USA erwarten 45 % Anstieg bei HEIZOEL und 20 % bei GAS PREIS diesen Winter ! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[M_B_S]

EIA sees US Winter fuel bills +19% for Gas,+45% heat oil

PETROLEUMWORLD
Caracas, Oct 7


DJ-U.S. households are likely to see heating fuel bills in the 2002-03 winter increase 19% for natural gas and 45% for heating oil as a result of colder weather, a stronger economy and higher crude oil prices.

The projection comes from the Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration, which released its winter fuels outlook Monday.

While natural gas storage levels are ample and above normal going into the winter heating season, sharp increases in gas demand are likely because of expected colder weather compared with unusually warm temperatures last winter, the EIA said. Natural gas demand is likely to rise 18% this winter, it said.

"Moreover while severe price spikes are not likely, the prospect of continued strong demand in the industrial and power sectors of the economy should lend support to spot natural gas prices," the report says.

The agency forecasts wellhead gas prices will average about $3.34 per thousand cubic feet, or Mcf, this winter (October through March), up 90 cents from last winter, attributing September prices of around $4.00/Mcf to temporary storm-induced supply cuts. It expects the wellhead gas price to average $3.25/Mcf for 2003 as a whole, up 42 cents from this year.

The EIA says heating oil inventories are slipping toward relatively low seasonal levels, posing "a strong upward price risk near midwinter if weather turns colder than normal." The agency projects consumers will pay 25 cents more for retail heating oil this winter at about $1.35 a gallon.

Sees 1st Big US Demand Growth In 3 Yrs


The EIA forecast says natural gas prices this winter are likely to drop from September`s highs due in part to ample gas inventories. Inventories at the end of September were estimated at 3.06 trillion cubic feet, with available in-storage gas 5% above a year earlier and 12% higher than the five-year average for that time of year.

The agency says oil prices and the state of the economy could influence natural gas prices in the months ahead, as gas and oil are to some extent substitutes for one another and the industrial sector is a major gas consumer.

Despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries` decision last month to leave supply quotas unchanged, the EIA expects the oil-exporter group`s supply to increase during the fourth quarter to prevent prices for its reference basket of crudes from rising above OPEC`s own targeted range of $22-$28 a barrel.

The OPEC basket price averaged $27.50/bbl in September, and oil prices have been rising amid fears of war with Iraq. But on a monthly average basis, the EIA expects the basket price won`t exceed $28/bbl through 2003.

The EIA report doesn`t speculate on the outcome of tensions among the U.S., the U.N. Security Council and non-active OPEC member Iraq, saying only the situation in Iraq will continue to influence production growth from OPEC`s ten other members during 2003.

The "OPEC ten`s" production increases next year "likely will be limited to a few hundred thousand barrels per day," suggesting continued tightness and relatively high crude prices through 2003, it says.

U.S. imported crude prices are expected to rise to $27.47 a barrel next year from $24.43 this year and $22.01 last year.

The EIA projects overall OPEC supply at 29.2 million b/d in 2003 compared with 28.0 million b/d this year and 30.1 million b/d last year.

Other factors influencing OPEC`s behavior will be growing world oil demand, driven largely by expected 3% growth in the U.S. economy in 2003. About half of the 1.2 million barrels a day of expected world demand growth next year would be from the U.S., with most of the remainder from China and other developing countries.

Non-OPEC producers such as Russia and other Caspian countries, West African countries, Mexico and Canada are expected to supply most of the additional oil next year. The EIA has revised upward its previous world oil supply forecast by 300,000 b/d for this year and next to 75.9 million b/d and 78.1 million b/d, respectively.

U.S. oil demand is expected to jump 520,000 b/d to 19.93 million b/d in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year ago. Tracking stronger economic growth after the recession of 2001, average U.S. demand for 2003 is expected to rise 590,000 on the year to 20.3 million b/d, marking its first substantial increase in three years.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise about 1.2% this year to 5.87 million b/d and decline 1.7% next year.

On the web: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/steo.html

By Campion Walsh, Dow Jones Newswires;[e-mail]

WASHINGTON
Dow Jones News 07-10-02 1350GMT

[andreashunger]

Da wird der anderweitige Konsum wohl drunter leiden. Danke für den Beitrag!

[pcy]

Tja, da haben die Amies aber wieder das Nachsehen, wenn es um die Vergabe der Förderrechte des 2 grössten Ölfeldes der Welt geht(oder grösstes?)
Die Franzosen (elf) und andere Nationen waren da einfühlsamer. Unschlagbar günstig ist die Förderung der Irakischen Ölfelder auch noch. Sagenhafte 1 Dollar kostet die Produktion von 1 Barrel Erdöl im Irak. In Saudi Arabien kostet es schon 2 Dollar und in den USA teure 12 Dollar.
Kein Wunder das man da aus der HAut gerät wenn man da aussgeschlossen wird ...Na ja, aber es geht ja hier um die Entwicklung von Chemie-, Bio- und Atomwaffen durch Saddam.

und tschüss

[jaujau]

Wir werden erfrieren

[herbststurm]

meine öltanks sind voll und mein kamin brennt und mein holzvorrat ist auch nicht schlecht, also ist mir das sowas von scheissegal!

[pcy]

#4...kein Angst, ist noch genug Brennholz da...

Der Ölpreis sinkt wieder unter 20 Dollar...
Kann aber noch ein Weilchen dauern.

[Lucio_Fulci]

Ist es sinnvoll, jetzt nochmal den Öltank vollzumachen?

[farniente]

Na und ?

Die Rot/Grünen Kommunisten haben es geschafft den Dieselpreis in 4 Jahren um 75 % steigen zu lassen.

[Leo6]

#8
nur 75 % da kann man noch was nachlegen. die verpesten sowieso am schlimmsten die umwelt.

[farniente]

Keine Sorge Leo6

spätestens wenn der finanzielle Kollaps vor der Tür steht kommen sie wieder die verhinderten Umweltschützer. Die angestrebten 5.- DM pro/L dürfte ja noch aktuell sein.

Ich hoffe daß Du noch genügend Sprit im Tank hast um als Leo I. als Gastarbeiter ins Ausland zu fahren.

[Performancebomber]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[M_B_S]

US Heizoel Rekord Niveau von 2000 getoppt !

[M_B_S]

[M_B_S]

The Department of energy reported Wednesday that inventories of heating oil
declined by 11% to 42.5 million barrels last week, as demand for the product
soared to a record 4.9 million barrels a day.

(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

[M_B_S]

Winter, war threat boost oil, gas prices


LOS ANGELES, Feb 07, 2003 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Energy
prices will remain on the high side for the near future as cold winter weather
boosts natural gas demand at the same time world tensions keep the oil markets
on edge, analysts predicted Friday.

The gloomy forecast from the Energy Information Administration appeared to be on
the right track Friday as the New York Mercantile Exchange saw crude prices top
$35 per barrel while heating oil futures surged to the highest level in two
years.

The reasons for the bullishness, which the EIA expected to continue through the
winter, boiled down to fears of a war in the Gulf interrupting imports and
colder weather in the Midwest and along the East Coast cutting further into
reserves of heating oil and gas.

Although there has been no actual shortage of oil thus far, the sentiment among
traders is to prudently make certain they don`t get caught short if the United
States and Iraq come to blows in the Gulf at the same time Venezuela`s oil
industry is handcuffed by ongoing labor and political problems.

"World oil markets will likely remain tight through most of 2003, as petroleum
inventories and global spare production capacity continue to dwindle amid blasts
of cold weather and constrained output from Venezuela," the EIA concluded.
"OPEC`s efforts to increase output to make up for lower Venezuela output has
reduced global spare production capacity to only 2 million barrels per day,
leaving little room to make up for unexpected supply or demand surprises."

The desire to stock up on oil appeared to become more intense Friday as prices
jumped in all NYMEX sectors. NYMEX saw March heating oil climb Friday to a
23-month high of $1.113 per gallon before settling at $1.095, up an impressive
6.86 cents on the day.

March crude climbed 96 cents to $35.12 per barrel on NYMEX after the
International Petroleum Exchange in London posted a 90-cent gain to $32.34 per
barrel.

Other NYMEX prices included March gasoline, up 3.87 cents at $1.067 per gallon,
and natural gas jumping 21.5 cents to $6.043 per million BTU.

The increases came as the EIA estimated that natural gas demand this winter
would be 8 percent higher than last year while gas in storage has been running
17 percent under the 5-year average.

"By the end of this January, working gas in storage was about 35 percent lower
than at the end of January 2002 and 17 percent below the previous 5-year
average," the EIA said. "Considering not only the currently high world oil
prices but also the low storage levels, natural gas prices are likely to remain
relatively high through February and perhaps well into spring."

The demand for oil was projected to increase 3 percent over the next two years
on the assumption that the nation`s economy will grow and increased air travel
will boost demand for jet fuel.

"Spot prices for heating fuels surged as crude oil and natural gas prices rose
rapidly in the face of the Venezuelan oil export cutoff and sharply falling
levels of domestic natural gas in storage," the EIA said. "Some of these
commodity price changes are still working their way to the consumer level."

The prospect of higher retail heating oil prices in the Northeast prompted a
consumer group to ask the state of New York on Friday to investigate possible
price manipulation, stating that the lack of a physical shortage of oil
undermines the justification for higher prices.

"It looks to us as though there are a few large players in the market that are
using the anxiety over Iraq to create an artificial shortage in the New York
region," accused Tim Irving, executive director of HEAT USA. "If a few big
sellers are able to keep their oil from reaching the market, even for a few
days, they can foster anxiety, and sell into that fear at a huge profit."

The Pacific Northwest Bonneville Power Administration said Friday that it would
seek a rate increase for the hydroelectric electricity it produces, due not only
to cold temperatures but also due to a lack of seasonal rains.

"We held off proposing higher rates as long as we could, hoping that water and
economic conditions would improve," explained BPA Administrator Steve Wright.
"Neither has happened. We have had some success with cost management, but much
more needs to be done."


By HIL ANDERSON, UPI Chief Energy Correspondent


Copyright 2003 by United Press International.

[M_B_S]

Oil, gasoline prices soar with threat of war, cold

By H. Josef Hebert
The Associated Press






E-mail this article

Print this article

Search web archive


Related stories

Energy-sector profits heat up





WASHINGTON — Prices for heating oil and gasoline are soaring and likely to keep rising as energy markets cope with a colder than expected winter, the loss of Venezuela`s production and worries about war with Iraq.

A deep freeze in the Northeast caused heating-oil prices to spike by 20 percent last week.

The Energy Department, citing low stocks — as well as higher natural-gas prices — said heating bills could be 50 percent higher this year than last winter.

Consumers are getting hit at the gasoline pumps as well.

Nationally, gasoline prices increased for the ninth straight week to an average of $1.60 a gallon for regular grades, 50 cents a gallon higher than a year ago, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.

Many parts of the country have seen price increases of 20 cents a gallon in recent weeks.

Crude oil on Friday moved above $35 a barrel, the highest it has been in two years. Government analysts forecast that prices probably will stay above $30 a barrel this year, even if a war is avoided in Iraq.

Although OPEC oil producers have boosted production, they have yet to make up the oil lost to political unrest in Venezuela.

Crude inventories fell "well below the low end of the normal range" at the end of January, said the Energy Department.

With high crude prices and some shortages, refiners scaled back operations, choosing to perform normal maintenance a few weeks early, some analysts said.

That has caused suppliers to draw heavily on heating-oil stockpiles, causing prices to jump.

On Friday, wholesale heating-oil prices on the New York exchange soared to $1.20 a gallon, a jump of 30 cents from a week earlier.

After a New Hampshire terminal couldn`t get heating oil for four days, Jack Sullivan, chief executive of the New England Fuel Institute, warned in a letter to the Energy Department of "a supply and pricing crisis" if more heating oil isn`t made available.

"The demand is extraordinary. It`s absolutely horrific," Sullivan said. His organization, which represents 1,000 heating-oil companies, urged the government to release stocks from an emergency heating-oil stockpile.

No decision on such a release has been made.

Economists say the supply crunch and price spiral stem from a variety of factors, especially unease over war with Iraq and the possibility that Kuwaiti and Saudi production could be disrupted.

"The dramatic price rise we`ve seen in the last couple of weeks is primarily associated with fear about war in Iraq, the disruption of oil exports from Venezuela and extremely cold weather," said Kyle Cooper, an energy analyst for Smith Barney.

Heating-oil stocks in the Northeast are 35 percent below the 10-year average, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Gasoline stocks, while still at comfortable levels, fell 3.4 million barrels last week, the government said.

If the cold winter persists, refiners will need to keep up the heating-oil supply and postpone their push to making gasoline.

If so, gasoline inventories may not recover, leading to higher gas prices this spring and summer, analysts said.

"Oil markets now are as tight as a fully stretched rubber band," said an Energy Department analysis. "Whether the rubber band breaks or not will largely depend on the pace of demand in coming weeks."


Copyright © 2003 The Seattle Times Company

"Oil markets now are as tight as a fully stretched rubber band," said an Energy Department analysis. "Whether the rubber band breaks or not will largely depend on the pace of demand in coming weeks."

[StellaLuna]

Welt am Sonntag vom 9.2.03
„...Die russische Öl-Story ist noch nicht zu Ende; ganz im Gegenteil, sie steht erst ganz am Anfang" sagt Thies Ziemke, Vorstand der seit 4. November 2002 börsennotierten deutschen Beteiligungsgesellschaft KREMLIN AG. Ziemke setzt weiterhin auf unterbewertete Rohstoffaktien aus Russland.
Im Falle eines Irak-Krieges - so die neue Bush-Doktrin - sollen die amerikanischen Öl-Vorräte neuerdings auch mit russischem Öl aufgefüllt werden. Yukos hatte schon im letzten Jahr die ersten Tanker mit russischem Öl gen Übersee geschickt, und LUKoil hat bereits eine Dependance in Hamburg aufgemacht, um von dort aus Tanker in die USA und die ganze Welt zu verschiffen. LUKoil hat auf der anderen Seite vor kurzem einen Dämpfer von der irakischen Regierung bekommen, indem ein 1997 abgeschlossener Vertrag über die Ausbeutung des Ölfeldes Qurna mit einem Investitionsvolumen von 3,7 Milliarden US-Dollar

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/02/09/40141.html?search=%D6l&se…


Erfrieren werden nur die Obdachlosen!

[M_B_S]

Winter Chaos in den USA heftigster Blizzard über Washington seit 1922 50 cm Neuschnee ! -10 bis -20 c°



Rechne mit einem Oelpreis über 40 $ Ende diese Woche !







Tja, leute zieht euch warm an bald bleibt der Wagen in der Garage : Akuter Benzinmangel

Der Irak Krieg kommt !

[M_B_S]

dazu Spiegel.de

SCHNEEKATASTROPHE

Notstand in Washington

Es sind angeblich die schwersten Schneestürme an der US-Ostküste seit Menschengedenken. In der Hauptstadt Washington und im Bundesstaat Maryland wurde der Notstand ausgerufen. Innerhalb einer Stunde fiel dort mehr als ein halber Meter Schnee.


AP

Einsatz am Flughafen Baltimore-Washington: Der schlimmste Schneesturm seit 80 Jahren


Washington - In Maryland, das am stärksten von der Katastrophe betroffen ist, wurden am Abend Schneehöhen von knapp einem Meter gemessen. Die Bürger wurden aufgerufen, ihre Autos stehen zu lassen, um Schneepflüge nicht zu behindern. Die Sturmfront erreichte inzwischen auch New York und den Bundesstaat New Jersey. Nach Voraussagen der Meteorologen müssen sich die Menschen hier auf die heftigsten Schneefälle seit rund 80 Jahren einstellen.
Präsident George W. Bush musste wegen der sich ständig verschlechternden Wetterbedingungen früher als geplant von seinem Wochenendaufenthalt in Camp David (US-Staat Maryland) nach Washington zurückkehren. Er kam mit dem Auto, da die schlechten Sichtverhältnisse den üblichen Hubschrauberflug zu gefährlich machten.

Eine Ende des Schneechaos ist vorerst nicht in Sicht: Wetterexperten erwarteten ein Nachlassen des Flockenwirbels frühestens am Montagvormittag. Damit wurden auch für Washington Schneehöhen von bis zu einem Meter erwartet.

Bereits am Sonntag hatte Washington weitgehend einer Geisterstadt geglichen. Schneepflüge und Räumungsmannschaften kamen trotz massiven Einsatzes nicht gegen den Schnee an. Zwei der drei Hauptflughäfen in der Region mussten ganz schließen, der dritte Airport konnte nur noch eine Start- und Landebahn offen halten.

Anders als an "normalen" Sonntagen blieben die meisten Geschäfte und Einkaufszentren sowie Museen geschlossen. Schulen und Universitäten im Großraum Washington sagten bis Dienstag alle Aktivitäten ab. Busse verkehrten nur noch auf den Hauptstraßen, im U-Bahnnetz gab es stundenlange Verzögerungen.

Ein Verkehrschaos wurde dennoch für den Montag nicht erwartet. Dann wird in den USA nämlich mit dem Presidents` Day ein Feiertag begangen: Behörden und Schulen haben geschlossen.


Presidents Day : Heute wohl eher ein Trauertag

[M_B_S]

Extrem hohe Heizölnachfrage in den USA !
Massiver Kälteeinbruch im Nordosten der USA, mit den schwersten Schneestürmen seit 10 Jahren, führen zu höherer Nachfrage bei knappen Beständen.
US-Ölfirmen kaufen derzeit sehr viele Ölfrachten auf dem europäischen Ölmarkt hinzu!tecson