Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report

Swiss Re Ltd / Key word(s): Research Update Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality, says new Swiss Re report 16.09.2024 / 10:00 CET/CEST Report suggests potential excess mortality in the general population of up to 3% for the US by 2033 and 2.5% in the UK, the longest period of elevated peacetime excess mortality in the US Key driver of excess mortality is the lingering impact of COVID-19; both as a direct cause of death, and as a contributor to cardiovascular mortality Reducing the impact of COVID-19 on elderly and vulnerable populations will be key to excess mortality returning to zero Zurich, 16 September 2024 – Four years after the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are still reporting elevated all-cause excess mortality compared with pre-pandemic levels. According to Swiss Re Institute's report The future of excess mortality after COVID-19, if the ongoing impact of the disease is not curtailed, excess mortality rates in the general population may remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the US and 2.5% in the UK by 2033. Paul Murray, CEO L&H Reinsurance at Swiss Re says: "COVID-19 is far from over. The US reported an average of 1500 COVID-19 deaths a week for 2023 – comparable to fentanyl or firearm deaths.[1] If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade. However, excess mortality can return to pre-pandemic levels much sooner. The first step is to get COVID under control, with measures such as vaccinations for the vulnerable. Over the longer term, medical advancements, a return to regular healthcare services, and the adoption of healthier lifestyle choices will be key." Excess mortality is a measure of the number of deaths above an expected level in a given population. Typically, all-cause excess mortality should be around zero, as the major causes of death remain relatively stable over the long-term baseline assumption. Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short-term, reflecting developments such as a large-scale medical breakthrough or the negative impact of a large epidemic. However, as society absorbs these events, excess mortality should revert to the baseline.