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29.04.2002
Analysts Ponder Whether Dragon`s Results Will Signal A Change In Policy
When the results for Dragon Oil appear, and they are imminent, analysts expect they will show the company is on its stated course in terms of operations. But they would like to see some clarification about its long-term corporate strategy.
Over three years ago the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest to in the London and Dublin listed company. At that time Hussain Sultan, the chairman, said the group would cut its losses on interests in Asia and the Far East and concentrate entirely in the short term on its Turkmenistan assets.
Dragon`s principal asset is a 100 per cent stake in the Chelekon Contract area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea and includes two fields Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 old wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil per day. However under a clumsy joint venture with the Turkmens output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 barrels of oil a day.
The joint venture was renegotiated into a more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) which was completed in 2000. Two new wells came on stream from the Lam 22 platform and a third is has starting producing this year. Five more wells are possible from the Lam 22 platform. Production, which was 7,000 barrels of oil per day in 2000, is now thought to be around 10,000 barrels a day together with some associated gas. The company has said that by the end of this year output will be running at 15,000 barrels of oil plus some gas.
The group has also gone on the record as saying that recoverable proven and probable oil and gas reserves in the licence area have been independently assessed as 590 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of gas. On this basis production could build to 80,000 b/d within a five-year period. The associated and free gas is thought capable of sustaining a production level of 2.5 billion cubic metres a year providing a suitable long-term gas export agreement can be effected. Beyond the five year period new trunk lines, gas oil separation, oil water separation and storage space will be required.
So far so good, but the man who renegotiated the PSA and built production in the Caspian, managing director Ian Baron, has recently left the company. New directors with interests in East Europe have joined the board. In 1999 Dragon`s headquarters were moved to Dubai. The idea was this would, in the long term, facilitate taking advantages of opportunities as they arose in the Middle East region. It will be interesting to see if the chairman`s statement indicates any change of direction.
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10.05.2002
Irish Analyst Expects Great Things From Dragon Oil
When we reported recently on London and Dublin listed junior E&P company Dragon Oil we said that in terms of operations the company seemed to be on course. Now a final results statement has put some flesh on this contention and given rise to some fascinating calculations by Job Langbroek, minerals, and oil and gas analyst at Dublin`s Davy Stockbrokers.
The Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest in Dragon over three years ago. Hussain Sultan, the chairman, said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests.
Dragon`s principal asset in Turkmenistan is a 100 per cent stake in the Chelekon Contract area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 aging Soviet wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil a day (bopd). However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
The joint venture was replaced by a more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), which was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion`s share of any incremental oil. Although strapped for cash the company managed to bring two new wells into production last year from the Lam 22 platform, 101 and 102. Gross output for 2001 was 6,730 bopd). Production in 2000 was 7083 bopd. The fall was due to old Soviet wells being retired. This and poorer oil prices meant that for 2001 there was a post tax loss of US$ 5.4million. Of the average 6730 bopd for the year 2,574 bopd was attributable to Dragon.
At this point the arithmetic starts to get interesting. A third well, Lam-22 103 is about to come on stream. Three more wells from the Lam-22 are possible. Hussain Sultan has predicted output of 15,000 bopd by the end of this year. According to Langbroek, Dragon`s costs are around US$ 19million a year. But these will not increase substantially with more wells, since the infrastructure is in place, and no more staff will be necessary. Extra expense will be involved as production rises in water and gas separation but this cost, Langbroek says, will be minimal.
On the other hand, under the terms of the PSA Dragon now starts getting 85 per cent of the incremental output. Say, for arguments sake, production rises to 10,000 bopd barrels a day. That is 3,000 bopd a day extra or 1million barrels a year. Assume also that with today`s firm oil prices Dragon gets a netback of US$24 a barrel. Transport costs from the Caspian are reasonably particularly with the "swaps" in Iran. Let`s say they are around US$3.50 a barrel. A rough sum therefore suggests Dragon would get an extra 85 per cent of US$20 a barrel or US$17 a barrel some US$17m additional in a full year.
The company in other words looks to be heading towards profitability by the end of this year, and becoming very cash generative thereafter. In fact if Dragon sticks to its plans - it has talked of production of 50,000 bopd within five years - Dragon could become a cash cow even if it is true that after output of 18,000 bopd rather more investment in infrastructure would be needed than is being made at present.
One problem is that with decisions being made in Dubai, Dragon has come to be seen as rather remote despite its European listings, and investor interest seems to have faded somewhat; in London at least.
----------------------
05.09.2002
Dragon Oil Strapped For Cash As Loans Increase But Has ENOC Behind It
Well it was fun while it lasted. Dragon Oil had said it was looking for a partner or investment. The shares had done a nice cartwheel in the past month rising and falling on the basis of a possible takeover bid. Now Aurado Exploration has told the Irish Stock Exchange that, after consideration, it does not intend to make an offer for Dragon Oil, which is listed on the Dublin and London Stock Exchanges.
The Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest in Dragon over three years ago. Hussain Sultan, Dragon chairman said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests It therefore has something in common with Aurado which is listed in Canada, produces oil and natural gas in Alberta, Western Canada, but is now focused on acquiring upstream petroleum projects in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Dragon’s principal asset in Turkmenistan, one of the Caspian littoral states is a 100 per stake in the Chelekon Contract Area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 aging Soviet wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil a day (bopd). However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture, which was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion’s share of any incremental oil. Using what it calls western drilling methods, it sank Lam-22 101 and Lam 22 102 in 2001 and output rose to 6,730 bopd. This year it has drilled Lam 22-103 and has recently spudded Lam 22-104. Hussain Sultan has said the company is on course to achieve 15,000 bopd a day by the end of 2002.
Drilling costs have come down, and once Dragon gets past 10,000 barrels of oil per day it starts gaining 85 per cent of the incremental output. Against this, once production reaches 18,000 bopd a lot of investment will be needed in new infrastructure. The company could see break -even in operating terms by the end of 2002, but drilling in the Caspian is an expensive business and Dragon is clearly a bit strapped for cash.
For 2001 it made a post tax loss of US$5.4 million. During the year Dragon drew down US$14 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It also renegotiated a loan facility with Standard Chartered Bank underwritten by ENOC for US$ 45.5 million with a revision in the repayment terms to two equal instalments falling due in May and November 2002.To meet this, in the first half of this year ENOC has arranged another US$50 million loan for Dragon. The loan will be for a period of one year repayable on May 3, 2003. Also in April this year Dragon drew down a further US$11.4 million from the EBRD.
It seems a little bit like something has got to give. The company has said it is examining appropriate long-term finance opportunities. Hussain Sultan did look at ENOC taking the company over completely, but that did not work out too well. Do not discount the possibility that other companies will come sniffing around. The Caspian is highly prospective, if considered a little remote and difficult.
----------------------------
13.01.2003
Despite Drilling Successes Dragon Still Appears Strapped For Cash
There are strangely mixed signals coming from Dragon Oil. It has just announced completing the testing of well LAM 22-105, the fifth and last of a series of development wells to be drilled on the LAM 22 platform in the Chelekon block, Turkmenistan. Well LAM 22-105 tested at a cumulative rate of 9,464 barrels of oil per day from three intervals. The well is shortly to commence production from one interval at a depth of 2,464 to 2,635 metres.
The completion of this last well on LAM 22 has seen Dragon exceed its production target of 15,000 bopd by the end of 2002 having brought into production four new wells (including LAM 22-105) during that year. Yet this very successful drilling programme contrasts with another statement that Dragon is strapped for cash. Hussain Sultan, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dragon said: “Dragon has made significant achievements during 2002 including much reduced drilling and operating costs. However, the securing of further funding, which remains a priority, has yet to be achieved …It is unfortunate that having come so far and achieved so much, we are unable to capitalise on our success due to lack of funding. Therefore the continuous drilling programme will need to be deferred until the latter part of 2003.”
The latest chapter in the Dragon story began over three years ago when the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest. Hussain Sultan said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests. The principal interest is this 100 per cent licence in the Chelekon Contract Area.
This covers about about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 ageing Soviet wells was thought to be 8,500 barrels of oil a day. However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture. This was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion’s share of the incremental oil. The Lam 22 wells started in 2001. Hussain Sultan may say costs have come down, but it is still expensive to drill. The Caspian Sea is remote and landlocked. There is a shortage of rigs and service companies charge a lot. A well can be drilled for around US$5 million but it has been known to cost Dragon twice that amount. It was always appreciated that once production reached 18,000 bopd a lot of investment would be needed in new infrastructure.
For 2001 Dragon made a post- tax loss of US$5.4 million. It must surely now be cash positive, were it not for the debt. In 2001 Dragon drew down US$14 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It also renegotiated a loan facility with Standard Chartered Bank underwritten by ENOC for US$45.5 million with a revision in the payment terms to two equal instalments falling due in May and November 2002. Also in 2002 Dragon drew down a further US$11.4 million from the EBRD.
To meet the Standard Chartered debt ENOC arranged another US$50 million loan for Dragon. This is due for full payment by May 3, 2003. Hussain Sultan has said, “There has yet been no confirmation from ENOC that the repayment can be re-negotiated.”
Hussain Sultan is known to be frustrated that he has been unable to get companies to either farm- in to Dragon’s operation or find other ways to defray the costs. At one point he did look at the possibility of ENOC taking over Dragon completely but that did not work out. There have also been suggestions that ENOC would not be averse to selling its stake in Dragon. Perhaps Hussain Sultan’s warning on the debts is a coded “For Sale” sign. It is a curious situation for a company to find itself in after being so successful at drilling.
-----------------------------
29.04.2003
Dragon Oil Had A Good Year With The Drill Bit In 2002 But Latest Results Show There Are Still Funding Problems
We knew that Dragon Oil, the London and Dublin listed junior, was having a good year with the drill bit after some technical problems, but we were unclear how the company was going to continue funding its debt. The preliminary results for the year to December 31, 2002, just announced, have given an update on the company’s drilling programme in the Caspian Sea offshore Turkmenistan. They have also thrown some light on its financing plans.
Dragon changed direction three years ago when the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest. Hussain Sultan who became chairman and subsequently chief executive officer of Dragon, said the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan assets.
The principal interest is a 100 per cent licence in the Chelekon Contract Area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 ageing Soviet wells was thought to be 8,500 barrels of oil a day. However, due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture, output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture. This was completed in 2000. Under this deal Dragon had to carry the costs of the operation but gained the lion’s share of the incremental oil.
The company has been working on a number of wells from the Lam 22 platform in the Chelekon block. By the end of 2002 a total of four wells (LAM22/102-103-104-105) were drilled and completed and one - LAM 22/101 - successfully worked over. The average gross production from the Chelekon Contract Area for the year was 10,383 barrels of oil per day, with 5,778 bopd attributable to Dragon. This compares to a total gross production of 6,730 bopd in 2001, of which 2,435 bopd was attributable to Dragon. As Dragon had managed to cut costs, and prices for oil were strong, the company posted a post tax profit of US$15.5 million against a post tax loss of US$5.4 million for 2001.
The company enjoyed better cash flow in 2002. At the operating level, net cash flow was US$24.2 million against US$7.6 million in 2001. But there is the debt.
During 2002, Dragon made a further draw down of US$16.3 million from its facility with the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Also, in May 2002 the parent granted a loan of US$50 million for a period of one year to enable Dragon to meet subsidiary’s Dragon Holdings loan repayments due to Standard Chartered Bank in May and November 2002, totalling US$45.5 million. At year-end 2002 the cash balance was US$18.1 million, with total borrowings of US$88.3 million.
Hussain Sultan said of the ENOC loan, which is due for repayment on May 3, 2003, which is about right now, that there was no agreement for an extension. A couple of months back he hinted it would be a pity if the drilling programme were interrupted.
However, Dragon has now said that in line with short-term cash requirements, it has re-negotiated its position with ENOC. ENOC has agreed to provide a new loan facility of US$40 million for a period of one year that will result in a net repayment of US$10 million of the original US$50 million on May 3.
The company is optimistic about Chelekon. An independent consultant puts total recoverable proven and probable reserves at 680 million barrels of oil and condensate. In addition, the block contains contingent gross gas resources of 3.57 trillion cubic feet.
But the Caspian Sea is remote and landlocked. There is a shortage of rigs, and services companies charge a lot. A well can be drilled for around US$5 million but it has been known to cost Dragon twice that amount. It was always appreciated that once production reached 18,000 bopd, or thereabouts, a lot of investment would be needed in new infrastructure.
The company may have found funding for another year from ENOC but has also said: “Sourcing of alternative financing remains a critical and immediate priority for Dragon.”
Ideally Dragon needs a major group with deep pockets to farm-in and develop the assets. But there have been few signs of a queue forming as yet. It is a curious situation for Dragon to find itself in; plenty of oil by the looks of it, but not the wherewithal to develop it.
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http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html
Analysts Ponder Whether Dragon`s Results Will Signal A Change In Policy
When the results for Dragon Oil appear, and they are imminent, analysts expect they will show the company is on its stated course in terms of operations. But they would like to see some clarification about its long-term corporate strategy.
Over three years ago the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest to in the London and Dublin listed company. At that time Hussain Sultan, the chairman, said the group would cut its losses on interests in Asia and the Far East and concentrate entirely in the short term on its Turkmenistan assets.
Dragon`s principal asset is a 100 per cent stake in the Chelekon Contract area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea and includes two fields Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 old wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil per day. However under a clumsy joint venture with the Turkmens output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 barrels of oil a day.
The joint venture was renegotiated into a more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) which was completed in 2000. Two new wells came on stream from the Lam 22 platform and a third is has starting producing this year. Five more wells are possible from the Lam 22 platform. Production, which was 7,000 barrels of oil per day in 2000, is now thought to be around 10,000 barrels a day together with some associated gas. The company has said that by the end of this year output will be running at 15,000 barrels of oil plus some gas.
The group has also gone on the record as saying that recoverable proven and probable oil and gas reserves in the licence area have been independently assessed as 590 million barrels of oil and 3 trillion cubic feet of gas. On this basis production could build to 80,000 b/d within a five-year period. The associated and free gas is thought capable of sustaining a production level of 2.5 billion cubic metres a year providing a suitable long-term gas export agreement can be effected. Beyond the five year period new trunk lines, gas oil separation, oil water separation and storage space will be required.
So far so good, but the man who renegotiated the PSA and built production in the Caspian, managing director Ian Baron, has recently left the company. New directors with interests in East Europe have joined the board. In 1999 Dragon`s headquarters were moved to Dubai. The idea was this would, in the long term, facilitate taking advantages of opportunities as they arose in the Middle East region. It will be interesting to see if the chairman`s statement indicates any change of direction.
-----------------------
10.05.2002
Irish Analyst Expects Great Things From Dragon Oil
When we reported recently on London and Dublin listed junior E&P company Dragon Oil we said that in terms of operations the company seemed to be on course. Now a final results statement has put some flesh on this contention and given rise to some fascinating calculations by Job Langbroek, minerals, and oil and gas analyst at Dublin`s Davy Stockbrokers.
The Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest in Dragon over three years ago. Hussain Sultan, the chairman, said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests.
Dragon`s principal asset in Turkmenistan is a 100 per cent stake in the Chelekon Contract area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 aging Soviet wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil a day (bopd). However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
The joint venture was replaced by a more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), which was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion`s share of any incremental oil. Although strapped for cash the company managed to bring two new wells into production last year from the Lam 22 platform, 101 and 102. Gross output for 2001 was 6,730 bopd). Production in 2000 was 7083 bopd. The fall was due to old Soviet wells being retired. This and poorer oil prices meant that for 2001 there was a post tax loss of US$ 5.4million. Of the average 6730 bopd for the year 2,574 bopd was attributable to Dragon.
At this point the arithmetic starts to get interesting. A third well, Lam-22 103 is about to come on stream. Three more wells from the Lam-22 are possible. Hussain Sultan has predicted output of 15,000 bopd by the end of this year. According to Langbroek, Dragon`s costs are around US$ 19million a year. But these will not increase substantially with more wells, since the infrastructure is in place, and no more staff will be necessary. Extra expense will be involved as production rises in water and gas separation but this cost, Langbroek says, will be minimal.
On the other hand, under the terms of the PSA Dragon now starts getting 85 per cent of the incremental output. Say, for arguments sake, production rises to 10,000 bopd barrels a day. That is 3,000 bopd a day extra or 1million barrels a year. Assume also that with today`s firm oil prices Dragon gets a netback of US$24 a barrel. Transport costs from the Caspian are reasonably particularly with the "swaps" in Iran. Let`s say they are around US$3.50 a barrel. A rough sum therefore suggests Dragon would get an extra 85 per cent of US$20 a barrel or US$17 a barrel some US$17m additional in a full year.
The company in other words looks to be heading towards profitability by the end of this year, and becoming very cash generative thereafter. In fact if Dragon sticks to its plans - it has talked of production of 50,000 bopd within five years - Dragon could become a cash cow even if it is true that after output of 18,000 bopd rather more investment in infrastructure would be needed than is being made at present.
One problem is that with decisions being made in Dubai, Dragon has come to be seen as rather remote despite its European listings, and investor interest seems to have faded somewhat; in London at least.
----------------------
05.09.2002
Dragon Oil Strapped For Cash As Loans Increase But Has ENOC Behind It
Well it was fun while it lasted. Dragon Oil had said it was looking for a partner or investment. The shares had done a nice cartwheel in the past month rising and falling on the basis of a possible takeover bid. Now Aurado Exploration has told the Irish Stock Exchange that, after consideration, it does not intend to make an offer for Dragon Oil, which is listed on the Dublin and London Stock Exchanges.
The Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest in Dragon over three years ago. Hussain Sultan, Dragon chairman said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests It therefore has something in common with Aurado which is listed in Canada, produces oil and natural gas in Alberta, Western Canada, but is now focused on acquiring upstream petroleum projects in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Dragon’s principal asset in Turkmenistan, one of the Caspian littoral states is a 100 per stake in the Chelekon Contract Area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 aging Soviet wells was thought to be around 8,500 barrels of oil a day (bopd). However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture, which was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion’s share of any incremental oil. Using what it calls western drilling methods, it sank Lam-22 101 and Lam 22 102 in 2001 and output rose to 6,730 bopd. This year it has drilled Lam 22-103 and has recently spudded Lam 22-104. Hussain Sultan has said the company is on course to achieve 15,000 bopd a day by the end of 2002.
Drilling costs have come down, and once Dragon gets past 10,000 barrels of oil per day it starts gaining 85 per cent of the incremental output. Against this, once production reaches 18,000 bopd a lot of investment will be needed in new infrastructure. The company could see break -even in operating terms by the end of 2002, but drilling in the Caspian is an expensive business and Dragon is clearly a bit strapped for cash.
For 2001 it made a post tax loss of US$5.4 million. During the year Dragon drew down US$14 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It also renegotiated a loan facility with Standard Chartered Bank underwritten by ENOC for US$ 45.5 million with a revision in the repayment terms to two equal instalments falling due in May and November 2002.To meet this, in the first half of this year ENOC has arranged another US$50 million loan for Dragon. The loan will be for a period of one year repayable on May 3, 2003. Also in April this year Dragon drew down a further US$11.4 million from the EBRD.
It seems a little bit like something has got to give. The company has said it is examining appropriate long-term finance opportunities. Hussain Sultan did look at ENOC taking the company over completely, but that did not work out too well. Do not discount the possibility that other companies will come sniffing around. The Caspian is highly prospective, if considered a little remote and difficult.
----------------------------
13.01.2003
Despite Drilling Successes Dragon Still Appears Strapped For Cash
There are strangely mixed signals coming from Dragon Oil. It has just announced completing the testing of well LAM 22-105, the fifth and last of a series of development wells to be drilled on the LAM 22 platform in the Chelekon block, Turkmenistan. Well LAM 22-105 tested at a cumulative rate of 9,464 barrels of oil per day from three intervals. The well is shortly to commence production from one interval at a depth of 2,464 to 2,635 metres.
The completion of this last well on LAM 22 has seen Dragon exceed its production target of 15,000 bopd by the end of 2002 having brought into production four new wells (including LAM 22-105) during that year. Yet this very successful drilling programme contrasts with another statement that Dragon is strapped for cash. Hussain Sultan, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dragon said: “Dragon has made significant achievements during 2002 including much reduced drilling and operating costs. However, the securing of further funding, which remains a priority, has yet to be achieved …It is unfortunate that having come so far and achieved so much, we are unable to capitalise on our success due to lack of funding. Therefore the continuous drilling programme will need to be deferred until the latter part of 2003.”
The latest chapter in the Dragon story began over three years ago when the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest. Hussain Sultan said at the time the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan interests. The principal interest is this 100 per cent licence in the Chelekon Contract Area.
This covers about about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in the 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 ageing Soviet wells was thought to be 8,500 barrels of oil a day. However due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture. This was completed in 2000. Under this Dragon has to carry the costs of the operation but gets the lion’s share of the incremental oil. The Lam 22 wells started in 2001. Hussain Sultan may say costs have come down, but it is still expensive to drill. The Caspian Sea is remote and landlocked. There is a shortage of rigs and service companies charge a lot. A well can be drilled for around US$5 million but it has been known to cost Dragon twice that amount. It was always appreciated that once production reached 18,000 bopd a lot of investment would be needed in new infrastructure.
For 2001 Dragon made a post- tax loss of US$5.4 million. It must surely now be cash positive, were it not for the debt. In 2001 Dragon drew down US$14 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It also renegotiated a loan facility with Standard Chartered Bank underwritten by ENOC for US$45.5 million with a revision in the payment terms to two equal instalments falling due in May and November 2002. Also in 2002 Dragon drew down a further US$11.4 million from the EBRD.
To meet the Standard Chartered debt ENOC arranged another US$50 million loan for Dragon. This is due for full payment by May 3, 2003. Hussain Sultan has said, “There has yet been no confirmation from ENOC that the repayment can be re-negotiated.”
Hussain Sultan is known to be frustrated that he has been unable to get companies to either farm- in to Dragon’s operation or find other ways to defray the costs. At one point he did look at the possibility of ENOC taking over Dragon completely but that did not work out. There have also been suggestions that ENOC would not be averse to selling its stake in Dragon. Perhaps Hussain Sultan’s warning on the debts is a coded “For Sale” sign. It is a curious situation for a company to find itself in after being so successful at drilling.
-----------------------------
29.04.2003
Dragon Oil Had A Good Year With The Drill Bit In 2002 But Latest Results Show There Are Still Funding Problems
We knew that Dragon Oil, the London and Dublin listed junior, was having a good year with the drill bit after some technical problems, but we were unclear how the company was going to continue funding its debt. The preliminary results for the year to December 31, 2002, just announced, have given an update on the company’s drilling programme in the Caspian Sea offshore Turkmenistan. They have also thrown some light on its financing plans.
Dragon changed direction three years ago when the Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) gained a 69.4 per cent controlling interest. Hussain Sultan who became chairman and subsequently chief executive officer of Dragon, said the group would cut its losses on projects in Russia and the Far East and concentrate on its Turkmenistan assets.
The principal interest is a 100 per cent licence in the Chelekon Contract Area. This covers about 950 square kilometres in the Caspian Sea off the Turkmen coast and includes two fields, Lam and Zhdanov, which were discovered by Soviet engineers in 1960s and 1970s. Capacity from 18 ageing Soviet wells was thought to be 8,500 barrels of oil a day. However, due to a lack of investment and a clumsy joint operating venture, output was erratic and fell at one point to 2,300 bopd.
A more orthodox Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) replaced the joint venture. This was completed in 2000. Under this deal Dragon had to carry the costs of the operation but gained the lion’s share of the incremental oil.
The company has been working on a number of wells from the Lam 22 platform in the Chelekon block. By the end of 2002 a total of four wells (LAM22/102-103-104-105) were drilled and completed and one - LAM 22/101 - successfully worked over. The average gross production from the Chelekon Contract Area for the year was 10,383 barrels of oil per day, with 5,778 bopd attributable to Dragon. This compares to a total gross production of 6,730 bopd in 2001, of which 2,435 bopd was attributable to Dragon. As Dragon had managed to cut costs, and prices for oil were strong, the company posted a post tax profit of US$15.5 million against a post tax loss of US$5.4 million for 2001.
The company enjoyed better cash flow in 2002. At the operating level, net cash flow was US$24.2 million against US$7.6 million in 2001. But there is the debt.
During 2002, Dragon made a further draw down of US$16.3 million from its facility with the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Also, in May 2002 the parent granted a loan of US$50 million for a period of one year to enable Dragon to meet subsidiary’s Dragon Holdings loan repayments due to Standard Chartered Bank in May and November 2002, totalling US$45.5 million. At year-end 2002 the cash balance was US$18.1 million, with total borrowings of US$88.3 million.
Hussain Sultan said of the ENOC loan, which is due for repayment on May 3, 2003, which is about right now, that there was no agreement for an extension. A couple of months back he hinted it would be a pity if the drilling programme were interrupted.
However, Dragon has now said that in line with short-term cash requirements, it has re-negotiated its position with ENOC. ENOC has agreed to provide a new loan facility of US$40 million for a period of one year that will result in a net repayment of US$10 million of the original US$50 million on May 3.
The company is optimistic about Chelekon. An independent consultant puts total recoverable proven and probable reserves at 680 million barrels of oil and condensate. In addition, the block contains contingent gross gas resources of 3.57 trillion cubic feet.
But the Caspian Sea is remote and landlocked. There is a shortage of rigs, and services companies charge a lot. A well can be drilled for around US$5 million but it has been known to cost Dragon twice that amount. It was always appreciated that once production reached 18,000 bopd, or thereabouts, a lot of investment would be needed in new infrastructure.
The company may have found funding for another year from ENOC but has also said: “Sourcing of alternative financing remains a critical and immediate priority for Dragon.”
Ideally Dragon needs a major group with deep pockets to farm-in and develop the assets. But there have been few signs of a queue forming as yet. It is a curious situation for Dragon to find itself in; plenty of oil by the looks of it, but not the wherewithal to develop it.
Quelle:
http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=4&d=28&tmo…
(28.4.2003)
Posts impressive 2002 results
U.K.-listed Dragon Oil plc on Friday released 2002 results that exceeded our expectations on the operating and financial fronts. Below are the highlights:
Net crude oil production up 137% y-o-y to 2.1mn bbls
Net proven and probable reserves down 1% to 642mn boe, after the latest estimates by independent consultants
Revenues soared 127% y-o-y to $51mn, EBITDA grew to $27mn, from $0.8mn in 2001, and net income came in at $15.5mn, up from a $5.4mn net loss in 2001
Dragon also managed to renegotiate a $50mn loan due on May 3, 2003, and received a new $40mn credit from ENOC, its main creditor and shareholder. Net repayment will thus be $10mn
(In $mn) 2001 2002F 2002A Change Actual/Forecast
Revenue 22.25 36.65 50.59 127% 38%
Total operating expenses (excluding depreciation) 21.63 23.85 21.06 -3% -12%
EBITDA 0.83 5.25 26.98 3138% 414%
Depreciation 2.46 5.19 6.11 149% 18%
Operating income -1.62 0.06 20.86 -1386% 33992%
Pretax income -5.43 2.85 15.52 -386% 445%
Net income -5.43 2.85 15.52 -386% 445%
EBITDA margin 4% 14% 53% 50% 39%
Operating margin -7% 0% 41% 49% 41%
Net margin -24% 8% 31% 55% 23%
Capex 38.70 28.97 31.72 -18% 9%
Operating cash flow 7.57 14.91 24.22 220% 62%
Assets 261.19 278.59 301.38 15% 8%
Equity 182.11 183.35 197.63 9% 8%
Net debt 66.74 80.64 85.68 28% 6%
Working capital (deficiency) -36.86 -36.49 -30.66 -17% -16%
Net debt / Equity 37% 44% 43% 18% -1%
Dragon Oil was one of the top picks in our March 2003 report: "Back in the USSR: New frontiers for small-cap ideas." We reiterate our Buy recommendation on the company, with a peer multiple-based fair value of $0.59 per share implying 256% upside. We note that this represents a 7% revision downward from our March report to reflect the new reserve data.
(28.4.2003)
Posts impressive 2002 results
U.K.-listed Dragon Oil plc on Friday released 2002 results that exceeded our expectations on the operating and financial fronts. Below are the highlights:
Net crude oil production up 137% y-o-y to 2.1mn bbls
Net proven and probable reserves down 1% to 642mn boe, after the latest estimates by independent consultants
Revenues soared 127% y-o-y to $51mn, EBITDA grew to $27mn, from $0.8mn in 2001, and net income came in at $15.5mn, up from a $5.4mn net loss in 2001
Dragon also managed to renegotiate a $50mn loan due on May 3, 2003, and received a new $40mn credit from ENOC, its main creditor and shareholder. Net repayment will thus be $10mn
(In $mn) 2001 2002F 2002A Change Actual/Forecast
Revenue 22.25 36.65 50.59 127% 38%
Total operating expenses (excluding depreciation) 21.63 23.85 21.06 -3% -12%
EBITDA 0.83 5.25 26.98 3138% 414%
Depreciation 2.46 5.19 6.11 149% 18%
Operating income -1.62 0.06 20.86 -1386% 33992%
Pretax income -5.43 2.85 15.52 -386% 445%
Net income -5.43 2.85 15.52 -386% 445%
EBITDA margin 4% 14% 53% 50% 39%
Operating margin -7% 0% 41% 49% 41%
Net margin -24% 8% 31% 55% 23%
Capex 38.70 28.97 31.72 -18% 9%
Operating cash flow 7.57 14.91 24.22 220% 62%
Assets 261.19 278.59 301.38 15% 8%
Equity 182.11 183.35 197.63 9% 8%
Net debt 66.74 80.64 85.68 28% 6%
Working capital (deficiency) -36.86 -36.49 -30.66 -17% -16%
Net debt / Equity 37% 44% 43% 18% -1%
Dragon Oil was one of the top picks in our March 2003 report: "Back in the USSR: New frontiers for small-cap ideas." We reiterate our Buy recommendation on the company, with a peer multiple-based fair value of $0.59 per share implying 256% upside. We note that this represents a 7% revision downward from our March report to reflect the new reserve data.
Daten und Nachrichten
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/market/Fundamentals.asp?EPIC…
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/mdata/summary.aspx?Epic=dgo
akt. Kurs
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dgo.l&d=t&m=L
Homepage
http://www.dragonoil.com/
362 Mio. shares
MktCap @10.75p = 39 mln GBP = 62 mln USD
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/market/Fundamentals.asp?EPIC…
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/mdata/summary.aspx?Epic=dgo
akt. Kurs
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dgo.l&d=t&m=L
Homepage
http://www.dragonoil.com/
362 Mio. shares
MktCap @10.75p = 39 mln GBP = 62 mln USD
Meine Meinung:
Falls Dragon Oil die Finanzierung langfristig lösen kann (ohne zuviele neue Aktien auf den Markt zu bringen) und falls die Produktionsziele erreicht werden, winken auf ein paar Jahre Sicht mehrere 100% Kursgewinn.
Falls Dragon kurzfristig von der Mutter ENOC verkauft werden sollte und die Minderheitsaktionäre hinauskomplimentiert werden, sollten mind. 100% Aufschlag drin sein.
Risiken: Ölpreisverfall, Cashbedarf, Turkmenistan
Falls Dragon Oil die Finanzierung langfristig lösen kann (ohne zuviele neue Aktien auf den Markt zu bringen) und falls die Produktionsziele erreicht werden, winken auf ein paar Jahre Sicht mehrere 100% Kursgewinn.
Falls Dragon kurzfristig von der Mutter ENOC verkauft werden sollte und die Minderheitsaktionäre hinauskomplimentiert werden, sollten mind. 100% Aufschlag drin sein.
Risiken: Ölpreisverfall, Cashbedarf, Turkmenistan
P.S.
Der Trottel, der vorhin in Berlin für 60k 0,17E bezahlt hat, während Dragon in London bei 10,75p=0,1493E im Brief notieren, war nicht ich.
Der Trottel, der vorhin in Berlin für 60k 0,17E bezahlt hat, während Dragon in London bei 10,75p=0,1493E im Brief notieren, war nicht ich.
Trading Spotlight
Und das sollte längst noch nicht alles sein.
Progress to Date
27/05/2003 13:11:47
Dragon Oil PLC
27 May 2003
DRAGON OIL PLC
DRAGON OIL CHIEF MEETS TURKMENISTAN PRESIDENT AND OUTLINES PROGRESS TO DATE
Turkmenistan President Saparmurat Turkmenbashi recently received a brief on the
progress of Dragon Oil Plc (`Dragon`), the independent oil and gas exploration
and production company of which Emirates National Oil Company Ltd (ENOC) LLC is
the major shareholder. The brief came in a meeting between the President and
Hussain Sultan, Chairman and Chief Executive of Dragon.
During the meeting Hussain Sultan explained to the President that by the end of
last year Dragon increased its daily oil production from 6,000 barrels per day
(bpd) to 15,000 bpd after Dragon drilled four new wells.
During the meeting, President Turkmenbashi expressed his country`s willingness
to assist Dragon in fast-tracking its operations in Turkmenistan.
As a part of Dragon`s plans to further develop the field, Dragon will shortly
sign a contract for a jack up oil rig to be used for drilling offshore.
Hussain Sultan, Chairman and Chief Executive of Dragon commented:
`Currently we are in the final stage of talks on this contract with drilling
work expected to start in November using this jack up rig.`
Enquiries:
Citigate Dewe Rogerson (+ 44 207 638 9571)
Martin Jackson
27 May 2003
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
27/05/2003 13:11:47
Dragon Oil PLC
27 May 2003
DRAGON OIL PLC
DRAGON OIL CHIEF MEETS TURKMENISTAN PRESIDENT AND OUTLINES PROGRESS TO DATE
Turkmenistan President Saparmurat Turkmenbashi recently received a brief on the
progress of Dragon Oil Plc (`Dragon`), the independent oil and gas exploration
and production company of which Emirates National Oil Company Ltd (ENOC) LLC is
the major shareholder. The brief came in a meeting between the President and
Hussain Sultan, Chairman and Chief Executive of Dragon.
During the meeting Hussain Sultan explained to the President that by the end of
last year Dragon increased its daily oil production from 6,000 barrels per day
(bpd) to 15,000 bpd after Dragon drilled four new wells.
During the meeting, President Turkmenbashi expressed his country`s willingness
to assist Dragon in fast-tracking its operations in Turkmenistan.
As a part of Dragon`s plans to further develop the field, Dragon will shortly
sign a contract for a jack up oil rig to be used for drilling offshore.
Hussain Sultan, Chairman and Chief Executive of Dragon commented:
`Currently we are in the final stage of talks on this contract with drilling
work expected to start in November using this jack up rig.`
Enquiries:
Citigate Dewe Rogerson (+ 44 207 638 9571)
Martin Jackson
27 May 2003
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
Bin doch etwas überrascht von der Heftigkeit der letzten Kursgewinne. Möglicherweise stellt sich die nächsten Tage heraus, daß irgendein Börsenbrief o.ä. gepusht hat. Die EMI-Clique hat Dragon schließlich auch auf der Liste ...
Nach solchen fahnenstangenartigen Anstiegen gab es die letzten Jahre bei Dragon Oil immer Rücksetzer.
Also wird man eine Tradingposition evtl glattstellen, um etwas (10-25%) tiefer wieder aufzustocken; an einer langfristigen Kernposition sollte man aber unbedingt festhalten.
Nach solchen fahnenstangenartigen Anstiegen gab es die letzten Jahre bei Dragon Oil immer Rücksetzer.
Also wird man eine Tradingposition evtl glattstellen, um etwas (10-25%) tiefer wieder aufzustocken; an einer langfristigen Kernposition sollte man aber unbedingt festhalten.
Meiner Meinung nach war dieser Anstieg erst der Anfang. Ich sehe keinen Grund, warum die Aktie pro Barrel Ölreserve nicht kurzfristig zumindest so hoch wie russische Aktien bewertet sein sollte, von einer Bewertung wie bei amerikanischen Ölaktien kann man natürlich nur träumen, aber sehr langfristig gesehen ist das vielleicht auch möglich.
Der EMI ist zwar ein Revolverblatt, aber ich stelle es trotzdem mal rein:
07.04.2003
Dragon Oil spekulativ kaufen
Emerging Markets Investor
Die Wertpapierexperten von "Emerging Markets Investor" empfehlen die Aktie von Dragon Oil (ISIN nicht bekannt/ WKN nicht bekannt) spekulativ zu kaufen.
Dragon Oil sei das einzige im Westen notierte Unternehmen, das Zugang zu den Ölreserven in Turkmenistan habe. Für ein Investment sprächen insbesondere die viel versprechenden Assets im kaspischen Meer, ein vorteilhaftes Swap- Aggreement mit dem Iran und eine gute Ölförderung im vergangenen Jahr.
Ein Wermutstropfen sei, dass das Unternehmen Schulden i.H.v. 80 Mio. US- Dollar habe, von denen 50 Mio. US-Dollar im Mai fällig würden. Zwar schulde Dragon Oil das Geld der Emirates National Oil Company der Vereinigten Arabischen Erimate, die mit 67% größter Aktionär sei. Trotzdem habe dies den Aktienkurs belastet.
Die aktuelle Bewertung sei lächerlich. Das Investmenthaus Aton Capital billige Dragon Oil ein Kurspotenzial von 300% zu.
Die Wertpapierexperten von "Emerging Market Investor" empfehlen die Dragon Oil-Aktie spekulativ zu kaufen.
______________________
Eine Verfünf- bis Versiebenfachung der Produktion, zusätzlich Ausnutzung der Gasproduktion sollten einiges in der Bewertung der Firma bewegen. Laut dem PSA wird Dragon überdurchschnittlich von Produktionsausweitungen profitieren, s. die obigen Texte von oilbarrel.com
Thursday June 26, 06:11 PM
Dragon Oil looks to boost Turkmenistan oil output
By Raj Rajendran
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Niche Caspian Sea oil producer Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) is looking to raise its output in Turkmenistan by some 15 percent to 20,000 barrels per day by the end of year, its chief executive office said on Thursday. Hussain M. Sultan told reporters in London, after the company`s annual general meeting, that Dragon oil was looking at various options to raise funds for its long term capital expenditure in Turkmenistan.
"We are looking for funds, there are so many options open to us right now," he said.
Sultan said Dragon Oil, listed in London and Dublin, was in talks with several major oil companies which were interested in becoming a partner in its Caspian oil production.
He said Dubai-based, stated-owned Emirates National Oil Co, which owns two-thirds of Dragon Oil, was willing to sell part of its stake in the company to a strategic partner.
"We can issue bonds or shares to raise the money we need for the investment we plan in Turkmenistan and we are also willing to sell some of our stakes in Dragon Oil," said Sultan, who is also the CEO of ENOC.
The company shares last traded down half a penny at 16.69 pence just off its year high level of 17.5 pence.
Dragon oil currently produces around 10 percent of Turkmenistan`s total oil production but is looking to exploit fully the oil reserves it owns.
The crude produced is light and sweet, yielding much sought after gasoline and low sulphur gas oil.
Sultan said the company`s proven and probable reserves were at more than 600 million barrels, which in most areas would easily accomodate a 100-150,000 bpd production platform, but logisitical and financial constraints have so far prevented Dragon Oil from fully leveraging the reserves.
Output from the field is either sold to refiners around the Caspian Sea, or swapped with Iran which takes the crude to its northern refineries and repays Dragon Oil with its own oil in the Middle East.
He said the company has just concluded a deal to operate a new rig at the field which was expected to drill a few more wells later this year.
Sultan also said that the company, whose sole producing asset is in the Caspian Sea, was in talks with Turkmenistan on ways to use its gas production which at the moment is burnt off.
"There are pipelines in the area which go to Russia and even in Iran. We have to work out a way to get into this when gas production reaches a certain level," he said.
The gas reserves in the block, which it operates, are estimated at 3.57 trillion cubic metres.
07.04.2003
Dragon Oil spekulativ kaufen
Emerging Markets Investor
Die Wertpapierexperten von "Emerging Markets Investor" empfehlen die Aktie von Dragon Oil (ISIN nicht bekannt/ WKN nicht bekannt) spekulativ zu kaufen.
Dragon Oil sei das einzige im Westen notierte Unternehmen, das Zugang zu den Ölreserven in Turkmenistan habe. Für ein Investment sprächen insbesondere die viel versprechenden Assets im kaspischen Meer, ein vorteilhaftes Swap- Aggreement mit dem Iran und eine gute Ölförderung im vergangenen Jahr.
Ein Wermutstropfen sei, dass das Unternehmen Schulden i.H.v. 80 Mio. US- Dollar habe, von denen 50 Mio. US-Dollar im Mai fällig würden. Zwar schulde Dragon Oil das Geld der Emirates National Oil Company der Vereinigten Arabischen Erimate, die mit 67% größter Aktionär sei. Trotzdem habe dies den Aktienkurs belastet.
Die aktuelle Bewertung sei lächerlich. Das Investmenthaus Aton Capital billige Dragon Oil ein Kurspotenzial von 300% zu.
Die Wertpapierexperten von "Emerging Market Investor" empfehlen die Dragon Oil-Aktie spekulativ zu kaufen.
______________________
Eine Verfünf- bis Versiebenfachung der Produktion, zusätzlich Ausnutzung der Gasproduktion sollten einiges in der Bewertung der Firma bewegen. Laut dem PSA wird Dragon überdurchschnittlich von Produktionsausweitungen profitieren, s. die obigen Texte von oilbarrel.com
Thursday June 26, 06:11 PM
Dragon Oil looks to boost Turkmenistan oil output
By Raj Rajendran
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Niche Caspian Sea oil producer Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) is looking to raise its output in Turkmenistan by some 15 percent to 20,000 barrels per day by the end of year, its chief executive office said on Thursday. Hussain M. Sultan told reporters in London, after the company`s annual general meeting, that Dragon oil was looking at various options to raise funds for its long term capital expenditure in Turkmenistan.
"We are looking for funds, there are so many options open to us right now," he said.
Sultan said Dragon Oil, listed in London and Dublin, was in talks with several major oil companies which were interested in becoming a partner in its Caspian oil production.
He said Dubai-based, stated-owned Emirates National Oil Co, which owns two-thirds of Dragon Oil, was willing to sell part of its stake in the company to a strategic partner.
"We can issue bonds or shares to raise the money we need for the investment we plan in Turkmenistan and we are also willing to sell some of our stakes in Dragon Oil," said Sultan, who is also the CEO of ENOC.
The company shares last traded down half a penny at 16.69 pence just off its year high level of 17.5 pence.
Dragon oil currently produces around 10 percent of Turkmenistan`s total oil production but is looking to exploit fully the oil reserves it owns.
The crude produced is light and sweet, yielding much sought after gasoline and low sulphur gas oil.
Sultan said the company`s proven and probable reserves were at more than 600 million barrels, which in most areas would easily accomodate a 100-150,000 bpd production platform, but logisitical and financial constraints have so far prevented Dragon Oil from fully leveraging the reserves.
Output from the field is either sold to refiners around the Caspian Sea, or swapped with Iran which takes the crude to its northern refineries and repays Dragon Oil with its own oil in the Middle East.
He said the company has just concluded a deal to operate a new rig at the field which was expected to drill a few more wells later this year.
Sultan also said that the company, whose sole producing asset is in the Caspian Sea, was in talks with Turkmenistan on ways to use its gas production which at the moment is burnt off.
"There are pipelines in the area which go to Russia and even in Iran. We have to work out a way to get into this when gas production reaches a certain level," he said.
The gas reserves in the block, which it operates, are estimated at 3.57 trillion cubic metres.
vom 30.6.2003
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=6&d=30&tmo…
Dragon Oil plans to boost output 15% by end-2003
Hussein Sultan, CEO of Dragon Oil, a U.K. listed company producing oil on Turkmenistan`s Caspian shelf, said last week the company plans to increase production at its Cheleken contract area by 15% to 1mn tons (20mbpd) gross by the end of 2003. Dargon Oil owns 50% of the project, so net output attributable to the company would be one half of the announced target.
In 2002, Dragon Oil produced around 5mbpd net, a 93% increase on 2001. For 2003 we expected the company to produce 7.5mbpd net; the recent statements thus suggest our target could be proven conservative.
The CEO also said Dragon Oil is studying all options in respect to funding the massive capital expenditure required to increase production to the company`s goal of 30mbpd net, including the sale of shares held by ENOC (the largest shareholder with 67% interest) to a strategic investor.
With more than 600mn bbls of proven and probable reserves (audited under Western standards) Dragon Oil represents a very attractive acquisition target for a large oil major. In addition, the company is already generating oil and cash flows and exports 100% of its output. The only risk is Turkemistan`s unstable and unpredictable politics, highlighted again recently in a confrontation with Russia over dual citizenship (the government owns the other 50% of the assets being developed by Dragon).
Despite 70% appreciation since our initiation of coverage in March 2003 we believe the stock retains 150% upside to our fair value target of $0.64. We thus reiterate our Buy recommendation.
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=6&d=30&tmo…
Dragon Oil plans to boost output 15% by end-2003
Hussein Sultan, CEO of Dragon Oil, a U.K. listed company producing oil on Turkmenistan`s Caspian shelf, said last week the company plans to increase production at its Cheleken contract area by 15% to 1mn tons (20mbpd) gross by the end of 2003. Dargon Oil owns 50% of the project, so net output attributable to the company would be one half of the announced target.
In 2002, Dragon Oil produced around 5mbpd net, a 93% increase on 2001. For 2003 we expected the company to produce 7.5mbpd net; the recent statements thus suggest our target could be proven conservative.
The CEO also said Dragon Oil is studying all options in respect to funding the massive capital expenditure required to increase production to the company`s goal of 30mbpd net, including the sale of shares held by ENOC (the largest shareholder with 67% interest) to a strategic investor.
With more than 600mn bbls of proven and probable reserves (audited under Western standards) Dragon Oil represents a very attractive acquisition target for a large oil major. In addition, the company is already generating oil and cash flows and exports 100% of its output. The only risk is Turkemistan`s unstable and unpredictable politics, highlighted again recently in a confrontation with Russia over dual citizenship (the government owns the other 50% of the assets being developed by Dragon).
Despite 70% appreciation since our initiation of coverage in March 2003 we believe the stock retains 150% upside to our fair value target of $0.64. We thus reiterate our Buy recommendation.
21.75p 
100% in 2 Monaten
100% in 2 Monaten
Jetzt schon 24p, ohne Nachrichten.
Aber erst bei 40p wäre die Unterbewertung aufgeholt.
Aber erst bei 40p wäre die Unterbewertung aufgeholt.
Noch einmal + 10 %.
Und die Umsätze ziehen auch an, in London über 2 Mio. Stück.
Und die Umsätze ziehen auch an, in London über 2 Mio. Stück.
16.07.2003
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=7&d=16&tmo…
Dragon Oil: Buy reiterated despite recent strong performance
Shares of Dragon Oil, an independent U.K.-listed producer operating in the Turkmenistan part of the Caspian shelf, have soared 66% since the beginning of the month in the absence of any major news. Since we initiated a Buy recommendation in our March report "Back in the USSR: New frontiers for small-cap ideas" the stock has rocketed 165% on the back of the successful resolution of Dragon`s debt issue ($40mn of the $50mn loan maturing in May 2003 was rolled over, while the remainder was repaid) and positive guidance for 2003 operating targets.
Despite the strong year-to-date performance, however, we reiterate our Buy recommendation. The company`s fundamental story - a large Caspian reserve base, strong near-term growth in output and EBITDA - remains intact; while the valuation continues to be attractive.
Based on the most recent price of £0.265 (around $0.42), Dragon Oil remains reasonably valued at $0.7/bbl of reserves (2P) and $113/bbl of production, compared to the $7/bbl of reserves and $302/bbl of output Lukoil received for its 10% stake in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project, located fairly close to Dragon`s operations. On a financial multiples basis, Dragon trades at 10 times 2002 earnings and nine times 2002 EBITDA; all of its financial multiples are set to improve strongly in 2003 due to higher production volumes (expected to rise 30% y- o-y) and stronger oil prices. We note that Dragon exports 100% of its output through swap arrangements with Iran and/or using a westbound export route through Azerbaidjan to Novorossiysk, and is thus deriving the full benefits of the strong oil prices thus far in 2003.
Under our standard approach to valuing small-cap oils, we continue to value Dragon Oil at $0.60, providing 40% upside to the recent market close (we assign 75% weighting to the valuation based on proven and probable reserves and 25% weighting to current production).
To summarize, while investors could be justified in using the recent price strength to take some profits, we remain of the view that the company`s fundamental value (or the value in the eyes of a potential strategic partner or acquirer) lies well north of current levels.
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=7&d=16&tmo…
Dragon Oil: Buy reiterated despite recent strong performance
Shares of Dragon Oil, an independent U.K.-listed producer operating in the Turkmenistan part of the Caspian shelf, have soared 66% since the beginning of the month in the absence of any major news. Since we initiated a Buy recommendation in our March report "Back in the USSR: New frontiers for small-cap ideas" the stock has rocketed 165% on the back of the successful resolution of Dragon`s debt issue ($40mn of the $50mn loan maturing in May 2003 was rolled over, while the remainder was repaid) and positive guidance for 2003 operating targets.
Despite the strong year-to-date performance, however, we reiterate our Buy recommendation. The company`s fundamental story - a large Caspian reserve base, strong near-term growth in output and EBITDA - remains intact; while the valuation continues to be attractive.
Based on the most recent price of £0.265 (around $0.42), Dragon Oil remains reasonably valued at $0.7/bbl of reserves (2P) and $113/bbl of production, compared to the $7/bbl of reserves and $302/bbl of output Lukoil received for its 10% stake in the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project, located fairly close to Dragon`s operations. On a financial multiples basis, Dragon trades at 10 times 2002 earnings and nine times 2002 EBITDA; all of its financial multiples are set to improve strongly in 2003 due to higher production volumes (expected to rise 30% y- o-y) and stronger oil prices. We note that Dragon exports 100% of its output through swap arrangements with Iran and/or using a westbound export route through Azerbaidjan to Novorossiysk, and is thus deriving the full benefits of the strong oil prices thus far in 2003.
Under our standard approach to valuing small-cap oils, we continue to value Dragon Oil at $0.60, providing 40% upside to the recent market close (we assign 75% weighting to the valuation based on proven and probable reserves and 25% weighting to current production).
To summarize, while investors could be justified in using the recent price strength to take some profits, we remain of the view that the company`s fundamental value (or the value in the eyes of a potential strategic partner or acquirer) lies well north of current levels.
"Die Experten des Börsenbriefs "Emerging Markets Investor""
- kommt ganz darauf an, was man unter "Experte" versteht
_________________________________
21.07.2003
Dragon Oil Kursziel erhöht
Emerging Markets Investor
Die Experten des Börsenbriefs "Emerging Markets Investor" erhöhen das Kursziel der Dragon Oil-Aktie (ISIN IE0000590798/ WKN 877789) auf 0,80 Euro.
In den vergangenen Monaten habe sich der Kurs der russischen Junior- Ölgesellschaft mehr als verdreifacht. Ursachen seien die Inbetriebnahme weiterer Förderanlagen in Turkmenistan und die Verlängerung einer Kreditlinie.
Im Jahr 2002 sei der Umsatz von 22,2 Mio. auf 50,5 Mio.US-Dollar explodiert und das Bruttoergebnis habe sich von 782.000 US-Dollar auf 23,4 Mio. US-Dollar gesteigert. Beim aktuellen Kurs liege das KGV bei lächerlichen 6,5.
Die Experten von "Emerging Markets Investor" erhöhen ihr Kursziel für Dragon Oil auf 0,80 Euro auf 12-Monatssicht.
- kommt ganz darauf an, was man unter "Experte" versteht
_________________________________
21.07.2003
Dragon Oil Kursziel erhöht
Emerging Markets Investor
Die Experten des Börsenbriefs "Emerging Markets Investor" erhöhen das Kursziel der Dragon Oil-Aktie (ISIN IE0000590798/ WKN 877789) auf 0,80 Euro.
In den vergangenen Monaten habe sich der Kurs der russischen Junior- Ölgesellschaft mehr als verdreifacht. Ursachen seien die Inbetriebnahme weiterer Förderanlagen in Turkmenistan und die Verlängerung einer Kreditlinie.
Im Jahr 2002 sei der Umsatz von 22,2 Mio. auf 50,5 Mio.US-Dollar explodiert und das Bruttoergebnis habe sich von 782.000 US-Dollar auf 23,4 Mio. US-Dollar gesteigert. Beim aktuellen Kurs liege das KGV bei lächerlichen 6,5.
Die Experten von "Emerging Markets Investor" erhöhen ihr Kursziel für Dragon Oil auf 0,80 Euro auf 12-Monatssicht.
Es geht wieder nordwärts.
Nachrichten hab ich allerdings keine gefunden.
Wenn jemand was weiß, bitte posten!
Nachrichten hab ich allerdings keine gefunden.
Wenn jemand was weiß, bitte posten!
FT MARKETS: Dragon Oil overcomes political instability
By Steve Johnson and Darryl Thomson
Financial Times; Sep 26, 2003
Basing your entire operations in Turkmenistan, a former Soviet republic where the
authoritarian president has been hailed as a prophet by his ministers, might not seem the safest ploy. But reliance on a country where the president has replaced the word for bread with his mother`s name has not stopped Dragon Oil from quadrupling since spring to 39¼p, helped by an increase of 8.3 per cent yesterday.
Dragon has rights over a block of Turkmenistan`s Caspian Sea shelf with proven and probable reserves of 680m barrels of oil as well as large volumes of natural gas.
House broker Job Langbroek at Davy Stockbrokers is relaxed about the bizarre edicts of Saparmurat Niyazov, president. "If you shoot the goose you don`t get any more eggs," he says of the nation`s oil industry. But Steven Dashevsky at Russian broker Aton Capital said: "The only risk is Turkmenistan`s unstable and unpredictable politics." Dragon has sharply increased production and Mr Langbroek, who values the shares north of 50p, sees earnings doubling to $30m in the current year. However, the recent rally also seems to have been fuelled by rising oil prices and rumours that Dragon will be bought by a Russian oil major. Mr Dashevsky agrees, saying the company is an "attractive acquisition target".
However, Dragon may be forced into refinancing because of large debts outstanding to both the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and two-thirds shareholder Emirates National Oil Company.
By Steve Johnson and Darryl Thomson
Financial Times; Sep 26, 2003
Basing your entire operations in Turkmenistan, a former Soviet republic where the
authoritarian president has been hailed as a prophet by his ministers, might not seem the safest ploy. But reliance on a country where the president has replaced the word for bread with his mother`s name has not stopped Dragon Oil from quadrupling since spring to 39¼p, helped by an increase of 8.3 per cent yesterday.
Dragon has rights over a block of Turkmenistan`s Caspian Sea shelf with proven and probable reserves of 680m barrels of oil as well as large volumes of natural gas.
House broker Job Langbroek at Davy Stockbrokers is relaxed about the bizarre edicts of Saparmurat Niyazov, president. "If you shoot the goose you don`t get any more eggs," he says of the nation`s oil industry. But Steven Dashevsky at Russian broker Aton Capital said: "The only risk is Turkmenistan`s unstable and unpredictable politics." Dragon has sharply increased production and Mr Langbroek, who values the shares north of 50p, sees earnings doubling to $30m in the current year. However, the recent rally also seems to have been fuelled by rising oil prices and rumours that Dragon will be bought by a Russian oil major. Mr Dashevsky agrees, saying the company is an "attractive acquisition target".
However, Dragon may be forced into refinancing because of large debts outstanding to both the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and two-thirds shareholder Emirates National Oil Company.
Monday September 29, 12:03 PM
Dragon Oil higher as turnover jumps
Shares in Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) were up 2 per cent at 38.8p in Monday mornnig trading in London after the exploration and production company reported a surge in first half pre-tax profit to $15.1m from $1.2m in the same period a year earlier.
In the six months to June 10, turnover increased to $40.1m from $15.9m.
Earnings per share were up to 4.17c from 0.34c.
Dragon said the steep increases were expected.
Average gross production at its Cheleken field in the period soared to 14,069 barrells per day from 4,329.
The company told investors it intended to to raise additional funding to support its field development programme, and that its board intended to look at “all appropriate financing opportunities”.
Shares in Dragon Oil were up 2 per cent to 38.8p in morning trading.
ausführlicher:
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/news/regnews.asp?ArticleID=1…
Dragon Oil higher as turnover jumps
Shares in Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) were up 2 per cent at 38.8p in Monday mornnig trading in London after the exploration and production company reported a surge in first half pre-tax profit to $15.1m from $1.2m in the same period a year earlier.
In the six months to June 10, turnover increased to $40.1m from $15.9m.
Earnings per share were up to 4.17c from 0.34c.
Dragon said the steep increases were expected.
Average gross production at its Cheleken field in the period soared to 14,069 barrells per day from 4,329.
The company told investors it intended to to raise additional funding to support its field development programme, and that its board intended to look at “all appropriate financing opportunities”.
Shares in Dragon Oil were up 2 per cent to 38.8p in morning trading.
ausführlicher:
http://www.nothing-ventured.com/news/regnews.asp?ArticleID=1…
fein, immer noch ein KGV von 5
Gruß tt
Gruß tt
Erwartungsgemäß ist der Markt nun ein bißchen verschreckt wegen der möglicherweise bevorstehenden Kapitalerhöhung.
25.09.2003
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=9&d=25&tmo…
Dragon Oil
$0.600 — Hold
Dragon Oil Downgraded to Hold after reaching fair value target
Dragon Oil shares have rallied 35% in Sept. 2003, bringing to 260% the total return from the time we initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation in March 2003. As a result, the stock price has reached our fair value target of $0.60, which translates into an EV multiple of $110 per barrel of 2003F oil production and $0.88/bbl of proven and probable oil reserves. Although we have adjusted our target EV/Production multiple higher to better reflect data from comparable transactions, our new fair value target of $0.69 leaves just 14% upside potential from current levels.
From the financial multiples standpoint Dragon now trades at 14-times trailing (2002) earnings and 11-times trailing EBITDA. Even considering that higher production volumes and strong prices in 2003 will likely translate into roughly 50% EBITDA/net income growth, based on 03F multiples of 9-times earnings and 7-times EBITDA the stock no longer presents the same compelling opportunity it did earlier in the year.
From the risk perspective, the resolution of the debt issue and partial repayment of EBRD loans have helped to reduce the vulnerability of Dragon`s financial position. At the same time, the fact the company relies primarily on oil swaps with Iran to get its crude to global markets represents a new risk in light of the current geopolitical situation.
To summarize, while Dragon`s investment story of rapid profitable production growth from young Caspian reserves and balance sheet de-leveraging remains intact, it now appears fairly valued based on our new target valuation multiples ($1/bbl of proven and probable reserves, $100/bbl of `03F output), which yield a new fair value target of $0.69. We thus downgrade our recommendation to Hold; better visibility on 2004 production growth and de-leveraging targets could prompt us to review our fair value calculations, however.
20.09.2003
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=9&d=30&tmo…
Dragon Oil
$0.599 — Hold
Posts strong 1H03 results
Dragon Oil (DGO) yesterday posted strong 1H03 results reflecting its robust operating performance and a highly favorable price environment. DGO saw gross 1H03 production of 14.1mbpd, up 61% y-o-y, while crude prices for the period averaged 25% higher y-o-y.
As a result, DGO`s 1H03 net income soared to $15mn, from just $1.2mn in 1H03, on the back of a 152% revenue increase and 428% EBITDA growth. Cash flow generation also soared as DGO`s operating cash flow grew 174% y-o-y.
Summary of DGO`s 1H03 results
In $ `000 1H02 1H03 Change
Revenue 15,934 40,146 152%
Total operating expenses 11,243 15,392 37%
(excl. depreciation)
EBITDA 4,691 24,754 428%
Depreciation 2,256 4,769 111%
Operating income 2,435 19,985 721%
Net income 1,238 15,112 1121%
Operating cash flow 6,484 17,752 174%
In $ `000 1H02 1H03 Change
EBITDA margin 29% 62% 32p.p.
Operating margin 15% 50% 34p.p.
Net margin 8% 38% 30p.p.
Operating cash flow margin 41% 44% 4p.p.
Source: Company data
The strong P&L showing made its way onto the balance sheet, as DGO was able to reduce its net debt position by $18.6mn to $67mn. DGO`s substantial debt burden (the company`s debt/equity ratio currently amounts to almost 40% and EBITDA/interest coverage ratio stands at 6.7) remains a significant risk. We note, however, that the company was able to address this issue by extending $40mn of its outstanding debt until May 2004 after ENOC, a majority shareholder, provided a new loan.
From the financial multiples standpoint and based on the annualized 1H03 data DGO now trades at 7-times 2003E earnings and 5.7-times 2003E EBITDA. The actual multiples will likely be higher as 1H03 results incorporated performance in 1Q03, which was likely the best quarter in 2003. Although hardly overvalued, the stock no longer presents the same compelling opportunity it did earlier in the year (DGO shares increased in value four-fold from the time we initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation in March 2003).
To summarize, while Dragon`s investment story of rapid profitable production growth from young Caspian reserves and balance sheet de-leveraging remains intact, the stock appears increasingly fully valued. Plugging in the new production and debt figures, we arrive at a new fair value target of $0.78, or 30% upside from current levels. However, given lower oil prices in 2H03, still substantial leverage and political risks connected with Turkmenistan, we feel the potential upside fairly reflects the risks present.
We thus reiterate our Hold recommendation on the company; better visibility on 2004 production growth and de-leveraging targets could prompt us to review our fair value calculations, however.
____________________
Ich gehe weiter davon aus, daß Dragon Oil durch eine Steigerung der Produktion um mehrere 100% in ganz andere Gewinnregionen wachsen kann (natürlich stabilen Ölpreis vorausgesetzt) und auch Aton ihr Kursziel im Laufe der nächsten Quartale nach oben anpassen wird.
Sofern auch sonst nix passiert; der turkmenische Regierungschef ist immerhin als - vorsichtig bezeichnet - etwas exzentrisch bekannt.
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=9&d=25&tmo…
Dragon Oil
$0.600 — Hold
Dragon Oil Downgraded to Hold after reaching fair value target
Dragon Oil shares have rallied 35% in Sept. 2003, bringing to 260% the total return from the time we initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation in March 2003. As a result, the stock price has reached our fair value target of $0.60, which translates into an EV multiple of $110 per barrel of 2003F oil production and $0.88/bbl of proven and probable oil reserves. Although we have adjusted our target EV/Production multiple higher to better reflect data from comparable transactions, our new fair value target of $0.69 leaves just 14% upside potential from current levels.
From the financial multiples standpoint Dragon now trades at 14-times trailing (2002) earnings and 11-times trailing EBITDA. Even considering that higher production volumes and strong prices in 2003 will likely translate into roughly 50% EBITDA/net income growth, based on 03F multiples of 9-times earnings and 7-times EBITDA the stock no longer presents the same compelling opportunity it did earlier in the year.
From the risk perspective, the resolution of the debt issue and partial repayment of EBRD loans have helped to reduce the vulnerability of Dragon`s financial position. At the same time, the fact the company relies primarily on oil swaps with Iran to get its crude to global markets represents a new risk in light of the current geopolitical situation.
To summarize, while Dragon`s investment story of rapid profitable production growth from young Caspian reserves and balance sheet de-leveraging remains intact, it now appears fairly valued based on our new target valuation multiples ($1/bbl of proven and probable reserves, $100/bbl of `03F output), which yield a new fair value target of $0.69. We thus downgrade our recommendation to Hold; better visibility on 2004 production growth and de-leveraging targets could prompt us to review our fair value calculations, however.
20.09.2003
http://www.aton.ru/en/research/daily.asp?y=2003&m=9&d=30&tmo…
Dragon Oil
$0.599 — Hold
Posts strong 1H03 results
Dragon Oil (DGO) yesterday posted strong 1H03 results reflecting its robust operating performance and a highly favorable price environment. DGO saw gross 1H03 production of 14.1mbpd, up 61% y-o-y, while crude prices for the period averaged 25% higher y-o-y.
As a result, DGO`s 1H03 net income soared to $15mn, from just $1.2mn in 1H03, on the back of a 152% revenue increase and 428% EBITDA growth. Cash flow generation also soared as DGO`s operating cash flow grew 174% y-o-y.
Summary of DGO`s 1H03 results
In $ `000 1H02 1H03 Change
Revenue 15,934 40,146 152%
Total operating expenses 11,243 15,392 37%
(excl. depreciation)
EBITDA 4,691 24,754 428%
Depreciation 2,256 4,769 111%
Operating income 2,435 19,985 721%
Net income 1,238 15,112 1121%
Operating cash flow 6,484 17,752 174%
In $ `000 1H02 1H03 Change
EBITDA margin 29% 62% 32p.p.
Operating margin 15% 50% 34p.p.
Net margin 8% 38% 30p.p.
Operating cash flow margin 41% 44% 4p.p.
Source: Company data
The strong P&L showing made its way onto the balance sheet, as DGO was able to reduce its net debt position by $18.6mn to $67mn. DGO`s substantial debt burden (the company`s debt/equity ratio currently amounts to almost 40% and EBITDA/interest coverage ratio stands at 6.7) remains a significant risk. We note, however, that the company was able to address this issue by extending $40mn of its outstanding debt until May 2004 after ENOC, a majority shareholder, provided a new loan.
From the financial multiples standpoint and based on the annualized 1H03 data DGO now trades at 7-times 2003E earnings and 5.7-times 2003E EBITDA. The actual multiples will likely be higher as 1H03 results incorporated performance in 1Q03, which was likely the best quarter in 2003. Although hardly overvalued, the stock no longer presents the same compelling opportunity it did earlier in the year (DGO shares increased in value four-fold from the time we initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation in March 2003).
To summarize, while Dragon`s investment story of rapid profitable production growth from young Caspian reserves and balance sheet de-leveraging remains intact, the stock appears increasingly fully valued. Plugging in the new production and debt figures, we arrive at a new fair value target of $0.78, or 30% upside from current levels. However, given lower oil prices in 2H03, still substantial leverage and political risks connected with Turkmenistan, we feel the potential upside fairly reflects the risks present.
We thus reiterate our Hold recommendation on the company; better visibility on 2004 production growth and de-leveraging targets could prompt us to review our fair value calculations, however.
____________________
Ich gehe weiter davon aus, daß Dragon Oil durch eine Steigerung der Produktion um mehrere 100% in ganz andere Gewinnregionen wachsen kann (natürlich stabilen Ölpreis vorausgesetzt) und auch Aton ihr Kursziel im Laufe der nächsten Quartale nach oben anpassen wird.
Sofern auch sonst nix passiert; der turkmenische Regierungschef ist immerhin als - vorsichtig bezeichnet - etwas exzentrisch bekannt.
Der zweite Text von Aton ist vom 30.09., nicht vom 20.09.
Wieder auf 0,42€ - eine Überlegung wert 
Tuesday December 23, 09:51 AM
Dragon Oil places $18 mln new shares to fund project
MOSCOW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Niche Caspian Sea oil producer Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) , which works in Turkmenistan, placed $18 million worth of new shares to fund an exploration project, the issue organisers said on Tuesday.
Russia`s Aton Capital Group said Dragon Oil had placed 36.5 million new ordinary shares, representing approximately 10 percent of existing issued share capital, at a price of 0.28 pounds ($0.49) per share with investment funds.
"The placement was materially oversubscribed. Application will be made to the Irish Stock Exchange and to the London Stock Exchange for the new ordinary shares to be admitted for trading," Aton said in a statement.
Trading in shares is expected to start on January 2.
Dubai-based stated-owned Emirates National Oil Co owns two thirds of Dragon Oil, which said earlier this year it planned to raise output in Turkmenistan by 15 percent to 20,000 barrels per day in 2003.
Output of Dragon oil is either sold to refiners around the Caspian Sea, or swapped with Iran which takes the crude to its northern refineries and repays Dragon Oil with its own oil in the Middle East.
"Proceeds of the placement, amounting to approximately $18 million before expenses, will primarily fund the three-dimensional (3D) seismic survey of the Cheleken contract area block, offshore Turkmenistan," said Aton.
The survey will offer a better understanding of the licence area and may help boost Dragon`s proven reserve base, it said.
"The seismic survey will likely result in a more precise identification of drilling targets and, given the company`s gross reserves in excess of one billion barrels, may lead to reclassification of some reserves from probable and possible into proven," said Aton.
Dragon Oil places $18 mln new shares to fund project
MOSCOW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Niche Caspian Sea oil producer Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO.L - news) , which works in Turkmenistan, placed $18 million worth of new shares to fund an exploration project, the issue organisers said on Tuesday.
Russia`s Aton Capital Group said Dragon Oil had placed 36.5 million new ordinary shares, representing approximately 10 percent of existing issued share capital, at a price of 0.28 pounds ($0.49) per share with investment funds.
"The placement was materially oversubscribed. Application will be made to the Irish Stock Exchange and to the London Stock Exchange for the new ordinary shares to be admitted for trading," Aton said in a statement.
Trading in shares is expected to start on January 2.
Dubai-based stated-owned Emirates National Oil Co owns two thirds of Dragon Oil, which said earlier this year it planned to raise output in Turkmenistan by 15 percent to 20,000 barrels per day in 2003.
Output of Dragon oil is either sold to refiners around the Caspian Sea, or swapped with Iran which takes the crude to its northern refineries and repays Dragon Oil with its own oil in the Middle East.
"Proceeds of the placement, amounting to approximately $18 million before expenses, will primarily fund the three-dimensional (3D) seismic survey of the Cheleken contract area block, offshore Turkmenistan," said Aton.
The survey will offer a better understanding of the licence area and may help boost Dragon`s proven reserve base, it said.
"The seismic survey will likely result in a more precise identification of drilling targets and, given the company`s gross reserves in excess of one billion barrels, may lead to reclassification of some reserves from probable and possible into proven," said Aton.
Quelle: aton.ru 24.Dez 03
---------------------------
Dragon Oil. Successfully places 10% of shares with institutional investors
Dragon Oil placed 36,500,000 ordinary shares (representing approximately 10% of existing issued share capital) at a price of £0.28 ($0.49) per share with institutional investors. The placement, which was handled by Aton Capital Group and Davy Stockbrokers, was materially oversubscribed.
Application will be made to the Irish Stock Exchange and to the London Stock Exchange for the new ordinary shares to be admitted for trading. Dealing in the shares is expected to start on Jan. 2, 2004.
Proceeds of the placement, amounting to approximately $18mn before expenses, will primarily fund the 3-D seismic survey of the Cheleken Contract Area block, offshore Turkmenistan. The survey will offer a better understanding of the license area and may help boost Dragon`s proven reserve base. The 3-D seismic will likely result in a more precise identification of drilling targets and, given the company`s gross 3P reserves in excess of 1bn bbls, may lead to reclassification of some reserves from probable and possible into proven.
We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Dragon Oil with a DCF-based fair value of $0.73 per share; our asset-based target price amounts to $0.96 per share.
---------------
Fair value bei 0,73 bzw. 0,96 ??? Und bloss 0,41 € in Deutschland ???
Empfehlung: strong buy.
Kusoke
---------------------------
Dragon Oil. Successfully places 10% of shares with institutional investors
Dragon Oil placed 36,500,000 ordinary shares (representing approximately 10% of existing issued share capital) at a price of £0.28 ($0.49) per share with institutional investors. The placement, which was handled by Aton Capital Group and Davy Stockbrokers, was materially oversubscribed.
Application will be made to the Irish Stock Exchange and to the London Stock Exchange for the new ordinary shares to be admitted for trading. Dealing in the shares is expected to start on Jan. 2, 2004.
Proceeds of the placement, amounting to approximately $18mn before expenses, will primarily fund the 3-D seismic survey of the Cheleken Contract Area block, offshore Turkmenistan. The survey will offer a better understanding of the license area and may help boost Dragon`s proven reserve base. The 3-D seismic will likely result in a more precise identification of drilling targets and, given the company`s gross 3P reserves in excess of 1bn bbls, may lead to reclassification of some reserves from probable and possible into proven.
We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Dragon Oil with a DCF-based fair value of $0.73 per share; our asset-based target price amounts to $0.96 per share.
---------------
Fair value bei 0,73 bzw. 0,96 ??? Und bloss 0,41 € in Deutschland ???
Empfehlung: strong buy.Kusoke
es ist vollbracht
das deutsche firmenporträt
http://www.russlandaktien.info/Firmen_Kaspi/DragonOil/dragon…
das deutsche firmenporträt
http://www.russlandaktien.info/Firmen_Kaspi/DragonOil/dragon…
Hi,
schon gut die Russen Öl Aktien, jedoch habe ich eine Australiesche gefunden die ist in 2 Wochen 500% gestiegen, und wird auch weiter steigen, meinen zumindest die Australier, bis zu 2 AUD, letzten Tage immer ca. 30% gestiegen, Volumen 190.000.000 , leider in Deutschland nur geringer Umsatz,
WKN 675558 Lakes Oil
http://www.lakesoil.com.au
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/05/1073267965186.html
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/lakes-oil…
schon gut die Russen Öl Aktien, jedoch habe ich eine Australiesche gefunden die ist in 2 Wochen 500% gestiegen, und wird auch weiter steigen, meinen zumindest die Australier, bis zu 2 AUD, letzten Tage immer ca. 30% gestiegen, Volumen 190.000.000 , leider in Deutschland nur geringer Umsatz,
WKN 675558 Lakes Oil
http://www.lakesoil.com.au
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/01/05/1073267965186.html
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/lakes-oil…
Ich hab mal die wichtigsten Daten über dieses Unternehmen zusammengetragen, damit Ihr Euch ein Bild machen könnt. Es ist sehr gut mit Transmeridian zu vergleichen, produziert aber im Gegensatz zu denen schon kräftig....
Und entschuldigt bitte den Deutsch-Englisch-Mix. Das sind meine unbearbeiteten Privataufzeichnungen.
Ich hoffe, Ihr könnt etwas damit anfangen...
Dragon Oil Plc.
Ausgegebene Aktien : 362.267.870 Stück (Dez 2002)
Major Shareholder :
Emirates National Oil Company Ltd (ENOC) LLC 67 %
Operational area : Turkmenistan
Öl-Felder : Chelekten (50% im Besitz Dragon, 50% Regierung Turkmenistan)
Zahlen :
Umsatz : 22,2 Mio. $ (2001)
50,5 Mio. $ (2002)
15,9 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
40,1 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003) +152%
Operating Costs: 11,2 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
15,4 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
Bruttoergebn.: 0,782 Mio. $ (2001)
23,4 Mio. $ (2002)
EBITDA: 4,7 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
24,8 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
Nachsteuererg.: - 5,4 Mio $ (2001)
15,5 Mio $ (2002)
Vorsteuerergeb.: 1,2 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
(Net income) 15,1 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
EPS : 0,34 c (1. Hj 2002)
4,17 c (1. Hj 2003)
Netcash-flow : 7,6 Mio. $ (2001)
24,2 Mio. $ (2002)
Net Debt : 85 Mio $ (1. Hj 2002)
67 Mio $ (1. Hj 2003)
Debt / Equity ratio : 40 % (1. Hj 2003)
EBITDA/interest coverage ratio : 6.7
Ölproduktion : 3,8 mio barrel (2002)
7,5 mio barrel (erwartet 2003)
4.329 bopd (1. Hj 2002 - Cheleken)
14.069 bopd (1. Hj 2003 - Cheleken)
- einzigstes im Westen notierte U‘, das Zugang zu Ölreserven in Turkmenistan hat.
- Vorteilhaftes Swap-Agreement mit dem Iran (siehe unten) – dadurch günstiger Export
- Nachteil : Schulden 80 Mio $ (04/2003), 50 Mio fällig im Mai 2003 – davon 40 Mio. umgeschuldet und weitere 10 Mio. ausstehend
- Problem dabei : ab ca. 18,000 bopd sind neue umfangreiche Investitionen nötig
- One well can be drilled for 5 mio $
- Kreditor ist ENOC sowie European Bank of Reconstruction
- Hauptasset : Chelekon Contract area (950 qkm im Kaspischen Meer und schließt zwei Felder Lam und Zhdanov ein). Entdeckt in 60er und 70ern
- Daten zum Feld (von 2002):
- 18 alte Wells mit 8.500 bopd früher
- später durch Verfall 2.300 bopd
- zwei neue Wells auf Lam 22 Plattform in 2001 (Lam-22 101 und Lam-22 102)
- zwei neue in 2002 (Lam-22 103 und Lam-22 104)
- Lam-22 105 getestet Anfang 2003 mit 9.464 bopd (Tiefe 2,464 bis 2,635 Meter)
- Produktion : 7.083 bopd in 2000, 6.730 bopd in 2001, 10.383 bopd in 2002
- Drilling :
- Lam/22-102 (Feb. 02) initial rate 3.200 bopd
- Lam/22-103 (Juni 03) initial rate 3.700 bopd
- Lam/22-104 (Okt 02) initial rate 3.956 bopd
- Lam/22-105 (Dez 02) initial rate 9.464 bopd
- Sucht im Juni 2003 einen strategischen Partner, der Aktienanteile von ENOC übernehmen soll
- Produziert etwa 10 % der gesamten Ölproduktion von Turkm.
- Proven Reserves : mehr als 600 Millionen Barrel (Juni 2003)
680 Mio. bbl (Sep. 03)
- Logistische und finanzielle Dinge hindern D. bislang, das Potential nachhaltig zu nutzen
- Öl-Käufer : Raffinerien am Kaspischen Meer, Swaps mit Iran (lt. Aton 100% Verkauf nach Iran), dadurch volle Ausnutzung des hohen Ölpreises
- Neue Rig im Juni 2003
- Planungen, das bisher verbrannte Gas zu nutzen (über Pipelines nach Russland und Iran)
- Wenn entsprechende Gasproduktion, dann Verhandlungen
- Erwartete Gas-Reserven : 3,57 trillion cubic metres (Juni 2003)
- Risiken : instabile und unberechenbare politische Situation
- Fair value : Aton 30.06.03 0,64 $
Aton 16.07.03 0,60 $ (75% basierend auf Reserven, 25% auf aktueller Produktion)
EMI 21.07.03 0,80 €
Aton 25.09.03 0,69 $
Aton 30.09.03 0,78 $
Aton 24.12.03 0,73 $ (DCF)
Aton 24.12.03 0,96 $ (asset based)
- Bewertung : Aton Juli 2003 (Kurs 0,42 $) $0,7/bbl Reserves $113/bbl Production
Aton Sep 2003 (Kurs 0,60 $) 0,88$/bbl Reserves 110$/bbl Production
- Kosten in 2002 : 19 Mio $ fix -> bei weiteren Wells fix, da Infrastruktur bereits vorhanden und mehr Arbeiter nicht nötig
- Transportkosten (erwartet in 2002) bei etwa 3,50 $ je Barrel aufgrund der Swapgeschäfte in den Iran
- Ende Dez. 2003 : Dragon platziert 36,5 Mio. neue Aktien für 0,49 $/Stück für 18 Mio. $ - Die Emission war überzeichnet – Handelbar ab 2. Januar
- Geld wird genutzt zur besseren geolog. Erkundung des Feldes (mehr proven reserves)
Gegenüberstellung:
Lukoil kaufte 10% Anteil im Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project dicht bei D. operations :
Bewertet mit $7 je bbl Reserve sowie $392 je bbl Output.
Und entschuldigt bitte den Deutsch-Englisch-Mix. Das sind meine unbearbeiteten Privataufzeichnungen.
Ich hoffe, Ihr könnt etwas damit anfangen...
Dragon Oil Plc.
Ausgegebene Aktien : 362.267.870 Stück (Dez 2002)
Major Shareholder :
Emirates National Oil Company Ltd (ENOC) LLC 67 %
Operational area : Turkmenistan
Öl-Felder : Chelekten (50% im Besitz Dragon, 50% Regierung Turkmenistan)
Zahlen :
Umsatz : 22,2 Mio. $ (2001)
50,5 Mio. $ (2002)
15,9 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
40,1 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003) +152%
Operating Costs: 11,2 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
15,4 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
Bruttoergebn.: 0,782 Mio. $ (2001)
23,4 Mio. $ (2002)
EBITDA: 4,7 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
24,8 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
Nachsteuererg.: - 5,4 Mio $ (2001)
15,5 Mio $ (2002)
Vorsteuerergeb.: 1,2 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2002)
(Net income) 15,1 Mio. $ (1. Hj 2003)
EPS : 0,34 c (1. Hj 2002)
4,17 c (1. Hj 2003)
Netcash-flow : 7,6 Mio. $ (2001)
24,2 Mio. $ (2002)
Net Debt : 85 Mio $ (1. Hj 2002)
67 Mio $ (1. Hj 2003)
Debt / Equity ratio : 40 % (1. Hj 2003)
EBITDA/interest coverage ratio : 6.7
Ölproduktion : 3,8 mio barrel (2002)
7,5 mio barrel (erwartet 2003)
4.329 bopd (1. Hj 2002 - Cheleken)
14.069 bopd (1. Hj 2003 - Cheleken)
- einzigstes im Westen notierte U‘, das Zugang zu Ölreserven in Turkmenistan hat.
- Vorteilhaftes Swap-Agreement mit dem Iran (siehe unten) – dadurch günstiger Export
- Nachteil : Schulden 80 Mio $ (04/2003), 50 Mio fällig im Mai 2003 – davon 40 Mio. umgeschuldet und weitere 10 Mio. ausstehend
- Problem dabei : ab ca. 18,000 bopd sind neue umfangreiche Investitionen nötig
- One well can be drilled for 5 mio $
- Kreditor ist ENOC sowie European Bank of Reconstruction
- Hauptasset : Chelekon Contract area (950 qkm im Kaspischen Meer und schließt zwei Felder Lam und Zhdanov ein). Entdeckt in 60er und 70ern
- Daten zum Feld (von 2002):
- 18 alte Wells mit 8.500 bopd früher
- später durch Verfall 2.300 bopd
- zwei neue Wells auf Lam 22 Plattform in 2001 (Lam-22 101 und Lam-22 102)
- zwei neue in 2002 (Lam-22 103 und Lam-22 104)
- Lam-22 105 getestet Anfang 2003 mit 9.464 bopd (Tiefe 2,464 bis 2,635 Meter)
- Produktion : 7.083 bopd in 2000, 6.730 bopd in 2001, 10.383 bopd in 2002
- Drilling :
- Lam/22-102 (Feb. 02) initial rate 3.200 bopd
- Lam/22-103 (Juni 03) initial rate 3.700 bopd
- Lam/22-104 (Okt 02) initial rate 3.956 bopd
- Lam/22-105 (Dez 02) initial rate 9.464 bopd
- Sucht im Juni 2003 einen strategischen Partner, der Aktienanteile von ENOC übernehmen soll
- Produziert etwa 10 % der gesamten Ölproduktion von Turkm.
- Proven Reserves : mehr als 600 Millionen Barrel (Juni 2003)
680 Mio. bbl (Sep. 03)
- Logistische und finanzielle Dinge hindern D. bislang, das Potential nachhaltig zu nutzen
- Öl-Käufer : Raffinerien am Kaspischen Meer, Swaps mit Iran (lt. Aton 100% Verkauf nach Iran), dadurch volle Ausnutzung des hohen Ölpreises
- Neue Rig im Juni 2003
- Planungen, das bisher verbrannte Gas zu nutzen (über Pipelines nach Russland und Iran)
- Wenn entsprechende Gasproduktion, dann Verhandlungen
- Erwartete Gas-Reserven : 3,57 trillion cubic metres (Juni 2003)
- Risiken : instabile und unberechenbare politische Situation
- Fair value : Aton 30.06.03 0,64 $
Aton 16.07.03 0,60 $ (75% basierend auf Reserven, 25% auf aktueller Produktion)
EMI 21.07.03 0,80 €
Aton 25.09.03 0,69 $
Aton 30.09.03 0,78 $
Aton 24.12.03 0,73 $ (DCF)
Aton 24.12.03 0,96 $ (asset based)
- Bewertung : Aton Juli 2003 (Kurs 0,42 $) $0,7/bbl Reserves $113/bbl Production
Aton Sep 2003 (Kurs 0,60 $) 0,88$/bbl Reserves 110$/bbl Production
- Kosten in 2002 : 19 Mio $ fix -> bei weiteren Wells fix, da Infrastruktur bereits vorhanden und mehr Arbeiter nicht nötig
- Transportkosten (erwartet in 2002) bei etwa 3,50 $ je Barrel aufgrund der Swapgeschäfte in den Iran
- Ende Dez. 2003 : Dragon platziert 36,5 Mio. neue Aktien für 0,49 $/Stück für 18 Mio. $ - Die Emission war überzeichnet – Handelbar ab 2. Januar
- Geld wird genutzt zur besseren geolog. Erkundung des Feldes (mehr proven reserves)
Gegenüberstellung:
Lukoil kaufte 10% Anteil im Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli project dicht bei D. operations :
Bewertet mit $7 je bbl Reserve sowie $392 je bbl Output.
Um`s gleich klarzustellen : das sollte KEIN Vergleich mit Lukoil sein. Die spielen in einer ganz anderen Liga. 
Kusoke
Kusoke
deutsche analyse aus moskau von ATON BROKERAGE
http://www.russlandaktien.info/Aton/Dragon_Buy_Dec03_12_12_0…
http://www.russlandaktien.info/Aton/Dragon_Buy_Dec03_12_12_0…
Hallo Leute.
Gibt es einen bestimmten Grund, daß Dragon die letzten Tage wieder anziehen?
Gibt es einen bestimmten Grund, daß Dragon die letzten Tage wieder anziehen?
Ganz einfach : Das Ding ist mehr wert als es z.Zt. kostet !!!
Kusoke
Kusoke
das feld scheint ja ziemlich ertragreich zu sein.
wohl etwa gleich wie bei transmeridian.
und dragon gehören doppelt so viel reserven wie transmeridian.
dafür ist dragon auch doppelt so teuer, aber fördert noch nicht viel.
dazu kommt das wohl in turkm sich nicht so viele start ups hingetrauen, weil man dort schneller sein geld los wird als man denkt...
Das heisst aber dann auch für uns dass es für dragon einfacher sein wird weitere profitable ölfelder unter vertrag zu bekommen.
falls wir nicht enteignet werden, dann gehts in 2 jahren um 100 prozent nach oben.
habe in der ARD den weltspiegel bericht über turkm gesehen:
renten 6$ pro monat oder auch gar nichts
kinder singen jeden tag nationalhymne
30$ lohn sind ok 100$ schon sehr gut dh ukraine ist ein reiches land dagegen.
turkmenbashi "der führer aller turkmenen" ist ähnlich wie saddam , ein weltlicher diktator, der auch vor folter nicht zurückschreckt.
pressefreiheit unmöglich
donald rummsfeld (rummy) war mal dort um über das öl zu sprechen.
georgien und aserbejian sind "stabile und demokratische länder" dagegen den eine opposition gibts nicht.
das regime hat stahlinistische züge in verbindung mit einer art stammesvorherschaft des clan-chefs (turkmenbashi)
daher, dragon sollten sich längerfristig zu dividendenpapieren entwickeln sonst verkauf ich sie wieder....
wohl etwa gleich wie bei transmeridian.
und dragon gehören doppelt so viel reserven wie transmeridian.
dafür ist dragon auch doppelt so teuer, aber fördert noch nicht viel.
dazu kommt das wohl in turkm sich nicht so viele start ups hingetrauen, weil man dort schneller sein geld los wird als man denkt...
Das heisst aber dann auch für uns dass es für dragon einfacher sein wird weitere profitable ölfelder unter vertrag zu bekommen.
falls wir nicht enteignet werden, dann gehts in 2 jahren um 100 prozent nach oben.
habe in der ARD den weltspiegel bericht über turkm gesehen:
renten 6$ pro monat oder auch gar nichts
kinder singen jeden tag nationalhymne
30$ lohn sind ok 100$ schon sehr gut dh ukraine ist ein reiches land dagegen.
turkmenbashi "der führer aller turkmenen" ist ähnlich wie saddam , ein weltlicher diktator, der auch vor folter nicht zurückschreckt.
pressefreiheit unmöglich
donald rummsfeld (rummy) war mal dort um über das öl zu sprechen.
georgien und aserbejian sind "stabile und demokratische länder" dagegen den eine opposition gibts nicht.
das regime hat stahlinistische züge in verbindung mit einer art stammesvorherschaft des clan-chefs (turkmenbashi)
daher, dragon sollten sich längerfristig zu dividendenpapieren entwickeln sonst verkauf ich sie wieder....
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