shopnow Kurs in Amerika 14$---Kursziel 50$!!!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[daxworld]

einige analysten empfahlen heute shopnow.com. Aber der kurs fällt in amerika..heute wo fast alles steigt. Was sehen da die Anal..ysten wie J.P.Morgan, advanced E. etc. kann man da als einsteiger noch hoffen? daxworld

[franky]

Folgende Kurzform der JP Morgan-Analyse, die das Kursziel 50$ nennt, habe ich im ragingbull.com gefunden:


February 18, 2000

J.P. MORGAN SECURITIES INC. - EQUITY RESEARCH

RAIMUNDO ARCHIBOLD (1-212) 648-6231, [e-mail]
John Walsh (1-212) 648-8028, [e-mail]
Tien-tsin Huang (1-212) 648-3191, [e-mail]

ShopNow.com (BUY)

INITIATING WITH A BUY; $50 PRICE TARGET; SINGLE SOURCE SOLUTION FOR THE E-MERCHANT

Earnings Per Share P/E
SPNW 52-Wk ----------------------- --------- MkCap
2/17 Rge 12/99A 12/00E 12/01E 1Q/00E 1Q/99A 12/00E 12/01E Yld $MM)
---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ --- ----
$13.69 $26-11 $2.09 $(1.47) $(0.83) $(0.46) $(0.36) NM NM 0.0% 707

ShopNow will be among the presenting companies at J.P. Morgan`s
Electronic Commerce and IT Services conference May 17-19, 2000, at Naples,
Florida. Please contact your JPMS salesperson for more information. Our
reports and models are available on the JPMS morganWISE website.

We are initiating coverage on ShopNow with a Buy rating and $50 price
target. Please see our initiating coverage report titled ShopNow: The
Single Source Solution for the E-Merchant published today for more
details.

ShopNow provides a suite of e-commerce enabling services offering
e-merchants an end-to-end solution for establishing a business and
conducting transactions on the Internet. The solution set comprises web
site development, hosting, and a full array of transaction, merchandising,
and marketing services. We believe ShopNow is the only vendor offering an
extensive suite of such services that effectively bridges the gap between
back-office services and front-end customer acquisition and customer
service.

ShopNow`s market opportunity is very large and is expanding rapidly.
Its merchant services group participates in the $150 billion e-commerce
enabling market with a comprehensive suite of services. With the
opportunity to up-sell these services to a base of more than 550,000
businesses participating in its various networks, ShopNow is well
positioned to become a leader in the e-commerce transaction services
market. We expect the company to extend this model overseas, increasing
the value of its network with investments beginning in 2000 and a
meaningful revenue impact in 2001.

The company`s b2bNow.com portal seeks to facilitate transactions in
the business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce market, which is expected to
approach $3.9 trillion worldwide in 2003 from $145 billion today. Until
now the company`s focus was on business-to-consumer (B2C) merchants; now,
with the B2B portal in place, ShopNow can participate in the burgeoning
B2B marketplace. The recently announced alliance with TRADEX to integrate
exchange technology should prove to be an attractive source of new
business for ShopNow and broaden its service offering to its existing
merchant base.

The ShopNow network brings Internet merchants and consumers together
in the $27 billion worldwide e-commerce retail market by providing
advertising and merchandising services to Internet merchants. As one of
the most frequently visited shopping sites on the Internet, the
ShopNow.com portal is a powerful lure for new merchant participants and an
important source of new clients for its merchant services unit. The
company`s syndication model allows merchant clients to reap the benefits
of superdistribution on the Internet.

We rate ShopNow a Buy with a 12-month price target of $50. We arrive
at our target by using a discounted earnings analysis that projects 2005
net earnings at $137 million and assumes a 20% discount rate and a forward
P/E of 50 times. Our revenue multiple analysis produces a similar target,
assuming a multiple of 17 times our 2001 revenue estimate of $164 million;
we consider that revenue multiple target conservative in view of its
discount to the average for a peer group of e-commerce enablers.

Earnings Outlook
We estimate that ShopNow will post revenue of $86 million for 2000 and
$164 million for 2001 with respective net earnings per share losses of
$1.47 and $0.83, respectively. Our 2000 revenue estimate assumes 218%
annual growth driven by more than 50% sequential-quarter gains from the
ShopNow Network and a strong ramp-up in merchant services. We believe our
growth assumptions are supported by the large e-commerce up-sell
opportunities created by ShopNow`s installed base of more than 550,000
businesses and merchants.

We project ShopNow will post its highest nominal operating loss in the
first quarter of 2000, with sequentially declining losses to the point of
profitability in the second quarter of 2002. Once profitable, we expect
the gross margin to be in excess of 55%, and we believe long-term
operating margin will top 20%. Over the longer term, we expect B2B portal
and transaction revenue to be the main sources of growth.

Table 1 summarizes our annual earnings projections through 2005.

Table 1: Summary Earnings Model
($ in millions, except per share data)
1999 2000E 2001E 2002E 2003E 2004E 2005E
Total Revenues 27.0 86.2 164.1 270.5 419.4 576.9 793.9
Total Cost of Goods 16.1 45.2 77.2 119.4 177.1 229.8 298.3
Sold
Gross Margin 10.9 41.0 86.8 151.0 242.3 347.1 495.6
Total Operating 67.5 123.2 135.9 148.1 181.2 229.9 295.2
Expenses
Operating Income (56.6) (82.2) (49.1) 2.9 61.1 117.2 200.5
Net Income (53.8) (76.8) (45.7) 5.3 64.6 121.9 136.9

EPS - diluted ($2.09) ($1.47) ($0.83) $0.09 $1.08 $2.00 $2.20

Gross Margin (%) 40% 48% 53% 56% 58% 60% 62%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. estimates.
Note: Net income and EPS exclude stock-based compensation and
amortization.

(J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. acted as co- or lead-manager in an offering
of securities for this company within the past three years. )