Original-Research

Cenit AG (von GBC AG): Buy

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Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 19.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Q1 2023: Development in line with expectations; forecasts and price target confirmed
 
As expected, CENIT AG achieved a visible jump in sales in the first quarter of 2023 with an increase in sales of 22.7 % to EUR 43.42 million (PY: EUR 35.40 million). Inorganic effects contributed particularly to this development. ISR Information Products, which was acquired on 31 May 2022, was not included in the figures for the first quarter of the previous year. We assume an inorganic effect of approximately EUR 6.0 million in connection with the ISR acquisition. In addition, CENIT AG acquired mip Management Information Partner GmbH (mip for short) as of 30 January 2023, which we estimate to have contributed revenue of approximately EUR 0.7 million in the first quarter of 2023. In total, we estimate that the M&A-related increase in revenue amounts to approx. EUR 6.7 million, so that CENIT AG, adjusted for this effect, is likely to have generated sales growth of approx. 3.7 % to around EUR 36.7 million.
 
Parallel to the strong increase in turnover, the EBIT rose to EUR 0.01 million (previous year: EUR -0.39 million). The bottom line for CENIT AG is a slightly negative result after tax of EUR -0.07 million (previous year: EUR -0.60 million). In the following quarters, as in previous years, the break-even threshold should be exceeded again. On the positive side, it should be emphasised that CENIT AG has net liquidity of EUR 2.41 million, even after the acquisition of ISR (purchase price: EUR 27.88 million). Bank liabilities of EUR 22.19 million are offset by liquid funds of EUR 24.60 million. CENIT AG thus has good flexibility with regard to the implementation of the further planned inorganic growth strategy.  
With the publication of the Q1 2023 figures, which were in line with expectations, the CENIT management has confirmed the forecasts for the current fiscal year 2023. The updated guidance now expects consolidated sales in a range of EUR 175.00 to 180.00 million and an EBIT of around EUR 9.0 to 9.5 million. In the 2023 annual report, sales revenues of around EUR180 million and an EBIT of more than EUR9.5 million were envisaged. According to the CENIT management, the newly formulated guidance is not to be regarded as a forecast adjustment, whereby the upper values of the guidance range are still targeted.
 
Also on a full-year basis in 2023, the expected revenue growth of between 8 % to 11 % is likely to be due in particular to inorganic effects. The first-time full-year inclusion of ISR sales is expected to result in an additional revenue contribution of around EUR10 million. Furthermore, the additional revenue contribution of the acquired mip should be around EUR 3.0 million, so that the inorganic effect adds up to a total of EUR 13.0 million. In our opinion, organic revenue growth of 3.6% should be generated in parallel, so that we continue to expect total revenue of EUR181.61 million for 2023. In view of the order backlog, which at EUR 67.03 million (previous year: EUR 54.37 million) as at 31 March 2023 was 23.3 % above the previous year's value, this assumption is realistic. Based on the unchanged guidance, we also confirm our EBIT forecast, according to which we expect EBIT of EUR9.80 million for 2023. 
 
The forecasts for the next two financial years 2024 and 2025 also remain unchanged. We continue to be guided here by the 'CENIT 2025' agenda, according to which a sales level of approx. EUR 300 million and an EBIT margin of 8 % to 10 % are expected by 2025. Our forecasts do not take into account the company acquisitions explicitly expected to achieve these goals, which explains the sales gap between our 2025 estimates and the 'CENIT 2025' agenda.
 
Due to the unchanged input, there are also no changes in the result of the DCF valuation model and we confirm our price target of EUR19.75. We continue to assign a BUY rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/26997.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) of completion: 12/05/2023 (08:49 am)
Date (Time) first distribution: 12/05/2023 (10:30 am)

übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Die Cenit Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Minus von -1,42 % und einem Kurs von 13,80EUR auf Tradegate (11. Mai 2023, 22:26 Uhr) gehandelt.

Rating: Buy
Analyst: GBC