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     153  0 Kommentare KKR Releases 2024 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook

    KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2024 mid-year global macro outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA).

    In “Opportunity Knocks,” McVey and his team explain why they believe the current economic cycle has further to run, despite an environment of heightened volatility and political complexity that they envision in the second half of 2024. They also note that diversification and ability to dynamically lean into dislocation will be critical to successfully capitalizing on the compelling investment opportunities that this environment presents. Several factors underpin the team’s constructive outlook, including an encouraging technical backdrop, a belief that we have entered a structurally higher level of productivity in the U.S., a stronger global employment market versus prior cycles, central bank balance sheets that are still plump relative to history, and a surprisingly strong global capex cycle.

    Henry McVey and his team continue to believe that we are still in a Regime Change for investing, one that will be defined by a combination of excess stimulus, heightened geopolitical risks, an uneven energy transition, and ongoing skills mismatch. As a result, they believe that the traditional relationship between stocks and bonds in a portfolio has fundamentally changed, necessitating a different approach to portfolio strategy, including owning more non-correlated assets. They also note that stock-bond correlation has supplanted single-asset volatility as the primary source of volatility in portfolios, an environment unfamiliar to most CIOs.

    In the piece, McVey and his team present high conviction asset allocation picks and pans and important investment themes that they believe can serve as foils in today’s uncertain landscape, including accelerating AI demand for electricity, reorientation of global supply chains, improving labor productivity, and retirement security. They also highlight several notable updates since their 2024 Outlook:

    • Stronger conviction in the importance of owning more non-correlated assets, given a flatter frontier for expected returns amidst heightened portfolio volatility.
    • More pronounced mismatch between energy supply and demand given electrification needs and the growth of energy-intensive users such as data centers, semi fabs, EV battery plants and steel mills.
    • Broadening of earnings growth across sectors and geographies, which we expect will bring more balance to the equity markets.
    • More sustained deficits amidst election volatility, which reinforce our Regime Change thesis and continued belief that the deficit will stabilize at historically wide levels under either U.S. presidential administration.
    • Greater focus on the positive path for productivity, especially in the U.S.
    • Unprecedented demand for worker retraining, as companies seek to fill high-skilled jobs left open by COVID-era retirements as well as ongoing technological advancements.

    McVey and his team also make a number of out-of-consensus calls, which include:

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    KKR Releases 2024 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2024 mid-year global macro outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR’s Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA). In “Opportunity Knocks,” McVey and his team explain why …

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