!!! Silber !!! +++ Heute so billig wie vor 30 Jahren !!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[ThaiGuru]

Silber

Heute so billig wie vor 30 Jahren!

In Euro, Franken, etc. gerechnet noch billiger.

88 x billiger als Gold, obwohl Silber in der Natur nur gerade mal 7 x häufiger vorkommt als Gold, und die Silberlager heute fast aufgebraucht sind, und bereits zur Zeit ca. 14 volle Welt Jahresproduktionen Silber short verkauft wurden.

Falls man zusätzlich 30 Jahre Kaufkraft Verlust des US Dollars mit berücksichtigt, erscheinen die heutigen Silber Preise wie

ein schlechter Witz.

Dass die Produktion von Silber, der Nachfrage seit Jahren nicht schritthalten kann, und ein seit Jahren grosses Produktionsdefizit besteht, muss ich den meisten Anlegern nicht mehr besonders erwähnen.

http://www.weigl-fdl.de/angebotsdefizit.html

Der Grund dafür dass dieser Silber Preis Manipulations Skandal bis jetzt überhaupt noch aufrecht erhalten werden konnte, ist die Tatsache, dass Silber als sogenanntes "Abfallprodukt" bei der Förderung von anderen Produkten wie Gold, Kupfer, Blei, Zink, etc. anfällt, und von den Förderfirmen gerade zu den Preisen verkauft werden, die vom Silber Cabal vorgegeben werden.

Die Produktionsdefizite wurden seit Jahren mittels Silberenthortung, und Recycling ausgeglichen. Diese Silberlager sind jetzt aber aufgebraucht.

Siehe:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/thread.ph…

Die reinen Silber Minen, sind von Ausnahmen einmal abgesehen, entweder stillgelegt worden, oder in Konkurs gegangen. Amerikanische Silber Minen zum Beispiel benötigen Silberpreise von mindestens 6 bis 7 Dollar, um überhaupt nur daran zu denken, die Silberproduktion wieder rentabel aufnehmen zu können.

Physisches Silber, strong buy!!!



Weitere Informationsquellen zum Silber:

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.weigl-fdl.de

http://www.the-privateer.com

http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Master.htm

http://www.silverinstitute.org

[silvo]

Hallo Thai!

Vielen Dank für deine Beiträge!




10% meines Depot`s bestehen aus Silber-Call`s .
So langsam wird`s Zeit mit einem Preisanstieg!!!

[Lima2000]

Hi Thaiguru
sawaddee kap
Hoert sich ja echt geil an!in Physisches Silber zu investieren.
Hab schon ne Explorer Aktie und Zwar Donner Minerals,
die bohren nach Nickel in Canada.

Kann ich auch bei Consors kaufen?
Kennst Du weigl www.weigl , sind die Konditionen dort ok?
MfG Lima

[Pfandbrief]

Interessanter als Gold erscheint Silber allemal!

Damit hat es sich aber auch schon.

Obige Tabelle zeigt ja sehr schön was rauskommt bei der Anlage in physische Güter. Lagerkosten sind auch noch zu berücksichtigen!!

[Pfandbrief]

Übrigens, schaut mal nach was mit dem Silberpreis von 1929-1932 passiert ist.

Auch sehr lehrreich, wie ich denke.

[ThaiGuru]

@Lima2000

Physisches Silber bei Consors kaufen?

Glaube geht eher nicht.

Kennst Du weigl www.weigl?

Die Homepage kenne ich schon lange, auch den Silber Rundbrief von Weigl. Kund war ich dort aber bis jetzt nicht, da ich in Thailand lebe.

Sind die Konditionen dort ok?

Mir ist bis jetzt nichts nachteiliges bekannt geworden.

Silber kaufst Du zur Zeit wohl am günstigsten bei E-Bay, als Silber Münzen, oder Medallien aus allen möglichen Länder. Vielfach erhält man diese Silber Münzen grösstenteils zu sehr günstigen Preisen. Vor allem wenn es sich um grössere Sammlungen von Exotischen Silbermünzen handelt. Einfach die Angebote prüfen, Reinheit, und Gewicht beachten, und etwas rechnen. Falls der Preis nicht mehr als max. 15% - 20% über dem reinen Silberwert liegt, zugreifen.

Zum Vergleich: Die bekannten 1 Unzen US Silber Eagles kosten in den USA bei Händlern wie z.Bsp. http://www.kitco.com, oder http://www.usagold.com ca. 6.50 Dollar, plus Versandkosten!

In Deutschland werden sie von vielen Händlern, und Banken mit einem noch grösseren Aufpreis verkauft.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Insiderin007]

Weigl liefert aber auch kein Silber aus...
Das Silber wird in den USA irgendwo gelagert.
Insiderin007

[ThaiGuru]

Wollte eigentlich einen Chart über den Kaufkraftverlust des US Dollars seit 1900 einstellen, um einem "540 Punkte Nemax50 Enthusiasten" zu ermöglichen seine Scheuklappen neu zu justieren.

Habe leider keinen Auftreiben können.

Seit 1945 sieht man aber auch schon sehr deutlich wie der Dollar immer weiter an Kaufkraft verliert.

Wenn man z.Bsp. als Ausgangslage den Silberpreis von 1945 zum Vergleich heranzieht, damals 0.52 Dollar pro Unze, müsste der Preis einer Unze heute, Kaufkraft bereinigt, bei mindestens ca. 5.- Dollar liegen.

Damals bestand aber noch kein seit über 13 Jahren anhaltendes Produktionsdefizit von durchschnittlich pro Jahr ca. 100 Millionen Unzen beim Silber, es gab auch praktisch keine Vorwärtsverkäufe, und schon gar nicht die Shortpositionen von 14 Jahresproduktionen Silber von heute. Zudem waren im Gegensatz zu heute die stategischen Silberlager voll, und nicht leer. Die Münzen der allermeisten Länder dieser Erde besassen einen grossen Silber Anteil in der Legierung, der ursprünglich meistens dem Nominalwert der Münzen entsprach, und bestanden nicht nur aus einer praktisch wertlosen Kupfer/Nickel/weiss was ich Legierung, wie es heute leider der Fall ist.

[Pfandbrief]

514, Thai. Nicht 540.

Ich bestreite ja gar nicht, dass Silber real heute billiger ist als früher. Ich interpretiere diesen Umstand im Gegensatz zu Dir nur anders. Das ist halt, auch und gerade langfristig, eine schlechte Geldanlage. Aus basta.

Und noch dazu ziemlich konjunkturabhängig.

Würde ich so argumentieren wie Du, könnte ich sagen, schau der Nemax war mal auf 8000, jetzt muss man kaufen, ist ja viel billiger.

[Pfandbrief]

Bitte sehr, da hast was längeres. Kaufkraft von 100 englischen Pfund, 1800-2001. US-Dollar hab ich grad nicht da.

[ThaiGuru]

@Pfandbrief

Glauben macht seelig!

Aber Fundamentaldaten können nun mal nicht dauernd ausser Kraft gesetz werden. Vor allem nicht das Gesetz von Angebot und Nachfrage.

Du selbst hast ja leider so gedacht beim Nemax, und lagst komplet daneben. Genauso mit dem was Du noch vor Monaten zur Preisentwicklung bei Gold vorausgesagt hast. Falls Du sie schon vergessen hast, hole ich sie Dir gerne nochmals hervor. Aktien am Dax und TecDax sind m.M.n. auch heute noch, von einigen Ausnahmen abgesehen, stark überbewertet.

Mit Deiner Einschätzung zur zukünftigen Preisentwicklung beim Silber, wirst Du wieder komplet daneben liegen.

Silber, und Silberaktien sind neben Gold und Goldaktien, "DIE" Anlage Chance des Jahrzehnts schlechthin!

Das Du das nicht so siehst, ist Dein gutes Recht, und verwundert mich auch nicht bei Deiner eigenen Art die Sachlage zu analysieren.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Pfandbrief]

Ah ja.

Silberaktien? Wie verträgt sich das mit der Feststellung aus #1:

Die reinen Silber Minen, sind von Ausnahmen einmal abgesehen, entweder stillgelegt worden, oder in Konkurs gegangen.

[ThaiGuru]

@Pfandbrief

Genau diese Denkweise ist es vermutlich die verhindert, dass Du eine zukünftige positive Preisentwicklung beim Silber nicht erkennen kannst.

Eben gerade weil sich die Produktion von Silber für sehr viele Minen nicht rentiert, und dadurch der Betrieb stillgelegt wurde, oder werden muss, bedeutet doch nichts anderes, als dass die Silber Preise massiv zu tief liegen.

Falls dieser Zustand weiter anhalten wird, würde die Silberproduktion zwangsläufig, wohlgemerkt bei einem schon über 13 Jahre anhaltenden Produktionsdefizit, noch weiter zurückgehen, und das Problem der Unterversorgung der Industrie noch vergrössern. Bei von Dir ja anscheinend angenommen, noch weiter fallenden Silberpreis Notierungen, bedeutete das auch für einige jetzt noch produzierende Silber Minen, Existenzgefärdung, mit der daraus folgenden Produktionseinstellung. Du solltest einmal etwas die Billanzen von Silberminen analysieren, bevor Du solche total an der Realität vorbeiziehenden Aeusserungen machst.

Wie, und zu welchem Silber Preis, glaubst Du wohl, können die 14 Jahresproduktionen Silber, die von einigen Silber Cabal Banken bereits auf dem Papier verkauft wurden, (Dieses Silber muss irgenwann auch mal geliefert werden!) in einem Silbermarkt erworben werden können, wo sich eine Silberpreis Produktion quasi nicht mehr lohnt, in dem Silberproduzenten in den Konkurs getrieben wurden, und werden, und in dem jetzt schon viel zu wenig Silber vorhanden ist, um den heute nötigen Bedarf zu decken.

An eine Wiederentdeckung der Anleger von Silber als Anlageinstrument, möchte ich jetzt nicht einmal denken.

Weisst Du überhaupt wie klein der gesammte Silbermarkt ist?

Schon ein Bruchteil dessen, was heute in den ebenso noch sehr kleinen Goldmarkt als Anlagegelder fliesst, würde ausreichen um die Silberpreise explodieren zu lassen.


Deine Aussage das Silber ein schlechtes Investment darstelle, darfst Du selber gerne weiter glauben.

Die Zeit wird zeigen, was das wirkliche Preis Potenzial von Silber ist. Sehr lange kann es eh nicht mehr dauern. Bis dahin kaufe ich physisches Silber, weil Silber heute zu Preisen erworben werden kann, bei denen sich die Produktion für die meisten reinen Silberproduzenten nicht einmal mehr lohnt, und ich davon überzeugt bin, dass genau das der Grund ist, warum trotz der Jahrelangen Silberpreis Manipulation, die übrigens auch heute noch anhält, schlussendlich die Fundamentaldaten dem Silber zu einem bedeutend höheren Preis verhelfen werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Pfandbrief]

Du solltest einmal etwas die Billanzen von Silberminen analysieren, bevor Du solche total an der Realität vorbeiziehenden Aeusserungen machst.


Hab` überhaupt keine Äußerung gemacht, wundere mich nur, wie das mit dem Konkursszenario oben zusammenpaßt.

Von mir aus -- sag halt welche Silberminen noch nicht pleite oder stillgelegt sind -- dann kann man sich ja mal die Bilanzen ansehen. Wenn möglich nicht intransparente Kleinstläden.

Bei richtiger Bewertung sind solche Aktien (im Gegensatz zu physischem Silber!) vielleicht nicht mal so schlecht als Anlage. Ich habe selbst ja auch Rohstoffwerte, aber natürlich kein Gold & Silber -- siehe z.B. Thread: 12 % Dividendenrendite mit schwarzem Gold - UK Coal. Die Bewertung muß aber schon recht günstig sein, sonst kommt für mich kein Investment in Frage.

Ich krieg` heutzutage ja schließlich Aktien aller Art zu Ausverkaufspreisen nachgeschmissen.

[silverpwd]

"Ich krieg` heutzutage ja schließlich Aktien aller Art zu Ausverkaufspreisen nachgeschmissen."


Aktien sind sautauer ! Und um so tiefer sie fallen um so teuerer werden sie fundamental betrachtet, das is das Motto der letzten 3 Jahre !
Nicht wahr Thai und die anderen ganzen Goldspasten ?

[ThaiGuru]

Anhand dieser beiden Langzeit Preistabellen, kann man unschwer erkennen, dass das Verhältnis der Preise von Gold und Silber 1864, dem des natürlichen Vorkommens von Gold und Silber in der Natur entsprach, nähmlich 1:7.

Wie man sieht kostete bereits 1864 eine Unze Silber 2.93 Dollar!

Im Jahr 1864, kostete eine Unze Gold 20.65

1964 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:7
1945 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:30
1974 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:36
1979 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:14
1980 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:37

Am letzten Freitag betrug das Preisverhältnis Gold - Silber 1:80

[Pfandbrief]

Am letzten Freitag betrug das Preisverhältnis Gold - Silber 1:80


Hast recht, das wird fallen.

Fragt sich nur wie.

[ThaiGuru]

Korrektur:

Posting # 16

1864 betrug das Verhältnis Gold - Silber 1:7

[ThaiGuru]

By James Turk, Editor

The Freemarket Gold & Money Report

Letter No. 325
May, 2003

© 2003 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report

I continue to hear the horror stories. A subscriber tells me that the bank where he stores his silver announced a three-fold increase in fees. His bank therefore recommended that he sell his silver "because it is expensive to store and has been a poor investment." When he gave his bank notice that he intended to move his silver to another location, the bank backed down and said that his storage fee would not change.

I advised him to move the silver anyway. My reason? It
appeared to me that his bank was too eager to get him to
liquidate his silver. Maybe their trading desk is short
physical silver and is looking to get its hands on any
silver it can. If that is the case, who knows how safe his
silver really is?

Another subscriber tells me that his bank raised his
storage fees for silver to 2 percent per annum, apparently
thinking that additional expense burden would prod him
into selling. Again, his bank told him that silver has been a poor investment and should therefore be sold.

My response was: Why has his bank suddenly taken this great concern for the customer`s well being after having ignored him and his silver for years?

And the horror stories are not just for silver. I also have been told things about gold that make one wonder about the factors that are driving some banks to act as they are with regard to metal placed with them for safekeeping.

The result of their actions has directly affected their treatment of customers who store precious metals with them. It appears that these banks are eyeing up the
metal stored in safekeeping for a purpose. And it is all
but certain that the banks taking these steps are not
doing it for their customers` best interests.

The sad fact is that most people do not completely
understand the intricacies of storing precious metals.
As a result, many people do not fully appreciate the
risks they are taking with their gold and silver, which
ironically has been bought by many people in order
to provide a risk-free way to hold some of their wealth.

Consequently, I have prepared this primer to provide
you with three storage basics to help you avoid
needless risks with your gold and silver.

1) Unallocated vs. allocated. These are the two most basic methods of storage. When you store on an allocated basis, you continue to own the gold/silver. There is no transfer of title. With allocated gold/silver, you deliver gold/silver bars to the vault
under a contractual agreement that the exact same bars
will be redelivered back to you upon request. But with
unallocated gold/silver you become an unsecured creditor of the bullion bank, and thus, in an unallocated account you are at risk of the bullion bank`s insolvency. So when you store gold, or silver, it should be allocated.

2) Pool accounts. This term is used to mean that your gold or silver is commingled with the gold/silver of other people, which is easy to do because gold/silver is a fungible commodity. There are advantages to pooled gold/silver, generally relating to economies of scale and the resulting reduced fees that are charged when the gold of many people is pooled. Pooled gold/silver can be allocated and unallocated. For example, in GoldMoney all gold is allocated, and each user owns his respective portion of the pool of allocated gold, which again is the way that all gold should be stored. But in contrast to the storage arrangements of GoldMoney, the pooled gold of some firms is unallocated. Thus customers of these firms own unallocated gold, which means that you are a general creditor of the firm and at risk of the firm`s insolvency. Pool accounts are advantageous to use, and I do recommend them -- but only when the pool holds allocated gold. Avoid all other pool accounts.

3) "Gold" and "Silver" certificates. These certificates are common, and are perhaps the most misunderstood type of storage because they are not storage at all. The name is a misnomer because you really don`t own gold, or silver. All you own is someone`s promise to pay gold, or silver to you, which is the basic nature of any "certificate." Let`s say you have some dollars and you go to your bank to make a deposit. As evidence of the transaction, the bank gives you a "certificate of deposit." You no longer own the money, and you now become an unsecured general creditor of the bank. This same principle describes how the so-called "gold/silver certificates" work. You don`t really own gold, or silver. Instead, you are an unsecured general creditor of the bank, trading firm, or mint that issued you the certificate.

In summary, everyone who owns gold. or silver has to distinguish between paper and physical gold,or silver, which are very different things.

I recommend that everyone own physical gold, or silver and
there are two ways to accomplish this objective -- either
you take possession of the gold/silver yourself or place your gold in allocated storage. There are no other alternatives.

If you take possession of the gold, you must then be
willing to manage the responsibilities of holding physical
metal, and to take those required steps to make sure
that it is safely stored and insured. You also have to be
certain that you are purchasing gold from a reliable
dealer so that you are not receiving gold-plated bars
of lead or other base metal.

If you place your gold, or silver with others for storage, I recommend that your gold/silver be allocated. Do not place your gold/silver at risk in any way, and do not hold gold certificates.

Gold, ans silver certificates are not gold/silver, despite what banks, firms, or mints may tell you. These companies will usually offer you all kinds of inducements to take their certificates -- free "storage" being the most common. But there is no such thing as a free lunch.
If a bank or mint is storing gold/silver for you for free, it`s because you are a general creditor of that bank or
mint, which is now using your gold, or silver to generate
income.

Unallocated gold and silver certificates are not gold, or silver. It is just someone`s promise to pay you gold, or silver and in a crisis -- which is precisely when you need that gold/silver -- it is likely that there will be a default on their payment of gold to you.

The bottom line here is quite simple: Make sure your
gold, or silver is allocated. Do not take the risk of "gold or silver certificates."

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

[Der_Glueckliche]

hallo, Thaiguru und alle Silberfreaks!

Ausser Silber gibt es viele andere seltene Metalle, die noch viel billiger sind, bspw. Neodynium, die magnetischen Eigenschaften sind einfqach der Hammer, habe einen Neodynium-Magneten zu Hause, der bei einem Eigengewicht von ca. 100g 400kg trägt.

Wer will, kann diese Magneten bei mir dank Direktimport für 50€/Stück kaufen, meiner Meinung nach mehr Potential(Flugzeug-Elektromotoren/Autonabenbremsen mit Energieeinspeisung bei geringem Gewicht, Magnetfeldgeneratoren) als popeliges Silber, das zugegebenermassen gut als wasserreiniger verwendet werden kann.

Wer jetzt gut investiert, kann enorm gewinnen, warum nicht in Zukunftstechnologien?

Grüsse!

DG

[Pfandbrief]

Um wieviel kannst mir Iridium beschaffen, Der_Glueckliche?

[keepitshort]

Quelle:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/morgan060302pv.html

Using the work of Frank Veneroso, the high estimate of gold leasing is roughly half the available supply.6 This is indeed a serious condition but not nearly as serious as the silver situation.

If we look at the total amount of gold leased versus total supply of gold, we see about half has been leased.



Now let us look at the silver situation. Nearly twice the amount of available silver (bullion) has been leased

it looks nice don´t think twice
action speak louder than words
(physische Silberkäufe z.B. in China wären wichtig )


Silber ist allerdings ein Industriemetall
in Rezessionsphasen dürfte der Silberverbrauch rückläufig sein.
In der Elektronik wird Silber benötigt z.B. bei HF-Spulen
wegen des skin-Effekts.
Handyproduktion dürfte Silber verbrauchen (schätze ich
so mal mit dem gesunden Menschenverstand)

[Der_Glueckliche]

@Pfandbrief:Willst Du Solarzellen bauen?

[Pfandbrief]

Ne, ich finde nur Iridium im Vergleich zu anderen Edelmetallen ziemlich "preiswert".

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

"Um wieviel kannst mir Iridium beschaffen, Der_Glueckliche?"

Pah, Iridium....warum nicht was Interessantes beschaffen, wo die ganze Familie dran Spaß hat?
Also der Glückliche, kaufe von Dir gerne ein 50 kg-Faß Kaliumcyanid, auch Strychnin und Schwefellost sind interessante Partysubstanzen

[Pfandbrief]

Kaliumcyanid is doch was für Weichlinge...

Glücklicher, wieviel kostet bei Dir das Gramm Plutonium?

[ThaiGuru]

@Keepitshort

Danke für den sehr interessanten Link!

Du hast natürlich völlig Recht mit Deiner Aussage, dass bei einer Wirtschaftskriese (Rezession) die Nachfrage der Industrie nach Silber zurück geht. Nur, und jetzt kommt das ABER, es wird in einer Rezession auch automatisch weniger Silber gefördert. In einer Rezession wird ja auch weniger Kupfer, etc. verbraucht, und die Produktion wird gedrosselt. Doch genau bei der Produktion von Kupfer fällt ein Grossteil der Silberproduktion, als "Abfallprodukt" an.

In der Vergangenheit lief das doch so:

Hochkonjunktur = Starke Kupfer Nachfrage + viel "Abfallprodukt" Silber !

Schlechte Konjunktur = weniger Kupfer Nachfrage + weniger "Abfallprodukt" Silber !

Rezession = Einbruch der Kupfer Nachfrage + sehr wenig "Abfallprodukt" Silber !

Da die weltweite Silber Produktion zu ca. 60% bei der Förderung anderer Metalle, als Beiprodukt "Abfallprodukt" entsteht, sollten wir uns nicht allzustark Befürchtungen hingeben, dass Silber wegen einer Rezession, auf einmal wieder im Ueberfluss vorhanden wäre.

Im Gegenteil, sehe ich die reale Chance, dass bei einer Rezession, und niedrigst Zinsen, die Nachfrage nach Silber als Anlage Instrument zur Werterhaltung, wiederenteckt wird. Ein Monetärer Wert, wird Silber heute von den meisten Anlegern zwar abgesprochen, doch glaube ich, dass sich das wieder ändern könnte, falls wir wirklich einen globalen Wirtschafts Crash erleben sollten, der ja jetzt heute schon von verschiedenster, selbst von prominenter Seite, prognostiziert wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS:

Diese eindrücklichen Graphiken aus Deinem verlinkten Bericht zum Silber, sollten auch hier im Thread einen Platz finden.

[keepitshort]

Steve Saville zur Silberpreisentwicklung

http://www.speculative-investor.com/new/article.html

Our long-term view (a view that we`ve held for the past 2 years) is that the silver price will either keep pace with the gold price during the current decade as it did during the 1970s (with gold leading during the initial phase of the bull market and silver then catching up at some point), or it will under-perform. We see very little prospect of the silver price trending higher relative to gold over the next several years. This view was originally based on our long-term outlooks for economic growth and the US$ and has subsequently been supported by the performance of the silver/gold ratio.

[matthiasch]

[keepitshort]

die meisten Notenbanken besitzen kein physisches Silber mehr.

der Silberpreis wird im westenlichen über den Termin-Future-Handel bewegt

[silverpwd]

Wenn tatsächlich mal stärkerer Silberbedarf/Nachfrage entsteht, dann dürfte bei Silber gut abgehen.
Leider sehe ich kein Anlass warum das in Zukunft so sein sollte. Die Industrienachfrage wirds kaum sein, wenn die Weltwirtschaft in Arsch geht. Also was Eure Aufgabe ist: Überzeugt Wall Street !

[Alpha_User]

Hallo zusammen !

Ich hätte mal eine Frage an die hier versammelten Silber Experten:

Welche Silberminen Aktie würdet ihr kaufen, wenn ihr von einem starken Anstieg vom Silber in den nächsten Jahren ausgeht.
(Bitte keine "high risk" Gesellschaften.)

Ich als Ahnungsloser wäre für alle Empfehlungen und Info-Tipps super dankbar !


Vielen Dank schon mal

Alpha_User

PS:Was haltet Ihr von "COEUR D`ALENE" ?

[TFischer]

Bill Gates hat PAAS (15%) gekauft. Haben riesige Silberreserven im Boden.

SSRI ist kleiner aber leider schon zu stark gelaufen.

CDE hat anscheinend Schulden und braucht b a l d mal höhere Silberpreise.

Dies nur so auf die Schnelle als rein persönliche Meinung

Gruss

TFischer

[btrend]

Zihlmann sieht einen Einstiegspunkt zwischen 4,40 und 4,50 mit guten Chancen des breaks bei 4,85:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/zihlmann060503.html

[Alpha_User]

@ TFischer & btrend

Zuerst mal vielen Dank !

Wenn hier jemand einen reinen Silbermimen Fond kennt, oder auch ein Zertifikat (Basket) mit Silberminen und langer Laufzeit, bitte hier die WKN reinposten.
Ich habe da nämlich nichts gefunden.

Noch eine Frage:
Weiss hier zufällig jemand in welche Silberminen Soros &Co investiert haben ?


Ich weiss, das sind nervige Anfängerfragen, aber man möge mir bitte verzeihen.

[TFischer]

Soros ist in Apex Silver (SIL) investiert. Und wo ich Soros höre, höre ich Hedgefond.......

Gruss

TFischer

[Alpha_User]

@ TFischer

Danke !

[silverpwd]

Ich frage mich wirklich bei scheinbar so klaren Zahlen des Silberdefizits, warum Silber nicht teurer ist. Kann mir das einer hier beantworten ? Was stimmt da nicht ? An Verschwörungstheorien mit Preismanipulationen glaube ich nicht.

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Wenigstens hast auch Du anscheinend gemerkt, dass falls die offiziellen Zahlen beim Silber stimmen, irgend etwas nicht ganz stimmt kann mit den Silberpreisen.

Immerhin schon mal etwas!

Da Du rein prinzipiell, "Preismanipulationen" und eine "Interessenswahrung" einiger weniger Banken im Silber Geschäft, (das hat mit Verschwörung nichts, und mit Theorie rein gar nichts zu tun) zum vornherein kategorisch auszuschliessen scheinst, wirst Du selbst verdammt grosse Mühe haben die Ursachen, und Zusammenhänge über diese anormalität beim Silber Preis zu verstehen.

Uebrigens:

Die Ratio Gold / Silber hat sich heute noch zusätzlich erhöht, da ja Gold entgegen Deiner Voraussage heute so schön gestiegen ist, und steht jetzt bei 1:82!

Silber ist jetzt also 82 x billiger wie Gold, obwohl es in der Natur nur 7 x häufiger vorkommt als Gold.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@silverpwd

Anormalitäten gibts auch beim Gold Preis, wie der heutige Chart zeigt!

[silverpwd]

@Thai

An Gold bin ich und werde ich auch nie interessiert sein. Bei Gold sind mir die Lager zu voll und zu viele Spekulaten unterwegs, zu viel Abhängigkeit vom Dollar, zu viel Geschreie usw.
Silber sehe ich zugegebenermassen nach etwas Recherche anders. Die Lager sind leer, es besteht (wenn die Zahlen stimmen) seit langem ein Produktionsdefizit, was zwangsläufig zu Preisteigerungen führen wird.
Ich hab mir mal nen paar SSRI reingeholt, nix grosses, nur zm Verdacht hin, dass es passen könnte.

[ThaiGuru]

Das Silber heute bei einem steigenden Dollar, steigenden Börsen, und einem stark fallenden Goldpreis trotzdem anzieht, ist etwas ungewöhnlich, wenn man das Preisverhalten beim Silber mit den vergangenen Entwicklungen vergleicht.

Sehr bullisch würde ich meinen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[SilverOnly]

Und außerdem sind wir auf einem 600-Jahres-Tief, gemessen in 1998-Dollars:

[SilverOnly]

Nächster Versuch, ein Bild einzulinken:

[Mystifikator]

Technisch sind wir seit gestern übern Berg.
Man beachte die Stochastik, die auf diesem Nivea eigentlich immer einen Trendwechsel eingeleitet hat.


Ausserdem haben wir gesten den kurzfristigen Abwärtstrend verlassen.


Sehr positiv erscheint mir auch, dass der Trend schon vor dem zentralen Wiederstand bei 4,35-4,40€ gedreht hat.

Viele Grüsse
Mysti

[Mystifikator]

Ob es mehr wird als eine Gegenreaktion im Abwärtstrend,
muss man natürlich abwarten, aber kurzfristig geht es m.E. erstmal nach oben.


Viele Grüsse

Mysti

[keepitshort]

Quelle:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/droke060603.html

der Silber-Chart sagt alles:

[Alpha_User]

@ Mystifikator

Hi,
wie kommt man an die Charts die du in #45 verwendest ?
Bei der Dresdner Bank habe ich alles abgesucht, aber nichts gefunden.

Danke für Hinweise

Alpha_User

[keepitshort]

die Charts von Zihlmann zum Silber sind auch ganz gut
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/zihlmann060503.html

[Mystifikator]

@ Alpha _User

Die gibt es bei der Dresdner Bank offiziell auch gar nicht, soviel ich weiss.
Da muss man selber basteln.



Für Silber in Euro verwendest du diese URL:

http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts/charts_pvk?Rc=XAGEUR%3D…

Für Silber in US Dollar diese:

http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts/charts_pvk?Rc=XAG%3D&Ti…



Wenn du in der URL andere Werte einträgst, kannst du die dann manuell einstellen.
Schau dir die URL mal ganz genau an.

Zs=30 - - - - - ist der Zeitraum hier also 30 Tagen, Zs=1 für intraday.
An=MACD&An2=SlowStoch - - - - - sind die Indikatoren, "none" für keine Anzeige
avg1=100&avg2=200 - - - - - sind die gleitenden Durchschnitte, "none" für keine Anzeige Beispiel: avg1=none&avg2=none
Ho=410&Br=746&ChartHoehe=258 - - - - - die grösse der Charts


Den Rest habe ich noch nicht rausgefunden.

Wenn du ein Zeitintervall von 1, also intraday wählst, müsste das sogar realtime sein.
Einfach mal probieren.


Viele Grüsse

Mysti

[ThaiGuru]

@Mystifikator

Dieser von Dir in der FAZ entdeckte in sich positive Bericht zum Silber Geschehen, sollte auch noch in vollem Umfang hier gepostet werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.faz.net/s/Rub3B5979848A5C48F18F2FF729A7211ACE/Doc…

Rohstoff-1x1

Silber glänzt matter als Gold

21. März 2003 Mit Silber war in den vergangenen Jahren kein richtiger Staat zu machen. Der aktuelle Preis von 4,34 Dollar für die Feinunze wurde auch schon in den frühen 70er Jahren notiert und ist die seit 1990 weitgehend gültige Preisrange.

Die Lethargie, die sich in den relativ stabilen Preisen ausdrückt, wurde auch nicht nachhaltig dadurch beeinträchtigt, dass sich mit Warren Buffett, Bill Gates und George Soros die reichsten Männer dieser Welt seit einiger Zeit zu einem Engagement im Silber entschieden haben.

Noch keine Renaissance in Sicht

Dabei hatte Silber in den 70er Jahren einmal einen legendären Ruf erworben. Verantworltich dafür waren damals die Aktivitäten der Gebrüder Hunt. Diese hatten mit massiven Käufen den Silbermarkt derart manipuliert, dass die Preise von 1,50 Dollar im Jahr 1972 bis auf 48,70 Dollar im Jahr 1980 explodierten, ehe der Markt dann in sich zusammenbrach.

(Was dem Author dieses Berichtes anscheinend nicht bekannt z…

Von Turbulenzen dieser Art ist dieser Tage wenig zu spüren. Von der teilweise zu beobachtenden Renaissance einzelner Rohstoffe ist das Silber jedenfalls kaum erfasst worden. Auch den zwischenzeitlichen Aufschwung beim Gold hat es nur unterproportional mitgemacht. Und nach der jüngst zu verzeichnenden Preisabschwächung bleibt sogar abzuwarten, ob sich die zu Jahresbeginn von 18 Analysten erwartete Preisverbesserung auf 4,92 Dollar im Jahresvergleich realisieren lässt.

Chronisches Angebotsdefizit

Bei der seit Jahren müden Preisentwicklung spielt vermutlich eine wesentliche Rolle, dass Silber nicht mehr als Spekulationsinstrument wahrgenommen wird, sondern mehr als Industriemetall. Und da die Weltkonjunktur nicht richtig läuft, kommt eben auch der Preis nicht in Schwung.

Allerdings mutet die Preisstabilität vor dem Hintergrund schon erstaunlich an, dass das Angebot die Nachfrage seit Jahren übersteigt. So schätzen Experten wegen steigender Nachfrage das Angebotsdefizit im Jahr 2003 auf 163,0 Millionen Unzen. Das ist nicht nur der höchste Wert aller Zeiten sondern wäre auch die Verängerung der seit dem Jahr 1990 immer wieder jedes Jahr zu konstatierenden Defizite. Da sich die Lagerbestände gleichzeitig auf einem tiefen Niveau bewegen, könnte die Rechnung der Milliardäre Buffett, Gates und Soros vielleicht doch noch irgend wann aufgehen.

Silber ist hinter Gold zurückgefallen

Doch noch scheint die Zeiten für das Silber nicht gekommen zu sein. Bis es soweit ist, können sich die Investoren mit dem Studium der Geschichte und der Hintergrund des Edelmetalls beschäftigen. Bei diesen Recherchen, wobei der seit 1990 vom The Silver Institute publizierte World Silver Survey 2002 wertvolle Hilfe leisten kann, werden sie feststellen, dass Silber nach Kupfer und Gold das dritte Gebrauchsmetall war, welches die Menschen benutzten.

Dabei galt Silber zunächst als wertvoller als Gold, doch dieses Verhältnis hat sich längst gewandelt und im relativen Vergleich ist Silber in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter zurückgefallen. Dabei hat vielleicht auch eine Rolle gespielt, dass Silber zwar ein seltenes Element ist, es aber etwa 20mal häufiger als Gold vorkommt.

Silber hat viele brauchbare Eigenschaften

Das chemische Symbol "Ag" für Silber, das einen Schmelzpunkt von 961,93 Grad Celcius hat, wurde von J.J. Berzelius im Jahre 1814 eingeführt und es steht an 67. Stelle der Elementhäufigkeit. Allgemein handelt es sich bei Silber um ein weißglänzendes und weiches Edelmetall. Es ist nach Gold das dehnbarste Metall und kann zu feinen, blaugrün durchscheinenden Folien von Blattsilber ausgewalzt werden. Das Edelmetall besitzt die beste elektrische und thermische Leitfähigkeit aller Metalle.

Es wird mit den meisten anderen Metallen - mit Ausnahme von Eisen und Cobalt legiert. Silber besitzt von allen Substanzen der Erde das höchste Reflexions- und Absorptionsvermögen für Licht. Diese Eigenschaft erklärt den strahlend weißen Metallglanz des Silbers. Nachgefragt und genutzt wird es vor allem in der Industrie, der Fotografie sowie der Silberwaren- und Schmuckindustrie.

Leicht manipulierbarer Markt

Die größten Produzentenländer sind Mexiko, USA, Peru, Kanada und Australien und als die größten Unternehmen gelten Industrias Penoles aus Mexiko, Polska Miedz aus Polen und BHP Minerals aus Australien.

In manchen Publikationen wird der Gesamtwert aller Silbermünzen und -barren, die jetzt für den Markt verfügbar sind, auf nur ungefähr 3,5 Milliarden Dollar beziffert. Bei 2,5 Milliarden Dollar ist die jährliche Produktion des Silbers um ein Achtel geringer als die des Goldmarktes.

Auch dies ist ein Indiz dafür, wie schnell der Preis in Bewegung geraten kann, wenn sich erst einmal mehr Investoren als nur die genannten Milliardäre dazu entscheiden sollten, dass Silber wieder eine lohnende Geldanlage sein könnte.

[Mystifikator]

@ ThaiGuru

Dann gehören hier aber auch alle Charts rein.

Tag - - - Woche - - - Monat


Quartal - - - Jahr - - - alle Daten



Viele Grüsse

Mysti

[Alpha_User]

@ Mysti

Funktioniert ! Toller Trick !
Vielen Dank !!!

Alpha_User

[manfred1_I]

Bei ebay soll es noch ganz wenige Silberbarren
1.000 gramm geben.

[fiesje]

ich hab mal nachgezählt

es sind sechs stück a 1 kilogramm
und einer von 5 kilogramm

gruss fiesje

[Neono]

Ein Mix aus Silber und Gold ist doch auch nicht schlecht, oder?

Cardero Resources hat beides und super Bohrergebnisse

http://www.cardero.com/properties/condor_yacu/

Sollte es möglich sein, diese Resourcen wirtschaftlich abzubauen, was im Moment geprüft wird, dürfte sich der Preis für Cardero vervielfachen. Steigt dann auch noch der Goldpreis weiter und Silber zieht nach, gibt es ein Feuerwerk. Cardero gibt es nur an der TSX unter dem Kürzel V.CDU. Aktuell zahlt man CAD1,63 bei. Durchschnittsvolumen ca 60000Stk/ Handelstag, 20,446,935 Aktien sind ausgegeben.

Vielleicht sagen dem Ein oder Anderen von euch die Namen etwas

Current Directors and Officers:
Henk Van Alphen (President & Director)
John A. Toffan (Director)
Ken M. Carter (Director)
Leonard J. Harris (Director)
Marla Mees (Corporate Secretary)

Corporate Address:
Suite 900 475 Howe Street
Vancouver, B.C. V6C 2B3

Good luck!

Neono

[Wasserzeichen]

@Hallo Mysti

Danke für den super chartlink!(Arbeite mich gerade nach längerer "Edelmetallabstinenz" wieder in die Silbermaterie ein...)

Das mit der "1" für den intradaychart klappt auch gut:

[Mystifikator]

Hi Wasserzeichen,

ist halt nur etwas Tüftelei.
Wenn du andere Indikatoren verwenden möchtest, kannst du noch Mom für Momentum und RSI für Relative Stärke eingeben.
(Sonst haben die nur noch Vol für Volumen, das bringt aber nichts.)

Ich verstehe nur nicht, warum die Dresdner Bank das nicht offiziell anbietet, wenn die die Daten eh schon haben.


Viele Grüsse

Mysti

[bluemoons]

THE MERITS OF BUYING $ILVER NOW kazvestor
6/5/2003 7:04:02 PM
Note that I am simply an individual investor. Read my report below and use your own sense of logic and common sense. If you have any questions/comments or want to discuss the details of any section below feel free to post and/or shoot me a message.

I`ll be surprised if such a long post is accepted by the system but here goes.....


THE MERITS OF BUYING $ILVER NOW

Here is most of the $ilver “story” below with many web site references. It involves the use of logic and common sense to analyze the events surrounding $ilver.

I. $ilver Supply/Demand imbalance: The #1 reason to buy $ilver is because there has been consistently more user demand than producer supply for 14 years. During this time over 1500 Moz. (Million ounces) has been consumed from the world $ilver stockpiles and used for industrial applications (mostly electronics), photography, jewelry & $ilverware, and coins & medals. Last year 586 Moz. was mined from the Earth and 185 Moz. was recycled (mostly from photographical $ilver applications) for a total supply of 771 Moz. Meanwhile the total demand was 838 Moz. Therefore last year 67 Moz. was consumed from world stockpiles of $ilver. After 14 years of deficits the world stockpiles are extremely low. It is impossible for this deficit to continue much longer. Supply must soon come into equilibrium with demand. Either demand must fall substantially and/or supply must increase substantially. $ilver is essential for our electronics rich world with new applications and uses for $ilver consistently being discovered (as you can see at http://www.silverinstitute.org/newsdesk.html such as http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr10oct02.html and http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr11apr03.html ) with very little likelihood of a significant decline in industrial demand going forward. Therefore supply must increase to meet the demand. However, starting new mines to produce $ilver costs $7-$10+ per ounce. Therefore the price of $ilver MUST go up to encourage new mines to be tapped. It is smart to own something which has and will continue to have more demand than supply at a given price. This simple supply/demand disequilibrium analysis is mentioned by Warren Buffett as the main reason he bought a large chunk of the world stockpile of $ilver http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb03981.html

II. $ilver is scarce: There is very little physical $ilver that can be purchased for less than $5/oz. possibly less than 10 Moz., definitely less than 100 Moz. which is small change in today`s investment world. Even up to $10 there is most likely less than 500 Moz. available for new investment.
Proof of scarcity:
1) The U.S. govt. had 2500 Moz. of $ilver left after it discontinued making 90% $ilver dimes/quarters/half dollar coins over 30 years ago. As of the end of 2002 it had none left. In 2003 the U.S. govt. is making market purchases averaging almost 1 Moz. per month to mint it`s now popular American Eagle 1 oz. coins. http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr06aug02.html
2) The official Comex warehouses for investor $ilver storage in the U.S. used to have over 300 Moz. 10 years ago http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/prsinv.htm
Now the Comex has 105 Moz. http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp
3) European bullion bank vaults had over 550 Moz. in 1990 and less than
300Moz. at the end of 2001 (of which 129 Moz. is owned by Warren Buffett).

4) Total government stockpiles of $ilver is estimated to be under 100 Moz. after
4 years of very heavy selling (mostly by China).
I expect there will soon be publicized shortage of $ilver. You definitely want to own $ilver before any shortage is widely publicized.

III. $ilver is cheap: Despite the scarcity of $ilver that has developed from 14 years of supply deficits the price is at all-time lows ($4.55). At its peak in 1980 $ilver went over $50/oz. (equivalent to $150 in today`s dollars) when a small group tried to corner the market in it. You can review price data charts for the last 20 years by going to http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveSilver.html
$ilver is especially cheap relative to gold. At various times in the last 30 years 20-100 ounces of $ilver could buy you 1 oz. gold. Right now you need 80 oz. $ilver to buy 1 oz. gold; thus making $ilver relatively cheaper. http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/AuAG1lt.gif
One of the main reasons why $ilver remained cheap in the 1990s despite big supply deficits is because most investors were selling their $ilver holdings to buy into the popular stock market companies. This selling of $ilver peaked in 2000 along with the stock market. From 1999 to now governments (mostly China) have helped fill the supply/demand gap by selling their holdings. Going forward, China should curtail its selling of $ilver since it realizes it`s rapidly growing economy will soon be needing more $ilver that it can produce internally.
Another important reason why $ilver prices have remained low is because most mines that produce $ilver produce it as a byproduct. Mining companies that primarily produce zinc, lead, copper, and gold often extract $ilver as well. In fact 70-75% of the $ilver mined around the world is a byproduct of mining other metals.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/production.html
This results in the supply of $ilver being inelastic to the price of $ilver. Whether the price of $ilver goes up or down substantially its supply will not vary much. Effectively the supply of $ilver is governed more by the prices of zinc, lead, copper, and gold. If the prices of those metals are lower, some mines will reduce mining activities and thereby mine less $ilver as well; and vise versa. So, although some primary producing mines have closed operations over the last 13 years due to being unprofitable operations under $5/oz. the supply of $ilver has not been significantly affected since primary $ilver mines make up a minority of $ilver production. A price of over $7 is needed to encourage new primary production of $ilver.

IV. The smartest people own $ilver now: At major turning points of asset prices the overwhelming majority of investors are always wrong. After a 23 year bear market in $ilver, most investors have sold their holdings. Those that remain are disciplined savvy long-term investors like Warren Buffett that bought 129 Moz. in 1997 at $5.05/oz. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb03981.html
Other billionaires that are invested in $ilver include George Soros, Lawrence Tisch, and Bill Gates who own shares over various $ilver mining stocks. So if we look at the 105 Moz. that is in storage at the Comex warehouses as mentioned above; it is likely that over 90 Moz. maybe 100+ Moz. is owned by people that will not sell anywhere near these prices. Most will not sell even if $ilver goes to $10 next month.

V. Major short positions in $ilver: Another major reason for the incredibly low price in $ilver is that there have been massive amounts of shorting of $ilver in the last 15 years. There have been 2 major reasons for $ilver short selling over the years.
1) $ilver producers enter into forward sale contracts to make delivery of future production at prearranged prices. For example, the biggest U.S. producer and shorter of $ilver is Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE). They produce 20 Moz. of $ilver per year but were short almost 50 Moz. in $ilver at the end of 2002. Effectively that`s 2.5 years of pre-sold production which limits future supply. In February ABX made a press release that included the mention that they would start reducing their short position in various ways including making delivery on their forward contracts using current production. This means most of their 20 Moz. production will not be supplied to the market this year but will go to fulfill their previous delivery contracts. Thus adding to this year`s supply deficit numbers.
2) The leading independent $ilver analyst Ted Butler (http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html) discovered $ilver leasing around 7 years ago. With $ilver leasing, an institution leases $ilver from a major holder (mostly government central banks) and pays them a small interest rate of 1-2%. Seemed like easy money for the central bank that had the $ilver collecting dust and storage fees so they loved the idea. For the institution that leases the $ilver they simply sold the $ilver into the marketplace and used the proceeds for investments yielding 6-10% thereby making a nice profit spread. A problem here is that most of these leases will never be repaid since the $ilver has been sold and consumed and there is not enough $ilver left out there to repay these leases back with $ilver.
Then we have a massive short position on the Comex futures exchange. Each Comex $ilver futures contract represents 5000 oz. and there are around 80,000 open contracts. That`s 400 Moz. which is more than what the world has today. The thing is most of these contracts are simply rolled over into the future when they come due. Few of them end up with the long side of the contract demanding delivery from the short side.
The detailed analysis of short activity in the $ilver market is very complicated but the result is that it has caused the price of $ilver to stay at an artificially extremely low price. It also means that future supply will be curtailed due to these pre-sales.

VI. Renewed investor demand: After a 20+ year bear market in $ilver the average mainstream investor has had complete apathy for $ilver as an investment since its been “dead money” for so long. Plus there have been no brokerage firms “pushing” $ilver as an investment. Until about 10 years ago a portfolio allocation of 5-10% in gold and $ilver was considered prudent by almost all financial advisors and brokerage firms. The 90`s mega stock market bull wiped that allocation off everyone`s sheets. However, since the pop of the stock market bubble investors have started moving back to gold and $ilver as defensive investments. 2003 has shown an acceleration in investor demand for $ilver. Some proof below:



1) Data from the U.S. mint showing a big increase in demand for the American
$ilver Eagles:
In 1999 sales doubled to 9 Moz. from an average of 4-5 Moz. in the 1990s due to the Y2K scare. But that increased pace stayed with us....
2000 sales were 9.1 Moz
2001 sales were 8.8 Moz.
2002 sales were 10.5 Moz.
2003 1st Quarter sales were 3.656 Moz. which is an annual rate of 14.6 Moz http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cf…

2) The most respected name in precious metals fabrication, Johnson Matthey,
started producing 100 oz. bars for retail investors for the first time in 15 years to meet the renewed investor demand for $ilver http://www.amark.com/newproducts/16.htm
3) One of the most popular low-cost retail dealers
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver
was often temporarily sold out of parts of their $ilver inventories early this year. In March they even had to switch their primary supplier mint from Northwest Territorial Mint to Amark because NWTM was not able to keep up with the huge increase in demand for $ilver from Tulving customers. I have also seen notes that some local $ilver dealers around the U.S. keep running out of inventory as well.
4) There is a closed-end mutual fund (CEF) that invests in physical gold and
$ilver (no other fund does this). Closed-end mutual funds always trade at a discount or premium to the actual Net Asset Value of the fund. The degree to which a fund trades at a discount or premium is directly associated with the enthusiasm for that type of an investment by the public. During the precious metals major bear market from 1980 till 2001 CEF mostly traded at a discount. Since the end of 2001 CEF started trading at a premium and has remained that way. This shows us the renewed investor interest in $ilver and that we are most likely at the beginning of a major bull market in $ilver.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/data_through_ince…
5) Mexico (the largest $ilver producing country) is considering adding $ilver
coins “Libertads” in mass to be used as money:
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/

VII. Negative real interest rates: Historically, times of negative real interest rates (when inflation is higher than short-term interest rates) are very bullish for precious metal investments. There is simple logic behind this. Precious metals generally go up with inflation. Now investors are offered 1-2% short-term rates while inflation is 3-5%. So some investors recognize that they should own precious metals that should appreciate at least 3-5% to match inflation compared to only earning 1-2% interest. This investor appetite should increase greatly if capital gains on precious metals are taxed at 15% compared to interest income that is taxed at up to 35%.

VIII. $ilver IS MONEY: The 2nd best reason to own $ilver is as protection against inflation. The benefit of owning $ilver (as well as gold) during inflationary times is that it will hold its purchasing power. $ilver (and gold) has been considered MONEY in most places for all of human civilization. In fact the word for money in many languages is the same as the word for $ilver. While gold was used to settle large transactions (mostly between nations) $ilver was used for everyday transactions. $ilver is real money that cannot be inflated without the heavy costs of mining and refining it out of the Earth. This is in sharp contrast to the currencies around the world today, especially the U.S. dollar. It is very easy to “print” dollars out of thin air which is being done consistently. In fact here is the dictionary definition of inflation: “A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services”. 30 years ago the United States went off of the gold and $ilver money standard and increased the printing of dollars. The money supply almost doubled from 1972 to 1978. Common sense tells us that the more dollars exist, the less the value per dollar. This is the basic meaning of inflation. During this period of unabashed increase in money supply the price of $ilver went from under $2 in 1972 to over $6 in 1978. Then it defied a “normal” price of $7-$10 and continued to a high of $50/oz. when a group tried to corner the market on $ilver. Of course this corner failed and the price crashed to more normal levels. Meanwhile our government (through the Federal Reserve Bank) woke up and decided to cease the massive expansion of the money supply. This was the beginning of the 20 year big bear market in $ilver. The last time $ilver traded over $10 was in 1987.
We are at the very beginning of a renewed period of hard asset inflation. The Federal Reserve is conducting a highly inflationary policy of low interest rates and heavy new printing of dollars. This manipulation of dollars has already devalued our dollar by 30% against the Euro currency in 1 year. Gold is up 15% in 1 year. The average commodity is up 20% in 1 year as measured by the popular Goldman Sachs commodity index: http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.asp?r=&type=future…
Meanwhile $ilver is actually slightly down over the last year. This offers current buyers an extremely low price entry point.
Inflation of our dollars is simply a hidden way to tax holders of dollars. The spending habits of our government are gluttonous and ever growing. The citizens of the U.S. are already very heavily taxed. Our government already has accumulated a colossal debt load by borrowing $trillions in the debt markets. Yet govt. spending is increasing while its revenues are decreasing. So what happens? Effectively the govt. is now printing dollars out of thin air to pay for the shortfall in revenues versus expenditures. This process will now be accelerated with the new tax cuts. This excessive printing of dollars is devaluating the dollar at a rapid pace. This is very appealing politically. The tax cuts make the citizens happier and shift the burden of the monstrous government budget deficit on all holders of U.S. dollars. Since almost half the holders of dollars (especially U.S. govt. bonds) are not U.S. citizens, the burden of the dollar devaluation is partially put on the backs of foreigners. As the dollar depreciates, it follows that the price of $ilver (which is stated in dollar terms) must appreciate over time.

The U.S. is now running a trade deficit of around $500 billion per year. This essentially means that we are importing more goods and services than we are exporting. The deficit is filled by exporting dollars (mostly in the form of debt) to other (mostly Asian) countries. We are literally exporting dollars at almost $1,000,000 per MINUTE. Thus far these Asian exporting countries (mostly China now) have been “suckered” into taking unbacked paper dollars to finance our consumption oriented culture. Now they are being suckered in even more by accepting extremely low interest rates on their dollar holdings. It is probable that these foreign countries awash with low yielding IOU`s (dollars) will stop accepting dollars as payment by quickly selling dollars to buy hard assets as new dollars come in. This will accelerate the devaluation of the dollar, causing inflation.

Additionally, it is politically easy to engineer inflation because the overwhelming majority of Americans are in debt (usually heavy debt). Holders of debt embrace inflation since their repayments will be easier to make. In the United States: consumers, corporations, and the govt. have racked up immense amounts of debt. This massive debt is increasing at a huge pace due to the (manipulative) low interest rate environment. In fact our culture strongly encourages debt. Everyone gets endless credit card promotions in the mail. The American net savings rate is near zero. It is almost unheard of to purchase a new car outright let alone a house. Debt has become a huge part of our society. The current American very high standard of living is financed by and very dependant on debt. How many people would be driving $40,000+ cars if they were not able to finance them? Who will cry foul as high inflation takes hold in the dollar? Most of the net creditors of dollar debt are foreigners. Why would the govt. politicians care what they think or how they get hurt? What are they going to do to the only super-power left in the world?

As you can see, the path of least resistance is high inflation. $ilver (and gold) is your best protection against this rapid devaluation of the dollar. In the 1970`s real estate also protected investors from the inflation of the dollar. However, today`s situation is very different. Today`s real estate valuations are already inflated due to the credit/debt bubble. Today`s real estate prices are very dependent on buyers getting credit at a low interest rate to fund the purchase. When strong inflation takes hold and interest rates are forced higher there will be a triple whammy for real estate (especially homes). First, most potential buyers will walk away from the market when faced with 8%+ rates compared to [6% rates. This will be a big decrease in demand. Second, banks will be more cautious on making low down payment loans. Third, banks will become more cautious about making any types of loans with long-term fixed interest rates since they will be getting repaid with rapidly depreciating dollars. If you imagine yourself in the shoes of a banking entity you will see how dangerous this is to the currently high housing prices that are completely based on debt.


In the very long-run the whole basis behind having a currency without any hard asset backing it up is flawed and fraudulent. There is nothing stopping our govt. from printing unlimited amounts of dollars. In fact this printing power is necessary for a govt. that often buys votes through unmerited handouts. The extreme of this is a socialistic or worse a communistic govt. that takes money from productive individuals and gives it to unproductive “needy” individuals (minus taking a percentage for itself) without regard to merit. This is the opposite of capitalism based on freedom and liberty. Our paper dollars are now essentially worthless except for our faith in the govt. As our govt. moves more away from capitalism there will come a time when its motives are publicly put into question. You certainly do not want to own dollars at that time. Ironically, our popular Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan understands the inherent fraud of dollars unbacked by gold or $ilver as you can see by the very interesting article he wrote 40 years ago that I strongly advise reading:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/greenspan041998.html
Most likely there will come a time when most of us will be billionaires but a gallon of milk will cost $25,000! A new currency will have to be issued that is backed by real gold and $ilver. Since currently all world currencies are not backed by hard assets the same will happened worldwide. The biggest losers will be holders of fixed-income credit securities (mostly bonds) and cash.
The inflationary risks themselves warrant $ilver (and/or gold) ownership at 10% of your net worth if only as “insurance”.

IX. $ilver going to $50+/oz.: I believe $ilver`s intrinsic value is worth around $15/oz. right now. As a value investor I love buying undervalued good assets then selling them out around what I think they are worth without regret when they go much higher. However, in the case of $ilver I expect to sell much of my holdings at prices well above the intrinsic value. Below are the reasons why $ilver should catapult well past its intrinsic value for a period of time. All are based on the development of a $ilver shortage:
1) $ilver industrial demand and mining supply is inelastic. That means the amount demanded and supplied is barely affected by changes in the price of $ilver. I explained the inelasticity of mining supply at the end of part III. $ilver industrial demand is almost completely inelastic. $ilver is an essential and irreplaceable part of many electronic devices such as computers. The amount of $ilver used to make each electronics device is miniscule. A $2000 new Dell computer has nowhere near 1 ounce of $ilver in it so it does not matter to Dell whether it costs $1 or $20 worth of $ilver to produce 1 computer. Dell would even pay $100 for the tiny amount of $ilver it needs for each computer since without that $ilver it is impossible to build that computer. The same is try for $ilver application in photography. Also most of the cost of $ilver jewelry is based on the labor it takes to make it into various shapes so a price of $50/oz. may only result in a doubling of the price of $ilver jewelry which is inexpensive anyway. So the overall fabrication demand for $ilver should hardly drop at all even with a tenfold increase in the price of $ilver. While the mining supply of $ilver will not increase greatly since 70% of the $ilver mined is a small byproduct from mining other metals (assuming the prices of those metals do not rise substantially).
2) Most users of $ilver operate under Just In Time inventory management. JIT was an innovation by Japanese firms 25 years ago and made a standard in corporate culture in the 1980s to reduce capital expenditure costs. Companies no longer keep large amounts of raw materials that are needed to manufacture their products. They have efficient arrangements with suppliers to make delivery “just in time” for production thus freeing up capital that used to be just sitting around in the form of raw materials that would not get used for many months. The $ilver shortage will be a serious problem for them since some will fail to receive all the $ilver they need from their usual suppliers. For many companies a lack of $ilver would result in a halt of production. This situation will probably encourage most $ilver using companies to aggressively buy up as much $ilver as they can for fear of delays in production. Most companies will pay ANY PRICE needed to obtain physical $ilver right away. Wouldn`t you do the same in their shoes?
3) When a shortage of $ilver becomes widely publicized and the price races over $10/oz. an immense group of momentum traders/investors whose strategy is to “buy high & sell higher” will be looking to buy into it. Tens (maybe hundreds) of Billions dollars will be chasing after less than $5 Billion of $ilver.
4) Most investors naturally do not quickly sell an asset that is quickly appreciating in value thus adding to the shortage.
5) Recognizing the shortage, enough money will want to buy physical $ilver by looking to take delivery on Comex $ilver futures contracts to cause the failure of shorts to make delivery of $ilver on their obligations against these contracts since they do not have enough $ilver. The result will be that $ilver futures contracts will trade at a substantial discount to physical $ilver because no one will know when deliveries will actually be made.
6) When $ilver goes over $10 there will be a lot of new (and old) primary $ilver mines that will be started. However, it takes 1-3 years from the time a decision is made to start a $ilver mine till the first ounce of $ilver is sold into the market. Therefore this future supply will not help the immediate $ilver shortage situation.
7) As prices approach and surpass $50/oz. there will be a flood of small coin holders looking to cash in their coins. They will look to sell them to local dealers who will then sell them to smelters that convert them into $ilver suitable for industrial uses and/or to make delivery on the Comex. However, there will be a bottleneck since the few smelting operations that exist can only smelt a limited amount of $ilver per month. Therefore the large quantities of $ilver coins will not impede the price rise in $ilver immediately.

All these reasons combined make it quite possible that $ilver will go to well over $100/oz. at its peak. It is impossible to say how high $ilver can go.


Now is the perfect time to buy $ilver. Not only does it offer explosive potential due to scarcity and protection from inflation, but it is now so cheap that the downside risk in price is negligible. It is better to own $ilver years early than 1 day late. $ilver will still be good buy at $6, $7, $10 per ounce; but the risk/reward ratio will never be this low again. Ownership of $ilver does not offer you interest/dividends while you hold it and it incurs storage costs of up to 1% per year but these negative factors are tiny compared to the positive ones.



Ways to buy $ilver:

There are several ways to participate in the coming rise of $ilver prices. Each has advantages and disadvantages. The best ways to invest are dependant on individual situations.
1) $ilver mining company stocks: Since the majority of people today are very familiar with stocks, many will choose to purchase $ilver stocks to speculate on the price of $ilver. There are only 3 major primary $ilver mining stocks. Their symbols are SIL, PAAS, and SSRI. Additionally there are 2 more companies that produce a lot of $ilver but also produce gold. Those are CDE and HL. SIL has George Soros as a major investor and his brother Paul Soros is on the board of directors. PAAS has Bill Gates as a major shareholder. The company web sites offer a wealth of information about $ilver in their annual reports http://www.apexsilver.com/ http://www.panamericansilver.com/
I believe direct physical $ilver ownership is better than owning $ilver mining company stocks if the $ilver shortage situation that I am expecting forces the price to explode very high and very fast. These companies cannot take advantage of a fast run-up in prices like an individual holder of physical $ilver can since they cannot increase production substantially in a short period of time. Plus their mines are mostly located in countries that are not politically stable and may make detrimental moves against a mining operation that is making windfall gains by selling $ilver at $30-$100+ per ounce. Some of those countries may increases taxes and/or tariffs or even nationalize the mines yelling that these natural resources belong to the people of the country. These mining stocks are better suited towards a gradual rise in price that stays high but not too high. Plus you have the risk that management will make poor decisions on your behalf and/or take extreme bonuses in the form of stock options and dilute your ownership stake.

2) Central Fund of Canada. I mentioned this closed-end mutual earlier that owns physical gold and $ilver. It trades under the symbol CEF and is as easy to buy as any other stock. The main disadvantage of the fund is that only 40% of its assets are in $ilver (the rest is gold). While gold will do great in protecting you against inflation, it should significantly under perform $ilver especially when the $ilver shortage hits. So an investment in CEF is a “diluted” way of investing in $ilver. The other disadvantage is that it now trades at a premium (which fluctuates daily) to its net worth. Currently the premium is 7%. At 10%+ premium it becomes significantly overvalued relative to the underlying precious metals it owns. http://cefa.com/scripts/fundstat.asp?id=cef

3) Physical $ilver at stored Comex: $ilver that is stored at Comex is grouped into Comex warehouse warrant receipts. Each warrant consists of 5 1000 oz. bars of .999 pure industrial $ilver (each bar varies in precise weight and has a unique serial number). For most people this is the best way to invest in $ilver. The easiest way to buy Comex $ilver is through a precious metals brokerage firm such as http://www.fidelitrade.com/
that charges around 1% commission. You should request the $ilver be deposited at Comex and the warrants of ownership be mailed to you. It costs around $20/month/5 1000 oz. bars to store your $ilver at Comex. Since 75% of the total Comex $ilver is stored in New York City which is clearly a target for terrorist attacks it may be wise to have your Comex $ilver stored at the only warehouse outside of NYC which is in Delaware. Fidelitrade deals directly with that Delaware warehouse. Since recently, you are allowed to purchase 1000 oz. bars in your IRA. The biggest IRA custodian that specializes in this is http://www.churchtrust.com .

The most cost effective way to buy Comex $ilver is by taking the time to open an account with a futures/commodities brokerage firm and send them money. Buy a nearby $ilver futures contract(s), pay around $15-$35 commission per contract. Pay an extra $50-$100 per contract to take delivery of the warehouse warrants of ownership. It comes out to a cost of less than $.02 per ounce compared to up to $.05 per ounce by purchasing the bars directly. Another good broker for 1000 oz. bars is Amark.com which is probably the biggest $ilver wholesale dealer and has been around for a long time.
If $ilver goes to $50 you will be able to sell these bars at the spot price.

4) $ilver futures: This is the most efficient way to actively trade $ilver; which I would not suggest doing. If you want to speculate in $ilver using high leverage this is the way to go. You can control 5000 oz. of $ilver with less than $2000. This effectively gives you more than 12:1 leverage if you want it. I believe this type of $ilver investment is not good for most people since it encourages buying more than one can handle and possibly taking big losses on small pullbacks in price. More importantly in a major $ilver shortage $ilver futures contracts will be trading at a big discount to physical $ilver prices.
5) $ilver coins and bars: This is “retail” $ilver in many forms ranging from 1 oz. coins to 100 oz. bars. This is a good way to own $ilver if you want to keep some of your holdings privately for whatever reason. Also some people (not including me) own a lot of $ilver (and gold) because they think a financial collapse is coming whereby regular purchases would only be made in $ilver and gold. As an investment, retail $ilver is very poor. You have to pay more than a 10% premium when you buy. Then you have to accept a discount when you sell if prices went up a lot. In 1980 when the price of $ilver went to $50 people that wanted to sell their $ilver coins were usually offered only $20-$25 per ounce.


http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=118385…

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Barren sehen zudem noch schön aus, und sind mit ca. 3 Kilo recht handlich. Dass Silber so billig wie vor 30 Jahren ist, wisst Ihr ja schon.

Auf was wartet Ihr eigentlich noch?



http://www.amark.com/newproducts/16.htm

mailto:[e-mail]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
For Information Contact:
Deborah Spinosa, Chief Operating Officer
A-Mark Precious Metals, Inc.
100 Wilshire Boulevard, Third Floor
Santa Monica, California 90401

A-Mark and Johnson Matthey Respond to Surge in Silver Demand JM Resumes Production of 100-oz. Silver Bars After 15 Years SANTA MONICA, CA MARCH 5, 2002 A-Mark Precious Metals (www.amark.com) has announced the immediate availability of the Johnson Matthey 100-ounce .999 pure silver bar, a popular precious metals product that has been unavailable since 1988.

Although 100-ounce JM silver bars have either been completely unavailable or in very limited supply through secondary market sources since the cessation of their production by Johnson Matthey in the late 1980s, A-Mark’s customers, who comprise the largest precious metals dealers network in the world, find that many of their investors prefer to invest in Johnson Matthey 100-ounce .999 pure silver bars because they consider it to be the most efficient and profitable way to invest in large volumes of silver bullion. Since 1988, a few other companies have produced 100-ounce silver bars but none has the universal reputation for certified purity, integrity and experience that is so highly respected in the JM hallmark.

Now, for the first time in nearly 15 years, precious metals retailers will be able to obtain these popular bars by calling or emailing A-Mark’s traders.

“Our customers have been asking for these bars for years and we’ve been unable to supply them. Now we can say yes and make a lot of people happy; our customers, their clients and us here at A-Mark, because we pride ourselves on service and being able to supply the needs of the market. We’re especially happy that we’ve been able to work out a distribution arrangement with Johnson Matthey that allows us to provide these bars immediately to our customers,” said Rand LeShay, Senior Vice President of A-Mark Precious Metals, Inc.

Johnson Matthey is the world’s largest and oldest continually operating refiner of precious metals. The Johnson Matthey hallmark is arguably the most recognized and highly respected precious metals refining symbol in the world. A senior refinery official at Johnson Matthey’s Precious Metals Division said, “We’re very excited about resuming the production of our 100-ounce .999 pure silver bars. Johnson Matthey and A-Mark have enjoyed a long, professional relationship together and we’re glad our two companies can collaborate on bringing this popular product to the investing market. A-Mark has shown us that there is a definite demand for this product and we’re happy to be able to meet and supply that demand through them. We’ll be shipping them the first 100-ounce pure silver bar produced by Johnson Matthey in almost 15 years.”

The arrangement facilitating the distribution of the Johnson Matthey 100-ounce silver bars marks yet another milestone in the 37-year history of A-Mark Precious Metals, Inc. A-Mark is the largest distributor of gold in coin and bar form in North America and is an official distributor for government mints throughout the world including The United States Mint, The Perth Mint of Australia, The Royal Canadian Mint and The South African Mint.

Recently, A-Mark Financial (www.amarkfin.com), A-Mark’s parent company, was recognized on Forbes Magazine’s 500 Top Private Companies List as the 62nd largest privately held company in the United States and by The Los Angeles Business Journal as the 2nd largest privately held company in the Los Angeles area by sales.

Precious metals professionals who wish to acquire Johnson Matthey 100-ounce .999 pure silver bars can do so by calling or emailing the A-Mark trading desk at [e-mail] between the hours of 5:20 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Pacific time.

Copyright © 2002 by A-Mark Precious Metals, Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1055341794.php



COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks

By: Theodore Butler

There’s more to the picture,

Than meets the eye,

Hey, hey. My, my.

Neil Young

My article about the recent large movements of COMEX silver inventories and the response from the regulators generated some interesting e-mail and phone conversations. I’d like to discuss what these stocks of silver are really all about. The most common question asked about my article was where the eight million ounces came from. It is impossible to know the exact source of the incoming silver since that information is not publicly disclosed. But that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze what we do know.

COMEX silver inventories are largely unchanged over the past couple of years. However, these warehouse stocks are down over 75% from their adjusted peak of about 350 million ounces eight to ten years ago. Even though the total hasn’t grown from the 100 to 110 million ounce level for the past two years, it’s possible for eight million ounces to be sent in one coordinated shipment. That’s because total world silver inventories and the COMEX inventories are two different things. COMEX inventories are a subset of world inventories.

Total world silver bullion inventories include what we can see (known) plus that we surmise exists, but can’t see (unknown). I include junk silver coins in this total (although I would think they may not be called junk in the future). The COMEX stocks are one part of the known category. They are the largest component of the known category, making up more than two-thirds of total known stocks. What makes the COMEX stocks so important, aside from them being the largest known stocks in the world, is the public daily dissemination of their changes and disposition, down to the single ounce. Today, June 9, COMEX silver stocks totaled 105,732,991 troy ounces.

I have been studying the daily report of COMEX silver inventories for more than 15 years. I know many people also follow this report. It’s only natural. In our quest for objective information, these stocks are basically the only inventory input available. I wouldn’t know what else to monitor each day. But, COMEX stocks are not total world silver stocks.

An increase in COMEX stocks is not the same as increases in total world silver inventories. What determines changes in the level of total world inventories for silver (and every other commodity) is whether we are in a surplus or deficit. If we produce more than we consume, we have silver left over that’s added to inventories. The inventories always grow in a surplus. In a deficit, we have to draw from inventories, in order to balance supply with demand. The inventories always shrink in a deficit. Always.

Unfortunately, when we see an increase in COMEX stocks, we equate that to an increase in total world stocks. Then we assume that means we have a surplus in silver, because surplus equals increasing inventories. But it’s wrong. What determines how total world inventories are changing is real world supply and demand, not changes in COMEX inventories.

Silver inventories in core NYC warehouses are basically at all-time lows. The total registered category makes up 46 million ounces. That’s the category that delivery takes place against. Never have we been so low in this category. When you consider that this registered category is the form in which investors, all over the world, go to buy and store COMEX physical silver, it is surprising that there is so little silver remaining. Every single ounce of the COMEX inventory is owned by someone. This silver is not owned by the COMEX. Although we see daily reports of this silver by the COMEX, it doesn’t mean it’s available. It belongs to many different owners.

In fact, even people who own silver stored in COMEX-licensed warehouses, the largest being HSBC, are somewhat taken back when they learn that the silver they own, is counted in the COMEX totals. And I’m not just talking about that silver acquired as a result of taking delivery of a COMEX futures contract. I’m talking about silver bought from any dealer and stored at the warehouses licensed by the COMEX. There is a very good reason for folks to store silver in a COMEX-approved warehouse. It is the safest place to store metal. So safe, that most of the known world silver inventory is stored there. That’s no accident. My point is just because this silver is visible in these few warehouses, doesn’t make it available.

That’s why I have made such a big deal out of the timing of this eight million ounce transfer in. Based upon the comments I have received, most folks did interpret that this silver transfer indicated there was more silver around than thought. This is just the way they wanted people to think. I think this transfer was designed to fool people and to make it look like there’s plenty of silver out there. Nothing could be further from the truth. That is why it’s upsetting to not get disclosure on why this silver came in when it did.

It may be microanalysing this point. I look closely at all aspects of silver. But if I’m anywhere near correct on this issue, it means that someone is going out of their way to make it look like we have plenty of silver, when all other facts point in the opposite direction. If someone is doing this, they are sending false signals about the supply of silver to hide how scarce available silver is becoming. That should make you not only question the responses from the COMEX’s Mr. Wolkoff, but rush out and buy as much real silver as possible.


-- Posted Wednesday, June 11 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Seit nunmehr bereits 14 vollen Jahren gibt es ein nachgewiesenes Silber Produktionsdefizit, und der Silberpreis steht trotzdem in Euro, Franken gerechnet, auf einem mind. 30 Jahrestief!!!!

Trotzdem gibt es leider immer noch Leute im WBoard, die glauben es gehe alles mit rechten Dingen her, und zu.

Ein sehr interessanter Beitrag vom Silber Kenner David Morgan!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



Valuable Silver, Invaluable Advice

David Morgan

Nearly three years ago, I wrote an article for the public called "Silver to Zero." The basic premise of that piece, published on October 20, 2000, was that silver is being depleted at a fairly rapid rate - which will, sooner or later, cause the world to begin experiencing a shortage of silver.

Many of my facts came from the CPM Group, acknowledged for its extensive research in all metals. CPM`s Silver Survey for the year 2000 had reported that at least 1.3 billion ounces of silver were used during the prior ten-year period, well in excess of the quantity mined.

Now, CPM has issued its Silver Survey 2003, and guess what? That`s right - not much has changed. The world still uses more silver than it mines - a condition that has persisted now for 14 consecutive years.

That should translate into higher prices - but it hasn`t! As a result, silver bulls are getting a bit impatient - and who can blame them? After all, I recognized this obvious disparity way back in my first article, asking: "Why aren`t silver prices reflective of the true fundamentals of the market?" However, I also predicted the silver price would not show any significant strength until we see silver inventories near zero.

Now, three years later, that bold statement certainly seems to have been validated, as does the reasoning on which I based it - reasoning that still fully applies: The paper market controls the price.

Over the past three years, both the CFTC and the Comex have been queried numerous times about the silver situation, with probing questions posed about both commodity law and possible market manipulation. Their responses are clouded in the typical bureaucratic mumbo-jumbo, but one thing stands out clearly: The only manipulation that really concerns the CFTC is in the near, or spot, month. That`s the only trading arena where definitive rules are in place that the exchange officials can enforce.

To clarify, here`s a direct quote from one CFTC letter in response to a question about steps taken to prevent manipulation:

"The market surveillance group also monitors compliance with the Commission`s and the exchanges` position-limit rules, which help prevent traders from accumulating concentrations of contracts of a size sufficient to possibly disrupt a market. To monitor those limits, market surveillance staff reviews daily large-trader reports for potential violations. Although bona fide hedgers are exempt from speculative limits, staff continues to monitor hedgers` compliance with their exemption levels. Speculative limits in physical-delivery markets are generally set at a lower level during the spot month (the month when the futures contract matures and becomes deliverable). Lower limits in the spot month are important because that is when physical delivery may be required and when the contract may be more vulnerable to price fluctuation caused by abnormally large positions or disorderly trading practices. The Commission requires that spot-month levels for physical-delivery markets be based upon an analysis of deliverable supplies and the history of spot-month liquidations."

As we said, mumbo-jumbo - so let`s do a little translation. First of all, a hedger is a seller - or, as more commonly known, a short seller. And, these good ol` boys are exempt from limits. Yep, sure enough! The CFTC even says they are, by golly. As such, they are allowed to sell as much silver as they want on paper. The sky`s the limit! Heck the moon is the limit! In fact, there is no limit!!

So, as a hedger, one can sell as much "paper" silver as one cares to. But, if you want to stand for delivery - i.e., if you want to buy the actual physical metal - then you are subject to limits and, if you try to buy a tad too much, you face the full investigative powers of the CFTC.

This situation is similar to the one George Orwell described in Animal Farm:

"We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."

This is a somewhat contradictory stance since an earlier CFTC letter essentially said that excess selling by hedgers was controlled because, if short sellers drove silver prices to an undervalued level, all buyers had to do was "stand for delivery" and the resulting demand for physical silver would push prices back up. However, as the above quote stated, that notion is apparently invalid since any commodity trader who actually buys too much silver in any given spot will fall under the immediate scrutiny of CFTC regulators.

That regulatory inconsistency provides the answer to a question I`ve received numerous times in recent years, which is: "With silver so undervalued, why doesn`t someone just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it?"

In other words, the answer is they can`t - the CFTC is watching for just such a "problem."

So, in summary, here`s how the CFTC regulation works: Sell all the silver you want, if you don`t really have it, and it`s no problem. In fact, you can do it with unlimited abandon. But, contract for and ask to actually receive even one more ounce than the limit - and it`s a BIG PROBLEM!!

It`s because of this rule that I have a slightly different take on the term "stand for delivery." On the back of the dust jacket for Paul Sarnoff`s book, Silver Bulls, there`s a picture of William and Nelson Bunker Hunt appearing before Congress, hands raised, swearing to the truth of their testimony about their own efforts to corner the silver market in the late 1970s. Called on the carpet in front of Congress - that`s my idea of the true meaning of "standing for delivery!"

Of course, now that I`ve explained why someone doesn`t just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it, I have to expand slightly on my answer: Actually, in spite of the CFTC rules, someone ALREADY HAS bought up the bulk of the market`s available silver.

That person is none other than Mr. Warren Buffett himself. Not very long ago, Mr. Buffett bought nearly 130 million ounces of silver - and the impact was far from subtle. In fact, if you look at the Comex inventory before and after the Buffett announcement, you will notice a very rapid depletion of Comex silver. 1

The result is a very interesting situation on the Comex. The overall silver inventory currently stands at about 106 million ounces. However, the eligible category has now climbed to roughly 60 million ounces, while the registered category stands at just 46 million ounces. This is the only time in recent history I can recall that the eligible category has been greater than the registered category.

If you follow the market closely, you know that this is quite significant. Most analysts agree the eligible category is held by long-term investors who are willing to wait. These investors expect much higher silver prices, and their inventory is merely resting in the Comex warehouses. In simple terms, this means the traders and dealers have a mere 46 million ounces; the rest is more or less for display purposes only.

Obviously, this is a bit of an overstatement on my part. While the eligible silver is currently on display and cannot be delivered, all it takes is some minor paperwork to place it back in the registered category. Thus, at some higher future price, this silver can and likely will be sold. Only the long-term holders who currently control this silver know what that higher future price actually will be, based on their own objectives. However, I firmly believe it will prove to be far higher than the current price!

When Nelson Bunker Hunt tried cornering the silver market, what he actually took off the Comex was 50 million ounces. Given the above numbers, we can clearly see that, if Mr. Hunt where to appear in the silver market today, he would be unable to acquire 50 million ounces from the registered category. Although this is a subtle and not well-recognized shift in silver inventories, I`m nonetheless sticking to my basic premise that the Comex physical deliverable supply is dwindling.

As far as I know, those who follow my work - as well as the work of others who comment on the silver market - are tired of hearing about the fundamentals of silver supply and demand over and over again. Let`s face it, how many times can you tell people that we`ve had a silver deficit for 14 consecutive years? The investor says: "Thank you. That`s a very nice piece of information - but it`s done nothing for the price! All it has done is frustrate me as I`ve been holding silver for quite some time, and these facts just don`t seem to matter to the market."

So, in response to this, I`d like to provide some alternate insights - which will hopefully encourage the bulls one more time. This time, I want to examine the silver market from a slightly different perspective, focusing on VALUE!

Value investing is a cornerstone of long-term growth and asset accumulation. Investors with patience survive the ups and downs of the market and are more likely to emerge wealthy than those who try to ride the market`s short-term swings. Let`s begin by looking at a few definitions of value.

Value: Relative Worth

The relative worth of silver is very difficult to determine. However, if we look at monetary history, we can find very clear evidence that silver was valued at about 1/12th the price of gold for several hundred years.

Why is this? Although it cannot be proven, this is what I call the natural ratio - the ratio at which silver and gold appear in the earth`s surface. In other words, for every ounce of gold that has been mined, twelve ounces of silver have been mined. It seems the market determined this natural ratio as the equivalent exchange rate between the two metals when both were used as money. Comex rules can be changed, but this historic ratio of silver to gold is a historic fact and cannot be changed.

Value: Fair Return, or the Equivalent in Exchange for Goods, Services or Money

Again, you`ll have to bear with me while I talk a little bit more about monetary history. First, there was once a syndicated cartoon series in several major newspapers called "Another Day, Another Dollar." This cartoon series illustrated the struggles of everyday life. Although the cartoons had nothing to do with silver, it did have an interesting title: "Another Day, Another Dollar." What`s so interesting about this is that, at one time, one silver dollar was one average working man`s daily wage. If silver were priced at today`s minimum wage, we would see that a day is worth almost $50US. However, silver is priced at just one-tenth that amount. That obvious devaluation is further understated by the fact that, relative to the time when this cartoon was popular, the silver supply is considerably smaller, while the dollar supply is substantially greater.

Value: Industrial Importance, or Rate of Usefulness

Many of us determine the worth of something based on how useful or needed the service or good may be. For example, food and gasoline are basic to most of the world, a fact few would argue. Silver is also essential for modern life - but almost everyone is asleep to this fact. Indeed, this is where silver shines - no pun intended. The industrial importance of the metal is almost beyond definition, with the uses for silver far too numerous to list for the purposes of an essay of this size. However, as a reminder, the metal has applications in medicine, photography, computers, cell phones, electronics, batteries, switches, jewelry, coins, and environmental protection - to name just a few.

One argument that personally annoys me is what I call the situational economic scenario. This contention goes like this: If you were in the Mojave Desert and dying of thirst, then a glass of water would be more valuable than gold. This, of course, would be true - but it`s a very specific case. Logic demands that, to truly determine value, we examine all cases and only then draw our conclusion. In many parts of the world, water is far more abundant than gold; therefore, it`s less valuable.

The area most of the human race is concerned with, however, goes beyond survival, stretching to include security. Generally, as we age, security becomes more and more important to us as individuals - and, in civilized societies, security is largely a function of financial survival. We may not think of investing as financial survival, but anyone who has suffered a tremendous loss in an investment will likely agree with this assessment.

Traditionally, cash savings have been the safest and most certain way to achieve financial security - less risk than any other asset class and minimal potential for loss of principal. As an illustration, people with cash generally survived the Great Depression economically, while people with stocks - or, even worse, assets financed with debt - did not.

The problem with cash savings lies in the value of the currency in which it is held. >From a historic perspective, all paper money has proven worthless over time - and now is no exception, with the roster of world currencies littered with paper of questionable value. The only "currencies" to have remained valuable for thousands of years are gold and silver.

Even the markets for paper securities themselves support this contention. For example, only a few of the stocks that made up the Dow Jones Industrial Average 100 years ago are even in business today. However, one that did survive (until its recent acquisition) was the Homestake Mining company - a company whose assets were denominated almost entirely in gold and silver.

Thus, there can be little question that silver stands tall when assessed on the basis of value. It`s just a matter of time until the market snaps to and translates that value into higher prices." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

In other words, the CFTC says hedgers are exempt - but,

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."

This is a somewhat contradictory stance since an earlier CFTC letter essentially said that excess selling by hedgers was controlled because, if short sellers drove silver prices to an undervalued level, all buyers had to do was "stand for delivery" and the resulting demand for physical silver would push prices back up. However, as the above quote stated, that notion is apparently invalid since any commodity trader who actually buys too much silver in any given spot will fall under the immediate scrutiny of CFTC regulators.

That regulatory inconsistency provides the answer to a question I`ve received numerous times in recent years, which is: "With silver so undervalued, why doesn`t someone just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it?"

In other words, the answer is they can`t - the CFTC is watching for just such a "problem."

So, in summary, here`s how the CFTC regulation works: Sell all the silver you want, if you don`t really have it, and it`s no problem. In fact, you can do it with unlimited abandon. But, contract for and ask to actually receive even one more ounce than the limit - and it`s a BIG PROBLEM!!

It`s because of this rule that I have a slightly different take on the term "stand for delivery." On the back of the dust jacket for Paul Sarnoff`s book, Silver Bulls, there`s a picture of William and Nelson Bunker Hunt appearing before Congress, hands raised, swearing to the truth of their testimony about their own efforts to corner the silver market in the late 1970s. Called on the carpet in front of Congress - that`s my idea of the true meaning of "standing for delivery!"

Of course, now that I`ve explained why someone doesn`t just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it, I have to expand slightly on my answer: Actually, in spite of the CFTC rules, someone ALREADY HAS bought up the bulk of the market`s available silver.

That person is none other than Mr. Warren Buffett himself. Not very long ago, Mr. Buffett bought nearly 130 million ounces of silver - and the impact was far from subtle. In fact, if you look at the Comex inventory before and after the Buffett announcement, you will notice a very rapid depletion of Comex silver. 1

The result is a very interesting situation on the Comex. The overall silver inventory currently stands at about 106 million ounces. However, the eligible category has now climbed to roughly 60 million ounces, while the registered category stands at just 46 million ounces. This is the only time in recent history I can recall that the eligible category has been greater than the registered category.

If you follow the market closely, you know that this is quite significant. Most analysts agree the eligible category is held by long-term investors who are willing to wait. These investors expect much higher silver prices, and their inventory is merely resting in the Comex warehouses. In simple terms, this means the traders and dealers have a mere 46 million ounces; the rest is more or less for display purposes only.

Obviously, this is a bit of an overstatement on my part. While the eligible silver is currently on display and cannot be delivered, all it takes is some minor paperwork to place it back in the registered category. Thus, at some higher future price, this silver can and likely will be sold. Only the long-term holders who currently control this silver know what that higher future price actually will be, based on their own objectives. However, I firmly believe it will prove to be far higher than the current price!

When Nelson Bunker Hunt tried cornering the silver market, what he actually took off the Comex was 50 million ounces. Given the above numbers, we can clearly see that, if Mr. Hunt where to appear in the silver market today, he would be unable to acquire 50 million ounces from the registered category. Although this is a subtle and not well-recognized shift in silver inventories, I`m nonetheless sticking to my basic premise that the Comex physical deliverable supply is dwindling.

As far as I know, those who follow my work - as well as the work of others who comment on the silver market - are tired of hearing about the fundamentals of silver supply and demand over and over again. Let`s face it, how many times can you tell people that we`ve had a silver deficit for 14 consecutive years? The investor says: "Thank you. That`s a very nice piece of information - but it`s done nothing for the price! All it has done is frustrate me as I`ve been holding silver for quite some time, and these facts just don`t seem to matter to the market."

So, in response to this, I`d like to provide some alternate insights - which will hopefully encourage the bulls one more time. This time, I want to examine the silver market from a slightly different perspective, focusing on VALUE!

Value investing is a cornerstone of long-term growth and asset accumulation. Investors with patience survive the ups and downs of the market and are more likely to emerge wealthy than those who try to ride the market`s short-term swings. Let`s begin by looking at a few definitions of value.

Value: Relative Worth

The relative worth of silver is very difficult to determine. However, if we look at monetary history, we can find very clear evidence that silver was valued at about 1/12th the price of gold for several hundred years.

Why is this? Although it cannot be proven, this is what I call the natural ratio - the ratio at which silver and gold appear in the earth`s surface. In other words, for every ounce of gold that has been mined, twelve ounces of silver have been mined. It seems the market determined this natural ratio as the equivalent exchange rate between the two metals when both were used as money. Comex rules can be changed, but this historic ratio of silver to gold is a historic fact and cannot be changed.

Value: Fair Return, or the Equivalent in Exchange for Goods, Services or Money

Again, you`ll have to bear with me while I talk a little bit more about monetary history. First, there was once a syndicated cartoon series in several major newspapers called "Another Day, Another Dollar." This cartoon series illustrated the struggles of everyday life. Although the cartoons had nothing to do with silver, it did have an interesting title: "Another Day, Another Dollar." What`s so interesting about this is that, at one time, one silver dollar was one average working man`s daily wage. If silver were priced at today`s minimum wage, we would see that a day is worth almost $50US. However, silver is priced at just one-tenth that amount. That obvious devaluation is further understated by the fact that, relative to the time when this cartoon was popular, the silver supply is considerably smaller, while the dollar supply is substantially greater.

Value: Industrial Importance, or Rate of Usefulness

Many of us determine the worth of something based on how useful or needed the service or good may be. For example, food and gasoline are basic to most of the world, a fact few would argue. Silver is also essential for modern life - but almost everyone is asleep to this fact. Indeed, this is where silver shines - no pun intended. The industrial importance of the metal is almost beyond definition, with the uses for silver far too numerous to list for the purposes of an essay of this size. However, as a reminder, the metal has applications in medicine, photography, computers, cell phones, electronics, batteries, switches, jewelry, coins, and environmental protection - to name just a few.

One argument that personally annoys me is what I call the situational economic scenario. This contention goes like this: If you were in the Mojave Desert and dying of thirst, then a glass of water would be more valuable than gold. This, of course, would be true - but it`s a very specific case. Logic demands that, to truly determine value, we examine all cases and only then draw our conclusion. In many parts of the world, water is far more abundant than gold; therefore, it`s less valuable.

The area most of the human race is concerned with, however, goes beyond survival, stretching to include security. Generally, as we age, security becomes more and more important to us as individuals - and, in civilized societies, security is largely a function of financial survival. We may not think of investing as financial survival, but anyone who has suffered a tremendous loss in an investment will likely agree with this assessment.

Traditionally, cash savings have been the safest and most certain way to achieve financial security - less risk than any other asset class and minimal potential for loss of principal. As an illustration, people with cash generally survived the Great Depression economically, while people with stocks - or, even worse, assets financed with debt - did not.

The problem with cash savings lies in the value of the currency in which it is held. >From a historic perspective, all paper money has proven worthless over time - and now is no exception, with the roster of world currencies littered with paper of questionable value. The only "currencies" to have remained valuable for thousands of years are gold and silver.

Even the markets for paper securities themselves support this contention. For example, only a few of the stocks that made up the Dow Jones Industrial Average 100 years ago are even in business today. However, one that did survive (until its recent acquisition) was the Homestake Mining company - a company whose assets were denominated almost entirely in gold and silver.

Thus, there can be little question that silver stands tall when assessed on the basis of value. It`s just a matter of time until the market snaps to and translates that value into higher prices." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"All animals are created equal, only some animals are more equal than others.""We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."

This is a somewhat contradictory stance since an earlier CFTC letter essentially said that excess selling by hedgers was controlled because, if short sellers drove silver prices to an undervalued level, all buyers had to do was "stand for delivery" and the resulting demand for physical silver would push prices back up. However, as the above quote stated, that notion is apparently invalid since any commodity trader who actually buys too much silver in any given spot will fall under the immediate scrutiny of CFTC regulators.

That regulatory inconsistency provides the answer to a question I`ve received numerous times in recent years, which is: "With silver so undervalued, why doesn`t someone just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it?"

In other words, the answer is they can`t - the CFTC is watching for just such a "problem."

So, in summary, here`s how the CFTC regulation works: Sell all the silver you want, if you don`t really have it, and it`s no problem. In fact, you can do it with unlimited abandon. But, contract for and ask to actually receive even one more ounce than the limit - and it`s a BIG PROBLEM!!

It`s because of this rule that I have a slightly different take on the term "stand for delivery." On the back of the dust jacket for Paul Sarnoff`s book, Silver Bulls, there`s a picture of William and Nelson Bunker Hunt appearing before Congress, hands raised, swearing to the truth of their testimony about their own efforts to corner the silver market in the late 1970s. Called on the carpet in front of Congress - that`s my idea of the true meaning of "standing for delivery!"

Of course, now that I`ve explained why someone doesn`t just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it, I have to expand slightly on my answer: Actually, in spite of the CFTC rules, someone ALREADY HAS bought up the bulk of the market`s available silver.

That person is none other than Mr. Warren Buffett himself. Not very long ago, Mr. Buffett bought nearly 130 million ounces of silver - and the impact was far from subtle. In fact, if you look at the Comex inventory before and after the Buffett announcement, you will notice a very rapid depletion of Comex silver. 1

The result is a very interesting situation on the Comex. The overall silver inventory currently stands at about 106 million ounces. However, the eligible category has now climbed to roughly 60 million ounces, while the registered category stands at just 46 million ounces. This is the only time in recent history I can recall that the eligible category has been greater than the registered category.

If you follow the market closely, you know that this is quite significant. Most analysts agree the eligible category is held by long-term investors who are willing to wait. These investors expect much higher silver prices, and their inventory is merely resting in the Comex warehouses. In simple terms, this means the traders and dealers have a mere 46 million ounces; the rest is more or less for display purposes only.

Obviously, this is a bit of an overstatement on my part. While the eligible silver is currently on display and cannot be delivered, all it takes is some minor paperwork to place it back in the registered category. Thus, at some higher future price, this silver can and likely will be sold. Only the long-term holders who currently control this silver know what that higher future price actually will be, based on their own objectives. However, I firmly believe it will prove to be far higher than the current price!

When Nelson Bunker Hunt tried cornering the silver market, what he actually took off the Comex was 50 million ounces. Given the above numbers, we can clearly see that, if Mr. Hunt where to appear in the silver market today, he would be unable to acquire 50 million ounces from the registered category. Although this is a subtle and not well-recognized shift in silver inventories, I`m nonetheless sticking to my basic premise that the Comex physical deliverable supply is dwindling.

As far as I know, those who follow my work - as well as the work of others who comment on the silver market - are tired of hearing about the fundamentals of silver supply and demand over and over again. Let`s face it, how many times can you tell people that we`ve had a silver deficit for 14 consecutive years? The investor says: "Thank you. That`s a very nice piece of information - but it`s done nothing for the price! All it has done is frustrate me as I`ve been holding silver for quite some time, and these facts just don`t seem to matter to the market."

So, in response to this, I`d like to provide some alternate insights - which will hopefully encourage the bulls one more time. This time, I want to examine the silver market from a slightly different perspective, focusing on VALUE!

Value investing is a cornerstone of long-term growth and asset accumulation. Investors with patience survive the ups and downs of the market and are more likely to emerge wealthy than those who try to ride the market`s short-term swings. Let`s begin by looking at a few definitions of value.

Value: Relative Worth

The relative worth of silver is very difficult to determine. However, if we look at monetary history, we can find very clear evidence that silver was valued at about 1/12th the price of gold for several hundred years.

Why is this? Although it cannot be proven, this is what I call the natural ratio - the ratio at which silver and gold appear in the earth`s surface. In other words, for every ounce of gold that has been mined, twelve ounces of silver have been mined. It seems the market determined this natural ratio as the equivalent exchange rate between the two metals when both were used as money. Comex rules can be changed, but this historic ratio of silver to gold is a historic fact and cannot be changed.

Value: Fair Return, or the Equivalent in Exchange for Goods, Services or Money

Again, you`ll have to bear with me while I talk a little bit more about monetary history. First, there was once a syndicated cartoon series in several major newspapers called "Another Day, Another Dollar." This cartoon series illustrated the struggles of everyday life. Although the cartoons had nothing to do with silver, it did have an interesting title: "Another Day, Another Dollar." What`s so interesting about this is that, at one time, one silver dollar was one average working man`s daily wage. If silver were priced at today`s minimum wage, we would see that a day is worth almost $50US. However, silver is priced at just one-tenth that amount. That obvious devaluation is further understated by the fact that, relative to the time when this cartoon was popular, the silver supply is considerably smaller, while the dollar supply is substantially greater.

Value: Industrial Importance, or Rate of Usefulness

Many of us determine the worth of something based on how useful or needed the service or good may be. For example, food and gasoline are basic to most of the world, a fact few would argue. Silver is also essential for modern life - but almost everyone is asleep to this fact. Indeed, this is where silver shines - no pun intended. The industrial importance of the metal is almost beyond definition, with the uses for silver far too numerous to list for the purposes of an essay of this size. However, as a reminder, the metal has applications in medicine, photography, computers, cell phones, electronics, batteries, switches, jewelry, coins, and environmental protection - to name just a few.

One argument that personally annoys me is what I call the situational economic scenario. This contention goes like this: If you were in the Mojave Desert and dying of thirst, then a glass of water would be more valuable than gold. This, of course, would be true - but it`s a very specific case. Logic demands that, to truly determine value, we examine all cases and only then draw our conclusion. In many parts of the world, water is far more abundant than gold; therefore, it`s less valuable.

The area most of the human race is concerned with, however, goes beyond survival, stretching to include security. Generally, as we age, security becomes more and more important to us as individuals - and, in civilized societies, security is largely a function of financial survival. We may not think of investing as financial survival, but anyone who has suffered a tremendous loss in an investment will likely agree with this assessment.

Traditionally, cash savings have been the safest and most certain way to achieve financial security - less risk than any other asset class and minimal potential for loss of principal. As an illustration, people with cash generally survived the Great Depression economically, while people with stocks - or, even worse, assets financed with debt - did not.

The problem with cash savings lies in the value of the currency in which it is held. >From a historic perspective, all paper money has proven worthless over time - and now is no exception, with the roster of world currencies littered with paper of questionable value. The only "currencies" to have remained valuable for thousands of years are gold and silver.

Even the markets for paper securities themselves support this contention. For example, only a few of the stocks that made up the Dow Jones Industrial Average 100 years ago are even in business today. However, one that did survive (until its recent acquisition) was the Homestake Mining company - a company whose assets were denominated almost entirely in gold and silver.

Thus, there can be little question that silver stands tall when assessed on the basis of value. It`s just a matter of time until the market snaps to and translates that value into higher prices." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">

In other words, the CFTC says hedgers are exempt - but,

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We are watching anyone that might disrupt the real physical silver market."

This is a somewhat contradictory stance since an earlier CFTC letter essentially said that excess selling by hedgers was controlled because, if short sellers drove silver prices to an undervalued level, all buyers had to do was "stand for delivery" and the resulting demand for physical silver would push prices back up. However, as the above quote stated, that notion is apparently invalid since any commodity trader who actually buys too much silver in any given spot will fall under the immediate scrutiny of CFTC regulators.

That regulatory inconsistency provides the answer to a question I`ve received numerous times in recent years, which is: "With silver so undervalued, why doesn`t someone just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it?"

In other words, the answer is they can`t - the CFTC is watching for just such a "problem."

So, in summary, here`s how the CFTC regulation works: Sell all the silver you want, if you don`t really have it, and it`s no problem. In fact, you can do it with unlimited abandon. But, contract for and ask to actually receive even one more ounce than the limit - and it`s a BIG PROBLEM!!

It`s because of this rule that I have a slightly different take on the term "stand for delivery." On the back of the dust jacket for Paul Sarnoff`s book, Silver Bulls, there`s a picture of William and Nelson Bunker Hunt appearing before Congress, hands raised, swearing to the truth of their testimony about their own efforts to corner the silver market in the late 1970s. Called on the carpet in front of Congress - that`s my idea of the true meaning of "standing for delivery!"

Of course, now that I`ve explained why someone doesn`t just buy up all the silver on the Comex and be done with it, I have to expand slightly on my answer: Actually, in spite of the CFTC rules, someone ALREADY HAS bought up the bulk of the market`s available silver.

That person is none other than Mr. Warren Buffett himself. Not very long ago, Mr. Buffett bought nearly 130 million ounces of silver - and the impact was far from subtle. In fact, if you look at the Comex inventory before and after the Buffett announcement, you will notice a very rapid depletion of Comex silver. 1

The result is a very interesting situation on the Comex. The overall silver inventory currently stands at about 106 million ounces. However, the eligible category has now climbed to roughly 60 million ounces, while the registered category stands at just 46 million ounces. This is the only time in recent history I can recall that the eligible category has been greater than the registered category.

If you follow the market closely, you know that this is quite significant. Most analysts agree the eligible category is held by long-term investors who are willing to wait. These investors expect much higher silver prices, and their inventory is merely resting in the Comex warehouses. In simple terms, this means the traders and dealers have a mere 46 million ounces; the rest is more or less for display purposes only.

Obviously, this is a bit of an overstatement on my part. While the eligible silver is currently on display and cannot be delivered, all it takes is some minor paperwork to place it back in the registered category. Thus, at some higher future price, this silver can and likely will be sold. Only the long-term holders who currently control this silver know what that higher future price actually will be, based on their own objectives. However, I firmly believe it will prove to be far higher than the current price!

When Nelson Bunker Hunt tried cornering the silver market, what he actually took off the Comex was 50 million ounces. Given the above numbers, we can clearly see that, if Mr. Hunt where to appear in the silver market today, he would be unable to acquire 50 million ounces from the registered category. Although this is a subtle and not well-recognized shift in silver inventories, I`m nonetheless sticking to my basic premise that the Comex physical deliverable supply is dwindling.

As far as I know, those who follow my work - as well as the work of others who comment on the silver market - are tired of hearing about the fundamentals of silver supply and demand over and over again. Let`s face it, how many times can you tell people that we`ve had a silver deficit for 14 consecutive years? The investor says: "Thank you. That`s a very nice piece of information - but it`s done nothing for the price! All it has done is frustrate me as I`ve been holding silver for quite some time, and these facts just don`t seem to matter to the market."

So, in response to this, I`d like to provide some alternate insights - which will hopefully encourage the bulls one more time. This time, I want to examine the silver market from a slightly different perspective, focusing on VALUE!

Value investing is a cornerstone of long-term growth and asset accumulation. Investors with patience survive the ups and downs of the market and are more likely to emerge wealthy than those who try to ride the market`s short-term swings. Let`s begin by looking at a few definitions of value.

Value: Relative Worth

The relative worth of silver is very difficult to determine. However, if we look at monetary history, we can find very clear evidence that silver was valued at about 1/12th the price of gold for several hundred years.

Why is this? Although it cannot be proven, this is what I call the natural ratio - the ratio at which silver and gold appear in the earth`s surface. In other words, for every ounce of gold that has been mined, twelve ounces of silver have been mined. It seems the market determined this natural ratio as the equivalent exchange rate between the two metals when both were used as money. Comex rules can be changed, but this historic ratio of silver to gold is a historic fact and cannot be changed.

Value: Fair Return, or the Equivalent in Exchange for Goods, Services or Money

Again, you`ll have to bear with me while I talk a little bit more about monetary history. First, there was once a syndicated cartoon series in several major newspapers called "Another Day, Another Dollar." This cartoon series illustrated the struggles of everyday life. Although the cartoons had nothing to do with silver, it did have an interesting title: "Another Day, Another Dollar." What`s so interesting about this is that, at one time, one silver dollar was one average working man`s daily wage. If silver were priced at today`s minimum wage, we would see that a day is worth almost $50US. However, silver is priced at just one-tenth that amount. That obvious devaluation is further understated by the fact that, relative to the time when this cartoon was popular, the silver supply is considerably smaller, while the dollar supply is substantially greater.

Value: Industrial Importance, or Rate of Usefulness

Many of us determine the worth of something based on how useful or needed the service or good may be. For example, food and gasoline are basic to most of the world, a fact few would argue. Silver is also essential for modern life - but almost everyone is asleep to this fact. Indeed, this is where silver shines - no pun intended. The industrial importance of the metal is almost beyond definition, with the uses for silver far too numerous to list for the purposes of an essay of this size. However, as a reminder, the metal has applications in medicine, photography, computers, cell phones, electronics, batteries, switches, jewelry, coins, and environmental protection - to name just a few.

One argument that personally annoys me is what I call the situational economic scenario. This contention goes like this: If you were in the Mojave Desert and dying of thirst, then a glass of water would be more valuable than gold. This, of course, would be true - but it`s a very specific case. Logic demands that, to truly determine value, we examine all cases and only then draw our conclusion. In many parts of the world, water is far more abundant than gold; therefore, it`s less valuable.

The area most of the human race is concerned with, however, goes beyond survival, stretching to include security. Generally, as we age, security becomes more and more important to us as individuals - and, in civilized societies, security is largely a function of financial survival. We may not think of investing as financial survival, but anyone who has suffered a tremendous loss in an investment will likely agree with this assessment.

Traditionally, cash savings have been the safest and most certain way to achieve financial security - less risk than any other asset class and minimal potential for loss of principal. As an illustration, people with cash generally survived the Great Depression economically, while people with stocks - or, even worse, assets financed with debt - did not.

The problem with cash savings lies in the value of the currency in which it is held. >From a historic perspective, all paper money has proven worthless over time - and now is no exception, with the roster of world currencies littered with paper of questionable value. The only "currencies" to have remained valuable for thousands of years are gold and silver.

Even the markets for paper securities themselves support this contention. For example, only a few of the stocks that made up the Dow Jones Industrial Average 100 years ago are even in business today. However, one that did survive (until its recent acquisition) was the Homestake Mining company - a company whose assets were denominated almost entirely in gold and silver.

Thus, there can be little question that silver stands tall when assessed on the basis of value. It`s just a matter of time until the market snaps to and translates that value into higher prices.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1056559627.php



The Silver Managers

By: Theodore Butler

Lately, natural gas has been in the news. In the last week or so, I`ve seen the topic on the front page of the NY Times and watched endless stories about it on financial TV. I’ve witnessed a special congressional meeting with Fed chief Alan Greenspan about it, and even heard President Bush lecture on the reason natural gas prices were high and may head higher. Everyone is quick to tell you that natural gas inventories are at 25-year lows, demand is strong and supply is limited. This is a simple and ironclad explanation for soaring natural gas prices.

It seems that everywhere you look, we are being given lectures on how the law of supply and demand works. Everywhere that is, except the silver market. In fact, it`s kind of funny. Not only are we not being given public lectures about supply and demand in the silver market, government and exchange regulators can`t or won`t address the most basic question - how can a free market have a deficit and at the same time have flat to lower prices?

As with natural gas, silver is at a 25-year low in inventories. However, with silver it’s not just U.S. inventories, but total world inventories. In fact, silver world inventories are at 250-year lows. Natural gas, like silver is also experiencing strong demand and limited supplies. In fact, silver has been in a structural deficit for more than half a century. Current demand has been greater than current production for that entire period. A deficit, by definition, is both strong demand and limited supply. Natural gas and silver are both a vital element of modern life. They are finite, non-replenishing minerals. The only real difference between natural gas and silver, is that the price of natural gas has responded, to the immutable laws of supply and demand, and has rocketed to historic levels in the last few years, while the price of silver has languished. The explanation? Natural gas is in a free market, silver isn`t. Silver is strictly controlled in all meaningful measures, including price, by a small powerful group - the silver managers.

Who are the silver managers and why are they managing the silver market? The who is obvious - the large financial institutions who dominate every facet of the silver market, including both the physical and paper derivative markets, as well as all aspects of financing. This would include AIG Trading, Bank of Nova Scotia (Mocatta). HSBC and the Morgans (JP and Stanley), among others. These are the big guys in the silver world. They are at the top of the food chain. They are the big concentrated commercial traders. No one denies that these firms are dominant players in the silver market.

Why are they managing the price of silver? I`m not a big fan of vast or complex conspiracies. If there`s a simple and plausible answer that explains why something is occurring, the odds favor that answer being correct. The silver managers are companies that are financially motivated. They exist to make money by dealing in financial ventures and services. And making money in the silver market is something they do very successfully. From trading COMEX silver futures and options alone, they have made billions of dollars over the past 15 years. There`s nothing wrong with that, in general. What`s wrong is if anyone violates the law, or the intent of the law, in the quest to turn a profit. In my opinion, the silver managers have crossed the legal line in their quest to earn a profit.

I will attempt to prove that the silver managers have violated commodity law, by analyzing just how they do it. The methods and tools at their disposal enable the silver managers to dominate and control many markets, including gold. However, no other market is managed to the same extent as silver. Silver is in a league of its own.


It is important to remember that our commodity futures markets are designed to be of the open outcry, auction variety. All trading is to be done in full view, with no backroom deals. There is no allowance for a specialist, or market-making function in commodity futures trading, as there is on the New York Stock Exchange. The whole history and body of commodity law is designed to keep trading open and not be dominated by large interests. The economic purpose for our commodity futures markets is to allow real producers and consumers to legitimately offset, or hedge, their own price risks. The fact that it is easy to identify the big guys in the silver market, and that these kingpins don`t produce, nor consume a single ounce of real silver, should strike you as odd. How, in this day and age of supposed financial sophistication, do we even find ourselves in the position where a few big banks and an insurance company have come to control all trading and pricing aspects of the silver market? What happened to the price influence of real producers and users and investors? This is the main intent of commodity trading law, preventing a tight-knit gang of price managers from high jacking the free market. Who put them in charge?

Here are the specific methods and tools that are used by the silver managers, to control the silver market:


1. Permission and ability to trade speculatively in unlimited amounts.


This is the silver managers` chief weapon. The ability to buy or sell COMEX silver futures and options in unlimited quantities. Wouldn`t anyone be able to influence strongly the price of anything, if they could buy or sell as much as they wanted? That`s exactly what the silver managers can do in silver (and other markets). Do you need to sell 250 million ounces of silver (that is not already owned) to cap the price, even though that`s more than all the visible silver in the world? No problem. The silver managers will sell (or buy) in any paper amount necessary to control the price. That`s why silver has been flat as a pancake, price-wise, for more than 15 years.


Despite the clear-cut intent of commodity law to limit the size and price influence of large speculators, the silver managers have succeeded in bamboozling the CFTC, into ignoring the law. The law is clear - there must be legitimate speculative position limits in silver. There are no legitimate speculative position limits in COMEX silver, save for the current spot delivery month, of 1500 contracts (7.5 million ounces). That limit should be extended and applied to all months combined. Then 4 or less traders wouldn`t be able to sell naked short over 250 million ounces, as they did last year. Why should a bank or insurance company speculating in the silver market, be able to short sell many, many times what the average silver mine can produce annually?


You must remember, without legitimate trading limits placed on the speculatively minded silver managers, there are no limits. Margin would be a problem for you or me, but not for the silver managers. Besides having the near ability of creating money out of thin air (these are banks we are talking about), a lot of the time, the managers don`t even have to put up margin, since they are clearing firms and post margins on their net position. Since the managers carry the tech funds as customers, their usual opposite positions offset margin requirements.


It would not be fair if I did not mention the role of the technical hedge funds on the COMEX, who largely provide the profit incentive for the silver managers` manipulation. Some of these computerized and mechanical trading funds also trade in amounts of paper contracts well beyond what would be mandated by legitimate speculative position limits. Make no mistake, these tech funds, even though they are getting skinned alive by the silver managers, are a big part of this manipulation. The tech funds are the enablers. And, in the quest to figure why these tech funds would donate so much money, through trading losses, to the silver managers, someone asked me a great question the other day - are these tech funds traded by the silver managers? With the magnitude of their consistent losses, I can’t make sense of it or answer questions.


What`s amazing is that the chief weapon of the silver managers is clearly against commodity law. If the CFTC would uphold and enforce existing law, and insist on legitimate speculative position limits in COMEX silver, the manipulation would end instantly.


2. Domination of the physical markets, including leasing.


In addition to the ability to buy and sell in unlimited paper amounts, the silver managers dominate the physical realm, as well. As middlemen, they buy and sell and store and distribute more real silver than anyone. While large concentrated market share isn`t necessarily bad, it does create clout, and a greater possibility of anti-competitive behavior. Combined with their paper market domination, the silver managers` physical market domination creates unusual clout.


The silver managers, of course, are also the creators and lead operators of the silver (and gold) lease markets, although "markets" is too kind a description for leasing. Metal leasing is inherently manipulative and fraudulent in silver, because the leases can`t be paid back with silver, due to there being more silver leases than real silver. But that doesn`t stop the silver managers from pretending that all is well. More importantly, because the managers are the controllers of leasing, they can get metal to dump on the market, at will, with no regard to price. What this means is that, in addition to being able to cap the price of silver with unlimited short sales of paper silver, the managers can tap into the central bank of Red China, for instance, for real silver to satisfy any physical demands, caused by the low price. Paper and physical domination are the perfect combination for manipulation.


Another example of the silver managers domination of the physical market is their control of the COMEX silver warehouse stocks. Two of the managers, HSBC and Scotia-Mocatta, operate the two big warehouses in New York, which account for the vast bulk of investor-owned silver. Even though all silver inventories have declined dramatically, due to the deficit, and there are currently only 46 million ounces in the registered category in all of the COMEX warehouses, you`d never know that from the deliveries made between the silver managers. Even though the silver just sits there, more than 100 million ounces is delivered and redelivered each year. Three silver managers, HSBC, Scotia-Mocatta and AIG, typically account for 90% of total deliveries. Try as I might, I can not come up with a legitimate economic reason for such frantic turnover of certificates, when the silver (what`s left of it) just sits there. Save one - to make it look like there`s plenty of silver available.


3. Standing in the financial community.


It`s no secret that the silver managers are part of the financial system. Some would argue that they are the system. As such, they are given respect and the presumption that they would not intentionally violate the law. Certainly, they work closely with the regulators. In fact, our financial trading system has evolved into a self-regulating model. That means, that in addition to the paper and physical domination of the silver managers, these same managers have been delegated to regulate themselves. I`m not kidding you - the silver managers are their own policemen and judges. The CFTC has given the keys to the family station wagon to a party of teenagers, and has thrown in a case of beer.


Because of the combined power and standing of the silver managers, and their unique role in policing themselves, there should be more, not less, scrutiny. Precisely because it is a self-regulating environment, when someone raises a question concerning manipulation, and bases it on public information, it should get more attention. Remember, there is no more important question for any market, than is it manipulated or free? Anyone who could picture the current silver market as free, is not looking at all the facts. I have outlined how the silver managers have the means, motive and opportunity to manipulate the price of silver. What more is there? This is basic forensic investigation. It is what the CFTC and COMEX management should be looking into.


These are exciting times in the silver market. Not the price action, of course, but everything else. These are serious issues I am writing about. They concern the basic structure of our markets, economics and law. They concern what is right and what is wrong. I didn`t design this article to be a pitch to buy silver, but it is the existence of this very obvious downward price manipulation that has created the buy of a lifetime. The more you understand this manipulation, the better off you will be.


-- Posted Wednesday, June 25 2003

[empuge]

In einem Beitrag des Handesblattes vom 26.06.03 wird die Minenproduktion in 2001 mit 589,2 Mill. Unzen sowie in 2002 mit 585,9 Mill. Unzen angegeben.
Der Verbrauch in 2001 liegt nach deren Aussagen in 2001 bei 868,50 Mill. Unzen und in 2002 bei 838,2 Mill. Unzen. Woher wird die Differenz genommen?
Werden zur Zeit noch große Bestände verkauft, oder stammen sie aus dem Recycling?

gruß
empuge

[ThaiGuru]

@empuge

Hier findest Du Deine gewünschte Antwort!

http://www.weigl-fdl.de/body_angebotsdefizit.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallybently062703.ht…

Silver Market Corner Update

In any market corner, nearly every stakeholder
experiences extreme fear or extreme greed!

Wally Bently

SUMMARY

In my opinion: I believe in 2004 of a 50% probability of an accidental silver market corner or a 30% probability of a planned silver market corner with the "Sting." I do not foresee a silver market corner happening in 2003. The remainder of 2003 is likely to see silver mostly trading within the range of $4 to $5 as the world wide recession deepens with major bank and financial institutions experiencing defaults or reorganizations. This is being caused by world wide increasing and unsustainable non performing debts. Trade imbalances exacerbate the debt problems.

I do foresee a silver market corner occurring which coincides with several apparently unrelated but actual market corner causes. It could be difficult to determine if a market corner is a planned market corner or an accidental market corner until it is over.

A silver market corner or any other market corner will occur from outside the U.S. to avoid U.S. government entanglements and intimidation. The experiences of the Hunt brothers in 1980 serve as a reminder to those in the U.S. who might attempt a market corner.

The silver market corner, when it occurs, will be on the basis of physical silver shortage and lawsuits by non U.S. banks/financial entities demanding physical silver delivery. These entities will make it publicly known worldwide that they are being and/or have been injured with demands in U.S. courts for punitive damages in addition to the physical silver. A few tort/contract lawyers will benefit financially in the tens of millions of dollars.

I do not see the silver market corner directly involving the U.S. Comex silver exchange. The Comex exchange has been manipulating silver prices for years and has rules in place to the detriment of most people seeking physical silver. One such rule, is the limiting to three million ounces per month of deliveries if it so chooses. Another practice favors the selling of naked futures by four to six very large traders. In my opinion, the Comex is an old boys club where favors are given and rules are changed for the benefit of a few in the Comex trading.

INTRODUCTION

I have been asked several times for an update on my thoughts of a silver market corner happening as a. result from my March 2002 editorial "Is A Silver Market Corner Underway?"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/wallybently030102.ht…

This editorial is not intended to simply repeat the material in that essay or other essays referenced.

For more information on the silver, I recommend the reader read the many recent excellent editorials and useful information in index form from which the reader can click to read them. These editorials by titles can be found at

htttp://www.gold-eagle.com/silver_section/reports.html

A listing by analysts/author`s name of contributors can be found at

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research.html

There is also a search function for specific topics on the http://www.gold-eagle.com web site.

The term $5 billion used throughout this editorial is my estimated amount of money needed to corner the silver market. It is based on buying up @$5/oz. all mined silver (550 million oz) and reclaimed silver (250 million oz) within a one year period, plus the alleged global silver stocks (200 million oz) to cause a major physical silver market disruption. Current world silver prices are near $4.50/oz.

The silver market corner will be characterized by most stakeholders experiencing emotional expectations which contain extreme "fear" or "greed" factors. The remainder of this editorial focuses on some of these factors with an attempt to quantify them in terms of U.S. dollars.


The value of anything is a perception
All perceptions are subject to change because of changing expectations.
Changing expectations can change a perceived value in the twinkle of an eye!

FEAR FACTORS

Japanese individual savers fearing impending bank closures/failures may buy hard assets since they do not have access to the Foreign Exchange market. They are currently buying gold with delivery, but could soon be buying silver for delivery. Japanese savers are said to have the equivalent of 10,000 billion equivalent U.S. dollars. However, Japanese savers could experience major banking failures (recently the fifth largest bank nearly failed) at any time. $5 billion is only 0.05% of the savings if used for purchasing physical silver as a useful non perishable portable hard asset.

Chinese individual savers are now able to purchase silver through a Chinese mainland silver exchange. The silver trading volume is currently small. I think few Chinese citizens know that they can buy physical silver. I realize that Chinese have low incomes. The Chinese population is over 1 billion people. If the Chinese bought an average of only ounce of physical silver/citizen ($5/citizen) in one year, this would represent $5 billion.

Chinese & Hong Kong Central Banks with devaluation fears have over 385 billion U.S. dollars as banking reserves. Diversion of 1.3% of these banking reserves for purchasing silver as part of the reserves would be $5 billion. The Chinese government for political leverage or other agendas could disrupt some U.S. foreign policies or U.S. economy by such a tactic.

Asian Central bankers with devaluation fears of excess U.S. dollar reserves such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan , India and Indonesia have about 418 billion U.S. dollars as reserves. Diversion of 1.2% of these assets into physical silver reserves would be $5 billion These banks are said to be meeting about excess U.S. dollar reserves.

Japan Central Bank with devaluation fears of its 460 billion U.S. dollars in reserves could convert about 1% of the dollar reserves ($5 billion) into physical silver as a prop for Japanese banking failure concerns. I do not think the Japan central bank is considering such a move at this time.

U.S. militia/survivalists: A small part of U.S. population (militia types, survivalists, and people still remembering or having heard of the 1930`s depression may start putting assets into gold and silver. If one million citizens of the 280 million population was to buy 1000 ounces ($5,000) of physical silver within a one year period from terrorist concerns affecting banking, then that would represent $5 billion. Silver as coinage for trade (much easier than gold) could be used in event of banking rules such as recently happened in the Argentina economic meltdown. This is one way to pass on inheritance wealth (quietly) without taxation should inheritance (death) taxes be made law again. The U.S. inheritance tax (death tax) has been repealed, but could easily and is likely to be reinstated due to U.S. government budget deficit concerns.

A "Carry Tax" for citizen savers has been proposed and is being discussed by people within the U.S. government and in the Japanese government." This tax is upon savings if held too long a period. The idea is to get savers to spend their fiat and thereby stimulate economic activity. The question becomes, "what is savings?" Does this include bank savings accounts, certificates of deposits, Christmas clubs, IRA accounts or just currency?

Already the U.S. government is printing currency with different designs and at some point will declare a fiat design of a period past to be worthless. The government will claim this practice eliminates criminal gained money, laundered money, and even terrorist related money. There is even discussion of marking fiat with a date, so that if held too long, the government will accept it only at a discount to the face value.

If a certificate of deposit is paying 2.8 percent and the carry tax is 3 percent, this is a no brainer negative return on savings even if inflation is zero percent. Who is going to have an incentive to open a savings account? Will banks offer higher interest rates to entice people to put money in the bank without the Fed raising their interest rates? This could produce an incentive for physical silver or other non perishable portable assets as a savings tool. The current U.S. savings rate is about 2%/year of the 10,000 billion Gros Domestic Product which is $200 billion. Savers might choose (a no brainer) to divert 2.5% of this into physical silver which is $5 billion. than to receive a negative return on savings investments.

Saudi Arabia princes of which several are billionaires fearing overthrow may convert fiat assets into physical gold and silver. These princes if forced into exile are likely to find that Saudi Arabia bank notes (especially electronic bank equivalencies) will not be available, accepted or useful in exile. A similar experience is ongoing but never mentioned in the U.S. media about Iraq bank notes.

I think that a combined purchase of $5 billion of physical silver would not strain the combined budgets of a few princes. Such a purchase might be used as a political/economic leverage weapon in dealing with those of non Islamic beliefs or those of Islamic beliefs they do not agree with. There is now near civil war in Saudia Arabia with terrorism by various radical Islam groups. The Saudi banking system and the government is reported to be in trouble as a result of "exuberant irrational" spending in past years which is now out of control.

Manufacturers who use silver as a raw material for their product quickly fear disruption or shortages of physical silver since it shuts down manufacturing. Therefore, manufacturers sensing a disruption or shortage, will move from "Just In Time" procurement of silver to "silver stockpiling." Manufacturers world wide might double their purchases for a one year of silver stockpiles to keep their manufacturing facilities working during any interruptions of physical silver. This translates into $5 billion worth of silver.

Fear of U.S. dollar devaluation by foreign holders of U.S. assets could cause significant repatriation of the investments. Foreign Investments in the U.S. exceed $2,000 billion. One means of extracting asset value and repatriating the asset value is to purchase portable non perishable assets such as silver. A conversion of 0.25% into silver is $5 billion.

Changes in U.S. Brokerage portfolio recommendations include a growing but still small U.S. brokerage firm mantra that recommend all portfolios contain 1% to 5% in precious metal investments (usually of the paper form as mining stocks) If the U.S. stock market capitalization is about 9,000 billion dollars and if 0.055% of this capitalization is diverted into physical silver, then this represents $5 billion. Current silver mining stock capitalization is about three billion dollars.

SILVER COINAGE FACTORS

Nevada has introduced legislation to bring back a silver coin for currency/memorabilia usage in Nevada. I don`t see this as being allowed to happen by the federal government. However, if 100 million visitors/year each bought only one ounce of silver ($0.5 billion), this would still be far short of causing a silver market corner, but would effect the silver market prices. It is unlikely such a program would be successful in causing a 100 million visitors to buy $50/visitor which is $5 billion.

Mexican Libertad coinage is a proposed coin for currency in Mexico. There is a well written editorial that can be found at http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/salinas061103.html "Mexican `Libertad` coin" by Hugo Price

This editorial is interesting in saying that Mexico has about 50 billion U.S. dollars doing nothing but acting as a reserve for Mexican banks. The idea is that a portion of it, say ($5 billion) of it might be used for making these silver coins and instilling (unplanned) confidence in the Mexican economy, increasing bank profits, and providing a means for alleviating Mexican citizen fears and expectations of continuing Mexican peso devaluations. Please note that this proposal provides an average of about 10 Libertarian ($50/citizen) coins for each of the 100 million Mexican citizens.

Argentina silver coinage is talked about as one means of trying stop or stabilize the Argentina chaos and economic collapse as a result of $100+ billion default on banks loans to foreign banks. This economic chaos, civil unrest, and hyper inflation is not being reported in U.S. media. In my opinion, it is doubtful that an Argentina silver coin will be used in the near future. History indicates a dictator will arise from hyperinflation. Such an Argentina dictator might use $5 billion for physical silver that would entrench him with further powers that otherwise would have been used to pay on defaulted debt. A side note is that Argentina is said to mean "Little Silver." Only a 50% probability of this happening is given by Jim Willie CB.

Islamic based coinage and banking is being considered in business transactions by various countries. Islamic religion deems currency as the Dinar gold coin (4.25 grams) and the Dirham silver coin (3.00 grams) with a relationship where 7 Dinars trade for 10 Dirhams. This ratio is interesting in that 1 ounce of gold is nearly equal to 1 ounce of silver for a Gold/Silver ratio of 1. In the current 2003 market place the ratio of gold to silver is $360/$4.50 = 80. Is it possible in an Islamic country to exchange 1000 ounce worth of Dirhams for 1000 ounce of Dinars and return with the gold Dinars for meltdown in the U.S.?

Islamic banking requires 100% reserves of bank notes and no interest can be paid on loans. Whether Islamic based countries "walk the talk" in their beliefs remains problematic. However, I think an Islamic bank should have no trouble putting together $5 billion from oil sales to purchase silver for minting Dirhams. However, if trading is then kept to only between true Islamic believers, it might work for a while.

Currently, world wide oil is priced in U.S. dollars. However, Venezuela fearing U.S. dollar deflation plans to price its oil in Euro`s. Rumors abound that Saudi Arabia plans to soon price its oil in Euro`s as well. There is an remote possibility that Islamic oil could be priced in gold and silver according to Islamic law instead of U.S. dollars, Euro`s or Yen. A change in oil from being priced in U.S. dollars will have devastating effects on U.S. banking/financial institutions and accelerate U.S. dollar devaluations. In my opinion, A U.S. dollar devaluation of 20% or more within a year is a realistic projection.

GREED FACTORS

Foreign take over of a U.S. Large commercial bank such as Citibank or JPM Morgan is a possibility. These two banks are said to be involved in derivatives. with notation values on the order of $47,000 billion. Most have to do with interest rate and currency hedges. One means of a foreign entity taking over one of these banks is to enter into derivative contracts including performance insurance for physical silver delivery worth $5 billion at a particular date(s). In event of a contract failure to deliver, there would be rights by the foreign entity to claim punitive damage far larger than the physical silver value. The foreign entity would insist on physical deliver to a destination outside of the U.S. knowing the bank is unable to meet its agreement terms. Part of the punitive damage awards could be parts of the U.S. bank being sold to foreign entity.

Bank physical silver leasing is alleged by Ted Butler to have approached one billion ounces ($5 billion.) I have to yet to see publicly reported the names of any bank or amounts of any physical silver so leased. I have no confirming source that this has actually taken place. There is obviously a market for physical silver leasing since Kitco produces charts of physical silver leasing rates. When banks are experiencing profit losses from other bank operations, they may choose to demand physical silver at the end of silver leases knowing full well that it cannot be delivered. Thus, they may achieve a pure profit by contract revision whereby the silver lessee pays the current silver (paper) market price plus a hefty penalty.

Foreign Billionaire Investors might precipitate or lead a silver market corner U.S. Billionaires such as Warren Buffet and Bill Gates are unlikely to knowingly cause a silver market corner. This is because they have large U.S. financial holdings which are at risk of loss/interference by U.S. government politicians and regulators. However, Warren Buffet by his purchase of 130 million oz of silver and Bill Gates 10% holdings in Pan American Silver are positioned to take advantage of a silver market corner.

George Soros of British origin is a possibility as are many Islamic oil billionaires. George Soros is very secretive in his dealing but has taken a position through formation of a company acquiring rights to silver mining properties.

Government export taxes on newly mined silver.

Physical silver exporting countries in order to increase employment or revenue might apply export taxes on raw silver or require silver be exported tax free only if it has been fabricated into something such as film, jewelry, electrical, mirrors, or biocides. This might be a cover for attempts to increase political leverage in dealings with the U.S. or another country. This could cause disruption of silver movements in the world but probably not a market corner. It is doubtful at the moment that one or more of these countries will implement such laws. Six countries with mined silver output which could implement such laws are:

FINAL NOTE: Remember to always "expect the unexpected" in the silver market!

May the reader experience financial prosperity, good health, spiritual growth, and freedom in the coming days and years!

Wally Bently

2003 July 1st

All flames and comments are appreciated. I reply to most e-mail. Reply to [e-mail]

DISCLAIMER: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything! Do your own due diligence!

[sebastianus]

Hallo ThaiGuru !

Islamic religion deems currency as the Dinar gold coin (4.25 grams) and the Dirham silver coin (3.00 grams) with a relationship where 7 Dinars trade for 10 Dirhams.

= IST UNRICHTIG ! Nicht "trade" sondern "weight" Dies bezieht sich auf das Gewichtsverhältnis gemäß den islamischen Schriften
und ist KEIN KAUFKRAFT-VERHÄLTNIS !!!!

This ratio is interesting in that "1 ounce of gold is nearly equal to 1 ounce of silver" for a Gold/Silver ratio of 1. = UNRICHTIG!!!

Schade, dass viele gute Argumente wegen diverser emotionaler Unsachlichkeiten eine Menge potentieller Investoren nicht erreichen.

Aber Silber ist preislich super günstig.

Viele Grüsse - Sebastianus

[bluemoons]

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2003/070…

[hpoth]

Silber ist unentschieden und tendiert seit August 2002 seitwärts,vermittelt aber den Eindruck,daß es sich bald für eine neue Richtung entscheiden wird.So schwer der Ausbruch über $ 5 zu bewerkstelligen ist, es könnte aber noch in 2003 gelingen.Immerhin sind die Aussichten für die indische Silbernachfrage 2003 gut,und die minenproduktion stagnierte schon 2002 erstmals seit sieben Jahren.Dazu kommt das nun schon über ein Jahrzehnt andauernde Silberdefizit ( schonso offt hier vorgekaut und trotzdem bleibt es beim niedriegen Preis),wodurch die Silberlager über der Erde immer mehr abnehmen.Entscheidend wird aber sein,ob die Investoren endlich dem Beispiel von Warren Buffet folgen und sich etwas Silber zulegen.Übrings zeigt Zink ein ähnliches Bild.Entnommen aus der Juli Ausgabe von Gold&Money.gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Könntest Du bitte öfters solche positiven Meldungen zum Silberpreis posten?

Es schein die Leser anscheinend zu motivieren Silber zu kaufen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silverpwd]

Kauf:

Silber Call bei 4,62

Verkauf bei 4,75-4,80

Gold: Noch immer kein Kauf, obwohl das Inflationsszenario mir mittlerweile mehr einleuchtet.

[hpoth]

Das sehe ich doch etwas anders, der Gold Trend ist intakt,wenn man langfristig handelt spielt das Timing keine so große Rolle,wir hatten eine voraussehbare Korrektur bis 345, selbst wenn es bis 330 im Juli noch gehen sollte ist das ohne größeren Schaden.Es könnte sogar einen neuen Anlauf im Juli noch starten,Wiederstand liegt bei 350 und 360$.Ein Durchbruch in Richtung 400 setzt voraus, daß wir im Londoner Nachmittagsfixing mit 366$ überschritten werden kann.Das wird nicht leicht sein und schnell gehen.Wichtig : Die Goldpreise laufen in einem Dreieck zwischen 370 und 320 zusammen.Die 50% Korrektur ergab ein Goldpreis von 345.Aber Entscheidend war der Durchbruch durch 330, der im vergangenen Jahr gelang.Der Hauptwiederstand liegt nun zwischen 380 und 414.Darüber ist der Weg frei für erheblich höhere Goldpreise.gruß hpoth

[silvo]

Hallo HPOTH und alle anderen!!

Bin für Gold nach wie vor äußerst optimistisch.


Grund:
Es steigt, obwohl sich im Moment noch "kein Schwein" dafür interessiert.


Aussage von meiner Hausbank letzte Woche:

Gold ist Megaout,
das interessiert keinen,
davon will keiner was hören,
sie sind unser einzige Kunde der sich für Gold interessiert,
jetzt wo der DAX die 3200 erreicht hat kann man doch wieder in Allianz,etc investieren -



(was für eine Logik???!!!)
Gold -- jetzt geht`s erst richtig los!!

[silverpwd]

@Silvio

Das stimmt nicht, dass sich für Gold niemand interessiert.
Auf NTV letztes Jahr einige Sendungen mit Goldkommentaren. Der NT-V Werbespot: `Kaufen sie etwas Gold` der permanent kam. Im Februar dieses Jahres massive Werbung für Gold in den USA.
Zugegeben , es ist ruhiger geworden, allerdings ist das Krisen-Geschreie allerorts immer noch sehr hoch, damit auch das Interesse an Gold. Vor ein paar Jahren gab es noch nichtmal solche Threads wie diesen hier.
Gold wird erst nachhaltig ansteigen bei einer neuen Krise oder Inflation, von der aber (noch) nichts zu sehen ist.

[jeffery2]

Vielleicht ist Allianz doch nicht so schlecht.
Wie sagte doch der Betroffene neulich (nein nicht Fried...)
"Den Schw..z verbrannt, das Callgirl kichert, hoffentlich Allianz versichert.
J2

[bmann025]

@silverpwd,

von Inflation ist tatsächlich wenig zu sehen, weil Globalisierung und Überkapazitäten auf die Preise drücken.

Durch Fiskalpolitik wird der wünschenswerte Abbau von Überkapazitäten verhindert.

Nur, für knappe, kaum vermehrbare Güter wie z.Z. Kakao oder demnächst evtl. Gold gelten diese Betrachtungen nicht.

Grüße

[hpoth]

@ThaiGuru,

ja, wenn es sich so ergibt.Aber es wird noch etwas Zeit vergehen, Silber kann ausbrechen.
Quelle:www.futures.tradingcharts.com Gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

Also, ich denke mehr an den Währngscrash Dollar,Yen und später auch der Euro.Da ist es halb gut wenn man auch Gold hat für alle Fälle.hpoth

[silverpwd]

Siehe dazu mein Kommentar vom Thread JGB - Short

"Um so länger ich über die Sache brüte, um so mehr komme ich zu dem unweigerlichen Schluss, dass der Euro fallen wird, die Höchkurse wurden/werden dieses Jahr gesehen.
UND die Goldbullen könnten verdammt recht haben, den Gold steigt, wenn alle Währungen inflationieren (Gold steigt m.M. nicht grossartig, wenn es eine Rettungswährung wie zuletzt den Euro gibt). Das ist die einzige logische Konsequenz der Politik von Japan, dann der von USA und als letzter und wie immer dähmlichster Nachzügler Europa ist. Stabilitätspakt ist vermutlich unter Insider schon ne Lachnummer. Schröder mit seiner Steuersenkung machts dem Reagan nach, was bekanntlich zu einem grossen Dollarverfall geführt hat, allerdings mit Resultat der 90iger. Frankreich und Italien werden liebreizend gerne mitmachen. Der alte Kosto hatte wieder mal verdammt recht, als er vor vielen Jahren für Europa eine ernsthafte Gefahr im Stabilitäspkat sah, nun beginne ich zu begreifen. Deflation - Ich lach mich schlapp."

[Tombstone]

Thai Guru,

apropo Silberenthortung und Produktionsdefizite solltest Du nochmal genau bei www.silverinstitute.org nachlesen.
Da stehen nämlich folgende Zahlen
2001 - 9,5 Mio Unzen Angebotsüberhang
2002 - 20,9 Mio Unzen Nachfrageüberhang

Das sind zu vernachlässigende Mengen in Anbetracht eines jährlichen Gesamtvolumens von ca. 900 Mio. Unzen von Nachfrage/Angebot.

Insofern ist ein Silberpreisansiteg (und erst recht ein baldiger) keineswegs als zwingend logisch zu betrachten.

Tombstone

[sebastianus]

Quelle : djnews shanghai

The Chinese government has decided to launch spot silver trading at the newly established Shanghai White Platinum and Silver Exchange.
The silver exchange launched a pilot trading program in late April and obtained final approval from the State Economic and Trade Commission just recently.

Dies wird also die Silbernachfrage ankurbeln :-)
Erster Handelstag 8. Juli 2003

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[bluemoons]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/rodin070703.html

[bluemoons]

Is Red China the Big Silver Short?

By: Theodore Butler





Sometimes, but very rarely, through sheer intelligence and experience, one is able to pinpoint a future event with remarkable precision. Kind of like the scene in the movie, "The Godfather", where the old Don, wounded and aging, warns and counsels his son-successor to beware of him who comes first to make the peace, as he will be the true enemy. That was the movies, of course, but I have my own silver Godfather of sorts in my friend Izzy. I must say that he is the smartest person I have encountered in my life. For years, he has been counseling me that one of the signs that we were likely to explode soon in price, would be the appearance, out of the blue, of bearish stories on silver. He also said that by analyzing the stories carefully, when they came, we could learn the identity of the big silver short.

When I read the following story released today, Izzy`s prediction rang loud and clear. After all, who would be more likely to spread bearish stories than a big short? I want to post the entire story here, in the interest of objective analysis:

Shanghai, July 7 (Dow Jones) - China`s silver exports in 2003 are expected to reach at least 2,100 metric tons as steady gains for spot silver prices in global markets will encourage more exports in the second half of this year, an executive with a Beijing-based think-tank said Monday. Tang Wujun, vice general manager of semi-official think-tank Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., predicted that the upward trend in spotsilver would last through the rest of this year if a global economic recovery took place.

Although spot silver has fallen from around $5.10 a troy ounce in mid-2002, it has been posting slight but steady gains recently. It was quoted at $4.67-$4.69/oz at 0700 GMT in London Monday, up slightly from $4.48-$4.52/oz quoted a month ago.

Furthermore, "our silver production each year is pretty much larger than our consumption... Therefore, we have to seek overseas buyers to digest our large supply," Tang told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of the China Silver Forum in Shanghai.

China is expected to produce a total of 2,400 tons of silver metal from silver ores as well as slightly over 2,000 tons of silver metal from recycled metal scrap, according to Tang. The country`s silver consumption is pegged at only 1,800 tons in 2003. Although this represents an increase of 10% from last year, it is still much lower than total output this year.

In order to reduce the severe oversupply of silver, the Chinese government was likely to sell less state reserves to the public this year, sources close to the government said.

Last year, the government sold 1,600 tons of silver from its reserves, making it the world`s largest seller of silver.
---
China Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires, (86-21) 6218-3268
[e-mail]

Now that you`ve read the entire story, I`d like to analyze it. First off, it has a distinctly bearish bent. There`s no other way to interpret, "the severe oversupply of silver....". Remember, we are talking about a commodity in a documented worldwide deficit. Oversupply and deficit are contradictory. It`s either one or the other, you can`t have both. You either believe the accepted deficit statistics published by western market sources, which are verified by the decline in visible inventories, or you believe a Communist government`s attempt to influence the market. And please don`t overlook the obvious. Ask yourself this - why is Red China suddenly so generous and open in sharing sensitive commodity information? Do you think they are trying to help you?

As far as the numbers used in story, I will assume them to be correct. China does refine, from ores and recycled material combined, 4400 tons of silver per year, or about 140 million ounces, making them the largest silver refiner in the world. What the story doesn`t say is that the bulk of these ores and recycled material are imported into China, as there`s no way you can recycle 2000 tons of silver when you consume 1800 tons. As I have previously written about China, it has become the refiner of silver of last resort, due to its blind eye towards pollution. In other words, China is refining silver that was previously refined elsewhere, there has been no net increase in world silver refining production or capacity. The production capacity was switched to China. The story avoided that point - intentionally, in my opinion.

Also of interest in the story was the fact that domestic Chinese consumption grew 10% last year, or almost 200 tons. That means if Chinese silver consumption grows by that amount over the next five years (a given, according to consensus expectations), China will be consuming 1000 more tons of silver annually, or an additional 30 million ounces than currently.

The most important information in the story was the very last sentence, which stated that the Chinese sold 1,600 tons, or over 50 million ounces, from government holdings. It said that China was the world`s largest silver seller. Please think about that for a moment. In spite of an obvious attempt to show how much silver China was producing and exporting, there was the stark reality that the Red Chinese government sold (dumped, via leasing) more than 50 million ounces of silver last year, from official government stockpiles. That is all you need to know. It shows how the talk of oversupply is utter nonsense. It confirms the worldwide deficit in silver. In fact, it does a lot more than that.

Recent statistics show a worldwide deficit in silver of around 65 million ounces. That means that just one country, Red China, supplied almost 80% of the existing inventories necessary to balance that deficit. Clearly, without this "donation" from the Red Chinese, silver prices would be much, much higher. If the Chinese didn`t dump more than 50 million ounces of existing inventory on the market, the silver would have to come from other sources. If it had to come from other sources, only sharply higher prices could have drawn it to the market. That`s how markets work. Stated simply - Red China, just about by itself, has kept silver prices depressed.

Two questions should be crossing your mind - one, what would the price of silver have been if China didn`t dump 50 million ounces from official holdings? If you believe in the law of supply and demand, then you know what the answer is - a lot higher. The second question is why would the Chinese dump silver (at historically low prices) at all? Especially when so much refining capacity has been shifted to China. After all, you would think the Chinese would benefit from higher prices and would work towards those higher prices. It is in the attempt to answer this question logically, that my silver Godfather`s prediction rings true - Red China is probably the big short in silver. If true, there is one thing of which you can be certain - Red China is working hand in hand with one or more of the Silver Managers

Why would China (or a group of Chinese companies working together) be the big short in silver? There are several possibilities. One, is to make money. As I wrote recently, the Silver Managers have made billions of dollars from COMEX futures and options. Maybe Red China was the big customer that the Silver Managers were hiding behind and working with. They divided the profits. Profits that came from the technical funds and others. Profits made possible from the market control gained by being the world`s largest silver seller. With Red China working in cahoots with the Silver Managers, the CFTC would be tricked into thinking this was legitimate hedging. Legitimate, in a pig`s foot. If Red China was the big short on the COMEX, while at the same time dumping inventory to depress the price, that doesn`t make the price any less manipulated. It just means that China was the mastermind and/or muscle behind the manipulation.

Other possibilities for why China would manipulate silver prices, include an even uglier motivation than just amassing big COMEX trading profits. China is obviously dramatically increasing its share of world silver refining capacity. Perhaps Red China`s motive is to keep silver prices artificially low, by dumping silver on the market and shorting like crazy on the COMEX, in order to drive other refining competitors out of business. Motive or not, that is exactly what has occurred. Once enough competition is eliminated, Red China will be in position to set prices to the upside, since they control such a dominant silver refining market share. There are more domestic and international laws that make such predatory pricing and business practices illegal than you could ever name. If it comes out that the CFTC and COMEX management had knowledge that China was, in fact, involved in this manipulative silver scam, they should be drawn and quartered. And if the Silver Managers think they can pass the buck to the Red Chinese, and keep their illicit gains in COMEX silver trading, they better think again.

Think of the negative strategic implications of having Red China dictate silver prices, first down, then up. Silver is a vital component in thousands of industrial applications. That means if silver is unavailable, entire production lines will shut down and workers will be sent home. The US Government, and its western counterparts, are now officially out of silver. All run silver deficits. All must import large amounts of silver. Red China is now the largest silver refiner in the world, and is increasing its share. At some point, Chinese industrial consumption will rise to the level where there is no silver available for export. To watch this develop is distressing to me. When there is not enough silver to go around, and factories around the world must close because of that, you can be sure Red China`s factories will take preference over US or European factories for China`s silver refining production. And, unfortunately, we have had two wars since I wrote about the defense implications of the US Government running out of silver and being dependent upon imports for more than 50 per cent of US consumption. Having Red China emerge as the largest silver refiner in the world, make matters a lot worse potentially.

What does this China story mean to silver investors? For one thing, it suggests a major name as the manipulator of a major market. This, I suppose, is how it must be. More importantly, it doesn`t change anything. The silver market has been manipulated by leasing and uneconomic short selling on the COMEX. The Silver Managers are still the ringleaders. Having Red China emerge as the customer behind the Silver Managers fits perfectly. Motive, means and opportunity. And it explains (almost) how the CFTC and COMEX could turn a blind eye towards the manipulation right in front of them.

Both the CFTC and the COMEX are concerned with futures and options trading. Even though I have presented almost irrefutable evidence of violations of futures trading law (specifically violations of speculative position limits and manipulative COMEX warehouse movements), they have managed to sidestep the issue. But they are definitely not used to dealing with foreign nations involved in dumping. Usually, the Federal Trade Commission or the Commerce Dept. handle dumping charges. But, once it is brought to their intention that a foreign nation, particularly a non-democratic and communist dictatorship, may be involved in both futures law violations and physical commodity dumping, the CFTC and COMEX must open their eyes. Red China is sending unambiguous statements that they are dumping silver and are establishing themselves as the world silver refining powerhouse. If it turns out that China is also a kingpin in COMEX paper trading, that would complete the scam. This should be as simple for the CFTC to prosecute as a paint-by-numbers exercise for a 5 year-old.

I will not ask the CFTC and the COMEX if Red China is a big player on the COMEX, as I know what they will say - the law prevents us from disclosing the identity of traders. But the law also demands that they take action when manipulation and dumping are evident. Is their something about full disclosure that is so sacred that it preempts manipulation? Or are the CFTC and COMEX just selectively interpreting the law?

Will Izzy`s premonition that bearish stories on silver prove to be the timing indicator for the major move? Time will tell, but the reasoning certainly sounds logical to me. After all, why would anyone make up bearish stories at this point? The only answer seems to be to send intentional false signals. Maybe Red China has exhausted its government holdings of silver. It seems they have sold well over 150 million ounces over the past 3 years. They will run out someday. Maybe these intentionally planted stories mean they are out of silver to dump, and they are trying to convince others to sell silver, based upon their phony bearish stories. This too is against US commodity law.

The question silver investors must ask themselves is what will happen when the Chinese stop dumping 50 million ounces a year from inventories? We know that must happen, as these, and all, inventories are finite. Where will the silver come from to make up the loss of 50 million ounces of supply? More importantly, what price will be necessary to draw 50 million ounces out of the woodwork, when, not if, China stops dumping silver from inventory? Additionally, my common sense tells me that when China runs out of inventory to dump, it will no longer be the big paper seller of COMEX silver, if they have been the big short. That`s a giant double whammy to the upside.

Recently, I have read many stories on silver that mention manipulation and the short position on the COMEX. I think this is terrific and I congratulate the authors. I have raised these issues for more years than I care to remember, and it is gratifying to now see others write about them and confirm my analyses. It feels good not to be so alone, as I was for so many years. I think what may have been the catalyst for the recent trend of articles confirming my thesis has been my question, how can a market even be considered free, if it is in a long term deficit without rising prices? I am sure that the only answer to that question is that market must be manipulated. That is why no one, especially the CFTC and the COMEX, have been able to answer otherwise. That`s why I asked the question in the first place.

I think it is important for silver investors to always put this silver manipulation issue into proper perspective. While you might feel the outrage that I feel about the continuing manipulation, and now the possible involvement of Red China, you must also remember that this manipulation is your best friend. Without this manipulation, you would never have the opportunity to buy silver at such give-away prices. Perhaps it is Red China that has made it possible for you to achieve your financial dreams. But only if you seize the moment and buy real silver. Take it from my Silver Godfather - they are making you an offer you can`t refuse.


-- Posted Tuesday, July 8 2003

http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1057693171.php

[ThaiGuru]

Press Release Source: Sterling Mining Company

Sterling Mining Ramps Up Silver Valley Activity
Tuesday July 8, 10:30 am ET
Silver Valley Land Position Expanded
Kellogg Office Opened
Environmental Compliance Manager Hired


COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 8, 2003--Sterling Mining Company (OTC:SRLM - News) is pleased to report its recent activity in north Idaho`s "Silver Valley", where it recently assumed control of the Sunshine Mine, the richest silver mine in American history.
Sterling has signed state leases for over 1,000 additional acres of mineral claims, bringing its total Silver Valley land position to over 6,000 acres. The new leases cover ground to the south and southwest of the Sunshine and Bunker Hill mines, as well as west of Bunker Hill and south of the Page Mine.

Sterling has opened an office at the Sunshine Mine in Kellogg, Idaho. The office will serve as a base of operations for business at the Sunshine and elsewhere in the Valley.

Finally, Sterling has hired Robert Launhardt as the Environmental Compliance Manager for the Sunshine Mine. Mr. Launhardt has over thirty years experience at the Sunshine and was formerly a safety officer there prior to its closure in 2001.

Please visit the Sterling website at www.sterlingmining.com for more information.

Sterling Mining Company is an aggressive silver exploration company, focused upon the Coeur d`Alene Mining District, the richest primary silver-producing region on Earth. Sterling offers superior leverage to silver price increases through control of extensive and strategic "Silver Valley" landholdings, including the legendary Sunshine Mine, as well as through significant projects in other historic mining districts of the Western United States. Sterling was founded in 1903 and proudly celebrates a century of mining exploration this year.

Certain statements contained in this press release are "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on beliefs of management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to management. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Sterling Mining Company
Raymond DeMotte, 208/676-0599
www.sterlingmining.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Sterling Mining Company

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cf…

Saturday July 12, 2003

The White Metal



" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"...Silver is different...and it always has been different. For more than 3,000 years it was used as money. However, silver has not been used as money since the 1960s. Even so, the white metal is inherently valued higher than it would be if it were simply an industrial metal, especially during inflationary periods! I believe the federal government will be able to reflate the economy, and the result will be higher inflation. The price of silver will react the same way today as it did 30 years ago..."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

John Myers

Calgary, Canada

Twelve years ago, I was at the National Committee for Monetary Reforms` annual hard-money convention, founded by the late and great precious metals forecaster Jim Blanchard. After giving my speech, I had an opportunity to listen to Dan Rosenthal lead a round-table discussion on silver.

Dan had made a fortune for his subscribers in the 1970s with his Gold & Silver newsletter and was telling this gathering that by the end of the decade, the federal government would be forced to reflate the economy. When that happened, he predicted the price of silver would skyrocket.

At the end of the round table, Dan fielded questions. I raised my hand, trying not to look like an overly eager third-grader, and said, "In the modern economy isn`t silver just another industrial metal, no different from tin or zinc?"

"If that were the case," said Dan, "you wouldn`t even be here."

He was right, of course. I mean, how many people follow the daily price of lead? Silver is different, though, and it always has been different. For more than 3,000 years it was used as money. However, silver has not been used as money since the 1960s. Even so, the white metal is inherently valued higher than it would be if it were simply an industrial metal, especially during inflationary periods!

Stuck in the Middle

Almost 40 years after silver was taken out of U.S. coinage, most North American investors buy gold before they buy silver when the dollar weakens and inflation is looming. This tendency partly explains why silver has not had the rally that gold has experienced in the past two years.

But there`s another reason. Most institutions see the white metal as being in a no man`s land, between a possible deflation and potential inflation.

Deflation would have a crushing impact on the industrial side of the silver price equation. And as we mentioned, inflation would light a fire under the price of silver on the investment side.

A Coin Toss

So, what side will win out? I think we can expect the dollar to continue to weaken. That will make imports more expensive, pushing up the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which officially increases at about 3% annually. (I say officially because it is the federal government`s pronouncement of the rate of inflation.)

The CPI, calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is an inflation indicator. The CPI is an estimation of the price changes for a typical basket of goods and services. In other words, the prices of everyday things such as housing, food, education, clothing, etc., are compared from one month to the next, and the difference represents the CPI.

The index is calculated in relation to a base period set from 1982 to 1984 where it was set at 100. (The original CPI base dated from 1967, but the number got so huge that the federal government started all over again.) Even at 4% CPI, the value of a dollar is halved every 19 years. At 13%, a level it reached in the 1970s, the dollar`s value is cut in half every 5 1/2 years!

The graph below created by Robert Sahr, an associate professor at Oregon State University, shows that being a millionare today isn`t as tough as it used to be. In the early 1960s, it took a net worth of $200,000 to equal the value that $1 million has today. The graph also shows how inflation has become a permanent economic fixture. Notice how steeply the line has been rising since the early 1970s, or since President Nixon cut the gold/dollar tether in 1971.



If this number rises steeply, it means that the cost of living is rising, and therefore we have inflation. That is what happened in the 1970s, and the price of silver soared.

I believe the federal government will be able to reflate the economy, and the result will be higher inflation. The price of silver will react the same way today as it did 30 years ago.

White vs. Yellow

While many look at silver as a poor cousin to gold, it has at times significantly outperformed gold. It certainly did that during the 1970s. From 1971 to 1980 the price of silver skyrocketed, climbing from $1.30 per ounce to $50 per ounce. That was a gain of 3,746%! During the same period, the price of bullion rose from $35 per ounce to $800 an ounce -- a gain of 2,186%.

Since 1980, silver has been in a bear market with only the occasional spike, such as the breakout it had in early 1998, when it soared to $7.50 per ounce.

In 2001, silver established a 28-year bottom of $4.14 per ounce. In 2002, it moved its floor price to $4.50 and has moved up over the past few months, putting it in striking distance of the psychologically important $5-per-ounce benchmark. Once it clears $5, the next technical resistance is in the $5.60 to $5.90 range. If it breaches this barrier, the white metal will not face any technical resistance until $7.70.

That means that silver is very cheap at its current price. It also has very attractive fundamentals as an industrial metal.

Drawdown in Silver Supplies

The current supply and demand picture is extremely bullish. For 13 years annual demand has outpaced new supplies -- in some cases by huge margins of as much as 100 million ounces. In fact, the cumulative deficit rung up over the past 13 years totals 1.2 billion ounces, more than total annual world demand.

Any first-year economics major will tell you that supplies cannot fall behind demand indefinitely without a resulting increase in price. So why hasn`t silver moved up in light of the drawdown in aboveground supplies?

"The problem," says Sue Rutsen, a commodity broker at Fox Investments, "is nobody really knows the size of aboveground supply, which includes not only silver bullion held by bullion banks but also the silverware and bagged coins stuck in display cases and sock drawers all over the world."

The void between new mine production and world demand has been made up for the past two decades by all the aboveground silver supplies. But commodity analysts believe that aboveground silver supplies are close to exhaustion.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The highest estimate of remaining aboveground supplies I`ve seen is 500 million ounces," says Sue. "That means that given current rates of mine output, the world will literally run out of silver in five years."

The good news for silver investors is they do not have to worry about the U.S. government`s strategic stockpile. It has been severely drained. The consensus estimate is that it holds only 200 million ounces.



As aboveground supplies of silver run down, demand will have to be entirely met by new mine production. But that will be an impossible order for the mining industry to fill. You see, the rolling recession of the 1980s put most of the nation`s silver mines out of business. Where once there were dozens of North American silver mining companies, there are today fewer than five. Almost 80% of newly mined silver is a byproduct of copper mining operations. Old silver mines cannot be opened quickly regardless of how high the precious metal`s price climbs.

Therefore, it is safe to assume that supplies of newly mined silver will probably not increase dramatically in the near future.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Silver has come off its lows, and that tells me that the "smart money" is already buying some inflation insurance in the form of silver. Once inflation becomes more apparent, silver will probably behave as it always has -- explosively.

A breakout above $5 would attract a lot of investor interest. And like gold and platinum, silver is a thin market. It would take very little buying to drastically push up the price of silver.

Just how high could it go over the next 18 months? I don`t think $12 per ounce is out of the question.



John Myers - son of the great goldbug C.V. Myers - has been helping readers earn suprisingly lucrative returns in stocks largely unknown to Wall Street`s wunderkinder since his early 20s. Our man on the scene in Calgary, John has his fingers on the pulse of natural resource profits - including oil, gas, energy and gold.

John has recently put together a report on terror in the Middle East and its effect on the oil price. Had you read it, the recent attacks in Riyadh would have come as no surprise... nor the oil spike that followed. For more information, you can find John`s report here:

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/OST/NiceWealth/

[Wavetrader]

#69/Warren Buffet: Der wird ja nun so häufig zitiert, dass ich gerne mal in die Runde fragen möchte, ob mir jemand eine Quelle nennen kann, aus der hervorgeht, dass er seine Silberinvestments überhaupt noch hat.

[konradi]

.

die Suchmaschinen liefern dazu nur Informationen die in das Jahr 1998 zurückreichen. ich vermute mal Berkshire Hathaway hat seine Gründe für diese dünne Informationspolitik ...

man schätzt aber, das Buffett Silberbarren im Wert von 650 Millionen USD besitzt...


in einer Pressemitteilung von Berkshire Hathaway aus dem Jahr 1998 hieß es:

The company owns 129,710,000 ounces of silver. Its first purchase was made on July 25, 1997 and its most recent purchase was made on January 12, 1998. Berkshire has no present plans for purchase or sale of silver. The position at cost comprises less than 2% of the company`s investment portfolio

ansonsten mal wieder - - die Standardlinks:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Puplava/jul032003.html
http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/deutsch-06.htm
http://www.hackemesser.de/DieRuhevordemSturm.html -und
http://www.silver-investor.com


im silver-investor schreibt u.a. David Morgan :

(...)

When Warren Buffett was associated with Solomon Brothers, the #1 trader nearly cornered the silver market by paying 20 cents more per ounce than anyone else. There were several expiring options that were out of the money. Everyone thought that these were expiring worthless, until the holder (Solomon Brothers/Buffett) decided to exercise the options at the strike price they held.

The next step was to simply take delivery of their silver. It should be that simple, especially in a free market. That of course is one of the BIG LIES about the silver market; it is not exactly a free market.

The dealers and Wall Street firms that held most of this silver ran to the U.S. Government and asked for relief from delivering what Solomon and bought and PAID for. Since there was not enough silver available, the rumor was that the government asked to meet with Mr. Buffett in private. Buffett backed down and the government made sure that Solomon did not lose any money. The government was willing to settle this embarrassing situation and pretend that the free market in silver still exists, when in fact is does not.

Warren Buffett`s most recent silver purchase started in the summer of 1997 and continued for several months. The lowest price on the COMEX during that time frame was around $4.40. The market recognized this in February of 1998 and silver advanced to over $6.50 an ounce. Mr. Buffett took delivery of about 90 million ounces of silver and gave the dealers more time to deliver the rest.

It is my strong opinion that Mr. Buffett leased out the remaining 40 million ounces.

Why do I make this assertion? Because, I have studied the annual report of Berkshire Hathaway which states the following:

"Line item 53. Miscellaneous items. 400,000,000$"

Now it was widely reported that Mr. Buffett bought 129 Million ounces. However, unless you were really alert you might have missed the fact that only 90 million ounces were delivered.

So silver at $4.40 (spot price at the time of the annual report) times 90 Million ounces is about equal to the $400 million dollars reported in the annual report. I think Mr. Buffett leased out the 40 million ounces and wouldn`t it be nice if Mr. Buffett asked for his silver to be returned in the middle of 2003, just about the time I see this market beginning a major move to the upside.

Another question we must ask is would Mr. Buffett lease out any of his silver? The first question, is self evident, to be nice to the "dealers" and knowing that Mr. Buffett once was asked to "cool it" in the silver market, why not be very accommodating this time around. He most likely let the dealers off the hook by leasing part of his holdings.

Secondly, Mr. Buffett does not like investments which are static and do not throw off any type of return such as a dividend. This would be added incentive for part of the silver to be leased. Mr. Buffett would earn a return on investment and the "money" would be working to produce income. Finally, by putting some of the silver at risk, it provides a method to relieve pressure that might come in the future.

Let us suppose that at the end of 2003, the silver market is very tight. Some in the financial community might recall that Mr. Buffett bought all that silver. It would be extremely beneficial if Berkshire Hathaway made the public statement that some silver had been leased and was not being returned. This might go a long way in relieving any political pressure that might appear.

My point is Warren Buffett knows as much as anyone about sound money and the potential for silver. He also is aware of the problem that dealers might some day have obtaining the rest of his silver purchase. So we know Buffett has loved silver for a long time, when he did make his purchases he moved the silver outside the jurisdiction of the U.S. for a very good reason. If there is any type of U.S. action taken in the silver market, Berkshire Hathaway`s silver is safely stored in London, outside U.S. jurisdiction.
(…)


---


zum Thema noch vier halbwegs aktuelle Einschätzungen:


FAZ - 21.03.2003 :

Silber glänzt matter als Gold

Mit Silber war in den vergangenen Jahren kein richtiger Staat zu machen. Der aktuelle Preis von 4,34 Dollar für die Feinunze wurde auch schon in den frühen 70er Jahren notiert und ist die seit 1990 weitgehend gültige Preisrange. [/b]
Die Lethargie, die sich in den relativ stabilen Preisen ausdrückt, wurde auch nicht nachhaltig dadurch beeinträchtigt, dass sich mit Warren Buffett, Bill Gates und George Soros die reichsten Männer dieser Welt seit einiger Zeit zu einem Engagement im Silber entschieden haben.


Noch keine Renaissance in Sicht

Dabei hatte Silber in den 70er Jahren einmal einen legendären Ruf erworben. Verantworltich dafür waren damals die Aktivitäten der Gebrüder Hunt. Diese hatten mit massiven Käufen den Silbermarkt derart manipuliert, dass die Preise von 1,50 Dollar im Jahr 1972 bis auf 48,70 Dollar im Jahr 1980 explodierten, ehe der Markt dann in sich zusammenbrach.

Von Turbulenzen dieser Art ist dieser Tage wenig zu spüren. Von der teilweise zu beobachtenden Renaissance einzelner Rohstoffe ist das Silber jedenfalls kaum erfasst worden. Auch den zwischenzeitlichen Aufschwung beim Gold hat es nur unterproportional mitgemacht. Und nach der jüngst zu verzeichnenden Preisabschwächung bleibt sogar abzuwarten, ob sich die zu Jahresbeginn von 18 Analysten erwartete Preisverbesserung auf 4,92 Dollar im Jahresvergleich realisieren lässt.


Chronisches Angebotsdefizit

Bei der seit Jahren müden Preisentwicklung spielt vermutlich eine wesentliche Rolle, dass Silber nicht mehr als Spekulationsinstrument wahrgenommen wird, sondern mehr als Industriemetall. Und da die Weltkonjunktur nicht richtig läuft, kommt eben auch der Preis nicht in Schwung.

Allerdings mutet die Preisstabilität vor dem Hintergrund schon erstaunlich an, dass das Angebot die Nachfrage seit Jahren übersteigt. So schätzen Experten wegen steigender Nachfrage das Angebotsdefizit im Jahr 2003 auf 163,0 Millionen Unzen. Das ist nicht nur der höchste Wert aller Zeiten sondern wäre auch die Verängerung der seit dem Jahr 1990 immer wieder jedes Jahr zu konstatierenden Defizite. Da sich die Lagerbestände gleichzeitig auf einem tiefen Niveau bewegen, könnte die Rechnung der Milliardäre Buffett, Gates und Soros vielleicht doch noch irgend wann aufgehen.


Silber ist hinter Gold zurückgefallen

Doch noch scheint die Zeiten für das Silber nicht gekommen zu sein. Bis es soweit ist, können sich die Investoren mit dem Studium der Geschichte und der Hintergrund des Edelmetalls beschäftigen. Bei diesen Recherchen, wobei der seit 1990 vom The Silver Institute publizierte World Silver Survey 2002 wertvolle Hilfe leisten kann, werden sie feststellen, dass Silber nach Kupfer und Gold das dritte Gebrauchsmetall war, welches die Menschen benutzten.
Dabei galt Silber zunächst als wertvoller als Gold, doch dieses Verhältnis hat sich längst gewandelt und im relativen Vergleich ist Silber in den vergangenen Jahren immer weiter zurückgefallen. Dabei hat vielleicht auch eine Rolle gespielt, dass Silber zwar ein seltenes Element ist, es aber etwa 20mal häufiger als Gold vorkommt.


Silber hat viele brauchbare Eigenschaften

Das chemische Symbol "Ag" für Silber, das einen Schmelzpunkt von 961,93 Grad Celcius hat, wurde von J.J. Berzelius im Jahre 1814 eingeführt und es steht an 67. Stelle der Elementhäufigkeit. Allgemein handelt es sich bei Silber um ein weißglänzendes und weiches Edelmetall. Es ist nach Gold das dehnbarste Metall und kann zu feinen, blaugrün durchscheinenden Folien von Blattsilber ausgewalzt werden. Das Edelmetall besitzt die beste elektrische und thermische Leitfähigkeit aller Metalle.

Es wird mit den meisten anderen Metallen - mit Ausnahme von Eisen und Cobalt legiert. Silber besitzt von allen Substanzen der Erde das höchste Reflexions- und Absorptionsvermögen für Licht. Diese Eigenschaft erklärt den strahlend weißen Metallglanz des Silbers. Nachgefragt und genutzt wird es vor allem in der Industrie, der Fotografie sowie der Silberwaren- und Schmuckindustrie.


Leicht manipulierbarer Markt

Die größten Produzentenländer sind Mexiko, USA, Peru, Kanada und Australien und als die größten Unternehmen gelten Industrias Penoles aus Mexiko, Polska Miedz aus Polen und BHP Minerals aus Australien.
In manchen Publikationen wird der Gesamtwert aller Silbermünzen und -barren, die jetzt für den Markt verfügbar sind, auf nur ungefähr 3,5 Milliarden Dollar beziffert. Bei 2,5 Milliarden Dollar ist die jährliche Produktion des Silbers um ein Achtel geringer als die des Goldmarktes.

Auch dies ist ein Indiz dafür, wie schnell der Preis in Bewegung geraten kann, wenn sich erst einmal mehr Investoren als nur die genannten Milliardäre dazu entscheiden sollten, dass Silber wieder eine lohnende Geldanlage sein könnte.


---


Handelsblatt 28.06.2003


Experten erwarten stabilen Silberpreis

Von KLAUS EHRINGFELD



Schlechte Zeiten für die Wirtschaft sind gute Zeiten für Edelmetalle. Von diesem Grundsatz konnte auch Silber im vergangenen Jahr profitieren. Zwar fielen die Wertsteigerungen nicht so spektakulär aus wie beim Gold, doch Silber verteuerte sich 2002 um rund 5 % zum Vorjahr auf durchschnittlich 4,60 $ pro Unze (ca. 31,1 Gramm). Metalle wie Kupfer, Blei und Zink verloren dagegen 2002 bis zu 12 %.


MEXIKO-STADT. „Wir werden beim Silberpreis auch in den kommenden Jahren keine großen Ausschläge sehen“, sagt der Präsident der mexikanischen Bergbau-Kammer, Sergio Almazán. Der Preis werde sich zwischen 4,30 und 5 $ bewegen. In den ersten vier Monaten 2003 notierte Silber mit durchschnittlich 4,55 $ je Unze. Den niedrigsten Stand seit 25 Jahren hatten die Silberpreise 1992 mit 3,94 $, seither schwanken sie zwischen 4,31 und 5,54 $
.
Ähnlich stabil wie der Preis seien auch die mittelfristigen Perspektiven für Silber; darin stimmen Experten überein. Die Nachfrage der Industrie und des Schmuck- und Silberwarensektors sei zuverlässig, betont Leopoldo Alarcón vom weltweit größten Silberminenbetreiber Industrias Peñoles in Mexiko. Beide Sektoren zusammen nehmen rund 75 % der Welt-Silberproduktion ab. Eingesetzt wird Silber vor allem in der Halbleiterfertigung, für Mobiltelefone, zur Herstellung von CD-Roms und Computerzubehör. Knapp ein Viertel der Silberproduktion wird im Fotosektor verarbeitet; der Rest entfällt auf die Herstellung von Münzen und Medaillen.

Einzig im Fotosektor drohe Ungemach, sagt Alarcón. Durch den Vormarsch der Digitalkameras könnte das Edelmetall langfristig verdrängt werden, wenn Filme irgendwann überflüssig werden. Nicht zuletzt deshalb suchen die Experten des Washingtoner Silberinstituts nach neuen Einsatzfeldern für Silber. So wird erforscht, ob es künftig das giftige Arsen als Imprägnierbestandteil für Holz ablösen kann.
Im vergangenen Jahr wurden weltweit insgesamt 585,9 Mill. Unzen Silber abgebaut, dies sind rund 3 % weniger als im Rekordjahr 2001. Den Produktionsrückgang führt das Silberinstitut, in dem sich Hersteller, Großhändler und Produzenten des Edelmetalls zusammengeschlossen haben, zum einen auf die weltweite Wirtschaftskrise zurück. Zum anderen wurde weniger Silber gefördert, weil große Blei- und Zinkminen wegen Unrentabilität geschlossen wurden; 75 % des Silbers fällt als Co-Produkt bei der Förderung von Gold, Kupfer oder bei der Blei- und Zink- Gewinnung an. Nur 25 % des weißglänzenden Edelmetalls werden in reinen Silberminen gefördert. Größter Produzent ist Mexiko. Hier wurden 2002 91,7 Mill. Unzen im Wert von ca. 421 Mill. $ gefördert. Zweitgrößter Produzent war Peru mit 88,8 Mill. Unzen. Größter Silberproduzent in Europa ist Polen mit 38,9 Mill. Unzen (2002).


---


Dow Jones Newswires - 20.06.2003

Kodak Puts Promising Silver Market Out Of Focus

By Jim Hawe


The dismal second-quarter forecast issued earlier this week by Eastman Kodak Co.
has left players in the silver market focusing on the negatives, which isn`t surprising
considering that the film giant is the first or second
largest buyer of this metal in any given year

However, a handful of market insiders are warning that investors who focus
too much on Kodak`s tribulations may miss the bigger picture - specifically,
that silver is still an undervalued commodity with plenty of upside.

Wednesday Kodak sharply curtailed its second quarter outlook due to
"significantly lower-than-expected" sales of consumer film and photographic
paper in Asia.

Kodak said industry wide sales of film in China during April and May were
nearly half the amount sold during the same period last year.

This could prove problematic for the silver market as it is believed that
Kodak purchases anywhere between 37 million and 50 million ounces of silver
annually, making it and Japan`s Fuji Photo Film Co. (FUJIY or 4901) the biggest
buyers of silver in the world.

The film industry is dependent on silver as the photographic process is based
on the presence of light-sensitive silver halide crystals. Silver is a key
component in both photographic film and the paper on which photos are
developed.

"The SARS outbreak, as well as concern about geopolitical tensions, is
keeping people from participating in activities that foster picture taking,"
said Kodak Chairman and Chief Executive Daniel Carp in a statement.

However, Tony Locantro, Senior Private Client Adviser with brokerage firm
Paterson Ord Minnett in Perth, said he believes this is only a temporary
setback, and he expects shutter-bugs will be back snapping pictures in no time.


"The decline in photography is unfortunate for the silver market, but this is
only a temporary problem that will recover in line with the travel industry,
which is expected to be stimulated by higher advertising expenditures and
record low airfares," said Locantro.


Dips May Provide Buying Opportunities


A metals trader with a big commodities house in Tokyo cautions that Kodak`s
second-quarter warning could be used as fodder for rumormongers looking to stir
up the market.

"The silver market is rather small and illiquid and so any rumors that a
major player like Kodak will be reducing its silver purchases could really
damage the market," says this trader.

To illustrate his point, this trader noted that ever since U.S. investor
Warren Buffet bought 130 million ounces of silver in 1997, the market has been
frequently visited by rumors that Buffet is either selling or adding to this
position sometimes resulting in dramatic price movements.

Still, Paterson Ord Minnett`s Locantro remains bullish on silver over the
long term, suggesting that price dips from this point could offer up good
buying opportunities.

Spot silver was quoted at just over $4.60 an ounce prior to the Kodak`s
announcement late Wednesday in the U.S., but slipped to $4.55 Thursday in Asia.
It was quoted at $4.57 an ounce Friday in Asia, unchanged from overnight in New
York.

Locantro said silver market fundamentals, particularly that demand continues
to outpace supply, are the main reason why investors should be giving this
metal more than just a "curious glance."

According to the London-based research group Gold Fields Mineral Services
Ltd., the combined silver demand in 2002 for industrial use, photography,
jewelry and coins outpaced supply from silver mines and scrap by 67.4 million
ounces, to mark the 14th straight year that supply has failed to keep pace with
demand.

So where does Locantro see the silver price headed?

"I envision a solid break above $5 for silver and above $400 for gold. This
would attract further interest in mining company shares and fuel further
momentum for spot prices."

Locantro is sticking to his earlier projection of spot silver moving into a
$5.50-$5.75 range later this year.

"This is based on a combination of market tightness and increasing Indian and
investment demand," said Locantro, suggesting that despite Kodak`s woes, the
overall picture for the silver market isn`t so bleak.


---


CPM Group: Myths in the Silver Market

26.05.2002


Precious Metals and Commodities Research and Consulting The precious metals markets are secretive
places. That is one of their attractions to many investors and others who value privacy. It poses problems
for all market participants, however, because it makes these markets, so small and illiquid compared to
other financial markets, susceptible to rumours and manipulation. While there is nothing new to this, in
recent weeks and months the silver market has been repeatedly hit by rumours spread by traders and
others seeking to scare users and investors. Market professionals cite the persistence of these rumours as a
major factor in the decline in silver prices below $4.90 since October 2000.

It is important to distinguish among myths, rumours, beliefs, and misinterpretations. In free markets, as in
free countries, everyone is entitled to his or her opinion and beliefs. The precious metals markets are no
exception to this, with some individuals holding strong beliefs that do not necessarily measure up to
empirical market evidence. The point of this brief discussion is not to seek to sway anyone from deeply
held beliefs, but rather to set the record straight on certain fundamentals that have been distorted by
persistent rumours and misrepresentations.


Myth 1:

The Chinese government is selling large amounts of silver from its stocks The issue of silver
sales from Chinese government stocks has been one of the most pervasive topics of discussion in the
silver market, and perhaps the most misunderstood. The topic came to a head in early 2000 when
rumours were circulated of large amounts of silver entering the market. Not so coincidentally, these
rumours began at the same time that the liberalization of the Chinese silver market was taking a great leap
forward on January 1, 2000. The Chinese silver market has been closely controlled by the People`s Bank
of China since the Communist Revolution in 1949. The PBOC has been moving toward deregulating the
gold and silver markets within the country, and extricating itself from the role of national market maker.
This has led to massive shifts in the flow of silver around China, compounded by structural changes in the
Chinese photographic industry that has led to large amounts of silver that formerly went to Chinese film
makers now being available for export. These changes have radically transformed the entire metals
market within China, and have led to increased exports of silver, and gold, over the past few years. The
inaccuracy is the assumption that these exports represent government sales from the central bank`s
inventories. There have been some sales from these stocks, but they are a small portion of the total
amount of metal being exported. Some estimates by PBOC silver sales run as high as 60 million ounces.
Chinese government sales actually have been around 10 million ounces or so per year in recent years, and
are expected to be roughly 12.0 - 14.5 million ounces in 2001. Most silver exports have been by domestic
refiners processing base metal concentrates and domestic scrap. In the long run the new laws may lead to
a decrease in exports as domestic refiners now can receive higher prices within China, reducing the
incentive to smuggle metal out, and domestic consumers and investors now can pay lower prices for
silver within China.


Myth 2:

Digital photography already is sharply decreasing silver use in photography It has been
repeatedly suggested for nearly two decades that digital photography would one day replace traditional
silver-halide based photography entirely. More recently, there have been suggestions that the declines are
already in place and eroding photographic demand for silver. Again, this is not accurate. Silver use in
photographic materials—papers and films—is estimated to have risen about 6.0% worldwide in 2000.
Demand is estimated to have increased 8.3% in the United States, and 6.3% in Japan. Major photographic
companies are increasing their manufacturing capacity in the face of stronger demand growth. From 1980
through 1998 the compounded annual growth rate in silver use in photography was around 4.0%. Last
year`s increase was 50% above that long term trend growth rate. This represents a definite acceleration in

the demand for silver-bearing photograph-ic products that flies in the face of the rumours that digital is
killing this market. One of the main reasons for the recent strength—ironically enough—has been the
advent of digital photography, although most of the increased silver use reflects expanding traditional
photography. Consumer appetites for conventional photography have been growing stronger world-wide.
The Advanced Photo System introduced in the late 1990s has boosted both picture taking and the number
of reprints being made, while rising disposable income from Asia to Latin America has increased demand
in these countries. Also, most consumers are not ready for digital photography at this point, with the cost
still prohibitively high for most people in the world and many consumers not yet computerized. Many
observers had presumed that pure digital photography, which does not use silver in actually capturing the
image, would naturally lead to a decline in silver usage. However, just as the `paperless office` has
prompted a surge in paper use, digital photography is increasing the popularity of photography and of
traditional photographic demand. Much of the digital imaging business is actually a combination of
traditional imaging techniques and newer digital technologies. The images are captured on conventional
film, and much of the final output still uses either conventional photographic papers or other silver-coated
papers. In between, the images are digitized, edited, and manipulated. In sum, digital photography is not
necessarily a negative for silver. In fact, if one is objective about the impact of digital photography on
silver, one needs to calculate both the possible long-term losses in silver demand on the consumption
side of the market and the reduction in supply that would occur due to reductions in silver recovery from
spent photographic products, which accounts for around 85% of the 190 million ounces recycled each
year.


Myth 3:

Kodak has bought forward a year`s worth of silver, removing the world`s largest silver user as a
source of demand for the next year. Another report that circulated throughout the market had to do with
Eastman Kodak, one of the world`s largest silver users. In December 2000 a news item reported that
Kodak had hedged its silver needs through 2001. This was perceived by some observers as bearish for the
silver market, as these observers intimated that this source of demand for silver consequently would be
absent the silver market. Actually, this fact was nothing new and can be found in the company`s regular
quarterly filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Most of the company`s silver
requirements are purchased through annual supply contracts, as has been the case for decades. Similar
statements can be found in Kodak`s previous filings with the SEC.


Myth 4:

Berkshire Hathaway has sold its silver Berkshire Hathaway has found itself at the center of
intense public scrutiny since it announced in February 1998 that it had purchased 129.7 million ounces of
silver between July 1997 and January 1998. Since then, it has often been suggested that various periods of
silver price weakness have been directly related to sales by Berkshire Hathaway. First, one can look at
why Berkshire Hathaway bought silver in the first place. In the February 1998 press release
accompanying the announcement of the purchases, management stated that "the equilibrium between
supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price." Moreover, Berkshire
Hathaway has long hailed itself as a long-term investor, and does not seem likely to sell its recently
acquired assets on relatively minor price fluctuations. The average purchase price of Berkshire
Hathaway`s silver was less than $5.00. This, however, did not stop some observers from suggesting that
Berkshire Hathaway had sold some or all of its silver position. Offered as evidence of these sales was the
fact that a major refiner in Europe, which had been known to be storing silver for Berkshire Hathaway,
told its clients and others that the bulk of the silver being stored at its facilities had recently been moved.
Another piece of "evidence" was that Salomon Smith Barney recently delivered a net 1.8 million ounces
of silver into the December 2000 Comex delivery period. (Berkshire Hathaway often is viewed as the
major silver customer of Salomon.) These two factors do not necessarily mean that the silver has been
sold. It may have been moved in an attempt for greater opacity. [/b]


Myth 5:

Barrick hedging In the third quarter of last year, market discourse focused on the prospects of
current and future forward silver sales by producers. Barrick Gold was the target of much of the initial
speculation, as some market reports focused on the fact that Barrick reported in a regular quarterly report
that it had spot deferred silver sales contracts in place. As with Kodak, the existence of these positions
was not new; the fact that the market decided to focus on it at that time was. As of the end of 1999,
Barrick had entered into spot deferred contracts to deliver 14.3 million ounces of silver over the following
five years. As of the end of 2000, Barrick had 20.0 million ounces of spot deferred silver contracts at an
average price of $5.32 per ounce, for 2001 and beyond. These hedges were for future output at the Pascua
mine, development of which has been deferred, so further hedging is not expected until such time as gold
and silver prices rise to levels that lead the project back toward development.


Myth 6:

Other producers are selling forward The focus on hedging data from various producers and
manufacturers led some market observers to opine that other producers must also be selling large amounts
of silver, and that this was contributing to the weakness in silver prices. This phenomenon is not new, as
the gold market has constantly been plagued by suggestions that for-ward sales by producers have created
conditions of `over-supply. Forward sales do not work this way. When a producer sells silver or gold forward, it commits to
delivering a certain quantity of metal at some point in the future. At the time of the transaction, no extra
metal actually enters the physical market.


Myth 7:

Mexican output is rising sharply Refined silver production in Mexico rose 8.4% in 2000. Many
observers have trumpeted this as a cause of lower prices. Again, closer examination reveals the true
under-lying causes. Mexican output was reduced in 1999 when the Torreon lead, zinc, and silver refining
complex owned by Met-Mex Penoles was closed for a time due to a pollution problem. This reduced
output in 1999. In 2000 the refinery was back onstream. Not only did it operate fully processing 2000
mine production, but it produced additional amounts of refined silver from the back-logged 1999 mine
output.

Last year Mexican silver mine production is estimated to have totaled 90 million ounces. This was up
from 83 mil-lion ounces in 1999, but only slightly higher than the 86 million ounces produced in 1998.
The rate of increase was skewed in 2000 due to events at Torreon, which will not be repeated in 2001 and
beyond.


Silver Market Rumors are Not New

Rumours have confounded the precious metals markets for centuries, dating back to the Lost city of
Atlantis and the quest for El Dorado. There have been persistent rumours floated by bulls and bears alike.
In the late 1970s, after they had acquired the bulk of their silver position, the Hunt brothers began telling
everyone they knew what a great investment silver was. Others entered the market as buyers, with several
acquaintances of the Hunts even using the same floor traders as the Texans. It got to the point in late 1979
that the one agent for the Hunts only had to walk onto the Comex trading floor for the buying to send
silver prices higher.4


Myth 8:

Mine production is rising sharply worldwide. Total silver mine production rose at a 6.4% annual
rate from 1997 to 1998 as several new mines came onstream. The rate of increase slowed to 3.9% in 1999
and 4.6% in 2000. A few more new projects are slated to start in the next few years, but others have been
deferred or delayed. Barrick’s deferral of the Pascua project already has been mentioned. Other projects
in Argentina, Australia, Russia, and elsewhere have been delayed or scaled back. A few existing
operating mines, particularly in North America, are at risk of being closed. Mine production will not rise
as fast as had been expected, and in fact is projected to fall over the next couple of years.

Not All Rumours Are Bearish

The preponderance of the rumours floated in the silver market in recent months have been bearish, often
circulated with the apparent intention of scaring investors and others into selling, or at least not buying,
silver. There have been a few rumours floating around the silver market that have been primarily bullish,
however.


Myth 9:

Large secret silver stockpiles. Perhaps the most interesting rumour is one that could be called
either bullish or bearish, depending on one`s interpretation of it. This is the rumour that there are large
secret stockpiles of silver held by wealthy investors. This could be interpreted as being bullish for silver
prices, if one concluded that there are several savvy investors who are bullish on silver and, like Berkshire
Hathaway, have purchased physical silver to profit from an inevitable price rise. It could be bearishly
read, however, in that it would suggest there still is that much more silver around that ultimately can be
sold to fabricators to meet industrial demand. Evidence suggest that such positions, purchased in the
middle 1980s and middle 1990s, have been liquidated,
however.


Myth 10:

The U.S. Mint will have to buy silver in the market for its coins soon One bullish story
circulating the silver market is that the U.S. government, which uses silver from its old National Defence
Stockpile in coins produced by the U.S. Mint, is almost out of silver. The stocks used in this program are
running down, but there still are between two and six years of silver available to meet the ongoing needs
of the U.S. Eagle silver coin program. From the 1880s until the 1960s, the U.S. Treasury was required by
a series of laws to be the buyer or supplier of last resort in the silver market. The U.S. Treasury amassed
the largest trove of silver ever assembled, peaking at 2.1 billion ounces in 1959. These stocks were drawn
down rapidly in the 1960s, and by 1971 were down to 170 mil-lion ounces. In 1967, the reserves were
transferred to the National Defence Stockpile. The legislation that created the Silver Eagle bullion coin
program in 1986 directed the Mint to use stockpile silver until that silver was gone. These metal
inventories, stored by the Mint for the Defence Logistic Agency, have been drawn down since 1986, and
now total around 20-25 mil-lion ounces. With coin sales about 9 million ounces per year, that still
represents at least two years` worth of silver.

The silver market is populated by many more rumours. It is illegal in most places to knowingly distribute
misleading information about companies, but no such laws protect the commodities markets. It has
always been this way. No doubt it will continue to be this way. It may seem foolish to try to fight such
falsehoods, but one of the basic tenets on which CPM Group was built is that access to a superior flow of
market intelligent allows clients to beat the market. Empirical evidence since our group was started in
1971 suggests this is true.

[ThaiGuru]

@konradi

Danke für Dein interessantes Posting zum Silber.

Zum Bericht von CPM vom 26.5.02!

Dieser darin aufgeführte sogenannte Mythos (Myth 10), ist zwischenzeitlich eine Tatsache geworden. Busch hat auch bereits ein neues Gesetz unterzeichnet, dass den Kauf von physischem Silber vorsieht. Das Gesetz ist bereits in Kraft, (habe früher darüber bereits ein Posting gemacht) jedoch hört man überhaupt nichts konkretes zu den Mengen an Silber die seitdem am Markt von der Mint gekauft wurden, und auch nichts über zukünftigen Mengen die von der US Mint zukünftig noch gekauft werden müssen, um ihre Silberadler weiterhin prägen zu können. Man kann dazu nur Schätzungen vernehmen. Was man aber genau weiss, sind die Mengen an "Silver Eagles" die jeweils jeden Monat/Jahr geprägt werden.

Dies geprägten, und verkauften Stückzahlen steigen gerade zur Zeit immer noch stark an. (Habe auch diese Tatsache, durch ein früheres Posting belegen können)

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[sebastianus]

@ThaiGuru @Konradi

World silver coin fabrication rose by a modest 2.6 per cent in 2002, as higher North American demand more than compensated for lower minting in Europe. Total coin and medal fabrication in the United States rose to a record level of 14.2 Moz. Gains were also posted in Canada, Austria, and China.

Der Trend, mehr Silbermünzen zu prägen, gilt sicherlich weltweit. Und jetzt kommen grosse Mengen Silber Dirham der Islamic Mint in Malaysia dazu !

Grüsse - Sebastianus

[ThaiGuru]

Zwei wichtige Gründe, jetzt physisches Silber zu kaufen!

[ThaiGuru]

Es gibt hoffentlich niemand der glaubt die letzten beiden Gründe um physisches Silber zu kaufen, seinen die einzigen Gründe gewesen?

Hier ein 3. sehr wichtiger Grund!

[ThaiGuru]

Drei wichtige Gründe die für den Kauf von echtem Silber sprechen, nicht etwa Papier Silber, kennen wir jetzt schon.

Das sind aber noch längst nicht alle Gründe.

Hier noch zwei weitere wichtige Gründe!

[ThaiGuru]

Wem die vorhergegangenen Gründe, die für eine Engagement in echtes Silber sprechen, immer noch nicht ausreichen, noch ein weiterer Grund!

[ThaiGuru]

Wer glaubt, dass Silber trotz aller fundamentalen Gründe, nicht so vielverspechend aussieht wie andere Anlageformen, der sollte sich diese beiden Langzeits Preis Chart von Silber einmal etwas genauer anschauen!

[ThaiGuru]

Wem die Gründe die für den Erwrb von Silber als Langzeit Anlage Instrument sprechen, trotz allen von mir in den vorangegangenen Postings aufgezeigten Gründen immer noch nicht genügen, der sollte sich am besten die zu den Charts dazugehörenden Texte, mit vielen weiteren Gründen, die für den Kauf von physischem Silber sprechen ansehen!



http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/ZihlmannInvest/1058196828.php



Link: http://www.silverinstitute.org

SILVER: STILL A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY SILVER

http://news.goldseek.com/ZihlmannInvest/1058196828.php