Wirecard, Tesla, Thyssen – Adventskracher
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The Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner
Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor
I confess that my Thanksgiving was quite un-American. OK, family was involved, but there were only two of us – one of our four sons lives in San Francisco (the others live in Europe) and came to visit me in Newport Beach for the holiday. However, we neither had turkey, nor did we discuss U.S. politics, nor did we watch American football on TV. Rather, we were first glued to my iPad cheering on our (European) football club Eintracht Frankfurt to a much-needed surprise away win at Arsenal London in the Europa League, and then enjoyed a late, long lunch at an Korean barbecue place in a nondescript strip mall in Irvine. All in all, it was a perfect day!
Actually, this Thanksgiving holiday was also already the eleventh in the current U.S. economic expansion, which became the longest ever last July when it overtook the 120 months-long 1991-2001 expansion. Nonetheless, following a period of elevated recession angst during the summer, most investors now seem to have concluded that, barring some bolt out of the blue, this long expansion has at least one more Thanksgiving to run: The S&P 500 is up about 10% from early August, the yield curve is no longer inverted, and Treasury yields are up 35 basis points from this year’s low three months ago. Markets are clearly playing the soft-landing-on-an-extended-runway theme. Are they right in doing so?