Was haltet ihr von Norilsk Nickel ? (Seite 147)

[Rastelly]

Hallo humm und alle N N`ler,

alle Analysten sind begeistert, antürlich, diese wollen etwas verkaufen.

Ich vertrauen diesen Herren, nur unter Vorbehalt!
Humm sagte :Ich bleibe dabei, bin den Analysten gegenüber aber ziemlich skeptisch.
Banker kaufen und verkaufen zu anderen KONDITIONEN!
Die Umsätze in Londen sprechen diese Spache.

Analysten gehören zu Banken und diese Banken arbeiten mitanderen Gebühren.


Zitat Anfang: Folgender Inhalt kann vielleicht etwas Aufhellung in die Dunkelheit des Geschehen bringen.

Folgende Schriftsatz kamm am Wochenende:

Stattdessen residiert in Moskau unangefochten Präsident Vladimir Putin,
der zuhause weiter mit dem eisernen Besen kehrt:

Am Mittwoch durchsuchten Fahnder Geschäftsräume von
Jukos in Amsterdam und in Moskau.

Grund für die neuerliche Razzia gegen den zerschlagenen Ölkonzern: der Verdacht der Geldwäsche.

Die Börse zuckte nach dem neuerlichen Angriff des Staates auf die Wirtschaft zusammen;
vor allem ausländische Fonds nutzten ferner Kommentare der Federal Reserve in den USA und erneut das Thema Öl zum Ausstieg:
........................... Der RTS gab kräftig nach.

Dennoch bleibt Russland für die Anleger langfristig weiter sehr interessant
– die voran gegangene Rekordjagd, die den Leitindex RTS auf über 1.000 Zähler gehievt hatte, dürfte weiter gehen.
Zitat Ende.


Einen schönen Sonntag und eine noch bessere (natürlich positive) Woche wünscht R S.

[danatbank]

@humm

Was hältst Du von Southern Peru Copper (SPC) im Bewertungsvergleich zu Nornickel?

-Umsatzanteil 60% Kupfer, 30% Molybdän, 3,5% Silber, 3,5% Zink
-nach Codelco weltgrößte Kupferreserven (10% der Weltreserven, 50 Mio. t)
-90 Jahre Reservenreichweite
-KGV 6 basiert auf trailing earnings
-im zweiten Halbjahr avisierte Produktionssteigerung um 15%
-stark anziehende Kupfer- und Molybdänpreise sollten KGV weiter sinken lassen
-Steuerquote von lediglich 18%
-Produktionskosten liegen im Branchenvergleich im unteren Quartil
-Hauptaktionäre Grupo Mexico (75,1%), Phelps Dodge (8,7%)
-Hälfte der Gewinne werden ausgeschüttet (ca. 10% Dividendenrendite)

[humm]

Bleibt nur noch die Frage – wenn alle Analysten soooo begeistert sind – wieso krachte der Kurs so zusammen?

Ich bleibe dabei, bin den Analysten gegenüber aber ziemlich skeptisch.

Der Hauptgrund warum ich positiv gegenüber NN bin, ist meine Erwartung dass wir eine saftige Inflation vor uns haben.
Silber ist m. E. eine der besten Investitionen zurzeit.

[brainsplit]

gerade gelesen:
Washington (Platts)--6Oct2005
Merrill Lynch has increased its fiscal 2005 earnings per share estimate for Russia`s Norilsk Nickel to $10.60/share from $9.98/share previously on the back of stronger-than-expected commodity prices, particularly of copper and gold, it said Thursday. Merrill Lynch also has increased its earnings forecasts for fiscal 2006 to $9.12/share from $8.60/share.
The increased estimates are supported by "excellent" fiscal first-half 2005 results. Norilsk Nickel on Thursday posted net profit for the first half of $974-mil, up 12% from first-half 2004, against a 5% rise on-year in overall metal sales revenues to $3.4-bil. EPS were up 14% to $4.80/share, and costs were down 4%, said Merrill Lynch.
In the first half, Norilsk "once again proved that it is successfully containing its costs, with cost of sales decreasing by 4% and cash operating costs only increasing by 2%, down 3% in local currency," said Merrill Lynch.
"Most importantly, cash costs at the group`s operations excluding Stillwater mining in the USA and the gold operations of Polyus were down 1% in US and down 4% in local currency. This is a remarkable performance in the face of rising input costs globally and high Russian inflation."
"We believe Norilsk`s share price will be well supported leading up to the unbundling of its gold assets as investors assess the potential value to be unlocked in the gold assets," said Merrill Lynch. Other than robust
commodity prices, the key driver to Norilsk`s share price performance has been the upcoming unbundling of its gold assets. "This should unlock significant value as the gold assets are re-rated more in line with global peers," it said.
Merrill Lynch said it believed nickel prices would continue to range trade between $6-7/lb for the next two years "and be characterised by extreme weekly volatility. We do note that consumers (such as stainless steel producers) are unhappy with the high prices and the extreme volatility, and there appears to be calls for the return of producer pricing. We have therefore kept our nickel price forecasts unchanged, but note that there is on going supply tightness, historically low inventories, and the limited number of material supply additions to nickel until 2008," it said.
Merrill Lynch is forecasting a nickel price of $7/lb (versus consensus of $6.89/lb) for 2005, $6.50/lb versus consensus of $5.96/lb) for 2006 and
$5.50/lb (versus consensus of $4.89/lb) for 2007. Merrill Lynch expects a nickel deficit of about 34,800mt this year and a decreasing deficit over the next two years. "Our demand forecast shows subdued global growth of 3.9% in
2005, rising to 4% in 2006 and 3.6% in 2007. We assume Chinese nickel consumption only grows 6-7%/year over next 3 years," said Merrill Lynch.
On copper, it expects a copper price of $1.57/lb in 2005, $1.25 in 2006, $1.10 in 2007 and 90cts in 2008. "The key to copper prices is the long awaited increase in refined capacity, which seems to be taking longer to eventuate than most thought plus ongoing mine strikes typical of top of the cycle," it said.
Merrill Lynch added that with the tightness in the market lasting longer
than it had previously estimated, it had revised its supply/demand outlook for refined copper and now expects to see a minor deficit in 2005 of 11,000mt. It previously expected a 14,000mt surplus. It has also increased its expectations for surpluses in 2006 to 323,000mt (previously 210,000mt surplus) and 2007 to 373,000mt (previously 213,000mt).

[wieni]

Nächste Kaufempfehlung

Norilsk Nickel "buy"

07.10.2005
Citigroup

Die Analysten von Citigroup stufen die Aktie von Norilsk Nickel (ISIN US46626D1081 / WKN 676683) unverändert mit "buy" ein und bestätigen das Kursziel von 83,20 USD.

Die Halbjahreszahlen von Norilsk Nickel seien gemischt ausgefallen. Auf der einen Seite sei das Umsatzwachstum auf Grund von niedriger als erwarteten Metallverkäufen und eines höheren Einflusses von Palladium hinter den Schätzungen zurückgeblieben. Auf der anderen Seite würden die Kosten stehen, die trotz Inflationsdruck anscheinend gut unter Kontrolle seien.

Nach Ansicht der Analysten dürfte sich der Volumenabsatz im zweiten Halbjahr 2005 wieder erholen, insbesondere bei Kupfer, wo sich jüngst eine Preisstärke eingestellt habe.

Vor diesem Hintergrund bleiben die Analysten von Citigroup bei ihrer Kaufempfehlung für die Aktie von Norilsk Nickel.

[humm]

07.10.2005 15:07
MMC Norilsk Nickel: buy (ATON Capital Group)
Die Analysten von ATON Capital Group stufen die Aktie von Norilsk Nickel (Nachrichten) (ISIN US46626D1081/ WKN 676683) unverändert mit "buy" ein und sehen das Kursziel bei 110 USD.

Die Halbjahreszahlen von Norilsk Nickel hätten gezeigt, dass sich das Unternehmen auf einem guten Weg befinde die Erwartungen für das Gesamtjahr zu erfüllen. Die operative Marge der ersten sechs Monate des Geschäftsjahres würde mit 41,7% nahe der Prognose von 39,1% für das Gesamtjahr liegen. Die Nettogewinnmarge habe sich aber aufgrund einer höheren Steuerbelastung etwas abgeschwächt.

Nachdem das Gold-Volumen um 16,7% nachgegeben habe, weise das Management auf ein stärkeres zweites Halbjahr hin, was die Performance des ersten Halbjahres ausgleichen sollte.

Insgesamt würden die Analysten die Ergebnisse für die Kursentwicklung neutral werten. Der anstehende Spin-off von Polyus stelle einen größeren Impuls für die Aktie dar.

Vor diesem Hintergrund bleiben die Analysten von ATON Capital Group bei ihrer Empfehlung die Aktie von Norilsk Nickel zu kaufen.
Analyse-Datum: 07.10.2005

[humm]

07/10/2005
13:39 Nornickel: the market to be firm.

Norilsky Nickel is assumed to be firm during 2005-2006, as it was informed. The demand will be supported by the Asian market, Chinese in

particular.
None serious fluctuations in the prices are expected.

"AK&M", 07.10.2005 08:24

[Steigerwälder]

EPS 4,80 im HJ 1 sind ja nicht so schlecht. Könnten 10 $ fürs Gesamtjahr werden.

[humm]

News Today
Norilsk shareholders approve gold arm spin off
The shareholders of the world`s top nickel producer Norilsk Nickel have voted in favour of spinning off the company`s gold mining unit, Polyus, into a separate company, Norilsk said yesterday.

"Today we can say the shareholders have actually approved it (the spin-off), but the registrar is still calculating the votes and we expect to announce the (final) results of the voting tomorrow," Deputy General Director Denis Morozov said during a conference call.

The new company, Polyus Gold, to be created on March 3 2006 and listed in Russia and abroad, will include Norilsk`s Polyus gold subsidiary and its 20 percent stake in South Africa`s Gold Fields, the world`s fourth largest gold producer.

Holders of Norilsk shares or American Depositary Receipts at January 1 2006 will be entitled to Polyus Gold shares, proportional to their shareholding in Norilsk. Dissenting and non-voting shareholders can sell their shares for 1,855 roubles each.

On February 17, shareholders will vote on reducing Norilsk`s charter capital to cancel the redeemed shares, along with 5,8% of Norilsk that the company bought back for $750-million earlier this year.

In May 2006 a level 1 ADR programme will be established and holders of Norilsk`s ADRs will receive Polyus Gold ADRs.

Alexei Osenmuk, Polyus` vice-president for economy and finance, told the conference call he expected output of 35-37 tons of gold this year, including newly acquired assets.

Earlier on Thursday, Polyus President Yevgeni Ivanov said the company aimed to keep output at last year`s level of 34 tons of gold.

Polyus is aggressively snapping up the country`s gold deposits and intends to triple output by 2010/2011.

In a separate statement Polyus said its net profit fell to $35,47-million in the first half of the year from $46,59-million in the same period of last year, based on International Financial Reporting Standards .

Revenues declined to $169,38-million from $186,476-million, a result of lower gold content in processed ores and the fact that a 17 400-t shipment to Credit Suisse bank arrived after the end of the period, Osenmuk said.

Norilsk`s main shareholders are chief executive Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Potanin, the president of parent company Interros, an industrial and banking group.

They jointly owned more than half of Norilsk`s shares, but each is believed to have sold shares in the buyback.

[humm]

Russia`s Norilsk first-half revenue climbs
Thu Oct 6, 2005 12:34 PM GMT162
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MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia`s metals giant Norilsk Nickel said on Thursday its revenues rose in the first half of this year as high metals prices offset a decline in some metals sales volumes.

"The main reason for revenue growth was the growth of the average realised prices of refined metals sold, except for palladium," Norilsk said in a statement.

The world`s No.1 nickel and palladium producer said its revenues from metals sales calculated to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) rose by five percent to $3.44 billion from $3.29 billion.

Net profit rose by 11.6 percent to $974 million from $873 million, while earnings per share rose to $4.80 from $4.22.

Nickel sales declined slightly to 119,000 tonnes from 121,000 tonnes, copper sales to 189,000 tonnes compared to 191,000 tonnes in the first six months of 2004, while gold sales fell to 440,000 ounces compared to 528,000 ounces.

Norilsk`s palladium sales were 1.94 million ounces, and platinum 437,000 ounces in the first half of this year, the company said.

Norilsk provided first half output and sales figures for palladium and platinum for the first time but no comparative figures, as platinum group metals data had been previously a state secret.

Average export nickel prices rose by 11 percent year-on-year, while copper prices rose 25 percent. Revenues from nickel sales therefore rose by eight percent to $1.84 billion and copper sales by 22 percent to $627 million.

Palladium sales revenues decreased by 18 percent to $407 million due to a price decline, while a rise in the price of sister metal platinum raised revenues by six percent to $377 million.

Revenues from gold sales decreased by 10 percent to $189 million mainly due to a decrease in shipping volumes by 17 percent, which was partly offset by a rise in the average selling price by seven percent.

A fall in gold sales volume was partly related to the start of direct export sales in the first half, of which up to 17,400 ounces were on its way to the customer by the end of June, and a decrease in output due to lower metal contents in the ore.

Norilsk shares were down by 4.68 percent to $75.3 at 0950 GMT on the Moscow RTS exchange in line with the general decline of the market.


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