Südzucker - lange gut gehalten - jetzt doch wieder billig (Seite 67)

[wilmore]

So die 13€ seien mal geschafft

[MdBJuppZupp]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 66.953.654 von Amphibie am 11.02.21 14:23:30

[Amphibie]

Die Parameter für den oben abgebildeten Chart sind

Weißer Zucker
Kontraktgröße: 50 t
Währung: US-Dollar
Einheit: t
FOB (Free on Board)

[Amphibie]

In den letzten Monaten ist der Zuckerpreis stark angestiegen.

[moldau]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 66.812.794 von farmer55 am 04.02.21 09:34:46

Preispolitik, Kontraktpreisgestaltung

vielen Dank farmer55 für die Info.
Na ja, dann gibt es ja noch etwas Hoffnung, dass die SZ-Manager sich noch etwas weiter entwickeln und in Zukunft bei der Kontraktpreisgestaltung vielleicht etwas erfolgreicher agieren. Dennoch ist das doch sehr enttäuschend was sie letztes Jahr abgeliefert haben und man kann nur hoffen, dass dieser Weltkonzern in anderen wichtigen Bereichen des operativen Geschäftes bessere Managementqualitäten besitzt. Mich beschleichen dennoch jetzt manchmal Zweifel, ob SZ wirklich effizient und konsequent geführt und gesteuert wird und wäre erfreut, wenn SZ in den nächsten Quartalen das Gegenteil beweisen könnte.

[Einkaeufer]

Das mit EDF Man kann man nur unterstreichen. Da wurde das Geld der Aktionäre verbrannt ohne das jemand zur Rechenschaft gezogen wurde.

[farmer55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 66.650.276 von moldau am 27.01.21 21:34:04

Hatte gestern die Gelegenheit eine Frage bezüglich der niedrigen Vorkontraktzuckerpreise zu stellen. Beantwortet wurde die Frage von einem Manager vom Geschäftsbereich Zucker und von einem Aufsichtsratmitglied. Demnach ist es richtig, dass ein Teil der Zuckermenge bis Herbst zu niedrigen Preisen vorkontaktiert wurde. Aber ein Grossteil der Zuckerverkäufe in diesem Zeitraum wären noch ohne Kontrakt und würden auch noch an steigenden Preisen partizipieren können. Südzucker ist sich dieser wiederholten schlechten erzielten Erlöse am Markt bewußt und es gibt zur Zeit Strategien und Maßnahmen in Zukunft besser den erzeugten Zucker zu vermarkten.
Ich finde es auch befremdlich, dass Südzucker als Marktführer in Europa in der Vermarktung von Zucker schlechter als die Mitbewerber ist.
Es besteht berechtigte Hoffnung auf Besserung. Ich traue Herr Pörksen zu, dass er der schwerfälligen trägen Susi dampf machen wird. Grundsätzlich sehe ich Südzucker über die verschiedenen Sparten, die sämtlich auf den Endverbraucher zielen und relativ konjunkturresistent sind gut aufgestellt.
Es wäre ja schon genug, wenn Südzucker die teuren Fehler der Vergangenheit unterlassen würde. D.h. Kauf der Zuckerfabriken in Frankreich, Preisabsprachen mit Mitbewerbern, Anteilskauf von EDF MAN.
Allein schon dann kann es wieder die süsse Susi werden (Süsse Susi ist eine Werbefigur für Haushaltszucker)

[Gattone]

Anbei der view von moody's... Gute Zusammenfassung mit aktuellen Zahlen, meiner Meinung nach zu "konservativ", schaun mer mal...

Rating Action: Moody's affirms Suedzucker's Baa3 rating; outlook remains negative

Global Credit Research - 27 Jan 2021

Milan, January 27, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the Baa3 long-term issuer rating and the Prime-3 (P-3) commercial paper rating of Suedzucker AG ('Suedzucker' or 'the company') and Suedzucker International Finance B.V. Concurrently, Moody's has also affirmed the B2 rating of the guaranteed junior subordinated notes (or 'the hybrid') issued by Suedzucker International Finance B.V. The outlook for both entities remains negative.

"Our decision to affirm Suedzucker's ratings with a negative outlook reflects our view that the improvement in the company's performance in fiscal year ending February 2021 was and continues to be disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, leaving its credit metrics weakly positioned for its rating," said Paolo Leschiutta, a Moody's Senior Vice President and lead analyst for Suedzucker. "Visibility on a full recovery in the sugar segment remains limited, and the company still has to demonstrate its ability to manage volatility in sugar prices."

"However, we have also taken into account the progress made by the company in improving its profitability, cash flow generation and credit metrics over the last two years, as well our expectation of further improvements in the company's credit metrics over the next 12 months to levels consistent with its investment grade rating," added Mr. Leschiutta.

A full list of affected ratings is provided at the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The affirmation of Suedzucker's Baa3 rating reflects Moody's view that the company's has made good progress at improving its underlying profitability and cash generation which, together with positive supply/demand dynamics in the European sugar market, should support further improvement in credit metrics over the next 12 months.

The recovery path in the company's operating performance, however, was disrupted by the coronavirus outbreak during fiscal year ending February 2021 (fiscal 2021) and further improvements during the calendar year 2021 will be below Moody's previous expectations. Against this backdrop, Sudzucker was able to improve its EBITDA margin to 8.3% for the last twelve months to November 2020 from 6.0% in fiscal 2019.

Suedzucker is the leading beet sugar producer in Europe. A leaner and more flexible cost base in the sugar segment following the restructuring plan and closure of plants executed in 2019 and 2020, lower reliance on long term contracts, and increasing cash generation from non-sugar related activities should allow the company to further improve its profitability and credit metrics to levels consistent with its Baa3 rating. Although Moody's expects some recovery in European sugar prices over the short term owing to the significant production cuts in 2021, visibility on long term development of sugar prices and the ability of the company to maintain a profitable sugar segment remain modest at this stage.

The weaker than Moody's anticipated improvement in profitability and credit metrics in fiscal 2021 was largely due to a modest recovery in sugar prices since 1 October 2020 and higher volatility in ethanol prices. Lower sugar prices resulted from a combination of high sugar supply from Brazil following the drop in oil prices and the reduction in ethanol demand and because of lower consumption. These were largely due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the related drop in ethanol demand as a result of the contraction in mobility.

Lower sugar production in 2020 campaign on the back of contraction in growing areas and the yellow disease that is affecting the crop should support further price recovery in the next sugar marketing year starting on 1 October 2021. Moody's warns, however, that it is still difficult to predict a sustainable level of sugar prices across Europe over the medium to long term and to assess whether Suedzucker's reduction in capacity and improved efficiency will be enough to weather future price volatility. In addition, over the short term the uncertain evolution of the pandemic and the impact of lockdowns on sugar consumption might still result in ongoing volatility in prices.

More positively, Moody's also notes that the performance of the company's non-sugar division, which generated E456 million of EBITDA over the nine months to November 2020 representing 95% of the company's total EBITDA, was in line with the rating agency's expectations. This was despite the exposure of certain product categories like sweetener and portion packs to the food service industry which was affected by the coronavirus pandemic, but compensated by others, like frozen pizza, benefitting from higher at home consumption of convenience food.

Moody's currently expects Suedzucker's profitability over the next two years to improve compared to fiscal 2021 level allowing it to continue to generate positive free cash flow and to reduce its financial leverage. In particular, the rating assumes that the company's Moody's-adjusted debt to EBITDA will reduce towards 3.5x-4.0x in fiscal 2022, from 4.8x as of November 2020. Although Moody's expects the company to continue to focus on debt reduction, the rating agency notes that ongoing dividend payments reduce the availability of free cash flow for deleveraging. In this context, Moody's notes that the company has already reduced its dividend payments to a minimum of 0.20 E/share resulting in approximately E41 million of annual payment since fiscal 2019. In the rating agency's view, however, the company's governance and shareholder structure, largely composed of sugar beet farmers (share of 59 %) limits to some extent the company's flexibility on financial policies and strategy.

Suedzucker's rating remains weakly positioned. Moody's expects the company's profit and credit metrics to meet the required level for a Baa3 rating only by the end of fiscal 2022.

Suedzucker's rating is nonetheless supported by the company's scale and leading position in beet sugar production in Europe; the diversification into four business segments, with increasing contribution from non-sugar activities to the company's cash generation; and continued good liquidity. Moody's also expects positive free cash flow generation in fiscal 2021 and 2022 to be applied towards debt reduction, strengthening the company's balance sheet. Lower leverage together with a more flexible cost structure should allow the company to better absorb future volatility in the sugar segment profitability.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The B2 rating assigned to the junior subordinated notes (or the hybrid), five notches below the company's issuer rating, reflects the loss-absorption characteristics of the instrument (which receives Basket D treatment). Please refer to Moody's Cross-Sector Rating Methodology "Hybrid Equity Credit" published in September 2018 for further details.

LIQUIDITY

Suedzucker's good liquidity is supported by cash and short term securities of E473 million as of November 2020 and a fully undrawn E600 million five-year syndicated revolving credit facility maturing in July 2025 with a one-year term-out option. The facility has no material adverse change clauses or financial covenants. In addition, the company has E400 million worth of largely available syndicated credit lines signed by its subsidiary Agrana, E250 million maturing in December 2023 with a two-year term-out option and E150 million in August 2022 with a two-year term-out option, which contain financial covenants but with good headroom.

In Moody's view, the company currently has sufficient available liquidity to cover the expected cash needs over the next 12-18 months, which includes significant seasonality in working capital requirements and utilization under its E600 million commercial paper programme (E128 million outstanding as of November 2020). Debt generally peaks in January as inventories are relatively high at the beginning of the calendar year, and in May/June after the last payments to beet farmers, when it could be higher by a maximum of around E200 million-E300 million than that in February. The group tends to have cash and liquid investments on the balance sheet as of the end of the year, ahead of final payments to growers. Suedzucker typically finances its peak debt with increased issuance under the commercial paper programme or short-term bilateral credit lines, which are generally rolled over. Its short-term debt maturities are otherwise modest.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative rating outlook reflects the weak positioning of the rating in the Baa3 category with limited headroom for additional delays in deleveraging. It also reflects Moody's view that the company still has to demonstrate its ability to improve the profitability of the sugar segment and to strengthen its balance sheet in order to weather future sugar price volatility. Failure to improve further its profitability and credit metrics beyond February 2021 could result in downward rating pressure.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward rating pressure is currently unlikely, given the weak positioning of the rating. A significant improvement in profitability, together with the company's ability to demonstrate greater earnings stability or a higher contribution from non-sugar activities, could lead to upward pressure on the rating. A rating upgrade is also possible if the company succeeds in achieving and maintaining Moody's-adjusted leverage towards 3.0x on a sustained basis and sustained positive free cash flow.

Conversely, downward rating pressure could develop if the company fails to further improve its operating margin and credit metrics. In this respect, spot sugar prices entering the next sugar marketing campaign in October 2021 will be an important driver to assess the company's profitability in both fiscal 2022 and 2023. Quantitatively, Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA sustained above 4.0x after fiscal 2021 and retained cash flow/net debt sustainably below 15% could result in a downgrade. Any deterioration in the company's liquidity could also lead to a downgrade.

If Suedzucker's issuer rating is downgraded to below investment grade, the company's hybrid instrument would lose the equity credit (currently 75%) that Moody's assigns to the instrument for debt ratio computation, resulting in a negative impact on the company's Moody's-adjusted financial leverage calculation.

[HFfresser]

11,95 - 11,96 UK Hedge Funds kaufen?

[HFfresser]

Die Hedge Funds verhalten sich bei der Aktie Südzucker wie der Soriot von Astrazeneka.