Apple - unaufhaltsamer Aufstieg - wie lange noch? (Seite 4651)

[sebesdschen]

MacRumors.com will aus verlässlicher Quelle erfahren haben, dass Apple tatsächlich in zwei Wochen auf der Macworld in San Francisco ein sehr kleines und leichtes Laptop vorstellen wird. Um das Laptop möglichst leicht und klein zu halten, wurde auf ein internes CD/DVD-Laufwerk verzichtet. CDs und DVDs lassen sich mit einem externen Laufwerk einlesen.
Apple wird, so MacRumors, aber noch weitere Neuerungen im Laptop-Bereich vorstellen. Vielerorts rechnet man mit einer komplett neuen Revision des MacBook Pros. Bei einem der neuen Rechner wird Apple ein Multi-Touch-Trackpad verwenden, so MacRumors.com.

Die MacWorld Expo San Francisco beginnt am 15. Januar 2008 mit der Keynote, MacTechNews.de wird live vor Ort sein und auch viele Bilder von der größten Mac-Messe veröffentlichen (cmk)

[Gilbertus]

Apple Rechneranteil weiter
gestiegen ....

02.01.2008 - 19:15

Cupertino, California - Im allgemeinen Katzenjammer der Wall Street geht eine weitere gute Nachricht für Apple etwas unter. Der US-Marktanteil für die kultigen Mac-Rechner der Kalifornier kletterte im Dezember auf 7,3% (November: 6,8%).


Quelle; © BörseGo AG 2007


Ich denke, der Kurs wird bis 15.1.08 (Messe) ca. bei $ 218.-- liegen,

schaun mer mal ....

Eure Meinungen ?

.



.

[ministroba]

lesenswerte beiträge für alle, die sich jetzt gedanken machen, ob es sich lohnt, kurz vor der macworld gewinne mitzunehmen, um danach dann wieder billiger einzusteigen:

1. ein beitrag im apple 2.0 blog von fortune:

Apple daytrading: How to cash in on the Macworld keynote effect

The buzz among Apple (AAPL) traders today is a thought experiment that Matt Haughey worked up at A Whole Lotta Nothing. He writes

A few months ago I was thinking about Apple’s rise in value after the iPhone and how Steve Jobs does a great keynote every year, and naturally I thought “I wonder if there’s a way to make money off quick investments around the keynotes?” Then I thought “What if you did this every year, for just a day or two of investment?”

Haughey worked the numbers and the result is the chart above, which he calls the Keynote Index Fund (click chart to view full size). His conclusion: if you had invested in his hypothetical fund for the past two years, you would have realized a healthy 7.3% profit over 24 hours and 11.9% over 48 hours. The longer term results are not quite so impressive. Over the past decade, the fund gained 1.2% over 24 hours and 2.2% over 48.

Of course, long-term Apple investors have done considerably better. Haughey points out that if you had bought $10,000 worth of Apple stock in 1997 and held it the whole time, it would be worth $525,187 today.

Haughey’s methodology has been raked over the coals rather thoroughly at MetaTalk, where it has been pointed out in several ways that hindsight is enormously seductive but not much help in picking stocks.

Curiously, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster performed a thought experiment similar to Haughey’s last month and arrived at the opposite conclusion. Reviewing Apple share prices in the month before and the month after Macworld over the past three years, he noted that the stock tends to rise in advance of the keynote and to fall afterward — or at least it did two years out of three (see chart at right). His analysis suggests the old Wall Street adage: buy on the buzz, sell on the news.

UPDATE: Speaking for the bulls at The Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board, reader Tommo_UK looks beyond the Macworld effect to offer this sensible advice:

The “clever” trade for early 2008 was to buy sub-$200 and sell in the run-up to Macworld, and then buy the “sell the news reaction” afterwards for a run-up into earnings, but this strategy has now become so well-discussed and widespread that its pretty much a given and is probably itself going to be the subject of predatory manipulation by larger players. Perhaps the alternative trade is simply to recognise that the earnings growth machine is only just revving up, courtesy of the Mac market share increase and iPhone deferred revenue/subscriber revenue sharing and step aside from being whipsawed by these crooks, and simply hold as large a position as you can comfortably achieve which won’t result in you being whipsawed/liquidated by wild 10-20% swings.


2. der sehr überzeugende beitrag von tommo_uk ist in voller länge unter

http://www.macobserver.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=61151

nachzulesen.

Fazit: die apple-gewinne liegen noch über den erwartungen, es geht weiter hoch, aber mit stärkeren kursausschlägen (im zweifelsfall auch manipuliert durch finanzstarke investoren) in beide richtungen. traden lohnt sich aber eher nicht, da man gefahr läuft, den rechtzeitigen wiedereinstieg zu verpassen.

[bosna-celik]

KLingt blöd, aber gut das APPle jetzt korrigiert.
Das ist sehr gesund für den Chart.

[tiefer_blick]

Apple Awesome Market Share Gains

Apple's market share gains in December for the Mac and iPhone are impressive. However, for the last days of December, the numbers are nothing short of spectacular.
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustom…

[aldeboni]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.904.689 von bosna-celik am 31.12.07 14:16:06

gesünder wohl für die kontinuierliche Zukunft - aber das wird nicht so passieren .. vielleicht doch - was jedoch weitgehend unwahrscheinlich ist ..

heute wird in USA gehandelt und im Pre-Market stehen wir im High bei 200,75 .. der reguläre Nasdaq Kurs ist 199,83 .. und wir könnten zum Jahresschluß auf Nasdaq fallen auf 188,00 oder steigen auf 204,00 .. oder auch beides im Intraday gemeinsam sehen ..

alles möglich aus meiner Sicht .. in jedenfall geht wohl Apple UP .. ist nur die Frage wie hoch es geht bis zu den Q1 Zahlen .. ich denke jedenfalls dass es bis zu 250 hochgehen kann .. aber vielleicht bin ich nur ein Spinner .. halte aber 235 für realistisch ..

[bosna-celik]

Ciaobella.

Glaubt ihr auch daran, das vor der messe der kurs steigt, während der messe gewinne mitgenommen werden und dann bis zu den zahlen es wieder aufwärts geht ?

Wie sieht die chartechnische situation den genau aus ?
Wie sind die Indikatoren, ich denke das ein throw back auf die 190 $ marke, gesünder wäre...

[aldeboni]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 32.903.788 von sw4a am 31.12.07 10:58:27

Kursziel 218-220 wird wohl ziemlich schnell erreicht .. kann dann hinauf gehen bis zu 235-250 .. bin sicherlich gespannt auf das was wirklich passiert ..

[kep]

All you seem to hear about lately is Apple, and frankly, when a stock is so widely discussed and owned you have to start thinking about whether it is reaching a peak. That said, the stock is a
AAPL peaked its last sizable run in early November and fell back hard as its new products did not inspire a lot of new buying and it failed to announce a stock split. Before that it had made us a great pile of money on the run from its September breakout. After that drop, however, we were not looking elsewhere, but instead looking at an opportunity for more positions ahead of what was going to be an Apple Christmas. It bounced off the 90 day SMA in November, testing that level one session and then jumping back up. We missed that move, but we knew there was more upside. So, we put in a new buy for when it came up off the 50 day EMA, the support it held at and worked laterally on top of as it regrouped from the disappointment and prepared for the next move higher.

It jumped higher on 11-26-07, showing a solid volume jump as it gapped higher, tested intraday, and then resumed the move. That is when we bought in with some stock positions at $175.11 and some January $170 strike call options at $14.95. The options were a bit expensive but we bought in the money because we were looking for a rather quick \\\'holiday\\\' play and wanted a lot of bang for each dollar the stock moved. By buying in the money we were able to get a higher delta and thus more movement in our options when the stock rallied.

It did rally. The next session Apple jumped $5.41. It added $4.07 the next day. The following session AAPL gapped higher to $187.34, rallied a bit to $187.70, but then started to waffle. A great quick break higher; just what we were looking for. We banked part of our option position, selling some calls for $21.15 or a 41% gain ($620/contract). Not bad for less than a week\\\'s work.

After that move we expected a pullback, and Apple did come back to the 10 day EMA to test, but then it gapped higher again on 12-5, rallying $5.69 that session, then adding $9 over the next two sessions. We thought about taking more gain off the table, but we still had another 15 days before Christmas. We waited, but AAPL struggled a bit, unable to hold the 10 day EMA on its next test of the run. A quick intraday trip to the 50 day SMA on 12-18, however, set the bottom for the final pre-Christmas move. It rallied 16 points in 4 sessions, pushing to a new all-time high. The day after Christmas it rallied once more but then faded, showing a doji on the candlestick heading toward the close after it tapped but could not push through psychological resistance at $200. That can mean a run is over, and with the nice gain in the stock we decided it was time to lock in some more gain. We took part of the 13.5% stock gain when we sold some stock at $198.90, and we sold the rest of the January options for $30, banking a 100% gain ($1505/contract) on those positions. Now THAT is a holiday rally, exactly what we were looking for from a leading stock that would benefit greatly over the holiday buying season. As it is, it easily paid for Christmas around here.

[sw4a]

Hallo!

Ich bin in diese beiden Calls investiert.

CB5ZNQ

mit Ziel 180 im Dez. 2008, also sehr konservativ mit einem netten Hebel und

CB8NCQ

als Knock-Out 174,18 Abstand zu Knock-Out momentan 12,84 %

Ich rechne auch mit einem gewaltigen Anstieg in den ersten beiden
handelswochen im Januar, KZ 218 - 220 USD.

Wann genau ist die Messe?

Euch allen einen Guten Rutsch und ein erfolgreiches und gesundes
Börsenjahr 2008!