OT - In online world, feeling tremors of an anticipated shift in power - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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OT: In online world, feeling tremors of an anticipated shift in power

By Greg Papadopoulos

I can`t help feeling we`re on the verge of a seismic shift in the online world - a huge change in the balance of power. And at the center of it all, once the rubble has been cleared, we`ll find not a company or a group of companies, but an individual: you.
I`ve been feeling the temblors with increasing frequency. The movers and shakers are all making deals - mergers, buyouts, equity investments - with just one thing in mind: trying to gain some measure of control over the delivery channels of the future.

The biggest point of contention right now seems to be whether the primary channel will be digital subscriber line (DSL), cable, wireless, or what.

What many fail to see, however, is that, ultimately, you don`t really care about the delivery channel. You just want access to all your stuff - mail, calendar, stocks, bank accounts, medical records, you name it.

And you want it anywhere, anytime, on anything that`s convenient.

That means the next big thing will be wireless devices. Always on, always with you, they will drive the delivery of services for the foreseeable future. And I`m not talking here about a text-only version of the Web. Equipment makers have already developed the ability to deliver video over mobile phones, and voice-recognition technology is getting better all the time.

Having said that, I don`t believe wireless can be all things to all people. The greatest strength of mobile phones, pagers and PDAs - the compact form of these appliances - is also their greatest limitation. Which is why our television sets are also likely to be important access devices, especially as we learn to deliver more than just static Web pages that load really fast.

The real question then is who: Who can deliver all the things you want? As more and more aspects of your life go online - as you become accustomed to the ease of online shopping, banking and trading - it`s all going to come down to fundamentals. One of them is trust.

To get anywhere/anytime access to all your stuff, you will need to move your data off your personal computer and onto powerful Internet servers maintained by service providers. No different from what you do with your money today. You put it in a bank. Why? Because it`s safer there than in a cookie jar at home. And you don`t have to go home to get it. There are ATMs at the bank, the grocery store, the airport, the mall, even the movie theater.

So who will be the one provider you trust? Right now it`s an open question, but it won`t be for long. Soon, you`ll make your choice (hence the potential seismic shift), and that choice won`t be based on cable vs. satellite or DSL vs. wireless.

Decidedly old-fashioned elements - a strong brand, a solid reputation, good customer service - will hold sway. The service will have to be good technically, of course. More important, it will have to be good in terms of convenience and simplicity. The provider has to say, "You want me to take care of your calendar for you? I`ll do that. And I`ll get it to you in any way, shape, or form you want it delivered."

But it will take even more than that. It will take highly personalized service. As competition heats up, the choice will come down to who does the best job of solving problems and actually anticipating what you are going to need before you do.

Here`s an example: Wouldn`t it be great to get in your car and have the navigation system already know where you`re going (having checked your online calendar) and provide driving directions without being asked?

Service providers also will need to address thorny questions such as these: When is it OK to interrupt you? Is the message urgent? Are you in an important meeting right now? Would it be best, in this case, to ring or vibrate, transfer the call to voice mail or deliver a text message? And what options would you like to have? How about one-touch answers such as "I`ll call you later" or "Please hold"?

The key to success has less to do with ownership of the channel than knowledge of the channel - figuring out how to exploit it, how to tap its unique potential to solve problems for the individual (you) on the other end. And chances are it won`t be a single channel. Wireless and broadband, for instance, have different strengths. You won`t want to choose between them - you`ll want each at different times, but not separate services.

The real challenge, then, will be bringing everything together to create a seamless experience. And that requires taking a higher-level view - a view that takes technology into account, but goes beyond that to encompass the full range of your day-to-day life.

After all, if you don`t win, nobody wins.

http://www.phillynews.com/inquirer/2000/Feb/04/opinion/PAPA0…

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Greg Papadopoulos is the chief technology officer for Sun Microsystems Inc.