Marktguru Robert Prechter jr. sieht den DOW bei *****4000 Punkten!!!!!***** - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[CHAPTER7]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021020/column_profile_1.html




Reuters
Prechter Sees Bear Market Deepening
Sunday October 20, 4:24 pm ET
By Haitham Haddadin


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Losing sleep worrying about your battered stock portfolio? Read market guru Robert Prechter Jr.`s recently published book "Conquer the Crash," and you`ll instantly feel better. Well, sort of.
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The technical analyst once dubbed "guru of the decade" for calling the bull run of the 1980s, is back with a vengeance.

Prechter, 53, now paints an almost apocalyptic future for Wall Street. His vision makes a cub of the three-year bear market that so far consumed $8 trillion in investor wealth.

The good news? It`s not too late to get out, says the Ivy League-grad technical analyst, who heads Elliott Wave International, a Georgia-based forecasting firm that covers global financial markets.

He has previously gone out on a limb with bold and incisive calls, such as warning of the 1987 market crash. But he missed out big by turning bearish in 1995, while the bulls staged their big stampede.

Now, in no uncertain terms, Prechter proclaims the demise of equities, not the rebound Wall Street is looking for.

"Over five years we get the biggest bear market, soaring unemployment, a big depression ... but then it`s over," he told Reuters in a interview. "Then we go up for 20 years."

ROCK N` ROLL

Prechter`s "rebel" streak has roots in his days as a rock n` roll drummer and guitarist. From the late 1960s to the late `90s, he provided the beat on Top 40 hard rock and classic rock songs.

"A lot of technicians, it turns out, are musicians," says Prechter, who played drums on one 1970s version of "Some Guys Have All The Luck," which was a Rod Stewart hit in the `80s.

"The ones that are musicians tend to be more independent," adds Prechter, who uses the Elliott Waves method of technical analysis, or making market calls by analyzing price charts.

The basic tenet of the Elliott Wave, developed by R.N. Elliott in the late 1930s, is that major market trends are divided into five waves: an up wave followed by a down wave, then a major up wave followed by another decliner, with the cycle then typically completed by a smaller fifth wave.

Prechter first heard of Elliott`s analyzes as a student at Yale in the late 1960s before adapting it into his own methodology. He says the bull market top in 2000 completes a major up fifth wave. That`s why stocks will be in an extended bear market that could last for another four years, he says.

DOW NEAR 4,000

While many on Wall Street see a market rebound, Prechter warns of a coming deflationary depression deeper than the 1930s Great Depression that followed the market crash of 1929.

The blue chip Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News), Prechter thinks, will sink to about 4,000 within the next six months, and ultimately to below 1,000 before the bear market is over. The first plunge would require halving the index from its Tuesday levels above 8,000, vs. an all-time high at 11,722 reached in January 2000.

"There will not be any value (at Dow 5,000)," Prechter told Reuters. "Even if earnings don`t deteriorate, stocks will not be cheap in dividend terms, earnings terms, in book (value) terms."

Prechter`s views are in the minority. Still, investors burned by the nasty bear market grinding on since early 2000 seem to have taken note: As the Dow sank, sales rose for Prechter`s book, which hit the No. 1 spot on Amazon.com.

Now that stocks made new five-year lows, the economic reports will show a weaker economy because the economy lags the stock market, Prechter says, arguing the bear case.

Also, just as bull runs overshoot on the upside, bears go to extremes on the downside, he concluded after studying bubbles from the Dutch Tulip Mania of 1634-37 to 1980s Japan.

The crushing corporate and individual debt levels are also to blame. In the 1929-32 bear market, the Dow plunged 89 percent and debt levels were very high. Now credit has been built through 20 years to record levels, so it`s within the realm of possibility to have a decline of such proportions.

Because of the looming deflation, now in its early stages, he urges avoiding most asset classes -- stocks, bonds, gold -- in favor of cash as the price of goods will be falling. But he recommends a move into safe Swiss bonds for those who afford it, and putting money in "safe banks" listed in his book.

YALE TO MERRILL

Teenaged Prechter got interested in stocks while watching his father read technical market newsletters. He got a scholarship from Yale and in 1971, graduated with a degree in psychology. He began work as a technician for brokerage giant Merrill Lynch, where he trained under the legendary Bob Farrell.

In 1979, Prechter started Elliott Wave International. From a home business publishing a newsletter run with his wife, the firm now employs analysts that cover global stocks, foreign exchange and commodity markets 24 hours a day. The subscriber base of 40 grew to 6,000 retail investors and 600 institutions.

Those who heeded Prechter last year were rewarded. The day the market closed on Sept. 11 after the terror attacks on New York and Washington, D.C., investors fretted over the possibility of a market crash. Prechter predicted that stocks would quickly bottom, then rally strongly.

His calls over the years won him many fans.

The Elliott Wave "is the only theory that I am aware of that has correctly projected the move down in stocks from the March 2000 top," said Henry van der Eb, president of the $82-million Gabelli Mathers Fund.

Another well-known bear David Tice, president of Prudent Bear fund, who has endorsed Prechter`s book, agrees.

"He is a brilliant guy, he understands both technical analysis as well as fundamentals and how important moods are to the markets," Tice told Reuters. "I don`t think he is predisposed bearishly; he was bullish early in the 1980s."

Prechter, born near Albany, New York, grew up in Atlanta. He has two children, a boy and a girl, both about college age.

"My wife made me swear not to introduce either kid to the stock market," Prechter says, laughing. So far, so good.

[Watcher42]

Vergiß es.

Nie und nimmer.

[big_mac]

hat er 87 auch schon gesehen.
damals allerdings von unten !

[spekulump]

Andre Kostolany über die Krach von 1987

Auch Guru Robert Prechter schwenkte ins Lager der Pessimisten um. Fortan prognostizierte er einen Dows Jones von unter 1000 Punkten. Tatsächlich markierte der 19. Oktober bereits den tiefsten Stand. Es folgte die Korrektur, und da sich die Wirtschaft entgegen der Prophezeiungen der Professoren weiter nach oben entwickelte, konnten die Kurse weiter steigen und in die Phase der Begleitung durch gute Nachrichten übergehen. Und was waren das für Nachrichten? Zerfall der Sowjetunion, die deutsche Einheit und ein neues technologisches Zeitalter.

[big_mac]

spekulump,

die 4000-prognose war VOR dem 19.10.87.