THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 11.07.2024
Target price: EUR 1.20
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

FY23 out // Softer topline but strong EBITDA; chg.

Topic: NAGA recently reported FY23 figures that came with a slight miss on the topline and a positive
surprise on the bottom line. A D&A one-off makes EBIT look ugly. In detail:
Sales of EUR 39.7m (NAGA standalone), are below prelims of EUR 45.5m resulting from the lower than anticipated avg. revenue per trade of only EUR 4.3 (vs. eNuW: EUR 4.9) and 9.2m transactions (both NAGA standalone).
EBITDA came in higher than expected at EUR 8.4m (vs. prelims: EUR 7.0m), thanks to significantly lower
marketing expenses (EUR 4.6m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.9m), personnel expenses (EUR 6.5m vs eNuW: EUR 7.9m) andR&D costs (EUR 3.4m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.2m) overcompensating for the weaker topline and higher other operating expenses (EUR 9.8m vs. eNuW: EUR 5.9m). EBT of EUR -61m (vs. eNuW: EUR -2.4m), is mainly burdenedone-off amortization to the tune of EUR 57m as a result of the valuation related to the merger with capex.

Looking into 2024, the outlook for the joint Group shines bright: Trading activity of peers that seem to revitalize and cross-selling potentials between NAGA and capex should fuel the number of transactions to15.9m and hence sales to EUR 71.8m, assuming an avg. revenue per trade of EUR 5.0. Synergy effects and
ongoing disciplined spending are expected to additionally drive EBITDA to EUR 11.5m. As we do not expect further meaningful amortizations in FY24, EBIT should come in at EUR 1.6m (eNuW).

Going forward, management has ambitious growth plans expecting to generate USD 250m sales with a 40% EBITDA margin until FY26. While we think this is a rather optimistic scenario, the past has already shown that an incremental positive change of the public markets' sentiment could have an enormous effect on the P&L of NAGA. The leverage of the joint Group could even scale this effect. Still, in our base case scenario we conservatively only anticipating EUR 90m in sales and EBITDA of EUR 19m (22% EBITDA margin), leaving room for positive surprises.

Overall, the revitalization of customer activity in the brokerage space, paired with cross-selling and synergy effects arising from the merger should bode well for NAGA. Details of the growth plan should be unveiled during todayŽs CDM starting at 4pm CEST.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 1.20 based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/30193.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [e-mail]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

transmitted by EQS Group AG.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Zusätzliche Unternehmensinformationen zur The Naga Group Aktie

Die The Naga Group Aktie wird zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung der Nachricht mit einem Plus von +1,43 % und einem Kurs von 0,854 auf Tradegate (11. Juli 2024, 08:12 Uhr) gehandelt.

Auf 7 Tage gesehen hat sich der Kurs der The Naga Group Aktie um +6,76 % verändert. Der Gewinn auf 30 Tage beträgt +0,80 %.

Die Marktkapitalisierung von The Naga Group bezifferte sich zuletzt auf 172,26 Mio..

Rating: Buy
Analyst: