahren. Geholfen hat lange Zeit auch, dass die Kosten in der Heimatwährung Rand anfallen, während der Konzern die Erlöse in Dollar erhält. Allerdings hat sich dieser Bonus in den letzten Monaten ins Gegenteil verkehrt: Durch das starke Anziehen des Rands und die gleichzeitige Dollarschwäche sind die Gewinnspannen aller südafrikanischen Goldfirmen stark geschrumpft – und mit ihnen der Aktienkurs. Allmählich scheint sich das Pendel mit der leichten Abschwächung des Rands wieder in die andere Richtung zu bewegen.

Die Effizienz und Voraussicht Gold Fields zeigen die Zahlen für das letzte Quartal – es waren die besten aller südafrikanischen Goldförderer. Anglogold und Harmony meldeten Gewinnrückgänge um 43 % bzw. fast 50 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Bei Gold Fields lag der Verlust nur bei 1,5 %. Einen weiteren Coup landete das Unternehmen vor wenigen Tagen, als es 15 % seiner südafrikanischen Minen an die von Schwarzen geführte Investmentgesellschaft Mvelaphanda Resources (Mvela) verkaufte. Damit erfüllt Gold Fields mit einem Schlag einen Gutteil der Auflagen in der vom Staat erlassenen Bergbau-Charta: Danach müssen schwarze Südafrikaner in fünf Jahren zu 15 % an allen Minen des Landes beteiligt sein. Bis 2012 soll dieser Anteil dann auf 26 % steigen. Zuvor hatten Beobachter immer wieder das langsame Tempo moniert, das Gold Fields bei der Heranziehung schwarzer Partner angeschlagen hatte.

Die Frage ist nun, wie Gold Fields sein üppiges Cashpolster anlegen wird. Die Devisenkontrollen am Kap erschweren es, die Mittel für Zukäufe ins Ausland zu transferieren, wo der Konzern Minen in Australien und Ghana betreibt. Das Management um den neuen Chef Ian Cockerill will das Geld deshalb nach eigenen Angaben in die Minen am Kap stecken. Zurzeit ist Gold Fields, das jährlich 4,1 Mill. Unzen Gold fördert, auf dem besten Weg, den Schritt von einer südafrikanischen Goldfirma zum globalen Edelmetall-Produzenten zu vollziehen. Der Schwerpunkt dürfte dabei auch künftig auf Gold liegen, dessen Preis Cockerill weiter steigen sieht. Er ist davon überzeugt, dass Gold auf Dauer vom schwachen Dollar und niedrigen Zinsen profitieren wird, weil immer mehr Anleger nach alternativen Anlagen suchen.


HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 26. Juni 2003, 07:02 Uhr

[peter.wedemeier1]

GFI (+ 1.69% bei $10.81) hat soeben im US-Handel die Führung von DROOY (+ 1.35% bei $2.26) übernommen. Beide führen nun vor GG (+ 1.28% bei $11.08).

Go Gold go GATA go GFI!

[peter.wedemeier1]

!

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