Südamerikakrise - die Auswirkungen - 500 Beiträge pro Seite
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Meistdiskutierte Wertpapiere
| Platz | vorher | Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % | Anzahl | ||
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| 1. | 1. | 18.075,00 | +0,33 | 241 | |||
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Es wird mal Zeit, daß die Wirtschafts-und Währungskrise in Südamerika mal einen eigenen Thread bekommt. Wie sind die Auswirkungen auf Dollar oder die anderen Leitwährungen?
Fangen wir mal mit der folgenden Geschichte an:
"Virtuelles" Währungsrisiko in Argentinien
Von David DeRosa, Kolumnist für Bloomberg News
3. Okt. 2002 Die jüngste argentinische Wirtschaftsgeschichte ist eine Goldgrube für Wirtschaftsfachleute, die Krisen in Schwellenländern erforschen. Ein besonderes Juwel ist dabei eine Fallstudie darüber, wie eine inkompetente Regierung ein Währungsrisiko für die Sparer erschuf, wo eigentlich keines vorhanden war.
Was die Wirtschaftsberater des Präsidenten Eduardo Duhalde hier zu Stande gebracht haben, könnte man als „virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko“ titulieren. Und das hat so funktioniert: Blicken wir zum vergangenen Dezember zurück, als Argentinien noch nicht seine Zahlungen für Schulden in Höhe von 95 Milliarden Dollar eingestellt und den Peso abgewertet hatte. Ein argentinischer Bürger, der eine Abwertung fürchtete, hätte gut daran getan, seine Pesos in Dollar umzutauschen und auf ein Konto bei einer ausländischen Bank zu überweisen. Allerdings sind, rein finanziell gesehen, nicht viele Leute gewieft genug, um internationale Bankgeschäfte zu tätigen.
Wer das Desater voraus sah, tauschte in Dollar ...
Die zweitbeste Lösung, so hätte man meinen können, wäre der Umtausch der Pesos in Dollar und deren Hinterlegung bei einer argentinischen Bank gewesen. Die Einrichtung eines Dollarkontos bei einer argentinischen Bank war nämlich durchaus möglich. Logisch betrachtet hätte der spätere 70-prozentige Wertverlust des Peso einem solchen auf Dollar lautenden Bankkonto nichts anhaben dürfen, vorausgesetzt natürlich, die Krise hätte der Bank nicht das Genick gebrochen.
Soweit ist die Analyse korrekt. Was sie jedoch nicht berücksichtigt, ist der Entschluss der Regierung Duhalde, das zu kreieren, was ich als „virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko“ bezeichne. In Wirklichkeit hat Duhalde nämlich dafür gesorgt, dass ein Guthaben von 1.000 Dollar, das im Januar auf ein argentinisches Konto eingezahlt wurde, jetzt gerade einmal noch 494 Dollar wert ist. Und selbst das ist noch eine Übertreibung, denn nur ein Bruchteil des Geldes könnte nach und nach tatsächlich abgehoben werden. Der Großteil wäre nur in argentinische Staatsanleihen umtauschbar.
... und wurde trotzdem über den Tisch gezogen
Was mich an diesem ganzen Nepp interessiert, hat aber vor allem mit dem Wechselkurs zu tun. Wie später bekannt wurde, hatte die Regierung den Umtausch von Dollarguthaben in Pesos zu außerbörslichen Kursen angeordnet. So wurde ein willkürlicher Kurs von 1,4 Pesos pro Dollar festgesetzt, obwohl der Peso auf dem freien Markt deutlich weniger wert war. Als kleines Trostpflaster gestand die Regierung den Inhabern von Dollarkonten einen kümmerlichen und ganz offensichtlich unzureichenden Ausgleich für das zu, was sie Inflation nannte. Wie sie zu dieser Entscheidung gelangte, ist mir schleierhaft.
Aber was auch immer in Sachen Ausgleich unternommen wurde, das Endergebnis liegt schmerzlich klar zu Tage. Die hypothetischen 1.000 Dollar wurden in 1.890 Pesos umgetauscht. Angesichts des aktuellen Kurses von 3,73 Pesos pro Dollar war das Guthaben danach nicht einmal mehr die Hälfte wert. Heute stünde es nur noch mit 485 Dollar in den Büchern der Bank.
In Wahrheit hat die Regierung die Verluste, die der Bevölkerung durch den Peso entstanden, auch auf die Inhaber von Dollarkonten umgelegt. Es machte keinen Unterschied, ob man Dollar oder Pesos besaß. Wer ein Bankkonto hatte, wurde von der Abwertung des Peso geschröpft, punktum.
Politische Maßnahmen ohne Sinn und Verstand
Das Schicksal der Inhaber von Dollarkonten gleicht dem eines Mannes, der sich aus Furcht vor dem Straßenverkehr auf die Bordstein retten wollte und dann von einem Auto überrollt wurde, weil es über den Bordstein fuhr. Genau so waren bisher Duhaldes politische Maßnahmen: wie ein außer Kontrolle geratenes Auto, das überall hin- und herumrast.
Aber siehe da, wie wir nun erfahren durften, gibt es eine Gruppe von Anlegern, denen Duhalde inmitten des argentinischen Sturms einen sicheren Hafen bietet. Laut El Cronista hat die Regierung nämlich beschlossen, eine planmäßige Zahlung von 250 Millionen Dollar auf einige Auslandsanleihen zu leisten, um zu verhindern, dass die Garantie der Weltbank für diese Anleihen in Anspruch genommen wird. Würde Argentinien nicht zahlen, so müsste die Weltbank einspringen. Dies ist die erste Zahlung Argentiniens auf Auslandsanleihen seit seiner Zahlungsunfähigkeit. Was soll man jetzt davon halten? 250 Millionen Dollar, bar auf die Hand, komplett und ohne Abzüge und, um auf mein Thema zurückzukommen, ohne virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko! Es ist gut, die Weltbank zu sein.
Fangen wir mal mit der folgenden Geschichte an:
"Virtuelles" Währungsrisiko in Argentinien
Von David DeRosa, Kolumnist für Bloomberg News
3. Okt. 2002 Die jüngste argentinische Wirtschaftsgeschichte ist eine Goldgrube für Wirtschaftsfachleute, die Krisen in Schwellenländern erforschen. Ein besonderes Juwel ist dabei eine Fallstudie darüber, wie eine inkompetente Regierung ein Währungsrisiko für die Sparer erschuf, wo eigentlich keines vorhanden war.
Was die Wirtschaftsberater des Präsidenten Eduardo Duhalde hier zu Stande gebracht haben, könnte man als „virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko“ titulieren. Und das hat so funktioniert: Blicken wir zum vergangenen Dezember zurück, als Argentinien noch nicht seine Zahlungen für Schulden in Höhe von 95 Milliarden Dollar eingestellt und den Peso abgewertet hatte. Ein argentinischer Bürger, der eine Abwertung fürchtete, hätte gut daran getan, seine Pesos in Dollar umzutauschen und auf ein Konto bei einer ausländischen Bank zu überweisen. Allerdings sind, rein finanziell gesehen, nicht viele Leute gewieft genug, um internationale Bankgeschäfte zu tätigen.
Wer das Desater voraus sah, tauschte in Dollar ...
Die zweitbeste Lösung, so hätte man meinen können, wäre der Umtausch der Pesos in Dollar und deren Hinterlegung bei einer argentinischen Bank gewesen. Die Einrichtung eines Dollarkontos bei einer argentinischen Bank war nämlich durchaus möglich. Logisch betrachtet hätte der spätere 70-prozentige Wertverlust des Peso einem solchen auf Dollar lautenden Bankkonto nichts anhaben dürfen, vorausgesetzt natürlich, die Krise hätte der Bank nicht das Genick gebrochen.
Soweit ist die Analyse korrekt. Was sie jedoch nicht berücksichtigt, ist der Entschluss der Regierung Duhalde, das zu kreieren, was ich als „virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko“ bezeichne. In Wirklichkeit hat Duhalde nämlich dafür gesorgt, dass ein Guthaben von 1.000 Dollar, das im Januar auf ein argentinisches Konto eingezahlt wurde, jetzt gerade einmal noch 494 Dollar wert ist. Und selbst das ist noch eine Übertreibung, denn nur ein Bruchteil des Geldes könnte nach und nach tatsächlich abgehoben werden. Der Großteil wäre nur in argentinische Staatsanleihen umtauschbar.
... und wurde trotzdem über den Tisch gezogen
Was mich an diesem ganzen Nepp interessiert, hat aber vor allem mit dem Wechselkurs zu tun. Wie später bekannt wurde, hatte die Regierung den Umtausch von Dollarguthaben in Pesos zu außerbörslichen Kursen angeordnet. So wurde ein willkürlicher Kurs von 1,4 Pesos pro Dollar festgesetzt, obwohl der Peso auf dem freien Markt deutlich weniger wert war. Als kleines Trostpflaster gestand die Regierung den Inhabern von Dollarkonten einen kümmerlichen und ganz offensichtlich unzureichenden Ausgleich für das zu, was sie Inflation nannte. Wie sie zu dieser Entscheidung gelangte, ist mir schleierhaft.
Aber was auch immer in Sachen Ausgleich unternommen wurde, das Endergebnis liegt schmerzlich klar zu Tage. Die hypothetischen 1.000 Dollar wurden in 1.890 Pesos umgetauscht. Angesichts des aktuellen Kurses von 3,73 Pesos pro Dollar war das Guthaben danach nicht einmal mehr die Hälfte wert. Heute stünde es nur noch mit 485 Dollar in den Büchern der Bank.
In Wahrheit hat die Regierung die Verluste, die der Bevölkerung durch den Peso entstanden, auch auf die Inhaber von Dollarkonten umgelegt. Es machte keinen Unterschied, ob man Dollar oder Pesos besaß. Wer ein Bankkonto hatte, wurde von der Abwertung des Peso geschröpft, punktum.
Politische Maßnahmen ohne Sinn und Verstand
Das Schicksal der Inhaber von Dollarkonten gleicht dem eines Mannes, der sich aus Furcht vor dem Straßenverkehr auf die Bordstein retten wollte und dann von einem Auto überrollt wurde, weil es über den Bordstein fuhr. Genau so waren bisher Duhaldes politische Maßnahmen: wie ein außer Kontrolle geratenes Auto, das überall hin- und herumrast.
Aber siehe da, wie wir nun erfahren durften, gibt es eine Gruppe von Anlegern, denen Duhalde inmitten des argentinischen Sturms einen sicheren Hafen bietet. Laut El Cronista hat die Regierung nämlich beschlossen, eine planmäßige Zahlung von 250 Millionen Dollar auf einige Auslandsanleihen zu leisten, um zu verhindern, dass die Garantie der Weltbank für diese Anleihen in Anspruch genommen wird. Würde Argentinien nicht zahlen, so müsste die Weltbank einspringen. Dies ist die erste Zahlung Argentiniens auf Auslandsanleihen seit seiner Zahlungsunfähigkeit. Was soll man jetzt davon halten? 250 Millionen Dollar, bar auf die Hand, komplett und ohne Abzüge und, um auf mein Thema zurückzukommen, ohne virtuelles Wechselkursrisiko! Es ist gut, die Weltbank zu sein.
Riskantes Spiel im brasilianischen Real
2. Okt. 2002 Die brasilianischen Finanzmärkte schlagen im Vorfeld der Parlamentswahlen weiter Kapriolen. Während sich die Börse im Gefolge der schwachen Weltbörsen sowieso in einem Abwärtstrend befindet, sind sowohl der Real, als auch die Staatsanleihen seit Mitte September massiv unter Druck geraten.
Der Real schwächte sich gegen den Dollar von 3,12 Real pro Dollar bis auf 3,8465 Real in der Spitze am 27. September ab. Die Staatsanleihe mit einem Kupon von 14,5 Prozent und einer Laufzeit bis ins Jahr 2009 fiel gleichzeitig von 75 Prozent auf 56,82 Prozent im tief, bevor sie sich in den vergangenen zwei Tagen wieder erholen konnte. Allein am Mittwoch legt sie 5,2 Prozent auf 60,51 Prozent zu. Die Rendite liegt bei 27,48 Prozent. Auch der Real erholt sich leicht.
Hohe Renditen bei Brasilienanleihen
Was ist passiert? Erstens haben die Anleger realisiert, dass sich die Rendite der Anleihen in den vergangenen sechs Monaten so gut wie verdoppelt hat. Gleichzeitig zeigen jüngste Meinungsumfragen, dass José Serra als Kandidat der regierenden Partei doch noch Chancen haben könnte, mit einem Schlussspurt die Präsidentschaftswahlen zu gewinnen. Bisher hatten alle Umfragen eine breite Mehrheit schon im ersten Wahlgang am kommenden Sonntag für den linkspopulistischen Kandidaten Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gezeigt.
Anleger lieben Lula nicht, da er im Wahlkampf große Versprechungen gemacht, ohne erklären zu können, wie der diese nach der Wahl auch finanzieren wollte. Dabei steht Brasilien mit seiner Rekordverschuldung von 335 Milliarden Dollar sowieso schon mit dem Rücken zur Wand. Sollte es seine Schulden nicht mehr bedienen können, wäre das die größte Insolvenz aller Zeiten.
Es gibt Zeichen der Hoffnung
Aber die Hoffnung beruht nicht nur auf der jüngsten Umfrage. Sondern ein überraschend großer Handelsbilanzüberschuss im September schürt die Hoffnung auf eine ebenso gute Zahl für das Gesamtjahr, reduziert den Nettokapitalbedarf des Landes und macht es weniger verwundbar gegen Spekulationen. Gleichzeitig hat die Zentralbank 700 Millionen Dollar verkauft, um die Währung zu stabilisieren. Das hat den Real in zwei Tagen um mehr als sieben Prozent steigen lassen.
Dieser Stimmungswandel wird auch durch Spekulationen über das Regierungsteam gestützt, das im Falle eines Lula-Sieges an die Arbeit gehen könnte. „Wenn Lula Leute mit Kapitalmarkterfahrung in seiner Truppe hat, könnte der Markt mittelfristig eine Rally hinlegen“, glaubt der Ökonom Tony Volpon von Vortex Partners in Sao Paulo. So könnte der brasilianische Renten- und Devisenmarkt bei allen Risiken schließlich doch noch einige Überraschungen verbergen. Allerdings ist die Gefahr groß, sich bei einer Spekulation auf die Währung oder auf die Anleihen die Finger kräftig zu verbrennen.
2. Okt. 2002 Die brasilianischen Finanzmärkte schlagen im Vorfeld der Parlamentswahlen weiter Kapriolen. Während sich die Börse im Gefolge der schwachen Weltbörsen sowieso in einem Abwärtstrend befindet, sind sowohl der Real, als auch die Staatsanleihen seit Mitte September massiv unter Druck geraten.
Der Real schwächte sich gegen den Dollar von 3,12 Real pro Dollar bis auf 3,8465 Real in der Spitze am 27. September ab. Die Staatsanleihe mit einem Kupon von 14,5 Prozent und einer Laufzeit bis ins Jahr 2009 fiel gleichzeitig von 75 Prozent auf 56,82 Prozent im tief, bevor sie sich in den vergangenen zwei Tagen wieder erholen konnte. Allein am Mittwoch legt sie 5,2 Prozent auf 60,51 Prozent zu. Die Rendite liegt bei 27,48 Prozent. Auch der Real erholt sich leicht.
Hohe Renditen bei Brasilienanleihen
Was ist passiert? Erstens haben die Anleger realisiert, dass sich die Rendite der Anleihen in den vergangenen sechs Monaten so gut wie verdoppelt hat. Gleichzeitig zeigen jüngste Meinungsumfragen, dass José Serra als Kandidat der regierenden Partei doch noch Chancen haben könnte, mit einem Schlussspurt die Präsidentschaftswahlen zu gewinnen. Bisher hatten alle Umfragen eine breite Mehrheit schon im ersten Wahlgang am kommenden Sonntag für den linkspopulistischen Kandidaten Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gezeigt.
Anleger lieben Lula nicht, da er im Wahlkampf große Versprechungen gemacht, ohne erklären zu können, wie der diese nach der Wahl auch finanzieren wollte. Dabei steht Brasilien mit seiner Rekordverschuldung von 335 Milliarden Dollar sowieso schon mit dem Rücken zur Wand. Sollte es seine Schulden nicht mehr bedienen können, wäre das die größte Insolvenz aller Zeiten.
Es gibt Zeichen der Hoffnung
Aber die Hoffnung beruht nicht nur auf der jüngsten Umfrage. Sondern ein überraschend großer Handelsbilanzüberschuss im September schürt die Hoffnung auf eine ebenso gute Zahl für das Gesamtjahr, reduziert den Nettokapitalbedarf des Landes und macht es weniger verwundbar gegen Spekulationen. Gleichzeitig hat die Zentralbank 700 Millionen Dollar verkauft, um die Währung zu stabilisieren. Das hat den Real in zwei Tagen um mehr als sieben Prozent steigen lassen.
Dieser Stimmungswandel wird auch durch Spekulationen über das Regierungsteam gestützt, das im Falle eines Lula-Sieges an die Arbeit gehen könnte. „Wenn Lula Leute mit Kapitalmarkterfahrung in seiner Truppe hat, könnte der Markt mittelfristig eine Rally hinlegen“, glaubt der Ökonom Tony Volpon von Vortex Partners in Sao Paulo. So könnte der brasilianische Renten- und Devisenmarkt bei allen Risiken schließlich doch noch einige Überraschungen verbergen. Allerdings ist die Gefahr groß, sich bei einer Spekulation auf die Währung oder auf die Anleihen die Finger kräftig zu verbrennen.
`Lula` worries Brazil`s businesses
Much is at stake in Sunday`s election for South America`s largest economy.
October 5, 2002: 9:50 AM EDT
SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil`s presidential front-runner, has worked to shed his leftist image and reassure the nation`s business that trouble won`t befall the continent`s biggest economy.
But critics of the former auto plant worker and union boss, including some business leaders, are wary.
"We need a commander in chief of the economy -- one who is capable of making his own decisions," said Stefan Salej, a former president of the National Confederation of Industries. "My biggest fear is Lula`s lack of the competence and experience needed to govern Brazil, which will make him rely too much on advisers."
Silva, for his part, is reaching out to the businesses that once shunned him. Already holding a commanding lead in the polls ahead of Sunday`s election, he picked a textile magnate as his running mate and has pledged to honor the government`s foreign debt.
A growing number of businessmen, however, have endorsed Silva`s candidacy.
"We understand that Lula is the only alternative capable of implementing a government program that will reduce social inequalities, spur economic growth, create jobs and strengthen the domestic market," said a manifesto recently signed by more than 600 businessmen.
That`s not to say the country`s business leaders aren`t worried.
While some business leaders have jumped on his bandwagon, many others still fear the prospect of having his Workers Party in power. They worry it would end eight years of free-market reforms implemented by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Also at stake is Brazil`s ability to reactivate its economy, the biggest in South America, and attract the foreign capital needed to finance growth. Failure could lead the government to default on $100 billion it owes to foreign banks.
Worries about a victory by Silva, widely known as Lula, has led investors to drive Brazilian stocks and the currency, the real, sharply lower in recent weeks.
Silva has run for president three times before. In 1989, he lost to center-right populist Fernando Collor de Mello. Silva lost again in 1994 and 1998, both times to Cardoso. Now, with Cardoso legally barred from running for a third term and many Brazilians disillusioned with free-market reforms, Silva`s chances have never looked better.
He leads in the polls with about 49 percent support compared with about 21 percent for the government-backed candidate, Jose Serra.
Silva can win outright and avoid a runoff only if he gets more than 50 percent. The two other candidates, Anthony Garotinho and Ciro Gomes, were polling at around 18 percent and 10 percent respectively.
"Lula may have shed a lot of his left wing past, but I don`t think the same can be said of many members of the Workers Party," said Salej.
If Silva wins, though, he`ll probably face a divided congress, with his leftist Workers Party holding a small minority of seats, meaning he`ll have to bargain with the right to govern.
One group backing Silva is the Landless Rural Workers Movement, a leftist group that invades idle land to force the government`s hand on land reform. Silva has told ranchers he is the only candidate that can control the group.
The president of the industrial group Votorantim, Antonio Ermirio de Moraes, said Brazil needs $25 billion to $30 billion a year in foreign capital to close its balance of payments deficit.
"Will that money be forthcoming if Lula is elected?" Moraes was quoted as saying by the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper. "If the money does not come, the dollar will go through the roof, inflation will explode and we will be facing a very serious problem," he said.
A Silva win could also hamper plans by President Bush to implement the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, a hemispheric bloc of 34 nations stretching from Alaska to Argentina. Silva has called it an "annexation of Latin America to the United States."
For Kurt von Mettenheim, a political scientist at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, one of Brazil`s most prestigious business schools, investors and businessmen should fear the government candidate Serra more than Silva.
"A Workers Party government, he added, "would be forced to be more cautious and maintain the core policies of the Cardoso administration -- flexible exchange rates, fiscal restraint and inflation targeting."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2002 Associated Press All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Much is at stake in Sunday`s election for South America`s largest economy.
October 5, 2002: 9:50 AM EDT
SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) - Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil`s presidential front-runner, has worked to shed his leftist image and reassure the nation`s business that trouble won`t befall the continent`s biggest economy.
But critics of the former auto plant worker and union boss, including some business leaders, are wary.
"We need a commander in chief of the economy -- one who is capable of making his own decisions," said Stefan Salej, a former president of the National Confederation of Industries. "My biggest fear is Lula`s lack of the competence and experience needed to govern Brazil, which will make him rely too much on advisers."
Silva, for his part, is reaching out to the businesses that once shunned him. Already holding a commanding lead in the polls ahead of Sunday`s election, he picked a textile magnate as his running mate and has pledged to honor the government`s foreign debt.
A growing number of businessmen, however, have endorsed Silva`s candidacy.
"We understand that Lula is the only alternative capable of implementing a government program that will reduce social inequalities, spur economic growth, create jobs and strengthen the domestic market," said a manifesto recently signed by more than 600 businessmen.
That`s not to say the country`s business leaders aren`t worried.
While some business leaders have jumped on his bandwagon, many others still fear the prospect of having his Workers Party in power. They worry it would end eight years of free-market reforms implemented by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Also at stake is Brazil`s ability to reactivate its economy, the biggest in South America, and attract the foreign capital needed to finance growth. Failure could lead the government to default on $100 billion it owes to foreign banks.
Worries about a victory by Silva, widely known as Lula, has led investors to drive Brazilian stocks and the currency, the real, sharply lower in recent weeks.
Silva has run for president three times before. In 1989, he lost to center-right populist Fernando Collor de Mello. Silva lost again in 1994 and 1998, both times to Cardoso. Now, with Cardoso legally barred from running for a third term and many Brazilians disillusioned with free-market reforms, Silva`s chances have never looked better.
He leads in the polls with about 49 percent support compared with about 21 percent for the government-backed candidate, Jose Serra.
Silva can win outright and avoid a runoff only if he gets more than 50 percent. The two other candidates, Anthony Garotinho and Ciro Gomes, were polling at around 18 percent and 10 percent respectively.
"Lula may have shed a lot of his left wing past, but I don`t think the same can be said of many members of the Workers Party," said Salej.
If Silva wins, though, he`ll probably face a divided congress, with his leftist Workers Party holding a small minority of seats, meaning he`ll have to bargain with the right to govern.
One group backing Silva is the Landless Rural Workers Movement, a leftist group that invades idle land to force the government`s hand on land reform. Silva has told ranchers he is the only candidate that can control the group.
The president of the industrial group Votorantim, Antonio Ermirio de Moraes, said Brazil needs $25 billion to $30 billion a year in foreign capital to close its balance of payments deficit.
"Will that money be forthcoming if Lula is elected?" Moraes was quoted as saying by the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper. "If the money does not come, the dollar will go through the roof, inflation will explode and we will be facing a very serious problem," he said.
A Silva win could also hamper plans by President Bush to implement the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas, a hemispheric bloc of 34 nations stretching from Alaska to Argentina. Silva has called it an "annexation of Latin America to the United States."
For Kurt von Mettenheim, a political scientist at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, one of Brazil`s most prestigious business schools, investors and businessmen should fear the government candidate Serra more than Silva.
"A Workers Party government, he added, "would be forced to be more cautious and maintain the core policies of the Cardoso administration -- flexible exchange rates, fiscal restraint and inflation targeting."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2002 Associated Press All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
10/07 07:38
Brazil`s 41st President Must Pay Debt to Help Poor (Update1)
By Romina Nicaretta
Sao Paulo, Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil`s 41st president, whether it`s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Worker`s Party or Jose Serra of the current ruling coalition, will have to control inflation and cut spending before narrowing the gap between rich and poor, investors said.
Lula had 47 percent of the valid votes cast yesterday by Brazil`s 115 million voters, compared with 24 percent for Serra, setting up a run-off election on Oct. 27. An Ibope poll taken this week said Lula would win the second round of voting over Serra by a 20 percentage-point margin.
``Lula will have a very difficult job to improve the country`s situation, to get growth, to help the poor,`` said Nicholas Field, who helps manage $300 million in emerging market bonds for WestLB Asset Management in London. ``He will have to maintain fiscal discipline before he can achieve his more general aims of reducing income inequality.``
Voters in the world`s fifth most populous country are ready for a change after eight years under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso left them with rising unemployment and an economy that`s barely growing.
Currency Plunges
Fifty-six-year-old Lula -- he says his birthday is Oct. 27, though his birth certificate has it as Oct. 6 -- has told voters he would create 8 million jobs and promised creditors he would honor Brazil`s obligations to keep up payments on some $300 billion in debt. He`ll try to do that after a 37 percent plunge in the nation`s currency this year sparked a surge in consumer prices, keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates.
Serra, 60, has campaigned on promises to create jobs, expand health and education funding and revive state controls on fuel prices. Though he`s favored by most investors because of his ties to Cardoso`s government, Serra`s 40-year political career began in the 1960s as a student leader of Brazil`s liberation theology movement, which espoused involving the Catholic Church in politics to help the poor.
Brazilian bonds rose for a sixth day after Lula failed to attract a majority of votes needed to win yesterday`s election, leading to a runoff vote in three weeks. The benchmark 8 percent 2014 bond rose to 56.0 from 54.5 Friday, according to prices supplied by ABN Amro NV.
Whoever wins, it`s probable that plans to ameliorate social conditions will take a back seat to economic considerations, investors said.
Inflation
Inflation in September accelerated to 0.76 percent, more than double the increases in consumer prices in the same month in the past two years, according to the Economic Research Institute in Sao Paulo. The institute`s index measures prices in the nation`s biggest and wealthiest state.
``The risk is that inflation comes back at an accelerated pace,`` said Odair Abate, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Group Plc. in Sao Paulo. ``There isn`t a country in the world right now with high inflation, so it would make it hard for Brazil to attract capital and finance its growth.``
South America`s largest economy is emerging from a recession that began late last year, a recovery now threatened by a more than one-third plunge in the country`s currency, bonds and stocks in the past six months as Lula began rising in opinion polls.
The outlook for the $513 billion economy, which is expected by the International Monetary Fund to grow 1.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2003, is clouded by a decline in investment to developing countries, which depend on capital from the developed world for growth. Declining world equity markets aren`t helping.
Risk Appetite Wanes
The loss of appetite for risk has hit Brazil and its neighbors especially hard. Dedicated Latin America equity and fixed income funds are at their lowest level since October 1993, a report by Merrill Lynch & Co. said.
``As long as investors feel that a new government can still change economic policy, the uncertainty will persist, and growth and investment will suffer,`` said Marcelo Fleury, managing director for Latin America with Boca Raton, Florida-based brokerage Sterling Financial.
In Argentina, a currency devaluation combined with a debt default and a four-year recession has plunged half the population of 36 million into poverty and left almost a quarter of them without adequate food, according to government statistics.
Though Lula has attracted the support of Brazilian leaders such as former presidents Itamar Franco and Jose Sarney and businessmen such as Eugenio Staub, president of Gradiente Eletronica SA, Brazil`s largest maker of consumer electronics, many business people are skeptical. The fact that Lula`s running mate is Jose Alencar, owner of textile company Cia. de Tecidos do Norte de Minas SA, hasn`t changed their views.
Minimizing Investment
Companies such as Empresa Bandeirante de Energia SA and auto- parts maker Iochpe Maxion SA expect growth to remain weak, interest rates to stay high and the currency to weaken further after the election.
``Markets will remain closed and it will be difficult to raise money in capital markets,`` said Thomas Bull, chief financial officer at Bandeirante, the country`s fourth largest power distributor.
Bandeirante, which plans to spend 330 million reais by 2004 to modernize and expand its services, may delay investments if it can`t get financing for them, Bull said.
``We are keeping investments to the minimum until we have a clearer idea of what the economy is going to be like,`` said Helder Teixeira, chief financial officer of Durametal SA, a maker of brake drums in the city of Fortaleza.
Softer Tone
A Getulio Vargas Foundation survey of 230 Brazilian companies with total sales of 41 billion reais showed 72 percent expect business to remain unchanged, or worsen in the next six months. That compares with 65 percent in June.
After years espousing debt renegotiation and criticizing the International Monetary Fund for insisting on fiscal discipline, former union leader Lula has softened his tone on the economy this year. Some say he`s matured. Others say he`s merely changed his rhetoric after losing three prior presidential election bids.
Lula hasn`t explained how he will cut spending or make up an expected 16 billion-real decline in tax revenue next year. He has said boosting growth will result in higher tax income.
The revenue shortfall may prevent the next government, which takes office Jan. 1, from meeting an IMF requirement to maintain a budget surplus before debt interest payments of 3.75 percent of gross domestic product. The surplus is seen as the most important indicator of Brazil`s ability to pay obligations and keep its debt stable in relation to GDP.
Back Taxes
Cardoso made the target this year because Brazil`s largest pension funds agreed to pay a year of back taxes and the tax agency won several lawsuits over unpaid taxes, said Raul Velloso, a Brazilian economist who specializes in public finances.
``Lula won`t have the one-time revenue Cardoso had this year,`` Velloso said. ``How he will generate this surplus under a difficult economic scenario of slow growth and high interest rates is a question mark.``
Brazil`s 41st President Must Pay Debt to Help Poor (Update1)
By Romina Nicaretta
Sao Paulo, Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil`s 41st president, whether it`s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Worker`s Party or Jose Serra of the current ruling coalition, will have to control inflation and cut spending before narrowing the gap between rich and poor, investors said.
Lula had 47 percent of the valid votes cast yesterday by Brazil`s 115 million voters, compared with 24 percent for Serra, setting up a run-off election on Oct. 27. An Ibope poll taken this week said Lula would win the second round of voting over Serra by a 20 percentage-point margin.
``Lula will have a very difficult job to improve the country`s situation, to get growth, to help the poor,`` said Nicholas Field, who helps manage $300 million in emerging market bonds for WestLB Asset Management in London. ``He will have to maintain fiscal discipline before he can achieve his more general aims of reducing income inequality.``
Voters in the world`s fifth most populous country are ready for a change after eight years under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso left them with rising unemployment and an economy that`s barely growing.
Currency Plunges
Fifty-six-year-old Lula -- he says his birthday is Oct. 27, though his birth certificate has it as Oct. 6 -- has told voters he would create 8 million jobs and promised creditors he would honor Brazil`s obligations to keep up payments on some $300 billion in debt. He`ll try to do that after a 37 percent plunge in the nation`s currency this year sparked a surge in consumer prices, keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates.
Serra, 60, has campaigned on promises to create jobs, expand health and education funding and revive state controls on fuel prices. Though he`s favored by most investors because of his ties to Cardoso`s government, Serra`s 40-year political career began in the 1960s as a student leader of Brazil`s liberation theology movement, which espoused involving the Catholic Church in politics to help the poor.
Brazilian bonds rose for a sixth day after Lula failed to attract a majority of votes needed to win yesterday`s election, leading to a runoff vote in three weeks. The benchmark 8 percent 2014 bond rose to 56.0 from 54.5 Friday, according to prices supplied by ABN Amro NV.
Whoever wins, it`s probable that plans to ameliorate social conditions will take a back seat to economic considerations, investors said.
Inflation
Inflation in September accelerated to 0.76 percent, more than double the increases in consumer prices in the same month in the past two years, according to the Economic Research Institute in Sao Paulo. The institute`s index measures prices in the nation`s biggest and wealthiest state.
``The risk is that inflation comes back at an accelerated pace,`` said Odair Abate, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Group Plc. in Sao Paulo. ``There isn`t a country in the world right now with high inflation, so it would make it hard for Brazil to attract capital and finance its growth.``
South America`s largest economy is emerging from a recession that began late last year, a recovery now threatened by a more than one-third plunge in the country`s currency, bonds and stocks in the past six months as Lula began rising in opinion polls.
The outlook for the $513 billion economy, which is expected by the International Monetary Fund to grow 1.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2003, is clouded by a decline in investment to developing countries, which depend on capital from the developed world for growth. Declining world equity markets aren`t helping.
Risk Appetite Wanes
The loss of appetite for risk has hit Brazil and its neighbors especially hard. Dedicated Latin America equity and fixed income funds are at their lowest level since October 1993, a report by Merrill Lynch & Co. said.
``As long as investors feel that a new government can still change economic policy, the uncertainty will persist, and growth and investment will suffer,`` said Marcelo Fleury, managing director for Latin America with Boca Raton, Florida-based brokerage Sterling Financial.
In Argentina, a currency devaluation combined with a debt default and a four-year recession has plunged half the population of 36 million into poverty and left almost a quarter of them without adequate food, according to government statistics.
Though Lula has attracted the support of Brazilian leaders such as former presidents Itamar Franco and Jose Sarney and businessmen such as Eugenio Staub, president of Gradiente Eletronica SA, Brazil`s largest maker of consumer electronics, many business people are skeptical. The fact that Lula`s running mate is Jose Alencar, owner of textile company Cia. de Tecidos do Norte de Minas SA, hasn`t changed their views.
Minimizing Investment
Companies such as Empresa Bandeirante de Energia SA and auto- parts maker Iochpe Maxion SA expect growth to remain weak, interest rates to stay high and the currency to weaken further after the election.
``Markets will remain closed and it will be difficult to raise money in capital markets,`` said Thomas Bull, chief financial officer at Bandeirante, the country`s fourth largest power distributor.
Bandeirante, which plans to spend 330 million reais by 2004 to modernize and expand its services, may delay investments if it can`t get financing for them, Bull said.
``We are keeping investments to the minimum until we have a clearer idea of what the economy is going to be like,`` said Helder Teixeira, chief financial officer of Durametal SA, a maker of brake drums in the city of Fortaleza.
Softer Tone
A Getulio Vargas Foundation survey of 230 Brazilian companies with total sales of 41 billion reais showed 72 percent expect business to remain unchanged, or worsen in the next six months. That compares with 65 percent in June.
After years espousing debt renegotiation and criticizing the International Monetary Fund for insisting on fiscal discipline, former union leader Lula has softened his tone on the economy this year. Some say he`s matured. Others say he`s merely changed his rhetoric after losing three prior presidential election bids.
Lula hasn`t explained how he will cut spending or make up an expected 16 billion-real decline in tax revenue next year. He has said boosting growth will result in higher tax income.
The revenue shortfall may prevent the next government, which takes office Jan. 1, from meeting an IMF requirement to maintain a budget surplus before debt interest payments of 3.75 percent of gross domestic product. The surplus is seen as the most important indicator of Brazil`s ability to pay obligations and keep its debt stable in relation to GDP.
Back Taxes
Cardoso made the target this year because Brazil`s largest pension funds agreed to pay a year of back taxes and the tax agency won several lawsuits over unpaid taxes, said Raul Velloso, a Brazilian economist who specializes in public finances.
``Lula won`t have the one-time revenue Cardoso had this year,`` Velloso said. ``How he will generate this surplus under a difficult economic scenario of slow growth and high interest rates is a question mark.``
Brasiliens Real markiert ein weiteres Rekordtief
11. Okt. 2002 Brasiliens Finanzmärkte bleiben Wackelkandidaten. Am besten lässt sich dies am Real ablesen. Die Landeswährung ist am Donnerstag auf ein neues Rekrodtief gefallen. Pro Dollar mussten erstmals seit der Währungsreform im Jahr 1994 mehr als vier Real gezahlt werden. Am Vortag hatte der Dollar noch bei 3,87 Real und Anfang des Jahres bei 2,30 Real notiert.
Für den brasilianischen Staat und die Unternehmen ist dieser Wertverfall eine Katastrophe. Die Exportchancen verbessern sich zwar dadurch, aber viel wichtiger ist derzeit die somit erhöhte Last bei der Bedienung der auf Dollar lautenden Schulden. Diese belaufen sich auf immerhin rund die Hälfte der insgesamt über 300 Milliarden Real betragenden Schulden.
Bei jedem Centavo, den die Landeswährung verliert, steigen laut Christian Stracke, Chef des Emerging Market Researchs bei CreditSights, die Dollar-denominierten Staatsschulden um 1,3 Milliarden Real. Alleine seit vergangenen Freitag hätten sich auf dieser Basis die Schulden um 43 Milliarden Real erhöht.
Der Real wird in Dollar gerechnet immer weniger wert.
Warten auf den Wahlausgang
Zur Begründung für die Verlusten beim Real verweisen Beobachter weiter auf die wirtschaftliche Vertrauenskrise, die sich an den Präsidentschaftswahlen entzündet. Der im ersten Wahlgang mit klarem Vorsprung siegreiche linksgerichtete Kandidaten Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva genießt an den Märkten wenig Vertrauen. Denn trotz aller gegenteiliger Beteuerung sind Beobachter nicht restlos von Lulas Willen zur Schuldentilgung, dem im zweiten Wahlgang am 27. Oktober die besten Siegchancen zugebilligt werden, überzeugt.
Der Abwertungsdruck auf den Real nahm außerdem zuletzt auch deshalb zu, weil am 17. Oktober brasilianische Währungs-Schuldtitel im Wert von 3,6 Milliarden US-Dollar fällig werden. Die Zentralbank in Brasilia hatte diese Woche einen kleinen Teil dieser Titel (etwa 600 Millionen Dollar) erneuern können. Es wird allerdings damit gerechnet, dass der größte Teil zurückgezahlt werden wird.
Trotzdem sind mit diesem Termin Ängste verbunden. Die Investoren machen sich Sorgen über die verbliebenen Handlungsoptionen der Notenbank. „Man ist in einem Dilemma“, erklärt Alexandre Bittencourt, Fondsmanager bei Banif Primus Asset Management. „Akzeptiert die Notenbank beim Umschuldungsversuch die jetzigen Konditionen nicht, bringt dies Druck auf den Real. Akzeptiert sie aber das hohe Renditeniveau, ist damit die Frage verbunden, wie solvent die Schulden sind.“
Kaum Aussicht auf schnelle Lösungen
Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Zwickmühle scheint es wenig wahrscheinlich, dass die Begründung für die Brasilien-Krise nur die Wahlen sind. Schließlich darf nicht vergessen werden, dass auch die jetzige Regierung in den vergangenen Jahren die Schulden vervielfacht hat. Selbst bei einem kaum zu erwartenden Wahlsieg des Bewerbers der Mitte-Rechts-Regierung, José Serra, ist nicht zwangsläufig mit einer prompten Entspannung der Lage zu rechnen.
Die Kiste ist vielmehr so verfahren, dass Brasilien eigentlich nur noch auf seine Größe hoffen kann. Denn eigentlich kann sich die Weltwirtschaft keinen Sanierungsfall Brasilien leisten. Dies nährt zumindest die Hoffnung auf weitere Hilfspakete. Auf deren Wirkung sollten sich vorsichtige Anleger aber besser nicht verlassen, sondern lieber die Finger von den brasilianischen Finanzmärkten lassen.
11. Okt. 2002 Brasiliens Finanzmärkte bleiben Wackelkandidaten. Am besten lässt sich dies am Real ablesen. Die Landeswährung ist am Donnerstag auf ein neues Rekrodtief gefallen. Pro Dollar mussten erstmals seit der Währungsreform im Jahr 1994 mehr als vier Real gezahlt werden. Am Vortag hatte der Dollar noch bei 3,87 Real und Anfang des Jahres bei 2,30 Real notiert.
Für den brasilianischen Staat und die Unternehmen ist dieser Wertverfall eine Katastrophe. Die Exportchancen verbessern sich zwar dadurch, aber viel wichtiger ist derzeit die somit erhöhte Last bei der Bedienung der auf Dollar lautenden Schulden. Diese belaufen sich auf immerhin rund die Hälfte der insgesamt über 300 Milliarden Real betragenden Schulden.
Bei jedem Centavo, den die Landeswährung verliert, steigen laut Christian Stracke, Chef des Emerging Market Researchs bei CreditSights, die Dollar-denominierten Staatsschulden um 1,3 Milliarden Real. Alleine seit vergangenen Freitag hätten sich auf dieser Basis die Schulden um 43 Milliarden Real erhöht.
Der Real wird in Dollar gerechnet immer weniger wert.Warten auf den Wahlausgang
Zur Begründung für die Verlusten beim Real verweisen Beobachter weiter auf die wirtschaftliche Vertrauenskrise, die sich an den Präsidentschaftswahlen entzündet. Der im ersten Wahlgang mit klarem Vorsprung siegreiche linksgerichtete Kandidaten Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva genießt an den Märkten wenig Vertrauen. Denn trotz aller gegenteiliger Beteuerung sind Beobachter nicht restlos von Lulas Willen zur Schuldentilgung, dem im zweiten Wahlgang am 27. Oktober die besten Siegchancen zugebilligt werden, überzeugt.
Der Abwertungsdruck auf den Real nahm außerdem zuletzt auch deshalb zu, weil am 17. Oktober brasilianische Währungs-Schuldtitel im Wert von 3,6 Milliarden US-Dollar fällig werden. Die Zentralbank in Brasilia hatte diese Woche einen kleinen Teil dieser Titel (etwa 600 Millionen Dollar) erneuern können. Es wird allerdings damit gerechnet, dass der größte Teil zurückgezahlt werden wird.
Trotzdem sind mit diesem Termin Ängste verbunden. Die Investoren machen sich Sorgen über die verbliebenen Handlungsoptionen der Notenbank. „Man ist in einem Dilemma“, erklärt Alexandre Bittencourt, Fondsmanager bei Banif Primus Asset Management. „Akzeptiert die Notenbank beim Umschuldungsversuch die jetzigen Konditionen nicht, bringt dies Druck auf den Real. Akzeptiert sie aber das hohe Renditeniveau, ist damit die Frage verbunden, wie solvent die Schulden sind.“
Kaum Aussicht auf schnelle Lösungen
Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Zwickmühle scheint es wenig wahrscheinlich, dass die Begründung für die Brasilien-Krise nur die Wahlen sind. Schließlich darf nicht vergessen werden, dass auch die jetzige Regierung in den vergangenen Jahren die Schulden vervielfacht hat. Selbst bei einem kaum zu erwartenden Wahlsieg des Bewerbers der Mitte-Rechts-Regierung, José Serra, ist nicht zwangsläufig mit einer prompten Entspannung der Lage zu rechnen.
Die Kiste ist vielmehr so verfahren, dass Brasilien eigentlich nur noch auf seine Größe hoffen kann. Denn eigentlich kann sich die Weltwirtschaft keinen Sanierungsfall Brasilien leisten. Dies nährt zumindest die Hoffnung auf weitere Hilfspakete. Auf deren Wirkung sollten sich vorsichtige Anleger aber besser nicht verlassen, sondern lieber die Finger von den brasilianischen Finanzmärkten lassen.
Trading Spotlight
Top Stories World
10/26 05:28
Brazil`s Lula Pledges to Reduce Reliance on Foreign Financing
By James Craig and Laura Zelenko
Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the former union leader favored to win Brazil`s presidential election tomorrow, said he wants to make his country less reliant on international financing and restore people`s self-respect by creating employment and stimulating domestic demand.
``Brazil can`t depend all its life on external money,`` Lula said in a two-hour debate nationally televised with his rival Jose Serra. ``The country really is going to get through this and recover its self esteem.``
South America`s biggest country is struggling to keep up payments on $300 billion of debt, the bulk of which is tied to an appreciating dollar or rising interest rates. Brazil`s currency has lost almost 40 percent of its value this year as international banks scaled back lending and investors became concerned the government might default.
Lula, 56, who is running for president for a fourth time, sparred with Serra over issues from fighting drug trafficking to raising the minimum wage. Lula framed his opponent, a candidate for the governing coalition, as a remnant of policies that have stalled the economy and pushed unemployment to a two-year high. Serra, 60, said Lula hasn`t been clear how he will meet promises such as doubling the purchasing power of the minimum wage in four years.
``It seems the closer we get to election day, the vaguer the proposals get,`` Serra said in response to a question from one of the undecided voters invited to an open forum with the candidates.
``I`m not offended,`` Lula said.
Encourage Savings
Lula, who held a 26 percentage-point lead in the latest polls, said he will provide incentives to encourage savings, responding to a question from a dental surgeon who said he was concerned Brazil might freeze deposits as Argentina did last year after defaulting on $95 billion of bonds.
``There`s nothing more sacred in a country than the worker, the self-employed, the laborer, to have a little bit left over to invest,`` Lula said, clasping his hands. ``We`re going to have a policy to provide incentives to encourage people`s savings because we need money.`` Savings have declined to 17 percent of gross domestic product from 23 percent in the late 1980s, he said.
Brazil`s bonds, stocks and currency extended a week of gains yesterday on investor expectations Lula will name an economic team committed to policies aimed at avoiding a debt default. During the debate, nobody asked questions about Brazil`s debt load, which tripled under the current administration of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Lula, whose Workers` Party in the past has called for renegotiation of the debt, said the Brazilian economy is ``very vulnerable`` and pledged to help revive growth.
Recover Trust
``We have to recover the reliability, the trust in Brazil,`` Lula said. ``People will see that Brazil is taken seriously.``
Lula said he aims to spend more on social services and to increase security at Brazil`s borders to stem drug trafficking. He said he would finance his plan through higher tax revenue and economic growth, while ensuring that he doesn`t spark inflation.
``We`re really going to fight this very seriously,`` Lula said ``The government is going to spend what it can.``
The two candidates, both wearing dark, three-button suits and red ties, agreed on one issue -- that Brazil`s currency is undervalued.
Serra said he`s convinced the dollar will begin to fall against the Brazilian real.
``It`s terrible to invest in dollars, which today has a false price,`` Serra said. ``If anyone thinks the dollar is a good investment, he`s wrong.``
(serra wird wohl verlieren, aber allein die Aussage...)
10/26 05:28
Brazil`s Lula Pledges to Reduce Reliance on Foreign Financing
By James Craig and Laura Zelenko
Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the former union leader favored to win Brazil`s presidential election tomorrow, said he wants to make his country less reliant on international financing and restore people`s self-respect by creating employment and stimulating domestic demand.
``Brazil can`t depend all its life on external money,`` Lula said in a two-hour debate nationally televised with his rival Jose Serra. ``The country really is going to get through this and recover its self esteem.``
South America`s biggest country is struggling to keep up payments on $300 billion of debt, the bulk of which is tied to an appreciating dollar or rising interest rates. Brazil`s currency has lost almost 40 percent of its value this year as international banks scaled back lending and investors became concerned the government might default.
Lula, 56, who is running for president for a fourth time, sparred with Serra over issues from fighting drug trafficking to raising the minimum wage. Lula framed his opponent, a candidate for the governing coalition, as a remnant of policies that have stalled the economy and pushed unemployment to a two-year high. Serra, 60, said Lula hasn`t been clear how he will meet promises such as doubling the purchasing power of the minimum wage in four years.
``It seems the closer we get to election day, the vaguer the proposals get,`` Serra said in response to a question from one of the undecided voters invited to an open forum with the candidates.
``I`m not offended,`` Lula said.
Encourage Savings
Lula, who held a 26 percentage-point lead in the latest polls, said he will provide incentives to encourage savings, responding to a question from a dental surgeon who said he was concerned Brazil might freeze deposits as Argentina did last year after defaulting on $95 billion of bonds.
``There`s nothing more sacred in a country than the worker, the self-employed, the laborer, to have a little bit left over to invest,`` Lula said, clasping his hands. ``We`re going to have a policy to provide incentives to encourage people`s savings because we need money.`` Savings have declined to 17 percent of gross domestic product from 23 percent in the late 1980s, he said.
Brazil`s bonds, stocks and currency extended a week of gains yesterday on investor expectations Lula will name an economic team committed to policies aimed at avoiding a debt default. During the debate, nobody asked questions about Brazil`s debt load, which tripled under the current administration of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Lula, whose Workers` Party in the past has called for renegotiation of the debt, said the Brazilian economy is ``very vulnerable`` and pledged to help revive growth.
Recover Trust
``We have to recover the reliability, the trust in Brazil,`` Lula said. ``People will see that Brazil is taken seriously.``
Lula said he aims to spend more on social services and to increase security at Brazil`s borders to stem drug trafficking. He said he would finance his plan through higher tax revenue and economic growth, while ensuring that he doesn`t spark inflation.
``We`re really going to fight this very seriously,`` Lula said ``The government is going to spend what it can.``
The two candidates, both wearing dark, three-button suits and red ties, agreed on one issue -- that Brazil`s currency is undervalued.
Serra said he`s convinced the dollar will begin to fall against the Brazilian real.
``It`s terrible to invest in dollars, which today has a false price,`` Serra said. ``If anyone thinks the dollar is a good investment, he`s wrong.``
(serra wird wohl verlieren, aber allein die Aussage...)
What will Lula do?
Oct 24th 2002
From The Economist Global Agenda
With the final round of Brazil’s presidential election fast approaching, the result seems a foregone conclusion. Attention is turning to what the new president will do
AP
Ready to lead
HOME and dry. Barring a spectacular upset, the man Brazilians know simply as Lula looks set for an overwhelming victory in the presidential election. All the opinion polls show that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva should pick up about twice as many votes as Jose Serra in the final, decisive round of the election on October 27th. Since the first round of voting on October 6th, Mr da Silva has consolidated and extended his lead. After four attempts, the presidency will soon be his.
The big question is what will Mr da Silva do with his victory? He will immediately find himself pulled two ways: in one direction by the voters attracted by his electoral promises and in the other by investors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who are concerned about the implications of some of his campaign pledges and who will expect an early demonstration of Mr da Silva’s commitment to prudent economic management. He has already toned down his socialistic rhetoric during the campaign, but the financial markets remain extremely nervous about his intentions in government.
In common with many other newly-elected left-wing leaders, Mr da Silva will find his room for manoeuvre limited. Given the scale of market anxiety—which has, on occasion, come close to panic—he should not be surprised by this. But even experienced hands can be taken aback by the power of hostile financial markets and the harsh judgements they can impose.
All calm as Brazil prepares for historic election
(Forbes) Sat 17:05 GMT
All calm as Brazil prepares for historic election
(iWon) Sat 16:40 GMT
Lula by a mile, says Brazil`s press
(BBC) Sat 15:31 GMT
Ipca sets up 100% arm in Brazil
(Business Standard India) Sat 14:06 GMT
New Lula, new Brazil
(Oneworld) Sat 14:01 GMT
more...
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Brazil`s election
Oct 7th 2002
The challenge facing Brazil`s Lula
Oct 3rd 2002
Brazil`s presidential election
Oct 3rd 2002
Emerging markets
Sep 30th 2002
Brazil`s financial markets take fright
Sep 26th 2002
Brazil for Lula?
Sep 19th 2002
Brazil`s debt and its election
Jun 13th 2002
Brazil
Brazil`s central bank and its finance ministry post information on the country`s economy. See also the IMF. The Institute for International Economics publishes papers and policy briefs on Brazil.
APEC summit Oct 25th 2002
The EU’s Brussels summit Oct 25th 2002
European merger policy Oct 25th 2002
Iraq Oct 25th 2002
America’s economy Oct 24th 2002
About Global Agenda
Many of Mr da Silva’s policy intentions are still rather vague. But he has made commitments which he will be expected to fulfil quickly. And although the election victor will not take office straightaway—the outgoing president remains in office until the end of the year—how Mr da Silva handles the transition will be of critical importance in determining whether Brazil is heading for a full-blown economic crisis.
The big problem that worries investors and the IMF is Brazil’s large public debt burden, now around $250 billion. Buoyant growth in recent years might have made this debt seem manageable: sluggish economic performance has pushed it up as a share of GDP to the point where some economists believe it has become unsustainable. The steep plunge in the real and the sharp rise in interest rates—up by 3 percentage points on October 14th, for instance—have made the debt position even more precarious.
Mr da Silva is well aware that it was the prospect of his victory which initially unnerved the markets. He has gradually been forced to be more explicit about what he is willing to do to underpin the economy. A few months ago, he promised to stick with fiscally prudent policies. Last week, his campaign confirmed that, if necessary, Mr da Silva would be ready to tighten policy, to run a larger primary budget surplus (before interest payments are taken into account) in order to ensure Brazil can meet its debt obligations.
But there are few areas where Mr da Silva has been so specific. And even when he has said more it can still give people the jitters. In one case he said he will not keep Arminio Fraga, the widely respected governor of the Central Bank, in his job. That gave people yet one more reason to worry.
In choosing his transition team, and the members of his new government, Mr da Silva will be under pressure to make his policy intentions much clearer. Kenneth Rogoff, the IMF’s chief economist, has called for the appointment of a strong economic team “who can assure markets that their policies will be sensible”. Mr da Silva needs to persuade investors that he is not abandoning economic reforms.
That could buy Mr da Silva time, though some economists are sceptical that anything short of a full-scale debt restructuring can solve Brazil’s longer-term economic problems. Optimists are already suggesting that the markets are becoming more reconciled to a Lula government and point to recent rises in share prices to support their view. At best, though, such a rally will only be sustained if Mr da Silva says and does the right things. At worse, the latest rise is little more than a “dead-cat-bounce”—a short-lived recovery, sparked off partly by investors looking for bargains.
But suppose Mr da Silva is able quickly to calm the markets by choosing respected economic policymakers for his government and by setting out in detail how he plans to manage the economy once he takes office. That would present him with a longer-term political dilemma. It is only by trimming some of his promises—to raise the minimum wage, to spend more on social programmes—that he might be able to assuage market fears. Yet it is policies in these areas which are, at least in part, what has swung votes towards him. Failure to deliver on these promises could harm him when he seeks another term.
Oct 24th 2002
From The Economist Global Agenda
With the final round of Brazil’s presidential election fast approaching, the result seems a foregone conclusion. Attention is turning to what the new president will do
AP
Ready to lead
HOME and dry. Barring a spectacular upset, the man Brazilians know simply as Lula looks set for an overwhelming victory in the presidential election. All the opinion polls show that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva should pick up about twice as many votes as Jose Serra in the final, decisive round of the election on October 27th. Since the first round of voting on October 6th, Mr da Silva has consolidated and extended his lead. After four attempts, the presidency will soon be his.
The big question is what will Mr da Silva do with his victory? He will immediately find himself pulled two ways: in one direction by the voters attracted by his electoral promises and in the other by investors and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who are concerned about the implications of some of his campaign pledges and who will expect an early demonstration of Mr da Silva’s commitment to prudent economic management. He has already toned down his socialistic rhetoric during the campaign, but the financial markets remain extremely nervous about his intentions in government.
In common with many other newly-elected left-wing leaders, Mr da Silva will find his room for manoeuvre limited. Given the scale of market anxiety—which has, on occasion, come close to panic—he should not be surprised by this. But even experienced hands can be taken aback by the power of hostile financial markets and the harsh judgements they can impose.
All calm as Brazil prepares for historic election
(Forbes) Sat 17:05 GMT
All calm as Brazil prepares for historic election
(iWon) Sat 16:40 GMT
Lula by a mile, says Brazil`s press
(BBC) Sat 15:31 GMT
Ipca sets up 100% arm in Brazil
(Business Standard India) Sat 14:06 GMT
New Lula, new Brazil
(Oneworld) Sat 14:01 GMT
more...
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Brazil`s election
Oct 7th 2002
The challenge facing Brazil`s Lula
Oct 3rd 2002
Brazil`s presidential election
Oct 3rd 2002
Emerging markets
Sep 30th 2002
Brazil`s financial markets take fright
Sep 26th 2002
Brazil for Lula?
Sep 19th 2002
Brazil`s debt and its election
Jun 13th 2002
Brazil
Brazil`s central bank and its finance ministry post information on the country`s economy. See also the IMF. The Institute for International Economics publishes papers and policy briefs on Brazil.
APEC summit Oct 25th 2002
The EU’s Brussels summit Oct 25th 2002
European merger policy Oct 25th 2002
Iraq Oct 25th 2002
America’s economy Oct 24th 2002
About Global Agenda
Many of Mr da Silva’s policy intentions are still rather vague. But he has made commitments which he will be expected to fulfil quickly. And although the election victor will not take office straightaway—the outgoing president remains in office until the end of the year—how Mr da Silva handles the transition will be of critical importance in determining whether Brazil is heading for a full-blown economic crisis.
The big problem that worries investors and the IMF is Brazil’s large public debt burden, now around $250 billion. Buoyant growth in recent years might have made this debt seem manageable: sluggish economic performance has pushed it up as a share of GDP to the point where some economists believe it has become unsustainable. The steep plunge in the real and the sharp rise in interest rates—up by 3 percentage points on October 14th, for instance—have made the debt position even more precarious.
Mr da Silva is well aware that it was the prospect of his victory which initially unnerved the markets. He has gradually been forced to be more explicit about what he is willing to do to underpin the economy. A few months ago, he promised to stick with fiscally prudent policies. Last week, his campaign confirmed that, if necessary, Mr da Silva would be ready to tighten policy, to run a larger primary budget surplus (before interest payments are taken into account) in order to ensure Brazil can meet its debt obligations.
But there are few areas where Mr da Silva has been so specific. And even when he has said more it can still give people the jitters. In one case he said he will not keep Arminio Fraga, the widely respected governor of the Central Bank, in his job. That gave people yet one more reason to worry.
In choosing his transition team, and the members of his new government, Mr da Silva will be under pressure to make his policy intentions much clearer. Kenneth Rogoff, the IMF’s chief economist, has called for the appointment of a strong economic team “who can assure markets that their policies will be sensible”. Mr da Silva needs to persuade investors that he is not abandoning economic reforms.
That could buy Mr da Silva time, though some economists are sceptical that anything short of a full-scale debt restructuring can solve Brazil’s longer-term economic problems. Optimists are already suggesting that the markets are becoming more reconciled to a Lula government and point to recent rises in share prices to support their view. At best, though, such a rally will only be sustained if Mr da Silva says and does the right things. At worse, the latest rise is little more than a “dead-cat-bounce”—a short-lived recovery, sparked off partly by investors looking for bargains.
But suppose Mr da Silva is able quickly to calm the markets by choosing respected economic policymakers for his government and by setting out in detail how he plans to manage the economy once he takes office. That would present him with a longer-term political dilemma. It is only by trimming some of his promises—to raise the minimum wage, to spend more on social programmes—that he might be able to assuage market fears. Yet it is policies in these areas which are, at least in part, what has swung votes towards him. Failure to deliver on these promises could harm him when he seeks another term.
Der Real muß weiter an Stärke zunehmen, sonst sieht`s noch düsterer aus in Brazil. Im Moment ist die Rückkehr zum Real einer der Gründe, warum der Dollar schwächelt.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…
Jetzt plant Lula eine gemeinsame Südamerika-Währung:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Top%20S…
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