Peabody Energy - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

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12.04.2010 06:02
Peabody Energy Chairman and CEO Calls China 'An Economic Miracle Powered by Coal'


BEIJING, April 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Peabody Energy Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gregory H. Boyce today delivered the keynote address at Coaltrans China in Beijing, observing that: "There is no more fitting backdrop to demonstrate the power of coal to lift societies and the power of technology to change the color of coal."

Boyce said it is no coincidence that China is the world's largest coal user. "The world's fastest-growing coal market is accomplishing what no other nation has... navigating industrialization, urbanization and modernization all at once. More than any other nation in the world... China is an economic miracle that is powered by coal."

Boyce also noted that China is participating in the global technology revolution to develop advanced coal plants like GreenGen for low-carbon economies. Ultimately these plants will be virtually emission-free, which Boyce calls "making black the new green."

Through greater use of green coal, nations can secure their energy supplies, strengthen economies and advance their environmental goals... the 'Three Es.' "Every day, we must use more coal... more cleanly... to benefit the world's people and economies," Boyce said.

The global population will grow 25 percent to more than 8 billion people by 2030, and the world's energy needs will increase 40 percent. This growth comes at a time when more than half the world's population lacks adequate access to electricity.

"So we have the dual challenge of providing electricity to the 3.6 billion people who aren't properly connected and expanding infrastructure to another 2 billion people who will be added to the grid."

Says Boyce: "The most pressing global crisis we face is the energy crisis affecting billions who lack adequate access to a basic necessity. The opportunity? More green coal. Coal is the only large-scale, sustainable fuel capable of meeting the demands of the world's major economies... and technology is the right path to accomplish our energy, economic and environmental goals."

Boyce also commented on coal-based solutions to achieve each of society's 'Three E' goals:

Energy Security

"Coal is the future fuel to provide electricity at scale: Coal demand will continue to outpace other energy sources and is forecast to grow 53 percent by 2030... which is more than 1.5 times the combined growth rate of all other energy sources including oil, gas, nuclear and hydro.

"The world has trillions of tons of coal, which comprise 60 percent of our global energy resources... And we will use them all! Reserves are large and geographically diverse, spanning nations on every major continent."

Economic Progress

"250 gigawatts of coal-fueled generation are under construction worldwide. This represents 950 million tonnes of incremental coal demand per year, along with 4.5 million jobs and $1 trillion in economic benefits from construction."

Environmental Solutions

"More clean coal is essential for satisfying our energy needs. As we continue increasing our use of coal, we must do more to achieve the parallel goal of a cleaner environment, working toward near-zero emissions, which includes carbon management. The multi-step path includes:

1. Building supercritical combustion plants with improved efficiencies, which in the United States typically have carbon dioxide emissions that are 15 percent below the existing fleet; 2. Demonstrating carbon capture and storage (CCS); 3. Completing large-scale CCS demonstrations; 4. Advancing coal to gas with CCS; 5. Deploying Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle technology with CCS on a commercial scale; and 6. Retrofitting the world's existing coal fleet with CCS technologies."

Peabody Energy is the world's largest private-sector coal company and a global leader in clean coal solutions. With 2009 sales of 244 million tons and $6 billion in revenues, Peabody fuels 10 percent of U.S. power and 2 percent of worldwide electricity, lighting cities on six continents. Peabody is energizing the world, one Btu at a time.

[R-BgO]

Peabody Prepares for Pricing Pandemonium

By Christopher Barker
April 23, 2010 | Comments (0)


Do you remember, back in 2006, when President Bush said that the U.S. was on the verge of breakthroughs in energy technology that would "startle" most Americans?

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) certainly doesn't bear the mark of a company that is bracing for an imminent fuel switch that might render coal obsolete. The company continues to fast-track expanded export capacity for both thermal and metallurgical coals from Australia destined for seaborne trade, primarily to India and China. The consensus forecasts for rapidly increasing demand for coal, and the accompanying upward pricing trend, stand in full support of Peabody's aggressive growth initiatives.

For the first quarter of 2010, Peabody enjoyed a boisterous 44% increase in net income over the fourth quarter of 2009. Compared to a rather remarkable prior-year quarter, however, profit remained unchanged at $0.50 per share. Although Peabody's coal trading unit chipped in only about half of its prior-year contribution to EBITDA, because of reduced volatility and "structured transactions" (think derivatives), the unit earned bragging rights over the loss incurred by its counterpart unit at rival Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI).

Pending price pandemonium
If you think the management of Peabody Energy has any doubt about the direction in which coal prices are heading from here, think again. The miner has left as much as 5 million tons of metallurgical coal production -- or about half of its full-year production target -- unpriced for the remainder of 2010. Even with met coal spot prices reaching $250 per ton -- $50 more than the April 1 quarterly benchmark price -- Peabody has left virtually all of its 2011 met coal production similarly exposed.

At least 45% of Peabody's thermal coal production in Australia remains unpriced, with a further 9 million to 10 million tons unpriced for 2011. Peering further afield, into 2012, we find Peabody's confidence in these long-term pricing trends extending to the recovering U.S. coal market: "Peabody retains the largest unpriced position in the industry for 2012 with 120 to 130 million tons available for pricing in the United States, along with 23 to 25 million tons in Australia," the company said.

The evidence supporting Peabody's confident expectation of higher thermal and met coal prices has been duly corroborated by insightful industry titans like Joy Global (Nasdaq: JOYG), this landmark $60 billion thermal coal supply deal with a Chinese utility, the massive build-out of Australian coal export facilities like Peabody's joint venture in Newcastle with BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (NYSE: YZC), Peabody's persistent efforts to acquire Macarthur Coal, and the long-term forecasts of the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

I'll say it again: If you have zero exposure to coal, you could be missing out on one of the clearest growth opportunities of the decade. I can discern only one primary risk factor to this long-term outlook, but any sidelined energy investors who have been holding their breath for a world-changing breakthrough since 2006 will tell you it's best to come up for air ... even if it's dirty air.

[v-trader]

Peabody Energy

Wer fürchtet sich vorm schwarzen Mann?


Der Kohlekonzern Macarthur ist als Übernahmeziel derart begehrt, dass er schon drei Bieter am Hals hat. Wir haben ein wenig in der Glut geschürt und die Branche analysiert.

Der riesige Kohlebedarf aus China hat einen schmutzigen Übernahmekampf um die australische Macarthur Coal entfacht. Und das, obwohl der weltgrößte Exporteur von pulverisierter Kohle gerade selbst dabei ist, den kleineren australischen Konkurrenten Gloucester Coal zu übernehmen.

Begonnen hatte alles vor rund einem Monat, als der weltgrößte börsenotierte Kohlekonzern Peabody Energy pro Macarthur-Aktie 13 australische Dollar (AUD) in cash geboten hatte. In der Vorwoche hatten die Amerikaner dann ihr Gebot auf 14 AUD je Aktie erhöht. Beide Gebote wurden von Macarthur allerdings umgehend zurückgewiesen. Abgeschmettert wurde am Freitag aber auch das Gebot des kleineren australischen Rivalen New Hope, das Macarthur gemessen am aktuellen Aktienkurs mit 14,82 AUD bewertet hätte. Nachdem gestern eine australische Zeitung darüber berichtet hatte, dass der Schweizer Bergbaukonzern Xstrata noch in dieser Woche ein Gebot über 16 AUD je Aktie bzw. in Summe über vier Milliarden AUD vorlegen könnte, sprang die Aktie sogar über die Marke von 16,50 AUD. Offenbar rechnen die Anleger damit, dass das Ende der Fahnenstange noch nicht erreicht ist.

China hat Hunger

Das Ende der Fahnenstange scheint aber auch beim asiatischen Hunger nach Kohle noch nicht erreicht zu sein. Die Regionen in Asien gehörten zwar bereits im Jahr 1998 zu den weltweit größten Kohleproduzenten und -verbrauchern, allerdings hat sich der Abstand zu Amerika und Europa in den vergangenen zehn Jahren noch deutlich vergrößert (s. Grafik).

Führend im Nationenranking ist sowohl beim Verbrauch als auch bei der Produktion die Volksrepublik China. Laut Aussage von Fang Junshi, Generaldirektor des Kohle-Departments der chinesischen Energiebehörde, könnte China 2010 bereits das zweite Jahr in Folge Nettoimporteur von Kohle werden. Hintergrund ist, dass im Vorjahr nach zahlreichen Grubenunglücksfällen rund 1000 unsichere Minen in China geschlossen wurden. Nachdem im Vorjahr netto 103,4 Millionen Tonnen importiert wurden, wird für dieses Jahr mit einer ähnlichen Größenordnung gerechnet. Die Schätzungen für die Gesamtproduktion in China liegen für 2010 zwischen drei und 3,15 Milliarden Tonnen. Der Kohlebedarf könnte aber nicht nur von den Chinesen angeheizt werden, sondern auch von den Europäern. Die Errichter neuer Kohlekraftwerke können, nach einem Gesetzesentwurf der EU-Kommission, nämlich ab 2013 mit Baukostenzuschüssen von bis zu 15 Prozent rechnen. Voraussetzung dafür ist, dass die Anlagen so gebaut werden, dass sie später um die noch nicht ausgereifte Technik der CO2-Abspaltung und -Speicherung aufgerüstet werden können.

Kohle aus Übersee

Wer von steigendem Kohlebedarf sowie von Übernahmeschlachten in der Branche profitieren möchte, findet vor allem in Osteuropa und Übersee eine reiche Auswahl an Aktien. Sieger in unserem Aktienranking nach KGV, Gewinnwachstum, Dividendenrendite und Empfehlungskonsens der Analysten wurde China Qinfa Group. Seit dem Börsegang im Juli 2009 hat sich ein Engagement bei der Aktie allerdings noch nicht bezahlt gemacht. Auch sind die Analystenprognosen bei chinesischen Aktien in der Regel mit Vorsicht zu genießen. Die B-Aktien der Nummer zwei im Ranking, Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal, werden derzeit nur in Shanghai gehandelt, erst im Laufe dieses Jahres strebt der Kohlekonzern ein Zweitlisting in Hongkong an, bei dem er sich Einnahmen von rund einer Milliarde $ erhofft (s. Chart). Attraktiv erscheint aber auch die Aktie von Peabody Energy, die bei der Übernahmeschlacht um Macarthur kräftig mitmischt und bei unserem Ranking immerhin an zehnter Stelle gelandet ist.

Wer allerdings das Einzelkursrisiko in Aktien aus fernen Ländern scheut, könnte auch einen Blick auf den Exchange Traded Fonds von ETFS werfen, bei dem die größten drei Positionen China Coal, Peabody und China Shenhua sind (s. Chart). Letztere ist übrigens auch im Zertifikat von RBS enthalten. Die Chinesen mischen unter anderem auch kräftig bei der Kohleverflüssigung mit, die umso rentabler wird, desto stärker der Ölpreis wieder nach oben klettert (siehe Lexikon unten). Derzeit wird die Aktie von 27 Analysten zum Kauf empfohlen.

ETF

ETFS-Russell-Global-Coal-Fund

ISIN IE00B3CNHF18

Größte Positionen: China Shenhua (12,6%), Peabody (11,2%), China Coal (10%)

Grafiken: ETF

Zertifikat

Open-End RBS Global Coal TR

ISIN NL0000725257

Größte Positionen : Coal & Allied (7,05%), Arch Coal (7,04%), China Shenhua (6,87%)

Grafik: Kohle Produktion

Chart: Inner Mongolia Vitai Coal

Tabelle: Die attraktivsten Kohle-Konzerne

[R-BgO]

14.07.2010 15:09
Mincom Signs Global Agreement with Peabody Energy


World's Largest Private-Sector Coal Company Adopts Mincom Solution to Optimize Equipment Maintenance Across Its Global Enterprise

Mincom, a leading global provider of software and services to asset-intensive industries, today announced a global licensing agreement with Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), the world's largest private-sector coal company. Under the three-year agreement, Mincom will provide Peabody with a hosted and fully managed implementation of Mincom LinkOne, a unique content-delivery solution that provides maintenance staff with graphically supported electronic catalogs and maintenance manuals - helping companies to reduce equipment downtime and improve the efficiency of maintenance processes.

Supported by Mincom's managed-services offering, Peabody Energy will implement Mincom LinkOne to streamline procurement processes and optimize the maintenance of key equipment across its global operations. Peabody Energy will use SAP's standard Open Catalog Integration (OCI) to integrate data between SAP Enterprise Buyer Professional and external catalogs provided by the company's heavy-equipment OEM vendors, such as Caterpillar and P&H.

Mincom LinkOne is a graphical content-delivery solution that provides correct and timely parts information to maintenance staff, thereby reducing equipment downtime and improving maintenance efficiency. A world leader in graphical content management and distribution, Mincom LinkOne has the unmatched power to link graphics with parts lists and rich text to easily produce graphically supported electronic catalogs and maintenance manuals.

To quickly achieve return on investment, the company will implement Mincom LinkOne leveraging the on-demand delivery model and other support services provided by Mincom. Mincom's managed-services offering can help companies decrease total cost of ownership by speeding time to deployment and reducing IT overhead, and achieve faster time to results while minimizing risk. Mincom offers customers a fully managed solution over their entire project lifecycle, implemented either on-premise or fully hosted from Mincom's data center to support the unique requirements of remote mining operations.

Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) is the world's largest private-sector coal company and a global leader in clean coal solutions. With 2009 sales of 244 million tons and $6 billion in revenues, Peabody fuels 10 percent of U.S. power and 2 percent of worldwide electricity, lighting cities on six continents.

[R-BgO]

ST. LOUIS, Oct. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The board of directors of Peabody Energy today approved a 21 percent increase in the regular quarterly dividend on common stock, to $0.085 per share. The increased dividend is payable on Nov. 26, 2010, to holders of record on Nov. 4, 2010.

"Peabody Energy is again raising its dividend, recognizing our substantial operating cash flows and record liquidity levels," said Peabody Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Gregory H. Boyce. "This is the second dividend increase in the past year, and we are pleased to be able to continue to expand our total shareholder returns even as we implement our major growth initiatives around the world."

Peabody Energy is the world's largest private-sector coal company and a global leader in clean coal solutions. With 2009 sales of 244 million tons and $6 billion in revenues, Peabody fuels 10 percent of U.S. power and 2 percent of worldwide electricity.

[R-BgO]

Wednesday December 1, 01:40 PM Reuters
Coal India eyes over 10 pct stake in Peabody asset


NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Coal India, the world's largest coal miner, is looking at buying over 10 percent in an asset of Australia's Peabody and has ample funds for overseas acquisitions, Chairman Partha Bhattacharyya said on Wednesday.

"Peabody is going ahead, discussions are becoming quite fruitful. Hopefully, it will be concluded in this fiscal," he told reporters.

Last month, Bhattacharyya said the company was in advanced talks with Peabody to acquire a stake in one of its Australian mines and was also looking at a long-term offtake agreement.

The state-run firm recently raised $3.4 billion in India's largest initial public offering.

He said on Wednesday Peabody had offered 10 percent in one of its companies and "we are trying to make it a little more so that we have representation on the board."

Bhattacharyya added that Coal India was looking at "a specific property" of U.S.-based Massey Energy.

Last week, he batted down media reports Coal India was mulling acquisition of the whole company, saying "neither they have offered us nor we have considered."

Indian companies are increasingly looking abroad to boost resources as the country's rapid industrialisation uses more and more local producing assets.

[R-BgO]

ST. LOUIS, Jan. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Peabody Energy announced today that record rains and flooding in Australia are expected to lead to 2010 EBITDA near the midpoint of the company's July 2010 full-year target of $1.7 to $1.9 billion, versus the revised targets the company set in October.

December has resulted in the worst rain and flooding in Australia in approximately 50 years, which has impacted production and shipments, washed out roads, restricted employee access, caused train derailments and created port delays. Half of Queensland has been declared a natural disaster area. These events have led to customer force majeure notices.

Heavy rains are affecting coal industry shipments across the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia, Indonesia, South Africa and South America. Combined with high global metallurgical coal demand and strong electricity generation in key coal-consuming nations, the reduced shipments are significantly tightening the seaborne supply-demand balance.

With Australia supplying more seaborne coal than any other nation, the strength of Peabody's long-term Australian platform continues to grow with expansions in both thermal and metallurgical coal mines, and production expected to reach 35 to 40 million tons by 2015.

Peabody Energy will announce the results for the year ended Dec. 31, 2010 on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011. A conference call with management is scheduled for 10 a.m. CST on Jan. 25.

[kfuchs]

Der folgende Kommentar ist zwar nicht ganz neu, aber m.E. immer noch aktuell:

Thermal coal market reacts to the Japanese disasters
3/25/2011
Action has put a temporary lid on prices in Asia, yet in the end the commodity’s outlook in the Pacific has never looked better

The global effects of Japan’s three-pronged disaster – earthquake, tsunami and the resulting nuclear crisis – are still unfolding. But it’s already becoming evident how the $100 billion-a-year seaborne thermal coal market will react.

Over the short term, the commodity has a bearish outlook. As economic activity slows in Japan, so does demand for power, and therefore thermal coal.

In addition, several power plants were damaged. So utilities have asked coal mining companies to defer their cargoes to a later date.

This action has put a temporary lid on prices for seaborne thermal coal in Asia. Prices in the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark for the Pacific basin, have remained stable at around $128 a ton… below the two-year high of $135 a ton set in January.

Yet in the end, the commodity’s outlook in the Pacific has never looked better.

Thermal coal prices continue to heat up

Thermal coal is already tight in Asia, especially after flooding in Australia hit production. And, as I detailed back in February, rising demand from China and India helped fire up thermal coal prices even more.

But those countries still trail Japan, the world’s largest thermal coal importer. And at some point, Japanese demand will recover as factories reopen and the country rebuilds itself.

With nuclear power output severely constrained, coal-fired plants will have to work even harder to produce more power. June through September, the country’s traditional peak months for electricity consumption, will prove especially rough.

Japan already buys 10 million tons of thermal coal per month. But the industry expects it to need an extra 500,000 tons per month in July through December to meet additional demand.

That number could hike still. After all, some Japanese utilities need to rebuild their stockpiles, which were washed away by the tsunami.

All that extra demand will just tighten the market further, pushing up prices. The upcoming negotiations for the 2011-12 annual thermal coal contracts in Asia will show the same conclusion.

Already postponed a few times, the talks should resume in a few weeks. When they do, the settlement price will almost certainly exceed the 2008-09 record of $125 a ton.

Some coal mining companies already proposed $145 a ton, whereas Japanese utilities countered with $130. The final price should probably be in the $135-$140 range.

And it’s not just in Asia that thermal coal prices are climbing…

•The same goes for the Atlantic basin.
•In Rotterdam, the European benchmark, they have already risen nearly 11% since the earthquake. They now sit at $135 a ton, a 2.5 year high.
•Meanwhile, Germany decided to idle a large chunk of its nuclear power stations due to the situation in Japan. That’s just one more reason for prices to keep climbing.

Thermal coal investment ideas

Globally, all of these factors are turning thermal coal into the ‘anti-nuke’ source of power. This will be very positive for thermal coal producers and their investors going forward.

•One such company is Xstrata PLC ADR, the world’s biggest thermal coal exporter.
•Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU, Stock Forum), Anglo American PLC ADR and Indonesia-based PT Bumi Resources also look good to check into.
Bottom line: Developing countries were already stoking demand for thermal coal. And current events, like the rapid move away from nuclear power, have made an even more bullish scene.

Investors would do well to get aboard the coal train for a long, multi-year ride.

Disclosure: The author does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Tony D'Altorio, Investment U
Since 1999, Investment U has provided impartial, no-nonsense investment advice on how to build long-lasting wealth. http://www.investmentu.com

Ich will damit fragen, ob bei BTU noch einer auf den Kohlezug aufgesprungen ist
oder ob andere coal miner attraktiver sind ?!

[kfuchs]

Bullish Sentiment for Patriot Coal and Peabody Energy Resumes

NEW YORK, NY -- (Marketwire) -- 11/04/11 -- While the Coal Industry has taken a beating in recent months regarding global economic worries and difficulty competing with low natural gas prices, most analysts argue that the coal market is set to explode. Coal demand is projected to increase significantly over the next 25 years due to the growth in industry and infrastructure in emerging markets which could benefit companies in the industry such as Peabody Energy Corporation and Patriot Coal Corporation.
...
Sterne Agee analyst Michael Dudas said in a note to clients that recent earnings reports from coal companies show that demand has been stronger than expected. That is raising hopes that coal prices will stay firm, and deliver better profits to companies like Peabody Energy Corp. that mine and sell coal.
...
Peabody Energy said that its third-quarter earnings climbed 22 percent and demand for coal is still rising for power generation in Asia and Europe. Earlier this year Peabody signed an agreement to develop a huge Chinese surface mine expected to produce 50 million tons of coal a year for decades. The coal producer predicted strong results for the rest of 2011, as it undertakes what it called its biggest global expansion in its 128-year history.

Kein weiterer (strategischer) Investor hier?
Schade....

[kfuchs]

Kohle vor Comeback?

http://www.teleboerse.de/n-tv_zertifikate/?vid=5780821

[Get_Rich84]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.918.059 von kfuchs am 17.03.12 15:28:46

Ich sag mal hallo!!! Bin seit heute auch dabei. Jetzt sind wir schon zu zweit.

[SKGold_2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.925.487 von Get_Rich84 am 19.03.12 20:21:49

Ich sag mal Guten Morgen.
Ich bin auch seit gestern hier dabei.
Spekuliere auf die Bodenbildung mit natürlich steigenden Kursen im Anschluss.
Sind ja ordentlich unter die Räder gekommen.

Gruß und uns viel Erfolg.

[SKGold_2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.927.178 von SKGold_2 am 20.03.12 09:21:00

Ich stell auch mal den Chart rein, damit man schön beobachten kann.

[kfuchs]

Hallo zusammen!

Meine Idee und mein Einstiegszeitpunkt letztes Jahr waren definitiv zu früh,
aber mittlerweile denke ich, dass alle schlechten Nachrichten - wie zB auch
die Überschwemmungen in AUS - (reichlich) eingepreist sind und ein Boden gefunden ist.

Is Peabody Energy Poised for a Contrarian Backlash?
3/26/2012 1:00 PM

In the latest installment of Monday Morning Outlook Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White detailed a few indicators that we here at Schaeffer's Investment Research keep in mind when quantifying sentiment toward a particular stock and/or index. Similar to semiconductor stock Cree (CREE), Rocky tapped Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU - 29.97) as a potential short play for the contrarian speculator.

Technically speaking, BTU has had a rough time on the charts, lopping off more than 8.8% in 2012, and pulling back about 58.4% over the past 52 weeks. In fact, the stock has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 21.3% during the past two months. BTU is currently off more than 0.7%, faltering below the $35 level, as well as its 10-week and 20-week moving averages -- which have guided the shares lower since mid-April 2011.

Despite this poor price action, it appears that relatively few traders are wagering on BTU to prolong its slide. Short interest decreased roughly 13% over the past month. These bearish bets now account for just 3% of the equity's float, pointing to a rather meager supply of sideline cash.

Meanwhile, there is an overwhelming preference for calls in the options arena. During the past two weeks, speculators on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 4.59 calls for every put. This ratio arrives in the 90th percentile of its annual range, signaling that traders on these exchanges have purchased bullish bets over bearish at an accelerated clip during the past couple of weeks.

BTU could suffer a further setback, should the shares fail to meet analysts' expectations. According to Zacks, 17 out of 18 brokerages deem this underperformer to be a "buy" or better, 15 of which are "strong buy" endorsements. Plus, Thomson Reuters places the average 12-month price target at $47.87, which represents a whopping 58.6% premium to Friday's settlement of $30.19.

Should BTU continue its overall downtrend, an unwinding of bullish sentiment among analysts or options players could weigh heavily on the coal mining issue in the near term. The stock's deficit could also worsen if a new crop of shorts decide to place new bets against the energy concern.

[Sihdi]

Gleiche Fehleinschätzung bei Kauf von Peabody hatte ich ebenfalls,werde
aber in Kürze noch einmal nachkaufen.
Rechne mit zähem Auftrieb des Kurses. Langfristig gesehen , gute Aktie.

[Punicamelon]

Die Aktie ist momentan billig, mit 3,5% Kontrolle der weltweiten Steinkohleförderung einer der Grössten und solidesten überhaupt, KGV etwa bei 10.
Das grösste Problem ist derzeit der fallende Steinkohleweltmarktpreis. Viele grosse Volkswirtschaften sind wieder nahezu bei Nullwachstum und deshalb nähert sich auch der Steinkohlepreis den direkten Förderkosten.
Peabody ist kerngesund, hat einen hohen Cashflow, eine gute Infrastruktur, aber entscheidend ist, wo ein realistischer Durchschnittspreis für Steinkohle erreicht wird.
Die Zukunft der Steinkohle hängt vor allen Dingen davon ab, ob der Markt auf 5 oder 10Jahressicht Fördererhöhungen braucht und Zweitens wann genau wieder ein vernünftiges Wachstum in den grossen Volkswirtschaften erreicht werden kann, vielleicht 1% bis 1,5% wäre ein minimales erträgliches Ziel. Wenn der Markt Fördererhöhungen braucht, dann gehe ich von Durchschnittspreisen von etwa 250-350USD aus, auch Preisspitzen von über 500Dollar sind schnell wieder erreichbar.
Bei 150Dollar Steinkohlepreis wird es sehr eng, fällt der Preis dann langfristig weiter, würden nur weltweite Förderrückgänge den Preis zur Stabilität bringen.


Viele Grüsse Punicamelon

[DJHLS]

Zitat von Punicamelon: Die Aktie ist momentan billig, mit 3,5% Kontrolle der weltweiten Steinkohleförderung einer der Grössten und solidesten überhaupt, KGV etwa bei 10.
Das grösste Problem ist derzeit der fallende Steinkohleweltmarktpreis. Viele grosse Volkswirtschaften sind wieder nahezu bei Nullwachstum und deshalb nähert sich auch der Steinkohlepreis den direkten Förderkosten.
Peabody ist kerngesund, hat einen hohen Cashflow, eine gute Infrastruktur, aber entscheidend ist, wo ein realistischer Durchschnittspreis für Steinkohle erreicht wird.
Die Zukunft der Steinkohle hängt vor allen Dingen davon ab, ob der Markt auf 5 oder 10Jahressicht Fördererhöhungen braucht und Zweitens wann genau wieder ein vernünftiges Wachstum in den grossen Volkswirtschaften erreicht werden kann, vielleicht 1% bis 1,5% wäre ein minimales erträgliches Ziel. Wenn der Markt Fördererhöhungen braucht, dann gehe ich von Durchschnittspreisen von etwa 250-350USD aus, auch Preisspitzen von über 500Dollar sind schnell wieder erreichbar.
Bei 150Dollar Steinkohlepreis wird es sehr eng, fällt der Preis dann langfristig weiter, würden nur weltweite Förderrückgänge den Preis zur Stabilität bringen.


Viele Grüsse Punicamelon

Bin zu 25,16 USD mit einer kleinen Position eingestiegen und sofort ist der Kurs am Freitag noch bis auf 23,7 USD runtergegangen.

Zu berücksichtigen ist m. E. das die USA den Neubau von Kohlekraftwerken jüngst massiv reguliert haben. Das bremst langfristig die Nachfrage. Die ist in den USA durch den warmen Winter ohnehin gesunken, aber das dürfte ein temporärer Effekt gewesen sein.

Entscheidender ist in den USA der Preis für Erdgas, denn wenn der dauerhaft niedrige bleibt, wird weiter von Kohle auf Erdgas zur Verstromung gewechselt. Der Grund für meinen Einstieg war aber, dass meiner Meinung nach der Erdgaspreis seinen Boden gefunden hatte.

Der andere Großverbraucher von Kohle sind Stahlwerke und da sieht es momentan wohl auch sehr bescheiden aus. BTU-Konkurrent PCX rechnet bereits mit der Insolvenz eines Hauptabnehmer von Met Coal.

[Punicamelon]

Der Weltkohlepreis ist letzte Woche nochmals kräftig in die Knie gegangen und deutlich unter die 200USD gefallen, daher die erneuten Rabatte auf Peabody.
Aber, wir stehen sehr nahe vor den 2008er/2009er Tiefs, ein Punkt, an dem sogar subventionierte Deutsche Kraftwerkssteinkohle liegt. Das 2009er Tief war ca bei 114USD. Je weiter der Kohlepreis fällt, desto unrentabler wird die Steinkohleförderung/ oder muss sogar weggeschnitten werden. Angesichts der massiven Neubauten von Kohlekraftwerken in Europa und Asien ist davon kaum auszugehen.
Erdgas ist angesprungen, weil der Sommer begann und Energie für Klimaanlagen benötigt wird.
Bei Steinkohle sieht das Anders aus. Steinkohle ist schwach, weil die Weltkonjunktur hinkt durch das Schuldenproblem und das Austrocknen der Anleihenmärkte. Es wird zu viel gespart. Auch die Weltbörsen stehen noch sehr hoch, wohlmöglich zu hoch für eine erneute Konjunkturerholung.

Peabody ist günstig, aber man sollte zwingend Cash bereit halten, um seine Aktienpositionen verdoppeln zu können, falls Steinkohle doch Richtung 100 marschiert, dann ist endgültig aggressives Kaufen angesagt.

[Choleriker]

Zitat von Punicamelon: Peabody ist günstig, aber man sollte zwingend Cash bereit halten, um seine Aktienpositionen verdoppeln zu können, falls Steinkohle doch Richtung 100 marschiert, dann ist endgültig aggressives Kaufen angesagt.

Ich wollte heute nachkaufen (nicht viel, nicht aggressiv), aber warte doch noch ab. Die nächste Schreckensmeldung aus dem Polituniversum kommt bestimmt.

[Choleriker]

Heute abend Kurssturz wegen Insolvenzgerüchten über Patriot Coal:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/patriot-coal-plunges-report-ba…

[Punicamelon]

und hier der Chart für US-Kohle, auch nicht ganz unwichtig für Peabody!

[larsuwe]

Auch für Peabody sieht es weiter nicht so gut aus.Sind nun auch in Deutschland wieder unter die Marke von 20,-Euro gefallen.Alle Kohlewerte haben es zur Zeit echt schwehr!.Gruß Lars

[Punicamelon]

Der Weltkohlepreis geht weiterhin sturzflugartig nach unten, fast mehrere Dollar täglich, jetzt 147USD, sehr beeindruckend.
Die Weltkonjunktur ist stark angeschlagen und selbst bei Marktschwergewichten wie Deutschland fallen die Importe und Exporte gesamtwirtschaftlich deutlich, eine grössere Indices-Korrektur deutet sich hier möglicherweise an, ein Börsencrash nicht ausgeschlossen.

Bei einer Aktie wie Peabody werden natürlich immer längerfristige Durchschnitte berechnet, aber, wenn es hier tatsächlich einen allerletzten -25% Ausverkauf gibt, sollte man zwingend zuschlagen, das ist meine Meinung.

[kfuchs]

Energiewende? Kohle-Nachfrage wächst am stärksten
22.06.2012 - 09:00 | Quelle: Investmentecke

Deutschland ringt weiter um die Ausgestaltung der Energiewende und den Ausstieg aus der Kernenergie. Im globalen Maßstab spielt die Musik dessen ungeachtet weiter bei den fossilen Energieträgern. Nach dem gerade vorgelegten Welt-Energie-Report von BP decken Öl, Kohle und Gas noch immer 87 Prozent des weltweiten Verbrauchs. Brennstoff Nummer 1 ist weiterhin Erdöl mit 33,1 Prozent. Direkt dahinter folgt Kohle mit 30,4 Prozent.

Bis hierhin nicht überraschend. Interessant ist aber, dass der Verbrauch von Kohle im vergangenen Jahr die größte Zuwachsrate verzeichnete. Plus 5,4 Prozent, hat BP errechnet, wohingegen beim Öl nur ein mageres Plus von 0,8 Prozent und bei Gas ein Zuwachs von 2,2 Prozent steht.

Dazu passt eine unlängst vorgelegte Kurzstudie aus dem Rohstoff-Research der Commerzbank. Darin hatten die Analysten darauf verwiesen, dass Kohle derzeit deutlich unterschätzt wird und der Preissturz der vergangenen Monate überzogen sein könnte. Auf Jahressicht hat der Preis für eine Tonne Kohle um mehr als 25 Prozent nachgegeben und liegt damit so niedrig wie seit zwei Jahren nicht mehr. Wichtigste Gründe der Preisschwäche sind die schwache Konjunktur (in Europa), der massive Preisverfall beim Kohle-Wettbewerber Erdgas (in den USA) und die Sondersituation nach dem Tsunami-Unglück (in Japan).

Dem gegenüber steht aber (wie üblich) China als Hoffnungsträger. Das Land ist in den vergangenen Jahren vom Kohle-Exporteur zum größten Importeur geworden. Derzeit hat zwar auch Chinas Konjunktur an Dampf verloren, allerdings reagieren die Chinesen gerade bei Rohstoffen oft intelligenter und antizyklischer als die (angeblich überlegenen) Marktwirtschaftler. Meint: Sie nutzen Preisschwächen konsequenter aus, um entsprechende Vorräte anzulegen. Nach dem drastischen Preisverfall, könnte da nun also wieder neue Nachfrage aufkommen.

Als zweiten Hoffnungsträger macht die Commerzbank Indien aus. Deren staatlich kontrolliertes Unternehmen Coal India ist zwar der größte Kohleproduzent, trotzdem könnte die Eigenproduktion nicht ausreichen, um den Bedarf zu decken. Schon 2011 stiegen die Importe um 30 Prozent und dieser Trend könnte sich weiter fortsetzen.
Alles zusammen genommen, ergibt sich für den Kohlepreis eine deutlich aufwärts gerichtete Prognose. Die Commerzbank sieht den Preis bis Ende 2013 auf 115 Dollar je Tonne steigen, was einem Anstieg von 35 Prozent entspräche. Gestützt wird die Erwartung auch von den Terminpreisen an der ICE, die ebenfalls einen deutlichen Anstieg implizieren.

[larsuwe]

Geht es auch noch in Richtung 15,-Euro?.Dann werde ich mir noch welche einsammeln.Gruß Lars

[DJHLS]

Zitat von larsuwe: Geht es auch noch in Richtung 15,-Euro?.Dann werde ich mir noch welche einsammeln.Gruß Lars

Ich schätze, dass die Insolvenz von Patriot Coal noch lange nicht der Höhepunkt der Kohle-Krise ist.

So sieht es auch dieser milliardenschwere Branchenkenner und US-Kohle-Tycoon:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/wilbur-ross-says-u-…

Dieser Aussie-Tycoon scheint andere Prognosen zu haben:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-13/tinkler-leads-a-5-3…

[DJHLS]

Q2-Zhlen von Peabody heute:
July 24 More on Peabody Energy (BTU): Q2 sales volumes were 57.4M tons, on par with the prior year as increases from Australia and in trading and brokerage offset lower U.S. production. Company issues downside guidance for Q3, seeing EPS of $0.20-0.45 vs. $0.65 analyst consensus

Es zeigt sich der Nutzen der geografischen Diversifikation. Die Firma verdient immer noch Geld und wird auch weiterhin wenn auch etwas weniger Geld verdienen. BTU wird die Kohlekrise überleben.

[DJHLS]

Ich halte ja nicht so viel von den Experten der Wirtschaftswoche und erst recht nicht von ihren publizierten Analysen. Diese hier ist allerdings ein Beispiel für relativ gute Information:

Peabody Energy-Aktie: Konzern besitzt Kohlereserven für mindestens 40 Jahre
Düsseldorf (www.aktiencheck.de) - Die Experten der "Wirtschaftswoche" sehen bei der Aktie von Peabody Energy (<US7045491047>/ <US7045491047> ein erhöhtes, aber positives Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis. Der Konzern sei der größte Kohleproduzent der Welt. Insgesamt verfüge das Unternehmen über Reserven von rund 10 Mrd. Tonnen. Das entspreche einer Reichweite von mindestens 40 Jahren. Derzeit sei man im Besitz von 34 Vorkommen in sicheren Regionen wie den USA und Australien. Die Gesellschaft sei aber selbstverständlich auch auf der Suche nach neuen Vorkommen. Die momentane konjunkturelle Schwäche belaste Peabody Energy. Auf der einen Seite hätten die Kraftwerke ihre Vorräte aufgefüllt. Somit müssten sie nicht gleich wieder neu bestellen. Auf der anderen Seite verfüge der Konzern über einen hohen Anteil metallurgischer Kohle, welche in der Stahlindustrie Verwendung finde. Doch der gehe es aktuell ebenfalls nicht besonders gut. Ein nachlassender Kohleverbrauch sei auf langfristige Sicht allerdings nicht zu erwarten. Vonseiten der Internationalen Energieagentur werde eher damit gerechnet, dass die weltweite Kohlenachfrage bis zum Jahr 2035 um zwei Drittel steigen werde. Für das laufende Jahr werde erwartet, dass Peabody Energy aufgrund der niedrigeren Kohlepreise wahrscheinlich weniger verdiene als im Vorjahr. Doch selbst unter der Annahme eines Gewinns von 700 bis 750 Mio. USD ergebe sich bei einem Kurs von 24 USD ein KGV von 9. Der Börsenwert von 6,6 Mrd. USD werde größtenteils durch Eigenkapital unterfüttert. Somit würden sich auch die Nettoschulden von gut 6 Mrd. USD relativieren. Nach Meinung der Experten der "Wirtschaftswoche" bietet die Aktie von Peabody Energy ein erhöhtes, aber dennoch positives Chance-Risiko-Profil. Ein Stopp sollte bei 21,60 USD platziert werden. (Ausgabe 26) (26.06.2012/ac/a/a)

[R-BgO]

Habe meine Position heute von den ersten Ansichtsstücken aus auf das 10-fache aufgestockt

[kfuchs]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.511.207 von R-BgO am 20.08.12 11:30:08

Sieht man (du ) denn da schon eine Umkehrformation, sprich Trendwende?!

[Choleriker]

Zitat von kfuchs: Sieht man (du ) denn da schon eine Umkehrformation, sprich Trendwende?!

Egal. Unters Kopfkissen legen und ein paar Jahre lang ein Nickerchen machen.

[Punicamelon]

Der Aktienkurs springt plötzlich an! Der Grund ist, dass der Steinkohlepreis saisonal anzieht wegen der bevorstehenden kalten Jahreszeit.
Peabody profitiert selbstverständlich von höheren Steinkohlepreisen, aber die Frage ist nun, wie stark und nachhaltig die Rallay ist.

[walue]

Zitat von DJHLS: Q2-Zhlen von Peabody heute:
July 24 More on Peabody Energy (BTU): Q2 sales volumes were 57.4M tons, on par with the prior year as increases from Australia and in trading and brokerage offset lower U.S. production. Company issues downside guidance for Q3, seeing EPS of $0.20-0.45 vs. $0.65 analyst consensus

Es zeigt sich der Nutzen der geografischen Diversifikation. Die Firma verdient immer noch Geld und wird auch weiterhin wenn auch etwas weniger Geld verdienen. BTU wird die Kohlekrise überleben.

Heute die Q2-Zahlen .
Anscheinend werden die schwarzen Zahlen gefeiert.
200 Tg Linie erobert.
Aufwärtstrend !
Heute verkauft, morgen bei Rücksetzer, so er denn kommt, Rückkauf.
Wenn nicht muss ich wohl teurer wieder Nachkaufen.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.517.291 von kfuchs am 21.08.12 18:08:01

sorry, erst jetzt gesehen

charts sind für mich keine Grundlage, insoweit "nein"

[Choleriker]

Heute großes Blutbad ...

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/peabody-expects-q1-loss-…

... aber die Welt dreht sich weiter.

HALTEN.

[aski06]

vielleicht doch eine kleine posi aufbauen

Fracking:
Amerika im GasrauschSeite 3/4: "Es heißt, Schiefergas sei nichts als ein gigantisches Schneeballsystem

http://www.zeit.de/2013/07/Fracking-USA-Erdgas-Umwelt/seite-…

[aski06]

Arch Coal, Peabody Energy See Sharp Rises in Short Interest

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/13/04/3535…

[aski06]

Peabody's Q1 Results And Coal Outlook http://seekingalpha.com/article/1364671-peabody-s-q1-results…

[Choleriker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.530.899 von aski06 am 29.04.13 11:52:01

Einfach halten. Zähne zubeißen und durch.

[larsuwe]

Die Marke von 10 Euro wird auch noch durchbrochen werden!.

[Choleriker]

Egal.

http://www.miningscout.de/blog/2013/06/13/kohle-ohne-das-sch…

[OhMyGosh]

Bin seit dem 03.07. nun auch hier dabei, long term Spekulation, und zweites Kohle-Invest nach ANR... mal schauen, was draus wird.

[Oberkassel]

Seit Frühjahr 2011 hat die Aktie des Kohleproduzenten aus Missouri rund 75% an wert verloren.

Kohle ist an der Wall Street in Ungnade gefallen. Denn die Kraftwerke rüsten auf Erdgas um. Für Value Jäger bietet sich eine Chance.
Peadbody notiert lediglich zum Buchwert.

Experten erwarten in 2014 eine Stabilisierung des Marktes.

Der Umsatz soll in 2014 um 10% und somit um 7,8 Mrd Dollar zulegen.
Pro Aktie könnte ein Ergebnis von 0,65 Dollar drin sein.

Kohle ist in absehbarer Zeit nicht substituierbar durch Gas, Wind usw...
Kohle ist der Energieträger der am schnellstens wächst.

Peadbody hat 28 Minien in Amerika und Australien, Kohlevorräte von über 9,3 Mrd Tonnen. Peadbody hat seine Investionen in 2013 um 50% gesenkt.

Es lockt eine Dividendenrendite von rund 2%.
Stopp: 11.00 Ziel 17.00 EUR Stand 13,27 EUR,

Source: Euro am Sonntag

Oberkassler

[OhMyGosh]

Seit meinem Anstieg hat die Aktie rund 40% (währungsunbereinigt) an Wert gewonnen. Kann man auch mal sagen, wo man ja sonst nur hört, dass Kohletitel so und soviel Prozent an Wert verloren habe....

Halte trotzdem an Peabody (konservativer, thermal coal lastig) wie auch an ANR (met coal, eher spekulativ) fest... man ist anscheinend durch das Tal durch, börsentechnisch wie auch operativ. Von boom Zeiten ist man logischerweise noch lange weg.... sollte in den USA aber im shale Sektor eine richtig schlechte Nachricht kommen, wird das für Kurs-Kapriolen bei Kohletiteln sorgen. Das billige Geld ist auch nicht schädlich für Rohstoffpreise... von daher: keep cool.

[OhMyGosh]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 45.797.964 von OhMyGosh am 09.11.13 10:53:01

Einstieg statt Anstieg; freudscher Versprecher.

[Choleriker]

Eine feste Burg ist unsere Kohle!

[R-BgO]

interessante Info zu Erdgaspreisen vs. Kohle: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2075033-peabody-better-therm…

[R-BgO]

bis auf ein Erinnerungsstück verkauft

[Choleriker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.952.368 von R-BgO am 09.05.14 14:03:46

Ich verkaufe vielleicht, wenn mein Einstiegskurs (EUR 20) merklich überschritten wurde. Will ja schließlich Gewinn machen. Naja, das könnte noch ein paar Wochen dauern...

Die Ausschüttung finanziert immerhin ein gepflegtes Weizen pro Monat in einer Gastwirtschaft. Wenn der Kohlepreis durch die Decke geht, werden es zwei, drei, vier werden...

Ironie aus.

[El_Matador]

peabody energy und cloud peak energy, die hauptsaechlich in wyoming zu relativ niedrigen kosten produzieren, werden vielleicht zu den ueberlebenden der branche zaehlen, wenn der clean power plan der us-regierung trotz einspruechen der republikaner und der kohlelobby voranschreitet. die produzenten, die ihre kohlegruben hauptsaechlich in west virginia und kentucky haben, wie alpha natural resources und arch coal, werden spaetestens in ein paar jahren keine liquiditaet mehr haben, sofern sich am gas-markt nichts zu ihren gunsten aendert. es gibt im moment wenige branchen, die so extrem spekulativ sind, wie amerikanische kohle.

[Choleriker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.078.499 von El_Matador am 19.10.14 19:16:56

Der vorletzten Gurke in meinem Depot drücke ich alle drei Daumen. Bis zum Einstandskurs EUR 20 ist es nicht mehr sooo weit, und EUR 40 winken tief am Horizont. Man muß nur fest dran glauben!

[cure]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.970.742 von Choleriker am 04.02.15 00:23:47

Zitat von Choleriker: Der vorletzten Gurke in meinem Depot drücke ich alle drei Daumen. Bis zum Einstandskurs EUR 20 ist es nicht mehr sooo weit, und EUR 40 winken tief am Horizont. Man muß nur fest dran glauben!

20 €

[cure]

so...bin seit gestern mal mit ein paar K Stück um die 4 dabei ...hoffen wir mal ..das du ,cholerika, deine 20 wieder siehst ..hätte nix dagegen ..vielleicht schlägt ja --doch-- das Übernahmegespenst zu.

[Osito2011]

Das Ding stand vor 4 Jahren auf fast 50 Euro !! Und jtzt ? nicht mehr weit zum pennystock....

[DomRuinart]

Zu den Kursen kann man mal was probieren.
Die sind super vertreten in den Niedrigkosten-Basins in den USA und Australien.
Klar, die Fundamentals sind nicht die besten, aber die Entwicklungen in Indien und China und der starke Rückgang an Supply wird der Kohle in meinen Augen ein gewaltiges Comeback bescheren.
Wer wie ich auf steigende Kohlepreise setzt, kommt an Peabody eigentlich nicht vorbei. Zusätzlich wird der US-Wahlkampf hier für einige Bewegung sorgen und der RSI ist im Augenblick gnadenlos überverkauft.
Ich denke ein guter Zeitpunkt für einen kleinen Zock.

[R-BgO]

was haltet Ihr von den Anleihen?

sind alle inzwischen größenordnungsmäßig bei 50%, d.h. laufende Verzinsung 12-14% und Verdoppelung bis Fälligkeit...

WENN sie planmäßig bedient werden

[Conger]

Ich habe so ein Zucken in den Fingern bei den Anleihen. Hier ist eine.

http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1G91Z-Peabody-Energy-Anlei…

Sie lauft aber bis 2022 und da muss man dann auch eine Zinserhoehung einberechnen. Soll ichs wirklich machen oder lass ichs lieber sein, Jein...

[Conger]

Korrektur: lauft bis 2021

[El_Matador]

was war der grund fuer den starken zusaetzlichen kursrueckgang der us-kohleaktien am freitag?

walter energy sollte man sich nicht zumuten, da de-facto insolvent.

aber vielleicht eine spekulative position von peabody bei $2 ? ich war bislang nicht dabei.

frage an die investierten: wenn ihr nicht dabei sein wuerdet, kaeme das fuer euch jetzt noch infrage?

[El_Matador]

ich gebe die antwort auf meine frage selbst:

seekingalpha.com
Coal shares sink amid worries over mine liability funding
Jun 12 2015, 15:11 ET | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Peabody Energy (BTU -8.1%) and Arch Coal (ACI -12.3%) plunge to all-time intraday lows amid concerns that they will have to pay more for insurance that covers environmental damage.

"Investors don’t know how to handicap this self-bonding issue,” says Doyle Trading CEO Ted O’Brien. "Until the companies come out and give Wall Street certainty that they know how to deal with it, I think we’re going to be stuck in this vortex."

Wyoming regulators have told Alpha Natural Resources (ANR -10.6%) that it no longer qualifies for a self-bonding program which allows coal producers to cheaply insure their clean-up costs in case of bankruptcy, and are reviewing financial data from BTU and ACI to see if they still qualify.

Two other coal miners, Cloud Peak Energy (CLD -6.7%) and Walter Energy (WLT -8.2%), also have sunk to record intraday lows.

[larsuwe]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 49.972.476 von El_Matador am 14.06.15 20:37:28

kein Boden in Sicht !.

Ich frage mich schon seit anfang des Jahres, wo wir denn nun endlich eine Bodenbildung sehen werden ?.Wenn es so weiter geht ,werden wir auch noch unter die Marke von 2,-Euro rutschen, ich glaube auch Aktienkurse von 1,50Euro sind noch locker möglich.Mal schauen, was die nächsten Wochen uns bringen werden?.

[tomgain]

Peabody Energy

Steht hier schon der Tod vor der Tür...?

[cure]

tja ...wo macht man den nächten Versuch ...mit engem SL ....die Aktie ist eigentlich vollkommen überverkauft ....20-40 % Korrektur kann jederzeit anstehen ...die man traden kann ..Frage ist von welchem Niveua aus ......kommt das Unternehmen nochmal auf die Beine ...immmerhin haben wir hier keine Frittenbude sonden reden vom größen Kohleplayer weltweit ...schon ein schlechter Witz, dass hier sogar noch Div. bezahlt wird ....

Der Chart sieht ehr wie aus dem beerdigten ehmaligen n.Markt .....

Schwierig

[DomRuinart]

Peabody Energy (BTU): Time To Pick Up The Knife

By Martin Tillier
Posted on Tue, 16 June 2015 22:16

There is an old cliché often cited by traders that attempting to catch a falling knife is an extremely dangerous thing to do, but that doesn’t mean that picking one up off the ground isn’t occasionally worth the risk. The phrase “The U.S. coal industry is dead…” has been uttered so many times in the last six months that it has become conventional wisdom. Stocks in the industry have fallen in spectacular fashion, with those companies that have avoided bankruptcy so far losing over 90 percent of their value over the last five years or so. Peabody Energy (BTU) is no exception, but at these super depressed levels BTU may represent an opportunity for nimble traders with an appetite for risk.

The fact is that the coal industry, while undoubtedly in dire straits, is not dead yet, it’s just that stocks are priced that way. That doesn’t mean that coal has a bright future, it certainly doesn’t, but if conventional wisdom is put to one side it is hard to state that it has none at all. Coal still accounts for around 40 percent of the world’s electricity, and according to the IEA, overall demand will rise through at least 2019.

Coal prices, and stock in companies that produce it, have not tumbled without good reason, however. The big drop in oil prices last year dragged all energy prices with it but coal was particularly hard hit for many reasons. Firstly, the demand outlook for coal has worsened considerably. China has cut imports massively; the total imported fell 42 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter of this year. A political push to reduce emissions, cheaper natural gas and slowing growth in the economy have combined into a perfect storm for coal in what was, until recently, the world’s fastest growing economy. Those same factors have also reduced demand in the U.S. and most of the world…with one notable exception.

India, the third largest importer of coal in the world, and now the fastest growing economy in the world according to the latest estimates, actually increased coal imports in 2014/5 by a respectable 19 percent. As India imports primarily from Australia and Asia, that is of little use to most U.S. producers, but once again with one notable exception…Peabody Energy. Around 40 percent of that company’s revenue comes from their Australian operations, so they are uniquely placed amongst U.S. producers to benefit from continued growth in India.

That alternative revenue source, combined with some aggressive action by management to cut U.S. costs earlier this month, makes Peabody a likely survivor as the industry collapses, and that, in turn, makes the 97 percent decline in the stock price look somewhat overdone. At around $2.40 at the time of writing, BTU looks like the risk reward ratio has swung in its favor. With over 30 percent of the total stock being sold short, simply a lack of bad news over the next few weeks could be enough to generate a significant rally. There is a downside, for sure, most notably if the current crisis forces a massive increase in insurance costs, but there is an awful lot of bad news priced in at these levels.

It should be stressed that this is a trade idea, not an investment. There is still an enormous amount of risk and a total loss is a possibility, so only capital set aside for high risk trading should be used. It seems, though, on examination of the evidence, that the market is overestimating the risk of bankruptcy for BTU. From a long term perspective investing in a coal company may seem like stupidity in the extreme, but this is not a long term trade. The idea is to benefit from an oversold position at these levels and a short squeeze that will almost certainly come at some point. On that basis a strong argument can be made that the knife that is BTU has already hit the floor, and picking it up here may be a smart thing to do.

By Martin Tillier of Oilprice.com

[DomRuinart]

"Smart Money" kehrt zurück und gleichzeitig sind über 26% aller Aktien leerverkauft...short squeeze ante portas?

Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) is the second-largest energy investment of Kopernik Global Investors, with the fund holding 9.28 million shares valued at $45.67 million. The investment manager boosted his position in the energy company by 101% during the first quarter. However, the investment hasn’t paid off very well thus far, as the shares of Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) have dropped 68.23% year-to-date. It is among one of the biggest private-sector coal producers in the world, but the company is struggling to keep up with the competition. In a recent announcement, Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) announced the immediate shutdown of its Evansville office, which has 70 employees. The company is following a company-wide cost-cutting program under which it is likely to save up to $45 million per year. The layoffs would include 250 corporate and regional office job cuts along with the closure of two offices. The other office to shut down under this plan is in Gillette, Wyoming, and this program will be complete by the end of this month. Dimitry Balyasny’s Balyasny Asset Management and Ken Griffin‘s Citadel Investment Group are among the other major investment firms holding stakes in Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU).

Quelle: Insider Monkey

[tomgain]

Peabody Energy

Es gibt einen neuen Beitrag hierzu.

Der Link:
http://www.ariva.de/forum/PEABODY-perfekte-Einstiegsgelegenh…

[cure]

ich suche auch meinen zweiten Versuch ....

Fundamental steht Peab. eigentlich gar nicht so schlecht da ...wenn da nicht die Verschuldung wäre ....ein Blick auf die Bonds spricht Bände ......Refinanzierung momentan ausgeschlossen .
I
ch verzichte darauf die hier zu nennen ...kann jeder selber mal schaun ...vielleicht auch eine Möglichkeit das Risiko hier etwas zu streuen ..wegen USD momantan nicht unbedingt die schlechteste Währung wenn man bedenkt was der Euro für (Ouzo)Probleme mitschleppt ...und Spanien steht vor der nächsten Tür ......

Für den der hier mitspielt ist natürlich ein enger S.loss obligatorisch ..wo der liegt ...bei 5 -10-15 % unter KK muss halt jeder selber wissen .....es gibt hier wohl immer noch Leute, die das nicht kapieren bzw. so unerfahren sind, dass dies auch noch gesagt werden muss ...wobei die eigentlich nicht an die Börse mit Ihrem Taschengeld gehören ....

Bis auf einige (kaum gelaufene ) Daxwerte würde ich momentan keinen Wert mehr ohne SL kaufen ....richtig investieren würde ich eh erst wieder bei Dax 5000 .... die Party ist durch ...Schäfchen sollte man im Trocken längst haben nach der genialesten Rally der Neuzeit .....kann noch ein bischen weiter laufen ..steigen ...Dax 13000 ..wenn Griechen dann gerettet sind und Ihre ganzen Forderungen durch haben ......dafür lohnt es aber nicht mehr richtig Geld in die Hand zu nehmen ...daher hier und da mal mit engem SL spielen ...

Mission Füße hoch ..und sich ne schöne Zeit machen bis der Dax mal wieder um die Häfte gefallen ist / 1-10 Jahre dauert das wohl ....und dann sollte man sehr genau schaun ob es sich lohnt schon/wieder richig Geld in die Hand zu nehmen ...

Cure

[cure]

Bond oder Aktie ....hier mal ein Beispiel ....

[R-BgO]

The Latest Sign That Coal Is Getting Killed

Coal is a sick dragon, and the bond market wields a heavy sword
July 13, 2015
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/news/2015/07/the-latest-…

Coal is having a hard time lately. U.S. power plants are switching to natural gas, environmental restrictions are kicking in, and the industry is being derided as the world's No. 1 climate criminal. Prices have crashed, sure, but for a real sense of coal's diminishing prospects, check out what's happening in the bond market.

Bonds are where coal companies turn to raise money for such things as new mines and environmental cleanups. But investors are increasingly reluctant to lend to them. Coal bond prices tumbled 17 percent in the second quarter, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence. It's the fourth consecutive quarter of price declines and the worst performance of any industry group by a long shot.

Bonds fluctuate less than stocks, because the payoff is fixed and pretty much guaranteed as long as the borrower remains solvent. A 17 percent decline is huge, and it happened at a time when other energy bonds — oil and gas — were rising. Three of America's biggest coal producers had the worst-performing bonds for the quarter:

Alpha Natural Resources: -70 percent
Peabody: -40 percent
Arch: -30 percent

Coal powered the industrial revolution and helped lift much of humanity out of poverty, but its glory days have reached an end. Here are four of the biggest pressures facing the industry:


1. The U.S. Grid Is Changing
About 17 percent of U.S. coal-fired power generation will disappear over the next few years, according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). Obstacles include age, the abundance of cheap natural gas, and new EPA rules to cut pollution. Here's a great visual breakdown of what's happening to U.S. coal power.

Coal Plants on the Way Out by 2020

Source: Bloomberg Business / BNEF

The map shows coal plants in 2010 that may be headed for retirement. Blue circles represent plants that will be shuttered by 2020, while yellow will convert to gas, and red have undetermined futures. Big coal won a small victory over the EPA's new mercury restrictions at the Supreme Court in June, but it's most likely a temporary reprieve.

2. Even China Is Approaching Peak Coal
The biggest power investments are now happening in renewable energy, but fossil fuels will be with us for decades to come. The global burning of coal won't peak on a global scale until around 2025, according to BNEF. But that doesn't indicate a thriving industry. Even China, the world's biggest consumer of coal, wants to be rid of it.

While China's electricity demand will soar in the coming decades, its coal use will remain relatively flat, peaking by 2030 and then declining, according to BNEF. The pollution is too thick and the alternatives too cheap for coal to flourish. The chart below shows China's ever-falling price of wind power (blue) and solar (yellow) vs. the rising cost of coal (dark gray) and natural gas (light gray) over the next 25 years.

Wind and Solar Will Win the Price War

Source: Bloomberg Business / BNEF

3. Financial Distress
The declining prices of bonds is a huge problem for U.S. coal companies. When bond prices fall, the cost of borrowing money goes up. And coal needs more money.

Coal companies are allowed to avoid costly insurance premiums by showing they have the capital to clean up after themselves. It's called self-bonding. This year the federal government has started taking a closer look at whether the struggling coal companies still qualify.

In May, the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality told Alpha Natural Resources it no longer qualifies for self-bonding in the state, and the company has until Aug. 24 to post collateral or cash against $411 million of reclamation liabilities. The department last week confirmed that Peabody, the largest U.S. coal producer, can continue to self-bond.

4. Renewables Are ...
Coal is an industry in terminal decline, and financial markets are reflecting this new reality. Drastic new energy policies are still needed to avoid catastrophic climate change, according to nearly every credible analysis. But even setting aside the environmental and health issues, renewables are on a trajectory to outcompete fossil fuels, starting with coal. Between now and 2040, two-thirds of the money spent on adding new electricity capacity worldwide will be spent on renewables, according to BNEF. The table below forecasts the proportion of renewable electricity in select countries by 2040.

Winning


In the past year, global stock prices for coal companies are down almost 50 percent, but it's in the bond market that coal is really getting hammered. The focus of energy finance has shifted from coal to renewables, and it's not likely to turn back.

[larsuwe]

Guten Morgen ,Gestern gab es dann den zu erwartenen Kursanstieg von 1,04Euro auf 1,28Euro ein Plus von 20% Prozent.Vielleicht haben wir hier ersteinmal den Boden erreicht.Mal schauen wie wir heute an der Heimatbörse eröffnen werden?. Habe gestern den Fuß in die Tür gesetzt und meine erste Position gekauft,eigentlich sollte hier doch über einen längeren Zeitraum von 2-5 Jahren eine ordentliche Kohlepreis + Aktiensteigerung möglich sein .Da wir hier doch immerhin das größte Kohleunternehmen der USA und der Welt haben !. Ist sonst noch jemand in den letzten Tagen hier eingestiegen ?. Grüße Lars

[larsuwe]

Live Chart von der Heimatbörse !

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=NY%5EBTU&t=37&p…

[DomRuinart]

Die Messe ist noch nicht gelesen...

Billionaire George Soros warms up to coal as stock prices hit bottom


By Malia Zimmerman
Published August 19, 2015
FoxNews.com


Billionaire investor George Soros, who has demonized fossil fuels for years through his think tanks and political contributions, seems to have warmed up to Big Coal now that stocks are dirt cheap.

The left-wing hedge fund legend has raised eyebrows with major purchases of stock in two large coal companies, firms his critics say he helped bring to their knees. While buying low is the hallmark of any shrewd investor, buying coal goes against the political and environmental ideology Soros has long espoused.

“I find it very interesting that George Soros would buy shares in those coal companies,” said Daniel Simmons, vice president for Policy at the Washington DC-based free market energy group, Institute for Energy Research. “I am confused given the non profits he funds and how hard they have worked to demonize coal.”

Soros, whose Climate Policy Initiative think tank recently urged the world to stop using fossil fuels in general and coal in particular, snapped up 1 million shares of Peabody Energy and half a million shares of Arch Coal, giving him significant stakes in what’s left of the U.S. coal industry.

The trades would have cost Soros a lot more six years ago, when Peabody, which trades under the symbol BTU, was at about $90 a share. Under the Obama administration, which has punished the coal industry with costly mandates and regulation, Peabody shares have fallen to around $1.

Neither Soros nor his New York-based investment firm, Soros Fund Management, would comment on the coal play, citing a longstanding policy of not discussing investments.

The 85-year-old hedge fund manager has a net worth of $24.2 billion, according to Forbes.com, which makes him the 19th wealthiest person in U.S. and second among hedge fund managers.

The most recent filing shows Soros Fund Management holds stakes in 263 companies with a total value of nearly $11 billion.

The filing shows the purchases of 553,200 shares of Arch Coal for $188,000 and an investment of $2,254,000 into Peabody Energy for 1,029,400 shares, which means he’s lost money on both so far. Peabody, the biggest coal producer in the U.S. by output, said in a recent statement that it “has been trying to turn itself around as it faces challenges from low natural-gas prices, a glut of global coal supplies, weakened demand from China and a growing public call to cut carbon emissions.”

Soros Fund Management previously held $234 million in shares in the coal producing company, CONSOL Energy, but sold the shares over the last year, according to SNL.com.

Free market energy experts note Soros has invested more than a billion dollars into think tanks, lobbyists, political action committees and politicians who have pushed for regulations that have nearly destroyed the coal industry, in favor of so called “clean energy.”

Soros invested $1 billion in clean energy technology beginning in 2009, according to Bloomberg News. He also founded the Climate Policy Initiative, a San Francisco-based organization, in which he is investing $100 million over a decade, Bloomberg News reports. Among its partners is the UK Department of Energy & Climate Change, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety, and the U.S. Department of State. The Climate Policy Initiative released a report last year suggesting the world should transition away from coal.

Soros' Open Society Foundations, which has assets of $1.5 million, according to its most recent IRS 990 tax form, claims over the last three decades expenditures of $12 billion.

Soros was convicted in a French court in 2009 of insider trading, which cost him the equivalent of $2.5 million in fines. That was the amount French prosecutors claimed he made 14 years ago after investing, allegedly with insider knowledge, in the French bank Société Générale - a charge Soros denied.

FECINfo.com, the Political Moneyline database of Federal Election Commission records for donations that George Soros made during the 2012, 2014, and 2016 election cycles, shows 139 records for more than $8.8 million.

In 2015, he made two contributions of $1 million each to Priorities USA Action Super PAC and American Bridge 21st Century Super PAC. He initially supported Hillary Clinton for President when he donated $25,000 to the Ready For Hillary PAC in 2013.

Soros backed President Obama, who notably campaigned in 2008 shutting down the coal industry, a promise industry experts say he’s kept.

“The drop in coal market stock is directly related to the promise that Obama made to his environmental extremist supporters – ‘you can build coal fired power plants, but we will shut them down,’” said John Sparr, a mining engineer and geologist who specializes in the coal industry.

Investments in coal under current conditions bear little risk given the low stock prices.

“With markets dwindling, coal companies shutting down and workers being laid off, it is no wonder that stocks are crashing,” Sparr said.

But should there be a change in the regulatory climate, coal stocks could become a bargain.
The important thing about coal, Simmons said, is a little over 10 years ago, coal produced 50 percent of energy in the U.S. and that is now at 40 percent and continuing to trend downward.

Michael South, a UK-based mining and energy consultant, told FoxNews.com that while coal prices have suffered around the world in part because of a drop in demand from China and other countries, and fracking, which produced natural gas at a cheaper price, there is still a huge need for coal, and eventually prices will go up.

“George Soros spent millions of dollars and multiple years helping to driving down price of coal,” said H. Sterling Burnett, research fellow and managing editor, at the Heartland Institute. “If he buys enough stock to have controlling interests in these coal businesses, closes them down and leaves the coal in the ground, we might accept that he is a true believer, that his investment was all about stopping climate change and saving the environment."

“But my suspicion is that he helped to drive stocks down, bought as many shares as he can, and, when stocks rebound, he can sell his shares and make a huge profit.”

[seniortrader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.437.809 von DomRuinart am 19.08.15 18:53:59

Jetzt gehts aber mal richtig ab nach oben. 35% short interest. Das tut weh

[DomRuinart]

Wie gesagt: it's not over yet:

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), Arch Coal Inc (ACI) Stocks Up On Chinese Confusion

Confusion over China’s calculation of carbon emissions has sent coal stocks soaring today, while coal prices are still low

By: Micheal Kaufman
Published: Aug 20, 2015 at 12:51 pm EST

Coal stocks in the US are soaring today after a research report pointed out that calculation of China’s carbon emissions may be incorrect.

China accounted for around 70% of growth in carbon emissions globally, from producing cement and burning fuels, during 2010 and 2012. The current formula uses a global average for the carbon content in coal. However, testing the type of coal used in China, scientists found out that it produces 40% lower carbon emissions than previously believed. Tests were run on 602 coal samples while carbon content from more than 4,000 mines was considered as part of the study. Emission factors were found to be 40% lower, on average, than the values used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Coal in China contains relatively higher ash, lowering the carbon content ratio. It results in lower environmentally-harmful carbon emissions. During the period 2000 to 2013, China’s carbon emissions were overestimated by nearly three gigatons, according to the research. Miscalculations account for 10% of global carbon emissions in 2013, the study points out.

Carbon emissions and its role in climate change have shifted public opinion in favor of natural gas, as the preferred resource for electricity generation. In addition, weak demand from China has also weighed down on coal prices, adding to the US coal industry’s views.

Investors of coal stocks have received the possibility of overestimated Chinese carbon emissions positively, sending coal stocks significantly higher in today’s trading session. Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE:ACI), a US coal miner, traded as high as $3.87 today, marking a gain of over 60%. The stock is currently trading 40% higher at $3.19, as of 12:07 PM EDT.

Investors of Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU), the largest US coal producer, are also having a field day as the stock is currently trading 25% higher at $1.75, as of 12:08 PM EDT.

The upward ticks in coal stocks come after George Soros, a billionaire investor, revealed a stake in Arch Coal and Peabody Energy in a securities filing on August 14.

Quelle: Bidness ETC

[DomRuinart]

Squeeeeeeze!

Here's What's Fueling Peabody Energy Corporation's 40% Surge Today

Worries of a possible bankruptcy at Peabody Energy Corporation seem to be fading.

What: Shares of Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) rocketed higher in early morning trading, up more than 40% by midmorning. Fueling today's rise is a report that it's hired a bank to help restructure its debt, and a whole lot of short covering.

So what: Yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg reported that Peabody Energy had hired investment bank Lazard to advise the company on how it should restructure its $6.3 billion in debt. It's a restructuring that would be handled outside of bankruptcy, according to the report. The report also said that the company is talking with creditors on ways to cut its debt, including debt-for-equity swaps or convertible notes.

With bankruptcy seemingly off the table, at least for now, short-sellers are scurrying for the exits. With 34.5% of the company's outstanding shares sold short, this run to the exit is leading to a lot of buying, which is sending shares skyrocketing.

Now what: Peabody isn't out of the woods just yet. The company has a mountain of debt to still overcome, and any debt-for-equity swaps could lead to some serious dilution for current investors. Furthermore, the coal market isn't yet showing any signs of healing. Investors really should just watch this one from the sidelines, as Peabody's stock will likely continue to be very, very volatile and could still end up stopping at zero before all is said and done.

[Edison09]

Bin heute von Arch coal mit über 200% plus raus und habe mein Gewinn nun hier investiert. bin mir sicher das die auch so ein run machen wird.Das Volumen war heute Gigantisch der dicke Order mit über 650.000 Stk zu 2,29$ wurde beseitigt ein Kauforder mit 50.000 Stk folgte die letzen 20min totale kaufpanik.morgen geht die Party weiter mein Ziel morgen 3,20$:€))))

[Edison09]

Na läuft doch ;€€))) schon über 16mio Aktien gehandelt.

[Edison09]

Hört sich doch ganz gut an.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3474516-peabody-energy-will-…

[keusix]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.520.198 von Edison09 am 30.08.15 18:43:41

gerade über jandaya.de gelaufen:

Hot Stocks/Gewinner (vorbörslich): Peabody Energy +12,97% bei $2,70 - Restrukturierung der milliardenschweren Verbindlichkeiten
Peabody Energy Corporation 22:03:43 2,39 $ 4,82%
vor 18 Min (12:46) - Echtzeitnachricht

mal schauen was der tag so bringt

[Edison09]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.524.131 von keusix am 31.08.15 13:08:01

Ach mit 20 Stücke auf 2,70 gezogen

Wir sollten uns nicht von der vorbörse verleiten lassen.
Letze Woche ist Arch coal vorbörslich 35% abgesackt und hat das im regulieren Handel innerhalb 10 min wieder ausgeglichen.
Mein Ziel diese Woche 5$ das wird aber sehr turbulent.

[Edison09]

Arch coal schon über 10$ da bin etwas zu früh raus aber hier passiert mir das nicht nochmal.
Hoffe wir schaffen endlich den Sprung über 2,70$ sonst verlieren gleich wieder alle die Geduld und nehmen Gewinne mit,

[Petronius]

SALVE!

Der rasante Anstiegt vor Wochen erscheint nun wie ein böser Push. Eine Investmentbank als Berater und ein Gross-Spekulant angeblich investiert, schon 100% Kursgewinn. Nun, wir sind wieder am Startpunkt zurück. Gehe davon aus, dass 1 USD getestet wird.

Bei Erholung der Ölpreises ist Peabody wie ein Optionsschein!!!
Liege auf der Lauer.

Der Wert steckt im Wikifolio Peakoil OGC:
http://www.wikifolio.com/de/peakoil

Petronius

[R-BgO]

New Study: We’re Nowhere Near Peak Coal Use In China And India

Posted By: Frank HolmesPosted date: September 16, 2015 02:24:17 PMIn: BusinessNo Comments


New Study: We're Nowhere Near Peak Coal Use In China And India by Frank Holmes

Resource investors, take note: By 2025, just 10 years from now, energy consumption in Asia will increase a whopping 31 percent. A whole two-thirds of that demand, driven largely by China and India, will be for fossil fuels, most notably coal.

That’s according to a new research piece by financial services group Macquarie, which writes that the estimated rise in fossil fuel demand is equivalent of “three times Saudi Arabia’s current (all-time-high) oil production.”




Macquarie’s research is in line with BP’s “Energy Outlook 2035,” released earlier this year, which predicts that more than half of the world’s energy consumption will come from China and India by the year 2035.

Many readers might approach this news with a healthy dose of skepticism. Haven’t we been told that fossil fuels are falling out of favor? Aren’t governments placing caps on coal use to appease environmentalists and climate change crusaders?

It’s true that coal demand in China has declined a huge 6 percent so far in 2015, the result of anti-air pollution laws that temporarily restricted not just coal use but also factory operations and the amount of driving you can do. Last month I shared a striking photo of a man cycling through Beijing, a brilliant blue sky overhead—something I’ve personally never seen in my 25 years of visiting the city. As most people know, Beijing is notorious for its noxious yellow haze, and the government has been pressured lately to act. In Shanghai, authorities plan to close and relocate 150 factories in preparation for the proposed Shanghai Disneyland, the thinking being that the “Happiest Place on Earth” must have clear blue skies.

I think we all agree that clean air is preferable to smog, but there needs to be a balanced approach to environmental policy that’s also business-friendly.

“Coal producers within China are definitely facing a consistent push by the government for clean energy,” says Xian Liang, portfolio manager of our China Region Fund (USCOX).

To get a better sense of the biblical quantity of raw materials China currently consumes, check out this infographic courtesy of Visual Capitalist.


Can India Pick Up China’s Slack?

Today, China and India collectively consume about 60 percent of all coal produced in the world. In absolute terms, consumption is expected to continue expanding as their populations balloon and the energy-thirsty middle class expands. In other words, as the energy pie gets much bigger, each slice should likewise grow.

By 2025, Macquarie writes, coal will still play a dominant role in China’s energy mix.




It’s possible that if China’s coal consumption dramatically declines, India will be there to fill the hole. Macquarie estimates that by 2025, India’s energy demand will rise 71 percent, with coal taking the lead among oil, gas, hydro, nuclear and others. The south Asian country is already the second-largest importer of thermal coal, and it might very well surpass China in the coming years. Macquarie writes:

Although all energy use will rise [in India], coal is the major theme as consumption and local production are both set to almost double by 2025 on the back of large-scale coal power plant construction plans.

The group adds that, unlike China, India has no present interest in reigning in its use of coal. Most emerging markets, India included, recognize that coal is an extremely affordable and reliable source of energy, necessary to drive economic growth.

Even if these predictions don’t come to fruition, the consensus is that we haven’t yet seen peak coal use in Asia. Estimates vary depending on the agency, but everyone seems to agree that demand in the medium-term will rise before it retreats. A 2014 MIT study even suggests that Chinese coal consumption could rise more than 70 percent between 2012 and 2040.


Follow the Smart Money Money
With prices at multi-year lows and coal producers under pressure, some big name investors have used this as an opportunity to accumulate shares in depressed stocks. Recently I shared with you that influential billionaire investor George Soros just took a $2-million position in coal producers Peabody Energy and Arch Coal.

Maybe he’s on to something, if Macquarie’s research turns out to be accurate.

No one can deny that fossil fuels, and coal in particular, face many headwinds right now, including government policies intended to limit their use. The strong U.S. dollar has created havoc for commodities such as oil and coal, just as it has for American companies with business activities in foreign countries. And with many central banks around the globe continuing to devalue their currencies against the dollar, a strong greenback might be the “new normal” for a while.

Also like oil, coal is facing oversupply issues, as producers had not anticipated a slowdown in emerging markets.

But there and elsewhere, coal will continue to play a vital role in providing affordable, reliable energy for decades to come.

[R-BgO]

15:1 reverse-split umgesetzt, bin mit meinem Erinnerungsstück rausgeflogen

[R-BgO]

heute hat Arch Coal Insolvenzantrag gestellt;

mal sehen, ob und wann Peabody nachzieht...

[destresseddebt]

mal sehen
heute ist die Aktie 25 % höher

[destresseddebt]

vielleichtr aber eher die bonds:



http://seekingalpha.com/article/3952486-peabody-energys-seni…



Why Peabody Energy's Senior Creditors Are Trying To Steal The Company

Mar. 3, 2016 2:35 PM ET
|
About: Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), Includes: COG, NGLOY




Courage & Conviction Investing


Courage & Conviction Investing
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Summary


•I share the quarterly production of the top forty U.S. natural gas producers.

•I share the cash flow (or lack thereof) of the top forty U.S. natural gas producers.

•I poignantly point out that Cabot Oil and Gas has a higher enterprise value than the entire U.S. coal industry and yet, Cabot controls 2% of U.S. natural gas production.


I'm writing another update where I share a great deal of quantitative research that I compiled. As a frustrated Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) bondholder, I am writing to share my theory as to why some of Peabody Energy's first lien creditors, notably Franklin Templeton as we learned on March 1, 2016 from Bloomberg, are pushing for Peabody to file chapter 11. My view is it is very straightforward - Senior creditors want to steal the company from the 2nd Lien creditors and unsecured creditors.

If the 1st Lien term loan holders and now newly minted first lien creditors, after Peabody tapped its revolver in early February 2016, can persuade a bankruptcy judge to value Peabody at a low multiple to trough EBITDA (during the worst coal cycle in decades), of say 3 to 5 times, then effectively they would control one hundred percent of the company post bankruptcy and unencumbered by the $4.5 billion (face value) of unsecured debt and $1 billion 2nd Lien secured debt (face value).

Unfortunately, I'm am not close enough to the situation as I haven't worked on a fixed income trading desk since 2011 and I have no access to Peabody's management team to glean a better sense of how negotiations with creditors are progressing. That said, what is ironic is that over the past month, the equity of major commodity producers have rallied substantially [see Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), Glencore (OTCPK:GLNCY), Anglo American (OTCPK:NGLOY), Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Vale (NYSE:VALE)]. More recently and more relevant to Peabody there has been a stealth rally taking place in the pure play natural gas names.

Please allow me to walk the jury through my thought process as I am in a state of cognitive dissonance. Specifically, I can't for the logical life of me work out how the collective natural gas-centric enterprise values of U.S. producers is upwards of 20 to 50 times plus the collective market values of the entire U.S. coal industry. And yes, I have dug into the weeds to appreciate the nuances that electricity demand only accounts for approximately 33% of total natural gas demand (when prices are low like the present day).


Exhibit A

Enclosed below is the forward curve for natural gas as of this morning, March 3, 2016, compliments of the CME Group. As the readers can clearly see, spot prices are currently $1.70 mm/Btu and speculators have priced summer natural gas at less than $2.10 mm/Btu. For perspective, PV-10 accounting is a very popular valuation metric that is disclosed by many oil and gas companies within their annual reports.

In 2015, the input price for natural gas valuations was $2.63 mm/Btu and oil was in the mid $50s. This is down sharply from 2014 when natural gas was $4.35 mm/Btu and oil was $95 per barrel. Fast forward to today and natural gas has averaged roughly $2 mm/Btu YTD 2016. Notwithstanding PowerPoint slides, no one is making money in the natural gas industry at $2 mm/Btu (I have the data within this write up to prove it).

So I find it puzzling that Cabot Gas (NYSE:COG) and EQT (NYSE:EQT) both essentially pure play natural gas players were able to raise substantial equity capital in recent weeks. Cabot raised $1 billion by selling 50 million shares at $20 and EQT raised approximately $450 million if underwriters end up exercising their overallotment option. I find it puzzling with a $1.70 mm/Btu natural gas backdrop that investors were willing to pony up $1 billion, bringing COG's enterprise value to north of $11 billion in this environment.

If we were to value Peabody Energy's first lien debt at $0.40 on the dollar to reflect where the term loan debt is trading, $0.05 on the dollar for the second lien debt and $0.03 on the dollar for the unsecured debt, and $50 million for its equity, Peabody's collective market to market valuation is currently approximately $1 billion (backing out Peabody's net cash).

For perspective, Cabot produced 1.5 Bcf/d of natural gas or approximately 2% of U.S. production (using an industry wide figure of 73 Bcf/d). Incidentally, Cabot generated negative free cash flow in 2015 when prices averaged $2.63 Bcf. Yes, I get it that the basins where Cabot operates in had lower realized prices. However, a company with 2% market share lives in the same world where natural gas prices are $1.70 mm/Btu as does Peabody Energy. I have to suspend my disbelief and natural gas investors are wearing rosy colored glasses.





Source: CME Group

Exhibit B

We all know that natural gas inventories sit at close to record levels for this time of year. They are about equal to 2012 levels as we can see below. We all know that this winter was abnormally warm given the severe El Nino weather patterns, DUC wells got connected in Q4 2015 in the Marcellus region, and many producers were optimistic they would get lucky and get a cold winter. By the way, it is my understanding, dry natural gas wells can be temporarily shut in without risking permanently impairing the wells.




Exhibit C

Next, let's look at natural gas burn rates using EIA data. Clearly, utility owners that operate a diverse fleet of generation have shifted as much generation as possible towards natural gas given the lowest prices in 20 years.

Electric Burn Rate Data (Source: EIA)




Exhibit D

Extremely low prices tend to create less incentive for producers to increase natural gas production and eventually (especially in the face of steady demand) when inventories realign we know what happens to prices. Incidentally, look at the sharp natural gas price recovery in Q4 2012 and throughout 2013 after producers' balanced supply with demand. I find it ironic that equity investors are optimistic about natural gas prices rebounding smartly and have somewhat priced equities accordingly, yet the market is pricing coal as if natural gas will be $2 mm/Btu forever. You can't have it both ways.


Natural Gas Prices (2012 - 2015) (Source: EIA)




Exhibit E

Next, let's look at how natural gas demand has grown 5 Bcf/d from 2012 to 2015. Clearly, higher natural power burn has been a driver, but overall, the demand story is compelling. I am not even going to get into the demand growth driven by natural gas export pipelines to Mexico now about 3 Bcf/d and Cheniere's (NYSEMKT:LNG) LNG exports slowly ramping up.

Natural Gas Consumption by segment (Source: EIA)




Exhibit F

Top 40 Natural Gas Producers

Enclosed below, here are the quarterly production levels for the top forty U.S. producers. In aggregate, the top forty producers reported production that has been relatively stable. However, the devil is in the details and outside of the Marcellus and Utica regions, we aren't witnessing material production growth. This information is up for debate, but I would argue that production is flat lining and then peaking.

Moreover, if you look at the sharp declines in natural gas rigs counts and significant FY16 CAPEX cuts, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that natural production could easily decline 5% to 10% towards the back half of 2016. By the way, there still isn't enough takeaway capacity in the Northeast and the New York environmentalists are fighting to block trunk lines from running through New York.








Exhibit G

Lastly, look at the mostly cumulative cash flow burn of the top 40 natural gas producers. Dividends are sacrosanct, so the majors would prefer to maintain dividends (or cut them less) and therefore we have witnessed major FY16 CAPEX cut announcements. Notwithstanding the major integrated names, the cash flow generation of non-majors has been abysmal. Moreover, many of these producers benefited from well time hedges in 2015, which masked sharply deteriorating cash flow burn rates. Again, outside of PowerPoint slides decks, most shale players don't generate any free cash flow (on an all in sustaining basis) when prices are this low.

Oil and Gas CAPEX







Concluding Thoughts

It is crystal clear to me that the cumulative industry wide mark to market enterprise value of the U.S. coal industry is incredibly undervalued relative to the natural gas universe adjusted for its mark to market enterprise values. How can Cabot Oil and Gas have an enterprise value that far exceeds the cumulative value of the entire U.S. coal industry? Remember, Cabot only control 2% of the U.S. natural gas production.


Take a step back, of course, the unscrupulous 1st lien Peabody Energy creditors want to steal the company from other creditors and equity holders. The severe panic driven by the lowest natural gas prices in twenty years, the threat of the 2017 Supreme Court's interpretation of the Clean Power Plan, and lobbying of well-funded environmental groups to ensnare coal companies in bankruptcy have created this moment.

As an unsecured bondholder, I can only hope that Peabody's management will fight tooth and nail to keep Peabody out of bankruptcy. Clearly, if the equity and debt markets are forward-looking discounting machines then they are implicitly forecasting natural gas prices to normalize to the $2.75 mm/Btu-$3 mm/Btu. Otherwise, the cumulative universe of pure play natural gas producers are incredibly overvalued. Which one is it?

Disclosure: I am/we are long PEABODY UNSECURED BONDS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks

[seniortrader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.899.463 von destresseddebt am 04.03.16 09:36:19

Das schöne ist ja, dass über ein Drittel der floating shares short gehalten wird. Und eine Firma die täglich mehrmals in die Pleite geredet wird, kann sich halt auch mal verzehnfachen, wenn der Wind dreht. Und dann fließt halt gewaltig Blut. Mal sehen, wie das ausgeht......

[destresseddebt]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.902.475 von seniortrader am 04.03.16 13:29:53

Zitat von seniortrader: Das schöne ist ja, dass über ein Drittel der floating shares short gehalten wird. Und eine Firma die täglich mehrmals in die Pleite geredet wird, kann sich halt auch mal verzehnfachen, wenn der Wind dreht. Und dann fließt halt gewaltig Blut. Mal sehen, wie das ausgeht......

nochmals 7 % plus heute,
woher weisst du das, dass 30% shorts draussen sind?

[seniortrader]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.905.208 von destresseddebt am 04.03.16 16:46:19

Zitat von destresseddebt:

Zitat von seniortrader: Das schöne ist ja, dass über ein Drittel der floating shares short gehalten wird. Und eine Firma die täglich mehrmals in die Pleite geredet wird, kann sich halt auch mal verzehnfachen, wenn der Wind dreht. Und dann fließt halt gewaltig Blut. Mal sehen, wie das ausgeht......

nochmals 7 % plus heute,
woher weisst du das, dass 30% shorts draussen sind?

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/btu/short-interest

[destresseddebt]

super Seite Danke

[destresseddebt]

super Seite Danke

übrigens Bonds handeln bei ca. 5-6% was zeigt wie heiss aber der Trade ist

A1G91Y

[tantalos11]

Mann was ist den mit dem großen Kohleförderer los....leider kenn ich mich zu wenig mit amerikanischen Gesetzen aus jedoch könnte man mit den Bonds und der Aktie viel Geld machen wenn alles gut ausgeht...

[R-BgO]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/03/peabody-energy-warns-bankru…

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.116.363 von R-BgO am 05.04.16 00:21:28

&quot;Sie haben Ihr Ziel erreicht&quot;:

April 13, 2016

AMID PROLONGED INDUSTRY DOWNTURN, PEABODY ENERGY TAKES MAJOR STEP TO STRENGTHEN LIQUIDITY AND REDUCE DEBT THROUGH CHAPTER 11 PROTECTION

 Peabody Energy Corporation and majority of U.S. entities file for voluntary Chapter 11 protection
 Operations expected to continue in ordinary course of business; Australian platform not part of filing
 Action targeted toward significant debt reduction and improvement in fixed charges
 Comprehensive approach intended to reposition company for long term success
 Secured/unsecured lender group led by Citigroup to provide $800 million in debtor-in-
possession financing

ST. LOUIS, April 13 –

Taking a major step to strengthen liquidity and reduce debt amid an unprecedented industry downturn, Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU) today voluntarily filed petitions under Chapter 11 for the majority of its U.S. entities in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri. Through this process, the company intends to reduce its overall debt level, lower fixed charges, improve operating cash flow and position the company for long-term success, while continuing to operate under the protection of the court process.

All of the company’s mines and offices are continuing to operate in the ordinary course of business and are expected to continue doing so for the duration of the process. No Australian entities are included in the filings, and Australian operations are continuing as usual.

“This was a difficult decision, but it is the right path forward for Peabody. We begin today to build a highly successful global leader for tomorrow,” said Peabody President and Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kellow. “Through today’s action, we will seek an in-court solution to Peabody’s substantial debt burden amid a historically challenged industry backdrop.

This process enables us to strengthen liquidity and reduce debt, build upon the significant operational achievements we’ve made in recent years and lay the foundation for long-term stability and success in the future.”

In connection with the process, Peabody has obtained $800 million in debtor-in- possession financing facilities, which were arranged by Citigroup and include participation of a number of the company’s secured lenders and unsecured noteholders. The facilities include a $500 million term loan, a $200 million bonding accommodation facility and a cash collateralized $100 million letter of credit facility, and are subject to court approval as well as limitations as set out in the company’s filings. In addition to the company’s existing cash position, Peabody believes that it has sufficient liquidity to operate its business worldwide post-petition and to continue the flow of goods and services to its customers in the ordinary course.

Peabody also announced today that the planned sale of the company’s New Mexico and Colorado assets was terminated after the buyer was unable to complete the transaction.

The factors affecting the global coal industry in recent years have been unprecedented. Industry pressures in recent years include a dramatic drop in the price of metallurgical coal, weakness in the Chinese economy, overproduction of domestic shale gas and ongoing regulatory challenges.

Still, multiple third-party estimates project that both the U.S. and global coal demand will stabilize. U.S. gas prices are projected to rebound from recent lows. Globally, thermal coal is expected to continue to fuel hundreds of existing coal generating plants as well as scores more that are under construction. Coal currently fuels approximately 40 percent of global electricity and is expected to be an essential source of global electricity generation and steel making for many decades to come.

“A company like Peabody with safe, efficient operations will be well positioned to serve coal demand that will continue in the United States and around the world,” said Kellow. “We are a leading producer and reserve holder in our core regions of the Powder River Basin, Illinois Basin and Australia. Peabody has a new management team, outstanding workforce, unmatched asset base and strong underlying operational performance that represent a key driver in the company’s future success.”

In 2015, all of Peabody’s U.S. operations were cash-flow positive, the Australian platform earned more than the prior year despite lower prices for coal and the company's administrative expenses and capital investments were at the lowest levels in nearly a decade.

Kellow noted that, throughout this process, the company will continue to be guided by its mission and values that include safety, customer focus, leadership, people, excellence, integrity and sustainability. The company also continues to take aggressive steps to improve the business with actions consistent with its core priorities in the operational, financial and portfolio areas.

This process does not change Peabody’s approach toward best practices in mining and its focus on sustainability to create high-quality land restoration for generations that follow. The company sees its land restoration as an essential part of the mining process, takes great pride in the work it does and has been consistently recognized for these programs. In addition, Peabody intends to continue to work with the applicable state governments and federal agencies to meet its reclamation obligations.

Peabody has filed pleadings, referred to as “first day” motions, with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court. These motions are expected to enable the company to continue, among other things, paying employee wages and providing healthcare and other benefits without interruption.

Also, as required under New York Stock Exchange regulations, trading in shares of the company stock on the NYSE is expected to be suspended immediately.

[destresseddebt]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 51.905.937 von destresseddebt am 04.03.16 17:32:31

jeztzt wieder bei 14%

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.185.367 von R-BgO am 14.04.16 08:39:54

Thread: Peabody - auferstanden nach Insolvenz

[R-BgO]

block and gap

[R-BgO]

Friedhof der Insolvenzen