Dow Jones kracht! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[[e-mail]]

Denke, daß der DJIA weiter kracht.
Das High von (intraday) 10890 ist wieder weit weg.
United Technologies, GE haben gute Quartalszahlen gebracht.
Was ist passiert? Der Dow, inkl. der genannten Werte ist abgestürzt. Sogar United lag mit -0.3% darnieder. Genauso GE, obwohl sie die Erwartungen um 1 ct. übertroffen haben.
Also: Auf gute Nachrichten fällt die Börse (3M), auf schlechte fällt sie noch viel mehr! Siehe Ebay, Alcoa.
Zudem: Im letzten Jahr lagen die Umsätze im Dow sehr hoch, noch höher als vorm 01.01.00. Dow legte in den letzten 27 Monaten knapp 50% zu, wie gesagt bei hohen Umsätzen.

Schlechtes Zeichen.

Die Käufer wollen wieder raus.

Und die Zinsen? Die FED hebt sie an. Trotz der weiterhin bestehenden Wirtschaftserholung, bzw. Konkunktur wird die Kohle knapp. D.h. kein Geld mehr für Aktienkäufe, die Käufer der letzten Monate warten darauf, daß ihnen andere ihren Kram bei weiterhin guten Nachrichten abkaufen.
Aber das Gegenteil passiert: Gute Nachrichten, weiter fallende Kurse, nicht nur bei GM, deren Gewinnwarnung ja wohl nur noch Formsache war!

Die Konjunktur läuft zwar inen Staaten, trotzdem: Die Chancen der Rezession sind vorbei. Liquidität wird knapper und knapper.
Greenspan steigert die Zinsen ----> Crash.

Die eingepreisten Erwartungen sind fast nicht mehr zu erfüllen, es ist zuviel eingepreist.

Die Baisse beginnt, fahren sie mit (frei nach Heitkamp).
Und dann noch die Sache mit dem Iran. Oh mein Gott, Bush hat ihn zwar links (Irak) und rechts (Afghanistan) eingekesselt, aber dort holt er sich zwei blaue Augen und ne gebrochene Nase. Demokratie in die Welt bringen ... Wolfowitz, Du Genie. Schau Dirn Irak an. Wenn schon Demokratie nicht im Inland klappt, kann mans ja mal im Ausland versuchen. Viel Spaß!

Selbst so Schrott wie Puma, Adidas (richten sich alle nach den amerikanischen Vorgaben, da braucht man sich gar nichts vormachen), Apple, Google werden ihr blaues Wunder erleben.

[Metafreak]

Ich stimme dir absolut zu - ist auch meine meinung
(wollte ich nur mal gesagt haben)

[Euwaxtrader]

ganz genau !!

und zum Stichwort: Konjunkturerholung

....woher soll die den kommen es gibt keinen einzigen Grund für eine Konjunkturerholung

Analysten, Banker + Fondsmanager quatschen immer im Einklang, damit ja keiner schlechter dasteht.

Dreht die ganze Scheiße, springen alle gleichzeitig raus !

zum Thema Apple könnte ich die ganze Seite füllen ( bei 13$ zu teuer und jetzt bei 70 $ der klare Kauf ) oooh Gott

[Uebelkraehe]

Steigende Zinsen und eine vonvielen Analysten gesehene Blase machen euinen Crash für eine beschlossene Sache.
Vor einem Einstieg wird schon seit Monaten gewarnt.
Insbesondere Tec-Dax und Nasdaq gelten als extrem überteuert.

[PINTOGrande]

Crash bedeutet bis zu 25%minus.Also Dow Jones demnächst bei 7800 Punkten.7800 Punkte bedeutet für mich
WELTWIRTSCHAFTSKRISE in dem labilen Zustand sich viele Länder zur Zeit befinden.Würde bedeuten das die japanischen und europäischen Aktienmärkte 30-50%
verlieren würden.Dafür wird die FED schon sorgen das so etwas nicht geschieht.Zumindest dieses und nächstes Jahr.
Irgendwann ist das Ganze aufgeblähte Weltfinanzsystem nicht mehr zu halten.Eine Weile wird es aber noch gut gehen.

[Schinderluder]

Greenspans Versprecher deutet auf 2007.

[Leono01]

Das durfte auch bald ne Rolle spielen, Stichwort Ölpreis!!!

Gemeinsamer Plan zum Angriff auf Iran
Bei der Suche nach Atomanlagen im Iran arbeiten Spezialisten der USA eng mit dem israelischen Geheimdienst Mossad zusammen

http://www.wams.de/data/2005/01/23/392351.html?s=1

[PINTOGrande]

Von wegen Crash.Wenn Scröder und Eichel den Geldhahn aufdrehen werden wir Wachstum die nächsten 2-3 Jahre bekommen ähnlich wie in China.
-------------------

STAATSFINANZEN

Der Schulden-Kanzler

Von Sven Afhüppe, Wolfgang Reuter und Michael Sauga

Die Regierung will ihre Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten: Statt zu sparen, soll der Staat die Nachfrage stärken. Der Finanzminister hat seinen Widerstand aufgegeben, die Stichworte für den Kurswechsel liefert der keynesianische Wirtschaftsweise Peter Bofinger.



REUTERS
Kanzler Schröder: Neue Lust am Geldausgeben
Es soll ein Auftritt werden, ganz nach dem Geschmack des Kanzlers: das glamouröse Ambiente einer internationalen Wirtschaftskonferenz, ein hochkarätiges Publikum aus Industriebossen, Bankern und Polit-Prominenz, Journalisten und Fernsehteams aus aller Herren Länder.

Wenn Gerhard Schröder an diesem Freitag vor dem Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos auftritt, will er sich einmal mehr in seiner Lieblingsrolle als erfahrener Staatsmann und erfolgreicher Wirtschaftslenker präsentieren. Deutschland, so wird er seinem elitären Zuhörerkreis darlegen, habe die notwendigen Strukturreformen der Agenda 2010 bewältigt, seine Industrie auf Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Effizienz getrimmt und die Ökonomie auf einen neuen Wachstumskurs gebracht. Die Republik, so die Botschaft, ist längst nicht mehr der kranke Mann Europas. Es geht wieder aufwärts im Lande. Deutschland - da bewegt sich was.

Von Bedeutung ist dabei nicht nur, was der Kanzler sagt, sondern auch, was er nicht sagt. Keine drei Jahre ist es her, da hätte Schröder seine Rede mit einem Loblied auf solide Staatsfinanzen begonnen. "Haushaltskonsolidierung ist Voraussetzung für einen handlungsfähigen Staat", pflegte Schröder damals zu sagen. Oder: "Ich finanziere keine Programme zu Lasten unserer Kinder und Kindeskinder."

Heute gibt der Kanzler eine andere Melodie vor, die er in der vergangenen Woche in einem Namensbeitrag für die "Financial Times Deutschland" so deutlich machte wie nie zuvor. "Eine richtige Finanzpolitik kann nicht allein am Einhalten der Drei-Prozent-Defizitgrenze gemessen werden", heißt es jetzt. Und: Kurzfristig könnten "staatliche Maßnahmen zur Anhebung des Wachstumspotentials" wichtiger sein als die "Konsolidierung der öffentlichen Haushalte".

Hinter der neuen Rhetorik steht ein grundlegender Politikwechsel. Was im vergangenen Sommer mit der Abkehr vom restriktiven Haushaltskurs Hans Eichels begann, ist mittlerweile zur neuen Doktrin für die gesamte rot-grüne Politik geworden. Von den Staatsausgaben bis zur Lohnpolitik: Sparen und Kürzen sind out. Die neue Zauberformel lautet: "Stärkung der Binnennachfrage" - wenn es sein muss, eben auf Pump.

Mit dem Kurswechsel will Schröder vor allem eines schaffen: gute Stimmung für die anstehenden Landtags- und Bundestagswahlen. Nachdem die Regierungskoalition in den Umfragewerten wieder zur Opposition aufgeschlossen hat, sollen die Wähler um jeden Preis bei Laune gehalten werden.

Steuererhöhungen, wie sie zuletzt die Kieler Ministerpräsidentin Heide Simonis forderte, sind tabu, genauso wie neue Rotstiftprogramme oder zusätzliche schmerzliche Sozialreformen. Schon diskutieren führende SPD-Wirtschaftspolitiker mit Kanzleramtschef Frank-Walter Steinmeier über ein staatliches Ausgabenprogramm für Bildung und Infrastruktur, falls die Konjunktur in diesem Jahr schlechter laufen sollte, als erwartet.

Der zuständige Finanzminister Hans Eichel hat seinen Widerstand gegen den neuen Kurs aufgegeben. Noch vor wenigen Monaten versuchte er, an seinen alten Sparkonzepten wenigstens teilweise festzuhalten. Jetzt stellt er sich opportunistisch an die Spitze der Bewegung. Im Gefolge der Berliner Politikwende steht Eichel immer stärker als Verlierer da.

Wie sehr sich die neue Tonlage mittlerweile durchgesetzt hat, zeigt nichts so deutlich wie der jüngste Jahreswirtschaftsbericht. Das Papier, das Bundeswirtschaftsminister Wolfgang Clement am Dienstag dieser Woche vorstellen wird, liest sich von der ersten bis zur letzten Seite wie eine Rechtfertigung der neuen Ausgabendoktrin. Überall ist in dem 90-seitigen Bericht vom "Beitrag der Binnenkonjunktur zum Wachstum" und von neuen "Spielräumen in der Finanzpolitik" die Rede.

Zwar gehen die Regierungsökonomen davon aus, dass die Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr mit 1,6 Prozent fast genauso stark wächst wie 2004. Als Voraussetzung dafür aber gilt, dass auch die Binnenkonjunktur anspringt. Im Zweifel, so geht aus dem Bericht hervor, müsse die Regierung die Nachfrage eben mit neuen Schulden stützen - allen europäischen Sparvorschriften zum Trotz.

Durchgesetzt hat sich die neue Marschrichtung bereits im Bundeshaushalt 2005. Entgegen allen öffentlichen Bekundungen des Finanzministers ("Ich halte am Konsolidierungskurs fest") wächst die Lücke zwischen Ausgaben und Einnahmen des Bundes ungebremst weiter.



Uni Würzburg
Wirtschaftsweiser Bofinger "Verschuldung ist per se nicht schlecht"
Seit 2001 stieg der Fehlbetrag in der Kasse von 23 Milliarden auf 40 Milliarden Euro im vergangenen Jahr an. In den nächsten zwölf Monaten wird das Defizit gar auf die Rekordmarke von 45 Milliarden Euro klettern, lediglich verschleiert durch mehr als 20 Milliarden Euro Privatisierungserlöse.

Die gesamten Bundesschulden summieren sich damit zur kaum vorstellbaren Summe von mehr als 800 Milliarden Euro. Allein in der rot-grünen Regierungszeit sind neue Kredite über mehr als 150 Milliarden Euro hinzugekommen. Schröder wird zum Schulden-Kanzler.

Geknausert wird im Bundeshaushalt nur noch bei den öffentlichen Investitionen. Die rasierte der Kassenwart während seiner Amtszeit um fünf Milliarden Euro, mit dem Erfolg, dass in diesem Jahr nicht einmal mehr neun Prozent der Bundesausgaben investiert werden - ein historischer Kahlschlag.

Der Ausweg, das fehlende Geld für neue Schulen, Straßen oder Universitäten durch weitere Einschnitte bei Rentnern oder Arbeitslosen hereinzuholen, hat in der Regierung derzeit keine Chance. Ein härterer Sparkurs, so die allgemeine Auffassung, würde die Konjunktur nur noch weiter dämpfen.

Eichel und Schröder haben andere Finanzquellen im Blick, zum Beispiel die Goldreserven der Bundesbank. Zwar scheiterte der Finanzminister jüngst bei seinem ersten Versuch, den Goldschatz der Notenbanker zu heben, am Widerstand von Bundesbankchef Axel Weber. Doch das soll nicht das letzte Wort bleiben.

Schon liebäugelt der Kanzler mit der Idee, die Frankfurter Geldpolitiker öffentlich mit dem Argument unter Druck zu setzen, sie gefährdeten mit ihrer Blockade die Zukunfts- und Bildungschancen der jungen Generation. Die Bundesbank sei nicht mehr "der unangefochtene Fels in der Brandung", so ein Regierungsberater. Eine Machtprobe mit den Herren des Goldes könne erstmals gewonnen werden.

Die neue Doktrin des Geldausgebens gilt auch für die Tarifpolitik. Bislang plädierten rot-grüne Wirtschaftspolitiker stets für Lohnzurückhaltung, wenn sich Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschafter zu ihren Verhandlungsrunden in Wirtschaft und Verwaltung zusammenfanden. Das ist vorbei.

Jetzt ist etwa der SPD-Wirtschaftspolitiker Rainer Wend der Auffassung, dass "die maßvolle Tarifpolitik der vergangenen Jahre die Gewinne der Unternehmen beträchtlich gesteigert hat". Deshalb, so sein Kollege Klaus Brandner, seien in den nächsten Jahren wieder Gehaltssteigerungen drin: "Mit Lohnzurückhaltung bringt man die Wirtschaft nicht nach vorne."

Eine gute Gelegenheit, die neue Linie umzusetzen, bietet sich schon bald. In wenigen Wochen beginnen die Tarifverhandlungen für die 2,6 Millionen Beschäftigten des Öffentlichen Dienstes. Während sich Finanzminister Eichel für eine Nullrunde stark macht, hat Innenminister Otto Schily, der für den Bund die Verhandlungen führt, intern bereits eine andere Marschroute ausgegeben. Er ist bereit, bei den Löhnen eine Schippe draufzulegen.



DER SPIEGEL
Schlechter Stand
In ihrer neuen Lust am Geldausgeben wollen sich Schröder und seine Getreuen von niemandem stören lassen, schon gar nicht von der Europäischen Kommission und den sogenannten Maastricht-Kriterien. Die Vorschriften, die Ländern mit einer Defizitquote von mehr als drei Prozent empfindliche Strafen androhen, hatten die Deutschen den übrigen EU-Ländern einst als Preis für die Währungsunion abgetrotzt.

Heute sind die Regeln der Regierung lästig, seit sie nun schon zum dritten Mal in Folge die Maastricht-Marke gerissen hat. Und damit nicht ausgerechnet im Wahljahr 2006 ein peinliches EU-Strafverfahren gegen Deutschland droht, will der Kanzler die Kriterien aufweichen. So sollten die Ausgaben für Bildung, Forschung, Innovation und Entwicklung bei der Bewertung der gesamtstaatlichen Neuverschuldung positiv berücksichtigt werden.

Eichel, früher stets gegen Korrekturen am Stabilitätspakt, hat klein beigegeben. Die Reform des Stabilitätspakts sei "ein Herzensanliegen des Ministers - sowohl ökonomisch wie auch politisch", sagt Sprecher Stefan Giffeler.

Ob daheim oder in Europa: Viele Ökonomen sehen die neue deutsche Finanzpolitik mit Skepsis. Zwar halten auch einige Volkswirte die starren Stabilitätskriterien, die kaum Spielräume für Konjunktursteuerung lassen, für verfehlt. Doch zugleich warnen sie vor den Risiken einer neuen Schuldenspirale. Schon heute zahlt der Bund fast ein Sechstel seines Etats für Zinszahlungen. Nimmt er noch zusätzlich Kredite auf, steigt dieser Anteil in den nächsten Jahren weiter.

Vor "Wachstum auf Pump" warnte etwa Bundesbankpräsident Weber erst vergangene Woche im Haushaltsausschuss. Er machte deutlich, dass im kommenden Aufschwung die Zinsen steigen und damit auch die Finanzierungskosten der Kredite in die Höhe schnellen. Statt vom kurzfristigen Segen irgendwelcher Investitionsprogramme zu träumen, empfahl Weber, "noch stärker zu konsolidieren".

Solche Ratschläge hört die Regierung nicht gern. Während der Bundesbankchef dem Kanzler mit seinen stabilitätspolitischen Bedenken auf die Nerven geht, findet Schröder wachsendes Gefallen an den ketzerischen Thesen des Würzburger Währungsexperten Peter Bofinger. Dessen Positionen, veröffentlicht in einem Buch unter dem an Ludwig Erhard erinnernden Titel "Wir sind besser, als wir glauben - Wohlstand für alle", wirken wie eine Blaupause für Schröders Wechsel zu einer nachfrageorientierten Finanzpolitik. "Anstatt alle Energien auf das Sparen zu konzentrieren, wäre Hans Eichel gut beraten, sich intensiv Gedanken darüber zu machen, wie man das Wachstum in Deutschland über die Nachfrageseite wieder in Gang bekommt", schreibt Bofinger. Für den Professor ist deshalb "Verschuldung per se nicht schlecht".

Der umstrittene Ökonom könnte schon bald höhere Weihen erlangen. Bereits im vergangenen Jahr hätte der Kanzler Bofinger gern zum neuen Bundesbankchef gemacht. Doch Eichel legte sein Veto ein.

In Kürze aber könnte sich eine neue Gelegenheit bieten. 2006 muss die Regierung einen Nachfolger für Otmar Issing benennen, den deutschen Vertreter im Direktorium der Europäischen Zentralbank. Nach Planspielen der Regierung könnte Bundesbankchef Weber auf diesen Posten nachrücken. Dessen Job wiederum würde dann für den Nachfragetheoretiker Bofinger frei.

Für den Kanzler hätte eine entsprechende Rochade viele Vorteile, nicht zuletzt im Ringen um die Goldreserven der Zentralbank. "Geldpolitisch" gäbe es "keinen Grund mehr, die Goldbestände zu halten", befindet Bofinger. Sinnvoller wäre es, "das Geld in Bildung und Humankapital zu investieren".

Besser könnte es der Kanzler auch nicht formulieren.

[tupper]

Na denn: Let´s Party! Vielleicht ist es für lange Zeit die letzte. - Aber danach haben wir ja wenigstens Zeit, unseren Kater auszukurieren.

Wir versaufen unsrer Oma ihr klein Häuschen...!

[PINTOGrande]

Wie auf der Titanik.Die Musik spielte.....

[Euwaxtrader]

Geldhahn aufdrehen....wie denn ??????????????

[tupper]

Die Auswirkungen kreditfinanzierter staatlicher Maßnahmen zur Anhebung des Wachstums aus der Zeit nach Erhard kennen wir inzwischen zur Genüge: Absicherung der Pfründe und Schnäppchen für das Großkapital und Hasardeure - und dem Volk zeigt man zum Schluss die leeren Taschen und fordert zu gemeinsamen Anstrengungen und Bereitschaft zu Verzicht auf.

[tupper]

"Tony Blair hat sich mit seiner Frau zusammen ein Haus für 5,1 Millionen Euro gekauft. Die Zinsen für die Hypotheken betragen im Monat rund 17 000 Euro. Das ist fast das gesamte Monatseinkommen des Premiers."

So was würde ich vielen Köpfen in Berlin auch zutrauen - oder rechnen die vielleicht genauer, wenn es um das eigene Geld geht?

[KlingerP]

Tonys Frau Cherie verdient als Anwältin ein vielfaches
von Tony, ganz anders als Doris mit ihren Hundeknochen also keine Panik.

[lisa46]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[KlingerP]

#15 Merhaba!
Wer braucht denn in Deutschland noch Bildung, wo guckst Du?
Sterbender Markt!.
Wir brauchen mehr Dönerbuden und Videoten Shops!
Daran ändert auch dein mindestens 359. Posting zu der siechen Klitsche nix.
Gibts einen Thread, den du noch nicht vollgekottert hast, damit?

[KlingerP]

nanu, wer hat denn da den Biltrain push von lisa46, der mal unter #15 stand, so brutal gelöscht? Jetzt passt nix mehr...

[[e-mail]]

Morgen sind J&J und Merck dran.
J&J hat schon in den letzten Tagen nachgegeben. Merck hat sowieso schon hausgemachte Probleme.

Dennoch: Der Kurs erholte sich um 20% von 25 USD auf ca. 30 USD.

Heute wieder das gewohnte Bild. Die Futures lustig im Plus, und dann, ja dann in den letzten 45 Minuten gings doch um 0,2% nach unten.

Reine Manipulation. Umsatz heute wieder sehr hoch.

Nur eins geht mir nicht ausm Kopf.
Der bevorstehende Krieg mit dem Iran. Bush ist ein religiöser Fanatiker, er beschwört sein Volk geradezu mit Floskeln auf sich ein. Seine Wiederwahl wurde pompös wie der Triumphzug eines ruhmreichen Imperators im alten Rom gefeiert. Fehlte nur noch, daß Saddam Hussein hinter seinem Cadillac hinterhergeschleift wurde.

Er ist ein Psychopath. Nach dem Rücktritt der Taube Powell übernimmt nun Rice das schwer zu steuernde Ruder des US-Außenpolitik-Flugzeugträgers. Bin Laden wird nie gefaßt, er ist ja über weite Ecken ein guter Freund vom Bush-Clan.

Rumsfeld ist reiner Machtpolitiker. Für ihn ist ein Tropfen Wasser (oder Öl, das ja noch billiger ist als Wasser) mehr wert als ein Liter Menschenblut.

Das Thema Iran wird zur Zeit noch nicht gespielt. Aber das kommt noch. Vermute mal, so Ende 2005.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Granville sees trouble ahead for Dow

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Joe Granville is bearish on stocks and bullish on gold. Maybe you should care.

...

Granville was once probably the best-known of all investment letter writers. His "sell everything" message in January 1981 triggered a market crash that made him a household name.

...

Russell noted respectfully that Granville currently expects "an ultimate move under Dow 9,700 this year, putting the market in a drastic freefall back to the March 2003 lows [i.e., the 7,400 range] with no help in sight."

...

Currently, Granville`s worrying about "MAJOR TROUBLE AHEAD" -- because of what he sees as a major head-and-shoulders top in the Dow.

"We are currently seen building on the right shoulder, which currently sees the Dow peaking at 10,640," he said, adding that would be "300 points below the March 4 head."

htt*p://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={D042D49D-A007-4794-A91C-53B74471BF98}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbs

[Frank67]

[posting]17.073.901 von peter.wedemeier1 am 30.06.05 13:44:56[/posting]Shorts im Dow jetzt aufstocken. Was spricht dafür, was dagegen.

Dafür:

1. Der Kursverfall der letzten Tage hat zu keinerlei Wechsel in der Stimmung der Anleger geführt.

1. Das PC-Ratio liegt weiter im Keller, sinkt sogar noch !!!

2. Die Intelligence Bullenquote ist weiter gestiegen, die Bullen-Bären Differenz liegt bei stattlichen 36 %!!!

3. Der Dow Transport underperformt den Dow Jones
(6 Monate ca 2,8% 3 Monate 4,5%)

Dagegen:

1. S&P Banking Index outperformt den Dow Jones deutlich
mit über 5% in drei Monaten

2. DJ Transport Index hat einen Doppelboden gebildet und ist von dort stark gestartet.

3. Hohe Anleihebewertungen, dadurch DJ rel. günstig
Leitzinsniveau steigt zwar, aber nach wie vor moderates Niveau.

Fazit: kurzfristig noch fallend, wg. Psychologie, aber kein massives Abrutschen.

BITTE UM DISKUSSION !! Danke F67

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die Entscheidung lautet nach meiner Meinung, welches schlimmer für den US Aktienmarkt ist, ein hoher US-$ oder ein hoher und höherer (in der Zukunft) Ölpreis. Eine Kombination von beidem wäre mit Sicherheit eine Katastrophe für den US Aktienmarkt!

--->Stagflation ist Gift für den Aktienmarkt!

Wir werden eine Fortsetzung von dem Primärtrend bei den internationalen Aktienmärktem sehen und der ist nach unten gerichtet.

Sobald der DJIA unter die 10.000 gefallen und dieses durch einen Fall bei dem Transports unter die 3.400 bestätigt wurde; werden wir eine sehr unglückliche Investmentcommunity sehen - einige von Ihnen werden mit Sicherheit in Panik geraten!

mfg

[Frank67]

[posting]17.097.820 von peter.wedemeier1 am 01.07.05 11:27:39[/posting]Peter, das Problem ist: Wenn ! Was, wenn nicht? Die Märkte neigen seit Jahren dazu, Fehlsignale zu produzieren.
Der Fall unter die 10.000 könnte die Stimmung schnell so verschlechtern, dass der Ausgang zu ist und die Kurse wieder steigen. Sieh bitte in beide Richtungen.

Die Gefahr der Stagflation sehe ich durch die Ölpreise auch. Der "hohe US-Dollar" ist relativ zu sehen. Erst machte der niedrige USD "zu schaffen", jetzt der hohe.

Das klingt wie Stoff für Permabären.

Habe hier noch Argumente pro und Kontra Dow Absturz:

Die schlechte Performance eines der wichtigsten Dow-Werte, nämlich 3M ist grottenschlecht. Das könnte ein Vorläufer, ein Riss in der Fassade sein.

Das Nova/ursa/Ratio was die Positionierung der Kleinanleger anzeigt ist recht bärisch, das spricht gegen nachhaltig fallende Kurse,
man sollte aber nie einen Indikator isoliert betrachten.

[peter.wedemeier1]

SHOCK CHART!

We have just posted two astounding charts on the www.peoplenomics.com site that demand further public awareness: Program Trading on the NYSE for the week June 20-24 is reported as 76.3% of all trading volume! A program trade is defined by the NYSE as "Program trading is defined as a wide range of portfolio trading strategies involving the purchase or sale of 15 or more stocks having a total market value of $1 million or more." As we see if, if you buy or sell on the NYSE, your odds are about three out of four that you will be buying or selling to a machine program!

At the same time program trading has been soaring as a percent of exchange "handle" the public is again heading for the exits:

We`ll let you figure out for yourself what declining public "handle" in the markets means -

our take on it is as an extremely pessimistic sign of what`s to come this fall.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

ETF`s Driving Program Trades

A knowledgeable Wall Street insider has provided us with an interesting insight into what`s driving the huge increase in program trading we documented this week ( see previous story below). He writes from 125 Broad Street that:

"from Monday: program trading
the public is a lot of program trading in the form mutual/index fund, and pension fund asset allocations. But the newest phenom is etf`s. If you buy a etf, the etf has to buy the underlying stocks, they do it through programs"
OK - great insight - thanks! Now all I have to worry about is what happens when all the EFT`s need to raise cash at the same time when the public gets nervous and wants out...

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

All Sorts of Companies Face Pension Shortfalls
Proposals Before Congress May Force Firms to Pump Even More Cash Into Plans
By STEVEN D. JONES, The Wall Street Journal

Airlines struggling to meet promises to their retirees aren`t alone, though headline scanners may be forgiven for thinking so. In fact, companies of all different stripes are having problems with their retirement plans - and proposals being debated by Congress could ground more pension plans.

Consider: While four major airlines pensions plans collectively face a shortfall of nearly $13 billion, another 30 companies in manufacturing, trade, agriculture, finance and insurance are "underfunded" by $60 billion, according to Greg Kelly, Washington affairs analyst for Susquehanna Financial Group.

The tally for airlines doesn`t include United Airlines parent UAL Corp., which last week turned over to taxpayers, via the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., responsibility for plans with nearly a $10 billion deficit.

The proposed reforms, which cleared the House Education and Workforce Affairs Committee last week, could compel companies to pump even more cash into their retirement plans. The bill could next go to the House floor or be woven into other legislation. Among its provisions, the bill aims to stop companies from projecting long-term health in their pensions when the hear and now suggests otherwise.

UAL, for example, told shareholders as recently as 2000 that its pension plans were "fully funded" on a long-term basis even though those same plans were billions of dollars in deficit on a "termination-liability basis," a description of what would happen were the airline to walk away from its responsibility to it -- which is what happened.

[peter.wedemeier1]

U.S. stocks drop as oil hits record high over $61

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid on Wednesday as crude prices flew to a record high above $61 a barrel, fueled by fears that two tropical storms would pinch supply.

The surge in oil prices capped a three-day run that drove NYMEX August crude futures up to settle at $61.28 a barrel -- up nearly $5, or more than 8 percent since June 30.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 101.12 points to end at 10,270.

...also drove down [were] the shares of several major oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.

"It`s a very skittish market, with crude trading above $60 a barrel," said Michael Driscoll, senior managing director and listed trader at Bear Stearns, in New York.

Rising oil prices tend to weigh on stocks because they raise corporate costs for everything from trucking services to many industrial chemicals and also eat into consumers` discretionary spending by driving up gasoline prices.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtm…

mfg

[[e-mail]]

Hallo Peter, hallo Frank!

Heute die Terroranschläge in London, und was passiert:
DJIA steigt bei hohen Umsätzen! Sehr hoch fürn Juli.

Die Blase am Rentenmarkt ist immer noch nicht geplatzt.

Von wegen 3M ist Mist. Der Wechsel vom CEO zu Boeing riß den Kurs um knapp 5% nach unten.

Und heute? 3M war die ganze Zeit im Plus, selbst nach Handelsbeginn, als der DJIA abgab, mit 0,1%. Am Handelsschluß sinds gar 1,4% Plus, aber: Nur 3,8 Mio. Umsätze.

Die Börse will steigen, die Anleihebesitzer müssen erstmal
erfahren, was bluten ist. Solange steigt der DJIA. Leider.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Happy Hype Day! Look for the market to go up on reports that go like this one: "Hiring around the country picked up slightly in June with employers adding 146,000 jobs -- helping to push the unemployment rate down to 5 percent, the lowest in nearly four years."

Well, not quite. You know about the Birth-Death Model which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to "correct" it`s employment figures, right? So this morning I get a summary from a hawk-eyed reader who sees BLS headlines and then goes looking for the statistical chain which has been jerked to get the numbers reported:

"BLS says 146,000 new jobs in June 05, but 184,000 of those jobs came from the CES birth-death model.

The CES model must take into account all those new independent contractors created when employees get canned by GM and so many others."

If you doubt and need the source this statistically hip reader cited, check the following BLS chart: (see URL)

To our way of reading, that would imply that the economy lost 18-thousand jobs in the period, not the 146,000 gain which the wet nurse media report. And our favorite number, the U-6 table under Alternative measures of Labor Underutilization reflected a jump from 8.6% to 9.3% from May. That said, now you know how to read the official press "happy talk" release about June`s job numbers

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Thursday July 14, 2005 – Issue 3196 "Independent View of the News"

We erred in yesterday’s missive by not listing the date of the comments attributed to James Cramer. The remarks are from his 2/29/00 column, which was two weeks before THE TOP of the bubble. We listed the link but we should’ve posted the date. The point is at major tops strident and unabashed bullishness with excuses for poor fundamentals pervades the Street.

Even though there was a greater than expected decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, energy products fell sharply yesterday afternoon. Media stories attributed the declines to an increase in distillate inventories. This is totally wrong and is another example of financial writers parroting information from some trader source without doing the work and checking the facts.

The reason for the decline in oil and energy products is the unexpected 1% contraction in oil consumption from China in Q2. The NY Times: "A sudden and mysterious drop in China`s oil consumption helped to push down the International Energy Agency`s estimate on Wednesday of global demand for this year. After growing 11 percent in 2003 and 15.4 percent last year, China`s overall oil use declined 1 percent in the second quarter from the comparable quarter a year earlier, the agency said." The IEA lowered its estimate of China’s oil consumption growth to 5.5% from 7.1%. US demand was lowered to +0.8% from 1.4%. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/14/business/worldbusiness/14o…

We have been remiss in not mentioning another important factor for the explosive rally than commenced last Thursday – option expiration. We regularly note that a triple-digit DJIA rally usually precedes expiration in the window marked by the Thursday of the week prior to expiration WEEK (6 sessions prior to expiry) and the Wednesday of expiration week.

---> Anmerkung: Wenn dieses der Fall sein sollte, dann kann es sehr gut sein, das der Dow Jones Industrial Average am kommenden Montag crashen wird!

After the 1987 Crash, regulators and the US Congress became extremely concerned about the role of derivatives in the market, particularly at expiration. The ‘boys’, which at the time were program traders and option arbs, started playing their games on the day, or two, before expiration.

During the late ‘80s when sell imbalances on expiration threatened to produce a huge stock market sell-off, the program trading community and related traders would collectively intervene and absorb the sales.

In the early ‘90s, the Wednesday prior to expiration became known as
‘Weird Wednesday’ because wise guys would exercise copious amounts of in-the-money OEX options (either puts or calls) just before the close. This would render option arbs massively short or long;
forcing them to cover the next day. This pushed prices in the direction that favored the manipulators.

Back then, we had a few conversions with a staffer from Rep. Markey’s (D-MA) office. Markey then headed the Congressional oversight subcommittee on markets. The manipulators were told point blank that if they did not ‘cease and desist’ the Weird Wednesday gambit, Congress would take action.

So now the machinations take place far enough in advance of expiration that few ‘experts’ even notice the regular triple-digit DJIA rally in the 2 to 6 sessions that precedes expiration.

Numerous articles have appeared that higher than expected taxes receipts have trimmed the deficit by about $100B. Of course econobulls and Bushies attribute the higher tax receipts to a ‘booming economy’.

Last week we noted that in the Q1 GDP report, disposable income increased only 0.4%; so it can’t be wage growth. Yesterday’s NY Times illuminates: "The biggest jump was not from taxes withheld from salaries but from quarterly payments on investment gains and business earnings, which were up 20 percent this year. That was similar, though much smaller than a sharp rise in tax revenue during the stock market boom of the late 1990`s, which was followed by plunges in revenue when the market bubble burst. But many independent analysts cautioned that the improvement, though notable, could prove ephemeral and that it did little to eliminate much bigger fiscal problems just over the horizon." In the late ‘90s, capital gains from the bubble increased tax receipts; now it’s real estate.

"In addition, while a lot of the increase in tax revenue flows from the improving economy and higher incomes, part of the jump stemmed from a special factor: the expiration of a temporary tax break that allowed companies to write off their investment in new equipment much more rapidly than normal.

That tax break reduced revenue by about $61 billion in 2004, but it merely postponed taxes that companies would have to pay once their equipment was fully depreciated."

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

mfg

[DeltaComet]

soso der große crash steht mal wieder bevor.
ich bin mir sicher daß er nicht kommt
warum?
zu erst mal hat es seit 100 jahren kein jahr mit ziffernende 5 gegeben, daß mit minus geschlossen hat!!!!
dieses jahr stehen wir aber bisher vom jahresanfang bis jezt im minus. fazit: die kurse haben dieses jahr noch aufholbedarf. oder glaubt jemand, daß ausgerechnet diesmal diese gesetzmäßigkeit durchbrochen wird?

zweitens gibts im moment mehr aktien die steigen als aktien die fallen.
gestern haben 120 aktien an der nasdaq ein jahreshoch erreicht, ledigich 28 ein jahrestief.

drittens das put-call-ratio.
auch hier ist man im moment viel zu pessimistisch.

viertens zu mr. granville. eine schulter-kopf-schulter-formation gilt wohl immer noch nur dann, wenn diese dann auch nach unten aufgelöst wird, was im moment noch nicht geschehen ist!!!
genausogut kann ich sagen, ich sehe eine cup with handle formation und somit steigen die kurse! wenn das ath bei 11750 punkte im dow jones überschritten werden sollte dann kann es ein kursfeuerwerk geben, daß ähnlich dem vor fünf jahren sein könnte.

[peter.wedemeier1]

GLOBAL MARKETS-U.S. stocks, dollar, gold, oil, bond prices lower

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended a seven-day rally to close lower on Monday after disappointing earnings from Citigroup. Oil prices, Treasury bond prices, gold and the dollar all declined.

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 65.84 points...

Crude oil futures slumped on NYMEX as Hurricane Emily diminished as a threat to U.S. Gulf of Mexico production...

The dollar slipped across the board as a capital inflows report showed selling of U.S. stocks by foreigners in May, suggesting uneven interest in dollar-denominated assets...

U.S. Treasury bond prices fell on Monday as negative technicals were exacerbated by expectations of optimistic testimony to Congress this week from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan... The benchmark 10-year notes fell 12/32 for a yield of 4.22 percent -- its highest since early May...

U.S. gold futures finished a shade lower...

[Frank67]

[posting]17.251.258 von DeltaComet am 15.07.05 22:10:08[/posting]Also dass das Put-CallRatio pessimistisch ist, ist Quatsch !!!!!!!!

In den US hat das PC-Ratio den niedrigsten Wert nach der Jahresanfangshausse erreicht. Ohne Indexoptionen liegt der 21T Durchschnitt bei 0,535 !!!. Er war seit 22 Handelstagen nur 2x über 0,6. Der Duirchschnitt stürzt weiter ab und müsste rein mathematisch in den nächsten Tagen einen Boden ausbilden, es sei denn, wir sind schon in der Kaufpanik, und das tägl P/C Ratio fällt in den nächt. Tagen unter 0,5.

Mit einer längeren Korrektur muss gerechnte werden, wenn auch mit keinem Crash.

[[e-mail]]

Hallo zusammen,

nein, einen Krach wird es nicht geben - noch nicht!

Warum?

Die Rentenmärkte sind noch nicht gekracht. Bei den Renditen aber nur eine Frage der Zeit.

Die Aktien steigen und steigen, die Anleihebesitzer werden
nervös, und alle Analysten sind doch so positiv gestimmt für Anleihen, und nix passiert.

Da muß man doch wohl Anleihen verkaufen und Aktien kaufen, denn die steigen ja. Sind zwar schon gut gestiegen, aber das geht noch weiter.

1999 ist der Rentenmarkt Anfang Januar gekracht. Ganze 14 (!) Monate später erst die Nasdaq, während sich der DJIA erstmal hielt. Das war ja auch ne Jahrhunderthausse.

Diesmal wird es keine Megahausse, deshalb sehe ich auch kein ATH im DJIA bei 11750, wies hier einer schrieb.

Das kommt dann bei der nächsten Hausse.

Also: 6 - 12 Monate nach dem Crash am Rentenmarkt trifft es die Aktienbesitzer.

Und dieser Crash ist nicht mehr weit entfernt.

[Frank67]

[posting]17.293.406 von [e-mail] am 21.07.05 00:41:15[/posting]Klingt nicht unplausibel. Welche Gründe könnte es für einen Anleihecrash geben? Sag jetzt nicht, weil die Halter dann in Aktien umschichten, das geht ja nicht crashartig.

[DeltaComet]

also leute, macht euch nicht so viel gedanken

schaut einfach mal auf den kursverlauf der 10-jährigen us-treasury notes.
bei prophet-finance einfach kürzel $tnx eingeben.
hier sieht man ganz deutlich wann aktien eine chance haben zu steigen und wann nicht!
von 1965 bis 1982 war ein anleihentrend, der sich erst 1982 umgekehrt hat. und genau in diesem jahr begann dann der höhenflug der aktien!
solange sich die kurse der zehnjährigen us- treasury notes sich unter einer fallenden 50 und 100 tageslinie befinden, kann dem aktienmarkt nicht viel passieren!
von 1965 bis 1982 aufwärtstrend der treasury, aktien haben keine chance! nach 1982 fast nur noch fallende kurse, das ergeben steigende aktienkurse.
hervorragende vorhersagekraft hatte der $tnx im crash von 1987. hier überschritten die kurse eine woche vor dem crash die durchschnittslinien und gaben zwei tage nach beendigung des crashs wieder ein kaufsignal!
was besseres kann es nicht geben.
im moment stehen die ampeln weiterhin auf giftgrün.
der aktienmarkt wird wohl weitersteigen, ob wir es nun wollen oder nicht, im nachhinein hat sich der kursverlauf von 2000 bis 2002 einfach nur als kleine zwischenkorrektur im langfristigen aufwärtstrend erwießen.
das bei 11750 punkte im dow jones schluß sein soll bezweifel ich darüberhinaus auch sehr stark.
denke sogar daß nach überschreiten des momentanen ATH noch eine beschleunigung im aufwärtstrend eintritt, der dow kann in dieser übertreibungsphase dann locker bis 20000 punkte maschieren.

[peter.wedemeier1]

HOLLYWOOD COINCIDENCE?

Jul 23, 2005 - FreeMarketNews.com

by Anthony Wile

"Cinderella Man is about a famous boxer who was very successful throughout the 1920s, put away a great deal of money and then lost it in the Crash of ’29."

http://www.freemarketnews.com/nview.php?nseq=572

Wile berichtet über zwingende Eindrücke nachdem er zuletzt Cinderella Man und Charlie und die Chocolate Factory gesehen hatte. Seine Erzählung über die große Depression ist alleine schon sehr bedeutend und eine Warnung an die, die sich bisher nicht darauf vorbereitet haben.

Hollywood`s reduzierte Abhängigkeit von Gewalt und gewaltreiche Themen ist sehr lobenswert und man kann spekulieren ob der Irakkrieg dabei eine Rolle gespielt hat.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

DAX 28.000! Wow! wie wäre es mit DJIA 60.000?

Nun mal im Ernst diese Aktienmärkte (DJIA, DJTA, Nasdaq) befinden sich weiterhin in einem Bearmarkt!

Wir haben die Kommentatoren vom Fernsehen und den anderen Medien (sogenannte Experten), die uns erzählen wollen, wie großartig alles ist. Die meisten von Ihnen sehen auf die Wirtschaftsdaten und wollen uns weiß machen, das alles gut aussieht.

Die Averages (DJIA, DJTA) setzen Ihre Warnung fort, aber nur sehr wenige verstehen diese Warnungen. Der große Absturz steht uns erst noch bevor! und nichts wird diesen Absturz verhindern können. Also, denkt mal einen Moment darüber nach.

Wenn die Dinge alle so gut ständen mit dem Aktienmarkt, warum wird dann weiterhin Liquidität in die Märkte gepumpt, während die Zinsen am Steigen sind und jedem ständig gesagt werden muß, das alles gut ist?

Warum ist es so, das die Öffentlichkeit ständig von den Kommentatoren vom Fernsehen und den anderen Medien (sogenannte Experten) bombardiert wird?

Warum ist es so, das Greenspan so viel Zeit damit verbringt um die Märkte nach oben zu reden?

Warum ist es so, das sie die Wirtschaftsdaten manipulieren?

Warum ist es so, das sie revidierte Daten zu den Daten, die sie gerade vorher am gleichen Tag heraus gebracht haben, heraus geben, gerade bevor die Märkte schließen und wenn sie damit rechnen müßten das die Märkte auf diese Daten negativ reagieren würden?

Warum ist es so, das wenn wir uns tatsächlich in einen Bullmarkt wie in den 80ern und 90ern befinden sollten, das diese Art von Dinge damals nicht auftraten bzw. nicht in solch einer Art und Weise?

Könnte es sein, das sie die wahrhaftige Verfassung von den Aktienmärkten (DJIA, DJTA, Nasdaq) kennen und das dieses der Grund von diesen Aktionen ist?

Nein mit Sicherheit nicht! Sie würden uns doch nicht anlügen wollen! Alles ist gut und sie tun dieses aus keinem Grund, was auch immer!

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Robert Rhea meint, das jede Phase von dem Bearmarkt durch bedeutende Rallies geteilt wird. Er formuliert dieses folgendermaßen:


“Each of these phases seems to be divided by a secondary reaction, which is often erroneously assumed to be the beginning of a bull market. Such secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory.”

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Know When to Fold Them? by Rob Kirby - July 29, 2005 -

"It is often said that America`s pass time is the grand ole game of baseball. After listening to Financial Sense`s Jim Puplava [July 23/05] interview Mr. John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics fame, I wonder if baseball, as a pastime, has perhaps not been replaced with fudging numbers. For more than 20 years, Williams has been making a living providing clients [the list includes individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies] with forecasts and analyses of official U.S. economic reports.

Williams claims that most widely watched and reported economic numbers are extremely misleading the way they are currently reported due to biases built into their calculation. He claims that these biases have increased over time and tend to understate inflation and overstate economic growth. In the interview, Williams outlines the history of the `corruption` of these economic reports and explicitly outlines just how far we`ve come in short time by revealing the differences between today`s current method of reporting to what the same selected numbers would have been prior to the Clinton Administration [Bush 41].

Highlights of the interview included the following revelations:

---> CPI which was recently reported at an annual rate of approx. 2.5% would equate to a minimum of 6% or more in pre-Clinton methodology.

---> The unemployment rate which was recently reported at a heralded 5% rate would be more in the line of 12% on the same basis.

---> Gross Domestic Product [GDP] which was recently reported in the 3.5 - 4% range annually would be closer to 0% [zero] using pre Clinton measures.

---> Budget deficit numbers being reported by the U.S. government would be increased by a magnitude of 10 fold if business accounting standards were adhered to.

Williams suggests this `crooked number keeping` is likely to result in a

---> hyperinflationary depression

somewhere down the road.

Williams points out that these economic reports were initially devised as a means to protect people – like the CPI was initially tabulated post WWII to act as escalator clauses in auto union contracts. He goes on to outline how each successive administration has co-opted the methodology used to tabulate different economic series. He goes on to point out that one of the very biggest reformers to the methodology used in reporting inflation numbers was/is none other than Sir Alan Greenspan who rewrote the book on measuring consumer price inflation. [RK emphasis]
Williams reveals that Greenspan along with Boskin allegedly made no bones about admitting that the alterations to the CPI tabulation methodology were consciously done to decrease the government`s financial obligations [payments] to Social Security which contains clauses/escalators tied to the cost of living [CPI]. The upshot of the changes in CPI reporting as it relates to Social Security, according to Williams, is checks that currently get mailed to Social Security recipients are roughly one third less than what they would otherwise have been.
Williams goes on to explain how the official keeper of inflation statistics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [BLS] has gasoline prices currently up 6.9% per cent year over year while the government`s own Energy Information Agency currently shows gasoline prices up about 40% year over year.
Williams points out that pundits like to cite the core inflation stats - less the volatile elements of food and energy. He goes on to say that `core` inflation was only conceptualized as a means of looking at components other than food and energy periodically to see how elements outside the food and energy complex were behaving in isolation, but NEVER intended to supplant the more important headline rate as is customarily practiced now on Wall Street and in the main stream media.
The list of tricks that are employed to alter inflation reporting numbers alone include the following..."

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

WOW NACH DER PRE-CLINTON METHODOLOGIE:

IN DEN USA

---> CPI 6% oder mehr!!!

---> Arbeitslosigkeit 12%

---> GDP 0%

---> Budgetdefizit das 10-fache!!![/B]

Bernd Hellmeyer von der Bremer Landesbank hat vollkommen Recht, wenn er bei n-tv sagt, das er von dem aktuellen Reporting überhaupt nichts hält, weil es nicht der Realitäzt entspricht.

Greenspan und die Fed kochen Ihre BÜcher um die Märkte in die Irre laufen zu lassen. Fragt sich nur, wie lange so etwas gut gehen kann!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Japan`s Nikkei @11.981,80 (+41,6)!

Die Weltaktienindizes befinden sich auf Mehrjahreshoch`s und erreichen die gewünschte Verfassung von Überschwang.

Sollte der Iran jetzt von den USA oder Israel angegriffen werden, dann möchte ich einmal diese Indizes erleben, in was für einen Steilflug nach unten sie dann übergehen werden.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Baltic Dry Index – Troubled Waters Ahead?

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index)is issued every business day by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The Baltic Exchange had its early roots in the Virginia and Baltic Coffee House in London’s financial district in 1744. Every business day Baltic executives canvass shipping brokers worldwide and ask the rate to book various cargoes of raw materials on various shipping routes around the world. Variables are considered such as type and speed of the ship and length of the voyage. Answers are then molded into the BDI.

The BDI provides an assessment of the price to move the world’s major raw materials by sea and insight into the global shipping market. It is an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade. A large demand for shipping means rising rates, and slack demand means lower rates. The BDI doesn’t deal with ships carrying finished goods. It only deals with precursors to production, so the index seems to be a better indicator for economic growth and production and is devoid of speculative content. No one books an ocean freighter on a hunch! When bulk shipments of cement, grain, iron ore, etc. are arranged with a shipping company, there is economic activity planned at the end of the line where the raw materials are delivered.

>>.....The index registered a blow-off high near year-end 2004 at the 6250 level and plunged. An attempted rally in the first quarter of 2005 failed and since mid-April the BDI has dropped 63%. Over a 52-week period, the index has plunged 72%.

We already know that the European economy has slowed down appreciably. Britain alone has just reported the slowest economic growth in 12 years and the German economy is terribly anemic. Also, in Asia the Chinese economy has become overheated, and there is concern for the banking industry and possible negative impact on the Chinese economy.

The BDI chart seems to be predicting a significant slowdown in global economic activity which, for the world’s stock markets, would mean the end of the cyclical bull market and a return of the secular bear market, and probably with a vengeance. For the world’s capital markets, the dropping BDI should, in theory, mean lower interest rates. But in the debt-ridden US, a declining economy will cause an unprecedented real estate implosion for starters, which logically would cause interest rates to rise as defaults soared and the mood of Americans changed from fearless to fearful.

For the world’s gold devotees, fear has been the missing ingredient, which has kept the precious metal in the doldrums while real estate has been in the limelight. If fear gets a grip on world markets, gold will suddenly become the preferred chaos hedge.

Unless the BDI has suddenly become skewed by something which is not apparent, like an undocumented large supply of new bulk shipping tonnage, the collapse of the index since April is predicting a drop in global economic activity and trouble ahead for investors.

Something appears to be amiss globally, and it could become dangerous to one’s financial health to ignore the BDI’s precipitous decline. Troubled waters may be ahead!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Downs/aug042005.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ein weiterer Tag wo bei dem DJIA es abwärts geht!

[peter.wedemeier1]

Fed G.19 Consumer Credit Disaster

"Holy cow, Market Man, did you see that?" asked Fed Boy.

"See what you alarmist, paranoid nutjob?" replied Market Man.

"The Fed just released the June Consumer Credit report and it shows the annual rate of change for Consumer debt climbing at 11 1/2% annualized for revolving debt and 6.5% annualized for non-revolving debt," said Fed Boy, pointing at the Fed`s latest online confessional released a mere one hour before market close - which they tend to do on bad news days.

"Nothing to worry about, like I said, you little twit. It`s all just the Joker trying to play another nasty trick on us," cautioned Market Man.

"You mean the Joker who still calls himself Alan Greenspan?" asked Fed Boy.

"Shut up or I`ll see you get sent to Mauritania to fight for the neocon`s next oil. Now help me buy some calls to keep this thing from tanking in the final few minutes of trading today."

"You think that AP story about job growth 9-minutes before the bell will help?"

"Shut up and buy calls, twit. Hey...who`s that guy with the laptop over there furiously typing?

(boom, kapow, socko @#$%^&*)

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

----------------------------------------------------------

ggü. Jahresanfang / seit dem Hoch

$DJIA -1,6% / 04.03. 10.940,55 (-3,5%)
$DJTA -0,76% / 07.03. 3.876,13 (-3,73%)
$SPX +2,02% / 03.08. 1.245,04 (-1,5%)
$COMPQ +1,2% / 02.08. 2.218.15 (-1,81%)
$NDX -0,12% / 14.12. 1.627,46 (-1,59%

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

"Die jedermann für sich selbst - Einstellung":

Dieses kann man anhand der obszönen Saläre erkennen, die an die CEO`s bezahlt werden und der Ungleichheit zwischen diesen und dem durchschnittlichem Arbeitslohn.

So eine Einstellung gab es nicht vor 50 Jahren oder vor dem letzten Bürgerkrieg, wo jemand wie Henry Ford es wollte, das seine Arbeiter gut bezahlt werden, so das sie sich es leisten konnten seine Autos zu leisten.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

$WTIC aktuell $63,65 +1,4 oder +2,24%
$TSX aktuell 10.635,64 +85,13 oder +0,8%
$INDU aktuell 10.553.01 -5.01 oder -0.04%

Das Öl kann heute wieder stark ansteigen. Die Börse in Toronto kann aktuell um 85 Punkte zulegen, während der Dow wieder im Minus liegt. Öl boomt heute also wieder und man kann den $TSX um Länge voraus gegenüber dem Dow Jones Industrials Average sehen.

Peak Oil wird somit bestätigt während ich dieses schreibe und dieses zum Ende von der Hurrikan Saison. Dieses sollte ein schrecklicher Herbst für den Dow Jones Industrials Average werden!

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Ein wirklich schrecklicher Herbst, wenn der DJIA sich zurückzieht und die Märkte ziehen sich nun einmal zurück. Auch wenn jemand an die Zahlen glaubt, die von der US-Regierung herausgegeben werden. Man denke hierbei nur einmal an Bernd Hellmeyer von der Bremer Lnadesbank und was er von diesen Zahlen hält!

Dieser schreckliche Herbst ist eine Vorhersage für die US-Wirtschaft wenn der Ölpreis noch höher steigt. Wie hoch wird er steigen, bevor die US-Wirtschaft zum Erliegen kommt (---> Stagflation)!.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Is the Stock Market Predicting Happy Times?
by Clif Droke
August 8, 2005

The growth of corporate profits has coincided with the decline in incomes for the average American working man and the yawning chasm separating the haves and the have-nots continues to widen. Steven Rattner, writing in the August 8 edition of Business Week, notes that the top 1% of earners take a larger piece of the economic pie now than at any time since the 1920s. "Over the past 30 years, the share of income going to the highest-earning Americans has risen steadily to levels not seen since shortly before the Great Depression," writes Rattner.

Rattner tells of how the disparity between rich and poor has progressively widened over the past 30 years, with the share of income garnered by the top 10% of Americans growing by nearly a third, while the share of the top 0.01% of households with an average income of nearly $11 million has multiplied nearly four times. The blame for this situation, according to Rattner, is in part globalization (the emergence of the Global Economic Order), the employment of cheap labor in emerging markets to the exclusion of American labor, and an increasingly regressive tax code.

To the above list we can probably add the periodic resurgence of stock bull markets, since they tend mainly to the aggrandizement of the haves and to the penury of the have-nots. This has been eloquently described in George Brockway’s magnum opus, "The End of Economic Man." In his book, Brockway details how the stock market can only rise by sucking in more and more money, which is thereby denied to the producing economy.

"The bull market that started in 1982 took five years to absorb a trillion dollars," wrote Brockway in 2000. "The bull market that started in 1988 absorbed a trillion dollars in less than four years and is well on its way to six trillion more...but the devastation, disorder, and despair resulting from the extraction of $7,000,000,000,000 from the producing economy in less than twelve years challenge our capacity to understand."

He concludes, "The economics of the rational greedy economic man failed our forebears. It is failing us. We fail ourselves if we refuse to understand that failure.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2005/0808.htm…

[peter.wedemeier1]

AN ASSET ALLOCATOR`S NIGHTMARE
by Doug Wakefield
August 4. 2005

The world of modern finance refers to diversification as the use of non-correlating assets. The College of Financial Planning’s Investment Planning textbook teaches that, “Diversification and the reduction in unsystematic risk require that assets’ returns not be highly positively correlated. When there is a highly positive correlation, there is no risk reduction. When the returns are perfectly negatively, risk is erased. This indicates that combining these assets whose returns fluctuate exactly in opposite directions has the effect on the portfolio of completely erasing risk.”

In short, assets that move in step with each other have more potential risk than assets that move in opposite directions from each other. My purpose here is only to say that true diversification can be useful in reducing certain types of risk.

Our common sense and life experiences tell us as much. We have all heard the old saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” We all agree that if we have five people each carrying a basket with one egg, we have less chance of all of them getting broken than if we had one person carrying all five eggs in one basket. The problem is that the current situation appears to be more like 5 people running a race with their legs tied together on a rainy day after the staying up all night at a keg party.

**** insert charts ****

So as you can see from these numbers, with the exception of the 30-year government bond, over the last 2 years all of these indices have exceeded the highest 20-year average returns of the S&P 500.

To see what has caused all of these indices to move in step with stellar returns for the last two year, we need look no further than the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve. We are floating on a sea of liquidity. From June 28, 2003 to July 18, 2005 the money supply, as measured by M3, has grown by $836 billion dollars from $8.913 trillion to $9.749 trillion. 6 From the indices presented here and the GDP and other numbers coming from the government, one would think that we have, once again, inflated our way to victory. As for the debt that has been created along the way, (don’t worry) we’ll inflate that away too.

However, oddly, since the first Federal Funds Rate increase was announced on June 30, 2004 and in spite of its inflationary monetary polices, the 30-year government bond is up from 105.61 to 115.31. This is what we would expect to see if the Fed had cut interest rates or kept money supply growth to a minimum. As we are all aware, the Federal Reserve has raised its rate from 1% to 3.25%. When government bonds go up almost 10% in an environment where the Fed Funds Rate is increasing, this does not bode well for future economic prospects. The predominant theme in history has been that when an economy has grown weaker, bonds prices have gone up. When inflation concerns are tame and business prospects are bleak, we see a flight to the safety and returns of the government bond. When the economy picks up, business prospects expand, and inflation heats up, bond prices fall. So while the stock market churns out high returns, the bond market does not seem the least concerned with inflation or a stronger economy. Once again, something is wrong.

So based on our common sense, modern financial theory, and decades of price history on the S&P 500, we know that the real world is screaming a story far different than pretty pie charts of average annual returns produced to give investors a false sense of security. Coloring the eggs differently will not make investment portfolio returns safer. A lot of eggs are about to be broken.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0804d.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Dow Jones Industrials Average:

Habt Ihr gestern die Intraday-Bewegung von dem Dow Jones beobachtet?

Wie die Spieler herumgehüpft waren. Sie gingen vom Erdgeschoß auf das Dach um zum Schluß im Keller zu landen. 3 Schwünge während eines Tages von gut jeweils über 100 Punkte! um dann endgültig mit über 20 Punkten im Minus zu enden.

Wie dieses weiter gehen wird, werden wie sehen!

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Stocks fall; tech companies lead drop
Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:42 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday as technology bellwether Dell Inc. slumped on a lower sales outlook and crude oil topped $67 a barrel, worrying investors that it may slow the pace of earnings growth.

Shares of Dell dropped 7.8 percent... its biggest one-day drop in almost four years...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 102.22 points...

Nasdaq was down 28.15 points, or 1.29 percent, at 2,154.32, its biggest one-day drop since the end of June.

...Also weighing on stocks were data showing a worsening trade deficit, higher-than-expected import prices and a drop in consumer sentiment, fueled by higher gasoline prices.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=business…

Die Aktien haben noch einen tiefen Fall nach unten vor sich auf Kursniveaus, die wir vor 17 Jahren gesehen haben.

Gold reaches for 17-year highs as funds buy

Reuters, Aug 12 -- Gold is on track to reach its highest since June 1988 as fund money pours back into the market, triggered by dollar weakness and high oil prices, traders said today.

Bullion surprised many on Thursday when it jumped by more than two percent. The market then paused in Asia trade, before moving up a gear in early European business to strike a fresh eight-month peak at $449.30 an ounce.

Traders noted that gold had also jumped in euro terms, breaking back to €360 for the first time since early July.

"Gold seems poised to move higher over the very short term. Markets will remain volatile and trade erratically," Frederic Panizzuti of MKS Finance said.

Oil prices hit a fifth consecutive record high on Friday, topping $66 a barrel.

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/components/print.asp?id=72211

Statt zu denken das das Gold 17-Jahreshochs erreicht, wäre es ein anderer ein besserer Blick, wenn man erkennen würde, das das Gold für so lange Zeit unterbewertet war und das du das Gold gerade jetzt in unserer inflations-gefüllten Welt noch so billig kaufen kannst, auf dem gleichen Marktpreis wie vor 17 Jahren. Dieses ist nun ein Zeichen von einem wirklichen Bargain.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

`Real Money` Radio Recap: Gold Shines Through Selloff

8/12/2005 (TheStreet.com Staff) -- Stocks may be selling off, but Aaron Task says gold is glittering.

Once again sitting in for the vacationing Jim Cramer on RealMoney Radio, Task told listeners that Friday`s selloff is due to Dell`s lowered guidance and may not be the end of the world. Still, it`s a good opportunity to look at gold prices, which have been heading in the other direction, up more than 5% since last month to $445 an ounce.

"Armageddon is not around the corner," said Task, co-executive editor of TheStreet.com. "However, gold is a safe haven against financial distress and should be at least 5% of an investor`s portfolio."

Task reminded listeners that people have been flocking toward hard assets such as real estate since the bubble burst, and people need to remember that gold is also a hard asset worth picking up.

When everybody is buying gold, said Task, then it`s time to leave, but "we are nowhere near that point."

One way to enter the precious metals is to buy gold coins and put them in your safety deposit box.

..."Think about a pinch of gold for your portfolio and don`t panic."

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/funds/realmoneyradiowrap/1…

[peter.wedemeier1]

AUTUMN MELT-DOWN

"The Fed seems to do one of these pump-and-dump operations about every four years. The last was the 2003 51/2% FED Funds drop to 45 year lows of 1%. Previously was the 1999 Y2K credit expansion, which inflated the early 2000 Nasdaq bubble and led to the subsequent crash. The major one before that was the 1992-93 credit expansion, which culminated in the 1994 global bond market debacle. The process of leveraging up the system sends out a signal -- go forth and speculate. Buy stocks, bonds and houses, build buildings, leverage up your holdings. Take no thought for tomorrow. We are in a NEW PARADIGM. Swing for the fences. At some point, the leveraged Ponzi scheme collapses -- either as a result of a Fed tightening -- or it simply topples from its own dead weight of poor ill advised investments (malinvestments). Investment Balloons like trees can`t grow to the sky.

Both the Bond and stock Markets, the Real Estate and Commodity markets as well as the Economy are approaching that point. Even though long term interest have fallen and have only recently started to turn around since the FED started tightening over a year ago, it will indubitably be too much Fed tightening that once again upsets the apple cart. There used to be a rule "three steps up and a stumble" well we just had our 10th rate increase and there is increasing evidence of the beginning of involuntary de-leveraging. (The reason that its taking more than three steps before the stumble is because up until this week we were in negative interest rate territory)"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin081405.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Richard Russell:

My old friend, the late Elliott Janeway, one time business editor of Time magazine, once told me, "Dick, when the President is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble."

Well, right now, the President is in trouble. And the trouble is finally breaking out into the open. Strangely, it`s starting with a 48 year old woman name Cindy Sheehan, who`s son was killed last year in Iraq.

Sheehan has taken an anti-war stand just outside of Bush`s Crawford Ranch. She says she`ll stay there until the President meets her face to face. Since Bush has nothing to gain from meeting her, and a meeting could be a public relations disaster -- he`s staying away. He`s not going to be pressured by some 48-year old lady. But something has clicked. Suddenly anti-war groups are surfacing around the country.

The unbelievably cowardly Democrats up to now have avoided the whole Iraq situation. When cornered, they`ve come up with such lame answers as -- "Now that we`re there, I guess we should stay there until the war is won." But it looks increasingly as though the war is not going to be won. Meanwhile, US casualties continue to build, and the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate. Nobody knows how many Iraqis have been killed -- estimates run upward of 25,000. On top of that, Iraqi infrastructure has fallen apart. Electricity and drinking water are available only sporadically.

The Bush people`s desperate answer to the gathering mess is to pressure the Iraqis to come up with a constitution, any constitution, and to build a serviceable Iraqi police force. But the Bush people are in a no-win situation. If they stay in Iraq, the odds are that they`ll get nowhere except to build more casualties. If they leave, it will appear that they`ve lost, and Iraq will probably splinter and fall apart. Actually, if the Americans leave, it looks increasingly as though Iraq will dissolve into civil war.

Worst of all for Bush, the latest polls show that only 35 percent of Americans now believe that we should never have attacked Iraq in the first place.

Thus Bush`s dream of being "America`s War President" and of finishing what his dad failed to do -- is turning into a military and a political nightmare. Bush would have done well to study the "law of unintended consequences."

[peter.wedemeier1]

"George, is the global economy at the brink of a breakdown much greater than its predecessor in 1929? How do the current imbalances compare to those late Roaring Twenties` similar circumstances of consumer-level forward consumption, debt, overvaluation of assets, and industrial overcapacity? Will the devaluation and asset decay process at the end of the second 70 year sub-fractal - contained within the 140 year Second Grand Fractal cycle beginning in 1858 - be greater than at the end of its first 70 year sub-fractal?

A chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage has been replaced with eating out three of seven nights at the plethora of fast food and dining opportunities that `froth` the highways and typify the service type of economy the States have become. Three SUV`s and a Hummer distributed between a primary residence and an investment residence have superseded the two cars in a garage. Buy a radio or washer on credit has been bested with buy and buy with abandon everything imaginable with ubiquitously facilitated debt from refinanced or second mortgages based on the surety of ever appreciating house prices -the latter caused in part by fed fund rates 1/4 of the rates in 1928.

The evenly balanced declining and increasing annual GDP growth rates prior to 1929 have been replaced with continuous positive annual GDP`s growth rates during the past 45 years. The great creditor nation status of 1929 has been substituted with a beggar man debtor bravado country wearing only the emperor`s new clothes. Its treasury is writing bad checks against future income that can only be guaranteed if the remaining 57 percent of the US private (nongovernmental) work force becomes governmentalized allowing a Weimar type of hyperinflation. In short the consumer saturation point of 1929 looks very appealing against the very poor economic hand that America now holds. Consider America`s current financial balance sheet and thereafter consider how badly the unbalanced excesses of 1929 unfolded.

In the next nine weeks, data - which has always been there - will be re-recognized. GM`s and Ford`s junk bond status and their probability of default on a collective 450 billion dollars of debt will reappear. The thousand mirrors that reflect a single dollar in the derivatives markets will have key reflecting glasses broken erasing the image in 925. The housing bubble, that is so historically remarkable in its uniqueness in that virtually all know it to be a bubble, will crack. The microcosm of forward consumption in the last two months of the American auto business will witness the expected necessary microcosm of historically poor follow-on monthly sales. Major airlines will throw in the towel declaring bankruptcy and pension amnesty. Declining monthly GDP will receive attention. The real position of the individual debtor and the debtor country in the face of declining asset valuations and projected tax revenues will get its due. Fiscally impossible city and state governmental pension funds whose futures are tied to the equity markets and escalating real estate property values will have a viability reality check. For the first time in many years the concept of consumer retrenchment will be seriously and widely explored as a probable scenario.

The comparative initiating decay fractals at the secondary summit, with respect to March 2000, of US equity indices suggest a very remarkable primary revaluation. Watch the general trend and descent of the long term US note and bond debt markets as exiting money from equities and commodities flows into these long term debt instruments driving their interest rates lower. Gold has potentially only one more week before completing its maximal 12/30/30 weekly growth cycle with an abrupt devaluation. Opposite to gold, the dollar will transiently trend well. Expect the unexpected. Within this quantum fractal decay process, expect nonlinearity.

Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist.com/ "

http://www.urbansurvival.com

[peter.wedemeier1]

The truth about crude oil prices

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- On August 8, following a meeting on interest rates, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cited inflation fears, underpinned by record crude-oil prices, as the key reason for why core interest rates would not be cut.

...SARB cut its core rate progressively from 13.5% on June 13, 2003 (during a year when crude oil averaged $29 a barrel) to 7% on April 15 this year, when crude oil was well on the way to this week’s multi-decade record above $67 a barrel.

Measured in today’s money, crude was around $85 a barrel (the highest since 1865) during the 1980 crude crisis.

After the 1980 crisis, the world took a new look at energy efficiency; today it takes half as much energy to produce one unit of economic output (GDP, gross domestic product) than in 1980. But is it that simple? This week, the Wall Street Journal laughed off the US’s producer price index (PPI) increasing at a crudely annualised rate of 12%...

While the July figures for the US were scary to some, at TheStreet.com, James Cramer said that US inflation peaked with the "spike" in PPI. Investors should no longer be focused on inflation, Cramer argued, "they need to keep an eye out now for recession. Although we`re not in recession mode yet, we`re in deceleration mode."

For investors, the bellwether stock for measuring the impact of crude oil prices is Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retailer. On Wall Street, the stock price is down nearly 20% this year...

...many of its customers fall into the US’s blue-collar paycheck-to-paycheck market. But is modern inflation – or more precisely, its instruments of measurement - all it is cut out to be?

In the past ten years, the total cost of living in Britain has risen by just 14%. However, changes in individual constituents vary massively: school fees have increased 62%; hairdressing has risen 58%, holidays are up by 52%, and eating out is 33% more expensive.

It is the prices of mass-produced manufactured goods that have fallen enormously: prices for clothes are down by 42%, shoes by 31%, and consumer electronics by 63%. The price falls are almost fully attributable to the entry of the world’s “engine room,” China, to the world economy.

However, Chinese demand has increased prices for items where the world’s most populous country lacks legal infrastructure (benefiting financial services) or where the goods or services are non-tradeable (housing and education), or which must be partly or fully imported (crude oil being the leading example).

http://www.mineweb.net/columns/curve_ball/474011.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Privateer:

This is really a serious situation.

In the Bay Area of San Francisco, the official unemployment rate was, at the latest June 2005 figure, 5.1%. This was up from the official 4.6% rate which had been recorded for May. Such an unemployment rate is reflective of a prosperous part of the world.

Yet when Wal-Mart let it be known this week that they were looking for 400 people to staff their new store in the area, they had more than ELEVEN THOUSAND applicants. That`s twenty-eight applicants for every job on offer.

It is a well-known fact throughout the US that Wal-Mart does not offer high-paying jobs. Nor is there much in the way of "fringe benefits" attached to the jobs they offer. Indeed, Wal-Mart has long been the target of US unions for the paltry health benefits and low wages they offer.

How prosperous can a nation actually be, how robust can the economic "growth" of a nation actually be, when more than eleven thousand people line up to apply for 400 of the lowest paying jobs available in that nation? And how is it possible that such a thing could happen in a suburb of a major city in that nation which claims an unemployment rate of 5.1%?

The answers are, of course, simple. A situation in which eleven thousand people apply for 400 menial jobs is redolent, not merely of recession, but of actual DEPRESSION. It is a more eloquent indictment of the economic and financial policies of both government and banking system than any number of learned treatises on economics. It is also the slap in the face which reality always gives, sooner or later, to the official statistics by which governments seek to obscure the REAL state of the nation they govern. In such a situation, the claim that the unemployment rate is 5.1% is preposterous, and obviously preposterous.

[peter.wedemeier1]

U.S. durable-goods orders fall 4.9%
Broad July drop follows three straight monthly gains

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In a broad retreat after three straight strong months, orders for new durable goods decreased 4.9% in July, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

This is the largest decline in new orders since January 2004.

Orders were dragged lower by a 16.6% decrease in defense orders and a 20.2% drop in civilian aircraft.

The outlook for business investment also dimmed as core capital-goods orders fell 3.7%, the largest decline since last October.

The drop was sharper than expected. Economists had forecast a 1.5% drop in July durable-goods orders. See Economic Calendar.

The dollar was weaker and stocks slipped in reaction to the report.

Economists were generally unfazed by the decline.

The data on new orders and shipments of durable goods tend to be very volatile from month to month, so economists prefer to focus on longer trends spanning a quarter or a year.

"We do not see this decline as anything more than statistical noise at this point. Despite the 4.9% decline in July, over the last three months, durable goods orders have risen at a 17.0% annualized rate," said the economic team at Bear Stearns in a note to clients.

Durable orders in June were revised to a 1.9% increase from the 2.8% rise previously estimated. Durable-goods orders jumped 7.3% in May.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?tool=1&guid={F3C6F…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Stocks Tumble, Record Oil Price, Gold in Lock-down

Stock index futures were pounded lower in pre-market trading when the Commerce Department announced U.S. July Durable Goods Orders fell a whopping 4.9%, following consensus expectations for a decline of 1.5%. The dollar moved lower with the announcement Treasuries caught a bid to move interest rates lower with the weak economic news. When stocks opened for trading, the Dow Industrials fell 35 points in the first ten minutes, but the sell-off sure didn’t last long. Within an hour the Dow turned positive and the NASDAQ posted double-digit gains.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Time for the Big Picture
Weekly Review with Fernando Gonzalez
Online Trading Academy
August 23, 2005

Over the last several trading days, the market has come under pressure from the bears, after a couple of weeks of progress to new multi-year highs in the S&P500 and year-to-date highs for the Naz. Although looking at the big picture is nothing new to us here, I feel we are at an important juncture, and that its time to look into how the recent progress of the market fits into the realm of its larger design. As we will see this week, we are at quite an important phase in the long-term the market.
Many short-term traders believe that the big picture is not important in their trading. Few things could be further from the truth – that is, if your longevity or lifespan as a trader is something you would consider "important." The market is always changing. And the many times the market has changed behavior in the past is quite evident in its charts. You would not need to be an expert in technical analysis to identifying shifts in trends and changes in price action behavior. As a short-term trader, you will feel these changes directly, as your overall performance is greatly affected. This is true whether you see the changes in the long-term charts or not, one thing is for certain, you will be affected. The larger (in time-frame) the change … the bigger the effect will be on all participants, regardless of trading style.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/odonnell/2005/0823.…

[peter.wedemeier1]

GATA`s Bill Murphy (MIDAS):

"From Ron Lutka on the coming credit derivatives meeting:
Hi Bill,
SPECULATION
The apparent Fed Sept 15 meeting with 14 financial institutions is very suspect to my mind.
My understanding is a senior business executive and senior risk executive from each firm are asked to attend a meeting to address something as clerical and mechanical as unmatched trades. Who are the brain dead managing this part of the business? And the same problem apparently exists across 14 financial institutions? I would think phone calls and internal and external auditors could easily clean that up. If they can`t, then which executives authorized personnel to trade in these non-standardized instruments without putting basic business controls in place prior to commencement of business? And who is managing the daily, weekly, monthly reconciliation? And who authorized the continuation of trades after it was discovered trades were out-of-control? 14 financial institutions who cannot balance their books? Something does not line up.
In my opinion, the meeting as publicly described could be cover for the true intentions of the meeting which might be different than the publicly stated intentions. The true intentions might be to give "friends" notice of an upcoming major potential or real financial event in person rather than over the internet or phone lines that can be tapped into and heard by others.
What could such a possible upcoming major financial event be? A planned stock market crash? A violent change in Fed interest rates? A sharp decline in the USD (as Saudi Arabia pulls out assets)? The end of the suppression of the price of gold (I understand Deutche Bank is invited)? Disclosure of the seriousness of the problems at fannie mae or General Motors? The disclosure of serious hedge fund problems? Other? A combination of these?
The meeting might be to discuss a risk issue, but I doubt the risk issue is soley in the form of unmatched trades. And if it is, there are surely much larger unseen problems lurking beneath the surface in these financial institutions. RL
Nicely put, Ron.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

George Ure at www.urbansurvival.com:
Stockgate to Pop?
Some serious odors are developing around the financial industry`s practice of doing naked puts and calls (as the mood suits them) with stock they don`t own. And now, the Fed is calling a meeting on credit derivatives and pointing out how extreme the risk is. Some good reports are surfacing around the edges, but as we see if, the derivatives bubble, like it`s kin the housing bubble, may be too big now for regulators to do anything about other than try - as Alan Greedspan is - to manage the problem so when it pops it will be after his watch is over. That way he will go into the history books without footnotes like mine that will point out that he and his cronies are the reason the second leg down of the Second Depression will be so much greater than the first - it`s as usual a tale of lust and greed - and oh yeah, leverage to extremes.
Also worth seeing: The John Embry/Sprott Asset Management interview on gold."

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future
by Raghuram G. Rajan
Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF`s Research Department
Financial Markets, Financial Fragility, and Central Banking
A Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Saturday, August 27, 2005, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

"However, banks now require more liquid markets to hedge some of the risks associated with the complicated products they have created or guarantees they have offered. Their greater reliance on market liquidity can make their balance sheets more suspect in times of crisis, making them less able to provide the liquidity assurance that they have provided in the past. Clearly, some of the more sophisticated banks fully understand this. Whether they have adjusted fully for that great unknown, the behavior of other market participants, is unclear."

"Can we be confidant that the shocks were large enough and in the right places to fully test the system? After all, a shock to equity markets, though large, may have less effect than a shock to credit markets. In other words, can we be confidant that all losses are equal, or will some losses be more systemic than others? Perhaps Chairman Greenspan should be faulted for allowing only two mild recessions during his tenure. And perhaps we can sleep better at night if we pray, "Lord, if there be shocks, let them be varied and preferably moderate ones, so we can stress test our systems"."

http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2005/082705.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Richard Russell:

Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Alan ("Punch Bowl") Greenspan had the unmitigated gall to lecture the nation about the rise in home prices and the misguided willingness of investors to bid up the price of stocks and bonds and to accept relatively low rates of return while ignoring risk. Blabbed Greenspan last week at Jackson Hole, "Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes liquidation of the debt that supported higher prices." Russell translation -- what this egotistical little squirt is saying is that if investors get worried, they`re going to sell their securities and that`s going to puncture the debt balloon and lower the price of stocks and bonds.

Think of the incredible chutzpah of this man! Greenspan floods the markets with liquidity, sends short rates to generational lows. And then, when people rush in to speculate on money that is literally being given away, Greenspan issues a belated warning (he never uses the word "bubble") to the effect that people are not paying enough attention to risk -- this in the very atmosphere that Greenspan, himself, created (remember when he encouraged people to use adjustable-rate mortgages?).

With his term of office nearing an end and the possibility of a housing decline starting at any time, Greenspan at last week`s Jackson Hole ensemble, predicted that the nation`s housing boom -- and the consumer spending orgy that it has spurred -- was near an end. Russell translation -- "if the whole thing falls apart, I told you so. Hey, I`m on record here in Jackson Hole, saying that you people ran up the price of housing too far, you spent too much, you didn`t save anything, and now this boom is close to being over. So don`t blame me for anything that goes wrong -- you have been warned."

[peter.wedemeier1]

The Privateer:

The tide is turning... timing? very soon...

US High Tide:
There was still a total foreign net inflow of funds to the US to the tune of $US 72.1 Billion in June. That
was enough to cover the $US 58.8 Billion US June trade deficit. The problem is that the foreign inflow
of funds is now at high tide and the outflow of financial funds from the US has already begun.
The Start Of The Outflow:
This is shown by the fact, reported by the Fed itself, [/B]that foreign private investors actually sold down
some of their holdings of US Treasuries. They have turned into net sellers. Also, foreign investors
bought a minute $US 100,000 of US equities in June. Private Americans have begun to leave too, as can
be seen from the fact that they sent $US 7.9 Billion outside to the US and placed all of these funds in
foreign equities. These are Americans investing in “foreign” stock markets. Compare the magnitude of
these two flows of funds. Foreigners take up $US 100,000 in US equities in June while Americans send
$US 7.9 Billion of their own funds outside the US, placing them all in equities.[/B]
Where Did They Go? The ECB Knows:
It is typical, of course, that the world is inundated with undigested financial data. But if one knows where
to look, daylight appears. Such is indeed the case with the latest data from the European Central Bank
(ECB). Its latest data shows that in June, the EU had a NET foreign inflow of funds to the tune of Euro
105.1 Billion. Euro 61.5 Billion of that marched into European equities. The take up of EU corporate
debt paper made up the rest. In fact, over the past twelve months, $US 219 Billion in foreign funds have
flowed into EU equities, nearly four and a half times more than the $US 50 Billion of foreign funds which
flowed into US equities over that span of time. As a result, the German and French stock exchanges are
up 15 percent this year while the US stock markets are near stationary in their prolonged distribution
zones. This is the HIGH tide of foreign inflows of funds into the US. Now, foreign private investors are
no longer showing up to fund the US Treasury’s budget deficits. The last place where they ARE sending
their money is into US corporate debt. Worse, private Americans are now sending their own funds out of
the US into mainly Europe, but also into Japan and China. All this is the classical economic signal to make a solid note of. When foreigners are no longer showing up with their funds to invest in a nation, and when that nation’s own citizens are beginning to send their
funds out of the country, as Americans are now doing, the combination of the two is deadly.
Combine A Credit Expansion With An Outflow:
The enormous internal US credit expansion is, of course, an ongoing fixture of the US financial system.
Its effects and consequences can be seen in the huge and ongoing US trade and current account deficits.
It is this double deficit on trade and current account which foreigners, their Central Banks and all, have
been funding with their savings for these past five-odd years, the US piling up its foreign debts to match.
When a credit expansionary outflow of funds, as is the US case, is joined by an accelerating outflow of
funds by Americans themselves as well as foreign investors in US financial assets, then a new situation
arises. In this situation, the combined outflow of funds can cut right in under a currency. As the outflow
of US Dollars cuts across the world’s currency floors, it is sold for other nations’ currencies. That
process, which is now firmly underway, makes the US Dollar a candidate for a sudden and apparently out
of the blue massive dive in international value.
This is not only high tide for the US Dollar and the US financial system. It is also slack water, the period
just before the monetary tide starts to turn and flow out. The combination of two outflows of funds from
the US is now in place. All this combination needs to do is to accelerate slightly. Once that happens, the
US Dollar will be in deadly danger. That could ignite a global panic dash for all of the US exits.

mfg

[CeCoupe]

schnallt euch an , kauft amerikanische baumärkte. da fliegen milliarden.
Ce.(wer kann mir bei der suche helfen?)sorry.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Crime Pays
by Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
August 31, 2005

Last evening the Working Group on Financial Markets and The Gold Cartel began chipping away again at the foreign currencies like they did on Sunday night in preparation for this morning’s rape of the gold bulls. With oil headed for the moon and the damage in the US Gulf catastrophic (and quite negative for the US economy), the cabal forces went in for the kill and moved further to flush out the heavily long funds. The cabal’s motive was obvious and they used their usual See Spot Run tactic again. Look kindergarten American public:

"Oil is soaring to $70 per barrel, natural gas is going bananas and commodity prices are making new 25-year highs. However, this is not inflationary and of no real concern, just look at the falling gold price."’

Is that retarded, or what? The sick part is this is just how Planet Wall Street will report all of this. In addition, they will blame the speculators for the collapse of the gold price. It is beyond absurd.

Yet, it is even more Machiavellian than that. The last thing the Orwellians want is the US intermediate and long-term interest rates to soar in reaction to soaring inflation in the US.

They want to prevent, as much as possible, an economic/stock market debacle – which could easily kick in due to recent developments. Not only will sharply higher interest rates hurt the stock market, they will bury the real estate market with energy prices surging. Were gold to have soared above $440, it would’ve confirmed the inflation scenario and affected the interest rate picture, perhaps dramatically so. With gold collapsing, they can point to how these recent developments are negative for the economy and thus justify LOWER rates, which is what happened.

Today’s interest rate vehicle moves were most likely affected by early buying from the Caribbean Pirates, a.k.a. known as Fed monetization.

The ten-year note rose ¾ to 111 22/32.

The 30-year bond gained 26/32 to 117 ¾.

Both are substantial moves higher (lower rates) with US inflation rocketing.

What no one is explaining is that if the case for rates to fall was expected US economic weakness, why is the dollar so strong? There is no plausible explanation for the euro trashing except the one put forth by GATA – meaning its lowering was effected to bash gold and keep investors from fleeing US financial markets. It makes no sense to have the dollar rally so much with such economic turmoil in the Gulf and US interest rates sinking as they are.

This morning the Working Group on Financial Markets took the euro down to 121.70. This induced heavy fund gold selling on the opening, turning most all the gold moving averages bearish. The spec funds sold their longs with a vengeance. Gold Cartel Mission Accomplished. That is all they had to do. Once the gold selling deluge was under way, the euro rallied back to unchanged. When gold rallied $2 off its low and threatened to recover, they sent the euro right back .25 points. Once gold closed on the Comex, the euro rallied again. It was clear as could be.

It is now 2:29 CDT and the euro is on its high of the day at 122.24, up .03, with gold closed. This information re the dollar and gold (yesterday) was compiled for two reasons:

*It clearly lays out exactly how The Gold Cartel maneuvered their scam and is an FYI for you.

*When the US markets fall apart the public (and Congress) will be screaming for an explanation of what happened and why. MIDAS will hand them all the sordid details (who and when) over a seven year period which led to the market collapses. It will be handed to the Congressional investigating committees on a gold platter.

Yesterday gold printed $440 and was ready to rocket. Had gold been close to $440 today the price might be $455 right now with what oil and commodity prices did. Instead the lowlifes orchestrated an illegal raid to make sure gold would be annihilated just when it should have roared.

Worth repeating from yesterday’s MIDAS:

The bottom line for us:

The more reason for the gold price to go up, the more The Gold Cartel swings into action to make sure it does not do so. This latest obnoxious ramping up of the dollar, when all the news was negative for days, is proof of point.

Also as mentioned the past week, gold will not go through $440 like a normal market, because gold is a rigged market. It will blow through $440 or not at all. Today, it was the latter.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/murphy/2005/0831.ht…

[peter.wedemeier1]

THE DOW REPORT

Yes, during that 29 month topping process people also said that the Dow theory was no longer applicable. I was told that the cycles no longer mattered. We were in a new era and the stock market was “going to 36,000.” Well, the Dow theory told me that the market was sick and that 36,000 was a pipe dream. My cycles work, as documented in a 2001 article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine told me that the Industrials were going to 7,400 and that this would happen in the fall of 2002. Guess what? The Dow theory was correct and so were my cyclical projections.

Nothing has changed since 2002 to suddenly invalidate the Dow theory or cycles analysis. It is simply a necessary part of the “cycle” so-to-speak, that the masses think this way. William Peter Hamilton described Dow’s theory as “The Stock Market Barometer” because it looks forward at what is to come rather than back at what has already happened. The problem with the masses is that all they can see is what has already happened. Furthermore, the masses never have and never will truly understand the Dow theory, because that takes time and energy to learn. No, human nature is such that the masses always want to think that “this time is different” and that as a result the tried and true methods are no longer applicable because once again all they can see is what has happened and not what the “Barometer” is telling them.

[peter.wedemeier1]

THE COMING TRADE WAR & GLOBAL DEPRESSION

http://www.depression2.tv/nwo-2/archives/000139.html

[peter.wedemeier1]

Alan Greenspan changes key
Sep 1st 2005 | JACKSON HOLE
From The Economist print edition

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Fed Eyes Risk in Backed-up Derivatives Back Offices
Dan Wilchins - Reuters - September 6, 2005
NEW YORK - Snippits: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is looking into the credit derivatives market, but traders and regulators disagree about whether the market is a risk to the broader financial system or just encountering normal growing pains.
At issue is the processing of trades, an unglamorous area that is widely acknowledged to have become a problem as paperwork backlogs mount at dealers and hedge funds.
Credit derivatives, which investors can use to insure a company`s or country`s debt against default, have surged in popularity in recent years. But the market has grown so fast that players` trade processing systems have been unable to keep up, which has spurred the Fed and other regulators to meet with 14 banks and brokers on Sept. 15."

"Regulators and industry groups are clearly interested in fixing the back office for credit derivatives. In a speech in early May, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called back-office issues in credit derivatives a "significant problem," while the United Kingdom`s financial regulator, the Financial Services Authority, began looking into back office problems in February. The Counterparty Risk Management Group II, a group headed by Goldman
Sachs Chairman and former New York Fed president Gerald Corrigan, said in a report in July that trade processing problems demand "urgent industry-wide efforts.""

"The amount of outstanding credit protection has grown more than eight-fold over the last three years, to $8.42 trillion at the end of 2004. When any market grows quickly, unexpected problems in trade processing result. The stock market and interest-rate derivatives market have experienced processing problems in previous decades."

"Traders identified two problem areas in back-office operations for credit derivatives. The first is a lack of signed paperwork for trades."

The second problem area involves knowing who one`s trading
counterparties are."

Quelle: reuters.com

[peter.wedemeier1]

NOTHING SAVED FOR A RAINY DAY
by Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
September 1, 2005

"What America has succeeded in creating is not an economy impervious to “shocks,” but merely one which enables their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately, that date may have finally arrived. Do not attempt to ride out the coming financial hurricane. Seek higher ground."

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2005/090…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Fed in a Corner on Interest Rates

The interest rate spin in the mainstream financial press is all over the place. Some argue we need to stop the rate increases due to the economic damages created by the storm, while the Fed continues to get more and more bad news on the inflation front. Higher energy prices translate to less disposable income and put inflationary forces into play throughout the entire economy in manufacturing, transportation and service industries. From a year ago, gasoline is higher by 65%, heating oil is 70% higher and natural gas has gone through the roof with a 143% increase from last year. It looks like $3.00 gasoline for your car is going to look cheap compared to what your heating bill is going to look like with the cold Winter Season just a few months away.

The thing that bothers me the most about all the interest rate spin is the effect it is having on stocks and the dollar. Last week in the face of utter destruction, stocks rallied with a bunch of hype the Fed would stop raising interest rates. Today the dollar rallied on speculation the Fed would have to continue raising rates due to increased inflationary pressures. Stocks have continued their rally from last week, even though interest rates are beginning to move higher this week. This week, interest rates don’t matter as much, because supposedly, stocks are higher because oil and gas prices are coming down from their record highs. Go figure!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Sprott`s researchers connect the dots
Report suggests U.S. market manipulation is for real

NEW YORK -- A legendary bear may have turned bullish, sort of. But he and the authors of a remarkable new report still harbor suspicions something could end badly for investors.
Dow Theory Letters` Richard Russell was artfully qualifying his sudden bullishness on Thursday night. He`s just suggesting that "those willing to speculate" should buy Spyders, the S&P 500 tracking stock. And it may not work. Russell`s also making bullish noises on gold. And his comment that really got my attention late Thursday was this: "You can be sure that the central banks don`t want to see an upside breakout in gold. ... The primary trend of gold is bullish, however, and the primary trend is stronger than all the central banks in the world taken together. When gold`s time comes, gold will brush by the manipulations of the central banks and their friends, the gold banks."
This suspicion of covert market manipulation by governments in alliance with favored private-sector firms has been voiced with increasing frequency by Russell and other letters. Indeed, several letters muttered about suspicious late-day rallies as detailed in our June 27, 2002, column. Of course, it`s too wild an idea for most of the mainstream media. But now two respected figures in the Canadian investment industry, John Embry and Andrew Hepburn of Toronto`s Sprott Asset Management, have published a report, "Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam." It pieces together from published sources evidence that points to the existence of the long-rumored "Plunge Protection Team," an informal group of U.S. government agencies, stock exchanges, and large Wall Street firms. (The report`s downloadable from the firm`s Web site:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf For starters, the Sprott reports quotes former Clinton adviser George Stephanopoulos apparently confirming the group`s existence and revealing that the Federal Reserve directed large banks to prop up currency markets in the wake of the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998. The last episode Sprott thinks it has definitely traced was before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003. A U.S.-Japanese agreement to intervene to prevent any financial crisis during the war was announced by a Japanese official, perhaps because the government intervention in markets is openly admitted in Japan. The U.S. never acknowledged such an accord.
Sprott doesn`t necessarily oppose government intervention in principle -- the apparent interventions after 9/11 or the 1987 crash, for instance -- but says such intervention requires "the most stringent safeguards and transparency."
Instead, Sprott asserts that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market."
All this raises two problems. First, possible corruption. As Sprott puts it: "There can be no doubt that the firms responsible for implementing government interventions enjoy an enviable position unavailable to other investors. Whether they have been indemnified against potential losses or simply made privy to government policy, the major Wall Street firms evidently responsible for preventing plunges no longer must compete on anywhere near a level playing field."
Second, there`s the matter of ultimate breakdown. Says Sprott: "Displaying markedly low volatility, the Dow hovers comfortably above the 10,000 mark. Yet with severe trade and budget deficits, rising interest rates, and stubbornly high oil prices, the reasons to be bearish on U.S. equities are numerous. Strangely, the market has an uncanny ability to maintain its footing when serious declines threaten. ... This curious trading activity is suspicious to say the least." If that`s right, economic reality may eventually intrude and, as Russell says, "brush by" the manipulators -- and the investors misled by them.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4D6EA397%2…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"But he and the authors of a remarkable new report still harbor suspicions ABOUT MARKET MANIPULATION- something THAT could end badly for investors."

[peter.wedemeier1]

Fed Calls in Banks on Derivatives Paperwork Backlog (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=azImI3pD…

[peter.wedemeier1]

"Most people probably assume that the U.S. stock market is free of government interference. It is acknowledged that the bond and currency markets are influenced by policy makers, but equities are considered different territory altogether. Current mythology holds that share prices rise and fall on the basis of market forces alone. Such sentiments appear to be seriously mistaken. A thorough examination of published information strongly suggests that since the October 1987 crash, the U.S. government has periodically intervened to prevent another destabilizing stock market fall. And as official rhetoric continues to toe the free market line, manipulation has become increasingly apparent."

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf

[peter.wedemeier1]

NY Fed, dealers to meet at CDS summit
Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:02 AM ET

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=…

[peter.wedemeier1]

U.S. stock losses mount as oil rises
Market pressured by Fed uncertainty, rising oil
By Leslie Wines, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:46 AM ET Sept. 19, 2005

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock losses intensified Monday, as investors behaved warily ahead of the Federal Reserve`s decision on interest rates on Tuesday and watched crude futures surge above $66 a barrel again.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={8091CA35-020…

[peter.wedemeier1]

ECONOMIC REPORT
U.S. leading indicators fall 0.2%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:24 AM ET Sept. 22, 2005

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE990E2D7%2…

[peter.wedemeier1]

RBA warning of `meltdown`
David Uren, Economics correspondent
September 27, 2005

FURTHER rises in oil prices, the collapse of a major bank or an unexpected jump in inflation could be all it takes to send the increasingly fragile global financial system into meltdown.

The Reserve Bank of Australia warned yesterday that the current calm in financial markets could be the prelude to a storm that could wreak havoc in the world economy.

The RBA believes the boom in markets for shares, bonds and housing in many countries is unsustainable.

mehr:

http://theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16…

[normalus]

dr5ew4 geht fliegen - noch auf gestrigem niveau getaxt...

[normalus]

Laut dem US-Handelsministerium sind in den USA im August die Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter gegenüber dem Vormonat um 3,3 Prozent gestiegen. Volkswirte rechneten mit einem Anstieg von lediglich 0,9 Prozent. Abzüglich des volatilen Transportsektors stellte sich ein Zuwachs von 4,2 Prozent ein. Der Rückgang des Vormonats wurde von ursprünglich minus 4,9 Prozent auf minus 5,3 Prozent nach unten revidiert.

[normalus]

AKTUELLES:

Während der laufenden US Vorbörse halten sich die US Indexfutures weiterhin im positiven Bereich und deuten eine insgesamt feste Eröffnung an. Derzeit notiert der Nasdaq-Future mit 4,50 Punkten im Plus bei 1586,00 Punkten, der S&P-Future steigt um 3,25 Punkte auf 1225,00 Punkte an.

[normalus]

Mit Pluszeichen dürften die US-Börsen in den Handel gehen. Darauf deuten die gegenwärtigen Verläufe der Futures hin. Der NASDAQ-Future erhöht sich um 0,3 Prozent auf 1.586 Punkte. Ebenso steigt der S&P-Future um 0,3 Prozen auf 1.224,75 Punkte.

Nachdem sich die Wall Street am Vortag trotz enttäuschender Konjunkturdaten im Plus behauptete, ist hinsichtlich des Gesamtmarktes von einer relativen Stärke auszugehen. Der weitere Fokus wird vermutlich auf den Ausweis zu den Öldaten und der Entwicklung des Ölpreises gerichtet sein.

Um 16.30 Uhr werden die wöchentlichen Rohöllagerbestände bekannt gegeben. Im Vorfeld der Daten steigt der November Futurekontrakt für US-Leichtöl um 0,4 Prozent auf 65,32 Dollar.

Als positiver Indikator ist der Ausweis zu besser als erwartet ausgefallenen Konjunkturdaten über die Auftragseingänge langlebiger Güter für August zu sehen. Die Auftragseingänge stiegen um 3,3 Prozent. Die Prognosen der Volkswirte lagen bei einem Zuwachs von lediglich 0,9 Prozent.

Laut einem Marktstrategen besteht die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Dow Jones die Marke von 10.500 Punkten in Angriff nimmt. Die Investoren würden noch über reichlich Liquidität verfügen. Aus diesem Grund sei mit einem spekulativen Geldfluss in den Markt zu rechnen.


noch auf vortagesniveau rein bei dr5ew4...

[peter.wedemeier1]

Kennedy Gammage / Hindenburg Omen
No newsletter tonight, but wanted to update you with several developments. First of all, we received a sixth Hindenburg Omen tonight. NYSE New 52 week Highs came in at 178, and New Lows at 89. The common portion, 89, divided by total issues traded 3,417, comes to 2.60 percent which is above our minimum threshold of 2.20 percent. The NYSE 10 week moving average is rising and the McClellan Oscillator is negative, which completes the final two requirements for a Hindenburg Omen. We will be discussing the past performance of this potential stock market crash signal this weekend. This weekend`s issue will most likely come out on Sunday.

Robert McHugh @Technicalindicatorindex.com

[peter.wedemeier1]

"...
When then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto noted in 1997 that Japan at one point had been "tempted" to sell some of its huge cache of U.S. government securities, the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 192 points -- its worst point fall to that point since the 1987 crash.

Since then, Japanese politicians and scholars generally have been more guarded in their comments, even when wondering aloud about selling Treasuries. But these days, a vocal and influential minority has gradually begun to point to the dangers of investing so heavily in a currency whose future appears so precarious.
..."

http://www.roanoke.com/business/wb/wb/xp-34514

[WINDDANCER]

ich denke heute ist ein guter Tag zum abschmiern

[peter.wedemeier1]

Millionaires feel less bullish
Survey reveals that they`re no longer optimistic on investment outlook -- first time since Aug. `04.
October 5, 2005: 1:41 PM EDT
By Rob Kelley, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Millionaires showed concern about the investment outlook in September, despite being traditionally more optimistic than other affluent investors, according to a Spectrem Group survey.

Spectrem`s Millionaire Index fell to an all-time low of 5 in September...

"Millionaires finally have succumbed to the pessimism that has dogged the overall affluent population throughout 2005," said George H. Walper, Jr., president of Spectrem Group, in a statement.

"Their focus on longer-term issues such as the economy, presidential politics and oil and gas prices suggests this pessimism may be with us for some time."

"I believe what we`re seeing now is the result of so much bad news: the two hurricanes, the economy, energy prices, the continuing problems in Iraq," said Walper.

"That drives investors to be cautious. But at the same time we`re not seeing a huge move toward cash, but continued pessimism could cause that."

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/05/news/economy/millionaire_ind…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Fed`s Fisher Says `Inflation Virus` Must Be Stopped (Update3)

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers must prevent an ``inflation virus`` from disrupting the U.S. economy, Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher said.

Stocks fell as Fisher`s comments added to concern the central bank will raise interest rates to stifle inflation stoked by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita even as economic growth slows. The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index fell 0.4 percent to 1191.49 at 4:11 p.m. in New York.

``We cannot let the equivalent of sclerosis block the arteries and disrupt the workings`` of the economy, Fisher said. ``Nor can we let the inflation virus infect the blood supply and poison the system.``

Prices paid by manufacturers rose by the most in 15 years, a survey this week showed. Energy costs have soared since the hurricanes knocked out refineries and rigs along the Gulf Coast, which accounts for 30 percent of U.S. crude oil production.

Alarm bells are also ringing in Europe, where central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said today he`s increasingly concerned about inflation and is prepared ``at any time`` to raise interest rates for the first time in five years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEcJ1eNK…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Richard Russell:

CONCLUSION -- I didn`t care for today`s closing. In the old day when the market was down BIG during the day, they`d often bring it back on a late-tape near the close. If, at the close, the market was still down, I would refer to the action as "burning up their ammunition." That`s the feeling I got today. Of course, there aren`t any late-tapes these days, but the Dow was down over 80 point earlier during the session today, and then an hour before the close "they" brought the market back -- but it STILL CLOSED DOWN. I thought this was simply burning up the ammo.

What`s behind this sudden and violent turn of events? I believe it`s explained in the very informative piece by Rob Lee that I`ve included at the end of today`s site (please do not fail to read this piece). Suddenly, the dollar has turned weak, the euro has surged, and gold remains firm, and in its bull trend.

What I believe is happening is that investors, both domestic and international, have collectively recognized that the dollar`s in trouble. And if the dollar`s in trouble, everything denominated in dollars is in trouble. This concept has such enormous implications that it`s almost beyond the comprehension of most professionals and totally beyond the comprehension of the great American retail public.

What, America`s "mighty" reserve currency in trouble? The answer is "yes," but it`s an answer that few analysts or journalists are addressing. The US population has depended on the dollar`s reserve-status and "invincibility" for so long that it has never occurred to them that their debt-laden currency could be slowly losing its reserve status. And you have to ask yourself -- when a nation has to borrow money to pay off its own rising debts, how long can it be before it`s currency reflects this dire state of affairs?

My own opinion is that the stock market`s weakness is a function of big money leaving the scene. Where is the big money going? The answer is -- away from US dollars. But towards what? Towards other paper currencies such as the euro or even the yen -- but mainly towards tangibles, towards anything of real value unencumbered by debt. And world money is certainly moving toward the only intrinsic (non-debt) currency -- gold (with silver as a second choice).

Is oil a tangible? Yes, I consider oil a tangible, but unlike gold, you can`t buy actual oil and put it in your bank vault. Of course, there are oil futures, but I don`t recommend futures for most subscribers. This reduces oil to oil stocks and ETFs, including XLE and VDE .

A few days ago I made the statement that this is not just another "emergency oil spike," this is our first primary bull market in oil and energy. Thus, I would treat oil in the same way I treat gold. I`m not trading oil, I`m not timing oil purchases. You take your position, and you sit and allow the primary trend to do its work.

http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf

[peter.wedemeier1]

Analyst Timing is Off at Key Market Turning Points

Last Thursday, the technically damaged Homebuilder stocks got a much needed sentiment salvo, courtesy of Deutsche Securities who initiated coverage of the homebuilders with a “Buy” rating. This “good news” was followed up promptly Monday morning when Standard and Poor’s announced that homebuilder Lennar Homes (LEN) was going to be included in the S&P 500. These two pieces of positive sentiment resulted in healthy daily rallies in the homebuilding stocks. Will the analyst upgrades result in a sustainable uptrend? As part of the crowd, analysts tend to be right and bullish through impulse waves, 3 and 5 of typical 5-wave advances; but the bullishness becomes misguided and dangerous during important changes in trend. The technical charts of the homebuilders are suggesting that after an amazing run, these stocks have seen their top-of-the-real-estate-bubble tops. Now is probably the time to break with the bullish analysts. Tonight I will examine analyst opinion changes near and after the technology market top because real estate stocks are likely to behave similarly.

There is some relatively recent precedent for the correctness of parting with analyst opinion after a major top. Technology stocks were among the most loved throughout their 1990’s bubble. They led the market as a continuous rhythm of positive sentiment was drummed into the speculating public by Wall Street analysts. For the most part, the positive beat continued even after the music stopped and the Nasdaq market topped. As the Nasdaq started its trek toward its October 2002 bottom, there were analyst upgrades with a peppering of downgrades. It was not until most technology stocks lost one-half of their value or more that the majority of analysts turned negative on these stocks. While there were a few well timed negative analyst calls, the broad majority of Wall Street analysts were the most wrong at the exact moment when being wrong turned out to be most expensive.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[peter.wedemeier1]

Dow Jones gefallen 53 Punkte
Dow Transports auch gefallen.
Und dieses am Columbus Day Feiertag!
Dieses läßt nichts gutes für die Zukunft erwarten!

mfg.

[peter.wedemeier1]

Companies have not been in such shape since the Depression
$88 billion in debt may become junk
By CAROLINE SALAS
Bloomberg News

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3387898

[peter.wedemeier1]

Gold zings amid hot resources

10 Oct 2005 -- Resources stocks -- excluding the energy sub-sector -- outperformed nervous global markets on Monday, as investors flocked towards the sector after recent-profit taking, on concerns of over high crude oil prices, and rising interest rates in the US.

These inflationary fears helped push gold to $478.50 an ounce on Monday, to the highest since January 1988.

David Holmes at RBC Capital Markets said investors appeared to be uncomfortable with currency and bond markets.

Holmes saw "safe-haven hedge" buying and, to some degree, a rally driven by inflation concerns.

The buying of gold and broader resources started early after the weekend, in Australia, as UBS and Macquarie Equities recommended the resources sector...

The sector remained in good demand on the back of continuing investor demand for quality...


http://www.moneyweb.co.za/specials/offshore_investing/500075…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Market beat

Rise in price of gold bad news for dollar

Oct. 12, 2005, Los Angeles Times -- The last time an ounce of gold cost $470, Alan Greenspan was in his first year as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Seventeen years later, Greenspan is on the verge of retiring -- and the metal finally is back to its late-1980s price level after a long bear market.

The gold/Greenspan convergence is raising suspicions on Wall Street. Some believe the metal’s revival must be saying something about the economy the Fed chief is leaving to his as-yet unnamed successor.

The purchase of gold often is equated with a rising level of fear among investors. If people are trading their cash for an ancient commodity, it suggests some erosion of faith in the financial system.

Is it inflation that’s worrying investors? Or deflation? Or the prospect of a global economic crash that would lead to the ruin of national currencies?

Or perhaps gold is just a beneficiary of its own recent success: The higher it goes, the more likely it is to attract hedge funds and other short-attention-span traders who are quick to jump aboard any rallying market and don’t care much what the trigger was.

In any case, more investors are taking note because the metal’s latest surge has lifted it $35 (as of the end of September) since late August. It’s a new phase of a gold bull market that began in 2002 after 14 years of mostly declining prices.

There was a solid explanation for gold’s 2002-04 rally: The dollar was sinking in that period against other major currencies. Because gold and the dollar are rivals as forms of money, it stands to reason that what’s bad for one is good for the other.

...This year, the dollar has rebounded modestly against many currencies. But even as the dollar continued to strengthen in September, gold suddenly caught fire again.

Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust in Chicago, poses the question that is probably on the minds of many small-business owners and corporate executives: “How long can businesses absorb these higher energy prices before some of them go out of business or aggressively pass through some of the costs?”

...if U.S. consumer price inflation is 4 percent next year instead of the 2 percent to 3 percent that many experts foresee, it could be a shock to financial markets. That could benefit gold by default.

Some investors also might turn to the metal if they become worried about serious deflation rather than inflation.

Deflation, or a general decline in the prices of goods, services and financial assets, is what Japan lived through in the 1990s. If investors started to fear that that was possible on a global scale – say, because of a deep worldwide recession – gold’s historic role as a store of value could mean that it would attract money that would probably be fleeing stocks and many bonds in that sort of environment.

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/business/1288153…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die breiteren Marktindikatoren (Russel 2000, S&P500, DJTA, Banken etc.) malen ein weit düsteres Bild als der Blue-Chip Dow Jones.

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Die weltweiten Aktienmarktindizes (und vor allem der US-Aktienmarkt) sind um 2/3 überbewertet basierend auf historischen P/E`s?

mfg

[peter.wedemeier1]

Investors take cover in precious metals

Oct 12 (Financial Times) -- The dollar`s recent rally stalled on Wednesday in spite of renewed expectations of further US interest rate rises following the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Equity markets put in relatively lacklustre performances but precious metals prices advanced as investors sought protection from the threat of inflation.

Wall Street got off to an uncertain start... European stocks turned downward after two days of gains... Asia was also broadly weaker...

Gold briefly pushed above $480 an troy ounce to touch its highest level for more than 17 years as funds bought up the metal amid inflation concerns. "With the significant level of fund enthusiasm [set] to drive prices higher and a favourable technical trend, gold appears likely to test the next resistance at $481 in the near term," said Barclays Capital. By the end of European trading, however, spot gold was back down to about $475...

[peter.wedemeier1]

Richard Russell:

The stock market is in a primary bear market.

Tangibles with and emphasis on gold are in a primary bull market.

Oil, natural gas and energy are in a primary bull market.

I`ve gone over the phases of primary bull and bear markets hundreds of times since I first started writing Dow Theory Letters back in 1958. Therefore, I`m going to spare my older readers a description of the three phases that accompany every bull and bear market. I simply want to talk about the end of the second phase and the entrance of the markets into the third or final phase.

The stock market is currently in its second phase with the third phase lurking somewhere ahead. The second phase is usually the longest and most difficult phase of any bull or bear market. When the stock market ends its current second bear market phase, the brutal times will arrive. This will be the panic phase of the bear market in which those still holding stocks will decide that it`s time to "dump everything." The third phase, as the great Dow Theorist described it, is the phase where "those saving for a rainy day -- wake up to find that it`s raining."

In the third phase, unlike conditions today, stocks will be selling at single digit price/earnings ratios while dividend yields will be moving into the 6 percent or more zone. As opposed to today`s stubborn optimism, in the third phase investor sentiment will turn black-gloomy, and phrases will be heard such as "this is the end of capitalism," or "I don`t want to ever hear the words, Wall Street, again."

OK, enough of bear market action -- let`s turn to bull markets and energy, oil and gold. We`re now probably early in the second phase of the energy/oil/gold bull market. The second phase of the bull market is the longest and most difficult. This is the phase where erratic action, corrections and scare-declines will appear. During the second phase the bull will do everything in his power to shake investors out of their holdings.

I`ve shown on the gold chart how gold has risen from one zone to the next higher zone, but within each zone we suffered through correction, sudden slides, adverse news reports and instance after instance of negative (scary) news about gold. Anybody who has held gold or gold stocks over the last four years should probably receive the coveted "Stubborn Holders and Survivors" metal. Holding any item through the entire length of a bull market is one of the most difficult feats that any investor can accomplish.

I`ve stated over and over again during this gold bull market that we should HOLD on to our gold and gold shares. And I`ll say it again as gold currently corrects -- "Hang tight, hold on, and if you must do something -- then buy more gold." This is a primary bull market in gold. In a bull market, you close your eyes, you shut off your ears, and ride the bull.

Those subscribers who were with me during the `70s know what I`m talking about. We sweated when we bought gold back in the early 1970s, during the bull market`s first phase. We`re sweating again now as gold and tangibles move erratically through the tedious, extended second phase.

Finally, the third phase of the bull market will arrive, and this is ironic -- more money will be made during the third phase, and made faster, than was made during the entire first and second phases taken together.

I remember during the early 1970`s how gold climbed laboriously higher -- each dollar higher seemed to be accomplished through waiting and agony. Repeated vicious corrections scared us to our bones. Then came the late `70s, and we saw gold surge by huge chunks. Often in one day gold would climb in terms of points almost equal to the entire price of gold during early 1974.

That was the "blow-off" third phase of the bull market in gold. It was comparable to the final explosive move in tech stocks that we witnessed during 1999 and early-2000.

So my advice -- don`t let the news, the corrections, the Fed, the propaganda, the Commercials, scare you out of your gold and gold shares. Somewhere ahead the third phase of the gold/tangible will materialize, as it does during all primary bull markets. At that time of intense excitement, subscribers will look back on the year 2005 and ask themselves, "What was I worrying about. That old coot, Russell, told us to sit tight with our gold and tangibles. Damned if he wasn`t right."

[peter.wedemeier1]

October Scares Investors More This Year

Investors know October is the stock market`s scariest month. But this October finds them even jumpier than usual. The magnitude of the year`s calamities — the tsunami, the Pakistan earthquake and Hurricane Katrina — has prompted some to prepare for disasters of almost every stripe.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051015/ap_on_bi_ge/wall___main_…

[peter.wedemeier1]

Inflation bugaboo undermines stocks

(AP) NEW YORK -- Wall Street`s chronic fear of inflation sent stocks skidding Tuesday as a sharp jump in wholesale prices overshadowed strong profit reports from several Dow Jones industrials.

Better-than-expected earnings from Johnson & Johnson, IBM Corp. and United Technologies Corp. were overlooked by investors preoccupied by the biggest increase in the Labor Department’s Producer Price Index in 15 years. The PPI, which measures prices at the wholesale level, rose 1.9 percent in September on high energy and food costs. With those costs removed, “core” PPI rose 0.3 percent, still higher than the 0.2 percent expected on Wall Street.

“It’s not that people are saying, ’get me out of this market,’ but there’s enough headwinds out there that makes it tough to say, ’I want to own this market,” said Jay Suskind, head trader at Ryan Beck & Co.

With wholesale prices rising, the Fed is likely to continue to raise rates through the end of the year, according to Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Johnson Illington Advisors.

“The fear in the marketplace is that the Fed is going to be seduced by this inflation data into raising rates too high... earnings won’t be good in 2006 if rates go too high.”

http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2005/10/18/business/doc4…

[peter.wedemeier1]

So Wilma entwickelt sich zum schlimmsten Sturm den es jemals in den USA gegeben hat, lauten Befürchtungen:

"Wilma winds intensify to 175 mph as it becomes possibly worst storm ever"

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-wilm…


Diese News kommen nach einem

- Skandal (Wertpapierbetrug) an der Wall Street (Refco), zusammen mit der Befürchtung von weiter steigenden Zinsen, und für viele Haushalte der USA nicht leistbare Heizölkosten in diesem Winter, ebenso die neu aufkochende Inflation und einem DOW Jones Industrial Average der seinen Kopf nicht über die 10.300 halten kann.

mfg

[BrainWorks]

na pede, das war wohl nix. morgen werden die bären weiter gejagt.........

[mobay]

ich werde mit meiner schrottflinte auch dabei sein

11000 wir kommen

[peter.wedemeier1]

Relentless Rate Increases from the Fed

The Fed is being relentless in their mantra to raise interest rates…it came out in their Beige Book today and was reiterated by four more Fed Governors out on the speaking tour. Will they cut off their nose to spite their face??? It looks like the deflation scare a couple years ago was nothing more than a smokescreen for the Fed to inflate, and now they have to deal with the aftermath of an overshoot to the 1% Fed Funds rate. The 1% Fed Funds rate came as a response to the bursting of the stock bubble, but that overshoot to 1% is now getting another overshoot to higher rates when the economy really can’t take it. I will be very curious to see where real estate prices go in a few years if mortgage rates move back to the 8% to 9% area.

So far, the Fed has been impotent to move long-term rates higher. The yield for ten-year Treasury paper on June 29, 2004 was 4.69% and the following day the Fed began to raise the Fed Funds rate in “measured” steps. Fed Funds has moved from 1% to 3.75%, but ten-year yields have gone from 4.69% to 4.46% at today’s close. The yield curve is flattening which means economic weakness ahead. It also means we could see the bottom fall out of the stock market if the Fed continues to the point of inverting the yield curve. Make NO MISTAKE about it folks; the Fed knows what they are doing, just as they knew they were the ones DIRECTLY responsible for popping the stock market bubble back in 2000. In 1997 Mr. Greenspan talked of “irrational exuberance” and three years later he took ACTION to cave the stock market. Have a look at the next two charts to see that the yield curve was considered “normal” (I used a snapshoot in mid-1999) and stock prices were moving higher. Now look at the second yield curve at the very top of the stock market…the Fed raised rates so much that they inverted the yield curve with the carnage in the stock market to follow.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[durran]

siehst du peter - mal so eine kleine überschrift übersetzt ließt sich der thread dodch gleich ganz anders und man weiß worum es geht.

weiter so.

[Renco]

Wie wir alle wissen,hat der Dow schon ganz andere Krisen
-wenn man von Krise ueberhaupt sprechen kann-weggesteckt.

[[e-mail]]

Hallo zusammen,

sehr schön, wie die Rentenmärkte, ganz besondere in D, korrigieren. Wird ja auch langsam Zeit nach lächerlichen 124,50 im Bund Future.
Die Zinsgefahr wächst langsam und stetig, genauso wie sich ein Löwe immer wieder näher an sein Opfer pirscht. Die Anleihenbesitzer bekommen jetzt zuerst einmal einen weg, und dann sind die Aktionäre dran.
Von 1% auf 4% in so kurzer Zeit, das bekommen sie, ganz besonders sicher an der NYSE, zu spüren. Aber das dauert.
Der Löwe hat auch Geduld.
Hier braucht man noch mind. 6 Monate und darf sich nicht grämen, wenn die Aktien erstmal wieder steigen. Soll der Dow doch auf 11000 gehen, na und. Die Unternehmen schaffen doch schon oft nicht mal mehr die Schätzungen, die Erwartungen sind zu hoch. Dennoch: Gute Nachrichten werden mit Kursaufschlägen belohnt - noch.

[DeltaComet]

hier mal reinkopiert vom smart investor in bezug auf den neue fed-chef und die zukünftigen zinsentwicklung.


Der nächste Fed-Chef
Sie erinnern sich: Bernanke war derjenige, der vor etwa 18 Monaten auf die Frage eines Journalisten, ob denn der USA im Falle von stark steigenden Zinsen nicht der Kollaps drohe, sehr süffisant sinngemäß so antwortete:

Eine solche Situation ist nicht denkbar, denn die Fed würde in diesem Falle alle auf den Markt geworfenen US-Staatsanleihen aufkaufen und somit die Zinsen niedrig halten .

Wir wollen diesen denkwürdigen Satz deshalb nochmals in Erinnerung rufen, weil damit vollkommen klar wird, wohin die Reise ab Januar nächsten Jahres (am 6.1.2006 tritt Greenspan ab) gehen wird. Wenn Greenspan schon einer viel zu laxen Geldpolitik bezichtigt werden muß, so werden die Geld-Zügel zukünftig unter BB so locker sein, „daß sie drohen, den Boden zu berühren“.


habe persönlich überhaupt nichts dagegen, wenn in den nächsten jahren die us-zinsen fast den boden berühren, würde das doch bedeuten, das us-aktien fast keine andere wahl haben als zu steigen mangels alternative oder will jemand wirklich sein geld für 0,5% als festgeld parken oder sogar in staatsanleihen stecken?
meine langfristige erwartung ist, daß der dow jones durchaus bei weiter fallenden zinsniveau in den nächsten fünf jahren noch die 18.000 punkte sehen kann

[[e-mail]]

Was interessiert mich smart investor, oder weiß ich wer noch.

Was würdest Du denn auf diese dämliche Frage antworten:
Auch BB ist verpflichtet, die Geldmengenziele der Regierung zu erreichen und die Inflation in den Griff zu bekommen.

Würde er alle Anleihen aufkaufen, was er natürlich nicht kann, schon bei den gravierenden Haushaltsdefiziten der USA nicht (der lustige Irak-Krieg for example), würde er entgegen dem laufenden Trend die Geldmenge steigern.

Ist Greenspan, 80 Jahre alt, nach dem Crash 2000 50% p.a. machend mit Anleihenspekulationen, ein Idiot.

Kann denn einfach mal eben das Ruder rumgerissen werden?

Schau Dir doch mal die Umsätze im Dow an. Die sind jetzt schon, noch vor der explosiven Phase weitaus höher als in den Monaten Oktober ´99 bis April ´00. Wer kauft denn jetzt? Warum sagen denn alle US-Investoren, D ist so billig, wir kaufen ein? Vielleicht sind die ja noch schneller draußen als sie reingegangen sind, wenn ihre Erwartungen nicht erfüllt sind. Intershop als Post-Postbote für das, das da noch kommen mag.

Die US-Zinsen sollen nochmal den Boden berühren? He? Sie standen bei historischen 1%.

[[e-mail]]

Tja, was war denn das?
Da hat der DOW doch etwas nachgegeben, wieder sehr hohe Umsätze, soch hoch wie am 911.

War das jetzt die Trendwende?
Die Unternehmen, wie heute Yahoo und INTL haben die Erwartungen des Marktes nicht getroffen oder gar übertroffen. Bei Yahoo wars nur knapp.

Alcoa und Dupont haben die Erwartungen ebenfalls enttäuscht. Mal schaun, was die Finanztitel machen, allen voran Citigroup, Morgen Stanley.

Aber: Die Airlines sind gestiegen, d.h. auf gute Nachrichten steigt die Börse noch.

Die Hausse scheint trotz dieser Rücksetzer im Dow noch nicht vorbei, auch wenn Japan - unvorstellbar, das mit dem veralteten Handelssystem - stark abgegeben hat. Das mit Livedoor ist ja wohl keine Überraschung: An der Börse wird sowieso nur gefälscht und manipuliert, man darf sich nur nicht erwischen lassen, ne, Hilmar Kopper!

Und die Liquidität wird immer knapper, die Unt. investieren immer mehr, weiten ihre Kapazitäten aus, da wird bald keine Liquidität mehr bei den Banken, ganz zu schweigen bei den stark gestiegenen Zinsen, übrig bleiben.

Aber das dauert noch...

Und dann machts peng!

[NOBODY_III]

27.01.2006 22:47
US-Anleger trotz BIP-Rückgang euphorisch

Der US-Aktienmarkt hat am Freitag erneut robuste Zuwächse verbuchen können. Dabei zeigten sich die Marktteilnehmer völlig unbeeindruckt von dem dramatischen Rückgang beim US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Dieses hatte im vierten Quartal laut vorläufigen Schätzungen des Handelsministerium, bei lediglich 1,1 Prozent gelegen. Die Analysten hatten zuvor mit einem Zuwachs von 2,7 Prozent gerechnet.

Zahlreiche Politiker und Analysten hatten sich daraufhin regelrecht darin überschlagen, diese Entwicklung als „einmaligen Ausrutscher“ zu bezeichnen. In der Tat hatten sich offenbar vor allem die Verbraucher mit ihren Ausgaben ungewohnt stark zurückgehalten. Besondere Umsatz-Einbußen verzeichnete dabei die Automobilbranche. Aber auch der Nachhall der Hurrikan-Saison und der seinerzeitige Anstieg der Spritpreise hatten wohl hart auf das Gemüt der US-Konsumenten geschlagen.

Die Marktteilnehmer trösteten sich indessen mit der Hoffnung, dass die schwache BIP-Entwicklung wohl auch die FED von allzu starken Zinserhöhungen abbringen könne. Positiv vermerkt wurde auch, dass die Quartalsberichte der laufenden Woche schon deutlich besser ausgesehen hatten als in der Vorwoche, in der es teilweise zu argen Enttäuschungen gekommen war. Insbesondere die Berichte von Microsoft und Procter&Gamble sorgten am Freitag noch einmal für neue Zuversicht.

Der Dow Jones Index konnte sich angesichts dessen um 0,9 Prozent auf 10.907 Punkte verbessern. Der breitere Standard&Poors Index stieg um 0,78 Prozent auf 1283 Stellen; der Nasdaq Composite gewann 0,93 Prozent auf 2304 Zähler hinzu.

Dabei stieg die Aktie von Microsoft nach dem Bericht vom Vorabend um 4,87 Prozent auf 27,79 Dollar. Procter&Gamble gewannen 1,56 Prozent auf 59,74 Dollar hinzu. Die Titel von Broadcom schossen nach einem überraschend optimistischen Ausblick um 18,99 Prozent nach oben auf 69,87 Dollar. Bei Pfizer sorgte die Hoffnung auf die baldige Zulassung eines Diabetes-Medikaments für einen Kursgewinn von 3,75 Prozent auf 25,99 Dollar.

Der Euro verlor 1 Prozent auf 1,2094 Dollar. Der März-Rohölfuture kletterte um 1,50 Dollar nach oben auf 67,76 Dollar pro Barrel; März-Gold verbesserte sich um 1,10 auf 558,80 Dollar je Unze.

Quelle: BörseGo

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vielleicht könnte man diese Sicht "des einmaligen Ausrutschers" nicht nur auf das BIP der USA anwenden, sondern auch auf die Beurteilung der diversen Unternehmensergebnisse.

Es ist schon makaber, was sich kursmäßig bei Verfehlung der Analystenerwartungen um Prozent-Bruchteile tut!

Vielleicht hat die unterschiedliche Beurteilung der Unternehmensdaten damit zu tun, ob die Börse nach oben oder unten will.

[aurisinterna]

Es wird echt mal Zeit, daß der DJ mal etwas zulegt.

Auris

[DeltaComet]

die ausblicke sind diese woche wieder leicht besser.

"For 2006, over the last month, 202 firms have seen estimate increases, while 205 have been cut for 2006 - a ratio of 0.97, up from 0.91 last week".

also auf 100 aktien, deren gewinnerwartungen für 06 gesenkt wurden gibt es diese woche 97 aktien deren gewinnerwartungen erhöht wurden. letzte woche waren es nur 91 positive erwartungen.

der nahl-indicator wird immer stärker, höchster wert seit drei monaten, das bedeutet, daß der breite markt steigt.
von den zinsen kommt auch kein alarmzeichen, sie zeigen immernoch ein positives aktiensignal auf.

was bedenklich ist, sind die positionen der kommerziellen anleger im euro/dollar future. nämlich seit zwei monaten sind hier starke europositionen aufgebaut worden, spricht also für einen fallenden markt.

die saisonalität ist für das erste halbe jahr neutral.
denke die nächste zeit wird es ziemlich ruhig werden, erst im zweiten halbjahr gehts wieder los, wegen des 4-jährigen us-präsidentschaftszyklus und der inversen zinsstruktur, die bisher immer eine rezession eingeleitet haben.

[spekblpum]

Der Stochastic hat im Tages-Intervall dei Trendlinie nach unten durchbrochen! Da müßte doch der Dow normalerweise runtergehen?

[DeltaComet]

vorsicht mit indikatoren kann ich da nur sagen.

meiner meinung alles schrott.
sind alles nur irgendwelche ableitungen vom eigentlichen kursverlauf.

wenn du nach technischen merkmalen handeln willst, dann schau dir den chart direkt an, hier wirst du alles sehen was du benötigst, indikatoren dagegen sind nur im übertragenen sinne die stütsräder für leute, die kein fahrrad fahren können.

[spekblpum]

Kann den weiteren Kursverlauf nicht erkennen, wenn ich den Chart direkt ansehe;
wie wird sich dann der Dow in den nächsten Wochen deiner Meinung nach weiterenwickeln?

[spekblpum]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 19.966.957 von DeltaComet am 30.01.06 23:05:04

was ist denn der nahl-indicator?