warum sollte der Silberpreis steigen.......? - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[reindste]

Hallo Gold- und Silbergräber,
ich sehe zwar das auch Silberwerte (wie Coeur d´Alene z.B.) abgehen wie Schmidts Katze, und nicht nur Goldwerte, aber verstehen tu ich`s nicht da doch gesagt wird das der Großteil der jährlichen Fördermengen für die Fotoindustrie verarbeuítet wird und diese doch wohl offensichtlich nicht mehr derartige Mengen braucht in der Zukunft....!?
Wenn das nicht der bestimmende Faktor ist?
Bitte um antworten.....

[einmalpleitereicht]

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Here is most of the Silver "story" below with many web site references. It encompasses the use of logic and common sense to analyze the factors which help determine the value of Silver. Note that all guestimate references to future $dollar prices of Silver are stated in 2002 constant $dollar terms.





I. Silver Supply/Demand Imbalance

There has been consistently more user demand than producer supply for 14 years. During this time over 1500 Moz. (Million ounces) has been consumed from the world Silver stockpiles and used for industrial applications (mostly electronics), photography, jewelry & Silverware, and coins & medals. Last year 586 Moz. was mined from the Earth and 185 Moz. was recycled (mostly from photographical Silver applications) for a total supply of 771 Moz. Meanwhile the total demand was 838 Moz. Therefore last year 67 Moz. was consumed from world stockpiles of Silver. After 14 years of deficits the world stockpiles are extremely low. It is impossible for this deficit to continue much longer. Supply must soon come into equilibrium with demand. Either demand must fall substantially and/or supply must increase substantially. Silver is essential for our electronics rich world with new applications and uses for Silver consistently being discovered, as you can see at:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/,
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr10oct02.html, and
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr11apr03.html
with very little likelihood of a significant decline in industrial demand going forward. I especially urge potential the reading of the quarterly Silver news updates at:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/ltrcurrent.html

with very little likelihood of a significant decline in industrial demand going forward. Therefore supply must increase to meet the demand. However, starting new mines to produce Silver costs $7-$10+ per ounce. Therefore the price of Silver MUST go up to encourage new mines to be tapped. It is smart to own something which has and will continue to have more demand than supply at a given price. This simple supply/demand disequilibrium analysis is mentioned by Warren Buffett as the main reason he bought a large chunk of the world stockpile of Silver: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb03981.html

II. Silver is scarce

There is very little physical Silver that can be purchased for less than $5/oz. possibly less than 10 Moz., definitely less than 100 Moz. which is small change in today`s investment world. Even up to $10 there is most likely less than 500 Moz. available for new investment. Proof of scarcity:

The U.S. govt. had 2500 Moz. of Silver left after it discontinued making 90% Silver dimes/quarters/half dollar coins over 30 years ago. As of the end of 2002 it had none left. In 2003 the U.S. govt. is making market purchases averaging almost 1 Moz. per month to mint it`s now popular American Eagle 1 oz. coins.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr06aug02.html


The official Comex warehouses for investor Silver storage in the U.S. used to have over 300 Moz. 10 years ago
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/prsinv.htm

Now the Comex has 107 Moz.
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp


European bullion bank vaults had over 550 Moz. in 1990 and less than 300Moz. at the end of 2001 (of which 129 Moz. is owned by Warren Buffett).


Total world government stockpiles of Silver is estimated to be under 100 Moz. after 4 years of very heavy selling (mostly by China). I expect there will soon be publicized shortage of Silver. You definitely want to own Silver before any shortage is widely publicized.


III. Silver is Cheap

Despite the scarcity of Silver that has developed from 14 years of supply deficits the price is at all-time real lows ($4.55). At its peak in 1980 Silver went over $50/oz. (equivalent to around $150 in today`s dollars) when a small group tried to corner the market in it. You can review price data charts for the last 20 years by going to http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveSilver.html

Silver is especially cheap relative to gold. At various times in the last 30 years 20-100 ounces of Silver could buy you 1 oz. gold. Right now you need 80 oz. Silver to buy 1 oz. gold; thus making Silver relatively cheaper.
http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Charts/AuAG1lt.gif

One of the main reasons why Silver remained cheap in the 1990s despite big supply deficits is because most investors were selling their Silver holdings to buy into the popular stock market companies. This selling of Silver peaked in 2000 along with the stock market. From 1999 to now governments (mostly China) have helped fill the supply/demand gap by selling their holdings. Going forward, China should curtail its selling of Silver since it realizes its rapidly growing economy will soon be needing more Silver that it can produce internally. Another important reason why Silver prices have remained low is because most mines that produce Silver produce it as a byproduct. Mining companies that primarily produce zinc, lead, copper, and gold often extract Silver as well. In fact 70-75% of the Silver mined around the world is a byproduct of mining other metals.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/production.php

This results in the supply of Silver being inelastic to the price of Silver. Whether the price of Silver goes up or down substantially its supply will not vary much. Effectively the supply of Silver is governed more by the prices of zinc, lead, copper, and gold. If the prices of those metals are lower, some mines will reduce mining activities and thereby mine less Silver as well; and vise versa. So, although some primary producing mines have closed operations over the last 13 years due to being unprofitable operations under $5/oz. the supply of Silver has not been significantly affected since primary Silver mines make up a minority of Silver production. A price of over $7 is needed to encourage new primary production of Silver.

IV. The Smartest People Own Silver Now

At major turning points of asset prices the overwhelming majority of investors are always wrong. After a 23 year bear market in Silver, most investors have sold their holdings. Those that remain are disciplined savvy long-term investors like Warren Buffett that bought 129 Moz. in 1997 at $5.05/oz.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb03981.html

Other billionaires that are invested in Silver include George Soros, and Bill Gates who own shares in various Silver mining stocks and possibly Lawrence Tisch as well. So if we look at the 105 Moz. that is in storage at the Comex warehouses as mentioned above; it is likely that over 90 Moz. maybe 100+ Moz. is owned by people that will not sell anywhere near these prices. Most will not sell even if Silver goes to $10 next month.

V. Major Short Positions in Silver

Another major reason for the incredibly low price in Silver is that there have been massive amounts of shorting of Silver in the last 15 years. There have been 2 major reasons for Silver short selling over the years.

Silver producers enter into forward sale contracts to make delivery of future production at prearranged prices. For example, the biggest U.S. producer and shorter of Silver is Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE). They produce 20 Moz. of Silver per year but were short almost 50 Moz. in Silver at the end of 2002. Effectively that`s 2.5 years of pre-sold production which limits future supply. In February ABX made a press release that included the mention that they would start reducing their short position in various ways including making delivery on their forward contracts using current production. This means most of their 20 Moz. production will not be supplied to the market this year but will go to fulfill their previous delivery contracts. Thus adding to this year`s supply deficit numbers.


The leading independent Silver analyst Ted Butler (http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html) discovered Silver leasing around 7 years ago. With Silver leasing, an institution leases Silver from a major holder (mostly government central banks) and pays them a small interest rate of 1-2%. Seemed like easy money for the central bank that had the Silver collecting dust and storage fees so they loved the idea. For the institution that leases the Silver they simply sold the Silver into the marketplace and used the proceeds for investments yielding 6-10% thereby making a nice profit spread. A problem here is that most of these leases will never be repaid since the Silver has been sold and consumed and there is not enough Silver left out there to repay these leases back with Silver.


Then we have a massive short position on the Comex futures exchange. Each Comex Silver futures contract represents 5000 oz. and there are around 80,000 open contracts. That`s 400 Moz. which is more than what the world has today. The thing is most of these contracts are simply rolled over into the future when they come due. Few of them end up with the long side of the contract demanding delivery from the short side.

The detailed analysis of short activity in the Silver market is very complicated but the result is that it has caused the price of Silver to stay at an artificially extremely low price. It also means that future supply will be curtailed due to these pre-sales.

VI. Renewed Investor Demand

After a 20+ year bear market in Silver the average mainstream investor has had complete apathy for Silver as an investment since its been "dead money" for so long. Plus there have been no brokerage firms "pushing" Silver as an investment. Until about 10 years ago a portfolio allocation of 5-10% in gold and Silver was considered prudent by almost all financial advisors and brokerage firms. The 90`s mega stock market bull wiped that allocation off everyone`s sheets. However, since the pop of the stock market bubble investors have started moving back to gold and Silver as defensive investments. 2003 has shown an acceleration in investor demand for Silver.

Some proof below:

Data from the U.S. mint showing a big increase in demand for the American Silver Eagles: In 1999 sales doubled to 9 Moz. from an average of 4-5 Moz. in the 1990s due to the Y2K scare. But that increased pace stayed with us.... 2000 sales were 9.1 Moz 2001 sales were 8.8 Moz. 2002 sales were 10.5 Moz. 2003 1st Quarter sales were 3.656 Moz. which is an annual rate of 14.6 Moz:
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/


The most respected name in precious metals fabrication, Johnson Matthey, started producing 100 oz. bars for retail investors for the first time in 15 years to meet the renewed investor demand for Silver.
http://www.amark.com/fastfacts/newsletter/Jmbars102.htm


One of the most popular low-cost retail dealers:
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html#silver

was often temporarily sold out of parts of their Silver inventories early this year. In March they even had to switch their primary supplier mint from Northwest Territorial Mint to Amark because NWTM was not able to keep up with the huge increase in demand for Silver from Tulving customers. I have also seen notes that some local Silver dealers around the U.S. keep running out of inventory as well.


There is a closed-end mutual fund (CEF) that invests in physical gold and Silver. Closed-end mutual funds always trade at a discount or premium to the actual Net Asset Value of the fund. The degree to which a fund trades at a discount or premium is directly associated with the enthusiasm for that type of an investment by the public. During the precious metals major bear market from 1980 till 2001 CEF mostly traded at a discount. Since the end of 2001 CEF started trading at a premium and has remained that way. This shows us the renewed investor interest in Silver and that we are most likely at the beginning of a major bull market in Silver.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/data_through_ince…


Mexico (the largest Silver producing country) is considering adding Silver coins "Libertads" in mass to be used as money:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/salinas061103.html http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/silver.htm
VII. Negative Real Interest Rates

Historically, times of negative real interest rates (when inflation is higher than short-term interest rates) are very bullish for precious metal investments. There is simple logic behind this. Precious metals generally go up with inflation. Now investors are offered 1-2% short-term rates while inflation is 3-5%. So some investors recognize that they should own precious metals that should appreciate at least 3-5% to match inflation compared to only earning 1-2% interest. This investor appetite should increase greatly if capital gains on precious metals are taxed at 15% compared to interest income that is taxed at up to 35%.

VIII. Silver IS MONEY

Silver is a protection against inflation. The benefit of owning Silver (as well as gold) during inflationary times is that it will hold its purchasing power. Silver (and gold) has been considered MONEY in most places for all of human civilization. In fact the word for money in many languages is the same as the word for Silver. While gold was used to settle large transactions (mostly between nations) Silver was used for everyday transactions. Silver is real money that cannot be inflated without the heavy costs of mining and refining it out of the Earth. This is in sharp contrast to the currencies around the world today, especially the U.S. dollar. It is very easy to print dollars out of thin air which is being done consistently. In fact here is the dictionary definition of inflation: A persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services. Over 30 years ago the United States went off of the gold and Silver money standard and increased the printing of dollars. The money supply almost doubled from 1972 to 1978. Common sense tells us that the more dollars exist, the less the value per dollar. This is the basic meaning of inflation. During this period of unabashed increase in money supply the price of Silver went from under $2 in 1972 to over $6 in 1978. Then it defied a normal price of $7-$10 and continued to a high of $50/oz. when a group tried to corner the market on Silver. Of course this corner failed and the price crashed to more normal levels. Meanwhile our government (through the Federal Reserve Bank) woke up and decided to cease the massive expansion of the money supply. This was the beginning of the 20 year big bear market in Silver. The last time Silver traded over $10 was in 1987.

We are at the very beginning of a renewed period of hard asset inflation. The Federal Reserve is conducting a highly inflationary policy of low interest rates and heavy new printing of dollars. This manipulation of dollars has already devalued our dollar by 30% against the Euro currency in 1 year. Gold is up 15% in 1 year. The average commodity is up 20% in 1 year as measured by the popular Goldman Sachs commodity index.

Meanwhile Silver is actually slightly down over the last year. This offers current buyers an extremely low price entry point. Inflation in our dollars is simply a hidden way to tax holders of dollars. The spending habits of our government are gluttonous and ever growing. The citizens of the U.S. are already very heavily taxed. Our government already has accumulated a colossal debt load by borrowing $trillions in the debt markets. Yet govt. spending is increasing while its revenues are decreasing. So what happens? Effectively the govt. is now printing dollars out of thin air to pay for the shortfall in revenues versus expenditures. This process will now be accelerated with the new tax cuts. This excessive printing of dollars is devaluating the dollar at a rapid pace. This is very appealing politically. The tax cuts make the citizens happier and shift the burden of the monstrous government budget deficit on all holders of U.S. dollars. Since almost half the holders of dollars (especially U.S. govt. bonds) are not U.S. citizens, the burden of the dollar devaluation is partially put on the backs of foreigners. As the dollar depreciates, it follows that the price of Silver (which is stated in dollar terms) must appreciate over time.

The U.S. is now running a trade deficit of around $500 billion per year. This essentially means that we are importing more goods and services than we are exporting. The deficit is filled by exporting dollars (mostly in the form of debt) to other (mostly Asian) countries. We are literally exporting dollars at almost $1,000,000 per MINUTE. Thus far these Asian exporting countries (mostly China now) have been "suckered" into taking unbacked paper dollars to finance our consumption oriented culture. Now they are being suckered in even more by accepting extremely low interest rates on their dollar holdings. It is probable that these foreign countries awash with low yielding IOU`s (dollars) will stop accepting dollars as payment by quickly selling dollars to buy hard assets as new dollars come in. This will accelerate the devaluation of the dollar, causing inflation.

Additionally, it is politically easy to engineer inflation because the overwhelming majority of Americans are in debt (usually heavy debt). Holders of debt embrace inflation since their repayments will be easier to make. In the United States: consumers, corporations, and the govt. have racked up immense amounts of debt. This massive debt is increasing at a huge pace due to the (manipulative) low interest rate environment. In fact our culture strongly encourages debt. Everyone gets endless credit card promotions in the mail. The American net savings rate is near zero. It is almost unheard of to purchase a new car outright let alone a house. Debt has become a huge part of our society. The current American very high standard of living is financed by and very dependent on debt. How many people would be driving $40,000+ cars if they were not able to finance them? Who will cry foul as high inflation takes hold in the dollar? Most of the net creditors of dollar debt are foreigners. Why would the govt. politicians care what they think or how they get hurt? What are they going to do to the only super-power left in the world?

As you can see, the path of least resistance is high inflation. Silver (and gold) is your best protection against this rapid devaluation of the dollar. In the 1970`s real estate also protected investors from the inflation of the dollar. However, today`s situation is very different. Today`s real estate valuations are already inflated due to the credit/debt bubble. Today`s real estate prices are very dependent on buyers getting credit at a low interest rate to fund the purchase. When strong inflation takes hold and interest rates are forced higher there will be a triple whammy for real estate (especially homes). First, most potential buyers will walk away from the market when faced with 8%+ rates compared to rates under 6%. This will be a big decrease in demand. Second, banks will be more cautious on making low down payment loans. Third, banks will become more cautious about making any types of loans with long-term fixed interest rates since they will be getting repaid with rapidly depreciating dollars. If you imagine yourself in the shoes of a banking entity you will see how dangerous this is to the currently high housing prices that are completely based on debt.

In the very long-run the whole basis behind having a currency without any hard asset backing it up is flawed and fraudulent. There is nothing stopping our govt. from printing unlimited amounts of dollars. In fact this printing power is necessary for a government that often buys votes through unmerited handouts. The extreme of this is a socialistic or worse a communistic govt. that takes money from productive individuals and gives it to unproductive "needy" individuals (minus taking a percentage for itself) without regard to merit. This is the opposite of capitalism based on freedom and liberty. Our paper dollars are now essentially worthless except for our faith in the govt. As our govt. moves more away from capitalism there will come a time when its motives are publicly put into question. You certainly do not want to own dollars at that time. Ironically, our popular Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan understands the inherent fraud of dollars unbacked by gold or Silver as you can see by the very interesting article he wrote 40 years ago that I strongly advise reading:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/greenspan041998.html

Most likely there will come a time when most of us will be billionaires but a gallon of milk will cost $25,000! A new currency will have to be issued that is backed by real gold and Silver. Since currently all world currencies are not backed by hard assets the same will happened worldwide. The biggest losers will be holders of fixed-income credit securities (mostly bonds) and cash.

The inflationary risks all by themselves warrant Silver (and/or gold) ownership at 10% of your net worth if only as insurance. Silver as money is undervalued relative to gold since 1 ounce of gold buys ~75 ounces of Silver. Historically the ratio was 1gold:16Silver.

IX. Silver Going to $50+/oz.

I believe Silver`s intrinsic value is worth around $15/oz. right now. As a value investor I love buying undervalued good assets then selling them out around what I think they are worth without regret when they go much higher. However, in the case of Silver I expect to sell much of my holdings at prices well above the intrinsic value. Below are the reasons why Silver should catapult well past its intrinsic value for a period of time. All are based on the development of a Silver shortage:

Silver industrial demand and mining supply is inelastic. That means the amount demanded and supplied is barely affected by changes in the price of Silver. I explained the inelasticity of mining supply at the end of part III. Silver industrial demand is almost completely inelastic. Silver is an essential and irreplaceable part of many electronic devices such as computers. The amount of Silver used to make each electronics device is miniscule. A $2000 new Dell computer has nowhere near 1 ounce of Silver in it so it does not matter to Dell whether it costs $1 or $20 worth of Silver to produce 1 computer. Dell would even pay $100 for the tiny amount of Silver it needs for each computer since without that Silver it is impossible to build that computer. The same is try for Silver application in photography. Also most of the cost of Silver jewelry is based on the labor it takes to make it into various shapes so a price of $50/oz. may only result in a doubling of the price of Silver jewelry which is inexpensive anyway. So the overall fabrication demand for Silver should hardly drop at all even with a tenfold increase in the price of Silver. While the mining supply of Silver will not increase greatly since 70% of the Silver mined is a small byproduct from mining other metals (assuming the prices of those metals do not rise substantially).


Most users of Silver operate under Just In Time inventory management. JIT was an innovation by Japanese firms 25 years ago and made a standard in corporate culture in the 1980s to reduce capital expenditure costs. Companies no longer keep large amounts of raw materials that are needed to manufacture their products. They have efficient arrangements with suppliers to make delivery "just in time" for production thus freeing up capital that used to be just sitting around in the form of raw materials that would not get used for many months. The Silver shortage will be a serious problem for them since some will fail to receive all the Silver they need from their usual suppliers. For many companies a lack of Silver would result in a halt of production. This situation will probably encourage most Silver using companies to aggressively buy up as much Silver as they can for fear of delays in production. Most companies will pay ANY PRICE needed to obtain physical Silver right away. Wouldn`t you do the same in their shoes?


When a shortage of Silver becomes widely publicized and the price races over $10/oz. an immense group of momentum traders/investors whose strategy is to "buy high & sell higher" will be looking to buy into it. Tens (maybe hundreds) of Billions of dollars will be chasing after less than $5 Billion of Silver.


Most investors naturally do not quickly sell an asset that is quickly appreciating in value thus adding to the shortage.


Recognizing the shortage, enough money will want to buy physical Silver by looking to take delivery on Comex Silver futures contracts to cause the failure of shorts to make delivery of Silver on their obligations against these contracts since they do not have enough Silver. The result will be that Silver futures contracts will trade at a substantial discount to physical Silver because no one will know when deliveries will actually be made.


When Silver goes over $10 there will be a lot of new (and old) primary Silver mines that will be started. However, it takes 1-3 years from the time a decision is made to start a Silver mine till the first ounce of Silver is sold into the market. Therefore this future supply will not help the immediate Silver shortage situation.


As prices approach and surpass $50/oz. there will be a flood of small coin holders looking to cash in their coins. They will look to sell them to local dealers who will then sell them to smelters that convert them into Silver suitable for industrial uses and/or to make delivery on the Comex. However, there will be a bottleneck since the few smelting operations that exist can only smelt a limited amount of Silver per month. Therefore the large quantities of Silver coins will not impede the price rise in Silver immediately.


All these reasons combined make it quite possible that Silver will go to well over $100/oz. at its peak. It is impossible to say how high Silver can go.

Now is the perfect time to buy Silver. Not only does it offer explosive potential due to scarcity and protection from inflation, but it is now so cheap that the downside risk in price is negligible. It is better to own Silver a year early than 1 week late. Silver will still be good buy at $6, $7, $10 per ounce; but the risk/reward ratio will never be this low again. Ownership of Silver does not offer you interest/dividends while you hold it and it incurs storage costs of up to 1% per year but these negative factors are tiny compared to the positive ones.

Ways to Invest in Silver

There are several ways to participate in the coming rise of Silver prices. Each has advantages and disadvantages. The best ways to invest are dependant on individual situations.

Silver mining/resource company stocks: Since the majority of people today are very familiar with stocks, many will choose to purchase Silver stocks to speculate on the price of Silver. There are only 3 major primary Silver stocks. Their symbols are SIL, PAAS, and SSRI. Additionally there are 2 more companies that produce a lot of Silver but also produce gold. Those are CDE and HL. SIL has George Soros as a major investor and his brother Paul Soros is on the board of directors. PAAS has Bill Gates as a major shareholder. The company web sites offer a wealth of information about Silver in their annual reports:
http://www.apexsilver.com/
http://www.panamericansilver.com/

There are also many tiny companies that own Silver resources which can be reviewed from the Silver stocks links that can be seen here:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/hommelndx.html

I believe direct physical Silver ownership is better than owning Silver mining/resource company stocks if the Silver shortage situation that I am expecting forces the price to explode very high and very fast. These companies cannot take advantage of a fast run-up in prices like an individual holder of physical Silver can since they cannot increase production substantially in a short period of time. Plus their mines are mostly located in countries that are not politically stable and may make detrimental moves against a mining operation that is making windfall gains by selling Silver at $30-$100+ per ounce. Some of those countries may increases taxes and/or tariffs or even nationalize the mines yelling that these natural resources belong to the people of the country. These mining stocks are better suited towards a gradual rise in price that stays high but not too high. Plus you have the risk that management will make poor decisions on your behalf and/or take extreme bonuses in the form of stock options and dilute your ownership stake. Also if inflation becomes a big factor it will make the costs that go into producing Silver (especially energy costs) go up as well thus limiting the profit potential of mines. Additionally Silver stocks are not pure plays on Silver, they are a diluted way of investing in Silver since they mine other products such as lead, zinc, and gold.

Meanwhile despite many people`s belief that Silver stocks are leveraged to the price rise of Silver, during the only Silver sharp price rise in 15 years the Silver stocks significantly underperformed Silver itself.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=1818431…

On August 10th I made a post summarizing the above:
http://tinyurl.com/jkfu


Central Fund of Canada. I mentioned this closed-end mutual earlier that owns physical gold and Silver. It trades under the symbol CEF and is as easy to buy as any other stock. The main disadvantage of the fund is that only 40% of its assets are in Silver (the rest is gold). While gold will do great in protecting you against inflation, it should significantly under perform Silver especially when the Silver shortage hits. So an investment in CEF is a "diluted" way of investing in Silver. The other disadvantage is that it now trades at a premium (which fluctuates daily) to its net worth. At 10%+ premium it becomes significantly overvalued relative to the underlying precious metals it owns. You can check the premium at:
http://cefa.com/scripts/fundstat.asp?id=cef


Physical Silver stored at COMEX: Silver that is stored at Comex is grouped into Comex warehouse warrant receipts. Each warrant consists of 5 1000 oz. bars of .999 pure industrial Silver (each bar varies in precise weight and has a unique serial number). For many people this is the best way to invest in Silver. The easiest way to buy Comex Silver is through a precious metals brokerage firm such as HSBC bank or http://www.fidelitrade.com/ that charges around 1% commission. You should request the Silver be deposited at Comex and the warrants of ownership be mailed to you. It costs around $20/month/5 1000 oz. bars to store your Silver at Comex. Since 75% of the total Comex Silver is stored in New York City which is clearly a target for terrorist attacks it may be wise to have your Comex Silver stored at the only warehouse outside of NYC which is in Delaware. Fidelitrade deals directly with that Delaware warehouse. Since recently, you are allowed to purchase 1000 oz. bars in your IRA. The biggest IRA custodian that s pecializes in this is http://www.churchtrust.com. Another IRA custodian that I came across which looks better is http://www.sterling-trust.com/irabasic.html.

The most cost effective way to buy Comex Silver is by taking the time to open an account with a futures/commodities brokerage firm and send them money. Buy a nearby Silver futures contract(s), pay around $15-$35 commission per contract. Pay an extra $50-$100 per contract to take delivery of the warehouse warrants of ownership. It comes out to a cost of less than $.02 per ounce compared to up to $.05 per ounce by purchasing the bars directly. Another good broker for 1000 oz. bars is Amark.com which is probably the biggest Silver wholesale dealer and has been around for a long time.

If Silver goes to $50+ you should have no trouble selling these bars at the spot price with a small commission.


Silver futures: This is the most efficient way to actively trade Silver; which I would not suggest doing. If you want to speculate in Silver using high leverage this is the way to go. You can control 5000 oz. of Silver with less than $2000. This effectively gives you more than 12:1 leverage if you want it. I believe this type of Silver investment is not good for most people since it encourages buying more than one can handle and possibly taking big losses on small pullbacks in price. More importantly in a major Silver shortage Silver futures contracts will be trading at a big discount to physical Silver prices.


Silver coins and bars:
http://www.nwtmintbullion.com/SilverBullion.htm
This is "retail" Silver in many forms ranging from 1 oz. coins to 100 oz. bars. This is a good way to own Silver if you want to keep some of your holdings privately for whatever reason. Also some Doom & Gloom people (not including me) own a lot of Silver (and gold) because they think a financial collapse is coming whereby regular purchases would only be made in Silver and gold. As an investment, retail Silver is very poor. You have to pay more than a 10% premium when you buy. Then you have to accept a discount when you sell if prices go up a lot. In 1980 when the price of Silver went to $50 people that wanted to sell their Silver coins were usually offered only $20-$25 per ounce.
http://www.geocities.com/porfiry2000/silverbags/1980stories.…

Addendum

For the price of Silver to move we definitely need investment demand to get the price higher sooner. A big problem is that today`s investors are securities oriented and commodities shy. A whole generation has been taught how to easily buy stocks at the detriment of hard commodity investments.

We have seen big interest in ALL the Silver equities yet the actual metal is unchanged.

The capitalization of Silver stocks has ballooned at least 3 fold since the end of 2000. Though the total cap. is still tiny, it has made this move without a rise in the price of Silver.

There has been a significant increase in demand for retail type bullion and possibly industrial bars as well but nothing compared to the interest in Silver stocks. People are understanding the value of investing in Silver but they are neglecting the metal itself in favor of the "easier" stock plays. This was most evident in February when CEF traded up to a huge premium of 32% to NAV then remained at around a 25% premium for weeks. This would have been fine had CEF`s management done a lot more issuing of shares and used the proceeds to buy the precious metals. But unfortunately they mostly sat on their hands, issuing relatively few new shares. I am just surprised the medium and large investors are not stepping up to the plate as much.

I think a big part of the problem can be characterized by the response I got from a big investor whom I tried to convince to purchase Silver. "I`m not a commodities guy", he said. So the current rich investors of the world obviously made their money in stocks (and real estate?). All the commodities guys (especially PM guys) have nearly gone broke and have certainly lost credibility. So only the very few flexible investors are moving into Silver bullion.

But going back to the Silver stocks. The huge interest in those shares results in high valuations that naturally encourages the management to issue more shares and use the cash proceeds to:

increase production
explore for new mines
develop current mines that are not cost viable yet

All are bad for the Price Of Silver in their own ways. #1 is bad in the more immediate sense with primary producers like CDE and PAAS rampantly increasing production. #2 and #3 are bad as companies like SSRI and SIL are itching to go into production as soon as prices go over $6 (though it will take them a couple of years to actually start producing).

Owning Silver stocks ultimately provides an investor profits based on the future production of Silver at the FUTURE price of Silver. In effect, if there is a shortage that propels Silver to $30-$50+ in 2004 Silver stocks can do almost nothing to benefit because the price of Silver 2 years into the future (when their production will start to go online) will most likely not go over $15-$20. This is because the mine production of Silver will increase well over 100Moz. at over $10/oz. Therefore while a physical Silver owner can benefit by selling potentially at $50+, the mining companies that will have Silver in the FUTURE have no way of taking advantage of spot Silver prices. Plus you should consider that the future costs of producing Silver will likely go up significantly thereby eating into the Silver mining profits.

As an extreme case it may be possible that the huge demand for Silver equities will continue encouraging those companies to dramatically increase production to the point that the world supply/demand imbalance is closed. These Silver stock investors are hurting themselves and all other Silver investors by bidding up the stocks to unreasonable levels. Meanwhile Silver stock insiders have been selling shares.

So all these modern day stock investors correctly seeing a high Silver price potential for appreciation go and buy Silver stocks. This becomes a self-defeating process!

The very bulls that would love for Silver to rocket up are causing production to rocket instead! ! !

Of course while Silver may stay flat or go down a drop in the short-term the Silver stocks will get creamed as it becomes obvious that production is growing tremendously thus filling the world deficit while the companies continue to post losses.

It is ironic to see PAAS and CDE flaunt how their production is and will continue to rise quickly while this process works to defeat the main reason Silver should rise.

Hopefully new uses for Silver will materialize to keep demand up with this potential supply increase.

There is little doubt in my mind that even if production does increase dramatically the bullish factors still favor Silver as the best place for your money today. However, the merits of investing into Silver stocks at high valuations eludes me.

Most Silver stock investors think their top reason for owning Silver equities instead of the metal itself is for leverage. Leverage has costly drawbacks if Silver stays under $5.

I am not against leverage in and of itself; if you want leverage you can simply buy physical Silver on margin/borrowed money.

CDE and PAAS are HURTING all types of Silver investors because they insist on greatly expanding production even while POS is below $5. This is a self defeating process that plays right into the hands of the mega-shorts because it helps keep the price low as more physical Silver is made available. They are using part of the proceeds of stock sales to increase production. People that are buying Silver stocks to participate in a Silver price rise are indirectly reducing the possibility and extent of the price rise they wish to participate in.

Investors and PM advisors need to understand that at certain valuations (especially now) they are much better off investing in the physical precious metals directly even if it is a bit of a hassle.

Here are 3 other good reference links I want to mention.

For those that think digital cameras will do serious harm to Silver prices, read this article:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0822.htm


For more details along with nice charts on the decline of the U.S. economy this is one of my favorite web sites:
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/


Here is the link to one of the most popular Silver websites:
http://www.silver-investor.com/

Good Investing :-)

[TOPBLOEDEL]

To: Attorney General State of New York
As WebMaster of http://www.goldismoney.info web site, and a long time investor in Commodities I am concerned that the small Silver investor is going to get burned. We investors that may be cheated would like you to investigate this. I have included a letter that was written to you by Theodore Butler of Butler Research. You can find some very good research on his site. I am creating this petition in support of a letter he wrote you. If Mr. Butler is correct we want the shorts to do the right thing and pay up. Please do not let them get away with selling Silver short for years and manipulating the market. I invest using fundamentals of supply/demand as many small investors do. I went long on the information I had, and those that sold short need to cover those shorts.

--------------------------------- Ted Butler`s Letter below


"September 15, 2003


The Honorable Eliot Spitzer
Attorney General
State of New York
120 Broadway
New York, NY 10271

Dear Attorney General Spitzer:

First, let me congratulate and applaud you on your courageous and effective campaign to root out wrongdoing in the financial industry. Millions of ordinary investors are better off due to your actions. I wish you continued success.

I write to alert you to yet another high-profile financial fraud, that has affected many tens of thousands of innocent victims. The fraud involves the silver market. For 20 years, the price of silver has been manipulated and artificially depressed by a small group of large financial firms and traders, principally from New York`s Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX), the world`s primary and most dominant precious metals exchange.

Briefly, the manipulation has operated like this - whenever, since 1983, market participants have purchased silver contracts on the COMEX in sufficient numbers to cause a price rise, the manipulators have sold short naked silver contracts (not backed by real silver or legitimate hedging) in any quantities deemed necessary to overwhelm the buyers and eventually cause the price to decline. As prices decline, the manipulators then cover their shorts, at a profit, and await the next opportunity to sell again and repeat the process. The proof of this illegal activity is a total silver short position on the COMEX that is greater than either world production or total world known inventories. The most recent market statistics indicate a near record short position in COMEX silver futures and call options of 900 million ounces, versus a world annual mine production of less than 600 million ounces and a world visible bullion inventory of less than 150 million ounces. The existence of a short position greater than what exists or could be produced annually is, of course, an absurd situation which has never occurred in any other commodity.

Certainly, while the selling short of unlimited quantities of naked paper silver contracts on the COMEX has artificially depressed the price, this selling alone could not keep the price depressed for so many years. Sooner, rather than later, this manipulation would have failed, due to the effect the artificial low price would have in the real world, namely, in increasing demand and curtailing supply. The manipulators have been able to circumvent the law of supply and demand by simultaneously dumping real silver on the market from a non-free market source. The same manipulative paper short sellers on the COMEX have devised and managed the silver "leasing" business, which, in essence, is the non-economic dumping of silver from foreign central banks, including the Philippines and Red China.

I have publicly documented this silver fraud and manipulation for many years. I have notified and publicly debated this issue with the regulator of last resort, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as with senior management of the COMEX, which functions as the self-regulator. I have even notified the senior management of the five firms who I have publicly identified as the ringleaders, or Silver Managers. Full details can be found at my web site.

Bottom line, it is simple to prove that a long term price manipulation has existed in silver, due to an incontrovertible maxim of the law of supply and demand, namely, that it is impossible, in a true free market, to have a commodity in a deficit, with documented declines in inventory, without sharply higher prices. Yet, that is precisely what has occurred in silver. Because silver has been in a verified deficit for many years, many billions of ounces of inventory have been consumed. Yet in spite of a draw down in world inventories of billions of ounces, the price has been stagnant, because of the manipulative activities of the COMEX Silver Managers.

As I`m sure you know, it is impossible to deplete inventories so severely without a corresponding price rise, in a free market. The CFTC, even though it is staffed with a taxpayer-funded economic department, as well as the COMEX, has not and can not address this inventory decline/no price increase conundrum, even though they have been asked, by me and many others.

Please allow me to be clear as to why I am writing to you. I am not asking that you investigate this silver market manipulation. The CFTC and the COMEX have already investigated and they claim that there is no manipulation in silver. But the public statistics and facts about silver so overwhelmingly point to a certain physical shortage looming dead-ahead, that it will become obvious, in the relative near future, via sharply higher prices, that there was indeed a manipulation. A reasonable person could reach no other conclusion.

My concern is that because the CFTC and COMEX have been so steadfast in denying that a manipulation in the silver market actually exists, that they will respond to sharply higher prices in a manner consistent with their past statements and actions, namely, they will attempt to continue to protect the shorts and to punish the longs. If history is any guide, there will be attempts to relieve the shorts of their prime responsibility to deliver physical silver, or to set special obstacles on the longs to prevent them from receiving delivery.

I am respectfully requesting, when silver prices begin to reflect the true fundamentals, that you stay alert to likely attempts to compromise market integrity, by rule changes and emergency orders on the COMEX, that seek to protect the manipulative shorts. If the CFTC and COMEX management see nothing wrong with a naked short position greater than all the silver in the world, then they must not be allowed to change the rules and terms forcing those shorts to deliver real silver, if demanded to by the longs. No one forced these shorts to sell in the first place. If the CFTC and COMEX management see nothing wrong with the historically low price of a commodity in a structural deficit with exhausted inventories, then they must not be allowed to interfere with the historically high price to come, as guaranteed by the law of supply and demand.

I am also respectfully requesting that you contact the COMEX, and ask them what plans they have in place to deal with the inevitable silver shortage, in the hope of heading off a market emergency. Please ask them to explain how they will safeguard the rights of innocent ordinary investors to receive delivery on their contracts, when there is so little real silver around and so many times that amount held short.

We all know that if someone writes a check that he knows is not backed by sufficient funds and will bounce, that is a crime. Is it less (or more) of a crime if large financial firms sell contracts of silver short, that they know they can`t back up with real silver, simply to artificially depress the price? Please ask the COMEX what safeguards they have in place to insure that big short position holders can fulfill their responsibility to deliver real silver. If any COMEX contracts are ever returned and stamped "insufficient silver", I hope and expect that you will prosecute the silver short check writers to the fullest criminal extent of the law."

-----------------------------------

For more in depth details and research please go here.. http://www.butlerresearch.com/archive_free.html


Sincerely,

[hpoth]

Schade das alles in English ist, kann nur einiges verstehen.Aber eins weis ich auch, der Silberpreis,der lange geschlafen hat kommt in Bewegung,wenn wir weltweit mit Inflaton rechnen müssen,ist Silber das Gold des " Kleinen-Mannes"
mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@reindste und alle anderen fehlinformierten Leser im Gold und Silber Board.

Der Silberverbrauch der Photoindustrie steigt trotz, oder sogar nicht zuletzt wegen der Digitalphotographie ständig weiter an. So ca. mit einer 10%igen Verbrauchszunahme pro Jahr. Diese Angaben stammen von der Firma Kodak, die diese Zunahme auch weiterhin für die nächsten Jahre als gegeben ansieht!

Habe schon in früheren Postings darüber berichtet. Da sich aber immer wieder neue Leser im Goldboard, über die Digital Photographie informieren wollen, die angeblich mitschuldig an den tiefen Silberpreisen sein soll, auf ein Neues.

Habe erst kürzlich wieder von eigenen Digitalaufnahmen Photoabzüge im Labor machen lassen.

Zum einen war das ein recht teures Unterfangen, und zum andern verbrauchte das Photolabor dabei bei der Entwicklung selbstverständlich Silber!

Falls die digitalen Fotos nur ausgedruckt werden, dann entfällt natürlich der Silberverbrauch. Vielfach werden aber auch zuerst Printer Ausdrucke, und später dann doch noch Fotoabzüge von digitalen Aufnahmen gemacht.

Es ist in der Praxis heute so, dass immer mehr Leute eine digitale Kamera benutzen, die noch gar keinen Computer besitzen, oder mit den Programmen die zur Verwaltung, und zum Ausdrucken auf dem eigenen Printer benötigen, ganz einfach überfordert sind, sodass sie der Einfachheit wegen, ihre Digital-Kamera-Speicher-Medien in ein dafür eingerichtetes Labor einsenden, oder selbst vorbei bringen, um ganz normale Photopapier Abzüge machen zu lassen, oder allenfalls auch direkt über das Internet, normale Photoabzüge auf Fotopapier bestellen.

Z.Bsp. hier:http://www.mediumts.com/link/digital/digitale_bilddienste.ht…
oder hier:
http://www.primuspixel.de/?vcode=XAFFILI&ref=6771&affmt=b1&a…

Falls Dich das Recycling von Silberhaltigen Abfällen von Fotolabors näher interessiert, kannst Du vielleicht hier fündig werden:

http://dc2.uni-bielefeld.de/dc2/foto/rec.html

oder hier:

http://www.kodak.com/country/DE/de/corp/environment/kes/faq/…

Sollte Dir der "Zeitungs-Schreiberling" von dem Du Deine falschen Informationen zum Silberverbrauch in der Fotoindustrie her hast, zufälligerweise verkommen, informiere ihn bitte auch, damit dieser Nichtswisser, und Schwätzer seinen Horizont ein wenig aufhellen kann.

Das allermeiste Silber, dass in der Fotoindustrie "verbrauch…

Du bist leider wie so viele andere auch, einem Märchen des Silber Kartells aufgesessen, dass diese immer wieder gerne verbreiten lassen.


Gruss

Thaiguru

[dieNachteule]

@Thaiguru & alle anderen


Die viel grössere Lüge ist, dass die Photografie von Bedeutung sei. Das ist kaum der Fall, da 90% des Fotosilbers eh recycelt wird. Der effektive Silberverbrauch aus der Fotografie liegt bei ca. 20 Mio. Unzen/Jahr, ob das jetzt steigt oder fällt, ist Nebensache. Der Motor für den Silberverbrauch ist die Elektronikindustrie, mit über 350 Mio. Unzen Verbrauch/Jahr.

Und steigend.

Dann kommt noch die Nachfrage nach Schmuck, die wird es wohl immer geben. Die Bevölkerung nimmt zu. Erst bei viel höheren Silberpreisen wird ein Teil des Schmucks und der Münzen "aus der Reserve" in den Verbrauch gehen.

Also nicht verarschen lassen. Silber kaufen. (Richtiges Silber, kein Papier!)


MfG, Die Nachteule

[ThaiGuru]

@dieNachteule

Was Du geschrieben hast kann ich ebenfalls voll unterstreichen!

Gegen alle Widerstände, evtuellen Ausredungsversuchen des Ba…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[dieNachteule]

@Thaiguru


Meine Bank ist gut, die haben mir nichts ausreden wollen.

Es gibt ja Gerüchte, Silber sei kaum noch zu bekommen. Ich werde morgen mal anfragen, ob ich was bestellen kann. Dann wird man sehen...


MfG, Die Nachteule

[thschmidt]

Im Gegensatz zu damals ist er gut gekommen, allerdings tendiert er nun schon lönger seitwärts. ob da nochmal ein Ausbruch kommt?