Original-Research

Aves One AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG
ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: EUR 12.10
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger; Cosmin Filker

Profitability expected to be achieved this year; EUR1 billion in assets under management projected for 2019; Very attractive rail deal from the VTG/Nacco transaction

Aves One AG was once again able to grow dynamically in the 2017 financial year and sales rose by 86.5% to EUR53.43 million (previous year: EUR26.65 million). The reason for this dynamic growth in sales was the further expansion of the asset portfolio, in particular the acquisition of ERR Wien in August 2016 (now: Aves Rail GmbH), which led to an increase in the freight car fleet from 331 to 4,308. Overall, assets under management (AuM) rose from EUR445.40 million (2016) to EUR448.46 million (2017) and the gross return rose to 11.9% (previous year: 6.4%) in the same period. The acquisition of Aves Rail at the end of 2016 had a significant impact here.
The increase in sales also led to further increases in earnings. Due to its lean management approach and favourable debt financing, the business model's costs develop degressively and result in high scalability. An EBITDA margin of 54.5% was achieved in the 2017 financial year (previous year: 35.9%) and EBITDA stood at EUR29.11 million (previous year: EUR10.29 million), although the effects as at the balance sheet date mentioned previously limit comparability.

The acquisition of extensive rail assets as part of the VTG/Nacco deal is expected to make a significant contribution to the future development of the company (see page 6). The background to this is an antitrust requirement for VTG to sell at least 30% of the Nacco assets acquired to a third party. In addition, the antitrust authorities imposed extensive conditions on the characteristics of the third party, which led to a greatly reduced number of bidders. The new buyer was not allowed to have a very large market position and had to have experience and assets in the rail sector. As a result, large financial investors and major competitors were excluded from the bidding process. Aves One was thus able to acquire the assets at what we view as a fair price (approx. EUR300 million). The acquired portfolio appears to be extremely attractive and fits very well into Aves One's existing portfolio. The assets are primarily located in Germany and have a high EBITDA margin of over 75%. The assets are about 50% freight cars and 50% rail tank cars, which also have a comparatively young average age of about 15 years. The portfolio is particularly attractive because it is already fully let, which is not typical in other portfolio transactions. We believe that this transaction will add significant value for Aves One's shareholders and should lead to the company's target of EUR1 billion in assets under management being achieved by 2019.
Due to the significant increase in assets, we expect sales growth of 44.1% to EUR77.02 million in 2018 (previous year: EUR53.43 million), followed by sales growth of 52.5% to EUR117.48 million in 2019 and further growth of 10.7% to EUR130.04 million in 2020. All asset classes are expected to contribute to sales growth in accordance with their weighting.
Due to the strong sales growth, we expect dynamic EBITDA growth with a steady expansion of margins. We expect Group EBITDA to increase by 86.6% to EUR54.31 million in 2018, leading to an improvement in margins to 70.5% (previous year: 54.5%). This trend is expected to continue in the following years, with growth of 57.7% to EUR85.62 million in 2019 (72.9% EBITDA margin) and further growth of 14.0% to EUR97.65 million in 2020 (75.1% EBITDA margin).

Due to the dynamic development of EBITDA and declining depreciation, amortisation and interest rates, the net margin should gradually increase. We expect net income for 2018 to be positive, amounting to EUR3.76 million in 2018 after EUR-13.35 million (adjusted for non-cash currency effects) in 2017. In the following years we expect net income to increase to EUR7.69 million (2019) and EUR9.18 million (2020). We therefore expect Aves One to achieve high profitability in the medium term.

The VTG/Nacco transaction, which we believe creates significant value, should enable the company's growth targets of 1 billion in AuM to be achieved as early as 2019. Based on our DCF model, we have calculated a target price of EUR12.10 (previously: EUR9.10) and have again issued a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/16821.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
[e-mail]
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Rating: BUY
Analyst: GBC