Telstra Verdopplungskandidat? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Prognoserich]

Hier könnte sich bald was tun:


Telstra to post H1 net profit increase but focus on mobiles
Analysts expect Telstra Corp Ltd to deliver a sizeable net profit increase for the first half of 2003/04 but questions remain over its ability to fight off the competitive onslaught from its rivals.
Analysts polled by AAP have forecast Australia`s largest telco to record a net profit of between $2.025 billion and $2.22 billion when the interim results are released on Thursday,, compared with $1.184 billion in the previous first half.
Last year`s underlying half year result was $2.02 billion but this excluded the $965 million writedown of its Asian cable infrastructure joint venture Reach.
On Thursday analysts will be eyeing Telstra`s latest results to see how its mobile business is stacking up against main challenger Optus and will also be seeking an update on its cost reduction program.
Optus` strong first half is expected to have taken a toll on Telstra`s ability to post a decent lift in revenue.
Market forecasts for Telstra`s revenue growth sit around one per cent - a far cry from the 14 per cent recorded by Optus last week.
"Solid growth in subscribers and revenue growth from Telstra`s competitors will enhance the focus on the mobile division," UBS Warburg analyst Tony Wilson said.
But he said Telstra`s total market share was expected to have remained stable at 45 per cent, with the subscriber base more heavily weighted towards postpaid customers.
Commonwealth Securities analyst Graeme Woodbridge said he expected Telstra to report a two to three per cent increase in mobile subscribers over the December quarter, compared to Optus` near six per cent increase and Vodafone`s two per cent increase.
"That would be further evidence that Telstra`s not getting as much growth as Optus and is losing its share of customers to Optus," Mr Woodbridge said.
"The problem Telstra`s got is, if what drives Optus` subscriber numbers is just offering lower prices and better deals .. Telstra will have difficult matching that.
"We think they will continue to lose market share over the next six to 12 months."
Macquarie Equities analyst Tim Smart said with sales revenue likely to be up by only around one per cent, the main driver of profit growth for the half year would be the telco`s cost cutting initiatives.
Telstra announced last August plans to cut business costs by between $600 and $800 million over two to three years.
UBS Warburg has forecast minimal operational cost savings of $180 million from lower capacity payments to Reach.
"But we believe the market will be looking for some solid commentary on costs for the second half of the year," Mr Wilson said.
Merrill Lynch analyst Patrick Russel said given the expected low revenue growth, the market would also be looking out for Telstra`s capital management plans in terms of dividends or a share buyback.
"We`ve got a dividend forecast, an ordinary dividend of 13 cents a share which is up eight per cent, but they`ve got potential to do more than that," he said.
"There could be the possibilty (of a special dividend)."
In the first half last year, Telstra declared an interim dividend of 12 cents and also rewarded shareholders with a special dividend of three cents per share.
By Ruth Peters

[Prognoserich]

Der australische Telekommunikations-Konzern Telstra konnte in den sechs Monaten zum 31. Dezember seinen Nettogewinn fast verdoppeln, auch nachdem Sonderbelastungen aus Abschreibungen auf die Beteiligung an dem Hongkonger Kabel-Joint Venture Reach das Ergebnis belasteten.

Der Nettogewinn wuchs um 93.7% auf A$2.29 Milliarden ($1.8 Milliarden) oder 17.9 cents je Aktie, nach A$1.18 Milliarden oder 9.2 cents im Vorjahr. Der Umsatz fiel um 4.7% auf A$10.8 Milliarden. Im ersten Halbjahr erwarten Analysten bei Telstra einen Gewinn von A$2.173 Milliarden. Telstra bestätigte zudem die Guidance für 2004.

© BörseGo


Ich denke die 4,70 AUD-Marke wird halten und die Aktie dreht bald nach oben. So gesehen eine spekulative Einstiegschance.

[FujiPyjama]

Sieht aber gar nicht gut aus:


Telstra shareholders, who watched their shares continue to slump on Friday after a weak first-half profit result, may be facing more bad news from the telecom`s disastrous Asian foray.
Along with the result, Telstra gave its clearest signal yet that its struggling joint venture with Pacific Century CyberWorks (PCCW), Reach, may need another handout.
The telecom said business plans at Reach were "under review".
Broker ABN Amro said this suggested "a renegotiation with PCCW and the banking syndicate in the next two to three months".
It said this could trigger another capital injection of up to $US300 million ($380 million) into the Hong Kong-based undersea cable venture, whose network service prices have continued to plummet.
Singapore Telecommunications has already set the precedent, bailing out its equivalent business, C2C, last month with a $US225 million cash injection.
The news comes just over a year after Telstra wrote off its investment in Reach at a cost of $965 million, sending its share price plunging below $4.
More importantly for Telstra`s chief executive, Ziggy Switkowski, it comes nine months after he promised that the venture would be self-funding after a bruising renegotiation of Reach`s debt.

That promise is now looking shaky after Reach plunged to a $113 million loss for the six months to December 31. And the company may be starting to feel the pressure.
Sources at Reach told the Herald that more than 100 people lost their jobs in November and December last year, out of a workforce of around 700. This follows 250 redundancies last May as part of the restructure after the renegotiation of its $US1.5 billion debt.
Reach refused to comment on any job losses but referred to an earlier statement in which it said one of the realities of lowering costs "is that some positions become redundant".
Ironically, Reach`s woes proved to be the saving grace for Telstra`s first-half results last week.
Telstra relied on lower pricing from Reach for the vast majority of its cost savings - which helped it engineer an increase in underlying earnings despite the decline in revenues. But the tough conditions for Reach are expected to continue.
"The problem is that the market is still facing a glut in capacity," said Lloyd Ong, from Barclays Capital Singapore.
"[The network operators] need to take some capacity off the market, but we haven`t seen that."
Another worry is that PCCW could decide the bail-out is not worth the trouble, leaving Telstra with Reach and debts that still total $US1.2 billion.
The issue does not come at a good time for Telstra, with Dr Switkowski already struggling to convince the market he can return the carrier to strong growth.
He told Channel Nine`s Business Sunday yesterday that Telstra would return to 4 per cent domestic growth in 2006 and complete its $800 million in cost savings at the same time.
"When I go out into the market and put a marker in the sand I am absolutely accountable for that," Dr Switkowski said.
Telstra demonstrated its new focus yesterday, unveiling aggressive new broadband pricing which includes a $29.95 a month entry level product that rivals some of its dial-up internet plans.
But Goldman Sachs JBWere cast doubt on Telstra`s goals, noting that in the first half it spent $274 million chasing market share while cutting $174 million in costs.
"In other words, the cost reduction targets will not be realised, given Telstra is chasing revenue growth," the firm said.
One comfort for Telstra investors is that the company`s strong cash flow and dividend yields of around 5.5 per cent should protect it from any major price weakness.
Most analysts still value the shares at about $5, comfortably above current levels, although Citigroup Smith Barney said they could trade at $4.50 to $4.75 in the near term.


Einstieg erst bei 4 $


Fujipyjama

[Prognoserich]

Boeden bei 4,70 wird halten denke ich.

Telstra hat übrigens grünes Licht für eine mehrheitliche Übernahme von den Zeitungen Sydney Morning Herald und The Age bekommen. Volumen: 3,5 Mrd. AUD.

[Prognoserich]

gut sieht der Chart allerdings wirklich nicht aus...

[Prognoserich]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[FujiPyjama]

Finger weg von Telstra.



Fujipyjama

[FujiPyjama]

morgen entscheidet der australische Senat über die vollständige Privatisierung von Telstra. Das könnte sich negativ auf den Aktienkurs auswirken...


Fujipyjama

[Prognoserich]

Mobile carriers say any cut in fees favours Telstra
By Colin Kruger
March 27, 2004

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The consumer watchdog has recommended a drastic cut to mobile phone charges which account for around half the cost of the average call, but some vendors have already complained that the move will benefit Telstra more than consumers.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission issued the draft decision on Friday, recommending mobile termination costs be cut from 21c per minute to 12c by January 2007.

The recommendation ensures there will be "a closer correlation between the price and the cost of delivering the mobile termination service", said ACCC commissioner Ed Willett.

The termination cost is what the mobile carriers charge each other for allowing rivals` customers to speak to mobile users on their mobile network.

The charges are passed on to consumers in the retail prices they pay for calls from fixed line to mobile phones, as well as mobile to mobile calls.

But the move will not affect all vendors equally. The big losers are expected to be mobile-centric businesses such as Optus and Vodafone, which are estimated to receive up to 15 per cent of their revenues from this source, according to CommSec.


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The director of regulatory affairs at Optus, Paul Fletcher, criticised the report, calling the draft decision "flawed". Optus disputes the ACCC`s estimation of mobile termination costs and said there is nothing in place to ensure Telstra passes on the lower costs to fixed line customers instead of pocketing the savings.

CommSec analyst Graeme Woodbridge said that if fixed to mobile costs are left to normal market forces, only half to three-quarters of the cost savings will be passed on to Telstra customers.

The Competitive Carrier`s Coalition (CCC), which largely represents second-tier telecoms, was in favour of the changes but said that the timeframe for its implementation was too long.

By the time the recommended cuts were introduced in 2007 "consumers would pay in the order of $1.6 billion too much", it said.

Interested parties can respond to the ACCC`s draft decision before April 30. A final decision is expected in June.

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[Prognoserich]

11.06.2004 / 11:54
Telstra erreicht sein Ziel mit Breitband-Internet-Kunden früher als erwartet

Telstra Corp. (WKN: 909947)ie größte Telefongesellschaft Australiens Telstra sagte, ihr Ziel eine Million Australier als Breitbandkunden zu erreichen wird 6 Monate früher als erwartet erreicht werden.
Das Unternehmen hat diese Woche bereits den 750.000sten Kunden angenommen und wird die Million voraussichtlich Ende Juni 2005 überschreiten.

Die Nachfrage sei in den letzten fünf Monaten um 46 Prozent gestiegen. Dies sei auf die Popularität der herabgesetzten Preise zurückzuführen.(mha)

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[Prognoserich]

Not all of Telstra should go
By Terry McCrann
25jul04

TELSTRA. A farmer who - contrary to most in the bush - wants it fully sold, becomes chairman.

He`ll being working with a rocket scientist-turned-entrepreneur-turned-rocket scientist as CEO. What does it all mean?
Does it mean we`ll wake up one day and find Telstra`s been sold? That every farm will have its very own fibre-optic cable? Maybe a ring of satellites, as Telstra joins the space race?

Yes, those statements are ridiculous - except to some, who don`t actually understand the way the law works.

But they`re intended to make the point with emphasis. Yes, farmer (and industrial relations reformer) Don McGauchie is Telstra chairman - but nothing`s really changed!









He doesn`t have some magic wand that can have Telstra privatised. Just because he`s a farmer, doesn`t mean everyone in the bush are suddenly going to become campaigners for privatisation.

Nor does it mean that, as a business, Telstra is going to take some dramatic 180-degree turn. As ACCC boss Graeme Samuel has been arguing recently,

Telstra is absolutely consistent: it behaves like the monopoly it is.

Two fundamental points need to be understood. Yes, a company`s chairman - especially in such a pivotal company as Telstra - plays an important role, in that business and more broadly.

But at the end of the day - as was demonstrated by the fall of his predecessor, Bob Mansfield - he really is only the first among equals. One director of 10. They elected him, so they can sack him.

The second point is that, as one of those 10, McGauchie has already signed off on an "old-is-new again" strategy for Telstra.

Telstra has said it`s going to stop trying to buy businesses and go back to being the national telecom - invest what it needs to and give the rest back to shareholders, half to the public and half to the Federal Government.

So, McGauchie doesn`t have some new agenda he wants to spring on Telstra and the rest of us. If he did, Mansfield-style, he`d be turfed, Mansfield-style.

This leads to a very important point. He was appointed by his fellow directors, not by John Howard. Not even via a friendly suggestion.

Yes, the board did not pick someone who would obviously be unacceptable to the prime minister, like, say, Paul Keating - and they did run McGauchie past the PM.

But the key decision was by the board, to appoint one of their own - not to consider one of two external names suggested (again, not by Howard, but by an executive search process) - essentially for board continuity.

All this applies crucially to the new Telstra strategy. That was not imposed Keating-style, to harvest a few billion dollars for the Federal Budget, but by a board doing what a board does, if it`s functioning properly - working out with the CEO and his management team.

Part of the strategy, if you want to put it that way, is absolute unanimity of the board in favour of privatisation. So, there`s nothing special about McGauchie`s endorsement.

The board would also be unanimous about privatising Telstra as it now is: broadly, an across-the board monopoly, except for mobiles, because that`s their job - what`s best for Telstra.

What`s best for Australia, and for Australians individually, is Parliament`s job. So, the politicians should have moved on from the silly and utterly sterile debate about privatisation - that should be a given - to how it should be done.

Maybe only Telstra, the business, should be privatised, with Telstra`s infrastructure sold separately and kept separate, or taken fully back into public ownership.

Yet, once again, we`ve had an explosion of very silly media focus on something really quite incidental. The big story is ignored.

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